Focuseconomics Consensus Forecast Malaysia - April 2015

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CONSENSUSFORECAST

MALAYSIA 2CALENDAR 12NOTES 14

ContributorsARNE POHLMAN Chief EconomistARMANDO CICCARELLI Head of ResearchRICARDO ACEVES Senior EconomistRICARD TORNÉ Senior Economist

OLGA COSCODAN EconomistCARL KELLY EconomistTERESA KERSTING EconomistDIRINA MANÇELLARI Economist

ANGELA BOUZANISEconomistCECILIA SIMKIEVICH EconomistMIRIAM DOWD Editor

PUBLICATION DATE 24 March 2015FORECASTS COLLECTED 18 March - 23 March 2015

INFORMATION AVAILABLE Up to and including 23 March 2015NEXT EDITION 28 April 2015

Malaysia • April 2015


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FOCUSECONOMICS Malaysia

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 2

April 2015

Malaysia

REAL SECTOR | Growth in industrial production moderates in January

Industrial production increased 7.0% in January over the same month oflast year. The gure came in below the 7.4% increase tallied in Decemberand was in line with market expectations. January’s increase was driven byimprovements in the mining and electricity sectors. Conversely, growth inmanufacturing production slowed compared to the previous month.

On a monthly basis, industrial production decreased a seasonally-adjusted1.6% in January, which contrasted the 1.9% rise registered in the previousmonth. Despite January’s deterioration, annual average growth in industrialproduction edged up from 5.1% in December to 5.4% in January, whichmarked the highest reading since February 2011.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project that industrialproduction will grow 3.8% in 2015, which is down 0.2 percentage points fromlast month’s projection. In 2016, the panel expects industrial output to expand

4.4%.

The government sees GDP growing between 4.5% and 5.5% in 2015.FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to grow 4.9% in

Outlook moderates

LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages

Cecilia SimkievichEconomist

Malaysia

2011-13 2014-16 2017-19Population (million): 29.5 31.0 32.6GDP (USD bn): 304 333 445GDP per capita (USD): 10,385 10,668 13,640GDP growth (%): 5.2 5.3 5.1Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -4.4 -3.3 -2.7Public Debt (% of GDP): 53.2 53.1 50.7Inflation (%): 2.3 3.0 2.8Current Account (% of GDP): 7.1 3.8 3.2External Debt (% of GDP): 53.3 65.4 53.5

The Malaysian economy recorded a solid 6.0% expansion last year,accelerating from the 4.7% increase tallied in the previous year. Recentdata suggest that the economy has lost some momentum in the rstmonths of the year. Industrial production moderated in January, whereasexports posted the worst performance in almost two years. Lookingforward, low oil prices will continue to weigh on the country’s balance ofpayments as well as on its scal accounts. Moreover, the governmentrecently decided to increase its 2015 scal de cit target from 3.0% ofGDP to 3.2% of GDP on the expectation of lower oil revenues.

The Malaysian economy is expected to post healthy growth again thisyear, although it will decelerate from the strong expansion recorded in2014. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP toexpand 4.9% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from lastmonth’s forecast. For 2016, the panel sees GDP growing 5.1%.

In ation fell from 1.0% in January to 0.1% in February, which markedan over- ve-year low. In ationary pressures are expected to increaseafter the Goods and Services Tax (GST) is introduced in April. At its5 March meeting, the Central Bank decided to maintain the overnight

rate unchanged at 3.25%. The decision came amid ongoing currencyweakness and the imminent normalization of the U.S. Federal Reserve’smonetary policy. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expectin ation to average 3.0% both in 2015 and 2016.

-6

0

6

12

Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15

Year-on-year

Annual average

%

Industrial Production | variation in %

Note: Annual changes of industrial production index and annual average growthrate in %.Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia (DSM).


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April 2015

2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. For2016, the panel foresees the economy growing 5.1%.

MONETARY SECTOR | In ation drops to over- ve-year low in February

Consumer prices declined 0.6% in February over the previous month, whichmarked a less-pronounced drop than the 1.1% fall tallied in January. As in theprevious month, February’s result was mainly driven by a sharp fall in pricesfor transport. Prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages as well as for non-durable goods also dropped compared to the previous month. Conversely,prices for housing and healthcare were higher than in January.

Annual in ation dropped from 1.0% in January to 0.1% in February, whichmarked an over- ve-year low. The result slightly undershot the 0.2% thatthe market had expected. As a result of February’s sharp slowdown, annualaverage in ation edged down from January’s 2.9% to 2.7% in February.

