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DAILY I FOREX REPORT

11TH

MARCH 2013

 WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO  +91 9752199966

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 Forex: EUR/USD Given

Fundamental Green LightFor Reversal

 US Dollar, Yen to Fall if USJobs Report TopsExpectations

 Dollar Outlook Tarnished by

ECB, NFPs Offers a RiskReprieve

US Dollar, Yen to Fall if US JobsReport Tops Expectations

All eyes are on February’s US Employment report through the end of the trading week.Consensus forecasts suggest the economyadded 165,000 jobs in February, a print broadly in line with the 12-month trendaverage of 168,000 that ought not to offermuch fuel for volatility around financialmarkets. US economic data has markedlyimproved relative to expectations since early

February however, leaving the door open foran upside surprise.

TRADING TIPS

 BUY EURUSD ABOVE 

1.3135 tgs

1.3155/1.3175 sl 1.3105

 BUY USDJPY ABOVE 

95.65 tgt 95.85/96.05

SL 95.35

 SELL GBPUSD BELOW 

1.4980 tgt 

1.4960/1.4940 SL

1.5010

HEADLINES

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 HOURLY EURUSD CHART

 

 ANALYSIS 

OPEN: 1.3108

HIGH: 1.3134

LOW: 1.3080

CLOSE: 1.3132

  EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD

  TREND : BULLISH

 STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS

  MACD =>-.000(BULLISH SIGNAL)

  RSI => 65(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY EURUSD CHART 

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 HOURLY USDJPY CHART

 ANALYSIS 

OPEN: 94.90

HIGH: 95.67 

LOW: 94.85

CLOSE: 95.67 

  USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD

  TREND: BULLISH

  STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS

  MACD => -0.02( BULLISH SIGNAL)

  RSI =>80(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY USDJPY CHART 

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 HOURLY GBPUSD CHART 

 ANALYSIS 

OPEN: 1.5026

HIGH: 1.5044

LOW: 1.4982

CLOSE: 1.5039

  GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD

  TREND: BEARISH

  STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

  MACD => .005( BEARISH SIGNAL)

  RSI => 59(BEARIISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART 

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HOURLY EURGBP CHART 

 ANALYSIS 

OPEN: 0.8723

HIGH: 0.8740

LOW: 0.8707 

CLOSE: 0.8727 

  EURGBP LOOKS UPWARDS

  TREND: BULLISH

  STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS

  MACD =>-.003(BULLISH SIGNAL)

  RSI =>62(BULLISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY EURGBP CHART 

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HOURLY USDINDEX CHART 

 ANALYSIS 

OPEN: 82.1100

HIGH: 82.3000

LOW: 82.0770

CLOSE: 82.1010

  USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARD

  TREND: BULLISH

  STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS

  MACD =>0.79(BULLISH SIGNAL)

  RSI =>39(BULLISH SIGNAL)

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Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes

Mon

Mar 4

GBP BoE/GfK Inflation Next12 Mths (FEB)

Medium  3.5%

00:00NZD ANZ Commodity Price(FEB)

Low  1.0% 0.3%

00:01GBP Lloyds BusinessBarometer (FEB)

Low  13 15

00:01GBP Hometrack HousingSurvey (YoY) (FEB)

Low  -0.1% -0.3%

00:01 GBP Hometrack HousingSurvey (MoM) (FEB)

Low  0.1% 0.0%

00:30JPY Confirmation Hearingfor BoJ Governor NomineeKuroda

Medium 

00:30 AUD Inventories (4Q) Low  0.2% 0.6% 1.2%

00:30 AUD Company OperatingProfit (QoQ) (4Q)

Low  -1.0% -1.0% -2.7%

00:30 AUD Building Approvals(YoY) (JAN)

Low  9.9% 8.1% 12.4%

00:30 AUD Building Approvals(MoM) (JAN)

Low  -2.4% 2.8% -1.7%

00:30 AUD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM)(FEB)

Low  3.0% 0.6%

09:30GBP Purchasing Manager Index Construction (FEB)

