Economic indicators and Monthly Overview January 2015

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Economic Indicators

Last update 20.1.2015

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Economic Outlook Monthly Overview – January 2015

Europe:

• Consensus January GDP forecast for WE remained on 1,5% for 2015, for 2016 1,8% growth are

being forecasted.

• The EU industrial confidence decreased slightly in December while the consumer confidence

improved somewhat.

• The IFO Business Climate index for Germany rose in December– the dropping oil price and a

falling Euro exchange rate are seasonal gifts to the German economy.

• The Euro area remains beset by deflation. Still, the hope is, that the dramatic drop in oil prices

will give households a modest boost.

US:

• Consensus January GDP forecast for the US improved by 0,2%point to 3,2% for 2015, the

forecast for 2016 amounts to 2,8%.

• In Q3 2014 the economy expanded at a 5% pace, its fastest annualized increase in 11 years. The

drop in fuel prices is likely to continue supporting consumer expenditure in H1 2015, an improving

job market is also helping expectations. The strong USD and economic gloom in Europe could

affect exports but thus far it looks like the oil price effect is outweighing the external downturn.

Japan:

• The January GDP growth forecast for Japan remained stable on 1,2% for 2015, forecast for

2016 is 1,5%.

• Despite the economy plunging into recession in Q3 2014, the Japanese public backed Prime

Minister Shinzo Abe in December’s snap election. On the back of his triumph, the Japanese

leader announced a further Yen 3.5 tn stimulus package for the economy.

3 | Economic Indicators |

Eurostat Data


Economic Indicators – GDP EU 28

Source: Eurostat Nov 14

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

08

Q1

09

Q1

10

Q1

11

Q1

12

Q1

13

Q1

14

Q1

%

GDP for the EU 28 countries at constant prices quarter vs. same quarter of last year


Economic Indicators – GDP EU 28


-2,5

-2

-1,5

-1

-0,5

0

0,5

1

08

Q1

09

Q1

10

Q1

11

Q1

12

Q1

13

Q1

14

Q1

%

GDP for the EU 28 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter


Economic Indicators –EU 28 Consumer Price Index

Source: Eurostat Jan 15

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

09

/1

10

/1

11

/1

12

/1

13

/1

14

/1

15

/1

16

/1

-0,1

%

The harmonized index of consumer prices is the result of the collaboration

between Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes of the Member States.


Economic Indicators – ECB interest rate

Source: ECB, FED, Eurostat Jan 15

Dec 14; -0,2

Jan 15; 0,05

Jan 15; 0,25

-1,0

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

Jan

09

Ju

l.09

Jan

10

Ju

l.10

Jan

11

Ju

ly 1

1

Jan

12

Ju

l.12

Jan

13

Ju

l.13

Jan

14

Ju

l.14

Jan

15

Ju

l.15

%

ECB short-term rate

Eurozone inflation

FED rate


Economic Indicators –EU 28 Unemployment Rate


10

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Ja

n 1

5

Jan

16

%

Unemployment rate for EU 28 countries


Economic Indicators – Industrial Confidence Ind EU


-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Jan

15

Jan

16

Industrial confidence within EU 28 decreased slightly in December.

The Industrial Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the

questions on production expectations, order books and stocks.


Economic Indicators – Consumer Confidence Ind EU


Consumer Confidence within EU 28 improved slightly in December.

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

Ja

n 0

9

Ja

n 1

0

Ja

n 1

1

Ja

n 1

2

Ja

n 1

3

Ja

n 1

4

Ja

n 1

5

Ja

n 1

6

The Consumer Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions

on the financial situation of households and general economic situation (past and future)

together with that on the advisability of making major purchases.


Economic Indicators – Capacity Utilization

in Manufacturing Industry in % - EU 27


60

65

70

75

80

85

04

Q1

05

Q1

06

Q1

07

Q1

08

Q1

09

Q1

10

Q1

11

Q1

12

Q1

13

Q1

14

Q1

80,3

%

The capacity utilization in manufacturing industry gives the level of capacity utilization

in percent, as assessed by managers in manufacturing industry.


Ifo Data


Economic Indicators – IFO World Economic Climate

Source: IFO Nov 14

The Ifo World Economic climate deteriorated in Q4 2014. The upswing in the world

Economy is suffering a setback.

This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.


Economic Indicators – IFO European Economic Climate

Source: IFO Nov 14

The economic climate in Europe showed a marked decline in Q4 2014.

This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.


Economic Indicators – IFO NA Economic Climate

Source: IFO Nov 14 This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.


Economic Indicators – IFO Asia Economic Climate

Source: IFO Nov 14 This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.


Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Euro Area

Source: IFO Oct 14


Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Germany

Source: IFO Oct 14


Economic Indicators – Exchange rate $ vs €

Source: IFO Dec 14


Economic Indicators –

Ifo business situation and 6 month expectations

Source: IFO Dec 14

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Jan

15

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Jan

15

Business situation 6 months expectations

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business situation index shows the current evaluation of the

economic situation, while the 6 month expectations index shows the expectations of the companies for the next

6 months. Over 7000 companies are being interviewed.

The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany rose in December based on unchanged

assessments of the current business situation and further brightened expectations with regard

to the six-month business outlook. Dropping oil prices and a falling Euro exchange rate are

seasonal gifts to the German economy.


Economic Indicators – IFO Assessment of Current

Business Situation

The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany rose in December based on unchanged

assessments of the current business situation and further brightened expectations with regard

to the six-month business outlook. Dropping oil prices and a falling Euro exchange rate are

seasonal gifts to the German economy. Source: IFO Dec 14


Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index

printing industry

Source: IFO Jan 15, bundesverband druck und medien

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Jan

15

Jan

16

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is

based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.

The business climate within the printing industry improved from -15 to -1 in December


Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index

printing industry

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is

based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.

Business Development at German Printers – December 2014:

The assessment of the current business situation in the printing

industry further improved from +21% to now +22%, its highest level in

2014, but still slightly below the December 2013 value (+25%).

The business expectations for the coming 6 months turned their

negative trend from the previous months, improving from -45% to now

-21%.

The business climate – an indicator for the development in

the next quarter – returned close to the zero line, reaching -1%.

Source: IFO Dec 14, bundesverband druck und medien


Zenith Data


Global Advertising Growth

Source: ZenithOptimedia 12/14


Regional Advertising Development



Global Advertising Markets



Advertising by medium


Economic indicators and Monthly Overview January 2015

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