CONSENSUS FORECAST - FocusEconomics...April 2015 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see...

20
CONSENSUS FORECAST INDONESIA 2 CALENDAR 17 NOTES 19 Contributors ARNE POHLMAN Chief Economist ARMANDO CICCARELLI Head of Research RICARDO ACEVES Senior Economist RICARD TORNÉ Senior Economist OLGA COSCODAN Economist CARL KELLY Economist TERESA KERSTING Economist DIRINA MANÇELLARI Economist ANGELA BOUZANIS Economist CECILIA SIMKIEVICH Economist MIRIAM DOWD Editor PUBLICATION DATE 24 March 2015 FORECASTS COLLECTED 18 March - 23 March 2015 INFORMATION AVAILABLE Up to and including 23 March 2015 NEXT EDITION 28 April 2015 Indonesia • April 2015

Transcript of CONSENSUS FORECAST - FocusEconomics...April 2015 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see...

Page 1: CONSENSUS FORECAST - FocusEconomics...April 2015 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see manufacturing rising 5.1% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from the previous

CONSENSUS FORECAST

INDONESIA 2CALENDAR 17NOTES 19

ContributorsARNE POHLMAN Chief EconomistARMANDO CICCARELLI Head of ResearchRICARDO ACEVES Senior EconomistRICARD TORNÉ Senior Economist

OLGA COSCODAN EconomistCARL KELLY EconomistTERESA KERSTING EconomistDIRINA MANÇELLARI Economist

ANGELA BOUZANIS EconomistCECILIA SIMKIEVICH EconomistMIRIAM DOWD Editor

PUBLICATION DATE 24 March 2015FORECASTS COLLECTED 18 March - 23 March 2015

INFORMATION AVAILABLE Up to and including 23 March 2015 NEXT EDITION 28 April 2015

Indonesia • April 2015

Page 2: CONSENSUS FORECAST - FocusEconomics...April 2015 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see manufacturing rising 5.1% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from the previous

FOCUSECONOMICS Indonesia

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 2

April 2015

Indonesia

REAL SECTOR | Manufacturing PMI falls to record low in FebruaryThe manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) ticked down from 48.5 in January to 47.5 in February, according to a release provided by HSBC. February’s result marked the lowest level on record. Moreover, the index is below the 50-threshold, which indicates contraction in the manufacturing sector.

February’s figure reflected a fifth straight contraction in both output and new orders, with both falling at the fastest rate in nearly four years. Weak demand domestically, due to high prices and from abroad, were a drag on production and orders. Latest data show that input costs rose during the latest period, with a strong U.S. dollar pushing up the price of imported inputs. Manufacturers cut their purchasing activity the most in 18 months. Moreover, the decrease in production and demand led to a seventh consecutive fall in employment levels.

According to HSBC, “as new orders fell at a survey-record pace, reflective in part of rising prices negatively weighting on demand, the near-term outlook for the sector remains a little underwhelming. Accordingly, manufacturers responded by cutting their staffing levels further during February.”

Expectations are high that government-led infrastructure spending will boost the economy this year following disappointing GDP growth in 2014. However, there are also doubts regarding whether the savings generated by fuel subsidy cuts will be enough to fund the near-doubling of capital expenditures as laid out in the 2015 budget, particularly in light of the expected drop in oil-related revenues. Moreover, it remains to be seen at what rate government funds will be disbursed and how many of the projects in the pipeline will materialize. The success of the government’s expansionary fiscal plans may well determine the fate of the economy this year, given that other sectors are stuck in low gear. No strong recovery of export growth is expected in the near term, with subdued global demand offsetting the effect of a depreciating currency. Exports of commodities such as coal and palm oil, but also manufactured goods, are stuck in a rut. In fact, the manufacturing PMI hit a record low in February.

President Widodo’s growth-oriented policies are expected to boost the economy. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy expanding 5.4% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel sees GDP growth picking up to 5.7%.

Inflation receded from 7.0% in January to 6.3% in February. The rupiah traded at a multi-year low of 13,242 per USD on 16 March. The Central Bank decided to hold the BI rate at 7.50% at its 18 March monetary policy meeting. FocusEconomics panelists expect inflation to average 6.1% in 2015 and to drop to an average of 4.8% in 2016.

Outlook stable

LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages

Carl Kelly Economist

2011-13 2014-16 2017-19Population (million): 243 255 266GDP (USD bn): 909 935 1,290GDP per capita (USD): 3,716 3,662 4,840GDP growth (%): 5.9 5.4 5.9Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -1.7 -2.1 -1.5Public Debt (% of GDP): 21.6 25.0 25.0Inflation (%): 5.2 5.8 4.6Current Account (% of GDP): -1.9 -2.7 -1.9External Debt (% of GDP): 27.2 33.6 27.9

Indonesia

Purchasing Managers’ Index

Note: HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). A reading above 50 indicates an expansion in the manufacturing sector while readings below 50 indicate a contraction.Source: HSBC and Markit.

46

48

50

52

54

Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15

Page 3: CONSENSUS FORECAST - FocusEconomics...April 2015 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see manufacturing rising 5.1% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from the previous

FOCUSECONOMICS Indonesia

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 3

April 2015

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see manufacturing rising 5.1% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month’s estimate. For 2016, the panel expects manufacturing to increase 5.6%.

The Central Bank expects the economy to grow between 5.4% and 5.8% in 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to expand 5.4% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel sees economic growth picking up to 5.7%.

REAL SECTOR | Retail sales accelerate in JanuaryRetail sales in January expanded 10.4% over the same month of last year, according to Bank Indonesia’s Retail Sales Survey (RSS). The expansion was well above the 3.3% rise observed in December. According to the Bank, January’s expansion was driven by strong growth of sales of information and communication equipment as well as of food, beverages and tobacco.

Annual average growth in retail sales decreased from 14.4% in December to 13.4% in January. According to the survey, retailers expect sales to pick up in February to an 11.4% annual growth rate.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants see private consumption rising 5.1% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2016, panelists see growth in private consumption coming in at 5.4%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation recedes further in February amid low global oil pricesConsumer prices decreased 0.36% in February over the previous month, which followed the 0.24% drop tallied in January. February’s reading, the lowest since June 2007, was driven by a steep decline in prices for foodstuffs as well as transportation and communication services. Low global oil prices continue to offset the increase in prices caused by the government’s decision in November of last year to lower fuel subsidies.

