CONSENSUS FORECAST - FocusEconomics · Bank Rossii cut interest rates by 100 basis points to 14.0%...

CONSENSUS FORECAST

RUSSIA 2CALENDAR 20NOTES 22

Contributors

PUBLICATION DATE 14 April 2015FORECASTS COLLECTED 7 April - 13 April 2015

INFORMATION AVAILABLE Up to and including 13 April 2015 NEXT EDITION 12 May 2015

Russia • April 2015

ARNE POHLMAN Chief EconomistARMANDO CICCARELLI Head of ResearchRICARDO ACEVES Senior EconomistRICARD TORNÉ Senior EconomistOLGA COSCODAN Economist

CARL KELLY EconomistTERESA KERSTING EconomistDIRINA MANÇELLARI EconomistANGELA BOUZANIS EconomistCECILIA SIMKIEVICH Economist

ROBERT HILL Economist ERIC DENIS Economist MIRIAM DOWD Editor

FOCUSECONOMICS Russia

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 2

April 2015

Russia

REAL SECTOR | Reality check prompts the government to change budget plans for this yearThe government announced on 2 March that it would present new fiscal projection for this year and next in an effort to shore up the deteriorating economic situation and worsening economic prospects. The economy has been affected by a number of structural problems, but the economic deterioration has been exacerbated by the Western sanctions that have been imposed on Russia in response to the Ukrainian crisis and the sharp fall in oil prices that began in the second half of 2014. Amendments to the 2015 budget passed the first reading in Russian’s lower house of parliament on 27 March.

According to the Ministry of Finance, budget revenues are now expected to be RUB 12.5 trillion this year, which represents a 17.5% reduction compared to the Ministry’s original projection and a 14.1% decrease over the previous year. Meanwhile, expenditures are expected to stay at RUB 15.2 trillion, which will then push the fiscal deficit from the previously-expected RUB 431 billion to RUB 2.7 trillion—or from 0.6% of GDP to 3.8% of GDP. For 2016, the new figures suggest that revenues will recover to RUB 14.0 trillion and expenditures will fall to RUB 15.0 trillion. The Ministry of Finance continues to expect that the budget will be balanced in 2017.

Outlook deteriorates

LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages

2011-13 2014-16 2017-19Population (million): 143 144 144GDP (USD bn): 2,046 1,582 1,786GDP per capita (USD): 14,274 11,009 12,429GDP growth (%): 3.0 -1.1 2.0Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): 0.0 -1.9 -1.0Public Debt (% of GDP): 10.5 14.0 14.7Inflation (%): 6.7 10.4 5.9Current Account (% of GDP): 3.4 3.5 2.7External Debt (% of GDP): 31.0 36.8 35.8

Russia

Ricardo AcevesSenior Economist

The Russian economy eked out unexpected growth in the last quarter of 2014, demonstrating resilience in the face of geopolitical headwinds, international sanctions, a falling ruble and lower oil prices. However, the start of 2015 has brought signs of contraction as negative growth momentum has been picking up speed. In February, industrial production growth plummeted to a two-year low and exports decreased for the eighth time in the last nine months. In addition, the manufacturing and services PMIs continued to point to contraction in March and confidence among Russian consumers fell to the lowest level since 2009 in Q1. Owing to the economic deterioration and lower tax take from the hydrocarbons sector, the Finance Ministry presented new fiscal projections for this year, which foresee a fiscal deficit of 3.8% of GDP.

Following lackluster economic growth in 2014, the Russian economy is expected to take a nosedive this year, driven by lower oil prices, international sanctions and geopolitical tensions. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy contracting 4.3% this year, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2016, the panel expects the economy to recover somewhat and grow a tepid 0.3%.

Inflation reached its highest level since 2002 in March with a rate of 16.9%. It is expected to continue rising in the first half of the year, before easing in the second half. Bank Rossii cut interest rates by 100 basis points to 14.0% in March and signaled that more cuts will be made. Panelists expect inflation to close 2015 at 13.0%. In 2016, the panel sees inflation falling to 7.4%.

Budget balance | % of GDP

Note: General government balance as % of GDP.Source: Ministry of Finance and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

-6.0

-3.0

0.0

3.0

6.0

9.0

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

%



April 2015

The government’s new calculations are based on revised projections for oil prices, which are foreseen averaging USD 55 per barrel in 2015, USD 65 per barrel in 2016 and USD 70 per barrel in 2017. In addition, the government expects the economy to contract 3.0% this year and sees the ruble trading at an average RUB 60 per USD. In the previous budget, which many analysts had already considered too optimistic, the government had assumed that the oil price would average USD 100 per barrel in 2015, while it projected economic growth of 1.2%.

The Ministry of Finance also indicated that the new budget deficit (now projected at RUB 2.7 trillion, equivalent to 3.8% of GDP) would be covered by the country’s Reserve Fund, rather than by raising debt. The government expects that the RUB 4.7 trillion Reserve Fund will cover about RUB 3.0 trillion in total spending. That will, however, require the parliament to increase the ceiling on annual spending from the Sovereign Wealth Fund, but it is unlikely that the Duma will alter the plan. As a result, the total value of the Reserve Fund is expected to fall by over 60% this year.

In the geopolitical arena, although the new Minsk peace agreement—better known as Minsk-II—that was signed on 12 February appears to be holding for longer than the last agreement, most analysts and observers have concluded that it is fragile and will not hold for very long. In order to de-escalate tensions, observers agree that further rounds of negotiations are required and that additional steps have be implemented. Should the violence in the Eastern regions of Ukraine continue and diplomatic talks fail, Western countries are likely to prolong, and perhaps even increase, economic sanctions on Russia. Should this occur, the Russian government would have to make further spending cuts and increase borrowing in order to run a similar deficit beyond 2015 as the Reserve Fund is expected to be depleted this year. This would be very costly, given the country’s worsening sovereign credit rating.

The government’s new fiscal deficit projections are more in line with those of FocusEconomics panelists who expect the fiscal balance to incur a deficit of 3.1% of GDP in 2015. For 2016, participants in the Consensus see the fiscal deficit falling to 2.1% of GDP.

REAL SECTOR | Economy cools in Q4 but unexpectedly ekes out growthEconomic growth decelerated less than expected in the last quarter of 2014, according to preliminary data published by the Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) on 1 April. The Russian economy increased 0.4% year-on-year in Q4, which came in below the revised 0.9% expansion registered in Q3 (previously reported: +0.7% year-on-year). That said, markets expected that Russia’s GDP had contracted 0.4% in the last quarter of 2014. Meanwhile, sequential data showed that GDP was flat in seasonally-adjusted terms in Q4 2014, which followed a similar reading recorded in Q3.

