Engelbrecht.joe

Innovation Through Alternate Futures

Dr. Jae EngelbrechtToffler AssociatesFebruary 9-10, 2011

© TOFFLER ASSOCIATES — PROPRIETARY 1Used with permission

© TOFFLER ASSOCIATES — PROPRIETARY

• Jake is part of a team at NASA who has been given the following challenge:

“How does NASA leverage our emerging capabilities (including, for example, the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 and GRACE Follow-On Mission) to work with international actors to yield expanded understanding of our home planet and improved understanding of climate change?”

• A member of the team will be the Project Manager for the determined solution, and Jake hopes it is him

• What can Jake do to add unique value and capability to the team so he can secure his spot as a key-runner for the PM position?

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“Jake, we have a problem”

© TOFFLER ASSOCIATES — PROPRIETARY 3

Jake begins by brainstorming future challenges to current competencies and capabilities

Public Opinion& Social Factors

Technology &Entrepreneurship

GlobalEconomy

PoliticalClimate

Security &Safety

MissionMandate

InternationalCooperation

HumanResources

Energy & theEnvironment


Jake is approaching the challenge from a traditional mission focus

“In looking toward the future, humans typically extrapolate from present knowledge. We metaphorically shine “flashlight beams” from the present into the future – “onto a dark wall”.”- John L. Anderson, NASA

Starting Point:Current Competencies

and Capabilities

Boundaries: (artifacts of past problems)

But, disturbingly, we know that much of the future lies outside those beams.

Linear Extrapolation: The Corporate ‘Mission’

))

Unfolding Events and TechnologiesUnfolding Events and Technologies

Boundaries: (artifactsof past problems)

Boundaries: (artifactsof past problems) Uncharted (including

opportunities unrealized)

Uncharted (includingopportunities unrealized)

The PresentThe Present

Starting Point: Current Competencies

and Capabilities

Starting Point: Current Competencies

and Capabilities

Mission(Linear)

Mission(Linear)

ContingencyPlans

ContingencyPlans

Adapted from: John L. Anderson NASA A Point in the FutureA Point in the Future


• The HMM first posits an ‘impossible-by-extrapolation’ Horizon – a truly challenging future, a leap of imagination beyond our reach

• It then places people mentally in a frame of reference built around that ‘fixed’ future and stimulates their imagination to generate hypothetical, breakthrough-based alternatives that could have accomplished that future

• Finally, it comes fully ‘back from the future’ to the present to analytically determine near-term steps toward that future

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Jake could approach the challenge with John L. Anderson’s ’Horizon Mission Methodology’

“The Horizon Mission Methodology has been developed as a structured means of using intuitive thinking.”- John L. Anderson, NASA


A sampling of technological drivers of change that will shape our world between now and 2050

Technology &Entrepreneurship Open networks for innovation will break down

previously protected borders and provide new intelligence sources

Valuable information risks collecting “cyberdust”

Advancements in disruptive technologies will significantly alter the defense, security and safety

landscape

- 29,700,500,268 Tweets to date- The number of text messages sent and received

everyday exceeds the total population of the planet

- Average of 900,000 blog posts made every day- Over 346,000,000 people globally read blogs- One trillion – approximate number of unique URLs

in Google’s index

- Since 2005, more than 341M records containing sensitive personal information were involved in security breaches in the US

- By 2013, a supercomputer will be built that exceeds the computational capabilities of the human brain


A sampling of social drivers of change that will shape our world between now and 2050

Public Opinion& Social Factors Migration, urbanization and population growth

will change reliance upon local infrastructure

Population and demographic changes around the globe will create financial, social and economic

stresses

Social networking will drive new means of influence

Consumers will drive choice

- 35% of current US population lives in mega-cities- 66% of the global population will be in cities by

2030

- The foreign-born population in the US is now 31.1 million, a record 57% increase since 1990

- China will soon become the #1 English speaking country in the world

- During the riots following Iran’s elections, one tweeter alone had over 7,000 followers and the Mr. Mir Houssein Moussavi’s Facebook page had over 50,000 members

- 85% of Americans would consider switching to another company’s products or services because of a company’s negative corporate responsibility

- 79% would refuse to invest in a company’s stock


A sampling of security drivers of change that will shape our world between now and 2050

