AALIDateOpenHighLowCloseVolumeAdj Close12/30/132470025100246502510050750024840.842 Januari 20131 Januari 20131 Januari 201312/23/132430024800236502465025760024395.497 Januari 20137 Januari 20137 Januari 201312/16/1323300248002225024100168710023851.1714 Januari 201314 Januari 201314 Januari 201312/9/132475025750230502380096990023554.2621 Januari 201321 Januari 201321 Januari 201312/2/1322450247502225024700208930024444.9728 Januari 201328 Januari 201328 Januari 201311/25/1323000234002130022250202400022020.274 Februari 20134 Februari 20134 Februari 201311/18/1321950230002190022950162520022713.0411 Februari 201311 Februari 201311 Februari 201311/11/1320900224502040021900168940021673.8818 Februari 201318 Februari 201318 Februari 201311/4/1319600211501960020850129640020634.7225 Februari 201325 Februari 201325 Februari 201310/28/132075021100180501960097970019397.635 Maret 20135 Maret 20135 Maret 201310/21/132090021300204002065065010020436.7911 Maret 201311 Maret 201311 Maret 201310/14/132110021150201002075037540020535.7518 Maret 201318 Maret 201318 Maret 201310/7/1318700213001850021100157890020882.1425 Maret 201325 Maret 201325 Maret 20139/30/131920019600185001855039490018358.471 April 20131 April 20131 April 20139/23/132050020500183501945076740019114.238 April 20138 April 20138 April 20139/16/1319700217501915019150152020018819.4115 April 201315 April 201315 April 20139/9/1321000217502000020100156650019753.0122 April 201322 April 201322 April 20139/2/1319750210001900021000296850020637.4829 April 201329 April 201329 April 20138/26/1316300198001630019750346370019409.066 Mei 20136 Mei 20136 Mei 20138/19/1314600163501310016000162830015723.7913 Mei 201313 Mei 201313 Mei 20138/12/1315200153001450014600117520014347.9620 Mei 201320 Mei 201320 Mei 20138/5/1315200152001520015200014937.627 Mei 201327 Mei 201327 Mei 20137/29/131610016100151001520084620014937.63 Juni 20133 Juni 20133 Juni 20137/22/1317400176501550016000127000015723.7910 Juni 201310 Juni 201310 Juni 20137/15/131800018000168501750077040017197.917 Juni 201317 Juni 201317 Juni 20137/8/131800018250172001815062930017836.6824 Juni 201324 Juni 201324 Juni 20137/1/131960019900173501800068980017689.271 Juli 20131 Juli 20131 Juli 20136/24/131825019800180501970088050019359.928 Juli 20138 Juli 20138 Juli 20136/17/1319650203501815018700239020018377.1815 Juli 201315 Juli 201315 Juli 20136/10/1319150210001860020000287540019654.7422 Juli 201322 Juli 201322 Juli 20136/3/1318350193001780018550148080018229.7729 Juli 201329 Juli 201329 Juli 20135/27/1318300195001795019500262580019163.3712 Agustus 20135 Agustus 20135 Agustus 20135/20/1317450185501710018150174160017836.6819 Agustus 201312 Agustus 201312 Agustus 20135/13/1317400175001690017200104110016903.0826 Agustus 201319 Agustus 201319 Agustus 20135/6/1317900180501715017150109350016477.162 September 201326 Agustus 201326 Agustus 20134/29/131745017750172501765051480016957.549 September 20132 September 20132 September 20134/22/1318700187001730017400109080016717.3516 September 20139 September 20139 September 20134/15/131855018600181001860089680017870.2823 September 201316 September 201316 September 20134/8/131820018600180501860071960017870.2830 September 201323 September 201323 September 20134/1/131835018650182501845029200017726.167 Oktober 201330 September 201330 September 20133/25/1318500185501805018500121910017774.216 Oktober 20137 Oktober 20137 Oktober 20133/18/1318250185001785018050116780017341.8521 Oktober 201316 Oktober 201316 Oktober 20133/11/1318700188501785017950316460017245.7828 Oktober 201321 Oktober 201321 Oktober 20133/4/131850019200185001885097000018110.474 November 201328 Oktober 201328 Oktober 20132/25/1318450186501825018500127410017774.211 November 20134 November 20134 November 20132/18/1318900191501835018350137280017630.0818 November 201311 November 201311 November 20132/11/1318850191501880019100124640018350.6625 November 201318 November 201318 November 20132/4/1319150193001885018900158380018158.52 Desember 201325 November 201325 November 20131/28/1319250193001875019150120670018398.79 Desember 20132 Desember 20132 Desember 20131/21/131915019350191001935043070018590.8516 Desember 20139 Desember 20139 Desember 20131/14/131980019950189501925091070018494.7723 Desember 201316 Desember 201316 Desember 20131/7/13206502085019400195507040001878330 Desember 201323 Desember 201323 Desember 20131/1/1319100208501910020600124900019791.8130 Desember 201330 Desember 2013

ADESDateOpenHighLowCloseVolumeAdj Close12/30/132025207520002000164200200012/23/13202520502000202588500202512/16/132075212520002000207100200012/9/132150220020502075264200207512/2/132200227521002100299300210011/25/132325237521502175523500217511/18/132475262523252325431200232511/11/132525257523752400174600240011/4/132675270025002525178300252510/28/1329503075257526501407900265010/21/1324003125237529252372400292510/14/13237524252300237585500237510/7/13240025502350237538160023759/30/13240024252250237518720023759/23/13257526502375245017250024509/16/13265027502475260031490026009/9/13230028252250265064200026509/2/13260026002225225013430022508/26/13240025502150250043390025008/19/13305030502200240078300024008/12/13305032253050307521160030758/5/133050305030503050030507/29/13332533502975305030980030507/22/13345035753250332533590033257/15/13342536003325342564960034257/8/13345035003125337542460033757/1/133650385034003425135670034256/24/133225360031003500110930035006/17/133250390032003375228340033756/10/133525375029753225101420032256/3/13387540003675367587980036755/27/13412542754050405077070040505/20/134225442539504200266270042005/13/133875450037754250362790042505/6/13395041253900400060870040004/29/134225440039004000242220040004/22/13455046254250427565650042754/15/134450480043254625233220046254/8/133800500037754450513690044504/1/134725480040504075195240040753/25/133725497537004575266490045753/18/133150412529753700376830037003/11/132750305026253025306910030253/4/132750292526752825157320028252/25/132525285024752750462730027502/18/132500257524002450111580024502/11/132225262521752450473070024502/4/132175232521002175163360021751/28/132475257522002225240090022251/21/132150257519302525564560025251/14/13191019701860193072170019301/7/13202520751820187094080018701/1/13190021001900207511842002075

