Daily i-forex-report-by epic research 28 feb 2013

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DAILY I FOREX REPORT 28 TH FEBRUARY 2013 WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO +91 9752199966

Transcript of Daily i-forex-report-by epic research 28 feb 2013

DAILY I FOREX REPORT 28

TH

FEBRUARY 2013

WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO +91 9752199966

WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO +91 9752199966

Euro at Risk on Italian Bond Sale, Pound Sold Before GDP Data

Forex: USD/JPY And S&P 500 Well Positioned For Risk Aversion

Forex News: USD/JPY Unmoved on Retail Trade Report

Euro at Risk on Italian Bond Sale, Pound Sold Before GDP Data

Italy remains in focus as Rome prepares to sell €6.5 billion in 5- and 10-year bonds. Traders will keep a close eye on average yield and bid-to-cover readings, with a marked pickup in borrowing costs and/or a drop in demand likely to be seen as signs of rising sovereign risk amid political uncertainty in the wake of the weekend’s election. Needless to say, such an outcome bodes ill for the Euro.

TRADING TIPS

BUY EURUSD ABOVE

1.3122 tgs

1.3142/1.3162 sl 1.3092

SELL USDJPY BELOW

91.59 tgt 91.39/91.19

SL 91.89

SELL GBPUSD BELOW

1.5080 tgt

1.5060/1.5040 SL

1.5110

HEADLINES

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 1.3069

HIGH: 1.3122

LOW: 1.3041

CLOSE: 1.3091

EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD

TREND : BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS

MACD =>-.0006(BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI => (BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 92.11

HIGH: 92.26

LOW: 91.59

CLOSE: 91.61

USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND: BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD => -0.02( BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>39(BEARISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 1.5130

HIGH: 1.5165

LOW: 1.5080

CLOSE: 1.5139

GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD => .0002( BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 51(BEARIISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 0.8637

HIGH: 0.8673

LOW: 0.8626

CLOSE: 0.8645

EURGBP LOOKS DOWNWARDS

TREND: BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD =>-.0002(BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>40(BEARISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY EURGBP CHART

HOURLY USDINDEX CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 81.8780

HIGH: 81.9180

LOW: 81.5650

CLOSE: 81.7160

USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS

MACD =>0.217(BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>45(BULLISH SIGNAL)

Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes

Mon

Feb 25 01:45

CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (FEB)

Medium 50.4 52.2 52.3

09:30

GBP BBA Loans for House Purchase (JAN)

Medium 32288 34000 33440

10:00

EUR Italy to Sell 2014 Bonds and 2021, 2026 I/L Bonds

Medium

13:30

USD Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (JAN)

Medium

0.02

14:00

EUR Italian Voting Ends, Exit Polls to be Released

High

15:30

USD Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (FEB)

Low

3.0 5.5

21:15

RBA Assistant Governor Debelle

Addresses Business School

Low

Tue Feb 26

AUD APEC Finance and Central Bank Deputies' Meeting

Medium

00:00

USD Fed's Lockhart Speaks on Economy in

Tennessee

Low

GBP Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) (FEB)

Low

-0.3%

GBP Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) (FEB)

Low

0.0%

02:00

NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand 2-Year Inflation Expectation (1Q)

High

2.3%

05:00

JPY Small Business Confidence (FEB)

Medium

44.3

11:00

GBP CBI Reported Sales (FEB)

Low

16 17

14:00

USD House Price Purchase Index (QoQ) (4Q)

Medium

1.1%

14:00

USD House Price Index

(MoM) (DEC) Medium

0.6% 0.6%

14:00

USD S&P/Case-Shiller US Home Price Index (YoY) (4Q)

Low

7.00% 3.64%

ECONOMIC CALENDER

14:00

USD S&P/Case-Shiller US Home Price Index

(4Q)

Low

135.67

14:00

USD S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (DEC)

Low

145.82

14:00

USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (YoY) (DEC)

