New forms of displays: when will they become economically feasible?

WHEN WILL NEW TYPES OF DISPLAYS BECOME ECONOMICALLY FEASIBLE AND THUS BEGIN TO DIFFUSE? 5TH SESSION OF MT5009

A/Prof Jeffrey Funk

Division of Engineering and Technology

Management

National University of Singapore

For information on other technologies, see http://www.slideshare.net/Funk98/presentations

Objectives

What are the important dimensions of performance for displays and their higher level systems?

What are the rates of improvement? What drives these rapid rates of

improvement? Will these improvements continue? What kinds of new systems will likely

emerge from the improvements in displays? What does this tell us about the future?

Session Technology

1 Objectives and overview of course

2 When do new technologies become economically feasible?

3 Two types of improvements: 1) Creating materials that better exploit physical phenomena; 2) Geometrical scaling

4 Semiconductors, ICs, electronic systems

5 MEMS and Bio-electronic ICs

6 Lighting, Lasers, and Displays

7 DNA sequencing and Nanotechnology

8 Human-Computer Interfaces

9 Superconductivity and Solar Cells

10 Deepavali, NO CLASS

This is Fifth Session of MT5009

As Noted in Previous Session, Two main mechanisms for improvements

Creating materials (and their associated processes) that better exploit physical phenomena

Geometrical scaling Increases in scale Reductions in scale

Some technologies directly experience improvements while others indirectly experience them through improvements in “components”

A summary of these ideas can be found in 1) forthcoming paper in California Management Review, What Drives Exponential Improvements?2) book from Stanford University Press, Technology Change and the Rise of New Industries

Both are Relevant to Displays

Creating materials (and their associated processes) that better exploit physical phenomena Creating materials that better exploit the phenomena for

LCDs OLEDs and other displays Geometrical scaling

Increases in scale: larger substrates/production equipment

Reductions in scale: thinner materials Some technologies directly experience

improvements while others indirectly experience them through improvements in “components” Better displays lead to better electronic systems

From the firstsession. What is the future of displays?

How big will these displays be?

And how will we interact with them?

Will We Use Our Handsi.e., GestureInterfaceCOr something else?

How About Our Homes? What will they be Like?

Another View of Future Displays

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Cf7IL_eZ38

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jZkHpNnXLB0

Can you write down all the applications that you see

Some of the applications in the Videos

Photovoltaic glass, Touch screen displays on closets, in cars, phones, tablets, automobile windows, tables, walls (classrooms), 3D displays, in middle of air, in forest, augmented reality

PV glass, mirror, refrigerator, counter table, autos (GPS), MRT maps, retail clothing, eBook readers

Outline

Liquid Crystal Displays (LCDs) Cost reductions from increases in

scale of LCD substrates (and production equipment)

3D LCD displays Organic light emitting diode (OLED)

displays Electronic paper Holographic displays

Composition of LCD Panels

http://www.ercservice.com/learning/what-is-tft-lcd.html

Another Breakdown of LCD TV

CCFL Backlit LCD TV CCFL Backlight

DiffusersTo ensure a uniform brightness across panel

PolarizerTo ensure that the image produced is aligned correctly

LCD PanelAn LCD panel is made up of millions of pixels filled with liquid crystals arranged in grid, which open and shut to let the backlight through and create images

Antiglare CoatingProvides a mirror-like finish, making the backlight appear brighter

Display Screen

CCFL (cold cathode fluorescent light)(78.6 mm)backlight has been replaced with white-light LEDs(29.9 mm)

“LED Television”

Not really an LED television An LCD television that is backlit by white

LEDs Lower energy costs, higher contrast,

variety of advantages But can’t make television only from LEDs

because different color LEDs require different materials and those materials cannot be placed on the same substrate (at least currently)

Other Improvements in LCD Televisions

Source: AUOSource: OLED Summit Preview, San Francisco, September 27-29 Barry Young, Young Market Research, February 18, 2013

Outline

Liquid Crystal Displays (LCDs) Cost reductions from increases in scale of

LCD substrates 3D LCD displays Organic light emitting diode (OLED)

displays Electronic Paper Holographic displays

Nishimura’s Law: The size of LCD substrate grows by a factor of 1.8

every 3 years, doubles every 3.6 years (large panels are cut into appropriate sizes for electronic products)

Less than half the time for IC wafers to double in size (7.5 years)

Odawara’s Law: Costs fall by 22-23% for doubling in cumulative

production Kichihara’s Law: every three years

Power consumption decreases by 44% Panel thickness and weight are reduced by one-third Number of bits needed per screen increases fourfold

Display Panel Trends – towards larger and cheaper panels

Source: http://metaverseroadmap.org/inputs.html, US Display Consortium (USDC)

http://metaverseroadmap.org/inputs.html

http://www.economist.com/node/21543215 Source: Television Making: Cracking Up, Economist, January 21st, 2012, p. 66

