CONSENSUS FORECAST - FocusEconomics · The government set a GDP target growth of between 6.0% and...

CONSENSUS FORECAST

CHINA 2CALENDAR 18NOTES 20

China • September 2019

Contributors

ARNE POHLMAN Chief Economist

RICARD TORNÉ Lead Economist

THOMAS FENGE Head of Data Solutions

ANGELA BOUZANIS Lead Economist

WILLIAM O’CONNELL Editor

JOSÉ DANIEL MARÍN Data Scientist

NICOLAS J. AGUILAR EconomistNIHAD AHMED EconomistMASSIMO BASSETTI Economist STEVEN BURKE EconomistJAVIER COLATO Economist

OLGA COSCODAN EconomistJAN LAMMERSEN EconomistLINDSEY ICE EconomistOLIVER REYNOLDS EconomistALMANAS STANAPEDIS Economist

JOAN ARGILAGÓS Junior Data AnalystSTÉPHANIE HOBEICHE Junior Data AnalystRICCARDO SACCHI Junior Data Analyst SARA VALVERDE Junior Data Analyst

EDWARD GARDNER EAST AND SOUTH ASIA ECONOMIST

PUBLICATION DATE 20 August 2019FORECASTS COLLECTED 13 August - 18 August 2019

INFORMATION AVAILABLE Up to and including 18 August 2019 NEXT EDITION 17 September 2019

FOCUSECONOMICS China

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 2

September 2019

China• Economic growth dipped to a 27-year low in the second quarter, and

the economy likely continues to falter in Q3 amid the trade war with the U.S. Throughout January–July, investment growth slowed, while, in July, industrial production expanded at a near two-decade low and retail sales growth moderated. Meanwhile, in mid-August, the U.S. postponed imposing a 10% tariff on some Chinese consumer products from 1 September to 15 December, which should aid exports ahead of the Christmas season. In the same month, the IMF applauded the government during an Article IV visit for strengthening financial regulations, continuing to open up the economy and tightening control over local government expenditure to reduce the speed of debt accumulation; however, the Fund also noted that further reforms regarding state-owned enterprises are needed in order to increase competition and improve credit allocation.

• Uncertainty linked to the trade war with the U.S. will continue to weigh on the economy, while weak global demand and domestic economic imbalances pose further risks to the outlook. Nevertheless, fiscal stimulus and accommodative monetary policy should buttress the economy and make the government’s 6.0–6.5% growth target for this year attainable. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy growing 6.2% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, before decelerating to 6.0% in 2020.

• Inflation accelerated to 2.8% in July from 2.7% in June, while producer prices fell 0.3% over a year ago. Looking ahead, consumer inflation is expected to rise this year from last year’s level due to a weaker yuan and higher pork prices as a result of the spread of African swine fever which has decimated China’s pig herd. FocusEconomics panelists forecast that inflation will average 2.4% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 2.3% in 2020.

• On 16 August, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced that the loan prime rate will be based on rates of open market operations. This move is expected to lower borrowing costs and deepen financial market reforms. The PBOC uses a complex system to implement monetary policy, including open market operations and reserve requirement ratios. Panelists project the one-year deposit and lending rates to close 2019 at 1.45% and 4.33%, respectively, and 2020 at 1.39% and 4.32%.

• In recent weeks, the yuan depreciated as trade tensions with the U.S. intensified and the PBOC adjusted the trading band. On 16 August, the yuan traded at 7.04 CNY per USD, a 2.4% month-on-month depreciation. Looking forward, skepticism about an early resolution of the trade dispute with the U.S. will continue to weigh on the yuan. Our panelists see the yuan ending 2019 at 6.97 CNY per USD and 2020 at 6.93 CNY per USD.

Outlook stable

LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages

Ricard TornéLead Economist

2015-17 2018-20 2021-23Population (million): 1,382 1,400 1,410GDP (USD bn): 11,391 14,340 18,230GDP per capita (USD): 8,238 10,242 12,926GDP growth (%): 6.8 6.3 5.6Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -3.7 -4.3 -4.1Public Debt (% of GDP): 16.1 18.2 21.6Inflation (%): 1.7 2.3 2.4Current Account (% of GDP): 2.1 0.3 0.1External Debt (% of GDP): 13.3 14.5 14.7

China

5.8

6.1

6.4

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7.0

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2019 2020

Change in GDP forecasts

GDP, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Economic Growth

GDP, real annual variation in %, Q1 2016 - Q4 2020.

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ChinaAsia (ex Japan)

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2019 2020

Change in inflation forecasts

Inflation, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Inflation

Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual variation in %, Q1 2016 - Q4 2020.



September 2019

REAL SECTOR | New tariffs to hit certain Chinese exports from 1 September, but some delayed until DecemberWhile initially threatening to slap a 10% tariff on the remaining USD 300 billion of imports from China, U.S. President Donald Trump partially backed down in mid-August by postponing imposing tariffs on a list of consumer goods from 1 September to 15 December. This comes after the People’s Bank of China adjusted the official midpoint reference for the yuan below the 7-yuan-per-dollar mark for the first time since the financial crisis on 8 August.

The 1 September tariff round will go ahead for some goods, such as agricultural, clothing and antiques; however, the levy on a range of consumer goods was postponed until mid-December. The threat to impose tariffs on all remaining imports followed President Trump’s dissatisfaction with the quantity of American agricultural goods that China was buying and the lack of progress in trade negotiations. While postponing tariffs on consumer goods should prove beneficial to both countries, this by no means signifies the end of the trade war is in sight. The research team at Goldman Sachs, for example, stated that they “no longer expect a trade deal before the 2020 [U.S. presidential] election”, while Iris Pang, greater China economist at ING, added that “it won’t have escaped Chinese authorities’ attention that a full-blown trade war is unlikely to help President Trump’s chances in the election.”

Furthermore, China could retaliate with its own tariffs, which would pour further fuel on the conflict. Nevertheless, the research team at Danske Bank does not expect a marked escalation, stating that it “would do more damage to the US economy. However, we cannot rule out China starting to restrict exports of rare earth metals in retaliation if the US does not lift the import ban on Huawei.” China could also resort to other measures. For example, the government ordered state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to halt purchases of U.S. agricultural products, which, the research team at Danske Bank pointed out, is “Trump’s big headache in the trade war” as it inflicts pain upon a crucial bloc of voters in swing states.

China could also continue to adjust its foreign exchange rate, weakening the yuan to offset some of the tariff effects, which caught analysts off-guard. Pang mentioned that ING “didn’t think China’s authorities would allow USD/CNY to pass the 7.0 handle because of the disruption such a move would cause in asset markets, not just in China but around the world”, summarizing that “a currency war would not be helpful to China’s economy”. Nevertheless, Pang did concede that “Chinese leaders appear to have concluded that the currency can be used as a tool to provoke Trump and inflict political damage.”