The government projects in ation to range between 2.5% and 3.5% in2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect in ation to

average 3.0% in 2015, which is down 0.5 percentage points from last month’sprojection. For 2016, the panel sees in ation also averaging 3.0%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Central Bank holds rate steady at 3.25%

At its 5 March monetary policy meeting, the Central Bank decided to leave theOvernight Policy Rate (OPR) unchanged at 3.25%. The decision was in linewith market expectations.

Bank Negara Malaysia stated that global economic growth continues toexpand at a moderate pace in spite of varying performance across countries.Downside risks to growth will likely emerge from the weakening of major

economies such as China and Japan. On the domestic front, Malaysia’seconomic growth continues to be supported mainly by domestic demand,while exports moderated in the last quarter of 2014. The Bank pointed out that,“going forward, domestic demand will remain as a key driver of growth. Whilethe introduction of the Goods and Services Tax and the lower earnings in thecommodity sector are expected to have some impact on private consumption,household spending will continue to be supported by the steady increase inincome and employment.”

Consumer prices declined further in January and the Central Bank recognizedthat in ation will likely remain low in the rst quarter of the year. The Bankstated that in ation is likely to trend higher in the subsequent quarters as,

“lower fuel prices will partially offset other domestic cost factors.” However,prices are expected to remain below their historical average throughout theyear.

Finally, the Bank remarked that, “the current stance of monetary policy remainsaccommodative and is assessed to be appropriate given the developments inmonetary and nancial conditions.” The Bank signaled that it would remainvigilant regarding external and domestic developments to ensure that itsmonetary policy stance is consistent with any changes in the economy’sgrowth outlook

Panelists expect the monetary policy rate to end this year at 3.24%. The panelexpects the policy rate to end 2016 at 3.32%.

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15

Month-on-month (left scale)

Year-on-year (right scale)

%%

In ation | Consumer Price Index

Note: Annual and monthly variation of consumer price index in %.Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia (DSM).

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15

%

Monetary Policy Rate | in %

Note: Overnight Policy Rate in %.Source: Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM).


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April 2015

MONETARY SECTOR | Malaysian ringgit continues to weaken in 2015,hits multi-year low in March

The Malaysian ringgit (MYR) hit a multi-year low of 3.71 MYR per USD on 16March, which was 3.5% weaker than on the same day of the previous monthand 13.0% weaker on an annual basis. Moreover, the ringgit was the secondpoorest performing Asian currency in Q1 2015 after the Indonesian rupiah .The MYR has depreciated 6.0% against the USD so far this year, and theexpected upcoming hike in the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rates will likelylead the currency to weaken further in the coming months.

The depreciation of the Malaysian ringgit began in the second half of 2014when global prices for oil started to decline. As a net oil exporter, Malaysiahas particularly felt the impact of the fall in energy prices. Exports deceleratedmarkedly throughout 2014 and that led to a signi cant deterioration in externalaccounts, which translated into a weaker ringgit . On top of this, the MYR hasalso been affected by the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, resulting from solideconomic growth in the U.S. Against that background, the Malaysian ringgit has been losing value uninterruptedly since August last year: from a peak of

3.16 MYR per USD on 22 August 2014, the currency depreciated 17.0% to alow of 3.71 MYR per USD on 16 March 2015.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the Malaysian ringgit to end 2015 at 3.60 MYR per USD. The panel sees the Malaysian currencyclosing 2016 at 3.54 MYR per USD.

EXTERNAL SECTOR | Exports continue to deteriorate in JanuaryExports declined 8.2% in annual terms in January, which was down fromthe 5.0% contraction tallied in December. The result undershot marketexpectations and marked the lowest reading in almost two years. According

to the Department of Statistics, the deterioration in exports was mainly drivenby a decline in shipments of re ned petroleum products, lique ed natural gas,rubber, and palm oil. Conversely, exports of electronic products increasedcompared to the same month of last year. Meanwhile, imports tumbled from a3.6% drop in December to a 12.5% contraction in January, which marked thelowest reading in over ve years.

The trade balance fell from a USD 2.6 billion surplus in December to a USD2.5 billion surplus in January (January 2014: USD 1.9 billion). The 12-monthmoving sum of the trade balance ticked up from a USD 25.3 billion surplus inDecember to a USD 25.9 billion surplus in January.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect exports to drop 1.3%in USD terms in 2015. Imports are expected to drop 1.2% in 2015, pushing thetrade surplus to USD 24.8 billion. For 2016, the panel expects exports to grow7.3%. With imports expected to rise 7.0% in 2016, panelists see the tradesurplus widening to USD 27.3 billion.

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20

25

30

35

Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15

Trade balance (USD bn, left scale)

Exports (yoy, right scale)

Imports (yoy, right scale)

%

Merchandise Trade

Note: 12-month trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-monthsum of exports and imports.Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia (DSM) and FocusEconomicscalculations.