The moderation in Q4 was mainly the result of a further contraction in government spending, another decrease in fixed investment and deterioration in the external sector. Exports of goods and services contracted 2.3% annually in Q4, which came in below the 1.3% decrease observed in Q3. Imports plummeted 7.8% over the same quarter of the previous year, which followed the 7.6% contraction registered in the third quarter. Consequently, the external sector’s net contribution to overall economic growth fell from 1.7 percentage points to 1.2 percentage points.

-6.0

-3.0

0.0

3.0

6.0

Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015

%

Gross Domestic Product | variation in %

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.Source: Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.



April 2015

On the domestic front, government spending deteriorated and contracted 0.2% in Q4, which was below the 0.1% decrease tallied in Q3. Fixed investment eased the pace of contraction from a 1.7% decrease in Q3 to a 1.2% contraction in Q4. Conversely, private consumption showed solid growth in the last quarter of 2014, despite the deteriorating economic environment. It increased 1.0% in Q4, which marked an acceleration over the 0.2% rise recorded in the previous quarter.

In 2014, the Russian economy expanded 0.6%, which confirmed a preliminary estimate released in January. The reading came in below the 1.3% expansion recorded in 2013 and represented the worst economic performance since 2009.

The economy is expected to experience a significant contraction this year due to a combination of lower oil prices, high inflation, tightening of monetary policy and no signs that the West will lift the sanctions. The Central Bank expects the economy to contract between 3.4% and 4.0% in 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project Russia’s GDP to fall 4.3% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. Panelists are becoming more pessimistic regarding Russia’s economic outlook and expect the economy to expand only 0.3% in 2016.

REAL SECTOR | Contraction in services eases while manufacturing worsensThe HSBC manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) slipped from 49.7 in February to 48.1 in March. The indicator continues to hover below the 50-threshold that separates expansion from contraction in business activity in the sector. According to HSBC, “The Russian manufacturing sector registered a modest deterioration in operating conditions during March as production and new business both recorded mild declines.”

HSBC also noted that March’s print reflected a deterioration in employment and that backlogs of work continued to fall. That said, respondents to the March survey pointed out that although input and output prices continued to rise, the increase was slower than in the first two months of the year.

Moreover, the services PMI improved in March, rising to 46.1 from 41.3 in February. Despite the improvement, the indicator remains below the 50-threshold, which indicates contraction in the sector. According to HSBC, respondents to the survey signaled that economic conditions are still challenging, which was highlighted by a sharp fall in new business. However, in certain sectors, which are affected by seasonal factors (namely hotels and restaurants), saw modest growth in March. In addition, Russian services providers signaled an increase in optimism that the recent downturn will be transitory, with expectations that business activity will improve in the coming months. HSBC noted that, “companies offered a more upbeat assessment of the future than at any time in the past seven months amid hope of a turnaround in wider economic performance over the coming year.

REAL SECTOR | Industrial production falls to two-year lowAccording to the Russian statistical office, industrial production contracted 1.6% year-on-year in February. The reading, which contrasted the 0.9% expansion tallied in January, exceeded the 0.6% fall the markets had expected and was mainly the result of a plunge in manufacturing output and a deterioration in growth in public utilities. February’s contraction represented the sharpest contraction in output since February 2013.

Gross Domestic Product | variation in %

Note: Annual variation of GDP in %.Source: Federal Statistical Office and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

%

Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)

Note: Markit HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). A reading above 50 indicates an expansion in business activity while a value below 50 points to a contraction.Source: Markit and HSBC.

40

45

50

55

Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15

Manufacturing PMI Services PMI

Industrial Production | annual variation in %

Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation of industrial production index in %.Source: Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) and FocusEconomics calculations.

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15

Year-on-year

Annual average

%



April 2015

A month-on-month comparison confirms the deterioration suggested by the annual data. Industrial production contracted a seasonally-adjusted 0.7% in February, which followed the 1.8% decrease observed in January.

As a result of the contraction seen in the annual data, annual average growth in industrial production fell 1.7% in January to 1.4% in February.

Economists polled by FocusEconomics expect industrial production to decrease 2.1% in 2015, which is down 0.6 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel expects industrial production to increase 1.1%.

OUTLOOK | Russian consumers become more pessimisticThe consumer confidence indicator elaborated by the Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) plummeted from minus 18% in the fourth quarter of 2014 to minus 32% in the first quarter. Q1’s result marked the lowest confidence level since Q2 2009.

According to Rosstat, all the components of the index registered substantial deteriorations in Q1 compared to Q4, notably households’ assessment of their current financial situation and the current overall economic situation. Expectations also weakened over the previous quarter, although the weakening was less pronounced this time. The survey also showed that consumers’ muted inflation expectations, low propensity to buy and increasing fears or rising unemployment.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect private consumption to contract 6.1% in 2015, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2016, panelists expect private consumption to expand a mild 0.6%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation jumps to highest level since 2002In March, consumer prices rose 1.2% over the previous month, which came in below the 2.2% increase observed in February. The result, which overshot the 1.0% increase the markets had expected, marked a second consecutive moderation in the monthly increase of consumer prices. March’s print reflected a slowdown in the increase of both food prices and non-food prices, mainly due to the gradual cooling of the economy, which is acting as a brake on inflation.

Despite the moderation on a monthly basis, annual headline inflation crept up from 16.7% in February to 16.9% in March, which slightly overshot the 16.8% increase the markets had anticipated and represented the highest level since February 2002. At the current rate, inflation remains well above the Russian Central Bank’s 4.5% inflation target.

Inflation is expected to reach its peak in the second quarter this year due to effects of the ruble’s sharp depreciation and Russian embargo on food imports from some Western countries.

Russia’s Finance Ministry expects that the inflation rate will reach a peak of more than 17% in the first half of this year before easing in the second half. The Ministry expects inflation to end 2015 below 12.0%. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see inflation ending 2015 at 13.0%, which is up 0.7 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, participants expect inflation to ease to 7.4%.

Consumer Confidence Index

Note: Consumer Confidence Index. Values above 0 indicate an optimisticoutlook while values below 0 indicate a pessimistic outlook.Source: Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat).

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

Q3 2011 Q1 2012 Q3 2012 Q1 2013 Q3 2013 Q1 2014 Q3 2014 Q1 2015

%

Inflation | Consumer Price Index

Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month variation of consumer price index in %.Source: Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat).

5.0

9.0

13.0

17.0

21.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15

Month-on-month (left scale)

Year-on-year (right scale)

%%



April 2015

MONETARY SECTOR | Central Bank cuts interest rates for second time this year, warns of impending contraction in economic activityThe recent stabilization in both the ruble and global oil prices prompted Russia’s Central Bank to cut the one-week repurchase rate by 100 basis points to 14.00% at its 13 March monetary policy meeting. March’s cut, which was in line with market expectations, is the second this year and came after the monetary authority’s emergency rate hike in December 2014, through which it attempted to stabilize the freefall of the ruble and mitigate a potential currency crisis. The Bank insisted that its decision is intended to provide a balance between lowering inflation and supporting economic growth and signaled that more rate cuts will continue.