In summary, it is unlikely that the currency will depreciate much further given the Central Bank noted that stability is a priority and the authorities will want to avoid destabilizing capital outflows. Simultaneously, as economic growth is slowing, too much depreciation would drag on growth even more, suggesting further fiscal stimulus could be on the cards. For example, in a recent Article IV visit the IMF noted that, “if trade tensions escalate further, additional stimulus, mainly fiscal, would be warranted and should be targeted.”

The government set a GDP target growth of between 6.0% and 6.5% for this year. Panelists expect GDP to expand 6.2% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. In 2020, the panel foresees lower economic growth of 6.0%.



September 2019

REAL SECTOR | Manufacturing PMI increases in JulyThe manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) increased to 49.7% in July from May’s 49.4%. The print narrowly exceeded the 49.6% result expected by market analysts. The index now sits just below the 50.0% threshold that separates contraction from expansion in the manufacturing sector.

The improvement in July was due to higher sub-indices for production, new orders and employment. As production lines became slightly busier in July, raw material inventories and supplier delivery times both fell. In terms of new orders, Iris Pang, ING’s China economist, saw two opposing trends, saying that “export related orders, including technology exports, e.g. semiconductors, have been falling due to the trade and technology war”, while, in contrast, “we expect that infrastructure-related orders will rise”.

REAL SECTOR | Industrial production growth plunges to 17-year low in JulyIndustrial production increased 4.8% year-on-year in July, down from June’s 6.3% expansion. July’s print undershot analysts’ expectations of a 5.8% rise and marked the weakest expansion since February 2002.The reading reflected slowdowns in output growth in the manufacturing and energy sectors, while production growth in the mining sector was stable.

On a month-on-month basis, industrial production increased 0.19% in seasonally-adjusted terms in July, down from the 0.68% increase in June. Annual average growth in industrial production, meanwhile, edged down to 5.8% in July from June’s 5.9%.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect industrial production to rise 5.9% in 2019, which is unchanged from the previous month’s forecast. In 2020, the panel sees industrial production growth decelerating to 5.7%.

REAL SECTOR | Retail sales slow in JulyIn July, nominal retail sales grew 7.6% on an annual basis, down from the 9.8% increase in June and below market expectations of 8.6%. July’s deceleration mostly reflected contractions in auto sales and oil and oil products sales.

On a seasonally-adjusted basis, retail sales expanded 0.22% in July, down from the 0.96% increase in June. Meanwhile, annual average growth in retail sales was stable at June’s 8.5% in July.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect retail sales to increase 8.4% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. In 2020, the panel foresees retail sales expanding 8.2%.

REAL SECTOR | Investment growth eases in January–JulyUrban fixed asset investment expanded 5.7% year-to-date in July, slightly below the 5.8% increase in January–June and market expectations of a 5.8% increase.

The result reflected a stronger contraction in the primary sector while growth in the tertiary sector slowed; however, investment growth in secondary sector accelerated. Meanwhile, property investment growth slowed over the same period.

Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index

Note: Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index. Readings above 50% indicate an expansion in the manufacturing sector while readings below 50% indicate a contraction.Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and the Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP).

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Industrial Production | variation in %

Note: Year-on-year variation of industrial production index and annual average growth rate in %. Owing to seasonal factors related to the Lunar New Year, annual figures in January and February are reported together. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and FocusEconomics calculations.

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Year-on-year

Annual average

%

Nominal Retail Sales | variation in %

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted nominal retail sales index and year-on-year variation in %. Owing to seasonal factors related to the Lunar New Year, annual figures in January and February are reported together. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS).

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Year-on-year (right scale)

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September 2019

In terms of ownership, investment growth in fixed assets of state-owned enterprises accelerated but, conversely, decelerated among private companies in January–July.

On a month-on-month basis, investment in urban fixed assets rose a seasonally-adjusted 0.43% in July, marginally down from the 0.44% expansion in June.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect fixed-asset investment to grow 5.9% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s Consensus. In 2020, the panel sees fixed-asset investment growth at 5.6%.

REAL SECTOR | Growth in house prices stable in JulyHouse prices in 70 large- and medium-sized cities rose 0.6% in July in month-on-month terms according to a weighted average index calculated by Thomson Reuters from data issued by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The print matched the increase recorded in June. According to the NBS, the sale prices of newly constructed residential buildings increased in 60 cities (63 in June).

House prices rose 9.7% annually in July, below the 10.3% rise in June and the lowest result in seven months. Annual average growth in house prices, however, increased from 9.3% in June to 9.6% in July, the strongest result since October 2017.

MONETARY SECTOR | Growth in new yuan loans and total social financing falls below expectations in JulyIn July, Chinese banks distributed CNY 1.06 trillion (USD 151 billion) in new yuan loans, a three-month low. The print was below the prior month’s CNY 1.66 trillion and market expectations of CNY 1.25 trillion; the drop in loans, however, was likely affected by seasonality. In the 12 months up to July, new yuan loans totaled CNY 16.4 trillion (12 months up to June: CNY 16.8 trillion).

Meanwhile, annual growth in M2—the broadest measure of money supply in China—eased to 8.1% in July from 8.5% in June, marking the softest reading since February. The print was short of the 8.4% rise that market analysts had expected.

Total social financing (TSF)—a broader measure of credit and liquidity in the economy that includes loans, bonds and other non-traditional instruments—fell from CNY 2.26 trillion in June to CNY 1.01 trillion. Market analysts had expected CNY 1.50 trillion.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect M2 to expand 8.7%, in 2019 which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2020, the panel sees M2 growth of 8.4%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation inches up in July; PPI falls for the first time in nearly three yearsConsumer prices rose 0.4% from the previous month in July, following June’s 0.1% drop. The print mostly reflected higher prices for food and services.

Inflation edged up to 2.8% in July from 2.7% in June. The print was slightly above market analysts’ expectations. Annual average inflation inched up to 2.3% in July from 2.2% in June.

Credit Growth | New Yuan Loans and M2

Note: New yuan loans in CNY billion and year-on-year variation of M2.Source: People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and FocusEconomics calculations.

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New yuan loans (left scale)

M2 (right scale)

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House Prices

Note: Month-on-month changes of the price index of newly constructed residential buildings in 70 large and medium cities and year-on-year variation in %. The index is calculated as a weighted average based on the population of the 70 cities.Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and Thomson Reuters.

