1

Phase IV Projection Emission Phase IV Projection Emission InventoriesInventories

FEJF MeetingFEJF Meeting

Day 2, 9:30aDay 2, 9:30a

February 8, 2006 – Albuquerque, NMFebruary 8, 2006 – Albuquerque, NM

2

Phases of Fire EIsPhases of Fire EIs

• Phase II (historical 2002)

• Baseline (Phase III) (nominal 2000-2004)

• Projections (Phase IV) (nominal 2018)Activity Scenarios for each fire type

• Less

• Likely

• More

Note: The PLANNING inventories (Phase III & IV) are unique EI’s…unique from each other AND unique from Phase II

3

2018 Projection Activity Scalars2018 Projection Activity ScalarsFire-type Less Likely More

Wildfire 0.9 x (WF base + WFU base)

0.5 x (WF base + WFU base)

0.5 x (WF base + WFU base)

WFU 0.1 x (WFU base + WF base)

0.5 x (WFU base + WF base)

1.0 x (WFU base + WF base)

Rx Agency 0.25 x IFC 0.5 x IFC Interagency Fuels Committee activity targets

Rx S/P/O 1.0 x Baseline 2.0 x Baseline 3.0 x Baseline

Ag Baseline – (SJV & WA Orchard Removal)

NFR NRCS 2018 estimate

4

Anticipated 2018 Activity LevelsAnticipated 2018 Activity Levels (Acres)(Acres)

Fire-type Less Likely More

WF + WFU 4.7 MM 4.7 MM 7.0 MM

Rx (broadcast + piles)

1.0 MM 2.0 MM 3.7 MM

Ag 1.7 MM

NFR 1.3 MM

5

Air Quality Planning Fire EI Air Quality Planning Fire EI SuitesSuites

AQ Planning Suites - Fire Emission Inventory ProjectionsRevised: November 29, 2005

1 2 3 4

Base-caseBaseline

Control-case

Climate conditions/

resource limited

Max-App of Rx Fire

WF LIKELY Baseline MORE LIKELYWFU LIKELY Baseline MORE LIKELY

Rx ERT's applied LIKELY Baseline w/ERT LESS MORENFR ERT's applied LIKELY Baseline w/ERT LIKELY LIKELY

Ag ERT's applied LIKELY Baseline w/ERT LIKELY LIKELY

Fill each cell with appropriate Fire-Type-specific SCENARIO

(LESS , LIKELY , MORE)

6

WRAP Phase IV 2018 Fire Projection EI Source Activity Scenarios Grouped into Air Quality Planning Suites

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

Ac

res

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

To

ns

PM

2.5

Prescribed Acres 669,348 1,959,700 966,191 3,704,327

WFU Acres 153,697 2,311,067 4,703,922 2,311,067

Wildfire Acres 4,517,818 2,263,069 2,263,069 2,263,069

Agricultural Acres 2,164,166 1,730,333 1,730,333 1,730,333

NF Rangeland Acres 1,042,003 1,257,004 1,257,004 1,257,004

Prescribed PM2.5 64,170 219,298 110,091 427,028

WFU PM2.5 41,171 526,636 1,155,633 526,636

Wildfire PM2.5 971,453 480,269 480,269 480,269

Agricultural PM2.5" 34,590 29,591 29,591 29,591

NF Rangeland PM2.5 15,454 18,643 18,643 18,643

Baseline Control Case Base-caseClimate conditions/

resource limitedMax-App of Rx Fire

Less

Mo

re

Mo

re

Mo

re

("Likely" activity and emission scenario choosen unless otherwise noted)

7

Basic Steps to Run theBasic Steps to Run theCalc ToolCalc Tool

8

Calc Tool Prototype as Excel WorkbookCalc Tool Prototype as Excel Workbook

9

Load Seed Data (WRAP Baseline)Load Seed Data (WRAP Baseline)

10

1- User enters scalars 2- Tool calculates number of new events/acres needed

3- Hit “Go” and events are “looked up” from randomized Source sheet into New Events sheet

11

Post ProcessingPost Processing

• Apply ERTs after Calc Tool selection(Will be integrated into Calc Tool.)– ERT Seasonal Suites for lookup table being

finished after yesterdays’ Strawman Session.

• Combine output into single 250,000 record all-scenario database for graphing and QA.

• Format into SMOKE and NIF files.

