Daily i-forex-report-1 by epic research 24 may 2013
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DAILY I FOREX REPORT 24 th MAY 2013 WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO +91 7316642300
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Transcript of Daily i-forex-report-1 by epic research 24 may 2013
WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO +91 7316642300
USD/JPY Takes Biggest Plunge in Three Years After Nikkei Bubble Bursts
Yen To Extend Gains As US Data Underpins QE3 Reduction Bets
After touching its highest level in four and a half years, the USDJPY staged a massive overnight reversal, falling from a high of ¥103.73 on Wednesday to as low as 100.82 in early European trading hours today. In a sell-off that is being credited to the weak Chinese private sector manufacturing report, the Nikkei 225 plunged -7.32%, the single largest drop since October 2008 – the beginning of the end for global equities. However, Japanese Economic Minister Akira Amari said that is normal for equity losses to boost the domestic currency, and that the stock bubble hadn’t yet popped (I think a decline of this magnitude in one session is a mini-bubble bursting); thus Yen losses should be insulated.
Despite the single greatest drop in three years for the USDJPY, the US Dollar overall remains resilient, with the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) retaining some of yesterday’s gains, while holding its ground against the commodity currencies. A lot has been said about the scope of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s comments yesterday – that QE3 would remain in place until data improved, and if it did, then the scale of asset purchase could decline – but to me, it’s more of the same.
TRADING TIPS
BUY EURUSD ABOVE
1.2905 TGT 1.2925/1.2945
SL 1.2875
SELL USDJPY BELOW
100.80 TGT 100.60/100.40
SL 101.10
SELL GBPUSD BELOW
1.5010 TGT 1.4990/1.4970
SL 1.5140
HEADLINES
HOURLY EURUSD CHART
HOURLY EURUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.2842 EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD
HIGH: 1.2904 TREND: BULLISH
LOW: 1.2821 STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
CLOSE: 1.2888 MACD =>-.0004(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 57(BULLISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY USDJPY CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 103.18 USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARD
HIGH: 103.57 TREND: BEARISH
LOW: 100.83 STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
CLOSE: 101.32 MACD =>.04(BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 35(BEARISH SIGNAL)
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HOURLY GBPUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.5034 GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD
HIGH: 1.5082 TREND: BEARISH
LOW: 1.5014 STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
CLOSE: 1.5078 MACD =>-.00013(BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 31(BEARISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY EURGBP CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 00.8541 EURGBP LOOKS UPWARD
HIGH: 00.8562 TREND: BULLISH
LOW: 00.8532 STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
CLOSE: 00.8548 MACD =>.00005(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 58(BULLISH SIGNAL)
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HOURLY USD INDEX CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 84.3660 USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARD
HIGH: 84.4980 TREND: BULLISH
LOW: 83.7890 STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
CLOSE: 83.9160 MACD =>.0291(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 45(BULLISH SIGNAL)
Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes
Sun May 19
22:30
NZD Performance Services Index (APR)
Medium 56.1
55.6
23:01
GBP Rightmove House Prices (MoM) (MAY)
Low 2.1%
2.1%
23:01
GBP Rightmove House Prices (YoY) (MAY)
Low 2.5%
0.4%
Mon May 20
JPY Cabinet Office Monthly Economic Report for May
Medium
04:00
JPY Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (APR)
Low -2.8%
48.4%
05:00
JPY Coincident Index (MAR F)
Low 93.8
93.3
05:00
JPY Leading Index (MAR F)
Medium 97.9
97.6
05:30
JPY Nationwide Department Store Sales (YoY) (APR)
Low -0.5%
3.9%
05:30
JPY Tokyo Department Store Sales (YoY) (APR)
