CONSENSUS FORECAST - FocusEconomics · 2015. 12. 10. · Final data for the region show that GDP...

CONSENSUS FORECAST

SUMMARY 3CALENDAR 14CHINA 16HONG KONG 33INDIA 43INDONESIA 59KOREA 74MALAYSIA 89PHILIPPINES 99SINGAPORE 108TAIWAN 117THAILAND 126VIETNAM 140OTHER COUNTRIES 149

BRUNEI 149CAMBODIA 151LAOS 153MYANMAR 155

NOTES 157

ContributorsARNE POHLMAN Chief EconomistARMANDO CICCARELLI Head of ResearchRICARDO ACEVES Senior EconomistRICARD TORNÉ Senior Economist

OLGA COSCODAN EconomistCARL KELLY EconomistTERESA KERSTING EconomistDIRINA MANÇELLARI Economist

ANGELA BOUZANIS EconomistCECILIA SIMKIEVICH EconomistMIRIAM DOWD Editor

PUBLICATION DATE 24 March 2015FORECASTS COLLECTED 18 March - 23 March 2015

INFORMATION AVAILABLE Up to and including 23 March 2015 NEXT EDITION 28 April 2015

Asia • April 2015

FOCUSECONOMICS Summary

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 2

April 2015

Forecast Summary | Major Economies and Asia

Gross Domestic Product, ann. var. in % Consumer Prices, ann. var. in %

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016World -4.1 -3.3 -3.0 -2.8 -2.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

United States -6.7 -4.1 -2.8 -2.6 -2.8 -2.9 -2.4 -2.4 -2.2 -2.3Euro area -3.6 -2.9 -2.6 -2.4 -2.0 1.5 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.5Asia -3.9 -3.6 -3.2 -3.2 -3.0 1.7 1.8 2.1 2.6 2.3

Japan -9.0 -9.1 -8.3 -6.9 -6.3 1.0 0.7 0.5 1.7 1.6Asia (ex Japan) -1.8 -1.9 -1.9 -2.3 -2.3 2.0 2.1 2.5 2.8 2.4

China -1.6 -1.9 -1.8 -2.4 -2.5 2.5 1.9 2.1 2.6 2.3India -4.8 -4.6 -4.2 -4.0 -3.7 -4.7 -1.7 -1.4 -1.1 -1.6Asean -2.3 -2.1 -2.0 -2.3 -2.2 2.4 2.2 3.3 2.8 2.5

Brunei 16.9 16.8 11.3 4.0 6.1 33.5 31.5 31.4 28.0 27.4Cambodia -3.8 -2.7 -2.8 -2.2 -1.8 -7.4 -10.5 -10.0 -8.3 -7.1Indonesia -1.8 -2.2 -2.3 -2.0 -1.9 -2.7 -3.2 -3.0 -2.6 -2.4Laos -0.5 -5.6 -4.9 -4.2 -4.0 -27.7 -27.7 -22.3 -20.8 -18.0Malaysia -4.5 -3.9 -3.5 -3.4 -3.0 5.8 4.0 4.6 3.1 3.7Myanmar -1.7 -1.6 -4.5 -4.5 -4.4 -4.3 -5.4 -5.1 -5.2 -5.0Philippines -2.3 -1.4 -0.6 -1.6 -1.8 2.8 4.2 4.4 4.1 3.8Thailand -4.4 -2.4 -2.2 -2.3 -2.5 -0.4 -0.6 3.8 3.2 2.4Vietnam -6.8 -5.6 -5.9 -5.6 -5.3 6.0 5.6 4.4 3.8 2.8

NIEs 0.8 0.5 0.3 -0.1 0.0 6.7 8.1 8.8 9.1 8.5Hong Kong 3.2 0.6 1.7 1.2 0.9 1.6 1.5 1.9 2.4 2.6Korea 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.3 4.1 6.2 6.6 6.9 6.3Singapore 1.9 1.2 1.3 -0.5 0.0 17.2 17.9 19.1 18.9 18.3Taiwan -2.4 -1.4 -2.1 -1.5 -1.4 9.8 10.8 12.3 13.4 12.2

Current Account, % of GDPFiscal Balance, % of GDP

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016World 2.5 2.6 2.8 3.1 3.4 2.9 2.7 3.0 2.4 2.8

United States 2.3 2.2 2.4 3.1 2.8 2.1 1.5 1.6 0.6 2.2Euro area -0.7 -0.5 0.9 1.2 1.6 2.5 1.4 0.4 0.0 1.1Asia 5.0 5.4 5.1 5.3 5.5 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.1 2.5

Japan 1.8 1.6 0.0 1.0 1.5 0.0 0.4 2.7 0.9 1.1Asia (ex Japan) 6.3 6.5 6.5 6.3 6.3 3.7 3.5 2.8 2.4 2.8

China 7.7 7.7 7.4 7.0 6.8 2.6 2.6 2.0 1.7 2.1India 5.1 6.9 7.4 7.1 7.6 10.2 9.5 6.8 5.6 5.7Asean 5.8 5.1 4.5 5.1 5.3 3.8 4.2 4.1 3.5 3.7

Brunei 0.9 -2.1 0.1 2.1 3.1 0.5 0.4 -0.2 0.2 0.4Cambodia 7.3 7.4 7.1 7.3 7.4 2.9 3.0 4.2 3.4 3.4Indonesia 6.0 5.6 5.0 5.4 5.7 4.0 6.4 6.4 6.1 4.8Laos 8.0 8.5 7.4 7.2 7.5 4.3 6.4 4.1 4.2 4.3Malaysia 5.6 4.7 6.0 4.9 5.1 1.7 2.1 3.1 3.0 3.0Myanmar 7.3 8.3 7.9 8.0 7.9 2.8 5.7 5.5 6.3 6.4Philippines 6.8 7.2 6.1 6.4 6.3 3.2 2.9 4.2 2.9 3.5Thailand 6.5 2.9 0.7 3.8 4.0 3.0 2.2 1.9 0.7 2.3Vietnam 5.3 5.4 6.0 6.2 6.3 9.1 6.6 4.1 2.8 4.5

NIEs 2.3 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.4 2.7 1.7 1.6 1.3 2.0Hong Kong 1.7 2.9 2.3 2.6 2.9 4.1 4.3 4.4 3.4 3.3Korea 2.3 3.0 3.3 3.4 3.6 2.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 2.0Singapore 3.4 4.4 2.9 3.0 3.3 4.6 2.4 1.0 0.2 1.4Taiwan 2.1 2.2 3.7 3.7 3.5 1.9 0.8 1.2 0.6 1.5

Real GDP, annual variation in % Consumer Prices, variation in %

-2

0

2

4

6

8

World United States Euro area Japan Asia (exJapan)

China India

2013 2014 2015 2016

0

3

6

9

12

World United States Euro area Japan Asia (exJapan)

China India

2013 2014 2015 2016



April 2015

SummaryREAL SECTOR | Growth expected to remain broadly stable in Q1Final data for the region show that GDP expanded 6.3% annually in Q4, which was slightly down from the 6.4% increase tallied in Q3. As a result, regional growth for 2014 was on par with the 6.5% expansion recorded in 2013. Next year, growth in the ex-Japan Asia region will decelerate slightly mainly due to weaker economic dynamics in China. In this regard, and mainly due to recent revisions to the national accounts methodology in India, India is expected to grow faster than China in 2015. Estimates from FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists show that the ex-Japan Asia region will expand 6.2% in Q1.

Falling commodity prices, a more accommodative monetary policy stance across ex-Japan Asia and positive spillovers stemming from structural reforms in the region are expected to support growth going forward. Moreover, the healthy recovery in the United States’ economy and evidence that the Federal Reserve has pushed out interest rate hikes further will also boost economic dynamics in the region. The main downside risks to the economic outlook continue to be a potential severe downturn in China’s property market and faltering growth in Japan and the Euro area despite the fact that both have introduced massive quantitative easing programs.

OUTLOOK | India’s GDP revision continues to drive up regional outlookThe outlook for ex-Japan Asia improved for the first time in 16 months this period, following stable projections for the previous two months. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to expand 6.3% in 2015, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. This month’s upward revision mostly reflected India’s change in its national accounts methodology and its revised historical data, which brought panelists to raise India’s growth projections by 0.6 percentage points to 7.1%. That said, the panel also upgraded the outlook for the Philippines. Growth prospects for 7 of the 15 economies surveyed, including regional powerhouse China, were left unchanged. Conversely, projections for Brunei, Cambodia, Hong Kong, Korea, Laos and Malaysia were revised downward. The regional growth forecast for 2016 was revised upward by 0.1 percentage points to 6.3%.

Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos are expected to be the best performers in 2015. Among the major economies, India, China and

Regional outlook improves

6.0

6.3

6.6

6.9

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 166.2

6.3

6.4

6.5

6.6

6.7

Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb

2015 2016

Ex-Japan AsiaEconomic Growth Change in GDP forecasts

Note: GDP, real annual variation in %, Q1 2012 - Q4 2016.

Note: GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Change in GDP Growth Forecasts20162015

-0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6

Malaysia

Korea

China

Thailand

Singapore

Asean

Indonesia

Taiwan

Asia (ex Japan)

India

-0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

Korea

Indonesia

Taiwan

China

Asean

Thailand

Malaysia

Singapore

Asia (ex Japan)

India

Note: Change between April 2015 and March 2015 in percentage points.Source: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. .

.



April 2015

the Philippines will grow the fastest, with a projected expansion of 7.1%, 7.0% and 6.4%, respectively. At the other end of the spectrum, Brunei is likely to be the worst performer, followed by Hong Kong and Singapore.

CHINA | Growth momentum moderates at the start of the yearThe economy lost further momentum at the outset of the year according to data for the January–February period; growth in fixed-asset investment, industrial production and retail sales all marked multi-year lows. Moreover, the PMI was in contraction mode for the second consecutive month in February. At the annual National People’s Congress held on 5 March, Premier Li Keqiang unveiled the government’s macroeconomic goals for 2015. The majority of the targets were lowered from last year’s targets. This included cutting the growth target from last year’s 7.5% to 7.0%. Chinese authorities also signaled that they do not plan to prop up the economy with an aggressive fiscal stimulus package. (see details on page 16)

Although the economy will gradually slow in the coming years in line with the government’s strategy to promote more balanced economic growth, China will continue to be one of the top performers among the major global economies. Low oil prices and an accommodative monetary policy stance promise to spur growth this year. However, risks of a sharp correction in the property market and the high level of local government debt continue to loom over the economy. For this year, Consensus Forecast panelists maintained their growth projections stable at the previous month’s 7.0%. Next year, our panel sees growth at 6.8%.

INDIA | Modi’s administration presents FY 2015/2016 budget aimed at fostering investmentGDP slowed slightly in the quarter from October–December, growing 7.5% year-on-year. More recent data paint a cloudy picture of the economy. Industrial production eased in January and the manufacturing PMI fell in February indicating slowing economic momentum. However, on the flip side, the services PMI rose and the trade deficit shrank in February. Meanwhile, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley presented the budget for fiscal year 2015/2016 on 28 February. While it contains a number of potentially beneficial policies, including increased spending on infrastructure and significant tax reforms, it fell short of introducing any groundbreaking changes. (see details on page 43)

While India’s economic outlook remains fairly stable, recent revisions to the national accounts methodology and the revised historical data are lifting the forecast. Our panel of analysts raised their projections by 0.6 percentage points this month and now expect GDP to increase 7.1% in FY 2015/2016. For FY 2016/2017, our panel sees the economy expanding 7.6%.

KOREA | Recent economic data suggest growth is recoveringRecent data provide a glimmer of hope for the Korean economy after it lost momentum throughout 2014. Business confidence remains in pessimistic territory, although it did jump to a ten-month

4

5

6

7

8

9

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 165.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0


2015/16 2016/17

IndiaEconomic Growth Change in GDP forecasts


6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 166.7

6.9

7.1

7.3

7.5


2015 2016

ChinaEconomic Growth Change in GDP forecasts



Note: GDP, evolution of 2015/16 and 2016/17 forecasts during the last 18 months.



April 2015

high in March, and consumer confidence inched up in February. The PMI was positive again in February following a rebound from contraction in the previous month, and industrial production picked up pace in January. However, exports have been underperforming for several months, which poses a barrier to significant growth and recovery. Subdued global demand and a relatively weaker Japanese yen are hurting exports, which contracted at the fastest pace in two years in February. In an effort to reduce reliance on exports and boost domestic demand, President Park Geun-hye recently announced plans to cut business regulations to promote investment and growth in the services sector. Meanwhile, high household debt, which stands at more than 85% of GDP, continues to constrain private consumption. (see details on page 74)

Challenging global conditions will likely keep Korea’s export-driven economy performing below potential this year. Our panelists expect GDP to expand 3.4% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month. Panelists project GDP growth of 3.6% in 2016.

INDONESIA | New budget expected to rekindle growth Expectations are high that government-led infrastructure spending will boost the economy this year following disappointing GDP growth in 2014. However, there are also doubts regarding whether the savings generated by fuel subsidy cuts will be enough to fund the near-doubling of capital expenditures as laid out in the 2015 budget, particularly in light of the expected drop in oil-related revenues. Moreover, it remains to be seen at what rate government funds will be disbursed and how many of the projects in the pipeline will materialize. The success of the government’s expansionary fiscal plans may well determine the fate of the economy this year, given that other sectors are stuck in low gear. No strong recovery of export growth is expected in the near term, with subdued global demand offsetting the effect of a depreciating currency. Exports of commodities such as coal and palm oil, but also manufactured goods, are stuck in a rut. In fact, the manufacturing PMI hit a record low in February. (see details on page 59)

President Widodo’s growth-oriented policies are expected to boost the economy. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy expanding 5.4% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel sees GDP growth picking up to 5.7%. INFLATION | Inflation picks up in February on seasonal factorsAccording to preliminary data, inflation in ex-Japan Asia rose from January’s 1.6% to 2.0% in February. While the pick-up in inflation mostly reflects spillovers stemming from the Chinese New Year, inflationary pressures remain at bay due to weak economic activity and falling commodity prices. Against this backdrop, FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect regional inflation to average 2.4% in 2015, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2016, inflation is seen rising to 2.8%.

Ricard Torné Senior Economist

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 165.2

5.4

5.6

5.8

6.0


2015 2016

IndonesiaEconomic Growth Change in GDP forecasts



2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 163.4

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.8

3.9


2015 2016

KoreaEconomic Growth Change in GDP forecasts





April 2015

GDP Growth, 2015

Notes and sources

Note: Gross domestic product, real annual variation in %. All data for India refer to fiscal year ending in March.Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

GDP per capita, 2015

Notes and sources

Note: GDP per capita in current USD.Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

Gross Domestic Product, annual variation in %

GDP per capita, USD

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019China 7.7 7.4 7.0 6.8 6.6 6.4 6.0Hong Kong 2.9 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.4India 6.9 7.4 7.1 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.7Indonesia 5.6 5.0 5.4 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.0Korea 3.0 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.8 3.8 3.9Malaysia 4.7 6.0 4.9 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.0Philippines 7.2 6.1 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.1Singapore 4.4 2.9 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.5Taiwan 2.2 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4Thailand 2.9 0.7 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3Vietnam 5.4 6.0 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.4Brunei -2.1 0.1 2.1 3.1 - - -Cambodia 7.4 7.1 7.3 7.4 - - -Laos 8.5 7.4 7.2 7.5 - - -Myanmar 8.3 7.9 8.0 7.9 - - -

Asia (ex Japan) 6.5 6.5 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.2 5.9Asean 5.1 4.5 5.1 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.5NIEs 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.7

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019China 7,040 7,575 8,078 8,774 9,583 10,539 11,556Hong Kong 38,069 39,887 41,926 44,176 46,729 49,428 52,301India 1,511 1,679 1,826 2,038 2,291 2,582 2,918Indonesia 3,676 3,533 3,582 3,932 4,313 4,845 5,361Korea 25,983 26,945 27,626 28,756 30,812 33,687 36,548Malaysia 10,616 10,566 10,337 11,103 12,263 13,721 14,935Philippines 2,790 2,862 3,000 3,219 3,500 3,812 4,124Singapore 55,979 56,380 53,843 55,368 59,887 65,646 71,198Taiwan 21,880 22,676 22,452 23,332 24,870 26,962 29,273Thailand 5,695 5,458 5,533 5,753 6,081 6,538 7,056Vietnam 1,894 2,032 2,177 2,351 2,566 2,799 3,022Brunei 39,682 43,238 41,816 43,060 - - -Cambodia 1,010 1,107 1,187 1,279 - - -Laos 1,661 1,491 1,613 1,719 - - -Myanmar 1,113 1,232 1,319 1,477 - - -

Asia (ex Japan) 4,855 5,147 5,415 5,848 6,377 7,014 7,688Asean 4,016 3,994 4,028 4,320 4,701 5,190 5,664NIEs 27,761 28,736 29,090 30,278 32,399 35,238 38,130

0 15,000 30,000 45,000 60,000

CambodiaMyanmar

LaosIndia

VietnamPhilippinesIndonesia

AseanAsia (ex Japan)

ThailandChina

MalaysiaTaiwan

KoreaNIEs

BruneiHong KongSingapore

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

Asia (exJapan)

China India NIEs Korea Asean Indonesia

2013 2014 2015 2016

2 4 6 8 10

BruneiHong KongSingapore

NIEsKorea

TaiwanThailandMalaysia

AseanIndonesia

VietnamAsia (ex Japan)

PhilippinesChinaIndiaLaos

CambodiaMyanmar

2

4

6

8

Asia (exJapan)


2013 2014 2015 2016



April 2015

Private Consumption Growth, 2015

Notes and sources

Note: Private consumption, real annual variation in %. China data show estimates for real increases based on nominal data.Sources: National statistical institutes, central banks and FocusEconomics calculations.

Investment Growth, 2015

Notes and sources

Note: Gross fixed investment, real annual variation in %. Data for China refer to nominal urban fixed-asset investment.Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

Private Consumption, annual variation in %

Investment, annual variation in %

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019China 8.7 7.7 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.3 7.0Hong Kong 4.6 2.7 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.4India 6.2 6.5 6.8 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.9Indonesia 5.4 5.1 5.1 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.6Korea 2.0 1.7 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8Malaysia 7.2 7.1 5.8 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.5Philippines 5.7 5.4 5.8 5.7 5.5 5.6 5.6Singapore 3.6 2.5 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.7 3.0Taiwan 2.4 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5Thailand 0.3 0.3 2.7 3.2 3.5 3.7 3.9Vietnam 5.2 5.5 5.8 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.3Brunei 6.0 - - - - - -Cambodia 5.5 - - - - - -Laos 6.5 - - - - - -Myanmar 4.0 - - - - - -


2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019China 19.6 15.7 15.2 14.4 14.2 13.9 13.6Hong Kong 2.2 -0.3 3.9 3.3 4.0 3.8 3.4India 3.0 3.6 5.8 7.8 8.0 8.4 8.7Indonesia 5.3 4.1 5.7 6.8 7.1 7.2 7.3Korea 4.2 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 4.0Malaysia 8.5 4.7 4.8 5.4 5.7 5.9 6.2Philippines 11.9 8.6 7.0 6.8 6.3 6.1 6.1Singapore 1.2 -1.9 1.6 3.3 3.7 4.0 4.2Taiwan 5.0 1.7 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.5Thailand -2.0 -2.8 5.1 5.7 5.2 4.9 4.6Vietnam 5.3 7.1 8.1 8.1 8.6 8.7 8.7Brunei 11.9 - - - - - -Cambodia 9.6 - - - - - -Laos - - - - - - -Myanmar 10.9 - - - - - -


0 6 12 18

Singapore

Taiwan

NIEs

Korea

Hong Kong

Malaysia

Thailand

Asean

Indonesia

India

Philippines

Vietnam

Asia (ex Japan)

China

0

5

10

15

20

Asia (exJapan)


2013 2014 2015 2016

0 2 4 6 8

Singapore

Korea

NIEs

Thailand

Taiwan

Hong Kong

Asean

Indonesia

Malaysia

Philippines

Vietnam

Asia (ex Japan)

India

China

0

3

6

9

Asia (exJapan)


2013 2014 2015 2016



April 2015

Unemployment, 2015

Notes and sources

Note: Annual average unemployment rate. Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand end-of-year unemployment rate. China end-of-year urban unemployment. India has no official unemployment statistics.Sources: National statistical institutes.

Fiscal Balance, 2015

Notes and sources

Note: Fiscal balance in % of GDP.Sources: National statistical institutes and finance ministries.