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Urban Fixed-Asset Investment | variation in %

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted urban fixed-asset investment index and annual growth rate (year-to-date) in %. Owing to seasonal factors related to the Lunar New Year, annual figures in January and February are reported together. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS).

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Month-on-month s.a. (left scale)

Annual, year-to-date (right scale)

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September 2019

Annual producer prices (PPI), meanwhile, fell 0.3% following June’s flat reading and marked the first drop in prices in nearly three years. The result overshot market expectations of a 0.1% drop.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect that consumer inflation will average 2.4% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2020, the panel sees consumer inflation at 2.3%. Meanwhile, the panel expects producer inflation to be 0.3% in 2019, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s projection. In 2020, panelists see producer inflation at 0.8%.

EXTERNAL SECTOR | Exports rise in July despite strong headwindsIn July, exports rose 3.3% over the same month last year, contrasting the 1.3% decrease in June. The print, however, beat analysts’ expectations of a 1.0% decrease.

Imports fell 5.6% in annual terms in July, following June’s revised 7.4% drop (previously reported: -7.3% year-on-year). The reading was better than the 9.0% decline that market analysts had projected.

As a result of the sharp decrease in imports, the trade surplus rose from USD 27.5 billion in July 2018 to USD 45.1 billion in July 2019 (June: USD 51.0 billion surplus). The 12-month moving sum of the trade surplus increased from USD 397 billion in June to USD 414 billion in July.

The external sector is suffering from the trade war with the United States, Ting Lu, Lisheng Wang and Jing Wang, economists at Nomura, comment that in retaliation of the new U.S. tariffs effective 1 September “payback effects are likely to follow and downward pressures on exports may increase thereafter, especially from the re-escalation of the US-China trade conflict […] the weakening global economy and the continued global tech downcycle. Although recent sharp depreciation of RMB may offer some support for exports, we believe it is insufficient to offset the strong headwinds. That said, we expect import growth to remain sluggish in coming months, given weakening domestic demand and subdued oil price inflation.”

Our panelists forecast that exports will expand 0.8% in 2019 and imports will drop 0.5%, bringing the trade surplus to USD 381 billion. In 2020, FocusEconomics panelists expect exports will expand 2.4%, while imports will rise 3.9%, bringing down the trade surplus to USD 358 billion.

Inflation | Consumer and Producer Price Index

Note: Annual and monthly variation of consumer price index and annual variation of producer price index in %.Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS).

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CPI, month-on-month (left scale)CPI, year-on-year (right scale)PPI, year-on-year (right scale)

% %

Merchandise Trade

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.Source: General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China and FocusEconomics calculations.

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Trade Balance (USD bn, left scale)Exports (yoy, right scale)Imports, (yoy right scale)

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September 2019

Economic Indicators | 2014 - 2023Annual Data 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Real SectorPopulation (million) 1,368 1,375 1,383 1,390 1,395 1,400 1,404 1,408 1,411 1,411GDP per capita (USD) 7,650 7,912 8,065 8,738 9,712 10,175 10,838 11,797 12,878 14,104GDP (USD bn) 10,464 10,876 11,151 12,146 13,551 14,246 15,222 16,612 18,176 19,903GDP (CNY bn) 64,128 68,599 74,006 82,075 90,031 97,765 105,929 114,578 123,723 133,370Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 8.1 7.0 7.9 10.9 9.7 8.6 8.4 8.2 8.0 7.8Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.2 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.4Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 8.0 7.4 8.6 6.4 8.6 7.0 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.3Nominal Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 15.7 10.0 8.1 7.2 5.9 5.9 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.3Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 8.3 6.1 6.0 6.6 6.2 5.9 5.7 5.4 5.2 5.1Nominal Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 12.0 10.7 10.4 10.3 9.0 8.4 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.1Disposable Income (ann. var. %) 9.0 8.2 7.8 8.3 7.8 7.1 6.4 5.8 5.3 4.8Unemployment (% of active population, eop) 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.9Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -1.8 -3.4 -3.8 -3.7 -4.2 -4.4 -4.2 -4.2 -4.1 -4.1Public Debt (% of GDP) 14.9 15.5 16.2 16.4 16.6 18.3 19.8 20.6 21.6 22.5Monetary and Financial SectorMoney (ann. var. of M2 %) 12.2 13.3 11.3 8.1 8.1 8.7 8.4 8.1 7.8 7.5New Yuan Loans (CNY billion) 9,783 11,718 12,646 13,523 16,166 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 1.5 1.6 2.1 1.8 1.9 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 2.0 1.4 2.0 1.6 2.1 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, aop) -1.9 -5.2 -1.3 6.3 3.5 0.3 0.8 1.4 1.8 2.21-Year Lending Rate (%, eop) 5.60 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.33 4.32 4.34 4.37 4.401-Year Deposit Rate (%, eop) 2.75 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.45 1.39 1.61 1.84 2.0710-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 3.65 2.86 3.07 3.92 3.27 3.04 2.91 3.16 3.40 3.64Stock Market (ann. var. of SSE Comp. %) 52.9 9.4 -12.3 6.6 -24.6 - - - - -Exchange Rate (CNY per USD, eop) 6.21 6.49 6.95 6.51 6.88 6.97 6.93 6.86 6.75 6.65Exchange Rate (CNY per USD, aop) 6.16 6.28 6.64 6.76 6.62 6.86 6.96 6.90 6.81 6.70External SectorCurrent Account Balance (% of GDP) 2.3 2.8 1.8 1.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1Current Account Balance (USD bn) 236 304 202 195 49 56 30 27 22 17Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 383 594 510 420 351 381 358 342 333 334Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 2,342 2,273 2,098 2,263 2,487 2,505 2,567 2,660 2,796 2,980Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 1,959 1,680 1,588 1,844 2,136 2,125 2,209 2,319 2,463 2,646Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 6.0 -2.9 -7.7 7.9 9.9 0.8 2.4 3.7 5.1 6.6Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 0.5 -14.3 -5.5 16.1 15.8 -0.5 3.9 5.0 6.2 7.4Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 120 126 126 131 135 - - - - -International Reserves (USD bn) 3,899 3,406 3,098 3,236 3,168 3,076 3,089 3,092 3,105 3,118International Reserves (months of imports) 23.9 24.3 23.4 21.1 17.8 17.4 16.8 16.0 15.1 14.1External Debt (USD bn) 1,780 1,383 1,416 1,758 1,965 2,053 2,207 2,454 2,684 2,915External Debt (% of GDP) 17.0 12.7 12.7 14.5 14.5 14.4 14.5 14.8 14.8 14.6Quarterly Data Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.0 6.0 6.0Economic Growth (GDP, qoq s.a. var. %) 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4Nominal Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 5.4 5.9 6.3 5.8 5.8 5.9 - - - -Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 6.0 5.7 6.4 5.6 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.5Nominal Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 9.0 8.3 8.5 8.5 8.2 8.3 8.2 8.1 8.1 8.0Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 2.3 2.2 1.8 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.21-Year Lending Rate (%, eop) 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.34 4.33 4.33 4.33 4.32 4.321-Year Deposit Rate (%, eop) 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.45 1.45 1.41 1.41 1.39 1.3910-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 3.65 3.27 3.08 3.28 3.09 3.04 3.03 3.03 3.00 2.91Exchange Rate (CNY per USD, eop) 6.87 6.88 6.71 6.87 6.96 6.97 6.97 6.96 6.95 6.93Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 0.7 1.5 1.6 1.6 -0.8 -0.4 -0.1 0.4 0.4 0.7Current Account Balance (USD bn) 23.3 54.6 49.0 57.0 -26.4 -12.6 -4.9 14.1 14.0 27.9Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 84 132 74 106 101 121 72 101 108 122Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 657 660 551 620 651 678 566 637 677 700Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 573 528 477 514 550 557 493 536 569 578Monthly Data Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19Nominal Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 5.7 5.9 5.9 6.1 6.1 6.3 6.1 5.6 5.8 5.7Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 5.9 5.4 5.7 5.3 5.3 8.5 5.4 5.0 6.3 4.8Nominal Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 8.6 8.1 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.7 7.2 8.6 9.8 7.6House prices (mom s.a. var. %) 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6Consumer Confidence Index (100-pt threshold) 119.1 122.1 123.0 123.7 126.0 124.1 125.3 123.4 125.9 -PMI (50% threshold) 50.2 50.0 49.4 49.5 49.2 50.5 50.1 49.4 49.4 49.7Caixin Manufacturing PMI (50-threshold) 50.1 50.2 49.7 48.3 49.9 50.8 50.2 50.2 49.4 49.9Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 8.0 8.0 8.1 8.4 8.0 8.6 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.1New Yuan Loans (CNY billion) 697 1,250 1,080 3,230 886 1,690 1,020 1,180 1,660 1,060Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %) 2.5 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.5 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.8Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %) 3.3 2.7 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.0 -0.3Exchange Rate (CNY per USD, eop) 6.98 6.96 6.88 6.70 6.69 6.71 6.73 6.91 6.87 6.88Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 15.5 3.9 -4.6 9.3 -20.8 13.8 -2.8 1.1 -1.3 3.3Note: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts are highlighted in grey.



