Monthly Economic Indicators And Charts

May 2019

Richard F. Moody- Chief EconomistSteve Pfitzer – Investor Relations

Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized sources believed to be reliable. This information has not been verified by us, and we do not make any representations about accuracy, completeness or reliability. Any opinions expressed are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.

2

Monthly Highlights / CommentarySoon-To-Be Record Long Expansion Showing No Signs Of Quit

• The BEA’s initial estimate pegs annualized Q1 2019 real GDP growth at 3.2 percent, toppingeven the most optimistic forecast. Q1 growth could have been even better – BEA estimates thatthe partial government shutdown shaved three-tenths of a point off of Q1 real GDP growth. Tobe sure, Q1 growth was flattered by another sizable build in business inventories and there willbe payback in the Q2 data, but full-year 2019 growth should land between 2.2 and 2.7 percent.

• Talk about topping expectations, total nonfarm employment rose by 263,000 jobs in April, alsotopping the most optimistic forecast. While we think the estimate of a 27,000-jobs increase ingovernment payrolls is exaggerated, private sector payrolls rose by 236,000 jobs in April, andover the past 12 months private sector payrolls have risen by just under 2.5 million jobs. Jobgrowth remains notably broad based, which is a sign this expansion has further to run – keep inmind that, come July, this will become the longest expansion on record.

• One area of concern at present is the manufacturing sector. While the ISM Manufacturing Indexcontinues to point to expansion in the factory sector, the pace of that expansion has fallen offand job gains in manufacturing have slowed to a crawl. Slower global economic growth, aninventory overhang, and a decelerating pace of motor vehicle sales will weigh on the factorysector over coming months, though we see the first two of these factors as transitory.

• After ending 2018 on a distressingly soft note, the housing market has shown signs of renewedlife in 2019. Lower mortgage interest rates and solid job and income growth are fueling growthin demand for home purchases, and we see room for steady, though not spectacular, growth insingle family construction and sales over coming months.

• With solid growth and muted inflation pressures, interest rates will likely be somewhat rangebound over coming months. The FOMC has rightly adopted a patient approach to any furtherchanges in the Fed funds rate – in either direction – and will be on hold for some time to come.

8  Indicator: 

Last Observation: 

 Reported As: 

 Value: 

  % Change Year  Ago, or Year Ago Value: 

Real GDP  Q1 2019 (1st est.)  Annualized % change  3.17%    3.21%            Payroll Employment  April 2019  Monthly change, thousands of jobs  +263    1.76% Private Sector Employment  April 2019  Monthly change, thousands of jobs  +236    1.97% Unemployment Rate  April 2019  % of labor force  3.6%    3.9% “U6” Unemployment/Underemployment  April 2019  % of labor force  7.3%    7.8% Unemployed 27 Weeks or More  April 2019  Millions of people  1.230    1.311 Aggregate Private Sector Earnings  April 2019  Monthly % change  0.11%    4.97%            Real Personal Disposable Income  March 2019  Monthly % change      2.34% Real Personal Disposable Income ex‐Transfers  March 2019  Monthly % change      1.75% Real Personal Consumption Expenditures  March 2019  Monthly % change  0.67%    2.51% Personal Savings Rate  March 2019  % of disposable personal income  6.50%    7.20%            Consumer Price Index – Total   March 2019  Monthly % change  0.41%    1.86% Consumer Price Index – Core  March 2019  Monthly % change  0.15%    2.04% Producer Price Index – Final Demand   March 2019  Monthly % change  0.60%    2.17% Producer Price Index – Core Final Demand  March 2019  Monthly % change  0.26%    2.45%            Single Family Housing Permits  March 2019  Seasonally adjusted annual rate  808,000    851,000 Multi‐Family Housing Permits  March 2019  Seasonally adjusted annual rate  461,000    526,000 Single Family Housing Starts  March 2019  Seasonally adjusted annual rate  785,000    882,000 Multi‐Family Housing Starts  March 2019  Seasonally adjusted annual rate  354,000    445,000            Industrial Production  March 2019  Monthly % change      2.77% ISM Manufacturing Index  April 2019  Index value, %  52.8%    57.9% ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index  April 2019  Index value, %  51.7%    61.2% ISM Non‐Manufacturing Index  April 2019  Index value, %  55.5%    57.2% ISM Non‐Manufacturing New Orders Index  April 2019  Index Value, %  58.1%    60.0%            Federal Funds Rate Target Range Mid‐Point  May 3, 2019  Percent  2.375%    1.625% One‐Month LIBOR Rate  May 3, 2019  Percent  2.48%    1.92% 3‐Month U.S. Treasury Bill Yield  May 3, 2019  Percent  2.41%    1.84% 2‐Year U.S. Treasury Note Yield  May 3, 2019  Percent  2.32%    2.49% 10‐Year U.S. Treasury Note Yield  May 3, 2019  Percent  2.52%    2.94% Dollar‐Euro Exchange Rate  May 3, 2019  Euros per U.S. dollar  0.8935    0.8354 Dollar‐Yen Exchange Rate  May 3, 2019  Yen per U.S. dollar  111.18    109.06 Federal Reserve Broad U.S. Dollar Index  April 26, 2019  Index value, 1997 = 100  127.9894    119.7177 

ECONOMIC/FINANCIAL DATA HIGHLIGHTS – May 2019 

Contribution To Real GDP Growth

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q4 '17 Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18 Q4 '18 Q1 '19PCE Business Fixed Inv. Res. Fixed Inv. Inventories Net Exports Government

percentage points

 