12

Detailed Results andDetailed Results andCalc Tool MethodsCalc Tool Methods

13

WRAP Phase IV 2018 Fire Projection EI Source Activity Scenarios Grouped into Air Quality Planning Suites

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

Ac

res

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

To

ns

PM

2.5

Prescribed Acres 669,348 1,959,700 966,191 3,704,327

WFU Acres 153,697 2,311,067 4,703,922 2,311,067

Wildfire Acres 4,517,818 2,263,069 2,263,069 2,263,069

Agricultural Acres 2,164,166 1,730,333 1,730,333 1,730,333

NF Rangeland Acres 1,042,003 1,257,004 1,257,004 1,257,004

Prescribed PM2.5 64,170 219,298 110,091 427,028

WFU PM2.5 41,171 526,636 1,155,633 526,636

Wildfire PM2.5 971,453 480,269 480,269 480,269

Agricultural PM2.5" 34,590 29,591 29,591 29,591

NF Rangeland PM2.5 15,454 18,643 18,643 18,643

Baseline Control Case Base-caseClimate conditions/

resource limitedMax-App of Rx Fire

Less

Mo

re

Mo

re

Mo

re

("Likely" activity and emission scenario choosen unless otherwise noted)

14

WRAP Phase IV 2018 Fire Projection EI Fire Sources by Agency (without Alaska)

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

Acr

es

BIA 47,818 47,818 19,109 38,358 77,749 0 2,132 27,763 91,986 600,239 395,475 125,454 125,454 0 0

BLM 89,916 95,447 57,251 117,195 236,575 208 11,554 458,238 870,609 473,904 947,452 524,324 524,324 0 0

FWS 33,737 28,636 39,303 79,759 159,377 0 2,139 17,888 53,786 34,166 49,374 22,266 22,266 0 0

NPS 22,972 28,047 8,707 19,638 43,124 8,154 7,184 23,218 64,175 35,293 26,341 10,835 10,835 0 0

USFS 239,916 244,147 616,318 1,243,609 2,493,466 33,633 41,190 766,572 1,455,405 1,898,385 1,658,546 920,005 920,005 0 0

STATE 36,920 37,449 36,411 75,095 112,325 0 0 0 0 0 0

PRIVATE 155,255 164,108 161,892 330,137 492,325 0 0 0 0 0 0

OTHER 21,401 22,452 21,694 44,907 67,357 0 31,262 194,370 428,361 443,966 375,533 126,229 126,229 1,042,003 1,042,003 1,257,004

Phase II Baseline less likely more Phase II Baseline likely more Phase II Baseline likely more Phase II Baseline likely

prescribed WFU Wildfire NF Rangeland

15

WRAP Phase IV 2018 Fire Projection EI Wildfire and WFU (with Alaska)

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

Acr

es

0

1

2

Mil

lio

ns

To

ns

PM

2.5

Total Acres 4,671,515 4,574,135 6,966,991

Wildfire Acres 4,517,818 2,263,069 2,263,069

WFU Acres 153,697 2,311,067 4,703,922

WF+WFU PM2.5 1,012,624 1,006,904 1,635,902

Baseline Likely More

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WRAP Phase IV 2018 Fire Projection EI Wildfire and WFU by State

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

Bas

elin

elik

ely

mor

eB

asel

ine

likel

ym

ore

Bas

elin

elik

ely

mor

eB

asel

ine

likel

ym

ore

Bas

elin

elik

ely

mor

eB

asel

ine

likel

ym

ore

Bas

elin

elik

ely

mor

eB

asel

ine

likel

ym

ore

Bas

elin

elik

ely

mor

eB

asel

ine

likel

ym

ore

Bas

elin

elik

ely

mor

eB

asel

ine

likel

ym

ore

Bas

elin

elik

ely

mor

eB

asel

ine

likel

ym

ore

AK AZ CA CO ID MT ND NM NV OR SD UT WA WY

Acr

es WFU

Wildfire

17

WRAP Phase IV 2018 Fire Projection EI Prescribed Burning by Agency: Broadcast and Piled (without Alaska)

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Acr

es

BIA 33,041 33,041 13,527 27,143 55,199 14,778 14,778 5,582 11,215 22,551

BLM 86,206 90,860 60,730 124,415 250,445 3,710 4,587 1,521 2,768 6,126

FWS 33,574 28,473 38,708 78,498 156,785 164 164 1,100 2,275 4,625

NPS 21,454 25,801 8,050 18,277 40,180 1,518 2,245 657 1,361 2,945

USFS 194,462 196,306 496,885 997,256 1,994,033 45,454 47,841 119,433 246,353 499,433

STATE 30,094 29,646 28,819 59,454 88,938 6,826 7,803 7,592 15,641 23,387

PRIVATE 55,619 54,738 53,778 109,883 164,214 99,636 109,370 108,114 220,254 328,111

OTHER 20,362 20,824 20,206 41,649 62,473 1,039 1,628 1,488 3,258 4,884

Phase II Baseline less likely more Phase II Baseline less likely more

broadcast Piled

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WRAP Phase IV 2018 Fire Projection EI Prescribed Burning by State: Activity and Emissions