TLKMDateOpenHighLowCloseVolumeAdj Close12/30/132150215021252150264310002085.2312/23/132125215020252125427918002060.9812/16/1320752150202521001166419002036.7312/9/1320252125198020751747406002012.4912/2/1322002200199020001151273001939.7511/25/1321502175202521751082002002109.4711/18/132175227521502150965088002085.2311/11/1322502275210021751031372002109.4711/4/132275232522502275844645002206.4610/28/1322252350220023001113921002230.7110/21/1323502375215021751180862002109.4710/14/132325235022002350468763002279.210/7/132250235022002325916112002254.959/30/132125225020752250822516002182.219/23/1322502275205021751208752002109.479/16/1322002450217523251114824002254.959/9/1320252275202522001556822002133.729/2/1322002225195019901132106001930.058/26/131080010850198022001131280002133.728/19/1310850112509900107501583645002085.238/12/13119001210011350113501007285002201.618/5/131200012000120001200002327.697/29/1311600122001130012000712695002327.697/22/1312000120001150011650904435002259.87/15/13118501190011200116501179605002259.87/8/13108001220010800118501618060002298.67/1/1310900112501050011000987735002133.726/24/1310000113009500112501937745002182.216/17/131040011400985099501562320001930.056/10/1310500111509700105501989925002046.436/3/13114001170010800110001346230002133.725/27/13122001250011050110501847160002143.425/20/13123001290012050123001166140002029.275/13/1311850121001160011950999140001971.535/6/1311600119001140011850632185001955.034/29/1311400118001125011300852095001864.294/22/1311700121001120011250692145001856.044/15/13111501250010950117001299460001930.284/8/13105001125010400111501093410001839.544/1/1310750111001065010700459570001765.33/25/1310700110001060011000549820001814.793/18/1310500111001025010550918905001740.553/11/1310850111501030010300701095001699.313/4/1310500111501035010750933545001773.552/25/139900109509750108501343485001790.052/18/1399501005097509850825895001625.072/11/13965010000955099501366470001641.562/4/139700980096009650695775001592.071/28/1395509800950096501181920001592.071/21/139600980094009800536735001616.821/14/1391509800905098001057360001616.821/7/1392009300880090501194220001493.081/1/138950915088509100707275001501.33

IHSGDateOpenHighLowCloseVolumeAdj Close1/2/134322.584418.484316.424410.0225354020004410.022 Januari 20131/7/134407.734427.654298.614305.9118366572004305.917 Januari 20131/14/134322.144465.484313.964465.4820119456004465.4814 Januari 20131/21/134463.454472.114390.124437.615142670004437.621 Januari 20131/28/134437.414519.464384.934481.6331155034004481.6328 Januari 20132/4/134497.984528.264458.694491.2710243382004491.274 Februari 20132/11/134504.7246164496.024609.7915782704004609.7911 Februari 20132/18/134611.174656.134602.474651.1229906940004651.1218 Februari 20132/25/134661.634817.914646.594811.6135396972004811.6125 Februari 20133/5/1347654904.484751.484874.504874.55 Maret 20133/11/134875.984886.524757.354819.3213135262004819.3211 Maret 20133/18/134812.164855.24721.324723.1640575438004723.1618 Maret 20133/25/134754.764940.994752.144940.9940823362004940.9925 Maret 20134/1/134927.124985.854907.634926.0751017238004926.071 April 20134/8/134924.374949.844864.864937.2126525639004937.218 April 20134/15/134921.945023.714891.054998.4629824245004998.4615 April 20134/22/135004.125026.924962.444978.517178652004978.5122 April 20134/29/134986.35062.674907.64925.4826992921004925.4829 April 20135/6/134933.515115.644933.515105.9411933496005105.946 Mei 20135/13/135101.95162.385030.445145.6816054081005145.6813 Mei 20135/20/135164.945251.35089.935155.0922661990005155.0920 Mei 20135/27/135145.185225.085068.635068.6331323552005068.6327 Mei 20136/3/135053.545055.834865.324865.3225520410004865.323 Juni 20136/10/134894.424915.934510.984760.7431469136004760.7410 Juni 20136/17/134755.574880.44474.964515.3724708131004515.3717 Juni 20136/24/134524.244818.94373.384818.913867283004818.924 Juni 20137/1/134757.184815.734577.124602.8110536086004602.811 Juli 20137/8/134578.724679.534403.84633.1124974216004633.118 Juli 20137/15/134639.814740.064582.134724.4127311312004724.4115 Juli 20137/22/134731.284779.344647.54658.8716761626004658.8722 Juli 20137/29/134649.14718.14563.144718.122040699004718.129 Juli 20138/12/134629.384699.734568.484568.6530243432004568.6512 Agustus 20138/19/134534.314536.144062.34169.8348834550004169.8319 Agustus 20138/26/134176.754196.193837.744195.0943698607004195.0926 Agustus 20139/2/134196.724206.954012.684072.3538657941004072.352 September 20139/9/134105.944404.754102.424375.5448978080004375.549 September 20139/16/134403.44791.774403.44583.8356507324004583.8316 September 20139/23/134526.84574.584353.224423.7234788978004423.7223 September 20139/30/134385.514425.924313.294389.3529425825004389.3530 September 201310/7/134392.554543.734357.464519.9136044751004519.917 Oktober 201310/16/134527.814550.544484.384546.5736296624004546.5716 Oktober 201310/21/134557.614609.114499.694580.8538471759004580.8521 Oktober 201310/28/1345944611.264432.594432.5933451920004432.5928 Oktober 201311/4/134426.534494.354403.44476.7229472008004476.724 November 201311/11/134473.884485.064284.034335.4534919371004335.4511 November 201311/18/134361.224408.44300.134317.9628270454004317.9618 November 201311/25/134329.384346.664202.924256.4432470671004256.4425 November 201312/2/134269.084331.594161.024180.7932131896004180.792 Desember 201312/9/134210.24282.14163.864174.8331027494004174.839 Desember 201312/16/134157.764257.174109.314195.5631070475004195.5616 Desember 201312/23/134201.714233.854154.124212.9820238989004212.9823 Desember 201312/30/134240.394274.184232.584274.1825138384004274.1830 Desember 2013

