Maine Economic Indicators

January 2020

Maine Department of Administrative and Financial Services

Office of the State Economist

Amanda Rector, State Economist

Angela Hallowell, Economic Analyst

Maine Economic Indicators is a monthly report assembled by the Office of the State Economist that provides a

synopsis of current economic trends and indicators for the state in comparison to New England and the United

States. The intent of this report is to provide the public with a single document containing data aggregated from

different sources typically used to track current economic and demographic conditions in the state.

This report includes monthly, quarterly, and annual data released at varying points throughout the year. The

appendix provides comprehensive information related to the data presented herein. Data included in this report are

assembled from various sources, subject to frequent revision, and provided in this report “as is” at the time of

publication. Therefore, data presented in this report are subject to change over time.

Maine Economic Indicators -January.docx

1 Snapshot

Indicators in this section provide a summary of Maine’s current economic status. Figures for Maine are compared

to New England and the United States. Sources are given in the appendix.

Reference Period Maine New England United States

2019 Total population 1,344,212 14,845,063 328,239,523

2018-2019 Annual population percent change 0.4% 0.1% 0.5%

2010-2019 Cumulative population percent change 1.2% 2.8% 6.3%

2018 Average earnings per job $50,247 $69,987 $62,321

2017-2018 Average earnings per job percent change 2.9% 2.8% 2.9%

December 2019 Unemployment rate 2.9% 3.0% 3.5%

December 2019 Total private nonfarm employment 535,100 6,542,300 129,737,000

Annualized Percent Change from the previous quarter and Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)

Real GDP 2018:Q3 2018:Q4 2019:Q1 2019:Q2 2019:Q3 CAGR 2018:Q3-2019:Q3

Maine 2.8 -1.8 4.8 0.6 2.1 1.4

New England 2.4 0.1 4.8 1.3 2.1 2.1

United States 2.9 1.1 3.1 2.0 2.1 2.1

Total Personal Income 2018:Q3 2018:Q4 2019:Q1 2019:Q2 2019:Q3 CAGR 2018:Q3-2019:Q3

Maine 4.3 1.7 8.7 3.7 3.4 4.3

New England 4.5 2.7 8.5 2.3 2.9 4.1

United States 4.6 3.6 6.2 4.4 3.8 4.5

Per Capita Personal Income 2018:Q3 2018:Q4 2019:Q1 2019:Q2 2019:Q3 CAGR 2018:Q3-2019:Q3

Maine 4.0 1.4 8.5 3.5 3.1 4.1

New England 4.1 2.3 8.3 2.0 2.5 3.7

United States 3.9 2.9 5.6 3.8 3.1 3.9

Wages & Salaries 2018:Q3 2018:Q4 2019:Q1 2019:Q2 2019:Q3 CAGR 2018:Q3-2019:Q3

Maine 3.8 -1.0 13.2 0.5 4.0 4.1

New England 3.6 1.6 14.8 -1.1 3.3 4.5

United States 4.5 2.1 10.2 2.7 3.5 4.6

Maine Economic Indicators -January.docx

2 Annual Indicators

Indicators summarized below are updated annually on various release dates and provide a general summary of

Maine’s demographic and economic status.

Reference Period Maine New England United States

2019 Total population 1,344,212 14,845,063 328,239,523

2018-2019 Annual population percent change 0.4% 0.1% 0.5%

2010-2019 Cumulative population percent change 1.2% 2.8% 6.3%

2019 Births 12,073 145,125 3,791,712

2019 Deaths 14,335 131,609 2,835,038

2019 Net migration 5,039 2,428 595,348

2018-2019 Annual rate of total net migration (Maine ranks 16th in the U.S.)