Annual inflation receded from 7.0% in January to 6.3% in February. The reading was below market expectations of 6.7%. Annual average inflation inched down from 6.3% in January to 6.2% in February. Meanwhile, the core inflation index, which excludes volatile items such as food and administered prices, increased 0.34% over the previous month (January: +0.61% month-on-month). Annual core inflation held steady at January’s 5.0%.

The Central Bank’s inflation target for 2015 is 3.0%–5.0%. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect that inflation will average 6.1% in 2015, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, panelists see inflation averaging 4.8%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Bank Indonesia holds rates to calm capital outflows and currency volatilityAt its 18 March monetary policy meeting, the Central Bank decided to hold the BI policy rate at 7.50%. The move, which met market expectations, follows the surprise 25 basis point cut implemented at the previous meeting in February in an attempt to stoke economic growth. While boosting the economy remains a priority, the decision to hold the rate at this time comes primarily amid concern over capital outflows, exchange rate volatility, and a persistent current account deficit. The Bank also maintained the deposit facility rate at 5.50% and lending facility rate at 8.00%.

Retail Sales | variation in %

Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation in %.Source: Bank Indonesia (BI) and FocusEconomics calculations.

0

10

20

30

Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15

Year-on-year

Annual average

%

Inflation | Consumer Price Index

Note: Annual and monthly variation of consumer price index in %.Source: Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and FocusEconomics calculations.

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15

Month-on-month (left scale)

Year-on-year (right scale)

%%

Page 4: CONSENSUS FORECAST - FocusEconomics...April 2015 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see manufacturing rising 5.1% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from the previous

FOCUSECONOMICS Indonesia

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 4

April 2015

Bank Indonesia emphasized that it expects the economy to gather momentum during the course of this year. The Bank explained that increases in private consumption and government spending will drive an improvement already in Q1. Meanwhile, the external sector continues to suffer amid weak global demand and low commodity prices. Growth this year will accelerate on the back of increased investment and government infrastructure projects.

The Bank pointed out that consumer prices dropped 0.36% in February over the previous month. Moreover, annual inflation receded from 7.0% in January to 6.3% in February. Core inflationary pressures also subsided. Declining inflationary pressures are being driven by moderate domestic demand and weak global commodity prices. The Bank maintains its inflation target corridor of 4.0±1.0% for 2015 and 2016.

Regarding the external sector, the trade balance recorded a third straight surplus in February, due primarily to a non-oil and gas surplus. A surplus in the oil and gas sector in February also helped reduce some pressure on the country’s stubbornly large current account deficit. The Bank stated that its rate hold this month was aimed at guiding the current account deficit, “to a more healthy level in the range of 2.5-3% of GDP in the medium term.” The Bank suggested that foreign direct investment will grow as the domestic outlook improves.

In terms of currency developments, the rupiah continued to depreciate against the U.S. dollar in February. Solid economic growth in the U.S. and the launch of the ECB’s quantitative easing program have driven the dollar to appreciate further. The Bank explained that it will continue to intervene in the foreign exchange market to stabilize the currency. The Bank considers that a weaker rupiah will benefit the current account deficit through lower imports of consumer goods and greater export competitiveness, but aims to avoid a rapid depreciation.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the BI rate to average 7.22% at the end of 2015. For 2016, panelists expect the BI rate to end the year at 6.92%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Indonesian rupiah drops to multi-year lowThe Indonesian rupiah (IDR) traded at 13,242 per USD on 16 March, which was 16.6% weaker than the level registered on the same day of last year. The rupiah had not traded at such a low value against the U.S. dollar since 1998. The rupiah has lost more than 6.0% so far this year and will likely hold above the 13,000-per-USD barrier in the near term.

The currency’s downward trend has been driven by a combination of factors, including high demand for dollars and capital outflows in anticipation of an interest rate hike in the U.S. later this year. Moreover, the Central Bank has signaled that it is comfortable with a weaker currency on the grounds that a devalued rupiah will reduce the current account deficit through lower imports of consumer goods and greater export competitiveness. The Bank has intervened in the foreign exchange market to avoid a steep drop-off but is expected to allow the rupiah to depreciate slowly going forward.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the rupiah to trade at 12,994 per USD by the end of this year. In 2016, the panel projects that the rupiah will trade at 12,968 per USD.

Monetary Policy Rate | in %

Note: BI rate in %.Source: Bank Indonesia (BI).

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15

%

Exchange Rate | IDR per USD

Note: Daily spot of Indonesian rupiah (IDR) against U.S. dollar (USD).Source: Thomson Reuters.

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15

Page 5: CONSENSUS FORECAST - FocusEconomics...April 2015 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see manufacturing rising 5.1% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from the previous

FOCUSECONOMICS Indonesia

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 5

April 2015

EXTERNAL SECTOR | Exports decline again in February, but trade surplus holds amid slumping imports Exports contracted 16.0% in February over the same month of last year, which followed the 7.7% decline observed in January. February’s result marked the largest contraction since August 2012 and the fifth consecutive loss. Non-oil and gas exports, which account for the majority of Indonesian shipments, dropped 12.7% in February (January: -5.8% year-on-year). Similarly, oil and gas exports contracted 30.6% (January: -17.0% yoy). Meanwhile, imports fell 16.2% in January, which followed the 15.4% contraction in December.

The trade balance narrowed marginally from a USD 744 million surplus in January to a USD 738 million surplus in February. This result was somewhat smaller than the USD 843 million surplus recorded in the same month of 2014. However, the reading overshot the USD 635 million surplus the market had expected. Meanwhile, the 12-month moving sum of the trade balance widened slightly from a USD 0.7 billion deficit in January to a USD 0.8 billion deficit in February.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect exports to contract 0.5% and the trade balance to reach a USD 7.0 billion surplus in 2015. For 2016, the panel expects exports to grow 6.8% and the trade surplus to reach USD 8.4 billion.

Merchandise Trade

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.Source: Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and FocusEconomics calculations.

