The New Age of Politics and Media

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The New Age of Politics and MediaLee Rainie - @lrainieDirector - Internet, Science and Technology ResearchFebruary 16, 2017Flagler College

The New Age of Politics and Media: What the Donald Trump campaign and dawn of the Trump presidency have taught us about the historic shifts in politics and media that have occurred in th

Can you expand on the above: In your talk, what specifically will you be addressing? What can attendees expect to learn?------------------- Lee (or Mr. Rainie) will talk about the latest findings from the Pew Research Center about the state of politics and democratic institutions in the United States, as well as provide updates about the changing news media ecosystem enabled by the internet, mobile connectivity, and social media. He will describe how the campaign and early days of the Trump Administration have shown that major institutions like political parties and the news media have been challenged and changed by a fractured news environment, shifting trust in major institutions, and an increasingly polarized political landscape. He will also draw from his book, Networked: The new social operating system, in describing how unprecedented technology adoption has changed the way that people engage in social and political activities. Attendees will learn about the latest Pew Research data about the state of American politics and media: How does the public think Trump is doing? What excites AND bothers people about the current political climate? Whats happening in the economy and in peoples jobs in the age of swift technological change and globalization? Where are people getting news and information about developments in Washington and around the world? They will learn about how the political and personal landscape is being changed by technology. And they will learn about some of the coming trends and technology and how they might affect politics, institutions, the way that people get, create, and share information. Why is your topic particularly significant now?--------------------- Few societies in history have undergone the kind of change that we are now experiencing and the most recent campaign brought some of these trends into stark relief. Peoples (and groups) capacity to create and share information is unparalleled. The rapidity and breadth of change in science and technology has never occurred before. We have not ever seen the kinds of disruptions in basic institutions that we are witnessing now. Organizations that arose in the Industrial Era big government bureaucracies, big corporations, big media companies, big labor unions are all undergoing significant change. Americans feel a mixture of excitement and apprehension about all this and the Trump effect adds to both those sensibilities. Maybe you will also find it helpful to note that my organization, the Pew Research Center, is a nonpartisan fact tank that informs the public about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping America and the world. It conducts public opinion polling, demographic research, media content analysis and other empirical social science research, now including analysis of big data. The Center does not take policy positions and I am not permitted to be an advocate or partisan in any way. 1

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Three digital technology revolutions in the past generation

4First revolution Internet (90% use it) BroadbandSkews youngerMore upscale by income and educationTilts urban/suburban

5Second revolution Mobile95% have cell phones51% have tablet computers

Smartphones

Skews youngerA bit smaller differences by socio-economic classTilts urban/suburban

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Third revolution Social media

5%69%

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Big change #1) It networked people

Networked IndividualismThe move to looser, far-flung networks

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Personal networks are:More important trustDifferently composed segmented, layeredAssuming new roles

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Big change #2) It networked information

Pew Research danah boydpervasive (real-time + all-time) persistent / visibleportablereplicablepersonal scalableparticipatory searchable linked and unlinkedspreadable COLLAPSED CONTEXTS OF COMMUNICATION

Big change #3) It networked the public square

More nichesMore topics of discussion (and different news agendas)More alliances More argumentsMore DIY workMore disclosureMore surveillance sousveillance coveillance

More people in decision-making spaces crowdsourcing / funding More filtering by algorithms More evidence (but not causation) of everything humans do:Love Altruism Brilliance

HateSelfishness

Stupidity

Big change #4) It networked the political ecosystem

People are more personally empoweredEasier to find like-minded allies, even in tiny nichesEasier to raise money and mobilize

Easier to leap barriers of all kindsEasier to mobilize (maybe even new people) Additive use old methods PLUS new ones

Meanwhile, big changes occur in political culture

The political landscape of 2016Long-term demographic divides in partisanshipMany race, gender, age long pre-dated this electionSome particularly education (sometimes seen as a proxy for class) emerged as a more potent force this cyclePartisan polarization guaranteed Trump a solid floorDeepening ideological divides by party in recent decadesPartisan polarization not confined to policy differences, increasingly tied to media use and its emotional (affective polarization)Mood of the country in recent years increasingly inhospitable to continuity candidates, more open to a change agent

The gender gap in partisan identification% of registered voters who identify asSource: Annual Pew Research Center surveys 1992-2016

Non-whites remain a solidly Democratic constituencyPresidential vote preference, by race and ethnicity

Source: National Election Pool exit polls

Women supported Clinton over Trump by 54% to 42%. This is about the same as the Democratic advantage among women in 2012 (55% Obama vs. 44% Romney) and 2008 (56% Obama vs. 43% McCain). By 53% to 41%, more men supported Trump than Clinton. The advantage for Trump among men is larger than McCain or Romney The gender gap in presidential vote preference is among the widest in exit polls dating back to 1972. However, it is not dramatically higher than in some other recent elections, including the 2000 contest between Bush and Al Gore.

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Wide age divide, though narrower than for Obamas electionsPresidential vote preference, by age

Source: National Election Pool exit polls

Women supported Clinton over Trump by 54% to 42%. This is about the same as the Democratic advantage among women in 2012 (55% Obama vs. 44% Romney) and 2008 (56% Obama vs. 43% McCain). By 53% to 41%, more men supported Trump than Clinton. The advantage for Trump among men is larger than McCain or Romney The gender gap in presidential vote preference is among the widest in exit polls dating back to 1972. However, it is not dramatically higher than in some other recent elections, including the 2000 contest between Bush and Al Gore.

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College grads shift to Democratic Party, as less educated voters move to the GOP

even more pronounced among whites% of registered voters who identify asSource: Annual Pew Research Center surveys 1992-2016

25www.pewresearch.orgA historically wide educational gap in 2016 preferencesPresidential vote preference, by educational attainmentSource: National Election Pool exit polls

Partisan polarization

More Democrats take liberal positions, More Republicans take conservative positionsSource: 2014 Political Polarization in the American Public, 2015 Views of Government

Democrats and Republicans more ideologically divided than in the pastDistribution of Democrats and Republicans on a 10-item scale of political values

Ideological polarization in the American public

It was 64% and 70%, respectively, in 1994!

Heres your bumper sticker.

For comparison, 1994 typical Republican more conservative than 70% of Democrats / now 94%1994 typical Democrat more liberal than 64% of Republicans / now 92%29

Affective polarization also much stronger nowSource: Surveys conducted 1994, 1999, 2004, 2014 and 2015.

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Negative stereotypes about the other side

Source: Surveys conducted Mar 2-28, 2016.

Consistent liberals & conservatives often live in different media worldsSource: 2014 Media Polarization

People want to live with others who share their political views

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Meanwhile, the next technology revolution is underway

The internet will become like electricity less visible, yet more deeply embedded in peoples lives for good and ill

Fourth revolution Internet of Things, Metaverse, Virtual Reality, Artificial Reality, Self-propelling stuff

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Thank you!

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