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

Acr

es

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

To

ns

PM

2.5

Baseline Acres 1,244 103,569 69,291 28,746 78,494 77,418 21,030 37,259 8,460 142,153 9,905 18,649 45,109 28,025 669,348

Less Acres 5,505 150,072 95,680 41,621 116,860 122,538 26,772 78,718 6,896 188,369 13,726 29,403 60,077 29,956 966,191

Likely Acres 11,002 297,954 191,740 90,326 234,519 250,598 54,509 160,832 15,491 379,327 31,157 59,215 121,845 61,186 1,959,700

More Acres 22,029 601,074 375,276 182,167 459,294 453,786 94,572 305,973 30,335 673,083 61,633 118,671 210,437 116,000 3,704,327

Baseline PM2.5 178 20,213 7,564 705 10,222 7,054 555 2,795 397 13,739 332 2,487 2,548 3,428 72,218

Less PM2.5 (cont) 215 33,489 8,888 1,143 19,059 9,586 707 8,043 396 17,068 377 4,204 4,109 2,805 110,091

Likely PM2.5 (cont) 304 66,113 18,268 2,334 38,628 19,314 1,446 15,861 850 33,697 698 8,059 7,860 5,866 219,298

More PM2.5 (cont) 611 133,796 35,352 4,746 75,814 34,926 2,527 31,433 1,655 61,777 1,438 16,211 15,384 11,357 427,028

AK AZ CA CO ID MT ND NM NV OR SD UT WA WYGrand Total

19

WRAP Phase IV 2018 Fire Projection EI Prescribed Burning: Burn Type (with Alaska)

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

To

ns

PM

2.5

0

2

4

Mil

lio

ns

Acr

es

Averted (ERTs on Broad-ANTH) 8,048 15,706 31,978 60,834

Broadcast - ANTH 25,720 38,651 77,673 149,965

Piled - ANTH 8,298 11,254 21,436 39,216

Broadcast - NAT 38,201 60,187 120,190 237,846

Acres 669,348 966,191 1,959,700 3,704,327

Baseline Less Likely More

20

WRAP Phase IV 2018 Fire Projection EI Prescribed Burning by State: Averted Emissions

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

To

ns

PM

2.5

Less PM2.5 (averted)

Likely PM2.5 (averted)

More PM2.5 (averted)

Baseline PM2.5

Less PM2.5 (cont)

Likely PM2.5 (cont)

More PM2.5 (cont)

AK AZ CA CO ID MT ND NM NV OR SD UT WA WYGrand Total

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

Less PM2.5 (averted) 25 5 2,006 9 6,709 2,452 0 332 48 3,561 0 180 219 160 15,706

Likely PM2.5 (averted) 25 13 4,025 15 13,889 4,905 0 734 95 7,132 0 311 442 393 31,978

More PM2.5 (averted) 50 22 7,425 35 26,876 8,612 0 1,367 182 13,931 0 561 885 888 60,834

Baseline PM2.5 178 20,213 7,564 705 10,222 7,054 555 2,795 397 13,739 332 2,487 2,548 3,428 72,218

Less PM2.5 (cont) 215 33,489 8,888 1,143 19,059 9,586 707 8,043 396 17,068 377 4,204 4,109 2,805 110,091

Likely PM2.5 (cont) 304 66,113 18,268 2,334 38,628 19,314 1,446 15,861 850 33,697 698 8,059 7,860 5,866 219,298

More PM2.5 (cont) 611 133,796 35,352 4,746 75,814 34,926 2,527 31,433 1,655 61,777 1,438 16,211 15,384 11,357 427,028

21

WRAP Phase IV 2018 Fire Projection EI Agricultural Burning by State

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

Acr

es

Baseline Acres 0 16,203 727,641 38,231 292,348 8,890 211,932 21,180 1,330 129,781 5,018 16,684 656,705 38,223 2,164,166

2018 Acres 0 16,203 294,500 38,231 292,348 8,890 211,932 21,180 1,330 129,781 5,018 16,684 655,371 38,223 1,729,691

Acres Removed 0 0 433,141 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,334 0 434,475

