DAILY I FOREX REPORT

17th

MAY 2013

WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO +91 7316642300

WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO +91 7316642300

US Dollar Rally Unfazed by a Japan GDP Beat

Overnight Euro Libor at 0.024%, overnight Sterling Libor at 0.483%, according to BBA.

Three Year Inflation Low Fails to Move Euro

The Euro-zone inflation rate was confirmed at a three year low in April, according to a final estimate by Eurostat. The consumer price index was reported at 1.2% higher than April 2012, unchanged from a previous estimate and down from 1.7% inflation rate in March. Euro-zone consumer prices fell 0.1% in March on a monthly basis.

The Euro-zone trade balance was reported at a record high 18.7 billion Euros in March (seasonally adjusted), beating expectations for 11.5 billion Euros and up from a revised 12.7 billion Euros in February.

The Euro-zone inflation rate is well below the ECB’s 2% inflation target, and therefore allows the central bank to remain accommodative. The ECB cut the interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.50% in the May meeting. Therefore, a lower than expected inflation rate may be Euro negative.

TRADING TIPS

SELL EURUSD BELOW

1.2870 TGT 1.2850/1.2830

SL 1.2900

BUY USDJPY ABOVE 102.60

TGT 102.80/103.00 SL

102.30

SELL GBPUSD BELOW

1.5230 TGT 1.5210/1.5190

SL 1.5260

HEADLINES

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 1.2872 EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD

HIGH: 1.2878 TREND: BEARISH

LOW: 1.2872 STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

CLOSE: 1.2873 MACD =>-.0010(BEARISHSIGNAL)

RSI => 41(BEARISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 102.58 USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD

HIGH: 102.59 TREND: BULLISH

LOW: 102.53 STRATEGY: BUY ON DIP

CLOSE: 102.54 MACD =>.07(BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 63(BULLISHSIGNAL)

www.epicresearch.co + 91 7316642300

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 1.5229 GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD

HIGH: 1.5234 TREND: BEARISH

LOW: 1.5226 STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

CLOSE: 1.5226 MACD =>-.0005(BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 43.0383(BEARISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 00.8452 EURGBP LOOKS UPWARD

HIGH: 00.8454 TREND: BULLISH

LOW: 00.8451 STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

CLOSE: 00.8453 MACD =>-.0004(BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 48.5521(BULLISH SIGNAL)

www.epicresearch.co + 91 7316642300

HOURLY USD INDEX CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 83.9350 USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARD

HIGH: 83.9390 TREND: BULLISH

LOW: 83.9390 STRATEGY: BUY ON DIP

CLOSE: 83.8880 MACD =>-.0440(BULLISHSIGNAL)

RSI => 72.1996(BULLISH SIGNAL)

Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous

Sun

May 12 22:14

NZD REINZ House Sales (YoY) (APR)

Medium 25.2%

10.9%

22:14

NZD REINZ Housing Price Index (APR)

Low 3661.5

3631.4

22:14

NZD REINZ Housing Price Index (MoM) (APR)

Low 0.8%

2.4%

22:45

NZD Food Prices (MoM) (APR)

Low 0.2%

-1.3%

23:50

JPY Japan Money Stock M2+CD (YoY) (APR)

Low 3.3 3.1% 3.1%

23:50

JPY Japan Money Stock M3 (YoY) (APR)

Low 2.6% 2.5% 2.5%

Mon

May 13 01:30

AUD Home Loans (MAR)

Medium 5.2% 4.0% 2.1%

01:30

AUD NAB Business Confidence (APR)

Medium -2

2

01:30

AUD Investment Lending (MAR)

Low 2.1%

1.9%

01:30

AUD NAB Business Conditions (APR)

Low -6

-7

01:30

AUD RBA Credit Card Balances (MAR)

Low A$49.7B

A$50.0B

01:30

AUD RBA Credit Card Purchases (MAR)

Low A$20.2B

A$20.2B

01:30

AUD Value of Loans (MoM) (MAR)

Low 5.8%

1.2%

05:30

CNY Fixed Assets Inv Excl. Rural YTD (YoY) (APR)

Medium 20.6% 21.0% 20.9%

05:30

CNY Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (APR)

Medium 9.4% 9.5% 9.5%

05:30

CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (APR)