AALI_olahdataKode Saham : AALINama Perusahaan : PT. Astra Agro Lestari Tbk

TanggalHarga PenutupanReturn Saham Mingguan (Ri)E (Ri)Ri-E(Ri){Ri - E (R,)}2IHSG (JKSE)Return Pasar (Rm)E (Rm)Rm-E(Rm){Rm - E (Rm)}2

30 December 201325,100.000.01825557810.00542446570.01283111240.00016463744597573804,274.180.0145265350.0004428660.0140836690.0001983497266394923 December 201324,650.000.02282157680.00542446570.01739711110.00030265947433970704,212.980.0041520080.0004428660.0037091420.0000137577376662416 December 201324,100.000.01260504200.00542446570.00718057630.00005156067664781624,195.560.0049654720.0004428660.0045226060.0000204539630223509 December 201323,800.00-0.03643724700.0054244657-0.04186171260.00175240298475784004,174.83-0.0014255680.000442866-0.0018684340.0000034910447345802 December 201324,700.000.11011235960.00542446570.10468789390.01095955512479050004,180.79-0.0177730690.000442866-0.0182159340.0003318202676600725 November 201322,250.00-0.03050108930.0054244657-0.03592555500.00129064550179397004,256.44-0.0142474690.000442866-0.0146903350.0002158059301346018 November 201322,950.000.04794520550.00542446570.04252073980.00180801331379802004,317.96-0.0040341830.000442866-0.0044770490.0000200439692957911 November 201321,900.000.05035971220.00542446570.04493524660.00201917638327405004,335.45-0.0315565860.000442866-0.0319994520.0010239649245875704 November 201320,850.000.06377551020.00542446570.05835104450.00340484439801925004,476.720.0099558050.0004428660.0095129390.0000904960036580328 October 201319,600.00-0.05084745760.0054244657-0.05627192330.00316652935174883004,432.59-0.0323651720.000442866-0.0328080380.0010763673752926921 October 201320,650.00-0.00481927710.0054244657-0.01024374280.00010493426614567004,580.850.0075397500.0004428660.0070968840.0000503657607405014 October 201320,750.00-0.01658767770.0054244657-0.02201214340.00048453445692237504,546.570.0058983480.0004428660.0054554820.0000297622801799907 October 201321,100.000.13746630730.00542446570.13204184160.01743504793468330004,519.910.0297447230.0004428660.0293018570.0008585988325989430 September 201318,550.00-0.04627249360.0054244657-0.05169695920.00267257559517620004,389.35-0.0077694790.000442866-0.0082123450.0000674426095941523 September 201319,450.000.01566579630.00542446570.01024133070.00010488485395252704,423.72-0.0349293060.000442866-0.0353721720.0012511905316611316 September 201319,150.00-0.04726368160.0054244657-0.05268814730.00277604086208619004,583.830.0476032670.0004428660.0471604010.0022241034586838209 September 201320,100.00-0.04285714290.0054244657-0.04828160850.00233111372213304004,375.540.0744508700.0004428660.0740080040.0054771846591438502 September 201321,000.000.06329113920.00542446570.05786667360.00334855190991806004,072.35-0.0292580140.000442866-0.0297008790.0008821422374251526 August 201319,750.000.23437500000.00542446570.22895053430.05241834716921120004,195.090.0060578010.0004428660.0056149350.0000315274955876619 August 201316,000.000.09589041100.00542446570.09046594530.00818408725670627004,169.83-0.0872949340.000442866-0.0877378000.0076979215176201712 August 201314,600.00-0.03947368420.0054244657-0.04489814990.00201584386284742004,568.650.000442866-0.0004428660.0000001961301788505 August 201315,200.000.00000000000.0054244657-0.00542446570.00002942482782351970.000442866-0.0004428660.0000001961301788529 July 201315,200.00-0.05000000000.0054244657-0.05542446570.00307187139499415004,718.100.0127133830.0004428660.0122705170.0001505655977098722 July 201316,000.00-0.08571428570.0054244657-0.09113875140.00830627200419765004,658.87-0.0138726320.000442866-0.0143154980.0002049334711033215 July 201317,500.00-0.03581267220.0054244657-0.04123713780.00170050153789618004,724.410.0197059860.0004428660.0192631200.0003710677905183008 July 201318,150.000.00833333330.00542446570.00290886770.00000846151107285974,633.110.0065829350.0004428660.0061400690.0000377004514623001 July 201318,000.00-0.08629441620.0054244657-0.09171888190.00841235329980395004,602.81-0.0448421840.000442866-0.0452850500.0020507357327557824 June 201319,700.000.05347593580.00542446570.04805147020.00230894378426547004,818.900.0672215120.0004428660.0667786460.0044593876191933217 June 201318,700.00-0.06500000000.0054244657-0.07042446570.00495960536514533004,515.37-0.0515403070.000442866-0.0519831730.0027022502365842210 June 201320,000.000.07816711590.00542446570.07274265020.00529149316266724004,760.74-0.0214949890.000442866-0.0219378550.0004812694773678403 June 201318,550.00-0.04871794870.0054244657-0.05414241440.00293140103594112004,865.32-0.0401114310.000442866-0.0405542960.0016446509544658127 May 201319,500.000.07438016530.00542446570.06895569960.00475488850974578005,068.63-0.0167717730.000442866-0.0172146390.0002963437962708820 May 201318,150.000.05523255810.00542446570.04980809250.00248084607528377005,155.090.0018287180.0004428660.0013858530.0000019205873982613 May 201317,200.000.00291545190.0054244657-0.00250901380.00000629515013148245,145.680.0077830920.0004428660.0073402260.0000538789174351606 May 201317,150.00-0.02832861190.0054244657-0.03375307760.00113927024542776005,105.940.0366380540.0004428660.0361951880.0013100916111954229 April 201317,650.000.01436781610.00542446570.00894335040.00007998351673934574,925.48-0.0106517810.000442866-0.0110946470.0001230911970763022 April 201317,400.00-0.06451612900.0054244657-0.06994059470.00489168678754420004,978.51-0.0039912290.000442866-0.0044340950.0000196611999647915 April 201318,600.000.00000000000.0054244657-0.00542446570.00002942482782351974,998.460.0124057920.0004428660.0119629260.0001431116000385608 April 201318,600.000.00813008130.00542446570.00270561560.00000732035593246674,937.210.0022614380.0004428660.0018185720.0000033072031973801 April 201318,450.00-0.00270270270.0054244657-0.00812716840.00006605086578599344,926.07-0.0030196380.000442866-0.0034625040.0000119889314220025 March 201318,500.000.02493074790.00542446570.01950628230.00038049504724519904,940.990.0461195470.0004428660.0456766810.0020863592066197118 March 201318,050.000.00557103060.00542446570.00014656500.00000002148129012694,723.16-0.0199530220.000442866-0.0203958880.0004159922590623811 March 201317,950.00-0.04774535810.0054244657-0.05316982380.00282703015887065004,819.32-0.0113201350.000442866-0.0117630010.0001383681988437804 March 201318,850.000.01891891890.00542446570.01349445320.00018210026844120804,874.500.0130704690.0004428660.0126276030.0001594563642452325 February 201318,500.000.00817438690.00542446570.00274992120.00000756206687721234,811.610.0345056670.0004428660.0340628020.0011602744516214218 February 201318,350.00-0.03926701570.0054244657-0.04469148140.00199732850780593004,651.120.0089657010.0004428660.0085228350.0000726387230424111 February 201319,100.000.01058201060.00542446570.00515754490.00002660026950180594,609.790.0263889720.0004428660.0259461070.0006732004432442004 February 201318,900.00-0.01305483030.0054244657-0.01847929600.00034148437913708104,491.270.0021510030.0004428660.0017081370.0000029177327788028 January 201319,150.00-0.01033591730.0054244657-0.01576038300.00024838967181394904,481.630.0099220300.0004428660.0094791640.0000898545512014021 January 201319,350.000.00519480520.0054244657-0.00022966050.00000005274393465044,437.60-0.0062434500.000442866-0.0066863160.0000447068166018714 January 201319,250.00-0.01534526850.0054244657-0.02076973420.00043138185931628804,465.480.0370583690.0004428660.0366155030.0013406950412147607 January 201319,550.00-0.05097087380.0054244657-0.05639533950.00318043431259591004,305.91-0.0236076030.000442866-0.0240504690.0005784250377944601 January 201320,600.000.0054244657-0.00542446570.00002942482782351974,410.020.000442866-0.0004428660.00000019613017885TOTAL0.2820722149TOTAL-0.0054244656717061000000000000000.1769243864TOTAL0.0221432935TOTAL-0.00132859760.0423942239E (Ri)0.0054244657Varians0.0034023920461116E (Rm)0.000442866Varians0.0008152735368826Standar Deviasi0.058330027Standar Deviasi0.0285529952A)Menghitung Risiko dan Return SahamReturn Saham=Pt - Pt-1 +D1Pt-1

