DAILY I FOREX REPORT 4

TH

APRIL 2013

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USD/JPY Breakout Stalls, Is the Same in Store for GBP/USD and Gold?

Disappointing UK PMI For Construction Briefly Drives Pound Lower

Euro Vulnerable On Soft Inflation Data Ahead Of ECB Rate Decision

Euro Runs Slightly Higher on an IMF Contribution to the Cyprus Bailout

The Euro received a boost at the end of an otherwise quiet European session, on the announcement that the IMF will contribute 1 billion Euros to the Cyprus bailout agreement. It is unclear if the pledge is an addition to the 10 billion Euro aid already agreed upon, or if the IMF will help contribute to that original amount. IMF Managing Director Lagarde said she will seek board approval for the aid in early May.

The Euro rose to 1.2835 against the US Dollar following the news, as the Euro had battled to stay above the 1.2800 line earlier in the session. The 1.2820 support line may continue to provide support from here, and the 200 day moving average may provide support at 1.2882.

Before the announcement, the Euro-zone annual inflation estimate was reported at a new 2.5 year low of 1.7%, following 1.8% inflation in February. The estimated inflation was slightly better than an expected 1.6% inflation level, and therefore did not have significant impact on Euro trading.

TRADING TIPS

BUY EURUSD ABOVE

1.2840 tgs

1.2860/1.2880 sl 1.2810

SELL USDJPY BELOW

93.30 tgt 93.10/92.90

SL 93.60

SELL GBPUSD BELOW

1.5075 Tgt

1.5055/1.5035 SL

1.5105

HEADLINES

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 1.2819

HIGH: 1.2838

LOW: 1.2790

CLOSE: 1.2820

EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD

TREND : BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

MACD =>-.0005(BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 48(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 93.34

HIGH: 93.69

LOW: 93.32

CLOSE: 93.50

USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND: BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD => -0.07( BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>53(BEARISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 1.5108

HIGH: 1.5121

LOW: 1.5075

CLOSE: 1.5109

GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND: BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD => .002( BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 43(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 0.8484

HIGH: 0.8495

LOW: 0.8469

CLOSE: 0.8484

EURGBP LOOKS UPWARDS

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS

MACD =>-.003(BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>53(BULLISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY EURGBP CHART

HOURLY USDINDEX CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 82.9010

HIGH: 82.0650

LOW: 82.8480

CLOSE: 82.9040

USDINDEX LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND: BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD =>0.22(BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>51(BEARISH SIGNAL)

Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes

Sun

Mar 31 23:50

JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Outlook (1Q)

High -1 1 -10

23:50

JPY Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook (1Q)

High 9 11 3

23:50

JPY Tankan Large All Industry Capex (1Q)

Medium -2.0% 5.0% 6.8%

23:50

JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (1Q)

Medium -8 -7 -12

23:50

JPY Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index (1Q)

Medium 6 8 4

23:50

JPY Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (FEB)

Low 1.42%

1.34%

Mon Apr 1

01:00

CNY Manufacturing PMI (MAR)

High 50.9 51.2 50.1

01:45

CNY HSBC Manufacturing PMI (MAR)

Medium 51.6 51.6 50.4

04:39

CNY Leading Index (FEB)

Low 100.23

100.50

05:00

JPY Vehicle Sales (YoY) (MAR)

Low -15.6%

-12.2%

12:58

USD Markit US PMI Final (MAR)

Low 54.6 55.0 54.9

14:00

USD ISM Manufacturing (MAR)

High 51.3 54.0 54.2

14:00

USD Construction Spending (MoM) (FEB)

Medium 1.2% 1.0% -2.1%

14:00

USD ISM Prices Paid (MAR)

Medium 54.5 60.0 61.5

22:30

AUD AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (MAR)

Medium 44.4

45.6

23:00

AUD RPData-Rismark House PX Actual (MAR)

Low 1.3%

0.3%

23:01

GBP Lloyds Business Barometer (MAR)

Low 20

13

23:50

JPY Monetary Base (YoY) (MAR)

Low 19.8%

15.0%

ECONOMIC CALENDER

Tue

Apr 2 00:00

NZD ANZ Commodity Price (MAR)