September 2019

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<5.5 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.7 6.9 >6.9

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product

1 | Real GDP | 2000 - 2023 | var. in %

3 | GDP 2019 | evolution of forecasts

2 | Real GDP | Q1 16-Q4 20 | var. in % Real GDP growth in %

4 | GDP 2020 | evolution of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Others refers to the Consensus Forecast additional panelists who are not shown in the FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast China report due to space constraints. A full panelist breakdown is available in the report’s accompanying Excel file.

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2023 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.1 GDP, real annual variation in %. 2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.3 GDP, evolution of 2019 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2019 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in

%. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

Individual Forecasts 2019 2020AIM 6.3 6.3ANZ 6.2 6.0Bank of China (HK) 6.2 6.1Bank of East Asia 6.2 6.0BBVA Research 6.1 5.8Berenberg 6.2 5.9BNP Paribas 6.2 6.0Capital Economics 6.3 6.2CICC 6.4 6.3Citigroup Global Mkts 6.3 6.0Coface 6.3 6.0Commerzbank 6.2 5.8Credit Agricole 6.4 6.0Credit Suisse 6.2 6.0Daiwa 6.3 6.0Danske Bank 6.2 6.0DBS Bank 6.2 6.0DekaBank 6.2 6.0DIW Berlin 6.2 6.0DuckerFrontier 6.2 5.9EIU 6.2 6.1Euromonitor Int. 6.1 5.9Fitch Ratings 6.2 6.0Fitch Solutions 6.3 6.1Goldman Sachs 6.3 6.0Hang Seng Bank 6.3 -HSBC 6.5 6.3ING 6.3 6.2JPMorgan 6.2 6.0Julius Baer 6.1 5.9KBC 6.1 5.7Kiel Institute 6.2 5.8Lloyds Bank 6.2 6.0Macroeconomic Policy Institute 6.4 6.1Mizuho Securities 6.2 6.0Moody's Analytics 6.3 6.0Nomura 6.1 5.8NORD/LB 6.2 6.0Nordea 6.2 5.9Oxford Economics 6.2 5.9Pezco Economics 6.2 6.0S&P Global 6.2 6.2S-Bank 6.2 6.0Scotiabank 6.2 6.0Shanghai Commercial Bank 6.3 6.0Société Générale 6.3 6.0Standard Chartered 6.2 6.2UBS 6.1 5.8Unicredit 6.2 5.9Others (2)* 6.3 -SummaryMinimum 6.1 5.7Maximum 6.5 6.3Median 6.2 6.0Consensus 6.2 6.0History30 days ago 6.2 6.060 days ago 6.3 6.090 days ago 6.3 6.0Additional ForecastsIMF (Aug. 2019) 6.2 6.0World Bank (June 2019) 6.2 6.1Government (Mar. 2019) 6.0-6.5 -

-5

0

5

10

15

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

ChinaAsia (ex Japan)World 2

4

6

8

Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20

ChinaAsia (ex Japan)World

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0


MaximumConsensusMinimum

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0



5 | GDP 2019 | Panelist Distribution



September 2019

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

9 | Investment | evol. of forecasts

5

6

7

8


2019 2020

8 | Investment | variation in %

0

10

20

30

40

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

China

Asia (ex Japan)

7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0


2019 2020

6 | Consumption | variation in %

4

6

8

10

12

14

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020


Individual Forecasts 2019 2020 2019 2020Bank of China (HK) 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.6Bank of East Asia - - 6.1 5.8BBVA Research 5.8 5.7 6.0 5.9Credit Suisse 7.7 6.7 - -Danske Bank 7.5 7.8 - -DuckerFrontier 6.6 6.6 - -EIU 7.5 7.2 - -Euromonitor Int. 7.0 7.0 - -Fitch Ratings 6.6 7.1 - -Fitch Solutions 7.3 8.0 - -Goldman Sachs 7.5 7.5 - -Hang Seng Bank - - 6.0 -HSBC 7.5 7.0 5.7 5.4Macroeconomic Policy Institute 6.3 5.9 - -Mizuho Securities - - 6.0 5.5Moody's Analytics 7.8 8.2 - -Nomura - - 6.0 6.0Oxford Economics 6.9 6.7 - -Pezco Economics 6.8 6.8 5.9 5.7Société Générale - - 5.6 4.8SummaryMinimum 5.8 5.7 5.6 4.8Maximum 7.8 8.2 6.1 6.0Median 7.0 7.0 6.0 5.7Consensus 7.0 6.9 5.9 5.6History30 days ago 7.0 6.9 5.9 5.860 days ago 7.0 7.0 6.1 6.290 days ago 6.9 6.9 6.3 6.2

Consumption Nom. Investment variation in % variation in %

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2023 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the World Bank (WB) and the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS). See below for details. Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.6 Private consumption, annual variation in %. Source. WB.7 Private consumption, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.8 Nominal urban fixed investment, annual variation in %. Source. NBS.9 Nominal urban fixed investment, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.



