Daily i Forex Report 1 by EPIC RESEARCH 07.03.13

7/29/2019 Daily i Forex Report 1 by EPIC RESEARCH 07.03.13

1/15

DAILY I FOREX REPORT7

TH

MARCH 2013

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2/15

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Forex: AUD/USD BreaksHigher As Dow Hits RecordWait On ECB For EUR/USD

Pound Falls Below 1.50 AsUS Dollar Corrects EarlierLossesDollar Threatening Serious

Reversal as Dow Index HitsRecord HighEuro Looks to GDP Revision to Setthe Stage for ECB Rate DecisionRevised fourth-quarter Euro zone GDP figuresheadline the economic calendar. Economists expect

confirmation of initial estimates showing a 0.6contraction. That would mark the deepest quarterlydownturn in nearly four years. A worse-than-expectedresult may weigh on the Euro as traders speculate theECB may move to open the door for stimulus tocounteract deepening recession and offset de-factotightening from LTRO repayments. With that said, thecentral bank has been reluctant to ease against abackdrop rising sovereign risk, claiming swelling riskpremiums priced into bond yields undermine policytransmission. Recent political jitters in Italy have seen

yields on the countrys benchmark 10-year note trendhigher, hinting Mario Draghi may prefer to remain onthe sidelines until a concrete government emergesand funding stress unwinds. An upgrade on the GDPfigure could thus drive the single currency higher,giving the bank just enough space to stay put thisweek.

TRADING TIPS

SELL EURUSD BELOW

1.3025 tgs

1.3005/1.2985 sl 1.3055

SELL USDJPY BELOW

92.90 tgt 92.70/92.50

SL 93.20

SELL GBPUSD BELOW

1.5065 tgt

1.5045/1.5025 SL

1.5095

HEADLINES


3/15

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 1.3047

HIGH: 1.3070

LOW: 1.3024

CLOSE: 1.3033

EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND : BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD =>-.000(BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 45(BEARISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY EURUSD CHART


4/15

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 93.29

HIGH: 93.50

LOW: 93.00

CLOSE: 93.42

USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND: BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD => -0.02( BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>60(BEARISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY USDJPY CHART


5/15

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 1.5136

HIGH: 1.5155

LOW: 1.5063

CLOSE: 1.5090

GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND: BULLISH


MACD => .005( BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 42(BEARIISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART


6/15

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 0.8620

HIGH: 0.8649

LOW: 0.8620

CLOSE: 0.8630

EURGBP LOOKS DOWNWARDS

TREND: BEARISH


MACD =>-.003(BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>56(BEARISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY EURGBP CHART


7/15

HOURLY USDINDEX CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 82.0420

HIGH: 82.2030

LOW: 81.9250

CLOSE: 82.1430

USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS

MACD =>0.79(BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>59(BULLISH SIGNAL)


8/15

Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes

Mon

Mar 4

GBP BoE/GfK Inflation Next12 Mths (FEB)

Medium 3.5%

00:00NZD ANZ Commodity Price(FEB)

Low 1.0% 0.3%

00:01GBP Lloyds BusinessBarometer (FEB)

Low 13 15

00:01GBP Hometrack HousingSurvey (YoY) (FEB)

Low -0.1% -0.3%

00:01 GBP Hometrack HousingSurvey (MoM) (FEB)

Low 0.1% 0.0%

00:30JPY Confirmation Hearingfor BoJ Governor NomineeKuroda

Medium

00:30 AUD Inventories (4Q) Low 0.2% 0.6% 1.2%

00:30AUD Company OperatingProfit (QoQ) (4Q)

Low -1.0% -1.0% -2.7%

00:30AUD Building Approvals(YoY) (JAN)

Low 9.9% 8.1% 12.4%

00:30AUD Building Approvals(MoM) (JAN)

Low -2.4% 2.8% -1.7%

00:30AUD ANZ JobAdvertisements (MoM)(FEB)

Low 3.0% 0.6%

09:30GBP Purchasing ManagerIndex Construction (FEB)

Medium 46.8 49 48.7

09:30EUR Euro-Zone SentixInvestor Confidence (MAR)

