DAILY I FOREX REPORT 7

th

FEBRUARY 2013

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Forex: USD/JPY Soars Above ¥93 After BoJ Governor Steps Down

Dollar Rally On EUR/USD And AUD/USD Requires S&P 500 Go Ahead

EUR/USD Retakes 1.3500 on Risk Hold, BoJ Leverages USD/JPY

EUR/USD Retakes 1.3500 on Risk

Hold, BoJ Leverages USD/JPY

All the technical and market condition elements were lining up for a serious reversal in EURUSD, the yen crosses and other risk-sensitive pairings. However, we couldn't secure the fundamental spark to complete the underlying trend shift: an actual risk aversion drive. Once again, the holdout to an otherwise broad shift in sentiment was the imperfect (and stimulus-laden) US equity indexes. Both the S&P 500 and Dow held conspicuous support levels which allowed for news of an ECB balance sheet reduction and BoJ Governor Shirakawa's accelerated retirement to bolster the heaviest pairs. These catalysts, however, are temporary. Unless individual events continue to print risk-supportive results, the specter of risk aversion will remain. We discuss this and more in today's video.

TRADING TIPS

SELL EURUSD

BELLOW 1.3510 tgs

1.3494/1.3478 sl

1.3530

BUY USDJPY ABOW

94.06 tgt

94.20/94.34 SL 93.86

BUY GBPUSD ABOVE

1.5678 tgt

1.5698/1.5718 SL

1.5658

HEADLINES

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 1.3583

HIGH: 1.3596

LOW: 1.3513

CLOSE: 1.3532

EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD

TREND : BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS

MACD =>. -0009(BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 50(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 93.58

HIGH: 94.06

LOW: 93.46

CLOSE: 93.67

USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS

MACD => 0002( BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>58(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 1.5664

HIGH: 1.5678

LOW: 1.5631

CLOSE: 1.5669

GBPUSD LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEP

MACD => .0005( BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 57(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 0.8671

HIGH: 0.8681

LOW: 0.8631

CLOSE: 0.8637

EURGBP LOOKS UPWARDS

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS

MACD =>.007(BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>49(BULLISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY EURGBP CHART

HOURLY USDINDEX CHART

ECONOMIC CALENDER

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 79.5330

HIGH: 79.8120

LOW: 79.4920

CLOSE: 79.7260

USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS

MACD =>0.0125(BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>64(BULLISH SIGNAL)

Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes

Sun Feb 3

01:00

CNY Non-manufacturing PMI (JAN)

Medium 56.2

56.1

23:30

AUD TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (JAN)

Medium 2.5%

2.4%

23:30

AUD TD Securities

Inflation (MoM) (JAN) Low 0.3%

0.4%

23:50

JPY Monetary Base (YoY) (JAN)

Low 10.9%

11.8%

Mon

Feb 4

GBP Halifax House Price (3MoY) (JAN)

Low

1.6% -0.3%

GBP Halifax Plc House Prices s.a. (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0% 1.3%

00:00

NZD ANZ Commodity Price (JAN)

Low 0.3%

1.0%

00:01

GBP Lloyds Business Barometer (JAN)

Low 15

20

00:30

AUD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (JAN)

Low -0.9%

-2.80%

00:30

AUD Building Approvals (MoM) (DEC)

Low -4.4% 1.0% 3.4%

00:30

AUD Building Approvals (YoY) (DEC)

Low 9.3% 14.9% 14.1%

07:00

CHF UBS Real Estate Bubble Index (4Q)

Low 1.11

1.02

09:30

EUR Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence

(FEB)

Medium -3.9 -1.7 -7

09:30

GBP Purchasing Manager Index Construction (JAN)

Medium 48.7 49.2 48.7

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (DEC)

High 2.1% 2.1% 2.1%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) (DEC)

Medium -0.2% -0.2% -0.2%

14:45

EUR German Chancellor Merkel and Spanish PM Rajoy Hold Press Conference

Medium

15:00

USD Factory Orders (DEC)

Medium

2.3% 0.0%

21:45

NZD Average Hourly Earnings (QoQ) (4Q)

Medium

0.4% 1.4%

21:45

NZD Labor Cost Private Sector (QoQ)

(4Q)

Low

0.5% 0.5%

21:45

NZD Private Wages ex Overtime (QoQ) (4Q)

Low

0.5% 0.5%

22:30

AUD AiG Performance of Service Index (JAN)

Medium

43.2

Tue

Feb 5 00:01

GBP BRC Sales Like-For-Like YoY (JAN)

Low

0.3%

00:30

AUD House Price Index (QoQ) (4Q)

