Economic Indicators: December 1983 - St. Louis FedCharts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of...

98th Congress, 1st Session

Economic Indicators

DECEMBER 1983

Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the

Council of Economic Advisers

UNITED STATES

GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE

WASHINGTON : 1983

Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE(Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)

ROGER W. JEPSEN, Iowa, ChairmanLEE H. HAMILTON, Indiana, Vice Chairman

SENATEWILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware)JAMES ABDNOR (South Dakota)STEVEN D. SYMMS (Idaho)MACK MATTINGLY (Georgia)ALFONSE M. D'AMATO (New York)LLOYD BENTSEN (Texas)WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin)EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts)PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland)

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVESGILLIS W. LONG (Louisiana)PARREN J. MITCHELL (Maryland)AUGUSTUS F. HAWKINS (California)DAVID R. OBEY (Wisconsin)JAMES H. SCHEUER (New York)CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio)MARJORIE S. HOLT (Maryland)DAN LUNGREN (California)OLYMPIA J. SNOWE (Maine)

BRUCE R. BARTLETT, Executive Director

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

MARTIN FELDSTEIN, ChairmanWILLIAM A. NISKANEN, Member

WILLIAM POOLE, Member

[PUBLIC LAW 120—SlsT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION]

JOINT RESOLUTION [SJ. Res. 55]

To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators"

Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That theJoint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and thata sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeantat Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; twocopies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to theJoint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents fordistribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copiesprinted for sale to the public.

Approved June 23, 1949.

Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce.

Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $4.25 a single copy($5.35 foreign), or by subscription at $25.00 per year ($31.25 for foreignmailing) from:

SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTSGOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE

WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402


TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDINGGROSS NATIONAL PRODUCTAccording to revised estimates for the third quarter, gross national product rose $90.2 billion or 11.5 percent, bothat annual rates. Real output (GNP adjusted for price changes) rose 7.6 percent (annual rate) and the implicit pricedeflator rose at a 3.6 percent annual rate.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)3,600

3,200

2,800

2,400

2,000

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)3,600

—

_•

—

—

:

r*»**""***

i i i1975

^»**""*"""""*

1 1 1

1976

^

1 1 1

1977

SEASON/

IN a

/

1 i 11978

ULY ADJUSTED ANNU

GNPJRRENT DOLLA

i 1 i

1979

Al RATES

RS S

GNPIN 1972 DOl

1 1 i

1980

^1

LARS

1 1 1

1981

-^ *

1 1 1

1982

^E^^

—

E

—

i i i1983

3,200

2,800

2,400

2,000

1,600

1,200

SOURCf DFPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982

1981: IIIIV

1982: IIIIllIV

1983: IIIIIIr

Grossnationalproduct

1,077.61,185.91,326.41,434.21,549.21,718.01,918.32,163.92,417.82,631.72,954.13,073.0

3,004.93,032.2

3,021.43,070.23,090.73,109.6

3,171.53,272.03,362.2

Personalconsump-

tionexpendi-

tures

672.2737.1812.0888.1976.4

1,084.3,204.4,346.5

1,507.21,668.1,857.2,991.9

1,886.11,904.1

1,938.91,972.82,008.82,046.9

2,073.02,147.02,181.1

Grossprivate

domesticinvest-ment

166.4195.0229.8228.7206.1257.9324.1386.6423.0401.9474.9414.5

495.8476.2

422.9432.5425.3377.4

404.1450.1501.1

Exports ar

Netexports

4.1.7

14.213.426.813.8

-4.0-1.113.223.926.317.4

22.829.2

29.933.3

.95.6

17.0-8.5

-18.3

id imports ofservices

Exports

68.877.5

109.6146.2154.9170.9182.7218.7281.4338.8368.8347.6

367.5371.0

358.4364.5346.0321.6

326.9327.1341.1

goods and

Imports

64.776.795.4

132.8128.1157.1186.7219.8268.1314.8342.5330.2

344.7341.7

328.5331.2345.0316.1

309.9335.6359.4

Total

234.9253.1270.4304.1339.9362.1393.8431.9474.4537.8595.7649.2

600.3622.8

629.8631.6655.7679.7

677.4683.4698.3

Govengoo

Tntal

96.2101.7102.0111.0122.7129.2143.4153.6168.3197.0229.2258.7

232.4248.5

249.7244.1261.7279.2

273.5273.7278.1

iment pureh*ds and servi

Federal

Nationaldefense

70.273.172.877.083.086.092.8

100.3111.8131.2154.0179.4

154.9166.7

168.1175.2183.6190.8

194.4199.4201.2

tses ofces

Non-defense

26.028.529.133.939.743.250.653.356.565.975.279.3

77.581.8

81.768.978.188.5

79.174.376.9

State andlocal

138.7151.4168.5193.1217.2232.9250.4278.3306.0340.8366.5390.5

367.9374.3

380.0387.5394.0400.5

404.0409.7420.2

Pin « 1

1,070.01,175.71,307.91,420.11,556.11,706.21,895.32,137.42,403.52,641.52,935.63,097.5

2,971.43,017.9

3,047.13,081.43,095.63,165.9

3,210.93,286.63,353.7

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.


GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 DOLLARS[Billions of 1972 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982

1981: IIIIV

1982: IIIIllIV

1983: IIIni r

•Gross

nationalproduct

,122.4,185.9,254.3,246.3,231.6,298.2,369.7,438.6,479.4,475.0,513.8,485.4

1,525.81,506.9

1,485.81,489.31,485.71,480.7

1,490.11,525.11,553.4

Personalconsump-

tionexpendi-

tures

696.8737.1767.9762.8779.4823.1864.3903.2927.6931.8956.8970.2

962.9955.7

961.4968.8971.0979.6

986.71,010.61,016.0

Gdome

Nonresi-dentialfixed

112.2121.0138.1135.7119.3125.6140.3158.3169.9165.8174.4166.1

177.0176.3

173.6167.1163.3160.5

159.9163.0170.1

ross privatstic investi

Residen-tial fixed

53.763.862.348.242.251.260.762.459.147.144.737.8

43.139.4

36.337.836.540.6

45.552.656.8

eiient

Changein

businessinven-tories

8.110.217.211.66.77.8

13.316.07.3

-4.48.5

-9.4

16.16.0

-10.2-3.4-1.3

-22.7

-15.4-5.4

3.8

Exja

Netexports

1.6.7

15.527.832.225.422.024.037.250.343.028.9

39.839.9

35.233.424.023.0

20.512.311.4

)orts of gond services

Exports

71.077.597.3

108.5103.5110.1112.9126.7146.2159.1159.7147.3

159.0158.7

151.8154.5146.4136.5

137.3136.2140.7

ods

Imports

69.376.781.880.771.484.790.9

102.7109.0108.8116.7118.4

119.1118.8

116.6121.1122.4113.5

116.8123.9129.2

Total

250.1253.1253.3260.3265.2265.2269.2274.6278.3284.3286.5291.8

286.8289.6

289.4285.8292.2299.7

292.9292.1295.2

Governigood

Total

103.7101.795.996.697.496.8

100.4100.3102.1106.4110.4116.6

111.8114.5

114.5110.3116.9124.4

118.4117.6118.9

nent purchs and serv

Federal

Nationaldefense

73.168.366.966.464.965.465.767.470.073.678.8

74.475.7

75.577.880.481.4

82.784.284.2

ases ofices

Non-defense

28.527.629.731.031.835.034.734.836.436.837.8

37.438.7

39.132.536.543.0

35.733.434.7

Stateand local

146.4151.4157.4163.6167.8168.4168.8174.3176.2177.9176.1175.2

175.0175.1

174.9175.4175.3175.2

174.5174.5176.3

Finalsales

,114.3,175.7,237.1,234.7,238.4

1,290.41,356.41,422.61,472.21,479.41,505.31,494.8

1,509.71,500.9

1,495.91,492.71,487.01,503.4

1,505.51,530.51,549.7


IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT[1972 = 100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted]

Period

197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982

1981: IIIIV

1982: IIIIllIV

1983: IIIIll r

Grossnationalproduct

96.01100.00105.75115.08125.79132.34140.05150.42163.42178.42195.14206.88

196.94201.22

203.36206.15208.03210.00

212.83214.55216.44

Total

96.5100.0105.7116.4125.3131.7139.3149.1162.5179.0194.1205.3

195.9199.2

201.7203.6206.9209.0

210.1212.5214.7

Personal cexpen

Durablegoods

99.0100.0101.7108.2117.3123.9129.2136.4145.0156.2167.3174.8

169.3171.2

172.9174.2176.1176.1

177.3177.5179.1

onsumptionditures

Nondur-able

goods

96.6100.0108.5123.4132.5137.2143.6153.4169.9188.1202.5209.0

203.8205.5

206.8207.6210.2211.2

210.6213.4215.5

Services

95.6100.0104.7113.0121.6129.6139.3150.0162.3178.8195.8211.6

197.9202.5

206.3209.4213.4217.2

219.8223.1225.7

Grossdomestic i

Nonresi-dentialfixed

96.2100.0103.8115.4132.2138.6146.3157.2170.8186.2201.9209.7

203.7208.5

208.1211.1209.6209.9

207.7206.3206.3

privatenvestment

Residen-tial fixed

94.8100.0109.1120.3131.0140.7158.0178.3200.5218.5233.5240.2

235.7239.2

240.8240.9240.9238.4

244.9243.9249.0

Exports antgoods an(

Exports

97.0100.0112.7134.8149.6155.3161.9172.6192.5212.9230.8236.0

231.2233.8

236.1236.0236.3235.6

238.0240.2242.5

[ imports ofi services

Imports

93.3100.0116.7164.6179.6185.6205.5214.1246.1289.4293.4278.9

289.4287.7

281.8273.6281.8278.5

265.4270.7278.1

Gove

Total

92.7100.0106.3114.9126.0133.5142.8153.1164.8185.2207.7222.0

207.9217.0

218.0221.3223.8224.4

230.9232.7233.8

rnment pureser

Federal

Nationaldefense

100.0106.6115.1124.9132.4141.9152.7166.0187.5209.3227.7

208.3220.0

222.7225.1228.3234.3

234.9236.7238.8

lases of goonces

Non-defense

100.0105.6114.2128.2135.7144.6153.8162.5180.8204.5210.0

207.0211.2

209.1212.3213.9205.7

221.7222.6221.7

ds and

Stateand local

94.7100.0107.0118.0129.4138.3148.4159.7173.7191.5208.1222.9

210.2213.8

217.3220.9224.7228.5

231.6234.8238.3



CHANGES IN GNP AND GNP PRICE MEASURES[Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982

1981: mIV

1982: InniIV .

1983: Innr.

Currentdollars

8.610.111.88.18.0

10.911.712.811.78.8

12.24.0

13.33.7

-1.46.62.72.5

8.213.311.5

Gro

Constant(1972)dollars

3.45.75.8-.6

-1.25.45.55.02.8-.32.61.9

3.6-4.9

-5.51.0

-1.0-1.3

2.69.77.6

ss national pr(

Implicitprice

deflator

5.04.25.88.89.35.25.87.48.69.29.46.0

9.49.0

4.35.63.73.8

5.53.33.6

>duct

Chain priceindex

4.94.16.09.19.25.76.17.68.98.99.46.5

9.08.2

5.65.25.95.0

3.64.34.5

Fixed-weighted

price index(1972

weights)

4.84.06.09.49.15.86.37.89.59.89.56.4

8.98.4

5.34.75.94.7

3.44.34.7

Currentdollars

8.19.6

10.29.49.9

11.011.111.811.910.711.37.3

11.43.9

7.57.27.57.8

5.215.16.5

Personal

Constant(1972)dollars

3.75.84.2-.72.25.65.04.52.7.5

2.71.4

3.53.0

2.43.1

.93.6

2.910.02.2

3onsumption ei

Implicitprice

deflator

4.33.75.7

10.17.65.15.87.09.0

10.28.45.8

7.77.0

5.04.06.54.1

2.24.64.2

tpenditures

Chain price .index

4.33.66.1

10.47.75.36.07.39.3

10.79.05.9

7.87.0

5.23.96.45.1

2.34.74.2

Fixed-weighted

price index(1972

weights)

4.23.56.1

10.47.85.36.27.49.7

11.19.25.7

7.56.8

4.83.56.75.1

1.64.94.4

NOTE.—Annual changes are from previous year and quarterly changes are from previous quarter. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, ANDPROFITS

[Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982

1981: HIIV..

1982: InIllIV

1983: IIIIIP

Gross cproduct of i

corporate(billions c

Currentdollars

609.9678.0759.4818.9890.0

1,001.31,128.41,276.21,416.81,540.71,739.91,776.7

1,778.61,778.9

1,764.91,780.21,786.81,775.0

1,817.61,892.41,957.8

omesticlonfinancialbusiness

f dollars)

1972dollars

626.8678.0731.9708.2694.2745.5795.8846.3876.1859.5887.5857.7

898.6878.9

864.3860.5859.5846.4

856.0885.8909.4

Totalcost andprofit 2

0.9731.0001.0381.1561.2821.3431.4181.5081.6171.7931.9602.072

1.9792.024

2.0422.0692.0792.097

2.1232.1362.153

Cun

Capitalconsump-

tionallowances

withcapital

consump-tion

adjustment

0.091.092.093.112.137.141.145.155.171.198.217.245

.217

.229

.236

.242

.247

.254

.252

.245

.241

rent-dollar co

Indirectbusinesstaxes 3

0.113.113.114.127.140.141.141.144.149.172.199.209

.199

.204

.204

.207

.209

.215

.218

.223

.221

st and profit

Compen-sation ofemploy-

0.641.659.692.786.837.878.928.998

1.0941.2181.3021.397

1.3061.342

1.3741.3941.4031.419

1.4281.4161.412

per unit of

Netinterest

0.029.028.031.042.044.040.040.044.050.065.074.076

.081

.080

.080

.079

.072

.073

.070

.066

.065

output (dollai

Corporatevaluation i

Total

0.099.107.107.090.124.144.163.168.154.140.169.145

.177

.169

.148

.147

.148

.135

.156

.187

.214

rs)1

profits withmd capital ccadjustments

Profitstax

liability

0.047.049.055.059.059.071.075.079.079.078.074.048

.075

.068

.053

.051

.049

.040

.049

.062

.070

inventorynsumption

Profitsaftertax4

0.052.058.053.030.065.073.088.089.075.062.095.097

.102

.101

.095

.096

.099

.095

.108

.125

.144

Outputper hour

of allemploy-

ees (1972dollars)

7.4507.6647.8497.5557.7748.0028.1448.2168.2018.1268.3328.373

8.3928.323

8.3428.3308.4098.421

8.4928.6278.738

Compen-sation per

hour ofall

employ-ees

(dollars)

4.7785.0525.4295.9376.5077.0247.5588.1988.9699.894

10.85011.700

10.95711.171

11.46311.61411.79511.952

12.12612.21312.331

1 Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business in 1972 dol-lars.

2 This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business withthe decimal point shifted two places to the left.

3 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies.4 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor(Bureau of Labor Statistics).


