Daily i Forex Report 1 by EPIC RESEARCH 07.03.13

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  • 7/29/2019 Daily i Forex Report 1 by EPIC RESEARCH 07.03.13

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    DAILY I FOREX REPORT7

    TH

    MARCH 2013

    WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO +91 9752199966

    http://www.epicresearch.co/http://www.epicresearch.co/http://www.epicresearch.co/
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    WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO +91 9752199966

    Forex: AUD/USD BreaksHigher As Dow Hits RecordWait On ECB For EUR/USD

    Pound Falls Below 1.50 AsUS Dollar Corrects EarlierLossesDollar Threatening Serious

    Reversal as Dow Index HitsRecord HighEuro Looks to GDP Revision to Setthe Stage for ECB Rate DecisionRevised fourth-quarter Euro zone GDP figuresheadline the economic calendar. Economists expect

    confirmation of initial estimates showing a 0.6contraction. That would mark the deepest quarterlydownturn in nearly four years. A worse-than-expectedresult may weigh on the Euro as traders speculate theECB may move to open the door for stimulus tocounteract deepening recession and offset de-factotightening from LTRO repayments. With that said, thecentral bank has been reluctant to ease against abackdrop rising sovereign risk, claiming swelling riskpremiums priced into bond yields undermine policytransmission. Recent political jitters in Italy have seen

    yields on the countrys benchmark 10-year note trendhigher, hinting Mario Draghi may prefer to remain onthe sidelines until a concrete government emergesand funding stress unwinds. An upgrade on the GDPfigure could thus drive the single currency higher,giving the bank just enough space to stay put thisweek.

    TRADING TIPS

    SELL EURUSD BELOW

    1.3025 tgs

    1.3005/1.2985 sl 1.3055

    SELL USDJPY BELOW

    92.90 tgt 92.70/92.50

    SL 93.20

    SELL GBPUSD BELOW

    1.5065 tgt

    1.5045/1.5025 SL

    1.5095

    HEADLINES

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    HOURLY EURUSD CHART

    ANALYSIS

    OPEN: 1.3047

    HIGH: 1.3070

    LOW: 1.3024

    CLOSE: 1.3033

    EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD

    TREND : BEARISH

    STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

    MACD =>-.000(BEARISH SIGNAL)

    RSI => 45(BEARISH SIGNAL)

    HOURLY EURUSD CHART

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    HOURLY USDJPY CHART

    ANALYSIS

    OPEN: 93.29

    HIGH: 93.50

    LOW: 93.00

    CLOSE: 93.42

    USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARD

    TREND: BEARISH

    STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD => -0.02( BEARISH SIGNAL)

    RSI =>60(BEARISH SIGNAL)

    HOURLY USDJPY CHART

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    HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

    ANALYSIS

    OPEN: 1.5136

    HIGH: 1.5155

    LOW: 1.5063

    CLOSE: 1.5090

    GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD

    TREND: BULLISH

    STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

    MACD => .005( BEARISH SIGNAL)

    RSI => 42(BEARIISH SIGNAL)

    HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

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    HOURLY EURGBP CHART

    ANALYSIS

    OPEN: 0.8620

    HIGH: 0.8649

    LOW: 0.8620

    CLOSE: 0.8630

    EURGBP LOOKS DOWNWARDS

    TREND: BEARISH

    STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

    MACD =>-.003(BEARISH SIGNAL)

    RSI =>56(BEARISH SIGNAL)

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    HOURLY EURGBP CHART

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    HOURLY USDINDEX CHART

    ANALYSIS

    OPEN: 82.0420

    HIGH: 82.2030

    LOW: 81.9250

    CLOSE: 82.1430

    USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARD

    TREND: BULLISH

    STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS

    MACD =>0.79(BULLISH SIGNAL)

    RSI =>59(BULLISH SIGNAL)

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    Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes

    Mon

    Mar 4

    GBP BoE/GfK Inflation Next12 Mths (FEB)

    Medium 3.5%

    00:00NZD ANZ Commodity Price(FEB)

    Low 1.0% 0.3%

    00:01GBP Lloyds BusinessBarometer (FEB)

    Low 13 15

    00:01GBP Hometrack HousingSurvey (YoY) (FEB)

    Low -0.1% -0.3%

    00:01 GBP Hometrack HousingSurvey (MoM) (FEB)

