Iseu efficiency april2011 final

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  • 1.Avril 9, 2011
    Sufficiency,
    from production to usage
    Frdric Chom
    Factor-Xthe Climate Consulting Group sprl
    ISEU Final meeting

2. (Free) ENERGY
The Skyis the limit
Really ?
2
Plenty of free lunches ahead of us !
3. World energy Consumption
Nuke
Hydro
Gas
Oil
Coal
2000-2050:
Energy x 3
Population x 1,5
1950 2000 :
Energy x 5
Population x 2
Les missions de CO2 provenant de combustibles fossiles
ont t multiplies par plus de 4 depuis 1950 (source AIE 2004)
4. Theres much more Energy than Oil
Reserves : 400+ Gtep
Consumption : 11 GTtep
If 2% growth
=> less than 100 years
5. Renewables : Not anfull-optionfor Europe
Green energypreservesitsmarketshare in a flat economy but NO increase !
Green energy =
of growth in energyneeds
1/3 of growth in Elecneeds
Over 1990 - 2007
141 Mtoe/year
7,8 % of primaryenergy
consumption
AVG +6 Mtoe / yr 2004-2007
+10 Mtoe 2006 & 2007
10 Mtoe/year
0.6 % of primaryenergy
Consumption
Source : Observatoire de lnergie, ADEME, CEREN
1807 Mtep/yearfor Gross Consumption
6. NegaWatt Plan :
The Energy Challenge
POLITICS
PRIORITY
Less
Better
(with the remaining)
Clean
(1/2 of actual
consumption)
Source: http://www.negawatt.org/
7. FromEnergy to GreenhouseGases Emissions :
1st Barrier
7
8. Flux Naturels
Atmosphre
Biosphre
Ocans
Lithosphre
Stocks et flux de carbone
Flux anthropiques
14 Gteq Carbone ou 51 Gteq CO2 par an
8
En milliards de tonnes de carbone par an
61,5
60
92
90
0,8
0,04
10+ Gteq Carbone non recycls annuellement
missions totales : 150 GtC
Squestration : 153.5 GtC
9. 350 ppm pour 80% de certitude < 2C
9
Source : Hansen & al.2009
Ce que demande la science
CO2 fossile : -85% till 2030
10. Country carbonfootprint
Easy to compute
but
partial referentials
10
11. UNFCCC Carbonfootprint :GHG Inventory
Belgium2007: 132 millions teqCO2
Electricity
Waste
Transports
Industry
Buildings
Agriculture
1 %
18 %
30 %
22 %
8 %
21 %
- 9%
Depuis 1990
- 15%
Depuis 1990
+ 20%
Depuis 1990
- 24%
Depuis 1990
+ 13%
Depuis 1990
- 12%
Depuis 1990
Carbon production in Belgium (approx)
Source :climat.be
Illustration : Pascal Vilcollet
12. How Much GHG in Belgiums GDPEn Belgique en 2008: 132,6 millions teqCO2
Source : climaterchange.be
Illustration : Pascal Vilcollet
X 5,7
161,1 millions teqCO2
752,3 millions teqCO2
nergie
Dchets
Transports
Industrie
Btiments
Agriculture
1 %
18 %
32 %
22 %
7 %
20 %
26,1 MtCO2eq
1,3 MtCO2eq
24,1 MtCO2eq
41,4 MtCO2eq
28,6 MtCO2eq
9,1 MtCO2eq
+21,5 %
+467 %
28,5 MtCO2eq
591,2 MtCO2eq
Source : Agence pour le commerce extrieur
Source : SPF conomie, brochure Transport 2009/10
Non Comptabiliss : transport routier international de marchandises Variations dues aux carburant dpenss ltranger par les vhicules lgers belges
13. EVOLUTION 1995 2010-11% ou +49 % ?
+49%
-11%
GHG increasequickerthan GDP !!!
Import/GDP
94%
46%
337
254
GDP Md
750
500
MTeqCO2
+33%
Non Comptabiliss : transport routier international de marchandises Variations dues aux carburant dpenss ltranger par les vhicules lgers belges
14. Partial referential
Strangepolitics
NO good decisions
Marginal operationalefficiency gains with no account of production & consumptionbehaviors
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15. 15
Centralized Intermittent Energy ;
WindMills production concentrated (few countries)
Environmental ROI : 6 years
Investors ROI :0,5 year
Green certificate bonus = 850 / tCO2 (avoided)
CO2 marketprice : 13 /tCO2
16. 8 to 10 years for construction GHG payback in Belgium
16
Financial ROI : 20%
GHG ROI : 10% max
But the system allows to decentraliseenergy production and to tend towardsenergysufficency for buildings
17. Making money withenergysavings ?
Bank savingsaccount : 2% return
Solar PV panels : 20% return do it for money

