Daily i Forex Report 1 by EPIC RESEARCH 22.03.13

7/29/2019 Daily i Forex Report 1 by EPIC RESEARCH 22.03.13

1/15

DAILY I FOREX REPORT22

ND

MARCH 2013

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2/15

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Australian Dollar Higher AsPMI Indicates China GrowthMomentum

Euro May Rise As PMI DataOvershadows CyprusJittersJPY Trade Deficit

Continues, But DevaluedYen May HelpEUR/USD Slips Under $1.2900 afterBig Misses on Euro-zone, GermanPMIs

THE TAKEAWAY: EUR Euro-zone, French, andGerman PMI data for March disappointsacross the board, signaling steeper recessionwhich is likely to continue through 3Q13 >EURUSD BEARISH

The worst economic slump since the depths of the

global financial crisis in 2008-2009 looks set tocontinue in Europe, as the core regions begin to feelthe brunt of the slowdown. The preliminary March PMfigures out of France, Germany, and the broader Eurozone all disappointed across the board, with all butoneGerman PMI Servicesholding in or falling backinto contraction territory. The headline figures are asfollows:

TRADING TIPS

SELL EURUSD BELOW

1.2880 tgs

1.2860/1.2840 sl 1.2910

BUY USDJPY ABOVE

96.05 tgt 96.25/96.45

SL 95.75

BUY GBPUSD ABOVE

1.5205 Tgt

1.5225/1.5245 SL

1.5175

HEADLINES


3/15

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 1.2939

HIGH: 1.2955

LOW: 1.2880

CLOSE: 1.2896

EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND : BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD =>-.0004(BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 38(BEARISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY EURUSD CHART


4/15

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 95.94

HIGH: 96.03

LOW: 95.21

CLOSE: 95.41

USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS

MACD => -0.07( BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>41(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY USDJPY CHART


5/15

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 1.5094

HIGH: 1.5204

LOW: 1.5092

CLOSE: 1.5173

GBPUSD LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS

MACD => .002( BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 66(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART


6/15

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 0.8572

HIGH: 0.8573

LOW: 0.8492

CLOSE: 0.8501

EURGBP LOOKS DOWNWARDS

TREND: BEARISH


MACD =>-.003(BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>27(BEARISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY EURGBP CHART


7/15

HOURLY USDINDEX CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 82.8330

HIGH: 83.0210

LOW: 82.7410

CLOSE: 82.8480

USDINDEX LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND: BEARISH


MACD =>0.22(BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>51(BEARISH SIGNAL)


8/15

Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous N

Mon

Mar 18

CNY Actual FDI (YoY)

(FEB)

Medium -4.8% -7.3%

00:01GBP Rightmove HousePrices (YoY) (MAR)

Medium 1.2% 1.1%

00:01GBP Rightmove HousePrices (MoM) (MAR)

Low 1.7% 2.8%

00:30AUD New MotorVehicle Sales (MoM)(FEB)

Low 0.0% -2.2%

00:30AUD New MotorVehicle Sales (YoY)(FEB)

Low 9.4% 10.9%

01:30 CNY China FebruaryProperty Prices

Medium

06:45CHF SECO March2013 EconomicForecasts

Medium

10:00EUR Euro-Zone TradeBalance (euros) (JAN)

Low -3.9B -3.5B 10.8B

10:00EUR Euro-Zone TradeBalance s.a. (euros)(JAN)

Low 9.0B 10.9B 10.3B

12:30CAD InternationalSecurities Transactions

(Canadian dollar) (JAN)

Low -1.92B

14:00

EUR CyprusParliament to Vote onDeposit Levy for EUBailout Plan

High

14:00USD NAHB HousingMarket Index (MAR)

Low 47 46

Tue

Mar 1900:30

AUD RBA PolicyMeeting - MarchMinutes

High

02:00

CNY Conference BoardChina February

Leading EconomicIndex

Low

04:00JPY Bank of JapanGovernor ShirakawaSteps Down

High

05:00JPY Leading Index(JAN F)