    Low 0.1% 0.0%

    00:30JPY Confirmation Hearingfor BoJ Governor NomineeKuroda

    Medium

    00:30 AUD Inventories (4Q) Low 0.2% 0.6% 1.2%

    00:30AUD Company OperatingProfit (QoQ) (4Q)

    Low -1.0% -1.0% -2.7%

    00:30AUD Building Approvals(YoY) (JAN)

    Low 9.9% 8.1% 12.4%

    00:30AUD Building Approvals(MoM) (JAN)

    Low -2.4% 2.8% -1.7%

    00:30AUD ANZ JobAdvertisements (MoM)(FEB)

    Low 3.0% 0.6%

    09:30GBP Purchasing ManagerIndex Construction (FEB)

    Medium 46.8 49 48.7

    09:30EUR Euro-Zone SentixInvestor Confidence (MAR)

    Medium -10.6 -4.3 -3.9

    10:00EUR Euro-Zone ProducerPrice Index (YoY) (JAN)

    High 1.9% 1.9% 2.1%

    10:00EUR Euro-Zone ProducerPrice Index (MoM) (JAN)

    Medium 0.6% 0.5% -0.2%

    14:00EUR Euro-Area FinanceMinisters Meet in Brussels

    High

    14:45 USD ISM New York (FEB) Low 56.7

    22:30AUD AiG Performance ofService Index (FEB)

    Medium 45.3

    Tue

    Mar 5

    GBP Halifax Plc House

    Prices s.a. (MoM) (FEB)

    Low 0.2% -0.2%

    ECONOMIC CALENDER

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    GBP Halifax House Price(3MoY) (FEB)

    Low 1.7% 1.3%

    00:01GBP BRC Sales Like-For-Like YoY (FEB)

    Low 1.0% 1.9%

    00:30AUD Retail Sales s.a.(MoM) (JAN)

    Medium 0.4% -0.2%

    00:30AUD Current AccountBalance (Australian Dollar)(4Q)

    Medium -15300M -14900M

    00:30AUD Australia Net Exportsof GDP (4Q)

    Low 0.5 0.1

    01:30JPY Labor Cash Earnings(YoY) (JAN)

    Medium -1.7%

    01:45 HSBC Services PMI (FEB) Medium 54

    03:30AUD Reserve Bank ofAustralia Rate Decision(MAR 5)

    High 3.00% 3.00%

    08:45EUR Italian PurchasingManager Index Services

    (FEB)

    Medium 43.5 43.9

    08:50EUR French PurchasingManager Index Services(FEB F)

    Medium 42.7 42.7

    08:55EUR German PurchasingManager Index Services(FEB F)

    Medium 54.1 54.1

    09:00EUR Euro-Zone PurchasingManager Index Services(FEB F)

    Medium 47.3 47.3

    09:00EUR Euro-Zone PurchasingManager Index Composite(FEB F)

    Medium 47.3 47.3

    09:30GBP Purchasing ManagerIndex Services (FEB)

    Medium 51 51.5

    09:30GBP Official Reserves(Changes) (FEB)

    Low $565M

    10:00EUR Euro-Zone RetailSales (YoY) (JAN)

    High -2.9% -3.6%

    10:00EUR Euro-Zone RetailSales (MoM) (JAN)

    Medium 0.3% -0.9%

    15:00USD ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite

    (FEB)

    Medium 55 55.2

    15:00USD IBD/TIPP EconomicOptimism (MAR)

    Low 47.2 47.3

    21:45NZD Value of All BuildingsSA (4Q)

    Low 3.0% 9.6%

    Wed

    Mar 6

    JPY Bankruptcies (YoY)(FEB)

    Medium -5.2%

    GBP New Car Registrations(YoY) (FEB)

    Low 11.5%

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    00:01

    GBP BRC Shop Price Index(YoY) (FEB)

    Low 0.6%

    00:30AUD Gross DomesticProduct (YoY) (4Q)

    High 3.0% 3.1%

    00:30AUD Gross DomesticProduct (QoQ) (4Q)

    High 0.6% 0.5%

    10:00EUR Euro-Zone GrossDomestic Product s.a. (YoY)(4Q P)

    High -0.9% -0.9%

    10:00EUR Euro-Zone GrossDomestic Product s.a.(QoQ) (4Q P)

    High -0.6% -0.6%

    10:00EUR Euro-Zone HouseholdConsumption (QoQ) (4Q P)

    Medium 0.0%

    10:00EUR Euro-Zone GrossFixed Capital (QoQ) (4Q P)

    Medium -0.7%

    10:00EUR Euro-ZoneGovernment Expenditure(QoQ) (4Q P)

