Use #SMI and #Solar when - SEIA | Solar Energy … SEIA YIR...Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013...

March 18, 2014 © 2014 Solar Energy Industries Association® 1

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Free public webinar today on the #Solar Market

Insight Report 2013 Year in Review. Get all the

highlights: http://seia.us/1mSbZgU #SMI

Use #SMI and #Solar when

mentioning today’s webinar:

U.S. Solar Market Insight: 2013

Year In Review

http://ctt.ec/I436v

Antitrust Reminder

• As a trade association of competitors, SEIA must

comply with federal and D.C. antitrust laws.

• Competitively sensitive matters cannot be

discussed on this webinar, including product

prices; sales terms or conditions; production levels;

sales territories; marketing plans; industry

forecasts; or bid terms.

• If any such topic is raised, SEIA will stop the

conversation and, if necessary, end the webinar.

• For more information, SEIA’s antitrust policy is

available on its website: www.seia.org.


http://www.seia.org/

Cory Honeyman Solar Analyst, GTM Research

Shawn Rumery, Research Manager, Solar Energy Industries Association

Will Lent, Research & Policy Analyst, Solar Energy Industries Association

Will Lent and Shawn Rumery

March 6th, 2014

About SEIA

• Founded in 1974

• U.S. National Trade Association for Solar Energy

• 1,000 member companies from around the world

• Members from across 50 states

• Largest companies in the world as well as small

installers

• Our Mission: Build a strong solar industry to power

America

• Our Goal: 10 gigawatts (GW) of annual installed solar

capacity in the U.S. by 2015


Solar in America: Strong and Getting Stronger

• Nearly 143,000 American workers in solar – more than

double the number in 2009 – at 6,100 companies across

the country

• The value of U.S. solar installations was $13.7 billion in

2013, up from just $810 million in 2006.

• 2013 was the largest year ever for the U.S. solar industry,

with 4,751 MW of PV installed, marking 41% growth over

2012. There were also 410 MW of CSP installed- another

record mark.

• 13,000 MW of cumulative installed solar electric capacity,

enough to power 2.2 million average American homes


U.S. Solar Business Locations


Solar Market Insight: 2013 Year in Review

• Detailed data on markets in

top 30 states plus DC

available in full report.

• Free executive summary

provides national aggregate

data on installations, pricing,

manufacturing and demand

forecasts.

• Full report for sale (50%

discount to SEIA members)

includes quarterly forecasts

as well as detailed market

segment and state data.


SEIA/GTM Research Partnership

• Industry need for up-to-date and reliable market data

– Market reports issued every quarter

• Member discount: benefit for SEIA members

– Reliable market intelligence

– Member discount makes SMI the most affordable market

research available

• Data to support SEIA’s advocacy mission

• SEIA-GTM conferences

• Email questions to [email protected] or

[email protected]


mailto:[email protected]


1,206 MW Installed in Q4 2013- Largest Quarter in

History



Record Quarters for All Three Market Segments

Over 445,000 PV Systems Operating in the US


Price Declines Driving Growth


Average Residential System Price - $4.59/W


Average Commercial System Price - $3.57/W


2013 State Performance


What to Expect For 2014


U.S. Solar Market Forecast- PV Market to Grow by

26% in 2014


U.S. PV Installations by Market Segment

Quarterly Installations

(MWdc)Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013

Residential 168 171 194 259

Non-Residential 255 226 227 405

Utility 322 543 540 1,442

Total 744 939 962 2,106

• Top 5 states accounted for 81% of all installations in 2013

– 3,850 MW from CA (all), AZ (all), NC (utility PV), MA (DG), and NJ (DG)

• Top 5 states in 2013 will once again be the same in 2014

– But 50% of all states will add at least 20 MW in 2014

The Top 5 States Drove Majority of Growth

Key Figures

• 2013: 792 MW installed, up 60%

year-over-year

• Q4 2013: 259 MW installed

National Level Trends

• Evolving Channel Strategies

– Retail Outlets

– Competitive Electricity Suppliers

• Financial Innovations

– Securitization of residential PV

assets

– Rising popularity of solar loans vs.

third party ownership

Residential Market: Fueled by Q4 Boom

• CA (410 MW): Growth amidst the

depletion of CSI incentives

– 2H 2013: Consecutive 100 MW+

quarters

• AZ (72.3 MW): Demand pull-in amidst

impending net metering reforms

– Rebates reduced to $0.10/W and funding

then depleted in Q4 2013

• HI (85.4 MW): PV grid saturation

challenges underlie market growth

– Sluggish approval of interconnection

requests shifts growth from Q3 to Q4

– ¼ of Oahu distribution circuits’ PV

penetration > 100% minimum DTL

– 20% fewer PV permits pulled in 2013

than 2012 on Oahu

Residential Market: State Level Analysis

• Accounted for 52% of national

residential market in 2013

• Residential rebates are

exhausted in PG&E territory,

while SCE and SDG&E’s

incentives are in the final step

• “Retail rate parity” with only

30% ITC, net metering, and

accelerated depreciation

• National level trends of

financial innovation and

evolving channel strategies on

display

California: Unprecedented Growth Post-CSI

Key Figures

• 2013: 1,112 MW installed, up 4%

year-over-year

• Q4 2013: 405 MW installed

National Level Trends

• Highlighted by lumpy development

cycles

– Higher sensitivity to incentive

reductions than residential market

– Continued need to standardize

access to financing

• NJ’s downturn vs. Secondary

Markets’ Expansion

Non-Residential Market: Volatile 2013

• CA (293 MW) and AZ (58.1 MW): Incentives targeting school and government projects lead growth