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15

Exchange Rate | USD per MYR

Note: Daily spot of U.S. dollar (USD) against Malaysian ringgit (MYR).Source: Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM).


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April 2015

Economic Indicators | 2010 - 2019

Annual Data 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Real Sector Population (million) 28.6 29.1 29.5 29.9 30.5 31.0 31.5 32.0 32.6 33.1GDP per capita (USD) 8,176 9,984 10,555 10,616 10,566 10,337 11,103 12,263 13,721 14,935GDP (USD bn) 247 291 306 314 329 320 350 393 447 495GDP (MYR bn) 797 885 942 987 1,070 1,161 1,255 1,355 1,462 1,573Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) 11.8 11.0 6.4 4.8 8.4 7.9 8.0 8.0 7.9 7.6

Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 7.4 5.2 5.6 4.7 6.0 4.9 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.0Private Consumption (ann. var. in %) 6.9 6.9 8.2 7.2 7.1 5.8 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.5Fixed Investment (ann. var. in %) 11.9 6.3 19.2 8.5 4.7 4.8 5.4 5.7 5.9 6.2Industrial Production (annual var. in %) 7.2 1.2 2.8 3.4 5.1 3.8 4.4 4.7 4.7 4.9Unemployment (% of active population, eop) 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -5.4 -4.8 -4.5 -3.9 -3.5 -3.4 -3.0 -2.9 -2.7 -2.6Public Debt (% of GDP) 51.1 51.5 53.3 54.7 53.7 53.0 52.5 51.6 50.8 49.8Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M2 in %) 7.2 14.7 9.7 7.7 7.5 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) 2.0 3.0 1.3 3.2 2.7 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 1.6 3.2 1.7 2.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.7Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %, aop) 5.6 9.0 0.0 -2.0 1.2 - - - - -Overnight Policy Rate (%, eop) 2.75 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.25 3.24 3.32 3.43 3.66 3.913-Month KLIBOR (%, eop) 2.96 3.19 3.16 3.19 3.72 3.69 3.80 4.13 4.38 4.3910-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 4.04 3.70 3.50 4.15 4.14 4.13 4.15 4.45 4.63 4.72Stock Market (var. of FTSE BM KLCI in %) 42.4 20.7 0.1 7.0 10.8 - - - - -Exchange Rate (MYR per USD, eop) 3.08 3.17 3.06 3.28 3.50 3.60 3.54 3.32 3.19 3.14Exchange Rate (MYR per USD, aop) 3.22 3.06 3.09 3.15 3.27 3.61 3.57 3.43 3.25 3.16External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 10.9 11.6 5.8 4.0 4.6 3.1 3.7 3.6 3.0 2.9Current Account Balance (USD bn) 26.9 33.7 17.8 12.6 15.2 10.1 12.9 14.0 13.5 14.2Trade Balance (USD bn) 34.1 40.5 31.1 22.4 25.3 24.8 27.3 29.3 30.8 32.9Exports (USD bn) 199 228 228 229 234 231 248 267 287 310Imports (USD bn) 165 187 197 206 209 206 221 237 256 277Exports (annual variation in %) 26.5 14.4 0.0 0.4 2.5 -1.3 7.3 7.5 7.7 8.0Imports (annual variation in %) 33.3 13.5 5.0 4.9 1.4 -1.2 7.0 7.4 8.0 8.2International Reserves (USD bn) 107 134 140 135 116 113 117 117 125 129International Reserves (months of imports) 7.8 8.6 8.5 7.9 6.7 6.6 6.4 5.9 5.8 5.6External Debt (USD bn) 73.6 81.2 196.9 212.7 213.0 217.9 221.1 223.8 238.4 248.1External Debt (% of GDP) 29.8 27.9 64.3 67.8 64.8 68.1 63.2 57.0 53.3 50.1

Quarterly Data Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 5.6 5.8 5.4 5.1 4.9 4.7 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.2Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 3.0 2.8 2.1 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.9 2.8 2.5 2.5Overnight Policy Rate (%, eop) 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.24 3.24 3.24 3.29 3.30 3.30 3.323-Month KLIBOR (%, eop) 3.68 3.72 3.71 3.71 3.71 3.69 3.78 3.80 3.80 3.8010-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 3.91 4.14 4.13 4.13 4.13 4.13 4.13 4.13 4.14 4.15Exchange Rate (MYR per USD, eop) 3.28 3.50 3.67 3.60 3.60 3.60 3.59 3.56 3.55 3.54Trade Balance (USD bn) 5.3 6.4 6.7 5.8 5.4 2.6 5.0 6.0 6.5 6.0Exports (USD bn) 60.1 58.7 54.3 56.3 57.1 56.1 56.0 62.0 64.0 65.0Imports (USD bn) 54.7 52.3 47.6 50.5 51.7 53.5 51.0 56.0 57.5 59.0Exports (annual variation in %) 5.4 -3.9 -4.5 -5.5 -4.9 -4.5 3.1 10.1 12.1 15.9Imports (annual variation in %) 6.6 0.1 -2.7 -6.2 -5.5 2.4 7.2 10.9 11.2 10.2

