DAILY I FOREX REPORT 19

TH

FEBRUARY 2013

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Japanese Yen Sinks as G20 Leaves Door Open for BOJ Stimulus

Dollar Waits for Downside Follow-Through, S&P 500 at Risk

Dollar: EUR/USD and USD/JPY Critical after 5 Week USDollar Rally

Japanese Yen Sinks as G20 Leaves Door Open for BOJ Stimulus

Japanese Yen Sinks as G20 Outcome Allows BOJ to Continue Stimulus

EU President’s Comments May Spark Risk Aversion on Budget Uncertainty

The Japanese Yen traded broadly lower against its major counterparts overnight in the wake of the weekend’s G20 summit. The group issued a communiqué that didn’t single out Japan for its efforts to bring down the currency, saying only that “monetary policy should be directed toward domestic price stability and continuing to support economic recovery”. Commenting specifically on currencies, policymakers said, “We will refrain from competitive devaluation [and] will not target our exchange rates for competitive purposes.”

TRADING TIPS

SELL EURUSD

BELOW 1.3311 tgs

1.3297/1.3283 sl

1.3331

BUY USDJPY ABOVE

94.22 tgt 94.36/9.50

SL 94.42

SELL GBPUSD

BELOW 1.5438 tgt

1.5424/1.5410 SL

1.5458

HEADLINES

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 1.3339

HIGH: 1.3379

LOW: 1.3321

CLOSE: 1.3348

EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND : BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD =>. 0000(BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 48(BEARISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 93.76

HIGH: 94.22

LOW: 93.71

CLOSE: 93.98

USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

MACD => 0.02( BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>61(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 1.5476

HIGH: 1.5501

LOW: 1.5438

CLOSE: 1.5470

GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND: BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD => .-0001( BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 40(BEARISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 0.8618

HIGH: 0.8648

LOW: 0.8603

CLOSE: 0.8627

EURGBP LOOKS DOWNWARDS

TREND: BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD =>.001(BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>54(BEARISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY EURGBP CHART

HOURLY USDINDEX CHART

ECONOMIC CALENDER

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 80.6270

HIGH: 80.7270

LOW: 80.5160

CLOSE: 80.6410

USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS

MACD =>0.071(BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>58(BULLISH SIGNAL)

Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes

Sun Feb 17

21:30

NZD Performance Services Index (JAN)

Low 52.6

51.5

Mon Feb 18

CNY Actual FDI (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

-4.2% -4.5%

00:01

GBP Rightmove House Prices (YoY) (FEB)

Medium 1.1%

2.4%

00:01

GBP Rightmove House Prices (MoM) (FEB)

Low 2.8%

0.2%

00:30

AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) (JAN)

Low 10.8%

17.9%

00:30

AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (JAN)

Low -2.4%

2.2%

06:00

JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (JAN F)

Medium -26.4%

-26.1%

09:00

EUR Bank of Spain Publishes Bad Loans

Data (Dec)

Medium 10.44%

11.38%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Current Account s.a. (euros) (DEC)

Low 13.9B

15.9B

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Current Account n.s.a. (euros) (DEC)

Low 27.0B

20.8B

13:00

EUR EU President Van Rompuy Speaks to Parliament on Proposed Budget

High

14:30

EUR ECB's Draghi Speaks at EU Parliament

High

23:50

JPY BOJ Minutes for Meeting on Jan. 21-22

High

Tue Feb 19

00:30

AUD RBA Policy Meeting - February Minutes

High

05:00

JPY Leading Index

(DEC F) Medium

93.4

05:00

JPY Coincident Index (DEC F)

Low

92.7

05:30

JPY Tokyo Department Store Sales (YoY) (JAN)

Low

-1.1%

05:30

JPY Nationwide Department Store Sales (YoY) (JAN)

Low

-1.3%

07:00

EUR EU 25 New Car Registrations (JAN)

Low

-16.3%

10:00

EUR German ZEW Survey (Economic

Sentiment) (FEB)

High

35 31.5

10:00

EUR German ZEW Survey (Current Situation) (FEB)

Medium

9 7.1

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone ZEW Survey (Economic

Sentiment) (FEB)

Medium

31.2

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Construction Output w.d.a. (YoY) (DEC)

Low

-4.7%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Construction Output s.a. (MoM) (DEC)

Low

-0.4%

13:30

CAD Wholesale Sales (MoM) (DEC)

Low

-0.4% 0.7%

13:30

CAD International Securities Transactions (Canadian dollar) (DEC)

Low

6.75B 5.62B

15:00

USD NAHB Housing Market Index (FEB)

Low

48 47

21:45

NZD Producer Prices- Outputs (QoQ) (4Q)