Return Pasar =IHSGt -IHSGt-1IHSGt-1

Varians =12 = (Ri - E(R1)^2n = (1^2)^1/2

Return Saham 0.0054244657Variance0.0034023920461116Deviasi Std (Resiko)0.058330027

B)Menghitung Beta Saham

ANOVAdfSSMSFSignificance FRegression10.00000246610.00000246610.00071088260.9788330744Residual510.17692136510.0034690464Total520.1769238312

CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%Intercept0.00531893070.00809122910.65736993190.5138990785-0.01092488920.0215627507-0.01092488920.0215627507Return Pasar (Rm)0.00762694860.28605653830.02666238170.9788330744-0.5666555030.5819094003-0.5666555030.5819094003R_AALI = 0,005318931 + 0,007626949 Return Pasar (Rm)Beta saham AALI0.0076269486

Beta = 0.007626949Artinya : saham bersifat defensif (conservative), artinya saham tersebut kurang peka terhadap perubahan pasar dan memiliki risiko dibawah rata-rata pasar

C)Expected Return menggunakan Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)E(R,) = R(f) + (E(Rm) - R(f)) x Realized Return0.0054244657Beta0.007626949E (Rm)0.000442866Rr (f)0.09E (R_AALI) = 0.09 + (0.000442866 - 0.09) x 0.0076269490.08931695233889Saham PT. Astra Agro Lestari Tbk dikatakan over valued karena return ekspektasi > return realisasi sehingga investor akan menjual saham tersebut

ADES_olahdataKode Saham : ADESNama Perusahaan : PT. Akasha Wira International Tbk

TanggalHarga PenutupanReturn Saham Mingguan (Ri)E (Ri)Ri-E(Ri){Ri - E (R,)}2IHSG (JKSE)Return Pasar (Rm)E (Rm)Rm-E(Rm){Rm - E (Rm)}2