Low

6.6% 5.52%

14:00

USD S&P/CS 20 City s.a. (MoM) (DEC)

Low

0.6% 0.63%

15:00

USD Fed's Bernanke Testifies at Senate Banking Committee

High

15:00

USD Consumer Confidence (FEB)

High

62 58.6

15:00

USD New Home Sales (MoM) (JAN)

Medium

3.0% -7.3%

15:00

USD Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (FEB)

Low

-3 -12

15:00

USD New Home Sales (JAN)

Low

380K 369K

21:45

NZD Trade Balance (New Zealand dollars) (JAN)

Medium

125M 486M

21:45

NZD Balance (YTD)

(New Zealand dollars) (JAN)

Medium

-897M -1208M

21:45

NZD Net Migration s.a. (JAN)

Low

0

21:45

NZD Imports (New Zealand dollars) (JAN)

Low

3.50B 3.58B

21:45

NZD Exports (New Zealand dollars) (JAN)

Low

3.60B 4.07B

23:50

JPY Retail Trade (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

-1.6% 0.3%

23:50

JPY Large Retailers'

Sales (JAN) Medium

-0.8% 0.1%

23:50

JPY Retail Trade (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.8% 0.0%

Wed Feb 27

00:30

AUD Construction Work Done (4Q)

Low

1.5% 1.7%

07:00

EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (Mar)

Medium

5.9 5.8

07:00

CHF UBS Consumption Indicator (JAN)

Medium

1.34

07:00

EUR German Import Price Index (YoY)

(JAN)

Low

-0.4% 0.3%

07:00

EUR German Import Price Index (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.5% -0.5%

08:00

CHF KOF Swiss Leading Indicator (FEB)

Medium

1.00 1.05

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (YoY) (JAN)

Low

3.2% 3.3%

09:30

GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (4Q P)

High

0.0% 0.0%

09:30

GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (4Q P)

High

-0.3% -0.3%

09:30

GBP Total Business Investment (YoY) (4Q P)

Medium

5.1%

09:30

GBP Gross Fixed Capital Formation (4Q

P)

Low

0.2% -0.2%

09:30

GBP Government Spending (4Q P)

Low

0.1% 0.8%

09:30

GBP Exports (4Q P) Low

-0.6% 1.2%

09:30

GBP Total Business

Investment (QoQ) (4Q P)

Low

3.8%

09:30

GBP Private Consumption (4Q P)

Low

-0.1% 0.4%

09:30

GBP Index of Services (MoM) (DEC)

Low

0.0% 0.0%

09:30

GBP Index of Services (3Mo3M) (DEC)

Low

0.1% 0.6%

09:30

GBP Imports (4Q P) Low

0.0% -0.4%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Economic Confidence

(FEB)

Medium

89.9 89.2

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Services Confidence (FEB)

Low

-8.8 -8.8

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Confidence (FEB)

Low

-13.1 -13.9

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (FEB F)

Low

-23.6 -23.6

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator (FEB)

Low

-1.02 -1.09

12:00

USD MBA Mortgage Applications (FEB 22)

Low

-1.7%

13:30

USD Durable Goods Orders (JAN)

High

-4.0% 4.6%

13:30

USD Durables Ex Transportation (JAN)

Medium

0.3% 1.3%

13:30

USD Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (JAN)

Low

-0.8% 0.3%

13:30

USD Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air

(JAN)

Low

0.2% 0.2%

15:00

USD Pending Home Sales (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

4.9%

15:00

USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (JAN)

Low

2.0% -4.3%

15:30

USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (FEB 22)

Low

-2884K

15:30

USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (FEB 22)

Low

-2277K

15:30

USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (FEB 22)

Low

4143K

15:30

USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (FEB 22)

Low

417K

21:30

USD Fed's Fisher Speaks on Economy and Monetary Policy in

New York

Low

21:45

NZD Building Permits (MoM) (JAN)

Low

-2.0% 9.4%

23:15

JPY Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing Purchasing Manager

Index (FEB)