Medium 96.3

05:00JPY Coincident Index(JAN F)

Low 92.0

05:30JPY NationwideDepartment StoreSales (YoY) (FEB)

Low 0.2%

ECONOMIC CALENDER


9/15

05:30

JPY Tokyo DepartmentStore Sales (YoY)(FEB)

Low 0.5%

07:00EUR EU 25 New CarRegistrations (FEB)

Low -8.7%

09:30GBP Consumer PriceIndex (YoY) (FEB)

High 2.8% 2.7%

09:30GBP Core ConsumerPrice Index (YoY)(FEB)

High 2.2% 2.3%

09:30GBP Consumer PriceIndex (MoM) (FEB)

Medium 0.7% -0.5%

09:30GBP Producer PriceIndex Output Coren.s.a. (YoY) (FEB)

Medium 1.1% 1.4%

09:30GBP Producer PriceIndex Output n.s.a.(YoY) (FEB)

Medium 1.8% 2.0%

09:30GBP Retail Price Index(YoY) (FEB)

Medium 3.3% 3.3%

09:30

GBP DCLG UK House

Prices (YoY) (JAN) Low 2.4% 3.3%

09:30GBP Producer PriceIndex Input n.s.a.(MoM) (FEB)

Low 1.5% 1.3%

09:30GBP Producer PriceIndex Input n.s.a. (YoY)(FEB)

Low 0.8% 1.8%

09:30GBP Producer PriceIndex Output Coren.s.a. (MoM) (FEB)

Low 0.3% 0.2%

09:30GBP Producer PriceIndex Output n.s.a.

(MoM) (FEB)

Low 0.4% 0.2%

09:30GBP Retail Price Index(FEB)

Low

09:30GBP Retail Price IndexEx Mort Int.Payments(YoY) (FEB)

Low 3.2% 3.3%

09:30GBP Retail Price Index(MoM) (FEB)

Low 0.8% -0.4%

10:00EUR German ZEWSurvey (EconomicSentiment) (MAR)

High 48.1 48.2

10:00 EUR Euro-Zone ZEWSurvey (EconomicSentiment) (MAR)

Medium 42.4

10:00EUR German ZEWSurvey (CurrentSituation) (MAR)

Medium 6 5.2

10:00EUR Euro-ZoneConstruction Outputs.a. (MoM) (JAN)

Low -1.7%

10:00EUR Euro-ZoneConstruction Outputw.d.a. (YoY) (JAN)

Low -4.8%


10/15

12:30

USD Building Permits(MoM) (FEB)

Medium 2.1% -0.6%

12:30USD Housing Starts(MoM) (FEB)

Medium 2.8% -8.5%

12:30CAD ManufacturingShipments (MoM)(JAN)

Low 0.6% -3.1%

12:30CAD Wholesale Sales(MoM) (JAN)

Low 0.4% -0.9%

12:30USD Building Permits(FEB)

Low 923K 904K

12:30USD Housing Starts(FEB)

Low 915K 890K

21:45NZD Current AccountBalance (4Q)

Medium -2.950B -4.418B

21:45NZD Current AccountDeficit-GDP Ratio (4Q)

Low -4.9% -4.7%

23:30AUD Westpac LeadingIndex (MoM) (JAN)

Low 0.2%

Wed

Mar 20

USD Federal ReserveFOMC Meeting

High

00:00AUD DEWR InternetSkilled Vacancies(MoM) (FEB)

Low -0.7%

07:00EUR German ProducerPrices (YoY) (FEB)

Medium 1.5% 1.7%

07:00EUR German ProducerPrices (MoM) (FEB)

Low 0.2% 0.8%

09:00EUR Euro-ZoneCurrent Account n.s.a.