30 December 20132,000.00-0.01234567900.0039047676-0.01625044660.00026407701517115504,274.180.0145265350.0004428660.0140836690.0001983497266394923 December 20132,025.000.01250000000.00390476760.00859523240.00007387801997274314,212.980.0041520080.0004428660.0037091420.0000137577376662416 December 20132,000.00-0.03614457830.0039047676-0.04004934590.00160395010825304004,195.560.0049654720.0004428660.0045226060.0000204539630223509 December 20132,075.00-0.01190476190.0039047676-0.01580952950.00024994122323048304,174.83-0.0014255680.000442866-0.0018684340.0000034910447345802 December 20132,100.00-0.03448275860.0039047676-0.03838752620.00147360216951057004,180.79-0.0177730690.000442866-0.0182159340.0003318202676600725 November 20132,175.00-0.06451612900.0039047676-0.06842089660.00468141909625880004,256.44-0.0142474690.000442866-0.0146903350.0002158059301346018 November 20132,325.00-0.03125000000.0039047676-0.03515476760.00123585768516243004,317.96-0.0040341830.000442866-0.0044770490.0000200439692957911 November 20132,400.00-0.04950495050.0039047676-0.05340971810.00285259798722423004,335.45-0.0315565860.000442866-0.0319994520.0010239649245875704 November 20132,525.00-0.04716981130.0039047676-0.05107457890.00260861261215385004,476.720.0099558050.0004428660.0095129390.0000904960036580328 October 20132,650.00-0.09401709400.0039047676-0.09792186160.00958869098298188004,432.59-0.0323651720.000442866-0.0328080380.0010763673752926921 October 20132,925.000.23157894740.00390476760.22767417980.05183553213223620004,580.850.0075397500.0004428660.0070968840.0000503657607405014 October 20132,375.000.00000000000.0039047676-0.00390476760.00001524721002693984,546.570.0058983480.0004428660.0054554820.0000297622801799907 October 20132,375.000.00000000000.0039047676-0.00390476760.00001524721002693984,519.910.0297447230.0004428660.0293018570.0008585988325989430 September 20132,375.00-0.03061224490.0039047676-0.03451701250.00119142415193393004,389.35-0.0077694790.000442866-0.0082123450.0000674426095941523 September 20132,450.00-0.05769230770.0039047676-0.06159707530.00379419968483329004,423.72-0.0349293060.000442866-0.0353721720.0012511905316611316 September 20132,600.00-0.01886792450.0039047676-0.02277269210.00051859550686915904,583.830.0476032670.0004428660.0471604010.0022241034586838209 September 20132,650.000.17777777780.00390476760.17387301020.03023182366752770004,375.540.0744508700.0004428660.0740080040.0054771846591438502 September 20132,250.00-0.10000000000.0039047676-0.10390476760.01079620073046050004,072.35-0.0292580140.000442866-0.0297008790.0008821422374251526 August 20132,500.000.04166666670.00390476760.03776189910.00142596102095740004,195.090.0060578010.0004428660.0056149350.0000315274955876619 August 20132,400.00-0.21951219510.0039047676-0.22341696270.04991513923287040004,169.83-0.0872949340.000442866-0.0877378000.0076979215176201712 August 20133,075.000.00819672130.00390476760.00429195370.00001842086664283884,568.650.000442866-0.0004428660.0000001961301788505 August 20133,050.000.00000000000.0039047676-0.00390476760.00001524721002693980.000442866-0.0004428660.0000001961301788529 July 20133,050.00-0.08270676690.0039047676-0.08661153450.00750155791181580004,718.100.0127133830.0004428660.0122705170.0001505655977098722 July 20133,325.00-0.02919708030.0039047676-0.03310184790.00109573233400669004,658.87-0.0138726320.000442866-0.0143154980.0002049334711033215 July 20133,425.000.01481481480.00390476760.01091004720.00011902913018218504,724.410.0197059860.0004428660.0192631200.0003710677905183008 July 20133,375.00-0.01459854010.0039047676-0.01850330770.00034237239762286904,633.110.0065829350.0004428660.0061400690.0000377004514623001 July 20133,425.00-0.02142857140.0039047676-0.02533333900.00064177806644637904,602.81-0.0448421840.000442866-0.0452850500.0020507357327557824 June 20133,500.000.03703703700.00390476760.03313226940.00109774727790477004,818.900.0672215120.0004428660.0667786460.0044593876191933217 June 20133,375.000.04651162790.00390476760.04260686030.00181534454503350004,515.37-0.0515403070.000442866-0.0519831730.0027022502365842210 June 20133,225.00-0.12244897960.0039047676-0.12635374720.01596526942996640004,760.74-0.0214949890.000442866-0.0219378550.0004812694773678403 June 20133,675.00-0.09259259260.0039047676-0.09649736020.00931174052455734004,865.32-0.0401114310.000442866-0.0405542960.0016446509544658127 May 20134,050.00-0.03571428570.0039047676-0.03961905330.00156966938569199005,068.63-0.0167717730.000442866-0.0172146390.0002963437962708820 May 20134,200.00-0.01176470590.0039047676-0.01566947350.00024553239928210105,155.090.0018287180.0004428660.0013858530.0000019205873982613 May 20134,250.000.06250000000.00390476760.05859523240.00343340125975596005,145.680.0077830920.0004428660.0073402260.0000538789174351606 May 20134,000.000.00000000000.0039047676-0.00390476760.00001524721002693985,105.940.0366380540.0004428660.0361951880.0013100916111954229 April 20134,000.00-0.06432748540.0039047676-0.06823225300.00465564034703852004,925.48-0.0106517810.000442866-0.0110946470.0001230911970763022 April 20134,275.00-0.07567567570.0039047676-0.07958044330.00633304695229808004,978.51-0.0039912290.000442866-0.0044340950.0000196611999647915 April 20134,625.000.03932584270.00390476760.03542107510.00125465256084747004,998.460.0124057920.0004428660.0119629260.0001431116000385608 April 20134,450.000.09202453990.00390476760.08811977230.00776509426582125004,937.210.0022614380.0004428660.0018185720.0000033072031973801 April 20134,075.00-0.10928961750.0039047676-0.11319438510.01281296881556510004,926.07-0.0030196380.000442866-0.0034625040.0000119889314220025 March 20134,575.000.23648648650.00390476760.23258171890.05409425595918420004,940.990.0461195470.0004428660.0456766810.0020863592066197118 March 20133,700.000.22314049590.00390476760.21923572830.04806430454814830004,723.16-0.0199530220.000442866-0.0203958880.0004159922590623811 March 20133,025.000.07079646020.00390476760.06689169260.00447449853552467004,819.32-0.0113201350.000442866-0.0117630010.0001383681988437804 March 20132,825.000.02727272730.00390476760.02336795970.00054606153916489104,874.500.0130704690.0004428660.0126276030.0001594563642452325 February 20132,750.000.12244897960.00390476760.11854421200.01405273019625150004,811.610.0345056670.0004428660.0340628020.0011602744516214218 February 20132,450.000.00000000000.0039047676-0.00390476760.00001524721002693984,651.120.0089657010.0004428660.0085228350.0000726387230424111 February 20132,450.000.12643678160.00390476760.12253201400.01501409445661840004,609.790.0263889720.0004428660.0259461070.0006732004432442004 February 20132,175.00-0.02247191010.0039047676-0.02637667770.00069572912725604704,491.270.0021510030.0004428660.0017081370.0000029177327788028 January 20132,225.00-0.11881188120.0039047676-0.12271664880.01505937589031860004,481.630.0099220300.0004428660.0094791640.0000898545512014021 January 20132,525.000.30829015540.00390476760.30438538780.09265046432943980004,437.60-0.0062434500.000442866-0.0066863160.0000447068166018714 January 20131,930.000.03208556150.00390476760.02818079390.00079415714456139404,465.480.0370583690.0004428660.0366155030.0013406950412147607 January 20131,870.00-0.09879518070.0039047676-0.10269994830.01054727938596990004,305.91-0.0236076030.000442866-0.0240504690.0005784250377944601 January 20132,075.000.0039047676-0.00390476760.00001524721002693984,410.020.000442866-0.0004428660.00000019613017885TOTAL0.2030479153TOTAL-0.00390476760.5064049359TOTAL0.0221432935TOTAL-0.00132859760.0423942239E (Ri)0.0039047676Varians0.0097385564590517E (Rm)0.000442866Varians0.0008152735368826Standar Deviasi0.0986841247Standar Deviasi0.02855299520.0986841247A)Menghitung Risiko dan Return SahamReturn Saham=Pt - Pt-1 +D1Pt-1

