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1/94

?

A B@F KN X F [F

[QGB @ LN GBF@ [LGB

%%%%%%%%%f=f%%%%%%%%%

Ngb {gl {loe k Nsn {l`

^`gl x`g gbl`g ns dlfo ln [qgb ` ln Gbf` {lgb 1=?1

[g ngb {gl

\S[ \P KGB E LGL NGL AF^E DLGB LFGB L [LGB GBG LGB

[LGB E@ [@ X@[ GOE KO [QGD@GL GBL@E [L B@@

Gle gbgl: DK?

L G` gbp ?3 {lgb =; ge 1=?1


2/94

`

KOGL EN [X@[ [[

OKA : Gbg lgb ]l{ {`g Nls AL[B : Af lè {`g b`

A^H : Nl ~ xgbgl gbg lgb

N]@ : Nl ~ b` {`s kgb

K@X : [ nln af lè {`g b` X`{ Goe

CR^ : L {lgb ngl af ~e

HK@ : Xg s { {n {`} gn gbf`

HK@N : [} fg af lè {`g b` E

HCK : Nn k { i`g aogb E

H@@ : Xg s { b`g {`} gn gbf`

@EH : _s {`g { qsn {

GLGG : Gbg lgb gl gn

GL[E : Gbg lgb {lgb e`

GL[R : Gbg lgb {sgb gb

QA@ : Gbg lgb {sgb gb g

S^K : gb Kfiio E

XGK : X`{ Goe gb

R[F : [ nln {lgb e` [l b`


3/94

``

KOGL EN AGB

Agb ?: Nl ~ k af dlgb lfgb {` nlgl x glgb i kf d`gl { io nlg '''''' 1>

Agb 1: Nn b`o` fg x{lcf en no gbgl gbg lgb g '''''''''''''''''''''' >3

Agb >: D{ qs e lgl Fkcck ]fa`{ x nn nl ~ nlgl ''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' >