Security &Safety

The threats we face in our businesses and lives are proliferating and becoming more complex

Radical religious extremism will continue to be a catalyst for conflict for the foreseeable future

China is developing both traditional and asymmetric military capabilities to counter key US

strengths

- In 2008, there was a total of 11,800 terrorist attacks worldwide, resulting in 54,000+ deaths, injuries and kidnappings

- There is a 10-20% chance of a “breakdown of the critical information infrastructure” in the next 10 years due to “malicious code, coding error, natural disasters, or attacks by terrorists”

- In 126 countries (64%), public religious tensions led to hostilities involving physical violence, and in 43 countries (22%) they resulted in numerous cases of violence. In 22 countries (11%), there were acts of sectarian or communal violence between religious groups

- 1996-2008 data indicates that China’s defense budget grew at an average of 12.9% in real terms, while GDP grew at 9.6%


A sampling of economic drivers of change that will shape our world between now and 2050

Global Economy

China will continue to position itself as a long-term economic power-player around the globe

South America will be reshaped by prolonged economic growth

Brazil, China, Russia and India’s economies are becoming less US and EU centric

The US job market is rapidly changing

- China remained the biggest owner abroad of US Treasuries with $889 billion in 2010 growing from $699 billion in 2006

- Since 2007, the majority of large Latin America economies have been growing 8% per annum

- Brazil has invested $10B in Africa since 2003- Trade levels between India and China exceeded

$60B in 2009

- The US Dept. of Labor estimates that today’s learner will have 10-14 jobs by the age of 38

- 1 in 4 US workers have been with their employer less than a year


A sampling of environmental drivers of change that will shape our world between now and 2050

Energy & theEnvironment Natural disasters will be more frequent with

broader consequences

Competition for energy will intensify, shifting state power

Climate change will serve as a conflict enabler in fragile nations

Global companies will embrace the “fourth bottom line”

- 13 of the hottest years recorded have occurred in the past 20 years- Droughts and floods have increased 10-fold- Forest fires in the US are 4 times more frequent, burning 6 times more area over a fire season that is 78 days longer

- Sanaa, Yemen is predicted to become the world’s first capital city to run out of water – in 20 years

- Venezuela secured a $20 billion loan from China in return for crude oil

- US imported $38 billion in oil from Nigeria in 2008

- The World Heath Organization estimates that 150,000 lives are already being lost each year due to climate change

- In 2009, companies such a GE boosted profits by $6 billion as a result of ‘green’ innovation


On closer examination…

Let’s consider an Alternate World that addresses three of the previously discussed drivers

GLOBAL ECONOMY

TECHNOLOGY & ENTREPRENEURSHIP

SECURITY & SAFETY

The degree of integration of the world economy measured by the unrestricted and free movement of goods, services and labor transnationally

CONSTRAINED

CONVENTIONAL

FOCUSED

ROBUST

AVANT-GARDE

FRAGMENTED

The extent to which players adapt and respond to the introduction and growth of new markets and concepts

What are people’s expectations for safety & security, and what do they focus on?


Alternate World 1: Nerves between Organs

GLOBAL ECONOMYConstrained


Avant-gardeSECURITY & SAFETY

Focused

Independent Interdependent Continually defense conscious

Perceived high threat

High risk, high reward Perceived high threat

Less emphasis on social /class status

Cutting edge techniques,

equipment or ideas

Multiple safety sources and substitutes

Short-term focus Short-term focus Partly connected to external environment

Role of domestic government limited

to securtiy

Address problems using new

techniques or tools

Sensitive to national and international

interests

Instability leads to rising populace fear Encourage change Long term fears

Little incentive for risky behavior Risky investments Concentrated

investment

Few, traditional players Many, new players Public massification

Geopolitics & Security• New “cold-war-like” world order• National security is key role of government

Economics• International cooperation decreases, driving

trans-border cooperation at sub-state level• Public services are increasingly privatized• Economic support from government is

limited

Communications• Increased sharing of accessible information• Advanced communications has resulted in

‘international teaming’ at sub-state level

Transportation• Perceived outside threats reduce traditional

international travel


• Global Economy• The key players are no longer 192 organs, but 1,920,000,000

nerves

• Technology & Entrepreneurship• The rise of social networking allows for previously untapped

intelligence sources from previously unexploited areas of the world

• Although support from government will be limited, support from the general populace will be at available at an unprecedented level

• Security & Safety• Due to concerns for their own security and safety, nation-

states have retreated within their borders and are focused exclusively on defense

• This has forced international cooperation to occur at the sub-state level

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When Jake stands in this world, what are the implications for his challenge?