  • Energysavings return

18. Versus 560 eur / yearOf green certificates for
19. 18
Housingconstruction growth = 3 x population growth
Yearly new constructions < 1% of total existing constructions
Natural materials DO REALLY HELP to reduce the environmental impacts of the construction phase
Building = designed by an architect,
sometimeforgotten fluxes
Buildings CO2 = CO2 Building phase + Lifetime CO2Energy usages + Lifetime CO2Induced transport + CO2Demolition
Buildings CO2 = CO2/kWh x kWh/m2 x m2/resident xResidents/householdx Nb households+ Mobility of inhabitants
20. Bilan de travaux de construction et de rhabilitation
New buildings are 6 x more carbon intensive thanretrofit
45 years of earnings as pay-back of construction
Equiv. To building Lifetime
NO real gains
ImproveSavings (Commuting, energy,)
Reduce Construction impacts
Earnings/year
BEFORE
AFTER
21. 20
Transport GHG rose by 30% from 1990
Efficiency per km has been divided by 2 since 1990
+ Citizens
having
+ cars
Doingeach
+km
CO2 = CO2/km xkm/car x Nb cars/householdx Nb households
22. 21
Replacement effect: The better the performance, the longer youkeep the car
23. Grey GHG: 3.500 kg CO2e
Lifetimeenergy GHG : 1400 kg CO2e
NO global Efficiency
24. Lighting
All values in kg CO2e for 50.000 h in Belgium
ConventionalHalogen
Production :88
Use:521
TOTAL : 600
LED (Belgium)
Production : 6,2
Use: 91
TOTAL : 97,2
LED (China)
Production :30,5
Use:195
TOTAL : 225,5
25. Towards green Businesses
24
26. Relative vs. Absolute Decoupling
Business
Environmental impacts
Zero impact Growth
Relative Decoupling
Action plan
AbsoluteDecoupling
Time
Footprint t0
27. Green businesses?
26
Low Tech, LowCost

  • Local production for local markets

28. Inspiration fromDev. Countries 29. R activitiesRefuse, Reduce, reuse,, repair, repurpose, recycle, recover, respect, rethink, ,

  • Closedloopeconomy(shortage value)

30. PSS & Idlingcapacity 31. Shorter value chains , vertical integrationGreen =

  • New services, products

32. Alternative marketing 33. Alternative business models, pricing 34. New values, like TRUSTHigh Tech, Capital intensive

  • Renewableenergy production

35. Electric Transport 36. Alternative fuels 37. Dessalinisation 38. Green-IT (ECO-TIC) 39. Green Buildings 40. CarbonCredits, markets 41. Housingretrofit = jobs providerFinancial bubbles

  • Rawmaterials

42. Crops 43. fresh water 44. GroundGreen Economy 2.0
Small scale, slow, network, collaborative lifestyles,
Green = differentand cheaper
Min 90% of Marketshare
Green Economy 1.0
Large classical corporations,
Green = better and more expensive
max 10% of Marketshare
45. Initiating changes, evaluating risks
27
Product
id

New complementaryproductlines, close loops
Marginal gains : optimisation, efficiency
id
Job / Mission
New markets, service economy
New vision, mission & business models

46. 28
47. Money Money Money
Do not expect help fromothers.
Do it for yourself
29
48. 30
Source : climatechange.be ; statbel ; eex
CO2 marketPrices
CO2 EARNINGS

  • GDP Belgium 2008: 344 676Million

49. GHG Belgique 2008 : 132,6Million Tonnes CO2q. 50. Added Value / tCO2e:2600 Euros 51. Ratio withmarketprice x 17315 /t CO2
Source : Stern Review reviewed (2009) ;
Mc Kinsey 2009
How much to save the planet ?
Whatdoeseconomists tell us

  • Stabilise GHG concentrations 2 to 3 % World GDP / year

52. Costs of inaction : 20% World GDP at least 53. Costs if 10 more yearsbefore actionsx 5for costs of action & inaction75 /t CO2
NOW !
READY to allow 3% of your Gross margin to climate plans ?
54. BeforeLeavingyou

  • Environmental Risks accross the fullValue Chain

55. What if ? 56. Indirect >> direct 57. Dependency vs impacts 58. Less , Better,Differently, someting else 59. From product to service 60. Increase lifetime & guarantee, making things last longer, PSS 61. Promote vertical integration (margin management) & B2C 62. Initiate, Develop and conslidatepostivie activities : More fun, more earnings, less environmental impacts. 63. New economic models for new activities : Green grey , lifecyclecosts, etc. Important changes are made by people like you and me
A R EY O UI N ?
31
64. Thank You!
20, Rue du Chteau
6536 Thuin - BELGIUM
Frederic.Chome@gmail.com
Frdric Chom
+32 (0) 474 701 832
www.theccgroup.eu
Skype : fredchome
Blog Demande FredO :
http://www.terra-economica.info/Demande-a-FredO,608.html
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