(euros) (JAN)

Low 27.0B

09:00EUR Euro-ZoneCurrent Account s.a.(euros) (JAN)

Low 13.9B

09:30

GBP Bank of EnglandReleases MonetaryPolicy CommitteeMinutes

High

09:30GBP Jobless ClaimsChange (FEB)

High -5.0K -12.5K

09:30GBP Average WeeklyEarnings (3M/YoY)

(JAN)

Medium 1.5% 1.4%

09:30GBP Claimant CountRate (FEB)

Medium 4.7% 4.7%

09:30GBP EmploymentChange (3M/3M) (JAN)

Medium 140K 154K

09:30GBP ILOUnemployment Rate(3M) (JAN)

Medium 7.8% 7.8%

09:30GBP Weekly EarningsexBonus (3M/YoY)(JAN)

Low 1.5% 1.3%


11/15

10:00

CHF ZEW Survey(Expectations) (MAR)

Medium 10

11:00USD MBA MortgageApplications (MAR 15)

Low -4.7%

12:30GBP U.K. ChancellorOsborne Presents 2013Budget to Parliament

High

13:00CAD Teranet/NationalBank HPI (MoM) (FEB)

Low -0.3%

13:00CAD Teranet/NationalBank HPI (YoY) (FEB)

Low 2.7%

13:00CAD Teranet/NationalBank HP Index (FEB)

Low 153

14:30USD DOE Cushing OKCrude Inventory (MAR15)

Low -1526K

14:30USD DOE U.S. CrudeOil Inventories (MAR15)

Low 2624K

14:30USD DOE U.S.Distillate Inventory(MAR 15)

Low 83K

14:30USD DOE U.S.Gasoline Inventories(MAR 15)

Low -3571K

15:00EUR Euro-ZoneConsumer Confidence(MAR A)

Medium -23.2 -23.6

18:00USD Fed ReleasesSummary of EconomicProjections

High

18:00USD Federal OpenMarket Committee Rate

Decision (MAR 20)

High 0.25% 0.25%

18:30

USD Fed's BernankeHolds PressConference inWashington

High

21:45NZD Gross DomesticProduct (QoQ) (4Q)

High 0.9% 0.2%

21:45NZD Gross DomesticProduct (YoY) (4Q)

High 2.3% 2.0%

23:50JPY MerchandiseTrade Balance Total(Yen) (FEB)

Medium -855.9B -1629.4B

23:50JPY AdjustedMerchandise TradeBalance (Yen) (FEB)

Low -1099.4B -678.9B

23:50JPY Foreign BuyingJapan Bonds (Yen)(MAR 15)

Low -838.2B

23:50JPY Foreign BuyingJapan Stocks (Yen)(MAR 15)

Low 1121.9B

23:50JPY Japan BuyingForeign Bonds (Yen)(MAR 15)

Low 764.4B


12/15

23:50

JPY Japan BuyingForeign Stocks (Yen)(MAR 15)

Low -269.6B

23:50JPY MerchandiseTrade Exports (YoY)(FEB)

Low -1.2 6.4

23:50JPY MerchandiseTrade Imports (YoY)(FEB)

Low 14.9 7.3

Thu

Mar 2100:00

AUD CBAHIA HouseAffordability (4Q)

Low 65.8

00:30

AUD RBA ForeignExchange Transaction(Australian dollar)(FEB)

Low 393M

01:45CNY HSBC FlashManufacturing PMI(MAR)

Medium 50.9 50.4

02:00NZD Credit CardSpending (YoY) (FEB)

Medium 0.4%

02:00NZD Credit CardSpending s.a. (MoM)(FEB)

Medium -2.5%

04:30JPY All Industry ActivityIndex (MoM) (JAN)

Medium -1.3% 1.8%

05:00JPY SupermarketSales (YoY) (FEB)

Low -4.7%

07:00CHF Trade Balance(Swiss franc) (FEB)

Medium 2.13B

07:00CHF Exports (MoM)(FEB)