“How does NASA leverage our emerging capabilities to work with international actors to yield expanded understanding of our home planet and improved understanding of climate change?”


Alternate World 2: Facebook 7.0

GLOBAL ECONOMYRobust


Avant-gardeSECURITY & SAFETY

Fragmented

Interdependent Interdependent Episodic concern for safety

Limited economic security concerns

High risk, high reward

Perceived low level but pervasive threat

High emphasis on social /class status

Cutting edge techniques,

equipment or ideasValue in non-security

sources

Long-term monetary focus Short-term focus Highly connected to

external environment

Globalization at an extreme

Address problems using new

techniques or tools

Sensitive to personal, family, community and

global level focus

Multiple international partnerships

Encourage change Near term fears

High incentive for investments Risky investments Divided investment

Many, new players Many, new players Private demassification

Geopolitics & Security• Stable international security environment• Rise in malicious information manipulation

Economics• Globalization is maximized, increasing

personal wealth for many• Heightened commercial competition

threatens the viability of government orgs.

Communications• Sharing of easily accessible information

results in a high-degree of innovation• New intelligence sources are available

Transportation• National borders still exist, but are viewed

as obsolete due to high connectivity


• Global Economy• Due to the strong economy, increased discretionary money

will flow in direction of space and science research and development

• Technology & Entrepreneurship• Due to monetary incentives and new intellectual resources,

technological innovation in the space and science sector will occur at an unprecedented level

• Therefore, both public and private players in this sector must continuously be at the top of their game… or become obsolete

• Security & Safety• Because global security concerns are diffuse, there is a desire

amongst countries to work to answer global challenges – solutions to these are at a premium

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When Jake stands in this world, what are the implications for his challenge?

“How does NASA leverage our emerging capabilities to work with international actors to yield expanded understanding of our home planet and improved understanding of climate change?”


• NASA needs to have better outreach capabilities to allow for an increased understanding of technologies that are being developed below the nation-state level and for integrating these technologies into its solutions

• NASA needs to set mileposts and strengthen its sensing capabilities to adequately perceive when major micro and macro level drivers are shifting and how to take advantage of these shifts as a basis for innovative solutions

• NASA needs to continue its efforts, recognizing that neither of these alternate worlds present a utopia

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What are the implications for Jake, and more broadly for NASA, when these two ‘worlds’ collide?

These organizations benefited from the multiple layers of useful insights provided by our rigorous Alternate Futures methodology


Materials Science Division of a Fortune 500

Company

Goal: Division wanted to identify new uses for its polyurethane, polycarbonate, coating, adhesive, and sealant product lines

Alternate Futures: Enabled organization to create plausible ‘pictures’ of the future of construction materials within the hospital sector

Result: Detection of six changes in hospital structures and interiors that required new or improved materials – resulting in emerging business opportunities

U.S. Intelligence Agency

Goal: Leaders desired to transform agency’s intelligence services to better address the challenging 21st century security environment

Alternate Futures: Enabled organization to determine key factors that will drive organization’s future operating environment in the 2020 timeframe

Result: Four identified Alternate Futures formed foundation of organization’s strategic and scenario based planning

International Civil Aviation Authority and Ministry of Transport

Goal: Client wanted to understand the future of aviation industry so it could anticipate and mitigate risks to their air-hubs leadership position

Alternate Futures: Enabled organization to identify four future overarching effects that may significantly impact aviation industry

Result: Used insights gained from identified issues to develop a future focused strategy for national airport to ensure its position as the aviation hub

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Previous clients and the resulting implications of analyzing alternate future worlds


Conclusion

Don’t view the future with a flashlight when you can turn on the lights…

Innovation lurks beyond the constrained beam.

Driver 1

Driv

er 3

Driver 2

Nerves between Organs

???

Facebook 7.0

???

Innovation Through Alternate Futures

Dr. Jae EngelbrechtToffler [email protected]

703.598.9373


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