TNG TC CHIN LC(L THUYT TR CHI)

CHNG 1

5/15/2015 2

T duy chin lc l mt ngh thutvt ln trn i th, vi nhn thcrng, i th cng s c gng lmng nh vy vi mnh.

Avinash Dixit v Barry Nalebuff (1991)

T DUY CHIN LC

5/15/2015 3

CHNG 1. TNG TC CHIN LC

1.1 BI TON PRISONERS DILEMMA (PD)Cu chuyn ca nhng t nhnCnh tranh gia cc thnh vin ca hip hi Taxi ca TPHCM

1.2 TH CN BNG TRONG KINH DOANHNhng ch ln bit suy nghBi ton xc nh a im bn hngCu chuyn tnh bt h

1.3 BI TON M PHN

5/15/2015 4

BN TAY V HNHTNH HUNG PHIM A BEAUTIFUL MIND

Adam Smith cho rng Bn tay v hnh c

ngha l: Trong nn kinh t th trng,

cc c nhn tham gia mun ti a ha

li nhun cho mnh. Ai cng mun th

cho nn v hnh chung thc y s

pht trin v cng c li ch cho c cng

ng.

5/15/2015 5

BN TAY V HNHTNH HUNG PHIM A BEAUTIFUL MIND

Nhng th chng ta c trong ba nkhng phi do tm lng nhn t cangi hng tht, ca ngi lm bnh m,hay ca ngi nu ru m n xutpht t li ch ca chnh bn thn h.

Adam Smith, S giu c ca

cc quc gia, 1776

18:30

5/15/2015 6

Pht biu bi ton :

Gi s, c hai t nhn A v Bb bt v b tnh nghi lin quann mt v git ngi. Mtnhm nhn vin iu tra a 2 ngi ny vo 2 phnggiam bit lp ( ngi nykhng bit ngi kia quytnh nh th no) v bt ua ra cc iu kin nh sau:... (xem hnh)

1.1 BI TON PRISONERS DILEMMA (PD)Cu chuyn ca nhng t nhn

1:13:30

5/15/2015 7

Cu hi : Hai t nhn s hnh x nh th no? Kt cc ca cuc chi ny l g? Cn phng n no tt

hn khng? V d thc t no minh ha cho tnh hung ny?

(-8,-8) (0,-15)(-15,0) (-1,-1)

T nhn A

T nhn BTh ti

Th ti

Im lng

Im lng

1.1 BI TON PRISONERS DILEMMA (PD)Cu chuyn ca nhng t nhn

5/15/2015 8

5/15/2015 9

Bt k t nhn B c lm g i na, th th ti baogi cng l ng p tt nht (best response)cho t nhn A. V ngc li cng tng t nhvy trng thi cn bng: c hai cng th ti.

Chin lc tri/u th (dominant strategy):l mt chin lc tt nht khng ph thuc vohnh vi ca i phng (hay l mt chin lc ttnht ca ngi chi bt k i th a ra chinlc nh th no)

MT S KHI NIM C BNCu chuyn ca nhng t nhn

5/15/2015 10

Cn bng: thut ng dng trong kinh t hc ch nhng tnh th y mi vic ngnguyn v cc TC NHN, trn c s thngtin c c v nhng rng buc phi gnhchu, khng c khuyn khch thay i khoch ca h.

Ni cch khc, th cn bng c s tng hpgia cc k hoch ca cc tc nhn kinh t, chod l nhng c th hay tp hp c th (Hgia nh, doanh nghip, giai cp, nghip on,v.v)

MT S KHI NIM C BNCn bng (Equilibrium)

5/15/2015 11

(Nash Equilibrium, hay cn bng bt hptc non cooperative equilibrium)l th cn bng m , khng mt ngichi no c th ci thin c v th camnh, khi cho trc chin lc ca iphng.

Mi chin lc u l s i ph tt nht(p ng tt nht Best Response) i vichin lc ca ngi kia.

MT S KHI NIM C BNCn bng Nash

5/15/2015 12

Mi mt phi cnh u c gi tr ring ca n,cch duy nht ta hiu ci phi cnh ca ngikhc l ta ri v tr ca ta i sang pha v tr cangi khc nhn thy nhng g m ngi khcang nhn thy.

