Economic indicators - Economic Monthly Overvies November 2012

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Economic Indicators

Last update 12.12.2012

| Economic Indicators |2

Economic Outlook Monthly Overview – November 2012

Europe:• Consensus November GDP forecast for WE improved from -0,3% to -0,2% for 2012 and

decreased from 0,4% to 0,3% for 2013.• Both, the EU industrial confidence and the consumer confidence indicator improved in October.• The IFO Business Climate index for Germany rose again after six successive decreases. Both,

the current business situation and the future business development were accessed somewhat less pessimistic. The German economy is holding up in the face of the euro crisis.

• Euro zone recovery prospects remain distant as unemployment edges higher and the outlook for 2013 deteriorates. The resilience previously displayed by Germany has eroded.

US:• Consensus November GDP forecast for the US improved from 2,1% to 2,2% for 2012 and

decreased from 2,0% to 1,9% for 2013.• Growth edged up to 2% q-o-q in Q3, but the 2013 outlook remains clouded by adverse fiscal

fundamentals and the ‘Fiscal Cliff’ looming. GDP growth in Q4 will likely be hurt by hurricane Sandy.

Japan:• The November GDP growth forecast for Japan decreased again considerably from 2,3% to

1,8% for 2012 and from 1,3% to 0,8% for 2013.• Japanese GDP forecasts have been significantly downgraded, driven in part by a collapse in Q3

production.

3 | Economic Indicators |

Eurostat Data


Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27

Source: Eurostat Nov 12

06Q

106

Q2

'06Q

3'0

6Q4

'07Q

1'0

7Q2

'07

Q3

'07

Q4

'08

Q1

'08

Q2

'08

Q3

'08

Q4

'09

Q1

'09

Q2

'09

Q3

'09

Q4

'10

Q1

'10

Q2

'10

Q3

'10

Q4

'11

Q1

'11

Q2

11 Q

311

Q4

12 Q

112

Q2

12 Q

312

Q4

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter vs same quarter of last year


Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27


'06Q

1'0

6Q2

'06Q

3'0

6Q4

'07Q

1'0

7Q2

'07

Q3

'07

Q4

'08

Q1

'08

Q2

'08

Q3

'08

Q4

'09

Q1

'09

Q2

'09

Q3

'09

Q4

'10

Q1

'10

Q2

'10

Q3

'10

Q4

'11

Q1

'11

Q2

11 Q

311

Q4

12 Q

112

Q2

12 Q

312

Q4

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter


Economic Indicators –EU 27 Consumer Price Index


'08/

1

'08/

4

'08/

7 '0

'09/

1

'09/

4

'09/

7 '0

'10/

1

'10/

4

'10/

7 '1

'11/

1

'11/

4

'11/

7 1

12/1 12 12 12

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

2.6

%

The harmonized index of consumer prices is the result of the collaboration between Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes of the Member States.


Economic Indicators – ECB interest rate

Source: ECB, FED Dec 12

Nov.12; 2,2

Dec 12; 0,75

Dec 12; 0,25

-0,50,00,51,01,52,02,53,03,54,04,55,05,5

Jan

08

July

08

Jan

09

Jul.

09

Jan

10

Jul.

10

Jan

11

July

11

Jan

12

Jul.

12

ECB short-term rate

Eurozone inflation

FED rate


Economic Indicators –EU 27 Unemployment Rate

Source: Eurostat Dec 12

Ja

n 0

8

Ap

r.0

8

Ju

ly 0

8

Oc

t 0

8

Ja

n 0

9

Ap

r.0

9

Ju

l.09

Oc

t 0

9

Ja

n 1

0

Ap

r.1

0

Ju

l.10

Oc

t 1

0

Ja

n 1

1

Ap

r.1

1

Ju

l.11

Oc

t 1

1

Ja

n 1

2

Ap

r.1

2

Ju

l.12

Oc

t 1

2

6

7

8

9

10

1110.7

Unemployment rate for EU 27 countries


Economic Indicators – Industrial Confidence Ind EU


Ja

n 0

6A

pr.

06

Ju

l.0

6O

ct

06

Ja

n 0

7A

pr.

07

Ju

ly 0

7O

ct

07

Ja

n 0

8A

pr.

08

Ju

l.0

8O

ct

08

Ja

n 0

9A

pr.

09

Ju

ly 0

9O

ct

09

Ja

n 1

0A

pr.

10

Ju

l.1

0O

ct

10

Ja

n 1

1A

pr.

11

Ju

l.1

1O

ct

11

Ja

n 1

2A

pr.

12

Ju

l.1

2O

ct

12

-40-35-30-25-20-15-10

-505

10

Industrial confidence within EU 27 improved in November.

The Industrial Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions on production expectations, order books and stocks.


Economic Indicators – Consumer Confidence Ind EU


Consumer Confidence within EU 27 improved slightly in November.