-30

0

30

60

-20

0

20

40

Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15

%

Trade balance (USD bn, left scale)Exports (yoy, right scale)Imports (yoy, right scale)

Page 6: CONSENSUS FORECAST - FocusEconomics...April 2015 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see manufacturing rising 5.1% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from the previous

FOCUSECONOMICS Indonesia

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 6

April 2015

Economic Indicators | 2010 - 2019

Annual Data 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Real Sector Population (million) 238 241 244 248 251 255 259 262 266 270GDP per capita (USD) 3,181 3,708 3,764 3,676 3,533 3,582 3,873 4,313 4,845 5,361GDP (USD bn) 756 894 920 912 888 914 1,002 1,132 1,290 1,447GDP (IDR tn) 6,864 7,832 8,616 9,525 10,543 11,752 12,987 14,354 15,879 17,530Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) 22.5 14.1 10.0 10.6 10.7 11.5 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.4Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 6.1 6.2 6.0 5.6 5.0 5.4 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.0Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 4.6 5.1 5.5 5.4 5.1 5.1 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.6Government Consumption (annual var. in %) 0.3 5.5 4.5 6.9 2.0 - - - - -Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) 8.5 8.9 9.1 5.3 4.1 5.7 6.8 7.1 7.2 7.3Manufacturing (annual variation in %) 4.5 6.3 5.6 4.5 4.6 5.1 5.6 5.9 5.9 6.0Unemployment (% of active population, eop) 7.0 7.5 6.1 6.2 5.9 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.4Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -0.7 -1.1 -1.8 -2.2 -2.3 -2.0 -1.9 -1.7 -1.5 -1.4Public Debt (% of GDP) 23.1 21.3 21.4 22.1 24.4 25.5 25.2 25.2 25.1 24.8Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M2 in %) 15.4 16.4 15.0 12.8 11.9 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) 7.0 3.8 3.7 8.1 8.4 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 5.1 5.3 4.0 6.4 6.4 6.1 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.4Inflation (Core, annual variation in %, aop) 4.0 4.6 4.3 4.2 4.5 - - - - -Inflation (WPI, annual variation in %, aop) 4.8 7.5 5.1 6.0 9.3 - - - - -BI Rate (%, eop) 6.50 6.00 5.75 7.50 7.75 7.22 6.92 7.08 7.12 7.203-Month JIBOR (%, eop) 6.64 5.27 5.02 7.84 7.17 6.70 5.68 5.58 5.49 5.3910-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 7.83 6.02 5.17 8.44 7.85 7.57 6.75 6.91 6.97 7.06Stock Market (variation of IDX in %) 46.1 3.2 12.9 -1.0 22.3 - - - - -Exchange Rate (IDR per USD, eop) 9,010 9,068 9,638 12,170 12,385 12,994 12,968 12,396 12,231 11,995Exchange Rate (IDR per USD, aop) 9,081 8,763 9,362 10,449 11,866 12,864 12,963 12,682 12,314 12,113External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 0.7 0.2 -2.7 -3.2 -3.0 -2.6 -2.4 -2.1 -1.9 -1.6Current Account Balance (USD bn) 5.1 1.7 -24.4 -29.1 -26.2 -24.2 -24.2 -23.4 -25.0 -23.5Trade Balance (USD bn) 22.1 26.1 -1.7 -4.1 -1.9 7.0 8.4 11.5 16.3 23.6Exports (USD bn) 158 203 190 183 176 175 187 205 226 254Imports (USD bn) 136 177 192 187 178 169 179 193 209 231Exports (annual variation in %) 35.4 29.0 -6.6 -3.9 -3.4 -0.5 6.8 9.3 10.2 12.8Imports (annual variation in %) 40.1 30.8 8.0 -2.6 -4.5 -5.3 6.1 8.0 8.3 10.3International Reserves (USD bn) 96.2 110.1 112.8 99.4 111.9 114.2 120.1 128.3 135.6 138.2International Reserves (months of imports) 8.5 7.4 7.1 6.4 7.5 8.1 8.0 8.0 7.8 7.2External Debt (USD bn) 202 225 252 266 293 313 336 344 357 369External Debt (% of GDP) 26.8 25.2 27.4 29.2 32.9 34.3 33.5 30.4 27.7 25.5 Quarterly Data Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.8 6.0Real Retail Sales (annual variation in %) 15.3 10.4 - - - - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 4.4 6.5 6.4 6.5 6.4 5.1 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.3BI Rate (%, eop) 7.50 7.75 7.49 7.35 7.28 7.22 7.17 7.08 7.08 6.923-Month JIBOR (%, eop) 8.07 7.17 7.25 7.16 7.08 6.70 6.60 6.55 6.30 5.6810-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 8.40 7.85 7.50 7.51 7.50 7.57 7.25 7.18 7.15 6.75Exchange Rate (IDR per USD, eop) 12,185 12,385 12,854 12,915 12,995 12,994 12,980 12,930 12,960 12,968Trade Balance (USD bn) -0.5 -0.2 1.8 -0.5 1.7 2.2 3.2 0.0 1.5 0.9Exports (USD bn) 43.9 43.6 42.5 42.9 42.9 44.1 44.3 46.2 46.3 49.1Imports (USD bn) 44.4 43.8 40.6 43.4 41.2 41.9 41.1 46.2 44.8 48.2Exports (annual variation in %) 2.3 -10.3 -4.2 -3.6 -2.3 1.1 4.4 7.6 8.0 11.4Imports (annual variation in %) -3.3 -5.3 -6.0 -7.1 -7.2 -4.4 1.2 6.4 8.7 15.1 Monthly Data May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15Manufacturing (annual variation in %) 3.8 6.1 1.5 6.0 9.8 5.4 3.8 5.3 5.0 -Real Retail Sales (annual variation in %) 14.8 8.7 19.2 8.8 17.9 17.7 11.5 3.3 10.4 -Consumer Confidence (100-point threshold) 116.9 116.3 119.8 120.2 119.8 120.6 120.1 116.5 120.2 120.2HSBC Manufacturing PMI (50-threshold) 52.4 52.7 52.7 49.5 50.7 49.2 48.0 47.6 48.5 47.5Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.16 0.43 0.93 0.47 0.27 0.47 1.50 2.46 -0.24 -0.36Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 7.3 6.7 4.5 4.0 4.5 4.8 6.2 8.4 7.0 6.3Exchange Rate (IDR per USD, eop) 11,675 11,855 11,578 11,690 12,185 12,085 12,204 12,385 12,668 12,925Trade Balance (USD bn) 0.1 -0.3 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 -0.4 0.2 0.7 0.7Exports (annual variation in %) -8.1 4.4 -6.4 10.7 3.9 -2.2 -14.6 -13.8 -7.7 -16.0Imports (annual variation in %) -11.3 0.4 -19.1 13.7 0.2 -2.2 -7.3 -6.6 -15.4 -16.2

Statistics Indonesia (BPS) released new national accounts data on 23 February, which introduced a new methodology and shifted the base year of calculation from 2000 to 2010. Some forecasts may not yet reflect these changes.