Nh Gandhi ni: Ba phn t nhng nithng kh v s khng thng cm nhau trn thgii s bin mt nu chng ta bit x chn voi giy ca k i nghch v hiu c quanim lp trng ca h.

CCH CHN CHIN LC

5/15/2015 13

1.1 Cnh tranh gia cc thnh vin ca hip hi Taxi ca TPHCM - Cu hi tho lun

(1) Din gii thit lp ma trnthu hoch ca cc ngi chi.

(2) p ng tt nht, Chin lctri (mnh/yu) ca mi ngichi l g? u l cn bng Nashca cuc chi?

(3) y c phi l tnh hung thlng nan ca nhng ngi tkhng? V sao? Nu c, th u lchin lc th ti, u l chinlc im lng.

5/15/2015 14

1.1 Cnh tranh gia cc thnh vin ca hip hi Taxi ca TPHCM - Cu hi tho lun

(8, 8) (4,10)(10,4) (6, 6)

SAO VIT

HIP HI

1600016000

12000

12000

5/15/2015 15

1.2 Nhng ch ln bit suy nghCu hi tho lun

(1) Din gii thit lp matrn thu hoch ca 2 con ln.

(2) Chin lc tri (u th)ca mi con ln l g? u lcn bng ca cuc chi?

(3) u l ngha thc sca tnh hung ny?

(4) Nu mt vi v d tngt trong thc t

5/15/2015 16

1.2 TH CN BNG TRONG KINH DOANHNhng ch ln bit suy ngh

Pht biu bi ton :Gi s c 6 n v thcn c y ra mi khivan b nhn.

Nh nhn To n ht(6v)

To nhn Nh n (5v) Hai cng nhn: Nh n

(2v), To n (4v) Nhn ri chy n ch

thc n: tn nng lng(0.5 v)

6 n v

5/15/2015 17

Cu hi: Gi s, cc ch ln c kh nng t duy nh

nhng l thuyt gia tr chi, th ch ln no snhn van?

Kt cc ca cuc chi ny l g?

(3.5, 1.5) (0.5, 5)(6, -0.5) (0, 0)

Nhn van

Khng nhn

Nhn van Khng nhn

1.2 TH CN BNG TRONG KINH DOANHNhng ch ln bit suy ngh

5/15/2015 18

Bi hc: p ng tt nht (best response) ca mt

ngi chi ty thuc vo vic d on i th(i tc) s lm g.

Sau v s ln th nghim v sa sai, cc bnc th i dn n mt kt cc c l.

1.2 TH CN BNG TRONG KINH DOANHNhng ch ln bit suy ngh

5/15/2015 19

1.2 TH CN BNG TRONG KINH DOANHBi ton xc nh a im bn hng

Pht biu bi ton :An (A) v Bnh (B) bn gii kht trn b bin Hi An: hc php lp ca hng bt c u trn bi, phi bntheo cng mt gi, khch hng ch mua gii kht tngi bn hng gn nht. t qun hng ca h utrn bi bin?

A

B

5/15/2015 20

Bi hc:D l ca hng kim cng, hay hiu bn tranh,ca hng sch c, rp chiu bng, i l bn xehi, ca hng c hay ni biu din ca nhc,khi cc hot ng tng t tp trung cngnhau, chng s to ra s b tr ln nhau cng pht trin th trng, ngay c khi i lciu cng c ngha l c nhiu cnh tranhhn trong vic chia phn th trng .

1.2 TH CN BNG TRONG KINH DOANHBi ton xc nh a im bn hng

5/15/2015 21

1.2 TH CN BNG TRONG KDCu chuyn tnh bt h

Pht biu bi ton :Della v Jim l mt cp v chng: Della c th ct b mitc di p tuyt ca c mua ci dy eo qu gi chochic ng h c tha t ca Jim. V Jim sn sng bnchic ng h mua mt ci trm gi u cho Della.

Della:

Jim:

Khng bn ng h

Ct ngn tc:

Bn ng h

Gi mi tc di:

(2 ; 1) (0 ; 0)(0 ; 0) (1 ; 2)

5/15/2015 22

Bi hc: Thng l hay nhng nh ch trong gia nh hocx hi c th gip cho cc bn d on v hnh vica nhau, trnh cho h b ri vo s hiu lm hoctrng thi phi cn bng.

