October 2015

Economic Indicators

Intentional

evolution

Economic Outlook – October 2015

2

Europe:

• Consensus GDP forecast for WE remained stable on 1,7% for 2015 and came down from 1,9%

to 1,8% for 2016.

• The EU industrial confidence improved slightly in September while consumer confidence

deteriorated again.

• The IFO Business Climate index for Germany rose again in September. The German economy is

proving to be robust.

• Even if GDP held up well during Q2 (+0,4% q-o-q), pressure on ECB mounted to introduce

further stimulus based on fears over a renewed deflation return.

US:

• Consensus GDP forecast for the US remained on 2,5% for 2015 and came down from 2,7% to

2,6% for 2016.

• The US Fed’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged at its September meeting raised

concerns about the global economy.

Japan:

• The GDP forecast for Japan came down again from 0,7% to 0,6% for 2015, and from 1,5%

to 1,3% for 2016.

• Confidence in Japanese economy suffered a further blow with the credit rate downgrading

from Standard & Poor’s from AA- to A+.

Intentional

evolution

Eurostat Data

3

Intentional

evolution 4

GDP EU 28 vs same Quarter last Year

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

40

9 Q

1

10

Q1

11

Q1

12

Q1

13

Q1

14

Q1

15

Q1

%

GDP for the EU 28 countries at constant prices quarter vs. same quarter of last year

Source: Eurostat Sep 15

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evolution 5

GDP EU 28 Q-o-Q

Source: Eurostat Sep 15

-2,5

-2

-1,5

-1

-0,5

0

0,5

109

Q1

10

Q1

11

Q1

12

Q1

13

Q1

14

Q1

15

Q1

%

GDP for the EU 28 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter

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EU 28 Consumer Price Index

-1

-0,5

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,50

9/1

10

/1

11

/1

12

/1

13

/1

14

/1

15

/1

16

/1

%

Source: Eurostat Oct 15

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ECB Interest Rate

Source: ECB, FED, Eurostat Sep 15

ECB short-term rate

Eurozone inflation

FED rate

Sep.15; -0,1

Oct 15; 0,05

Oct 15; 0,25

-1,0

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5Jan

09

Ju

l.09

Jan

10

Ju

l.10

Jan

11

Ju

ly 1

1

Jan

12

Ju

l.12

Jan

13

Ju

l.13

Jan

14

Ju

l.14

Jan

15

Ju

l.15

Jan

16

%

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EU 28 Unemployment Rate

9,5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Jan

09

Ja

n 1

0

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Jan

15

Jan

16

%

Source: Eurostat Oct 15

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Industrial Confidence EU Industrial confidence within EU 28 improved slightly in September after the fall in August.

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10Jan

09

Ja

n 1

0

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Jan

15

Jan

16

Source: Eurostat Sep 15

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Consumer Confidence EU Consumer Confidence within EU 28 fell again in September.

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Jan

15

Jan

16

Source: Eurostat Sep 15

Intentional

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Capacity Utilization EU 27 In Manufacturing Industry

60

65

70

75

80

8504

Q1

05

Q1

06

Q1

07

Q1

08

Q1

09

Q1

10

Q1

11

Q1

12

Q1

13

Q1

14

Q1

15

Q1

81,4

%

Source: Eurostat Aug 15

IFO Data

12

Intentional

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IFO World Economic Climate The Ifo Index for the world economy cooled down in the third quarter 2015.

Source: IFO Aug 15

This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.

Intentional

evolution 14

IFO European Economic Climate The Economic climate tended downwards in Q3 2015

Source: IFO Aug 15

This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.

Intentional

evolution 15

IFO NA Economic Climate

Source: IFO Aug 15

This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.

Intentional

evolution 16

IFO Asia Economic Climate

Source: IFO Aug 15

This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.

Intentional

evolution 17

GDP Forecast Euro Area

Source: IFO Aug 15

Intentional

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GDP Forecast Germany

Source: IFO Aug 15

Intentional

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Exchange rate USD vs EUR

Source: IFO Apr 15

Intentional

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IFO Situation and Expectations Germany

Source: IFO Sep 15

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Jan

15

Business situation

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Jan

15

6 months expectations

The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany rose again slightly in September. Companies assessed

their current business situation slightly less favorably than in August, but they expressed greater

optimism about future business. The German economy is proving to be robust.

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evolution 21

IFO Current Business Situation Germany

Source: IFO Sep 15

The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany rose again slightly in September. Companies assessed

their current business situation slightly less favorably than in August, but they expressed greater

optimism about future business. The German economy is proving to be robust.

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evolution 22

IFO Climate German Printing Industry

The business situation (blue line) within the printing industry improved by 3,3% in July compared to the

previous month, reaching its highest level since 1991. The business expectations (grey line) on the other

hand deteriorated by 2,1%, leaving the business climate (red line) fairly stable with plus 0,3%.

Source: IFO Aug 15, bundesverband druck und medien

Zenith Data

23

Intentional

evolution 24

Global Advertising Growth

Source: ZenithOptimedia 06/15

Intentional

evolution 25

Regional Advertising Development

Source: ZenithOptimedia 06/15

Intentional

evolution 26

Global Advertising Markets

Source: ZenithOptimedia 06/15

Intentional

evolution 27

Global Advertising Markets

Source: ZenithOptimedia 06/15

Intentional

evolution 28

Advertising by Medium

Source: ZenithOptimedia 06/15

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Thank you