5.6% 0.00% 1.8%

2018 Median age, years (American Community Survey)

45.1 40.8 38.2

2018 Associate’s degree: percent of population age 25 and above

9.7% 8.2% 8.6%

2018 Bachelor’s degree: percent of population age 25 and above

20.1% 22.8% 20.0%

2018 Graduate or professional degree: percent of population age 25 and above

11.4% 17.6% 12.6%

2018 Percent of population below poverty level 11.6% 10.3% 13.1%

2018 Median family income $72,390 $93,690 $76,401

2018 Median household income $55,602 $73,199 $61,937

2018 Per capita personal consumption expenditures

$45,497 $52,515 $42,757

2018 Per capita disposable personal income $43,909 $58,562 $48,101

Maine Economic Indicators -January.docx

3 Monthly and Quarterly Indicators

3.1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Real GDP in Maine increased by 2.1 percent from the preceding quarter (2019:Q2 to 2019:Q3), equal (after

rounding) to New England’s and the United States’ rates and 24th in the country. In 2019:Q3, the industries that

contributed the most to GDP growth were Retail Trade (0.72 points) and Accommodation and Food Services (0.33

points). These gains were partially offset by losses in Finance and Insurance (-0.43 points) and Utilities (-0.22

points)

Reference Period Maine United States

2019:Q3 Total GDP (current dollars) $67.91 billion $21.54 trillion

3.1.1 GDPNow

GDPNow, which is reported by the Atlanta Fed, is “a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available data

for the current quarter.” This model uses a similar methodology to the one used by Bureau of Economic Analysis in

their official GDP estimates and is revised each time the monthly source data is updated. The latest forecast

(January 17, 2020) estimates that real GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2019 is 1.8 percent.

2019:Q3, $58.63

$48

$50

$52

$54

$56

$58

$60

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Rea

l G

DP

(b

illio

ns

of

chai

ned

2012

do

llars

)

Real GDP (billions of chained 2012 dollars) - Maine

Maine Economic Indicators -January.docx

3.1.2 Recession Indicators

The GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index is 3.9 percentage points (2019:Q3). This indicates that the national

economy remains in an expansionary phase, the longest expansion in US economic history (previously 1991:Q2 –

2001:Q1)

The index ranges from 0 to 100, and values above 67 provide a historically reliable indicator that the economy is

in recession1. Compared to National Bureau of Economics Research (NBER)’s subjective method of announcing

recessionary periods, this method is purely mathematical. In addition, this index is calculated with a one quarter

lag, which allows for extra insight and accounts for data revisions to make dependable inference. Therefore, the

index does not get revised once it is published.

Additionally, the Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator2 signals a recession when the 3-month moving average

of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises by at least 0.5 percentage points relative to its low in the previous 12

months. This is revised each year at the beginning of January, when the BLS revises its unemployment rate each

year. In December 2019, this indicator showed that the three-month average of national U3 grew by 0.0 percentage

points compared to its 12-month low.

1 Created by Dr. James Hamilton, University of California San Diego 2 Created by Dr. Claudia Sahm, Federal Reserve Board of Governors

Maine Economic Indicators -January.docx

3.2 Personal Income: Total and Per Capita

State total personal income in Maine increased by 3.4 percent from the preceding quarter (2019:Q2 to 2019:Q3) and

grew by 4.3% on an annualized basis. The annualized growth rate ranks 31st nationally and is the highest in New

England, tied with New Hampshire. Maine’s total personal income ranks 42nd nationally. In terms of per capita

income, Maine ranks 30th in the United States.

Reference Period Maine New England United States

2019:Q3 Total personal income $68.77 billion $1055.72 billion $18,723.38 billion

2019:Q3 Per capita personal income $51,242 $70,823 $56,832

3.3 Labor Markets and Employment

The data for unemployment rates and labor force are derived from the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

program and data for nonfarm payroll jobs are derived from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program.

The numbers presented below are estimates, vary month to month in either direction, and are subject to substantial

revision. The Maine Department of Labor cautions users to analyze general trends over several months as opposed

to making conclusions based on changes month to month.

