Daily-i-Forex-report-1 by EPIC RESEARCH 21 FEB 2013

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DAILY I FOREX REPORT21

ST

FEBRUARY 2013

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2/16

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British Pound Faces HeavyEvent Risk After MassiveDecline

Forex: Japan All IndustryActivity Index ImpressesBut Yen UnchangedForex News: USD/JPY Little

Changed on Larger TradeDeficitForex: GBP/JPY a High Risk PairBetween BoJ and UK Data

Volatility picked up this past session inthe Forex market, but it wasn't the kind

of move that secures a serious trend.Looking ahead to the coming session,there is certainly a high risk for heavieractivity levels - with the possibility of adramatic and market-wide trend alwaysa palpable possibility. Given theconcentration of stimulus expectationsand key event risk for the UK, GBPJPY is

at the top of the list for potential market-movers. However, we should also watchthe Kiwi dollar after surprise comments

from the RBNZ Governor and EURUSDas it makes its move back above 1.3400.We talk about these and other pairs in

TRADING TIPS

BUY EURUSD ABOVE

1.3434 tgs

1.3454/1.3474 sl 1.3404

SELL USDJPY BELOW

93.14 tgt 93.00/92.85

SL 93.34

SELL GBPUSD BELOW

1.5295 tgt

1.5275/1.5255 SL

1.5315

HEADLINES


3/16

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 1.3395

HIGH: 1.3434

LOW: 1.3387

CLOSE: 1.3397

EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD

TREND : BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS

MACD =>. 0000(BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 50(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY EURUSD CHART


4/16

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 93.71

HIGH: 93.77

LOW: 93.14

CLOSE: 93.58

USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND: BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD => 0.04( BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>52(BEARISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY USDJPY CHART


5/16

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 1.5427

HIGH: 1.5451

LOW: 1.5295

CLOSE: 1.5309

GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND: BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD => .-0002( BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 20(BEARISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART


6/16

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 0.8682

HIGH: 0.8765

LOW: 0.8682

CLOSE: 0.8749

EURGBP LOOKS UPWARDS

TREND: BULLISH


MACD =>.0006(BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>81(BULLISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY EURGBP CHART


7/16

HOURLY USDINDEX CHART

ECONOMIC CALENDER

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 80.4300

HIGH: 80.5280

LOW: 80.2710

CLOSE: 80.5190

USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH


MACD =>0.071(BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>53(BULLISH SIGNAL)


8/16

Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes

Sun

Feb 1721:30

NZD PerformanceServices Index (JAN)

Low 52.6 51.5

Mon

Feb 18

CNY Actual FDI (YoY)(JAN)

Medium -4.2% -4.5%

00:01GBP Rightmove HousePrices (YoY) (FEB)

Medium 1.1% 2.4%

00:01GBP Rightmove House

Prices (MoM) (FEB)

Low 2.8% 0.2%

00:30AUD New MotorVehicle Sales (YoY)(JAN)

Low 10.8% 17.9%

00:30AUD New MotorVehicle Sales (MoM)(JAN)

Low -2.4% 2.2%

06:00JPY Machine ToolOrders (YoY) (JAN F)

Medium -26.4% -26.1%

09:00EUR Bank of SpainPublishes Bad LoansData (Dec)

Medium 10.44% 11.38%

09:00EUR Euro-ZoneCurrent Account s.a.(euros) (DEC)

Low 13.9B 15.9B

09:00EUR Euro-ZoneCurrent Account n.s.a.(euros) (DEC)

Low 27.0B 20.8B

13:00

EUR EU President VanRompuy Speaks toParliament onProposed Budget

High

14:30EUR ECB's DraghiSpeaks at EUParliament

High

23:50JPY BOJ Minutes forMeeting on Jan. 21-22

High

Tue

Feb 1900:30

AUD RBA PolicyMeeting - FebruaryMinutes

High

05:00JPY Leading Index(DEC F)

Medium 93.4

05:00JPY Coincident Index(DEC F)

Low 92.7

05:30JPY Tokyo DepartmentStore Sales (YoY)

(JAN)

Low -1.1%

05:30JPY NationwideDepartment StoreSales (YoY) (JAN)