Unemployment, % of active population

Fiscal Balance, % of GDP

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019China 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0Hong Kong 3.4 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5India - - - - - - -Indonesia 6.2 5.9 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.4Korea 3.1 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3Malaysia 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8Philippines 7.1 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.6Singapore 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8Taiwan 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8Thailand 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0Vietnam 3.6 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.4Brunei 3.8 3.5 3.2 3.1 - - -Cambodia - - - - - - -Laos - - - - - - -Myanmar 4.0 4.3 4.2 4.2 - - -


2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019China -1.9 -1.8 -2.4 -2.5 -2.4 -2.2 -1.9Hong Kong 0.6 1.7 1.2 0.9 1.4 1.6 1.7India -4.6 -4.2 -4.0 -3.7 -3.5 -3.3 -3.1Indonesia -2.2 -2.3 -2.0 -1.9 -1.7 -1.5 -1.4Korea 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.8Malaysia -3.9 -3.5 -3.4 -3.0 -2.9 -2.7 -2.6Philippines -1.4 -0.6 -1.6 -1.8 -1.5 -1.3 -1.3Singapore 1.2 1.3 -0.5 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4Taiwan -1.4 -2.1 -1.5 -1.4 -1.2 -1.0 -0.9Thailand -2.4 -2.2 -2.3 -2.5 -2.2 -2.1 -2.0Vietnam -5.6 -5.9 -5.6 -5.3 -4.2 -3.9 -3.4Brunei 16.8 11.3 4.0 6.1 - - -Cambodia -2.7 -2.8 -2.2 -1.8 - - -Laos -5.6 -4.9 -4.2 -4.0 - - -Myanmar -1.6 -4.5 -4.5 -4.4 - - -

Asia (ex Japan) -1.9 -1.9 -2.3 -2.3 -2.2 -2.0 -1.8Asean -2.1 -2.0 -2.3 -2.2 -1.9 -1.7 -1.6NIEs 0.5 0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.5

-6 -3 0 3 6

VietnamMyanmar

LaosIndia

MalaysiaChinaAsean

Asia (ex Japan)Thailand

CambodiaIndonesia

PhilippinesTaiwan

SingaporeNIEs

KoreaHong Kong

Brunei

-6

-4

-2

0

2

Asia (exJapan)


2013 2014 2015 2016

0 2 4 6 8

Thailand

Singapore

Malaysia

Vietnam

Brunei

Korea

Hong Kong

NIEs

Taiwan

Asia (ex Japan)

China

Myanmar

Asean

Indonesia

Philippines

3

4

5

6

7

Asia (ex Japan) China NIEs Korea Asean Indonesia

2013 2014 2015 2016



April 2015

Inflation, 2015

Notes and sources

Note: Annual average variation of consumer price index in %. Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

Interest Rate, 2015

Notes and sources

Note: Nominal end-of-year interest rates in %. Brunei: Lending interest rate.Cambodia: Deposit interest rate.China: 1-year deposit rate.Hong Kong: 91-day Hong Kong interbank offered rate (HIBOR).India: RBI repurchase rate.Indonesia: Overnight BI rate.Korea: Bank of Korea base rate.Laos: 2-week lending rate.Malaysia: Overnight policy rate.Myanmar: Discount rate.Philippines: Reserve repurchase rate.Singapore: 3-month swap offer rate (SOR).Taiwan: CB discount rate.Thailand: 1-day repurchase rate.Vietnam: Refinancing rate.Sources: National central banks.

Inflation, annual average variation of consumer prices in %

Interest Rate, %2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

China 3.00 2.75 2.27 2.21 2.59 2.98 3.02Hong Kong 0.38 0.38 0.92 1.57 2.45 2.99 3.35India 8.00 7.50 7.10 7.00 6.75 6.59 6.44Indonesia 7.50 7.75 7.22 6.92 7.08 7.12 7.20Korea 2.50 2.00 1.64 1.93 2.12 2.34 2.37Malaysia 3.00 3.25 3.24 3.32 3.43 3.66 3.91Philippines 3.50 4.00 4.12 4.57 4.67 4.93 5.00Singapore 0.40 0.46 1.15 2.05 2.10 2.21 2.35Taiwan 1.88 1.88 1.93 2.14 2.63 3.13 3.62Thailand 2.25 2.00 1.82 2.23 2.67 2.89 3.11Vietnam 7.00 6.50 5.86 6.20 6.88 7.00 7.00Brunei 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 - - -Cambodia 1.34 1.44 1.46 1.50 - - -Laos 6.25 6.25 6.27 6.33 - - -Myanmar 10.00 10.00 10.26 11.01 - - -


2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019China 2.6 2.0 1.7 2.1 2.5 2.9 3.0Hong Kong 4.3 4.4 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.1India 9.5 6.8 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.5Indonesia 6.4 6.4 6.1 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.4Korea 1.3 1.3 1.3 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.5Malaysia 2.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.7Philippines 2.9 4.2 2.9 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5Singapore 2.4 1.0 0.2 1.4 2.1 2.2 2.3Taiwan 0.8 1.2 0.6 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7Thailand 2.2 1.9 0.7 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5Vietnam 6.6 4.1 2.8 4.5 5.0 5.2 5.2Brunei 0.4 -0.2 0.2 0.4 - - -Cambodia 3.0 4.2 3.4 3.4 - - -Laos 6.4 4.1 4.2 4.3 - - -Myanmar 5.7 5.5 6.3 6.4 - - -


0 3 6 9 12

Hong KongSingaporeCambodia

NIEsKorea

ThailandTaiwan

ChinaAsia (ex Japan)

MalaysiaPhilippines

AseanBrunei

VietnamLaosIndia

IndonesiaMyanmar

0

3

6

9

Asia (exJapan)


2013 2014 2015 2016

0

3

6

9

12

Asia (exJapan)


2012 2013 2015 2016

0 2 4 6 8

SingaporeBrunei

TaiwanThailand

NIEsKoreaChina

Asia (ex Japan)Vietnam

PhilippinesMalaysia

Hong KongCambodia

AseanLaosIndia

IndonesiaMyanmar



April 2015

Exchange Rates vs. USD, 2015

Notes and sources

Note: Annual variation of national currencies versus USD in %. Positive number means currency is losing value against USD. Regional aggregates provided only as indicative information.Sources: Central banks and Thomson Reuters.

Current Account Balance, 2015

Notes and sources

Note: Current account balance as % of GDP. Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks. China: State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE).

Exchange Rates vs. USD, annual variation in %

Current Account Balance, % of GDP2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

China 1.9 2.1 2.6 2.3 2.1 1.8 1.7Hong Kong 1.5 1.9 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.0India -1.7 -1.4 -1.1 -1.6 -1.8 -1.9 -2.0Indonesia -3.2 -3.0 -2.6 -2.4 -2.1 -1.9 -1.6Korea 6.2 6.6 6.9 6.3 5.1 4.7 4.4Malaysia 4.0 4.6 3.1 3.7 3.6 3.0 2.9Philippines 4.2 4.4 4.1 3.8 3.0 2.7 2.6Singapore 17.9 19.1 18.9 18.3 17.1 16.7 16.6Taiwan 10.8 12.3 13.4 12.2 11.5 11.1 10.7Thailand -0.6 3.8 3.2 2.4 1.9 1.3 0.8Vietnam 5.6 4.4 3.8 2.8 2.2 1.9 1.7Brunei 31.5 31.4 28.0 27.4 - - -Cambodia -10.5 -10.0 -8.3 -7.1 - - -Laos -27.7 -22.3 -20.8 -18.0 - - -Myanmar -5.4 -5.1 -5.2 -5.0 - - -


2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019China -2.8 2.5 0.6 -0.6 -0.7 -1.4 -0.7Hong Kong 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0India 10.6 3.6 1.1 -0.5 -0.6 -1.2 -1.2Indonesia 26.3 1.8 4.9 -0.2 -4.4 -1.3 -1.9Korea -1.4 4.2 2.2 0.6 -3.1 -3.5 -1.2Malaysia 7.2 6.6 3.0 -1.7 -6.4 -3.9 -1.6Philippines 8.1 0.9 1.4 0.3 -2.4 -0.2 -1.2Singapore 3.4 4.9 4.1 -1.2 -4.5 -3.8 -2.0Taiwan 2.7 6.1 1.6 -0.4 -3.2 -3.3 -3.5Thailand 7.1 0.5 2.1 1.7 -0.9 -1.4 -1.4Vietnam 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.5 0.7 1.8 2.8Brunei 3.4 5.0 -0.6 -1.7 - - -Cambodia -0.7 2.0 1.5 1.2 - - -Laos -0.7 1.2 2.5 3.4 - - -Myanmar 15.5 4.2 2.4 0.2 - - -

Asia (ex Japan) 1.6 2.8 1.2 -0.4 -1.3 -1.6 -0.9Asean 13.6 2.6 3.3 0.0 -3.3 -1.4 -1.2NIEs 0.2 4.2 2.1 0.1 -2.9 -3.1 -1.6

-30 -15 0 15 30

LaosCambodiaMyanmarIndonesia

IndiaHong Kong


AseanMalaysiaThailandVietnam

PhilippinesKoreaNIEs

TaiwanSingapore

Brunei

-2 0 2 4 6

BruneiHong Kong

ChinaIndia

Asia (ex Japan)Vietnam

PhilippinesCambodia

TaiwanNIEs

ThailandKorea

MyanmarLaos

MalaysiaAsean

SingaporeIndonesia

-5

0

5

10

Asia (exJapan)


2013 2014 2015 2016

-10

0

10

20

30

Asia (exJapan)


2013 2014 2015 2016



April 2015

Export Growth, 2015

Notes and sources

Note: Nominal annual variation in % of merchandise exportsSources: National statistical institutes and central banks. China: Customs Department.

Import Growth, 2015

Notes and sources

Note: Nominal annual variation in % of merchandise imports. Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks. China: Customs Department.

Exports, annual variation in %

Imports, annual variation in %

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019China 7.8 6.1 6.6 5.9 6.1 6.9 7.8Hong Kong 3.6 3.2 4.9 6.1 6.7 7.1 7.4India 4.4 3.7 4.9 8.7 11.9 12.9 13.9Indonesia -3.9 -3.4 -0.5 6.8 9.3 10.2 12.8Korea 2.1 2.3 2.6 4.2 5.7 6.2 6.4Malaysia 0.4 2.5 -1.3 7.3 7.5 7.7 8.0Philippines 7.0 10.8 1.8 8.3 6.9 6.5 6.1Singapore 0.5 -0.7 -1.4 2.1 4.4 7.9 8.1Taiwan 1.4 2.7 3.5 4.9 6.4 6.8 7.1Thailand 0.2 -0.5 4.1 5.9 6.2 6.3 6.4Vietnam 15.4 13.6 8.4 14.0 14.6 14.9 15.1Brunei -11.9 -0.3 -5.9 10.0 - - -Cambodia 18.7 10.5 11.2 12.1 - - -Laos 3.3 16.6 13.8 5.4 - - -Myanmar 26.2 19.5 13.5 12.9 - - -


2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019China 7.3 0.5 4.0 5.6 5.8 6.9 7.7Hong Kong 3.8 4.0 3.6 5.8 6.1 6.9 7.4India -8.2 2.7 3.4 8.3 12.6 14.1 15.7Indonesia -2.6 -4.5 -5.3 6.1 8.0 8.3 10.3Korea -0.8 1.9 -1.2 4.7 4.8 5.2 5.9Malaysia 4.9 1.4 -1.2 7.0 7.4 8.0 8.2Philippines 0.4 0.5 9.3 7.4 7.4 7.3 6.9Singapore -1.3 -1.4 0.1 2.2 4.2 6.6 7.4Taiwan -0.2 1.5 0.0 6.4 7.9 8.0 8.1Thailand -0.2 -8.6 6.0 7.6 6.7 6.3 6.0Vietnam 17.4 12.1 6.5 15.9 14.3 13.5 13.4Brunei 1.1 -5.1 -2.9 4.2 - - -Cambodia 18.2 10.1 12.1 12.7 - - -Laos 11.8 10.9 13.0 9.9 - - -Myanmar 19.9 9.7 13.7 14.9 - - -

Asia (ex Japan) 2.8 1.0 2.6 6.2 6.8 7.9 8.6Asean 2.1 -0.8 1.7 7.0 7.2 8.4 8.8NIEs 0.6 1.8 0.8 4.8 5.6 6.5 7.0

-10 -5 0 5 10 15

IndonesiaBrunei

MalaysiaKorea

TaiwanSingapore

NIEsAsean

Asia (ex Japan)India

Hong KongChina

ThailandVietnam

PhilippinesCambodia

LaosMyanmar

-10

-5

0

5

10

Asia (exJapan)


2013 2014 2015 2016

-10 -5 0 5 10 15

BruneiSingapore

MalaysiaIndonesia

AseanPhilippines

NIEsKorea

TaiwanThailand

Asia (ex Japan)India

Hong KongChina

VietnamCambodiaMyanmar

Laos

-5

0

5

10

Asia (exJapan)


2013 2014 2015 2016



April 2015

International Reserves, 2015

Notes and sources

Note: International reserves as months of imports.Sources: Central banks.

External Debt, 2015

Notes and sources

Note: External debt as % of GDP. Data for Hong Kong and Singapore not included in regional average as figures not comparable with remaining countries.Sources: National statistical institutes, central banks and finance ministries.

International Reserves, months of imports

External Debt, % of GDP

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019China 23.5 23.5 23.6 22.9 21.8 20.9 19.4Hong Kong 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.1 6.7 6.6 6.5India 7.9 8.6 9.2 9.4 8.4 7.6 6.8Indonesia 6.4 7.5 8.1 8.0 8.0 7.8 7.2Korea 8.1 8.3 8.9 9.1 8.7 8.3 8.1Malaysia 7.9 6.7 6.6 6.4 5.9 5.8 5.6Philippines 16.0 15.2 14.6 14.0 13.5 13.8 13.6Singapore 8.9 8.5 8.7 8.8 8.8 8.6 8.4Taiwan 18.5 18.3 19.1 18.3 18.1 17.6 17.0Thailand 9.2 9.4 9.0 8.7 8.4 8.2 8.0Vietnam 2.4 2.9 3.3 3.6 3.3 3.2 3.0Brunei 11.3 10.4 10.7 12.1 - - -Cambodia 4.2 4.5 4.3 4.2 - - -Laos 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.2 - - -Myanmar 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.6 - - -


2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019China 9.0 9.1 9.0 9.2 9.4 9.5 9.6Hong Kong 422.3 445.5 405.4 403.2 398.6 393.0 386.5India 23.5 21.8 21.1 19.6 17.7 15.8 14.1Indonesia 29.2 32.9 34.3 33.0 30.4 27.7 25.5Korea 32.5 31.3 31.4 31.0 29.2 26.8 24.9Malaysia 67.8 64.8 68.1 63.2 57.0 53.3 50.1Philippines 21.5 20.7 18.9 17.1 15.8 14.4 13.1Singapore 430.7 - - - - - -Taiwan 33.3 33.5 34.7 35.2 34.5 32.9 31.3Thailand 36.5 38.5 39.5 38.9 37.0 34.4 31.9Vietnam 38.5 38.0 37.3 37.0 34.6 31.8 29.0Brunei 5.1 4.8 5.1 5.3 - - -Cambodia 42.2 39.0 39.5 41.5 - - -Laos 76.6 84.2 82.1 81.1 - - -Myanmar 13.0 9.3 8.8 9.0 - - -


0 20 40 60 80 100

Brunei

Myanmar

China

Asia (ex Japan)

Philippines

India

Korea

Asean

Indonesia

Taiwan

Vietnam

Thailand

Cambodia

Malaysia

Laos

0

10

20

30

40

Asia (exJapan)


2013 2014 2015 2016

0 5 10 15 20 25

LaosVietnam

MyanmarCambodia

MalaysiaHong Kong

AseanIndonesiaSingapore

KoreaThailand

IndiaNIEs

BruneiPhilippines

Asia (ex Japan)Taiwan

China

5

10

15

20

25

Asia (exJapan)


2013 2014 2015 2016



April 2015

Quarterly Data | Economic Growth and Inflation | Q1 2014 - Q4 2016

GDP, year-on-year variation in % Consumer Prices, year-on-year variation in %

Yoy change of quarterlyavg. CPI % Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4China 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.3Hong Kong 4.2 3.6 4.8 5.1 3.8 3.3 3.3 3.0 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.1India 8.4 8.2 7.7 4.8 5.6 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.8 5.6 5.5Indonesia 7.8 7.1 4.4 6.5 6.4 6.5 6.4 5.1 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.3Korea 1.1 1.6 1.4 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0Malaysia 3.5 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.1 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.9 2.8 2.5 2.5Philippines 4.1 4.3 4.7 3.6 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.7Singapore 1.0 2.2 1.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.6Taiwan 0.8 1.6 1.5 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.6Thailand 2.0 2.5 2.0 1.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3Vietnam 4.8 4.7 4.3 2.6 2.4 3.0 3.2 2.2 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.5

Asia (ex Japan) 3.3 3.2 2.9 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8Asean 4.5 4.5 3.3 3.5 3.1 3.4 3.5 3.1 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.2NIEs 1.4 1.9 1.8 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0

2014 2015 2016

Gross domestic productannual var. in % Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4China 7.4 7.5 7.3 7.3 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.8Hong Kong 2.6 1.8 2.7 2.2 2.4 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.8 2.7 3.0 3.0India 6.7 6.5 8.2 7.5 7.4 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.5 7.7 7.8 7.8Indonesia 5.1 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.8 6.0Korea 3.9 3.5 3.2 2.7 2.9 3.4 3.5 3.9 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.4Malaysia 6.2 6.5 5.6 5.8 5.4 5.1 4.9 4.7 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.2Philippines 5.6 6.4 5.3 6.9 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.2 6.2Singapore 4.6 2.3 2.8 2.1 2.4 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.2Taiwan 3.4 3.9 4.3 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6Thailand -0.5 0.4 0.6 2.3 3.8 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.6 4.2 4.9Vietnam 5.1 5.3 6.1 7.0 5.8 6.4 6.5 5.8 5.9 6.5 6.6 6.0

Asia (ex Japan) 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3Asean 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.2NIEs 3.7 3.2 3.4 2.7 2.9 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3

2014 2015 2016

2

4

6

8

10

12

Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

Asia (ex Japan) China India Korea

0

4

8

12

Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

Asia (ex Japan) China India Korea

FOCUSECONOMICS Calendar


April 2015

Economic Release Calendar

Date Country Event24 March China March HSBC Manufacturing PMI24 March Vietnam March Consumer Prices (**)25 March Korea Q4 2014 National Accounts25 March Taiwan Central Bank Meeting (**)26 March Korea March Consumer Confidence26 March Philippines Central Bank Meeting28 March Vietnam Q1 2015 National Accounts (**)28 March Vietnam March Industrial Production (**)30 March Korea April Business Confidence31 March Hong Kong February Retail Sales31 March Korea February Industrial Production31 March New Zealand March Business Confidence31 March Thailand February Manufacturing Production31 March Thailand February Merchandise Trade1 April China March Manufacturing PMI1 April Indonesia March HSBC Manufacturing PMI1 April Indonesia March Consumer Prices1 April Korea March HSBC Manufacturing PMI1 April Korea March Consumer Prices1 April Taiwan March HSBC Manufacturing PMI1 April Vietnam March HSBC Manufacturing PMI 2 April Hong Kong March HSBC PMI2 April India March HSBC Manufacturing PMI2 April Malaysia March Consumer Prices2 April Singapore March SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (**)2 April Thailand March Consumer Prices3 April Malaysia Febuary Merchandise Trade6 April India March HSBC Services PMI7 April Australia February Retail Sales7 April Australia Central Bank Meeting7 April India Central Bank Meeting7 April Philippines March Consumer Prices7 April Singapore Q1 2015 National Accounts (**)8 April Philippines February Exports8 April Taiwan March Merchandise Trade8 April Taiwan March Consumer Prices9 April Australia March Unemployment9 April China March Merchandise Trade (**)9 April Korea Central Bank Meeting10 April Australia April Consumer Confidence (**)10 April China March Consumer Prices10 April China March Producer Prices10 April China March New Yuan loans (**)

Calendar

FOCUSECONOMICS Calendar


April 2015

Economic Release Calendar

(*) Preliminary estimate. (**) Approximate date.

Date Country Event10 April China March Money Supply (M2) (**)10 April India February Industrial Production10 April India March Consumer Prices10 April Malaysia Febuary Industrial Production10 April Singapore Central Bank Meeting (**)14 April India March Wholesale Prices14 April Indonesia Central Bank Meeting14 April Indonesia February Retail Sales (**)15 April China Q1 2015 National Accounts15 April China March Industrial Production15 April China March Retail Sales15 April China March Fixed Asset Investment15 April Indonesia March Merchandise Trade15 April Philippines February OFW Remittances 17 April India March Merchandise Trade (**)17 April Singapore March Merchandise Trade 18 April China March Property Prices20 April Korea March Merchandise Trade20 April New Zealand April Business Confidence (**)20 April New Zealand Q1 2015 Consumer Prices21 April Hong Kong March Consumer Prices22 April Australia Q1 2015 Consumer Prices23 April China April HSBC Manufacturing PMI23 April Korea Q1 2015 National Accounts (*)23 April Singapore March Consumer Prices23 April Taiwan March Industrial Production24 April Korea April Consumer Confidence24 April Taiwan Central Bank Meeting (**)25 April Vietnam April Consumer Prices (**)

FOCUSECONOMICS China


April 2015

China

POLITICS | Chinese leadership cuts main economic targets for 2015Premier Li Keqiang disclosed the long-awaited list of economic targets for this year along with the central government’s budget during the third session of the 12th National People’s Congress (NPC), which ran from 5 to 15 March. The Premier also reaffirmed in the all-important Government Work Report, that the government will continue to implement proactive fiscal and prudent monetary policies.