Low

-0.9%

21:45

NZD Producer Prices- Inputs (QoQ) (4Q)

Low

-1.0%

23:00

AUD Conference Board Leading Index (DEC)

Medium

-0.2%

23:30

AUD Westpac Leading Index (MoM) (DEC)

Low

0.6%

23:50

JPY Merchandise Trade Balance Total (Yen) (JAN)

Medium

-¥1384.0B -¥641.5B

23:50

JPY Merchandise Trade Imports (YoY) (JAN)

Low

2.1 1.9

23:50

JPY Merchandise Trade Exports (YoY)

(JAN)

Low

5.6 -5.8

23:50

JPY Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance (Yen) (JAN)

Low

-¥586.7B -¥800.7B

Wed Feb 20

USD Mortgage Delinquencies (4Q)

Low

7.4%

USD MBA Mortgage Foreclosures (4Q)

Low

4.1%

00:30

AUD Wage Cost Index (QoQ) (4Q)

Low

0.8% 0.7%

00:30

AUD Wage Cost Index (YoY) (4Q)

Low

3.4% 3.7%

01:30

JPY Bank Of Japan Board Member Morimoto Speaks in Kochi

Low

04:30

JPY All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (DEC)

Medium

1.6% -0.3%

07:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JAN F)

High

1.7% 1.7%

07:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index -

EU Harmonised (YoY) (JAN F)

High

1.9% 1.9%

07:00

EUR German Producer Prices (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

1.2% 1.5%

07:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JAN F)

Medium

-0.5% -0.5%

07:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (MoM) (JAN F)

Medium

-0.7% -0.7%

07:00

JPY Convenience Store Sales (YoY) (JAN)

Low

-2.0%

07:00

EUR German Producer Prices (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.3% -0.3%

09:30

GBP Jobless Claims Change (JAN)

High

-5.5K -12.1K

09:30

GBP Bank of England

Releases Monetary Policy Committee Minutes

High

09:30

GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (DEC)

Medium

7.7% 7.7%

09:30

GBP Employment

Change (3M/3M) (DEC) Medium

117K 90K

09:30

GBP Claimant Count Rate (JAN)

Medium

4.8% 4.8%

09:30

GBP Average Weekly Earnings (3M/YoY) (DEC)

Medium

1.4% 1.5%

09:30

GBP Weekly Earnings exBonus (3M/YoY) (DEC)

Low

1.3% 1.4%

10:00

CHF ZEW Survey (Expectations) (FEB)

Medium

-6.9

12:00

USD MBA Mortgage Applications (FEB 15)

Low

-6.4%

13:30

USD Producer Price Index (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

1.5% 1.3%

13:30

USD Producer Price Index (MoM) (JAN)

Medium

0.4% -0.3%

13:30

USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

1.7% 2.0%

13:30

USD Housing Starts (MoM) (JAN)

Medium

-3.6% 12.1%

13:30

USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.2% 0.1%

13:30

USD Housing Starts (JAN)

Low

920K 954K

13:30

USD Building Permits (MoM) (JAN)

Low

1.2% 1.0%

13:30

USD Building Permits (JAN)

Low

920K 909K

14:00

CAD Teranet/National Bank HP Index (JAN)

Low

153.45

14:00

CAD Teranet/National Bank HPI (YoY) (JAN)

Low

3.1%

14:00

CAD Teranet/National Bank HPI (MoM) (JAN)

Low

-0.2% -0.4%

15:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (FEB A)

Medium

-23.2 -23.9

19:00

USD Fed Releases Minutes from Jan 29-30 FOMC Meeting

High

21:00

NZD ANZ NZ Job Ads (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.4%

23:50

JPY Japan Buying

Foreign Stocks (Yen) (FEB 15)

Low

-¥228.6B

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (FEB 15)

Low

-¥645.0B

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (FEB 15)

Low

¥212.9B

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (FEB 15)

Low

-¥261.6B

Thu Feb 21

00:30

AUD RBA Foreign Exchange Transaction (Australian dollar)

(JAN)

Low

752M

01:35

CNY MNI February Flash Business Sentiment Indicator

Low

02:00

CNY Conference Board China January Leading Economic Index

Low

05:00

JPY Supermarket Sales (YoY) (JAN)

Low

-1.5%

07:00

CHF Trade Balance (Swiss franc) (JAN)

Medium

1.70B 1.00B

07:00

CHF Imports (MoM) (JAN)

Low

5.5%

07:00

CHF Exports (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.3% -1.5%

08:00

EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (FEB P)

Low

44.4 43.6

08:00

EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (FEB P)

Low

43.8 42.9

08:00

CHF Real Estate Index Family Homes (4Q)

Low

413.1

08:00

CHF Money Supply M3 (YoY) (JAN)