Medium 9.3% 9.4% 8.9%

05:30

CNY Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (APR)

Medium 12.5% 12.6% 12.4%

05:30

CNY Retail Sales (YoY) (APR)

Medium 12.8% 12.8% 12.6%

07:15

CHF Retail Sales (Real) (YoY) (MAR)

Medium -0.9%

2.4%

12:30

USD Advance Retail Sales (APR)

High

-0.3% -0.4%

ECONOMIC CALLENDER

12:30

USD Retail Sales Less Autos (APR)

Medium

-0.2% -0.4%

12:30

USD Retail Sales "Control Group" (APR)

Low

0.3% -0.2%

12:30

USD Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas (APR)

Low

0.3% -0.1%

13:00

EUR Euro Zone Finance Ministers Meet in Brussels

High

14:00

USD Business Inventories (MAR)

Medium

0.3% 0.1%

22:45

NZD Retail Sales Ex Inflation (QoQ) (1Q)

Medium

0.8% 2.1%

23:01

GBP RICS House Price Balance (APR)

Medium

2% -1%

23:50

JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (MoM) (APR)

Low

0.1% 0.1%

23:50

JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (YoY) (APR)

Low

-0.2% -0.5%

23:50

JPY Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (MAR)

Low

1.4%

Tue

May 14

CNY Actual FDI (YoY) (APR)

Medium

6.2% 5.7%

03:00

NZD Non Resident Bond Holdings (APR)

Low

68.3%

06:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (YoY) (APR F)

High

1.1% 1.1%

06:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR F)

High

1.2% 1.2%

06:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (MoM) (APR F)

Medium

-0.5% -0.5%

06:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (APR F)

Medium

-0.5% -0.5%

06:00

JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (APR P)

Medium

-21.5%

06:00

EUR German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (APR)

Low

-0.2%

06:00

EUR German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (APR)

Low

0.3%

06:00

USD Fed's Plosser Speaks on Monetary Policy in Stockholm

Low

08:30

EUR Italian General Government Debt (MAR)

Medium

2017.6B

09:00

EUR German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (MAY)

High

40 36.3

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (MAR)

Medium

-2.1% -3.1%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (MAY)

Medium

24.9

09:00

EUR German ZEW Survey (Current Situation) (MAY)

Medium

9.8 9.2

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (MAR)

Low

0.5% 0.4%

11:30

USD NFIB Small Business Optimism (APR)

Low

89.8 89.5

12:30

USD Import Price Index (MoM) (APR)

Low

-0.5% -0.5%

12:30

USD Import Price Index (YoY) (APR)

Low

-2.7%

13:00

CAD Teranet/National Bank HPI (MoM) (APR)

Low

0.4%

13:00

CAD Teranet/National Bank HPI (YoY) (APR)

Low

2.6%

13:00

CAD Teranet/National Bank HP Index (APR)

Low

153.31

15:00

USD New York Fed Releases Quarterly Household Debt Report

Medium

23:50

JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (MAR)

Medium

-0.7% 1.1%

Wed

May 15 01:30

AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (APR)

Low

-0.6%

01:30

AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) (APR)

Low

4.5%

01:30

AUD Wage Cost Index (QoQ) (1Q)

Low

0.8% 0.8%

01:30

AUD Wage Cost Index (YoY) (1Q)

Low

3.3% 3.4%

05:00

JPY Consumer Confidence (APR)

Medium

45.5 44.8

05:30

EUR French Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (1Q P)

Medium

-0.4% -0.3%

05:30

EUR French Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q P)

Low

-0.1% -0.3%

06:00

EUR German Gross Domestic Product n.s.a. (YoY) (1Q P)

High

0.2% 0.1%

06:00

EUR German Gross Domestic Product w.d.a. (YoY) (1Q P)

High

0.2% 0.4%

06:00

EUR German Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (1Q P)

Medium

0.3% -0.6%

07:15

CHF Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (APR)

Low

-0.2% 0.0%

07:15

CHF Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (APR)

Low

-0.3% -0.3%

08:00

EUR Italian Gross Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (1Q P)

Medium

-2.3% -2.8%

08:00

EUR Italian Gross Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a. (QoQ) (1Q P)

Low

-0.4% -0.9%

08:30

GBP Jobless Claims Change (APR)