Page 7: CONSENSUS FORECAST - FocusEconomics...April 2015 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see manufacturing rising 5.1% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from the previous

FOCUSECONOMICS Indonesia

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 7

April 2015

0%

20%

40%

60%

< 4.4 4.7 5.0 5.3 5.6 5.9 6.2 6.5 > 6.5

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product

1 | Real GDP | 2000 - 2019 | var. in %

3 | GDP 2015 | evolution of forecasts

2 | Real GDP | Q1 12-Q4 16 | var. in % Real GDP growth in %

4 | GDP 2016 | evolution of forecasts

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from Statistics Indonesia (BPS). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.1 GDP, real annual variation in %. 2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.3 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in

%. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016ANZ 5.4 5.9Bank Danamon 5.3 5.8BII 5.5 6.0BofA Merrill Lynch 5.8 6.0Capital Economics 5.0 5.0Citigroup Global Mkts 5.2 5.4Credit Agricole 5.6 6.0Credit Suisse 5.1 5.7Daiwa 5.3 5.7Danareksa Securities 5.3 6.1DBS Bank 5.5 5.7Deutsche Bank 5.0 5.5EIU 5.5 6.1Frontier Strategy Group 5.6 6.0Goldman Sachs 5.4 6.0HSBC 5.5 5.8ING 5.5 5.5JPMorgan 5.3 5.0Mandiri Sekuritas 5.3 5.8Maybank Investment Bank 5.5 -Morgan Stanley 5.3 5.5Nomura 5.2 5.3OCBC Bank 5.4 -Oxford Economics 5.5 6.0Société Générale 5.3 5.8Standard Chartered 5.2 5.5UBS 5.0 5.8United Overseas Bank 5.5 -SummaryMinimum 5.0 5.0Maximum 5.8 6.1Median 5.4 5.8Consensus 5.4 5.7History30 days ago 5.4 5.760 days ago 5.4 5.790 days ago 5.4 5.7Additional ForecastsCentral Bank (Jan. 2015) 5.4-5.8 -IMF (Oct. 2014) 5.5 5.8ADB (Dec. 2014) 5.8 -

-5

0

5

10

15

2000 2005 2010 2015

IndonesiaAsia (ex Japan)World

2

4

6

8

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

IndonesiaAsia (ex Japan)World

4

5

6

7

Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb

MaximumConsensusMinimum

4

5

6

7

8

Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb

MaximumConsensusMinimum

5 | GDP 2015 | Panelist Distribution

Page 8: CONSENSUS FORECAST - FocusEconomics...April 2015 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see manufacturing rising 5.1% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from the previous

FOCUSECONOMICS Indonesia

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 8

April 2015

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

9 | Investment | evol. of forecasts

5

6

7

8

9

Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb

2015 2016

8 | Investment | variation in %

0

5

10

15

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

IndonesiaAsia (ex Japan)

7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst

5.0

5.2

5.4

5.6

Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb

2015 2016

6 | Consumption | variation in %

0

4

8

12

2000 2005 2010 2015

IndonesiaAsia (ex Japan)

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016ANZ - - - -Bank Danamon 5.2 5.2 5.7 6.7BII 4.9 5.0 6.2 7.1BofA Merrill Lynch 5.4 5.6 6.1 7.3Capital Economics 5.5 - 6.0 -Citigroup Global Mkts 4.6 4.7 - -Credit Agricole - - - -Credit Suisse 4.7 5.0 5.5 8.0Daiwa - - - -Danareksa Securities 5.4 5.3 4.5 7.3DBS Bank 5.2 5.3 5.0 5.6Deutsche Bank 5.3 5.5 6.6 6.5EIU 5.5 5.5 6.0 7.5Frontier Strategy Group 5.0 5.4 - -Goldman Sachs - - - -HSBC 5.5 5.7 4.9 5.8ING - - - -JPMorgan - - - -Mandiri Sekuritas 5.2 5.4 6.2 8.0Maybank Investment Bank 4.5 - 6.5 -Morgan Stanley 5.5 5.6 5.2 6.5Nomura 5.1 5.5 5.2 5.1OCBC Bank 5.0 - 4.8 -Oxford Economics 5.3 6.0 7.3 8.0Société Générale 5.6 5.9 6.9 8.1Standard Chartered - - - -UBS 4.6 5.2 3.2 4.5United Overseas Bank - - - -SummaryMinimum 4.5 4.7 3.2 4.5Maximum 5.6 6.0 7.3 8.1Median 5.2 5.4 5.9 7.1Consensus 5.1 5.4 5.7 6.8History30 days ago 5.1 5.4 5.7 6.960 days ago 5.0 5.3 5.7 7.190 days ago 5.0 5.4 5.7 7.1

Consumption Investment variation in % variation in %

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from Statistics Indonesia (BPS). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.6 Private consumption, annual variation in %. 7 Private consumption, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.9 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Consumption and Investment

Page 9: CONSENSUS FORECAST - FocusEconomics...April 2015 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see manufacturing rising 5.1% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from the previous

FOCUSECONOMICS Indonesia

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 9

April 2015

Real Sector | Additional Forecasts

Unemployment% of active pop.