Low 2.1%
6.4%
06:00
JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (APR F)
Medium -23.6%
-24.1%
07:00
JPY Convenience Store Sales (YoY) (APR)
Low -2.6%
-0.4%
12:30
USD Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (APR)
Medium -0.53
-0.23
17:00
USD Fed's Evans Speaks on Economy in Chicago
Low
Tue May 21
00:00
AUD Conference Board Leading Index (MAR)
Medium 0.1%
0.3%
01:30
AUD RBA Policy Meeting - May Minutes
High
03:00
NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand 2-Year Inflation Expectation (2Q)
Medium 2.06%
2.17%
03:00
NZD Credit Card Spending s.a. (MoM) (APR)
Medium 0.4%
-0.3%
03:00
NZD Credit Card Spending (YoY) (APR)
Medium 4.0%
3.6%
ECONOMIC CALLENDER
04:30
JPY All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (MAR)
Medium
-0.4% 0.6%
05:00
JPY Supermarket Sales (YoY) (APR)
Low
1.7%
06:00
EUR German Producer Prices (MoM) (APR)
Low
-0.1% -0.2%
06:00
EUR German Producer Prices (YoY) (APR)
Low
0.1% 0.4%
07:00
CHF Money Supply M3 (YoY) (APR)
Low
9.9%
08:30
GBP Producer Price Index Input n.s.a. (MoM) (APR)
Low
-1.3% -0.1%
08:30
GBP Producer Price Index Input n.s.a. (YoY) (APR)
Low
0.3% 0.4%
08:30
GBP Producer Price Index Output n.s.a. (MoM) (APR)
Low
0.2% 0.3%
08:30
GBP Producer Price Index Output n.s.a. (YoY) (APR)
Medium
1.4% 2.0%
08:30
GBP Producer Price Index Output Core n.s.a. (MoM) (APR)
Low
0.3% 0.1%
08:30
GBP Producer Price Index Output Core n.s.a. (YoY) (APR)
Medium
0.9% 1.3%
08:30
GBP DCLG UK House Prices (YoY) (MAR)
Low
2.0% 1.9%
08:30
GBP Consumer Price Index (MoM) (APR)
Medium
0.4% 0.3%
08:30
GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR)
High
2.6% 2.8%
08:30
GBP Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR)
High
2.3% 2.4%
08:30
GBP Retail Price Index (APR)
Low
249.9 248.7
08:30
GBP Retail Price Index (MoM) (APR)
Low
0.5% 0.4%
08:30
GBP Retail Price Index (YoY) (APR)
Low
3.1% 3.3%
08:30
GBP Retail Price Index Ex Mort Int.Payments (YoY) (APR)
Low
3.0% 3.2%
15:30
USD Fed's Bullard Speaks on Monetary Policy in Frankfurt
Low
17:00
USD Fed's Dudley Speaks in New York
Low
22:45
NZD Net Migration s.a. (APR)
Low
1220
23:50
JPY Merchandise Trade Balance Total (Yen) (APR)
Medium
-¥637.3B -¥362.4B
23:50
JPY Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance (Yen) (APR)
Low
-¥605.8B -¥922.0B
23:50
JPY Merchandise Trade Exports (YoY) (APR)
Low
5.5 1.1
Wed May 22
JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision (MAY 22)
High
0.10% 0.10%
JPY BOJ Kuroda Press Conference After Policy Meeting
High
00:30
AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence (MAY)
Medium
-5.1%
00:30
AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (MAY)
Low
104.9
01:00
AUD DEWR Internet Skilled Vacancies (MoM) (APR)
Low
0.1%
04:00
JPY Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement
Medium
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone Current Account s.a. (euros) (MAR)
Low
16.3B
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone Current Account n.s.a. (euros) (MAR)
Low
12.1B
08:30
GBP Bank of England Minutes
High
08:30
GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (APR)
Low
0.1% -0.8%
08:30
GBP Retail Sales (YoY) (APR)
Medium
1.8% 0.4%
08:30
GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (MoM) (APR)
Low
0.1% -0.7%
08:30
GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (YoY) (APR)
Medium
2.0% -0.5%
08:30
GBP Public Finances (PSNCR) (Pounds) (APR)
Medium
-4.0B 31.3B
08:30
GBP PSNB ex Interventions (APR)
Medium
8.5B 15.1B
08:30
GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (Pounds) (APR)
Medium
8.8B 16.7B
10:00
GBP CBI Trends Total Orders (MAY)
Low
-17 -25
10:00
GBP CBI Trends Selling Prices (MAY)
Low
5 8
11:00
USD MBA Mortgage Applications (MAY 17)
Low
-7.3%
12:30
CAD Retail Sales (MoM) (MAR)
Medium
0.2% 0.8%
12:30
CAD Retail Sales Less Autos (MoM) (MAR)
Low
0.2% 0.7%
14:00
USD Fed's Bernanke Testifies on Economic Outlook
High
14:00
USD Existing Home Sales (APR)
Low
4.99M 4.92M
14:00
USD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (APR)
Medium
1.3% -0.6%
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAY 17)
Low
-624K
14:30
USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (MAY 17)
Low
575K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAY 17)
Low
2588K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAY 17)
Low
2300K
18:00
USD Fed Releases Minutes from Apr 30 - May 1 FOMC Meeting