Low -1.3%

07:00EUR EU 25 New CarRegistrations (JAN)

Low -16.3%

10:00EUR German ZEWSurvey (EconomicSentiment) (FEB)

High 35 31.5

10:00EUR German ZEWSurvey (CurrentSituation) (FEB)

Medium 9 7.1


9/16

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone ZEWSurvey (EconomicSentiment) (FEB)

Medium 31.2

10:00EUR Euro-ZoneConstruction Outputw.d.a. (YoY) (DEC)

Low -4.7%

10:00EUR Euro-ZoneConstruction Outputs.a. (MoM) (DEC)

Low -0.4%

13:30CAD Wholesale Sales(MoM) (DEC)

Low -0.4% 0.7%

13:30

CAD InternationalSecurities Transactions(Canadian dollar)(DEC)

Low 6.75B 5.62B

15:00USD NAHB HousingMarket Index (FEB)

Low 48 47

21:45NZD Producer Prices-Outputs (QoQ) (4Q)

Low -0.9%

21:45NZD Producer Prices-Inputs (QoQ) (4Q)

Low -1.0%

23:00 AUD Conference BoardLeading Index (DEC)

Medium -0.2%

23:30AUD Westpac LeadingIndex (MoM) (DEC)

Low 0.6%

23:50JPY MerchandiseTrade Balance Total(Yen) (JAN)

Medium -1384.0B -641.5B

23:50JPY MerchandiseTrade Imports (YoY)(JAN)

Low 2.1 1.9

23:50JPY MerchandiseTrade Exports (YoY)

(JAN)

Low 5.6 -5.8

23:50JPY AdjustedMerchandise TradeBalance (Yen) (JAN)

Low -586.7B -800.7B

Wed

Feb 20

USD MortgageDelinquencies (4Q)

Low 7.4%

USD MBA MortgageForeclosures (4Q)

Low 4.1%

00:30AUD Wage Cost Index(QoQ) (4Q)

Low 0.8% 0.7%

00:30 AUD Wage Cost Index(YoY) (4Q)Low 3.4% 3.7%

01:30

JPY Bank Of JapanBoard MemberMorimoto Speaks inKochi

Low

04:30JPY All Industry ActivityIndex (MoM) (DEC)

Medium 1.6% -0.3%

07:00EUR GermanConsumer Price Index(YoY) (JAN F)

High 1.7% 1.7%


10/16

07:00

EUR GermanConsumer Price Index -EU Harmonised (YoY)(JAN F)

High 1.9% 1.9%

07:00EUR German ProducerPrices (YoY) (JAN)

Medium 1.2% 1.5%

07:00EUR GermanConsumer Price Index(MoM) (JAN F)

Medium -0.5% -0.5%

07:00

EUR German

Consumer Price Index -EU Harmonised (MoM)(JAN F)

Medium -0.7% -0.7%

07:00JPY ConvenienceStore Sales (YoY)(JAN)

Low -2.0%

07:00EUR German ProducerPrices (MoM) (JAN)

Low 0.3% -0.3%

09:30GBP Jobless ClaimsChange (JAN)

High -5.5K -12.1K

09:30

GBP Bank of EnglandReleases Monetary

Policy CommitteeMinutes

High

09:30GBP ILOUnemployment Rate(3M) (DEC)

Medium 7.7% 7.7%

09:30GBP EmploymentChange (3M/3M) (DEC)

Medium 117K 90K

09:30GBP Claimant CountRate (JAN)

Medium 4.8% 4.8%

09:30GBP Average WeeklyEarnings (3M/YoY)(DEC)

Medium 1.4% 1.5%

09:30GBP Weekly EarningsexBonus (3M/YoY)(DEC)

Low 1.3% 1.4%

10:00CHF ZEW Survey(Expectations) (FEB)

Medium -6.9

12:00USD MBA MortgageApplications (FEB 15)

Low -6.4%

13:30USD Producer PriceIndex (YoY) (JAN)

Medium 1.5% 1.3%

13:30USD Producer Price

Index (MoM) (JAN)

Medium 0.4% -0.3%

13:30USD Producer PriceIndex Ex Food &Energy (YoY) (JAN)