Medium  46.8 49 48.7

09:30EUR Euro-Zone SentixInvestor Confidence (MAR)

Medium  -10.6 -4.3 -3.9

10:00EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (JAN)

High   1.9% 1.9% 2.1%

10:00EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) (JAN)

Medium  0.6% 0.5% -0.2%

14:00EUR Euro-Area FinanceMinisters Meet in Brussels

High  

14:45 USD ISM New York (FEB) Low  56.7

22:30 AUD AiG Performance of Service Index (FEB)

Medium  45.3

Tue

Mar 5

GBP Halifax Plc House

Prices s.a. (MoM) (FEB)

Low  0.2% -0.2%

 ECONOMIC CALENDER

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 GBP Halifax House Price(3MoY) (FEB)

Low  1.7% 1.3%

00:01GBP BRC Sales Like-For-Like YoY (FEB)

Low  1.0% 1.9%

00:30 AUD Retail Sales s.a.(MoM) (JAN)

Medium  0.4% -0.2%

00:30 AUD Current AccountBalance (Australian Dollar)(4Q)

Medium  -15300M -14900M

00:30 AUD Australia Net Exportsof GDP (4Q)

Low  0.5 0.1

01:30JPY Labor Cash Earnings(YoY) (JAN)

Medium  -1.7%

01:45 HSBC Services PMI (FEB) Medium  54

03:30 AUD Reserve Bank of  Australia Rate Decision(MAR 5)

High   3.00% 3.00%

08:45EUR Italian PurchasingManager Index Services

(FEB)

Medium  43.5 43.9

08:50EUR French PurchasingManager Index Services(FEB F)

Medium  42.7 42.7

08:55EUR German PurchasingManager Index Services(FEB F)

Medium  54.1 54.1

09:00EUR Euro-Zone PurchasingManager Index Services(FEB F)

Medium  47.3 47.3

09:00EUR Euro-Zone PurchasingManager Index Composite(FEB F)

Medium  47.3 47.3

09:30GBP Purchasing Manager Index Services (FEB)

Medium  51 51.5

09:30GBP Official Reserves(Changes) (FEB)

Low  $565M

10:00EUR Euro-Zone RetailSales (YoY) (JAN)

High   -2.9% -3.6%

10:00EUR Euro-Zone RetailSales (MoM) (JAN)

Medium  0.3% -0.9%

15:00USD ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite

(FEB)

Medium  55 55.2

15:00USD IBD/TIPP EconomicOptimism (MAR)

Low  47.2 47.3

21:45NZD Value of All BuildingsSA (4Q)

Low  3.0% 9.6%

Wed

Mar 6

JPY Bankruptcies (YoY)(FEB)

Medium  -5.2%

GBP New Car Registrations(YoY) (FEB)

Low  11.5%

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 00:01

GBP BRC Shop Price Index(YoY) (FEB)

Low  0.6%

00:30 AUD Gross DomesticProduct (YoY) (4Q)

High   3.0% 3.1%

00:30 AUD Gross DomesticProduct (QoQ) (4Q)

High   0.6% 0.5%

10:00EUR Euro-Zone GrossDomestic Product s.a. (YoY)(4Q P)

High   -0.9% -0.9%

10:00EUR Euro-Zone GrossDomestic Product s.a.(QoQ) (4Q P)

High   -0.6% -0.6%

10:00EUR Euro-Zone HouseholdConsumption (QoQ) (4Q P)

Medium  0.0%

10:00EUR Euro-Zone GrossFixed Capital (QoQ) (4Q P)

Medium  -0.7%

10:00EUR Euro-ZoneGovernment Expenditure(QoQ) (4Q P)

Low  -0.2%

12:00USD MBA Mortgage

 Applications (MAR 1)

Low  -3.8%

13:15USD ADP EmploymentChange (FEB)

Medium  168K 192K

13:15USD Fed's Plosser Speakson Economic Outlook inLancaster, PA

Low 

15:00CAD Bank of Canada RateDecision (MAR 6)