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016ANZ - - - - - -Bank Danamon 5.8 5.7 -1.8 -1.9 - -BII 5.9 5.7 -1.8 -1.6 - -BofA Merrill Lynch - - -2.3 -2.2 25.0 25.3Capital Economics - - - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts 6.1 6.0 -2.0 -1.8 26.5 26.7Credit Agricole - - - - - -Credit Suisse - - -2.1 -2.3 22.8 22.0Daiwa - - -2.2 -2.2 - -Danareksa Securities - - - - - -DBS Bank - - -2.3 -2.1 - -Deutsche Bank 6.0 5.9 -1.7 -1.7 27.0 28.0EIU 5.8 5.8 -1.7 -1.7 25.3 25.4Frontier Strategy Group 5.7 5.5 - - - -Goldman Sachs - - - - - -HSBC 5.6 5.2 -1.9 -1.7 - -ING - - - - - -JPMorgan - - -1.9 - 25.2 22.0Mandiri Sekuritas - - - - - -Maybank Investment Bank 6.5 - -1.8 - - -Morgan Stanley - - -2.2 -2.2 - -Nomura - - -2.1 -1.7 - -OCBC Bank - - - - - -Oxford Economics 5.8 5.6 -2.2 -1.9 27.3 27.6Société Générale 6.1 6.0 -2.1 -2.0 26.0 25.5Standard Chartered - - - - - -UBS - - -2.3 -2.0 24.9 24.5United Overseas Bank 6.1 - -2.1 - - -SummaryMinimum 5.6 5.2 -2.3 -2.3 22.8 22.0Maximum 6.5 6.0 -1.7 -1.6 27.3 28.0Median 5.9 5.7 -2.1 -1.9 25.3 25.4Consensus 5.9 5.7 -2.0 -1.9 25.5 25.2History30 days ago 5.9 5.6 -2.0 -1.9 25.9 25.760 days ago 5.9 5.7 -2.0 -1.9 25.1 25.190 days ago 5.9 5.6 -2.1 -1.9 25.0 24.9

Fiscal Balance Public Debt% of GDP % of GDP

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and the Ministry of Finance. See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.10 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: BPS.11 Balance of central government as % of GDP. Source: Ministry of Finance.12 Balance of central government as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.13 Public debt as % of GDP. Source: BPS.

Unemployment, Fiscal Balance and Public Debt

13 | Public Debt | % of GDP

20

40

60

80

100

2000 2005 2010 2015

Indonesia

Asia (ex Japan)

12 | Fiscal Balance | evol. of forecasts

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb

2015 2016

11 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP

-4

-2

0

2

2000 2005 2010 2015

Indonesia

Asia (ex Japan)

10 | Unemployment | % of active pop.

2

4

6

8

10

12

2000 2005 2010 2015

IndonesiaAsia (ex Japan)

Page 10: CONSENSUS FORECAST - FocusEconomics...April 2015 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see manufacturing rising 5.1% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from the previous

FOCUSECONOMICS Indonesia

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 10

April 2015

0%

20%

40%

60%

< 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 > 10.0

Monetary Sector | Inflation

14 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | in %

16 | Inflation 2015 | evolution of fcst

15 | Inflation | Q1 12-Q4 16 | in %

17 | Inflation 2016 | evolution of fcst

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from Statistics Indonesia (BPS). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.14 Inflation, annual average variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %.15 Inflation, annual variation of quarterly average consumer price index (CPI) in %.16 Inflation, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.17 Inflation, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.18 Inflation, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval

in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016ANZ 5.1 4.7Bank Danamon 6.8 4.7BII 7.3 5.6BofA Merrill Lynch 6.5 4.5Capital Economics 6.0 5.0Citigroup Global Mkts 6.5 4.6Credit Agricole - -Credit Suisse 5.7 5.1Daiwa 5.0 5.1Danareksa Securities - -DBS Bank 6.0 5.5Deutsche Bank 5.8 4.9EIU 4.3 3.7Frontier Strategy Group 6.2 4.8Goldman Sachs 6.8 5.6HSBC 6.5 4.6ING 6.0 3.5JPMorgan 5.5 -Mandiri Sekuritas 6.0 5.1Maybank Investment Bank - -Morgan Stanley 6.3 5.0Nomura 6.8 4.7OCBC Bank 6.2 -Oxford Economics 6.5 4.5Société Générale 6.5 4.9Standard Chartered 6.6 4.5UBS 6.0 4.8United Overseas Bank - -SummaryMinimum 4.3 3.5Maximum 7.3 5.6Median 6.2 4.8Consensus 6.1 4.8History30 days ago 6.5 4.860 days ago 6.8 4.890 days ago 6.6 4.9Additional ForecastsCentral Bank Target 3.0-5.0 -IMF (Oct. 2014) 6.7 6.1ADB (Dec. 2014) 6.7 -

18 | Inflation 2015 | Panelist Distribution

Inflation | annual avg. var. of consumer price index in %

4

6

8

10

Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb

MaximumConsensusMinimum

0

5

10

15

2000 2005 2010 2015

IndonesiaAsia (ex Japan)

2

4

6

8

Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb

MaximumConsensusMinimum

2

4

6

8

10

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

IndonesiaAsia (ex Japan)

Page 11: CONSENSUS FORECAST - FocusEconomics...April 2015 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see manufacturing rising 5.1% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from the previous

FOCUSECONOMICS Indonesia

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 11

April 2015

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

< 5.50 6.00 6.50 7.00 7.50 8.00 8.50 9.00 > 9.00

Monetary Sector | Interest Rate

19 | Interest Rate | 2000 - 2019 | in %

21 | Int. Rate 2015 | evolution of fcst

20 | Interest Rate | Q1 12-Q4 16 | in %

22 | Int. Rate 2016 | evolution of fcst

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the Central Bank (BI, Bank Indonesia). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.19 Interest rate, BI Rate in % (eop).20 Quarterly interest rate, BI Rate in % (eop). 21 Interest rate, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.22 Interest rate, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.23 Interest rate, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast

interval in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016ANZ 7.00 7.00Bank Danamon 7.25 7.25BII 8.00 8.25BofA Merrill Lynch 7.25 7.25Capital Economics 7.00 6.50Citigroup Global Mkts - -Credit Agricole 7.50 7.50Credit Suisse 7.00 6.50Daiwa 7.75 7.50Danareksa Securities 6.50 6.25DBS Bank 7.50 -Deutsche Bank 6.75 6.75EIU - -Frontier Strategy Group - -Goldman Sachs 7.50 7.25HSBC 7.25 -ING 6.75 5.00JPMorgan 6.75 -Mandiri Sekuritas 7.25 7.00Maybank Investment Bank - -Morgan Stanley 6.75 6.75Nomura 7.00 7.00OCBC Bank 7.50 -Oxford Economics - -Société Générale 7.52 7.33Standard Chartered 7.75 -UBS 7.00 6.50United Overseas Bank 7.50 -SummaryMinimum 6.50 5.00Maximum 8.00 8.25Median 7.25 7.00Consensus 7.22 6.92History30 days ago 7.49 7.1560 days ago 7.75 7.2390 days ago 7.74 7.19