The government cut the economic growth target for this year from 7.5% to “approximately” 7.0%, which represents the lowest target growth rate since 2004, while the 2015 inflation goal was lowered to 3.0% (2014: 3.5%). Although the M2 growth target was revised downward to 12.0% (2014: 13.0%), Premier Li declared that this figure could be “slightly higher” depending on the economy’s needs. Moreover, he affirmed that the government would adopt a “flexible approach” in the use of monetary policy tools, suggesting that more cuts to the main policy rates and the reserve requirement ratio could be in the pipeline.

The economy lost further momentum at the outset of the year according to data for the January–February period; growth in fixed-asset investment, industrial production and retail sales all marked multi-year lows. Moreover, the PMI was in contraction mode for the second consecutive month in February. At the annual National People’s Congress held on 5 March, Premier Li Keqiang unveiled the government’s macroeconomic goals for 2015. The majority of the targets were lowered from last year’s targets. This included cutting the growth target from last year’s 7.5% to 7.0%. Chinese authorities also signaled that they do not plan to prop up the economy with an aggressive fiscal stimulus package.

Although the economy will gradually slow in the coming years in line with the government’s strategy to promote more balanced economic growth, China will continue to be one of the top performers among the major global economies. Low oil prices and an accommodative monetary policy stance promise to spur growth this year. However, risks of a sharp correction in the property market and the high level of local government debt continue to loom over the economy. For this year, FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists maintained their growth projections stable at the previous month’s 7.0%. Next year, the panel sees growth at 6.8%.

Inflation rose from January’s 0.8% to 1.4% in February. Weak domestic

demand and falling energy prices are keeping inflationary pressures at bay. In an attempt to support growth, the Central Bank cut the one-year deposit and the one-year lending rates by 50 basis points each to 2.50% and 5.35% respectively at its 28 February policy meeting. FocusEconomics panelists have lowered their inflation forecasts for 2015 by 0.2 percentage points to 1.7%. In 2016, the panel sees inflation averaging 2.1%.

Outlook stable

LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages

Ricard TornéSenior Economist

2011-13 2014-16 2017-19Population (million): 1,354 1,374 1,395GDP (USD bn): 8,526 11,193 14,734GDP per capita (USD): 6,294 8,142 10,559GDP growth (%): 8.2 7.1 6.4Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -1.5 -2.2 -2.2Public Debt (% of GDP): 14.7 17.6 20.1Inflation (%): 3.5 1.9 2.8Current Account (% of GDP): 2.1 2.3 1.8External Debt (% of GDP): 9.0 9.1 9.5

China



April 2015

The goal for the total volume of merchandise exports and imports for this year was revised down from a 7.5% expansion in 2014 to a 6.0% increase. The target growth for nominal fixed-asset investment was lowered by 2.5 percentage points to 15.0%, while the growth target for retail sales was cut from 14.5% to 13.0%. The government kept last year’s goal of creating 10 million new urban jobs in order to maintain the registered urban unemployment rate at or below 4.5%. Moreover, the government will continue to develop low-income housing.

On the budgetary side, the Chinese government projected a fiscal deficit of CNY 1.62 trillion (USD 220 billion) for this year (equivalent to around 2.3% of GDP), which exceeds the CNY 1.35 trillion goal that was set for 2014 (around 2.1% of GDP). While the projected budget deficit would imply a mildly proactive fiscal policy for this year, it did not meet analysts’ expectations of a bolder stimulus from the government.

In the same conference, Premier Li unveiled new measures to boost household income and improve the social security system, which corroborate the perception that the government is willing to give consumption a greater role. That said, the government stated that it would increase investment in infrastructure projects and adopt a more accommodative approach to property market policies.

The Government Work Report listed a series of initiatives to push forward China’s reform agenda in many areas such as tax policies, state-owned enterprises, public administrations, the financial system, and price controls, among others. Premier Li also vowed to accelerate China’s integration into the global economy and restated that authorities would continue the anti-corruption campaign.

Overall, the targets unveiled by Premier Li were broadly in line with analysts’ expectations. However, some analysts warn that it will be difficult to achieve a growth rate of 7.0% this year as the economy is facing severe downside risks, particularly in the property sector.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists projection is in line with the Chinese government’s 2015 growth target and expect GDP to expand 7.0% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. In 2016, the panel foresees slightly lower economic growth of 6.8%.

REAL SECTOR | PMI in contraction mode for second consecutive month in FebruaryThe Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose slightly from 49.8% in January to 49.9% in February, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP), which publish the index. As a result, the PMI now rests below the 50%-threshold that separates contraction from expansion in the manufacturing sector for the second consecutive month. The print overshot the 49.7% that market analysts had expected.

February’s reading reflected deteriorations in three of the five subcategories that make up the index. Both manufacturing output and employment reached their lowest levels in two years, while the supplier delivery times category dipped into the red in February. Conversely, new orders and inventories improved over the previous month. Although input prices—a reliable leading indicator for consumer prices—hit a 3-month high, the variable remains firmly

Purchasing Managers’ Index

Note: Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index. Readings above 50% indicate an expansion in the manufacturing sector while readings below 50% indicate a contraction.Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP).

49

50

51

52

Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15

Actual GDP and Official Target | annual variation in %

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in % and official GDP growth target rate.Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS), Government of People’s Republic of China and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

6

8

10

12

14

16

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Official GDP growth target

Actual GDP growth

%



April 2015

entrenched below the 50%-threshold, thereby signaling strong disinflationary pressures.

REAL SECTOR | Moderation in investment continues at the outset of the yearIn the first two months of the year, urban fixed-asset investment excluding rural households (FAI) expanded 13.9% over the same period last year, which was well below the 15.7% increase recorded in 2014. The reading represented the weakest expansion in investment since 2001 and undershot the 15.0% increase that market analysts had expected. The deceleration mainly resulted from weaker growth in the secondary and the tertiary sectors. Investment in the primary sector, however, accelerated in the same period. In addition, the closely-watched real estate development indicator registered moderate again in the January-February period, reaching the lowest annual growth since July 2009.

A month-on-month comparison shows that investment in urban fixed assets rose a seasonally-adjusted 1.03% in February, which was broadly unchanged from the 1.05% increase tallied in January.

The government set a growth target of 15.0% for urban fixed-asset investment for this year. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect fixed-asset investment to grow 15.2% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s Consensus. In 2016, the panel sees fixed-asset investment growth slowing to 14.4%.

REAL SECTOR | Growth in industrial production falls to six-year low at the beginning of the yearIn the January-February period, industrial production expanded 6.8% over the same period last year, which was below the 7.9% increase recorded in December. Authorities usually report the January and February data together in order to smooth out distortions related to the Chinese New Year holiday. The increase tallied in the first two months of the year undershot the 7.7% expansion that market analysts had expected and represented the weakest gain since February 2009. The print mainly reflected a softer expansion in manufacturing output. Conversely, growth in electricity, gas and water supply as well as in mining accelerated in the same period.

On a monthly basis, industrial production expanded 0.45% in seasonally-adjusted terms in February, which was slightly down from the 0.47% increase tallied in January. As a result of the weak growth observed at the beginning of the year, the trend continues to point downward; annual average growth in industrial production ticked down from December’s 8.3% to 8.0% in February, which marks the lowest reading on record.

For 2015, FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect industrial production to grow 7.9%, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. In 2016, the panel sees industrial production growth declining to 7.3%.

REAL SECTOR | Growth in retail sales falls to nine-year low in January-FebruaryIn the first two months of the year, nominal retail sales grew 10.7% over the same period last year. The National Bureau of Statistics releases combined January and February figures to avoid seasonal effects stemming from the Chinese New Year holiday. The reading was below the 11.9% increase

Urban Fixed-Asset Investment | variation in %

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted urban fixed-asset investment index and annual growth rate (year-to-date) in %. Owing to seasonal factors related to the Lunar New Year, annual figures in January and February are reported together. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS).

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Annual, year-to-date (right scale)

%%

Industrial Production | variation in %

Note: Year-on-year variation of industrial production index and annual average growth rate in %. Owing to seasonal factors related to the Lunar New Year, annual figures in January and February are reported together. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and FocusEconomics calculations.

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April 2015

recorded in December and represented the softest expansion since February 2006. The deceleration, which undershot market expectations of an 11.6% expansion, reflected an outright contraction in oil and oil-related products as well as weaker growth in clothing and footwear.

Compared to the previous month, retail sales expanded a seasonally-adjusted 0.93% in February (January: +0.90% month-on-month). As a result of the disappointing figures observed at the outset of the year, annual average growth in retail sales fell from December’s 12.0% to 11.8% in February, which represented the lowest reading since July 2004.

The government set a retail sales growth target of 13.0% for this year. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect retail sales to increase 12.3% in 2015, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2016, the panel also foresees an expansion in retail sales of 12.3%.

REAL SECTOR | House prices in February record 10th consecutive dropHouse prices in 70 large- and medium-sized cities fell 0.4% in February over the previous month, according to a weighted average index calculated by Thomson Reuters from data issued by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). February’s drop matched the result recorded in the previous month. According to the NBS, the sales prices of newly-constructed residential buildings declined in 66 cities, increased in 2 cities and that of 2 cities remained flat.

On an annual basis, house prices declined 5.7%, which followed the 5.1% drop tallied in January and marked the lowest print since the current data series began in 2011. As a result of the continued downward trend in prices, annual average variation in house prices slowed from January’s 1.6% to 0.4% in February, which represented the lowest reading since April 2013.

MONETARY SECTOR | Growth in M2 and new loans improves in FebruaryNew yuan loans totaled CNY 1.02 trillion (USD 163 billion) in February, which was below the CNY 1.47 billion recorded in the previous month. The print, however, largely overshot the CNY 750 billion that market analysts had expected. In the 12 months up to February, new yuan loans totaled CNY 10.3 trillion (January: CNY 9.9 trillion), which represented the highest value on record.

Total social financing—a broader measure of liquidity in the economy that includes loans, bonds and other non-traditional instruments—eased from CNY 2.05 trillion in January to CNY 1.35 trillion in February. That said, the print came in above the CNY 1.00 trillion that market analysts had expected.

Annual M2 growth, the broadest measure of money supply in China, recovered strongly from January’s record low of 10.8% to 12.5% in February. The result was above the 11.0% increase the market had expected and represented the fastest growth in four months.

According to analysts, both money and new lending data improved in February as M2 accelerated markedly and credit growth beat market expectations. The main drivers behind February’s performance were a seasonal effect related to the Chinese New Year and a loser monetary policy stance from the People’s Bank of China. The fact that banks usually front-load their lending quota at the beginning of the year to protect their market share has also played a role.

Credit Growth | New Yuan Loans and M2

Note: New yuan loans in CNY billion and year-on-year variation of M2.Source: People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and FocusEconomics calculations.

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House Prices

Note: Month-on-month changes of the price index of newly constructed residential buildings in 70 large and medium cities and year-on-year variation in %. The index is calculated as a weighted average based on the population of the 70 cities.Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and Thomson Reuters.

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% %

Nominal Retail Sales | variation in %

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted nominal retail sales index and year-on-year variation in %. Owing to seasonal factors related to the Lunar New Year, annual figures in January and February are reported together. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS).

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April 2015

The government targeted a M2 growth target of 12.0% for this year. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect M2 to expand 12.1% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points over the previous month’s forecast. In 2016, the panel sees M2 growth of 11.6%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation increases in FebruaryIn February, consumer prices rose 1.2% over the previous month, which largely overshot the 0.3% increase in January. The monthly reading reflected higher prices for foodstuffs as well as for recreation, education and culture.

Annual inflation rose from January’s 0.8% to 1.4% in February, which overshot the 1.0% that market analysts had expected. January’s print had represented the lowest rate since November 2009. As a result of acceleration in inflation, the trend halted the downward trend in place since September 2014. Annual average inflation remained at the previous month’s 1.8% in February.

Meanwhile, the producer price index fell 4.8% in February over the same month last year (January: -4.3% year-on-year), which marked the lowest rate since October 2009. Moreover, the print exceeded the 4.3% decline that market analysts had expected. The annual average variation of the producer price index inched down from minus 2.1% in January to minus 2.3% in February.

While the rebound in inflation partially reflected a distortion from the Chinese New Year, which fell in February this year but was in January in 2014, analysts warn that disinflationary pressures are still intact and that it paves the way for further monetary policy easing in the weeks to come.

The government set an inflation target of 3.0% for 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect that inflation will average 1.7% in 2015, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2016, the panel sees inflation edging up to 2.1%. Meanwhile, the panel expects producer prices to decline 2.8% in 2015, which is down 0.8 percentage points from last month’s projection. In 2016, panelists see producer prices falling 0.4%.

MONETARY SECTOR | PBOC surprises again, cuts rates to multi-year lowsThe People’s Bank of China (PBOC) unexpectedly decided to make a symmetric cut to its benchmark lending and deposit rates at its 28 February monetary policy meeting. The measure was effective as of 1 March. The PBOC cut both rates by 25 basis points thus bringing the one-year deposit to 2.50% and the one-year lending rate to 5.35%. This move represented the second cut in four months and the two main rates are now at the lowest levels since 2010.

The PBOC also decided to allow more flexibility in deposit rates. The upper ceiling on the benchmark deposit rate was raised from 120% to 130%. While this move, combined with the rate cut, will likely squeeze bank margins, it is expected to provide more support to the real economy. Analysts also see these decisions as another step toward interest rate liberalization.

The PBOC, which had refrained from adjusting its main monetary policy tools since 2012, has cut both the benchmark rates as well as the reserve requirement ratio in the past four months. That said, analysts believe that further monetary easing is in the pipeline as the economy is failing to gain

Interest Rates and Reserve Requirement Ratio | in %

Note: 1-year lending rate, 1-year deposit rate and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for large banks in %.Source: People’s Bank of China (PBOC).

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%

Inflation | Consumer Price Index

Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation of consumer price index in %.Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS).

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April 2015

momentum and deflation is looming on the horizon. As Wang Tao, Chief China Economist at UBS points out:

Although one rate cut is helpful at the margin, it is insufficient to offset the passive tightening of monetary conditions so far, in our view. As highlighted in our earlier report, we think the PBC should cut benchmark lending rates by 100 bps this year to keep real rates from rising, but expect the PBC to only cut 50-75 bps. Therefore, more monetary accommodation is still warranted. The next rate cut could come in Q2 following persistent deflationary pressure and weak activity data. In addition to the rate cut, we also believe the central bank needs to cut RRR and use liquidity operations to help offset the drop in FX related liquidity, and ease loan quota and other lending restrictions.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the one-year lending rate and the one-year deposit rate to end the year at 5.12% and 2.27%, respectively. For next year, the panel sees the benchmark lending rate also at 5.12% and the benchmark deposit rate at 2.21%.

EXTERNAL SECTOR | Trade surplus soars as exports expand at double-digit rate in FebruaryIn February, exports jumped 48.3% over the same month last year, which largely contrasted the 3.3% drop tallied in January. The print exceeded the 14.0% increase that market analysts had expected and represented the fastest growth since May 2010. Imports plummeted 20.5% annually in February, which was below the 19.9% decline tallied in January. The print exceeded the 10.0% drop that market analysts had expected and represented the steepest decline since May 2009.

As a result of the underperformance in imports and the astonishing expansion in exports, the trade balance swung to a USD 60.6 billion surplus in February (January: USD 60.0 billion surplus) from the USD 22.5 billion deficit recorded in the same month last year. The print overshot the USD 6.0 billion surplus that market analysts had expected and represented the largest surplus on record. The 12-month moving sum of the trade surplus jumped from USD 409 billion in January to USD 492 billion in February, which represented the highest print on record.

Although February’s print mostly reflected the timing of the Lunar New Year, the disappointing import drop was mainly driven by falling commodity prices and faltering domestic demand. On the other hand, February’s stellar export growth suggests that the global economy is slowly recovering.

The government expects total merchandise trade to expand 6.0% this year. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project that merchandise exports will grow 6.6% in 2015, while imports will expand 4.0%, thus driving the trade balance to record a surplus of USD 457 billion. For 2016, the panel expects exports to increase 5.9% and imports to rise 5.6%, while the trade surplus will widen to USD 492 billion.

Merchandise Trade

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.Source: General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China and FocusEconomics calculations.

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1-week Interbank Rate | in %

Note: 1-week Shanghai Interbank Rate in %.Source: People’s Bank of China (PBOC).

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April 2015

Economic Indicators | 2010 - 2019

Annual Data 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Real Sector Population (million) 1,341 1,347 1,354 1,361 1,368 1,374 1,381 1,388 1,395 1,402GDP per capita (USD) 4,510 5,579 6,264 7,040 7,575 8,078 8,774 9,583 10,539 11,556GDP (USD bn) 6,048 7,516 8,481 9,579 10,360 11,102 12,118 13,302 14,701 16,199GDP (CNY bn) 40,151 47,310 51,947 58,802 63,646 69,897 76,144 83,144 90,898 99,087Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) 17.8 17.8 9.8 13.2 8.2 8.7 8.9 9.2 9.3 9.0Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 10.5 9.3 7.7 7.7 7.4 7.0 6.8 6.6 6.4 6.0Private Consumption (ann. var. in %) 10.6 14.6 10.2 8.7 7.7 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.3 7.0Nom. Fixed Urban Invest. (ann. var. in %) 24.5 24.0 20.6 19.6 15.7 15.2 14.4 14.2 13.9 13.6Industrial Production (annual var. in %) 15.7 13.9 10.0 9.7 8.3 7.9 7.3 7.2 7.1 7.0Nominal Retail Sales (annual var. in %) 18.4 17.1 14.3 13.1 12.0 12.3 12.3 11.7 11.0 10.8Unemployment (% of active population, eop) 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -1.7 -1.1 -1.6 -1.9 -1.8 -2.4 -2.5 -2.4 -2.2 -1.9Public Debt (% of GDP) 16.5 14.9 14.5 14.8 16.2 18.1 18.7 19.4 19.9 20.9Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M2 in %) 19.7 13.6 13.8 13.6 12.2 12.1 11.6 11.0 10.3 9.9New Yuan Loans (CNY billion) 7,924 7,481 8,203 8,882 9,783 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) 4.6 4.1 2.5 2.5 1.5 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 3.3 5.4 2.6 2.6 2.0 1.7 2.1 2.5 2.9 3.0Inflation (PPI, annual variation %, aop) 5.5 6.0 -1.7 -1.9 -1.9 -2.8 -0.4 0.7 1.9 2.01-Year Lending Rate (%, eop) 5.81 6.56 6.00 6.00 5.60 5.12 5.12 5.52 5.95 6.131-Year Deposit Rate (%, eop) 2.75 3.50 3.00 3.00 2.75 2.27 2.21 2.59 2.98 3.0210-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 3.86 3.52 3.58 4.63 3.65 3.47 3.48 3.57 3.69 3.86Stock Market (var. of SSE Comp. in %) -14.3 -21.7 3.2 -6.7 52.9 - - - - -Exchange Rate (CNY per USD, eop) 6.59 6.29 6.23 6.05 6.21 6.25 6.21 6.16 6.07 6.03Exchange Rate (CNY per USD, aop) 6.77 6.46 6.31 6.15 6.16 6.23 6.22 6.18 6.12 6.05External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 3.9 1.8 2.5 1.9 2.1 2.6 2.3 2.1 1.8 1.7Current Account Balance (USD bn) 238 136 215 183 214 290 282 277 265 268Trade Balance (USD bn) 184 154 231 258 383 457 492 530 568 615Exports (USD bn) 1,578 1,898 2,049 2,209 2,343 2,499 2,648 2,810 3,005 3,239Imports (USD bn) 1,394 1,744 1,819 1,952 1,962 2,042 2,156 2,280 2,436 2,624Exports (annual variation in %) 31.3 20.2 8.0 7.8 6.1 6.6 5.9 6.1 6.9 7.8Imports (annual variation in %) 38.7 25.0 4.3 7.3 0.5 4.0 5.6 5.8 6.9 7.7International Reserves (USD bn) 2,847 3,181 3,312 3,821 3,843 4,016 4,107 4,151 4,241 4,248International Reserves (months of imports) 24.5 21.9 21.9 23.5 23.5 23.6 22.9 21.8 20.9 19.4External Debt (USD bn) 549 695 737 863 942 1,000 1,121 1,250 1,392 1,550External Debt (% of GDP) 9.1 9.2 8.7 9.0 9.1 9.0 9.2 9.4 9.5 9.6 Quarterly Data Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 7.3 7.3 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.8Economic Growth (GDP, s.a. qoq var. in %) 1.9 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.7Nom. Fixed Urban Invest. (ann. var. in %, ytd) 16.1 15.7 15.5 15.4 15.3 15.2 15.0 14.8 14.5 14.4Industrial Production (annual var. in %) 8.0 7.6 7.6 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.5 7.4 7.3 7.1Nominal Retail Sales (annual var. in %) 11.9 11.7 12.2 12.3 12.2 12.2 12.3 12.2 12.2 12.2Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.31-Year Lending Rate (%, eop) 6.00 5.60 5.39 5.23 5.16 5.12 5.12 5.11 5.13 5.121-Year Deposit Rate (%, eop) 3.00 2.75 2.50 2.33 2.25 2.27 2.24 2.24 2.23 2.2110-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 4.03 3.65 3.58 3.56 3.51 3.47 3.45 3.47 3.50 3.48Exchange Rate (CNY per USD, eop) 6.14 6.21 6.22 6.24 6.24 6.25 6.22 6.21 6.21 6.21Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 2.8 1.9 2.0 3.1 2.8 3.0 1.7 2.8 2.4 2.4Current Account Balance (USD bn) 72.2 61.1 45.4 79.4 75.9 105.6 44.0 76.4 72.6 91.3Trade Balance (USD bn) 128.1 149.5 87.8 96.9 129.7 148.1 85.5 107.1 143.0 153.4Exports (USD bn) 635 646 527 615 676 685 536 653 722 732Imports (USD bn) 507 497 440 518 546 537 450 546 579 578 Monthly Data May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15Nom. Fixed Urban Invest. (ann. var. in %, ytd) 17.2 17.3 17.0 16.5 16.1 15.9 15.8 15.7 13.9 13.9Industrial Production (annual var. in %) 8.8 9.2 9.0 6.9 8.0 7.7 7.2 7.9 6.8 6.8Nominal Retail Sales (annual var. in %) 12.5 12.4 12.2 11.9 11.6 11.5 11.7 11.9 10.7 10.7House prices (mom variation in %) -0.2 -0.5 -0.9 -1.1 -1.0 -0.8 -0.5 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4Consumer Confidence (100-point threshold) 102.3 104.7 104.4 103.8 105.4 103.4 105.5 105.8 105.7 109.8PMI (50%-threshold) 50.8 51.0 51.7 51.1 51.1 50.8 50.3 50.1 49.8 49.9HSBC Manufacturing PMI (50-threshold) 49.4 50.7 51.7 50.2 50.2 50.4 50.0 49.6 49.7 50.7Money (annual variation of M2 in %) 13.4 14.7 13.5 12.8 12.9 12.6 12.3 12.2 10.8 12.5New Yuan Loans (CNY billion) 871 1,080 385 703 857 548 853 697 1,470 1,020Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.0 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.5 0.8 1.4Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %) -1.4 -1.1 -0.9 -1.2 -1.8 -2.2 -2.7 -3.3 -4.3 -4.8Exchange Rate (CNY per USD, eop) 6.25 6.20 6.17 6.14 6.14 6.11 6.14 6.21 6.25 6.27Exports (annual variation in %) 7.0 7.2 14.5 9.4 15.3 11.6 4.7 9.7 -3.3 48.3Imports (annual variation in %) -1.6 5.5 -1.6 -2.4 7.0 4.6 -6.7 -2.4 -19.9 -20.5



