1. A/Prof Jeffrey Funk Division of Engineering and Technology Management National University of Singapore For information on other technologies, see http://www.slideshare.net/Funk98/presentations

2. Objectives What are the important dimensions of performance for energy storage devices and higher- level systems? What are the rates of improvement? What drives these rapid rates of improvement? Will these improvements continue? What kinds of new higher-level systems will likely emerge from the improvements in energy storage devices? What does this tell us about the future? 3. Session Technology 1 Objectives and overview of course 2 Two types of improvements: 1) Creating materials that better exploit physical phenomena; 2) Geometrical scaling 4 Semiconductors, ICs, electronic systems 5 MEMS and Bio-electronic ICs 6 Nanotechnology and DNA sequencing 7 Superconductivity and solar cells 8 Lighting and Displays (also roll-to roll printing) 9 Human-computer interfaces 10 Telecommunications and Internet 11 Energy Storage, Wind Turbines and 3D Printing This is Part of the Eleventh Session of MT5009 4. Creating materials (and their associated processes) that better exploit physical phenomenon Geometrical scaling Increases in scale Reductions in scale Some technologies directly experience improvements while others indirectly experience them through improvements in components As Noted in Previous Session, Two main mechanisms for improvements A summary of these ideas can be found in 1) forthcoming paper in California Management Review, What Drives Exponential Improvements? 2) book from Stanford University Press, Technology Change and the Rise of New Industries 5. Creating materials (and their associated processes) that better exploit physical phenomena; finding/creating materials that have higher energy and power storage densities are easy to fabricate Geometrical scaling To what extent will increases in scale of production equipment lead to lower costs? What about nano-scale batteries? Some technologies directly experience improvements while others indirectly experience them through improvements in components Better energy storage devices lead to better electric vehicles Better power integrated circuits lead to electrification of vehicles Both are Relevant to Energy Storage for Vehicles 6. Outline Importance of Energy/Power Density Energy/Power Storage Density Batteries Flywheels Capacitors Electrification of Vehicles How can electric vehicles be implemented? My vision for the future of transportation 7. A Key Issue is Energy (and Power) Densities Why is this important? When will batteries have similar levels of energy density as gasoline? 1 megajoule = 0.28 kwH MegaJoulesPerLiter MegaJoules Per Kg 8. Cognitive Biases Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahneman People assess relative importance of issues, including new technologies by ease of retrieving from memory largely determined by extent of coverage in media E.g., media talks about solar, wind, battery-powered vehicles, bio-fuels and thus many think they have rapid rates of improvement - but only some are Second, judgments and decisions are guided directly by feelings of liking and disliking One person invested in Ford because he liked their products but was Ford stock undervalued? Many people like some technologies and dislike others without considering rates of improvement Source: Daniel Kahneman, Thinking Fast and Slow, 2011 http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/19/opinion/kohn-flight-370- obsession/index.html?iid=article_sidebar 9. High Energy Densities Are obviously important for vehicles The vehicle must carry the fuel The fuel must have a certain level of energy density before the vehicle can move (what about a solar helicopter?) But also important for all energy technologies Higher energy/power density of engines leads to better fuel efficiency for automobiles, aircraft, ships Even for stationary engines, higher energy/power densities often lead to lower costs per output since costs are often related to size 10. Storage type Specific energy (MJ/kg) Indeterminate matter and antimatter 89,876,000,000 * Deuterium-tritium fusion 576,000,000 Uranium-235 used in nuclear weapons 88,250,000 Natural uranium (99.3% U-238, 0.7% U-235) in fast breeder reactor 86,000,000 Reactor-grade uranium (3.5% U-235) in light water reactor 3,456,000 30% Pu-238 -decay 2,200,000 Hf-178m2 isomer 1,326,000 Natural uranium (0.7% U235) in light water reactor 443,000 30% Ta-180m isomer 41,340 Even Higher Energy Densities Exist Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density *about 4740 kg of antimatter could have supplied humans with all their energy needs in 2008. for more information on anti-matter, see Michio Kaku, Physics of the Impossible, New York: Doubleday, 2008 11. Another way to look at energy density: This is from the perspective of land Source: Vaclav Smil 12. Source: (Koh and Magee, 2008) Improvements in Power Density of Engines (per weight) 13. Outline Importance of Energy/Power Density Energy/Power Storage Density Batteries Flywheels Capacitors