Low 7.4%

1.1%

01:30

JPY Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (FEB)

Medium -0.7% -0.2% 0.1%

03:30

AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision (APR 2)

High 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%

05:30

AUD RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY) (MAR)

Low -7.5%

-6.5%

05:30

AUD RBA Commodity Price Index (MAR)

Low 87.9

87.9

07:30

CHF SVME-Purchasing Managers Index (MAR)

Medium 48.3 50.4 50.8

07:45

EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAR)

Low 44.5 45.3 45.8

07:50

EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAR F)

Low 44.0 43.9 43.9

07:55

EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAR F)

Medium 49.0 48.9 48.9

08:00

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAR F)

Medium 46.8 46.6 46.6

08:00

EUR Italian Unemployment Rate s.a. (FEB P)

Medium 11.6% 11.8% 11.7%

08:30

GBP Mortgage Approvals (FEB)

Medium 51.7K 53.7K 54.2K

08:30

GBP Net Consumer Credit (FEB)

Medium 0.6B 0.4B 0.5B

08:30

GBP Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (FEB)

Medium 0.9B 0.4B 0.3B

08:30

GBP Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAR)

Medium 48.3 48.7 47.9

08:30

GBP M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (FEB)

Low 3.1% 5.0% 5.8%

08:30

GBP M4 Money Supply (MoM) (FEB)

Low -0.5%

0.9%

08:30

GBP M4 Money Supply (YoY) (FEB)

Low 0.5%

-0.8%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (FEB)

Medium 12.0% 12.0% 12.0%

10:00

EUR ECB's Kranjec Presents Slovenia Economy Outlook, Banks

Low

12:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (YoY)

High

1.7% 1.8%

(MAR P)

12:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAR P)

High

1.3% 1.5%

12:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (MoM) (MAR P)

Medium

0.3% 0.8%

12:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (MAR P)

Medium

0.4% 0.6%

13:45

USD ISM New York (MAR)

Low

58.8

14:00

USD Factory Orders (FEB)

Medium

2.9% -2.0%

14:00

USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (APR) (APR)

Low

45.5 42.2

15:20

EUR ECB's Coeure Speaks in Washington DC

Low

17:00

USD Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks on Monetary Policy in North Dakota

Low

17:30

USD Fed's Lockhart Speaks in Alabama

Low

21:00

USD Domestic Vehicle Sales (MAR)

Low

12.04M 11.99M

21:00

USD Total Vehicle Sales (MAR)

Low

15.30M 15.33M

23:01

GBP BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (MAR)

Low

1.10%

23:30

USD Fed's Evans, Lacker Speak on Monetary Policy in Richmond

Low

Wed

Apr 3 00:00

AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (FEB)

Medium

4.2%

GBP Halifax House Price (3MoY) (MAR)

Low

1.1% 1.9%

GBP Halifax Plc House Prices s.a. (MoM) (MAR)

Low

0.2% 0.5%

00:30

AUD Trade Balance (Australian dollar) (FEB)

Medium

-1000M -1057M

01:00

CNY Non-manufacturing PMI (MAR)

Medium

54.5

01:45

CNY HSBC Services PMI (MAR)

Medium

52.1

08:30

GBP Purchasing Manager Index Construction (MAR)

Medium

48.0 46.8

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (YoY) (MAR)

Medium

1.6% 1.8%

11:00

USD MBA Mortgage Applications (MAR 29)

Low

7.7%

12:15

USD ADP Employment Change (MAR)

Medium

200K 198K

14:00

USD ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite (MAR)

Medium

55.6 56

14:30

USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (MAR 29)

Low

439K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAR 29)

Low

2250K 3256K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAR 29)

Low

-750K -4513K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAR 29)

Low

-1000K -1596K

19:30

USD Fed's Williams Speaks on Monetary Policy in Los Angeles

Low

21:00

USD Fed's Bullard to Introduce Lecture in St. Louis

Low

22:30

AUD AiG Performance of Service Index (MAR)

Medium

48.5

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (MAR 29)

Low

-¥975.2B

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (MAR 29)

Low

-¥267.6B

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (MAR 29)

