Autonomous vehicles: becoming economically feasible through improvements in lasers, MEMs, and ICs

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Transcript of Autonomous vehicles: becoming economically feasible through improvements in lasers, MEMs, and ICs

  • MT5009 Hi-Tech Opportunities

    Autonomous Vehicles

    Tay Hong Chuan Liang Hong Yao Lin Lin Ho Kum Wah Huub van Esbroeck

  • Contents 1. Introduction to Autonomous Vehicles

    2. Essential Technologies

    1. GPS 2. Lidar 3. Radar 4. Video 5. Ultrasound

    3. The Future: Driverless Fleets Vehicle-to-vehicle interaction 4. System Integration CPU and Broadband Requirements 5. Entrepreneurial Opportunities

    evaluation of cost and performance parameters

  • Introduction

    What are Autonomous Vehicles?

    Self-driving cars with sensors able to observe and understand surroundings

    Google driveless car estimated cost USD$150,000 (Year 2012)

  • Introduction

    Ref: http://www.carloan4u.co.uk/infographics/the-ultimate-car-of-the-future/

  • Benefits of Autonomous Car

    Ref: http://www.carloan4u.co.uk/infographics/the-ultimate-car-of-the-future/ Google, US NHTSA, AAA, Texas A&M Transportation Institute, Columbia University Earth Institute and Devils Advocate Groups analysis

    Googles Aspiration

    Potential Annual Benefits (US only)

    90% reduction in ACCIDENTS

    4.95 million fewer accidents 30,000 fewer deaths 2 million fewer injuries $400 billion saving in cost

    90% reduction WASTED COMMUTING

    4.8 billion fewer commuting hours 1.9 billion gallons in fuel savings $101 billion saved in lost productivity and fuel cost

    90% reduction in CARS

    Reduce cost per trip-mile by 80%+ Car utilization from 5-10% to 75%+ Better land use.

  • Google Car Oxford Robot Car

    Ionut Budisteanu

    Mobil Eye C2-270

    MuCAR-3

    Drive-assist system cost

    USD 130,000 USD 7,500 USD 4,000 USD 749 N.A.

    Level of Autonomy

    High Medium Medium Low High

    Key Components

    GPS, 3D Lidar Computation software

    2D Lidar, Prior knowledge

    Low-end 3D Lidar, Webcam supervisor program

    Mono camera, System-on-chip

    Multifocal camera, 360 Lidar

    Ref: http://www.driverless-future.com/?p=400 Ref: http://www.mobileye.com/blog/press-room/products-press-room/mobileye-announces-new-c2-series-solution-and-previews-new-technologies/

    Autonomous Systems Comparison

  • Technology: GPS GPS Lidar Radar Video Ultrasound

    How GPS Works

    Space segment - composed of GPS

    satellites that transmit time & position

    in the form of radio signals to the user

    Control segment - composed of all the

    ground-based facilities that are used to

    monitor and control the satellites

    User segment - consists of the users & GPS receivers

  • Technology: GPS GPS Lidar Radar Video Ultrasound

    Acc

    ura

    cy

    Ref: http://www.gps.gov

    Accuracy

  • Technology: GPS GPS Lidar Radar Video Ultrasound

    Ref: Federal Aviation Administration

    FAA data collected in early 2011 shows that the horizontal accuracy of GPS SPS is often within ~ 1 meter

    Ref

    eren

    ce: G

    PS

    in A

    ero

    spac

    e

    Reference: GPS in Aerospace By hypothesis, the car accuracy in 2020 may be within < 50cm Using Nationalwide Differential

    GPS System ~ 10 to 15cm

  • Technology: GPS GPS Lidar Radar Video Ultrasound

    GPS Cost Benefits

    GP

    S C

    ost

    Ben

    efit

    s GPS Accuracy

    Fuel consumption

    Accident rate

    Insurance premium

    Conditions Maintain same fuel price General road conditions

    Factors

    Time

    Enable potential

    cost saving over time

    Cost

  • Technology: Lidar GPS Lidar Radar Video Ultrasound

    Non-contact technology Sense the physical appearance,

    speed and distance of objects through laser.

    Software transforms the data into 3D representation of objects in real time

    Mobile Mapping System GPS: geo-referencing, motion

    sensor optional Laser: range finding, property

    evaluation Software: post-processing, map

    construction.