23 | Interest Rate 2015 | Panelist Distribution

Interest Rate | BI Rate

5

6

7

8

9

Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb

MaximumConsensusMinimum

5

10

15

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

4

6

8

10

Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb

MaximumConsensusMinimum

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

Page 12: CONSENSUS FORECAST - FocusEconomics...April 2015 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see manufacturing rising 5.1% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from the previous

FOCUSECONOMICS Indonesia

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 12

April 2015

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

< 11000 11,500 12,000 12,500 13,000 13,500 14,000 14,500 > 14500

Monetary Sector | Exchange Rate

24 | Exchange Rate | IDR per USD

26 | IDR per USD 2015 | evol. of fcst

25 | Exchange Rate | IDR per USD

27 | IDR per USD 2016 | evol. of fcst

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from Thomson Reuters. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.24 Exchange rate, IDR per USD (eop).25 Quarterly exchange rate, IDR per USD (eop).26 Exchange rate, evolution of 2015 forecast during the last 18 months.27 Exchange rate, evolution of 2016 forecast during the last 18 months.28 Exchange rate, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast

interval in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016ANZ 13,250 14,000Bank Danamon 12,450 11,800BII 12,500 12,200BofA Merrill Lynch 13,800 13,500Capital Economics - -Citigroup Global Mkts 13,182 13,022Credit Agricole 12,675 12,975Credit Suisse 13,600 13,800Daiwa 12,000 12,100Danareksa Securities 11,752 12,246DBS Bank 13,660 -Deutsche Bank 12,750 12,750EIU 12,344 11,944Frontier Strategy Group - -Goldman Sachs 13,000 13,250HSBC 13,800 14,500ING 13,500 13,600JPMorgan 12,600 13,000Mandiri Sekuritas 13,300 13,400Maybank Investment Bank - -Morgan Stanley 13,000 12,500Nomura 12,900 13,100OCBC Bank - -Oxford Economics 12,550 12,150Société Générale 13,600 13,250Standard Chartered 12,500 -UBS 13,250 13,250United Overseas Bank 13,900 -SummaryMinimum 11,752 11,800Maximum 13,900 14,500Median 13,000 13,022Consensus 12,994 12,968History30 days ago 12,636 12,70460 days ago 12,552 12,51690 days ago 12,420 12,505

28 | IDR per USD 2015 | Panelist Distribution

Exchange Rate | IDR per USD

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb

MaximumConsensusMinimum

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

2000 2005 2010 2015

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb

MaximumConsensusMinimum

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

Page 13: CONSENSUS FORECAST - FocusEconomics...April 2015 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see manufacturing rising 5.1% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from the previous

FOCUSECONOMICS Indonesia

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 13

April 2015

External Sector | Current Account and Trade Balance

5

10

15

20

Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb

2015 2016

32 | Trade Balance | evol. of forecasts

-100

0

100

200

300

2000 2005 2010 2015

Trade BalanceImportsExports

31 | Trade Balance | USD bn

-4

0

4

8

2000 2005 2010 2015

IndonesiaAsia (ex Japan)

29 | Current Account | % of GDP

-2.9

-2.6

-2.3

-2.0

-1.7

Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb

2015 2016

30 | Current Account | evol. of fcst

Current Account and Trade Balance

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016ANZ -2.3 -2.1 - -Bank Danamon -2.7 -2.3 10.7 11.5BII -2.5 -1.8 16.7 19.9BofA Merrill Lynch -2.3 -2.5 10.0 8.9Capital Economics - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts -2.5 -2.4 9.5 8.9Credit Agricole -2.5 -2.1 - -Credit Suisse -2.7 -2.9 - -Daiwa -2.0 -2.0 4.0 5.9Danareksa Securities -2.9 -2.8 3.8 2.0DBS Bank -2.9 -2.7 -6.0 -4.0Deutsche Bank -2.5 -2.0 13.8 19.9EIU -2.9 -1.8 9.5 16.9Frontier Strategy Group - - - -Goldman Sachs -3.1 -2.7 - -HSBC -3.0 -2.9 7.4 9.0ING - - - -JPMorgan -3.0 -2.9 - -Mandiri Sekuritas -2.7 -2.9 12.9 9.6Maybank Investment Bank -2.5 - - -Morgan Stanley -2.8 -2.6 - -Nomura -3.0 -3.3 -3.7 -6.5OCBC Bank - - - -Oxford Economics -2.5 -2.1 6.0 9.1Société Générale -2.7 -2.5 - -Standard Chartered -2.8 -2.5 - -UBS -2.2 -1.4 3.1 7.0United Overseas Bank -2.4 - - -SummaryMinimum -3.1 -3.3 -6.0 -6.5Maximum -2.0 -1.4 16.7 19.9Median -2.7 -2.5 8.5 9.0Consensus -2.6 -2.4 7.0 8.4History30 days ago -2.6 -2.3 7.8 11.860 days ago -2.5 -2.1 8.7 14.490 days ago -2.5 -2.1 8.0 15.9

Current Account Trade Balance% of GDP USD bn

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and from Central Bank (BI, Bank Indonesia). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.29 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: BI.30 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.31 Trade balance, imports and exports, in USD bn. Source: BPS. 32 Trade balance, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Page 14: CONSENSUS FORECAST - FocusEconomics...April 2015 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see manufacturing rising 5.1% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from the previous

FOCUSECONOMICS Indonesia

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 14

April 2015

External Sector | Exports and Imports

Exports and Imports

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016ANZ - - - -Bank Danamon - - - -BII 188 216 171 196BofA Merrill Lynch 177 181 167 172Capital Economics - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts 168 174 159 166Credit Agricole - - - -Credit Suisse - - - -Daiwa 176 182 172 176Danareksa Securities 180 196 176 194DBS Bank 173 185 179 189Deutsche Bank 180 192 166 172EIU 172 194 163 177Frontier Strategy Group - - - -Goldman Sachs - - - -HSBC 166 179 159 170ING - - - -JPMorgan - - - -Mandiri Sekuritas 163 168 150 158Maybank Investment Bank - - - -Morgan Stanley - - - -Nomura 179 182 183 188OCBC Bank - - - -Oxford Economics 167 184 161 175Société Générale - - - -Standard Chartered - - - -UBS 191 202 188 195United Overseas Bank - - - -SummaryMinimum 163 168 150 158Maximum 191 216 188 196Median 176 184 167 176Consensus 175 187 169 179History30 days ago 182 195 174 18360 days ago 185 201 176 18790 days ago 191 214 183 198