In its statement, the Central Bank said that the economy had managed to grow somewhat at the end of 2014. However, the Bank pointed out that, “structural factors continue to exert a restraining influence in economic growth,” although it did recognize that the economic slowdown is becoming more cyclical. Monetary authorities warned that economic activity will contract in the coming months, which, will contribute to lower inflation. Economic activity is expected to deteriorate going forward mainly due to low oil prices—on average, oil prices are lower compared to last year—more difficult financial conditions for Russian borrowers, and the fact that Russian firms are increasingly finding foreign capital markets to be inaccessible. Consequently, investment is expected to deteriorate and drag on growth. However, an increase in exports will partially mitigate this drag as exports will become more competitive due to the depreciation of the ruble. The Bank went on to state that it expects GDP to contract between 3.5% and 4.0% in 2015.

Regarding consumer prices, the Central Bank stated that inflation remains high due to the ruble’s depreciation and imports restrictions. However, monetary authorities said that the impact of these supply-side factors will fade away in the coming months and will have been exhausted at the end of the year. Simultaneously, the Bank indicated that weaker growth in domestic demand and the fall in real wages will lead to downward pressures on inflation. The Bank foresees that inflation will reach its peak in Q2 2015 and that it will fall to 9.0% at the end of the year. It is expected to decline further to reach the Bank’s 4.0% inflation target in 2017. The next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for 30 April.

Commenting on the Central Bank’s decision, Vladimir Miklashevsky, Economist at Danske Bank, pointed out:

We welcome the decision to cut, as last year’s aggressive monetary policy has caused a massive monetary contraction and is likely to send the Russian economy deep into recession this year (we expect GDP to fall -7.9%), with a further -0.8% y/y fall in 2016. As we expect CPI to slow to 11% y/y by the end of 2015, we do not exclude the key rate falling under 10% in H2 15 as the central bank follows through on its new stance.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the Central Bank to continue easing the monetary policy throughout this year. They expect the refinancing rate to close 2015 at 11.39%. For 2016, the panel expects the rate to end the year at 7.89%.

Monetary Policy Rate | in %

Note: 1-Week Repo Rate in %.Source: Central Bank of the Russian Federation (CBR).

0

5

10

15

20

Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15

%



April 2015

EXTERNAL SECTOR | Decline in exports and imports moderates in February; Ural oil price falls again in MarchIn February, exports totaled USD 29.2 billion, which represented a 19.9% contraction over the same month last year. Although the reading marked the eighth contraction in the last nine months, the decrease was slower than the 30.5% plunge registered in January. Imports followed suit and decreased 35.4% annually in February, which, nonetheless marked a moderation in the pace of contraction compared to the 40.7% decreased registered in January.

The trade surplus, however, continued to improve. In February, the trade balance incurred a surplus of USD 13.6 billion, which was came in above the USD 12.3 billion observed in February 2014. In the 12-months up to February, the trade surplus widened slightly to USD 188 billion from the USD 186 billion recorded in the 12 months up to January.

Following a short-lived recovery in February, the price for Ural oil, which is Russia’s key export commodity, declined again. At the end of March, the Ural oil barrel traded at USD 52.4, which was 13.3% lower than at the end of February and lost half of its value in annual terms. Despite expectations that oil prices will remain low this year, Russian authorities had confirmed that the country will not reduce oil output. Meanwhile, the Russian Central Bank published its assessment of the country’s economic outlook, where it sees two scenarios. Under a baseline scenario, the Banks expects the price for Ural oil to average USD 80. Under a worst-case scenario, the Bank sees oil prices averaging USD 60.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect merchandise exports to plummet 23.0% in 2015 and to increase 8.6% in 2016. As a result of the imports ban imposed by the government in early August, imports are expected to contract 22.7% in 2015. In 2016, imports will rebound and increase 8.0%.

Merchandise Trade

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.Source: Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) and Ministry of Economic Development.

-16

-8

0

8

160

180

200

220

Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15

%

Trade Balance (USD bn, left scale)Exports (yoy, right scale)Imports (yoy, right scale)



April 2015

Economic Indicators | 2010 - 2019

Annual Data 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Real Sector Population (million) 143 143 143 144 144 144 144 144 144 144GDP per capita (USD) 10,673 13,192 14,289 15,340 14,099 8,892 10,035 11,224 12,298 13,765GDP (USD bn) 1,525 1,886 2,048 2,204 2,026 1,278 1,442 1,613 1,767 1,978GDP per capita (EUR) 8,046 9,574 10,873 10,883 9,736 8,313 9,501 10,214 10,697 11,590GDP (EUR bn) 1,150 1,369 1,558 1,564 1,399 1,195 1,365 1,468 1,537 1,665GDP (RUB bn) 46,309 55,967 62,176 66,190 71,406 79,323 86,145 93,406 100,756 108,270Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) 19.3 20.9 11.1 6.5 7.9 11.1 8.6 8.4 7.9 7.5Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 4.5 4.3 3.4 1.3 0.6 -4.3 0.3 1.6 2.1 2.2Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 5.5 6.8 7.8 5.0 1.3 -6.1 0.6 2.3 2.9 3.1Government Consumption (annual var. in %) -1.5 1.4 2.6 1.1 -0.1 - - - - -Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) 5.9 10.2 5.6 0.9 -2.0 -10.1 1.1 3.3 3.6 3.7Industrial Production (annual var. in %) 7.3 5.1 3.4 0.4 1.6 -2.1 1.1 2.2 2.3 2.4Retail Sales (annual var. in %) 6.2 6.9 6.5 3.9 2.5 -5.1 2.1 2.9 3.2 3.2Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 7.5 6.6 5.5 5.5 5.2 6.5 6.4 6.0 5.7 5.5Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -3.9 0.8 0.0 -0.7 -0.6 -3.1 -2.1 -1.0 -1.0 -0.9Public Debt (% of GDP) 9.0 9.5 10.5 11.4 14.4 13.6 14.0 14.5 14.6 14.9Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M2 in %) 31.1 22.3 11.9 14.6 2.3 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) 8.8 6.1 6.5 6.5 11.4 13.0 7.4 6.1 5.4 5.1Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 6.9 8.4 5.1 6.8 7.8 15.4 8.3 6.8 5.8 5.3Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %, eop) 16.7 12.0 5.1 3.7 5.9 - - - - -1-Week Repo Rate (%, eop) 5.00 5.25 5.50 5.50 17.00 11.39 7.89 7.29 6.65 5.8010-Year OFZ Bond Yield (%, eop) 7.44 8.50 6.85 7.71 14.09 - - - - -Stock Market (RTS variation in %) 22.5 -21.9 10.5 -5.5 -45.2 - - - - -Exchange Rate (RUB per USD, eop) 30.5 32.0 30.5 32.7 56.3 61.8 58.1 57.7 56.3 53.2Exchange Rate (RUB per USD, aop) 30.4 29.7 30.4 30.0 35.2 62.1 59.7 57.9 57.0 54.7Exchange Rate (RUB per EUR, eop) 41.0 41.7 40.3 45.3 72.6 64.2 62.1 65.1 66.0 64.1Exchange Rate (RUB per EUR, aop) 40.3 40.9 39.9 42.3 51.0 66.4 63.1 63.6 65.5 65.0External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 4.6 5.2 3.5 1.5 2.9 3.9 3.6 2.9 2.7 2.6Current Account Balance (USD bn) 70.3 98.8 71.3 34.1 59.5 50.1 51.3 46.8 47.8 51.4Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 147 197 192 182 190 145 159 174 190 209Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 393 515 527 523 498 383 416 453 494 539Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 246 319 336 341 308 238 257 279 303 329Merchandise Exports (annual variation in %) 32.1 31.3 2.3 -0.8 -4.9 -23.0 8.6 8.7 9.0 9.2Merchandise Imports (annual variation in %) 33.6 29.7 5.4 1.7 -9.8 -22.7 8.0 8.5 8.6 8.7International Reserves (USD bn) 479 499 538 510 385 327 311 340 355 362International Reserves (months of imports) 23.4 18.8 19.2 17.9 15.0 16.5 14.5 14.6 14.0 13.2External Debt (USD bn) 489 545 636 729 597 557 538 598 653 661External Debt (% of GDP) 32.1 28.9 31.1 33.1 29.5 43.6 37.3 37.1 37.0 33.4