Medium 1.7% 2.0%

13:30USD Housing Starts(MoM) (JAN)

Medium -3.6% 12.1%

13:30USD Producer PriceIndex Ex Food &Energy (MoM) (JAN)

Low 0.2% 0.1%

13:30USD Housing Starts(JAN)

Low 920K 954K


11/16

13:30

USD Building Permits(MoM) (JAN)

Low 1.2% 1.0%

13:30USD Building Permits(JAN)

Low 920K 909K

14:00CAD Teranet/NationalBank HP Index (JAN)

Low 153.45

14:00CAD Teranet/NationalBank HPI (YoY) (JAN)

Low 3.1%

14:00 CAD Teranet/NationalBank HPI (MoM) (JAN)

Low -0.2% -0.4%

15:00EUR Euro-ZoneConsumer Confidence(FEB A)

Medium -23.2 -23.9

19:00USD Fed ReleasesMinutes from Jan 29-30FOMC Meeting

High

21:00NZD ANZ NZ Job Ads(MoM) (JAN)

Low 0.4%

23:50JPY Japan BuyingForeign Stocks (Yen)

(FEB 15)

Low -228.6B

23:50JPY Japan BuyingForeign Bonds (Yen)(FEB 15)

Low -645.0B

23:50JPY Foreign BuyingJapan Stocks (Yen)(FEB 15)

Low 212.9B

23:50JPY Foreign BuyingJapan Bonds (Yen)(FEB 15)

Low -261.6B

Thu

Feb 2100:30

AUD RBA ForeignExchange Transaction(Australian dollar)

(JAN)

Low 752M

01:35CNY MNI FebruaryFlash BusinessSentiment Indicator

Low

02:00CNY Conference BoardChina January LeadingEconomic Index

Low

05:00JPY SupermarketSales (YoY) (JAN)

Low -1.5%

07:00CHF Trade Balance(Swiss franc) (JAN)

Medium 1.70B 1.00B

07:00CHF Imports (MoM)(JAN)

Low 5.5%

07:00CHF Exports (MoM)(JAN)

Low 0.3% -1.5%

08:00EUR FrenchPurchasing ManagerIndex Services (FEB P)

Low 44.4 43.6

08:00

EUR FrenchPurchasing ManagerIndex Manufacturing(FEB P)

Low 43.8 42.9


12/16

08:00

CHF Real Estate IndexFamily Homes (4Q)

Low 413.1

08:00CHF Money Supply M3(YoY) (JAN)

Low 9.8%

08:30EUR GermanPurchasing ManagerIndex Services (FEB A)

Medium 55.5 55.7

08:30

EUR GermanPurchasing ManagerIndex Manufacturing

(FEB A)

Medium 50.5 49.8

09:00EUR Euro-ZonePurchasing ManagerIndex Services (FEB A)

Medium 49 48.6

09:00

EUR Euro-ZonePurchasing ManagerIndex Manufacturing(FEB A)

Medium 48.5 47.9

09:00

EUR Euro-ZonePurchasing ManagerIndex Composite (FEBA)

Medium 49 48.6

09:30GBP Public Sector NetBorrowing (Pounds)(JAN)

Medium -9.5B 13.2B

09:30GBP Public Finances(PSNCR) (Pounds)(JAN)

Medium -35.0B 1.3B

09:30GBP PSNB exInterventions (JAN)

Medium -8.7B 15.4B

11:00GBP CBI TrendsSelling Prices (FEB)

Low 15 21

11:00GBP CBI Trends TotalOrders (FEB)

Low -15 -20

13:30USD Consumer PriceIndex (YoY) (JAN)

High 1.6% 1.7%

13:30USD Consumer PriceIndex Ex Food &Energy (YoY) (JAN)

High 1.8% 1.9%

13:30USD Initial JoblessClaims (FEB 16)

Medium 355K 341K

13:30USD Consumer PriceIndex (MoM) (JAN)

Medium 0.1% 0.0%

13:30USD Consumer PriceIndex Ex Food &

Energy (MoM) (JAN)

Medium 0.2% 0.1%

13:30USD Continuing Claims(FEB 9)