4/94

```

KOGL EN A@S

A`s ?: [lop ` {g kgb nlo {logl {fg nlf dls xn }l` {ln }le {lcf {lgb

no nn Gbg lgb [lgb e` g ,[gl {lcf gb Q~'Nfc) ''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' >=

A`s 1: Xg s { b`g {`} gb {lcf {lgb no g ,Q~' Nfc) ''''''''''''''''''''' >?

A`s >: I` ~s{ HCK b`o` fg 1===%1=?? '''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' ;>

A`s ;: [lop ` {gb {g kgb {ln nlf dl xn { glg {gb {`g b` {lcf ge

no GL[E E ,1==?%1=??) '''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' ;8

A`s 3: [lop ` ggbf` { {` ~g gbf` { x k { gbf` {{lcf ge no l

{lgb GL[E E ,1==?%1=??) '''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' ;8

A`s 8: Nl ~ xgbgl gbg lgb no Eb`o` fg 1==?%1=?? ''''''''''''''''''''' ;2

A`s 2: I` ~s{ lsp gb no X`{ Goe x e{ ~gn {fgb dls xn '''''''''''''''' 8>

A`s


5/94

`x

EN IN

I@ ES ''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' ?

NLGB @: [GB _SOG X DLGB LFGB L [LGB GBG LGB[LGB E@ X \P KGB E LGL NGL AF Ê DLGBLFGB L [LGB GBG LGB [LGB E@ [QG [L B@@ '''''''''''''' 3

?' ? Dlgb lfgb l {lgb gbg lgb {lgb e` ''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' 3

?'?'?'gl gblo ''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' 3

?'?'1'Gbspg glg ''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' 2

?'?'1'?' Gbspg glg i`g qsog g nn ps { x` e ''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' 2

?'?'1'1' Gbspg glg i`g qsog g nlgl ~nl d`gl {x e''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' 0

?'?'1'>' Gbspg glg i`g qsog g nl`g in x lf{ gb no {gb gbg lgb '''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' ?=

?'?'1';' Nn gbspg glg dln ''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' ??

?'?'>'gl lgb no dlgb lfgb l {lgb gbg lgb {lgb e` { gg d`gl{qsn kg ''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' ??

?'?'>'?' [ {gb ~g }le qsn kg ''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' ?1

?'?'>'1' [ dls xn }l` ~g |s{ no gg d`gl {'''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' ?1

?'?'>'>' [ nn nlgl ~nl d`gl { no nlgl }l ''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' ?1?'?'>';' [ {l{ gbl`} x n ns iof gb no qsn bò '''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' ?>

?' 1 \p kgb e lgl ngl af ~e dlgb lfgb l {lgb gbg lgb '''''''' ?>

?'1'?' Dl` gè x e lgl ngl af ~e dlgb lfgb l {lgb gbg lgb '' ?>

?'1'?'?' Dl` gè '''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' ?>

?'1'?'1' Nn e lgl {ln gblè n } kgb '''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' ?;

?'1'1'_sp {gl |p kgb e lgl ngl af ~e dlgb lfgb l {lgb gbg

lgb '''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' ?3?'1'1'?' \n gl nn bò` fg dlgb lfgb '''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' ?3

?'1'1'1' Io nlg nn nl ~ ngl af '''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' 11

?'1'1'>' n igb |n ~s{ dlgb lfgb '''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' 1;

?'1'>'E lgl ngl af ~e dlgb lfgb l {lgb gbg lgb {` s ''''''''''''''' 18


6/94

x

NLGB @@' D@GL GBL@E \P KGB E LGL NGL AF ÊDLGB LFGB L [LGB GBG LGB [LGB E@ [@ E[ ^_SN B@O [QG [L B@@ X A@ LN NLF X@[ GOE ''''''''''''''''''''''''''' 10

1'?' \p kgb e lgl ngl af ~e dlgb lfgb l {lgb gbg lgb {` gbò` fg 1===%1==0 '''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' 10

1'?'?'Glgb dl dlg {qfgb l {lgb gbg lgbg bò` fg 1===%1==0 '' 10

1'?'1'\p kgb e lgl ngl af ~e dlgb lfgb l {lgb gbg lgb {lgbe` {`g bò` fg 1===%1==0 '''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' >?

1'?'1'?' \n gl nn bò` fg |p o dlgb lfgb gbg lgb {` g agb}lgb }l} nl ~ ''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' >1

1'?'1'1' Io nlg nn nl ~ ngl af nlf dlgb lfgb gbg lgb {` g ''''' >8

1'?'1'>' n igb |n ~s{ |p o dlgb lfgb gbg lgb {` g agb}lgb }l} {loe ~ '''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' >2

1'1' \p kgb e lgl af ~e dlgb lfgb l {lgb gbg lgb {lgb e`{` Ebò` fg 1===1=?? '''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' ;=

1'1'?'Glgb gbspg glg x k`g a`g nlgl no nsn dlgb lfgb {` nlgl {Èbò` fg 1=='?'Nl~xgbgl gbg lgb ng n |n gl {lgb qso nn ` f l{lgb x `s nlgl glgb {n gb gbg lg ''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' 33

1'>'1'Io nlg en gbgb |n gl dlgb lfgb i`gl lf{ ''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' 33


7/94


8/94

x``

>';'>' x l {lgb gbg lgb {lgb e` ''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' 2';'>'?' Ggb nof en nlgl |n x e`gl anl {fgb ngb a {lgb {`g ''''''''' 2';'>'1' Ggb nof nl{ igb qsg { ` f '''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' 20

D[ ISG '''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''


9/94

x```

[E [[ [@

{` |s{ |p kgb e lgl ngl af ~e dlgb lfgb l {lgbgbg lgb {lgb e` {` X`{ Goe ko {g d`gl gblè {l b`` ~ be =>nlgb:

[fgb Nlgb @ ~os dl` o o dl` gè gbspg glg x gl lgb no

dlgb lfgb l {lgb gbg lgb {lgb e` gle gbl`g ns ~ b` {l`s e{ nnl

{gb qs{ x qsp {gl |p kgb e{ e lgl ngl af ~e dlgb lfgb l {lgb

gbg lgb {lcf nn }lgb }l} dln glos' D{ {ln Nlgb @ e lgl {` s n

io nlg i e lgl d{ l} bò lo` }lgb }l} nl ~ xgbgl gbg lgb x

{loe ~,~os p b` {{ ie lgl A^H%{loe ~)' E lgl gp ~n ~ kgb {fgb

gbl`g ns nn nlgb {`} {lcf'

[fgb Nlgb @@ }lg s {` ~ {} {sgb xf x`n gbl`g ns d`gl

gblè } kgb e lgl A^H%{loe ~ ngl af dlgb lfgb l {lgb gbg lgb

{` g ' [ gle gbl`g ns o o n e{ ~ a` ln d`gl gblè {fgb x`n

} kgb e lgl {` g ' [` E ~os nsn dlgb lfgb {` nlgl a{ s {ge

1==


10/94


11/94

1

ngl af ~e dlgb lfgb gbg lgb n gbl`g ns e{ nnl n i} n e{ ~

ngb {gl gbl`g ns gl ~os:

Kce`bn%Dsg{ x Kc{obònlc ,?00' ` {gb x }le x` gbl`g ns {` gbl`g ns {lsn nlspg gbgl {` nlgl gbg lgb {} {sgb nlspg

~s xf glgb xg x dlgb lfgb xno l {lgb GL[E'

Xdlgb bòg {` nl ps gbl`g ns x l {lgb GL[E {` g E x

X`{ Goe'

X {l` bòg bò` fg gbl`g ns {gb {e i 1===1=?? ag ngl nn

bò` fg dln ngb n n} g l {gbl`g ns nn xg n gs {fgb

{`'


12/94


13/94

;

Nlgb >: B`` }l} |p kgb x lfg {l`g e lgl ngl af ~e dlgb

lfgb l {lgb gbg lgb {lgb e` {` X`{ Goe ko {g d`gl gbl`e

{l b`


14/94

3

NLGB @: [GB _SOG X DLGB LFGB L [LGB GBG LGB

[LGB E@ X \P KGB E LGL NGL AF Ê DLGB

LFGB L [LGB GBG LGB [LGB E@ [QG [L B@@

?' ? Dlgb lfgb l {lgb gbg lgb {lgb e`?'?'?' gl gblo

D { glgb ge ?00= n { gl`s nn gl gblo x dlgb lfgb l {lgb

gbg lgb {lgb e` ,DLL[ GL[E) lop dlgb lfgb l {lgb gbg lgb n o

`' [p {lcf qsog è en nl gbl`g ns ngb gl d{ qs gbl`g ns no e`

gl gbl`g ns e nn gl gblo no l x DLL[ GL[E i` n glgb n è

dln glos' [fgb n e{ ~gl gblo n nf` i dl {fg k`g x nlgb le

nlo n glgb gbspg glg a`s l`g ngb gl ls qs no nn nsn dlgb lfgb

l {lgb gbg lgb'

Glg nlsgb dl` g` x dlgb lfgb l {lgb gbg lgb n {l |ce |{ 3 qsog

è }l a`g ~os:

[lgl{ {lcf qsog è no Noife``~ ( Bf{fg ,?00?)? DLL[ GL[E |p

o dl` nn nl ggl`s lfn {{ n nn gbg lgb {fgb l {lgb gbg lgb { gb{

ps ns nn gbg lgb nlspg ` qspg ` gno egl o {`g lfn {gb gb

{`g en qs nof dl`g nn gbg lgb }l` {e gbgb qs {gl nlspg ` gp'

[llo` {lcf qsog è no No}`f ( Di`gbca`ci ,?008)1 DLL[ GL[E |p

o dl` b` { gb no l {lgb gbg lgb ls gl lfn lfg {fg a ng d`{'

[lao {lcf qsog è noIsn Iocxcg ( Hoaòg Xoicgnò ,1==3)> e{ nsndlgb lfgb l {lgb gbg lgb ~ |p o dl` dls xn {` nlgl x kfogl gbl`} no

?]ffgoe Bs}{o4 1==1 Aogd`gb N`~c~: O ^sxcp fh {lc I`{co{sc @g{cgo{`fgoi Efgc{op Hsgk |ce gbp?1&=?&1=?1 9l{{}:&&rrr'èh'fb&c|{cgoi&nfsg{p&`gk&&1==1&}kh&=3=1=1'}kh7'1 Bcok No}`f J' ogk Kog`cio Di`gbca`ci4 ?008 Aogd @g~fixcgnp: Aok Isnd) Aok ]fi`np) f Aok Aogd`gb6)[lc Rfik Aogd'
http://www.imf.org/external/country/ind/rr/2002/pdf/050202.pdfhttp://www.imf.org/external/country/ind/rr/2002/pdf/050202.pdfhttp://www.imf.org/external/country/ind/rr/2002/pdf/050202.pdf


15/94

8

e{ qsn bò ` xf {gl {gb dlgb dlggb { g gb {l` nn gl nl {`

nlgl x nn kfogl gbl`} ~ }l` ` e{ x` nn dl dlg gblè {gb {fgb x`n

lfg { nn l} gb gb lg' D{ qs i nn dlfg g|s ,G]I~) {gb egl dl`g

nlf }lg ig lfn {{ n xg no {fg a l {lgb gbg lgb ~ a ng d`{'

[l{ qsog è noKce`bsnDsg{ ( Kc{obònlc ;n a`{ g ig s

{`g xf ge ?00 Isn Iocxcg ogk Hoaòg Xoicgnò4 1==3 ^p~{ceo{`n Aogd`gb N`~c~: O Gcr Ko{oao~c) @EH Rfd`gb ]o}c=


16/94

2

?'?'1' Gbspg glg

?'?'1'?' Gbspg glg i`g qsog g nn ps {x` e^ a{ g no {gl lgl d`gl { x` e n {l i gbspg glg nlgl kg g ~

a{ g no l {lgb gbg lgb' Nn ps { x` e n n} gl`s {fgb nn gbl`g

ns bg p gl glgb gbspg glg bp o DLL[ GL[E aof be ` f i` ~s{ `

f {g kgb ` f {logl dlfg x ` f {l{gb'

`) Q` f {g kgb

Nn gbl`g ns no Af`f ( Ifrc ,1==1)3 C`nlcgbccg ( O{c{o ,1===)8

Doe`g~dp ( Qc`glo{ ,?000)2 nl o gb {gb {gb {g kgb ggb i e{ gbspg

glg kg g dlgb lfgb l {lgb GL[E' [gb {gb {g kgb ggb n {l |s{

}l{ { gl`s i kf dln glos' [fgb e{ ~{gb l} g nlgl i d{ qs no x`n

{ kf lo {` nlgl lop a` ann qsp gl x {` nlgl nlf }l} gbg lgb n gl`s

n l` lg {`} ng x glgb {l {gb {g kgb e`' Gbf` o {gb {gb {g

kgb ggb ngb n {l a{ gbsg { ~bò {gb kgb xg k` nlspg xf {lgb qso nn

glg { ag gbf` qsn bò ,x kgl x`n i` ~s{ no nn gg d`gl { }l{ {`g en

{l}) lfn gp ~`gl { glgb bò` fg e { i ie }l{ qsn bò bè {l`s e{

nnl gb d' Gbspg glg gp n {l kg g x`n nn gbg lgb egb nlgl ~nl

nlf xop ngb gl in qsog lg {fgb x`n gl b` ` f { nn dlfg nlf xop'

X`n {` {nlf qs gl`s nn kg s { n en ` f nof {fgb dl` gb` `

xop i` dlgb n dlggb lfg { dlfg xop ~ dl`g nlf b` { {` ~g n no

gbg lgb bè df {lcf b` { gb no gbg lgb a bè ~{ x {le nl n {l kg

{ }l ~g'

``)

Q` f {logl dlfg

3Af`f ogk Ifrc ,1==1) O~~c{ }`nc~ h`gognòi ogk efgc{op ~{oaì`{p: c|}if`gb {lc gc|s~ A@^ R] ??;'8C`nlcgbccg ogk O{c{o ,1===) Aogd`gb n`~c~ `g Cecb`gb Eodc{~: }c~se}{`fg~ ogk cx`kcgnc Ncg{c hf@g{cgo{`fgoi ogk Kcxcif}ecg{ Cnfgfe`n~ R] N==%??3'2Doe`g~dp ogk Qc`glo{ ,?000) [r`g N`~c~: [lc nos~c~ fh Aogd`gb ogk Aoiognc%fh]opecg{ ]faice~ [lcOec`nog Cnfgfe`n Qcx`cr xfi'


17/94

' Gbspg glg i`g qsog g nl`g in x lf{ gb no {gb gbg lgbDlgb lfgb l {lgb gbg lgb n {l |s{ }l{ { nlgl glgb dlgb lfgb

no {gb gbg lgb `gb i' Kf {gl nl{ lf{ gb eogb {gl egb i` gg dlgb

lfgb no {gb gbg lgb ~ k kgb a iog gb x gl lgb g n l {lgb' [lgb

{lgb glgb ps {~os p n {l bp o dlgb lfgb no {gb gbg lgb:


20/94

??

Ps de {fgb x`n {le gl {gl kgb4

E{ ng ` {fgb x`n n} {g kgb x x`n xop xg bò nn gbg lgb4

Glgb ` f i`g qsog g i` ~s{ lfn { b` l` f`4

Lf{ gb {fgb glgb igl xn e nlo gl`s d`gl gblè4

Glgb ps de i`g qsog g {gl qsg i glg ~ ngb gbl'

?'?'1';' Nn gbspg glg dlnE{ ~{n glg dln gl bòg ig lop {loe glgb ngb n {l b} }lg bp o

dlgb lfgb l {lgb gbg lgb' Glgb gbspg glg gp glg nlsgb |s{ }l{ {

{fgb nlgl g` agbg lgb gl glg x`g aog `s lgl4 glgb nl {l dln ag

gbf` l {lgb gbg lgb gl gb b` {`g kfogl gbl`} nlgl }l Lg gox ~ }l{ {`g glogl nlgb ngb x ~o kgb lo {fgb nn lf{ gb gbg lgb

nn lgl x` bòg ig x {loe glgb ngb n {l {ln l`g k gl`s nnl {ln x

}lgb {ln dln glos `g lgl gl qso l {lgb nn {l`{ a`g {gl ep x`

{gl O[E

?'?'>' gl lgb no dlgb lfgb l {lgb gbg lgb {lgb e` { gg

d`gl {qsn kg

Dl` |p o dlgb lfgb l {lgb gbg lgb {lgb e` ~ a{n gb e{ nnl

{n {`} x egl e gl{' X`n { xg g { dl` l {lgb ~ dl`g nlf dlggb

{logl dlfg no nn gbg lgb a bè ~{ { nn gbg lgb ~ }l` bò {gb nl`

}l } gb gls ns {logl dlfg no egl' Ag ngl lf{ gb {g kgb ngb

~ a b`g fg x en bò {gb g|s i glsg no nn gbg lgb ~ agl lgb

ggb g'

Ag ngl l {lgb gbg lgb isg n nf` i lsp{ enl no gg d`gl {

gg gl lgb no nsn dlgb lfgb l {lgb gbg lgb nln nlg ~{n gb g