Return Pasar =IHSGt -IHSGt-1IHSGt-1

Varians =12 = (Ri - E(R1)^2n = (1^2)^1/2

Return Saham 0.0039047676Variance0.0097385564590517Deviasi Std (Resiko)0.098684125

B)Menghitung Beta Saham

ANOVAdfSSMSFSignificance FRegression10.10927162650.109271626514.03271107390.0004583707Residual510.39713302170.007786922Total520.5064046482

CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%Intercept0.00316033320.01212250460.26069968780.7953738977-0.02117660990.0274972762-0.02117660990.0274972762Return Pasar (Rm)1.60546384490.42857786593.74602603750.00045837070.7450578952.46586979490.7450578952.4658697949R_ADES = 0,003160333 + 1,605463845 Return Pasar (Rm)Beta saham ADES1.6054638449Artinya : saham agresif, artinya tingkat kepekaan saham tersebut terhadap perubahan pasar sangat tinggi atau dapat juga dikatakan memiliki risiko yang lebih besar dari tingkat risiko rata-rata pasar.C)Expected Return menggunakan Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)E(R,) = R(f) + (E(Rm) - R(f)) x Realized Return0.0039047676Beta1.605463845E (Rm)0.000442866Rr (f)0.09E (R_ADES) = 0.09 + (0.000442866 - 0.09) x 1.605463845-0.05378074090204Saham PT. Akasha Wira International Tbk dikatakan under valued karena return ekspektasi < return realisasi sehingga investor akan membeli saham tersebut

Sheet2SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression StatisticsMultiple R0.005072181R Square0.000025727Adjusted R Square-0.0192050422Standard Error0.0585761277Observations53ANOVAdfSSMSFSignificance FRegression10.00000459030.00000459030.00133783950.9709654846Residual520.17842046230.0034311627Total530.1784250526

CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%Intercept0ERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AERROR:#N/AReturn Pasar (Rm)0.01040452140.28445927750.0365764880.9709627455-0.56040476650.5812138092-0.56040476650.5812138092RESIDUAL OUTPUTPROBABILITY OUTPUT

ObservationPredicted Return Saham Mingguan (Ri)ResidualsStandard ResidualsPercentileReturn Saham Mingguan (Ri)10.00015114160.01810443650.31203306390.9433962264-0.086294416220.00004319970.02277837710.39258923172.8301886792-0.085714285730.00005166340.01255337870.21635963184.7169811321-0.0654-0.0000148324-0.0364224146-0.62774655576.6037735849-0.0645161295-0.00018492030.11029727981.90099251378.4905660377-0.05097087386-0.0001482381-0.0303528512-0.52313659110.3773584906-0.05084745767-0.00004197370.04798717920.82706725512.2641509434-0.058-0.00032833120.05068804340.873617111914.1509433962-0.048717948790.00010358540.06367192481.097396532516.0377358491-0.047745358110-0.0003367441-0.0505107135-0.870560800617.9245283019-0.0472636816110.0000784475-0.0048977246-0.084413122519.8113207547-0.0462724936120.0000613695-0.0166490472-0.286949180921.6981132075-0.0428571429130.00030947960.13715682772.363921422423.5849056604-0.039473684214-0.0000808377-0.0461916559-0.796121102325.4716981132-0.039267015715-0.00036342270.01602921910.276266336527.358490566-0.036437247160.0004952892-0.0477589708-0.823134043829.2452830189-0.0358126722170.0007746257-0.0436317685-0.752001005431.1320754717-0.030501089318-0.00030441560.06359555491.096080283233.0188679245-0.0283286119190.00006302850.23431197154.038406970434.9056603774-0.016587677720-0.0009082620.0967986731.668341711936.7924528302-0.0153452685210-0.0394736842-0.680335709938.679245283-0.01305483032200040.5660377358-0.0103359173230.0001322767-0.0501322767-0.86403837742.4528301887-0.004819277124-0.0001443381-0.0855699476-1.47481270744.3396226415-0.0027027027250.0002050314-0.0360177035-0.620771290846.22641509430260.00006849230.0082648410.142445951348.1132075472027-0.0004665615-0.0858278548-1.4792577811500280.00069940770.05277652820.909612504651.88679245280.002915451929-0.0005362522-0.0644637478-1.111043736853.77358490570.005194805230-0.00022364510.0783907611.351078195255.66037735850.005571030631-0.0004173402-0.0483006085-0.83246926257.54716981130.008130081332-0.00017450230.07455466761.28496246859.43396226420.0081743869330.00001902690.05521353120.951614669361.3207547170.0083333333340.00008097930.00283447250.0488526263.20754716980.0105820106350.0003812014-0.0287098133-0.494818550965.09433962260.01260504236-0.00011082670.01447864280.249541888766.98113207550.014367816137-0.0000415268-0.0644746022-1.111230814668.86792452830.0156657963380.0001290763-0.0001290763-0.002224652670.75471698110.0182555781390.00002352920.00810655210.139717814772.6415094340.018918918940-0.0000314179-0.0026712848-0.046040051574.52830188680.0228215768410.00047985180.02445089610.421415383376.41509433960.024930747942-0.00020760160.00577863230.099595717578.30188679250.047945205543-0.0001177806-0.0476275775-0.820869457780.18867924530.0503597122440.0001359920.01878292690.323726963782.07547169810.0534759358450.0003590150.0078153720.134699274883.96226415090.0552325581460.0000932838-0.0393602995-0.678381505785.84905660380.0632911392470.00027456460.0103074460.177650596987.73584905660.0637755102480.0000223802-0.0130772104-0.225387962489.62264150940.0743801653490.000103234-0.0104391513-0.179920560891.50943396230.078167115950-0.00006496010.00525976530.090652956193.39622641510.095890411510.0003855746-0.0157308431-0.271123776395.28301886790.110112359652-0.0002456258-0.050725248-0.874258339197.16981132080.13746630735300099.05660377360.234375