Quarterly Data Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 0.9 0.4 -3.4 -4.6 -4.9 -3.9 -1.0 0.2 1.0 1.3Economic Growth (GDP, qoq variation in %) 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - -Consumer Conf. Index (0-point threshold) -7.0 -18.0 -32.0 - - - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) 8.0 11.4 16.9 15.9 15.0 13.0 7.9 7.5 7.5 7.41-Week Repo Rate (%, eop) 8.00 17.00 14.00 13.42 12.50 11.39 9.75 8.85 8.30 7.89Exchange Rate (RUB per USD, eop) 39.4 56.3 58.5 63.6 62.1 61.8 60.3 60.0 58.8 58.1Exchange Rate (RUB per EUR, eop) 50.0 72.6 62.4 67.0 64.4 64.2 63.2 63.4 62.6 62.1

Monthly Data Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15Industrial Production (ann. var. in %) 0.4 1.5 0.0 2.8 2.9 -0.4 3.9 0.9 -1.6 -HSBC Manufacturing PMI (50-threshold) 49.1 51.0 51.0 50.4 50.3 51.7 48.9 47.6 49.7 48.1HSBC Services PMI (50-threshold) 49.8 49.7 50.3 50.5 47.4 44.5 45.8 43.9 41.3 46.1Unemployment (% of active population) 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.8 -Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.8 1.3 2.6 3.9 2.2 1.2Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 7.8 7.5 7.6 8.0 8.3 9.1 11.4 15.0 16.7 16.9Exchange Rate (RUB per USD, eop) 33.6 35.7 36.3 39.4 43.4 47.7 56.3 68.7 60.7 58.5Exchange Rate (RUB per EUR, eop) 46.6 47.7 48.9 50.0 53.8 61.7 72.6 79.4 69.3 62.4Merchandise Exports (annual variation in %) -2.7 5.7 -2.5 -15.0 -4.4 -21.5 -22.5 -30.5 -19.9 -Ural oil price (USD per barrel, eop) 109.3 105.0 100.4 92.7 83.3 71.4 53.4 47.6 60.5 52.4



April 2015

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

< -8.0 -7.0 -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 > -1.0

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product

1 | Real GDP | 2000-2019 | var. in %

3 | GDP 2015 | evolution of forecasts

2 | Real GDP | Q1 12-Q4 16 | var. in % Real GDP growth in %

4 | GDP 2016 | evolution of forecasts

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.1 GDP, real annual variation in %. 2 Quarterly GDP (seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.3 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in

%. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016Alfa-Bank -5.0 2.0Allianz -4.0 -1.0BCS -3.4 1.0Berenberg -4.0 -1.5BofA Merrill Lynch -4.0 0.9Capital Economics -5.0 2.0Citigroup Global Mkts -3.0 1.5Credit Agricole -5.0 1.5Credit Suisse -3.6 0.4Danske Bank -7.9 -0.8DekaBank -3.0 1.0Deutsche Bank -5.2 -3.4EIU -4.0 0.3Frontier Strategy Group -5.0 0.5Goldman Sachs -2.7 1.4HSBC -3.5 -1.5ING -3.9 0.0JPMorgan -4.0 2.0KBC -5.0 -2.5KUKE S.A. -2.0 1.0Macro-Advisory Ltd. -4.0 0.0Nomura -4.4 0.8Nordea -3.9 0.2OTP Bank -4.2 -0.6Oxford Economics -6.3 0.4Raiffeisen Research -4.0 0.5Renaissance Capital -4.3 2.2Rosbank -3.5 0.5Scotiabank -5.0 0.5SEB -5.0 -1.0UBS -4.5 0.0UniCredit -4.5 -1.4VTB Capital -4.5 2.5WIIW -3.9 1.9SummaryMinimum -7.9 -3.4Maximum -2.0 2.5Median -4.0 0.5Consensus -4.3 0.3History30 days ago -4.2 0.560 days ago -4.1 0.690 days ago -2.1 0.7Additional ForecastsGovernment (Mar. 2015) -3.0 -IMF (Jan. 2015) -3.0 -1.0European Commission (Feb. 2015) -3.5 0.2