• MA (177.7 MW): Largest quarter ever amidst rush to qualify under SREC I and private/public net metering caps

– SREC I Capacity Online: 410 MW

– Pipeline Eligible under SREC I: 262 MW (non-residential)

• NJ (188.8 MW): SREC price stabilization spurs market rebound in Q4 2013

• Markets on the Rise:

– NY (42.2 MW) NYSERDA’s Competitive PV Program

– CT (22.6 MW) IOU’s ZREC Programs

Non-Residential Market: State Level Analysis

Utility PV Market: Top 10 Q4 Projects Completed

Project Name DeveloperCapacity

(MWdc)State Power Offtaker

Desert Sunlight PG&E -

Phase IFirst Solar 231.6 CA Pacific Gas & Electric

Topaz Solar Farm - Phase III First Solar 160.8 CA Pacific Gas & Electric

Campo Verde Solar First Solar 159.8 CA San Diego Gas & Electric

SunPower High Plains

(California Valley Solar

Ranch) - Phase IV & V

SunPower 141.4 CA Pacific Gas & Electric

Desert Sunlight SCE - Phase

IFirst Solar 88.4 CA

Southern California

Edison

Antelope Valley Solar I

(Solar Star California XX)SunPower 65.5 CA

Southern California

Edison

Alamo - Phase 1 OCI Enterprises 47.1 TX CPS Energy

Simon Solar Farm Silicon Ranch 38.0 GA Georgia Power

Indy Solar Projects I-III Dominion 32.9 INIndianapolis Power &

Light

Sol Orchard Imperial 1 Grupo T-Solar 25.0 CA Imperial Irrigation District

• 2013: 2,847 MW installed, up 58%

year-over-year

– 1,442 MW installed in Q4 2013

alone

• 9 of the 10 largest PV projects

currently online were completed or

partially commissioned in 2013

Key Market Takeaways

• Completion of mega-scale projects

with longstanding PPAs in place

with the California IOUs

• Emergence of secondary

wholesale DG markets

• Q4 2013: First time installations

outpaced pipeline replenishment

Gigawatt Growth vs. Pipeline in Decline

5,836

25,120

3,314

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Operating Contracted (PPA Signed) Announced (Pre-Contract)

Ca

pacity

(MW

dc)

U.S. Utility PV Pipeline

In Construction

11,657

2013: Legislative and Regulatory Roundup

State Reform Regulatory

Lever

Key Details

CA NEM and Rate

Design

AB 327 • Fixed charges (up to $10/month)

• Flattening tiered rate structures

• New uncapped NEM program after July 1, 2017 or when

predefined capacity limits are reached

• Length of grandfathering will depend on a “reasonable

expected payback period” of the PV system based on the

first year it came on-line.

AZ NEM ACC Ruling • Fixed charge of $0.70/kW/month

• Grandfathered in under old NEM program for 20 years if

interconnection application submitted before end of 2013

GA Utility Procurement PUC

mandates

• ASI (210 MW): 90 MW for projects up to 1 MW; 120 MW

for large scale PV projects (1-20 MW)

• ASI Prime (525 MW): 425 MW of large scale PV (not

capped at 20 MW) and 100 MW of wholesale DG

MA Solar Carve Out State RPS • Solar carve out expanded to 1,600 MW by 2020

MN Solar Carve Out State RPS • 1.5% solar carve out by 2020

• Community solar gardens, Solar*Rewards, 150 MW utility

PV RFP, and VOST methodology finalized

Bullish Outlook for 2014-2016

• We expect continued strong, albeit

moderate, growth across all market

segments through 2016

Market Downturn in 2017

• We expect a drop off in installations,

partially due to pull-in demand in 2016

ahead of the Federal ITC’s expiration

• The market would likely begin a

recovery in 2018

Four Year PV Market Outlook

Average Installed Prices Fall Year-Over-Year

U.S. Component Prices Recover in 2013

Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013

Polysilicon

($/kg)

$19.88 $17.36 $19.00 $19.00 $20.20

Wafer ($/W) $0.23 $0.21 $0.22 $0.22 $0.23

Cell ($/W) $0.31 $0.32 $0.44 $0.42 $0.43

Module ($/W) $0.68 $0.64 $0.68 $0.70 $0.72

U.S. Concentrating Solar Update

Thank You and Contact Info

Justin Baca, Director of Research

Will Lent, Senior Analyst

Shawn Rumery, Research Manager

Contact: [email protected]

Cory Honeyman, Solar Analyst

Contact: [email protected]

For more information about purchasing

the full SEIA/GTM Research U.S. Solar

Market Insight: 2013 Year-in-Review™

report, please visit

www.gtmresearch.com/ussmi or email

Justin Freedman

([email protected])

http://www.gtmresearch.com/ussmi


Questions

Please type your questions into the lower left corner

of the window.

Click the “send” button to submit.


Use #SMI and #Solar when - SEIA | Solar Energy … SEIA YIR...Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013...

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