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1

Khng hong Ton cu 2008 v Bi hc Chnh sch Kinh t V m

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2

Gauti B. Eggertsson and Paul Krugman (2010)

Debt, Deleveraging, and the Liquidity Trap: A Fisher-Minsky-Koo approach

Khng hong 2008 = Minsky Moment+Balance Sheet Recession+Debt-Deflation.

C ch?

Nguyn nhn khng hong v bi hc?

Bi cnh 1. Bc tranh lc quan nhng nm trc khng

hong, tng trng ton cu cao, lm pht thp, li sut thp, dng vn vo Hoa K.

2. Ri ro n ngm c tnh h thng (li sut thp, lc quan tng lai qu mc, gi ti sn tng mnh).

3. Gii hc thut v cc nh chnh sch u ng h Lm pht mc tiu.

4. Chnh sch kinh t c nn xem xt s bng gi ti sn v gia tng n by Ch l vn ang tranh lun

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3

Li sut thp v mt cn bng ton cu Li sut thp nhng nm ngay trc khng hong:

Li sut ngn hn thp: do chnh sch tin t thun chu k. Li sut di hn thp: do S cao chu v nc xut khu du.

Mt cn bng ton cu CA0 ROW S cao chu v nc xut du v S thp Hoa K u t vo ti sn Hoa K (ri ro thp, thanh khon cao) Dng vn ln vo Hoa K

Mt cn i kinh t v m ton cu

Mc tit kim cao t chu , nc xut khu du v thng d thng mi chuyn thnh dng vn vo Hoa K.

Dng vn vo Hoa K chuyn vo BS, bong bng, u t v u c nhiu v ri ro gia tng.

Li sut thp kt hp lc quan qu mc ko theo tng gi ti sn ti chnh v bong bng BS, cc gia nh Hoa K vay v chi tiu nhiu.

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4

Tc ng ca dng vn vo qu ln

Ln gi ni t

Bng gi ti sn (BS v TSTC)

Tng ri ro ln h thng ti chnh ni a

Ngn hng, h gia nh v doanh nghip hng n tn dng, n by, vn BCTS,

p lc ln cu v sn lng

Chnh sch tin t gp kh (nu tng li sut km hot ng kinh t cng hp dn dng vn vo)

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6

Bng n gi ti sn, ni lng ti chnh v mt n nh kinh t v m

Gi ti sn v chu k bng pht- v tn dng l c trng ca cc cuc khng hong ti chnh nhng khng phi tt c cc cuc bng pht u kt thc thnh thm ha (bong bng dot.com 1990s).

Th trng ti chnh v cng c phi sinh Hoa K vt tm kim sot v gia tng ri ro.

Cc ngn hng ln Hoa K to ra siu th ti chnh.

Cc ngn hng tham gia hot ng u t thu li cao, nhng ri ro cao hn.

Quy m ngn hng qu ln nn s sp c th ko c h thng ti chnh i theo.

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7

Bt bnh ng kinh t Hoa K Hoa K - ngi tiu dng cu cnh sau khng

hong ti chnh ng .

Ngi tiu dng Hoa K gim tit kim v tng n duy tr mc tiu dng cao, k vng s thu li cao khi gi nh tip tc tng.

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Bt bnh ng kinh t Hoa K Nguyn nhn gy BB thu nhp v ca ci:

Gia tng cc ngnh dch v thu nhp thp v khng n nh.

Gim quyn lc cng on.

Ni ln ca ngnh ti chnh v ngn hng.

Cc gia nh ngho b ht vo th trng n di chun (NINJA).

Tng trng thu nhp US tch t vo ngi giu

Ngun: Trch t Jonathan Pincus (2012)

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Phn phi ti sn ti chnh US, 2004

Ngun: Trch t Jonathan Pincus (2012)

Nguyn nhn cuc khng hong 2008

Mt cn i kinh t v m ton cu.

Ni lng cc quy nh ti chnh.

Bt bnh ng kinh t Hoa K (?).

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10

Vn chnh sch Rt t s ch vo ri ro t gi ti sn gia tng v

cng c n by, do:

Nim tin vo Lm pht mc tiu v thnh qu kinh t thc t.

c tnh qu thp ri ro tim n.