Medium

0.3% 0.3%

00:30

AUD House Price Index (YoY) (4Q)

Medium

0.9% 0.3%

00:30

AUD Trade Balance (Australian dollar) (DEC)

Medium

-800M -2637M

01:45

CNY HSBC Services PMI (JAN)

Medium

51.7

03:30

AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision (FEB 5)

High

3.00% 3.00%

07:00

CHF Trade Balance (Swiss franc) (DEC)

Medium

2.00B 2.90B

07:00

CHF Exports (MoM) (DEC)

Low

6.0%

07:00

CHF Imports (MoM) (DEC)

Low

0.2%

08:45

EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Services (JAN)

Medium

45.8 45.6

08:50

EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (JAN F)

Medium

43.6 43.6

09:30

GBP Purchasing Manager Index Services (JAN)

Medium

49.5 48.9

09:30

GBP Official Reserves (Changes) (JAN)

Low

-$350M

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (DEC)

High

-1.4% -2.6%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (DEC)

Medium

-0.5% 0.1%

15:00

USD ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite (JAN)

Medium

55.0 55.7

15:00

USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (FEB)

Low

46.5 46.5

Wed

Feb 6

GBP New Car Registrations (YoY) (JAN)

Low

3.7%

00:01

GBP BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (JAN)

Low

1.5%

00:30

AUD Retail Sales Ex Inflation(QoQ) (4Q)

Medium

0.3% -0.1%

00:30

AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (DEC)

Medium

0.3% -0.1%

01:30

JPY BOJ Board Member Sato Speech

Low

11:00

EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (DEC)

Medium

-1.2% -1.0%

11:00

EUR German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (DEC)

Low

0.7% -1.8%

12:00

USD MBA Mortgage Applications (FEB 1)

Low

-8.1%

15:00

CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index SA (JAN)

Medium

53.8 52.8

15:30

USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (FEB 1)

Low

284K

15:30

USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (FEB 1)

Low

5947K

15:30

USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (FEB 1)

Low

-2315K

15:30

USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (FEB 1)

Low

-956K

21:45

NZD Employment Change (QoQ) (4Q)

Medium

-0.4%

21:45

NZD Employment

Change (YoY) (4Q) Medium

0.0%

21:45

NZD Unemployment Rate (4Q)

Medium

7.3%

21:45

NZD Participation Rate (QoQ) (4Q)

Low

68.4%

22:30

AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index (JAN)

Medium

38.8

23:50

JPY Machine Orders (MoM) (DEC)

Medium

-0.9% 3.9%

23:50

JPY Machine Orders

(YoY) (DEC) Medium

-4.0% 0.3%

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (FEB 1)

Low

-¥228.8B

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (FEB 1)

Low

¥248.6B

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (FEB 1)

Low

¥663.1B

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (FEB 1)

Low

-¥254.1B

23:50

JPY Official Reserve

Assets (JAN) Low

$1268.1B

Thu

Feb 7

EUR German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.0%

EUR German Wholesale Price Index

(YoY) (JAN)

Low

3.2%

00:30

AUD Employment Change (JAN)

High

6.0K -5.5K

00:30

AUD Unemployment Rate (JAN)

High

5.5% 5.4%

00:30

AUD Full Time Employment Change (JAN)

Medium

-13.8K

00:30

AUD NAB Business Confidence (4Q)

Medium

-2

00:30

AUD Part Time Employment Change

(JAN)

Medium

8.3K

00:30

AUD Participation Rate (JAN)

Low

65.1% 65.1%

05:00

JPY Leading Index (DEC P)

Medium

93.6 92.1

05:00

JPY Coincident Index (DEC P)

Low

92.6 90.2

05:30

AUD Foreign Reserves (Australian dollar) (JAN)

Low

A$47.3B

06:45

CHF SECO Consumer Confidence (JAN)

Medium

-12 -17

07:45

EUR French Trade Balance (euros) (DEC)

Low

-4200M -4334M

08:00

CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (JAN)

Low

428.5B 427.2B

09:30

GBP Industrial

Production (YoY) (DEC)

Medium

-2.2% -2.4%

09:30

GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY) (DEC)

Medium

-2.6% -2.1%

09:30

GBP Visible Trade Balance (Pounds)

(DEC)

Medium

-£9000 -£9164

09:30

GBP Industrial Production (MoM) (DEC)

Low

0.7% 0.3%

09:30

GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (DEC)

Low

0.6% -0.3%

09:30

GBP Total Trade Balance (Pounds) (DEC)