Monthly Data May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 5.9 7.0 0.6 6.5 5.4 5.1 4.8 7.4 7.0 -Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 -0.1 -1.1 -0.6Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.3 2.6 2.8 3.0 2.7 1.0 0.1Exchange Rate (MYR per USD, eop) 3.22 3.21 3.20 3.15 3.28 3.29 3.38 3.50 3.63 3.61Trade Balance (USD bn) 1.7 1.3 1.1 1.2 2.9 0.4 3.3 2.6 2.5 -Exports (annual variation in %) 8.4 4.6 1.1 5.7 3.9 -6.1 -2.3 -5.0 -8.2 -Imports (annual variation in %) 4.1 5.5 -0.4 11.7 3.0 5.9 -4.2 -3.6 -12.5 -

The Central Bank (BNM, Bank Negara Malaysia ) introduceda new de nition for external debt in Q1 2014. Historical dataare only available starting in 2012.


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April 2015

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product

1 | Real GDP | 2000 - 2019 | var. in %

3 | GDP 2015 | evolution of forecasts

5 | Consumption | variation in %

7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst

2 | Real GDP | Q1 12-Q4 16 | var. in % Real GDP growth in %

4 | GDP 2016 | evolution of forecasts

6 | Investment | variation in %

8 | Investment | evolution of forecasts

Notes and sources

General:Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. Allreal sector data are from the Department of Statistics Malaysia (DSM) and

the Central Bank (BNM, Bank Negara Malaysia ). See below for details.Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: DSM.2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.

Source: DSM.3 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 Private consumption, annual variation in %. Source: DSM.6 Gross xed investment, annual variation in %. Source: DSM.7 Private consumption, change in 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last

18 months.8 Gross xed investment, change in 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the

last 18 months.9 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: DSM.10 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: DSM.11 Balance of central government as % of GDP. Source: BNM.12 Industrial production, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the

last 18 months.13 Unemployment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18

months.14 Balance of central government as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and

2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 ANZ 4.5 5.1BofA Merrill Lynch 4.6 5.2Capital Economics 5.0 4.5Citigroup Global Mkts 5.0 5.0

Credit Agricole 5.5 5.5Credit Suisse 4.4 5.4Daiwa 5.0 5.5DBS Bank 4.9 5.0Deutsche Bank 4.5 4.5EIU 5.5 5.6Frontier Strategy Group 4.9 4.8Goldman Sachs 5.1 5.1HSBC 4.8 5.5ING 5.0 5.0JPMorgan 4.6 5.0Kenanga Investment Bank 5.1 -Maybank Investment Bank 5.0 -MIER 5.0 5.8Morgan Stanley 5.3 5.4Nomura 4.7 4.3OCBC Bank 4.8 -Oxford Economics 4.8 4.1RHB Research Institute 5.0 5.5Standard Chartered 5.0 5.3UBS 4.4 4.3United Overseas Bank 4.7 5.3SummaryMinimum 4.4 4.1Maximum 5.5 5.8Median 5.0 5.1Consensus 4.9 5.1History30 days ago 5.0 5.0

60 days ago 5.0 5.190 days ago 5.1 5.1Additional ForecastsGovernment (Jan. 2015) 4.5 - 5.5 -IMF (Oct. 2014) 5.2 5.0 ADB (Dec. 2014) 5.3 -

-5

0

5

10

15

2000 2005 2010 2015

Malaysia Asia (ex Japan)World

0

3

6

9

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

Malaysia Asia (ex Japan)World

3

4

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6

7

Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb

MaximumConsensus

Minimum

3

4

5

6

7


Maximum

ConsensusMinimum

5.4

5.6

5.8

6.0


2015 2016

0

5

10

15

2000 2005 2010 2015

Malaysia

Asia (ex Japan)

-10

0

10

20

30

2000 2005 2010 2015

Malaysia Asia (ex Japan)