April 2015

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Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product

1 | Real GDP | 2000 - 2019 | var. in %

3 | GDP 2015 | evolution of forecasts

2 | Real GDP | Q1 12-Q4 16 | var. in % Real GDP growth in %


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.1 GDP, real annual variation in %. 2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.3 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in

%. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016Allianz 7.0 6.7ANZ 6.8 6.7Bank of China (HK) 7.2 7.2Bank of East Asia 7.0 -BBVA Research 7.0 6.6Berenberg 7.0 6.7BofA Merrill Lynch 7.0 6.8Capital Economics 7.0 6.5China First Capital 6.5 -CICC 7.3 7.5Citigroup Global Mkts 6.9 6.7Credit Agricole 7.1 6.9Credit Suisse 6.8 7.0Daiwa 6.9 6.5Danske Bank 7.2 -DBS Bank 7.0 6.8Deutsche Bank 7.0 6.7EIU 7.2 6.8Frontier Strategy Group 7.0 6.7Goldman Sachs 7.1 6.7Hang Seng Bank 7.0 6.8HSBC 7.3 7.4ING 7.0 7.0JPMorgan 7.0 7.2Mizuho Securities 7.0 6.8Morgan Stanley 7.0 7.2Nomura 6.8 6.5OCBC Wing Hang Bank Ltd. 7.1 -Oxford Economics 6.8 6.1RBS 7.0 7.2Standard Chartered 7.1 7.0UBS 6.8 6.5United Overseas Bank 6.8 6.8SummaryMinimum 6.5 6.1Maximum 7.3 7.5Median 7.0 6.8Consensus 7.0 6.8History30 days ago 7.0 6.860 days ago 7.0 6.890 days ago 7.0 6.9Additional ForecastsGovernment (Mar. 2015) 7.0 -IMF (Jan. 2015) 6.8 6.3ADB (Dec. 2014) 7.2 -

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5 | GDP 2015 | Panelist Distribution



April 2015

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

9 | Investment | evol. of forecasts

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Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Allianz - - - -ANZ - - - -Bank of China (HK) 8.0 8.0 16.0 16.0Bank of East Asia - - 14.5 -BBVA Research 8.1 8.1 13.5 12.5Berenberg - - - -BofA Merrill Lynch - - - -Capital Economics - - - -China First Capital 8.5 - 20.0 -CICC - - 14.0 -Citigroup Global Mkts 7.3 7.3 - -Credit Agricole - - - -Credit Suisse 7.8 8.1 - -Daiwa - - 14.5 14.0Danske Bank - - - -DBS Bank - - 15.0 14.5Deutsche Bank 7.5 7.3 15.0 14.0EIU 7.6 7.3 - -Frontier Strategy Group - - - -Goldman Sachs 7.3 - - -Hang Seng Bank - - 14.0 13.5HSBC 7.2 7.3 15.0 16.0ING - - - -JPMorgan - - - -Mizuho Securities - - 15.0 15.0Morgan Stanley - - - -Nomura - - 14.3 13.8OCBC Wing Hang Bank Ltd. - - 17.1 -Oxford Economics 7.2 7.2 - -RBS 7.6 8.0 - -Standard Chartered - - - -UBS 7.7 7.6 - -United Overseas Bank - - - -SummaryMinimum 7.2 7.2 13.5 12.5Maximum 8.5 8.1 20.0 16.0Median 7.6 7.5 15.0 14.0Consensus 7.7 7.6 15.2 14.4History30 days ago 7.7 7.6 15.3 14.460 days ago 7.8 7.7 15.3 14.590 days ago 7.8 7.8 16.0 15.6

Consumption Investmentvariation in % variation in %

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and FocusEconomics estimates. See below for details. Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.6 Private consumption, annual variation in %. Source: NBS and FocusEconomics estimates.7 Private consumption, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.8 Nominal urban fixed investment, annual variation in %. Source: NBS.9 Nominal urban fixed investment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Consumption and Investment



April 2015

Real Sector | Additional Forecasts

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016Allianz - - - - -2.3 -2.5ANZ - - - - - -Bank of China (HK) 8.0 8.2 4.1 4.0 -2.3 -2.0Bank of East Asia 8.7 - 4.1 - - -BBVA Research 7.5 7.2 4.0 4.0 -2.5 -2.5Berenberg 7.8 7.6 4.3 4.3 -2.0 -2.0BofA Merrill Lynch - - 4.1 4.1 -1.9 -1.9Capital Economics - - - - -2.5 -3.0China First Capital 10.0 - 4.0 - -1.7 -CICC 8.2 - - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts 7.4 7.1 4.1 4.3 -2.5 -2.5Credit Agricole - - - - - -Credit Suisse - - 4.1 4.0 -2.0 -2.0Daiwa 7.4 7.0 - - -2.3 -2.4Danske Bank - - 4.1 - -1.8 -DBS Bank - - - - -2.0 -2.0Deutsche Bank 7.6 7.0 - - -3.0 -3.0EIU 7.7 7.5 - - -2.5 -2.7Frontier Strategy Group - - 4.1 4.1 - -Goldman Sachs - - - - - -Hang Seng Bank 8.0 7.8 - - - -HSBC 7.8 8.2 4.1 4.1 -2.8 -2.6ING - - - - -3.0 -2.0JPMorgan - - - - -2.9 -Mizuho Securities 7.6 7.4 4.1 4.1 -2.7 -2.8Morgan Stanley - - - - -2.1 -2.1Nomura 7.1 6.8 - - -2.8 -2.8OCBC Wing Hang Bank Ltd. 8.7 - 4.1 - - -Oxford Economics 6.5 6.1 4.1 4.1 -2.8 -3.6RBS - - - - -2.9 -2.6Standard Chartered - - - - - -UBS - - - - -2.6 -2.5United Overseas Bank - - 4.1 4.1 -2.2 -2.2SummaryMinimum 6.5 6.1 4.0 4.0 -3.0 -3.6Maximum 10.0 8.2 4.3 4.3 -1.7 -1.9Median 7.8 7.3 4.1 4.1 -2.5 -2.5Consensus 7.9 7.3 4.1 4.1 -2.4 -2.5History30 days ago 8.0 7.4 4.1 4.1 -2.4 -2.560 days ago 8.0 7.5 4.1 4.1 -2.5 -2.690 days ago 8.2 7.8 4.1 4.1 -2.4 -2.6

Industry Unemployment Fiscal Balancevariation in % % of active pop. % of GDP

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security (MOHRSS). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.10 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: NBS.11 Industrial production, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.12 Urban unemployment, % of active population. Source: MOHRSS.13 Balance of central government as % of GDP. Source: NBS.

Industry, Unemployment and Fiscal Balance

13 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2000 2005 2010 2015

China

Asia (ex Japan)

12 | Unemployment | % of active pop.

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

2000 2005 2010 2015


11 | Industry | evol. of forecasts

7

8

9

10


2015 2016

10 | Industry | variation in %

0

5

10

15

20

2000 2005 2010 2015




April 2015

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

< 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.8 3.2 > 3.2

Monetary Sector | Inflation

14 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | in %

16 | Inflation 2015 | evolution of fcst

15 | Inflation | Q1 12-Q4 16 | in %


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.14 Inflation, annual average variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %.15 Inflation, annual variation of quarterly average consumer price index (CPI) in %.16 Inflation, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.17 Inflation, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.18 Inflation, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval

in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016Allianz 2.0 2.7ANZ 1.8 2.5Bank of China (HK) 1.5 2.1Bank of East Asia 1.5 -BBVA Research 2.2 2.5Berenberg 1.0 2.3BofA Merrill Lynch 1.7 2.8Capital Economics 1.0 2.0China First Capital 3.5 -CICC 1.4 2.0Citigroup Global Mkts 1.5 1.9Credit Agricole 2.4 2.8Credit Suisse 1.6 2.2Daiwa 1.5 1.0Danske Bank - -DBS Bank 1.3 2.2Deutsche Bank 1.8 2.7EIU 1.2 2.2Frontier Strategy Group 2.0 2.2Goldman Sachs 1.7 2.3Hang Seng Bank 2.0 2.0HSBC 1.2 1.3ING 1.0 1.0JPMorgan 1.5 -Mizuho Securities 1.8 1.5Morgan Stanley 2.0 2.4Nomura 1.5 1.8OCBC Wing Hang Bank Ltd. 3.0 -Oxford Economics 1.0 1.4RBS 1.2 3.0Standard Chartered 2.0 2.5UBS 1.2 1.8United Overseas Bank 1.5 2.0SummaryMinimum 1.0 1.0Maximum 3.5 3.0Median 1.5 2.2Consensus 1.7 2.1History30 days ago 1.9 2.260 days ago 2.0 2.390 days ago 2.3 2.5Additional ForecastsGovernment (Mar. 2015) 3.0 -IMF (Oct. 2014) 2.5 3.0ADB (Dec. 2014) 2.6 -

18 | Inflation 2015 | Panelist Distribution

Inflation | annual variation of consumer price index in %

0

1

2

3

4

5



-2

0

2

4

6

8

2000 2005 2010 2015


0

1

2

3

4

5



1

2

3

4

5

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16




April 2015

0%

20%

40%

60%

< 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.25 > 3.25

Monetary Sector | Interest Rate

19 | Interest Rate | 2000 - 2019 | in %

21 | Int. Rate 2015 | evolution of fcst

20 | Interest Rate | Q1 12-Q4 16 | in %


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.19 Interest rate, 1-year deposit rate in % (eop).20 Quarterly interest rate, 1-year deposit rate in % (eop).21 Interest rate, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.22 Interest rate, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.23 Interest rate, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast

interval in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016Allianz 2.50 2.30ANZ 2.25 2.25Bank of China (HK) 2.25 2.25Bank of East Asia 2.50 -BBVA Research 2.25 2.25Berenberg - -BofA Merrill Lynch 2.00 2.00Capital Economics 2.20 2.20China First Capital 3.00 -CICC 2.50 -Citigroup Global Mkts 2.25 2.25Credit Agricole - -Credit Suisse - -Daiwa 2.25 2.25Danske Bank - -DBS Bank - -Deutsche Bank 2.25 -EIU 2.40 3.00Frontier Strategy Group - -Goldman Sachs - -Hang Seng Bank 2.25 2.25HSBC - -ING 1.75 1.75JPMorgan - -Mizuho Securities 2.00 2.00Morgan Stanley - -Nomura 2.25 2.25OCBC Wing Hang Bank Ltd. - -Oxford Economics - -RBS - -Standard Chartered 2.25 -UBS 2.00 2.00United Overseas Bank 2.25 -SummaryMinimum 1.75 1.75Maximum 3.00 3.00Median 2.25 2.25Consensus 2.27 2.21History30 days ago 2.43 2.4160 days ago 2.45 2.4390 days ago 2.52 2.41

23 | Interest Rate 2015 | Panelist Distribution

Interest Rate | 1-Year Deposit Rate

1

2

3

4

5



1

2

3

4

5

2000 2005 2010 2015

1

2

3

4

5



2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16



April 2015

0%

20%

40%

60%

< 5.60 5.80 6.00 6.20 6.40 6.60 6.80 7.00 > 7.00

Monetary Sector | Exchange Rate

24 | Exchange Rate | CNY per USD

26 | CNY per USD 2015 | evol. of fcst

25 | Exchange Rate | CNY per USD

27 | CNY per USD 2016 | evol. of fcst

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from Thomson Reuters. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.24 Exchange rate, CNY per USD (eop).25 Quarterly exchange rate, CNY per USD (eop).26 Exchange rate, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.27 Exchange rate, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.28 Exchange rate, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016Allianz 6.15 6.10ANZ 6.20 6.18Bank of China (HK) 6.26 6.30Bank of East Asia - -BBVA Research 6.00 5.10Berenberg - -BofA Merrill Lynch 6.36 6.35Capital Economics 6.10 6.00China First Capital 6.10 -CICC 6.10 -Citigroup Global Mkts 6.28 6.12Credit Agricole 6.16 6.05Credit Suisse 6.40 6.46Daiwa 6.60 6.83Danske Bank - -DBS Bank 6.36 -Deutsche Bank 6.20 6.20EIU 6.16 6.11Frontier Strategy Group - -Goldman Sachs 6.20 6.18Hang Seng Bank 6.30 6.20HSBC 6.34 6.44ING 6.36 6.40JPMorgan 6.40 -Mizuho Securities 6.40 6.50Morgan Stanley - -Nomura 6.11 6.08OCBC Wing Hang Bank Ltd. 6.06 -Oxford Economics 6.41 6.38RBS 6.10 5.99Standard Chartered 6.12 -UBS 6.35 6.40United Overseas Bank 6.29 -SummaryMinimum 6.00 5.10Maximum 6.60 6.83Median 6.23 6.20Consensus 6.25 6.21History30 days ago 6.17 6.1260 days ago 6.16 6.1090 days ago 6.10 6.07

28 | CNY per USD 2015 | Panelist Distribution

Exchange Rate | CNY per USD

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0



6

7

8

9

2000 2005 2010 2015

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0



6.0

6.1

6.2

6.3

6.4

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16



April 2015

External Sector | Current Account and Trade Balance

200

300

400

500


2015 2016

32 | Trade Balance | evol. of forecasts

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

2000 2005 2010 2015

Trade BalanceImportsExports

31 | Trade Balance | USD bn

0

4

8

12

2000 2005 2010 2015


29 | Current Account | % of GDP

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8


2015 2016

30 | Current Account | evol. of fcst

Current Account and Trade Balance

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Allianz 1.9 1.5 - -ANZ - - - -Bank of China (HK) 2.1 2.2 459 494Bank of East Asia - - 432 -BBVA Research 2.8 2.5 - -Berenberg 2.4 2.5 457 499BofA Merrill Lynch 2.4 1.8 408 387Capital Economics - - - -China First Capital - - - -CICC - - 523 -Citigroup Global Mkts 2.7 2.5 460 508Credit Agricole 1.1 0.5 - -Credit Suisse 3.2 3.3 - -Daiwa 2.3 2.2 374 371Danske Bank 2.7 - - -DBS Bank 2.7 2.7 425 457Deutsche Bank 3.4 3.3 - -EIU 2.1 1.7 491 497Frontier Strategy Group - - - -Goldman Sachs 2.7 2.2 - -Hang Seng Bank - - 496 587HSBC 3.0 3.2 367 431ING - - - -JPMorgan 2.6 - - -Mizuho Securities 2.2 1.8 462 510Morgan Stanley 2.8 3.0 - -Nomura 2.5 1.7 549 607OCBC Wing Hang Bank Ltd. - - - -Oxford Economics 3.6 3.4 - -RBS 4.6 2.7 - -Standard Chartered 2.8 2.9 - -UBS 2.5 2.4 499 554United Overseas Bank 1.6 1.3 - -SummaryMinimum 1.1 0.5 367 371Maximum 4.6 3.4 549 607Median 2.7 2.4 459 498Consensus 2.6 2.3 457 492History30 days ago 2.7 2.3 433 47560 days ago 2.7 2.5 425 45190 days ago 2.6 2.5 408 419

Current Account Trade Balance% of GDP USD bn

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China (Customs) and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.29 Current account balance, as % of GDP. Source: SAFE. 30 Current account balance, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.31 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD. Source: Customs.32 Trade balance, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.



April 2015

External Sector | Exports and Imports

Exports and Imports

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Allianz - - - -ANZ - - - -Bank of China (HK) 2,549 2,740 2,090 2,246Bank of East Asia 2,529 - 2,098 -BBVA Research - - - -Berenberg 2,486 2,660 2,029 2,161BofA Merrill Lynch 2,452 2,550 2,044 2,163Capital Economics - - - -China First Capital - - - -CICC 2,554 - 2,031 -Citigroup Global Mkts 2,499 2,629 2,039 2,121Credit Agricole - - - -Credit Suisse - - - -Daiwa 2,396 2,521 2,023 2,150Danske Bank - - - -DBS Bank 2,478 2,670 2,053 2,213Deutsche Bank - - - -EIU 2,474 2,679 1,983 2,181Frontier Strategy Group - - - -Goldman Sachs - - - -Hang Seng Bank 2,532 2,684 2,036 2,098HSBC 2,514 2,703 2,147 2,272ING - - - -JPMorgan - - - -Mizuho Securities 2,516 2,667 2,054 2,157Morgan Stanley - - - -Nomura 2,486 2,573 1,937 1,966OCBC Wing Hang Bank Ltd. - - - -Oxford Economics - - - -RBS - - - -Standard Chartered - - - -UBS 2,518 2,695 2,019 2,140United Overseas Bank - - - -SummaryMinimum 2,396 2,521 1,937 1,966Maximum 2,554 2,740 2,147 2,272Median 2,506 2,668 2,038 2,159Consensus 2,499 2,648 2,042 2,156History30 days ago 2,499 2,644 2,066 2,16960 days ago 2,501 2,641 2,065 2,19190 days ago 2,515 2,661 2,106 2,243

Exports ImportsUSD bn USD bn

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China (Customs). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.33 Exports, annual variation in %. 34 Exports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.35 Imports, annual variation in %. 36 Imports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800


2015 2016

36 | Imports | evol. of forecasts

-30

0

30

60

2000 2005 2010 2015


35 | Imports | variation in %

-30

0

30

60

2000 2005 2010 2015


33 | Exports | variation in %

2,400

2,600

2,800

3,000


2015 2016

34 | Exports | evolution of fcst



April 2015

External Sector | Additional forecasts

950

1,000

1,050

1,100

1,150


2015 2016

41 | External Debt | evol. of forecasts

5

10

15

20

25

2000 2005 2010 2015

China

Asia (ex Japan)

40 | External Debt | % of GDP

5

10

15

20

25

30

2000 2005 2010 2015


38 | Int. Reserves | months of imports

3,800

4,000

4,200

4,400

4,600


2015 2016

39 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst

International Reserves and External Debt

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Allianz 4,150 4,300 - -ANZ - - - -Bank of China (HK) 4,152 4,277 919 974Bank of East Asia - - - -BBVA Research - - - -Berenberg - - - -BofA Merrill Lynch 4,089 4,105 1,045 1,148Capital Economics - - - -China First Capital - - - -CICC - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts 4,174 4,447 1,044 1,149Credit Agricole - - - -Credit Suisse 3,964 4,054 773 732Daiwa 3,700 3,580 - -Danske Bank - - - -DBS Bank 4,266 4,719 - -Deutsche Bank 4,021 4,055 1,164 1,344EIU 3,847 3,819 1,063 1,207Frontier Strategy Group - - - -Goldman Sachs - - - -Hang Seng Bank - - - -HSBC 3,853 3,858 1,071 1,191ING - - - -JPMorgan 4,145 - 822 -Mizuho Securities - - - -Morgan Stanley - - - -Nomura - - - -OCBC Wing Hang Bank Ltd. - - - -Oxford Economics 3,761 3,849 1,100 1,220RBS 4,045 4,226 - -Standard Chartered - - - -UBS 4,050 4,100 - -United Overseas Bank - - - -SummaryMinimum 3,700 3,580 773 732Maximum 4,266 4,719 1,164 1,344Median 4,048 4,100 1,045 1,170Consensus 4,016 4,107 1,000 1,121History30 days ago 4,151 4,243 1,017 1,11660 days ago 4,191 4,278 1,010 1,08790 days ago 4,226 4,290 999 1,066

Int. Reserves External DebtUSD bn USD bn

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE). See below for details. Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 38 International reserves, months of imports. Source: PBOC.39 International reserves, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.40 External debt as % of GDP. Source: SAFE.41 External debt, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.