High

-3.0K -7.0K

08:30

GBP Average Weekly Earnings (3M/YoY) (MAR)

Medium

0.7% 0.8%

08:30

GBP Claimant Count Rate (APR)

Medium

4.6% 4.6%

08:30

GBP Employment Change (3M/3M) (MAR)

Medium

-20K -2K

08:30

GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (MAR)

Medium

7.9% 7.9%

08:30

GBP Weekly Earnings exBonus (3M/YoY) (MAR)

Low

0.8% 1.0%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (1Q A)

High

-0.9% -0.9%

09:00

CHF ZEW Survey (Expectations) (MAY)

Medium

20

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (1Q A)

Medium

-0.1% -0.6%

09:30

GBP Bank of England Inflation Report

High

11:00

USD MBA Mortgage Applications (MAY 10)

Low

7.0%

12:30

USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (APR)

Medium

1.7% 1.7%

12:30

USD Producer Price Index (YoY) (APR)

Medium

0.8% 1.1%

12:30

CAD Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) (MAR)

Low

0.5% 2.6%

12:30

USD Empire Manufacturing (MAY)

Low

4 3.05

12:30

USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (APR)

Low

0.1% 0.2%

12:30

USD Producer Price Index (MoM) (APR)

Low

-0.6% -0.6%

13:00

CAD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (APR)

Medium

2.40%

13:00

USD Net Long-term TIC Flows (MAR)

Medium

-$17.8B

13:00

USD Total Net TIC Flows (MAR)

Low

$53.6B

13:15

USD Industrial Production (APR)

Medium

-0.1% 0.4%

13:15

USD Manufacturing (SIC) Production (APR)

Medium

0.0% -0.1%

13:15

USD Capacity Utilization (APR)

Low

78.3% 78.5%

14:00

USD NAHB Housing Market Index (MAY)

Low

43 42

14:30

USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (MAY 10)

Low

-652K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAY 10)

Low

230K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAY 10)

Low

1812K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAY 10)

Low

-910K

22:30

NZD Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (APR)

Medium

53.4

23:50

JPY Gross Domestic Product Annualized (1Q P)

High

2.7% 0.2%

23:50

JPY Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q P)

High

0.7% 0.0%

23:50

JPY Nominal Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q P)

High

0.5% -0.3%

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (MAY 10)

Low

¥267.0B

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (MAY 10)

Low

-¥26.2B

23:50

JPY Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY) (1Q P)

Low

-0.9% -0.7%

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (MAY 10)

Low

¥309.9B

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (MAY 10)

Low

¥28.0B

Thu

May 16 01:30

AUD RBA FX Transactions "Other" (APR)

Low

71M

01:30

AUD RBA Foreign Exchange Transaction (Australian dollar) (APR)

Low

577M

03:30

AUD RBA FX Transactions "Government" (APR)

Low

04:00

JPY Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (APR)

Low

48.4%

04:30

JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (MAR F)

Medium

-7.3%

04:30

JPY Capacity Utilization (MoM) (MAR F)

Low

0.7%

04:30

JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (MAR F)

Low

0.2%

07:45

USD Fed's Plosser Speaks on Monetary Policy in Milan

Low

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) (APR F)

High

1.0% 1.0%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR F)

High

1.2% 1.2%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (MoM) (APR)

Medium

-0.1% 1.2%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Trade Balance (euros) (MAR)

Low

10.4B

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Trade Balance s.a. (euros) (MAR)

Low

12.0B 12.0B

11:45

USD Fed's Rosengren Speaks in Milan

Low

12:30

USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (APR)

High

1.8% 1.9%

12:30

USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR)

High

1.3% 1.5%

12:30

USD Building Permits (MoM) (APR)

Medium

3.6% -3.9%

12:30

USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (APR)

Medium

0.2% 0.1%

12:30

USD Consumer Price Index (MoM) (APR)

Medium

-0.3% -0.2%

12:30

USD Housing Starts (MoM) (APR)

Medium

-5.4% 7.0%

12:30

USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAY 11)

Medium

330K 323K

12:30

CAD International Securities Transactions (Canadian dollar) (MAR)

Low

-6.31B

12:30

USD Building Permits (APR)