Sheet3SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression StatisticsMultiple R0.0037334542R Square0.0000139387Adjusted R Square-0.0195936311Standard Error0.058898611Observations53ANOVAdfSSMSFSignificance FRegression10.00000246610.00000246610.00071088260.9788330744Residual510.17692136510.0034690464Total520.1769238312

CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%Intercept0.00531893070.00809122910.65736993190.5138990785-0.01092488920.0215627507-0.01092488920.0215627507Return Pasar (Rm)0.00762694860.28605653830.02666238170.9788330744-0.5666555030.5819094003-0.5666555030.5819094003RESIDUAL OUTPUT

ObservationPredicted Return Saham Mingguan (Ri)Residuals10.00542972390.012825854220.00535059790.017470978930.00535680210.007248239940.005308058-0.04174530550.00518337650.104928983160.005210266-0.035711355470.00528816220.042657043280.00507825030.04528146290.00539486310.0583806471100.0050720832-0.0559195409110.005376436-0.0101957131120.0053639171-0.0219515949130.00554579220.1319205151140.0052596733-0.0515321669150.00505252670.0106132696160.0056819984-0.05294568170.0058867637-0.0487439066180.00509578140.0581953579190.00536513330.2290098667200.00465313680.0912372742210.0053189307-0.0447926149220.0053189307-0.0053189307230.0054158951-0.0554158951240.0052131249-0.0909274106250.0054692273-0.0412818995260.00536913840.0029641949270.0049769217-0.0912713379280.00583162580.0476443101290.0049258355-0.0699258355300.00515498960.0730121263310.0050130029-0.0537309516320.00519101330.069189152330.00533287830.0498996799340.005378292-0.0024628401350.0055983673-0.0339269792360.00523769010.0091301259370.0052884898-0.0698046189380.0054135491-0.0054135491390.00533617860.0027939027400.0052959001-0.0079986028410.00567068220.0192600658420.00516675010.0004042806430.0052325926-0.0529779507440.00541861850.0135003004450.00558210370.0025922832460.0053873117-0.0446543274470.00552019810.0050618125480.0053353363-0.0183901666490.0053946056-0.0157305229500.0052713123-0.0000765071510.005601573-0.0209468416520.0051388768-0.0561097506530.0053189307-0.0053189307

Sheet4

Sheet5SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression StatisticsMultiple R0.4645204757R Square0.2157792723Adjusted R Square0.2004023953Standard Error0.088243538Observations53ANOVAdfSSMSFSignificance FRegression10.10927162650.109271626514.03271107390.0004583707Residual510.39713302170.007786922Total520.5064046482

CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%Intercept0.00316033320.01212250460.26069968780.7953738977-0.02117660990.0274972762-0.02117660990.0274972762Return Pasar (Rm)1.60546384490.42857786593.74602603750.00045837070.7450578952.46586979490.7450578952.4658697949RESIDUAL OUTPUT

ObservationPredicted R_ADESResiduals10.0264821594-0.038827838420.00982623240.002673767630.0111322184-0.047276796740.0008716355-0.01277639745-0.0253736858-0.00910907286-0.0197134627-0.04480266637-0.0033164023-0.02793359778-0.0475026248-0.002002325790.0191440175-0.066313828910-0.048800781-0.0452163131110.01526512880.2163138186120.0126299169-0.0126299169130.0509144106-0.050914410614-0.0093132846-0.021298960315-0.0529174045-0.0047749032160.0795856577-0.0984535822170.1226885130.055089264818-0.0438123497-0.0561876503190.01288591350.028780753120-0.1369885271-0.082523668210.00316033320.0050363881220.0031603332-0.0031603332230.0235712104-0.106277977324-0.0191116755-0.0100854048250.0347975809-0.0199827661260.0137289976-0.028327537827-0.06883217180.0474036004280.1110820408-0.074045003729-0.07958576590.126097393830-0.0313490946-0.09109988531-0.0612371183-0.031355474332-0.0237661422-0.0119481435330.0060962745-0.0178609804340.01565580570.0468441943350.0619814035-0.061981403536-0.0139407167-0.050386768737-0.0032474412-0.0724282345380.02307738360.0162484591390.00679098950.085233550440-0.0016875861-0.1076020314410.07720359860.159282887942-0.02887352290.252014018843-0.01501373490.0858101951440.02414449880.0031282285450.05855793470.0638910449460.0175544424-0.0175544424470.04552687420.0809099074480.0066136909-0.029085601490.0190897935-0.137901674750-0.00686329970.3151534551510.0626562041-0.030570642652-0.0347408194-0.0640543613530.0031603332-0.0031603332