Low

9.8%

08:30

EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services (FEB A)

Medium

55.5 55.7

08:30

EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (FEB A)

Medium

50.5 49.8

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (FEB A)

Medium

49 48.6

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (FEB A)

Medium

48.5 47.9

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (FEB A)

Medium

49 48.6

09:30

GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (Pounds) (JAN)

Medium

-9.5B 13.2B

09:30

GBP Public Finances (PSNCR) (Pounds) (JAN)

Medium

-35.0B 1.3B

09:30

GBP PSNB ex

Interventions (JAN) Medium

-8.7B 15.4B

11:00

GBP CBI Trends Selling Prices (FEB)

Low

15 21

11:00

GBP CBI Trends Total Orders (FEB)

Low

-15 -20

13:30

USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JAN)

High

1.6% 1.7%

13:30

USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (JAN)

High

1.8% 1.9%

13:30

USD Initial Jobless Claims (FEB 16)

Medium

355K 341K

13:30

USD Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JAN)

Medium

0.1% 0.0%

13:30

USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (JAN)

Medium

0.2% 0.1%

13:30

USD Continuing Claims (FEB 9)

Low

3150K 3114K

13:30

USD Consumer Price Index n.s.a. (JAN)

Low

230.304 229.601

13:30

USD Consumer Price Index Core Index s.a. (JAN)

Low

231.938 231.475

13:58

USD Markit US PMI Preliminary (FEB)

Medium

55.5

15:00

USD Philadelphia Fed. (FEB)

Medium

1 -5.8

15:00

USD Leading Indicators (JAN)

Medium

0.2% 0.5%

15:00

USD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (JAN)

Medium

-0.8% -1.0%

15:00

USD Existing Home Sales (JAN)

Low

4.90M 4.94M

15:00

USD API Monthly Statistical Report

Low

15:30

USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (FEB 15)

Low

-157

16:00

USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (FEB 15)

Low

-3677K

16:00

USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (FEB 15)

Low

560K

16:00

USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (FEB 15)

Low

-1118K

16:00

USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (FEB 15)

Low

-803K

17:30

USD Fed's Bullard Speaks About Monetary Policy in New York

Low

18:00

USD Fed's Williams Speaks on Monetary Policy in New York

Low

Fri Feb 22

01:30

CNY China January

Property Prices Medium

02:00

NZD Credit Card Spending s.a. (MoM) (JAN)

Medium

1.0%

02:00

NZD Credit Card Spending (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

4.6%

02:15

USD Fed's Fisher Speaks on Economy in Dallas ()

Low

07:00

EUR German Gross Domestic Product w.d.a. (YoY) (4Q F)

High

0.4% 0.4%

07:00

EUR German Gross

Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (4Q F)

High

-0.6% -0.6%

07:00

EUR German Gross Domestic Product n.s.a. (YoY) (4Q F)

High

0.1% 0.1%

07:00

EUR German Private Consumption (4Q)

Low

0.1% 0.3%

07:00

EUR German Imports (4Q)

Low

-1.0% 1.0%

07:00

EUR German Government Spending

(4Q)

Low

0.2% 0.4%

07:00

EUR German Exports (4Q)

Low

-2.0% 1.4%

07:00

EUR German Domestic Demand (4Q)

Low

-0.1% 0.0%

07:00

EUR German Construction Investment (4Q)

Low

-0.8% 1.5%

07:00

EUR German Capital Investment (4Q)

Low

-1.3% 0.2%

09:00

EUR German IFO - Current Assessment

(FEB)

Medium

108.5 108

09:00

EUR German IFO - Business Climate (FEB)

Medium

104.9 104.2

09:00

EUR German IFO - Expectations (FEB)

Medium

101.4 100.5

10:00

EUR EU Issues Winter Economic Forecasts in Brussels

Medium

13:30

CAD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JAN)

High

0.7% 0.8%

13:30

CAD Bank Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (JAN)

High

1.1% 1.1%

13:30

CAD Retail Sales (MoM) (DEC)

Medium

-0.4% 0.2%

13:30

CAD Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JAN)

Medium

0.2% -0.6%

13:30

CAD Bank Canada Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) (JAN)

Medium

0.2% -0.6%

13:30

CAD Retail Sales Less Autos (MoM) (DEC)

Low

0.1% -0.3%

13:30

CAD Core CPI s.a.

(MoM) (JAN) Low

0.1%

13:30

CAD Consumer Price Index s.a. (MoM) (JAN)

Low

-0.1%

13:30

CAD Consumer Price Index (JAN)

Low

121.2

15:15

USD Fed's Powell, Rosengren Speak in New York

Low

23:30

USD Fed's Tarullo Speaks on Regulation in New York

Low

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