Increases in Scale of LCD Substrates (and also IC Wafers, Solar Substrates)

Equipment costs per area of output fall as size of equipment is increased, similar to chemical plants

For chemical plants Cost is function of surface area (or radius squared) Output is function of volume (radius cubed) Thus, costs increase by 2/3 for each doubling of

equipment capacity For LCD Substrates, IC Wafers, and Solar

Substrates Processing, transfer, and setup time (inverse of output)

fall as area of substrate increases since entire area can be processed, transferred, and setup together

Another Benefit from Large Panels is Smaller Edge Effects

Panel

Equipment

Effect Effects: the equipment must be much wider than panel to achieve uniformity

Ratio of equipment to panel width falls as the size of the panel is increased

Increases in LCD Substrate Size

Source: www.lcd-tv-reviews.com/pages/fabricating_tft_lcd.php

Scale of photolithographic aligners (upper left), sputtering equipment (top right), and mirrors for aligners (lower left) for LCD equipment

Source: http://www.canon.com/technology/canon_tech/explanation/fpd.html

http://www.electroiq.com/articles/sst/print/volume-50/issue-2/features/cover-article/scaling-and-complexity-drive-lcd-yield-strategies.html

We can also see the falling cost of LCDs in the falling price of LCD TVs, albeit some of the cost reductions are coming from the falling costs of ICs

Outline

Cathode Ray Tube Liquid Crystal Displays (LCDs) Cost reductions from increases in scale of



Time-Sequential 3D with active 3D Glasses

(common in movies)

Sources for these slides: Adapted from published paper in Technology and Society by Ng Pei Sin and myself

Improvements in Frame-Rate are Occurring

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Increased frame-rate of content approaches Critical Flicker Fusion point (where higher frame rate has no perceived benefit) – 60Hz. Increase frame rate gives smoother, flicker-free motion, especially in high-action videos

Increased Frame-rate of Display Reaches 120Hz; surpasses critical flicker fusion point

Surplus enables implementation of Time-sequential 3D without compromising improved frame rate of content

Improved LCD frame-rate due to improvement in Liquid Crystal structure, reduced cell-gap, and improved methods to shorten liquid crystal response time

120Hz - Minimum screen frame-rate for ‘flicker-free’ Time-sequential 3D

Fram

e pe

r sec

onds

(Hz)

Display Frame-Rate

Improvements in Frame Rate Increase the Economic Feasibility of Time

Sequential 3D Improvement in Liquid

Crystal response time enable: High frame-rate in LCD display

and in active 3D glasses Economical

Estimated cost of adding 3D to LCD display range from 10% to 30% the cost of panel

Falling costs from larger substrate size can offset these higher costs

But glasses are a big disadvantage……….

Auto-Stereoscopic Displays Do Not Require Special 3D Glasses

Panel pixels are divided into two groups one for left-eye images another for right-eye

images A filter element is used to

focus each pixel into a viewing zone

In order to view television from different places in the room, multiple viewing zones are needed

Improvements in photolithographic equipment enable increases in pixel density lags resolution in ICs by many years

Sometimes called Kitahara’s Law, improvements of about 4 times occur every 3 years

These increases in pixel density Enable high definition television But will exceed the resolution of our eyes

Thus, these increases can be used to assign different pixels to right and left eye and to different “viewing” zones

Increases in Pixel Density, i.e., Resolution

At least128 million pixels/sq inch are needed 8.3 million pixels needed for high-definition

TV at least eight viewing zones needed to

accommodate head movements each viewing zone needs two sets of pixels 8.3 x 8 x 2 = 128

Best pixel density at Consumer Electronics Show in 2011 was 8.3 million pixels/sq inch If pixel density continues to increase four-

times every three years, technical feasibility in 2017

As for economic feasibility, this depends on incremental cost of the higher densities. If the incremental cost is small, they will probably become economically feasible before 2020.

Auto-Stereoscopic Displays

But not much diffusion

Not enough content? Not enough interest in 3D? One question is whether such content can be easily

created

Standardization and digitalization ease handling, storing and presentation of 3D videos

Standardization reduces complexity and cost of having to produce 3D contents for multiple competing formats

Digital 3D formats build from MPEG-4 video compression with Multiview Video Coding (MVC) encoding

“Historical Progression of Media”, From: Three-Dimensional Television: Capture, transmission, Display. By Haldun M. Ozaktas, Levent Onural

Other Factors Should Enable New Content:

Standardization and Digitization of Video

Other Factors Should Enable Better Content: Better graphic processors

http://www.behardware.com/articles/659-1/nvidia-cuda-preview.html“NVIDIA® TESLA® GPU COMPUTING”, Nvidia, 2010, http://www.nvidia.com/docs/IO/43395/tesla-brochure-12-lr.pdf