{gb {gb no gg d`gl { qsn kg' N {l:


21/94

?1

?'?'>'?' [ {gb ~g }le qsn kgDlgb lfgb l {lgb GL[E ~ bp {g {l{ { {gb ~g }le qsn g`'Dl`

|p o dlgb lfgb gbg lgb lf{ gb no nn GL[E ~ ab`g fg { { kf a

}l ~g gb no lfn ~} gl}' [ nn gbg lgb ~ {lg {gb lg {fgb x`n o

qsp{ gl n} {g kgb nlf nn nl {l {fgb gg d`gl { x if gb` ` f nof' D{ qs

i dls xn ~g |s{ ~ dl {`} ng x gbsg xg xop x dlgb {l egb n ~g

|s{' Ls qs {l`{ ps i BK] no qsn bò ~ a ~{ bè' [lcf gbl`g ns no

Losbl K']' Fii`xosk ( K'[sgc ,1==0)0x {n gb no dlgb lfgb gbg lgb

` x` nn gn FNCK {l ls dlgb lfgb ~g igb s o no qsn bò ~ a {l`{

l` {1 g > ig lfn gl`s lg go ~f x` bò` fg {n dlgb lfgb x {l bòg }ln l` i` en ~g igb {n dlgb lfgb ng { gl{ 1 ig qsgb {l bòg |p

o dlgb lfgb'

?'?'>'1' [ dls xn }l` ~g |s{ no gg d`gl {Dl` |p o dlgb lfgb gbg lgb dls xn }l` ~g |s{ no gg d`gl {ngb

~ agl lgb ggb g'Dlgb nl n dls xn ~g |s{ e dls xn }l` ~g |s{ n

{l i d`gl kfogl a{ gb ~g x nlgb dlfg ~ }l` nlgb d`g e{ ~ ~{ bè

gb d{fgb s {' `s gp ngb n b`` {lnl i kf x`n lg nl n} {g kgb

no gbg lgb n a`{ i nlf glgb gbgl n ` f nof gl nlgb dlfg x a{

gb ~g {fgb {l d dlgb lfgb'

?'?'>'>' [ nn nlgl ~nl d`gl {no nlgl }lDlgb lfgb gbg lgb ~ie nlnl lgb nn nlgl ~nl d`gl { no nlgl

}l'Dl` DLGL |p o GLGG ~ }l` nog {l`} gl gb nlf xop ns` ngb {lgb

qso x`n l {xg eso i` nn dlfg gdl ` no nn GL[E af lè nlf nn

dlfg {`g b` lg nl x`n { {`g { lfn ae {`g xf nn GL[E n gbsp n

~} gle ns nn gbg lgb gp {n l`g {gb { {`g lgb if{ gbg nlg

0Losbl K' ]' Fii`xosk ogk K' [sgc ,1==0) [lc Eonfcnfgfe`n Nfg~cqscgnc~ fh Aogd`gb N`~c~ `g FCNKNfsg{`c~ FCNK Cnfgfe`n~ Kc}o{ecg{ Rfd`gb ]o}c~ Gf' 8 FCNK ]sai`~l`gb'


22/94

?>

}lg gb kp nlspg lg nl {` o glgb {l`{ l` no nsn dlgb lfgb' [gl

lsgb gp asn GLGG }l` } kgb nlgl ~nl {`g { igb e en {`s dlgb }l` i

dnl ns' G` nnl dln en nl no nlgl ~nl {`g { {` dlo aa} ef'

?'?'>';' [ {l{ gbl`} x n ns iof gb no qsn bòDlgb lfgb gbg lgb ie {gb gbsp n ie }l{ {l{ gbl`} x gl lgb

n ns iof gb no qsn bò' Gs dlgb lfgb |p o kf x`n { xg { no gb

b` {`g {l l {lgb GL[E ~` xf {gl {gb {l`s l{ {`g {e {gb' GLGG kf

~ n {l }l` ae {`g xf l {lgb }ln x x ksp { lf{ gb no nn

GL[E' X`n nsgb {`g {gb nof ~ {f } in bp o ie }l{ bè ~n ngl {ogl no

gg d`gl {' [ gg d`gl {ngb }l` ` e{ x glgb ls qs d {`} gl {l{gbl`} n ns iof gb qsn bò agl lgb'

?' 1 \p kgb e lgl ngl af ~e dlgb lfgb l {lgb gbg lgb?'1'?' Dl` gè x e lgl ngl af ~e dlgb lfgb l {lgb gbg lgb

?'1'?'?' Dl` gè[ glgb gbl`g ns {ln gblè {g {l b` {lcf gle {n b` e lgl

ngl af ~e dlgb lfgb l {lgb gbg lgbn |p kgb ko {g nn nl~

i`g qsog g lf{ gb no {fg a l {lgb gbg lgb {fgb e{ qsn bò {lcf e{

nls {l` bòg |n gl { o o n igb x|n ~s{ |p o e{ nsn dlgb

lfgb dls xn gbg lgb {fgb {gb io`) b`} nlgl }lx nn n qsog nln ggb

n i`g qsog o glgb nlgl ~nl x lgl gb gle {gl lfn bè {l`s glgb

` f x ls qs e nsn dlgb lfgb eogb i`'

` x dlgb lfgb gbg lgb ps {~e {fgb {ls{ gbngl af ~e

{lcf gbl`g ns no Bfik~{c`g Doe`~dp ( Qc`glo{ ,1===)n |n gl i {? g

?1 {lgb {n dl` a{ s e{ nsn dlgb lfgb lfn nle gl{ i g ?1 {lgb ~os

dl` nsn dlgb lfgb a{ s' N lo` i kf nlf xg gp:


23/94

?;

Nn nsn dlgb lfgb gbg lgb {lgb df k` ;%3 ge4

gl è no dlgb lfgb gbg lgb {lgb k`g o x` ge ~os dl` g a{

s'

Gl xp x`n { n e{ {g l`s ngl af ~e gbop n dl` e{ nsn dlgb

lfgb a{ s i xg n nl'

?'1'?'1' Nn e lgl {ln gblè n } kgbGs gl dlgb lfgb {`g {n |ce |{ x gbl`g ns { glgb ge 2= no

{l d 1= {l dlgb lfgb gbg lgb e a{ s n g` g {fgb {l} g`g 0= no

{l d' p ngb i bò` fg |p o gl`s nsn dlgb lfgb gbg lgb gl{ {g {l

b`'

gb {l e lgl ngl af ~e dlgb lfgb gbg lgb {lgb n gbl`g

ns {fgb e` qsog l x dlgb lfgb {`g { lop ng n b` i dlgb lfgb

d} ,{r`g n`~`~)' E{ ~ gbl`g ns x e lgl gp n b` {gl:

Kce`bsn Dsg{ ( Kc{obònlc ,?00


24/94

?3

l`s no nsn dlgb lfgb gbg lgb' Nn {n b` io nlg nn nl ~n nlf i

nlo {lgb {`g kfg nsn dlgb lfgb gbg lgb ~os {gb l} nn a`g {f

o e{ {g l`s {gb l}' [g l`s x dlgb lfgb gbg lgb n a{ gs {{ nn a`g

{lgl }lg x{ qso gbgb no egl ngb e{ in'

?'1'1' _sp {gl |p kgb e lgl ngl af ~e dlgb lfgb l {lgb gbglgb

?'1'1'?' \n gl nn bò` fg dlgb lfgb`' [lcf }lgb }l} ~ d`g

[fgb nn gbl`g ns x dlgb lfgb gbg lgb nn gl gbl`g ns {lgb ~

kgb lo` }lgb }l} |n gl {l` è |p o dlgb lfgb gbg lgb' ]lgb

}l} s {`g ko {g ~ d{ l} nn ~ d`g glg gl x |n gl {l bòg |p o

dlgb lfgb gbg lgb' Glgb ~ d`g gp {lgb aof be:

A{ asn }l` gb no ~} gl} lfn ~ nog {l`} no nlgl }l` x lf{

gb no nn { nln {` nlgl4

Q{ {`g { dl` gbg lgb4

Egb nn nlgb {gl {b`} {g qsp e ig no nlgl }l nlf dls xn

gbg lgb'

]lgb }l} gp n ~ kgb }l a`g a i {l { ~ ~g n x k {e dè

no nn k i`s {lgb {`g x nn {l` è n ~ nog {l`} no nlgl }l x glgb

{lop ` x glgb {lop ` x is{ i {fgb l {lgb gbg lgb'

``' [lcf }lgb }l} nl ~

]lgb }l} {llo` |n gl {l bòg |p o dlgb lfgb gbg lgb i ~

kgb nn nl ~ ~ ln gl nn { i g|s ,G]I~) nl` }l lf{ gb ns {no gbg

lgb x ~ ~{ bè xg no gbg lgb o o glgb {g l`s k af {l bòg

dlgb lfgb gbg lgb agb g'


25/94

?8

[fgb ngb {gl gbl`g ns gp gle {n b`|`g o o e{ nl ~ eogb {gl

{gb l} x n {gl gl igb nof }lg gl {{ n nn ` f e l {lgb gbg lgb

}l` ` e{ i nl ~ xgbgl gbg lgb ,Aogd`gb ^cn{f Hobì`{pA^H)'

o' Nn ` f i`g qsog { x`n {gl {fg nl ~ A^H

^ xno l {lgb gbg lgb |s{ }l{ { { gl`s ` f glgb }lg ig

i:

Q` f {g kgb

Q` f {logl dlfg

Q` f {l{gb {fgb ` f {l{gb aof be ` f i` ~s{ ` f { b`

` f b` xg nl ~ls x ` f b` lgb lo'

[fgb gbl`g ns no Opds{ Dà`{n`fbis ,1==1) nl ~ A^H n |p kgb

ko {g ` f {logl dlfg ` f {g kgb x ` f { b`' Glgb ` f gp n {l

l`g {n {`} qso glgb a`g qsog ~{ n' Q` f {logl dlfg n igb lo qso

~{lop ` {fgb {gb {`g b` gbg lgb ,{ a`g { {`g b` x {`g e{) ` f {g

kgb n f igb agb ~ {lop ` {fgb {gb {g kgb gbg lgb ` x dls xn

g` o x ` f { b` {l l`g qso ~{lop ` no ggn gbf` agb gbf` { nogbg lgb'

Q` f {g kgbn |n gl i ` f qsog {gb gl{ ` x l {lgb gbg

lgb' If` ` f gp {l l`g qso ~bò {gb no glgb dlfg e{ e{ {è g `

x` gb nlf xop { glgb dlfg g|s dl` gb` ` xop dlgb n dlggb { g'

[fgb bò` fg d`gl {{gb {gb nof ~{gb {gb {g kgb nof n {l |s{ }l{

{ ~ }l{ {`g egl e no s { {ln |s{ dls x gl} dls ~{gb {gb no

iof gb x ~ {gb igb?= glgb nn ps {gp dlgb ` de x ~bò {gb no

glgb dlfg g|s' X xp { i glgb dlfg g|s ` x {gb {g kgb nlf xop

n |ce gl nl ~ l`s qsf igb ` f {g kgb' Gbf` o ~ agb g no {l

?= [lcf Hc~{`n x Qfe`l` 1==


26/94

?2

{gb nlf xop {l nl} Engb n {li ng ngb {`g np |p kgb a`g ~

{fgb ns {n nl ~ A^H'

Q` f {logl dlfg n f igb qso ~ {lop ` no {gb {g kgb gbg

lgb' Gbf` o e{ nl ~{` nlgl ngb n {n gb g ` f {logl dlfg:

[g kgb no gbg lgb {qsgb gb x` nn gl nl{` nlgl: ^ {lop

` ig {fgb {g kgb no gbg lgb {sgb gb` x` gbg lgb {lgb e`

x nn gl nl {` nlgl {lgb ` de x glgb xg {logl dlfg {fgb

dls xn {` nlgl'

Igb {`g b` {qfgb igb nsgb {`g: Glgb dlfg nlf xop bè {fgb igb

nsgb {`g E1 no l {lgb gbg lgb n {l |s{ }l{ { xg x {gl {logldlfg {fgb dls xn gp ,lfn ~ ~{ bè gè {`g { dls xn { glg dlnl

lgb nlspg ~ogb glgb gl nl}l` gbg lgb xop {`g)'

Nn nl~bò {` dlfg nlf xop x {` dlfg {`g b: Nl ~ {g kgb& {`g

b` n {l i ks l`s nlf {lp dlggb lsp gb {`g b` } gb gls ns

{g kgb no dlnl lgb ,n qsog ~{ {fgb nbò` fg {`g b` i`g gbg

lgb n if` {)'

Ns {n d lg no {` ~g x g}l` { no nn gl nl {` nlgl: X`n

qsog ~{ ns {n d lg {fgb kogl en {` ~g nlf xop x g}l` { n {l

glg {lp ~dlgb {gb gb bò d lg nlf xop x d lg { g kf ng

{l`{ }l` qsog {e lg g xg qsg i {logl dlfg'

[gl {logl dlfg no {l{qgb {ln}: [l{gb x ns {n x nl`s ~s

no glgb {` ~g k {logl dlfg p i {l{gb e gbg lgb { o nlsgb

dl` n gls ns x {gl {logl dlfg kf {l {gb gp { qsog {gb {fgb

gl b` x`n gbg lgb | i {lgf ` x glgb n ~n x {logl dlfg'

Gbf` o nl ~f igb ~ { {`g b` { gb{ ngb i e{ ps { qsog {gb

{fgb x`n gl b` dlgb lfgb gbg lgb'


27/94

? ps { ~os:

^ {lop ` {fgb {`g b` gbg lgb i ` k`g nlf ~ {lop ` {fgb ` f

{gl {logl dlfg'

^{lop ` {fgb {g kgb ` x dls xn { glg i ` k`g nlf ~{lop `

{fgb ` f {g kgb'

^ {lop ` {fgb g gn gbf` no gbg lgb i ` k`g nlf ~ {lop `

{fgb ` f { b`'

Ngb {ln nl ~ xgbgl gbg lgb gl ~os:

A^H%>{ 5 [fgb :

N]^{ 5 4 HI{ 5 4 KC]{ 5

[fgb :

N]^: {lop ` {g kgb dls xn { glg g` o {lcf ge {fgb l {lgb gbg lgb

,#)4

HI: {lop ` ggn gbf` {ln {lcf ge no gbg lgb ,#)4

KC]: {lop ` {gb {`g b` {ln {lcf ge no gbg lgb ,#)4

: b` { ~ ln {sgb agl no e` a`g {g4


28/94

?0

: inl {`s nlsg no e` a`g {g'

E{ nl ~ kaf {lgb n {gl |s lgb lfn {gl {l x' e af gb

nn nl ~ k af n ~g gl x dlgb agl lgb }lgb }l} gp `s nlgl

nn nl ~ agb x`n {gl {fg { i }lg {e {lop ` ~ i`s {lcf {lgb }l l} x

b` { no nl ~ xf ngb {l` è ge {n ' [ bè n ~o` inl no

nn a`g k af gs gl nl |ce |{ ~{lop ` {lcf {lgb e{ nnl g {lsg'

D{ qs {gl {fg no nl ~ A^H n {l n e{ ~ ~o` ~ kf glgb gbspg glg

~os:??

]lgb }l} nlg a`g x nnl {gl {fg nl ~ A^H

[fgb gbl`g ns no Opds{ Dà`{n`fbis nl {gl g > ` f e gbg lgb

{lgb b} }l` gl{' [sp gl`g ~ xno l {lgb no l {lgb gbg lgb n {l

|s{ }l{ { glgb gbspg glg dln' E{ {fgb glgb ps { nlgl i {gl {gb

lf{ gb no l {lgb gbg lgb {lgb n {l l`g qso en og {fg xg {` {l`s

x i glsg lop {ls gl} gb no gbg lgb' [ls gl} bè ~{ x glgb xg gp

~`gl {fgb x`n ksp { en og {fg xg n {l i ks l`s nlf `s d`g {` nlgl k

xno gbg lgb' Glgb ks l`s gp }lg gl ` f i` ~s{ {fgb l {lgb gbg

lgb'

X`n |n gl ps {|n gl ` f {g kgb: ^{gb {gb {g kgb dlgb

}l` isg gb gblo x x`n {gb nn dlfg g|s'

\n ~s{ ~o` ~ {è g: Nn nl ~ {l l`g }lg {e {lop ` {lcf ge {fgb

glgb a`g qsog ~{ glgb nl ~A^H n {gl ko {g ~{lop ` {lcf {lgb no

~ i`s' [fgb e{ ~{gb l} ~{lop ` { gb{ no a{ d a`g gf {fgb xgb ?

{lgb ~ n gl lgb g x`n {gl {fg ?1 b` { A^H dln ,e` {lgb n {gl n{fgb ?1 ig)'

n' E{ ~ nl x b` { no A^H

??[lcf qsog è no An' ^xo{f}isd ^xfafko K`}ifeo [lc~`~ H`gognòi ^{oaì`{p ogk Hobìc Aogd`gb ^p~{ce1==0


29/94

1=

B` { A^H ngb nof {l l`g gb lf{ gb no gbg lgb nlo gb ngb

gl`s > ` f n igb lo {g' Gs nn gbg lgb nsgb n} qs gl`s dlfg nlf

xop |n ~s{ nn dlfg nlf xop dlgb l`s qs{nl ip ngb nof gbg lgb ~ }l`

` e{ x ` f {g kgb' Ggn gbf` {gb {fgb agb ng ` d {fg dl`g gbg

lgb k a {g {lgb lg dl` { b` l` f` {lop ` kf ` f x {b` ngb {gb

ig' [gb {`g b` gbg lgb ngb nof gbg lgb }l` ` e{ x ` f {gl {logl

dlfg ngb nof' A x a{ d dlfg { {`g e{ ig {}lo gb b` {`g ~ dl`g

gbg lgb dl dlg {fgb b`` qsp{' [e i` nl ~ A^H n b` { nof en k dlgb

}l` i ks l`s no {gl x glgb g {l l`g gb lf{ gb gbg lgb ogb b}

{ gl`s ` f x xp nl ~ gp n {l i ~ ngl af x x{fgb {gb io`'

B` { A^H ngb bè {l l`g ~ x{fgb dls xn gbg lgb' ` x `

f {g kgb {gb {gb {g kgb {l} n {l i ks l`s gbg lgb ogb }l` ` k`g

x` gbsp n glgb dlfg g|s nof `s gp dl`g gbg lgb }l` {lg {gb lg

{fgb x`n n} glgb l} gb {g kgb e' [gb {`g b` gbg lgb bè i ks l`s

no ~ bè {gl {logl dlfg {fgb dls xn gbg lgb' ^{gb {gb {l} {fgb g

gn gbf` ,d n ~{gb {gb {`s nn) ngb i ks l`s no ` f {b` ogb n

n {llo' `s gp n {l i ls qs { ~ {{ b` no gb g` { ,dlgb lfgb {`g{) lop ~ ~{ bè d xgb {gb io` no gb g` {'

k' E lgl b`gl dlgb lfgb gbg lgb x dlfgb b` { no nl ~ A^H

[ glgb {lop ` no nl ~ A^H {fgb bò` fg gbl`g ns e{ nnl i

{lsp{ {n b` n {l|n gl n bò` fg |p o dlgb lfgb gbg lgb lop {

gl{ n {l|n gl bò` fg ~ xno dls xn gbg lgb i nof lop {l}'

Gbl`g ns noOpds{ Dà`{n`fbiso o nn en gbgb gl b` en xno gbgl gbg lgb gl ~os:

= 7 A^H%> 7 % = 3: L {lgb gbg lgb {fgb bò` fg x en {sgb

agl'


30/94

1?

A^H%> %= 3: L {lgb gbg lgb {fgb bò` fg xen nof'

gb {l {n b` }lg nlò ~ a`g ` no nl ~A^H {lgl 3 bò` fg:

Lgl ?: Nn bò` fg no nl ~ xgbgl gbg lgb

Bò` fg ?: Nl ~A^H {gb ig lg = e{ nnl gb d' Nl ~A^H {gb i

ks l`s nlf {lp ~ xno dls xn gbg lgb {l}' gb {l ks l`s gp ngb

