Economic Indicators and Monthly Overview August 2015

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Economic Indicators

Last update 14.8.2015

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Economic Outlook Monthly Overview – August 2015

Europe:

• Consensus August GDP forecast for WE remained stable on 1,7% for 2015 and on 1,9% for 2016.

• The EU industrial confidence improved very slightly in July after the dip in June while

consumer confidence deteriorated again significantly.

• The IFO Business Climate index for Germany rose slightly in July. The recent easing of the

Greece situation contributed to the stronger sentiment in the German economy.

• Industrial production outlook has faltered on the back of weak data. On the other hand

German industrial orders in Q2 posted their highest increase since 2011. Uncertainty

over Chinese demand adds a note of caution over the export oriented outlook.

US:

• Consensus August GDP forecast for the US improved slightly from 2,2% to 2,3% for 2015 and

came down from 2,8% to 2,7% for 2016.

• Six years of data saw NAICS revisions which showed that activity over the past six years

averaged at 2% and not 2,3% as initially thought. Falling oil prices, a strong US dollar and

rising uncertainty continue to boost imports which swelled the trade deficit by 7% in June.

After a weak first part of the year, industry is starting to pick up pace again. The FED

continues to hold back from hiking interest rates.

Japan:

• The August GDP growth forecast for Japan came down from 1,0% to 0,8% for 2015, and

remained on 1,7% for 2016.

• Weak indicators raise fear of possible Q2 contraction.

3 | Economic Indicators |

Eurostat Data


Economic Indicators – GDP EU 28

Source: Eurostat Jun 15

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

09

Q1

10

Q1

11

Q1

12

Q1

13

Q1

14

Q1

15

Q1

%

GDP for the EU 28 countries at constant prices quarter vs. same quarter of last year


Economic Indicators – GDP EU 28

Source: Eurostat Jun 15

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

09

Q1

10

Q1

11

Q1

12

Q1

13

Q1

14

Q1

15

Q1

%

GDP for the EU 28 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter


Economic Indicators –EU 28 Consumer Price Index

Source: Eurostat Aug 15

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

09

/1

10

/1

11

/1

12

/1

13

/1

14

/1

15

/1

16

/1

%

The harmonized index of consumer prices is the result of the collaboration

between Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes of the Member States.


Economic Indicators – ECB interest rate

Source: ECB, FED, Eurostat Aug 15

Jul.15; 0,2

Aug.15; 0,05

Aug.15; 0,25

-1,0

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

Jan

09

Ju

l.09

Jan

10

Ju

l.10

Jan

11

Ju

ly 1

1

Jan

12

Ju

l.12

Jan

13

Ju

l.13

Jan

14

Ju

l.14

Jan

15

Ju

l.15

Jan

16

%

ECB short-term rate

Eurozone inflation

FED rate


Economic Indicators –EU 28 Unemployment Rate


9.6

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Ja

n 1

5

Jan

16

%

Unemployment rate for EU 28 countries


Economic Indicators – Industrial Confidence Ind EU


-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Jan

15

Jan

16

Industrial confidence within EU 28 improved slightly in July after the dip in June.

The Industrial Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the

questions on production expectations, order books and stocks.


Economic Indicators – Consumer Confidence Ind EU


Consumer Confidence within EU 28 deteriorated considerably in July.

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

Ja

n 0

9

Ja

n 1

0

Ja

n 1

1

Ja

n 1

2

Ja

n 1

3

Ja

n 1

4

Ja

n 1

5

Ja

n 1

6

The Consumer Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions

on the financial situation of households and general economic situation (past and future)

together with that on the advisability of making major purchases.


Economic Indicators – Capacity Utilization

in Manufacturing Industry in % - EU 27


60

65

70

75

80

85

04

Q1

05

Q1

06

Q1

07

Q1

08

Q1

09

Q1

10

Q1

11

Q1

12

Q1

13

Q1

14

Q1

15

Q1

81.3

%

The capacity utilization in manufacturing industry gives the level of capacity utilization

in percent, as assessed by managers in manufacturing industry.


Ifo Data


Economic Indicators – IFO World Economic Climate

Source: IFO Aug 15

The Ifo Index for the world economy cooled down in the third quarter 2015.

This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.


Economic Indicators – IFO European Economic Climate

Source: IFO Aug 15

The economic climate in Europe tended slightly downwards in Q3 2015

This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.


Economic Indicators – IFO NA Economic Climate

Source: IFO Aug 15 This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.


Economic Indicators – IFO Asia Economic Climate

Source: IFO Aug 15 This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.


Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Euro Area

Source: IFO Aug 15


Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Germany

Source: IFO Aug 15


Economic Indicators – Exchange rate $ vs €

Source: IFO Apr 15


Economic Indicators –

Ifo business situation and 6 month expectations

Source: IFO Aug 15

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Jan

15

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Jan

15

Business situation 6 months expectations

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business situation index shows the current evaluation of the

economic situation, while the 6 month expectations index shows the expectations of the companies for the next

6 months. Over 7000 companies are being interviewed.

The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany rose slightly in July. Companies were once again

more satisfied with their current business situation, and were also somewhat more optimistic

about the months ahead. The recent easing of the Greece situation contributed to a stronger

sentiment in the German economy.


Economic Indicators – IFO Assessment of Current

Business Situation

Source: IFO Aug 15

The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany rose slightly in July. Companies were once again

more satisfied with their current business situation, and were also somewhat more optimistic

about the months ahead. The recent easing of the Greece situation contributed to a stronger

sentiment in the German economy.


Zenith Data


Global Advertising Growth

Source: ZenithOptimedia 06/15


Regional Advertising Development



Global Advertising Markets



Advertising by medium


Economic Indicators and Monthly Overview August 2015

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