April 2015

Fact Sheet

Japan9.8%

U.S.A.7.1%

Other EU-27

6.6%

Germany5.1%

Other Asia ex-Japan

17.4%Korea9.2%

LatAm6.8%

Other38.0%

U.S.A.17.2%

Japan7.4%

EU-2716.4%

Other Asia ex-Japan

18.6%

Hong Kong15.8%

LatAm6.4%

Other18.3%

Other8.2%

Manufact. Products55.6%

Ores & Metals13.5%

Mineral Fuels17.5%

Food5.2%

Other6.2%


Trade Structure

Primary markets | share in %

Primary products | share in %

Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

General Data

Economic Infrastructure

Political Data

Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings

Strengths Weaknesses

• Huge domestic market • Nascent legal system• Low fiscal deficit and public debt • Entangled bureaucracy• Competitive labor costs • Financial system vulnerability• Developed infrastructure

.

• Social tensions due to rising inequality• Major international

manufacturing hub • Overcapacity in certain industries

Energy (2012)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 95,198Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 110,604Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 4,768Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 4,468Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 4,372Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 9,980CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 8,548

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: Aa3 StableS&P: AA- StableFitch Ratings: A+ Stable

Telecommunication (2013) Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 19.3Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 88.7Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 45.8Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 13.6

Transportation (2013) Airports: 507Railways (km): 86,000Roadways (km): 4,106,387Waterways (km): 110,000Chief Ports: Shanghai, Canton, Ningbo

Official name: People's Republic of ChinaCapital: Beijing (20.0 m)Other cities: Shanghai (22.3 m)

Tianjin (11.1 m)Guangzhou (11.1 m)

Shenzhen (10.4 m)Area (km2): 9,596,961Population (million, 2014 est.): 1,368Population density (per km2, 2014): 141.1Pop. growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 0.44Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 75.2Illiteracy rate (%, 2010): 4.9Language: Mandarin ChineseMeasures: Metric & local systemsTime: GMT+8

President: Xi JinpingPrime Minister: Li KeqiangLatest National People's Congress: 5-15 March 2015Next National People's Congress: March 2016Chairman of the PBOC: Zhou Xiaochuan

China in the Region

Population | %-share in Asia GDP | %-share in Asia

China60.5%

India12.3%

Korea7.9%

Indonesia5.2%

Taiwan3.1%

Other11.0%

China41.1%

India37.8%

Indonesia7.6%

Philippines3.0%

Vietnam2.7%

Other7.8%

Economic Structure

GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %

0

20

40

60

80

1002005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Net Exports

Investment

GovernmentConsumption

PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Agriculture

Industry

Services

FOCUSECONOMICS Hong Kong


April 2015

Hong Kong

REAL SECTOR | GDP slows in Q4 on worsening external sectorIn the fourth quarter, the economy expanded 2.2% over the same quarter of the previous year, which undershot the 2.7% increase tallied in Q3. That said, the print came in above the 2.0% rise that FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists had expected. In 2014, the economy expanded 2.3%, which was below the 2.9% increase observed in 2013.

The deceleration in Q4 mainly reflected a deterioration in the external sector, while domestic demand improved on strong investment growth. Private consumption grew 3.8% in Q4, which was down from the 4.1% tallied in Q3. Public spending slowed to a 3.3% rise in Q4 (Q3: +3.7% year-on-year). In contrast, gross fixed investment rebounded strongly and expanded 4.0% in Q4 (Q3: -3.3% yoy).

On the external front, exports of goods and services grew a mild 0.3% in Q4, which was below the 1.0% increase tallied in Q3. Conversely, imports accelerated from a 0.7% increase in Q3 to a 1.2% in Q4. As a result, the

Economic activity lost steam in the final quarter of 2014. GDP expanded 2.2% annually in Q4, which was down from the 2.7% increase tallied in Q3. The economy moderated due to weaker growth and the ongoing crackdown on corruption in mainland China, the world’s second largest economy, which is dampening retail sales in the island. More recent data paint a mixed picture of the economy. While the PMI jumped back to positive territory in February, retail sales fell at the fastest pace in nearly six years in January. On 27 February, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority rolled out further regulation to cool Hong Kong’s property market and to maintain the stability of the financial market. The measures include larger down payments and tighter conditions for second-home buyers.

Concerns about softer domestic demand growth in mainland China and a disorderly correction of the island’s booming property market following the U.S. monetary policy adjustment are weighing on the outlook. On the other hand, the ongoing recovery in the United States and a more expansionary fiscal stance will support Hong Kong’s economic performance. FocusEconomics panelists forecast economic growth of 2.6% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. The panel sees GDP expanding 2.9% in 2016.

Inflation rose from 4.1% in January to 4.6% in February. While falling oil prices and subdued domestic growth are exerting downward pressure on inflation, the government’s one-off relief measures to prop up the economy are pushing up prices in the island. Panelists expect inflation to average 3.4% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. For 2016, the panel sees inflation moderating slightly to 3.3%.

Outlook moderates


Ricard TornéSenior Economist

Hong Kong

2011-13 2014-16 2017-19Population (million): 7.2 7.3 7.4GDP (USD bn): 262 307 368GDP per capita (USD): 36,529 41,996 49,486GDP growth (%): 3.1 2.6 3.3Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): 2.5 1.3 1.6Inflation (%): 4.6 3.7 3.1Current Account (% of GDP): 2.9 2.3 2.9External Debt (% of GDP): 404 418 393

Gross Domestic Product | variation in %

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.Source: Census and Statistics Department Hong Kong and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015

%



April 2015

external sector’s net contribution to overall economic growth swung from plus 0.7 percentage points in Q3 to minus 2.1 percentage points in Q3.

A quarter-on-quarter comparison confirms the deceleration suggested by the annual data; the economy moderated from a seasonally-adjusted 1.4% increase in Q3 to a 0.4% expansion in Q4.

The government expects the economy to grow between 1.0% and 3.0% in 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP expanding 2.6% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month’s estimate. For 2016, the panel expects the economy to increase 2.9%.

REAL SECTOR | PMI jumps back to positive territory in FebruaryThe HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose from 49.4 in January to 50.7 in February, which marked the highest reading in one year. As a result, the PMI jumped above the 50-threshold that separates contraction from expansion in business conditions.

February’s healthy upturn was mainly driven by large increases in output and new orders, which reached a one-year high. The negative notes were a deterioration in business from Mainland China and further cuts in staffing. Regarding price developments, both input costs and output charges rose slightly in February. HSBC analysts pointed out that, “looking ahead, rising backlogs may encourage firms to hire additional staff in upcoming months, particularly if the current run of new order growth is sustained and input cost inflation remains modest.”

REAL SECTOR | Retail sales record largest drop in nearly six years in JanuaryIn January, retail sales fell 13.9% over the same month last year, which followed the revised 1.4% decline tallied in December (previously reported: -1.3% year-on-year). While January’s drop represented the steepest contraction since February 2009, it also reflected the different timing of the Chinese New Year, which fell in mid-February this year and in late January in 2014. The print exceeded the 5.5% drop that markets had expected. The deterioration tallied in January was felt in almost all the subcategories of the index, with the jewelry and luxury goods sector and sales at supermarkets recording the largest contractions.

A government spokesman explained that in order to assess January’s drop, “it would be more meaningful to examine the retail sales figures for January and February combined for a clearer picture of the underlying trend” due to disruptions associated to the Chinese New Year. The official also noted that, “ahead, the near-term performance of retail sales will continue to hinge on the labour market conditions and inbound tourism growth.”

Retail sales rose a seasonally-adjusted 2.5% in the three-month period up to January compared to the previous three months ending in October. The reading followed the 3.9% increase recorded in the previous month.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect retail sales to expand 2.1% in 2015, which is down 2.0 percentage points over last month’s projection. For 2016, the panel sees retail sales growing 5.8%.

Retail Sales | variation in %

Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average variation in %.Source: Census and Statistics Department Hong Kong.

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15

Year-on-year Annual average

%


Note: HSBC Hong Kong Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). A reading above 50 indicates an expansion in business activity while a value below 50points to a contraction. Source: HSBC and Markit.

46

48

50

52

54




April 2015

MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation increases in FebruaryAnnual inflation rose from 4.1% in January to 4.6% in February. The print overshot the 4.2% that markets had anticipated. According to the Census and Statistics Department, February’s result was driven by higher prices for electricity, gas and water as well as for housing. A government spokesman explained that, “inflation remained on an easing trend in early 2015. Taking the first two months of 2015 together to neutralise the distortions by the difference in timing of the Lunar New Year between this year and last year, the year-on-year rate of the underlying Composite CPI inflation eased to 2.6% from 3.1% in December 2014.”

Consumer prices increased 0.1% in February over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, which matched the result tallied in January. Meanwhile, annual average variation in consumer prices stabilized in February at the previous month’s 4.4%.

The government expects inflation to average 3.0% in 2015. Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation to average 3.4% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel expects annual average inflation to moderate to 3.3%.


Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation of consumer price index in %.Source: Census and Statistics Department Hong Kong.

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0


Year-on-year

Annual average

%



April 2015


Annual Data 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Real Sector Population (million) 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.5GDP per capita (USD) 32,422 34,934 36,584 38,069 39,887 41,926 44,176 46,729 49,428 52,301GDP (USD bn) 229 248 263 275 290 306 325 345 367 391GDP (HKD bn) 1,776 1,934 2,037 2,132 2,246 2,411 2,559 2,724 2,898 3,086Economic Growth (Nom. GDP, ann. var. in %) 7.1 8.9 5.3 4.7 5.3 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.4 6.5Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. in %) 6.8 4.8 1.7 2.9 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.4Domestic Demand (annual variation in %) 7.0 6.4 3.9 3.9 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.7Private Consumption (annual variation in %) 6.1 8.4 4.1 4.6 2.7 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.4Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) 7.7 10.2 6.8 2.2 -0.3 3.9 3.3 4.0 3.8 3.4Real Retail Sales (annual variation in %) 15.4 18.4 7.2 10.6 0.6 2.1 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.1Unemployment (aop, % of active population) 4.4 3.5 3.3 3.4 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 4.3 3.8 3.2 0.6 1.7 1.2 0.9 1.4 1.6 1.7Public Debt (% of GDP) 5.5 6.1 6.8 6.7 - - - - - -Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M2 in %) 8.1 12.9 11.1 12.4 9.5 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) 2.9 5.7 3.8 4.3 4.8 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 2.3 5.3 4.1 4.3 4.4 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.1Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %, aop) 6.0 8.3 0.1 -3.1 -1.7 - - - - -Discount Rate (%, eop) 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.06 1.95 2.96 3.39 3.5391-Day HIBOR (%, eop) 0.28 0.38 0.40 0.38 0.38 0.92 1.57 2.45 2.99 3.3510-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 3.04 1.53 0.65 2.35 1.92 2.08 2.75 3.61 4.30 4.66Stock Market (variation of HSI in %) 5.3 -20.0 22.9 2.9 1.3 - - - - -Exchange Rate (HKD per USD, eop) 7.77 7.77 7.75 7.75 7.75 7.79 7.79 7.79 7.79 7.79Exchange Rate (HKD per USD, aop) 7.77 7.78 7.76 7.76 7.75 7.77 7.79 7.79 7.79 7.79External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 7.0 5.6 1.6 1.5 1.9 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.0Current Account Balance (USD bn) 16.0 13.8 4.1 4.2 5.6 7.3 8.6 9.7 10.6 11.8Trade Balance (USD bn) -43.1 -54.8 -61.6 -64.8 -70.9 -67.1 -69.6 -70.7 -74.2 -79.2Exports (USD bn) 390 429 443 459 474 497 528 563 603 648Imports (USD bn) 434 484 505 524 545 565 598 634 678 727Exports (annual variation in %) 22.5 9.9 3.3 3.6 3.2 4.9 6.1 6.7 7.1 7.4Imports (annual variation in %) 24.7 11.6 4.3 3.8 4.0 3.6 5.8 6.1 6.9 7.4International Reserves (USD bn) 269 285 317 311 329 337 353 356 373 393International Reserves (months of imports) 7.4 7.1 7.5 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.1 6.7 6.6 6.5External Debt (USD bn) 879 985 1,031 1,161 1,291 1,241 1,309 1,376 1,444 1,511External Debt (% of GDP) 385 396 392 422 446 405 403 399 393 386 Quarterly Data Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. in %) 2.7 2.2 2.4 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.8 2.7 3.0 3.0Economic Growth (GDP, s.a. qoq var. in %) 1.4 0.4 - - - - - - - -Real Retail Sales (annual variation in %) 1.4 3.1 - - - - - - - -Business Confidence Index (0-point threshold) 6.0 7.0 - - - - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 4.8 5.1 3.8 3.3 3.3 3.0 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.1Discount Rate (%, eop) 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.71 0.90 1.06 1.25 1.58 1.93 1.9591-Day HIBOR (%, eop) 0.38 0.38 0.43 0.51 0.64 0.92 1.18 1.24 1.35 1.5710-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 2.05 1.92 1.68 1.79 1.93 2.08 2.09 2.10 2.25 2.75Trade Balance (USD bn) -16.0 -20.8 -13.1 -15.8 -18.4 -20.0 -14.8 -15.7 -18.4 -18.9Exports (USD bn) 127 125 111 125 132 134 116 131 141 142Imports (USD bn) 143 146 124 141 150 154 131 147 159 161Exports (annual variation in %) 5.9 1.2 5.6 7.6 3.9 7.0 4.4 5.0 6.5 6.1Imports (annual variation in %) 5.8 3.3 2.5 4.8 5.2 5.5 5.3 4.4 5.7 4.6 Monthly Data May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15Real Retail Sales (annual variation in %) -4.6 -7.5 -4.5 2.8 6.6 4.3 7.6 -1.4 -13.9 -Unemployment (% of active population) 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1HSBC PMI (50-point threshold) 49.1 50.1 50.4 49.6 49.8 47.7 48.8 50.3 49.4 50.7Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.2 0.2 0.4 -0.4 0.5 0.7 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.1Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 3.7 3.6 4.0 3.9 6.6 5.2 5.1 4.9 4.1 4.6Trade Balance (USD bn) -5.5 -5.6 -5.4 -4.1 -6.5 -6.4 -6.7 -7.6 -7.6 -Exports (annual variation in %) 4.9 11.4 6.8 6.4 4.5 2.7 0.4 0.6 3.1 -Imports (annual variation in %) 3.7 7.6 7.5 3.4 6.3 5.6 2.4 1.9 15.0 -



April 2015


1 | Real GDP | 2000 - 2019 | var. in %







8 | Investment | evolution of forecasts

Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Census and Statistics Department Hong Kong (C&SD) and the Treasury of Hong Kong (Treasury). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: C&SD.2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.

Source: C&SD.3 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 Private consumption, annual variation in %. Source: C&SD.6 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %. Source: C&SD.7 Private consumption, change in 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last

18 months.8 Gross fixed investment, change in 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the

last 18 months.9 Retail sales, annual variation in %. Source: C&SD.10 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: C&SD.11 Consolidated fiscal balance as % of GDP. Source: Treasury.12 Retail sales, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18

months.13 Unemployment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18

months.14 Consolidated fiscal balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016

forecasts during the last 18 months.

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016ANZ 2.9 3.6Bank of China (HK) 2.6 3.1Bank of East Asia 2.4 -BBVA Research 3.3 3.9BofA Merrill Lynch 2.1 3.3Capital Economics 3.0 3.0Citigroup Global Mkts 2.6 3.0Credit Agricole 3.1 2.8Credit Suisse 1.6 2.2Daiwa 1.8 1.6DBS Bank 2.8 3.0Deutsche Bank 2.9 3.0EIU 2.4 2.1Goldman Sachs 2.9 3.0Hang Seng Bank 2.6 3.2HSBC 2.5 3.0ING 2.5 2.5JPMorgan 2.6 3.0Morgan Stanley 2.3 2.5Nomura 2.5 3.0OCBC Wing Hang Bank Ltd. 3.2 -Oxford Economics 2.8 3.2Standard Chartered 3.0 3.5UBS 2.5 2.0United Overseas Bank 2.6 -SummaryMinimum 1.6 1.6Maximum 3.3 3.9Median 2.6 3.0Consensus 2.6 2.9History30 days ago 2.7 2.960 days ago 2.7 2.990 days ago 2.8 3.1Additional ForecastsGovernment (Feb. 2015) 1.0-3.0 -IMF (Oct. 2014) 3.3 3.5ADB (Dec. 2014) 3.2 -

-3

0

3

6

9

12

2000 2005 2010 2015

Hong KongAsia (ex Japan)World

0

2

4

6

8

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

Hong KongAsia (ex Japan)World

1

2

3

4

5



1

2

3

4

5



2

3

4

5


2015 2016

-3

0

3

6

9

12

2000 2005 2010 2015

Hong KongAsia (ex Japan)

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015


3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0


2015 2016



April 2015


12 | Retail Sales | evolution of fcst

9 | Retail Sales | variation in %

13 | Unemployment | evolution of fcst


14 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst


0

5

10

15


2015 2016

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8


2015 2016

2

4

6

8

2000 2005 2010 2015


0

1

2

3


2015 2016

-8

-4

0

4

8

2000 2005 2010 2015

Hong Kong

Asia (ex Japan)

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016ANZ - - - - - - - -Bank of China (HK) 4.5 4.5 4.0 6.5 3.4 3.6 1.5 2.0Bank of East Asia 1.5 - 3.0 - 3.5 - - -BBVA Research 3.9 3.9 4.0 3.5 3.4 3.4 2.0 1.5BofA Merrill Lynch - - - - - - 1.3 1.3Capital Economics - - - - - - 0.5 -Citigroup Global Mkts 1.7 1.5 - - 3.6 3.5 0.7 1.0Credit Agricole - - - - - - - -Credit Suisse - - - - 3.2 3.2 1.6 0.7Daiwa - - - - - - 1.0 0.5DBS Bank 5.7 6.4 2.0 3.0 3.3 3.3 - -Deutsche Bank 2.6 3.0 1.7 2.6 3.5 3.5 2.9 3.0EIU 3.4 1.3 2.7 -1.7 3.3 4.0 0.1 -0.8Goldman Sachs - - - - - - - -Hang Seng Bank 2.8 3.5 2.0 6.5 3.5 4.0 - -HSBC 2.9 2.8 16.3 4.3 3.3 3.3 1.6 0.7ING - - - - - - - -JPMorgan 1.8 - 0.3 - - - 1.0 -Morgan Stanley - - - - - - 0.4 0.4Nomura 3.1 3.2 3.4 4.0 3.4 3.4 1.6 -1.0OCBC Wing Hang Bank Ltd. 3.3 - 3.9 - 3.5 - - -Oxford Economics 4.1 3.7 4.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 1.8 1.4Standard Chartered - - - - - - - -UBS 3.2 1.5 3.0 1.4 - - 0.7 0.7United Overseas Bank - - - - 3.3 - 0.7 -SummaryMinimum 1.5 1.3 0.3 -1.7 3.2 3.2 0.1 -1.0Maximum 5.7 6.4 16.3 6.5 3.6 4.0 2.9 3.0Median 3.1 3.2 3.0 3.4 3.4 3.5 1.2 0.7Consensus 3.2 3.2 3.9 3.3 3.4 3.5 1.2 0.9History30 days ago 2.8 2.8 3.6 4.2 3.4 3.5 0.9 0.760 days ago 2.8 2.8 3.6 3.9 3.4 3.5 0.9 0.790 days ago 2.8 2.9 3.7 3.9 3.5 3.6 1.0 0.7

Fiscal Balance % of active pop. % of GDP

Consumption Investmentvariation in % variation in %

Unemployment



April 2015


15 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | in %


19 | Producer Prices | variation in %

21 | MSCI Price Index

16 | Inflation | Q1 12-Q4 16 | in % Inflation | annual avg. var. of consumer price index in %


20 | Money | variation in %

22 | Stock Market | HSI

Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the Census and Statistics Department Hong Kong (C&SD) and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 15 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop).

Source: C&SD.16 Inflation, annual variation of quarterly average consumer price index

(CPI) in %. Source: C&SD.17 Inflation, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.18 Inflation, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.19 Producer price index, annual variation in % (aop). 2000-2014. Source:

C&SD.20 Money, annual variation of M2 in %. 2000-2014 Source: HKMA.21 Daily MSCI Price index in USD. Jan. 2010 until end of previous week.