glg egl gb l {lgb gbg lgb ogb {fgb bò` fg }l` nls ` f qs en' n {l i ks l`s {g {` no gg d`gl {afgb agb x {gb {gb qs ggb'

Bò` fg 1: Nl ~ A^H a{ s ~{ bè' p n {l i ~ dl` s no bò`

fg dlgb lfgb n {l dlgb lfgb gbg lgb ~ng bò {gb lg go' En

xno l {lgb gbg lgb ngb {gb kg {lcf'

Bò` fg >: Nl ~ A^H a{ s bè |sgb k b` {= glgb xg nof lg

b` { {l l`g ~ xno dls xn gbg lgb?1' [fgb ~s{ bò` fg gp l {lgb

gbg lgb {`g bg lg { en e |p o dlgb lfgb {ln ~' ^ xno dls xn

gbg lgb bò {gb gb d'

Bò` fg ;: Nl ~A^H ` qso en b` { |p o dlgb lfgb gbg lgb' ^

?1 [fgb gbl`g ns no {n b` i=3'


31/94

11

xno dls xn gbg lgb {`} {n bò {gb' ]lg ig dlgb lfgb gbg lgb k`g

o {e {gb gl{ {fgb bò` fg gp'

Bò` fg 3: Nl ~ A^H a{ s {gb {i` x b` {=' K` bn no ~

x{fgb dls xn gbg lgb p i bò` fg }ln l`' En xa{ s bè' Nn

gbg lgb kg kg qsg {n ` f {i`' Dl` b` { A^H nle { = lfn { bg

x b` { = n {l g` gb dlgb lfgb gbg lgb ` qso'

dè gblè d`g nlf gb l`g {gb { a`g { {`g b` dlgb b` xo`

{ qsog {gb {gb dlgb lfgb gbg lgb l`g Òpds{ Dà`{n`fbis |p kgb

e{ nl ~ xgbg lgb {lop {l A^H%1 n {gl {fg gl ~os:

A^H%1{ 5 Nl ~ A^H%1 ko {g x`n {gl {fg AH^%> dl` if` a ~{lop ` {ln no

{fgb {gb {`g b` gbg lgb ` x ~ x{` nlgl no gbg lgb' ^ nlgl inl

bò A^H%1 x A^H%> ~ i b`` {e qsog {gb no x`n { {`g { gb{ ` x

dlgb lfgb gbg lgb'

?'1'1'1'

Io nlg nn nl~ngl afDoe`g~dp I`zfgkf x Qc`glok ,?00

?>OKA 1==3' Nn n nl ngl af ~e dlgb lfgb {` nlgl} kgb nlf dls xn gb '


32/94

1>

Agb ?: Nl ~ kaf dlgb lfgb {` nlgl x glgb i kf d`gl { io nlg

Nl ~ kaf I kf io nlg

[` dlfg xgb io` \s{ gl} dls

[ b` {ln } kgb [ b` {ln ~f x` gb S^K Ng ng {lgb e`&BK]

\s{ dls de gl} dls {gb qs en gb g` {glb` nof ~f x {ln { n {l ie nlf {` dlfg xgb io`~sp ps x bg x dlgb lfgb {`g { {` gl`s gn'Glgb ps de {fgb qsog l d`gl {` gbf` x gbg` {{gb b` nof lg {ln {ngb ie {gb dlggb a{g no dls xn gbg lgb x x`n e{ dl ggb ngl{ogl {l{gb qsn { n {l kg g ~~sp {lf` xd`gl kfogl x bè nl{ igb nlf xop' Dlgb lfgbgbg lgb n {l kg g dlgb lfgb {`g {'

[` dlfg xg [` ~g ggbf` {&{` ~g n gbf` {

no dls xn gbg lgb K { gbf` { E1&k { gbf` { Nn isgb xg gbg lg&BK] Ggn gbf` gbg lg&k { gbf` {

X ~ bò {gb {fg n s lo x l` gl} {` nlgl {`dlfg xg n xg n {l ie nlf e{ qsn bò {ggk a {g {lgb ` x nn n ~n' [` dlfg xg n xg n {l aof be ~ bè ~{ k { gbf` { ggngbf` gbg lg qs gl`s e{ ng ` x d lg {`g {x l`g {gb xg { { o dl` { gn'

Dls xn {` nlgl [`g b`&E1 [g kgb g` o&BK] A`g bò i` ~s{ nlf xop x {`g b` Nlf xop&{`g b` E?&BK] L ~ nsgb {`g { E1 [`g b` GL[E {ln I` ~s{ {ln g` o

Nn nsn dlgb lfgb gbg lgb x {`g { n ~ i`g d{x ~ {gb {gb {g kgb qs glogl kf nsgb {`g {{gb qs en gl`s gn' [fgb dl` {`g b` gbglgb bè i` ~s{ {ln {fgb gn nof a`g bò i`~s{ {`g b` x nlf xop ig' Glgb a`s l`g gp {lgb}lg gl {gl {gb gbsp lè x glgb {g {` {fgb dlsxn gbg lgb'

Dls xn ~g |s{ Nl ~ N]@ Nl ~ ~g |s{ ngb gbl`} Nl ~ b` nlgb dlfg

^ ~sp {lf` x b` n {` ~g {gb }l} }lgb afgb agb{lgb af {n dlgb lfgb gbg lgb x dlgb lfgb{`g {

Dls xn {` nlgl ngb [g kgb gbg lgb {sgb gb nlf dls

xn ngb&BK] Ng ` gbg ~nl&BK] [`s kgb no nlgl }l&BK] [g kgb gb nlf dls xn ngb&BK]

[le l{ gbg ~nl ig n {l ie {` { ng ng {`dlfg xgb io` ns` ngb n {l bp ~n } ` x { b`

D`gl { {fg ns

B` ks {l b` [ b` {ln no gb io&Pg Gl{ I` ~s{ {ln E [ i{gb {gb d`gl { no E

^ ~sp {lf` d`gl { ag gbf` n {lgl lgb x df

{lcf ~sp {lf` nn gg d`gl { g` o' B` ks {l b` en nof {f o e` gbsp lè ` x {` dlfg xgb io`x ngb n {l kg g ~sp {lf` {fgb gn' I` ~s{nof {g {l{gb {l b`` {lgb {ln p isgb xg o'` x gl`s gn gb ~ e{ b` no gb Pg ~fx` gb io E n {l bp ~n } nlf nn gb {`gag { dln'

Gbsg: OKA 1==3) Nn n nlngl af ~e dlgb lfgb {` nlgl} kgb nlf dls xn gb


33/94

1;

Ls l{ nn nl ~n ip {lcf {lgb glgb n e{ ~ nl ~n n {lcf

qs x ge' X glgb nl ~ gp ~ i`s {lcf {lgb n g` ~sp { nn ~ i`s {lcf

qs lfn {lcf ge'

?'1'1'>' n igb |n ~s{ dlgb lfgbôs dl` |n gl n {l bòg |p o {gl lsgb dlgb lfgb gbg lgb x

io nlg nn nl ~ ngl af bò` fg {`} {lcf no e lgl i o o glgb k

fg x |n ~s{ dlgb lfgb ` x {gb qsn bò {fgb {gb {l d'

`' [lcf }lgb }l} {loe ~

Gbl`g ns no Doe`~dp x Qc`golo{ ,?000) o o nnl {`} ng xg

gp {lcf {g l`s lop nlgl i }lgb }l} }l` {loe ~' B` {l`{ n ag no nnl {`}

ng {g l`s i gg d`gl { }lg gb dln glos x ~ d`g dlgb lfgb {` nlgl g`

nlsgb x dlgb lfgb gbg lgb g` `gb' E{ {g l`s ngl af }l{ o dl` b` {

no nn nl ~x{ o dl` glgb k`g a`g agl {lgb no g' E{ nl ~o o e{

{g l`s x n b` i {g l`s {{ gs dlgb lfgb |p o ~os {fgb e{ dlfgb

{l bòg l} i' Gs ~os e{ {g l`s e dlgb n dlgb lfgb {fgb e{ {l bòg

gl{ gl g n b` i {g l`s ~o` lfn gl`s' Nn nl ~ {{ ,|s) i glgb nl~ n { i {l} ,nof) no l ~ gl`s {g l`s'

Nnl {`} ng {lcf {g l`s {e dè e{ gbgb {` s nlf e` nl ~ {` o

lo dlggb k af no nl ~' X nnl {`} ng {lcf {g l`s |n ~s{ no e{

nsn dlgb lfgb n |n gl agb agl qsg bò qspg no nn nl ~x{ qs

en gbgb {` s {fgb dl` { {gb i dlggb k af {fgb qs dl no nn nl ~'

Nn bò` fg no dlggb |p o dlgb lfgb nof i glgb bò` fg e gl`s nl

~x{ qso en gbgb {` s' X k gs ?1 {fgb ~ 13 nl ~ }l{ {g l`s {` e{

gn O {n i nn nl ~gp x{ g en gbgb gbn i` ?< nl ~ }l{ {g

l`s nlf gn A nlgb {o n {l d{ isg gb gn A n gl`s dlggb |p o dlgb

lfgb lg gn O ,b` {l`{ gb nn nl ~ }l{ {g l`s ` x` gn A n en {`g

np gl gn O)' [gb { gs n gl`s nl ~ }l{ {g l`s {fgb {l bòg ns` ge


34/94

13

?003 ~f x ns` ge ?00> gn O {l nlgb {o d{ isg gb ge ?003 i {l b`og

n dlggb |p o dlgb lfgb nof lg'

``' [lcf }lgb }l} }l` {loe ~

]lgb }l} gp ~ kgb nn e lgl l` qsp x a`g }l {lsn i n

]fa`{ lfn Ifb`{'

E lgl ]fa`{ n |s{ a` Bfikacbc ,?08;) x b` {l`{ gb: P ~

glg b` { ? lfn = {p {lsn xf {lo kgb @ n |n gl a nn a`g n i}'

{lo kgb ngb ig {l |n ~s{ P5? ngb ig:

@ 5 ?$ 1\1` ,?)

B` ~ gb {g {` e{ en b` lg @*: P5? gs @ 7 @* x P5= gs @ 9 @*

@*dlgb qsog ~{ n {o b` {l`{ gb @* 5 @ $ s lop:

@`*5 ?$ 1\1` $ s`

B` ~ gb s n }lg aG,=?)' Dl` {o n {ln igb n ,?):

]` 5 ],P5? y \1`) 5 ],@`* 9 @` ) 5 H,@`)

[fgb H i le }lg a |n ~s{ {nl ip no s' X s` }lg a nlsg lo

gg:

H,@`5 ?$ 1\1`) 5 E lgl a ~sgb nlf }fa`{ i e lgl ifb`{ e lgl gp b`gl H,|`{ ) i

le }lg }l` kgb ifb n |n ~s{ ip d d l`s i ,|`{) {lcf :

,|{) 5 [fgb {fg a nn g` ksgb gbl`g ns {`} {lcf {` ~ nl ~ kgb e lgl

]fa`{ {fgb x`n {ln l`g n igb |n ~s{ dlgb lfgb agb }lgb }l} {loe

~'


35/94

18

?'1'>' E lgl ngl af ~e dlgb lfgb l {lgb gbg lgb {` s x` }lgb }l} |n gl {l bòg |p o dlgb lfgb }lgb}l}

ko {g ~d`g { k kgb {e dè {lgb {`g x ~ nog {l`} no nlgl }l x glgb

{lop ` {fgb qsp gl no nn gbg lgb glgb glDà`{n`fbis ,1==1)?; nl o

}lgb }l} gp n glgb lg nl ~os:

% \n gl {l` è |p o dlgb lfgb i n {l` x nn ~ i`s {lcf {g

~s{ ge glgb i` dl dlg ` x ~ i`s {lgb4

% [l bòg nog {l`} no nlgl }l {lgb n kgb |n gl {l bòg

dlgb lfgb n {l dlgb {ln ~ }lg gl gb {ln {4

%

Dlgb }l` isg isg k }lg qsp{ gb e{ nsn dlgb lfgb i n {gl l

{lgb lop dlgb n a`{ gs gb {o nl kgb {lgb {`g x ~ nog {l`} no

nlgl }l4

% Glg nlsgb x`n ~ kgb nn ge dlgb lfgb a lg nl` x glgb e

lgl a b` lg a`g }l {lsn ,ifb`{ }fa`{)' Kf e lgl {lgb n

~ kgb nlf n ns o qsn bò {gb ~igb dlgb lfgb n |ce |{4

%

` x glgb gl gbl`g ns n glg dlgb kkgb {e dè {lgb {`g xglgb dl dlg no dls xn gbg lgb {g {l b`'

Gbn i`}lgb }l} ko {g nl~nsgb n} e{ ngb n dè ~f{ x

b`` {lnl ~ }l{ {`g igl xn gbg lgb {lcf ~ i`s {lgb' Ko {g nn en

no nn nl ~ gb {o n {l|n gl nn {`s nl }lg a`{ ~ dln glos bò nn

nsn dlgb lfgb n {gl l {lgb x dlgb n {gl l {lgb' Gbf` o nl ~ A^H

{lcf {lgb ng n {l k kgb ~ kgb o o ngl af dlgb lfgb ` x {gb

qsn bò `gb i'

Nn lg nl no }lgb }l} gp nl ps i`g qsog g xg ~ i`s' Nn ~

i`s {`g np no dls xn gbg lgb dlgb }l` in gf ngb ~g n' ^ i`s n n n

?; Opds{ Dà`{n`fbis 1==1' C|nc~~`xc Q`~d% [od`gb Aogd`gb ^cn{f Hobì`{p ogk Aogd`gb N`~c~)9l{{}:&&rrr'as~`gc~~'s`sn'cks&Rfd`gbV]o}c~&}o}c~&=1=??;'}kh7 |ce gbp ?=&=1&1=?1'
http://www.business.uiuc.edu/Working_Papers/papers/02%E2%88%920114.pdfhttp://www.business.uiuc.edu/Working_Papers/papers/02%E2%88%920114.pdfhttp://www.business.uiuc.edu/Working_Papers/papers/02%E2%88%920114.pdf


36/94

12

{l {l i` a ~o` inl kf nn xg x af nf lop kf glgb qsp gl n {l no e`

qsn bò'

X glgb s {lg {` no }lgb }l} nl~~f x` }lgb }l} ~d`g

}lgb }l} nl~{lgb qso x`n |p kgb nl~A^H gl igb {gl xno l

{lgb gbg lgb n io nlg |n gl nn bò` fg dlgb lfgb'

x x`n n igb |n ~s{ |p o dlgb lfgb gbg lgb}lgb }l}

}l` {loe ~o o ngl af dlgb lfgb ko {g x`n }l{ {g l`s ngl af no nn

nl ~x{ qso en gbgb qsp gl' [ e lgl nlf }l} d{ isg glgb nl ~

{{ gl{ ngl af dlgb lfgb ` x {gb qsn bò {fgb {gb bò` fg' [sp xp

lg nl no nnl {`} ng gp i x`n e }lgb {l ~gl lgb no nn nl ~`x |n ~s{ |p o dlgb lfgb' G` nnl dln nnl {`} ng {g l`s dlgb {lo

o nlgl |n |n ~s{ |p o dlgb lfgb gbg lgb' Lg nl gp no }lgb }l}

}l` {loe ~nlgl i s {l g` a{ no }lgb }l} {loe ~' Nnl {`} ng l` qsp

e {fgb gbl`g ns gp i e lgl ]fa`{ n {l {gl {fg nlgl |n |n ~s{ x {l

bòg |p o dlgb lfgb gbg lgb'

Gbf` o {fgb d{ qs {ln gblè gbl`g ns no Bfik~{c`g Doe`~dp x

Qc`glo{ ,1===) }lgb }l} {`} ng {lcf {g l`s dlgb lf{ gb {{ ` x

ngl af dlgb lfgb gbg lgb' [fgb ~3 gn n |n gl i n dlggb a{

g gl{ nl n 1 gn n dlgb lfgb {fgb bò` fg gbf` es gbl`g ns' X

{fgb 3 gn n |n gl i n dlggb a{ g {l} gl{ {l dlgb n gn gf {ln

~ n dlgb lfgb' [le xf gbl`g ns noJszlfgb Zlsogb?3 x dlgb lfgb

{` nlgl nls {` 8 qsn bò gb ngb o o d{ isg gb e lgl }l` {loe

~o o ngl af x dlgb lfgb {`g { {{ lg dlgb lfgb gbg lgb'

Nlgl x xp) }lgb }l} {loe ~ e n {li e lgl ]fa`{) n io nlg

n igb |n ~s{ |p o dlgb lfgb l {lgb GL[E'

?3 OKA 1==3 Nn n nl ngl af ~e dlgb lfgb {` nlgl} kgb nlf dls xn gb '


37/94

1?

[lao gbsg xg s { b`g {`} ,H@@) no g n ~f nl`s d {

s ge 1==< ,A`s 1)' Gs gl {fgb ge 1==2 gbsg xg s { b`g {`} xf

g { 1='> {S^K {l ~ogb ge 1==&1=?1

%1====

%?3===

%?====

%3===

=

3===

?====

?3===1====

13===

H@@
http://www.sebi.gov.in/Index.jsp?contentDisp=FIITrendshttp://www.sebi.gov.in/Index.jsp?contentDisp=FIITrends


41/94

>1

1'?'1'?' \n gl nn bò` fg |p o dlgb lfgb gbg lgb {`g agb}lgb }l} nl~

[fgb gbl`g ns no egl [logbjoe } kgb }lgb }l} |p kgb nl

~ xgbgl gbg lgb gl n {gl ap {fgb gbl`g ns no Dà`{n`fsbis

,1==1) {sp gl`g n e{ ~`s nlgl gl{ gl'

[n b` glg gl nn GL[E no g }l` ` e{ x > if` ` f ig gl{

aof be ` f {logl dlfg ` f {g kgb x ` f { b`' [ nl ~ A^H {lcf

{lgb nlf gbgl gbg lgb g n |p kgb x nn a`g ~ i {gb {`g

b`4 {g kgb nlf nn gbgl }l` {ln }le1=4 s { xf nn nlgb dlfg dlgb n {

i {logl dlfg a{ asn ,gfg%ÎQ) x nn nlgb dlfg dln n gè p{1?4 {` ~gx gagb gbf` {4 x k { gbf` l` gb no nn GL[E {` g '

=1 ngb {ln nlf nl ~A^H n |p kgb gl ~os:

[fgb :

Kc}{: [lop {gb {`g b {lcf ge {` {lgb { ,#)4

Nck{: [lop {g kgb nlf nn gbgl }l` {ln }le {lcf ge {` {lgb {

,#)4

@gx{: [lop ` s { xf nn nlgb dlfg dln n gè p{ x nlgb dlfgdlgb ps ns { i {logl dlfg a{ asn ,gfg%ÎQ) {lcf ge {` {lgb { ,#)4

HNO{: [lop {` ~g agb gbf` {{lcf ge {` {lgb { ,#)4

1= [g kgb no nn GL[E g nlf nn gbgl }l` {ln }le isg nlè lg 0=# {fgb {gb {g kgb gbglgb1?p i e{ dlfg en s { {fgb en {` ~g no nn GL[E g


42/94

>>

HNI{: [lop gagb gbf` {{lcf ge {` {lgb { ,#)4

Qc~x{: [lop k{gbf` l gb {lcf ge {` {lgb { ,#)4

: [sgb agl {gb ~{lop {gb a`g{lcf ge {` {gb {lgb ,#)4

: inl nlsg {lop {gb a`g {lcf ge {` {gb {lgb ,#)'

[{ n k i`s x 8 a`g ~ {g n `s nlgl ie }l{ {lcf nl ~ R]@

{gb gb ,ge bn ?00>%0;)' ]lg {e {lop ` {lcf ge ,{n i ~f x ngb {lgb

no ge {n) n } kgb x en nl if` a a{ d ~ a`g ` eogb {gl {l

xx ngb gle glg egl gb glgb dl dlg {fgb l {lgb gbg lgb ~n

o {g l`s a glgb {lop ` {fgb k` lg dlgb }l` a`g gb {lop gbg lg'