    Lidar is uniquely suited to , surveys

    1-1000m distance Mm to cm accuracy

    Ref: Audi's sensors include radar, lidar, camera, and adaptive cruise-control (source: Audi)

  • Technology: Lidar

    Acc

    ura

    cy

    GPS Lidar Radar Video Ultrasound

    Ref: Stanfords car Junior. http://www.photonics.com/Article.aspx?AID=44539

  • Technology: Lidar GPS Lidar Radar Video Ultrasound

    Component Cost: Laser

    Ref: Global Markets for Laser Systems, Components & Materials -- Focus on the Americas published by BCC Research on January 1, 2012

    Ref: http://www.toptica.com/products/ultrafast_fiber_lasers/technology.html

    Ref: http://www.industrial-lasers.com/articles/print/volume-27/issue-1/features/2011-annual-economic-review-and-forecast.html

  • Technology: Lidar GPS Lidar Radar Video Ultrasound

    Component Cost: Inertial Sensor

    Ref: Technology Trends for Inertial MEMS, market & technology report Jan 2012

    Ref: IC Insights - Market Analysis and Forecast for Optoelectronics, Sensors/Actuators, and Discretes, May 2013

  • Technology: Lidar GPS Lidar Radar Video Ultrasound

    Ref: CURRENT AND FUTURE HIGH VOLUME "KILLER" AUTOMOTIVE APPLICATIONS OF MICROSYSTEMS TECHNOLOGY (MST) By Roger H. Grace, President, Roger Grace Associates

  • Technology: Lidar GPS Lidar Radar Video Ultrasound

    Basis Software Surphaser

    FARO Photon DI3D/DI4D Kreon Zephyr Mantis Visions F5

    Image

    Price Range ($)

    90k-150k 90k-120k 20k-140k 60k-75k 45k-60k

    Accuracy/Range

    0.2mm/adjustable

    6.35mm/Long 0.5mm 0.02mm 0.5mm/0-1m

    Key Features

    360x270; 800k pt/sec; Ideal for large objects;

    Large-vol scan; 3mm error @10m

    Camera; Full-color; 21 Mega pixel/imag

    Digitizer; High-precision

    Handheld; high res.; Motion-sensitive.

    Ref: http://www.dirdim.com/prod_laserscanners.htm

  • Technology: Lidar GPS Lidar Radar Video Ultrasound

    Ref: http://www.lidarnews.com/content/view/8877/206/ Ref: http://www.faro.com/products/3d-surveying/laser-scanner-faro-focus-3d/features#main Ref: http://www.primesense.com/developers/get-your-sensor/ Ref: http://mashable.com/2013/01/03/worlds-smallest-3d-motion-sensor/

    PrimeSense 3D Sensor

    Cost: $200

    Worlds Smallest 3D sensor

    Range: 0.35 3.5 m

    Accuracy: a few centimeters

    Color, audio, USB support

    Employed by Kinect for gaming, by MIT for robot.

    FARO Focus 3D Laser Scanner

    Cost: $30,000 to $40,000

    976,000 pt/sec

    Range: 0.6 -330m

    Accuracy 2mm

    Height sensor, Compass, dual axis compensator

    GPS synchronization

  • Technology: Lidar GPS Lidar Radar Video Ultrasound

    Velodyne Lidar: HDL-32E Cost: $29,900 (half of HDL-64E)

    32 laser scanner pairs; 7000 pt/sec

    Compact size more applications

    Range: 1-100m; accuracy < 2cm

    Distance Reflectivity Angle

    Internal MEMS Motion sensing

    GPS synchronization

    Ibeo Valeo Joint Project Lidar Cost: $250, by 2014

    Accuracy < 1.5, at 200 yd

    In any weather

  • Technology: Radar GPS Lidar Radar Video Ultrasound

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

    we

    igh

    t (g

    ram

    s)

    Radar Sensor Weight (grams)

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140

    160

    1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

    An

    gle

    (d

    egr

    ee

    s)

    Radar Sensor Opening Angle (degrees)

    Ref: Bosch Press Release: http://www.bosch-presse.de/presseforum/details.htm?txtID=6242&locale=en

    opening angle

    Technology Improvements

  • Technology: Radar GPS Lidar Radar Video Ultrasound

    Larger Bandwidth Is required for better

    1. Range accuracy 2. Contour determination

    79GHz Project to allocate a broad band for automotive Short Range Radar applications

    Ref: Bandwidth Requirements for Future Safety and Comfort Applications, Markus Andres, Universitt Ulm

  • Technology: Radar GPS Lidar Radar Video Ultrasound

    Ref: European Commission D16.1 Report on interference density increase by market penetration forecast

    60%

  • Humans need two eyes to see the world in binocular vision, which enables us to calculate the object sizes, distances and perceive longitudinal motion. In recent years (2011 to 2013), stereo video camera system has been created and adopted by many leading car manufacturers, to give driver assistance systems the same capacity: a 3-dimentional view of the area in front of a vehicle

    Technology: Camera GPS Lidar Radar Camera Ultrasound

    Stereo Camera System

  • Technology: Camera GPS Lidar Radar Camera Ultrasound

    Mercedes-Benz S-Class Luxury Sedan Launched in 2013

    One of the most important development is the introduction on Stereo Camera Technology

    Highlights of the Stereo Camara in S-Class: - Price: $2,800 for option package of stereo cameras and radar; - Opening Angle: 45; - 3D view of the road ahead: 50m; - Total Range: 500m; - Autonomous emergency braking with pedestrian detection: up to 72km/h; - Data usage: 300gb per Hour - Distance / Height measurement Accuracy: 3 millimeters within 15m

  • Technology: Camera GPS Lidar Radar Camera Ultrasound

    CMOS Image Sensor Market Demand