Source: MSCI Barra.22 Daily index levels, Hang Seng Index (HSI). Jan. 2010 until end of

previous week. Source: Hang Seng Bank.

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016ANZ 3.8 3.4Bank of China (HK) 3.0 3.0Bank of East Asia 3.5 -BBVA Research 3.5 3.0BofA Merrill Lynch 4.2 4.3Capital Economics 3.5 3.5Citigroup Global Mkts 3.7 3.5Credit Agricole 3.8 3.8Credit Suisse 3.5 3.5Daiwa 2.0 1.0DBS Bank 3.7 3.5Deutsche Bank 3.5 3.2EIU 3.2 2.7Goldman Sachs 2.8 3.2Hang Seng Bank 3.5 4.0HSBC 3.2 3.9ING 3.5 3.5JPMorgan 3.5 -Morgan Stanley 3.6 2.5Nomura 3.0 4.2OCBC Wing Hang Bank Ltd. 3.5 -Oxford Economics - -Standard Chartered 4.0 4.0UBS 2.3 2.0United Overseas Bank 3.6 -SummaryMinimum 2.0 1.0Maximum 4.2 4.3Median 3.5 3.5Consensus 3.4 3.3History30 days ago 3.4 3.260 days ago 3.4 3.190 days ago 3.5 3.2Additional ForecastsGovernment (Feb. 2015) 3.0 -IMF (Oct. 2014) 3.8 3.5ADB (Dec. 2014) 3.7 -

-4

0

4

8

12

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

JanJulJanJulJanJulJanJulJanJulJan

0

1

2

3

4

5



-5

0

5

10

2000 2005 2010 2015


-10

0

10

20

30

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

26,000


0

1

2

3

4

5



2

3

4

5

6

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16




April 2015

Monetary Sector | Interest Rate and Exchange Rate

23 | Interest Rate | 2000 - 2019 | in %


27 | Exchange Rate | HKD per USD

29 | HKD per USD 2015 | evol. of fcst

24 | Interest Rate | Q1 12-Q4 16 | in % 91-Day HIBOR and Exchange Rate


28 | Exchange Rate | HKD per USD

30 | HKD per USD 2016 | evol. of fcst

Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary and external sector data are from the Census and Statistics Department Hong Kong (C&SD), the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) and Thomson Reuters. See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 23 Interest rate, 91-day HIBOR in % (eop). Source: HKMA.24 Quarterly interest rate, 91-day HIBOR in % (eop). Source: HKMA.25 Interest rate, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.26 Interest rate, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.27 Exchange rate, HKD per USD (eop). Source: Thomson Reuters.28 Quarterly exchange rate, HKD per USD (eop). Source: Thomson

Reuters.29 Exchange rate, evolution of 2015 forecast during the last 18 months.30 Exchange rate, evolution of 2016 forecast during the last 18 months.31 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: HKMA.32 Trade balance, imports and exports, in USD bn. Source: C&SD.33 International reserves, months of imports. Source: C&SD.34 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016

forecasts during the last 18 months.35 Exports, annual variation in %. Source: C&SD.36 International reserves in USD bn., evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecast

during the last 18 months.

7.7

7.8

7.9

8.0



7.7

7.8

7.9

8.0



0

1

2

3



7.70

7.75

7.80

7.85

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

7.70

7.75

7.80

7.85

2000 2005 2010 2015

0

2

4

6

2000 2005 2010 2015

0

1

2

3

4



Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016ANZ - - 7.78 7.80Bank of China (HK) - - 7.77 7.76Bank of East Asia 1.46 - - -BBVA Research - - 7.80 7.80BofA Merrill Lynch 0.70 1.00 7.82 7.80Capital Economics - - 7.80 -Citigroup Global Mkts 0.60 1.30 7.79 7.75Credit Agricole - - 7.77 7.77Credit Suisse 0.80 1.00 7.80 7.80Daiwa - - 7.79 7.79DBS Bank 0.70 - 7.77 -Deutsche Bank 0.85 - 7.80 7.80EIU - - 7.77 7.80Goldman Sachs - - 7.85 7.84Hang Seng Bank - - 7.80 7.80HSBC 0.90 2.10 7.80 7.80ING 1.00 1.90 7.76 7.76JPMorgan - - 7.75 -Morgan Stanley - - 7.80 7.80Nomura 0.70 1.15 7.80 7.82OCBC Wing Hang Bank Ltd. 1.00 - 7.80 -Oxford Economics 0.46 1.02 7.76 7.76Standard Chartered 1.15 - 7.78 -UBS 1.63 3.13 7.80 7.80United Overseas Bank - - 7.75 -SummaryMinimum 0.46 1.00 7.75 7.75Maximum 1.63 3.13 7.85 7.84Median 0.85 1.23 7.80 7.80Consensus 0.92 1.57 7.79 7.79History30 days ago 0.94 1.50 7.79 7.7960 days ago 0.95 1.59 7.79 7.7990 days ago 0.93 1.58 7.79 7.79

Interest Rate Exchange Rate% HKD per USD



April 2015

External Sector | Current Account, Trade and International Reserves



35 | Exports | annual variation in %

32 | Trade Balance | USD billion

36 | Int. Reserves | evol. of fcst


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016ANZ - - - - - - - - - -Bank of China (HK) 2.5 2.6 -77.8 -89.1 504 540 582 629 325 333Bank of East Asia - - -76.0 - 493 - 569 - - -BBVA Research 3.0 3.0 - - - - - - - -BofA Merrill Lynch 3.0 3.2 -65.2 -66.7 490 490 555 557 330 342Capital Economics - - - - - - - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts 2.9 2.4 -68.4 -68.2 493 524 562 592 355 370Credit Agricole 1.1 0.8 - - - - - - - -Credit Suisse 1.4 1.6 -75.7 -81.8 499 528 574 609 339 347Daiwa - - -66.3 -62.3 486 501 552 564 - -DBS Bank - - -78.0 -81.0 488 520 566 601 354 376Deutsche Bank 2.0 1.8 - - - - - - 350 370EIU 2.6 2.2 -64.7 -71.9 506 539 570 610 321 326Goldman Sachs 3.5 4.3 - - - - - - - -Hang Seng Bank - - -25.0 -34.4 495 574 520 609 - -HSBC 1.3 2.6 - - - - - - 337 345ING - - - - - - - - - -JPMorgan 1.4 - - - - - - - 319 -Morgan Stanley 3.0 2.9 - - - - - - - -Nomura 3.5 3.0 -66.3 -71.9 512 560 579 632 - -OCBC Wing Hang Bank Ltd. 1.5 - -73.2 - 516 - 589 - 325 -Oxford Economics 3.4 3.8 - - - - - - 349 371Standard Chartered 2.3 2.8 - - - - - - - -UBS 2.2 2.5 -69.1 -68.5 488 504 557 572 - -United Overseas Bank 2.5 - - - - - - - - -SummaryMinimum 1.1 0.8 -78.0 -89.1 486 490 520 557 319 326Maximum 3.5 4.3 -25.0 -34.4 516 574 589 632 355 376Median 2.5 2.6 -68.8 -70.2 494 526 567 605 337 347Consensus 2.4 2.6 -67.1 -69.6 497 528 565 598 337 353History30 days ago 2.8 3.3 -66.6 -67.0 503 535 570 602 337 35160 days ago 2.5 3.2 -70.8 -67.5 507 537 578 604 335 34490 days ago 2.4 3.1 -72.0 -69.9 508 538 580 608 335 340

Int. ReservesUSD bnUSD bn

ImportsCurrent Account Trade Balance% of GDP USD bn USD bn

Exports

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0


2015 2016

0

4

8

12

16

2000 2005 2010 2015


-20

0

20

40

2000 2005 2010 2015


-300

0

300

600

900

2000 2005 2010 2015


330

340

350

360


2015 2016

0

5

10

15

20

2000 2005 2010 2015




April 2015

Hong Kong in the Region


Fact Sheet

Hong Kong1.7%

China60.6%

India12.3%

Korea8.0%

Indonesia5.0%

Other12.4%

Hong Kong0.2%

China41.1%

India37.8%

Indonesia7.6%

Philippines3.0%

Other10.3%

Japan8.0% U.S.A.

5.3%EU-277.8%

Other Asia ex-Japan

13.1%

China47.0%

Singapore6.3%

Other12.5%

U.S.A.9.9%

EU-279.7%

Other Asia ex-Japan

11.9%

China54.1%

Other14.5%

Other10.4%


Other7.8%


Ores & Metals12.1%

Food8.5%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

0

20

40

60

80

1002005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• Model free trade policy setting• Low tax environment• Highly skilled labor force

.

• Monetary policy constrained byexchange rate system• Dependence on Beijing increases political uncentainty• Major international financial hub• Highly exposed to property sector

Energy (2012)Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 1,213Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 36.5Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 40.8Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 354CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 88.6

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: Aa1 PositiveS&P: AAA StableFitch Ratings: AA+ Stable

Telecommunication (2013) Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 63.0Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 239Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 74.2Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 30.8

Transportation (2013) Airports: 2Roadways (km): 2,090Chief Ports: Hong Kong

Official name: Hong Kong SpecialAdministrative Region

Capital: Hong KongOther cities: Hong Kong Island (1.3 m)

Kowloon (2.0 m)New Territories (3.7 m)

Area (km2): 1,104Population (million, 2014 est.): 7.3Population density (per km2, 2014): 6,578Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 0.41Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 82.8Illiteracy rate (%, 2002): 6.5Language: Cantonese, EnglishMeasures: Metric system and

Chinese standard weightsTime: GMT+8

Chief Executive: Leung Chun-yingLast elections: 25 March 2012Next elections: 2017Monetary Authority Chief Executive: Norman Chan

FOCUSECONOMICS India


April 2015

India

POLITICS | Modi delivers pragmatic, albeit lacklustre budget for FY 2015/16Nine months after Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) achieved an overwhelming election victory as a result of a campaign centered on deregulating business and fostering foreign direct investment, the government presented its first full-year budget on 28 February. While the USD 290 billion budget for FY 2015/16 fell short of sky-high expectations for large reforms, it included a number of positive policy announcements focused on boosting economic growth and creating a more business friendly-environment. Overall, the budget signaled the government’s commitment to achieving high economic growth rates, while pushing the pace of fiscal consolidation back slightly.

One of the budget’s main, and largely-expected, highlights was the planned increase in spending on infrastructure and defense. The government increased spending targets to 2.5% of GDP, up from last year’s 1.9% of GDP. The quality of country’s infrastructure is poor and greater expenditure on roads and railways is badly needed to jumpstart the economy. In this regard, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley stated that five ultra-mega power projects will be constructed to ease India’s chronic energy shortages. Notably, Jaitley

GDP slowed slightly in the quarter from October–December, growing 7.5% year-on-year. More recent data paint a cloudy picture of the economy. Industrial production eased in January and the manufacturing PMI fell in February indicating slowing economic momentum. However, on the flip side, the services PMI rose and the trade deficit shrank in February. Meanwhile, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley presented the budget for fiscal year 2015/2016 on 28 February. While it contains a number of potentially beneficial policies, including increased spending on infrastructure and significant tax reforms, it fell short of introducing any groundbreaking changes.

While India’s economic outlook remains fairly stable, recent revisions to the national accounts methodology and the revised historical data are lifting the forecast. FocusEconomics panelists raised their projections by 0.6 percentage points this month. The panel now expects GDP to increase 7.1% in FY 2015/2016. For FY 2016/2017, the panel sees the economy expanding 7.6%.

Inflation rose from 5.1% in January to 5.4% in February, according to the recently-revised CPI series. In an unscheduled meeting on 4 March, the Central Bank decided to reduce the repurchase rate by 25 basis points from 7.75% to 7.50%. The Central Bank also announced that it had signed an agreement with the government outlining a clear inflation-targeting framework for monetary policy. Panelists expect inflation to average 5.6% in FY 2015/2016. In FY 2016/2017, the panel expects inflation to average 5.7%.

Outlook improves


Angela BouzanisEconomist

2011-13 2014-16 2017-19Population (million): 1,227 1,276 1,327GDP (USD bn): 1,875 2,360 3,451GDP per capita (USD): 1,528 1,848 2,597GDP growth (%): 6.2 7.3 7.6Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -4.8 -4.0 -3.3Inflation (%): 9.4 6.0 5.5Current Account (% of GDP): -3.5 -1.4 -1.9External Debt (% of GDP): 21.5 20.8 15.8

India



April 2015

announced that only part of the increased infrastructure expenditure would be financed directly from the budget; the rest will come from public sector undertakings and other internal sources. To fill part of this funding gap, the government announced that it would launch tax-free infrastructure bonds, as well as establish a National Investment and Infrastructure Fund. Successful implementation and financing will be key going forward.

Another positive aspect of the budget are the policies aimed at improving the ease of doing business and monetizing taxes. Jaitley emphasized the government’s commitment to implementing the upcoming Goods and Services Tax (GST) in April 2016 as well as creating more transparent and simplified tax laws moving forward. The government pledged to gradually reduce the corporate tax rate from 30% to 25% over the next four years and to remove some of the current exemptions. In addition, a modern bankruptcy law was tabled and a law against black money was outlined which, if successful, could reduce tax evasion. The government also outlined a number of proposals to encourage savings, such as tax incentives for payments toward pensions and insurance premiums.

Yet, despite all the increased dynamism and reforms Modi’s government pledged, Jaitley failed to deliver in a few areas. In particular, he failed to outline a comprehensive roadmap on how to reform India’s subsidy schemes, which account for 1.6% of GDP. The subject is politically unpopular, which may explain its absence from the budget. In addition, the government pushed back its target of lowering the deficit to 3.0% of GDP from FY 2016/2017 to FY 2017/2018. For FY 2015/2016, the government is targeting a fiscal deficit of 3.9%, up from the previous 3.6% target expected in the FY 2014/2015 budget. Radhika Rao, Economist at DBS adds:

Overall, the improved expenditure mix and realistic revenue assumptions bode well for the FY 15/16 fiscal position. What is lacking is a clearer timeline to lower subsidies, optimistic privatization and indirect tax targets. Any disappointment on the growth front and / or a rebound in fuel prices could add to the stress on the fiscal books.

Against this backdrop, FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists’ foresee a fiscal deficit of 4.0% for FY 2015/2016. For 2016/2017, the panel expects a deficit of 3.7%.

The Central Bank sees the economy growing 6.5% in FY 2015/2016. Although India’s outlook remains fairly stable, a recent revision to national accounts methodology and revised historical data is lifting the forecast. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to grow 7.1% in FY 2015/2016, which is up 0.6 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For FY 2016/2017, the panel sees economic growth at 7.6%.

REAL SECTOR | Manufacturing PMI eases while services improvesThe HSBC manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 51.2 in February from 52.9 in January. February’s result marked the second consecutive monthly drop and a five-month low. The PMI is now closer to the 50-threshold that separates expansion from contraction in business activity in the manufacturing sector.

According to HSBC, the drop was driven by a deterioration in all five components of the index. Weaker growth was recorded for output and new orders. In addition, employment levels fell in February and backlogs of work rose. HSBC pointed out that, “[m]anufacting growth in India lost momentum


Note: HSBC India Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). A reading above 50 indicates an expansion in business activity while a value below 50 points to a contraction.Source: HSBC and Markit.

40

45

50

55


PMI ManufacturingPMI ServicesThreshold

INR Million % of GDP1 1,141,575 -

2 Tax Revenue (net to centre) 919,842 -3 Non-Tax Revenue 221,733 -

4 635,902 -5 Recoveries of Loans 10,753 -6 Other Receipts 69,500 -

7 Borrowings and other liabilities 555,649 -8 1,777,477 -9 1,312,200 -

10 On Revenue Account of which, 1,206,027 -11 Interest Payments 456,145 -12 On Capital Account 106,173 -

13 465,277 -14 On Revenue Account 330,020 -15 On Capital Account 135,257 -

16 1,777,477 -17 Revenue Expenditure 1,536,047 -

18 Of Which, Grants for creation of Capital Assets 110,551

-19 Capital Expenditure 241,430 -

20 394,472 -2.821 283,921 -2.022 555,649 -3.923 99,504 -0.7

Plan Expenditure

Union Budget Fiscal Year 2015/16

Revenue Receipts

Capital Receipts

Total ReceiptsNon-Plan Expenditure

Total Expenditure

Revenue DeficitEffective Revenue DeficitFiscal DeficitPrimary Deficit

Notes: Union Budget for fiscal year 2015/16.Source: Ministry of Finance.



April 2015

in February, with output and new orders expanding at softer rates than those seen in the past four months.”

Meanwhile, the services PMI rose to 53.9 in February from January’s 52.4. The figure marked an eight-month high and indicates that business activity in services continues to expand. According to HSBC, the increase in February stemmed from strong new business growth during the month.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see fixed investment rising 5.8% in FY 2015/16, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2016/2017, the panel expects fixed investment to increase 7.8%.

REAL SECTOR | Industrial production eases in JanuaryIn January, industrial production expanded 2.6% compared to the same month last year. The reading was below December’s revised 3.2% growth (previously reported: +1.7% year-on-year), but overshot the 0.7% expansion the market had expected.

The slowdown in January was broad-based. Manufacturing production rose 3.3% over the same month last year, which was below December’s 3.8% rise. Mining contracted 2.8% in January, which followed December’s 2.1% fall. In addition, production of electricity slowed.

On a use-based classification, the figure was driven by a deterioration in the production of consumer goods, basic goods and intermediate goods. In contrast, the production of capital goods accelerated in January.

Despite the slowdown, the trend improved. Annual average growth in industrial production rose from 1.7% in December to 1.9% in January.

FocusEconomics panelists expect industrial production to increase 5.7% in fiscal year 2015/2016, which is up 0.8 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For fiscal year 2016/2017, the panel expects industrial output to expand 7.0%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Wholesale prices tumble in February, while inflation risesConsumer prices in February increased 0.81% over the previous month, which contrasted January’s zero growth. The monthly result mainly reflected higher prices for alcoholic beverages and tobacco as well as for housing and fuel. Inflation rose from January’s 5.1% to 5.4% in February, which was above the 5.2% that markets had expected.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect consumer price inflation to average 5.6% in FY 2015/2016, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For FY 2016/2017, the panel expects consumer price inflation to average 5.7%.

The wholesale price index (WPI) in February decreased 1.40% over the previous month, which was notably below the revised 0.22% fall observed in January (previously reported: -0.83% month-on-month). February’s fall came on the back of a large decrease in fuel prices which stem from the recent sharp fall in global oil prices. Decreases were also recorded for the prices of foods articles and manufactured prices.

Inflation | Wholesale and Consumer Price Index

Note: Annual and monthly variation of consumer price index (CPI) and annual variation of wholesale price index (WPI) in %.Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry and FocusEconomics calculations.

-4

0

4

8

12

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0


CPI - Month-on-month (left scale)CPI - Year-on-year (right scale)WPI - Year-on-year (right scale)

%%


Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation of industrial production index in %.Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI) and FocusEconomics calculations.

-5

0

5

10


Year-on-year

Annual average

%



April 2015

Wholesale prices in February fell 2.1% over the same month last year, which followed January’s 0.4% decrease and marked the steepest decrease on record. February’s print was below the 0.8% fall the markets had expected. As a result of the subdued reading, annual average WPI inflation fell from 3.3% in January to 2.7% in February.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect wholesale price inflation to average 1.8% in FY 2015/2016, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In FY 2016/2017, the panel expects wholesale price inflation to average 4.5%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Reserve Bank cuts interest rates unexpectedlyIn an unscheduled meeting on 4 March, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) decided to reduce the repurchase rate by 25 basis points, from 7.75% to 7.50%. The move was unexpected by market analysts and came after the Bank’s decision to hold the repurchase rate at its 3 February meeting. In order to maintain the corridor at which monetary policy rates move, the Bank also decided to cut the marginal standing facility rate (Bank rate) from 8.75% to 8.50% and the reverse repurchase rate from 6.75% to 6.50%.

Commenting on the decision, the Central Bank recognized that recent economic data have confirmed disinflationary pressures. Further, the new consumer price index has showed that inflationary pressures are evolving as anticipated by the Reserve Bank last year, although at a faster pace than predicted. The monetary authorities explained that uncertainties surrounding the inflation outlook remain as oil prices have risen in recent weeks and food prices will be influenced by the south-west monsoon. In addition, the government’s actions on food management will be significant in determining the inflation forecast.

Regarding the recent revision to GDP statistics, the Central Bank pointed out that the new information presents a picture of a robust economy. However, the recently-released estimate is at odds with other economic indicators and anecdotal evidence on the state of the economy. Despite the contradiction, the Bank believes the overall portrait of a steadily recovering economy is accurate.

In addition, the Central Bank commented on the recently released Union Budget. The monetary authorities stated that many of the structural reforms contained in the Budget will improve supply over the medium term. In the near term, the Central Bank estimates that aggregate demand will be boosted by the one-year postponement of fiscal consolidation to a 3% target. Concern remains regarding the large borrowings planned for the public sector. Moreover, the government has pledged to compensate for the postponement by improving the quality of fiscal adjustment going forward. In addition, the government and the Central Bank signed a memorandum outlining clear inflation objectives and stating that fiscal and monetary policy will work together in a complementary method.