Medium -10.6 -4.3 -3.9

10:00EUR Euro-Zone ProducerPrice Index (YoY) (JAN)

High 1.9% 1.9% 2.1%

10:00EUR Euro-Zone ProducerPrice Index (MoM) (JAN)

Medium 0.6% 0.5% -0.2%

14:00EUR Euro-Area FinanceMinisters Meet in Brussels

High

14:45 USD ISM New York (FEB) Low 56.7

22:30AUD AiG Performance ofService Index (FEB)

Medium 45.3

Tue

Mar 5

GBP Halifax Plc House

Prices s.a. (MoM) (FEB)

Low 0.2% -0.2%

ECONOMIC CALENDER


9/15

GBP Halifax House Price(3MoY) (FEB)

Low 1.7% 1.3%

00:01GBP BRC Sales Like-For-Like YoY (FEB)

Low 1.0% 1.9%

00:30AUD Retail Sales s.a.(MoM) (JAN)

Medium 0.4% -0.2%

00:30AUD Current AccountBalance (Australian Dollar)(4Q)

Medium -15300M -14900M

00:30AUD Australia Net Exportsof GDP (4Q)

Low 0.5 0.1

01:30JPY Labor Cash Earnings(YoY) (JAN)

Medium -1.7%

01:45 HSBC Services PMI (FEB) Medium 54

03:30AUD Reserve Bank ofAustralia Rate Decision(MAR 5)

High 3.00% 3.00%

08:45EUR Italian PurchasingManager Index Services

(FEB)

Medium 43.5 43.9

08:50EUR French PurchasingManager Index Services(FEB F)

Medium 42.7 42.7

08:55EUR German PurchasingManager Index Services(FEB F)

Medium 54.1 54.1

09:00EUR Euro-Zone PurchasingManager Index Services(FEB F)

Medium 47.3 47.3

09:00EUR Euro-Zone PurchasingManager Index Composite(FEB F)

Medium 47.3 47.3

09:30GBP Purchasing ManagerIndex Services (FEB)

Medium 51 51.5

09:30GBP Official Reserves(Changes) (FEB)

Low $565M

10:00EUR Euro-Zone RetailSales (YoY) (JAN)

High -2.9% -3.6%

10:00EUR Euro-Zone RetailSales (MoM) (JAN)

Medium 0.3% -0.9%

15:00USD ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite

(FEB)

Medium 55 55.2

15:00USD IBD/TIPP EconomicOptimism (MAR)

Low 47.2 47.3

21:45NZD Value of All BuildingsSA (4Q)

Low 3.0% 9.6%

Wed

Mar 6

JPY Bankruptcies (YoY)(FEB)

Medium -5.2%

GBP New Car Registrations(YoY) (FEB)

Low 11.5%


10/15

00:01

GBP BRC Shop Price Index(YoY) (FEB)

Low 0.6%

00:30AUD Gross DomesticProduct (YoY) (4Q)

High 3.0% 3.1%

00:30AUD Gross DomesticProduct (QoQ) (4Q)

High 0.6% 0.5%

10:00EUR Euro-Zone GrossDomestic Product s.a. (YoY)(4Q P)

High -0.9% -0.9%

10:00EUR Euro-Zone GrossDomestic Product s.a.(QoQ) (4Q P)

High -0.6% -0.6%

10:00EUR Euro-Zone HouseholdConsumption (QoQ) (4Q P)

Medium 0.0%

10:00EUR Euro-Zone GrossFixed Capital (QoQ) (4Q P)

Medium -0.7%

10:00EUR Euro-ZoneGovernment Expenditure(QoQ) (4Q P)

Low -0.2%

12:00USD MBA Mortgage

Applications (MAR 1)

Low -3.8%

13:15USD ADP EmploymentChange (FEB)

Medium 168K 192K

13:15USD Fed's Plosser Speakson Economic Outlook inLancaster, PA

Low

15:00CAD Bank of Canada RateDecision (MAR 6)