AK AZ CA CO ID MT ND NM NV OR SD UT WA WY Grand Total

22NFR data graphed here is not from final model-ready emission inventory

WRAP Phase IV 2018 Fire Projection EI Non-Federal Prescribed Rangeland Burning by State

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

Acr

es

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

To

ns

PM

2.5

Baseline Acres 0 250,001 40,000 12,000 8,000 150,001 25,000 60,000 1,000 300,001 150,001 25,000 6,000 15,000 1,042,003

Likely Acres 0 375,001 40,000 20,000 10,000 150,001 35,000 120,000 1,000 300,001 150,001 35,000 6,000 15,000 1,257,004

Baseline PM2.5 0 3,708 593 178 119 2,225 371 890 15 4,449 2,225 371 89 222 15,454

Likely PM2.5 0 5,562 593 297 148 2,225 519 1,780 15 4,449 2,225 519 89 222 18,643

AK AZ CA CO ID MT ND NM NV OR SD UT WA WYGrand Total

23

Rounding Deviation from Scalars Rounding Deviation from Scalars and Activity Targetsand Activity Targets

• Multiplying a baseline level times its scalar arrived at an activity target in acres.

• By design, the Calc Tool pulls fire-days (with their complete acres and emissions) up to this activity target.

• For every jurisdiction in the calc tool, the event-based projection EI will therefore deviate from the activity targets.

• Can be thought of as a “rounding error.”

24

Rounding Deviation StatisticsRounding Deviation Statistics

• Assessed deviation by-state or by-agency or by-burn type for all fire types and scenarios.

• Did not attempt to hit each Rx state-agency-burn type combination.

• Average deviation of 2.6% for all 124 scalars needed for 2018 projections suites.

• 10 projections were over 10%. These had fewer than 100,000 acres as the projection target so could be affected by a large fire in seed data.

• Two of the largest are being examined and improved at present.

25

Significant Features of 2018 Significant Features of 2018 Projection Calc ToolProjection Calc Tool

26

Significant Features –Significant Features –Software ArchitectureSoftware Architecture

• Software design strategy of “seed data” versus programming code to create new EI– Customize historic data to have appropriate seed events for desired

projection EI.– Leave Calc Tool code to only choose events up to activity targets,

not modify events per se.– Benefit: User can alter event data to suite EI planning rather than

reworking code. • Pre-processing seed data

– Random sort of events so new EI doesn’t have undesirable patterns in events.For instance an 0.5 scalar pulls events only from counties A – M because of original order.

– Hand remove or flag ineligible events: Certain large Rx fires were causing big rounding errors in jurisdictions with small targets. Flag a realistic size limit for WFU events in WF pool.

27

Significant Features – Significant Features – Rx Stem Cell EventsRx Stem Cell Events

• Creating fire events for 2018 where none existed in historic data (aka “stem cell events”)– Scalars and IFC activity targets resulted in 2018 Rx activity

projected for state-agency-burn type combinations which did not exist in 2002/baseline seed data.

– For only those instances, prototype prescribed burns were created outside the calc tool and augmented into seed data.

– 50 acre broadcast burns and 25 acre pile burns dropped on every 12-km grid cell per agency land where needed.

– Fuel loading (at centroid), lat/lon, and random date assigned to event (piles: April or November; broadcast: April or October).

– Benefit: Reasonable size and date with site-specific fuel loading satisfies this unexpected gap filling. Compatible with cloning.

28

Significant Features –Significant Features –Event ManagementEvent Management

• Cloning events– Rx events are re-used to create more activity.– WF events are re-used to achieve WFU targets.– “Data inbreeding” mitigated by adjusting date +/- 7 days and

assuming event occurs elsewhere in same model grid cell.– Benefit: Create additional realistic model-ready activity for 2018

while not simply scattering events or scaling up emissions in existing events.

• Handling multi-day events and smoldering records– Random sort of seed events does preserve fire-day order and

smolder record pairing.– Benefit: Entire events are pulled into new EI.

29

Next StepsNext Steps

• Complete ERT strawman for Southwest and Intermountain West regions. At present utilizing Northwest ERT suite for all states.

• Circulate and implement strawman docs for Nat/Anth assignment of WFU, EPA-compatible SCC codes, and Ag projections.

• Refine the Rx Fire Calc Tool as a prototype software for state and Tribe scale.

30

Next StepsNext Steps

• Deliver formatted output files from Phase IV Calc Tools and group into modeling suites.

• Deliver Draft documentation for Phase III/IV Task Team Review

• Incorporate comments and deliver Phase III/IV Final documentation.