September 2019

Individual Forecasts 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020Bank of China (HK) 5.9 5.8 - - - -Bank of East Asia 5.7 5.7 3.8 4.0 - -BBVA Research 5.8 5.5 4.0 4.0 - -Berenberg 5.7 5.1 3.7 3.8 -4.5 -4.5BNP Paribas - - - - -4.4 -4.5China First Capital - - 4.0 - - -CICC 5.8 5.6 - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts - - 3.8 4.0 - -Coface - - - - -4.0 -4.0Credit Suisse - - 3.8 3.8 - -Daiwa - - - - -4.8 -5.0DekaBank - - 4.1 4.2 -4.5 -4.5DIW Berlin - - 3.7 3.7 - -DuckerFrontier 6.0 5.7 4.0 4.1 - -EIU 6.1 5.9 4.1 4.2 -4.5 -4.5Emirates NBD - - - - -4.0 -Euromonitor Int. 6.1 6.8 - - - -Fitch Solutions - - - - -4.8 -4.6Goldman Sachs 5.5 5.4 - - -4.8 -4.4Hang Seng Bank 6.2 - - - - -HSBC 6.0 5.7 4.0 4.0 - -ING - - - - -4.5 -4.0Macroeconomic Policy Institute - - 4.0 4.1 - -Mizuho Securities 5.7 5.3 3.8 4.0 -4.7 -3.5Moody's Analytics 6.5 6.1 3.9 4.0 - -Nomura 5.5 5.2 - - -4.0 -4.0NORD/LB - - 4.0 4.0 -4.4 -4.3Nordea - - - - -4.2 -4.0Oxford Economics 5.9 5.4 3.6 3.6 -4.3 -4.1Pezco Economics 5.9 5.9 4.0 4.0 -4.2 -4.2S&P Global - - 3.8 3.9 - -Société Générale 6.2 5.5 - - - -UBS 5.9 5.5 4.2 4.2 -4.4 -3.3United Overseas Bank - - 3.9 4.0 - -SummaryMinimum 5.5 5.1 3.6 3.6 -4.8 -5.0Maximum 6.5 6.8 4.2 4.2 -4.0 -3.3Median 5.9 5.6 4.0 4.0 -4.4 -4.3Consensus 5.9 5.7 3.9 4.0 -4.4 -4.2History30 days ago 5.9 5.7 3.9 4.0 -4.3 -4.260 days ago 6.0 5.8 4.0 4.0 -4.2 -4.290 days ago 6.0 5.8 4.0 4.0 -4.2 -4.3

Industry Unemployment Fiscal Balance variation in % % of active pop. % of GDP

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2023 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security (MOHRSS). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.10 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: NBS.11 Industrial production, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.12 Urban unemployment, % of active population. Source: MOHRSS.13 Balance of central government as % of GDP. Source: NBS.

13 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP

-6

-4

-2

0

2

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

China

Asia (ex Japan)

12 | Unemployment | % of active pop.

2.5

3.5

4.5

5.5

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020


11 | Industry | evol. of forecasts

5.4

5.6

5.8

6.0

6.2


2019 2020

10 | Industry | variation in %

0

5

10

15

20

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020


Real Sector | Additional Forecasts



September 2019

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

<1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 >3.1

Monetary Sector | Inflation

14 | Inflation | 2000 - 2023 | in %

16 | Inflation 2019 | evolution of fcst

15 | Inflation | Q1 16-Q4 20 | in %

17 | Inflation 2020 | evolution of fcst

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2023 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.14 Inflation, annual average variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %.15 Inflation, annual variation of quarterly average consumer price index (CPI) in %.16 Inflation, evolution of 2019 forecasts during the last 18 months.17 Inflation, evolution of 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.18 Inflation, panelist distribution of 2019 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval

in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

Individual Forecasts 2019 2020AIM 2.2 2.0ANZ 2.2 1.5Bank of China (HK) 2.4 2.1Bank of East Asia 2.2 2.3BBVA Research 2.3 2.5Berenberg 2.2 2.1BNP Paribas 2.2 2.6Capital Economics 3.0 2.5CICC 2.3 1.6Citigroup Global Mkts 2.4 2.0Coface 2.5 3.0Commerzbank 2.3 2.0Credit Agricole 2.6 2.4Credit Suisse 2.5 2.2Daiwa 2.0 1.8Danske Bank 2.5 2.2DBS Bank 2.3 2.3DekaBank 2.4 2.6DIW Berlin 2.2 2.2DuckerFrontier 2.3 2.3EIU 2.9 3.1Emirates NBD 2.3 -Euromonitor Int. 2.3 2.3Fitch Solutions 2.7 2.7Goldman Sachs 2.5 2.7Hang Seng Bank 2.2 -HSBC 1.8 2.0ING 2.5 2.5JPMorgan 2.5 3.5Julius Baer 2.2 2.5KBC 2.4 2.6Kiel Institute 2.4 2.3Lloyds Bank 2.4 2.3Macroeconomic Policy Institute 2.4 2.7Mizuho Securities 2.5 2.2Moody's Analytics 2.5 3.0Nomura 2.5 2.3NORD/LB 2.3 2.3Nordea 2.2 2.4Oxford Economics 2.5 2.6Pezco Economics 2.0 1.9S&P Global 2.1 2.0S-Bank 2.1 2.2Shanghai Commercial Bank 2.5 -Société Générale 2.4 2.3Standard Chartered 2.5 2.5UBS 2.3 1.9Unicredit 2.3 2.5United Overseas Bank 2.4 2.3SummaryMinimum 1.8 1.5Maximum 3.0 3.5Median 2.4 2.3Consensus 2.4 2.3History30 days ago 2.3 2.360 days ago 2.3 2.390 days ago 2.2 2.2Additional ForecastsIMF (Aug. 2019) 2.2 2.4World Bank (May 2019) 2.0 2.0Government (Mar. 2019) 3.0 -