Electrification of Vehicles How can electric vehicles be implemented? My vision for the future of transportation 14. Source: Koh and Magee, 2008 Improvements in Energy Storage Density (per weight) 1 megajoule = 0.28 kwH 15. Improvements in Energy Storage Density (per volume) Source: Koh and Magee, 2008 16. Source: Koh and Magee, 2005 Improvements in Energy Storage (per cost) 17. Improvements in Energy Storage Density Batteries have experienced a very slow rate of improvement 30 times in 120 years Much slower than found with most electronic technologies such as integrated circuits Li-ion batteries have the highest densities per volume and volume, but not per cost Flywheels have a similar level of storage density as batteries Capacitors are experiencing a faster rate of improvement than are flywheels and batteries, but are behind batteries and flywheels Key questions Can these rates of improvement be accelerated or even maintained? Which one will win? 18. Outline Importance of Energy/Power Density Energy/Power Storage Density Batteries Flywheels Capacitors Electrification of Vehicles How can electric vehicles be implemented? My vision for the future of transportation 19. Source: Tarascon, J. 2009. Batteries for Transportation Now and In the Future, presented at Energy 2050, Stockholm, Sweden, October 19-20. 20. Lithium-Ion Batteries Rate of improvement is rather slow (5% per year) A doubling in 15 years Much slower than ICs (doubling every 18-24 months) Most recent announcement (271 Wh/kg Li-ion battery in October 2013) is consistent with rate of improvement shown in previous slide At current rates of improvement, it will take 70 years before batteries have the same level as gasoline Can this rate of improvement be increased or even maintained? By focusing on radical new materials? Or materials completely different from lithium-ion? Or maybe we should look for a new solution? http://www.nec.com/en/press/201310/global_20131001_03.html 21. Radical New Materials Might Enable a Doubling of Energy Density Source: Nexergy 22. Source: Tarascon, J , 2010. Key Challenges in future Li-battery research. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society 368: 3227-3241 But this Doubling Might Take a Long Time 23. What about Sodium Batteries? http://phys.org/news/2013-09-sodium-ion-battery-cathode-highest-energy.html Power Density Higher densities than for Li-ion batteries Seoul National University announced 600 Wh/kg in September 2013 But densities quickly decrease with charging and discharging 24. What About Batteries that Benefit from Reductions in Scale Thin-film ones that benefit from geometric scaling in the same that solar cells do Nano-scale ones While conventional batteries separate the two electrodes by thick barrier, nano-scale batteries place the electrodes close to each other with nano- wires and other nano-devices By reducing the diameter of the electrode or catalyst particles, the ratio of surface area-to volume goes up and thus the rate of exchange between particles increases Remember the discussion of nano-technology where surface area- to volume ratio was emphasized Some technologies or phenomena benefit from increases in this ratio Sources: 1) Economist, 2011. The power of the press. January 20, 2011, p. 73; 2) Scientists Reveal Battery Behavior at the Nanoscale, Science News, September 15, 2010, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/09/100914151043.htm. 3) Building Better Batteries from the Nanoscale Up, Scientific computing, http://www.scientificcomputing. com/news-DS-Building-Better-Batteries-from-the-Nanoscale -Up- 121010.aspx, 25. What About Costs? Lithium-ion batteries are more expensive than lead acid batteries Can the costs of lithium-ion batteries be reduced on a storage density per cost basis? Some argue that the costs will fall as the scale of production is increased (Lowe, M, Tokuoka, S, Trigg, T, Gereffi, G 2010. Lithium-ion Batteries for Electric Vehicles, Center on Globalization, Governance & Competitiveness, Duke University, October 5) Although large volumes for portable electronic application, lithium-ion batteries for cars are different from those for electronic products Also currently have lower production volumes and higher costs Perhaps higher volumes and thus larger scale production equipment will improve the economics of electric vehicles 26. Outline Importance of Energy/Power Density Energy/Power Storage Density Batteries Flywheels Capacitors Electrification of Vehicles How can electric vehicles be implemented? My vision for the future of transportation 27. http://www.intechopen.com/books/dynamic-modelling/dynamic-modelling-and-control-design-of-advanced-energy- storage-for-power-system-applications For Flywheels: Energy = F(MV2) 28. http://www.flybridsystems.com/flywheeltech.html 29. http://physics.technion.ac.il/~rutman/jeremy's%20seminar.html Flywheels vs. Other Types of Energy Storage in terms of Power and Energy Densities 30. Flywheels (1) Compared to lithium-ion batteries Power Densities are higher for flywheels But energy densities are slightly larger for batteries