In conclusion, the Central Bank summarized that low inflation figures combined with some still-weak data in economic indicators justify its monetary policy action. The Bank added that the need for an unscheduled decision was prompted by the weak state of certain sectors of the economy and the release of the agreement on monetary policy framework. Looking forward, the Central Bank stated its target of lowering the inflation rate to 4% by the end of a two-year period beginning in FY 2016/2017. In addition, the RBI explained that,

MSF, Repo and Reverse Repo Rates | in %

Note: Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) Rate, Repo Rate and Reverse Repo Rate in %.Source: Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15

MSF Rate Repo Rate Reverse Repo Rate

%



April 2015

“further monetary actions will be conditioned by incoming data, especially on the easing of supply constraints, improved availability of key inputs such as power, land, minerals and infrastructure, continuing progress on high-quality fiscal consolidation, the pass through of past rate cuts into lending rates, the monsoon outturn and developments in the international environment.”

FocusEconomics panelists project that the repurchase rate will average 7.10% at the end of FY 2015/2016. For FY 2016/2017, panelists see the repurchase rate ending the year at 7.00%.

EXTERNAL SECTOR | Trade deficit shrinks in FebruaryMore recent data related to India’s external sector showed that the trade deficit totaled USD 6.8 billion in February, which was below the USD 8.3 billion shortfall observed in the same month last year. February’s result represents the lowest deficit in 17 months. In the 12 months up to February, the trade deficit recorded USD 135.6 billion, which narrowed slightly from the USD 137.1 billion shortfall recorded in the 12 months up to January.

The narrowing in the trade deficit showed that imports contracted 15.7% annually in February, which followed the 11.4% fall registered in January. The reading, which marked a 12-month low, was largely the result of the sharp decline in oil prices. Accordingly, oil imports totaled USD 6.10 billion, which represented a 55.5% decrease compared to the same month of the previous year.

Meanwhile, exports contracted 15.0% year-on-year in February (January: -11.2% year-on-year).

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect exports to increase 4.9% in FY 2015/2016, reaching USD 341 billion. In FY 2016/2017, the panel sees exports expanding 8.7% and reaching USD 371 billion.

Merchandise Trade

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-sum of exports and imports in %.Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry and FocusEconomics calculations.

-40

-20

0

20

40

-220

-190

-160

-130

-100

Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15

Trade Balance (USD bn, left scale)Exports (yoy, right scale)Imports (yoy, right scale)

%



April 2015

Economic Indicators | FY 2010/11 - 2019/20

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20Real Sector Population (million) 1,195 1,211 1,227 1,243 1,260 1,276 1,293 1,310 1,327 1,345GDP per capita (USD) 1,427 1,563 1,509 1,511 1,679 1,826 2,038 2,291 2,582 2,918GDP (USD bn) 1,705 1,893 1,852 1,878 2,115 2,330 2,635 3,001 3,427 3,924GDP (INR bn) 77,841 88,320 99,885 113,451 124,905 136,023 152,450 170,664 190,970 213,595Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) 20.2 13.5 13.1 13.6 10.1 8.9 12.1 11.9 11.9 11.8Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 8.9 6.7 5.1 6.9 7.4 7.1 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.7Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 8.7 9.2 5.5 6.2 6.5 6.8 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.9Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) 11.1 12.6 -0.3 3.0 3.6 5.8 7.8 8.0 8.4 8.7Agriculture (annual variation in %) 8.3 5.0 1.2 3.7 1.3 2.6 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.3Industry (annual variation in %) 7.6 7.9 2.5 4.5 - - - - - -Services (annual variation in %) 9.7 6.6 8.1 9.1 - - - - - -Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 8.2 3.0 1.1 -0.1 3.7 5.7 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.7Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -5.7 -4.9 -4.8 -4.6 -4.2 -4.0 -3.7 -3.5 -3.3 -3.1Public Debt (% of GDP) 67.5 66.8 66.6 61.5 66.7 65.6 64.0 62.5 61.4 60.3Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M2 in %) 16.1 6.0 7.5 10.9 - - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 10.6 8.5 10.2 9.5 6.8 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.5Inflation (WPI, annual variation in %, aop) 9.6 9.0 7.4 6.0 2.7 1.8 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2RBI Repurchase Rate (%, eop) 6.75 8.50 7.50 8.00 7.50 7.10 7.00 6.75 6.59 6.4491-Day Treasury Bill (%, eop) 7.31 9.02 8.19 8.94 - - - - - -10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 7.99 8.59 7.96 8.81 7.90 7.47 7.09 7.08 7.05 7.02Stock Market (var. of BSE SENSEX in %) 10.9 -10.5 8.2 9.0 - - - - - -Exchange Rate (INR per USD, eop) 44.5 50.9 54.3 60.0 62.1 62.8 62.5 62.1 61.4 60.7Exchange Rate (INR per USD, aop) 45.5 47.9 54.4 60.4 61.2 62.6 62.7 62.3 61.8 61.0External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -2.8 -4.2 -4.7 -1.7 -1.4 -1.1 -1.6 -1.8 -1.9 -2.0Current Account Balance (USD bn) -47.8 -78.8 -87.4 -32.8 -30.5 -26.5 -41.1 -52.5 -64.1 -78.0Trade Balance (USD bn) -119 -184 -190 -136 -136 -136 -146 -167 -195 -234Exports (USD bn) 251 306 300 314 325 341 371 415 469 534Imports (USD bn) 370 490 490 450 462 477 517 582 664 768Exports (annual variation in %) 40.5 21.7 -1.8 4.4 3.7 4.9 8.7 11.9 12.9 13.9Imports (annual variation in %) 28.2 32.4 0.1 -8.2 2.7 3.4 8.3 12.6 14.1 15.7International Reserves (USD bn) 305 295 293 296 330 368 404 407 421 436International Reserves (months of imports) 9.9 7.2 7.2 7.9 8.6 9.2 9.4 8.4 7.6 6.8External Debt (USD bn) 318 361 409 441 461 491 516 530 541 552External Debt (% of GDP) 18.6 19.1 22.1 23.5 21.8 21.1 19.6 17.7 15.8 14.1 Quarterly Data Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 7.5 7.4 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.5 7.7 7.8 7.8 7.5Business Confidence Index 138.0 - - - - - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 4.8 5.6 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.8 5.6 5.5 5.5Inflation (WPI, annual variation in %, aop) 0.3 0.9 1.1 1.3 2.0 2.0 3.3 3.8 4.8 6.0RBI Repurchase Rate (%, eop) 8.00 7.50 7.31 7.24 7.16 7.10 7.08 7.06 7.00 7.0010-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 7.86 7.90 7.70 7.67 7.58 7.47 7.38 7.33 7.26 7.09Exchange Rate (INR per USD, eop) 63.0 62.1 62.5 62.7 62.8 62.8 62.8 62.7 62.7 62.5Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -1.6 -0.5 -0.9 -1.1 -1.3 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.6 -1.6Current Account Balance (USD bn) -8.2 -2.6 -4.6 -5.9 -7.6 -8.7 -9.8 -10.3 -10.6 -11.7Trade Balance (USD bn) -39.7 - - - - - - - - -Exports (USD bn) 77.5 - - - - - - - - -Imports (USD bn) 117.1 - - - - - - - - -Exports (annual variation in %) -0.8 - - - - - - - - -Imports (annual variation in %) -0.8 - - - - - - - - - Monthly Data May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 5.6 4.3 1.0 0.5 2.6 -2.7 3.9 3.2 2.6 -HSBC Manufacturing PMI (50-threshold) 51.4 51.5 53.0 52.4 51.0 51.6 53.3 54.5 52.9 51.2HSBC Services PMI (50-threshold) 50.2 54.4 52.2 50.6 51.6 50.0 52.6 51.1 52.4 53.9Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.58 0.93 1.77 0.91 0.00 0.14 0.21 -0.41 0.00 0.81Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 8.3 7.5 8.0 7.7 6.5 5.5 4.4 5.0 5.1 5.4Inflation (WPI, mom variation in %) 0.66 0.55 1.09 0.49 -0.48 -0.70 -1.36 -1.38 -0.22 -1.40Inflation (WPI, annual variation in %) 6.2 5.7 5.4 3.9 2.4 1.7 -0.2 -0.5 -0.4 -2.1Exchange Rate (INR per USD, eop) 59.2 60.1 60.6 60.5 61.9 61.4 62.2 63.0 62.0 61.7Trade Balance (USD bn) -11.2 -11.8 -12.2 -10.8 -14.2 -13.4 -16.9 -9.4 -8.3 -6.8Exports (annual variation in %) 12.4 10.2 7.3 2.4 2.7 -5.0 7.3 -3.8 -11.2 -15.0Imports (annual variation in %) -11.4 8.3 4.3 2.1 26.0 3.6 26.8 -4.8 -11.4 -15.7

Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI) released new national accounts data on 9 February, which introduced a new methodology and shifted the base year of calculation from 2004/05 to 2011/12. Historical series have been revised according to the new methodology and it affects all variables related to GDP. Some forecasts may not yet reflect these changes. On 12 February, MOSPI released new consumer price index data, which introduced a new methodology and rebased from 2010 to 2012. CPI data from January 2015 and forward is taken from this new series.



April 2015

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

< 5.6 6.2 6.8 7.4 8.0 8.6 9.2 9.8 > 9.8


1 | Real GDP | 2000 - 2019 | var. in %

3 | GDP 2015/16 | evol of forecasts


4 | GDP 2016/17 | evol of forecasts

Notes and sources

General: All annual data refer to fiscal year (April-March). Long-term chart period from 2000/01 to 2019/20 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI). IMF forecasts refer to calendar year. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.1 GDP, real annual variation in %. 2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %. Quarters correspond to

calendar year (i.e. Q1=Jan.-Mar.)3 GDP, evolution of 2015/16 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2016/17 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2015/16 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval


Individual Forecasts 2015/16 2016/17Allianz 7.5 7.7ANZ 6.3 7.0BBVA Research 6.0 6.5Berenberg 5.8 6.0BofA Merrill Lynch 6.3 7.0Capital Economics 5.5 6.0CII 7.5 -Citigroup Global Mkts 8.1 8.4Credit Agricole 7.5 7.6Credit Suisse 8.1 8.9Crisil 7.9 8.2DBS Bank 7.8 8.3Deutsche Bank 7.5 7.5EIU 6.6 6.7Frontier Strategy Group 6.5 7.5Goldman Sachs 6.3 6.8HSBC 7.8 8.3India Ratings and Research 6.5 -ING 7.7 8.5JPMorgan 7.2 7.8Kotak Securities 7.4 7.8Morgan Stanley 6.3 6.8NCAER 6.5 -Nomura 7.8 8.3Oxford Economics 7.5 7.5Société Générale 7.4 7.7Standard Chartered 7.7 8.0UBS 7.5 8.3United Overseas Bank 7.4 7.7SummaryMinimum 5.5 6.0Maximum 8.1 8.9Median 7.4 7.7Consensus 7.1 7.6History30 days ago 6.5 7.060 days ago 6.2 6.790 days ago 6.2 6.7Additional ForecastsIMF (Mar. 2015) 7.5 -ADB (Dec. 2014) 6.3 -Central Bank (Feb. 2015) 6.5 -

-5

0

5

10

15

2000 2005 2010 2015

IndiaAsia (ex Japan)World

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8

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Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

IndiaAsia (ex Japan)World

4

6

8

10



4

6

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10



5 | GDP 2015/16 | Panelist Distribution



April 2015



5

6

7

8


2015/16 2016/17


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5

10

15

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

IndiaAsia (ex Japan)


5

6

7

8


2015/16 2016/17


2

4

6

8

10

12

2000 2005 2010 2015


Individual Forecasts 2015/16 2016/17 2015/16 2016/17Allianz - - - -ANZ - - - -BBVA Research 6.4 7.3 4.7 5.7Berenberg - - - -BofA Merrill Lynch 5.7 6.2 3.3 5.0Capital Economics 4.0 - 6.0 -CII 6.9 - 4.2 -Citigroup Global Mkts 7.8 8.3 - -Credit Agricole - - - -Credit Suisse 8.2 9.0 4.5 9.0Crisil 7.8 8.0 6.2 8.0DBS Bank - - - -Deutsche Bank 7.9 7.2 6.1 9.3EIU 6.6 7.2 6.0 7.2Frontier Strategy Group 7.5 7.8 - -Goldman Sachs - - - -HSBC 7.6 8.3 7.7 9.1India Ratings and Research 5.9 - 7.1 -ING - - - -JPMorgan 5.5 - - -Kotak Securities - - - -Morgan Stanley - - - -NCAER - - - -Nomura 7.4 8.6 7.5 10.0Oxford Economics 7.1 7.0 5.5 7.4Société Générale 6.7 6.7 6.1 7.7Standard Chartered - - - -UBS - - - -United Overseas Bank - - - -SummaryMinimum 4.0 6.2 3.3 5.0Maximum 8.2 9.0 7.7 10.0Median 7.0 7.5 6.0 7.8Consensus 6.8 7.6 5.8 7.8History30 days ago 6.5 7.1 6.1 7.660 days ago 6.3 6.8 6.5 7.090 days ago 5.9 6.7 6.5 7.1

Consumption variation in %

Investment variation in %

Notes and sources

All annual data refer to fiscal year (April-March). Long-term chart period from 2000/01 to 2019/20 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.6 Private consumption, annual variation in %. 7 Private consumption, evolution of 2015/16 and 2016/17 forecasts during the last 18 months.8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.9 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2015/16 and 2016/17 forecasts during the last 18 months.




April 2015


13 | Fiscal Balance | evol. of forecasts

-4.5

-4.3

-4.1

-3.9

-3.7

-3.5


2015/16 2016/17


-8

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-4

-2

0

2

2000 2005 2010 2015



4

5

6

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8


2015/16 2016/17


-5

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20

2000 2005 2010 2015


Individual Forecasts 2015/16 2016/17 2015/16 2016/17Allianz - - -4.4 -4.2ANZ - - - -BBVA Research 5.0 6.0 - -Berenberg - - - -BofA Merrill Lynch - - -4.0 -3.0Capital Economics - - - -CII 3.0 - -3.6 -Citigroup Global Mkts 7.2 8.2 - -Credit Agricole - - - -Credit Suisse 6.5 7.5 -4.4 -3.7Crisil - - -3.9 -3.6DBS Bank 6.3 7.0 -3.9 -3.5Deutsche Bank 5.7 5.1 -3.9 -3.8EIU 3.9 6.1 -4.1 -3.9Frontier Strategy Group 5.5 7.5 - -Goldman Sachs - - -4.5 -4.5HSBC 6.7 7.7 -3.9 -3.5India Ratings and Research 6.5 - -3.9 -ING - - - -JPMorgan - - -3.6 -Kotak Securities - - -3.9 -3.5Morgan Stanley - - - -NCAER - - - -Nomura - - -3.9 -3.5Oxford Economics 4.8 7.1 -4.4 -4.0Société Générale - - -4.1 -3.7Standard Chartered - - - -UBS 7.1 8.0 -3.9 -3.5United Overseas Bank - - -4.1 -3.7SummaryMinimum 3.0 5.1 -4.5 -4.5Maximum 7.2 8.2 -3.6 -3.0Median 6.0 7.3 -3.9 -3.7Consensus 5.7 7.0 -4.0 -3.7History30 days ago 4.9 6.3 -4.0 -3.660 days ago 5.2 5.9 -4.0 -3.690 days ago 5.1 6.0 -4.0 -3.6

Industry Fiscal Balance variation in % % of GDP

Notes and sources

All annual data refer to fiscal year (April-March). Long-term chart period from 2000/01 to 2019/20 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI) and the Ministry of Finance. See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.10 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: MOSPI.11 Industrial production, evolution of 2015/16 forecasts during the last 18 months.12 Central government balance as % of GDP. Source: Ministry of Finance.13 Central government balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015/16 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Industry and Fiscal Balance



April 2015


17 | WPI | 2000 - 2019 | in %

0

2

4

6

8

10

2000 2005 2010 2015


16 | CPI Inflation 2016/17 | evol of fcst

4

5

6

7

8



15 | CPI Inflation 2015/16 | evol of fcst

4

6

8

10



14 | CPI | 2000 - 2019 | in %

0

5

10

15

2000 2005 2010 2015


Individual Forecasts 2015/16 2016/17 2015/16 2016/17Allianz 5.0 4.7 - -ANZ 5.6 6.4 - -BBVA Research 6.0 5.9 - -Berenberg 7.3 7.5 - -BofA Merrill Lynch 5.8 6.0 3.0 5.0Capital Economics 5.5 5.5 - -CII 5.6 - 1.5 -Citigroup Global Mkts 5.0 5.0 - -Credit Agricole 6.5 6.2 - -Credit Suisse 5.4 5.8 - -Crisil 5.8 5.0 - -DBS Bank 5.6 5.8 - -Deutsche Bank 5.0 5.7 - -EIU 5.8 6.1 2.7 5.2Frontier Strategy Group 6.5 6.0 - -Goldman Sachs 5.3 6.1 - -HSBC 5.4 5.8 2.8 4.5India Ratings and Research 6.0 - 2.8 -ING 5.3 5.0 - -JPMorgan 5.4 - 1.1 -Kotak Securities 5.0 - -0.2 -Morgan Stanley 5.0 5.0 - -NCAER - - 1.9 -Nomura 5.3 5.5 - -Oxford Economics 5.5 5.9 2.2 5.1Société Générale 5.5 5.0 0.3 2.7Standard Chartered 5.4 5.0 - -UBS 5.3 5.0 - -United Overseas Bank 6.5 5.8 - -SummaryMinimum 5.0 4.7 -0.2 2.7Maximum 7.3 7.5 3.0 5.2Median 5.5 5.8 2.0 5.0Consensus 5.6 5.7 1.8 4.5History30 days ago 5.8 5.8 2.0 4.460 days ago 5.9 5.8 3.1 4.090 days ago 6.3 6.1 4.5 4.3

Consumer Pricesvariation in %

Wholesale Pricesvariation in %

Notes and sourcesAll annual data refer to fiscal year (April-March). Long-term chart period from 2000/01 to 2019/20 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.14 Inflation, annual average variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %.15 CPI inflation, evolution of 2015/16 forecasts during the last 18 months. 16 CPI inflation, evolution of 2016/17 forecasts during the last 18 months.17 Inflation, annual average variation of wholesale price index (WPI) in %.

