DAILY I FOREX REPORT 1

ST

FEBRUARY 2013

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Forex News: Record Low German Unemployment Fails to Spark a Euro Rally

Forex Analysis: Sideways Trade Likely Before Friday NFP, ISM Data

Forex Analysis: US Dollar Selling Pauses As S&P 500 Warns Of Weakness

Forex News: Record Low German Unemployment Fails to Spark a Euro Rally

German unemployment in January fell by the most in

twelve months, and the unemployment rate fell back

to the lowest point since Germany joined the Euro.

16,000 German workers found employment in January,

which was better than expectations for unemployment

to rise by 8 thousand and even better than December’s

revised 2 thousand person drop in unemployment. The

unemployment rate fell to 6.8%, better than

expectations for the rate to remain at 6.9%.

TRADING TIPS

BUY EURUSD ABOVE

1.3584 tgs

1.3599/1.3614 sl

1.3570

BUY USDJPY BELOW

91.40 tgt

91.56/91.71 SL 91.20

SELL GBPUSD BELOW

1.5780 tgt

1.5760/1.5740 SL

1.5800

HEADLINES

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 1.3568

HIGH: 1.3584

LOW: 1.3544

CLOSE: 1.3550

EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS

MACD =>. 0005(BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 70(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 90.78

HIGH: 91.41

LOW: 90.76

CLOSE: 91.01

USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS

MACD => 0001( BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>53(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 1.5797

HIGH: 1.5843

LOW: 1.5783

CLOSE: 1.5784

GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND: BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD => -.0005( BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 45(BEARISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 0.8589

HIGH: 0.8592

LOW: 0.8559

CLOSE: 0.8583

EURGBP LOOKS UPWARDS

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS

MACD =>.0022(BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>52(BULLISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY EURGBP CHART

HOURLY USDINDEX CHART

ECONOMIC CALENDER

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 79.2460

HIGH: 79.3370

LOW: 79.1700

CLOSE: 79.3360

USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

MACD =>-0.0125(BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>54(BULLISH SIGNAL)

Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes

Sun Jan 27

01:30

CNY Industrial Profits YTD (YoY) (DEC)

Medium 5.3%

3.0%

21:30

NZD Performance Services Index (DEC)

Low 51.5

54.2

23:50

JPY Corporate Service Price (YoY) (DEC)

Low -0.4% -0.5% -0.5%

Mon Jan 28

CNY Leading Index (DEC)

Medium

100.21

00:01

GBP Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) (JAN)

Low 0.0%

-0.1%

00:01

GBP Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) (JAN)

Low -0.3%

-0.3%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (3M) (DEC)

Low 3.7% 3.8% 3.4%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (YoY) (DEC)

Low 3.3% 3.9% 3.8%

13:30

USD Durable Goods Orders (DEC)

High

2.0% 0.8%

13:30

USD Durables Ex Transportation (DEC)

Medium

0.8% 1.6%

13:30

USD Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (DEC)

Low

-1.0% 2.6%

13:30

USD Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (DEC)

Low

0.5% 2.0%

15:00

USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (DEC)

Low

0.1% 1.7%

15:00

USD Pending Home Sales (YoY) (DEC)

Medium

12.5% 8.9%

15:30

USD Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (JAN)

Low

3.0 6.8

21:45

NZD Trade Balance

(New Zealand dollars) (DEC)

Medium

-105M -700M

21:45

NZD Balance (YTD) (New Zealand dollars) (DEC)

Medium

-1870B -1457B

21:45

NZD Exports (New Zealand dollars) (DEC)

Low

3.98B 3.81B

21:45

NZD Imports (New Zealand dollars) (DEC)

Low

4.13B 4.51B

23:00

AUD Conference Board Leading Index (NOV)

Medium

0.2%

Tue

Jan 29 00:30

AUD NAB Business

Conditions (DEC) Low

-5

00:30

AUD NAB Business Confidence (DEC)

Medium

-9

05:00

JPY Small Business Confidence (JAN)

Medium

43.8

07:00

EUR German Import Price Index (MoM) (DEC)

Low

-0.1% 0.0%

07:00

EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (FEB)

Medium

5.7 5.6

07:00

EUR German Import Price Index (YoY) (DEC)

Low

0.9% 1.1%

14:00

USD S&P/CS 20 City (MoM) s.a. (NOV)

Low

0.7% 0.7%

14:00

USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (YoY) (NOV)

Low

5.6% 4.3%

14:00

USD S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (NOV)

Low

146.08

15:00

USD Consumer Confidence (JAN)