Particularly relevant for hybrid vehicles twice as much energy is converted during braking than with batteries This is probably why they are used in Formula One Cars But can they diffuse to other types of automobiles? Source: The Economist Technology Quarterly, December 3, 2011 31. Flywheels (2) Rate of improvement is steeper with flywheels than batteries Energy is function of mass times velocity squared for flywheels, stronger materials (carbon fiber) enable higher speeds What about carbon nanotubes? Their high strength to weight ratios mean they can spin very fast Superconducting bearings, higher voltages from better power electronics are also source of improvements What about cost? price per storage of batteries? One challenge is reliability with required vacuums Source: The Economist Technology Quarterly, December 3, 2011 32. Source: Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 11(2007): 235-258 High strength to weight ratios and thus high energy densities for some rotor materials 33. Carbon Nanotubes or Graphene Carbon nanotubes and/or graphene enable even higher velocities Since CNTs have strength to weight ratios 15 times higher and graphene has ones 30 times higher than do carbon fiber (approximately), energy storage densities of 120,000 kJ/kg or 33.6 kWh per kilogram may be possible with graphene This energy density is about 15-30 times higher than is currently available from lithium-ion batteries Source: Presentation by my students on April 11, 2013. Slides can be found on http://www.slideshare.net/Funk98/presentations 34. Outline Importance of Energy/Power Density Energy/Power Storage Density Batteries Flywheels Capacitors Electrification of Vehicles How can electric vehicles be implemented? My vision for the future of transportation 35. Capacitors Much lower energy densities than for batteries, but higher power densities (but not as high as flywheels) Energy density is a function of Capacitance Voltage squared Improvement efforts focus on new materials (mostly carbon now) such as Double layer carbon capacitors Pseudo capacitors (many exotic variables) Hybrid (asymetric) capacitors 36. Source: Naoi K and Simon P, 2008, New Materials and New Configurations for Advanced Electrochemical Capacitors; The Electrochemical Society Interface, Spring 17(1): 34-37. 37. Source: Naoi and Simon, 2008 38. http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/122763-graphene-supercapacitors-are-20-times-as-powerful-can- be-made-with-a-dvd-burner 39. But Most Commercialized Ultracapacitors are Made from Carbon which have lower energy densities than other materials Source: Andrew Burke, Proceedings of the IEEE 95(4): 806-820, 2007. 40. High Surface to Volume Ratios Are important for many things (remember the session on nanotechnology) They are also relevant for capacitors Ruthenium-based capacitors also use thin sheets to achieve higher surface-to volume ratios Carbon nanotubes have high surface to volume ratios and thus high capacitance 41. Outline Importance of Energy/Power Density Energy/Power Storage Density Batteries Flywheels Capacitors Electrification of Vehicles How can electric vehicles be implemented? My vision for the future of transportation 42. Electrification of Vehicles (1) Its not just the addition of an energy storage devices; electrical controls are replacing mechanical controls for water and oil pumps, radiator cooling fans steering systems, brakes, throttles, shock absorbers The next great step, which has already occurred in locomotives, large trucks, and aircraft Electric drive trains will replace the gearbox, driveshaft, differential They have higher power densities and are more reliable than drives that rely on shafts, gears, belts, and hydraulic fluids 43. More general source: Peter Huber, Mark Mills, 2006, The Bottomless Well: The Twilight of Fuel, the Virtue of Waste, and Why We Will Never Run Out of Energy 44. http://cesa-automotive-electronics.blogspot.sg/2012/09/dual-voltage-power-supply-system-with.html 45. Electrification of Vehicles (2) Part of the trend towards electrical controls are being driven by improvements in semiconductors Electrical controls use semiconductors Power semiconductors experience improvements each year as do integrated circuits (ICs) but not to the extent of microprocessors and memory Electrical controls reduces cost and weight of vehicle The latter also reduces the necessary energy storage capacity of the batteries, flywheels, or capacitors Sources: http://www.manhattan-institute.org/html/eper_07.htm and The Bottomless Well: The Twilight of Fuel, the Virtue of Waste, and Why We Will Never Run Out of Energy, Peter Huber and Mark P. Mills 46. IGBT: Insulated-gate bipolar transistor GTO: Gate turn off thyristor 47. Source: http://www.embedded.com/design/components-and-packaging/4371098/New-power-semiconductor-technologies- challenge-assembly-and-system-setups Reductions in Voltages (and thus Resistances) for same Current (and thus area and cost) for IGBTs (Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistor) 48. Source: http://www.embedded.com/design/components-and-packaging/4371098/New-power-semiconductor-technologies- challenge-assembly-and-system-setups Reductions in Resistance and thus Area (and costs) for MOSFETS 49. What can we Conclude about Electrification of Vehicles? It is going to happen very soon Much faster than doubling of energy storage densities Electrification will reduce weight of vehicle and thus necessary size of the energy storage It also facilitates vehicles working with smart grid Smart grids are being rapidly implemented Electrical grid is being combined with the Internet What other automotive technology will likely be deployed before energy storage densities are doubled? What are the implications for electric vehicles and energy usage by vehicles in general? 