Exports ImportsUSD bn USD bn

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from Statistics Indonesia (BPS). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.33 Exports, annual variation in %. 34 Exports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.35 Imports, annual variation in %.36 Imports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

160

180

200

220

240

260

Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb

2015 2016

36 | Imports | evol. of forecasts

-40

0

40

80

2000 2005 2010 2015

IndonesiaAsia (ex Japan)

35 | Imports | variation in %

-20

0

20

40

2000 2005 2010 2015

IndonesiaAsia (ex Japan)

33 | Exports | variation in %

160

180

200

220

240

260

Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb

2015 2016

34 | Exports | evolution of fcst

Page 15: CONSENSUS FORECAST - FocusEconomics...April 2015 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see manufacturing rising 5.1% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from the previous

FOCUSECONOMICS Indonesia

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 15

April 2015

External Sector | Additional forecasts

290

300

310

320

330

340

Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb

2015 2016

40 | External Debt | evol. of forecasts

0

20

40

60

80

100

2000 2005 2010 2015

Indonesia

Asia (ex Japan)

39 | External Debt | % of GDP

0

5

10

15

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

IndonesiaAsia (ex Japan)

37 | Int. Reserves | months of imports

105

110

115

120

125

130

Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb

2015 2016

38 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst

International Reserves and External Debt

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016ANZ - - - -Bank Danamon 105 109 - -BII 118 121 311 322BofA Merrill Lynch 120 130 316 350Capital Economics - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts 125 140 333 367Credit Agricole - - - -Credit Suisse 105 100 281 282Daiwa - - - -Danareksa Securities - - - -DBS Bank 114 116 - -Deutsche Bank 114 118 311 331EIU - - - -Frontier Strategy Group - - - -Goldman Sachs - - - -HSBC 117 130 335 360ING - - - -JPMorgan 109 - - -Mandiri Sekuritas 117 124 311 353Maybank Investment Bank - - - -Morgan Stanley - - - -Nomura - - - -OCBC Bank - - - -Oxford Economics 115 123 311 327Société Générale - - - -Standard Chartered - - - -UBS 112 112 310 330United Overseas Bank - - - -SummaryMinimum 105 100 281 282Maximum 125 140 335 367Median 115 121 311 331Consensus 114 120 313 336History30 days ago 116 124 315 33360 days ago 116 126 312 32990 days ago 113 117 311 323

Int. Reserves External DebtUSD bn USD bn

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary and external sector data are from the Central Bank (BI, Bank Indonesia). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.37 International reserves, months of imports.38 International reserves, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.39 External debt as % of GDP.40 External debt, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Page 16: CONSENSUS FORECAST - FocusEconomics...April 2015 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see manufacturing rising 5.1% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from the previous

FOCUSECONOMICS Indonesia

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 16

April 2015

Indonesia in the Region

Population | %-share in Asia GDP | %-share in Asia

Fact Sheet

Indonesia5.0%

China60.6%

India12.3%

Korea8.0%

Taiwan3.1%

Other11.0%

Indonesia7.6%

China41.1%

India37.8%

Philippines3.0%

Vietnam2.7%

Other7.8%

Japan19.8%

U.S.A.5.1%

EU-278.1%

Other Asia ex-Japan

19.0%

China14.8%

Malaysia5.2%

Other27.9%

Japan10.2%

U.S.A.10.0%

EU-279.4%

Other Asia ex-Japan

28.4%

China11.7%

Hong Kong5.7%

Malaysia5.4%

Other19.1%

Other7.5%

Manufact. Products61.8%

Mineral Fuels22.0%

Food8.7%

Manufact. Products35.9%

Ores & Metals8.0%

Mineral Fuels32.5%

Agric. Raw Mat.

6.7%

Food16.9%

Trade Structure

Primary markets | share in %

Primary products | share in %

Economic Structure

GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %

Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

-20

0

20

40

60

80

1002005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Net Exports

Investment

GovernmentConsumption

PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data

Economic Infrastructure

Political Data

Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings

Strengths Weaknesses

• Extensive natural resources• Large domestic market• Diverse manufacturing sector • Weak legal framework

.

• Widespread corruption deters foreign investment

• Lack of quality infrastructure

Energy (2012)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 16,282Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 6,424Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 185Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 167Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 989Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 1,600CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 456

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: Baa3 StableS&P: BB+ StableFitch Ratings: BBB- Stable

Telecommunication (2013) Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 16.1Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 122Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 15.8Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 1.3

Transportation (2013) Airports: 673Railways (km): 5,042Roadways (km): 496,607Waterways (km): 21,579Chief Ports: Jakarta, Banjarmasin

Official name: Republic of IndonesiaCapital: Jakarta (9.1 m)Other cities: Surabaya (2.5 m)

Bandung (2.4 m)Medan (2.1 m)

Area (km2): 1,904,569Population (million, 2014 est.): 251.5Population density (per km2, 2014): 132Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 0.95Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 72.2Illiteracy rate (%, 2011): 7.2Language: Bahasa IndonesiaMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT+7 to GMT+9

President: Joko WidodoLast elections: 9 July 2014Next elections: July 2019Central Bank Governor: Agus Martowardojo

Page 17: CONSENSUS FORECAST - FocusEconomics...April 2015 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see manufacturing rising 5.1% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from the previous

FOCUSECONOMICS Calendar

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 17

April 2015

Economic Release Calendar

Date Country Event24 March China March HSBC Manufacturing PMI24 March Vietnam March Consumer Prices (**)25 March Korea Q4 2014 National Accounts25 March Taiwan Central Bank Meeting (**)26 March Korea March Consumer Confidence26 March Philippines Central Bank Meeting28 March Vietnam Q1 2015 National Accounts (**)28 March Vietnam March Industrial Production (**)30 March Korea April Business Confidence31 March Hong Kong February Retail Sales31 March Korea February Industrial Production31 March New Zealand March Business Confidence31 March Thailand February Manufacturing Production31 March Thailand February Merchandise Trade1 April China March Manufacturing PMI1 April Indonesia March HSBC Manufacturing PMI1 April Indonesia March Consumer Prices1 April Korea March HSBC Manufacturing PMI1 April Korea March Consumer Prices1 April Taiwan March HSBC Manufacturing PMI1 April Vietnam March HSBC Manufacturing PMI 2 April Hong Kong March HSBC PMI2 April India March HSBC Manufacturing PMI2 April Malaysia March Consumer Prices2 April Singapore March SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (**)2 April Thailand March Consumer Prices3 April Malaysia Febuary Merchandise Trade6 April India March HSBC Services PMI7 April Australia February Retail Sales7 April Australia Central Bank Meeting7 April India Central Bank Meeting7 April Philippines March Consumer Prices7 April Singapore Q1 2015 National Accounts (**)8 April Philippines February Exports8 April Taiwan March Merchandise Trade8 April Taiwan March Consumer Prices9 April Australia March Unemployment9 April China March Merchandise Trade (**)9 April Korea Central Bank Meeting10 April Australia April Consumer Confidence (**)10 April China March Consumer Prices10 April China March Producer Prices10 April China March New Yuan loans (**)

