Economic Indicators and Monthly Overview April 2015

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Economic Indicators

Last update 17.4.2015

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Economic Outlook Monthly Overview – April 2015

Europe:

• Consensus April GDP forecast for WE improved again from 1,6% to 1,7% for 2015 and from

1,8% to 1,9% for 2016.

• The EU industrial confidence improved slightly again in March from the previous month and

consumer confidence continued its path of considerable improvement.

• The IFO Business Climate index for Germany rose again in March, reaching its highest level

since July 2014. The German economy continues to expand.

• Optimism is growing in the Eurozone with stronger domestic demand fuelling growth in Germany

and Spain supported by the continued depression in consumer prices.

US:

• Consensus April GDP forecast for the US came down again from 3,1% to 2,9% for 2015 and from

2,9% to 2,8% for 2016.

• Declining US forecasts appear to underline the economy’s below-par end to 2014 and

subsequent downbeat mood in Q1 2015. Fears remain over the stalling demand for exports,

negatively impacted by the strong US dollar.

Japan:

• The April GDP growth forecast for Japan decreased from 1,1% to 1,0% for 2015, and remained

on 1,7% for 2016.

• The GDP outlook has worsened following a spate of disappointing data. The hope is that better

wage prospects, as well as lower inflation, will encourage consumers.

3 | Economic Indicators |

Eurostat Data


Economic Indicators – GDP EU 28

Source: Eurostat Feb 15

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

08

Q1

09

Q1

10

Q1

11

Q1

12

Q1

13

Q1

14

Q1

%

GDP for the EU 28 countries at constant prices quarter vs. same quarter of last year


Economic Indicators – GDP EU 28


-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

08

Q1

09

Q1

10

Q1

11

Q1

12

Q1

13

Q1

14

Q1

%

GDP for the EU 28 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter


Economic Indicators –EU 28 Consumer Price Index

Source: Eurostat Apr 15

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

09

/1

10

/1

11

/1

12

/1

13

/1

14

/1

15

/1

16

/1

%

The harmonized index of consumer prices is the result of the collaboration

between Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes of the Member States.


Economic Indicators – ECB interest rate

Source: ECB, FED, Eurostat Apr 15

Mar 15; -0,1

Apr.15; 0,05

Apr.15; 0,25

-1,0

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

Jan

09

Ju

l.09

Jan

10

Ju

l.10

Jan

11

Ju

ly 1

1

Jan

12

Ju

l.12

Jan

13

Ju

l.13

Jan

14

Ju

l.14

Jan

15

Ju

l.15

%

ECB short-term rate

Eurozone inflation

FED rate


Economic Indicators –EU 28 Unemployment Rate


9.8

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Ja

n 1

5

Jan

16

%

Unemployment rate for EU 28 countries


Economic Indicators – Industrial Confidence Ind EU


-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Jan

15

Jan

16

Industrial confidence within EU 28 improved very slightly again in March.

The Industrial Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the

questions on production expectations, order books and stocks.


Economic Indicators – Consumer Confidence Ind EU


Consumer Confidence within EU 28 improved again significantly in March.

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

Ja

n 0

9

Ja

n 1

0

Ja

n 1

1

Ja

n 1

2

Ja

n 1

3

Ja

n 1

4

Ja

n 1

5

Ja

n 1

6

The Consumer Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions

on the financial situation of households and general economic situation (past and future)

together with that on the advisability of making major purchases.


Economic Indicators – Capacity Utilization

in Manufacturing Industry in % - EU 27


60

65

70

75

80

85

04

Q1

05

Q1

06

Q1

07

Q1

08

Q1

09

Q1

10

Q1

11

Q1

12

Q1

13

Q1

14

Q1

15

Q1

80.3

%

The capacity utilization in manufacturing industry gives the level of capacity utilization

in percent, as assessed by managers in manufacturing industry.


Ifo Data


Economic Indicators – IFO World Economic Climate

Source: IFO Feb 15

The Ifo World Economic climate edged slightly upwards in Q1 2015.

Overall the world economy showed little dynamism.

This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.


Economic Indicators – IFO European Economic Climate

Source: IFO Feb 15

The economic climate in Europe turned upwards in Q1 2015

This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.


Economic Indicators – IFO NA Economic Climate

Source: IFO Feb 15 This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.


Economic Indicators – IFO Asia Economic Climate

Source: IFO Feb 15 This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.


Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Euro Area

Source: IFO Dec 14


Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Germany

Source: IFO Dec 14


Economic Indicators – Exchange rate $ vs €

Source: IFO Apr 15


Economic Indicators –

Ifo business situation and 6 month expectations

Source: IFO Apr 15

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Jan

15

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Jan

15

Business situation 6 months expectations

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business situation index shows the current evaluation of the

economic situation, while the 6 month expectations index shows the expectations of the companies for the next

6 months. Over 7000 companies are being interviewed.

The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany rose again in March and reached its highest level

since July 2014. Companies were more satisfied with their current business situation. They

also expressed far greater optimism about future business developments. The German

economy continues to expand.


Economic Indicators – IFO Assessment of Current

Business Situation

Source: IFO Apr 15

The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany rose again in March and reached its highest level

since July 2014. Companies were more satisfied with their current business situation. They

also expressed far greater optimism about future business developments. The German

economy continues to expand.


Zenith Data


Global Advertising Growth

Source: ZenithOptimedia 12/14


Regional Advertising Development



Global Advertising Markets



Advertising by medium


Economic Indicators and Monthly Overview April 2015

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