50. Outline Importance of Energy/Power Density Energy/Power Storage Density Batteries Flywheels Capacitors Electrification of Vehicles How can electric vehicles be implemented? My vision for the future of transportation 51. Many Ways to Do This 1) Electric vehicle with same range and acceleration as gasoline engines Low energy and power storage densities of batteries, capacitors, and flywheels make this difficult to achieve 2) Use both gasoline and electric storage, i.e., hybrid Very expensive to include both Most users choose vehicles based on price 3) All electric but with low capacity electric storage and many fast/rapid charging stations Use flywheels since they have high power densities? Use high voltages for rapid charging? Use wireless charging? 52. Many Fast Charging Stations Utilities sell high voltage electricity to parking garages, other parking places, and other companies that provide users with rapid charging Cars can also be charged wirelessly (getting cheaper through advances in power electronics) GPS enables cars to know where they are going, when they will arrive and thus how to find and reserve a charger Falling weight of vehicles, driven by replacement of mechanical with electric controls, also facilitates move towards low capacity electric storage in vehicles Eventually charging may be done when vehicles are stopped at traffic lights, or moving on highways Source: http://www.manhattan-institute.org/html/eper_07.htm 53. Cost of charging station? Rate of charging? How much more expensive for fast charging? Is wireless cheaper or faster? Performance and Cost of Charging Stations 54. Can Higher Efficiencies be Achieved in Wireless Charging? Can we charge vehicles while they move? Source: Wireless Charging for Smartphone, MT5009 group presentation 55. Outline Importance of Energy/Power Density Energy/Power Storage Density Batteries Flywheels Capacitors Electrification of Vehicles How can electric vehicles be implemented? My vision for the future of transportation 56. My Vision of the Future Most people will live in cities Public transportation becomes better through better information GPS and thus accurate locations for buses Smart phones (improved interface) for better info on buses, MRT Less breakdowns through better sensors Highways and roads dedicated to autonomous vehicles (falling cost of lasers, ICs) Most autonomous vehicles will be rented via smart phones Most rented vehicles will be small (single person) and light (electrification) Most vehicles will be electric with frequent charging at rapid charging stations Wireless charging on roads and highways? Superconducting cables for highways? 57. Conclusions, Relevant Questions for Group Projects Energy and power storage densities are important Energy storage densities of batteries, flywheels and capacitors are much lower than for gasoline Rates of improvements are also fairly slow Can these rates of improvements be accelerated? Are their radical new materials that will enable much higher energy and power densities? How can we find these materials? Maybe we should admit that improvements wont be made and devise new types of vehicular systems 58. Conclusions, Relevant Questions(2) Many more choices for energy storage than are ordinarily presented Even these slides dont consider all the possible choices But focusing on rates of improvement gives us better information than do current methods Media focuses on hybrid vehicles, when it should be focusing on the low storage densities of these batteries slow rates of improvement other choices, of which there are many 59. Appendix 60. IGBT: insulated gate bipolar transistor; MCU: microprocessor control unit Vehicle electrification drive trends in power semiconductors, Kevin Anderson, July 12, 2011, Freescale Are the improvements in these devices sufficient? 61. FET: field-effect transistor; WBG: wide-band gap semiconductor such as SiC Vehicle electrification drive trends in power semiconductors, Kevin Anderson, July 12, 2011, Freescale Maybe Wide Band Gap Semiconductors can enable the necessary improvements? 