NATIONAL INCOME[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

197119721973197419751976 ,197719781979198019811982

1981: HIIV

1982: IninIV

1983: In111

Nationalincome

871.5963.6,086.2,160.7,239.4,379.2,550.5,760.3

1,966.72,116.62,373.02,450.4

2,423.42,435.6

2,419.72,448.92,458.92,474.0

2,528.52,612.82,686.9

Compensa-tion of

employees *

652.2718.0801.3877.5931.4

1,036.31,152.11,301.11,458.11,599.61,769.21,865.7

1,791.71,815.6

1,834.21,859.91,879.51,889.0

1,923.71,968.72,011.8

Proprietors'inventory v

capital coadjust

Farm

15.018.732.826.524.619.119.126.331.921.830.521.5

35.031.3

27.416.815.826.0

22.221.015.5

income withiluation andnsumptionments

Nonfarm

54.458.161.062.265.475.084.892.2

100.295.689.787.4

88.585.8

83.788.187.890.2

98.4106.2111.2

Rentalincome ofpersons

withcapital

consump-tion

adjustment

20.221.022.623.523.023.524.826.627.931.541.449.9

42.745.6

47.449.050.952.3

54.154.853.9

Corporate p

Total

83.296.6

108.394.9

110.5138.1167.3192.4194.8175.4192.3164.8

197.6192.0

162.0166.8168.5161.9

181.8218.2248.4

rofits with inv

Profits •%adjustmc

consi

Total

82.094.0

105.696.7

120.6151.6178.5205.1209.6191.7203.3165.9

208.3201.5

167.7170.3168.3157.2

168.0192.7210.8

3ntory valuatioadjustments

ith inventorynt and withouimption adjust

Profits

86.6100.6125.6136.7132.1166.3194.7229.1252.7234.6227.0174.2

227.7217.2

173.2178.8177.3167.5

169.7203.3229.1

n and capital

valuationt capitalment

Inventoryvaluation

adjustment

-4.6-6.6

-20.0-40.0-11.6-14.7-16.2-24.0-43.1-42.9-23.6-8.4

-19.4-15.7

-5.5-8.5-9.0

-10.3

-1.7-10.6-18.3

consumption

Capitalconsump-

adjustment

1.32.72.7

-1.8-10.1

13.5-11.3-12.7-14.8-16.3-11.0-1.1

-10.7-9.5

-5.6-3.5

.14.7

13.925.637.6

Netinterest

46.551.260.276.184.587.2

102.5121.7153.8192.6249.9261.1

268.0265.3

265.0268.3256.4254.7

248.3243.8246.1

1 Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.) Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES[Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982

1981: IIIIV

1982: IIIIllIV

1983: IIIIll r

Totalpersonalconsump-

tionexpendi-

tures

672.2737.1812.0888.1976.4

1,084.31,204.41,346.51,507.21,668.11,857.21,991.9

1,886.11,904.1

1,938.91,972.82,008.82,046.9

2,073.02,147.02,181.1

Totaldurablegoods

97.2111.1123.3121.5132.2156.8178.2200.2213.4214.7236.1244.5

243.5230.8

239.4242.9243.4252.1

258.5277.7282.8

Durabh

Motorvehicles

andparts

45.452.457.150.455.872.684.895.796.690.7

101.6109.9

107.796.5

106.4107.6109.4116.1

118.4133.9135.6

3 goods

Furni-ture andhouse-hold

equip-ment

37.241.747.150.653.559.165.772.881.886.393.393.5

93.893.4

91.793.993.594.9

97.3100.8102.9

Other

14.616.919.220.522.925.227.731.735.137.741.241.1

42.040.9

41.341.440.541.0

42.943.144.3

Totalnondur-

ablegoods

278.8300.6333.4373.4407.3441.7478.8528.2600.0668.8733.9761.0

741.1747.7

749.7754.7766.6773.0

777.1799.6814.8

No

Food

144.2154.9172.1193.7213.6230.6249.8275.9311.6345.1375.9396.9

378.9383.2

388.1394.7400.4404.5

411.7419.6426.4

adurable go

Clothingand

shoes

50.655.461.464.869.675.382.692.499.1

104.6115.3119.0

116.8117.2

118.4119.0119.2119.6

120.0126.4125.1

ods

Gasolineand oil

23.925.428.636.640.444.048.151.266.684.894.691.5

95.195.6

94.089.691.391.1

87.390.393.1

Other

60.164.971.278.283.791.998.2

108.8122.8134.3148.1153.5

150.2151.7

149.2151.5155.6157.9

158.1163.3170.2

Services

296.2325.3355.2393.2437.0485.7547.4618.0693.7784.5887.1986.4

901.5925.6

949.7975.2998.9

1,021.8

1,037.41,069.71,083.5

Retail salpasseng

(millions

Domes-tics

8.79.39.67.47.08.59.09.28.26.66.25.8

6.85.1

5.85.75.66.0

6.16.97.0

es of newer carsof units)

Imports

1.61.61.81.41.61.52.12.02.32.42.32.2

2.22.2

2.22.02.22.5

2.32.32.3



SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOMEPersonal income increased $20.4 billion (annual rate) in November following a rise of $30.3 billion in October.

Wages and salaries rose $4.2 billion in November compared to a rise of $18.5 billion in October. The larger

increase in October was partly due to the telephone strike, which had reduced payrolls by about $5 billion in both

August and September.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)3,200

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)3,2002,800

1983


[Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

1973197419751976197719781979198019811982

1982: NovDec

1983: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJuly r.Aug r

Septr

Oct r

Nov*

Totalpersonalincome

1,065.21,168.61,265.01,391.21,540.41,732.71,951.22,165.32,435.02,578.6

2,633.12,645.0

2,652.62,650.52,670.12,689.02,719.32,732.62,747.62,756.42,781.62,811.92,832.3

salary

ments *

702.7765.7806.4889.9983.2

1,106.31,237.61,356.71,493.21,568.1

1,583.11,591.8

1,608.91,606.31,616.81,632.11,652.21,660.91,673,51,680.51,691.81,710.31,714.5

Other labor

48.855.864.575.989.4

102.5114.9128.0143.5156.6

160.4161.2

162.6164.2166.0168.1170.1172.2174.3176.3178.4180.6182.6

Proprietors

Farm

32.826.524.619.119.126.331.921.830.521.5

28.126.1

22.921.322.322.121.419.416.614.915.021.229.4

' income 3

Nonfarm

61.062.265.475.084.892.2

100.295.689.787.4

89.092.5

96.797.8

100.8103.1106.6109.0109.9110.9113.0113.3114.1

Rentalincome ofpersons 4

22.623.523.023.524.826.627.931.541.449.9

52.951.0

53.854.154.354.654.855.055.350.855.856.056.2

Personaldividendincome

26.529.129.936.539.645.350.856.862.866.4

68.068.3

68.768.968.969.069.469.570.270.971.672.372.9

Personalinterestincome

93.9112.4123.2132.5152.8179.4218.7266.0341.3366.2

363.3364.3

360.0356.0355.7355.0356.9359.4364.4370.2375.2378.1380.4

Transferpay-

ments 5

119.5141.2178.3194.3207.9223.8250.3297.6337.2374.5

401.0403.0

395.4398.1402.0402.7406.7406.7403.5402.2401.9402.2404.6

Less:Personal

contributionsfor socialinsurance

42.647.950.455.561.169.881.188.7

104.6112.0

112.7113.1

116.6116.2116.8117.6118.8119.5120.1120.3121.1122.1122.4

Nonfarmpersonalincome 6

1,023.71,131.81,229.11,359.31,506.51,689.71,899.32,119.52,377.02,527.6

2,575.52,589.4

2,600.22,599.72,618.42,637.52,668.52,683.82,701.42,711.82,736.72,760.72,772.8

1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation ofemployees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess ofwage accruals over wage disbursements.

2 Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare funds; workmen'scompensation; directors' fees; and a few other minor items.

3 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.

4 With capital consumption adjustment.5 Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments.6 Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor income,

and agricultural net interest.



DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOMEReal per capita disposable income rose again in the third quarter.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)2,600 FT2,400

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)2,6002,4002,200

2,000

1,800

1,600

,400

1,200

1,000

800

DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)11,00010,000

9,000

8,000

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,0001975 1983

3,000

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATESSOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Period

197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982

1981: IIIIV

1982: IIIIllIV

1983: IIIIII'....

Personalincome

868.4951.4

1,065.21,168.61,265.01,391.21,540.41,732.71,951.22,165.32,435.02,578.6

2,490.92,516.6

2,528.12,563.22,591.32,632.0

2,657.72,713.62,761.9

Less:Personaltax andnontax

payments

B

116.7141.0150.7170.2168.9196.8226.4258.7301.0336.5387.4402.1

398.9396.1

400.2404.2399.8404.1

401.8412.6400.1

Equals:Disposablepersonalincome

illions of dol

751.8810.3914.5998.3

1,096.11,194.41,314.01,474.01,650.21,828.92,047.62,176.5

2,092.02,120.5

2,127.92,159.02,191.52,227.8

2,255.92,301.02,361.7

Less:Personaloutlays *

ars

691.1757.7835.5913.2

1,001.81,111.91,236.01,384.61,553.51,718.71,912.42,051.1

Seas(

1,942.31,961.5

1,997.02,031.92,068.42,107.0

2,134.22,209.52,245.9

Equals:Personal

saving

60.752.679.085.194.382.578.089.496.7

110.2135.3125.4

mally adju

149.7159.0

130.8127.1123.0120.8

121.791.5

115.8

Per cdisposable

incc

Currentdollars

3,6203,8604,3154,6675,0755,4775,9656,6217,3318,0328,9069,377

sted annual

9,0889,188

9,1999,3159,4309,562

9,6619,834

10,069

apitapersonal

me

1972dollars

Do

3,7523,8604,0804,0094,0514,1584,2804,4414,5124,4874,5874,567

rates

4,6404,612

4,5624,5744,5584,576

4,5994,6294,690

Per capitaconsurexpent

Currentdollars

lars

3,2373,5113,8314,1524,5214,9725,4686,0486,6957,3268,0788,581

8,1948,250

8,3828,5118,6448,785

8,8789,1769,299

i personalnptioniitures

1972dollars

3,3553,5113,6233,5663,6093,7743,9244,0574,1214,0924,1624,180

4,1834,141

4,1564,1804,1784,204

4,2264,3194,331

Percentchange inreal percapita

disposablepersonalincome

Per

2.42.95.7

-1.71.02.62.93.81.6

-.62.2

-.4

7.8-2.4

-4.31.1

-1.41.6

2.02.65.4

Saving aspercent ofdisposablepersonalincome

cent

8.16.58.68.58.66.95.96.15.96.06.65.8

7.27.5

6.15.95.65.4

5.44.04.9

Popula-tion

(thou-sands) 2

207,692209,924211,939213,898215,981218,086220,289222,629225,106227,694229,916232,118

230,187230,797

231,304231,790232,387232,990

233,501233,984234,564

1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to business, and person-al transfer payments to foreigners (net).

2 Includes Armed Forces abroad. Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averagesfor the period.

Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census).


FARM INCOMEIn the third quarter, according to current estimates, gross farm income fell $0.9 billion (annual rate) and net farmincome fell $1.1 billion.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)200

160

120

100

80

60

40

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* [RATIO SCALE)200

160

120

100

80

60

40NET FARM INCOME-

20 20I

V

10 J I I 101975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

1982 1983


[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

19751976197719781979198019811982

1981: IIImIV

1982: IIIIllIV

1983: III111 P

Total 1

100.6102.9108.7127.2150.4150.1167.1162.2

161.2165.1172.2169.7

168.4158.5155.9165.8

161.0156.7155.8

(

Gas

Total

88.995.496.2

112.9131.8140.5142.3144.6

141.9138.5145.7143.0

147.6142.0142.3146.3

144.0141.3145.7

In

xross farm inconw

h marketing rece

Livestock andproducts

43.146.347.659.268.667.869.270.2

69.269.570.168.0

70.771.070.268.9

71.570.870.1

come of farm ope

ipts

Crops

45.849.048.653.763.272.773.174.4

72.769.075.675.0

76.971.072.177.4

72.570.575.6

rators from farmi

Value ofinventorychanges 2

3.4-1.5

1.1.8

4.9-5.3

7.6-1.9

3.110.19.57.9

2.0-1.7

3.5-4.2

-3.5-6.3

-12.3

ng

Productionexpenses

75.082.788.999.5

118.1128.6137.0140.1

135.1136.5137.8138.6

141.0141.5140.3137.6

136.6135.1135.3

Net fara

Currentdollars

25.620.119.827.732.321.530.122.1

26.128.634.431.1

27.417.015.628.2

24.421.620.5

i income

1967 dollars 3

15.911.810.914.214.88.7

11.07.6

9.910.712.511.0

9.75.95.39.6

8.37.36.8

1 Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cashincome, and nonmoney income furnished by farms.

2 Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at averageprices during the year.

3 Income in current dollars divided by the consumer price index (Department of Labor).

Source: Department of Agriculture, except as noted.


CORPORATE PROFITSIn the third quarter, according to revised estimates, corporate profits before tax rose $25.8 billion (annual rate)from their second quarter level and after-tax profits rose $16.9 billion.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS3201

280

240

200

160

120

80

40

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES


PROFITS BEFORE TAX

I I I

1975 1976 1977

PROFITS AFTER TAX

\

I I

1978

TAX LIABILITY

1979

—M.LUNDISTRIBUTED PROFITS

I I I I

280

240

200

160

120

80

40

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1980 1981 1982 1983


[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual ratesl

Period

1971197219731974197519761977....19781979198019811982

1981: HIIV

1982: IIIIllIV

1983: IIIIIIr

Pn

Total 2

82.094.0

105.696.7

120.6151.6178.5205.1209.6191.7203.3165.9

208.3201.5

167.7170.3168.3157.2

168.0192.7210.8

)fits (before t

Total

74.985.392.080.4

107.6137.4163.4185.4179.0161.9179.7144.1

186.5174.7

147.0148.5147.6133.1

147.8172.2187.4

ax) with inve

Doi

Financial

14.115.315.915.011.817.123.131.030.326.920.320.9

18.818.1

15.520.422.225.5

29.833.831.9

ntory valuati

nestic industi

Total 3

60.870.076.065.495.8

120.3140.3154.4148.6134.9159.4123.2

167.7156.5

131.5128.1125.4107.6

118.0138.4155.5

on adjustmen

-ies

Nonfinancial

Manufac-turing

34.140.745.539.052.669.278.386.985.672.986.759.0

93.376.9

60.961.465.548.3

53.768.178.2

t 1

WKrkla

sale andretailtrade

11.713.413.912.521.322.426.626.927.123.632.827.6

33.337.8

30.227.425.227.5

27.833.936.7

Profitsbefore tax

86.6100.6125.6136.7132.1166.3194.7229.1252.7234.6227.0174.2

227.7217.2

173,2178.8177.3167.5

169.7203.3229.1

Taxliability

37.541.649.051.650.663.872.783.287.684.882.859.2

83.775.6

60.361.460.854.0

61.576.084.9

P

Total

49.058.976.685.181.5

102.5122.0145.9165.1149.8144.1115.1

144.0141.7

112.9117.4116.5113.5

108.2127.2144.1

rofits after ta

Dividends

22.924.427.029.930.837.440.847.052.758.6.64.768.7

66.467.3

67.767.868.870.4

71.472.073.7

X

Undistrib-uted

profits

26.134.549.655.250.765.181.298.9

112.491.279.546.4

77.674.4

45.249.547.743.1

36.755.270.4

Inventoryvaluation

adjustment

-4.6-6.6

-20.0-40.0-11.6-14.7-16.2-24.0-43.1-42.9-23.6-8.4

-19.4-15.7

-5.5-8.5-9.0

-10.3

-1.7-10.6-18.3

1 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.2 Includes rest of the world, not shown separately.

3 Includes industries not shown separately.



GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENTAccording to revised estimates for the third quarter, business fixed investment rose $14.7 billion (annual rate) andresidential investment outlays rose $13.1 billion. There was an $8.5 billion increase in inventories following adecrease of $14.5 billion in the second quarter.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS600

CAA

AOD

Qfjfl

9ftfi

inn

-100

_

_

- ,_^

•«• «.«••"""*"*'

«.,,— m — —^

I 1 1

1975

OURCE: DEPARTMEN

^•»•»»*"

• — — ""*

^^ .„

„ -^^

1 1 1

1976

OF COMMERCE

GR(

/~^

REFIXED

^ ******

1 1 1

1977

SEASON/

DSS PRIVATE DINVESTMEh

V,S~~^

s^

****

5IDENTIALINVESTMENT

\

1 1 1

1978

ULY ADJUSTED ANNU

OMESTIC41

^ — -NONRESIDEtFIXED INVEST

\\^**

CHANIN

1 1 1

1979

At RATES

r^ ANlTIAL^MENT

*-»^ ~~~*

^

GE IN BUSINESVENTORIES

\

l l l1980

|-"""~

S

r-~-'""N

l l I1981

h-AVI

****•«*•»

—

1 1 11982

COUNCIL OF

/-^

* — — **

—

^

1 1 1

1983

ECONOMIC ADVISERS

600

K.r\r\

400

OAA

o/vj

i /•»/-)

0'

-100


Period

197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982

1981: IIIIV

1982: IIIIllIV

1983: III111 "

vjrossprivate

domesticinvestment

166.4195.0229.8228.7206.1257.9324.1386.6423.0401.9474.9414.5

495.8476.2

422.9432.5425.3377.4

404.1450.1501.1

Nonresic

Total

107.9121.0143.3156.6157.7174.1205.2248.9290.2308.8352.2348.3

360.6367.6

361.3352.7342.3337.0

332.1336.3351.0

ential fixed im

Structures

40.544.151.055.955.458.864.478.798.3

110.9133.4141.9

137.0145.5

144.7144.2140.0138.6

132.9127.4130.9

vestment

Producers'durable

equipment

67.476.992.3

100.7102.3115.3140.8170.2191.9197.9218.8206.4

223.6222.1

216.5208.5202.2198.4

199.3208.8220.2

Total

50.963.868.057.955.372.095.8

111.2118.6102.9104.390.8

101.794.3

87.391.087.996.8

111.3128.4141.5

Eesidential fix

Nonfarmstructures

48.961.565.654.852.468.892.0

107.0114.098.199.886.0

97.089.5

83.286.183.491.2

106.7123.3136.3

ed investment

Farmstructures

0.7.7.7

1.31.01.11.51.71.71.81.31.5

1.51.6

.91.61.32.3

1.31.51.6

Producersdurable

equipment

1.31.51.71.81.92.12.32.52.93.03.23.2

3.23.3

3.23.33.33.3

3.43.53.6

Change iimven

Total

7.710.218.514.1

-6.911.823.026.514.39.8

18.524.5

33.614.3

25.7-11.2

4.9-56.4

-39.414.58.5

i business;ones

Nonfarm

6.49.6

15.216.0

-10.513.921.925.48.6

-4.510.9

-23.1

24.16.2

-27.68.8

-2.3-53.7

-39.0-10.3

18.4



EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT—NONFARMBUSINESSAccording to the Commerce Department October-November survey, nonfarm business spending for new plant andequipment for the year 1983 is expected to be 4.2 percent below the 1982 level. Spending in 1982 was 1.6percent below the 1981 level.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)500