High   1.00% 1.00%

15:00 USD Factory Orders (JAN) Medium  -2.2% 1.8%

15:00 Ivey Purchasing ManagersIndex SA (FEB) Medium  58.9

15:30USD DOE U.S. GasolineInventories (MAR 1)

Low  -1857K

15:30USD DOE U.S. DistillateInventory (MAR 1)

Low  557K

15:30USD DOE U.S. Crude OilInventories (MAR 1)

Low  1130K

15:30USD DOE Cushing OKCrude Inventory (MAR 1)

Low  -75K

19:00 USD U.S. Federal ReserveReleases Beige Book

Medium 

22:30 AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index (FEB)

Medium  36.2

23:00NZD QV House Prices(YoY) (FEB)

Low  6.2%

23:50JPY Official Reserve Assets(FEB)

Low  $1267.3B

23:50JPY Japan Buying ForeignStocks (Yen) (MAR 1)

Low  -¥106.4B

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 23:50

JPY Japan Buying ForeignBonds (Yen) (MAR 1)

Low  -¥665.4B

23:50JPY Foreign Buying JapanStocks (Yen) (MAR 1)

Low   ¥190.4B

23:50JPY Foreign Buying JapanBonds (Yen) (MAR 1)

Low  -¥82.6B

Thu

Mar 7

JPY Bank of Japan RateDecision (MAR 7)

High   0.10% 0.10%

EUR German WholesalePrice Index (YoY) (FEB)

Low  2.3%

EUR German WholesalePrice Index (MoM) (FEB)

Low  0.3%

00:30 AUD Trade Balance(Australian dollar) (JAN)

Medium  -427M

05:00JPY Leading Index (JAN P)(JAN P)

Medium  93.4

05:00JPY Coincident Index (JANP) (JAN P)

Low  92.6

05:30 AUD Foreign Reserves(Australian dollar) (FEB)

Low   A$46.5B

06:30EUR French MainlandUnemployment Change(4Q)

Medium  29K

06:30EUR French ILOUnemployment Rate (4Q)

Medium  10.3%

06:30EUR French ILO MainlandUnemployment Rate (4Q)

Medium  9.9%

06:30CHF SNB Final Result for 2012

Medium 

06:45CHF Unemployment Rates.a. (FEB)

Medium  3.1% 3.1%

06:45CHF Unemployment Rate(FEB)

Medium  3.4% 3.4%

07:45EUR French Trade Balance(euros) (JAN)

Low  -4700M -5349M

08:00CHF Foreign CurrencyReserves (FEB)

Low  -4700M 427.0B

09:00EUR Italian Producer PriceIndex (YoY) (JAN)

Low  2.0%

09:00EUR Italian Producer PriceIndex (MoM) (JAN)

Low  -0.2%

11:00EUR German FactoryOrders n.s.a. (YoY) (JAN)

Medium  1.6% -1.8%

11:00EUR German FactoryOrders s.a. (MoM) (JAN)

Low  0.6% 0.8%

12:00GBP Bank of England RateDecision (MAR 7)

High   0.50% 0.50%

12:00GBP BOE Asset Purchase

Target (MAR)

High   375B 375B

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 12:30

USD RBC Consumer Outlook Index (MAR)

Low  49.5

12:30USD Challenger Job Cuts(YoY) (FEB)

Low  -24.4%

12:45EUR European CentralBank Rate Decision (MAR7)

High   0.8% 0.75%

12:45EUR ECB Deposit FacilityRate (MAR 7)

Medium  0.00% 0.0%

13:30 USD Trade Balance (JAN) Medium  -$43.0B -$38.5B

13:30USD Initial Jobless Claims(MAR 3)

Medium  355K 344K

13:30USD Unit Labor Costs (4QF)

Low  4.3% 4.5%

13:30USD Non-Farm Productivity(4Q F)

Low  -1.5% -2.0%

13:30USD Continuing Claims(FEB 24)

Low  3110K 3074K

13:30CAD InternationalMerchandise Trade(Canadian dollar) (JAN)

Low  -0.55B -0.90B

13:30CAD Building Permits(MoM) (JAN)