-10

-5

0

5

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

RussiaEastern EuropeWorld -6

-3

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3

6

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

RussiaEastern EuropeWorld

-6

-3

0

3

6

Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb

MaximumConsensusMinimum

-10

-5

0

5



5 | GDP 2015 | Panelist Distribution



April 2015

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

9 | Investment | evol. of forecasts

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10


2015 2016

8 | Investment | variation in %

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

2000 2005 2010 2015

RussiaEastern Europe

7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst

-10

-5

0

5


2015 2016

6 | Consumption | variation in %

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2000 2005 2010 2015


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Alfa-Bank -10.0 2.0 -2.0 2.0Allianz - - - -BCS - - -4.5 3.5Berenberg - - - -BofA Merrill Lynch -8.1 1.7 -7.9 3.8Capital Economics -6.0 2.0 -13.0 1.0Citigroup Global Mkts -7.0 1.0 -5.6 2.5Credit Agricole - - - -Credit Suisse -3.4 1.7 - -Danske Bank -5.5 -0.2 -12.0 -1.2DekaBank - - - -Deutsche Bank -6.8 -3.2 -11.5 -5.6EIU -6.6 1.0 -17.0 0.0Frontier Strategy Group -6.0 0.8 - -Goldman Sachs - - - -HSBC -6.0 -1.2 -12.5 -5.0ING - - - -JPMorgan -7.5 3.0 -9.5 6.5KBC - - - -KUKE S.A. -3.0 1.5 -6.0 2.0Macro-Advisory Ltd. - - -8.0 -2.0Nomura -6.2 0.9 - -Nordea -4.0 0.5 -9.0 0.5OTP Bank -5.0 -0.4 -8.0 -0.4Oxford Economics -8.7 -0.4 -18.0 0.1Raiffeisen Research -6.0 1.0 -8.0 0.0Renaissance Capital -3.9 2.5 -16.0 3.5Rosbank -5.7 -2.2 -6.5 -0.1Scotiabank - - - -SEB - - - -UBS -5.7 1.4 -10.0 -2.0UniCredit -5.2 -3.0 -13.0 5.0VTB Capital -8.5 2.0 -15.1 4.5WIIW -6.0 2.0 -10.0 5.0SummaryMinimum -10.0 -3.2 -18.0 -5.6Maximum -3.0 3.0 -2.0 6.5Median -6.0 1.0 -9.8 0.8Consensus -6.1 0.6 -10.1 1.1History30 days ago -5.7 0.8 -9.4 1.160 days ago -5.0 0.7 -8.3 1.290 days ago -2.8 1.0 -4.8 1.2

Consumption Investmentvariation in % variation in %

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.6 Private consumption, annual variation in %. 7 Private consumption, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.9 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Consumption and Investment



April 2015


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Alfa-Bank -2.0 1.0 - -Allianz - - - -BCS -4.1 2.5 - -Berenberg - - 7.0 8.0BofA Merrill Lynch - - 6.0 5.8Capital Economics - - 7.0 6.7Citigroup Global Mkts - - 7.0 6.5Credit Agricole - - - -Credit Suisse - - 7.0 6.8Danske Bank - - 8.1 7.4DekaBank - - - -Deutsche Bank -6.7 -2.1 6.0 5.8EIU -2.0 1.2 - -Frontier Strategy Group -4.0 0.9 6.8 6.9Goldman Sachs - - - -HSBC -0.4 -0.3 5.8 5.5ING - - - -JPMorgan - - 6.2 6.0KBC - - - -KUKE S.A. -2.0 1.8 6.5 6.2Macro-Advisory Ltd. 1.5 2.0 6.0 5.5Nomura - - - -Nordea - - 6.9 6.3OTP Bank - - - -Oxford Economics -5.6 -0.3 6.4 6.8Raiffeisen Research -4.0 1.0 7.0 7.0Renaissance Capital -3.8 2.0 5.7 5.3Rosbank 1.5 - 6.0 6.1Scotiabank - - - -SEB - - 6.1 6.3UBS 1.0 1.5 - -UniCredit - - 6.9 7.0VTB Capital - - - -WIIW 1.0 3.0 5.5 5.3SummaryMinimum -6.7 -2.1 5.5 5.3Maximum 1.5 3.0 8.1 8.0Median -2.0 1.2 6.4 6.3Consensus -2.1 1.1 6.5 6.4History30 days ago -1.5 1.3 6.4 6.360 days ago -1.5 1.4 6.3 6.290 days ago -0.3 1.5 5.9 5.8

Industry Unemploymentvariation in % % of active pop.

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.10 Industrial production, annual variation in %.11 Industrial production, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.12 Unemployment, % of active population.13 Unemployment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Industry and Unemployment 10 | Industry | variation in %

-12

-6

0

6

12

2000 2005 2010 2015


11 | Industry | evol. of forecasts

-4

-2

0

2

4


2015 2016

12 | Unemployment | % of active pop.

4

6

8

10

12

2000 2005 2010 2015


13 | Unemployment | evol. of forecasts

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0


2015 2016



April 2015


12

13

14

15


2015 2016

17 | Public Debt | evol. of forecasts

0

20

40

60

2000 2005 2010 2015


16 | Public Debt | % of GDP

-10

-5

0

5

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

Russia

Eastern Europe

14 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0


2015 2016

15 | Fiscal Balance | evol. of forecasts

Fiscal Balance and Public Debt

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Alfa-Bank - - - -Allianz -2.5 -3.0 - -BCS -3.1 -1.5 - -Berenberg -3.0 -3.1 - -BofA Merrill Lynch -4.0 -3.7 14.3 -Capital Economics -4.0 -2.5 14.5 16.0Citigroup Global Mkts -3.0 -1.5 12.7 13.5Credit Agricole - - - -Credit Suisse -4.3 -2.2 15.0 14.3Danske Bank - - - -DekaBank -2.1 -1.0 - -Deutsche Bank -2.1 -1.7 14.5 15.6EIU -3.8 -2.3 - -Frontier Strategy Group - - - -Goldman Sachs - - - -HSBC - - - -ING - - - -JPMorgan -2.7 -2.3 12.2 12.2KBC - - - -KUKE S.A. - - 14.0 14.3Macro-Advisory Ltd. -2.5 -1.5 11.0 12.0Nomura - - - -Nordea -3.0 -2.0 - -OTP Bank -4.0 -1.0 - -Oxford Economics - - 11.8 11.7Raiffeisen Research -3.2 -2.0 12.5 13.5Renaissance Capital -2.0 -0.5 11.2 11.5Rosbank -3.5 - 13.4 -Scotiabank - - - -SEB -3.5 -2.5 16.9 17.5UBS - - 13.5 13.7UniCredit - - 14.6 15.6VTB Capital -3.3 -1.8 - -WIIW -3.0 -3.0 15.0 15.0SummaryMinimum -4.3 -3.7 11.0 11.5Maximum -2.0 -0.5 16.9 17.5Median -3.1 -2.0 13.8 14.0Consensus -3.1 -2.1 13.6 14.0History30 days ago -2.4 -1.6 13.9 14.460 days ago -2.2 -1.6 13.9 13.790 days ago -1.2 -1.1 13.1 14.0

Fiscal Balance Public Debt % of GDP % of GDP

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Ministry of Finance. Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.14 General government balance as % of GDP. 15 General government balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months. 16 Public debt as % of GDP. 17 Public debt as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.