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)500SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

400

300

200

400

300

200

TOTAL NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT\

100

80

60

40

^**^"^ NONMANUINONMANUFACTUR1NG

—7'MANUFACTURING

100

80

60

40

I I I I I I 1 I I I I i I I'-L/

I I I

1976 1977

_!/ SEE FOOTNOTE BELOW

SOURCE.- DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984



Period

197519761977197819791980198119821983 4

1982: HIIV

1983: InIIIr.....IV4

1984: I 4

II4

Total

157.71171.45198.08231.24270.46295.63321.49316.43303.20

313.76303.18

293.03293.46304.70321.60

323.07325.42

Plant

65.2371.1280.1992.63

105.75117.57133.35134.58

134.43127.32

125.40125.60130.59

Equip-ment

92.48100.33117.89138.60164.68178.06188.14181.86

179.33175.86

167.62167.86174.12

M

Total

54.9259.9569.2279.7298.68

115.81126.79119.68111.18

118.26110.23

109.86108.79111.12114.97

119.00120.96

anufacturin

Durablegoods

26.3328.4734.0440.4851.0758.9161.8456.4451.45

56.6150.51

50.7448.4853.0653.52

57.1858.09

g

Nondur-able

goods

28.5931.4735.1839.2947.6156.9064.9563.2359.74

61.6559.72

59.1260.3158.0661.45

61.8162.86

Plan

Total

102.79111.50128.87151.52171.77179.81194.70196.75192.01

195.51192.95

183.17184.67193.59206.62

204.08204.47

t and equip]

Mining

6.107.449.24

10.2111.3813.5116.8615.4512.00

14.5713.41

12.0310.9111.9313.14

12.2513.68

ment

Nonmanu

Trans-portation

8.688.899.40

10.6812.3512.0912.0511.9511.25

11.2912.33

11.0410.8811.0012.10

10.7811.42

facturing

Publicutilities

19.9822.3726.7929.9533.9635.4438.4041.9542.62

43.0243.00

41.6141.4842.2245.17

41.8242.30

Tradeand

serv-ices *

46.2349.3056.5468.6679.2681.7986.3386.9588.02

86.8884.36

82.3885.8591.0692.79

96.9895.03

Commu-nication

andother2

21.8023.5126.9032.0234.8336.9941.0640.4638.11

39.7539.84

36.1135.5437.3843.42

42.2542.03

Starts ofplant and

equip-ment

projects,manufac-turing 3

56.5959.3977.7388.41

113.50123.58135.61104.35

25.3123.62

23.3527.7129.98

1 Wholesale and retail trade; finance, insurance, and real estate; and personal, business, and pro-fessional services.

2 "Other" consists of construction; social services and membership organizations; and forestry,fisheries, and agricultural services.

3 Starts are estimated by adding changes in carryover to expenditures during given period.4 Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in late October and November 1983, cor-

rected for biases.


10


EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGESSTATUS OF THE LABOR FORCESeasonally adjusted civilian employment rose 743,000 in November and unemployment fell 522,000.

MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS*

*16 Y E A R S OF AGE AND OVEkSOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted]

Period

19771978 4

1979198019811982

1982: NovDec

1983: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSept...r.OctNov

Noninstitu-tional

populationincludingresidentArmedForces

160,689163,541166,460169,349171,775173,939

Unadju

174,718174,864

175,021175,169175,320175,465175,622175,793175,970176,122176,297176,474176,636

Resi-dent

ArmedForces

,656,631,597,604,645,668

sted

1,6601,665

1,6671,6641,6641,6711,6691,6681,6641,6821,6951,6951,685

Total laborforce

includingresidentArmedForces

100,665103,882106,559108,544110,315111,872

112,702112,794

112,215112,217112,148112,457112,418113,600113,539113,943114,063113,510113,721

Totalemploy-

mentincludingresidentArmedForces

93,67397,679

100,421100,907102,042101,194

100,796100,758

100,770100,727100,767101,129101,226102,454102,949103,245103,640103,623104,356

J

Civilianlabor force

99,009102,251104,962106,940108,670110,204

111,042111,129

110,548110,553110,484110,786110,749111,932111,875112,261112,368111,815112,036

Total

92,01796,04898,82499,303

100,39799,526

99,13699,093

99,10399,06399,10399,45899,557

100,786101,285101,563101,945101,928102,671

Civilian er

Agricul-tural

3,2833,3873,3473,3643,3683,401

Seasonally

3,4663,411

3,4123,3933,3753,3713,3673,5223,5273,4893,2903,2023,232

nployment

Nonag

Total

88,73492,66195,47795,93897,03096,125

Y adjusted

95,67095,682

95,69195,67095,72996,08896,19097,26497,75898,07498,65598,72699,440

ricultural

Part-timefor

economicreasons l

3,3693,2983,3734,0644,4995,852

6,4116,425

6,8456,4816,2026,0825,9285,7295,6365,7896,1065,6705,893

Unempk

Total

6,9916,2026,1377,6378,273

10,678

11,90612,036

11,44611,49011,38111,32811,19211,14610,59010,69910,4239,8869,364

)yment

15weeks

andover

1,9421,4141,2411,8712,2853,485

4,5244,732

4,6344,6184,6154,3564,5174,5894,4174,0203,8503,6133,527

Laborparticijrate (pe

Total 2

62.663.564.064.164.264.3

64.564.5

64.164.164.064.164.064.664.564.764.764.364.4

forcemtionrcent)

Civil-ian 3

62.363.263.763.863.964.0

64.264.2

63.863.763.663.763.764.364.264.464.464.064.0

1 Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find full-time work, etc.

2 Total labor force as percent of noninstitutional population (both including resident ArmedForeesK

3 Civilian labor force as percent of civilian noninstitutional population.

28-861 0 - 8 3 - 2

4 Data beginning 1978 not strictly comparable with earlier data because of revisions in the house-hold survey, which added about 250,000 to labor force and to employment.

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

11


SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATESThe seasonally adjusted overall unemployment rate, which includes resident Armed Forces in the labor force, fell toi

8.2 percent in November from 8.7 percent in October. The unemployment rate for all civilian workers fell to 8.4

percent in November from 8.8 percent in October.

PER

25

20

15

10

5

0

CENT* (SEASO

'VV A~WV

'"•"'•.fiiin ' "

i 1 1 1 1 1 i 1 i 1 11979

* UNEMPLOYMENT ASSOURCE: DEPARTMEN

NALLY ADJUS

*s***\t1

•+9

ALL C

/ •^-^X""",,,,,/

Vfrt*

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 11980

PERCENT OF CIVILIAT OF LABOR

TED)

Ah

^

IVILIAN

" " L/"*""

'*••«...«"»„

/

WHIT

1 I I l I19

M LABOR F

BLACK4D OTh

\

<•'!

***'t

WORK

0^ <?**

E

M i l l81

ORCE IN G

+sER ,'

V"*

^*ltRsX,J

r/"'-'

I I 1 I ! I 1 I I I i

1982

ROUP SPECIFIED.

i -

* t«%

\%

%

'"•••••xX'«„\

I I I I I I ! I I I I1983

PER

25

20

15

10

5

0

CENT*

^*%

mi — i »_,,_

'««!«

I I I 1 1

19

(SEASO

'*V¥

lAr r

,,!«*'*

1 i 1 | 1

79

NALLY ADJUS

f'Vu1

WOMEhAN

st^vF"j- _^^ ''*/

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11980

TED)

^t

/^ —

r».A/TEENAGERS

(16-19)

20 YEARSD OVER

, ^/^

MEN 20 >AND O

I 1 1 1 I I I 1 I 1 11981

* 1

/*

^&fEARSVER

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11982

COUNCIL OF E

i /%A«% isi1

^

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11983

CONOMIC ADVISERS

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

197719781979198019811982

1982: Nov...Dec...

1983: Jan...Feb ...Mar...Apr ...May...June..July ..Aug...Sept ..Oct....Nov...

Unem-ploymentrate, allwork-ers 1

6.96.05.8-7.07.59.5

10.610.7

10.210.210.110.110.09.89.39.49.18.78.2

Allcivilianwork-

ers

7.16.15.87.17.69.7

10.710.8

10.410.410.310.210.110.09.59.59.38.88.4

B

Men20 yearsand over

5.24.34.25.96.38.8

10.010.1

9.69.99.69.89.69.08.88.88.78.27.8

y sex and a

Women20 years

andover

7.06.05.76.46.88.3

9.09.2

9.08.98.88.48.58.67.98.07.87.47.1

Unemp]

ge

Bothsexes16-19years

17.816.416.117.819.623.2

24.224.5

22.722.223.523.423.023.622.823.021.821.619.9

oyment ra

White

6.25.25.16.36.78.6

9.69.7

9.19.29.08.98.98.68.28.28.17.77.3

te (percen

By race

Black ai

Total

13.111.911.313.114.217.3

18.518.8

19.018.018.518.818.618.917.918.117.216.615.8

t of civilia

id other

Black

14.012.812.314.315.618.9

20.220.8

20.819.719.920.820.620.619.520.019.018.117.3

n labor force

Experi-enced

wage andsalary

workers

6.65.65.56.97.39.3

10.510.7

10.110.110.19.99.89.49.09.18.88.58.0

in group)

By s

Marriedmen,

spousepresent

3.62.82.84.24.36.5

7.67.8

7.17.27.17.17.06.66.16.36.15.85.5

elected grou]

Womenwho

maintainfamilies

9.48.58.39.2

10.411.7

12.513.2

13.213.013.513.212.912.811.611.612.211.110.3

)S

Full-time

workers

6.65.65.36.97.39.6

10.610.8

10.310.410.310.29.99.79.49.49.28.78.2

Part-time

workers

9.99.08.88.89.4

10.5

11.311.1

10.610.110.510.611.012.110.210.110.09.89.6

Laborforce

time lost(per-

cent) 2

7.66.56.37.98.5

11.0

12.412.7

11.712.011.811.411.510.810.410.610.610.09.8

1 Unemployed as percent of total labor force including resident Armed Forces.2 Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part time for economic reasons as per-

cent of potentially available labor force hours.


12


SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENTINSURANCE PROGRAMSm November, the percentage of unemployed persons who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks fell, thepercentage out of work for 5-14 weeks was unchanged, and the percentages out of work for 15-26 weeks andfor more than 27 weeks rose. Both measures of average duration of unemployment—the mean and the median—were again about unchanged at 20.2 and 9.4 weeks, respectively.

PERCENT DISTRIBUTION

70DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT

PERCENT DISTRIBUTION*70

20

10 -

60

50

40

30

20

1979

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

1983 1979

REENTRANTS

\S-

1980 1981

\

REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT

• >*%•*..\s

NEW ENTRANTS

JOB LEAVERS

i i i i i I i i i i1982 1983


[Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

1978197919801981 .....1982

1982: NovDec

1983: JanFebMarApr..MayJuneJulyAugSeptOctNov

Unemploy-ment

(thousands)

6,2026,1377,6378,273

10,678

11,90612,036

11,44611,49011,38111,32811,19211,14610,59010,69910,4239,8869,364

P

Lessthan

5weeks

46.248.143.141.736.4

32.932.9

30.832.630.732.131.932.832.734.236.235.634.8

Dur

srcent dis

5-14weeks

31.031.732.330.731.0

29.528.3

28.927.128.128.527.026.126.128.326.927.827.8

ation of i

tribution

15-26weeks

12.411.513.813.616.0

18.217.4

16.816.816.715.015.714.717.114.712.913.814.5

memployi

i

27 'weeks

andover

10.48.7

10.714.016.6

19.421.3

23.523.524.524.425.326.424.222.924.022.822.9

ment

Numbe

Aver-age

(mean)

11.910.811.913.715.6

17.318.0

19.419.019.119.020.422.021.719.920.220.120.2

r of

Medi-an

5.95.46.56.98.7

10.010.1

11.59.6

10.311.312.311.89.98.99.19.39.4

Re

Joblosers

41.742.951.751.658.7

61.660.6

59.160.260.459.760.558.458.557.957.355.954.9

ason for \percent d

Jobleav-ers

14.114.311.711.27.9

6.66.9

7.47.58.07.27.27.07.07.28.39.09.4

inemployistributio

Reen-trants

29.929.425.225.422.3

21.321.8

23.122.021.522.021.121.722.923.622.524.023.6

ment:n 1

Newentrants

14.313.311.411.911.1

10.410.7

10.410.310.211.011.212.911.611.311.911.112.1

Statprogra

Insuredunem-

ployment

W

2,3592,4343,3503,0474,057

4,6354,428

3,9413,9073,8943,8323,5863,3293,1102,9912,896

r 2,8482,799

eims

Initialclaims

eekly av«

346388488460583

618546

509485493484458411384414393403405

Insuredunem-

ployment,all

regularprograms(unadjust-

ed)2

jrage, thousa

2,6452,5923,8373,4104,590

4,6355,074

5,4595,4375,1344,6423,9473,4813,2752,9172,5802,478

opecia

ploymentbenefitclaims(unad-

justed) 3

nds

897708

936953691

1,1171,4451,086

849737655522901

1 Detail may not add to 100 percent because of rounding.2 Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ex-service-

men (UCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (RR) programs. Also includes Federal and State ex-tended benefit programs. Does not include Federal supplemental compensation program.

3 Federal supplemental compensation program.

Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Adminis-tration).

13


NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENTTotal nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose 370,000 in November.

MILLIONS OF PERSONS*

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

:?=*-— •

-

-

iiiiiliuii1979

1 — iALLNES

GOODS-IND

"^ 'IIllllllllll

1980

r-hONAGRICUlJABLISHMEh

SERVICE-PFINDUS

PRODUCINGUSTRIES

A..-.JMll l l lHI l

1981

r iTURALJTS

ODUCINGJRIES

Illllllllll1982

—— * "

-

-

-

Illllllllll1983

MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE)22

20

18

16

14

22

20

18

WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE

l l l l t l l lHI

SERVICES

GOVERNMENT

.A.I l l l l l l l l l l I l l l l l l l l l l iiiiiliini

MANUFACTURING

CONSTRUCTION

1979Mlll l lHIl IlllillUII

'SEASONALLY ADJUSTEDSOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

1980 1981 1982 1983


[Thousands of wage and salary workers; * seasonally adjusted]

Period

197719781979198019811982

1982: NovDec

1983: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJuly......AugSept r....Get r

Nov "....

rri f Oilotainonagri-

employ-ment

82,47186,69789,82390,40691,15689,596

88,78588,665

88,88588,74688,81489,09089,42189,84490,152

r 89,74890,85191,05591,425

Total 2

24,34625,58526,46125,65825,49723,907

23,13123,061

23,18623,04923,03023,15923,34723,51823,72423,83023,93524,16424,309

Goods-

Con-struction

3,8514,2294,4634,3464,1883,911

3,8433,815

3,9053,7903,7573,7863,8603,9333,9744,0144,0384,0614,099

jroducing in<

IV!

Total

19,68220,50521,04020,28520,17018,853

18,22218,193

18,24418,24518,26718,37618,49318,58218,73318,79318,87119,06019,174

ustries

anufacturing

Durablegoods

11,59712,27412,76012,18712,10911,100

10,57710,559

10,59410,60810,61710,68910,78810,84410,96111,02211,08111,23111,312

Nondur-able

goods

8,0868,2318,2808,0988,0617,753

7,6457,634

7,6507,6377,6507,6877,7057,7387,7727,7717,7907,8297,862

Total

58,12561,11363,36364,74865,65965,689

65,65465,604

65,69965,69765,78465,93166,07466,32666,428

r 65,91866,91666,89167,116

Transpor-tation and

publicutilities

4,7134,9235,1365,1465,1655,081

5,0195,008

4,9794,9664,9634,9884,9934,9924,9844,3415,0315,0205,018

Service-p

Whole-sale and

retailtrade

18,51619,54220,19220,31020,54720,401

20,32020,256

20,35520,34320,35020,32920,35620,49420,52920,58020,61220,65620,665

roducing ind

Finance,insurance,and realestate

4,4674,7244,9755,1605,2985,340

5,3565,367

5,3745,3845,3915,4235,4355,4515,4655,4885,4995,5045,522

ustries

Services

15,30316,25217,11217,89018,61919,064

19,18719,215

19,23819,26219,35619,47819,54619,66819,77019,83519,91319,97220,121

Gover

Federal

2,7272,7532,7732,8662,7722,739

2,7462,747

2,7482,7422,7422,7382,7562,7422,738

r 2,7462,7782,7682,771

nment

Stateandlocal

12,39912,91913,17413,37513,25913,064

13,02613,011

13,00513,00012,98212,97512,98812,97912,94212,92813,08312,97113,019

1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments whoworked during or received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month.Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces.Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of thecivilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domesticservants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial dis-

putes, bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sampleof the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from em-ploying establishments.