4

5

6

7

8


2015 2016


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April 2015

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 ANZ - - - - - - - - - -BofA Merrill Lynch 5.2 5.7 2.9 4.4 - - 2.8 2.8 -3.8 -3.5Capital Economics 5.5 5.0 5.0 5.0 - - 3.0 3.0 -3.2 -3.2Citigroup Global Mkts 5.9 6.3 - - - - 2.9 3.0 -3.2 -2.5Credit Agricole - - - - - - - - - -Credit Suisse 5.5 5.8 1.7 3.6 - - - - -3.2 -3.0Daiwa - - - - - - - - -3.3 -3.0DBS Bank 6.0 6.4 4.4 5.6 - - - - -3.2 -2.8Deutsche Bank 4.2 6.2 5.2 6.2 1.6 2.4 3.1 3.0 -3.4 -2.8EIU 6.8 6.5 5.4 6.0 5.0 5.2 2.8 2.8 -4.7 -3.9Frontier Strategy Group 6.3 6.2 - - 4.1 4.0 3.1 3.1 - -Goldman Sachs - - - - - - - - - -HSBC 6.3 5.2 4.8 6.4 5.5 5.5 3.0 3.3 -3.4 -3.0ING - - - - - - - - - -JPMorgan - - - - - - - - -3.2 -Kenanga Investment Bank 6.2 - - - 3.3 - 3.1 - -3.5 -Maybank Investment Bank 6.3 - 7.2 - - - 3.0 - -3.3 -MIER 6.3 6.4 7.8 8.3 - - 2.8 2.8 - -Morgan Stanley 6.2 6.5 4.5 5.5 - - - - -3.0 -2.5

Nomura 5.9 5.6 4.9 3.5 - - 3.0 3.0 -3.0 -2.5OCBC Bank 5.8 - 6.3 - - - - - - -Oxford Economics 4.6 4.4 3.7 4.0 4.0 4.1 3.0 3.0 -3.3 -3.2RHB Research Institute 5.2 5.3 5.9 8.6 4.7 5.7 3.0 3.0 -3.2 -2.5Standard Chartered - - - - - - - - - -UBS 5.6 4.8 2.1 2.5 2.6 4.1 - - -3.6 -4.1United Overseas Bank - - - - - - 2.9 2.7 -3.2 -2.7SummaryMinimum 4.2 4.4 1.7 2.5 1.6 2.4 2.8 2.7 -4.7 -4.1Maximum 6.8 6.5 7.8 8.6 5.5 5.7 3.1 3.3 -3.0 -2.5Median 5.9 5.8 4.9 5.5 4.0 4.1 3.0 3.0 -3.2 -3.0Consensus 5.8 5.8 4.8 5.4 3.8 4.4 3.0 3.0 -3.4 -3.0History30 days ago 5.8 5.6 4.5 5.2 4.0 4.4 2.9 3.0 -3.3 -2.9

60 days ago 5.9 5.6 5.4 5.9 4.0 4.4 2.9 3.0 -3.1 -2.890 days ago 5.6 5.6 5.8 6.4 4.1 4.3 3.0 3.0 -3.1 -2.8

Consumption variation in %

Investment variation in %

Fiscal Balance % of GDP

Industry variation in %

Unemployment % of active pop.

12 | Industry | evolution of forecasts

9 | Industry | variation in %

13 | Unemployment | evolution of fcst

10 | Unemployment | % of active pop.

14 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst

11 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5


2015 2016

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0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

Malaysia

Asia (ex Japan)

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.2


2015 2016

2

3

4

5

2000 2005 2010 2015

Malaysia

Asia (ex Japan)

-3.9

-3.6

-3.3

-3.0

-2.7


2015 2016

-9

-6

-3

0

3

2000 2005 2010 2015

Malaysia

Asia (ex Japan)


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April 2015

Monetary Sector | In ation

In ation | annual avg. var. of consumer price index in %

Notes and sources

General:Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. Allmonetary sector data are from the Department of Statistics Malaysia(DSM) and the Central Bank (BNM, Bank Negara Malaysia ). See below fordetails. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 15 In ation, annual average variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %.

Source: DSM.16 In ation, annual variation of quarterly average consumer price index

(CPI) in %. Source: DSM.17 In ation, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.18 In ation, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.19 Producer price index, annual variation in % (aop). 2000-2014. Source:

DSM.20 Money, annual variation of M2 in %. 2000-2014. Source: BNM.21 Daily MSCI Price index in USD. From Jan. 2010 until end of previous

week. Source: MSCI Barra.22 Daily index levels, FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI. From Jan. 2010 until

end of previous week. Source: FTSE Bursa Malaysia.