    Low -0.2%

    12:00USD MBA Mortgage

    Applications (MAR 1)

    Low -3.8%

    13:15USD ADP EmploymentChange (FEB)

    Medium 168K 192K

    13:15USD Fed's Plosser Speakson Economic Outlook inLancaster, PA

    Low

    15:00CAD Bank of Canada RateDecision (MAR 6)

    High 1.00% 1.00%

    15:00 USD Factory Orders (JAN) Medium -2.2% 1.8%

    15:00 Ivey Purchasing ManagersIndex SA (FEB) Medium 58.9

    15:30USD DOE U.S. GasolineInventories (MAR 1)

    Low -1857K

    15:30USD DOE U.S. DistillateInventory (MAR 1)

    Low 557K

    15:30USD DOE U.S. Crude OilInventories (MAR 1)

    Low 1130K

    15:30USD DOE Cushing OKCrude Inventory (MAR 1)

    Low -75K

    19:00 USD U.S. Federal ReserveReleases Beige Book

    Medium

    22:30AUD AiG Performance ofConstruction Index (FEB)

    Medium 36.2

    23:00NZD QV House Prices(YoY) (FEB)

    Low 6.2%

    23:50JPY Official Reserve Assets(FEB)

    Low $1267.3B

    23:50JPY Japan Buying ForeignStocks (Yen) (MAR 1)

    Low -106.4B

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    23:50

    JPY Japan Buying ForeignBonds (Yen) (MAR 1)

    Low -665.4B

    23:50JPY Foreign Buying JapanStocks (Yen) (MAR 1)

    Low 190.4B

    23:50JPY Foreign Buying JapanBonds (Yen) (MAR 1)

    Low -82.6B

    Thu

    Mar 7

    JPY Bank of Japan RateDecision (MAR 7)

    High 0.10% 0.10%

    EUR German WholesalePrice Index (YoY) (FEB)

    Low 2.3%

    EUR German WholesalePrice Index (MoM) (FEB)

    Low 0.3%

    00:30AUD Trade Balance(Australian dollar) (JAN)

    Medium -427M

    05:00JPY Leading Index (JAN P)(JAN P)

    Medium 93.4

    05:00JPY Coincident Index (JANP) (JAN P)

    Low 92.6

    05:30AUD Foreign Reserves(Australian dollar) (FEB)

    Low A$46.5B

    06:30EUR French MainlandUnemployment Change(4Q)

    Medium 29K

    06:30EUR French ILOUnemployment Rate (4Q)

    Medium 10.3%

    06:30EUR French ILO MainlandUnemployment Rate (4Q)

    Medium 9.9%

    06:30CHF SNB Final Result for2012

    Medium

    06:45CHF Unemployment Rates.a. (FEB)

    Medium 3.1% 3.1%

    06:45CHF Unemployment Rate(FEB)

    Medium 3.4% 3.4%

    07:45EUR French Trade Balance(euros) (JAN)

    Low -4700M -5349M

    08:00CHF Foreign CurrencyReserves (FEB)

    Low -4700M 427.0B

    09:00EUR Italian Producer PriceIndex (YoY) (JAN)

    Low 2.0%

    09:00EUR Italian Producer PriceIndex (MoM) (JAN)

    Low -0.2%

    11:00EUR German FactoryOrders n.s.a. (YoY) (JAN)

    Medium 1.6% -1.8%

    11:00EUR German FactoryOrders s.a. (MoM) (JAN)

    Low 0.6% 0.8%

    12:00GBP Bank of England RateDecision (MAR 7)

    High 0.50% 0.50%

    12:00GBP BOE Asset Purchase

    Target (MAR)

    High 375B 375B

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    12:30

    USD RBC ConsumerOutlook Index (MAR)

    Low 49.5

    12:30USD Challenger Job Cuts(YoY) (FEB)

    Low -24.4%

    12:45EUR European CentralBank Rate Decision (MAR7)

    High 0.8% 0.75%

    12:45EUR ECB Deposit FacilityRate (MAR 7)

    Medium 0.00% 0.0%

    13:30 USD Trade Balance (JAN) Medium -$43.0B -$38.5B

    13:30USD Initial Jobless Claims(MAR 3)

    Medium 355K 344K

    13:30USD Unit Labor Costs (4QF)

    Low 4.3% 4.5%

    13:30USD Non-Farm Productivity(4Q F)

    Low -1.5% -2.0%

    13:30USD Continuing Claims(FEB 24)