Medium

47.7

23:50

JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (JAN P)

Medium

-4.8% -7.9%

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (FEB 22)

Low

-¥414.7B

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (FEB 22)

Low

-¥620.6B

23:50

JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (JAN P)

Low

1.5% 2.4%

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying

Japan Stocks (Yen) (FEB 22)

Low

¥197.9B

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (FEB 22)

Low

-¥181.2B

Thu Feb 28

00:00

AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (JAN)

Medium

6.2%

00:00

NZD ANZ Business Confidence (FEB)

Low

22.7

00:00

NZD ANZ Activity Outlook (FEB)

Low

31.4

00:01

GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (FEB)

Medium

-27 -26

00:30

AUD Private Sector Credit (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

3.6%

00:30

AUD Private Capital Expenditure (4Q)

Medium

3.7% 2.8%

00:30

AUD Average Weekly Wages (YoY) (Nov)

Medium

0.3% 3.4%

00:30

AUD Private Sector Credit (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.4%

00:30

AUD Average Weekly Wages (QoQ) (Nov)

Low

1.0% 0.4%

01:30

JPY BOJ Board MembeJPY Kiuchi Speaks to Business Leaders

Low

01:35

CNY MNI February

Business Sentiment Indicator

Low

02:00

NZD Money Supply M3 (YoY) (JAN)

Low

6.0%

04:00

JPY Vehicle Production (YoY) (JAN)

Low

-17.2%

05:00

JPY Housing Starts (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

8.8% 10.0%

05:00

JPY Annualized Housing Starts (JAN)

Medium

0.894M 0.880M

05:00

JPY Construction Orders (YoY) (JAN)

Low

4.8%

06:45

CHF Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (4Q)

High

0.9% 1.4%

06:45

CHF Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (4Q)

Medium

0.0% 0.6%

08:55

EUR German Unemployment Change (FEB)

High

0K -16K

08:55

EUR German Unemployment Rate s.a. (FEB)

Medium

6.8% 6.8%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index

(YoY) (JAN)

High

2.0% 2.0%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) (JAN)

High

1.5% 1.5%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JAN)

Medium

-1.0% 0.4%

10:00

CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

-0.3%

10:00

CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (JAN)

Medium

0.1%

13:00

EUR German

Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB P)

High

1.7% 1.7%

13:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (YoY)

High

1.7% 1.9%

(FEB P)

13:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (FEB P)

Medium

0.7% -0.5%

13:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (MoM) (FEB P)

Medium

0.7% -0.7%

13:30

USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index (4Q S)

High

0.6% 0.6%

13:30

USD Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (4Q S)

High

0.5% -0.1%

13:30

USD Personal

Consumption (4Q S) Medium

2.3% 2.2%

13:30

USD Initial Jobless Claims (FEB 24)

Medium

360K 362K

13:30

USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (QoQ) (4Q S)

Medium

0.9% 0.9%

13:30

CAD Current Account (BoP) (Canadian dollar) (4Q)

Medium

-$18.9B

13:30

USD Continuing Claims (FEB 17)

Low

3140K 3148K

13:30

CAD Raw Materials

Price Index (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.9% -2.0%

13:30

CAD Industrial Product Price (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.2% 0.0%

14:00

USD NAPM-Milwaukee (FEB)

Low

51.3

14:45

USD Chicago Purchasing Manager (FEB)

Low

54.1 55.6

15:30

USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (FEB 22)

Low

-127

16:00

USD Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity (FEB)

Low

-2

21:45

NZD Terms of Trade Index (QoQ) (4Q)

Medium

1.4% -3.2%

22:30

AUD AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index

(FEB)

Medium

40.2

23:00

AUD RPData-Rismark House PX Actual (FEB)

Low

23:30

JPY National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JAN)

High

-0.2% -0.1%

23:30

JPY National Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

-0.7% -0.6%

23:30

JPY National Consumer Price Index

Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

-0.2% -0.2%

23:30

JPY Jobless Rate (JAN)