« Includides mining, not shown separately.


14


AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGSPRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES

[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

197419751976197719781979198019811982

1982: NovDec

1983: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSeptOct r

Novp

Totalprivate

nonagricul-tural l

36.536.136.136.035.835.735.335.234.8

34.734.8

35.134.534.834.935.135.135.035.035.235.335.2

\verage weeklyhours

Manufa

Total

40.039.540.140.340.440.239.739.838.9

39.039.0

39.739.239.540.140.040.140.240.340.840.640.5

cturing

Overtime

3.32.63.13.53.63.32.82.82.3

2.32.3

2.42.42.62.92.72.93.03.13.33.43.3

Average giearn

Totalprivate

nonagricul-tural l

$4.244.534.865.255.696.166.667.257.67

7.787.82

7.887.917.917.957.978.008.037.988.088.128.11

oss hourlyings

Manufactur-ing

$4.424.835.225.686.176.707.277.998.50

8.618.63

8.688.768.758.788.798.828.858.848.878.938.98

Adjuste

Ind1977 =

Currentdollars

80.086.792.9

100.0108.2116.8127.3138.9148.3

151.1151.9

152.7153.4153.4154.0154.6154.8155.2155.0155.9156.7156.7

d hourly earninnonagric

ex,= 100

1977dollars 3

98.397.699.0

100.0100.597.493.592.693.3

93.494.1

94.795.395.094.894.794.894.794.094.294.494.1

ys index — totalultural 2

Percent changearlie

Currentdollars

8.08.47.27.68.27.99.09.16.8

5.76.0

5.45.75.45.24.84.64.33.63.94.03.7

private

e from a yearr 4 5

1977 dollars

-2.8.7

1.41.0.5

-3.1-4.0-1.0

.8

1.12.0

1.82.41.61.21.42.12.11.21.21.4.8

AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGSPRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES

[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

197419751976197719781979198019811982 ,

1982: OctNovDec

1983: JanFebMarApr ,MayJuneJulyAugSeptr

Oct r

Nov"

Total ]nonagric

Current dollars

$154.76163.53175.45189.00203.70219.91235.10255.20266.92

269.27269.97272.14

276.59272.90275.27277.46279.75280.80281.05279.30284.42286.64285.47

Avera

privateultural 1

1977 dollars 3

$190.12184.16186.85189.00189.31183.41172.74170.13167.87

166.32166.96168.61

.171.48169.61170.45170.85171.42171.85171.37169.48171.85172.57171.56

£e gross weekly ea

Manufacturing

$176.80190.79209.32228.90249.27269.34288.62318.00330.65

333.76335.79336.57

344.60343.39345.63352.08351.60353.68355.77356.25361.90362.56363.69

rmngs

Construction

Current dollars

$249.25266.08283.73295.65318.69342.99367.78399.26426.45

427.25426.24437.18

461.35439.20438.00443.54441.19440.82440.89440.08448.50433.16431.34

Wholesale andretail trade

$119.02126.45133.79142.52153.64164.96176.46190.62198.10

200.65200.98203.19

202.57200.65202.88203.83205.76207.68207.67207.34207.97211.54211.54

Percent cha year

total private n<

Current dollars

6.45.77.37.77.88.06.98.54.6

3.43.44.4

6.83.14.34.74.64.94.83.76.06.45.7

ange fromearlier,magricultural 5

1977 dollars

-4.13.11.51.2.2

-3.15.8

-1.51.3

-1.6-1.1

.5

3.1.2.6.7

1.22.42.51.33.23.72.8

1 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14.2 Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in manufacturing.3 Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index on a 1977 = 100 base.

Revised index for urban wage earners and clerical workers used beginning 1978.

4 Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places.5 Based on unadjusted data.


15


PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR

Period

1969

19701971197219731974

19751976197719781979

198019811982

1981: IIIIV

1982: IIIIllIV

1983: IIIIll

1969

19701971197219731974

19751976197719781979

198019811982

1981: IIIIV

1982: IIIIllIV

1983: IIIIll

Output pcallpe

Businesssector

85.5

86.289.292.494.792.5

94.597.6

100.0100.699.4

98.9101.3101.2

102.3101.2

101.1100.7101.1101.9

102.5103.8104.7

0.2

.83.63.52.6

-2.4

2.23.32.4

.6-1.2

-.52.4-.1

4.7-4.1

-.4-1.6

1.73.3

2.05.43.5

r hour ofrsons

Nonfarmbusinesssector

86.5

86.889.793.095.392.9

94.797.8

100.0100.699.1

98.4100.3100.2

101.199.9

100.099.9

100.4100.8

101.7103.3104.1

-0.3

.33.33.72.4

-2.5

2.03.22.2

.6-1.5

-.71.9

— .1

3.8-4.4

.1— .42.31.3

3.76.63.1

Outj

Businesssector

79.0

78.480.786.191.789.9

88.293.8

100.0105.5107.8

106.5109.8106.7

111.2108.9

107.2106.9106.6106.0

107.1110.2112.6

2.9

-.83.06.66.6

-2.0

-2.06.46.65.52.3

-1.33.1

-2.8

5.2-7.8

6.3-1.0-1.1-2.3

4.212.29.0

ut l


78.8

78.080.385.891.789.8

87.893.7

100.0105.7108.0

106.5109.3106.3

110.5108.2

106.5106.7106.5105.4

106.7110.0112.6

Pei

2.9

-1.02.96.96.8

-2.0

-2.26.76.75.72.2

1.42.7

-2.8

4.3-8.3

-6.2.8

-.6-4.1

4.913.29.8

Hoursperse

Businesssector

19'

92.5

91.090.593.296.897.3

93.396.0

100.0104.9108.5

107.6108.4105.4

108.7107.7

106.0106.2105.4104.0

104.5106.2107.6

rcent chan

2.6

-1.65

3.03.9

.4

—4.13.04.14.93.5

-.8.7

-2.7

.5-3.9

-6.0.6

-2.7-5.4

2.16.55.3

of allms 2

Nonfarmbusiness

sector

f7 = 100; (

91.1

89.889.592.396.296.7

92.795.8

100.0105.0109.0

108.2109.0106.0

109.4108.2

106.5106.8106.0104.6

104.9106.5108.2

ge; quarte

3.2

-1.3.4

3.14.3

.5

4.13.44.45.03.7

.7

.72.7

.5-4.0

-6.21.2

-2.9-5.3

1.26.26.5

Compenshou

Businesssector

quarterly c

54.2

58.262.066.171.378.0

85.592.9

100.0108.6118.7

131.2143.9155.1

145.5148.2

151.6153.9156.5158.7

160.7162.1164.2

rly data al

7.0

7.36.66.58.09.4

9.68.67.78.69.4

10.59.77.7

9.67.5

9.46.46.75.7

5.43.55.3

ation perr 3


ata seasoi

54.8

58.762.566.771.778.5

86.093.0

100.0108.6118.4

130.7143.5154.7

145.1147.7

151.3153.5156.1158.3

161.0162.7164.4

seasoiiall

6.5

7.06.66.77.69.4

9.68.17.58.69.0

10.49.87.8

9.67.6

10.05.87.25.8

6.84.34.2

Real comper h

Businesssector

tally adjus

89.6

90.892.895.797.395.9

96.398.9

100.0100.999.1

96.595.997.4

95.695.6

97.197.497.198.0

99.499.299.4

y adjusted

1.5

1.32.23.11.6

-1.4

.52.61.2.9

-1.7

-2.6-.61.5

-2.2.3

6.31.1

-1.03.7

5.8!J

.5

pensationour 4


ted

90.6

91.593.596.697.896.4

96.899.0

100.0100.998.9

96.195.697.1

95.395.4

96.997.196.997.8

99.599.699.4

annual ra

1.1

1.02.23.31.3

-1.4

.42.2

. 1.0.9

-2.0

-2.8-.61.6

-2.1.3

6.8.5

-.63.7

7.2.1

-.5

UnitCO

Businesssector

63.4

67.569.571.575.384.4

90.595.1

100.0108.0119.5

132.7142.1153.3

142.3146.4

149.9152.9154.7155.6

156.9156.2156.9

tes

6.7

6.42.92.95.3

12.1

7.35.15.18.0

10.7

11.17.17.9

4.712.2

9.88.15.02.3

3.3-1.8

1.8

laborst


63.4

67.669.771.775.384.5

90.895.1

100.0108.0119.5

132.8143.0154.4

143.5147.8

151.3153.6155.4157.1

158.3157.4157.9

6.8

6.63.12.85.0

12.2

7.54.85.28.0

10.7

11.17.77.9

5.612.6

9.96.24.74.4

3.0-2.1

1.1

Implieidefla

Businesssector

63.2

66.069.071.375.382.4

90.494.7

100.0107.5117.2

128.1140.1147.7

141.5144.3

145.5147.5148.5149.4

151.5152.7153.6

4.9

4.54.43.45.59.5

9.84.75.67.59.0

9.29.45.4

9.98.2

3.45.52.72.6

5.53.32.5

t pricetor 5


63.3

66.369.371.374.081.6

90.094.6

100.0107.1116.5

128.1140.4148.6

141.8145.0

146.4148.3149.1150.5

152.4153.6154.6

4.7

4.84.53.03.8

10.2

10.35.15.77.18.8

10.09.65.8

10.09.5

3.75.42.23.7

5.33.22.5

1 Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1972 dollars.2 Hours of all persons in private industry engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors

and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data.3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private

benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the self-employed.

4 Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index.

5 Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product.

NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector.Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may

differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here.


16


PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITYINDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATIONIndustrial production rose 0.8 percent in November, the same as the revised October increase. The index forNovember was 15.9 percent above its year earlier level.

INDEX, 1967 = 100* (RATIO SCALE)

180

160

140

120

..TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

1979 1980 1981 1982

INDEX, 1967 = 100* (RATIO SCALE)

160

140

1983

180

160

140

120

_MANUFA

.*•--""*"-

-Vx—

|1M1|1979

CTURING F

\ r**

%-'

-\

Vu ml ii 1 1 1

1980

>RODUCTIC

NONDt*""~***\/

V

^ .

ADURABLE

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1981

>N

JRABLE

/•*«*^~-«.

^ "-N .\^

1 f i l l ll U 1 I

1982

^**

s*

^/yr

| 1 1 II 1 1 1 1 1 |

1983

180 -UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION

1983

90

80

70

60

MANUFACTURING CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE

1979*SEASONALLY ADJUSTEDSOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE i

1982 1983


[Seasonally adjusted]

Period

1967 proportion

19731974197519761977197819791980198119821982: Nov

Dec1983: Jan

FebMarAprMayJuneJulyAug r

Septr

Octr

Nov"

Toindusprodu

Index,1967 = 100

100.00

129.8129.3117.8130.5138.2146.1152.5147.0151.0138.6134.9135.2137.4138.1140.0142.6144.4146.4149.7151.8153.9155.1156.3

taltrialction

Percentchange

from yearearlier

8.4-.48.9

10.85.95.74.4

-3.62.7

-8.2-7.8-5.7-2.3

3.4-1.2

1.73.75.67.99.7

12.114.315.9

Total

87.95

129.8129.4116.3130.3138.4146.8153.6146.7150.4137.6134.0134.5136.7138.2140.4143.1145.1147.4150.6152.8155.1156.3157.5

Industry prod

Manufacturing

Durable

51.98127.1125.7109.3122.3130.0139.7146.4136.7140.5124.7119.3119.9122.5123.9126.3129.1131.0133.2136.8138.8141.5142.8144.1

uction indexes

Nondurable

35. £7133.8134.6126.4141.8150.5156.9164.0161.2164.8156.2155.3155.6157.4159.0160.7163.3165.4167.8170.6172.9174.8175.9176.7

1967 = 100

Mining

6.36114.7115.3112.8114.2118.2124.0125.5132.7142.2126.1116.8118.4121.9115.6112.6111.6112.8112.6115.0116.1116.8118.7120.5

Utilities

5.69145.4143.7146.0151.7156.5161.4166.0168.3169.1168.7166.7164.2163.1162.0165.8169.3169.7169.8176.0179.3179.3177.9178.9

Capacity u

Manufa

FederalReserve

series

87.683.772.979.682.284.786.079.679.471.168.868.970.070.671.672.973.874.976.477.378.478.979.4

tilization rate

eturing

Com-merce

series 2

86.083.077.081.083.084.083.078.076.070.0

67.5

69.8

73.3

75.5

, percent *

Industrialmaterials(FederalReserveseries)

91.787.073.381.182.685.687.680.480.770.167.066.668.770.171.572.573.574.476.577.478.779.480.0

1 Output as percent of capacity.2 Annual data are averages of the four monthly indexes.

Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Department of Commerce(Bureau of Economic Analysis).

17


INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS ANDSELECTED MANUFACTURES

[1967 = 100, seasonally adjusted]

Period

1967 proportion19731974197519761977197819791980198119821982: Nov

Dec1983: Jan

PebMarAprMayJuneJulyAug r

Sepf.Oetr

Nov"

Total

47.82124.4125.1118.2127.6135.9142.2147.2145.3149.5141.5138.3139.5140.1138.9139.9142.8144.5146.4149.0150.7152.1153.3154.2

Cc

Total

27.68131.5128.9124.0137.1145.3149.1150.8145.4147.9142.6141.3142.0143.6143.4144.3147.7150.4152.4154.8156.3157.4158.0158.3

F

nsumer goo

Durablegoods

7.89146.2135.3121.4141.9154.0159.2155.8136.7140.5129.2124.6125.9131.6134.4136.3140.5145.5149.2152.9154.2157.4156.7156.4

inal produc

.ds

Nondur-able

goods

19.79125.6126.3125.1135.2141.9145.1148.8148.9150.9148.0147.9148.4148.3147.0147.5150.5152.3153.6155.6157.1157.5158.5159.0

Prod

ts

Total

20.14114.5120.0110.2114.6123.0132.8142.2145.2151.8139.8134.2136.1135.3132.7133.8136.2136.5138.2141.0143.1144.9146.9148.7

ucts

Equipment

Business

12.63134.2142.4128.2135.4147.8160.3171.3173.2181.1157.9146.4148.1146.6142.7143.7146.9147.7150.2153.3156.6158.6161.1163.2

Defenseand

spaceequip-ment

7.5181.482.480.079.881.386.593.498.2

102.7109.4113.6115.9116.4116.1117.0118.2117.6118.0120.4120.2121.8123.1124.3

Interi

Total

12.89137.2135.3123.1137.2145.1154.1160.5151.9154.4143.3141.8141.5143.7145.3147.8150.8152.2154.5158.1162.2165.3165.7166.7

mediate pro

Con-structionsupplies

6.42139.8134.5116.3132.6140.6151.7158.0140.9141.9124.3123.4123.0127.0129.7133.1136.4138.4142.1145.8149.0151.1151.9152.4

ducts

n •

supplies

6.47134.6136.0129.7141.7149.5156.5163.1162.8166.7162.1160.1159.8160.3160.9162.3165.2166.0166.8170.4175.3179.3179.4

Materi-als

39.29133.9132.4115.5131.7138.6148.3156.4147.6151.6133.7128.4127.8132.0134.9137.6139.7141.7143.7147.8149.7152.3153.8155.3

Supple-mentarygroup:Energy

total

12.23128.3125.5125.5129.1132.9135.4137.9137.7137.4135.7133.3132.2132.4131.0131.9133.9133.8133.6138.5139.4139.0138.6139.3

[1967 = 100, seasonally adjusted]

Period

1967 proportion19731974197519761977197819791980198119821982: Nov

Dec1983: Jan

FebMarApr.MayJuneJulyAug r

Sept r

Oct r

Nov P

Primary

Total

6.57126.7123.196.4

109.7111.1119.9121.3102.3107.9

75.363.663.573.177.981.283.184.984.885.587.590.594.796.6

metals

Iron andsteel

4.21122.3119.895.8

104.8103.8113.2113.292.499.861.747.546.659.064.366.968.569.569.771.875.178.284.1

Fabricat-ed metalproducts

5.93124.7124.2109.9123.9131.0141.6148.5134.1136.4114.8107.0107.3107.6110.3113.9115.3115.5118.5122.7126.0127.4128.4129.3

Durable mi

Non-electrical

machinery

9.15133.7140.1125.1134.5143.6153.6163.7162.8171.2149.0139.6139.2138.0136.2138.6143.1146.1149.5154.2157.3158.2158.9160.8

mufactures

Electricalmachinery

8.05143.1143.8116.5134.8145.4159.4175.0172.8178.4169.3165.5165.5169.5168.9173.8177.2180.1182.4188.3189.2195.6197.9199.8

Transp<equip

Total

9.27118.3108.797.4

111.1122.2132.5135.4116.9116.1104.9100.2103.7106.3109.6110.1111.4113.8116.6119.7121.1124.7125.5126.3

>rtationment

Motorvehicles

and parts

4.50148.8128.2111.1142.0161.1169.9159.9119.0122.3109.8101.7108.8113.9123.0123.2125.5130.4136.2142.3144.3150.9150.9152.2

Lumberand

products

1.64126.0116.2107.6123.2131.2136.3136.9119.3119.1112.6119.1121.4130.0130.2128.7132.1135.8137.4141.3141.6142.3141.0

1*

Apparelproducts

3.31117.3114.3107.6125.7134.2134.2134.4127.0120.4

iondurable i

Printingand

publish-ing

4.72118.2118.2113.3122.5127.6131.5136.9139.6144.2144.1141.7142.8141.3144.0145.9145.7145.2147.4152.0157.8161.2162.1164.0

manufacture

Chemi-cals andproducts

7.74154.5159.4147.2170.9185.7197.4211.8207.1215.6196.1192.8195.9197.6202.3205.7208.5211.0214.7218.3220.3224.2227.3

s

Foods

8.75120.9124.0123.4133.0138.8142.7147.5149.6152.1151.1152.0152.8154.4153.0152.0153.7155.6157.7159.9159.3158.2

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Eeserve System.