April 2015

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

< 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0 > 20.0

Monetary Sector | Inflation

18 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | in %

20 | Inflation 2015 | evolution of fcst

19 | Inflation | Q1 12-Q4 16 | in %

21 | Inflation 2016 | evolution of fcst

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.18 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop).19 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop).20 Inflation, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.21 Inflation, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.22 Inflation, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval

in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016Alfa-Bank 10.0 10.0Allianz 16.8 8.0BCS 14.6 7.0Berenberg 14.1 8.6BofA Merrill Lynch 11.5 5.1Capital Economics 15.0 8.0Citigroup Global Mkts 10.8 6.8Credit Agricole 16.5 7.0Credit Suisse 14.1 8.0Danske Bank 11.0 7.9DekaBank 14.3 5.2Deutsche Bank 12.5 7.9EIU 10.5 5.4Frontier Strategy Group 13.5 8.0Goldman Sachs - -HSBC 15.0 -ING 13.0 -JPMorgan 12.0 6.3KBC 12.0 8.0KUKE S.A. 10.8 8.0Macro-Advisory Ltd. 10.0 7.5Nomura 13.1 7.6Nordea 13.0 9.0OTP Bank - -Oxford Economics 10.8 6.2Raiffeisen Research 13.5 8.0Renaissance Capital 11.5 7.1Rosbank 13.2 6.9Scotiabank 12.5 7.9SEB 16.0 9.0UBS - -UniCredit 12.1 7.2VTB Capital 15.0 6.5WIIW - -SummaryMinimum 10.0 5.1Maximum 16.8 10.0Median 13.0 7.8Consensus 13.0 7.4History30 days ago 12.3 7.360 days ago 11.5 7.290 days ago 9.3 7.0Additional ForecastsCentral Bank Target 4.5 4.0IMF (Oct. 2014) 6.5 5.5

22 | Inflation 2015 | Panelist Distribution

Inflation | annual variation of consumer price index in %

0

4

8

12

16

20



0

5

10

15

20

25

2000 2005 2010 2015


0

4

8

12

16



3

6

9

12

15

18

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16




April 2015

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

< 5.00 7.00 9.00 11.00 13.00 15.00 17.00 19.00 > 19.00

Monetary Sector | Interest Rate

23 | Interest Rate | 2000 - 2019 | in %

25 | Int. Rate 2015 | evolution of fcst

24 | Interest Rate | Q1 12-Q4 16 | in %

26 | Int. Rate 2016 | evolution of fcst

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (CBR). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.23 Interest rate, 1-Week Repo Rate in % (eop).24 Quarterly interest rate, 1-Week Repo Rate in % (eop).25 Interest rate, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months. 26 Interest rate, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.27 Interest rate, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast

interval in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016Alfa-Bank - -Allianz - -BCS - -Berenberg - -BofA Merrill Lynch 9.00 7.00Capital Economics 12.00 9.00Citigroup Global Mkts 12.00 -Credit Agricole 9.00 8.00Credit Suisse 10.50 9.00Danske Bank 12.00 -DekaBank - -Deutsche Bank 13.00 9.00EIU - -Frontier Strategy Group - -Goldman Sachs 11.00 7.00HSBC 10.00 5.50ING 9.00 6.00JPMorgan 10.00 8.00KBC 14.00 -KUKE S.A. 14.00 12.00Macro-Advisory Ltd. 12.00 8.00Nomura 12.00 8.00Nordea 12.00 9.00OTP Bank 10.50 7.50Oxford Economics - -Raiffeisen Research 11.00 10.00Renaissance Capital 10.00 6.00Rosbank 13.00 7.00Scotiabank - -SEB - -UBS 13.50 7.00UniCredit 11.00 7.00VTB Capital - -WIIW - -SummaryMinimum 9.00 5.50Maximum 14.00 12.00Median 11.50 8.00Consensus 11.39 7.89History30 days ago 11.64 7.8260 days ago 12.28 7.9190 days ago 12.33 8.81

27 | Interest Rate 2015 | Panelist Distribution

Interest Rate | 1-Week Repo Rate

0

10

20

30



0

10

20

30

2000 2005 2010 2015


0

5

10

15



0

5

10

15

20

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16




April 2015

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

< 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0 > 100.0

Monetary Sector | Exchange Rate

28 | Exchange Rate | RUB per USD

30 | RUB per USD 2015 | evol. of fcst

29 | Exchange Rate | RUB per USD

31 | RUB per USD 2016 | evol. of fcst

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from Thomson Reuters. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.28 Exchange rate, RUB per USD (eop).29 Quarterly exchange rate, RUB per USD (eop).30 Exchange rate, evolution of 2015 forecast during the last 18 months.31 Exchange rate, evolution of 2016 forecast during the last 18 months.32 Exchange rate, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast

interval in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016Alfa-Bank 55.0 50.0Allianz 59.0 55.0BCS - -Berenberg - -BofA Merrill Lynch 55.0 55.0Capital Economics - -Citigroup Global Mkts 70.2 68.0Credit Agricole 55.0 53.0Credit Suisse 65.0 63.0Danske Bank 80.0 -DekaBank - -Deutsche Bank 55.6 -EIU 58.5 51.3Frontier Strategy Group - -Goldman Sachs 60.0 55.0HSBC 80.0 78.0ING 53.3 48.8JPMorgan 60.0 60.0KBC - -KUKE S.A. - -Macro-Advisory Ltd. - -Nomura 70.0 65.0Nordea 62.0 51.0OTP Bank - -Oxford Economics 57.1 48.3Raiffeisen Research 73.5 69.0Renaissance Capital 53.0 50.8Rosbank 65.4 57.0Scotiabank 60.0 55.0SEB 55.0 50.0UBS 57.4 61.6UniCredit 70.2 69.1VTB Capital 56.0 57.2WIIW 60.0 65.0SummaryMinimum 53.0 48.3Maximum 80.0 78.0Median 60.0 55.0Consensus 61.8 58.1History30 days ago 61.0 58.560 days ago 57.7 55.890 days ago 49.8 48.8

