DAILY I FOREX REPORT 15

TH

FEBRUARY 2013

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Euro May Fall As Deepening Recession Drives ECB Easing Bets

Dollar At Risk Below 2012 High, S&P 500 Looking Top-Heavy

Euro Sets a 2-Week Low as the Euro-Zone Recession Continues

THE TAKEAWAY: Euro-zone GDP declines 0.6% in Q4, more than expected -> ECB predicts a recovery later in 2013 -> Euro declines to a 2-week low

The Euro-zone economy contracted for the third straight quarter in Q4, thereby extending

the area’s technical recession. The gross domestic product declined 0.6% over the quarter (seasonally adjusted), the highest quarterly decline in nearly 4-years, and the decline was worse than an expected 0.4% contraction and Q3’s 0.1% decline. The Euro-zone GDP dropped 0.9% from Q4 2011 according to a Eurostat initial estimate.

TRADING TIPS

SELL EURUSD

BELOW 1.3320 tgs

1.3305/1.3290 sl

1.3340

BUY USDJPY ABOVE

93.71 tgt

93.86/94.06 SL 93.57

SELL GBPUSD

BELOW 1.5492 tgt

1.5478/1.5464 SL

1.5506

HEADLINES

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 1.3445

HIGH: 1.3455

LOW: 1.3320

CLOSE: 1.3330

EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND : BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD =>. 0002(BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 70(BEARISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 93.24

HIGH: 93.71

LOW: 92.13

CLOSE: 93.45

USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS

MACD => 0005( BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>55(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 1.5532

HIGH: 1.5543

LOW: 1.5492

CLOSE: 1.5506

GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND: BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD => .-0011( BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 27(BEARISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 0.8656

HIGH: 0.8666

LOW: 0.8586

CLOSE: 0.8592

EURGBP LOOKS DOWNWARDS

TREND: BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD =>.0017(BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>81(BEARISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY EURGBP CHART

HOURLY USDINDEX CHART

ECONOMIC CALENDER

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 80.0700

HIGH: 80.6210

LOW: 80.0620

CLOSE: 80.5920

USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS

MACD =>0.045(BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>75(BULLISH SIGNAL)

Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes

Mon

Feb 11 00:30

AUD Home Loans (DEC)

Medium -1.5% 0.0% -0.7%

00:30

AUD Value of Loans (MoM) (DEC)

Low -2.7%

0.5%

00:30

AUD Investment Lending (DEC)

Low -2.4%

-3.2%

13:30

EUR Euro-Area Finance Ministers Meet in Brussels

High

21:45

NZD NZ Card Spending (MoM) (JAN)

Medium

0.4%

21:45

NZD NZ Card Spending - Retail (MoM) (JAN)

Medium

0.3% 0.3%

23:50

JPY Japan Money Stock M3 (YoY) (JAN)

Low

2.3% 2.2%

23:50

JPY Japan Money

Stock M2+CD (YoY) (JAN)

Low

2.6% 2.6%

Tue Feb 12

EUR German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (JAN)

Low

3.2%

EUR German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.0%

00:01

GBP RICS House Price Balance (JAN)

Medium

1% 0.0%

00:30

AUD NAB Business Confidence (JAN)

Medium

3

00:30

AUD RBA Credit Card

Purchases (DEC) Low

$A21.8B

00:30

AUD RBA Credit Card Balances (DEC)

Low

$A49.5B

00:30

AUD NAB Business Conditions (JAN)

Low

-4

06:00

JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (JAN P)

Medium

-27.5%

08:15

CHF Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

-0.3% -0.4%

08:15

CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY)

(JAN)

Medium

-0.3%

08:15

CHF Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JAN)

Low

-0.3% -0.2%

08:15

CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.1%

09:30

GBP Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JAN)

High

2.4% 2.4%

09:30

GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JAN)

High

2.7% 2.7%

09:30

GBP Retail Price Index (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

3.2% 3.1%

09:30

GBP Producer Price Index Output n.s.a. (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

2.0% 2.2%

09:30

GBP Producer Price Index Output Core n.s.a. (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

1.4% 1.5%

09:30

GBP Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JAN)

Medium

-0.5% 0.5%

09:30

GBP Producer Price Index Output n.s.a.

(MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.2% -0.1%

09:30

GBP Producer Price Index Output Core n.s.a. (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.1% 0.0%

09:30

GBP Producer Price Index Input n.s.a. (YoY) (JAN)

Low

1.0% 0.3%

09:30

GBP Producer Price Index Input n.s.a. (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.8% -0.2%

09:30

GBP DCLG UK House Prices (YoY) (DEC)

Low

2.0% 2.1%

09:30

GBP Retail Price Index

(MoM) (JAN) Low

-0.5% 0.5%

09:30

GBP Retail Price Index Ex Mort Int.Payments (YoY) (JAN)

Low

3.1% 3.0%

09:30

GBP Retail Price Index (JAN)

Low

245.6 246.8

12:00

USD Mortgage Delinquencies (4Q)

Low

7.4%

12:00

USD MBA Mortgage Foreclosures (4Q)

Low

4.1%

12:30

USD NFIB Small Business Optimism

(JAN)

Low

89 88

15:00

USD JOLTs Job Openings (DEC)

Low

3676

16:30

USD Fed's George Speaks on the Economy in Nebraska

Low

19:00

USD Monthly Budget Statement (JAN)