18


NEW CONSTRUCTION[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

19751976197719781979198019811982

1982: GetNov.....Dee

1983: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJuly ,AugSept r

Get"Nov*

Total newconstructionexpenditures

135.9151.1173.8205.6230.4230.7239.4232.0

234.1243.7240.2

247.9243.0241.9247.4254.8264.3269.6

r 274.7276.4269.5

Total

95.1112.0135.7159.7181.6175.7186.1181.0

181.9190.5190.8

195.0194.3194.9199.5206.0214.7218.5221.4224.0218.1

Resit

Total1

I

46.560.581.093.499.087.386.674.8

76.481.286.0

89.793.696.1

102.0107.5113.5118.2120.2120.8117.1

Private

iential

New housing

lillions of dollars

34.447.365.775.878.663.162.751.9

Annual rates

53.655.858.6

63.468.872.377.382.287.992.794.895.091.0

Commercialand industrial

20.819.922.529.639.943.851.354.6

54.154.652.6

53.351.049.746.846.349.048.150.550.147.2

Other

27.831.532.236.742.744.748.251.5

51.454.752.2

52.049.849.050.752.252.252.250.753.253.7

Federal,State, and

local

40.939.138.245.948.855.053.351.1

52.253.249.4

52.948.747.047.948.749.651.1

r53.352.451.4

Constructio

Total valueindex

(1977 = 100)

66.079.0

100.0114.0122.0107.0

r 110.0111.0

105122131

127119131129148151137146143139145

n contracts 2


floor space(millions ofsquare feet)

555592739977

1,059904906685

Annual rates

656608595

803693632652734785741783830856884

1 Includes nonhousekeeping residential construction and additions and alterations, not shown sep-arately.

2 F. W. Dodge series. Relates to 50 States beginning 1969 for value index and beginning 1971for floor space.

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information SystemsCompany, F. W. Dodge Division.

NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES[Thousands of units or homes, except as noted]

Period

19751976197719781979198019811982

1982: NovDec

1983: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSept r.Oetr

Nov*

Total

1,160.41,537.51,987.12,020.31,745.11,292.21,084.21,062.2

1,3611,280

1,6941,7841,6051,5061,8071,7361,8041,9041,6641,6501,756

Units started, bj

1 unit

892.21,162.41,450.91,433.31,194.1

852.2705.4662.6

868842

1,1261,1031,0081,0011,1831,1271,0321,1351,0311,0101,065

New private

f type of structun

2-4 units

64.085.9

121.7125.0122.0109.591.180.0

Seasonal

7979

10011710011796

12313511011793

161

housing units

3

5 or more units

204.3289.2414.4462.0429.0330.5287.7319.6

ly adjusted annu

414359

468564497388528486637659516547530

Unitsauthorized

939.21,296.21,690.01,800.51,551.81,190.6

985.51,000.5

al rates

1,2271,326

1,4471,4791,4671,5361,6351,7611,7821,6521,5061,6301,642

Unitscompleted

1,317.2,377.2,657.1,867.5,870.8,501.6,265.7

1,005.5

,053,035

,195,138,147,164,353,386

1,432r 1,729

1,4701,588

New pri\

Homes sold

549646819817709545436412

545529

611593611635665658

r594r551610660

rate homes

Homes forsale at end of

period *

313353402414

3 398336272251

246251

259262262266273284

r289r296299299

Vacancy rate

housing units(percent) 2

6.05.65.25.05.45.45.05.3

5.5

5.7

5.5

5.8

1 Seasonally adjusted.* Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Series beginning 1979 not strictly comparable

with earlier data.8 New series beginning March 1979.

NOTE.—Units authorized1973-77 are for 14,000 places.

1978 relate to 16,000 permit-issuing places; data for

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

19


BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and TradeManufacturing and trade sales rose 0.5 percent in October and inventories rose $2.6 billion. According to theadvance survey, total retail sales rose 1.9 percent in November following an increase of 1.4 percent in October.

BILLI600

550

500

450

400'

350

300

250

200

150

100

ONS OF DOL

~ ^*^X^

^^

^+~*

-'^

—

illllllllll1979

'SEASONALLY ADJ

SOURCE: DEPARTM

LARS* (RATK

^— **S~~^

S**

Illllllllll1980

USTED

ENT OF COMMERC

D SCALE)

-"•"l

MANUF/TRADE

-^

MANUFANDTR

I IM l i l l l l !1981

E

•*V -"- «^rp=^ACTURING AINVENTORIE

T-ACTURINGADE SALES

Illllllllll1982

NDS

/**

_

Illllllllll1983

BULK160150140

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

' 60

50

RATIC1.80

1.60

1.40

1.20

DNS OF DOL

_

>-

— ^^r^^-***^

-

t^

—

_

Illllllllll1979

D*

INVENTOF

-V^Ar i

Illllllllll

1979

LARS* (RATK

RET

r *~

+•'

*"'

Illllllllll1980

*Y-SALES R.

MANUFANL

j *^

M l l l l t l M I

1980 1

5 SCALE)

AIL INVENTC\ ^

^^-^

""'rRETAIL SALE

Illllllllll1981

ATIO

ACTURING) TRADE

\ /I

Illllllllll1981

)RIES

p,,, ^

,~'+~~''

S

Illllllllll1982

^\sO S

RETAILIllllllllll

1982

COUNCIL OF ECC

—

^^m

^^^

Jwf^-

'+ _

~~

_

Illllllllll

1983

* L

*~X7*-*

Illllllllll1983

3NOMIC ADVISERS

Period

19751976197719781979198019811982

1982: OctNovDec

1983: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSept r

Octp

Nov"

Manufactitra(

Q 1 2

182,230204,277229,624260,307297,663327,284356,099344,179

336,905338,722338,391

345,337341,490348,009351,100363,925373,572372,434374,434380,583382,407

iring ande l

Inven-tories 3

288,375318,544351,036398,890450,736492,885526,152511,942

519,797513,888511,942

507,550507,665503,222504,796505,658505,521505,826510,430513,883516,465

Whol

Sales 2

46,62350,69455,98766,11778,68092,658

100,67395,363

91,80691,91291,389

94,79092,24592,94392,58697,529

100,479100,315100,644102,791105,044

esale

Inven-tories 3

Millions

56,69764,07872,31185,68598,394

112,341116,986118,790

120,162118,349118,790

117,564116,417116,591117,498115,855115,630115,745116,813118,410120,476

Total

of dollars,

49,01254,78160,43567,28675,04780,23587,29889,640

90,90592,49292,459

92,30891,16493,26395,44998,43199,17399,52197,801

r 99,202r!00,573102,457

Sales 2

Durablegoodsstores

seasonally i

15,24718,15020,72423,21825,19624,40126,33526,739

27,15428,72128,723

28,30727,49029,16030,66832,12432,66332,53930,893

r32,125*B3,09234,401

Re

Nondura-ble goods

stores

idjusted

33,76536,63139,71144,06749,85055,83460,96362,901

63,75163,77163,736

64,00163,67464,10364,78166,30766,51066,98266,90867,077

r67,48168,056

tail

Total

71,74479,27389,530

102,790111,229116,430126,833128,250

128,849127,619128,250

127,869130,392129,327129,901131,654132,501131,905133,783135,452135,173

Inventories 3

Durablegoodsstores

33,35637,84143,13549,98753,71754,40059,09559,597

60,58159,41759,597

59,73561,51760,41260,64061,40162,01961,28462,31364,02163,680

Nondura-ble goods

stores

38,38841,43246,39552,80357,51262,03067,73868,653

68,26868,20268,653

68,13468,87568,91569,26170,25370,48270,62171,47071,43171,493

Inventory-s

Manufac-turingj , jand trade

i

.57

.48

.46

.44

.43

.45

.44

.51

.54

.52

.51

.47

.49

.451.441.391.351.361.361.351.35

ales ratio 4

Retail

1.441.381.401.431.441.421.401.41

1.421.381.39

1.391.431.391.361.341.341.331.371.371.34

1 See page 21 for manufacturing.2 Monthly average for year and total for month.

•3 Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted.

4 For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly sales; for monthlydata, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month.

Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census).

20


MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERSIn October, manufacturers' shipments fell while inventories and orders rose. In November, according to advancedata, durable goods shipments fell and new orders rose.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

^NEW ORDERS-

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)240

200180

160

140

120

100

80

DURABLE GOODS

TOTAL

ffgi-^NONDURABLE GOODS

1980 1981

p*""....,. /

D D S *""»>

*SEASONALLY ADJUSTEDSOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COM

1982 1983

H-INVENTORIES-

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)

360320

280

240

200

160

120

100

80

DURABLE GOODS

NONDURABLE GOODS

INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO

1983

Period

19751976197719781979198019811982

1982: OctNovDec

1983: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSept r

Oetp

Novp

Manufa

Total

86,59598,802

113,202126,905143,936154,391168,129159,177

154,194154,318154,543

158,239158,081161,803163,065167,965173,920172,598175,989178,590176,790

cturers' shipi

Durablegoods

43,65650,68959,26767,84876,06077,55083,87276,843

72,47873,00573,495

77,74477,76979,59580,24182,66986,58285,64687,91888,970

r88,22892,478

nents 1

Nondura-ble goods

42,93948,11353,93559,05767,87676,84184,25782,334

81,71681,31381,048

80,49580,31282,20882,82485,29687,33886,95288,07189,62088,562

Manufac

Total

M

159,934175,193189,195210,415241,113264,114282,333264,902

270,786267,920264,902

262,117260,856257,304257,397258,149257,390258,176259,834260,021260,816

3turers' inven

Durablegoods

illions of do

102,874112,581121,575137,834160,554174,547186,222175,200

179,675177,061175,200

172,506171,572169,377169,814170,734169,840169,693170,576170,385170,628

tones 2

Nondura-ble goods

Hars, seasoi

57,06062,61267,62072,58180,55989,56796,11189,702

91,11190,85989,702

89,61189,28487,92787,58387,41587,55088,48389,25889,63690,188

M

Total

lally adjust*

85,14999,543

115,061131,616147,466156,142167,924157,371

152,362152,604157,382

162,871157,757162,587166,025169,874178,489175,455178,302180,961181,802

anufaeturers

Durable

Total

3d

42,01951,39861,11172,40979,51379,34183,72575,103

70,73571,06776,180

82,35577,44979,95183,10184,45690,90588,23489,97890,996

r93,36697,080

new orders

3 goods

Capitalgoods

industries,non-

defense

11,01112,79915,29119,45823,23123,25924,05920,687

20,12719,98319,679

20,50719,17520,03222,59222,22824,28921,58023,02825,213

r26,00324,854

i

Nondura-ble goods

43,13048,14553,95059,20767,95376,80184,19982,268

81,62781,53781,202

80,51680,30882,63682,92485,41887,58487,22188,32489,96588,436

Manufac-turers'unfilledorders 3

173,829182,499205,675262,671305,453325,908323,346300,971

299,846298,132300,971

305,599305,268306,053309,015310,922315,488318,348320,664323,032328,041

Manufac-turers'inven-tory-

shipmentsratio 4

1.841.691.611.571.571.661.641.73

1.761.741.71

1.661.651.591.581.541.481.501.481.461.48

1 Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales.2 Book value, end of period.3 End of period.

4 For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly shipments; formonthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments for month.


21


PRICESPRODUCER PRICESIn November, the producer price index for all finished goods fell 0.2 percent, seasonally adjusted. Prices offinished consumer foods fell 1.0 percent and prices of other finished consumer goods rose 0.1 percent. Prices ofcapital equipment were unchanged.

INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)320 I

— FINISHED GOODS300

260

240

220

180

160

140

120

INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)

320SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

TOTAL FINISHEDGOODS-

CONSUMER FOODS

\

-CAPITAL EQUIPMENT-—^

1975 1976 1977 1978

CONSUMER GOODSEXCLUDING FOODS

1979 1980 1981 1982

300

280

260

240

220

200

180

160

140

1201933

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1967 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

197519761977197819791980198119821982: Nov

Dec1983: Jan

Feb.MarAprMayJuneJuly r.AugSeptGetNov

Totalfinishedgoods

163.4170.6181.7195.9217.7247.0269.8280.7285.5286.4283.3283.8283.0283.0283.7285.1285.3286.4286.9287.8287.3

Con-sumerfoods

181.0180.4189.9207.2226.2239.5253.6259.3258.2258.8258.3260.9261.4264.2262.9261.4259.5260.7262.4265.3262.7

Fi

Total

156.2166.1177.7190.7213.3247.8273.3285.8292.5293.5289.5289.2288.1287.1288.4290.8291.8292.9293.0293.1293.4

Fin

nished go(

Total

153.1162.6174.3186.7211.5250.8276.5287.8295.8296.7290.8290.0288.0286.7288.3291.4292.5293.2293.7293.6293.9

shed goods

)ds excluding

Consumer gc

Durable

138.2144.5152.8166.9183.2206.2218.6226.7229.8230.4229.6232.2232.6232.4232.9234.0234.1234.7233.8232.8233.9

consumer foo<

)ods

Nondurable

163.0174.8189.3200.0231.3283.9319.6333.6345.3346.4337.3333.7329.7327.4330.0334.7336.7337.4338.9339.6339.3

Is

Capitalequip-ment

162.5173.4184.6199.2216.5239.8264.3279.4283.1284.4283.9285.0285.8285.6286.2287.0287.5289.6288.8289.6289.6

Totalfinished

163.6169.7180.7194.9217.9248.9271.3281.0286.2287.0283.1283.4282.2282.3282.9284.5284.7285.5286.4287.3286.6

Intenr

Total

180.0189.1201.5215.6242.2280.3306.0310.4311.7311.8310.1309.8308.6307.2308.6311.1312.0314.0316.1317.0317.4

ediate ma

Foodsand

feeds 1

195.3185.3190.5203.1226.1252.6250.3239.4233.7234.0236.0239.4239.8246.3245.3243.2242.4250.5260.9258.0256.2

terials

Other

178.6189.4202.3216.5244.4282.3310.1315.7317.4317.5315.6315.0313.7311.9313.3316.2317.2318.8320.3321.5322.0

On

Total

196.9202.7209.2234.4274.3304.6329.0319.5317.3316.6315.8316.8318.9323.9324.1323.6319.7326.5328.0327.2328.3

ide materi

Food-stuffsand

feed-stuffs

191.8190.2192.1216.2247.9259.2257.4247.8239.4240.3243.0248.8250.5258.0255.0251.0244.4254.2254.6255.2255.1

als

Other

206.9228.5245.0272.3330.0401.0482.3473.9484.8480.6472.6463.3466.4466.5472.9479.9481.9482.3486.1482.3485.9

1 Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

22


CONSUMER PRICESIn November, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.3 percent seasonally adjusted (0.2 percentnot seasonally adjusted). The index was 3.2 percent above its level in November 1982.

INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)320

300

280

260

240

220

200

180

160

140

120

INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE}1320

/ALL IT

1975

SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOWSOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

1976 1977 1978

ALL ITEMS

1979 1980 1981

300

280

260

240

220

200

180

160

120

1982 1983


[1967 = 100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

Rel. imp.5

197519761977197819791980198119821982: Nov

Dee1983: Jan

FebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSept.OctNov

Allitems *

NSA

100.0161.2170.5181.5195.4217.4246.8272.4289.1293.6292.4293.1293.2293.4295.5297.1298.1299.3300.3301.8302.6303.1

Food

19.0175.4180.8192.2211.4234.5254.6274.6285.7288.2288.1288.3288.3290.1291.3292.2291.3291.0291.6292.5293.9294.3

Total l

37.7164.5174.6186.5202.8227.6263.3293.5314.7319.9317.4318.9318.9318.7320.4321.5322.1323.4324.2325.8326.6328.1

Total

21.3169.7179.0191.1210.4239.7281.7314.7337.0340.7336.0338.3339.1339.2341.6342.7343.6345.3346.6348.4349.8351.2

Hou

She

Rent-ers'

costs 2

6.9

100.2100.8101.1101.3101.7102.2102.5103.1103.6104.3104.7105.1

sing

Iter

Home-own-ers'

costs 2

NSA

13.9

100.0100.7100.9100.9101.7102.0102.2102.7103.0103.5103.9104.3

Mainte-nanceand

repairs

NSA

0.5187.6199.6214.7233.0256.4285.7314.4334.1339.0337.8342.9339.4339.9343.6344.3345.1346.1347.9346.6351.1353.4

Fueland

otherutilities

8.4167.8182.7202.2216.0239.3278.6319.2350.8367.1369.6368.9366.9365.1365.8368.8368.9370.1371.1373.6373.1375.9

Appar-el andupkeep

5.2142.3147.6154.2159.6166.6178.4186.9191.8193.2192.7193.2194.2194.1194.5195.8196.5197.7198.4198.4198.4198.5

Ti

Total1

21.8150.6165.5177.2185.5212.0249.7280.0291.5296.0295.8293.9289.1289.0292.1295.8297.1298.6301.6304.1305.9306.4

•ansportati

Newcars

3.5127.6135.7142.9153.8166.0179.3190.2197.6198.7199.3199.4201.1202.6201.3200.6200.8200.8202.5204.5205.9206.0

an

Motorfuel3

6.2170.8177.9188.2196.3265.6369.1410.9389.4394.2391.2378.3353.0349.5363.2378.1380.9382.5387.1388.9387.1384.1

Medicalcare

6.0168.6184.7202.4219.4239.7265.9294.5328.7341.8344.4347.2350.1351.7353.3354.8356.4358.4360.3361.7363.0364.4

Ener-.gy 4

12.4176.6189.3207.3220.4275.9361.1410.0416.1430.2431.3

6 420.5404.9401.3409.3419.5420.9422.3425.4428.2426.6426.6

Allitemsless

food,energy,

andshelter

47.3149.4159.9169.5179.1191.5208.3228.1245.6250.7251.9253.1254.2254.9255.5256.1257.0258.5259.7260.9262.4263.5

1 Includes items not shown separately.2 December 1982=100.3 Includes direct pricing of diesel and gasohol beginning September 1981.4 Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel, motor oil, coolant,

etc.5 Relative importance, December 1982.

6 Energy excludes motor oil, coolant, etc. beginning January 1983.NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted.Data beginning 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban wage earners and

clerical workers.Data beginning 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs.Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

23


CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS[Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

1974197519761977 .19781979198019811982

1982: NovDec

1983: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSeptOctNov

Ch

Totalfinishedgoods

Cht

18.36.63.76.99.2

12.811.87.13.7

0

0.6.3

— 1.1.2

-.30

.2

.5

.1

.4

.2

.3-.2

ange from pi

Consumt

Foods

inge, Dec.

13.05.5

-2.56.9

11.77.47.51.42.1

lange, mor

0.2

-.21.0.2

1.1-.5-.6__.7

r.5.7

1.1-1.0

eceding per

r goods

Exclud-ing foods

to Dec., N

20.56.76.06.78.5

17.514.28.54.2

ith to mon

0.9.3

2.0-.3

Y-.5

.61.1.4.2.2

-.0.1

od

Capitalequip-ment

SA

22.68.26.47.37.98.8

11.49.23.9

th

0.4.5

.2

.4

.3-.1

.2

.3

.2

.7-.3

.30

Change

Totalfinishedgoods

4.35.2

.7-2.4-4.7

— .4.1

3.03.33.92.53.61.3

from 3 month

Consume

Foods

-1.8.8

.24.24.19.53.10

r-6.9-3.3

1.5r9.23.1

s earlier, ann

r goods

Excludingfoods

8.17.8

-3.2-7.6

-11.2-5.5-2.3

4.88.37.03.21.51.0

ml rate

" Capitalequipment

1.13.6

2.72.72.02.41.71.7

r2.74.82.5

r3.00

Change

Totalfinishedgoods

6.24.7

1.5.9.1

-.6-1.3-.91.41.82.83.42.6

from 6 month

Consunw

Foods

-3.1-3.5

71.22.44.73.72.0r.9

-.2.8.8

-.2

s earlier, ann

;r goods

Excludingfoods

11.08.7

1.6— .1

-2.2—4.4-5.0-3.5

1.22.24.04.93.9

ial rate

*

Capitalequipment

3.93.5

2.41.92.82.62.21.8

r2.63.32.12.82.4

Changefromyear

earlier,total

finishedgoods

NSA

15.310.84.46.57.8

11.113.59.24.0

3.73.7

2.22.22.22.12.31.81.41.41.41.3.7

NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES[Percent change from preceding period; montbJy data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

197419751976197719781979198019811982

1982: NovDec..


Allitems l

12.27.04.86.89.0

13.312.48.93.9

0-.3

.2-.2

.1

.6

.5

.2

.4

.4

.5

.4

.3

Food

12.26.5

.68.0

11.810.210.24.33.1

0.0-.0

.10

.6

.4

.3-.3-.1

.2

.3

.5

.1

Total 1

13.47.55.47.69.9

15.213.710.23.6

-0.2-.8

.50

— .1.5.3.2.4.2.5.2.5

Total 1

11.47.34.28.7

11.517.415.19.92.4

-0.6-1.4

.7

.2

.0

.7

.3

.3

.5

.4

.5

.4

.4

Hoi

Sh

Rent-ers'

costs

0.6.3.2.4.5.3.6.&.7.4.4

ising

elter

Home-owners'

costs

NSA

Chang

0.7.2.0.8.3.2.5.3.5.4.4

Mainte-nanceand

NSA

re, Decem

16.25.57.17.2

10.110.310.69.24.2

Change,

-0.1-.4

1.5-1.0

.11.1

.2

.2

.3

.5— .41.3

.7

Fueland

otherutili-ties

ber to I

16.611.29.08.15.9

16.013.614.59.7

month t

1.2.7

-.2-.5-.5

.2

.8

.0

.3

.3

.7— .1

.8

Ap-parelandup-

keep

)ecembe

8.72.34.54.23.25.56.83.61.6

o month

-0.1-.3

.3

.5— .1

.2

.7

.4

.6

.400

.1

Tn

Total »

r.NSA

13.39.88.84.37.7

18.214.711.01.7

-0.1-j

-.6-1.6-.01.11.3.4.5

1.0.8.6.2

insportati

Newcars

11.57.34.87.26.27.47.56.81.6

-0.3.3

.1

.9

.7-.6-.3

.10

.81.0.7.0

on

Motorfuel2

20.611.02.64.98.5

52.218.99.4

-6.5

-0.3-.8

-3.3-6.7-1.0

3.94.1

.7

.41.2.5

— .5-.8

Medi-cal

care

12.49.9

10.18.88.8

10.110.012.511.0

0.9.8

.8

.8

.5

.5

.4

.5

.6

.5

.4

.4

.4

Ener-gy3

21.611.66.97.28.0

37.418.111.91.3

0.8.3

4-2.5-3.7-.92.02.5.3.3.7.7

— .40

Allitemsless

food,energy,

andshelter

11.36.47.05.26.57.29.99.46.1

0.2.5

.5

.4

.3

.2

.2

.4

.6

.5

.5

.6

.4

Addendurchan

From3

monthsearlier

2.1.5

-.4-1.2

.42.15.15.44.74.25.35.54.9

n: All items,ge (annual n

From6

monthsearlier

5.12.3

1.4.4.5.8

1.92.93.44.75.45.14.6

percentite)

Fromyear

earlier

NSA

11.09.15.86.57.7

11.313.510.46.1

4.63.9

3.83.53.63.93.52.62.42.62.92.93.2

1 Includes items not shown separately.2 Includes direct pricing of diesel and gasohol beginning September 1981.3 Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel, motor oil, coolant,

etc.4 Energy excludes motor oil, coolant, etc. beginning January 1983.

NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data beginning January 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban wage earn-ers and clerical workers.

Data beginning January 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs.


24


PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERSPrices received by farmers rose 0.7 percent in November and prices paid by farmers rose 0.6 percent in the monthended November 15.

INDEX, 1977=100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1977=100 (RATIO SCALE)

60 I II II I I I II II I I I II I I I I I I I I II I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I lI I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I l I I I I I M I i I 60

J/ RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID.

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

1983


[1977 = 100]

Period

19751976197719781979198019811982

1982: NovDec


Pri

All farmproducts

101102100115132134139133

128127

128132134136137134131139136134135

3es received by farm

Crops

105102100105116125134121

117114

114118121127129126125139134137136

ers

Livestock andproducts

98101100124147144143145

139139

142146146145144141137139137135135

F

All commodities,services,

interest, taxes,and wage rates *

8995

100108123138150156

156156

157158159159160160160160161161162

rices paid by farmer

Productionitems, interest,

taxes, and wagerates

8995

100109125139151154

154153

156157157158159159158159159158159

s

Productionitems

9197

100108125138148149

148148

150151152153154154152153154153154

Ratio 2

113107100106107979386

8281

8284848686848287848383

1 Includes items not shown separately.2 Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes,

and wage rates.

NOTE. — The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by law. The indexeshave been converted to a 1977 = 100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes.

Source: Department of Agriculture.

25


MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETSMONEY STOCK MEASURES AND LIQUID ASSETSGrowth in M3 accelerated in November, while growth in the narrower aggregates slowed a little.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

2,6002,4002,200

2,000

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

M3

1975 1976

I I I I I I I I I I1977 1978 1979

M2

1980

I I I I I1981

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS'(RATIO SCALE)

2,6002,4002,200

2,000

1,800

1,600

1,400

1982

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

2001983

•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE, SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]

Period

1975: Dec.....1976: Dec1977: Dec1978: Dec1979: Dec1980: Dec1981: Dec1982: Dec

1982: NovDec

1983: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSeptOctNov'1

Ml

Sum of currency,demand deposits,

travelers' checks, andother checkable deposits

(OCD) !

291.1310.4335.5363.2389.0414.1440.6478.2

474.0478.2

482.1491.1497.6496.5507.4511.7515.5516.7517.1517.9518.2

M2

Ml plus overnight RPsand Eurodollars,MMMF balances

(general purpose andbroker/dealer),

MMDAs, and savingsand small time deposits

1,023.01,163.51,286.41,388.51,497.51,630.31,794.91,959.5

1,945.01,959.5

2,010.02,050.82,069.92,074.82,096.22,114.42,126.32,136.9

r 2, 145.4r2,162.02,176.2

M3

M2 plus large timedeposits, term RPs, andinstitution-only MMMV

balances

1,161.71,296.31,451.81,613.51,758.41,936.72,167.92,377.6

2,370.22,377.6

2,403.3r 2,430.72,447.12,453.92,476.22,498.8

r2,510.32,528.3

r 2,543.9r 2,562.02,588.9

L

M3 plus other liquidassets

1,371.91,522.41,711.01,922.92,131.82,343.62,622.0

r 2,896.7r 2,882.5r 2,896.7

2,930.62,960.2

r 2,987.5r 3,005.8r3,031.3r 3,058.63,087.8

Percent cm

Ml

4.96.68.18.37.16.56.48.5

9.811.2

12.614.815.412.214.614.514.310.78.08.84.3

jhange fromonths earlier

M2

12.613.710.67.97.98.9

10.19.2

10.510.5

14.216.116.615.616.216.411.98.67.4

r8.67.8

year or 62

M3

9.411.612.011.19.0

10.111.99.7

11.910.7

10.810.09.98.99.1

10.59.18.2

r8.1r9.09.3

1 Net of demand deposits due to foreign commercial banks and official institutions.2 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months

earlier at an annual rate.

26

NOTE.—See page 27 for components.

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.


COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK MEASURES AND LIQUID ASSETS[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

Dec:19751976197719781979198019811982

1982:NovDec..

1983:JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSeptOctNov '.....

Cur-rency

73.980.688.697.5

106.3116.2123.2132.8

131.9132.8

134.2135.6137.0138.0139.3140.3140.9141.8143.0144.2145.3

De-manddepos-

its *

214.1224.4239.7253.8262.0266.8236.4239.8

237.6239.8

239.4238.7240.1238.9242.5244.0245.8244.5243.4242.9241.6

Othercheck-

abledepos-

its(OCD)

0.92.74.28.4

17.026.976.6

101.3

100.1101.3

104.5112.5116.0115.0120.9122.7124.2125.8126.0126.0126.5

Over-nightrepur-chaseagree-ments(RPs),

net, plusover-nightEuro-dollars

NSA

5.810.614.720.321.228.436.144.3

45.244.3

47.3r48.9r48.850.655.156.052.752.1

r53.0r56.755.7

Moneymutua

bala

Gener-al

pur-poseandbro-ker/

dealer

NSA

2.72.42.46.4

33.461.4

150.9182.2

191.1182J

166.7159.6154.0146.7141.1139.7

r 138.8r 139.1r 137.6

137.8138.7

market1 fundnces

Insti-tutiononly

NSA

0.4.6.9

3.19.5

14.936.047.6

49.947.6

46.145.243.541.040.439.238.638.439.139.940.6

Moneymarketdeposit

accounts(MMDAs)

NSA

43.2

43.2

189.1277.7320.5341.2356.8367.3368.4366.3366.9367.4369.1

Sav-ings

depos-its

388.8453.0491.6481.2423.1400.7344.4359.3

366.4359.3

335.1325.7322.7321.5323.1325.0323.5322.1320.6318.8316.4

Smalldenom-ination

timedepos-its2

338.1391.0446.0521.8635.9731.7828.6859.1

874.9859.1

797.4755.1733.8725.7720.1722.1735.1748.0757.7771.0785.7

Largedenom-ination

timedepos-its2

129.9118.2145.2194.9222.2258.9302.6333.8

340.4333.8

310.7297.9296.2300.2299.2304.1305.6311.6

r317.7r319.9325.4

Termrepur-chaseagree-ments(RPs)

NSA

8.414.219.527.130.134.837.240.3

39.440.3

40.640.841.742.745.344.542.844.8

r45.1r43.949.4

TermEuro-dollars

(net)

NSA

9.713.118.429.041.548.065.3

r80.0

r79.6r80.0

81.183.5

r85.9r88.4r89.9r89.889.6

Sovav-

bonds

67.271.776.480.279.572.367.767.9

67.867.9

68.168.568.869.269.669.870.0

Short-term

Treas-ury

securi-ties

76.880.889.799.3

128.7156.9176.3217.6

214.5217.6

219.3219.3224.5230.5231.4237.2252.1

Bank-ers'

accep-tances

8.48.8

11.821.626.731.640.644.9

43.144.9

45.343.242.041.240.840.241.4

r m~paper

48.051.762.979.297.098.1

104.2108.8

107.3108.8

113.5115.1119.2122.5123.4122.9124.4

1 Net of demand deposits due to foreign commercial banks and official institutions.2 Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than

$100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively.

NOTE.—See p. 26 for overall measures.

Travelers checks are a component of money stock but are not shown here.NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted.


CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT[Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

19751976.*1977197819791980198119821982: Oct

NovDec

1983: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSeptOct

Installr

Total 2

180,083210,740257,600297,668324,777306,076334,508344,90128,65031,69130,777

nent credit e>

Auto-mobile

52,42063,74375,64187,98193,90183,45493,24095,9978,041

10,1779,716

ctended

Revolving

36,95643,93487,596

105,125120,174128,068139,829150,06112,61412,77812,491

Installnr

Total 2

172,675189,179222,138254,589286,396304,628316,291331,805

28,78129,67628,359

lent credit liq

Auto-mobile

49,44453,27860,43769,24579,18682,97784,74591,0998,1118,6438,225

uidated

Revolving

35,61641,76481,34896,090

111,546126,653135,362145,69612,53312,73911,990

Net

Total 2

^,40821,56135,46243,07938,381

1,44818,21713,096-1312,0152,4182,725

7352,5822,2712,6964,4064,8403,3882,3754,885

change in amoutstanding l

Auto-mobile

2,97610,46515,20418,73614,715

4778,4954,898-70

1,5341,491

625-2331,221

6891,3131,9732,4212,521

2851,772

ount

Revolving

1,3402,1706,2489,0358,6281,4154,4674,365

8139

50168

-1351,177

917514

1,210821313479

1,145

Amount ousea

Total 2

169,387190,725226,646269,392307,115308,137326,274339,316335,593336,897339,316342,041342,776345,358347,629350,325354,731359,571362,959365,334370,219

tstanding, ensonally adjus

Auto-mobile

57,27967,79882,890

101,863116,523116,808125,323130,235127,694128,824130,235130,860130,627131,848132,537133,850135,823138,244140,765141,050142,822

i of period,ted

Revolving

14,46716,50536,42745,00453,17454,65058,72262,83062,30262,32662,83062,89862,76363,94064,85765,37166,58167,40267,71568,19469,339

1 Through 1982 calculated as the difference between credit extensions and credit liquidations. Be-ginning 1983, calculated as change in amount outstanding.