18 | Inflation 2019 | Panelist Distribution

Inflation | annual variation of consumer price index in %

1

2

3

4



-2

0

2

4

6

8

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020


1

2

3

4



1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20




September 2019

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

<0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 >2.25

Monetary Sector | Interest Rate

19 | Interest Rate | 2000 - 2023 | in %

21 | Int. Rate 2019 | evolution of fcst

20 | Interest Rate | Q1 16-Q4 20 | in %

22 | Int. Rate 2020 | evolution of fcst

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2023 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.19 Interest rate, 1-year deposit rate in % (eop).20 Quarterly interest rate, 1-year deposit rate in % (eop).21 Interest rate, evolution of 2019 forecasts during the last 18 months.22 Interest rate, evolution of 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.23 Interest rate, panelist distribution of 2019 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast

interval in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

Individual Forecasts 2019 2020Bank of China (HK) 1.50 1.50Bank of East Asia 1.50 1.39BBVA Research 1.25 1.25Capital Economics 1.50 1.50CICC 1.50 -Credit Agricole 1.00 0.75Daiwa 1.50 1.50DekaBank 1.50 -EIU 1.50 1.50Mizuho Securities 1.50 1.50Nomura 1.50 1.50NORD/LB 1.50 -Standard Chartered 1.50 -UBS 1.50 1.50SummaryMinimum 1.00 0.75Maximum 1.50 1.50Median 1.50 1.50Consensus 1.45 1.39History30 days ago 1.44 1.3960 days ago 1.48 1.4790 days ago 1.50 1.49

23 | Interest Rate 2019 | Panelist Distribution

Interest Rate | 1-Year Deposit Rate

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5


ConsensusMaximumMinimum

1

2

3

4

5

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

China

Asia (ex Japan)

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5


Consensus

Maximum

Minimum

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20



September 2019

0%

20%

40%

60%

<6.2 6.4 6.6 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.6 >7.6

Monetary Sector | Exchange Rate

24 | Exchange Rate | CNY per USD

26 | CNY per USD 2019 | evol. of fcst

25 | Exchange Rate | CNY per USD

27 | CNY per USD 2020 | evol. of fcst

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2023 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from Thomson Reuters. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.24 Exchange rate, CNY per USD (eop).25 Quarterly exchange rate, CNY per USD (eop).26 Exchange rate, evolution of 2019 forecasts during the last 18 months.27 Exchange rate, evolution of 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.28 Exchange rate, panelist distribution of 2019 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast

interval in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

Individual Forecasts 2019 2020AIM 6.80 6.92ANZ 6.92 6.75BBVA Research 6.75 6.70Capital Economics 6.90 7.50China First Capital 7.00 -CICC 6.90 -Citigroup Global Mkts 6.87 6.54Coface 7.00 7.10Commerzbank 7.15 -Credit Agricole 7.05 7.30Credit Suisse 6.90 6.70Daiwa 7.60 7.60Danske Bank 6.90 -DBS Bank 7.20 7.00DekaBank 7.20 -EIU 6.97 6.79Emirates NBD 7.10 -Fitch Ratings 7.00 7.20Fitch Solutions 6.90 6.95Goldman Sachs 7.05 7.00HSBC 6.75 -ING 7.10 7.00JPMorgan 7.35 -Julius Baer 7.01 7.07KBC 6.90 -Lloyds Bank 6.75 6.60Macroeconomic Policy Institute 6.74 6.66Mizuho Securities 7.10 7.10Moody's Analytics 6.70 6.64Nomura 7.00 7.25NORD/LB 7.00 -Nordea 6.80 6.75Oxford Economics 6.78 6.65Pezco Economics 6.95 6.85S&P Global 7.05 7.02Scotiabank 6.70 6.50Société Générale 6.99 7.12Standard Chartered 6.86 6.82UBS 7.10 7.20Unicredit 6.85 6.75United Overseas Bank 6.99 -SummaryMinimum 6.70 6.50Maximum 7.60 7.60Median 6.97 6.94Consensus 6.97 6.93History30 days ago 6.91 6.8860 days ago 6.88 6.8090 days ago 6.83 6.74

28 | CNY per USD 2019 | Panelist Distribution

Exchange Rate | CNY per USD

5.5

6.5

7.5

8.5



6

7

8

9

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

5.5

6.5

7.5

8.5



6.1

6.3

6.5

6.7

6.9

7.1

Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20



September 2019

200

300

400

500


2019 2020

32 | Trade Balance | evol. of forecasts

0

800

1,600

2,400

3,200

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Trade BalanceExportsImports

31 | Trade Balance | USD bn

0

3

6

9

12

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020


29 | Current Account | % of GDP

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5


2019 2020

30 | Current Account | evol. of fcst

Individual Forecasts 2019 2020 2019 2020AIM 0.4 0.3 - -Bank of China (HK) 0.3 0.3 350 340Bank of East Asia - - 387 360BBVA Research 0.1 0.1 368 358BNP Paribas 0.1 -0.5 - -Capital Economics 1.0 1.0 376 335CICC - - 343 317Citigroup Global Mkts 0.2 -0.1 - -Coface 0.0 -0.2 - -Credit Agricole 0.6 -0.2 - -Credit Suisse 0.5 0.6 315 195Daiwa 0.2 0.1 - -Danske Bank 0.0 -0.1 - -DekaBank 0.1 -0.3 - -EIU 0.2 -0.2 373 391Emirates NBD 0.1 - - -Euromonitor Int. 0.6 0.4 392 375Fitch Solutions 0.2 0.0 395 393Goldman Sachs -0.3 -0.5 - -Hang Seng Bank - - 440 -HSBC 0.9 0.5 390 385JPMorgan 0.1 -0.1 342 -Macroeconomic Policy Institute -0.4 -0.4 - -Mizuho Securities 1.9 2.1 501 567Moody's Analytics 1.4 0.9 - -Nomura 0.5 -0.2 337 207NORD/LB 0.2 0.0 - -Nordea 0.0 -0.1 - -Oxford Economics 0.7 0.4 440 415Pezco Economics 0.8 0.5 271 264Société Générale 0.5 0.1 - -Standard Chartered -0.5 0.0 - -UBS 0.8 0.1 450 470Unicredit 0.8 0.8 - -United Overseas Bank 0.7 0.7 - -SummaryMinimum -0.5 -0.5 271 195Maximum 1.9 2.1 501 567Median 0.3 0.1 376 360Consensus 0.4 0.2 381 358History30 days ago 0.3 0.2 358 32860 days ago 0.2 0.1 345 32290 days ago 0.3 0.2 361 343

Current Account Trade Balance% of GDP USD bn

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2023 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China (Customs) and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.29 Current account balance, as % of GDP. Source: SAFE. 30 Current account balance, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.31 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD. Source: Customs.32 Trade balance, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.

