DAILY I FOREX REPORT 3

RD

APRIL 2013

WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO +91 9752199966

WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO +91 9752199966

USD to Consolidate Further Ahead of NFPs- AUD to Face RBA

Euro, Pound At Risk As Soft PMIs Set The Stage For ECB And BOE

Australian Dollar Higher As RBA Hold Rates, Less Dovish

THE TAKEAWAY: Euro-zone PMI Manufacturing revised slightly higher to 46.8 -> Markit says manufacturing dragging on the economy -> Euro doesn’t rise with improved release

The Euro-zone Purchasing Managers’ Index for Manufacturing in March was revised slightly higher according to a final release by Markit. However, the PMI is still down from an 11-month high set in January, and the PMI has continued to indicate a declining manufacturing sector since July of 2011. The PMI for Manufacturing was revised to 46.8 from a previous estimate of 46.6, but is down from 47.9 in February.

The German PMI for manufacturing declined back below the 50.0 neutral level in March, but the final estimate was revised 0.1 higher to 49.0. The France manufacturing PMI was revised slightly higher to 44.0, and the Italy index disappointed expectations today at 44.5 for March, setting a 7-month low.

Manufacturing production contracted at the fastest pace year to date, as companies saw decreases in new business inflows, according to Markit. New export orders resumed a decline in March on lower demand from intra-Euro-zone trade. Job losses were reported in the sector for the fourteenth straight month.

TRADING TIPS

BUY EURUSD ABOVE

1.2880 tgs

1.2900/1.2920 sl 1.2850

SELL USDJPY BELOW

92.55 tgt 92.35/92.15

SL 92.85

SELL GBPUSD BELOW

1.5180 Tgt

1.5160/1.5140 SL

1.5200

HEADLINES

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 1.2848

HIGH: 1.2878

LOW: 1.2825

CLOSE: 1.2848

EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD

TREND : BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

MACD =>-.0005(BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 48(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 93.18

HIGH: 93.35

LOW: 92.57

CLOSE: 93.24

USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND: BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD => -0.07( BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>50(BEARISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 1.5221

HIGH: 1.5258

LOW: 1.5181

CLOSE: 1.5193

GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND: BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD => .002( BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 40(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 0.8440

HIGH: 0.8459

LOW: 0.8425

CLOSE: 0.8452

EURGBP LOOKS UPWARDS

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS

MACD =>-.003(BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>55(BULLISH SIGNAL)

www.epicresearch.co + 91 9752199966

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

HOURLY USDINDEX CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 82.7280

HIGH: 82.8000

LOW: 82.4930

CLOSE: 82.0910

USDINDEX LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND: BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD =>0.22(BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>51(BEARISH SIGNAL)

Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes

Sun

Mar 31 23:50

JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Outlook (1Q)

High -1 1 -10

23:50

JPY Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook (1Q)

High 9 11 3

23:50

JPY Tankan Large All Industry Capex (1Q)

Medium -2.0% 5.0% 6.8%

23:50

JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (1Q)

Medium -8 -7 -12

23:50

JPY Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index (1Q)

Medium 6 8 4

23:50

JPY Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (FEB)

Low 1.42%

1.34%

Mon Apr 1

01:00

CNY Manufacturing PMI (MAR)

High 50.9 51.2 50.1

01:45

CNY HSBC Manufacturing PMI (MAR)

Medium 51.6 51.6 50.4

04:39

CNY Leading Index (FEB)

Low 100.23

100.50

05:00

JPY Vehicle Sales (YoY) (MAR)

Low -15.6%

-12.2%

12:58

USD Markit US PMI Final (MAR)

Low 54.6 55.0 54.9

14:00

USD ISM Manufacturing (MAR)

High 51.3 54.0 54.2

14:00

USD Construction Spending (MoM) (FEB)

Medium 1.2% 1.0% -2.1%

14:00

USD ISM Prices Paid (MAR)

Medium 54.5 60.0 61.5

22:30

AUD AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (MAR)

Medium 44.4

45.6

23:00

AUD RPData-Rismark House PX Actual (MAR)

Low 1.3%

0.3%

23:01

GBP Lloyds Business Barometer (MAR)

Low 20

13

23:50

JPY Monetary Base (YoY) (MAR)

Low 19.8%

15.0%

Tue

Apr 2 00:00

NZD ANZ Commodity Price (MAR)

Low 7.4%

1.1%

ECONOMIC CALENDER

01:30

JPY Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (FEB)

Medium -0.7% -0.2% 0.1%

03:30

AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision (APR 2)

High 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%

05:30

AUD RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY) (MAR)

Low -7.5%

-6.5%

05:30

AUD RBA Commodity Price Index (MAR)