High 1.00% 1.00%

15:00 USD Factory Orders (JAN) Medium -2.2% 1.8%

15:00 Ivey Purchasing ManagersIndex SA (FEB) Medium 58.9

15:30USD DOE U.S. GasolineInventories (MAR 1)

Low -1857K

15:30USD DOE U.S. DistillateInventory (MAR 1)

Low 557K

15:30USD DOE U.S. Crude OilInventories (MAR 1)

Low 1130K

15:30USD DOE Cushing OKCrude Inventory (MAR 1)

Low -75K

19:00 USD U.S. Federal ReserveReleases Beige Book

Medium

22:30AUD AiG Performance ofConstruction Index (FEB)

Medium 36.2

23:00NZD QV House Prices(YoY) (FEB)

Low 6.2%

23:50JPY Official Reserve Assets(FEB)

Low $1267.3B

23:50JPY Japan Buying ForeignStocks (Yen) (MAR 1)

Low -106.4B


11/15

23:50

JPY Japan Buying ForeignBonds (Yen) (MAR 1)

Low -665.4B

23:50JPY Foreign Buying JapanStocks (Yen) (MAR 1)

Low 190.4B

23:50JPY Foreign Buying JapanBonds (Yen) (MAR 1)

Low -82.6B

Thu

Mar 7

JPY Bank of Japan RateDecision (MAR 7)

High 0.10% 0.10%

EUR German WholesalePrice Index (YoY) (FEB)

Low 2.3%

EUR German WholesalePrice Index (MoM) (FEB)

Low 0.3%

00:30AUD Trade Balance(Australian dollar) (JAN)

Medium -427M

05:00JPY Leading Index (JAN P)(JAN P)

Medium 93.4

05:00JPY Coincident Index (JANP) (JAN P)

Low 92.6

05:30AUD Foreign Reserves(Australian dollar) (FEB)

Low A$46.5B

06:30EUR French MainlandUnemployment Change(4Q)

Medium 29K

06:30EUR French ILOUnemployment Rate (4Q)

Medium 10.3%

06:30EUR French ILO MainlandUnemployment Rate (4Q)

Medium 9.9%

06:30CHF SNB Final Result for2012

Medium

06:45CHF Unemployment Rates.a. (FEB)

Medium 3.1% 3.1%

06:45CHF Unemployment Rate(FEB)

Medium 3.4% 3.4%

07:45EUR French Trade Balance(euros) (JAN)

Low -4700M -5349M

08:00CHF Foreign CurrencyReserves (FEB)

Low -4700M 427.0B

09:00EUR Italian Producer PriceIndex (YoY) (JAN)

Low 2.0%

09:00EUR Italian Producer PriceIndex (MoM) (JAN)

Low -0.2%

11:00EUR German FactoryOrders n.s.a. (YoY) (JAN)

Medium 1.6% -1.8%

11:00EUR German FactoryOrders s.a. (MoM) (JAN)

Low 0.6% 0.8%

12:00GBP Bank of England RateDecision (MAR 7)

High 0.50% 0.50%

12:00GBP BOE Asset Purchase

Target (MAR)

High 375B 375B


12/15

12:30

USD RBC ConsumerOutlook Index (MAR)

Low 49.5

12:30USD Challenger Job Cuts(YoY) (FEB)

Low -24.4%

12:45EUR European CentralBank Rate Decision (MAR7)

High 0.8% 0.75%

12:45EUR ECB Deposit FacilityRate (MAR 7)

Medium 0.00% 0.0%

13:30 USD Trade Balance (JAN) Medium -$43.0B -$38.5B

13:30USD Initial Jobless Claims(MAR 3)

Medium 355K 344K

13:30USD Unit Labor Costs (4QF)

Low 4.3% 4.5%

13:30USD Non-Farm Productivity(4Q F)

Low -1.5% -2.0%

13:30USD Continuing Claims(FEB 24)

Low 3110K 3074K

13:30CAD InternationalMerchandise Trade(Canadian dollar) (JAN)

Low -0.55B -0.90B

13:30CAD Building Permits(MoM) (JAN)

Low -11.2%

15:30USD EIA Natural GasStorage Change (MAR 1)