Low

-¥490.5B

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (MAR 29)

Low

-¥640.2B

Thu

Apr 4

JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision (APR 4)

High

0.10% 0.10%

00:30

AUD Building Approvals (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

14.3% 9.9%

00:30

AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (FEB)

Medium

0.3% 0.9%

00:30

AUD Building Approvals (MoM) (FEB)

Low

2.5% -2.4%

07:45

EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAR)

Low

43.5 43.6

07:50

EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAR F)

Low

41.9 41.9

07:55

EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAR F)

Medium

51.6 51.6

08:00

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (MAR F)

Medium

46.5 46.5

08:00

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAR F)

Medium

46.5 46.5

08:30

GBP Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAR)

Medium

51.5 51.8

08:30

GBP Official Reserves (Changes) (MAR)

Low

-$1333M

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

1.4% 1.9%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) (FEB)

Low

0.2% 0.6%

11:00

GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target (APR)

High

375B 375B

11:00

GBP Bank of England Rate Decision (APR 4)

High

0.50% 0.50%

11:30

USD Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (MAR)

Low

7.0%

11:30

USD RBC Consumer Outlook Index (APR)

Low

47.1

11:45

EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision (APR 4)

High

0.75% 0.75%

11:45

EUR ECB Deposit Facility Rate (APR 4)

Medium

0.00% 0.00%

12:30

USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 30)

Medium

353K 357K

12:30

USD Continuing Claims (MAR 23)

Low

3065K 3050K

12:45

USD Fed's Evans, Lockhart Speak on Monetary Policy in Ohio

Low

14:30

USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (MAR 29)

Low

-95

16:30

USD Fed's George Speaks on Economy in Oklahoma

Low

21:00

USD Fed's Yellen Speaks in Washington

Low

23:50

JPY Official Reserve Assets (MAR)

Low

$1258.8B

Fri

Apr 5

GBP New Car Registrations (YoY) (MAR)

Low

7.9%

05:00

JPY Bank of Japan's Monthly Economic Report for April (Table)

Medium

05:00

JPY Leading Index (FEB P)

Medium

97.3 95

05:00

JPY Coincident Index (FEB P)

Low

91.9 91.6

07:00

CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (MAR)

Low

427.0B 430.0B

08:00

EUR Italian Deficit to GDP (YTD) (4Q)

Medium

3.7%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (FEB)

High

-1.2% -1.3%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (FEB)

Medium

-0.4% 1.2%

10:00

EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

-1.5% -2.5%

10:00

EUR German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (FEB)

Low

1.1% -2.5%

12:30

CAD Net Change in Employment (MAR)

High

5.0K 50.7K

12:30

CAD Unemployment Rate (MAR)

High

7.0% 7.0%

12:30

USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls (MAR)

High

199K 236K

12:30

USD Unemployment Rate (MAR)

High

7.7% 7.7%

12:30

CAD Full Time Employment Change (MAR)

Medium

33.6

12:30

USD Average Hourly Earnings All Employees (MoM) (MAR)

Medium

0.2% 0.2%

12:30

USD Average Hourly Earnings All Employees (YoY) (MAR)

Medium

2.0% 2.1%

12:30

USD Change in Household Employment (MAR)

Medium

170

12:30

USD Change in Private Payrolls (MAR)

Medium

203K 246K

12:30

USD Trade Balance (FEB)

Medium

-$44.6B -$44.4B

12:30

USD Two-Month Payroll Net Revision (MAR)

Medium

-15K

12:30

USD Underemployment Rate (U6) (MAR)

Medium

14.3%

12:30

CAD International Merchandise Trade (Canadian dollar) (FEB)

Low

0.10B -0.24B

12:30

CAD Part Time Employment Change (MAR)

Low

17.2

12:30

CAD Participation Rate (MAR)

Low

66.7 66.7

12:30

USD Average Weekly Hours All Employees (MAR)

Low

34.5 34.5

12:30

USD Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (MAR)

Low

10K 14K

14:00

CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a (MAR)

Medium

52.2 51.1

19:00

USD Consumer Credit (FEB)

Medium

$15.000B $16.151B

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