    Low 3110K 3074K

    13:30CAD InternationalMerchandise Trade(Canadian dollar) (JAN)

    Low -0.55B -0.90B

    13:30CAD Building Permits(MoM) (JAN)

    Low -11.2%

    15:30USD EIA Natural GasStorage Change (MAR 1)

    Low -171

    17:00USD Household Change inNet Worth (4Q)

    Low $1722B

    20:00USD Consumer Credit(JAN)

    Medium $14.500B $14.595B

    21:45NZD Manufacturing Activity(4Q)

    Medium 1.6%

    21:45NZD Manufacturing ActivityVolume SA (QoQ) (4Q)

    Low 2.6%

    23:50JPY Nominal GrossDomestic Product (QoQ)(4Q F)

    High -0.4%

    23:50JPY Gross DomesticProduct (QoQ) (4Q F)

    High -0.1%

    23:50JPY Gross DomesticProduct Annualized (4Q F) High -0.4%

    23:50JPY Trade Balance - BOPBasis (Yen) (JAN)

    Medium -1512.3B -567.6B

    23:50JPY Current Account Total(Yen) (JAN)

    Low -626.0B -264.1B

    23:50JPY Current AccountBalance (YoY) (JAN)

    Low 34.2% -199.4%

    23:50JPY Bank Lending inclTrusts (YoY) (FEB)

    Low

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    23:50

    JPY Bank Lending Banksex-Trust (FEB)

    Low 1.6%

    23:50JPY Adjusted CurrentAccount Total (Yen) (JAN)

    Low 112.2B 98.1B

    23:50JPY Gross DomesticProduct Deflator (YoY) (4QF)

    Low -0.6%

    Fri

    Mar 8

    JPY Eco Watchers Survey:Outlook (FEB)

    Medium 56.5

    JPY Eco Watchers Survey:Current (FEB)

    Medium 49.5

    EUR Bank of FranceBusiness Sentiment (FEB)

    Medium 96 95

    CNY Trade Balance (USD)(FEB)

    Medium -$8.85B $29.15B

    CNY Imports (YoY) (FEB) Low -8.2% 28.8%

    CNY Exports (YoY) (FEB) Low 7.6% 25.0%

    07:45EUR French CentralGovernment Balance(euros) (JAN)

    Low -87.2B

    08:15CHF Consumer Price Index(YoY) (FEB)

    Medium -0.30% -0.3%

    08:15CHF CPI - EU Harmonised(YoY) (FEB)

    Medium -0.1%

    08:15CHF Consumer Price Index(MoM) (FEB)

    Low 0.30% -0.3%

    08:15CHF CPI - EU Harmonised(MoM) (FEB)

    Low -0.5%

    11:00EUR German IndustrialProduction n.s.a. and w.d.a.(YoY) (JAN)

    Medium -1.2% -1.1%

    11:00EUR German IndustrialProduction s.a. (MoM)(JAN)

    Low 0.4% 0.3%

    13:15 CAD Housing Starts (FEB) Medium 172.0K 160.6K

    13:30USD Unemployment Rate(FEB)

    High 7.9% 7.9%

    13:30 USD Change in Non-farmPayrolls (FEB)

    High 155K 157K

    13:30CAD Unemployment Rate(FEB)

    High 7.1% 7.0%

    13:30CAD Net Change inEmployment (FEB)

    High 7.5K -21.9K

    13:30USD Change in PrivatePayrolls (FEB)

    Medium 167K 166K

    13:30USD Average HourlyEarning All Employees(YoY) (FEB)

    Medium 2.1% 2.1%

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    13:30

    CAD Participation Rate(FEB)

    Medium 66.6

    13:30CAD Part Time EmploymentChange (FEB)

    Medium -1.4

    13:30CAD Full Time EmploymentChange (FEB)

    Medium -20.6

    13:30Average Hourly Earning AllEmployees (MoM) (FEB)

    Low 0.2% 0.20%

    13:30 USD UnderemploymentRate (U6) (FEB)

    Low 14.4%

    13:30USD Change inManufacturing Payrolls(FEB)

    Low 10K 4K

    13:30USD Change in HouseholdEmployment (FEB)

    Low 17

    13:30USD Average Weekly HoursAll Employees (FEB)

    Low 3440.0% 34.4

    13:30CAD Labor Productivity(QoQ) (4Q)

    Low -0.5%

    15:00USD Wholesale Inventories(JAN)

    Low 0.3% -0.1%

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