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Real GDPAnnualized Percentage Change

Unemployment Rate, %

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

U6 (unemployment/underemployment)U3 (unemployment)

Total Payroll Employment

-900-800-700-600-500-400-300-200-100

0100200300400500

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-8

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

monthly change, seasonally adjusted,thousands (L)

12-month change, not seasonallyadjusted, millions (R)

Civilian Labor Force

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

labor force participation rate (%) employment-to-population ratio, %

   Long-Term Unemployed

Unemployed for 27 Weeks or Longer, Millions of People

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Consumers’ Assessment of Labor Market Conditions-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

5078 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

Spread between “jobs plentiful” and"jobs hard to get", inverse scale (L)Unemployment rate, % (R)

Private Sector Hiring Diffusion Index

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

one month ago six months ago

Net % of private sectorindustries hiring compared to:

3-month moving averages

   

Real Disposable Personal Income% change year ago

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Total Excluding transfers

Personal Spending, Saving

-4-3-2-10123456789

101112

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Personal consumption expenditures, % change year agoPersonal saving rate, % of disposable personal income

Real Consumer Spending% change year ago

-15.0

-12.5

-10.0

-7.5

-5.0

-2.5

0.0

2.5

5.0

7.5

10.0

12.5

15.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

durable goods nondurable goods services

Total Household Debt

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 00 04 08 12 16

% of disposable personal incomeexcluding transfer payments

% of disposable personal income

Household Financial Obligations Ratio% of disposable income

14.5

15.0

15.5

16.0

16.5

17.0

17.5

18.0

18.5

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18

   

Consumer Confidence Index1985 = 100

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18

Present Conditions Expectations

Industrial Production, Capacity UtilizationAll Sectors

-20

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1965.0

67.5

70.0

72.5

75.0

77.5

80.0

82.5

Industrial Production, % changeyear ago (L)Capacity Utilization Rate, % (R)

Industrial Production, Capacity UtilizationManufacturing Sector

-18

-15

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1962.5

65.0

67.5

70.0

72.5

75.0

77.5

80.0

82.5

Industrial Production, % changeyear ago (L)Capacity Utilization Rate, % (R)

ISM Indexdiffusion index, net percentage

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Manufacturing Index Non-Manufacturing Index

above 50.0 % indicates expansion;below 50.0% indicates contraction

Housing Starts (000’s of units)not seasonally adjusted, 12-month moving sum

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450Single Family (L) Multi-Family (R)

   

Housing Permits (000’s of units)not seasonally adjusted, 12-month moving sum

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550Single Family (L) Multi-Family (R)

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1945

50

55

60

65

70

% change year ago (L)$ billion (R)

Core Capital Goods Orders3-month moving averages

Foreclosure Starts – United Statesnumber of loans

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Total Judicial States Non-Judicial States

   Home Sales (000’s of units)

not seasonally adjusted, 12-month moving sum

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19250

350

450

550

650

750

850

950

1,050

1,150

1,250

1,350

Existing Homes (L) New Homes (R)

Foreclosure Starts – Regions Footprintnumber of loans

0

25,000

50,000

75,000

100,000

125,000

150,000

175,000

200,000

225,000

250,000

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Total Judicial States Non-Judicial States

Index of House Prices% change year ago

-20

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

20

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

FHFA - Purchase Only Core Logic

Existing Home Inventories

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 192

4

6

8

10

12

14Units available for sale, ths (L) Months Supply (R)

   

Median Home Prices$ thousands, 6-month moving average

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

325

350

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

New Homes Existing Homes

New Home Inventories

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 192

4

6

8

10

12

14Units available for sale, ths (L) Months Supply (R)

CoreLogic Loan Performance DataUnited States

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

REO Inventory, ths (L)90+day delinquency rate, % (R)

Bank Charge-Off Rates By Loan Type, %

0123456789

1011121314

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

HELOC Mortgage Credit Cards Other Consumer Loans

   

Survey of Senior Lending Officers – C&I Loansnet % of banks reporting rising loan demand from:

-80

-70-60

-50

-40-30

-20

-10

010

20

3040

50

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

large/medium firms small firms

Survey of Senior Lending Officers – Prime Mortgagesnet % of banks reporting:

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

stronger loan demand tighter lending standards

Producer Price Index% change year ago

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Total PPI Core PPI

WTI Crude Oil, Retail Gasoline Prices

102030405060708090

100110120130140

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 191.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

WTI, $ per bbl (L) gasoline, $ per gallon (R)

Selected Interest Rates, %weekly data

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

6.00

6.50

7.00

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

10-year TreasuryAAA Corporate Bond30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage

Spread Between Yields On 10-year and 2-year Treasury Notesweekly data

-0.250.000.25

0.500.751.001.25

1.501.752.002.25

2.502.753.00

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

   

Consumer Price Index% change year ago

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Total CPI Core CPI

TED Spreadspread between 3-month LIBOR and 3-month T-bill, %

0.000.250.500.751.001.251.501.752.002.252.502.753.003.253.50

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Japanese Yen per U.S. Dollarweekly data

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Chinese Yuan per U.S. Dollarweekly data

6.00

6.20

6.40

6.60

6.80

7.00

7.20

7.40

7.60

7.80

8.00

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Euros per U.S. Dollarweekly data

0.60

0.64

0.68

0.72

0.76

0.80

0.84

0.88

0.92

0.96

1.00

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

   

Monthly Econ Review - May 2019Data Table - May 2019Charts - May 2019