Low 87.9

87.9

07:30

CHF SVME-Purchasing Managers Index (MAR)

Medium 48.3 50.4 50.8

07:45

EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAR)

Low 44.5 45.3 45.8

07:50

EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAR F)

Low 44.0 43.9 43.9

07:55

EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAR F)

Medium 49.0 48.9 48.9

08:00

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAR F)

Medium 46.8 46.6 46.6

08:00

EUR Italian Unemployment Rate s.a. (FEB P)

Medium 11.6% 11.8% 11.7%

08:30

GBP Mortgage Approvals (FEB)

Medium 51.7K 53.7K 54.2K

08:30

GBP Net Consumer Credit (FEB)

Medium 0.6B 0.4B 0.5B

08:30

GBP Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (FEB)

Medium 0.9B 0.4B 0.3B

08:30

GBP Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAR)

Medium 48.3 48.7 47.9

08:30

GBP M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (FEB)

Low 3.1% 5.0% 5.8%

08:30

GBP M4 Money Supply (MoM) (FEB)

Low -0.5%

0.9%

08:30

GBP M4 Money Supply (YoY) (FEB)

Low 0.5%

-0.8%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (FEB)

Medium 12.0% 12.0% 12.0%

10:00

EUR ECB's Kranjec Presents Slovenia Economy Outlook, Banks

Low

12:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (YoY) (MAR P)

High

1.7% 1.8%

12:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAR P)

High

1.3% 1.5%

12:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (MoM) (MAR P)

Medium

0.3% 0.8%

12:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (MAR P)

Medium

0.4% 0.6%

13:45

USD ISM New York (MAR)

Low

58.8

14:00

USD Factory Orders (FEB)

Medium

2.9% -2.0%

14:00

USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (APR) (APR)

Low

45.5 42.2

15:20

EUR ECB's Coeure Speaks in Washington DC

Low

17:00

USD Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks on Monetary Policy in North Dakota

Low

17:30

USD Fed's Lockhart Speaks in Alabama

Low

21:00

USD Domestic Vehicle Sales (MAR)

Low

12.04M 11.99M

21:00

USD Total Vehicle Sales (MAR)

Low

15.30M 15.33M

23:01

GBP BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (MAR)

Low

1.10%

23:30

USD Fed's Evans, Lacker Speak on Monetary Policy in Richmond

Low

Wed

Apr 3 00:00

AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (FEB)

Medium

4.2%

GBP Halifax House Price (3MoY) (MAR)

Low

1.1% 1.9%

GBP Halifax Plc House Prices s.a. (MoM) (MAR)

Low

0.2% 0.5%

00:30

AUD Trade Balance (Australian dollar) (FEB)

Medium

-1000M -1057M

01:00

CNY Non-manufacturing PMI (MAR)

Medium

54.5

01:45

CNY HSBC Services PMI (MAR)

Medium

52.1

08:30

GBP Purchasing Manager Index Construction (MAR)

Medium

48.0 46.8

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (YoY) (MAR)

Medium

1.6% 1.8%

11:00

USD MBA Mortgage Applications (MAR 29)

Low

7.7%

12:15

USD ADP Employment Change (MAR)

Medium

200K 198K

14:00

USD ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite (MAR)

Medium

55.6 56

14:30

USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (MAR 29)

Low

439K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAR 29)

Low

2250K 3256K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAR 29)

Low

-750K -4513K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAR 29)

Low

-1000K -1596K

19:30

USD Fed's Williams Speaks on Monetary Policy in Los Angeles

Low

21:00

USD Fed's Bullard to Introduce Lecture in St. Louis

Low

22:30

AUD AiG Performance of Service Index (MAR)

Medium

48.5

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (MAR 29)

Low

-¥975.2B

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (MAR 29)

Low

-¥267.6B

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (MAR 29)

Low

-¥490.5B

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (MAR 29)

Low

-¥640.2B

Thu Apr 4

JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision (APR 4)

High

0.10% 0.10%

00:30

AUD Building Approvals (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

14.3% 9.9%

00:30

AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (FEB)

Medium

0.3% 0.9%

00:30

AUD Building Approvals (MoM) (FEB)

Low

2.5% -2.4%

07:45

EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAR)

Low

43.5 43.6

07:50

EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAR F)

Low

41.9 41.9

07:55

EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAR F)

Medium

51.6 51.6

08:00

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (MAR F)

Medium

46.5 46.5

08:00

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAR F)

Medium

46.5 46.5

08:30

GBP Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAR)

Medium

51.5 51.8

08:30

GBP Official Reserves (Changes) (MAR)

Low

-$1333M

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

1.4% 1.9%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) (FEB)