Low  -11.2%

15:30USD EIA Natural GasStorage Change (MAR 1)

Low  -171

17:00USD Household Change inNet Worth (4Q)

Low  $1722B

20:00USD Consumer Credit(JAN)

Medium  $14.500B $14.595B

21:45NZD Manufacturing Activity(4Q)

Medium  1.6%

21:45NZD Manufacturing ActivityVolume SA (QoQ) (4Q)

Low  2.6%

23:50JPY Nominal GrossDomestic Product (QoQ)(4Q F)

High   -0.4%

23:50JPY Gross DomesticProduct (QoQ) (4Q F)

High   -0.1%

23:50JPY Gross DomesticProduct Annualized (4Q F) High   -0.4%

23:50JPY Trade Balance - BOPBasis (Yen) (JAN)

Medium  -¥1512.3B -¥567.6B

23:50JPY Current Account Total(Yen) (JAN)

Low  -¥626.0B -¥264.1B

23:50JPY Current AccountBalance (YoY) (JAN)

Low  34.2% -199.4%

23:50JPY Bank Lending inclTrusts (YoY) (FEB)

Low 

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 23:50

JPY Bank Lending Banksex-Trust (FEB)

Low  1.6%

23:50JPY Adjusted Current Account Total (Yen) (JAN)

Low   ¥112.2B ¥98.1B

23:50JPY Gross DomesticProduct Deflator (YoY) (4QF)

Low  -0.6%

Fri

Mar 8

JPY Eco Watchers Survey:Outlook (FEB)

Medium  56.5

JPY Eco Watchers Survey:Current (FEB)

Medium  49.5

EUR Bank of FranceBusiness Sentiment (FEB)

Medium  96 95

CNY Trade Balance (USD)(FEB)

Medium  -$8.85B $29.15B

CNY Imports (YoY) (FEB) Low  -8.2% 28.8%

CNY Exports (YoY) (FEB) Low  7.6% 25.0%

07:45EUR French CentralGovernment Balance(euros) (JAN)

Low  -87.2B

08:15CHF Consumer Price Index(YoY) (FEB)

Medium  -0.30% -0.3%

08:15CHF CPI - EU Harmonised(YoY) (FEB)

Medium  -0.1%

08:15CHF Consumer Price Index(MoM) (FEB)

Low  0.30% -0.3%

08:15CHF CPI - EU Harmonised(MoM) (FEB)

Low  -0.5%

11:00EUR German IndustrialProduction n.s.a. and w.d.a.(YoY) (JAN)

Medium  -1.2% -1.1%

11:00EUR German IndustrialProduction s.a. (MoM)(JAN)

Low  0.4% 0.3%

13:15 CAD Housing Starts (FEB) Medium  172.0K 160.6K

13:30USD Unemployment Rate(FEB)

High   7.9% 7.9%

13:30 USD Change in Non-farmPayrolls (FEB)

High   155K 157K

13:30CAD Unemployment Rate(FEB)

High   7.1% 7.0%

13:30CAD Net Change inEmployment (FEB)

High   7.5K -21.9K

13:30USD Change in PrivatePayrolls (FEB)

Medium  167K 166K

13:30USD Average HourlyEarning All Employees(YoY) (FEB)

Medium  2.1% 2.1%

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 13:30

CAD Participation Rate(FEB)

Medium  66.6

13:30CAD Part Time EmploymentChange (FEB)

Medium  -1.4

13:30CAD Full Time EmploymentChange (FEB)

Medium  -20.6

13:30 Average Hourly Earning AllEmployees (MoM) (FEB)

Low  0.2% 0.20%

13:30 USD UnderemploymentRate (U6) (FEB)

Low  14.4%

13:30USD Change inManufacturing Payrolls(FEB)

Low  10K 4K

13:30USD Change in HouseholdEmployment (FEB)

Low  17

13:30USD Average Weekly Hours All Employees (FEB)

Low  3440.0% 34.4

13:30CAD Labor Productivity(QoQ) (4Q)

Low  -0.5%

15:00USD Wholesale Inventories(JAN)

Low  0.3% -0.1%

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