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 ANZ 3.4 3.0BofA Merrill Lynch 2.3 3.0Capital Economics 3.5 3.0Citigroup Global Mkts 2.1 3.0Credit Agricole 4.4 3.1Credit Suisse 2.0 3.5Daiwa 4.5 2.7DBS Bank 3.4 3.0Deutsche Bank 1.4 2.5EIU 3.2 2.8Frontier Strategy Group 3.3 3.0Goldman Sachs 3.3 3.1HSBC 2.9 3.1ING 3.5 2.5JPMorgan 2.8 -Kenanga Investment Bank 2.7 -Maybank Investment Bank 4.5 -MIER 3.5 3.0Morgan Stanley 1.7 3.2Nomura 2.5 3.5OCBC Bank 3.3 -Oxford Economics 2.4 3.4RHB Research Institute 3.6 2.3Standard Chartered 4.0 3.0UBS 2.1 3.2United Overseas Bank 2.1 2.6SummaryMinimum 1.4 2.3Maximum 4.5 3.5Median 3.3 3.0Consensus 3.0 3.0History30 days ago 3.5 2.9

60 days ago 3.8 3.190 days ago 4.0 3.1Additional ForecastsGovernment (Jan. 2015) 2.5 - 3.5 -IMF (Oct. 2014) 4.1 3.5 ADB (Dec. 2014) 3.6 -

15 | In ation | 2000 - 2019 | in %

17 | In ation 2015 | evolution of fcst

19 | Producer Prices | variation in %

21 | MSCI Price Index

16 | In ation | Q1 12-Q4 16 | in %

18 | In ation 2016 | evolution of fcst

20 | Money | variation in %

22 | Stock Market | FTSE BM KLCI

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

450

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700

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2000 2005 2010 2015


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2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

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Minimum

1

2

3

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Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

Malaysia

Asia (ex Japan)


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April 2015

Monetary Sector | Interest Rate and Exchange Rate

Policy Interest Rate and Exchange Rate

Notes and sources

General:Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All

monetary and external sector data are from the Department of StatisticsMalaysia (DSM) and the Central Bank (BNM, Bank Negara Malaysia ).See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics ConsensusForecast. 23 Interest rate, Central Bank Overnight Policy Rate in % (eop). Source:

BNM.24 Quarterly interest rate, Central Bank Overnight Policy Rate in % (eop).

Source: BNM.25 Interest rate, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.26 Interest rate, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.27 Exchange rate, MYR per USD (eop). Source: Thomson Reuters.28 Quarterly exchange rate, MYR per USD (eop). Source: Thomson Reuters.29 Exchange rate, evolution of 2015 forecast during the last 18 months.30 Exchange rate, evolution of 2016 forecast during the last 18 months.31 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: DSM.32 Trade balance, imports and exports, in USD bn. Source: BNM.33 International reserves, months of imports. Source: BNM.34 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016

forecasts during the last 18 months.35 Exports, annual variation in %. Source: DSM.36 International reserves, in USD bn, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts

during the last 18 months.

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 ANZ 3.25 3.50 3.60 3.65BofA Merrill Lynch 3.00 3.00 3.91 3.88

Capital Economics 3.25 3.50 3.40 3.30Citigroup Global Mkts 3.25 3.50 3.69 3.61Credit Agricole 4.00 4.00 3.49 3.43Credit Suisse 3.25 3.50 3.67 3.67Daiwa 3.25 3.50 3.55 3.50DBS Bank 3.25 - 3.71 -Deutsche Bank 3.25 3.25 3.80 3.70EIU - - 3.35 3.18Frontier Strategy Group - - - -Goldman Sachs 3.25 3.25 3.70 3.70HSBC 3.00 3.00 3.75 3.80ING 3.25 3.25 3.84 3.88JPMorgan 3.00 - 3.70 -Kenanga Investment Bank 3.25 - 3.57 -Maybank Investment Bank 3.50 - 3.45 -MIER - - 3.57 -Morgan Stanley 2.75 2.75 3.53 3.40Nomura 3.25 3.25 3.50 3.47OCBC Bank - - - -Oxford Economics - - 3.47 3.29RHB Research Institute 3.25 3.50 3.35 3.20Standard Chartered 3.50 - 3.55 -UBS 3.00 3.00 3.50 3.55United Overseas Bank 3.25 - 3.80 -SummaryMinimum 2.75 2.75 3.35 3.18Maximum 4.00 4.00 3.91 3.88Median 3.25 3.25 3.57 3.55Consensus 3.24 3.32 3.60 3.54History30 days ago 3.28 3.38 3.54 3.4960 days ago 3.35 3.41 3.48 3.4090 days ago 3.39 3.43 3.37 3.35

Interest Rate Exchange Rate% MYR per USD

23 | Interest Rate | 2000 - 2019 | in %

25 | Int. Rate 2015 | evolution of fcst

27 | Exchange Rate | MYR per USD

29 | MYR per USD 2015 | evol. of fcst

24 | Interest Rate | Q1 12-Q4 16 | in %

26 | Int. Rate 2016 | evolution of fcst

28 | Exchange Rate | MYR per USD

30 | MYR per USD 2016 | evol. of fcst

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0


MaximumConsensus

Minimum

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0


MaximumConsensus

Minimum

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5


MaximumConsensus

Minimum

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

2.9

3.1

3.3

3.5

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4.0

2000 2005 2010 2015

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

2000 2005 2010 2015

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5


MaximumConsensus

Minimum


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April 2015

External Sector | Current Account, Trade and International Reserves

34 | Current Account | evol. of fcst 35 | Exports | annual variation in % 36 | Int. Reserves | evol. of fcst