Calendar

Page 18: CONSENSUS FORECAST - FocusEconomics...April 2015 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see manufacturing rising 5.1% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from the previous

FOCUSECONOMICS Calendar

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 18

April 2015

Economic Release Calendar

(*) Preliminary estimate. (**) Approximate date.

Date Country Event10 April China March Money Supply (M2) (**)10 April India February Industrial Production10 April India March Consumer Prices10 April Malaysia Febuary Industrial Production10 April Singapore Central Bank Meeting (**)14 April India March Wholesale Prices14 April Indonesia Central Bank Meeting14 April Indonesia February Retail Sales (**)15 April China Q1 2015 National Accounts15 April China March Industrial Production15 April China March Retail Sales15 April China March Fixed Asset Investment15 April Indonesia March Merchandise Trade15 April Philippines February OFW Remittances 17 April India March Merchandise Trade (**)17 April Singapore March Merchandise Trade 18 April China March Property Prices20 April Korea March Merchandise Trade20 April New Zealand April Business Confidence (**)20 April New Zealand Q1 2015 Consumer Prices21 April Hong Kong March Consumer Prices22 April Australia Q1 2015 Consumer Prices23 April China April HSBC Manufacturing PMI23 April Korea Q1 2015 National Accounts (*)23 April Singapore March Consumer Prices23 April Taiwan March Industrial Production24 April Korea April Consumer Confidence24 April Taiwan Central Bank Meeting (**)25 April Vietnam April Consumer Prices (**)

Page 19: CONSENSUS FORECAST - FocusEconomics...April 2015 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see manufacturing rising 5.1% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from the previous

FOCUSECONOMICS

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 19

April 2015

Notes and Statements

PUBLICATION NOTE

Consensus forecasts are mean averages of projections of economic forecasters surveyed by FocusEconomics for our monthly publication. Quarterly averages may not correspond to the annual figures due to different forecast panels.

The GDP-weighted averages for the regional aggregates refer to economies surveyed by FocusEconomics on a monthly basis, and include the following countries:

Asia (16 countries): Brunei, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam.Asia ex-Japan (15 countries): Brunei, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam.Asean (Association of Southeast Asian Nations, 10 countries): Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar (Burma), Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.NIEs (Newly Industrialized Economies, 4 countries): Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan.

Weights are based on market exchange rates and reflect the latest forecasts on GDP growth, inflation and exchange rates.

COPYRIGHT NOTE

© Copyright 2015 FocusEconomics S.L. Duplication, reproduction, transmission, publication or redistribution in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, or otherwise without prior written consent of FocusEconomics S.L. is strictly prohibited. Please cite source when quoting. All rights reserved under International Copyright Conventions.

The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia is a monthly publication of FocusEconomics. Communications to the Editor or FocusEconomics in general should be addressed as follows:

FocusEconomics S.L.Gran Via 657E-08010 BarcelonaSpaintel: +34 932 651 040fax: +34 932 650 804e-mail: [email protected] web: http://www.focus-economics.com

DISCLOSURE STATEMENT

The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia (“Forecast”) is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable. FocusEconomics and the participating panelists (“Information Providers”) do not guarantee that the information supplied in the Forecast is accurate, complete or timely. The Information Providers do not make any warranties with regard to the results obtained from the Forecast. The Information Providers are not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for any injuries or damages resulting from the use of this information, including incidental and consequential damages. Recipients should not regard the Forecast as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgement. The recommendations made in the Forecast may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. The Forecast has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation of any transaction or an offer to enter into any transaction. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice and the Information Providers are under no obligation to update the information contained herein.

Notes

Page 20: CONSENSUS FORECAST - FocusEconomics...April 2015 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see manufacturing rising 5.1% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from the previous

ASIA PACIFIC |

CENTRAL AMERICA |& CARIBBEAN |

EASTERN EUROPE|

EURO AREA |

LATIN AMERICA|

MAJOR ECONOMIES |

MIDDLE EAST| & NORTH AFRICA|

NORDIC ECONOMIES|

Brunei, China, Cambodia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam, Australia & New Zealand

Belize, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico and Trinidad & Tobago

Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey & Ukraine

Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia & Spain

Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay & Venezuela

G7 countries (United States, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, France, Eurozone, Germany & Italy); BRIC overview (Brazil, Russia, India & China); Switzerland

Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, Yemen; South Africa

Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast reports cover economic forecasts for over 1,600 unique indicators in 95 countries. Every monthly report includes the Consensus Forecast for each indicator covered. The Consensus Forecast, based on an average of the forecasts provided by the most reputable economic research authorities in the world, is the one number you can rely on to make important business decisions.

REGIONS & COUNTRIES COVERED

WHY CHOOSE FOCUSECONOMICSInstantly diversify your intelligence portfolio with dozens of forecasts.

Get just the information you need, all in one place.

Streamline research efforts by utilizing our comprehensive survey of leading economists.

Prepare for what may occur next by studying how forecasts have evolved over time.

Gain key insight into political and economic developments in a country or region to assess the potential impact on business prospects.

REDUCE RISK

SAVE TIME

OPTIMIZE RESEARCH

ANALYZE TRENDS

ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENTS

REAL SECTOR GDP per capita Economic Growth Consumption Investment Industrial Production Unemployment Rate Fiscal Balance Public Debt

EXTERNAL SECTORCurrent Account Trade BalanceExportsImportsInternational ReservesExternal Debt

MONETARY & FINANCIAL SECTORMoneyInflation Rate Policy Interest Rate Exchange Rate

FocusEconomics | Gran Via 657, 08010, Barcelona, Spain | +34 932 651 040 | [email protected] | www.focus-economics.com

INDICATORS INCLUDED