Low

940K 902K

12:30

USD Consumer Price Index Core Index s.a. (APR)

Low

232.758

12:30

USD Consumer Price Index n.s.a. (APR)

Low

232.7 232.773

12:30

USD Continuing Claims (MAY 4)

Low

3003K 3005K

12:30

USD Housing Starts (APR)

Low

980K 1036K

13:00

USD Fed's Fisher Speaks at NABE Industry Conference in Houston

Low

14:00

USD Philadelphia Fed. (MAY)

Medium

2.3 1.3

14:30

USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (MAY 10)

Low

88

19:05

USD Fed's Williams Speaks on Monetary Policy in Oregon

Low

22:00

NZD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (APR)

Low

0.7%

22:45

NZD Producer Prices- Inputs (QoQ) (1Q)

Low

0.2% -0.3%

22:45

NZD Producer Prices- Outputs (QoQ) (1Q)

Low

0.0% -0.1%

23:50

JPY Machine Orders (YoY) (MAR)

Medium

-4.9% -11.3%

23:50

JPY Housing Loans (YoY) (1Q)

Low

3.1%

23:50

JPY Machine Orders (MoM) (MAR)

Low

3.3% 7.5%

Fri

May 17

USD Revisions: Housing Starts

Low

01:00

NZD ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (MAY)

Low

119.2

01:00

NZD ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (MAY)

Low

3.8%

01:30

CNY China April Property Prices

Medium

02:00

CNY Conference Board China April Leading Economic Index

Low

06:00

EUR EU 25 New Car Registrations (APR)

Low

-10.2%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Construction Output s.a. (MoM) (MAR)

Low

-0.8%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Construction Output w.d.a. (YoY) (MAR)

Low

0.8%

12:30

CAD Bank Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (APR)

High

1.2% 1.4%

12:30

CAD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR)

High

0.9% 1.0%

12:30

CAD Bank Canada Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) (APR)

Medium

0.2% 0.2%

12:30

CAD Consumer Price Index (MoM) (APR)

Medium

0.2% 0.2%

12:30

CAD Consumer Price Index (APR)

Low

122.9

12:30

CAD Consumer Price Index s.a. (MoM) (APR)

Low

0.1%

12:30

CAD Core CPI s.a. (MoM) (APR)

Low

0.2%

12:30

CAD Wholesale Sales (MoM) (MAR)

Low

0.4% 0.0%

13:55

USD U. of Michigan Confidence (MAY P)

Medium

77.6 76.4

14:00

USD Leading Indicators (APR)

Medium

0.2% -0.1%

14:00

USD Revisions to Factory Orders Report

Low

17:45

USD Fed's Kocherlakota, Riksbank's Ingves Speak in Chicago

Low

Sat

May 18 15:00

USD Fed's Bernanke Delivers Commencement Speech at Bard College

Low

Disclaimer

The information and views in this report, our website & all the service we provide are believed to be reliable, but we do not accept any responsibility (or liability) for errors of fact or opinion. Users have the right to choose the product/s that suits them the most.

Sincere efforts have been made to present the right investment perspective. The information contained herein is based on analysis and up on sources that we consider reliable.

This material is for personal information and based upon it & takes no responsibility

The information given herein should be treated as only factor, while making investment decision. The report does not provide individually tailor-made investment advice. Epic research recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. Epic research shall not be responsible for any transaction conducted based on the information given in this report, which is in violation of rules and regulations of NSE and BSE.

The share price projections shown are not necessarily indicative of future price performance. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change without notice. Analyst or any person related to epic research might be holding positions in the stocks recommended. It is understood that anyone who is browsing through the site has done so at his free will and does not read any views expressed as a recommendation for which either the site or its owners or anyone can be held responsible for . Any surfing and reading of the information is the acceptance of this disclaimer.

All Rights Reserved.

Investment in equity & bullion market has its own risks.

We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. we are not responsible for any loss incurred whatsoever for any financial profits or loss which may arise from the recommendations above epic research does not purport to be an invitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. Our Clients (Paid Or Unpaid), Any third party or anyone else have no rights to forward or share our calls or SMS or Report or Any Information Provided by us to/with anyone which is received directly or indirectly by them. If found so then Serious Legal Actions can be taken.

www.epicresearch.co + 91 7316642300