62. http://www.semicon.toshiba.co.jp/eng/product/transistor/mos/hvmos.html 9.2%/year Lower Resistance Leads to Smaller and Cheaper Power Electronics 63. http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1272514 New Materials Have Even Lower Resistance (and higher breakdown voltages) 64. http://iopscience.iop.org/0268-1242/28/7/074012/article#fnref-sst455286bib22 65. http://electronicdesign.com/power/improved-power-ics-give- supply-designers-more-bang-buck 66. Daniel Kahneman, Thinking Fast and Slow An individual has been described by a neighbor as follows: Steve is very shy and withdrawn, invariably helpful but with little interest in people or in the world of reality. A meek and tidy soul, he has a need for order and structure and a passion for detail. Is Steve more likely to be a librarian or a farmer? 67. Daniel Kahneman Many years ago I visited the chief investment officer of a large financial firm, who told me that he had just invested some tens of millions of dollars in the stock of Ford Motor Company. When I asked how he had made that decision, he replied that the had recently attended an automobile show and had been impressed. Boy, do they know how to make a car! was his explanation. He made it very clear that he trusted his gut feeling and was satisfied with himself and with his decision. 68. Researchers at Rice University have come up with a new way to boost the efficiency of the ubiquitous lithium ion (LI) battery by employing ribbons of graphene that start as carbon nanotubes. Proof-of-concept anodes the part of the battery that stores lithium ions built with graphene nanoribbons (GNRs) and tin oxide showed an initial capacity better than the theoretical capacity of tin oxide alone, according to Rice chemist James Tour. After 50 charge-discharge cycles, the test units retained a capacity that was still more than double that of the graphite currently used for LI battery anodes. In the new experiments, the Rice lab mixed graphene nanoribbons and tin oxide particles about 10 nanometers wide in a slurry with a cellulose gum binder and a bit of water, spread it on a current collector and encased it in a button-style battery. GNRs are a single atom thick and thousands of times longer than they are wide. The GNRs not only separate and support the tin oxide but also help deliver lithium ions to the nanoparticles. Lab tests showed initial charge capacities of more than 1,520 milliamp hours per gram (mAh/g). Over repeated charge-discharge cycles, the material settled into a solid 825 mAh/g. It took about two months to go through 50 cycles, said lead author Jian Lin, a postdoctoral researcher at Rice, who believes it could handle many more without losing significant capacity. GNRs could also help overcome a prime difficulty with LI battery development. Lithium ions tend to expand the material they inhabit, and the material contracts when theyre pulled away. Over time, materials like silicon, which shows extraordinary capacity for lithium, break down and lose their ability to store ions. http://nextbigfuture.com/search?updated-max=2013-06-14T16:50:00-07:00&max-results=7&start=70&by-date=false How About Graphene Based Batteries? 69. Recently developed capacitor had energy density of 16Wh/kg (100 times less than Li) power density of 10 kW/kg (as high as flywheels) 40-Farads and maximum voltage of 3.5 V On basis of accelerated tests, a 16-year lifetime was forecast But too expensive! Source: carbon nanotubes: present and future commercial applications, Michael De Volder et al, Science 339(535): 535-539 To what extent can further improvements be made? Carbon NanoTubes for Capacitors 70. Monash researchers have developed a completely new strategy to engineer graphene-based supercapacitors (SC) with the energy density of lead batteries, making them viable for widespread use in renewable energy storage, portable electronics and electric vehicles. The energy density of 60 Watt-hours per litre - comparable to lead-acid batteries and around 12 times higher than commercially available SCs. Science - Liquid-Mediated Dense Integration of Graphene Materials for Compact Capacitive Energy Storage Porous yet densely packed carbon electrodes with high ion-accessible surface area and low ion transport resistance are crucial to the realization of high-density electrochemical capacitive energy storage but have proved to be very challenging to produce. Taking advantage of chemically converted graphenes intrinsic microcorrugated two-dimensional configuration and self-assembly behavior, we show that such materials can be readily formed by capillary compression of adaptive graphene gel films in the presence of a nonvolatile liquid electrolyte. This simple soft approach enables subnanometer scale integration of graphene sheets with electrolytes to form highly compact carbon electrodes with a continuous ion transport network. Electrochemical capacitors based on the resulting films can obtain volumetric energy densities approaching 60 watt-hours per liter. http://nextbigfuture.com/2013_07_28_archive.html 71. http://www.cpes.vt.edu/public/nugget/2013_D1.7.php 72. http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1272514 73. http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1272514 74. http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1272514 75. http://www.i-micronews.com/reports/Power-GaN-2012/3/170/