Low 3150K 3114K

13:30USD Consumer PriceIndex n.s.a. (JAN)

Low 230.304 229.601

13:30USD Consumer PriceIndex Core Index s.a.(JAN)

Low 231.938 231.475

13:58USD Markit US PMIPreliminary (FEB)

Medium 55.5


13/16

15:00

USD Philadelphia Fed.(FEB)

Medium 1 -5.8

15:00USD Leading Indicators(JAN)

Medium 0.2% 0.5%

15:00USD Existing HomeSales (MoM) (JAN)

Medium -0.8% -1.0%

15:00USD Existing HomeSales (JAN)

Low 4.90M 4.94M

15:00 USD API MonthlyStatistical Report

Low

15:30USD EIA Natural GasStorage Change (FEB15)

Low -157

16:00USD DOE U.S.Distillate Inventory(FEB 15)

Low -3677K

16:00USD DOE U.S. CrudeOil Inventories (FEB15)

Low 560K

16:00USD DOE Cushing OKCrude Inventory (FEB15)

Low -1118K

16:00USD DOE U.S.Gasoline Inventories(FEB 15)

Low -803K

17:30

USD Fed's BullardSpeaks AboutMonetary Policy in NewYork

Low

18:00USD Fed's WilliamsSpeaks on MonetaryPolicy in New York

Low

Fri

Feb 22

01:30CNY China January

Property PricesMedium

02:00NZD Credit CardSpending s.a. (MoM)(JAN)

Medium 1.0%

02:00NZD Credit CardSpending (YoY) (JAN)

Medium 4.6%

02:15USD Fed's FisherSpeaks on Economy inDallas ()

Low

07:00EUR German GrossDomestic Productw.d.a. (YoY) (4Q F)

High 0.4% 0.4%

07:00EUR German GrossDomestic Product s.a.(QoQ) (4Q F)

High -0.6% -0.6%

07:00EUR German GrossDomestic Productn.s.a. (YoY) (4Q F)

High 0.1% 0.1%

07:00EUR German PrivateConsumption (4Q)

Low 0.1% 0.3%

07:00EUR German Imports(4Q)

Low -1.0% 1.0%


14/16

07:00

EUR GermanGovernment Spending(4Q)

Low 0.2% 0.4%

07:00EUR German Exports(4Q)

Low -2.0% 1.4%

07:00EUR German DomesticDemand (4Q)

Low -0.1% 0.0%

07:00EUR GermanConstructionInvestment (4Q)

Low -0.8% 1.5%

07:00EUR German CapitalInvestment (4Q)

Low -1.3% 0.2%

09:00EUR German IFO -Current Assessment(FEB)

Medium 108.5 108

09:00EUR German IFO -Business Climate(FEB)

Medium 104.9 104.2

09:00EUR German IFO -Expectations (FEB)

Medium 101.4 100.5

10:00

EUR EU Issues Winter

Economic Forecasts inBrussels

Medium

13:30CAD Consumer PriceIndex (YoY) (JAN)

High 0.7% 0.8%

13:30CAD Bank CanadaConsumer Price IndexCore (YoY) (JAN)

High 1.1% 1.1%

13:30CAD Retail Sales(MoM) (DEC)

Medium -0.4% 0.2%

13:30CAD Consumer PriceIndex (MoM) (JAN)

Medium 0.2% -0.6%

13:30CAD Bank CanadaConsumer Price IndexCore (MoM) (JAN)

Medium 0.2% -0.6%

13:30CAD Retail Sales LessAutos (MoM) (DEC)

Low 0.1% -0.3%

13:30CAD Core CPI s.a.(MoM) (JAN)

Low 0.1%

13:30CAD Consumer PriceIndex s.a. (MoM) (JAN)

Low -0.1%

13:30CAD Consumer PriceIndex (JAN)

Low 121.2

15:15USD Fed's Powell,Rosengren Speak inNew York

Low

23:30USD Fed's TarulloSpeaks on Regulationin New York

Low


15/16

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16/16

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Daily-i-Forex-report-1 by EPIC RESEARCH 21 FEB 2013

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Transcript of Daily-i-Forex-report-1 by EPIC RESEARCH 21 FEB 2013