High

64 65.1

21:45

NZD Building Permits (MoM) (DEC)

Low

6.0% -5.4%

23:50

JPY Retail Trade s.a. (MoM) (DEC)

Low

0.4% 0.0%

23:50

JPY Retail Trade (YoY) (DEC)

Medium

0.3% 1.3%

23:50

JPY Large Retailers' Sales (DEC)

Medium

-1.0% 0.9%

Wed

Jan 30 00:00

AUD DEWR Internet Skilled Vacancies (MoM) (DEC)

Low

-3.5%

07:00

CHF UBS Consumption Indicator (DEC)

Medium

1.23

08:00

CHF KOF Swiss Leading Indicator (JAN)

Medium

1.2 1.28

09:30

GBP Net Consumer Credit (DEC)

Medium

0.2B 0.1B

09:30

GBP Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (DEC)

Medium

0.6B -0.2B

09:30

GBP Mortgage Approvals (DEC)

Medium

54.5K 54.0K

09:30

GBP M4 Money Supply

(MoM) (DEC) Low

-0.2%

09:30

GBP M4 Money Supply (YoY) (DEC)

Low

-2.8%

09:30

GBP M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (DEC)

Low

4.3%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Economic Confidence (JAN)

Low

88.2 87

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Business Climate

Low

-1 -1.12

Indicator (JAN)

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Confidence (JAN)

Low

-13.5 -14.4

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (JAN F)

Medium

-23.9 -23.9

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Services Confidence (JAN)

Low

-9 -9.8

12:00

USD MBA Mortgage Applications (JAN 25)

Low

7.0%

13:15

USD ADP Employment Change (JAN)

Medium

163K 215K

13:30

USD Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (4Q A)

High

1.2% 3.1%

13:30

USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index (4Q A)

High

1.5% 2.7%

13:30

USD Core Personal

Consumption Expenditure (QoQ) (4Q A)

Medium

1.0% 1.1%

13:30

USD Personal Consumption (4Q A)

Medium

1.8% 1.6%

15:30

USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (JAN

25)

Low

2813K

15:30

USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (JAN 25)

Low

-471K

15:30

USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (JAN 25)

Low

-1738K

15:30

USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (JAN 25)

Low

508K

19:15

USD Federal Open Market Committee Rate Decision (JAN 30)

High

0.25%

20:00

NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision (JAN 31)

High

2.50% 2.50%

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (JAN 25)

Low

-¥35.2B

23:50

JPY Japan Buying

Foreign Stocks (Yen) (JAN 25)

Low

-¥235.3B

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (JAN 25)

Low

¥485.7B

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (JAN 25)

Low

¥196.2B

23:50

JPY Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (DEC)

Low

0.4%

23:50

JPY Industrial Production (MoM)

(DEC P)

Low

4.1% -1.4%

23:50

JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (DEC P)

Medium

-5.6% -5.5%

Thu Jan 31

00:00

AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (DEC)

Medium

4.7%

JPY Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Yamaguchi Speaks

Medium

00:01

GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (JAN)

Medium

-28 -29

00:30

AUD Private Sector Credit (MoM) (DEC)

Low

0.2% 0.0%

00:30

AUD Private Sector Credit (YoY) (DEC)

Medium

3.4% 3.5%

00:30

AUD Export Price Index (QoQ) (4Q)

Low

-1.5% -6.4%

00:30

AUD Import Price Index (QoQ) (4Q)

Low

0.4% -2.4%

01:30

JPY Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (DEC)

Medium

-1.1%

02:00

NZD Money Supply M3 (YoY) (DEC)

Low

5.0%

04:00

JPY Vehicle Production (YoY) (DEC)

Low

-8.4%

05:00

JPY Housing Starts (YoY) (DEC)

Medium

13.5% 10.3%

05:00

JPY Annualized

Housing Starts (DEC) Medium

0.895M 0.907M

05:00

JPY Construction Orders (YoY) (DEC)

Low

-2.1%

07:00

GBP Nationwide House Prices s.a. (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.2% -0.1%

07:00

GBP Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

-0.5% -1.0%

07:00

EUR German Retail Sales (MoM) (DEC)

Low

-0.1% 1.2%

07:00

EUR German Retail

Sales (YoY) (DEC) Medium

-1.3% -0.9%

08:55

EUR German Unemployment Change (JAN)

High

8K 3K

08:55

EUR German Unemployment Rate s.a. (JAN)

Medium

6.9% 6.9%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

2.2%

12:30

USD Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (JAN)

Low

-22.1%

13:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JAN P)

Medium

-0.5% 0.9%

13:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JAN P)