Jan

06

May

06

Sep

.06

Jan

07

May

07

Sep

.07

Jan

08

May

08

Sep

.08

Jan

09

May

09

Sep

.09

Jan

10

May

10

Sep

.10

Jan

11

May

11

Sep

.11

Jan

12

May

12

Sep

.12

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

The Consumer Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions on the financial situation of households and general economic situation (past and future) together with that on the advisability of making major purchases.


Economic Indicators – Capacity Utilization in Manufacturing Industry in % - EU 27


04

Q1

04

Q3

05

Q1

05

Q3

06

Q1

06

Q3

07

Q1 0

08

Q1 0

09

Q1 0

10

Q1 1

11

Q1 1

12

Q1

12

Q3

60

65

70

75

80

85

%

The capacity utilization in manufacturing industry gives the level of capacity utilization in percent, as assessed by managers in manufacturing industry.


Ifo Data


Economic Indicators – IFO World Economic Climate

Source: IFO Nov 12

The Ifo World Economic climate worsened again in the 4th quarter 2012

This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.


Economic Indicators – IFO WE Economic Climate

Source: IFO Nov 12

The economic climate for Western Europe worsened again in the 4th quarter 2012.

This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.


Economic Indicators – IFO NA Economic Climate

Source: IFO Nov 12This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.


Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Euro Area

Source: IFO Jul 12

GDP growth for 2012 was revised downwards from the December forecast.


Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Germany

Source: IFO Jul 12


Economic Indicators – Exchange rate $ vs €

Source: IFO Dec 12


Economic Indicators – Ifo business situation and 6 month expectations

Source: IFO Dec 12

Jan

08

Ap

r.08

Jul.0

8

Oct

08

Jan

09

Ap

r.09

July

09

Oct

09

Jan

10

Ap

r.10

Jul.1

0

Oct

10

Jan

11

Ap

r.11

Jul.1

1

Oct

11

Jan

12

Ap

r.12

Jul.1

2

Oct

12

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

Jan

08

Ap

r.08

Jul.0

8

Oct

08

Jan

09

Ap

r.09

Jul.0

9

Oct

09

Jan

10

Ap

r.10

Jul.1

0

Oct

10

Jan

11

Ap

r.11

Jul.1

1

Oct

11

Jan

12

Ap

r.12

Jul.1

2

Oct

12

80859095

100105110115120125

Business situation 6 months expectations

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business situation index shows the current evaluation of the economic situation, while the 6 month expectations index shows the expectations of the companies for the next 6 months. Over 7000 companies are being interviewed.

The Ifo Business Climate index for Germany rose again after six successive decreases. Companies expressed slightly greater satisfaction with their current business situation. They also were far less pessimistic about future business developments. The German economy is holding up in the face of the euro crisis.


Economic Indicators – IFO Assessment of Current Business Situation

Source: IFO Dec 12

The Ifo Business Climate index for Germany rose again after six successive decreases. Companies expressed slightly greater satisfaction with their current business situation. They also were far less pessimistic about future business developments. The German economy is holding up in the face of the euro crisis.


Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index printing industry

Source: IFO Dec 12, bundesverband druck und medien

Ja

n 0

8

Ap

r.0

8

Ju

l.08

Oc

t 0

8

Ja

n 0

9

Ap

r.0

9

Ju

l.09

Oc

t 0

9

Ja

n 1

0

Ap

r.1

0

Ju

l.10

Oc

t 1

0

Ja

n 1

1

Ap

r.1

1

Ju

l.11

Oc

t 1

1

Ja

n 1

2

Ap

r.1

2

Ju

l.12

Oc

t 1

2

-60-50-40-30-20-10

01020

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.

The business climate within the printing industry deteriorated from +1 to -9 in November.


Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index printing industry

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.

Business Development at German Printers – November 12:

The assessment of the current business situation in the printing industry remained on the same level like in October with+12%, in November 2011 the value was slightly lower with +8%.

The business climate – an indicator for the development in the next quarter – decreased from +1% to -9%, worse than in the same month last year (-3%).

The business expectations for the coming 6 months decreased considerably from -9% to -28%..

Source: IFO Dec 12, bundesverband druck und medien


Zenith Data


Advertising Growth – Zenith 12/12 Press release

Source: Zenith 12/12

Global ad expenditure forecast to strengthen over the next three years, rising from 3,3 % in 2012 to 4,1% in 2013 and 5,6% in 2015

Peripheral Eurozone to shrink 4,0% in 2013, stabilize in 2014 and grow 2% in 2015

Developing markets to contribute 61% of adspend growth between 2012 and 2015 and increase their share of global adspend from 34% to 37%

Online video and social media to help drive 20% annual growth in internet display over the next three years

Internet advertising to exceed combined newspaper and magazine total in 2015




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Economic indicators - Economic Monthly Overvies November 2012

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