Low 3.70%

07:00CHF Imports (MoM)(FEB)

Low -0.5%

07:00JPY ConvenienceStore Sales (YoY)(FEB)

Low -0.9%

08:00CHF Money Supply M3(YoY) (FEB)

Low 9.20%

08:00

EUR FrenchPurchasing ManagerIndex Manufacturing(MAR P)

Low 44.2 43.9

08:00

EUR FrenchPurchasing ManagerIndex Services (MAR

P)

Low 44.0 43.7

08:30

EUR GermanPurchasing ManagerIndex Manufacturing(MAR A)

Medium 50.5 50.3

08:30

EUR GermanPurchasing ManagerIndex Services (MARA)

Medium 55.0 54.7

09:00

EUR Euro-ZonePurchasing ManagerIndex Composite (MARA)

Medium 48.2 47.9


13/15

09:00

EUR Euro-ZonePurchasing ManagerIndex Manufacturing(MAR A)

Medium 48.2 47.9

09:00

EUR Euro-ZonePurchasing ManagerIndex Services (MARA)

Medium 48.2 47.9

09:30GBP PSNB exInterventions (FEB)

Medium 8.0B -11.4B

09:30 GBP Public Finances(PSNCR) (Pounds)(FEB)

Medium -12.0B -35.6B

09:30GBP Public Sector NetBorrowing (Pounds)(FEB)

Medium 8.2B -9.9B

09:30GBP Retail Sales (YoY)(FEB)

Medium 1.2% 0.2%

09:30GBP Retail Salesw/Auto Fuel (YoY)(FEB)

Medium 0.5% -0.6%

09:30GBP Retail Sales

(MoM) (FEB)

Low 0.6% -0.5%

09:30GBP Retail Salesw/Auto Fuel (MoM)(FEB)

Low 0.4% -0.6%

11:00GBP CBI TrendsSelling Prices (MAR)

Low 17 20

11:00GBP CBI Trends TotalOrders (MAR)

Low -15 -14.0

12:30CAD Retail Sales(MoM) (JAN)

Medium 0.8% -2.1%

12:30USD Initial JoblessClaims (MAR 16) Medium 344K 332K

12:30CAD Retail Sales LessAutos (MoM) (JAN)

Low 0.3% -0.9%

12:30USD Continuing Claims(MAR 9)

Low 3063K 3024K

12:58USD Markit US PMIPreliminary (MAR)

Medium 54.8

13:00USD House Price Index(MoM) (JAN)

Medium 0.7% 0.6%

14:00 USD Existing HomeSales (MoM) (FEB)Medium 1.6% 0.4%

14:00USD Leading Indicators(FEB)

Medium 0.3% 0.2%

14:00USD Philadelphia Fed.(MAR)

Medium -3 -12.5

14:00USD API MonthlyStatistical Report

Low

14:00USD Existing HomeSales (FEB)

Low 5.00M 4.92M


14/15

14:30

USD EIA Natural GasStorage Change (MAR15)

Low -145

21:00NZD ANZ NZ Job Ads(MoM) (FEB)

Low -1.5%

21:45NZD Net Migration s.a.(FEB)

Low 350

23:00

AUD Conference Board

Leading Index (JAN) Medium -0.1%

Fri

Mar 2201:35

CNY MNI March FlashBusiness SentimentIndicator

Low

09:00EUR German IFO -Business Climate(MAR)

Medium 107.8 107.4

09:00EUR German IFO -Current Assessment(MAR)

Medium 110.5 110.2

09:00EUR German IFO -Expectations (MAR)

Medium 105.0 104.6

12:45USD Fed's RaskinSpeaks on LaborMarket in Washington

Low

16:00USD Fed Revisions ofIndustrial Production

Low


15/15

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Daily i Forex Report 1 by EPIC RESEARCH 22.03.13

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Transcript of Daily i Forex Report 1 by EPIC RESEARCH 22.03.13