Nl ~ A^H%1 n |p kgb |ce |{ g x`n i`s ~ { xg { {fgb l{lgb gbg lgb g` o {` g n gb a{ d e{ xo` { qsog {gb gf {fgb

~s{ bò` fg ps de no l {lgb gbg lgb {` qsn bò gp lop dlgb'

X`n |n gl bò` fg |p o dlgb lfgb n ko xf e{ en gbgb

gl{ gl' [lcf :

A^H 7 =: Bò` fg dlgb n dlgb lfgb4

A^H 9 =: Bò` fg |p o x'Ko xf en gbgb nn bò` fg |p o xen {sgb agl x nof

n |n gl gl ~os:

xen {sgb agl ,EH): % A^H =

xen nof ,LH): A^H %[fgb : i inl nlsg no nn nl ~ A^H

[n b`|n gl e{ nsn dlgb lfgb l {lgb gbg lgb |p o dl` g nlogl`s }lo |cg d glos }lg gl xen {sgb agl x nof' Glgb }lo EH x LH

{nl a`{ glos ~dlgb n |ce |{ gl i dlgb lfgb l {lgb gbg lgb' L

{lgb gbg lgb n |ce |{ i lfg {fg }ln l` { dlgb lfgb dl` b` { no

nl ~ A^H qsop x en ='


43/94

>;

Lgl 1: Nl ~ xgbgl gbg lgb ,A^H) nlf g ,>&1===%??&1==0)

Gbsg: [logbjoe Qojc~lro ^`gbl) Fkcck ]fa`{ efkci fh Coip Rog`gb ^p~{ce

hfq ]qck`gb H`gognòi Nq`~`~ `g @gkò {ogb ??'

Lgl 1 a`s k`g nn nl ~ A^H nlf gbgl gbg lgb g {fgb bò` fg {

{lgb > ge 1=== g {lgb ?? ge 1==0' Bò` fg |p o xen nof n

a`s k`g agb glgb dls xn es bl`' [ a`s {o n {l {lp lo` nl ~ A^H%? xA^H%1 n ~ a`g gb ngb nl`s x { {gb gb' [ {n b` }lg gf d{

isg gb ~ { xg { dl` l {lgb gbg lgb dlgb {n gb qs gl`s g x`n

bp o ngb {lgb {fgb l {lgb gbg lgb {` g ' `s gp n {ln b`` {lnl

i glxf n nl af lè {`g b` no g ' B` { en gbgb n |n gl nlf

nl ~ A^H%? i A^H%1 ig i{ i =;> x =>0'

Nl ~A^H n |p kgb nl o gb gbgl gbg lgb g {` qso

?0 bò` fg ,}lo) xen {sgb agl x < bò` fg xen nof {fgb ~s{

dlfgb {l bòg gbl`g ns' [{ nnn bò` fg {g n {l l`g {` Agb 1'

Ko xf {l bòg |p o nn bò` fg x {n b` |n gl n dlgb lfgb l

{lgb {` g {fgb nn dlfgb {l bòg ~os:


44/94

>3

[lgb >&1===[lgb ?=&1===

[lgb ?1&1==?[lgb 8&1==?

[lgb &1====2&1====&1==1% =;&1==1 %%%%%%%%%

=8&1==1 %%%%%%%%% =8&1==1 %%%%%%%%%

=0&1==1=;&1==> =3&1==>=1&1==;= =3&1==>

=8&1==> =2&1==>=1&1==;=>&1==;=;&1==; =3&1==;=0&1==; =>&1==;=;&1==; =3&1==;=2&1==;?=&1==;?1&1==; %%%%%%%%% =&1==3=3&1==3 %%%%%%%%% %%%%%%%%% %%%%%%%%%=?&1==8=1&1==8 %%%%%%%%% =?&1==8=1&1==8 %%%%%%%%%

?=&1==8 %%%%%%%%% ?=&1==8 %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% %%%%%%%%% ?1&1==8 %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% %%%%%%%%% =;&1==2 %%%%%%%%%=>&1==< %%%%%%%%% =>&1==< %%%%%%%%%=8&1==< =2&1==


45/94

>8

nl {` qso b`o` fg dlgb lfgb eogb {gl l {lgb { {lgb 8 g {lgb ?? ge

1==&k { gbf` l`4 l ~

glg nsgb {`g E>4 ~g igb s o no gg d`gl {4 i` ~s{ noii efgcp4 i ~s{ {ln

[%a`ii 0? gbp4 nl ~ b` nlgb dlfg x ie }l{'


46/94

>2

1'?'1'>' n igb |n ~s{ |p o dlgb lfgb gbg lgb {`g agb}lgb }l} {loe ~

Ko {g nl ~AH^ |n gl nn bò` fg dlgb lfgb gbg lgb no g

{n b`[logbjoe ~ kgb e lgl Fkcck ]fa`{11 kfg glgb bò` fg

dlgb lfgb dln glos no gn gp' [lcf a`g }l {lsn n }lg if` {lgl

nn b` { = ? x 1 {gb gb x {gl {gb dlgb lfgb: dlgb n dlgb lfgb

xen {sgb agl x {gl xnof'

p 5

[fgb x i nn en gbgb no b` {']lgb {gl Fkcck ]fa`{ |s{ }l{ { ngb {ln ~os: p 5 | $ {fgb

|n ~s{ n }lg if` gl ~os:

] ,p5=y| ) 5 H ,|)] ,p5?y| ) 5 H ,|) % H ,|)] ,p51y| ) 5 ? % H ,|)

X P i a`g b` k af dlgb lfgb4 \ i e{ a nn a`g b`` {lnl4 i e{

xcn%{ no {loe ~ {kf n n {gl4 H i ns {n }lg }l` {nl ip {lgb {lgb

e af gb d{ qs no e lgl n kfg isg ge {fgb dlfgb = x ?' E

lgl ~ kgb nl ~ ]~cskfQ1 dè gl en gblo {lgb d'1>

D{ qs no e lgl

11 I e{ kgb no e lgl ]fa`{ {lcf p ~ dlgb nl glg 1 b` { =? e n {l glg gl`s b` { dlnglos'1>\ce {le: [logbjoe Qojc~lro ^`gbl 1==0' Fkcck ]fa`{ efkci fh Coip Rog`gb ^p~{ce hf]ck`n{`gb H`gognòi N`~`~ `g @gkò 9l{{}:&&rrr'a`~'fb&`hn&cxcg{~&3`hnnfgh&~`gbl'}kh7 |ce gbp1=&=1&1=?1'
http://www.bis.org/ifc/events/5ifcconf/singh.pdfhttp://www.bis.org/ifc/events/5ifcconf/singh.pdfhttp://www.bis.org/ifc/events/5ifcconf/singh.pdf


47/94

>: D{ qs e lgl Fkcck ]fa`{ x nn nl ~ nlgl1;

A`g L ~ ^o` ~ nlsg Z%~{o{`~{`n ]fa'

Hfc| Qc~cxc~ %1'11 ='0< %1'18 ='=1>2Hfc| Qc~cxc~ ,%3) >';2 ?'33 1'1; ='=1;0HNO&HNI o{`f ,%8) 32'>? 13'2< 1'1'1 ='=181C|}f{,%1) %=';2 ='11 %1'=< ='=>2>C|}f{,%;) %='12 ='?? %1'>0 ='=?2=@e}f{,%;) ='?3 ='=2 1'>= ='=1?>E>&Hfc| Qc~cxc o{`f %>1'== ?;'>; %1'1> ='=138E>%Esi{`}i`c 81' 10'=0 1'?8 ='=>=2E>%Esi{`}i`c,%?) ?3'>8 2'18 1'?1 ='=>;;Nck`{&Kc}f~`{ o{`f %?;=;'3; 8?2'2= %1'12 ='=1>=Nck`{&Kc}f~`{ o{`f,%1) 2??'33 >?1'?; 1'1< ='=118Fs{}s{,%1) %;'?= ?'2? %1';= ='=?8;Noii Efgcp o{c ?='1> ;'3< 1'1> ='=133Noii Efgcp o{c ,%?) 1'3< ?'>? ?'02 ='=;=8^{fnd ]`nc @gkc|,%?) ='1= ='=0 1'11 ='=18>@ghio{`fg ??'0? 3'>3 1'1> ='=18=@ghio{`fg,%3) %33? 1'>< %1'>? ='=1=2

I`e`{ ]f`g{~

I@E@[%? ,?) %?>0'2>

I@E@[%1 ,1) %?=;'2>

]~cskf Q%~qsoc =' i` ~s{ Noii Efgcp i ~s{

1; Ngb x nn a`g `s nlgl { no g


48/94

>0

{ln ,[%aìi 0? gbp) nl ~ b` nlgb dlfg x ie }l{ ~ n {l kg g {gb gbsp

n x {fgb gbgl gbg lgb {fgb dl` bè { i nsgb {`g E>&k { gbf`

l` ~g igb s o |s{ gl} k { gbf` l` x {g kgb&{gb {`g b` g` o

ngb ~ie {gb dlggb xnof {fgb gbgl gbg lgb g '

E{ è qsog {gb no e lgl i g n {l kfg nsn dlgb lfgb {`

nlgl {fg ns bg p e{ nnl nlgl |n {n 8 {lgb' [le xf {fgb ~s{ bò`

fg n xen nof x {sgb agl |n ~s{ n dlgb lfgb n kfg {fgb

e lgl { {l} x gbn i`'

[e i` n {l {lp x`n |p kgb e lgl ngl af ~e {` g n e{ ~

nl ~os:

% Nnl |p kgb nl ~ xgbgl gbg lgb g no [logbjoe n ? ~

{lop ` ~f x {fgb gbl`g ns aog s no Dà`{n`fsbis ,1==1)' Ngb {ln {gl nl

~A^H n o {le > a`g e` i: [` ~g n agb gbf` {4 s { x k gb

gbf` {' X`n o {le > a`g e` gp }lg gl lg x glgb ` f e l

{lgb gbg lgb g b} }l`' n a`{ ` f { b` dlgb nln }lg gl qso

e` a`g Ggbf` { e dl` ` f { b` |p o lo` a`g dln i [` ~g n gbf` {

x K { gbf` { ngb ~ a`g gb egl' [le xf en gbgb dlgb lfgb

dlgb ng i ='3 e {lop xf i b` { inl nlsg no {{ n nn A^H {lcf {lgb'

[ln {g n lo` en gbgb no A^H%? x A^H%1 s gllg ='3' `s gp

nlf {lp en a`g gb {fgb {gl xno l {lgb GL[E g {l} lg ~f x

en ='3 n o o {fgb gbl`g ns aog s'

% [n b` [logbjoe ~ kgb e lgl Fkcck ]fa`{ x ?1 a`g b`` {lnl

n io nlg e lgl kaf n nlgl |n


49/94

;=

1'1' \p kgb e lgl af ~e dlgb lfgb l {lgb gbg lgb {lgbe` {` Eb`o` fg 1===1=??

1'1'?' Glgb gbspg glg x k`g a`g nlgl no nsn dlgb lfgb {` nlgl{` Eb`o` fg 1==


50/94

;?

Gbp 13&=0&1===&?1&1==# { {lgb 2

g {lgb 0 ge 1==#'

Gl xp bò` fg {lgb =2&1==< g =8&1==0 n bl` glg i bò` fg

dlgb lfgb {e {gb gl{ no nsn dlgb lfgb {` nlgl {` E g` `gb x {fg

ns g` nlsgb' ^ xno { gl`s gbg lgb x {} fg ig en {le l{ gbg

~nl x ngb ig gn E nlgb d`g bò` fg cg {` gl{ {fgb inl ~lg ?==

ge gbgl {` nlgl gbg lgb d { nsn ` ~sp {lf` ?0>='

Ls l{ nn nlspg bò d`gl { {` nlgl lgb s {l b`` s nlf gb gbspg

glg no nsn dlgb lfgb d`gl { {` E g` nlsgb x dls xn gbg lgb g` `gb

a{ gbsg { lf{ gb nlf xop k nlsg i dl` è nlf afgb agb {` {l{gb

gl {' Nn gbg lgb nlf xop ne n a{ gb ~g e dlgb qsog {e { dlggb

nl` { no dlnl lgb' K g{fgb egb gp glp x{ { ?8= {S^K ge 1==? ig

3;= {xf ge 1==; x agb g {lgl ?>== {xf ge 1==2'

[n {gl lgl {g nn gbg lgb ngb {p af lè { nln {` nlglx'x eso i` nn l} gb {l nl} x a`g nlgb {lgl {` ~g e af }l{ lgl {`

}l`s o {l{gb' If` ~g }le }l` ~`gl gp aog s n gl b` nof a nn {

nln gl b` {g kgb' [sp gl`g nlgl ~ bè b` egl no {` ~g {ln nl ps i

a{ gb ~g i bè egl l} kg no glgb ngb n gp' [ bò ge 1==2 nn


51/94

;1

lgb |} lgb {g kgb dlgb gbgb l {l} en |} lgb ` f no egl ` x

glgb ngb n {` nlgl n {` ~g e af' [fgb b`o` fg { qs @@@&1==2 g qs

@@&1==


52/94

;>

A`s >: I` ~s{ HCK bò` fg 1===%1=??

Gbsg:HCK 1=?118'

Gl xp afgb agb a{ gb ~g x dlgb lfgb {fgb dls xn nlf xop {l

nl} k nlsg bò` fg 1==21==< df {lcf dlgb lfgb gblè {gb {fgb

{fg l {lgb gbg lgb E dl` lgb if{ gbg lgb }l` ` e{ x ` f {g

kgb ` f {logl dlfg x ` f { b` isg en nof' Dlgb {l nlgb x

qs gl`s ` f {e {gb ngb } g { gl`s gbg lgb ig x is {` E

` g }l ~g Nlgl }l i`g {n }l` ae {`g ns {glgb {} fg n {e gl

lgb ig gb {l` bò` fg gp ngb bl` glg { gl`s x ~} gl} x {ls {e

ig glos no nn gl nl{` nlgl e n a`{ i nn gbg lgb ig' Glgb ks l`s

af l`s nlf ~ xno l {lgb gbg lgb {lgb e` no E'

igb lo x nlgb e`gl nlf {gl xgp ko {g glgb ~ i`s |n

{ln gle gbl`g ns {`g lgl |p kgb nl ~f igb {gl xgbgl gbg

lgb {` Ebò` fg 1===1=?? {fgb }lg {`} {lcf'

189l{{}:&&rrr'hckcoic~cxc'bfx&cico~c~&l?3&ko{o'l{e7 |ce gbp ?1&=;&1=?1

=

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;

3

8

2

1=== 1==? 1==1 1==> 1==; 1==3 1==8 1==2 1==< 1==0 1=?= 1=??

,#)

HCK hsgk qo{c
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data.htmhttp://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data.htm


53/94

;;

1'1'1'\p kgb e lgl ngl af ~e dlgb lfgb l {lgb gbg lgb{lgb e` {` Ebò` fg 1===%1=??

Ko xf glgb d`gl gblè ~os dl` {e l`s x e lgl ngl af ~e no

gbgl gbg lgb g gle gbl`g ns } kgb qsp {gl |p kgb e lgl

ngl af ~e dlgb lfgb l {lgb gbg lgb {lgb e` Ebò` fg 1===%1=??'

1'1'1'?' \n gl nn bò` fg |p o dlgb lfgb gbg lgb Eagb }lgb}l} nl~

X`n |p kgb nl ~xgbgl gbg lgb ,A^H) nlf En gle gbl`g

ns {ln l`g ko {g d`gl gblè |p kgb nl ~ gp {fgb gbl`g ns no

Dà`{n`fsbis ,1==1) x x`n } kgb nl ~ A^H gp nlf gbgl gbg lgb no g

{fgb gbl`g ns no [logbjoe ,1==0)' [ x`n }lg {nl glgb k`g a`g {fgb dlgb

lfgb gbg lgb no E bò` fg 1== gle ` f nlgl i ` f {logl dlfg ` f {g

kgb x ` f {b`' Kf ngb {ln n gle {n b` |p kgb nlf nl ~ x

gbgl gbg lgb no Ei gl ~os:

[fgb :

Kc}{: [lop ` {gb {`g b` {ln {{lcf ge {` {{ n nn GL[E no E {`

{lgb { ,#)4

Nck{: [lop ` {gb {g kgb {lcf ge no GL[E { dl` nn dlfg nlgb

dlfg nlgl }l {` {lgb { ,#)4

HNI{: [lop ` nn dlfg ggbf` { {lcf ge no {{ n nn GL[E E {`

{lgb { ,#)4

HNO{: [lop ` {gb {` ~g agb gbf` { {lcf ge no nn GL[E E {`

{lgb { ,#)4


54/94

;3

Qc~x{: [lop ` k { gbf` {{lcf ge no nn GL[E E {` {lgb { ,#)4

: B` { {sgb agl no nn a`g ~ {lcf {lgb4

: inl nlsg no nn a`g ~ {lcf {lgb'

dè {o {n gb no x`n { {`g lgb if{ gle {n b`ngb |p kgb nl

~ A^H,S~)1 {gb {gl nl ~ A^H,S~)? glgb if` ` a`g ~ {gb {`g b`

Kc}'

^ i`s x {gb {`g b` {g kgb ggbf` {&n gbf` { no l {lgb GL[E

no En gle {n b` {ls {l} {` gbsg k i`s no Nn k { i`g aogb E

,HCK) {gb l} {fgb nn af nf {lcf {lgb {fgb bò` fg { {lgb =?&1==> g

{lgb ?1&1=??'12 Q`gb ~ i`s x K { gbf` { no nn GL[E En gle {n

b` {ls {l} { _s {`g { _sn { @EH'1< Nn ~ i`s {g n gle {n b``s

nlgl ie }l{ agb x`n ~ kgb nl ~ N]@ no E {ls {l} { gbsg k i`s {` Nn

[lgb d iof gb E ,AI^)' 10

^ a`g gb no nn a`g ~ {fgb ngb {ln A^H no l {lgb GL[E En a`s k`g ig i{ qso nn A`s ;3'

12 HCK 1=?1 l{{}:&&rrr'hckcoic~cxc'bfx&cnfgc~ko{o&~{o{`~{`n~ko{o'l{e|ce gbp 1=&=>&1=?11< @EH 1=?1 l{{}:&&rrr'èh'fb&c|{cgoi&g}&~{o&`&@Q]fnc~~Rca&ko{o&s~o&cgb&nss~o'l{e.@ |ce gbp1=&=>&1=?110 AI^ 1=?1 Nfg~sec ]`nc @gkc| 9l{{}:&&rrr'ai~'bfx&n}`&.{oaic~7 |ce gbp 1=&=>&1=?1'
http://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/statisticsdata.htmhttp://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/statisticsdata.htmhttp://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/ir/IRProcessWeb/data/usa/eng/curusa.htm#Ihttp://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/ir/IRProcessWeb/data/usa/eng/curusa.htm#Ihttp://www.bls.gov/cpi/#tableshttp://www.bls.gov/cpi/#tableshttp://www.bls.gov/cpi/#tableshttp://www.bls.gov/cpi/#tableshttp://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/ir/IRProcessWeb/data/usa/eng/curusa.htm#Ihttp://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/statisticsdata.htm


55/94

;8

A`s ;: [lop ` {gb {g kgb {ln nlf dl xn { glg {gb {`g b {lcf

ge no GL[E E ,1==?%1=??)

Gbsg: [gl {fg no gle gbl`g ns

A`s 3: [lop ` ggbf` { {` ~g gbf` { x k{gbf` {{lcf ge no