Low -171

17:00USD Household Change inNet Worth (4Q)

Low $1722B

20:00USD Consumer Credit(JAN)

Medium $14.500B $14.595B

21:45NZD Manufacturing Activity(4Q)

Medium 1.6%

21:45NZD Manufacturing ActivityVolume SA (QoQ) (4Q)

Low 2.6%

23:50JPY Nominal GrossDomestic Product (QoQ)(4Q F)

High -0.4%

23:50JPY Gross DomesticProduct (QoQ) (4Q F)

High -0.1%

23:50JPY Gross DomesticProduct Annualized (4Q F) High -0.4%

23:50JPY Trade Balance - BOPBasis (Yen) (JAN)

Medium -1512.3B -567.6B

23:50JPY Current Account Total(Yen) (JAN)

Low -626.0B -264.1B

23:50JPY Current AccountBalance (YoY) (JAN)

Low 34.2% -199.4%

23:50JPY Bank Lending inclTrusts (YoY) (FEB)

Low


13/15

23:50

JPY Bank Lending Banksex-Trust (FEB)

Low 1.6%

23:50JPY Adjusted CurrentAccount Total (Yen) (JAN)

Low 112.2B 98.1B

23:50JPY Gross DomesticProduct Deflator (YoY) (4QF)

Low -0.6%

Fri

Mar 8

JPY Eco Watchers Survey:Outlook (FEB)

Medium 56.5

JPY Eco Watchers Survey:Current (FEB)

Medium 49.5

EUR Bank of FranceBusiness Sentiment (FEB)

Medium 96 95

CNY Trade Balance (USD)(FEB)

Medium -$8.85B $29.15B

CNY Imports (YoY) (FEB) Low -8.2% 28.8%

CNY Exports (YoY) (FEB) Low 7.6% 25.0%

07:45EUR French CentralGovernment Balance(euros) (JAN)

Low -87.2B

08:15CHF Consumer Price Index(YoY) (FEB)

Medium -0.30% -0.3%

08:15CHF CPI - EU Harmonised(YoY) (FEB)

Medium -0.1%

08:15CHF Consumer Price Index(MoM) (FEB)

Low 0.30% -0.3%

08:15CHF CPI - EU Harmonised(MoM) (FEB)

Low -0.5%

11:00EUR German IndustrialProduction n.s.a. and w.d.a.(YoY) (JAN)

Medium -1.2% -1.1%

11:00EUR German IndustrialProduction s.a. (MoM)(JAN)

Low 0.4% 0.3%

13:15 CAD Housing Starts (FEB) Medium 172.0K 160.6K

13:30USD Unemployment Rate(FEB)

High 7.9% 7.9%

13:30 USD Change in Non-farmPayrolls (FEB)

High 155K 157K

13:30CAD Unemployment Rate(FEB)

High 7.1% 7.0%

13:30CAD Net Change inEmployment (FEB)

High 7.5K -21.9K

13:30USD Change in PrivatePayrolls (FEB)

Medium 167K 166K

13:30USD Average HourlyEarning All Employees(YoY) (FEB)

Medium 2.1% 2.1%


14/15

13:30

CAD Participation Rate(FEB)

Medium 66.6

13:30CAD Part Time EmploymentChange (FEB)

Medium -1.4

13:30CAD Full Time EmploymentChange (FEB)

Medium -20.6

13:30Average Hourly Earning AllEmployees (MoM) (FEB)

Low 0.2% 0.20%

13:30 USD UnderemploymentRate (U6) (FEB)

Low 14.4%

13:30USD Change inManufacturing Payrolls(FEB)

Low 10K 4K

13:30USD Change in HouseholdEmployment (FEB)

Low 17

13:30USD Average Weekly HoursAll Employees (FEB)

Low 3440.0% 34.4

13:30CAD Labor Productivity(QoQ) (4Q)

Low -0.5%

15:00USD Wholesale Inventories(JAN)

Low 0.3% -0.1%

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15/15

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Daily i Forex Report 1 by EPIC RESEARCH 07.03.13

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Transcript of Daily i Forex Report 1 by EPIC RESEARCH 07.03.13