Low

-£3300 -£3466

09:30

GBP Trade Balance Non EU (Pounds) (DEC)

Low

-£4300 -£4519

10:00

EUR European Commission Releases Economic Growth Forecasts (Table)

Medium

11:00

EUR German Industrial Production n.s.a. and

w.d.a. (YoY) (DEC)

Medium

-0.5% -2.9%

11:00

EUR German Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (DEC)

Low

0.2% 0.2%

12:00

GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target (FEB)

High

375B 375B

12:00

GBP Bank of England Rate Decision (FEB 7)

High

0.5% 0.50%

12:45

EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision (FEB 7)

High

0.75% 0.75%

12:45

EUR ECB Deposit Facility Rate (FEB 7)

Low

0.0% 0.00%

13:30

CAD New Housing Price Index (YoY) (DEC)

Medium

2.2%

13:30

USD Initial Jobless Claims (FEB 3)

Medium

360K 368K

13:30

CAD Building Permits (MoM) (DEC)

Low

-17.9%

13:30

CAD New Housing Price Index (MoM) (DEC)

Low

0.1% 0.1%

13:30

USD Continuing Claims (JAN 27)

Low

3187K 3197K

13:30

USD Non-Farm Productivity (4Q P)

Low

-1.0% 2.9%

13:30

USD Unit Labor Costs (4Q P)

Low

3.0% -1.9%

15:00

GBP NIESR Gross

Domestic Product Estimate (JAN)

Medium

-0.3%

15:30

USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (FEB 1)

Low

-194

20:00

USD Consumer Credit

(DEC) Medium

$14.500B $16.045B

23:50

JPY Trade Balance - BOP Basis (Yen) (DEC)

Medium

-¥560.3B -¥847.5B

23:50

JPY Adjusted Current Account Total (Yen) (DEC)

Low

¥235.8B ¥225.9B

23:50

JPY Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (JAN)

Low

1.4%

23:50

JPY Bank Lending incl Trusts (YoY) (JAN)

Low

1.2%

23:50

JPY Current Account Balance (YoY) (DEC)

Low

-154.3% -276.4%

23:50

JPY Current Account Total (Yen) (DEC)

Low

-¥141.1B -¥222.4B

23:50

JPY Housing Loans (YoY) (4Q)

Low

3.0%

Fri

Feb 8

CNY Exports (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

17.1% 14.1%

CNY Imports (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

23.5% 6.0%

CNY Trade Balance (USD) (JAN)

Medium

$24.20B $31.62B

04:30

JPY Bankruptcies (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

-13.8%

05:00

JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current (JAN)

Medium

48 45.8

05:00

JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (JAN)

Medium

51

05:30

CNY Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JAN)

High

2.1% 2.5%

05:30

CNY Producer Price Index (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

-1.6% -1.9%

06:45

CHF Unemployment Rate (JAN)

Medium

3.4% 3.3%

06:45

CHF Unemployment Rate s.a. (JAN)

Medium

3.1% 3.0%

07:00

EUR German Trade

Balance (euros) (DEC) Medium

15.0B 17.0B

07:00

EUR German Current Account (euros) (DEC)

Low

17.0B 15.3B

07:00

EUR German Exports s.a. (MoM) (DEC)

Low

1.4% -3.4%

07:00

EUR German Imports s.a. (MoM) (DEC)

Low

1.6% -3.7%

07:30

EUR Bank of France Business Sentiment (JAN)

Medium

95

07:45

EUR French Central Government Balance

(euros) (DEC)

Low

-103.4B

08:15

CHF Retail Sales (Real) (YoY) (DEC)

Medium

2.9%

09:00

EUR Italian Industrial Production n.s.a. (YoY) (DEC)

Low

-7.6%

09:00

EUR Italian Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (DEC)

Low

0.2% -1.0%

09:00

EUR Italian Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (DEC)

Low

-7.6%

13:15

CAD Housing Starts

(JAN) Medium

195.0K 198.0K

13:30

CAD Net Change in Employment (JAN)

High

4.0K 39.8K

13:30

CAD Unemployment Rate (JAN)

High

7.2% 7.1%

13:30

CAD Full Time Employment Change (JAN)

Medium

41.2

13:30

CAD Part Time Employment Change (JAN)

Medium

-1.4

13:30

CAD Participation Rate (JAN)

Medium

66.8

13:30

USD Trade Balance (DEC)

Medium

-$46.0B -$48.7B

13:30

CAD International Merchandise Trade

(Canadian dollar) (DEC)

Low

-1.50B -1.96B

15:00

USD Wholesale Inventories (DEC)

Low

0.4% 0.6%

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