Sheet1

TanggalReturn Saham Mingguan (Ri)Return Pasar (Rm)R_ADES30 December 20130.01825557810.014526535-0.012345679023 December 20130.02282157680.0041520080.012500000016 December 20130.01260504200.004965472-0.036144578309 December 2013-0.0364372470-0.001425568-0.011904761902 December 20130.1101123596-0.017773069-0.034482758625 November 2013-0.0305010893-0.014247469-0.064516129018 November 20130.0479452055-0.004034183-0.031250000011 November 20130.0503597122-0.031556586-0.049504950504 November 20130.06377551020.009955805-0.047169811328 October 2013-0.0508474576-0.032365172-0.094017094021 October 2013-0.00481927710.0075397500.231578947414 October 2013-0.01658767770.0058983480.000000000007 October 20130.13746630730.0297447230.000000000030 September 2013-0.0462724936-0.007769479-0.030612244923 September 20130.0156657963-0.034929306-0.057692307716 September 2013-0.04726368160.047603267-0.018867924509 September 2013-0.04285714290.0744508700.177777777802 September 20130.0632911392-0.029258014-0.100000000026 August 20130.23437500000.0060578010.041666666719 August 20130.0958904110-0.087294934-0.219512195112 August 2013-0.03947368420.0000000000.008196721305 August 20130.00000000000.0000000000.000000000029 July 2013-0.05000000000.012713383-0.082706766922 July 2013-0.0857142857-0.013872632-0.029197080315 July 2013-0.03581267220.0197059860.014814814808 July 20130.00833333330.006582935-0.014598540101 July 2013-0.0862944162-0.044842184-0.021428571424 June 20130.05347593580.0672215120.037037037017 June 2013-0.0650000000-0.0515403070.046511627910 June 20130.0781671159-0.021494989-0.122448979603 June 2013-0.0487179487-0.040111431-0.092592592627 May 20130.0743801653-0.016771773-0.035714285720 May 20130.05523255810.001828718-0.011764705913 May 20130.00291545190.0077830920.062500000006 May 2013-0.02832861190.0366380540.000000000029 April 20130.0143678161-0.010651781-0.064327485422 April 2013-0.0645161290-0.003991229-0.075675675715 April 20130.00000000000.0124057920.039325842708 April 20130.00813008130.0022614380.092024539901 April 2013-0.0027027027-0.003019638-0.109289617525 March 20130.02493074790.0461195470.236486486518 March 20130.0055710306-0.0199530220.223140495911 March 2013-0.0477453581-0.0113201350.070796460204 March 20130.01891891890.0130704690.027272727325 February 20130.00817438690.0345056670.122448979618 February 2013-0.03926701570.0089657010.000000000011 February 20130.01058201060.0263889720.126436781604 February 2013-0.01305483030.002151003-0.022471910128 January 2013-0.01033591730.009922030-0.118811881221 January 20130.0051948052-0.0062434500.308290155414 January 2013-0.01534526850.0370583690.032085561507 January 2013-0.0509708738-0.023607603-0.098795180701 January 20130.00000000000.0000000000.0000000000

PortofolioPortofolio Dua Saham

Harga Penutupan AALIHarga Penutupan ADESReturn AALIReturn ADES25,100.002,000.000.0182555781-0.012345679024,650.002,025.000.02282157680.012500000024,100.002,000.000.0126050420-0.036144578323,800.002,075.00-0.0364372470-0.011904761924,700.002,100.000.1101123596-0.034482758622,250.002,175.00-0.0305010893-0.064516129022,950.002,325.000.0479452055-0.031250000021,900.002,400.000.0503597122-0.049504950520,850.002,525.000.0637755102-0.047169811319,600.002,650.00-0.0508474576-0.094017094020,650.002,925.00-0.00481927710.231578947420,750.002,375.00-0.01658767770.000000000021,100.002,375.000.13746630730.000000000018,550.002,375.00-0.0462724936-0.030612244919,450.002,450.000.0156657963-0.057692307719,150.002,600.00-0.0472636816-0.018867924520,100.002,650.00-0.04285714290.177777777821,000.002,250.000.0632911392-0.100000000019,750.002,500.000.23437500000.041666666716,000.002,400.000.0958904110-0.219512195114,600.003,075.00-0.03947368420.008196721315,200.003,050.000.00000000000.000000000015,200.003,050.00-0.0500000000-0.082706766916,000.003,325.00-0.0857142857-0.029197080317,500.003,425.00-0.03581267220.014814814818,150.003,375.000.0083333333-0.014598540118,000.003,425.00-0.0862944162-0.021428571419,700.003,500.000.05347593580.037037037018,700.003,375.00-0.06500000000.046511627920,000.003,225.000.0781671159-0.122448979618,550.003,675.00-0.0487179487-0.092592592619,500.004,050.000.0743801653-0.035714285718,150.004,200.000.0552325581-0.011764705917,200.004,250.000.00291545190.062500000017,150.004,000.00-0.02832861190.000000000017,650.004,000.000.0143678161-0.064327485417,400.004,275.00-0.0645161290-0.075675675718,600.004,625.000.00000000000.039325842718,600.004,450.000.00813008130.092024539918,450.004,075.00-0.0027027027-0.109289617518,500.004,575.000.02493074790.236486486518,050.003,700.000.00557103060.223140495917,950.003,025.00-0.04774535810.070796460218,850.002,825.000.01891891890.027272727318,500.002,750.000.00817438690.122448979618,350.002,450.00-0.03926701570.000000000019,100.002,450.000.01058201060.126436781618,900.002,175.00-0.0130548303-0.022471910119,150.002,225.00-0.0103359173-0.118811881219,350.002,525.000.00519480520.308290155419,250.001,930.00-0.01534526850.032085561519,550.001,870.00-0.0509708738-0.098795180720,600.002,075.00 AALI dan ADES-0.0417291223----> Koefisien Korelasi-0.041729122

Rumus Standar Deviasi dua sekuritasp = [Wa2a2 + Wb2b2 + 2(Wa)(Wb)(ab)ab]1/2

E (R,) AALISd AALIE (R,) ADESSd ADESBbt AALIBbt ADESStandar DeviasiReturn Portofolio0.08931695230.058330027-0.05378074090.0986841247100.0017011960.08931695230.08931695230.058330027-0.05378074090.09868412470.90.10.00140504330.0750071830.08931695230.058330027-0.05378074090.09868412470.80.20.00124510410.06069741370.08931695230.058330027-0.05378074090.09868412470.70.30.00122137840.04638764440.08931695230.058330027-0.05378074090.09868412470.60.40.00133386630.0320778750.08931695230.058330027-0.05378074090.09868412470.50.50.00158256780.01776810570.08931695230.058330027-0.05378074090.09868412470.40.60.00196748280.00345833640.08931695230.058330027-0.05378074090.09868412470.30.70.0024886113-0.01085143290.08931695230.058330027-0.05378074090.09868412470.20.80.0031459534-0.02516120230.08931695230.058330027-0.05378074090.09868412470.10.90.003939509-0.03947097160.08931695230.058330027-0.05378074090.0986841247010.0048692782-0.0537807409

Jadi portofolio yang sebaiknya dipilih yaitu 100 % pada PT. Astra Agro Lestari Tbk