2 Includes "mobile home" and "other," not shown separately.

Note.—Extensions and liquidations not available after December 1982.


27


BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS, AND RESERVESCommercial and industrial loans rose again in November.

-ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS


1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

160

120

80

40 1 1 11975

Mi l l

1976

LOANS AND LEASES

INVESTMENT IN OTHER

INVESTMENT INU.S. TREASURY SECURITIES

UNI1977

I l l l l l l l l l l1978 1979

mil nn1980


1,200

1,000

800

600

400

SECURITIES

I I I H1981

I l l l l l l l i l l1982

I l l l

200

160

120

80

401983

'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, AVERAGES OF WEDNESDAY FIGURES

SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

1975: Dec1976: Dec1977: Dec1978: Dec1979: Dec1980: Dec1981: Dec1982: Dec

1982: NovDec.

1983: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSeptOct r

Nov"

Total loansand

investments

745.2804.6891.5

1,013.51,135.91,239.61,316.31,412.0

1,398.51,412.0

,428.2,436.3,450.1,460.6,474.4,488.0,499.9,513.2,520.3,532.9

1,548.6

Al

Loans a

Total 2

517.4555.0632.5747.0849.9915.1973.9

1,042.0

1,036.41,042.0

1,045.01,048.71,056.31,059.51,063.31,070.61,080.91,091.01,096.31,104.11,115.6

commercial ban

nd leases


loans

189.6190.9210.9245.9291.2326.8358.0392.3

392.0392.3

395.1394.9396.2392.9392.9395.0399.2402.5402.6404.7407.8

b1

Investi

U.S. Treasurysecurities

82.2100.899.893.894.5

110.0111.0130.9

126.4130.9

139.8144.5151.0157.8166.1171.2172.9174.4176.9182.3186.2

nents

Othersecurities

145.6148.8159.3172.8191.5214.4231.4239.2

235.8239.2

243.3243.1242.8243.4245.0246.2246.1247.8247.1246.5246.8

R

res

Total

26.3826.8028.0029.4430.7132.4633.7536.23

35.8336.23

35.6336.1036.8037.1537.1337.6137.8037.6937.7237.6237.41

Depos

eserves adjustfor changes iierve requirem

Non-borrowed

26.2526.7427.4328.5729.2430.7733.1135.60

35.2135.60

35.1035.5236.0136.1436.1835.9836.3536.1536.2836.7836.50

itory institutio

3dients

Required

26.1126.5227.8129.2130.3831.9433.4335.73

35.4335.73

35.0935.6636.3736.6836.6837,1337.2937.2537.2237.1236.88

ns3

Bom(millions

unad

Total

12762

558874

1,4731,617

636697

579697

500557852993902

1,7141,3821,5731,441

837913

) wingsof dollars,usted)

Seasonal

131254

13482

1165333

4733

3339538298

121172198191142119

1 Data are averages of Wednesday figures.2 Excludes loans to commercial banks in the United States.3 Data are averages of daily figures.

NOTE.—Beginning Dec. 1981, bank loans and investments and reserves aggregates have been•educed because of shifts from U.S. banking offices to International Banking Facilities (IBFs).


28


SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIALCORPORATE BUSINESS


Period

1973197419751976197719781979198019811982

1982: InmIV

1983: I r

n r

mp.

Total

192.4190.1156.9210.8254.1317.5345.7333.2365.8308.6

302.8329.9327.4274.5

323.4396.3387.7

Internal l

91.785.6

119.7134.2157.4175.7188.8189.5230.6240.5

233.5240.2244.0244.3

250.7270.3291.1

Total

100.7104.437.276.696.7

141.8156.9143.7135.268.1

69.389.783.430.2

72.7126.096.6

Sources

Ci

Total

56.769.930.754.572.480.588.290.992.284.1

102.889.989.054.6

69.277.180.1

External

edit market fu

Securitiesand

mortgages

20.726.338.738.235.832.820.952.422.545.2

24.838.639.677.8

64.784.033.4

nds

Loans andshort-term

paper

36.043.6

-8.016.336.647.767.338.569.738.9

78.051.349.4

-23.2

4.5-6.946.7

Other 2

44.034.56.5

22.124.361.368.852.843.0

-16.0

-33.4-.25.6

-24.4

3.548.816.4

Total

191.9190.1150.9201.8237.6293.6346.7320.1324.3250.9

232.1279.3270.4222.0

276.2338.7338.4

Uses

Capitalexpendi-tures 3

121.5137.9109.7148.3175.1201.6219.4221.2261.6231.2

242.4242.2240.1200.2

202.4252.9281.5

Increase infinancialassets

70.552.241.253.562.592.0

127.398.962.719.7

-10.337.130.321.8

73.885.856.9

Discrepancy(sources less

uses)

0.5.0

6.09.0

16.523.8

-1.013.141.657.7

70.850.556.952.5

47.257.649.3

1 Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital 3 Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S.consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits, dividends, and subsidiaries' earnings retained Government.abr°?f . . .. .... . . , , ... , . . • , TT 0 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.2 Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment in the U.S.

CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIALCORPORATIONS

[Billions of dollars, except as noted]

End of period

SIC series: 2

19701971197219731974

FTC-FRB series: 3

197419751976197719781979198019811982

1982: IIIIllIV

1983: III"

Total

492.3529.6599.3697.8790.7

735.4759.0827.4912.7

1,043.71,214.81,327.01,419.31,425.4

1,418.01,417.21,441.81,425.4

1,436.51,464.2

Cash

50.253.359.066.371.1

73.282.188.297.2

105.5118.0126.9131.8144.0

121.8124.1126.9144.0

139.7145.7

Current

U.S.Govern-

mentsecurities

7.711.010.612.812.3

11.119.023.518.217.216.718.717.422.4

16.516.518.922.4

25.827.5

assets

Notes andaccounts

receivable

206.1221.1248.2288.5322.1

265.8272.1292.9330.3388.0459.0506.8530.3511.0

533.4531.2534.2511.0

517.9534.3

Inven-tories

193.3200.4225.7263.9313.6

319.5315.9342.5376.9431.8505.1542.8585.1575.2

591.6587.6596.5575.2

573.2570.5

Othercurrentassets

35.043.855.866.471.7

65.969.980.390.1

101.1116.0131.8154.6172.6

154.7157.9165.3172.6

179.9186.2

C

Total

304.9326.0375.6450.9530.4

453.4451.6495.1557.1669.5807.3889.3976.3977.8

987.0988.7

1,007.6977.8

986.3997.7

urrent liabilitie

Notes andaccountspayable

211.3220.5282.9340.3402.3

269.8264.2282.1317.6383.0460.8513.6558.8552.8

552.9554.9562.7552.8

543.2551.6

s

Othercurrent

liabilities

93.6105.592.7

110.7128.1

183.6187.4213.0239.6286.5346.5375.7417.5425.0

434.0433.8444.9425.0

443.1446.1

Networkingcapital

187.4203.6223.7246.9260.3

282.0307.4332.4355.5374.3407.5437.8442.9447.6

431.0428.5434.2447.6

450.2466.5

Currentratio *

1.6151.6251.5951.5481.491

1.6221.6811.6711.6381.5591.5051.4921.4541.458

1.4371.4331.4311.458

1.4561.468

1 Total current assets divided by total current liabilities.2 Based on data from Statistics of Income, Department of the Treasury.3 Based on data from Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing, Mining, and Trade Corpo-

rations, Federal Trade Commission and Department of Commerce.

NOTE.—SEC series not available after 1974.See Federal Reserve Bulletin, July 1978, for details regarding the series.

Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce, FederalTrade Commission, and Securities and Exchange Commission.

29Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDSInterest rates rose in December.

PERCENT PER ANNUM16

1982 1983


[Percent per annum]

Period

197719781979198019811982

1982: Dec1983: Jan

FebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSeptOctNovDee '

Week ended:1983: Dee 3

10172431

U.S. T

3-month bills l

5.2657.221

10.04111.50614.07710.686

8.0137.8108.1308.3048.2528.198.829.129.399.058.718.718.96

8.909.008.939.048.94

reasury security

Constant n

3-year

6.698.299.72

11.5514.4412.92

9.889.649.919.849.769.66

10.3210.9011.3011.0710.8710.9611.13

10.9811.1011.2111.13

yields

laturities 2

10-year

7.428.419.44

11.4613.9113.00

10.5410.4610.7210.5110.4010.3810.8511.3811.8511.6511.5411.6911.83

11.6411.8211.9311.82

High-grademunicipal

bonds(Standard &

Poor's) 3

5.565.906.398.51

11.2311.57

9.919.459.489.168.969.039.519.469.729.579.649.799.90

9.859.85

10.019.929.80

CorporateAaa bonds(Moody's)

8.028.739.63

11.9414.1713.79

11.8311.7912.0111.7311.5111.4611.7412.1512.5112.3712.25

r 12.4112.57

12.3912.5112.6612.61

Primecommercial

paper,6 months 4

4 5.614 7.9910.9112.2914.7611.89

8.508.158.398.488.488.319.039.369.689.288.989.099.50

9.119.359.689.64

Discount rate(N.Y. F.E.

Bank)5

5.467.46

10.2811.7713.4111.02

High-low

9.00-8.508.50-8.508.50-8.508.50-8.508.50-8.508.50-8.508.50-8.508.50-8.508.50-8.508.50-8.508.50-8.508.50-8.508.50-8.50

8.50-8.508.50-8.508.50-8.508.50-8.50

Prime ratecharged by

banks5

6.839.06

12.6715.2718.8714.86

High-low

11.50-11.5011.50-11.0011.00-10.5010.50-10.5010.50-10.5010.50-10.5010.50-10.5010.50-10.5011.00-10.5011.00-11.0011.00-11.0011.00-11.0011.00-11.00

11.00-11.0011.00-11.0011.00-11.0011.00-11.00

New-homemortgage

yields(FHLBB)6

9.029.56

10.7812.6614.7015.14

13.6913.4913.1613.4112.4212.6712.3612.5012.3812.5412.2512.27

1 Rate on new issues within period; bank-discount basis.2 Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury De-

partment.3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures.4 Bank-discount basis. Prior to November 1, 1979, data are for 4-6 months paper.5 Average effective rate for year; high and low rate for month and week.

30

6 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges aswell as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Rates beginningJanuary 1973 not strictly comparable with prior rates.

Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Feder-al Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation.


COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDSMost stock price indexes fell in December.

INDEX, DEC. 31 1965=50100

INDEX, DEC. 31,1965=50100

60 -

50 -

40 /^

PERCENT

20

- 50

40

1983

10

PERCENT20

EARNINGS- PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS(S&P)

1975 I 1976 1982 I 1983

SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD 8. POOR'S CORPORATION COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Period

1977197819791980198119821982: Dec1983: Jan

FebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSeptOctNovDecp

Week ended:1983: Dee 3

101724

Ne^

Composite

53.6953.7058.3268.1074.0268.9380.3083.2584.7487.5090.6194.6196.4396.7493.9696.7096.7895.3694.91

96.2395.6294.5494.06

v York Stock Ex(

Industrial

57.8658.2364.7678.7085.4478.1892.0095.3797.26

100.61104.46109.43112.52113.21109.50112.76112.87110.77110.62

111.83111.33110.09109.67

Coi

;hange indexes (E

Transporta-tion

41.0943.5047.3460.6172.6160.4173.4075.6579.4483.2885.2689.0792.2292.9188.0694.5695.4197.6898.83

100.03100.2099.1097.73

Timon stock price

ec. 31, 1965—5

Utility

40.9239.2238.2037.3538.9139.7542.9345.5945.9245.8946.2247.6246.7646.6146.9448.1648.7348.5047.04

48.4147.5647.1546.56

s 1

O) 2

Finance

55.2556.6561.4264.2573.5271.9986.2285.6686.5793.2299.07

102.45101.2299.6095.7697.0094.7994.4894.25

96.2595.1993.6093.37

Dow-Jonesindustrialaverage 3

894.63820.23844.40891.41932.92884.36

1,033.081,064.291,087.431,129.581,168.431,212.861,221.471,213.931,189.211,237.041,252.201,250.011,257.59

1,274.681,267.111,248.621,249.15

Standard &Poor's

compositeindex (1941-

43 = 10)4

98.2096.02

103.01118.78128.05119.71139.37144.27146.80151.88157.71164.10166.39166.96162.42167.16167.65165.23164.33

166.56165.49163.59162.87

Common st(perce

Dividend-price ratio

4.625.285.475.265.205.814.934.794.744.594.444.274.264.214.354.244.254.314.32

4.274.294.354.35

ock yieldsnt)5

Earnings-price ratio

10.7912.0313.4612.6611.9611.608.99

8.12

r7.49

1 Average of daily closing prices.2 Includes all the* stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the NYSE.3 Includes 30 stocks.4 Includes 500 stocks.5 Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings-

price ratios based on prices at end of quarter.NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Cor-

poration.

31


FEDERAL FINANCEFEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBTIn the first two months of fiscal year 1984, there was a budget deficit of $46.7 billion, compared to a budgetdeficit of $50.3 billion a year earlier.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

900

800

700

600

500

300

BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

900

BUDGET OUTLAYS

-100

-200

BUDGET SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (-)

800

700

600

500

400

300

-100

-200

1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980

FISCAL YEARS

1981 1982 1983 1984

SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIt OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]

Period

Fiscal year or period:19721973197419751976Transition quarter1977197819791980198119821983"1984 (estimates):

First Concurrent Resolution, June 23, 1983 1....Mid-Session Review, July 1983 2

Cumulative total first 2 months:Fiscal year 1983Fiscal year 1984

Budgetreceipts

207.3230.8263.2279.1298.1

81.2355.6399.6463.3517.1599.3617.8600.6

679.6668.4

'82.591.4

Budgetoutlays

230.7245.6267.9324.2364.5

94.2400.5448.4491.0576.7657.2728.4795.9

849.5848.1

132.9138.0

Budgetsurplus ordeficit (— )

23.4-14.8

4.7-45.2

66.4-13.0

44.9-48.8

27.7-59.6

57.9-110.6

195.4

169.9-179.7

50.3-46.7

Off-budgetsurplus ordeficit (-)

0.1— 1.4

8.1-7.3

1.8-8.710.4

-12.514.2

-21.017.3

-12.4

14.0

-1.0.8

Totalsurplus ordeficit (-)

-23.414.9

-6.153.2

-73.714.7

-53.659.2

-40.2-73.8-78.9127.9

-207.7

193.7

-51.345.9

Federal debt (

Gross

437.3468.4486.2544.1631.9646.4709.1780.4833.8914.3

1,003.91,147.01,381.9

1,614.61,611.9

1,166.61,393.8

end of period)

Held by thepublic

323.8343.0346.1396.9480.3498.3551.8610.9644.6715.1794.4929.4

1,141.8

1,339.4

961.51,162.4

1 First Concurrent Resolution, .June 23, 1983; figures exclude reserve fund items.2 Estimates from Mid-Session Review of the 1984 Budget, Office of Management and Budge

July 25, 1983.

Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget, except as noted.

32


FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE ANDOUTLAYS BY FUNCTIONIn the first two months of fiscal year 1984, budget receipts were $8.9 billion higher than a year earlier andbudget outlays were $5.1 billion higher.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

100 100

600

500

400

300

200

100

BUDGET OUTLAYS600

500

400

300

200

100

NONDEFENSE ^<*«**

\~'+~

1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980

FISCAL YEARS

1981 1982 1983 1984

SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]

Period

Fiscal year or period:19721973197419751976Transition quarter1977197819791980198119821983 p

1984 (estimates) l

Cumulative total first 2 months:Fiscal year 1983Fiscal year 1984

Total

207.3230.8263.2279.1298.181.2

355.6399.6463.3517.1599.3617.8600.6668.4

82.591.4

Budget n

Individualincometaxes

94.7103.2119.0122.4131.638.8

157.6181.0217.8244.1285.9297.7288.9296.0

43.345.9

jeeipts

Corpo-rationincometaxes

32.236.238.640.641.48.5

54.960.065.764.661.149.237.064.1

-1.1.9

Other

80.491.4

105.7116.1125.034.0

143.0158.6179.8208.4252.2270.8274.6308.3

40.444.5

Total

230.7245.6267.9324.2364.594.2

400.5448.4491.0576.7657.2728.4795.9848.1

132.9138.0

Nation

Total

76.674.577.885.689.422.397.5

105.2117.7135.9159.8187.4210.5242.3

33.235.4

al defense

Depart-ment ofDefense,military

75.173.277.684.987.921.995.6

103.0115.0132.8156.1182.9205.0235.7

32.434.4

Budget outlays

Interna-tionalaffairs

4.74.15.76.95.62.24.85.96.1

10.711.110.08.9

13.5

1.11.4

Health andincomesecurity

80.090.4

104.8134.3158.941.0

174.5187.4207.1248.3291.1322.4361.4365.7

58.258.7

Netinterest

15.517.321.423.226.76.9

29.935.442.652.568.784.787.0

103.5

16.017.0

Other

53.959.358.274.283.921.893.8

114.4117.5129.3126.5123.9128.2123.1

24.425.5

1 Estimates from Mid-Session Review of the 1984 Budget, Office of Management and Budget,July 25, 1983.

Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.

