Economic Indicators and Economic Monthly Overview March 2013

7/30/2019 Economic Indicators and Economic Monthly Overview March 2013

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| [Presentation title] | [Client Name] | [Date]1

Economic Indicators

Last update 15.04.2013


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| Economic Indicators |2

Economic Outlook Monthly Overview April 2013

Europe: Consensus April GDP forecast for WE remained unchanged on 0,0% for 2013 and on 1,2% for

2014. While the EU industrial confidence deteriorated somewhat compared to the previous month, the

consumer confidence indicator remained stable in March.

The IFO Business Climate index for Germany edged downwards in March. Companies

assessed their current business situation almost as positively as last month but were slightly

less optimistic about future business developments.

Activity likely slit deeper into recession in early 2013. Unemployment rate hit 12% in both,

January and February and joblessness is expected to mount. GDP likely contacted again in Q1

which would represent a sixth straight quarter of decline.

US: Consensus April GDP forecast for the US improved from 1,8% to 2,1% for 2013. Forecast for

2014 decreased slightly from 2,8% to 2,7%

The final Q4 2012 release showed a modest improvement in GDP of 0,4% q-o-q from the 0,1%

figure announced previously. Early indications for 2013 suggest that housing starts remain firm

after more than 4 years of deep retrenchment. This will hopefully help to support consumption.

Japan: The April GDP growth forecast for Japan improved from 1,2% to 1,3% for both, 2013 and 2014.

On April 4, the central bank surprised many by declaring its intent to double the monetary base

over a two-year period via the aggressive purchase of long-term bonds. Hope is that price

increases will pick up and boost the struggling economy.


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3 | Economic Indicators |

Eurostat Data


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Economic Indicators GDP EU 27

Source: Eurostat Mar 13

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

34

0

6Q1

'0

7Q1

'08Q1

'09Q1

'10Q1

'11Q1

12Q1

GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter vs same quarter of last year


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Economic Indicators GDP EU 27


-2,5

-2

-1,5-1

-0,5

0

0,5

1

'0

6Q1

'0

7Q1

'08

Q1

'09

Q1

'10

Q1

'11

Q1

12

Q1

GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter


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Economic Indicators EU 27 Consumer Price Index


0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

44,5

0

8/1

0

9/1

1

0/1

1

1/1

1

2/1

1

3/1

2%

The harmonized index of consumer prices is the result of the collaboration

between Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes of the Member States.


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Economic Indicators ECB interest rate

Source: ECB, FED Apr 13

Mar 13; 1,7

Apr.13; 0,75

Apr.13; 0,25

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,01,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

Jan

08

July

08

Jan

09

Ju

l.

09

Jan

10

Ju

l.

10

Jan

11

July

11

Jan

12

Ju

l.

12

Jan

13

Ju

l.

13

ECB short-term rate

Eurozone inflation

FED rate


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Economic Indicators EU 27 Unemployment Rate

Source: Eurostat Apr 13

10,9

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Jan08

Jan09

Jan10

Jan11

Jan12

Jan13

Unemployment rate for EU 27 countries


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Economic Indicators Industrial Confidence Ind EU


-40-35-30-25-20-15-10-505

10

Jan

06

Jan

07

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Industrial confidence within EU 27 deteriorated slightly in March.

The Industrial Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the

questions on production expectations, order books and stocks.


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Economic Indicators Consumer Confidence Ind EU


Consumer Confidence within EU 27 remained stable in March.

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

Jan06

Jan07

Jan08

Jan09

Jan10

Jan11

Jan12

Jan13

The Consumer Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions

on the financial situation of households and general economic situation (past and future)

together with that on the advisability of making major purchases.


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Economic Indicators Capacity Utilizationin Manufacturing Industry in % - EU 27

Source: Eurostat Feb 13

60

65

70

75

80

85

04Q1

05Q1

06Q1

07Q1

08Q1

09Q1

10Q1

11Q1

12Q1

13Q1

%

The capacity utilization in manufacturing industry gives the level of capacity utilization

in percent, as assessed by managers in manufacturing industry.


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Ifo Data


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Economic Indicators IFO World Economic Climate

Source: IFO Feb 13

The Ifo World Economic climate improved considerably in Q1 2013

This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.


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Economic Indicators IFO WE Economic Climate

Source: IFO Feb 13

The economic climate for Western Europe improved in the 1st quarter 2013.

This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.


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Economic Indicators IFO NA Economic Climate

Source: IFO Feb 13This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.


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Economic Indicators GDP Forecast Euro Area

Source: IFO Jan 13


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Economic Indicators GDP Forecast Germany

Source: IFO Jan 13


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Economic Indicators Exchange rate $ vs

Source: IFO Mar 13


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Economic Indicators Ifo business situation and 6 month expectations

Source: IFO Apr 13

7580

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

Jan08

Jan09

Jan10

Jan11

Jan12

Jan13

8085

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

Jan08

Jan09

Jan10

Jan11

Jan12

Jan13

Business situation 6 months expectations

The IFO-Institut fr Wirtschaftsforschung business situation index shows the current evaluation of the

economic situation, while the 6 month expectations index shows the expectations of the companies for the next

6 months. Over 7000 companies are being interviewed.

After rising sharply last month, the Ifo Business Climate index for Germany edged downwards

in March. Companies were slightly less positive about their future business outlook than in

February, but assessed their current business situation almost as positive as last month. The

German economy remains on track in a challenging environment thanks to strong domesticdemand.


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Economic Indicators IFO Assessment of CurrentBusiness Situation

Source: IFO Apr 13

After rising sharply last month, the Ifo Business Climate index for Germany edged downwards

in March. Companies were slightly less positive about their future business outlook than in

February, but assessed their current business situation almost as positive as last month. The

German economy remains on track in a challenging environment thanks to strong domestic

demand.


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Economic Indicators IFO business climate indexprinting industry

Source: IFO Apr 13, bundesverband druck und medien

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Ja

n08

Ja

n09

Ja

n10

Ja

n11

Ja

n12

Ja

n13

Ja

n14

The IFO-Institut fr Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is

based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.

The business climate within the printing industry declined slightly from -2 to -5.


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Economic Indicators IFO business climate indexprinting industry

The IFO-Institut fr Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is

based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.

Business Development at German Printers

March 2013:

The assessment of the current business situation in the printing

industry improved slightly from last month (+5%) and is positive now for

the 7th month in a row.

The business climate an indicator for the development inthe next quarter declined slightly from -2% to -5%.

The business expectations for the coming 6 months remained

negative for the 7th month in succession, and declined from -6%

to now -15%. In the same month of last year expectations were

considerably better than today (+5%).

Source: IFO Apr 13, bundesverband druck und medien


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Zenith Data


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Advertising Growth Zenith 12/12 Press release

Source: Zenith 12/12

Global ad expenditure forecast to strengthen over the next three years,rising from 3,3 % in 2012 to 4,1% in 2013 and 5,6% in 2015

Peripheral Eurozone to shrink 4,0% in 2013, stabilize in 2014 and grow

2% in 2015

Developing markets to contribute 61% of adspend growth between2012 and 2015 and increase their share of global adspend from 34% to

37%

Online video and social media to help drive 20% annual growth in

internet display over the next three years

Internet advertising to exceed combined newspaper and magazine total

in 2015


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At current prices


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Economic Indicators and Economic Monthly Overview March 2013

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