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 ANZ 1.8 4.0 - - - - - - - -BofA Merrill Lynch 3.5 5.5 18.0 20.0 232 248 214 228 118 130Capital Economics - - - - - - - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts 3.5 5.5 - - - - - - 118 122Credit Agricole 4.8 4.4 - - - - - - - -Credit Suisse 1.9 3.4 - - - - - - 105 115Daiwa 4.2 4.5 24.9 25.3 246 261 221 235 - -DBS Bank 5.0 5.0 28.0 34.0 218 226 190 192 111 119Deutsche Bank 3.3 1.9 - - - - - - 112 98EIU 3.8 4.0 36.1 38.3 245 262 209 224 126 128Frontier Strategy Group - - - - - - - - - -Goldman Sachs 4.3 4.2 - - - - - - - -HSBC 2.7 3.5 - - - - - - 114 114ING - - - - - - - - - -JPMorgan 1.9 - 28.2 - 229 - 200 - 110 -Kenanga Investment Bank 2.7 - 18.0 - 217 - 199 - - -Maybank Investment Bank 4.7 - 22.4 - 233 - 210 - - -MIER - - 22.5 20.6 239 247 217 226 - -Morgan Stanley - - 39.0 41.0 231 246 192 205 - -

Nomura 3.3 2.7 - - - - - - - -OCBC Bank - - - - - - - - - -Oxford Economics 3.5 3.7 - - - - - - 111 121RHB Research Institute 2.3 2.1 19.4 19.3 236 267 216 248 94 103Standard Chartered 2.5 4.5 - - - - - - - -UBS -0.5 0.0 16.5 19.8 218 229 202 209 120 120United Overseas Bank 3.6 - - - - - - - - -SummaryMinimum -0.5 0.0 16.5 19.3 217 226 190 192 94 98Maximum 5.0 5.5 39.0 41.0 246 267 221 248 126 130Median 3.4 4.0 22.5 22.9 232 247 209 225 112 119Consensus 3.1 3.7 24.8 27.3 231 248 206 221 113 117History30 days ago 3.6 4.0 26.8 28.1 235 247 208 219 118 120

60 days ago 3.8 4.0 28.5 32.7 234 243 206 211 125 12790 days ago 4.1 4.1 29.3 31.7 240 253 211 221 128 131

Current Account Trade Balance % of GDP USD bn

Int. ReservesUSD bnUSD bn USD bn

Exports Imports

3

4

5

6


2015 2016

-40

-20

0

20

40

2000 2005 2010 2015

Malaysia

Asia (ex Japan)

100

120

140

160

180


2015 2016

31 | Current Account | % of GDP 32 | Trade Balance | USD billion 33 | Int. Reserves | months of imports

0

5

10

15

20

2000 2005 2010 2015


0

100

200

300

400

2000 2005 2010 2015

Trade BalanceImportsExports

0

5

10

15

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

Malaysia

Asia (ex Japan)


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April 2015

Malaysia in the Region

Population | %-share in Asia GDP | %-share in Asia

Fact Sheet

Malaysia1.9%

China60.6%

India12.3%

Korea8.0%

Indonesia5.0%

Other 12.2%

Malaysia0.9%

China41.1%

India37.8%

Indonesia7.6%

Philippines3.0%

Other 9.6%

Japan10.3%

U.S.A.8.1%

EU-2710.8%

Other Asiaex- Japan

14.6%China15.1%

Singapore13.3%

Thailand6.0%

Other 21.9%

Japan11.1%

U.S.A.8.6%

EU-278.7%

Other Asiaex- Japan

25.2%

Singapore13.8%

China13.2%

Thailand5.3%

Other 14.2%

Other 2.9%

Manufact.Products

71.2%

Ores &Metals5.3%

MineralFuels12.1%

Food8.4%

Other 5.5%

Manufact.Products

63.7%

MineralFuels18.0%

Food12.8%

Trade Structure

Primary markets | share in %

Primary products | share in %

Economic Structure

GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %

Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

0

20

40

60

80

1002005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Net Exports

Investment

GovernmentConsumption

PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002 00 5- 07 2 00 8- 10 2 011-1 3

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data

Economic Infrastructure

Political Data

Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings

Strengths Weaknesses

• Competitive labor costs • Scarci ty of qualified labor • Advanced financial sector • Vulnerability to external shocks• Net exporter of oil and gas • Low productivity

.