High

2.0% 2.1%

13:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (MoM) (JAN P)

Medium

-0.5% 0.9%

13:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (YoY) (JAN P)

High

2.0% 2.0%

13:30

CAD Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (NOV)

Medium

0.2% 0.1%

13:30

CAD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (NOV)

High

1.1%

13:30

USD Employment Cost Index (4Q)

Low

0.5% 0.4%

13:30

USD Personal Income (DEC)

Medium

0.8% 0.6%

13:30

USD Personal Spending (DEC)

Medium

0.3% 0.4%

13:30

USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (MoM) (DEC)

Low

0.0% -0.2%

13:30

USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (YoY) (DEC)

Low

1.4% 1.4%

13:30

USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (MoM) (DEC)

Low

0.1% 0.0%

13:30

USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY) (DEC)

Low

1.5% 1.5%

13:30

USD Initial Jobless Claims (JAN 27)

Medium

355K 330K

13:30

USD Continuing Claims (JAN 20)

Low

3157K

13:30

CAD Industrial Product Price (MoM) (DEC)

Low

0.0% -0.3%

13:30

CAD Raw Materials Price Index (MoM) (DEC)

Low

0.8% -1.9%

14:00

USD NAPM-Milwaukee (JAN)

Low

14:45

USD Chicago Purchasing Manager (JAN)

Low

51 51.6

15:30

USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (JAN

25)

Low

-172

21:45

NZD Net Migration s.a. (DEC)

Low

590

22:30

AUD AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (JAN)

Medium

44.3

23:00

AUD RPData-Rismark House PX Actual (JAN)

Low

-0.30%

23:30

JPY Jobless Rate (DEC)

Medium

4.10% 4.1%

23:30

JPY Job-To-Applicant Ratio (DEC)

Low

0.8 0.8

23:30

JPY Household Spending (YoY) (DEC)

Medium

-0.2% 0.2%

Fri Feb 1

JPY Official Reserve Assets (JAN)

Low

$1268.1B

00:30

AUD Producer Price Index (QoQ) (4Q)

Medium

0.3% 0.6%

00:30

AUD Producer Price Index (YoY) (4Q)

Medium

1.2% 1.1%

01:00

CNY Manufacturing PMI (JAN)

Medium

51 50.6

01:45

CNY HSBC Manufacturing PMI (JAN)

Medium

52 51.5

05:00

JPY Vehicle Sales (YoY) (JAN)

Low

-3.4%

05:30

AUD RBA Commodity

Price Index (JAN) Low

89.2

05:30

AUD RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY) (JAN)

Low

-8.0%

08:30

CHF SVME-Purchasing Managers Index (JAN)

Medium

50.4 49.5

08:45

EUR Italian Purchasing

Manager Index Manufacturing (JAN)

Low

47.6 46.7

08:50

EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JAN F)

Low

42.9 42.9

08:55

EUR German

Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JAN F)

Medium

48.8 48.8

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JAN F)

Medium

47.5 47.5

09:00

EUR Italian Unemployment Rate s.a. (DEC P)

Low

11.3% 11.1%

09:30

GBP Purchasing Manager Index

Medium

51 51.4

Manufacturing (JAN)

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (DEC)

Medium

11.9% 11.8%

13:30

USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls (JAN)

High

155K 155K

13:30

USD Change in Private Payrolls (JAN)

Medium

162K 168K

13:30

USD Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (JAN)

Low

10K 25K

13:30

USD Unemployment Rate (JAN)

High

7.8% 7.8%

13:30

USD Average Hourly Earning (MoM) All Employees (JAN)

Medium

0.2% 0.3%

13:30

USD Average Hourly Earning (YoY) All Employees (JAN)

Medium

2.1% 2.1%

13:30

USD Average Weekly

Hours All Employees (JAN)

Low

34.5 34.5

13:30

USD Change in Household Employment (JAN)

Medium

28

13:30

USD Underemployment Rate (U6) (JAN)

Medium

14.4%

13:58

USD Markit US PMI Final (JAN)

Low

14:55

USD U. of Michigan Confidence (JAN F)

Medium

71.3 71.3

15:00

USD Construction

Spending (MoM) (DEC) Medium

0.5% -0.3%

15:00

USD ISM Manufacturing (JAN)

High

50.5 50.7

15:00

USD ISM Prices Paid (JAN)

Medium

56 55.5

22:00

USD Domestic Vehicle Sales (JAN)

Low

12.00M 11.97M

22:00

USD Total Vehicle Sales (JAN)

Low

15.20M 15.30M

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