l {lgb GL[E E ,1==?%1=??)


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HNQ


56/94

;2

ôs dl` {ls {l} x | i ~ i`s nl ~ xgbgl gbg lgb A^H,S~)%? x

A^H,S~)%1 n {gl {fg x d{ qsn a`s k`g {fgb A`s 8'

A`s 8: Nl ~ xgbgl gbg lgb no Ebò` fg 1==?%1=??


_so a`s {g {o n {l {lp 1 nl ~ A^H,S~)%? x A^H,S~)%1 a`g gb dl

ngb nl`s x {gb gb' B` { en gbgb no A^H,S~)%? x A^H,S~)%1 n |n

gl ig i{ i ? 5 ='3 x 1 5 ='2?>' Ko xf b` {gbgb {g nn bò` fg

|p o dlgb lfgb {lgl n }lg {lgl => en:

% En ps: %{&19 A^H,S~){9 =

% En {sgb agl: % {9 A^H,S~){9 %{&1

% En nof:A^H,S~){7 % {

X`n }lg if` {lgl > en {g nlf }l} glg glg n en gbsp lèno nn bò` fg |p o dlgb lfgb a x n e{ ~bò` fg l {lgb GL[E n

{l n |n gl i |p o dlgb lfgb en ps glgb en gp lfg {fg

dlgb }lg gl p en gblè {gb no dlgb lfgb'

%1

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A^H,S~)%1


57/94

;;

Gbsg: [gb l} no gle gbl`g ns

1'1'1'>' n igb |n ~s{ |p o dlgb lfgb l {lgb gbg lgb {` Eagb}lgb }l} {loe ~

E {}lgb }l}

K` p i e lgl l` qsp gl}lg n }lg {nl:

]TP,8)5?U 5 ,N$ ?AF[ $ 1NK $ >N]@ $ ;KNN $ 3H\QN $ 8IO $ 2

E1N $ &1=?1>; l{{}:&&c~conl'~{ifs`~hck'fb&hck1&ko{o&G][I[I'{|{ |ce gbp 13&=>&1=?1
http://www.econstats.com/eqty/eqem_mi_1.htmhttp://www.econstats.com/eqty/eqem_mi_1.htmhttp://www.econstats.com/eqty/eqem_mi_1.htmhttp://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/NPTLTL.txthttp://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/NPTLTL.txthttp://www.econstats.com/eqty/eqem_mi_1.htm


61/94

31

D{ qs e lgl

Agb 2 k` p {gl ap d{ qs no }lg {nl l` qsp gl }lg e lgl

]fa`{' ]lg {nl n ko {g e lgl b`g g ,e lgl ?) % e` gle nl ~ nl

nlg ? nl ~ {`s a`s e lgl p ,e lgl 1)p nn a`g n gs o x

e lgl ~os dl` if` a 1 a`g i [A@II x NK x l ~{gb qsog no 1 a`g gp

x nn a`g dln {gb ` nof'

[Agb 2 n {l {lp gb x`n if` ` e{ ~ nl ~ en k xg e af ~

n e{ no e` gle nl ~ ~ ie b`e nlgl |n no e lgl kf EnHokkcg Q1

b`e {lcf x nn a`g {l dlgb { n en {lgb d n gblo' Dl` |{ p nn

a`g {l EnHokkcg Q1 { en


62/94

3>

Agb 2: D{ qs e lgl ]fa`{ ngl af ~e dlgb lfgb l {lgb gbg lgb

{` E ,1===%1=??)

E lgl ?B`g g

E lgl 1p

E lgl >`s nlgl

N %='8>=>11,='>180)

18'>=3?=,='?=>1)

%?;'?>8>?*

,='=3?8)%?883'2?2**

,='=1=?)

N]@ %%%%%%%%%%% %>>'30110,='1


63/94

3;

ôs dl` { a`g NK x [A@II o dl` e lgl 1 {l EnHokkcg Q1 bè |sgb

e lgl e` dlgb l`s qs agb e lgl n { d{ isg {e {l` n o o gb

1 a`g nlf xop&{`g b` ,NK) x i` ~s{ {g }l`s > {lgb ,[A@II) ngb i 1 a`g qsog

{gb {` x`n k af dlgb lfgb'

[n gb no nn a`g ` x x`n {gb&bè |n ~s{ |p o dlgb lfgb gbg

lgb n {gb l} {fgb Agb


64/94

33

]TP,8)5?U 5,18'>=3=0023 % 1080'>>?;08*,%='==;=3?)%>>'3011*='=130?;$='3?288=0*QAN % ='=2802?>==>11>0*[A@II %

>0'2' X`n {le a`g G]I n` {l`g b` { EnHokkcg Q1

no e lgl {20# ig lg


65/94

38

='3' [sp gl`g {fgb {gb l} no g en gbgb |p o dlgb lfgb n

io nlg agb inl nlsg no {{ n nn b` { A^H {fgb es' [ln { nlf {lp

en gbgb gp no e` gn ~f x en ='3 i dln glos' N {lg n lo`

en gbgb no A^H%? x A^H%1 s gllg ='3'Gbn i` E 1 en gbgb

s ig lg ='3' Gl xp n {l {lp e` qsn b`o en a`g gb {fgb {gl g

gl no l {lgb GL[E i dlgb b`gb glos' Kf gg nlg en gbgb i

inl nlsg no nn b` {A^H n {l }lg gl gb lg {ln {gb }l{ {`g x ~

g gl no l {lgb GL[E no qsn b`o ogb |ce |{'

1'>'>' X`n ~kgb e lgl ]fa`{ n igb |n ~s{ dlgb lfgb }l{lsp {n kgb

X`n |p kgb e lgl ]fa`{ n igb |n ~s{ dlgb lfgb l {lgb gbg

lgb g x E nlf {lp e lgl gp n {llf{ gb {{ {fgb x`n k af

dlgb lfgb gbg lgb' X no ~ ngl af i 8 {lgb n1 e lgl s { en

gblo {lgb d {g 3' [lcf 3 nl ~ k af {{ gl{ `

x e lgl dlgb lfgb gbg lgb i { i {gb {` ~g ggbf` { no dls xn gbg

lgb&{gb {` ~g n gbf` { k { gbf` { {gl {lcf {lgb gl} dls i` ~s{ {ln

no E { i ggn gbf` gbg lg&k { gbf` { x { i{lop ` i` ~s{ {ln no

gb g` { {fgb xgb ?1 {lgb'

>3OKA 1==3' Nn n nlngl af ~e dlgb lfgb {` nlgl} kgb nlf dls xn gb {ogb 82'


66/94

32

NLGB @@@' B@@ ]L] \P KGB E LGL NGL AF Ê DLGB

LFGB L [LGB GBG LGB [LGB E@ [@ X@[ GOE KO

[QG D@GL GBL@E [L B@@

>'?' [ln {gb |p kgb e lgl ngl af ~e dlgb lfgb l {lgb gbglgb {lgb {` X`{ Goe

>'?'?' [ln {gb l {lgb gbg lgb {lgb e` X`{ Goe[fgb glgb ge 0= no {l d {n l {lgb gbg lgb X`{ Goe ng dl

dl} dg x a nl` }l` a nn gbg lgb {lsn dls xn gl gn x '8&2 è {fgb nl ~g gl l {lgb gbg lgb { ;'>

è ,|ce Agb 0)'


67/94

3'=

g gl {` nlgl 3> >'8

g gl {`g { ;> >'>

g gl l {lgb gbg lgb >8 >';

Q` f dlgb lfgb gqsn b`o 31 1'8

[llo` en dlgb e`gl anl {fgb l {lgb gbg lgb no gn {o ng

{ nof' [ln xp l`g { dl n {lgl b` p x {gl lgl {` ~g no dls xn

gbg lgb X`{ Goe kf {l`s {lgb {`g x nn nl ~nlf }l} }lg {nl n ` f l

{lgb gl: en xg lo nl{ igb {` ~g n k }lgb {logl dlfg ng agb

{gb d{ {` ~g agb gbf` { { ~s{ ~`gl i' X`n {l`s {lgb {`g nln nlg x en

xg lo x nl{ igb {` ~g l`g i e{ {gb` nlf x`n {`g lgl gl b` {gl

lgl e{ nnl p kf lo` ps {}lg {nl {g nlf }l} gl b` n {gl lglngb {lgb n {l |p o ` x l {lgb gbg lgb no nn gn e g`'

[lcf { nln |} lgb {g kgb^{ogkoqk ogk ]ffq~ ,^(]) {l nn {`s nlsg

x dlsgb nlgl ~nl no X`{ Goe ng {l`s nn {`s nlsg qsn { x GL[R k a

{g {lgb {fgb nlgl nn {lo {lsg no egl' X`n ls l{ nn gbg lgb dlgb

ngb a af nf {` nlgl d} {l` x {lgb dlgb p nl` {`{ {n gb {`s

nn g x`n `s lgl x e`gl anl lo {lgb {`g {fgb l {lgb gbg lgb gn

{o'>2

>8gb kg: 9l{{}:&&rrr>'rchfse'fb&kfn~&RCHVH`gogn`oiKcxcif}ecg{Qc}f{V1=??'}kh7 |ce gbp>?&=>&1=?1'>2 K`g g d`gl { X`{ Goe ?=&??&1=??' ^(]: L {lgb gbg lgb X`{ Goe n {gl ` f nof gl{gb kg: 9l{{}:&&xch'xg&1=??%??%?=%~%ogk%}%lc%{lfgb%gbog%logb%xg%nf%s`%f%nof%glo{7' T[sp n} gbp:=?&=;&1=?1U
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68/94

30

[lao x`n bè ~{ x qsg i no GL[R ng an i gl`s è {l`s ~{'

L`g gop a ep bè ~{ {` nlgl no gn {o lf{ gb ko {g e lgl }lg {g

{g n ~ {l nl' [lcf GLGG ~ n nln ggb bè ~{ lf{ gb no nn {

nln {g kgb' [gbp >=&=2&1==0 GLGG nlgl {ln ngb a qsp{ gl {lgl

i} n qsog {logl {o bè ~{ gbg lgb {n {lsn GLGG {gb ngb dlggb

bè ~{ nn GL[E no egl' [sp gl`g lf{ gb bè ~{ no GLGG xg ng {

gl`s lg nl n x dls bè ~{ { |o x bè ~{ {` nl' D{ qs i GLGG xg

dlgb {l qsg i nl{ nln lf{ gb n} {g kgb x s { no e{ ~ GL[E'

E{ }lg i kf no xg gp nlgl i ngb gbl {ls {l} {lgb {`g nlf x`n bè

~{ { |o ng { in ls'

[lcf Af nf x }l{ {`g {` nlgl no K`g g d`gl { [l b` ,RCH)

{l nl ~ x nl{ nl no {`s nlsg dè {fg d{fg no gn {o |} lgb {l

30&8= x nl{g Sdo`gc' Gl xp n {l {lp nlgl glgb lg nl {fgb dlsgb }l}

i ngb gbl x {`s nlsg og {fg lf{ gb dl`g nlf x`n qsg i x bè ~{

no GLGG ` x lf{ gb no nn GL[E {gg de l`s qsx dlgb glp

ag'

[l {) l {lgb af lè {`g b lf{ gb nlo {ln ~l`s qs' Dlgb

{l }l glg gb AL[B i e{ ngb n ng {l`{ x l`s qs {fgb x`n lg nl

glgb ` f nlf ngb b` {`g x nn GL[E gb {l ie bè {l`s en

gblè {gb no e{ nsn dlgb lfgb gbg lgb eogb {gl l {lgb' [sp gl`g

l`g gop n gl`s d`g nlf gb en AL[B gn {o ng qs {l}' N {l en

AL[B {` o nl kgb 3= {`s gb ,{gb gb dlfgb +1'3==) nlf e` n glg

b` {`g' Gs ~f ~gl x en af lè e{ qsn bò ngb dls xn gl ]lì`}}`gc~

{l en af lè gp nl bg agb ?&3 ,en af lè no ]lìi`}`gc~ i 3=='=== ]c~f

{gb gb x` +?1'===)' [le xf en {gl }l af lè gb lgb =?3# {g

{gb ~k {`g b` {lcf qsp gl l`g gop nlo {ln ~ l} i x dlgb }lg a`{ qsp

e lgl {ln ~ls ngb gl en ` f no { nln {g kgb {loe bò af lè'


69/94

8=

Ag ngl o x }l} i no n qsog AL[B gn {o l`g gop ,K@X) xg ng

{l} x gn {o nlo aog lgl Is{ AL[B' gb {l` ggb in {` nlgl no K@X xg

ng { lg nl' [le xf lf{ gb bè ~{ lf{ gb no K@X ngb ng b}

gl`s dl dlg ngb {le glg {ln nlo nof no gb b` {`g x xo` { no AL[B

gg bp o gl`s {gb` {fgb l {lgb AL[B gn {o'

>'?'1' [ln {gb |p kgb e lgl ngl af ~e dlgb lfgb l {lgb gbglgb {lgb e` X`{ Goe

[fgb }le x` gbl`g ns {` nlf gb {ln {X`{ Goe nlo n a{ d

e lgl ngl af ~e dlgb lfgb gbg lgb gf n } kgb e{ nnl nlgl {ln

x ngb nlo n n qsog { nln gf nls {nl glè {fgb x`n gbl`g ns x |pkgb e lgl ngl af ~e dlgb lfgb gbg lgb } kgb nlf gn {o'

X}lo nn n glg gbl`g ns: [sp e{ ~ ngb {gl gbl`g ns {fgb gn

{gb n} g e lgl ngl ~e gl a` gl b`) kaf x nn a`g }l}

}lgb gbo dlgb lfgb {`g { x l {lgb gbg lgb no gle X [l Dè

[logl ngb a {fgb k`g g D`gl { x [` nlgl l} ig {l2 ge 1==


70/94

8?

{fg qsn { no X`{ Goe' Gl xp glè x k af no X xg nlo aof be nn

k`g a`g {fgb lf{ gb gbg lgb e n {l i dlgb lfgb l {lgb GL[E'

>'1' ^ ng {l`{ |p kgb e lgl ngl af ~e dlgb lfgb l {lgbgbg lgb {lgb e` {` X`{ Goe

gn {o l`g gop xg nlo nlgl {ln |p kgb n e{ l ngl af ~e

dlgb lfgb nlf gg d`gl { g` nlsgb x gbgl gbg lgb g` `gb' n a`{ x

n è no e{ gg d`gl {ogb }l{ {`g a nls gl`s {n gb a nn ps {

qsn { x`n |p kgb e{ e lgl ngl af ~e dlgb lfgb n a`{ i dlgb

lfgb l {lgb gbg lgb nlf X`{ Goe i { n} {l`{ a lo` i kf:

E{ i ~ a{ g no n l {lgb gbg lgb ~ bp o {g {l{ { ig nlf nn

gn |p o dlgb lfgb ngb gl nn gn agl lgb i`g ' D {ge ?02=

n lg ?== nsn dlgb lfgb gbg lgb |p o 0> gn ,No}`f x Lfgflog

1==?)' E{ go {fgb ~ |p o nn gn ogb }l{ {`g nl` }l { dls xn ngb

b`` qsp{ dlgb lfgb ig g ?=# lfn nof lg ~f x BK] no nn qsn bò

nls dlgb lfgb' X`{ Goe l`g gop {sp nlo |p o e{ nsn dlgb lfgb gbg

lgb nlgl {ln glgb x`n isg }l` ` e{ x gl`s ` f dl`g l {lgb

GL[E gn {o isg {fgb {gb {l` dlgb og {fg x xg {` ns {n {fg a

l {lgb {gg { gb qsog {e'

Lo` i gs nlng n xf glgb nl ~ nl ~ {l{gb {spg {lgb x {`g {

x glgb ` f en gl {lgb ~dlgb o o n gl`s {g l`s af {n x e{

nsn dlgb lfgb {è g' n a`{ x`n k af glgb ps de {gb gbg lgb {`

nn gg d`gl { e g` ngb n glgb lg nl kf {gl nl{ nlo lfg {l`g no nn

nlsg en d {fg x l {lgb af nf x`n }lg if` nn dlfg g |s ,G]I~)dlgb nl{ nl nn qsp gl dlgb l} i x nn dlfg k }lgb {g kgb nn lf{

gb bè ~{ {lcf is{ dlgb n {ln {l` l`s qs {l {gb xg dlgb n {gl

{logl dlfg x }l{ {`g {l ~ { dl dlg {fgb x`n |n gl b` { no gbg lgb

gle {nl a`{ x b` { {lcf ~ ~nl'


71/94


72/94

8>

{lgb GL[E gn {o ogb }l` ` e{ i { qsog {gb' Glg nlsgb l {lgb

GL[E gn {o ogb }l` ` e{ x =; if` ` f nlgl ~os p:

`' Q` f {logl dlfg

N {l g` l {lgb gbg lgb X`{ Goe isg ` k`g x ` f {logl dlfg

n a`{ {fgb ge 1=?? x en gblè {gb x df k` dl`g nn en i` ~s{

isg en nof gl{ {fgb dls xn' Nlf g ns` {lgb < ge 1=?? i` ~s{ nlf xop

{sgb agl d lg ? ge no X`{ Goe nof b} > ig en i` ~s{ {gb gb no [sgb

_sn x nn gn O^COG ,gbf` { @gkfgc~ò) ,A`s 2)'

A`s 2: I` ~s{ lsp gb no X`{ Goe x e{ ~gn {fgb dls xn

Gbsg: @g{cgo{`fgoi H`gognòi ^{o{`~{`n~ 1=?1>??(k5>>?1=(c5?2=?&1=?1'

='=1'=

;'=

8'=


73/94

8;

A`s ?33#

1&=;&1=?1'

=

3=

?==

?3=

1==

13=

>==

Nlf xop& [`g b`

Nlf xop& [` ~g

Nlf xop& BK]
http://www.vietnam-report.com/wp-content/uploads/downloads/2012/02/B-VN-Banking-Q4-2011.pdfhttp://www.vietnam-report.com/wp-content/uploads/downloads/2012/02/B-VN-Banking-Q4-2011.pdf


74/94

83

Kf gl lgb no x`n {gb {gb {g kgb nof g |s isg i e{ {fgb

glgb xg g` ne no gbgl gbg lgb X`{ Goe {{n {` gop {fgb n

lo` xg nlgl ng nl :

[lgl{ ~ dln a`{ {fgb }lg if` g{lcf nlsg X`{ Goe ,XO^) x nlsg

qsn { ,@O^):

Ls l{ nn GL[E {` X`{ Goe l`g gop s }lg if` gko xf gl igb

e {l`s ` }lg gl {gl gl {gl lgl {` nlgl d{ qs ~g |s{ d`gl kfogl no

kfogl gbl`}' `s gp kg g x`n }lg if` gdlgb }lg gl {ln nl{ dlfg g'

Gbf` o e{ ~ gbg lgb X`{ Goe ng a`g gbl`} x bò lg g xg i

e{ gbl`} xagl {lgb no gbg lgb {lgl e{ lgl {ln bè { i g|sno egl kf gbò lg dlgb n {gl xf g|s' Nlgl x xp ~ nlgl inl bò

}lg if` g|s {lcf XO^ x @O^ gbp ngb ig'

[llo` g|s no l {lgb GL[E gn {o ogb bò {gb' X gbspg glg

dlnl qsog kf gl lgb no dlgb lfgb {` nlgl 1===# {gb k gogb `


75/94

88

e{ x` gbsp n ` f f n noflgl x` {l`s {nl glè x nn dlfg xop nl`

}l` {l}'