33


FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASISIn the third quarter, according to revised estimates, Federal receipts fell $7.4 billion (annual rate) and expendituresrose $13.8 billion, yielding a deficit of $187.3 billion.


600

400

300

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES


EXPENDITURES

\ 1 1 1 I 1

RECEIPTS

1 1 i 1 1 1 I 1 1 \ \ 1 1 1NT

800

600

500

SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (-

1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983-200

SOURCE.- DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS


Period

Fiscal year:19781979198019811982

Calendar year:19781979198019811982

1981: IIIIV

1982: IIIIllIV

1983: IIIIll r

Total

414.3480.8525.9610.3627.8

431.6493.6540.9627.0617.4

638.8629.2

619.5622.2615.2612.6

623.3652.6645.2

Federal

Personaltax andnontaxreceipts

186.5222.6250.4289.3310.4

194.9230.6257.7298.6304.7

308.6303.8

306.5308.5300.6303.0

297.7304.2286.9

Goveramei

Corpo-rate

profitstax

accruals

67.376.169.970.551.3

71.374.270.367.546.5

68.261.4

47.648.447.842.1

48.659.866.6

it receipts

Indirectbusinesstax andnontax

accruals

27.229.135.553.650.3

28.129.439.056.448.3

55.855.0

49.547.747.948.3

48.656.055.5

Contribu-tions for

socialinsurance

133.3153.1170.0196.9215.7

137.2159.5173.9204.5217.9

206.2209.1

215.8217.6218.9219.3

228.5232.6236.2

Total

450.4495.6576.5668.1740.0

461.0509.7602.1689.2764.4

701.2725.0

728.0735.4773.5820.9

806.6818.7832.5

Pur-chases

of goodsand

services

150.4164.1189.3218.5251.0

153.6168.3197.0229.2258.7

232.4248.5

249.7244.1261.7279.2

273.5273.7278.1

Federal (

Transferpay-

ments

182.2201.8239.4279.3310.2

185.6209.2251.5286.6321.1

295.3300.1

302.5311.2325.9344.8

340.3347.0343.5

jovernment

Grants-in-aid to

Stateandlocal

govern-ments

74.779.186.790.183.4

77.380.588.787.983.9

86.484.2

82.585.183.085.0

85.886.787.2

expenditur

Netinterest

paid

33.540.650.767.782.2

35.242.453.473.284.9

75.279.0

79.782.388.689.1

88.491.8

101.0

es

Subsidiesless

currentsurplus ofGovern-

mententer-prises

9.79.9

10.412.513.2

9.59.2

11.512.415.8

12.313.2

13.412.714.222.8

18.618.222.3

Less:Wage

accrualsless

disburse-ments

0.0-.0

.0

.1-.0

.0-.0

.0

.1-.0

.3

.0

-.1.0.0.0

.0-1.3

^

Surplusor deficit

(— ),nationalincome

andproductaccounts

-36.1-14.8

50.7-57.8112.2

-29.5-16.1-61.2-62.2

-147.1

62.4-95.8

- 108.5-113.2-158.3-208.2

-183.3-166.1-187.3

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), Department of the Treasury,and Office of Management and Budget.

34


INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSINDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES— MAJOR

INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES *[1967 = 100]

Period

19751976197719781979198019811982 p

1982: Dec1983: Jan

FebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSeptOctNov*

UnitedStates

117.8130.5138.2146.1152.5147.0151.0138.6135.2137.4138.1140.0142.6144.4146.4149.7

r!51.8r 153.9r 155.1156.3

Indu

Canada

140.3149.0152.7157.8167.6165.1166.6148.8141.8149.3149.2149.9151.6153.3156.7

r 158.6r 160.4

163.3

strial prod

Japan

163.9182.0189.7201.1215.3225.2227.5228.4226.6227.3225.9231.5230.6231.1233.3234.0241.2241.9

action (sea

France

139149152154161160157154155156156155156

r!60157160160157

isonally adju

Germany

137.1149.1152.0154.1161.8162.3159.9156.2151154154157155157160157157158

sted)

Italy

127.6143.5145.1147.9157.6166.5162.7159.1150.0150.0148.9148.2141.5148.5145.1146.9134.9150.4148.4

UnitedKingdom

114.3117.4

r 124.2r 127.8r 132.8r 124.1r 119.2r!21.7r 123.0r 123.6r 124.2r 122.8r 123.0r 123.9r!21.8r 125.4

125.2125.3

UnitedStates l

161.2170.5181.5195.4217.4246.8272.4289.1292.4293.1293.2293.4295.5297.1298.1299.3300.3301.8302.6303.1

Canada

160.1172.1185.9202.5221.0243.5273.9303.4313.4312.5313.9317.1317.1317.9321.5322.9324.5324.5326.5

Consume

Japan

205.8224.9243.0252.3261.3282.2296.2304.1306.0306.6305.5307.5308.6312.0309.7308.3307.4311.4

r prices (i

France

178.9196.1214.5233.9259.1294.2332.7373.1386.4390.1392.9396.5401.8404.5406.9410.4412.8416.0419.2

unadjusted)

Germany

144.2150.4155.9160.2166.8175.9186.3196.2199.4199.8200.0199.8200.3201.1201.8202.6203.2203.6203.6

Italy

186.8218.1255.2286.2328.5398.0472.4549.4594.4602.7610.5616.0622.2628.2632.2638.5641.1649.4660.4

UnitedKingdom

216.5252.4292.4316.6359.0423.6473.9514.7522.9523.5525.8526.7534.1536.4537.7540.6543.0545.4547.3549.2

1 Beginning January 1978 data relate to all urban consumers.

Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce, International Trade Adminis-

tration, Office of Trade Investment and Analysis, Trade Performance Division, in InternationalEconomic Indicators.

U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS[Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

Monthly average:1975*1976*1977*1978*1979*1980.

198119821982: Get

NovDee


Totaldomestic

andforeignexports

8,9719,602

10,10311,97315,15518,386

19,47317,68316,67115,85216,347

17,39316,32616,75216,07415,56617,00816,62916,63017,38716,95116,848

Men

Total 2

8,8479,4629,919

11,76214,88618,043

19,07517,25616,28415,47615,913

17,00715,98416,33515,72215,18616,65216,30016,24317,02216,49916,449

handise expo

Domestic

Food,bever-

ages, andtobacco

1,3991,4361,3301,7172,0492,534

2,7672,2482,1282,0511,966

2,3122,2242,3072,0792,0102,1942,1142,0862,3372,4182,504

rts1

exports

Crudemateri-als and

fuels

]

1,2661,3411,5481,7462,3522,810

2,7522,7932,6882,4402,420

2,7602,4432,3752,5492,2792,3772,3822,7812,7562,2892,234

Manu-facturedgoods

<\a.s. valu

5,9136,4376,6797,8739,716

11,991

12,85711,64310,94210,48410,648

11,26310,74311,06210,54510,33111,56011,12510,85511,18911,24911,198

Total 2

e

8,20910,29012,53314,56317,45520,406

21,74820,32921,00618,89219,154

20,02119,01519,52519,77121,51421,02421,95022,78222,17524,763

Merc

Ger

Food,bever-

ages, andtobacco

827991

1,1861,3121,4781,546

Customs

1,5291,4851,6861,4991,414

1,5821,5301,4791,612

,652,456,560,551,587

1,722

handise imp

icral import

Crudemateri-als and

fuels

2,7163,4574,4634,3255,9497,831

value

7,7396,2006,7275,7856,158

5,9114,4134,6554,5115,8455,5626,0146,5776,4456,889

orts

s 3

Manu-facturedgoods

4,2575,3986,3798,3609,352

10,427

11,87312,00211,90310,97810,988

11,98112,56112,67212,85613,35113,24913,84213,91313,37715,528

Total

value)

8,82311,04213,36815,50418,51921,415

22,77921,24021,93219,73720,002

20,96219,90620,38120,67522,47321,96422,98823,81723,19425,91724,248

Merch

Exports( f a s )less

imports(customs

value)

-2,275-2,647-4,335-3,041-2,808

-2,628-2,689-2,774-3,697-5,948-4,016-5,321-6,152-4,788-7,812

andise trade

Exports(f.a.s.)less

imports(f.a.s.)

762-688

-2,430-2,590-2,300-2,020

balance

Exports(f.a.s.)less

imports

148-1,440-3,265-3,530-3,364-3,030

-3,306-3,558-5,261-3,885-3,655

-3,569-3,580-3,630-4,601-6,907-4,956-6,359-7,187-5,807-8,966-7,401

1 Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Mili-tary Assistance Program are excluded from totals for all periods and from monthly detail beginningJanuary 1978.

2 Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind.3 Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments.NOTE.—Imports on c.i.f. basis beginning 1982 not strictly comparable with earlier periods.

Data beginning 1980 include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands, except that for 1980 Virgin Is-lands exports are reflected in the figures for domestic and foreign exports combined and trade bal-ance.

"Data for 1975-79 for domestic and foreign exports combined, total general imports, and tradebalance include trade of the Virgin Islands.


35


U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONSIn the third quarter, the current account deficit was a record $12.0 billion, up from $9.7 billion in the secondquarter. The increase was more than accounted for by the rise in the merchandise trade deficit to $18.2 billion,also a record, from $14.7 billion in the second quarter.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

1983*

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits (+), debits (—)]

Period

197419751976197719781979198019811982

1981: fflIV

1982: InmIV

1983: In r

ra '.

Exports

98,306107,088114,745120,816142,054184,473224,237237,019211,217

57,81258,383

55,63654,99652,24148,344

49,50648,913

r 50,585

Merchandise 1

Imports

-103,811-98,185

-124,228-151,907-176,020-212,028-249,781-265,086-247,606

-66,214-66,224

-61,739-60,850

65,319-59,698

-58,316-63,574

r- 68,754

2

Netbalance

-5,5058,903

-9,483-31,091-33,966-27,555-25,544-28,067-36,389

-8,4027,841

-6,103-5,85413,078

-11,354

-8,810- 14,661

r- 18,169

In

Receipts

27,58725,35129,28632,17942,24564,13272,44586,24384,146

22,04321,801

20,76122,31621,56919,499

17,69719,02720,622

vestment incon

Payments

-12,084-12,564-13,311

14,217-21,680-32,914-42,875

52,760-56,842

-13,888-12,892

-13,824-14,779-14,748-13,491

-12,608-13,326-13,694

ae3

Net

15,50312,78715,97517,96220,56531,21829,57033,48327,304

8,1558,909

6,9377,5376,8216,008

5,0895,7016,928

Netmilitarytransac-

tions

-1,653-746

5591,528

621-1,778-2,286-1,355

179

179-515

-5120154

-26

516117

-21

Nettravel andtranspor-

tationreceipts

-3,184-2,792-2,558-3,565-3,573-2,935-1,434

-598-2,095

-184-30

-208-561-557-769

-935-1,222

-745

Otherservices,

net3

3,9864,5984,7115,2726,0135,7357,1728,0607,822

2,0531,988

2,0501,9141,9061,951

2,1142,2342,092

Balanceon goods

andservices *

9,14722,7499,205

-9,894-10,340

4,6867,477

11,523-3,177

1,8012,571

2,6253,236

-4,854-4,190

-2,026-7,832-9,915

Remit-tances,

pensions,and otherunilateral

trans-fers 1

-7,186-4,613-4,998-4,617-5,106-5,649-7,056-6,931-8,034

-1,884-1,986

-2,061-1,802-1,742-2,431

-1,561-1,823-2,061

Balanceon

currentaccount

1,96218,1364,207

-14,511-15,446

-964421

4,592-11,211

-83585

5641,434

-6,596-6,621

-3,587-9,655

-11,976

1 Excludes military grants.2 Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage.3 Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the

United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net.


36


U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—ContinuedIn the capital accounts, claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $0.5 billion in the third quartercompared to a decrease of $5.2 billion in the second quarter. Liabilities to foreigners and international financialinstitutions reported by U.S. banks increased $17.4 billion compared to a $4.0 billion increase in the secondquarter.


40

20

-20

-40

-60

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED


CHANGE INFOREIGN ASSETSIN THE U.S., NET

/, \

40

-20

-40

-601975

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

197419751976197719781979198019811982

1981: IIIIV

1982: IIIIllIV

1983: III r

IIP....

[

Total

34,745-39,703

51,269-34,785

61,130-64,331-86,052

-110,601-118,045

-17,279-47,817

-31,456-40,934-26,099-19,553

-21,699-658

-6,429

U.S. assetsincrease /capita

U.S.officialreserve

assets 1 2

-1,467-849

-2,558-375

732-1,133-8,155-5,175-4,965

__4262

-1,089-1,132

-794-1,950

-78716

529

abroad, netd outflow ( — )

Other U.S.Govern-

mentassets

3663,474

-4,2143,693

-4,6603,746

-5,1405,078

-5,732

-1,274973

807-1,489

2,502-934

-1,053-1,162-1,188

U.S.privateassets

-33,64335,380

-44,49830,717

-57,20259,453

-72,757100,348

-107,348

- 16,00147,106

29,560-38,313

22,803-16,670

-19,859488

-5,770

Foreign[increase

Total

34,24115,67036,51851,31964,03638,75254,92280,67887,866

16,73141,551

27,12431,61217,61311,517

16,45210,95618,487

assets in the I/capital inflovs

Foreignofficialassets

10,5467,027

17,69336,81633,67813,66515,5665,4303,172

-5,8808,792

-3,0611,9302,6421,661

491,973

-3,235

I.S., netr ( + )] 2

Otherforeignassets

23,6968,643

18,82614,50330,35852,41639,35675,24884,694

22,61132,760

30,18529,68214,9729,855

16,4038,983

21,722

Allocationsof specialdrawingrights

(SDKs)

1,1391,1521,093

Statistical d

Total (sumof the items

with signreversed)

-1,4585,897

10,544-2,02312,54025,40429,55624,23841,390

6325,680

3,7687,887

15,08214,657

8,833-644-82

iscrepancy

Of which:Seasonal

adjustmentdiscrepancy

-1,1451,350

-729881

-1,1901,042

-212792

-1,355

U S official

assets, net l(unadjusted,

end ofperiod)

15,88316,22618,74719,31218,65018,95626,75630,07433,958

29,71530,074

29,94430,67130,99333,958

34,26133,87633,066

1 Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDKs), convertible currencies, and the U.S. reserveposition in the IMF.

2 Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted.

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of theTreasury.

37


ContentsTOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING Page

Gross National Product 1Gross National Product in 1972 Dollars 2Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product 2Changes in GNP and GNP Price Measures 3Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits 3National Income 4Personal Consumption Expenditures 4Sources of Personal Income 5Disposition of Personal Income '. 6Farm Income 7Corporate Profits 8Gross Private Domestic Investment 9Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment—Nonfarm Business..... 10

EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGESStatus of the Labor Force 11Selected Unemployment Rates 12Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs 13Nonagricultural Employment 14Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries 15Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries 15Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector 16

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITYIndustrial Production and Capacity Utilization 17Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures 18New Construction 19New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates 19Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade 20Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 21

PRICESProducer Prices 22Consumer Prices 23Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods 24Changes in Consumer Prices 24Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 25

MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETSMoney Stock Measures and Liquid Assets 26Components of Money Stock Measures and Liquid Assets « 27Consumer Installment Credit 27Bank Loans and Investments, and Reserves 28Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business 29Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations 29Interest Rates and Bond Yields 30Common Stock Prices and Yields 31

FEDERAL FINANCEFederal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt 32Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function 33Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 34

INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSIndustrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries 35U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports 35U.S. International Transactions 36

General Notes

Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding.Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars.Symbols used:

p Preliminary.r Revised.c Corrected.... Not available (also, not applicable).

For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office,Washington, D.C. 20402. Price $4.25 (single copy) ($5.35 foreign).

Subscription price: $25.00 per year; $31.25 for foreign mailing.

38 O U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1983 0—28-861


Economic Indicators: December 1983 - St. Louis FedCharts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of...

Documents

Transcript of Economic Indicators: December 1983 - St. Louis FedCharts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of...