External Sector | Current Account and Trade Balance



September 2019

Individual Forecasts 2019 2020 2019 2020Bank of China (HK) 2,450 2,535 2,100 2,195Bank of East Asia 2,467 2,548 2,080 2,188BBVA Research 2,576 2,679 2,208 2,321Capital Economics 2,469 2,469 2,092 2,134CICC 2,536 2,554 2,193 2,237Credit Suisse 2,748 2,998 2,433 2,802EIU 2,574 2,666 2,201 2,274Euromonitor Int. 2,542 2,634 2,150 2,258Fitch Solutions 2,538 2,665 2,144 2,272Hang Seng Bank 2,512 - 2,072 -HSBC 2,545 2,614 2,155 2,229JPMorgan 2,456 - 2,114 -Mizuho Securities 2,573 2,701 2,072 2,134Nomura 2,441 2,377 2,103 2,170Oxford Economics 2,414 2,475 1,974 2,060Pezco Economics 2,370 2,253 2,100 1,989UBS 2,381 2,334 1,931 1,864SummaryMinimum 2,370 2,253 1,931 1,864Maximum 2,748 2,998 2,433 2,802Median 2,512 2,554 2,103 2,195Consensus 2,505 2,567 2,125 2,209History30 days ago 2,508 2,590 2,150 2,26260 days ago 2,499 2,598 2,154 2,27590 days ago 2,512 2,619 2,151 2,277

Exports ImportsUSD bn USD bn

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2023 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China (Customs). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.33 Exports, annual variation in %. 34 Exports, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.35 Imports, annual variation in %. 36 Imports, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.

2,000

2,150

2,300

2,450


2019 2020

36 | Imports | evol. of forecasts

-30

-15

0

15

30

45

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020


35 | Imports | variation in %

-20

0

20

40

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020


33 | Exports | variation in %

2,400

2,500

2,600

2,700

2,800


2019 2020

34 | Exports | evolution of fcst

External Sector | Exports and Imports



September 2019

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400


2019 2020

41 | External Debt | evol. of forecasts

5

10

15

20

25

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020


40 | External Debt | % of GDP

5

10

15

20

25

30

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020


38 | Int. Reserves | months of imports

3,000

3,100

3,200

3,300


2019 2020

39 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst

Individual Forecasts 2019 2020 2019 2020Bank of China (HK) 3,120 3,150 2,134 2,348BNP Paribas 3,087 3,100 - -Capital Economics 3,010 3,050 - -Citigroup Global Mkts 3,124 3,144 2,127 2,340Coface 3,000 2,900 - -Credit Suisse 3,210 3,333 - -EIU 2,892 2,811 2,064 2,260Euromonitor Int. 3,169 3,173 - -Fitch Solutions 3,043 3,093 - -HSBC 3,050 3,100 1,995 2,005Oxford Economics 3,281 3,501 2,067 2,330Pezco Economics 2,935 2,831 - -UBS 3,068 2,968 1,930 1,957SummaryMinimum 2,892 2,811 1,930 1,957Maximum 3,281 3,501 2,134 2,348Median 3,068 3,100 2,066 2,295Consensus 3,076 3,089 2,053 2,207History30 days ago 3,048 3,066 2,056 2,21560 days ago 3,028 3,040 2,024 2,16490 days ago 3,042 3,041 2,023 2,164

External DebtInt. ReservesUSD bnUSD bn

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2023 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE). See below for details. Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 38 International reserves, months of imports. Source: PBOC.39 International reserves, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.40 External debt as % of GDP. Source: SAFE.41 External debt, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.

External Sector | Additional forecasts



September 2019

Fact Sheet

Japan8.4%

U.S.A.7.8%

Australia5.2%

EU-2711.7%

Other Asia ex-Japan

22.5%

Korea9.6%

LatAm7.7%

MENA7.2%

Other19.9%

U.S.A.19.7%

Japan5.5%

EU-2717.0%

Other Asia ex-Japan

23.3%

Hong Kong11.7%

LatAm6.3%

Other16.6%

Other4.4%

Manufact. Products

65.2%

Ores & Metals10.6%

Mineral Fuels13.0%

Food6.8%

Other6.1%

Manufact. Products

93.9%

Trade Structure

Primary markets | share in %

Primary products | share in %

Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

General Data

Economic Infrastructure

Political Data

Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings

Strengths Weaknesses

• Huge domestic market • Nascent legal system• Competitive labor costs • Entangled bureaucracy• Developed infrastructure • Fragile financial system

.

.

• Trade tensions with the United States

• Major international manufacturing hub

• Overcapacity in certain industries and high levels of corporate debt

Energy (2016)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 107,117Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 136,244Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 5,883Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 5,564Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 4,863Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 12,792CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 10,295

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: A1 StableS&P Global Ratings: A+ StableFitch Ratings: A+ Stable

Telecommunication (2017) Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 13.7Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 104.3Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 53.2Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 28.0

Transportation (2015) Airports: 507Railways (km): 124,000Roadways (km): 4,577,300Waterways (km): 110,000Chief Ports: Shanghai, Canton, Ningbo

Official name: People's Republic of ChinaCapital: Beijing (19.6 m)Other cities: Shanghai (25.6 m)

Tianjin (13.2 m)Guangzhou (12.7 m)

Shenzhen (11.9 m)Area (km2): 9,596,961Population (million, 2018 est.): 1,395Population density (per km2, 2018): 145Pop. growth rate (%, 2018 est.): 0.37Life expectancy (years, 2018 est.): 75.8Illiteracy rate (%, 2015): 3.6Language: Mandarin ChineseMeasures: Metric & local systemsTime: GMT+8

President: Xi JinpingPrime Minister: Li KeqiangLatest National People's Congress: 5-15 March 2019Next National People's Congress: March 2020Governor of the PBOC: Yi Gang

China in the Region

Population | %-share in Asia (ex Japan) GDP | %-share in Asia (ex Japan)