```' Q` f { b` l` f`

X`n {loe bò nn bòf knl gbf` l` gbp ngb bò {gb { nn GL[E

{n gbsp n ` f { b` kf ~ a`g gb no { b` x kf nn gbg lgb {lgb

|spg dlgb ng agb x {gb {l` gbf` {'

A`s 0: [ ilsp gb xg x {g kgb agb gbf` { {` GL[E X`{ Goe

1==3%1=?=

Gbsg: Af nf no GLGGge 1=?=

[A`s 0 {o n {l glg {lp { {gb no {g kgb x lsp gb xg agb

gbf` {gbp ngb {gb kf ~n gl lgb no a`g gb {b` ngb gbp ngb

ig' [sp X`{ Goe } kgb nl { b` {l g` n `s {`{ x ~ aof an no

GLGG glgb {l bòg qso { b` a`g gb x{ gbf` ~ dè ~f{ dl`g dlgb

{ gbg lgb b} dl dlg'

`x'

Q` f i` ~s{

[lgb 8 ge 1==1 GLGG X`{ Goe nlgl {ln nlspg ~ogb {ln l`g n nl

i` ~s{ {lf {lsg {fgb lf{ gb {g kgb {lgb e` agb gb X`{ Goe no {

nln {g kgb ` x dlnl lgb {f gg nsn nl`g i` ~s{ bò nn gbg lgb

gb {l a`g i` ~s{ {lgl glg { glp ne x a`g gb no {gl lgl d`gl {'


76/94

82

`g lgl i =0 {lgb s ge 1=='1'1' \p kgb nl~xgbgl gbg lgb {` X`{ Goe

[ x`n }lg {nl glgb ` f e l {lgb GL[E no X`{ Goe ogb }l` `

e{ gle gbl`g ns o o |s{ x x`n |p kgb nl ~ xgbgl gbg

lgb {lcf {lgb nlf l {lgb GL[E X`{ Goe gl ~os:

[gb { ngb {ln A^H,Xg)%1 ngb n |p kgb agb x`n if` a` a`g

{gb {`g b`:

[fgb :

Kc}{: [lop ` {gb {`g b` {ln {{lcf ge {` {{ n nn GL[E {` {lgb {

,#)4


77/94

8'>'>'Io nlg nn nl~ngl af` x e{ gg d`gl { ng gfg {gl gn {o ~g gl no gbgl gbg

lgb dlgb nl a nl` }l` a glgb ps {{fgb gn e ng nls ~gl lgb a

glgb {n gb { gg d`gl { {fg ns' X`n io nlg a`g b`` {lnl nlf e lgl ngl

af ~e dlgb lfgb l {lgb gbg lgb {` X`{ Goe n |ce |{ k ; ps {

nlgl ~os:

`' Ng ng {` dlfg xgb io`[fgb bò` fg 1=== %1==?? ng ng |s{ gl} dls no X`{ Goe isg

{gl {gb {le l{' X`{ Goe i gn gl} ~`s {fgb nbò` fg `s gp bp a`g

gb ig {fgb x`n nl` gbf` {x ng ` xg no nn GL[E ng agb x nsgb

ns gbf` { }ln x lf{ gb |s{ gl} dls l {lgb gbg lgb k ` xf {gl

{gb e{ dlggb {logl dlfg gbf` {'