Improved Graphics processing unit (GPU) enables: More MPEG4 video compression Rendering of more realistic computer animation (more

polygon count and motion control points) Rendering of 3D models for stereoscopic video for 3D

displays

Enable realistic stereoscopic computer animation good enough for cinema screens presentation, increasing contents in 3D

Outline

Liquid Crystal Displays (LCDs) Cost reductions from increases in

scale of LCD substrates 3D LCD displays Organic light emitting diode

(OLED) displays Electronic Paper Holographic displays

OLEDs have Some Advantages over LCDs and their Sales are Growing

Made of organic (Carbon based) materials that emit light when electricity runs through them

Fewer layers make them thinner, potentially cheaper

Flexibility comes from organic materials and thinness

Multiple colors can be roll printed onto a substrate, making them potentially cheaper than that of LCDs

Scaling up roll-to roll printing will also reduce costs

Other Advantages of OLEDs:Response Time, Viewing Angle, Grey

ScaleUnits AMOLED CCFL LED Edge LED Full Difference

Luminance cd/m2 NoneBrightness cd/m2 Power

Contrast Ratio (CR) 1000:1 5000:1 6M:1 Dark Images

Ambient Contrast Ratio @ 125 Lux ~1000:1 >2,000:1 >2,000:1 >2,000:1

High Lux

Black Levels cd/m2 <0.001 0.8 0.1 0.05 Dark ImagesViewing Angles CR 100% 3DResponse Time ms 0.001 5 3 3 Fast Moving

Gray Scale PerformanceAll Gray Scales

Movies

Frame Rate Hz None42" Power Consumption W 30 ~120 ~80 ~60 15

Lifetime hrs to 1/2 luminance

50K to 100K

~60K ~70K ~70K Initial LCD

Differential Aging Yes Strength Image Sticking Some Strength

Form Factor mm 2 5 3 5Thinner

>240

Poor Lower Gray Scales

MinorNone

TFT LCD

SameOLED ~1.5X Brighter

20:1

Source: OLED Summit Preview, San Francisco, September 27-29 Barry Young, Young Market Research, February 18, 2013

Fewer Layers with OLEDs than with LCDs

LCD Complex structure Passes through light and thus

requires separate light source and color filters

OLED Simple structure Makes its own

light

Many of them are Flexible

What About a Wrist Display?

Can it conform to your wrist using right materials?

Much better than a smart watch

Flexibility Comes from New Materials (e.g., organic ones) and Thinner Ones

Moving to polymers requires low permeation rates, highertransparencies, and low cost.

OLEDs Still Lag LEDs in Efficiency

Subsequentimprovementshave occurred(see slides on lighting)

• Average life span of 30,000 hours, half of LCD TVs 60,000 hours

• a few molecules of oxygen or

moisture can kill display so need better encapsulation (ink jet printing of coating?)

• OLED displays are given blue tint to offset faster degradation of blue

• Adding touch is also problem because indium tin oxide is brittle and will crack in touch display; can carbon nano-tubes solve this problem? Source: http://www.differencebetween.info/node/707http://www.technologyreview.com/news/529991/bendable-displays-are-finally-headed-to-market/

Another Problem for OLEDs in TVs is Lifespan

Source: http://www.hdtvinfo.eu/news/hdtv-articles/oled-tv-estimated-lifespan-shorter-then-expected.html (2008 data)

Another Problem is High Price/Cost, but falling

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32" 1080p CCFL 32" 1080 LED Edge 32" 1080 LED Back

32" OLED 1920 x 1080 OLED Premium vs. Edge OLED Premium vs. Back


Costs Fall as Substrate Sizes get Bigger

2007 730x920

2011


New Techniques Required to Scale Process

Making finely patterned sub-pixels with small molecule material requires use of vacuum thermal evaporation using a fine metal mask

Size limits are defined the sagging of the mask

To achieve > 200 ppi, AMOLEDs utilize Pentile technology, which reduces pixel size from 3 sub- pixels to 2 sub-pixels/pixel. To scale beyond ½ 4th Gen, VTE must be changed from positioning the substrate horizontally to holding vertically as implemented by Tokki, Ulvac, Sunic and AMAT

New approaches include the use of CNT by Unidym and nanowires by CambriosSource: OLED Summit Preview, San Francisco, September 27-29 Barry Young, Young Market Research, February 18, 2013

Other Patterning Options Being Tried

Alternative approaches include: Polymers and small molecule in solution which can be

printed Laser induced thermal imaging (LITI) as developed by 3M

and SMD Eliminating patterning by using white material with a color

filter The most likely for the Gen 5.5 is vertically held

substrates Beyond Gen 5.5 some form of printing will be

required Ink Jet – Panasonic, Epson Slot – DuPont Roll to roll process – VTT, Fraunhofer