Medium

-$2.00B -$27.41B

23:30

AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence (FEB)

Medium

0.6%

23:30

AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (FEB)

Low

100.6

23:50

JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (DEC)

Medium

0.7% -0.3%

23:50

JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price

Index (YoY) (JAN)

Low

-0.3% -0.6%

23:50

JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.2% 0.3%

Wed Feb 13

00:30

USD Fed's Plosser Speaks on Economic Outlook in Stanford

Low

00:30

USD Fed's Lacker Speaks on Economics in Lancaster

Low

08:15

CHF Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (JAN)

Low

1.0% 1.0%

08:15

CHF Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.0% 0.1%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (DEC)

Medium

-2.4% -3.7%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (DEC)

Low

0.2% -0.3%

10:30

GBP Bank of England Inflation Report

High

12:00

USD MBA Mortgage Applications (FEB 8)

Low

13:30

USD Advance Retail

Sales (JAN) High

0.1% 0.5%

13:30

USD Retail Sales Less Autos (JAN)

Medium

0.1% 0.3%

13:30

USD Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas (JAN)

Low

0.4% 0.6%

13:30

USD Retail Sales "Control Group" (JAN)

Low

0.2% 0.6%

13:30

USD Import Price Index (YoY) (JAN)

Low

-1.5%

13:30

USD Import Price Index (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.8% -0.1%

15:00

USD Business Inventories (DEC)

Medium

0.3% 0.3%

15:30

USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (FEB 8)

Low

15:30

USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (FEB 8)

Low

15:30

USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (FEB 8)

Low

15:30

USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (FEB

8)

Low

16:10

USD Fed's Bullard to Speak on Economy at Arkansas State University

Low

21:30

NZD Business NZ Performance of

Manufacturing Index (JAN)

Medium

50.1

21:45

NZD Food Prices (MoM) (JAN)

Low

-0.2%

23:50

JPY Nominal Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (4Q P)

High

0.0% -0.9%

23:50

JPY Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (4Q P)

High

0.1% -0.9%

23:50

JPY Gross Domestic Product Annualized (4Q P)

High

0.4% -3.5%

23:50

JPY Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY) (4Q P)

Low

-0.5% -0.8%

Thu Feb 14

JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision (FEB 14)

High

-0.2% 0.10%

CNY Actual FDI (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

-0.2% -4.5%

00:00

AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation (FEB)

Medium

2.0%

00:00

NZD ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (FEB)

Low

3.1%

00:00

NZD ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (FEB)

Low

118.3

04:00

JPY Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (JAN)

Low

-3.0%

06:30

EUR French Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (4Q P)

Medium

0.5% 0.0%

06:30

EUR French Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (4Q P)

Low

-0.5% 0.1%

07:00

EUR German Gross Domestic Product

w.d.a. (YoY) (4Q P)

High

0.9%

07:00

EUR German Gross Domestic Product n.s.a. (YoY) (4Q P)

High

0.4%

07:00

EUR German Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (4Q P)

Medium

0.2% 0.2%

09:00

EUR ECB Publishes Monthly Report

High

09:00

EUR Italian Gross Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (4Q P)

Medium

-2.4%

09:00

EUR Italian Gross Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a. (QoQ) (4Q P)

Low

-0.2%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a.

(YoY) (4Q A)

High

-0.6%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (4Q A)

Medium

-0.1%

13:30

USD Initial Jobless Claims (FEB 10)

Medium

360K 366K

13:30

USD Continuing Claims (FEB 3)

Low

3200K 3224K

15:30

USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (FEB 8)

Low

-118

21:45

NZD Retail Sales Ex Inflation (QoQ) (4Q)

Medium

-0.4%

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (FEB 8)

Low

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (FEB 8)

Low

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (FEB 8)

Low

¥419.5B

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (FEB 8)

Low

Fri Feb 15

USD Revisions of Producer Price Index

Low

01:35

CNY MNI February Flash Business Sentiment Indicator

Low

02:00

NZD Non Resident Bond Holdings (JAN)

Low

64.0%

04:30

JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (DEC F) (DEC F)

Medium

-7.8%

04:30

JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (DEC F) (DEC F)

Low

2.5%

04:30

JPY Capacity Utilization (MoM) (DEC F) (DEC F)

Low

-0.2%

05:00

USD G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting in Russia

Medium

09:30

GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

0.9% 0.3%

09:30

GBP Retail Sales (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

1.6% 1.1%

09:30

GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.5% -0.1%

09:30

GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.5% -0.3%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Trade Balance s.a. (euros)

(DEC)

Low

10.6B 11.0B

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Trade Balance (euros) (DEC)

Low

12.0B 13.7B

13:30

USD Empire Manufacturing (FEB)

Low

-2 -7.78

13:30

CAD Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) (DEC)

Low

-0.5% 1.7%

14:00

USD Net Long-term TIC Flows (DEC)

Medium

$52.3B

14:00

CAD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (JAN)

Medium

-0.5%

14:00

USD Total Net TIC Flows (DEC)

Low

$27.8B

14:15

USD Manufacturing (SIC) Production (JAN)

Medium

0.2% 0.8%

14:15

USD Industrial Production (JAN)

Medium

0.2% 0.3%

14:15

USD Capacity Utilization (JAN)

Low

78.9% 78.8%

14:55

USD U. of Michigan Confidence (FEB P)

High

74.5 73.8

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