China60.0%India

12.0%

Korea7.6%

Indonesia4.6%

Taiwan2.6%

Other13.2%

China36.2%

India34.7%

Indonesia6.9%

Pakistan5.2%

Bangladesh4.3%

Other12.8%

Economic Structure

GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %

0

20

40

60

80

1002009-11 2012-14 2015-17

Net Exports

Investment

GovernmentConsumption

PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002009-11 2012-14 2015-17

Agriculture

Industry

Services

FOCUSECONOMICS Calendar


September 2019

Economic Release Calendar

Date Country Event19 August Thailand Q2 2019 National Accounts 20 August Hong Kong July Consumer Prices22 August Indonesia Central Bank Meeting23 August Singapore July Consumer Prices23 August Taiwan July Industrial Production23 August Thailand July Merchandise Trade27 August Korea August Consumer Confidence28 August New Zealand August Business Confidence (**)28 August Thailand July Manufacturing Production29 August Korea September Business Confidence29 August Vietnam August Consumer Prices 29 August Vietnam August Industrial Production 30 August Hong Kong July Retail Sales30 August Korea Central Bank Meeting30 August Korea July Industrial Production30 August New Zealand August Consumer Confidence (**)31 August China August Manufacturing PMI31 August India Q2 2019 National Accounts2 September Indonesia August Manufacturing PMI2 September Indonesia August Consumer Prices2 September Korea August Manufacturing PMI2 September Korea August Merchandise Trade (**)2 September Philippines August Manufacturing PMI2 September Singapore August SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (**)2 September Taiwan August Manufacturing PMI3 September Australia Central Bank Meeting3 September Australia July Retail Sales3 September India August Manufacturing PMI3 September Korea Q2 2019 National Accounts3 September Korea August Consumer Prices3 September Malaysia August Manufacturing PMI3 September Vietnam August Manufacturing PMI4 September Australia Q2 2019 National Accounts4 September Hong Kong August PMI4 September Malaysia July Merchandise Trade4 September Thailand August Consumer Prices5 September India August Services PMI5 September Philippines August Consumer Prices8 September China August Merchandise Trade (**)10 September China August Consumer and Production Prices10 September Indonesia July Retail Sales10 September Philippines July Merchandise Trade11 September Australia August Business Confidence (**)

Calendar

FOCUSECONOMICS Calendar


September 2019

Economic Release Calendar

(*) Preliminary estimate. (**) Approximate date.

Date Country Event11 September China August M2 and New Loans (**)11 September Malaysia July Industrial Production12 September Australia September Consumer Confidence (**)12 September India July Industrial Production12 September India August Consumer Prices12 September Malaysia Central Bank Meeting14 September India August Wholesale Prices14 September India August Merchandise Trade15 September Indonesia August Merchandise Trade16 September China August Industrial Production16 September China August Retail Sales16 September China August Fixed Asset Investment16 September Philippines July OFW Remittances

FOCUSECONOMICS


September 2019

Notes and Statements

PUBLICATION NOTE Consensus forecasts are mean averages of projections of economic forecasters surveyed by FocusEconomics for our monthly publication. Quarterly averages may not correspond to the annual figures due to different forecast panels.

The GDP-weighted averages for the regional aggregates refer to economies surveyed by FocusEconomics on a monthly basis, and include the following countries:

Asia-Pacific (21 countries): Australia, Bangladesh, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Mongolia, Myanmar, New Zealand, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam.Asia (20 countries): Bangladesh, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Mongolia, Myanmar, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam.Asia (ex Japan) (19 countries): Bangladesh, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Mongolia, Myanmar, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam.Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN, 10 countries): Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.East and South Asia (9 countries): Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Korea, Mongolia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Taiwan.East Asia (5 countries): China, Hong Kong, Korea, Mongolia and Taiwan.South Asia (4 countries): Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.Newly Industrialized Economies (NIE, 4 countries): Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan.

Weights are based on market exchange rates and reflect the latest forecasts on GDP growth, inflation and exchange rates.

COPYRIGHT NOTE © Copyright 2019 FocusEconomics S.L.U. Duplication, reproduction, transmission, publication or redistribution in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, or otherwise without prior written consent of FocusEconomics S.L.U. is strictly prohibited. Please cite source when quoting. All rights reserved under International Copyright Conventions.

The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast East and South Asia is a monthly publication of FocusEconomics. Communications to the Editor or FocusEconomics in general should be addressed as follows:

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DISCLOSURE STATEMENTThe FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast (“Forecast”) is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable. FocusEconomics and the participating panelists (“Information Providers”) do not guarantee that the information supplied in the Forecast is accurate, complete or timely. The Information Providers do not make any warranties with regard to the results obtained from the Forecast. The Information Providers are not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for any injuries or damages resulting from the use of this information, including incidental and consequential damages. Recipients should not regard the Forecast as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgement. The recommendations made in the Forecast may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. The Forecast has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation of any transaction or an offer to enter into any transaction. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice and the Information Providers are under no obligation to update the information contained herein.

Notes

FocusEconomics reports are designed to give you fast access to the data and insight you need so that you can make the right decisions for your business. Our reports provide hundreds of economic and commodities price forecasts from our network of more than 900 of the most reputable economic analysts in the world.

MAJOR ECONOMIES G7 countries (United States, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, France, Germany & Italy) and overview of the BRIC countriesEURO AREA & SWITZERLAND Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain and SwitzerlandNORDIC ECONOMIES Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and SwedenCENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and SloveniaCIS COUNTRIES Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and UzbekistanSOUTH-EASTERN EUROPE Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Greece, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, Romania, Serbia and TurkeyEAST & SOUTH ASIA Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Korea, Mongolia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Australia and New ZealandASEAN ECONOMIES Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Australia and New ZealandLATIN AMERICA Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay and VenezuelaCENTRAL AMERICA & THE CARIBBEAN Belize, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico and Trinidad and TobagoMIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates and YemenSUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Angola, Botswana, Côte d’Ivoire, DR Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia

ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR KEY INDICATORS IN 127 COUNTRIES IN 12 REGIONS

REAL SECTOR GDP per capita, Economic Growth, Consumption, Investment, Industrial Production, Unemployment Rate, Fiscal Balance and Public DebtMONETARY & FINANCIAL SECTOR Money, Inflation Rate, Policy Interest Rate and Exchange RateEXTERNAL SECTOR Current Account, Trade Balance, Exports, Imports, International Reserves and External Debt

ENERGY Brent Crude Oil, WTI Crude Oil, Coking Coal, Ethanol, Gasoil (European market), Gasoline (U.S. benchmark), Natural Gas, Thermal Coal and UraniumBASE METALS Alumina, Aluminium, Aluminium Alloy, Copper, Iron Ore, Lead, Nickel, Steel (European and U.S. markets), Tin and ZincPRECIOUS METALS Gold, Silver, Palladium and PlatinumAGRICULTURAL Cocoa, Coffee, Corn, Cotton, Oats, Soybeans, Sugar, Wheat and Wool

PRICE FORECASTS FOR 33 COMMODITIES IN 4 MAIN GROUPS

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