3.3.1 Unemployment Rate: December 2019 = 2.9%

Preliminary estimates for December show the unemployment rate in Maine is 2.9%. The rates for both Maine and

New England (3.0%) are lower than the national unemployment rate of 3.5 percent. Compared to last year

(December 2018), the unemployment rate in Maine is 0.6 percentage points lower. Maine is tied with Idaho for

the 7th lowest unemployment rate in the US.

3.3.2 Labor Force Participation Rate: December 2019 = 62.3%

Labor force participation has seen a steady decline since early 2018. Compared to the United States, Maine has a

diverging downward trend. The December 2019 estimate amounts to a 0.8 percentage point decline compared to

December 2018.

US, 3.5

ME, 2.8

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Un

emp

loym

ent

Rat

e

Unemployment Rate

United States New England Maine

Maine Economic Indicators -January.docx

3.3.3 Total Nonfarm Payroll Job Estimates: December 2019 = 635,300

Preliminary estimates show that compared to December 2018, Maine’s growth in total employment leads New

England and lags the US slightly, at 1.2% compared to 0.8% and 1.4%, respectively.

63.2

62.30

6000%

6100%

6200%

6300%

6400%

6500%

6600%

6700%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Par

tici

pat

ion

Rat

eLabor force participation rate

US ME

635.3

560.0

570.0

580.0

590.0

600.0

610.0

620.0

630.0

640.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Em

plo

ymen

t (t

ho

usa

nd

s)

Total Nonfarm employment - Maine

Maine Economic Indicators -January.docx

3.4 Housing Prices

In the third quarter of 2019, the housing price index (HPI) in Maine, New England, and the U.S. continued to rise.

According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), the HPI “measures average price changes in repeat

sales or refinancing on the same properties.” Maine’s HPI increased by 2.8 percent from the previous quarter

(2019:Q2 to 2019:Q3). Maine’s year-over-year HPI growth rate was significantly higher than both the regional

growth rate and the national growth rate at 7.9%. The median price of homes sold in Maine in December was

$234,000 – 7.8% higher than December 2018. The number of homes sold was 23.2% higher than December 2018.

Reference Period Maine New England United States

2019:Q2 - 2019:Q3 HPI percent change from previous quarter 2.8% 1.4% 1.1%

-6.0%

-5.0%

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Per

cen

t ch

ange

Percent change, year-over-year in Total Nonfarm Employment

US NE ME

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Yea

r-o

ver

-yea

r p

erce

nt

chan

ge

Percent Changes, Year-over-year in FHFA House Price Index (Seasonally Adjusted)

US NE ME

Maine Economic Indicators -January.docx

3.4.1 Median Housing Prices and Units Sold – County (December 2019)

Geography No. of Units Sold

One Year

Change

Median Sale Price

One Year Change (Price)

One Month Change (Price)

Androscoggin 92 12.2% $167,500 6.5% -5.9%

Aroostook 43 10.3% $63,000 -21.4% -35.9%

Cumberland 346 27.7% $314,975 6.1% -4.4%

Franklin 52 52.9% $160,000 10.3% 18.5%

Hancock 80 23.1% $222,250 17.6% 4.5%

Kennebec 109 9.0% $170,000 6.4% -1.4%

Knox 48 14.3% $245,700 -2.7% -1.7%

Lincoln 55 61.8% $219,000 -7.4% -8.7%

Oxford 83 29.7% $176,000 10.5% 0.3%

Penobscot 147 25.6% $159,500 18.2% 10.4%

Piscataquis 22 37.5% $90,500 -13.6% -21.3%

Sagadahoc 50 42.9% $245,750 0.3% 5.7%

Somerset 41 0.0% $125,000 35.9% -6.7%

Waldo 38 11.8% $174,000 -16.1% -7.1%

Washington 34 25.9% $136,000 15.7% -9.3%

York 257 20.1% $300,000 10.9% 3.8%

Maine 1,497 23.2%

$234,000 7.8% 4.0%

3.5 Heating Oil Prices: January 20, 2020 = $2.64 per gallon

The first half of the winter heating season has shown significantly lower prices compared to last year, though higher

than the 2016-17 and 2017-18 seasons. The current price is substantially lower than the US average of $3.07 per

gallon and is the lowest price on the East Coast. The numbers represented below are statewide averages and prices

vary across geographic regions. Heating oil releases are regularly updated between October and March as well as

occasionally during the summer months.