32 | RUB per USD 2015 | Panelist Distribution

Exchange Rate | RUB per USD

20

40

60

80

100



20

30

40

50

60

70

2000 2005 2010 2015

20

40

60

80

100



20

30

40

50

60

70

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16



April 2015

External Sector | Current Account and Trade Balance

140

160

180

200


2015 2016

36 | Trade Balance | evol. of forecasts

0

200

400

600

2000 2005 2010 2015

Trade BalanceImportsExports

35 | Trade Balance | USD bn

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2000 2005 2010 2015


33 | Current Account | % of GDP

0

1

2

3

4


2015 2016

34 | Current Account | evol. of fcst

Current Account and Trade Balance

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Alfa-Bank 9.8 4.6 - -Allianz 3.1 4.5 155 185BCS 3.8 3.6 96 128Berenberg - - - -BofA Merrill Lynch 3.8 2.8 85 87Capital Economics 2.0 2.0 - -Citigroup Global Mkts 4.1 3.5 180 175Credit Agricole 4.8 3.7 - -Credit Suisse 3.6 4.2 - -Danske Bank 0.4 0.0 - -DekaBank 3.2 4.1 - -Deutsche Bank 3.6 4.3 153 172EIU 3.2 4.3 154 198Frontier Strategy Group - - - -Goldman Sachs 4.9 2.0 - -HSBC 11.3 12.7 175 176ING - - - -JPMorgan 5.5 3.5 - -KBC - - - -KUKE S.A. 2.3 2.2 170 180Macro-Advisory Ltd. 2.0 2.0 150 145Nomura 2.7 2.2 - -Nordea 1.9 1.2 - -OTP Bank 0.2 0.0 - -Oxford Economics 4.4 6.9 141 192Raiffeisen Research 5.0 3.5 122 109Renaissance Capital 4.1 4.0 146 167Rosbank 1.7 - 91 -Scotiabank 3.0 3.5 - -SEB 3.2 2.5 - -UBS 5.7 5.7 - -UniCredit 4.3 1.7 196 173VTB Capital 7.4 5.9 174 180WIIW 2.7 2.0 132 121SummaryMinimum 0.2 0.0 85 87Maximum 11.3 12.7 196 198Median 3.6 3.5 152 173Consensus 3.9 3.6 145 159History30 days ago 3.7 3.2 147 15960 days ago 3.8 3.1 148 16090 days ago 3.4 2.6 187 183

Current Account Trade Balance% of GDP USD bn

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (CBR), the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) and the Ministry of Economic Development. See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.33 Current account balance, as % of GDP.34 Current account balance, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.35 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD. Rosstat and Ministry of Economic Development. 36 Trade balance, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.



April 2015

External Sector | Exports and Imports

Exports and Imports

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Alfa-Bank - - - -Allianz 405 450 250 265BCS 310 418 214 290Berenberg - - - -BofA Merrill Lynch 250 276 164 190Capital Economics - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts 520 536 341 361Credit Agricole - - - -Credit Suisse - - - -Danske Bank - - - -DekaBank - - - -Deutsche Bank 381 402 228 231EIU 351 417 197 219Frontier Strategy Group - - - -Goldman Sachs - - - -HSBC 358 375 182 199ING - - - -JPMorgan - - - -KBC - - - -KUKE S.A. 450 480 280 300Macro-Advisory Ltd. 530 515 380 370Nomura - - - -Nordea - - - -OTP Bank - - - -Oxford Economics 319 378 178 186Raiffeisen Research 324 327 202 218Renaissance Capital 380 453 234 286Rosbank 376 - 285 -Scotiabank - - - -SEB - - - -UBS - - - -UniCredit 458 444 262 271VTB Capital 368 412 194 233WIIW 352 363 220 242SummaryMinimum 250 276 164 186Maximum 530 536 380 370Median 372 417 224 242Consensus 383 416 238 257History30 days ago 391 420 246 26160 days ago 394 425 248 26590 days ago 469 486 282 303

Exports ImportsUSD bn USD bn

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) and the Ministry of Economic Development. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.37 Exports, annual variation in %. 38 Exports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.39 Imports, annual variation in %. 40 Imports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

200

300

400

500


2015 2016

40 | Imports | evol. of forecasts

-40

-20

0

20

40

2000 2005 2010 2015


39 | Imports | variation in %

-40

-20

0

20

40

2000 2005 2010 2015


37 | Exports | variation in %

300

400

500

600


2015 2016

38 | Exports | evolution of fcst



April 2015

External Sector | Additional forecasts

500

600

700

800

900


2015 2016

44 | External Debt | evol. of forecasts

20

30

40

50

60

70

2000 2005 2010 2015

Russia

Eastern Europe

43 | External Debt | % of GDP

5

10

15

20

25

30

2000 2005 2010 2015


41 | Int. Reserves | months of imports

300

400

500

600


2015 2016

42 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst

International Reserves and External Debt

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Alfa-Bank - - - -Allianz 270 270 530 510BCS - - - -Berenberg - - - -BofA Merrill Lynch 340 320 - -Capital Economics - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts 357 352 594 618Credit Agricole - - - -Credit Suisse - - 601 548Danske Bank - - - -DekaBank - - - -Deutsche Bank 350 346 520 470EIU - - - -Frontier Strategy Group - - - -Goldman Sachs - - - -HSBC 308 278 633 620ING - - - -JPMorgan 335 317 524 492KBC - - - -KUKE S.A. 375 400 620 650Macro-Advisory Ltd. 345 350 520 600Nomura 330 310 - -Nordea - - - -OTP Bank - - - -Oxford Economics 304 263 539 480Raiffeisen Research 308 210 595 421Renaissance Capital 330 315 521 510Rosbank 300 - 500 -Scotiabank - - - -SEB - - - -UBS - - - -UniCredit - - 545 532VTB Capital - - - -WIIW - - - -SummaryMinimum 270 210 500 421Maximum 375 400 633 650Median 330 316 539 521Consensus 327 311 557 538History30 days ago 345 334 565 55760 days ago 341 333 575 57390 days ago 392 399 628 622

Int. Reserves External DebtUSD bn USD bn

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (CBR). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.41 International reserves, months of imports. 42 International reserves, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.43 External debt as % of GDP. 44 External debt, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.



April 2015

Russia in the Region

Population | %-share in Eastern Europe GDP | %-share in Eastern Europe

Fact Sheet

Russia 45.6%

Turkey 18.1%

Poland 12.4%

Czech Republic

4.7%

Romania 4.5%

Other14.7%

Russia 38.8%

Turkey 20.9%

Ukraine 12.2%

Poland 10.4%

Romania 5.4%

Other12.3%

Ukraine5.7%

Other EU-27

29.8%

Germany12.1%Other Asia

ex-Japan7.4%

China16.3%

Other28.7%

Turkey5.2%

Ukraine5.2%

Other EU-27

25.4%

Netherlands14.7%Germany

6.7%

Italy6.2%

Other Asia ex-Japan

5.8%

China6.8%

Other24.1%

Other14.7%

Manufact. Products72.3%

Food12.9%Other

18.5%

Manufact. Products13.8%

Mineral Fuels67.6%

Trade Structure

Primary markets | share in %

Primary products | share in %

Economic Structure

GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %

Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

General Data

Economic Infrastructure

Political Data

Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings

Strengths Weaknesses

• Substantial oil and gas wealth • Dependence on oil exports• Persistent inflation• Financial system vulnerability

• Rich in natural resources • Weak democratic institutions• Rapidly ageing population

• Strong international reserves position

Energy (2012) Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 55,296Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 31,522Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 1,012Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 889Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 10,397Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 3,395CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 1,782