.

Energy (2012)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 3,815Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 3,111Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 127Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 118.5Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 696Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 656CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 199

Agency Rating OutlookMoody ’s : A3 PositiveS&P: A- StableFitch Ratings: A- Negative

Telecommunication (2013) Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 15.3

Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 145Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 67.0Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 8.2

Transportation (2013)

Airports: 114Railways (km): 1,849Roadways (km): 144,403Waterways (km): 7,200Chief Ports: Port Klang, Tanjug Pelepas

Official name: MalaysiaCapital: Kuala Lumpur (1.7 m)Other cities: Johor Bahru (1.4 m)

Kajang (0.8 m) Area (km2): 329,847Population (million, 2014 est.): 29.9Population density (per km2, 2014): 90.8Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 1.5Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 74.5Illiteracy rate (%, 2010): 6.9Language: Bahasa Malaysia,

EnglishMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT+8

Prime Minister: Najib Tun RazakLast elections: 5 May 2013Next elections: 2018Central Bank Governor: Zeti Akhtar Aziz


12/15


13/15

FOCUSECONOMICS Calendar


April 2015

Economic Release Calendar

(*) Preliminary estimate. (**) Approximate date.

Date Country Event

10 April China March Money Supply (M2) (**)

10 April India February Industrial Production

10 April India March Consumer Prices

10 April Malaysia Febuary Industrial Production

10 April Singapore Central Bank Meeting (**)

14 April India March Wholesale Prices

14 April Indonesia Central Bank Meeting

14 April Indonesia February Retail Sales (**)

15 April China Q1 2015 National Accounts

15 April China March Industrial Production

15 April China March Retail Sales

15 April China March Fixed Asset Investment

15 April Indonesia March Merchandise Trade

15 April Philippines February OFW Remittances

17 April India March Merchandise Trade (**)17 April Singapore March Merchandise Trade

18 April China March Property Prices

20 April Korea March Merchandise Trade

20 April New Zealand April Business Confidence (**)

20 April New Zealand Q1 2015 Consumer Prices

21 April Hong Kong March Consumer Prices

22 April Australia Q1 2015 Consumer Prices

23 April China April HSBC Manufacturing PMI

23 April Korea Q1 2015 National Accounts (*)

23 April Singapore March Consumer Prices23 April Taiwan March Industrial Production

24 April Korea April Consumer Confidence

24 April Taiwan Central Bank Meeting (**)

25 April Vietnam April Consumer Prices (**)


14/15

FOCUSECONOMICS


April 2015

Notes and Statements

PUBLICATION NOTE

Consensus forecasts are mean averages of projections of economic forecasters surveyed byFocusEconomics for our monthly publication. Quarterly averages may not correspond to the annual

gures due to different forecast panels.

The GDP-weighted averages for the regional aggregates refer to economies surveyed byFocusEconomics on a monthly basis, and include the following countries:

Asia (16 countries): Brunei, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Laos,Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam.Asia ex-Japan (15 countries): Brunei, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Laos,Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam.Asean (Association of Southeast Asian Nations, 10 countries): Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia,Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar (Burma), Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.NIEs (Newly Industrialized Economies, 4 countries): Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan.

Weights are based on market exchange rates and re ect the latest forecasts on GDP growth, in ationand exchange rates.

COPYRIGHT NOTE

© Copyright 2015 FocusEconomics S.L. Duplication, reproduction, transmission, publication orredistribution in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, or otherwise without prior written

consent of FocusEconomics S.L. is strictly prohibited. Please cite source when quoting. All rightsreserved under International Copyright Conventions.

The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia is a monthly publication of FocusEconomics.Communications to the Editor or FocusEconomics in general should be addressed as follows:

FocusEconomics S.L.Gran Via 657E-08010 BarcelonaSpaintel: +34 932 651 040fax: +34 932 650 804e-mail: [email protected]: http://www.focus-economics.com

DISCLOSURE STATEMENT

The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia (“Forecast”) is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable.FocusEconomics and the participating panelists (“Information Providers”) do not guarantee that the information supplied in the Forecastis accurate, complete or timely. The Information Providers do not make any warranties with regard to the results obtained from theForecast. The Information Providers are not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for any injuries or damages resulting from the useof this information, including incidental and consequential damages. Recipients should not regard the Forecast as a substitute for the

exercise of their own judgement. The recommendations made in the Forecast may be unsuitable for investors depending on their speci cinvestment objectives and nancial position. The Forecast has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitationof any transaction or an offer to enter into any transaction. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice andthe Information Providers are under no obligation to update the information contained herein.


15/15

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Focuseconomics Consensus Forecast Malaysia - April 2015

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Transcript of Focuseconomics Consensus Forecast Malaysia - April 2015