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

October November December January February March

Pri

ce p

er

gall

on

Maine No. 2 Heating Oil Residential Price

Winter 2016-2017 Winter 2017-2018 Winter 2018-2019 Winter 2019-2020

Maine Economic Indicators -January.docx

3.6 Trade Outlook

3.6.1 Exports

Year-over-year comparisons show that compared to November 2018, total exports for November 2019 in Maine

rose by 2.0 percent. Year-over-year comparisons show that total exports decreased by 1.8 percent nationally and

by 0.7 percent across New England in November 2019. During this period, Canada (62.4%), Malaysia (3.1%) and

the United Kingdom (2.8%) are the top three export destinations, while Maine’s top three import partners were

Canada (70.2%), Germany (3.2%) and China (2.7%).

3.6.2 Real Trade Weighted Value of the Dollar (RTWVD)

This index compares the value of the dollar against the currencies of the countries with which Maine trades.

RTWVD represents the dollar’s purchasing power relative to the foreign currencies mentioned above. When the

value of the dollar increases in relation to export partners’ currencies, exports becomes more expensive to partner

countries. Compared to November 2018, Maine’s RTWVD in November 2019 has increased by 0.3%.

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Per

cen

t C

han

ge

Year-over-year change in RTWVD for Maine

-60.0%

-40.0%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Yea

r-o

ver

-yea

r p

erce

nt

chan

ge

Percent Changes, Year-over-year in Total Exports

Maine U.S.

Maine Economic Indicators -January.docx

November 2019 Trading Partners

Top 10 export partners

Canada

Malaysia

United Kingdom

China

Netherlands

Japan

South Korea

Singapore

Germany

Mexico

Top 10 import parters

Canada

Germany

China

Colombia

United Kingdom

Russia

Mexico

France

Japan

Burma

Maine Economic Indicators -January.docx

4 Appendix

4.1 Data Sources

Indicator Source Reference Period Release Date

Population: estimates and percent change Census Bureau – Pop. Ests. 2019 December 30, 2019

Net migration: total and percent change Census Bureau – Pop. Ests. 2019 December 30, 2019

Median age American Community Survey 1 year 2018 September 26, 2019

Educational attainment Census Bureau – ACS 1-year 2018 September 26, 2019

Poverty level Census Bureau – ACS 1-year 2018 September 26, 2019

Income Census Bureau – ACS 1-year 2018 September 26, 2019

Per capita personal consumption expenditure U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 2018 October 3, 2019

Per capita personal income U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 2019:Q3 December 18,2019

Average earnings per job U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 2018 September 24, 2019

Gross domestic product U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 2019:Q3 January 10, 2020

GDPNow Atlanta Fed 2019:Q4 December 29, 2019

GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index Hamilton, James/FRED 2019:Q2 November 9, 2019

Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator Sahm, Claudia/FRED December 2019 January 10, 2020

Personal income: total, per capita, and wages and salaries U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 2019:Q3 December 18, 2019

Unemployment rate U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics December 2019 January 24, 2020

Labor force participation U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics December 2019 January 24, 2020

Nonfarm payroll job estimates U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics December 2019 January 24, 2020

Housing price index Federal Housing Finance Agency 2019:Q3 November 26, 2019

MEREDA Index Maine Real Estate & Development Association 2019:Q1 May 8, 2019

Housing: Units and Median Sale Price Maine Association of REALTORS® November 2019 December 22, 2019

Energy prices Energy Information Administration January 20, 2020 January 20, 2020

Exports Census Bureau – USA Trade Online November 2019 January 7, 2020

Real trade weighted value of the dollar Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas November 2019 January 7, 2020

Export and Import Partners Census Bureau – USA Trade Online November 2019 January 7, 2020

Maine Economic Indicators -January.docx

4.2 Glossary

Average earnings per job: Total earnings, which is the sum of wages and salaries, supplements to wages and salaries,

and proprietors’ income, divided by total full-time and part-time employment.