Qu tin vo cc quy nh thn trng c th kim sot tnh hnh.

Tin rng nu hin tng bng gi ti sn b o ngc th s c trung ha bi mc li sut thp

Vn chnh sch Thm ht v n cng khng c ch ct gim

lc kinh t tng trng thun li, doanh thu thu cao (n khi khng hong s lm hn ch khng gian chnh sch ti kha).

Cu trc thu b bp mo bi vic ngn sch c ti tr bng vay vi li sut thp.

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Cu hi vn cn nghi vn Hoa K cu cc ngn hng c to tm l li hay

xa hn l him ha i vi s n nh ti chnh tng lai?

Cc ngn hng ln c cn k vng s c cu bt k hnh vi ca h ri ro th no?

Cu hi vn cn nghi vn

Bt bnh ng c l nguyn nhn dn n cuc khng hong ti chnh?

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12

Does Inequality Lead to a

Financial Crisis? The recent global crisis has sparked interest in the relationship

between income inequality, credit booms, and financial crises. Rajan (2010) and Kumhof and Rancire (2011) propose that rising inequality led to a credit boom and eventually to a financial crisis in the US in the first decade of the 21st century as it did in the 1920s. Data from 14 advanced countries between 1920 and 2000 suggest these are not general relationships. Credit booms heighten the probability of a banking crisis, but we find no evidence that a rise in top income shares leads to credit booms. Instead, low interest rates and economic expansions are the only two robust determinants of credit booms in our data set. Anecdotal evidence from US experience in the 1920s and in the years up to 2007 and from other countries does not support the inequality, credit, crisis nexus. Rather, it points back to a familiar boom-bust pattern of declines in interest rates, strong growth, rising credit, asset price booms and crises.

Michael D. Bordo

Christopher M. Meissner

http://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/17896.html

Bi hc 1 Th nht, bo him thng qua tch ly d tr

ngoi hi hu khng hong ng khng bn vng, gim sc cu th gii.

Hm chnh sch:

Cn phi hp ton cu qun l ri ro t gi m khng phi duy tr mc d tr qu ln. Cch no?

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Bi hc 2 Th hai, cc nc cn quy nh v gim st hot

ng cho vay v u t ri ro, qun l quy trnh pht trin cng c v hp ng phi sinh, v hot ng bo him v n tn dng .

Hm chnh sch:

Chnh sch tin t c nn bao gm gim st cc ch bo: tng trng tn dng, gi ti sn ti chnh v bt ng sn v hot ng trung gian ti chnh?

Bi hc 3 Th ba, tng cng kim sot qun l cc ngn

hng, nht l khi cc ngn hng ngy cng ln hn.

Hm chnh sch:

Liu qun l nhiu hn c khuyn khch h thi khng tng trng Qu ln c th tht bi hay Qu quan trng n ni khng th tht bi? Lm th no c mt h thng nh gi tn dng thc s c lp v khng thin lch?

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14

Bi hc 4 Olivier Blanchard (2009)

Khng hong 2008 ti hin tranh lun Chnh sch kinh t c nn xem xt s bng gi ti sn v gia tng n by

Khng phi tt c cuc bng gi ti sn u ging nhau. Ph thuc mc lin quan ca khu vc ti chnh. S bng gi v mc n by

Can thip chnh sch ph thuc vo cuc bng gi c ti tr v ri ro nh th no.

Chnh sch tin t nn bao gm bnh n ti chnh-v m ch khng ch n nh gi c.

Hai bi hc chnh sch ti kha: thm ht-bng pht v cu trc thu.

Mt s bi hc khc

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C th qun l v kim sot bong bng

u c khng? (c/khng)

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18

5 tng kt quan trng t thc t Anne Epaulard (2009)

Sp gi nh:

1. C tc ng hiu ng ca ci i vi tiu dng ln

hn bin ng gi ti sn khc.

2. Thng i sau mt hin tng bng gi.

3. Ko theo/xy ra cng vi s sp gi ca ti sn khc.

4. i cng vi nhng tc ng nhanh/mnh i vi h

thng ngn hng so vi tc ng sp gi ca cc ti

sn khc:

5. C s lin kt vi chnh sch tin t tht cht hn l

s sp gi ca ti sn khc.