Economic Indicators and Monthly Overview June 2015

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Economic Indicators

Last update 12.6.2015

| Economic Indicators | 2

Economic Outlook Monthly Overview – June 2015

Europe:

• Consensus June GDP forecast for WE remained stable on 1,7% for 2015 and on 1,9% for 2016.

• The EU industrial confidence improved very slightly in May while consumer confidence

deteriorated significantly.

• The IFO Business Climate index for Germany edged slightly downwards in May. Still, the

German economy remains on track.

• Recent data have been improving. GDP accelerated from 0,8% y-o-y growth in Q3 2014 to 0,9%

in Q4 2014 and 1,0% in Q1 2015. Household consumption helped to buoy activity. France and

Spain saw their recoveries accelerate in Q1 and spending in Germany has also been on an

upwards trend. US:

• Consensus June GDP forecast for the US came down strongly again from 2,5% to 2,2% for 2015

and remained stable on 2,8% for 2016.

• Harsh weather conditions and a strong US dollar led to weakening trade and manufacturing

fundamentals. The second estimate of US Q1 GDP growth showed a -0,7% q-o-q decline. For

the FED the shaky start to 2015 continues to spur debate over the timing of an interest rate rise.

Japan:

• The June GDP growth forecast for Japan improved slightly from 0,9% to 1,0% for 2015, and

remained on 1,7% for 2016.

• Q1 activity surprised many forecasters, beating expectations to grow by 1,0% q-o-q. Going

forward, slowdowns in the Chinese and US economies will negatively impact on Japanese

export demand.

3 | Economic Indicators |

Eurostat Data


Economic Indicators – GDP EU 28

Source: Eurostat Jun 15

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

09

Q1

10

Q1

11

Q1

12

Q1

13

Q1

14

Q1

15

Q1

%

GDP for the EU 28 countries at constant prices quarter vs. same quarter of last year


Economic Indicators – GDP EU 28


-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

09

Q1

10

Q1

11

Q1

12

Q1

13

Q1

14

Q1

15

Q1

%

GDP for the EU 28 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter


Economic Indicators –EU 28 Consumer Price Index


-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

09

/1

10

/1

11

/1

12

/1

13

/1

14

/1

15

/1

16

/1

%

The harmonized index of consumer prices is the result of the collaboration

between Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes of the Member States.


Economic Indicators – ECB interest rate

Source: ECB, FED, Eurostat Jun 15

May 15; 0,3

Jun.15; 0,05

Jun.15; 0,25

-1,0

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

Jan

09

Ju

l.09

Jan

10

Ju

l.10

Jan

11

Ju

ly 1

1

Jan

12

Ju

l.12

Jan

13

Ju

l.13

Jan

14

Ju

l.14

Jan

15

Ju

l.15

Jan

16

%

ECB short-term rate

Eurozone inflation

FED rate


Economic Indicators –EU 28 Unemployment Rate


9.7

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Ja

n 1

5

Jan

16

%

Unemployment rate for EU 28 countries


Economic Indicators – Industrial Confidence Ind EU

Source: Eurostat June 15

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Jan

15

Jan

16

Industrial confidence within EU 28 improved very slightly in May.

The Industrial Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the

questions on production expectations, order books and stocks.


Economic Indicators – Consumer Confidence Ind EU

Source: Eurostat June 15

Consumer Confidence within EU 28 deteriorated again in May.

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

Ja

n 0

9

Ja

n 1

0

Ja

n 1

1

Ja

n 1

2

Ja

n 1

3

Ja

n 1

4

Ja

n 1

5

Ja

n 1

6

The Consumer Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions

on the financial situation of households and general economic situation (past and future)

together with that on the advisability of making major purchases.


Economic Indicators – Capacity Utilization

in Manufacturing Industry in % - EU 27

Source: Eurostat May 15

60

65

70

75

80

85

04

Q1

05

Q1

06

Q1

07

Q1

08

Q1

09

Q1

10

Q1

11

Q1

12

Q1

13

Q1

14

Q1

15

Q1

81.2

%

The capacity utilization in manufacturing industry gives the level of capacity utilization

in percent, as assessed by managers in manufacturing industry.


Ifo Data


Economic Indicators – IFO World Economic Climate

Source: IFO May 15

The Ifo Index for the world economy rose to 99.5 points from 95.9 points last quarter.

The world economy is slowly gaining impetus.

This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.


Economic Indicators – IFO European Economic Climate

Source: IFO May 15

The economic climate in Europe continued its upwards trend in Q2 2015

This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.


Economic Indicators – IFO NA Economic Climate

Source: IFO May 15 This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.


Economic Indicators – IFO Asia Economic Climate

Source: IFO May 15 This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.


Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Euro Area

Source: IFO May 15


Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Germany

Source: IFO May 15


Economic Indicators – Exchange rate $ vs €

Source: IFO Apr 15


Economic Indicators –

Ifo business situation and 6 month expectations

Source: IFO Jun 15

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Jan

15

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Jan

15

Business situation 6 months expectations

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business situation index shows the current evaluation of the

economic situation, while the 6 month expectations index shows the expectations of the companies for the next

6 months. Over 7000 companies are being interviewed.

The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany edged slightly downwards in May. Companies

were once again more satisfied with their current business situation, but expressed slightly

less optimism about the month ahead. The German economy remains on track.


Economic Indicators – IFO Assessment of Current

Business Situation

Source: IFO June 15

The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany edged slightly downwards in May. Companies

were once again more satisfied with their current business situation, but expressed slightly

less optimism about the month ahead. The German economy remains on track.


Zenith Data


Global Advertising Growth

Source: ZenithOptimedia 12/14


Regional Advertising Development



Global Advertising Markets



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Economic Indicators and Monthly Overview June 2015

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