Compound Annual Growth Rate: = (𝐹𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒

𝐼𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒)

1

𝑁𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝑃𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑑𝑠 − 1

Gross Domestic Product: The measure of the market value of all final goods and services produced within a state in

a particular period of time. GDP by state differs from national GDP for the following reasons: GDP by state

excludes and national GDP includes the compensation of federal civilian and military personnel stationed abroad

and government consumption of fixed capital for military structures located abroad and for military equipment,

except office equipment. Real GDP: Real GDP by state is an inflation-adjusted measure of each state's gross

product that is based on national prices for the goods and services produced within the state. The real estimates of

gross domestic product (GDP) by state are measured in chained (2012) dollars.

Housing Price Index: A weighted, repeat-sales index, meaning that it measures average price changes in repeat sales

or refinancing on the same properties.

Labor Force Participation Rate: The labor force as a percent of the civilian noninstitutional population ages 16 years

and older.

Net Migration Rate: The U.S. Census Bureau defines the net migration rate as the difference between the number

of migrants entering and those leaving an area in a year, per 1,000 midyear population. May also be expressed in

percent. A positive figure is known as a net immigration rate and a negative figure as a net emigration rate.

Personal Consumption Expenditures by State: A measure of spending on goods and services purchased by, and on

behalf of, households based on households' state of residence divided by the resident population of the area.

Personal Income: Income that persons residing in the area receive in return for their provision of labor, land, and

capital used in current production as well as other income, such as personal current transfer receipts. Per capita

personal income: The personal income of a given area divided by the resident population of the area. Per capita

disposable personal income: The income available to persons for spending or saving (personal income less personal

current taxes) of a given area divided by the resident population of the area.

Poverty Level: The U.S. Census Bureau uses a set of money income thresholds that vary by family size and

composition to determine who is in poverty. If a family's total income is less than the family's threshold, then that

family and every individual in it is considered in poverty.

Real Trade Weighted Value of the Dollar: An index that calculates the inflation-adjusted value of the U.S. dollar

against the currencies of countries with which the state trades.

Total merchandise exports: Total exports are calculated by adding domestic exports (goods that are grown,

produced, or manufactured in the United States) to foreign exports (foreign-origin goods that have previously

entered the United States, Puerto Rico, or the U.S. Virgin Islands for consumption, entry into a CBP bonded

warehouse, or a U.S. Foreign Trade Zone (FTZ), and at the time of exportation, have undergone no change in form

or condition or enhancement in value by further manufacturing).

Maine Economic Indicators -January.docx

Total Private nonfarm employment: Each month Current Employment Statistics (CES) surveys a sample of about

2,700 nonfarm private employers (plus federal, state, and local government employers) in Maine asking them to

report the number of jobs, hours, and earnings of workers on their payroll during the week including the 12th day

of each month. The sample accounts for just 7% of employers, but 34% of nonfarm jobs in the state because a high

share of large employers are surveyed.

Unemployment Rate: Number of unemployed as a percent of the labor force. To be classified as unemployed,

persons must be aged 16 years and older with no employment during the reference week, were available for work,

except for temporary illness, and had made specific efforts to find employment sometime during the 4-week period

ending with the reference week.

Wages and Salaries: Remuneration receivable by employees (including corporate officers) from employers for the

provision of labor services, measured before deductions such as social security contributions, union dues, and

voluntary employee contributions to defined contribution pension plans.