Khi cuc chi c nhiu im cn bng, th cc bnphi c cng mt cch hiu cn bng no s cchn.

1.2 TH CN BNG TRONG KINH DOANHCu chuyn tnh bt h

5/15/2015 23

Cn bng trong mt cuc chi l s phi hp ccchin lc p ng tt nht (Best response) ca ccngi chi. Cc chin lc to nn th cn bng ca nhngngi chi l phn ng tt nht i vi nhau.

Cc ngi chi phi chn chin lc sao cho thu hochca mnh l ln nht.

Chin lc cn bng (to nn th cn bng) l chinlc tt nht ca mt ngi chi trong n mang licho ngi thu hoch ln nht (highest pay-off) khi chotrc (bit c) cc la chn chin lc ca i phng.

MT S KHI NIM MI (Cn ghi nh)

5/15/2015 24

1.3 BI TON M PHN Pht biu bi ton : Lamour l mt nh hng ln, c

ting Si gn v mt ba tic ginhring cho cc cp tnh nhn. Nhngdo ch mt ngi u bp thc hin.

Cu hi t ra l liu ngi u bp(B) nn t l bao nhiu giaion u ngi ch (C) chpthun ngay, v m phn khng phibc sang ngy Valentine?

5/15/2015 25

Nguyn tc chung ca cc tr chi vi nhngbc i lun phin l mi ngi chi phi hnhdung c cu tr li trong tng lai ca nhngngi chi khc v s dng chng tnh tonxem bc i tt nht ca anh ta by gi l g. tng ny quan trng n mc ng c coi lmt nguyn tc c bn ca hnh vi chin lc.NHN XA HN V SUY LUN NGC V

1.3 BI TON M PHN Kt lun chung

5/15/2015 26

m phn l c ngha, phi c li ch timtng t trao i.

Tha thun ch t c khi c s trng hp v kvng ca cc bn v ci iu m bn kia cho lchp nhn c.

Khi mt bn c sc mnh m phn ln hn, thiu nh hng n k vng ca i tc v ciiu m anh ta chp nhn; do nh hng ti ktcc ca m phn.

1.3 BI TON M PHN Kt lun chung

5/15/2015 27

i sng kinh t cha ng nhiu tnhhung tng tc chin lc gia cc hng,cc h gia nh, chnh ph v cc i tngkhc. LTTC phn tch cch thc m hai bnhay nhiu bn tham gia, nhng ngi s tcng qua li vi nhau trong mt khung cnhnh trn th trng chng hn, la chnhnh ng hoc chin lc c tc ngchung n mi bn tham gia.

TM TT CHNG 1

5/15/2015 28

Cu trc c bn ca mt tr chi gm cnhng ngi chi, vi cc hnh ng vchin lc khc nhau, v cc v th (thuhoch), m t li nhun hay cc li ch khcm ngi chi c c trong mi kt cc.Khi nim then cht mi l bng thu hoch(v th) trong tr chi, trong th hin ccchin lc v thu hoch hay li nhun canhng ngi chi khc nhau.

TM TT CHNG 1

5/15/2015 29

Mu cht la chn chin lc trong LTTC lnhng ngi chi phi suy ngh v mc ch camnh cng nh ca i th mnh, khng bao gic qun rng, i phng cng lm ging nhmnh.Khi chi tr chi trong kinh t hc hay cc lnhvc khc, gi s rng i th ca bn cng lachn cc phng n ca h. Sau , chn ra chinlc cho bn sao cho li ch ca bn l ti a, lunlun gi nh rng, i th ca bn cng phn tchtng t vi chin lc ca bn.

TM TT CHNG 1

5/15/2015 30

i khi c mt chin lc tri (u th), l mtchin lc tt nht khng ph thuc vo hnh vica i phng. Thng thng, chng ta thy cnbng Nash (cn bng bt hp tc) l hu ch nht.

Cn bng Nash l th cn bng m , khngmt ngi chi no c th ci thin c v th camnh, khi cho trc chin lc ca i phng.i khi, cc bn c th cu kt hoc hp tc vinhau, khi s to ra cn bng hp tc.

TM TT CHNG 1