Low

0.2% 0.6%

11:00

GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target (APR)

High

375B 375B

11:00

GBP Bank of England Rate Decision (APR 4)

High

0.50% 0.50%

11:30

USD Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (MAR)

Low

7.0%

11:30

USD RBC Consumer Outlook Index (APR)

Low

47.1

11:45

EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision (APR 4)

High

0.75% 0.75%

11:45

EUR ECB Deposit Facility Rate (APR 4)

Medium

0.00% 0.00%

12:30

USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 30)

Medium

353K 357K

12:30

USD Continuing Claims (MAR 23)

Low

3065K 3050K

12:45

USD Fed's Evans, Lockhart Speak on Monetary Policy in Ohio

Low

14:30

USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (MAR 29)

Low

-95

16:30

USD Fed's George Speaks on Economy in Oklahoma

Low

21:00

USD Fed's Yellen Speaks in Washington

Low

23:50

JPY Official Reserve Assets (MAR)

Low

$1258.8B

Fri Apr 5

GBP New Car Registrations (YoY) (MAR)

Low

7.9%

05:00

JPY Bank of Japan's Monthly Economic Report for April (Table)

Medium

05:00

JPY Leading Index (FEB P)

Medium

97.3 95

05:00

JPY Coincident Index (FEB P)

Low

91.9 91.6

07:00

CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (MAR)

Low

427.0B 430.0B

08:00

EUR Italian Deficit to GDP (YTD) (4Q)

Medium

3.7%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (FEB)

High

-1.2% -1.3%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (FEB)

Medium

-0.4% 1.2%

10:00

EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

-1.5% -2.5%

10:00

EUR German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (FEB)

Low

1.1% -2.5%

12:30

CAD Net Change in Employment (MAR)

High

5.0K 50.7K

12:30

CAD Unemployment Rate (MAR)

High

7.0% 7.0%

12:30

USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls (MAR)

High

199K 236K

12:30

USD Unemployment Rate (MAR)

High

7.7% 7.7%

12:30

CAD Full Time Employment Change (MAR)

Medium

33.6

12:30

USD Average Hourly Earnings All Employees (MoM) (MAR)

Medium

0.2% 0.2%

12:30

USD Average Hourly Earnings All Employees (YoY) (MAR)

Medium

2.0% 2.1%

12:30

USD Change in Household Employment (MAR)

Medium

170

12:30

USD Change in Private Payrolls (MAR)

Medium

203K 246K

12:30

USD Trade Balance (FEB)

Medium

-$44.6B -$44.4B

12:30

USD Two-Month Payroll Net Revision (MAR)

Medium

-15K

12:30

USD Underemployment Rate (U6) (MAR)

Medium

14.3%

12:30

CAD International Merchandise Trade (Canadian dollar) (FEB)

Low

0.10B -0.24B

12:30

CAD Part Time Employment Change (MAR)

Low

17.2

12:30

CAD Participation Rate (MAR)

Low

66.7 66.7

12:30

USD Average Weekly Hours All Employees (MAR)

Low

34.5 34.5

12:30

USD Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (MAR)

Low

10K 14K

14:00

CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a (MAR)

Medium

52.2 51.1

19:00

USD Consumer Credit (FEB)

Medium

$15.000B $16.151B

www.epicresearch.co + 91 9752199966

Disclaimer

The information and views in this report, our website & all the service we provide are believed to be reliable, but we do not accept any responsibility (or liability) for errors of fact or opinion. Users have the right to choose the product/s that suits them the most.

Sincere efforts have been made to present the right investment perspective. The information contained herein is based on analysis and up on sources that we consider reliable.

This material is for personal information and based upon it & takes no responsibility

The information given herein should be treated as only factor, while making investment decision. The report does not provide individually tailor-made investment advice. Epic research recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. Epic research shall not be responsible for any transaction conducted based on the information given in this report, which is in violation of rules and regulations of NSE and BSE.

The share price projections shown are not necessarily indicative of future price performance. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change without notice. Analyst or any person related to epic research might be holding positions in the stocks recommended. It is understood that anyone who is browsing through the site has done so at his free will and does not read any views expressed as a recommendation for which either the site or its owners or anyone can be held responsible for . Any surfing and reading of the information is the acceptance of this disclaimer.

All Rights Reserved.

Investment in equity & bullion market has its own risks.

We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. we are not responsible for any loss incurred whatsoever for any financial profits or loss which may arise from the recommendations above epic research does not purport to be an invitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. Our Clients (Paid Or Unpaid), Any third party or anyone else have no rights to forward or share our calls or SMS or Report or Any Information Provided by us to/with anyone which is received directly or indirectly by them. If found so then Serious Legal Actions can be taken.