High
23:50
JPY Merchandise Trade Imports (YoY) (APR)
Low
6.9 5.5
23:50
JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (MAY 17)
Medium
¥186.4B
23:50
JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (MAY 17)
Medium
¥19.2B
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (MAY 17)
Low
-¥413.5B
Thu May 23
01:00
AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation (MAY)
Medium
2.20%
01:45
LIVE
CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (MAY)
Medium
50.4 50.4
05:00
JPY Bank of Japan's Monthly Economic Report for May (Table)
Medium
07:00
EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAY P)
Low
44.8 44.4
07:00
EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAY P)
Low
44.5 44.3
07:30
EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAY A)
Medium
48.5 48.1
07:30
EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAY A)
Medium
50.0 49.6
08:00
LIVE
EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAY A)
Medium
47.0 46.7
08:00
LIVE
EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAY A)
Medium
47.2 47.0
08:00
LIVE
EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (MAY A)
Medium
47.2 46.9
08:30
GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q P)
High
0.3% 0.3%
08:30
GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (1Q P)
High
0.6% 0.6%
08:30
GBP Private Consumption (1Q P)
Low
0.3% 0.4%
08:30
GBP Government Spending (1Q P)
Low
0.2% 0.6%
08:30
GBP Gross Fixed Capital Formation (1Q P)
Low
0.3% -0.2%
08:30
GBP Exports (1Q P) Low
-1.0% -1.6%
08:30
GBP Imports (1Q P) Low
-0.9% -1.0%
08:30
GBP Total Business Investment (QoQ) (1Q P)
Low
-0.8%
08:30
GBP Total Business Investment (YoY) (1Q P)
Medium
0.8%
08:30
GBP Index of Services (MoM) (MAR)
Low
0.1% 0.8%
08:30
GBP Index of Services (3Mo3M) (MAR)
Low
0.6% 0.1%
10:05
USD Fed's Bullard to Speak on Monetary Policy in London
Low
12:30
USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAY 18)
Medium
346K 360K
12:30
USD Continuing Claims (MAY 17)
Low
3000K 3009K
12:58
USD Markit US PMI Preliminary (MAY)
Medium
52
13:00
USD House Price Index (MoM) (MAR)
Medium
0.80% 0.70%
13:00
USD House Price Purchase Index (QoQ) (1Q)
Low
1.40%
14:00
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (MAY A)
Medium
-21.8 -22.3
14:00
USD New Home Sales (APR)
Low
425K 417K
14:00
USD New Home Sales (MoM) (APR)
Medium
1.90% 1.50%
14:30
USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (MAY 17)
Low
99
15:00
USD Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity (MAY)
Low
-5 -5
22:45
NZD Trade Balance (New Zealand dollars) (APR)
Medium
480M 718M
22:45
NZD Exports (New Zealand dollars) (APR)
Low
4.06B 4.42B
22:45
NZD Imports (New Zealand dollars) (APR)
Low
3.60B 3.70B
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (MAY 17)
Low
¥878.8B
Fri May 24
EUR German Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (1Q F)
Medium
0.1% 0.1%
01:35
CNY MNI May Flash Business Sentiment Indicator
Low
02:55
JPY Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda speech at Nikkei Conference
Low
04:00
USD Revisions: New Home Sales
Low
06:00
EUR German Gross Domestic Product w.d.a. (YoY) (1Q F)
High
-0.2% -0.2%
06:00
EUR German Gross Domestic Product n.s.a. (YoY) (1Q F)
High
-1.4% -1.4%
06:00
EUR German Domestic Demand (1Q)
Low
0.1% 0.2%
06:00
EUR German Exports (1Q)
Low
-0.6% -2.0%
06:00
EUR German Capital Investment (1Q)
Low
-0.7% -0.7%
06:00
EUR German Government Spending (1Q)
Low
0.3% 0.4%
06:00
EUR German Construction Investment (1Q)
Low
-1.2% -0.1%
06:00
EUR German Imports (1Q)
Low
-0.9% -0.6%
06:00
EUR German Private Consumption (1Q)
Low
0.3% 0.1%
06:00
EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (JUN) (JUN)
Medium
6.2 6.2
08:00
EUR German IFO - Business Climate (MAY)
Medium
104.4 104.4
08:00
EUR German IFO - Current Assessment (MAY)
Medium
107.2 107.2
08:00
EUR German IFO - Expectations (MAY)
Medium
101.6 101.6
08:30
GBP BBA Loans for House Purchase (APR)
Medium
32800 31227
12:30
LIVE
USD Durable Goods Orders (APR)
High
1.7% -5.7%
12:30
USD Durables Ex Transportation (APR)
Medium
0.5% -1.4%
12:30
USD Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (APR)
Low
0.5% 0.2%
12:30
USD Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (APR)
Low
0.3%
22:45
NZD Balance (YTD) (New Zealand dollars) (APR)
Medium
-380M -525M
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