Medium

4.2% 4.2%

23:30

JPY Household Spending (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

0.4% -0.7%

23:30

JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB)

Low

-0.6% -0.6%

23:30

JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (FEB)

Low

-1.0% -0.9%

23:30

JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (FEB)

Low

-0.5% -0.5%

23:30

JPY Job-To-Applicant Ratio (JAN)

Low

0.83 0.82

23:50

JPY Capital Spending excl Software (4Q)

Medium

-6.5% 2.4%

23:50

JPY Capital Spending (4Q)

Medium

-7.2% 2.2%

23:50

JPY Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (JAN)

Low

1.0%

Fri Mar 1

JPY Official Reserve

Assets (FEB) Low

$1267.3B

01:00

CNY Manufacturing PMI (FEB)

High

50.5 50.4

01:00

USD Fed's Evans Speaks in Des Moines

Low

01:45

CNY HSBC Manufacturing PMI (FEB)

Medium

52.3

05:00

JPY Vehicle Sales (YoY) (FEB)

Low

-12.9%

05:30

AUD RBA Commodity Price Index (FEB)

Low

90.3

05:30

AUD RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY) (FEB)

Low

-6.4%

07:00

GBP Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

-0.2% 0.0%

07:00

EUR German Retail Sales (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

-1.7% -4.7%

07:00

GBP Nationwide House Prices s.a. (MoM) (FEB)

Low

0.2% 0.5%

07:00

EUR German Retail Sales (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.9% -1.7%

08:30

CHF SVME-Purchasing Managers Index (FEB)

Medium

52.1 52.5

08:45

EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index

Manufacturing (FEB)

Low

47.6 47.8

08:50

EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (FEB F)

Low

43.6 43.6

08:55

EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (FEB F)

Medium

50.1 50.1

09:00

EUR Italian Unemployment Rate s.a. (4Q)

Medium

10.6%

09:00

EUR Italian Unemployment Rate

s.a. (JAN P)

Medium

11.2%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (FEB F)

Medium

47.8 47.8

09:30

GBP Purchasing Manager Index

Manufacturing (FEB)

Medium

51 50.8

09:30

GBP Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (JAN)

Medium

0.8B 1.0B

09:30

GBP Net Consumer Credit (JAN)

Medium

0.2B 0.6B

09:30

GBP Mortgage

Approvals (JAN) Medium

56.5K 55.8K

09:30

GBP M4 Money Supply (YoY) (JAN)

Low

-1.0%

09:30

GBP M4 Money Supply (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.7%

09:30

GBP M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (JAN)

Low

3.8%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (JAN)

Medium

11.8% 11.7%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

1.9% 2.0%

11:00

EUR Italian Annual Gross Domestic Product (2012)

Medium

-2.2% 0.4%

13:30

CAD Quarterly Gross Domestic Product Annualized (4Q)

High

0.7% 0.6%

13:30

CAD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (DEC)

High

1.3%

13:30

USD Personal Spending (JAN)

Medium

0.2% 0.2%

13:30

USD Personal Income

(JAN) Medium

-2.0% 2.6%

13:30

USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

1.3% 1.4%

13:30

CAD Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (DEC)

Medium

-0.1% 0.3%

13:30

USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (YoY) (JAN)

Low

1.2% 1.3%

13:30

USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.1% 0.0%

13:30

USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.1% 0.0%

13:58

USD Markit US PMI

Final (FEB) Medium

14:55

USD U. of Michigan Confidence (FEB F)

Medium

76.3 76.3

15:00

USD ISM Manufacturing (FEB)

High

52.5 53.1

15:00

USD ISM Prices Paid (FEB)

Medium

57 56.5

15:00

USD Construction Spending (MoM) (JAN)

Medium

0.5% 0.9%

22:00

USD Total Vehicle Sales (FEB)

Low

15.05M 15.23M

22:00

USD Domestic Vehicle Sales (FEB)

Low

11.90M 12.08M

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