Many Believe Roll-to Roll Printing will Lead to Dramatically Lower Costs

Vacuum deposition of metals, dielectrics, & semiconductors

5μ

Multiple mask levels imprinted as single 3D structure

Patterning completed w/ wet & dry processes

deposition imprint etch

deposit

spin resist

align/expose

develop

strip/clean

etch

deposit etchimprint

etchmask

Conventional Photo-Lithography SAIL

http://www.hpl.hp.com/techreports/2011/HPL-2011-152.pdf

(Roll printing)

http://www.hpl.hp.com/techreports/2011/HPL-2011-152.pdf

A Roll of Rolled OLEDshttp://deviceguru.com/euro-project-slashes-flexible-display-costs/

Konica is constructing a flexible OLED lighting R2R fab with amonthly capacity of 1 million panels. Production will start in fall of 2014 http://www.oled-info.com/tags/technical-

research/frontplane/roll-roll

Outline Cathode Ray Tube Liquid Crystal Displays (LCDs) Cost reductions from increases in scale of



LCD+ Full color- Harder on the eyes+ Can display video (movies)- Takes more power (battery doesn’t last as long)+ Backlit, so you can read in the dark- Hard to read outdoors or in bright sunlight

Early e-Ink- Black & white+ Easy on the eyes; like paper- Can’t display full video+ Takes very little power (battery lasts longer)- Can’t be read in the dark (like a regular book)+ Easy to read outdoors, the more light the better+ Very crisp and sharp

E-Ink has advantages for reading

That Become Obvious When You Look at this Picture

Improvements in E-ink Electrophoretic Displays

Color is now available

E Ink Vizplex

1

E Ink Vizplex 2

E Ink Pearl

E Ink Triton

E Ink Spectr

a

E Ink Carta

Announcement Year

2006 2007 2010 2010 2013 2013

Cost $70 (estimated )Based on Sory prs

500: $350

$60 (Estimated )Based on Sony prs

505: $300

$30.5 (2011)

Sony prs T1: $150

$26Based on

Sory pr-t2: $130

Color/Greyscale

4-level gray scale

8 level gray scale

16 levels of gray

16 shades of gray,

4096 colors

2-bit (B/W/R)

Contrast

7:1 10:1 10:1 15:1 15:1

Refresh Rate

• 1200ms• 500ms for 1 bit mode

• 740ms for grayscale• 260 ms for 1-bit mode

• 600 ms for grayscale • 120 ms for 1 bit mode

• 120ms - 980ms,

• 120 ms

Resolution

•170 dpi 600 × 800

•170 dpi• 600 × 800

•Up to 300 dpi 600x800

•200 dpi•768x1024

•(212 ppi) 1024 x 758

•> 300 dpi•768x1024

And Costs of Color Displays are Falling

7” diagonal display has 0.15 cm2 area

$426 per m2, much less than LCD

Will this make Wall Displays Economically Feasible?

Another option for a Smart Watch?

The CST-01, the thinnest watch in the world, is less than 1mm thick and weighs less than 5 pennies.

Outline

Cathode Ray Tube Liquid Crystal Displays (LCDs) Cost reductions from increases in scale of



Holographic Systems

Present a real 3D image LCD-based 3D systems present an “illusion”

of three dimensions Time-Sequential 3D with active 3D Glasses Auto-Stereoscopic Displays

Holographic Systems present a real 3D image and thus one that can be more aesthetically appealing

Hologram in Star Wars

A Better Hologram in Total Recall

How About a Hologram for a Phone Key Pad?If it is a Hologram?

A Little Different – But How about Projectinga Display onto ones Hand?

This can be done with a Pico-Projector in a Samsung Phonehttp://www.engadget.com/2010/02/15/samsung-beam-halo-hands-on/

This was done in Total Recall

Back to Holograms……..

Source: MT5009 group in 2011

Looking at Light Source and Holographic Media in more Detail: The Film/Media Records both the Reference and Object Beams

http://www.holostar.com/Frame1.html

Source: MT5009 group in 2011

When might such a system become technically and economically feasible for some application and some set of users?

Conclusions and Relevant Questions for Your Projects (1)

New displays continue to emerge and experience improvements New materials that better exploit the relevant

physical phenomena (e.g., materials for OLEDs that have higher luminosity per Watt or longer lifetime)

Falling costs from increases in the scale of substrates and production equipment

Improvements in components for holographic displays

Improvements in frame rate and pixel density for 3D displays

Conclusions and Relevant Questions for Your Projects (2)

How many further improvements are likely to occur? When will their costs become low enough or

performance high enough to be economical for specific applications?

Can we identify those applications, the order in which they will become economical, and the specific needs of each application?

What about higher-level systems; can we identify ones that might become economically feasible due to improvements in displays and other “components”?

What kinds of analyses can help us answer these questions?

New forms of displays: when will they become economically feasible?

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