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: Ba1 NegativeS&P: BB+ NegativeFitch Ratings: BBB- Negative

Telecommunication (2013) Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 28.5Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 153Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 61.4Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 16.6

Transportation (2013) Airports: 1,218Railways (km): 87,157Roadways (km): 1,283,387Waterways (km): 102,000Chief Ports: Kaliningrad, St. Petersburg

Official name: Russian FederationCapital: Moscow (11.6m)Other cities: St. Petersburg (4.9m)

Novosibirsk (1.5m)Area (km2): 17,098,242Population (million, 2014 est.): 144Population density (per km2, 2014): 8.4Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 0.0Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 70.16Illiteracy rate (%, 2010): 0.3Language: RussianMeasures: Metric SystemTime: GMT+3 to GMT+12

President: Vladimir PutinLast elections: 4 March 2012Next elections: 2018Central Bank President: Elvira Nabiullina

0

20

40

60

80

1002004-06 2007-09 2010-12

Net Exports

Investment

GovernmentConsumption

PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002004-06 2007-09 2010-12

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

FOCUSECONOMICS


April 2015

Economic Release Calendar

(*) Preliminary estimate. (**) Approximate date.

Date Country Event14 April Poland Central Bank Meeting15 April Bulgaria March Consumer Prices15 April Croatia March Consumer Prices15 April Poland March Consumer Prices15 April Russia March Industrial Production (**)17 April Slovakia March Consumer Prices20 April Hungary April GKI-Erste Economic Sentiment Index (**)20 April Poland March Industrial Production (**)20 April Poland April Business Confidence (**)21 April Hungary Central Bank Meeting21 April Lithuania March Industrial Production21 April Russia March Merchandise Trade (**)22 April Turkey Central Bank Meeting22 April Turkey April Consumer Confidence23 April Ukraine March Industrial Production23 April Ukraine Central Bank Meeting24 April Czech Republic April Economic Sentiment24 April Poland March Retail Sales (**)24 April Turkey April Business Confidence29 April Croatia March Industrial Production30 April Estonia March Industrial Production30 April Latvia Q1 2015 National Accounts (*)30 April Lithuania Q1 2015 National Accounts (*)30 April Russia Central Bank Meeting30 April Slovenia April Consumer Prices1 May Czech Republic April HSBC Manufacturing PMI2 May Poland April HSBC Manufacturing PMI4 May Turkey April HSBC Manufacturing PMI4 May Turkey April Consumer Prices5 May Latvia March Industrial Production5 May Poland Central Bank Meeting5 May Russia April HSBC Manufacturing PMI6 May Romania Central Bank Meeting (*)6 May Russia April Consumer Prices (**)7 May Czech Republic March Industrial Production7 May Czech Republic Central Bank Meeting7 May Hungary March Industrial Production (*)7 May Russia April HSBC Services PMI 7 May Ukraine April Consumer Prices8 May Bulgaria March Industrial Production8 May Estonia April Consumer Prices8 May Hungary April Consumer Prices8 May Slovenia March Industrial Production

Calendar

FOCUSECONOMICS


April 2015

Economic Release Calendar

(*) Preliminary estimate. (**) Approximate date.

Date Country Event8 May Turkey March Industrial Production11 May Lithuania April Consumer Prices12 May Czech Republic April Consumer Prices12 May Estonia Q1 2015 National Accounts (*)12 May Latvia April Consumer Prices12 May Slovakia March Industrial Production12 May Turkey March Balance of Payments

FOCUSECONOMICS


April 2015

Notes and Statements

DISCLOSURE STATEMENT

The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Eastern Europe (“Forecast”) is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable. FocusEconomics and the participating panelists (“Information Providers”) do not guarantee that the information supplied in the Forecast is accurate, complete or timely. The Information Providers do not make any warranties with regard to the results obtained from the Forecast. The Information Providers are not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for any injuries or damages resulting from the use of this information, including incidental and consequential damages. Recipients should not regard the Forecast as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgement. The recommendations made in the Forecast may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. The Forecast has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation of any transaction or an offer to enter into any transaction. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice and the Information Providers are under no obligation to update the information contained herein.

PUBLICATION NOTE Consensus forecasts are mean averages of projections of economic forecasters surveyed by FocusEconomics for our monthly publication. Quarterly averages may not correspond to the annual figures due to different forecast panels.

The GDP-weighted averages for the regional aggregates refer to economies surveyed by FocusEconomics on a monthly basis, and include the following countries:

G7 (Group of Seven, 7 countries): Canada, Japan, United Kingdom and United States; France, Germany and Italy are also Euro area countries.Euro area (19 countries): Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain.Nordic Economies (5 countries): Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Iceland. Finland is also a Euro area member.Eastern Europe (14 countries): Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine; Estonia, Latvia, Slovakia and Slovenia are also Euro area members.MENA (Middle East and North Africa, 16 countries): Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates and Yemen.Asia-Pacific (17 countries): Australia, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam.Latin America (23 countries): Argentina, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Puero Rico, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay and Venezuela.Additional Countries: Switzerland and South Africa.

Weights are based on market exchange rates and reflect the latest forecasts on GDP growth, inflation and exchange rates.

BRIC (4 countries): Brazil, Russia, India, and China. The term was coined by Goldman Sachs in November 2001 and has since been widely adopted in investment and finance.COPYRIGHT NOTE © Copyright 2015 FocusEconomics S.L. Duplication, reproduction, transmission, publication or redistribution in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, or otherwise without prior written consent of FocusEconomics S.L. is strictly prohibited. Please cite source when quoting. All rights reserved under International Copyright Conventions.

The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Eastern Europe is a monthly publication of FocusEconomics. Communications to the Editor or FocusEconomics in general should be addressed as follows:

FocusEconomics S.L.Gran Via 657, E-08010 Barcelona, SpainE-mail: [email protected]

Notes

ASIA PACIFIC |

CENTRAL AMERICA |& CARIBBEAN |

EASTERN EUROPE|

EURO AREA |

LATIN AMERICA|

MAJOR ECONOMIES |

MIDDLE EAST| & NORTH AFRICA|

NORDIC ECONOMIES|

Brunei, China, Cambodia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam, Australia & New Zealand

Belize, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico and Trinidad & Tobago

Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey & Ukraine

Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia & Spain

Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay & Venezuela

G7 countries (United States, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, France, Eurozone, Germany & Italy); BRIC overview (Brazil, Russia, India & China); Switzerland

Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, Yemen; South Africa

Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast reports cover economic forecasts for over 1,600 unique indicators in 95 countries. Every monthly report includes the Consensus Forecast for each indicator covered. The Consensus Forecast, based on an average of the forecasts provided by the most reputable economic research authorities in the world, is the one number you can rely on to make important business decisions.

REGIONS & COUNTRIES COVERED

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