``' Ng ng {` dlfg xgL {lgb GL[E {l`s gbsg gbf` {n igb lo agb ~{gb ig no {

i {` ~g ggbf` {&{` ~g n gbf` {' Gbf` o x`n GLGG asn }l` ag gbf` {

{g {l {gb {`g { nlf nn GL[E e af {logl dlfg bp } in ig `

x k { gbf` l` qsn bò p i gbsg {` ~g qsog {gb ksp { {gl {logl

dlfg nlf {l{gb gbf` l` ngb gl `s {`{ igb nsgb gbf` l` no l {lgb

gbg lgb {lgb e` dl` {g kgb {gb {gb qs ggb'

```'

Dls xn {` nlglNlgl ~nl {`g { i e{ {fgb glgb ngb n {n gb {n {`} x glogl

nlgb { dls xn gbg lgb' GLGG i`g {n `s nlgl {g i` ~s{ lsp gb x nlf

xop ` x GL[E {fgb bò` fg 1=== %1=?? bp gl lgb egl e { {n


80/94

2?

{gb {gb {g kgb no dls xn gbg lgb n n {llo {lgb qso igb nsgb

{`g { E1 {gb {`g b` x { i nlf xop& {`g b` no l {lgb gbg lgb'

[le xf {gb {gb {g kgb qs ggb {fgb dls xn gbg lgb bò` fg

gp ngb o g glgb ` f dlgb gl {fgb nl{ igb {` ~g n no gbg lgb

n }lg gl { g{ qso nl ~ g|s ,G]I~)'

`x' Dls xn ~g |s{Lf{ gb no {lgb GL[E X`{ Goe aof be gl`s gbl`} xi`g qsog g

{l {gb nlgb dlfg gl n af igl }l{ lgl nlgb dlfg { kfogl nlgb

dlfg ,eso ag n }l`s {` }l`s kfogl gbl`}) e` b` nlgb dlfg {lgb

qso nn ngb {p nfg gbl`} x {n {`} n} {g kgb ` x glgb dlfg s { x

d`gl kfogl nlgb dlfg gle o kgb lo kogl en s { no egl x egb i

glsg' X xp glgb a`g gb a{ gbno {l {gb nlgb dlfg lop nlgl i ~

a`g gb no nl ~ b` nlgb dlfg isg i ks l`s nlf {lp glgb ` f dlg

igb ` x gg d`gl { g` `gb x lf{ gb gbg lgb g` nlsgb'

x' Gg d`gl {{fg nsD {ge 1=== g 1=?? {b` kogl gblo S^K&XGK n GLGG ngb a

isg {gb nof {l`s g gl' `s dl`g { b` eso xf x ag o S^K no GL[E

isg a`g gb { egl' gb {l X`{ Goe isg {fgb {gl {gb gl} ~`s nof i

} in { ig p { b` ig nof XGK e{ b` dl egl ~f x` S^K ngb ie bò {gb

} in {fgb x`n e af ng ` xg gbf` { {fgb lf{ gb d`gl kfogl no l

{lgb GL[E'

[le xf b` xgb {fgb gn {gb { egl x gl`s a`g gb {lcf |s

lgb no {l b` { gl`s }l`g bòf knl { gl bp gl lgb ig { dl

ggb lsp gb xg no GL[E'


81/94

21

[ glgb }lg {nl {g ngb x glgb d`gl gblè |p kgb e lgl no g

x E nn nl ~ |p kgb e lgl A^H{loe ~ nlf X`{ Goe n o o

gl ~os:

Agb ?=: Nn nl ~ nlf e lgl ngl af dlgb lfgb l {lgb gbg lgb X`{ Goe

Dls xn d`gl { Nn nl ~ kaf

Ng ng {` dlfg xgb io` Ng ng {lgb e`&BK] [ b` {ln l`s kgb no XGK

Ng ng {` dlfg xg K { gbf` { [` ~g ggbf` {&{` ~g n gbf` { no dls

xn gbg lgb E1&k { gbf` {

Dls xn {` nlgl [g kgb g` o&BK] [ i nlf xop& {gb {`g b` {` nn GL[E [g i` ~s{ lsp gb [ i g|s& {gb nlf xop ,G]I~)

Dls xn ~g |s{ Nl ~ b` nlgb dlfg Nl ~ b` {`s kgb

D`gl { {fg ns [n {gb b` xgb {l b`

Gbsg: [gb l} no gle gbl`g ns

>'>';' n igb |n ~s{ dlgb lfgbKf b} dl dlg {fgb x`n {ls {l} nn ~ i`s x {g ~s{ {lcf {lgb no

nn a`g b`` {lnl e af ~igb qsog ~{ ig nlf e lgl ]fa`{ gb {l

nlo {gl {fg n e{ nls` nl ~ A^H {fgb dlfgb {l bòg i`g {n k` gg

{` nlo {l {`g lgl n igb |n ~s{ dlgb lfgb gbg lgb nlf X`{ Goe'

[sp gl`g qso glgb d`gl gblè n n {fgb x`n gbl`g ns e lgl ngl af

no g ngb gl |p kgb e lgl nlf E e lgl l` qsp ]fa`{ be ?1 a`g

b`` {lnl n io nlg }lg >'>'1 n |s{ |p kgb' E lgl ~ ~

kgb no ~ ngl af 8 {lgb' [{ n nn a`g ~ ~n ip {lcf {sg ~s{ {lgb'


82/94

2>

Glgb a`g ~ ~{lcf ge lfn qs ~n g` ~sp o {lcf {lgb' Nn nl ~ ~n

a`g ` x{lop ` # {lcf ge e af nls` nl ~ i nls` kgb'

E lgl l` qsp n o o i:

]TP,8)5?U 5 ,N$ ?AF[ $ 1NK $ >N]@ $ ;KNN $ 3 H\QN $ 8IO $ 2

E1N $


83/94

2;

>';' D`g gbl`s d`g {ln l`g e lgl ngl af ~e dlgb lfgb gbglgb {` X`{ Goe

>';'?' x Nlgl }lNlf g {l` è l`g {` gn {o xg nlo n e{ gl lgb n {l nlf

x`n |p kgb e lgl ngl af ~e dlgb lfgb l {lgb gbg lgb' Ag ngl x`n

ig i {gl {` ns {n l {lgb gbg lgb x en {`s {ge 1=?> g ge 1=?3 ~

{} {sgb xf x`n ggb nof nn l`s qs og {fg {sg {l nn nlsg en qsn { x

ngb n |p kgb nn gle gbg lgb igl egl n ~n ie { n{ nlf lf{

gb gbg lgb {fgb gn Nlgl }lngb ng o o n gl lgb |p kgb

e{ e lgl ngl af ~e dlgb lfgb l {lgb GL[E b`} {fg a l {lgbgbg lgb {fgb gn l`s x ge a{ n {e qsog {gb {fgb x`n |p kgb e{

e lgl ngl af l`s qs x n} {l`{' Gl x`n l`g {ln lo e lgl ngl af

e n {l k`g o e{ nnl {lsg {`g x glogl nlgb b} }lg xf ngb nsn {` ns

{n l {lgb GL[E {fgb gn ngb gl {ln p ~ }l{ {`g igl egl x ag

xgb no l {lgb gbg lgb'

>';'1' x` Gbg lgb Gl gn>';'1'?' [lgb gl{ nn qsp gl {fgb x`n |i x ngb a{lgb {`g no nngbg lgb {lgb e`

L`g gop gn {o xg ogb {g {` ~fgb ~fgb lo` l {lgb d {fg } kgb nlf

nn kfogl gbl`} x GL[E' En k GLGG dlspg dlnl x`n ~ kgb l {lgb

d {fg {lcf {`s nlsg qsn { {sp gl`g xg n gl`s GL[E {fgb gn ~ kgb

nn {`s nlsg d {fg no X`{ Goe ,XO^) {fgb x`n {gl {fg x ngb a {lgb {`g

nl ~ en k ~f x {`s nlsg qsn { XO^ ng dl gl`s è nlo lfg {l`g' X

xp {f ~gb a {fgb x`n | i {lgb {`g bò nn GL[E GLGG gg aog

lgl qsp gl nlsgb x x`n ~ kgb nn {`s nlsg d {fg {fgb l {lgb gbg lgb

e af {gl nlgl |n x {lgb gl{ {fgb nn {lgb {`g n ngb a { l {lgb

GL[E'


84/94

23

[le xf x`n dè gl {gl l`s qs no e lgl ~ {ln l`g {{ lg gs

gl n ~ {loe bò no gl`s a`g b`` {lnl' Kf n {l ggb nof dlggb ngl

af ~e dlgb lfgb gbg lgb no e lgl GLGG ngb ng aog lgl qsp gl n

{l x glgb {lgb {`g nl ~ e nn GL[E ng }l` nsgb n} GLGG n {l n

n e{ gbsg a`g ~ ng {l`{ }ln x nlf e lgl ngl af'

>';'1'1' Lfg {l`g ngb {n bè ~{ nn gbg lgb {lgb e`[logl {o bè ~{ gbg lgb ng n n` {l`g lf{ gb no n qsog gp

dlgb nlg {lsg i bè ~{ nn lf{ gb l`g {` no nn GL[E e ng }l`

}l{ l`g o glgb lg nl x ` f ogb {è g {fgb l {lgb gb {l` o o

n glgb glgb ks l`s ngl af ~e k bn glg no n qsog {logl {o bè~{'

GLGG ngb ng n glgb a`g }l} x nlgl ~nl qsp{ i`{ lg {fgb x`n

`s lgl n nl qsg i bè ~{ lf{ gb no nn GL[E n a`{ {fgb x`n n}

{g kgb nlf nn igl xn eogb {gl ` f nof gl a{ gb ~g x nlgb dlfg4 x

qsg { ` f no nn GL[E' { n l`s qs nof {fgb lf{ gb bè ~{

GLGG gg |p kgb e{ dlsgb }l} i gb nlf lf{ gb bè ~{ { |o }lg

gl nln ggb no nn a }lg {gl bp o glgb nlgb nlf {fgb x`n

qsg i x {ln {l` glè x' [le xf nl{ igb no lf{ gb bè ~{ { |o

ngb ~n n` {l`g gs gl |p kgb n a nl {`s bè ~{ }l l} x {ln

{gb }l{ {`g no l {lgb GL[E gn {o ~fgb ngb dlgb {nl dl` nn nlsg

en qsn {4 } kgb nn ngb gbl {`g {`g {fgb qs {gl {ls {l} {lgb {`g4 ggb

nof nl{ igb }lg {nl x | i nn nl{`s

Ag ngl lf{ gb {logl {o x bè ~{ no GLGG ngb ng n {lnl`g e{ nnl {lgb gl{ x ngb agb ` x {{ n nn GL[E dlgb }lg a`{ x

qsp e ig lop gl4 dl` GL[E qsn kfogl x n }lg' Nl n gl xp glgb

gbsg {lgb {`g {ls x {n qsog bè ~{ e` n nlgl |n nof }ln x nlf x`n


85/94

28

|p kgb e{ e lgl ngl af ~e dlgb lfgb l {lgb gbg lgb lf{ gb l`s

qs'

>';'1'>' o o i {gl |p kgb e lgl ngl af ~e dlgb lfgb l {lgbgbg lgb {lgb e`

Ko xf glgb gl lgb no Nlgl }l {fgb x`n |p kgb e lgl ngl

af ~e dlgb lfgb l {lgb GL[E GLGG ng n {llo gl lgb agb x`n

o o e{ i {gl nlf x`n |p kgb e{ e lgl n {l lf{ gb {{ {` X`{ Goe'

Bò` fg gbl`g ns GLGG ng gbl`g ns digb x glgb e lgl ngl

af dlgb lfgb l {lgb gbg lgb n } kgb {g {l b` x dè gl {gl

}l l} no e lgl ` x l {lgb GL[E gn {o'

Bò` fg {lgblè ~os dl` nlg io n e{ e lgl }l l} x l

{lgb GL[E {fgb gn GLGG ng |p kgb e{ e lgl {l gblè lf{ gb

{fgb e{ dlfgb {l` bòg k` gl b` en nlgl |n x l`s qs no e

lgl |p kgb {fgb x`n ngl af dlgb lfgb'

Bò` fg } kgb: p i bò` fg e e lgl ~n } kgb xf {ln {

x lf{ gb gl e{ glè x ngl no GLGG {fgb x`n k af x lg nl ` f

no dlgb lfgb' n {l lfg {l`g lg e lgl GLGG ng {lgl i} e{ {sgb

{e k af dlgb lfgb `gb x nln ggb gl e{ aep xg lgl e lgl'

[sgb {e k af dlgb lfgb n |s{ gl ~os ,Lgl >):

Xe{ {nln: p i n qsog {n {lsn X K af {lgb d {`g { {n

{lsnGLGG x k ~`s lgl no Nlgl }l'

Xe{ lf{ gb: [sgb {e ~ {ls {l} | i {lgb {`g x } kgb e lgl

nglaf n {lb`} GLGG o o n glgb nlgl ~nl x lgl gb }l l}'

[sgb {e ~o o ngl af {lcf {lgb x` gbgb ngl af ~e { 8%?1 {lgb'

Glgb d{ qs ngl af gp ~n {gl ig GLGG { GLGG ~ o qsp{ gl

`s lgl nlgl ~nl x lgl gb n {l }l l}'


86/94

22

Xe{ ns {f: [sgb {e k af ~e dlgb lfgb ~ be > a }lg nlgl i:

A }lg ngl af gl {gl A }lg ngl af gl igb x A }lg dlspg gbl

nlgl ~nl'

% A }lg ngl af gl {gl ~ n 1 gl`e xnlgl i {ls {l} k i`s nn

a`g ~ nlf e lgl ngl af x ~ kgb e lgl n igb |n ~s{ dlgb lfgb'

Nn a`g ~ ~n ip { 3 dls xn i: {` dlfg xgb io` {` dlfg xg dls xn {`

nlgl dls xn ~g |s{ dls xn {` nlgl ngb x d`gl { {fg ns' K i`s n {gb

l} { gbsg k i`s no [gb nn [lgb d x X k af x {lgb d {`g {gbg

lgb' A }lg ngl af gl {gl n {l } kgb gl`s e lgl dln glos k af

dlgb lfgb' [le xf nn a`g ~ngb n {ln {lop ` nlf }l l} x{gb b`o` fg'

Lgl >: [sgb {e kaf dlgb lfgb gbg lgb {lcf |s{

Gbsg: Gle gbl`g ns

Nlgl }l

Gbg lgb Gl gn

X K af {lgb d {`g {

[sgb {e ngl af ~e dlgb lfgb {` nlgl%gbglgb

A }lg ngl af gl {gl

[ls {l} k i`s a`g~

n igb |n ~s{dlgb lfgb

A }lg ngl af {gl igb

A }lg }lg {nl{l {gb qsn {

A }lg }lg {nl {l{gb g` o

A }lg dlspg gblnlgl ~nl


87/94

2';'>'?' Ggb nof en nlgl |n x e`gl anl {fgb ngb a{lgb {`gE lgl ngl af nl n {l lf{ gb l`s qsx n gblo dl` glgb ~ i`s

{gl {fg }lg gl nlgl |n {ln {gb no gg d`gl { x l {lgb gbg lgb' En k

GLGG i n qsog ngb a ls l{ nn ~ i`s ng ~ kgb {fgb e lgl {sp gl`g

GL[E e i nn nl {l {n {`} nsgb n} nn {lgb {`g x ~ i`s GLGG {gb

l}' X xp }l` e af gb gbop {dls s {`g nn ~ i`s x {lgb {`g s

e af n en nlgl |n x e`gl anl gl{ gl'

{ln l`g n `s gp nn GL[E ng {e dè glgb b`` }l} ggb

nof en nlgl |n no nn {lgb {`g ngb a' E{ b`` }l} n o o i nn

GL[E n {l {lgl i} a }lg dè {fg g` a {fgb nlgl gbg lgb no egl

|p kgb e` qsog l bò {logl {o gbg lgb dè {fg g` a x dè {fg ni}' [le xf nn GL[E gg n {nl glè {fgb x`n ngb a nn {lgb {`g e{

nnl d} {l` x nlgl |n lg {lgb qso x`n {ln l`g gblè {n nn qsp gl ps

ns no Nlgl }l x GLGG {fgb x`n nsgb n} nn {lgb {`g x {gl lgl lf{ gb


88/94

20

no ag {lg gbg lgl' Lg go nn GL[E ngb gg io nlg x`n } kgb nn {`s

nlsg d {fgdè {fg {`g {`g nlgl |n x }l l} lg'

>';'>'1'

Ggb nof nl{ igb qsg { ` fNl{ igb qsg { ` f ng ps de no nn GL[E nlgl i gbspg glg

ie bò {gb {l`s nlgl |n {fgb nn {lgb {`g n ngb a' gb {l x`n nlo

glg {ln n {e qsog {gb no qsg { ` f {fgb g` a gbg lgb ~ bp o

glgb {l`s ~{ {fgb x`n |n gl x gl b` en gbsp lè no glgb ` f'

X {l g n {l ie bè {gl l`s qs no e lgl ngl af dlgb lfgb {fgb x`n

n {l qsg { ` f l`s qs nn GL[E ng nl |p kgb x {ln l`g

nn dlsgb qsg { nl`g in nlgl ~nl qsg i x af nf x ` f e{ nnl gb

gl{ {lcf nlsg en x qsg { ` f' Nn gbg lgb ng { nln {{ dls }lg {nl

x k af {l{gb gl b` nn ` f n {l |p o {fgb {gb qsp {gl gbl`} x

gb {l } kgb nn {`g a x dlfo ln ngb gbl{ n ~ nlgl |n x nl`

{`{ lg'


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91/94

' Gbspg ]l` Ig 1=?? E lgl ngl af ~e x nlgl ~nl lgb { g gl

d`gl {x e [} nl Gbg lgb ~ =1$=> d }l{ lgl {lgb ? {ogb 12%>1'

;' Gbspg [logl [n I _sgl ]lgb `gl Lsp n L L` L Gbspg [l

Lspg [ogb 1=?= A` ln nlf { nln Af lè {`g b` X`{ Goe ,K@X) { x`{ no [} fg Af lè {`g b` I`g aogb E ,HK@N) {fgb nsn dlgb lfgb

{` nlgl E 1==2%1=?= [gb ` lnGbfo` {lgb L G`'

3' ]B^'[^' ]log [l[ls L 1==0 Q` f {g kgb x ` f i` ~s{ {fgb _sg {

gbg lgb {lgb e` Gl |s{ ag Bòf {lgb xg {` {ogb ?31%?33'

8' [^' [ [sgb [lgl 1=?1 Glg k`g ` f l {lgb gbg lgb x glgb dlspg

gbl nlf qs {gl {` ns {n l {lgb [} nl D`gl {x ]l{ {`g ~ ?$1 }l{

lgl {lgb ? {ogb 1>'

2' [^' Gbspg _sogb Kfgb 1==1 L` qsp x a`g }l {lsn i n% E lgl

I]E Ifb`{ x ]fa`{ {fgb D`gl { igb nlgb {gl ggb nof) Gl |s{ ag

Dlfo ln x D {ls{ L G` {ogb ;;%3?'

[` i`s [`gb Ogl

?' Ao{lfifecr ]lì`} C Iop QE ( Rloicg B ?003 [lc Kch`g`{`fg fh

^p~{ce`n Q`~d S'^' Fhh`nc fh {lc Nfe}{fiic fh {lc Nscgnp Kc}o{ecg{ fhCnfgfe`n ogk ]fi`np Ogoip~`~ Aogd Qc~conl K`x`~`fg Ro~l`gb{fg K'N'

1' Af`f ( Ifrc 1==1 O~~c{ }`nc~ h`gognòi ogk efgc{op ~{oaì`{p: c|}if`gb

{lc gc|s~ A@^ R] ??;'


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>' Af`f N ( Kcleogg E 1==0 [frok~ og f}co{`fgoi hoecrfd hf h`gognòi

~{oaì`{p: hszzp eco~scecg{ ogk `{~ nfg~cqscgnc~ Efgc{op ogk Cnfgfe`n

Kc}o{ecg{ Aogd hf @g{cgo{`fgoi ^c{{icecg{~'

;' Af`f N ( Ifrc ] 1==1 xoiso{`fg ks ~qsc kc n`~c aogno`c Qo}}f{

{èc~{`ci AQ@'

3' No}`f BJ ( Di`gbca`ci K ?008 Aogd @g~fixcgnp: Aok Isnd Aok ]fi`np f

Aok Aogd`gb6 [lc Rfik Aogd'

8' Ks{{obs}{o Q ( No~l`g) ] 1==%3== x`crck ?3 Jogsop 1=?1'
http://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/imfstp/v45y1998i1p1-48.htmlhttp://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/imfstp/v45y1998i1p1-48.htmlhttp://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/imfstp/v45y1998i1p1-48.htmlhttp://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/imfstp/v45y1998i1p1-48.html


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%3=='l{ei7

?>' Dà`{n`fsbis 1==1 C|nc~~`xc Q`~d [od`gb Aogd`gb ^cn{f Hobì`{p ogk

Aogd`gb N`~`~ Sg`xc~`{p fh @ii`gf`~ o{ SaogoNloe}o`g'

?;' Dsg{ OK ( Kc{obònlc C ?00&1=?1

9l{{}:&&rrr'hckcoic~cxc'bfx&cnfgc~ko{o&~{o{`~{`n~ko{o'l{e7
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[YRC] Đề xuất xây dựng mô hình cảnh báo sớm khủng hoảng hệ thống ngân hàng...

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Transcript of [YRC] Đề xuất xây dựng mô hình cảnh báo sớm khủng hoảng hệ thống ngân hàng...