Inflation | annual variation of consumer price index and wholesale price index in %



April 2015

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

< 6.00 6.25 6.50 6.75 7.00 7.25 7.50 7.75 > 7.75


18 | Interest Rate | 2000 - 2019 | in %

20 | Int. Rate 2015/16 | evol of fcst


21 | Int. Rate 2016/17 | evol of fcst

Notes and sources

All annual data refer to fiscal year (April-March). Long-term chart period from 2000/01 to 2019/20 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.18 Interest rate, RBI Repurchasing Rate in % (eop).19 Quarterly interest rate, RBI Repurchasing Rate in % (eop).20 Interest rate, evolution of 2015/16 forecasts during the last 18 months.21 Interest rate, evolution of 2016/17 forecasts during the last 18 months.22 Interest rate, panelist distribution of 2015/16 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast


Individual Forecasts 2015/16 2016/17Allianz - -ANZ 7.00 7.00BBVA Research 7.00 6.50Berenberg - -BofA Merrill Lynch 7.25 6.75Capital Economics 7.00 -CII 6.75 -Citigroup Global Mkts 7.00 7.00Credit Agricole 7.25 -Credit Suisse 7.25 7.25Crisil - -DBS Bank - -Deutsche Bank 7.00 -EIU - -Frontier Strategy Group - -Goldman Sachs 7.50 7.50HSBC 7.25 7.25India Ratings and Research - -ING 7.25 7.25JPMorgan 7.25 -Kotak Securities 7.00 -Morgan Stanley 6.50 -NCAER - -Nomura 7.50 7.50Oxford Economics - -Société Générale 7.00 7.00Standard Chartered 7.00 -UBS 6.75 6.00United Overseas Bank 7.50 -SummaryMinimum 6.50 6.00Maximum 7.50 7.50Median 7.00 7.00Consensus 7.10 7.00History30 days ago 7.08 6.9460 days ago 7.25 6.8890 days ago 7.40 7.13

22 | Interest Rate 2015/16 | Panelist Distribution

Interest Rate | RBI Repurchase Rate

5

6

7

8

9



4

5

6

7

8

9

2000 2005 2010 2015

5

6

7

8

9



6

7

8

9

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16



April 2015

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

< 55.0 57.0 59.0 61.0 63.0 65.0 67.0 69.0 > 69.0


23 | Exchange Rate | INR per USD

25 | INR per USD 2015/16 | evol of fcst

24 | Exchange Rate | INR per USD

26 | INR per USD 2016/17 | evol of fcst

Notes and sources

All annual data refer to fiscal year (April-March). Long-term chart period from 2000/01 to 2019/20 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from Thomson Reuters. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.23 Exchange rate, INR per USD (eop).24 Quarterly exchange rate, INR per USD (eop).25 Exchange rate, evolution of 2015/16 forecast during the last 18 months.26 Exchange rate, evolution of 2016/17 forecast during the last 18 months.27 Exchange rate, panelist distribution of 2015/16 forecasts. Concentration of panelists

in forecast interval in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

Individual Forecasts 2015/16 2016/17Allianz 61.0 59.0ANZ 64.3 -BBVA Research 61.5 61.5Berenberg - -BofA Merrill Lynch 63.0 62.0Capital Economics 57.0 -CII - -Citigroup Global Mkts 64.1 64.7Credit Agricole 65.5 -Credit Suisse 63.5 61.0Crisil 62.0 -DBS Bank 66.7 -Deutsche Bank 64.0 -EIU 61.3 57.7Frontier Strategy Group - -Goldman Sachs 63.0 64.5HSBC 64.0 65.0India Ratings and Research 63.0 -ING 63.5 63.5JPMorgan 65.0 -Kotak Securities 64.0 64.0Morgan Stanley 62.2 62.0NCAER - -Nomura 59.7 60.9Oxford Economics 64.3 66.3Société Générale 59.0 60.5Standard Chartered 61.5 -UBS 63.0 65.0United Overseas Bank 65.0 -SummaryMinimum 57.0 57.7Maximum 66.7 66.3Median 63.0 62.0Consensus 62.8 62.5History30 days ago 62.4 62.360 days ago 62.4 62.290 days ago 61.7 61.6

27 | INR per USD 2015/16 | Panelist Distribution

Exchange Rate | INR per USD

50

60

70

80



35

45

55

65

2000 2005 2010 2015

50

60

70

80



50

55

60

65

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16



April 2015


-250

-200

-150

-100


2015/16 2016/17


-400

0

400

800

2000 2005 2010 2015



-5

0

5

10

2000 2005 2010 2015



-4

-3

-2

-1


2015/16 2016/17



Individual Forecasts 2015/16 2016/17 2015/16 2016/17Allianz -1.4 -1.5 -101 -111ANZ -0.9 -2.2 - -BBVA Research -1.1 -1.9 -143 -166Berenberg - - - -BofA Merrill Lynch -0.7 -0.7 -136 -143Capital Economics -2.0 - - -CII - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts -0.2 -0.8 -117 -136Credit Agricole -3.0 -3.0 - -Credit Suisse -1.7 -2.1 - -Crisil -1.1 - -144 -DBS Bank -1.4 -1.5 -150 -160Deutsche Bank -1.2 -1.6 -149 -174EIU -1.3 -1.8 - -Frontier Strategy Group - - - -Goldman Sachs -0.8 -1.7 - -HSBC -0.6 -1.5 -164 -190India Ratings and Research -2.2 - -182 -ING - - - -JPMorgan -0.5 - -134 -Kotak Securities -0.3 - -132 -Morgan Stanley -2.1 -2.5 - -NCAER -0.9 - - -Nomura -1.0 -1.7 - -Oxford Economics -0.9 -1.4 -126 -131Société Générale -1.2 -1.6 - -Standard Chartered -1.1 -1.5 - -UBS 0.5 0.4 -91 -100United Overseas Bank -1.3 -1.1 - -SummaryMinimum -3.0 -3.0 -182 -190Maximum 0.5 0.4 -91 -100Median -1.1 -1.6 -136 -143Consensus -1.1 -1.6 -136 -146History30 days ago -1.2 -1.6 -143 -14760 days ago -1.5 -1.8 -148 -15890 days ago -1.7 -1.9 -148 -160


Notes and sources

All annual data refer to fiscal year (April-March). Long-term chart period from 2000/01 to 2019/20 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the Ministry of Commerce and Industry. See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.28 Current account balance, as % of GDP. Source: RBI.29 Current account balance, evolution of 2015/16 and 2016/17 forecasts during the last 18 months.30 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD. Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry. 31 Trade balance, evolution of 2015/16 and 2016/17 forecasts during the last 18 months.



April 2015


Exports and Imports

Individual Forecasts 2015/16 2016/17 2015/16 2016/17Allianz 350 375 451 486ANZ - - - -BBVA Research 353 390 495 556Berenberg - - - -BofA Merrill Lynch 355 411 490 554Capital Economics - - - -CII - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts 343 365 460 502Credit Agricole - - - -Credit Suisse - - - -Crisil 343 - 487 -DBS Bank 330 340 480 500Deutsche Bank 339 361 488 536EIU - - - -Frontier Strategy Group - - - -Goldman Sachs - - - -HSBC 341 376 505 566India Ratings and Research 370 - 552 -ING - - - -JPMorgan 329 - 463 -Kotak Securities 322 - 454 -Morgan Stanley - - - -NCAER - - - -Nomura - - - -Oxford Economics 344 381 470 512Société Générale - - - -Standard Chartered - - - -UBS 319 338 410 439United Overseas Bank - - - -SummaryMinimum 319 338 410 439Maximum 370 411 552 566Median 343 375 480 512Consensus 341 371 477 517History30 days ago 347 381 491 52860 days ago 354 384 502 54290 days ago 359 392 508 552


Notes and sources

All annual data refer to fiscal year (April-March). Long-term chart period from 2000/01 to 2019/20 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.32 Exports, annual variation in %. 33 Exports, evolution of 2015/16 and 2016/17 forecasts during the last 18 months.34 Imports, annual variation in %. 35 Imports, evolution of 2015/16 and 2016/17 forecasts during the last 18 months.

400

500

600

700


2015/16 2016/17


-20

0

20

40

60

2000 2005 2010 2015



-20

0

20

40

60

2000 2005 2010 2015



340

380

420

460


2015/16 2016/17




April 2015


450

500

550

600


2015/16 2016/17


10

15

20

25

2000 2005 2010 2015

India

Asia (ex Japan)


5

10

15

20

2000 2005 2010 2015



300

350

400

450


2015/16 2016/17



Individual Forecasts 2015/16 2016/17 2015/16 2016/17Allianz 330 345 515 550ANZ - - - -BBVA Research - - - -Berenberg - - - -BofA Merrill Lynch 425 496 460 488Capital Economics - - - -CII - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts 401 464 471 486Credit Agricole - - - -Credit Suisse 365 390 489 519Crisil - - - -DBS Bank 360 380 - -Deutsche Bank 379 408 526 589EIU 320 357 - -Frontier Strategy Group - - - -Goldman Sachs - - - -HSBC 376 408 475 500India Ratings and Research - - - -ING - - - -JPMorgan - - 533 -Kotak Securities - - - -Morgan Stanley - - - -NCAER - - - -Nomura - - - -Oxford Economics 354 389 460 479Société Générale - - - -Standard Chartered - - - -UBS - - 487 517United Overseas Bank - - - -SummaryMinimum 320 345 460 479Maximum 425 496 533 589Median 365 390 487 509Consensus 368 404 491 516History30 days ago 364 413 494 51960 days ago 359 383 494 51290 days ago 362 375 491 543


Notes and sources

All annual data refer to fiscal year (April-March). Long-term chart period from 2000/01 to 2019/20 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.36 International reserves, months of imports. 37 International reserves, evolution of 2015/16 and 2016/17 forecasts during the last 18 months.38 External debt as % of GDP. 39 External debt, evolution of 2015/16 and 2016/17 forecasts during the last 18 months.



April 2015

India in the Region


Fact Sheet

India12.4%

China60.6%

Korea7.9%

Indonesia5.0%

Taiwan3.1%

Other11.0%

India37.8%

China41.1%

Indonesia7.6%

Philippines3.0%

Vietnam2.7% Other

7.8%

Switzerland6.2% U.S.A.

5.1%

EU-2711.1%

Other Asia ex-Japan

15.8%

China10.7%

LatAm5.6%

Other45.4%

U.S.A.12.2%

EU-2716.7%

Other Asia ex-Japan

17.7%China5.0%

Other48.3%

Other8.5%


Ores & Metals6.0%

Mineral Fuels41.4%

Other7.7%


Mineral Fuels19.1%

Food10.2%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1202005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Agriculture

Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• Huge domestic market • Excessive bureaucracy• Protectionist trade policy• Weak infrastructure

• High catch-up growth potential..

• Skilled labor force in key industries, particularly software

Energy (2012)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 15,874Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 23,916Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 1,052Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 865Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 3,450CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 1,831

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: Baa3 StableS&P: BBB- StableFitch Ratings: BBB- Stable


Transportation (2013) Airports: 352Railways (km): 63,974Roadways (km): 4,689,842Waterways (km): 14,500Chief Ports: Mumbai, Chennai, Kolkata

Official name: Republic of IndiaCapital: New Delhi (22.7 m)Other cities: Greater Mumbai (19.7 m)

Kolkata (14.4 m)Bangalore (8.6m)

Area (km2): 3,287,263Population (million, 2014 est.): 1,260Population density (per km2, 2014 est.): 383.2Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 1.3Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 67.8Illiteracy rate (%, 2006): 37.2Language: Hindi, English and

21 other official languagesMeasures: Metric systemCalendar: Year begins on 21 or

22 March of Gregorian calendarTime: GMT+5.30

Prime Minister: Narendra ModiLast elections: 7 April - 12 May 2014Next elections: 2019Central Bank Governor: Raghuram Rajan

FOCUSECONOMICS Indonesia


April 2015

Indonesia

REAL SECTOR | Manufacturing PMI falls to record low in FebruaryThe manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) ticked down from 48.5 in January to 47.5 in February, according to a release provided by HSBC. February’s result marked the lowest level on record. Moreover, the index is below the 50-threshold, which indicates contraction in the manufacturing sector.

February’s figure reflected a fifth straight contraction in both output and new orders, with both falling at the fastest rate in nearly four years. Weak demand domestically, due to high prices and from abroad, were a drag on production and orders. Latest data show that input costs rose during the latest period, with a strong U.S. dollar pushing up the price of imported inputs. Manufacturers cut their purchasing activity the most in 18 months. Moreover, the decrease in production and demand led to a seventh consecutive fall in employment levels.

According to HSBC, “as new orders fell at a survey-record pace, reflective in part of rising prices negatively weighting on demand, the near-term outlook for the sector remains a little underwhelming. Accordingly, manufacturers responded by cutting their staffing levels further during February.”

Expectations are high that government-led infrastructure spending will boost the economy this year following disappointing GDP growth in 2014. However, there are also doubts regarding whether the savings generated by fuel subsidy cuts will be enough to fund the near-doubling of capital expenditures as laid out in the 2015 budget, particularly in light of the expected drop in oil-related revenues. Moreover, it remains to be seen at what rate government funds will be disbursed and how many of the projects in the pipeline will materialize. The success of the government’s expansionary fiscal plans may well determine the fate of the economy this year, given that other sectors are stuck in low gear. No strong recovery of export growth is expected in the near term, with subdued global demand offsetting the effect of a depreciating currency. Exports of commodities such as coal and palm oil, but also manufactured goods, are stuck in a rut. In fact, the manufacturing PMI hit a record low in February.

President Widodo’s growth-oriented policies are expected to boost the economy. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy expanding 5.4% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel sees GDP growth picking up to 5.7%.

Inflation receded from 7.0% in January to 6.3% in February. The rupiah traded at a multi-year low of 13,242 per USD on 16 March. The Central Bank decided to hold the BI rate at 7.50% at its 18 March monetary policy meeting. FocusEconomics panelists expect inflation to average 6.1% in 2015 and to drop to an average of 4.8% in 2016.

Outlook stable


Carl Kelly Economist

2011-13 2014-16 2017-19Population (million): 243 255 266GDP (USD bn): 909 935 1,290GDP per capita (USD): 3,716 3,662 4,840GDP growth (%): 5.9 5.4 5.9Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -1.7 -2.1 -1.5Public Debt (% of GDP): 21.6 25.0 25.0Inflation (%): 5.2 5.8 4.6Current Account (% of GDP): -1.9 -2.7 -1.9External Debt (% of GDP): 27.2 33.6 27.9

Indonesia


Note: HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). A reading above 50 indicates an expansion in the manufacturing sector while readings below 50 indicate a contraction.Source: HSBC and Markit.

46

48

50

52

54




April 2015

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see manufacturing rising 5.1% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month’s estimate. For 2016, the panel expects manufacturing to increase 5.6%.

The Central Bank expects the economy to grow between 5.4% and 5.8% in 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to expand 5.4% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel sees economic growth picking up to 5.7%.

REAL SECTOR | Retail sales accelerate in JanuaryRetail sales in January expanded 10.4% over the same month of last year, according to Bank Indonesia’s Retail Sales Survey (RSS). The expansion was well above the 3.3% rise observed in December. According to the Bank, January’s expansion was driven by strong growth of sales of information and communication equipment as well as of food, beverages and tobacco.

Annual average growth in retail sales decreased from 14.4% in December to 13.4% in January. According to the survey, retailers expect sales to pick up in February to an 11.4% annual growth rate.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants see private consumption rising 5.1% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2016, panelists see growth in private consumption coming in at 5.4%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation recedes further in February amid low global oil pricesConsumer prices decreased 0.36% in February over the previous month, which followed the 0.24% drop tallied in January. February’s reading, the lowest since June 2007, was driven by a steep decline in prices for foodstuffs as well as transportation and communication services. Low global oil prices continue to offset the increase in prices caused by the government’s decision in November of last year to lower fuel subsidies.

Annual inflation receded from 7.0% in January to 6.3% in February. The reading was below market expectations of 6.7%. Annual average inflation inched down from 6.3% in January to 6.2% in February. Meanwhile, the core inflation index, which excludes volatile items such as food and administered prices, increased 0.34% over the previous month (January: +0.61% month-on-month). Annual core inflation held steady at January’s 5.0%.

The Central Bank’s inflation target for 2015 is 3.0%–5.0%. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect that inflation will average 6.1% in 2015, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, panelists see inflation averaging 4.8%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Bank Indonesia holds rates to calm capital outflows and currency volatilityAt its 18 March monetary policy meeting, the Central Bank decided to hold the BI policy rate at 7.50%. The move, which met market expectations, follows the surprise 25 basis point cut implemented at the previous meeting in February in an attempt to stoke economic growth. While boosting the economy remains a priority, the decision to hold the rate at this time comes primarily amid concern over capital outflows, exchange rate volatility, and a persistent current account deficit. The Bank also maintained the deposit facility rate at 5.50% and lending facility rate at 8.00%.

Retail Sales | variation in %

Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation in %.Source: Bank Indonesia (BI) and FocusEconomics calculations.

0

10

20

30


Year-on-year

Annual average

%


Note: Annual and monthly variation of consumer price index in %.Source: Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and FocusEconomics calculations.

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0


Month-on-month (left scale)


%%



April 2015

Bank Indonesia emphasized that it expects the economy to gather momentum during the course of this year. The Bank explained that increases in private consumption and government spending will drive an improvement already in Q1. Meanwhile, the external sector continues to suffer amid weak global demand and low commodity prices. Growth this year will accelerate on the back of increased investment and government infrastructure projects.

The Bank pointed out that consumer prices dropped 0.36% in February over the previous month. Moreover, annual inflation receded from 7.0% in January to 6.3% in February. Core inflationary pressures also subsided. Declining inflationary pressures are being driven by moderate domestic demand and weak global commodity prices. The Bank maintains its inflation target corridor of 4.0±1.0% for 2015 and 2016.

Regarding the external sector, the trade balance recorded a third straight surplus in February, due primarily to a non-oil and gas surplus. A surplus in the oil and gas sector in February also helped reduce some pressure on the country’s stubbornly large current account deficit. The Bank stated that its rate hold this month was aimed at guiding the current account deficit, “to a more healthy level in the range of 2.5-3% of GDP in the medium term.” The Bank suggested that foreign direct investment will grow as the domestic outlook improves.

In terms of currency developments, the rupiah continued to depreciate against the U.S. dollar in February. Solid economic growth in the U.S. and the launch of the ECB’s quantitative easing program have driven the dollar to appreciate further. The Bank explained that it will continue to intervene in the foreign exchange market to stabilize the currency. The Bank considers that a weaker rupiah will benefit the current account deficit through lower imports of consumer goods and greater export competitiveness, but aims to avoid a rapid depreciation.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the BI rate to average 7.22% at the end of 2015. For 2016, panelists expect the BI rate to end the year at 6.92%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Indonesian rupiah drops to multi-year lowThe Indonesian rupiah (IDR) traded at 13,242 per USD on 16 March, which was 16.6% weaker than the level registered on the same day of last year. The rupiah had not traded at such a low value against the U.S. dollar since 1998. The rupiah has lost more than 6.0% so far this year and will likely hold above the 13,000-per-USD barrier in the near term.

The currency’s downward trend has been driven by a combination of factors, including high demand for dollars and capital outflows in anticipation of an interest rate hike in the U.S. later this year. Moreover, the Central Bank has signaled that it is comfortable with a weaker currency on the grounds that a devalued rupiah will reduce the current account deficit through lower imports of consumer goods and greater export competitiveness. The Bank has intervened in the foreign exchange market to avoid a steep drop-off but is expected to allow the rupiah to depreciate slowly going forward.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the rupiah to trade at 12,994 per USD by the end of this year. In 2016, the panel projects that the rupiah will trade at 12,968 per USD.

Monetary Policy Rate | in %

Note: BI rate in %.Source: Bank Indonesia (BI).

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0


%

Exchange Rate | IDR per USD

Note: Daily spot of Indonesian rupiah (IDR) against U.S. dollar (USD).Source: Thomson Reuters.

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000




April 2015

EXTERNAL SECTOR | Exports decline again in February, but trade surplus holds amid slumping imports Exports contracted 16.0% in February over the same month of last year, which followed the 7.7% decline observed in January. February’s result marked the largest contraction since August 2012 and the fifth consecutive loss. Non-oil and gas exports, which account for the majority of Indonesian shipments, dropped 12.7% in February (January: -5.8% year-on-year). Similarly, oil and gas exports contracted 30.6% (January: -17.0% yoy). Meanwhile, imports fell 16.2% in January, which followed the 15.4% contraction in December.

The trade balance narrowed marginally from a USD 744 million surplus in January to a USD 738 million surplus in February. This result was somewhat smaller than the USD 843 million surplus recorded in the same month of 2014. However, the reading overshot the USD 635 million surplus the market had expected. Meanwhile, the 12-month moving sum of the trade balance widened slightly from a USD 0.7 billion deficit in January to a USD 0.8 billion deficit in February.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect exports to contract 0.5% and the trade balance to reach a USD 7.0 billion surplus in 2015. For 2016, the panel expects exports to grow 6.8% and the trade surplus to reach USD 8.4 billion.

Merchandise Trade

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.Source: Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and FocusEconomics calculations.

-30

0

30

60

-20

0

20

40


%




April 2015


Annual Data 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Real Sector Population (million) 238 241 244 248 251 255 259 262 266 270GDP per capita (USD) 3,181 3,708 3,764 3,676 3,533 3,582 3,873 4,313 4,845 5,361GDP (USD bn) 756 894 920 912 888 914 1,002 1,132 1,290 1,447GDP (IDR tn) 6,864 7,832 8,616 9,525 10,543 11,752 12,987 14,354 15,879 17,530Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) 22.5 14.1 10.0 10.6 10.7 11.5 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.4Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 6.1 6.2 6.0 5.6 5.0 5.4 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.0Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 4.6 5.1 5.5 5.4 5.1 5.1 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.6Government Consumption (annual var. in %) 0.3 5.5 4.5 6.9 2.0 - - - - -Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) 8.5 8.9 9.1 5.3 4.1 5.7 6.8 7.1 7.2 7.3Manufacturing (annual variation in %) 4.5 6.3 5.6 4.5 4.6 5.1 5.6 5.9 5.9 6.0Unemployment (% of active population, eop) 7.0 7.5 6.1 6.2 5.9 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.4Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -0.7 -1.1 -1.8 -2.2 -2.3 -2.0 -1.9 -1.7 -1.5 -1.4Public Debt (% of GDP) 23.1 21.3 21.4 22.1 24.4 25.5 25.2 25.2 25.1 24.8Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M2 in %) 15.4 16.4 15.0 12.8 11.9 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) 7.0 3.8 3.7 8.1 8.4 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 5.1 5.3 4.0 6.4 6.4 6.1 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.4Inflation (Core, annual variation in %, aop) 4.0 4.6 4.3 4.2 4.5 - - - - -Inflation (WPI, annual variation in %, aop) 4.8 7.5 5.1 6.0 9.3 - - - - -BI Rate (%, eop) 6.50 6.00 5.75 7.50 7.75 7.22 6.92 7.08 7.12 7.203-Month JIBOR (%, eop) 6.64 5.27 5.02 7.84 7.17 6.70 5.68 5.58 5.49 5.3910-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 7.83 6.02 5.17 8.44 7.85 7.57 6.75 6.91 6.97 7.06Stock Market (variation of IDX in %) 46.1 3.2 12.9 -1.0 22.3 - - - - -Exchange Rate (IDR per USD, eop) 9,010 9,068 9,638 12,170 12,385 12,994 12,968 12,396 12,231 11,995Exchange Rate (IDR per USD, aop) 9,081 8,763 9,362 10,449 11,866 12,864 12,963 12,682 12,314 12,113External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 0.7 0.2 -2.7 -3.2 -3.0 -2.6 -2.4 -2.1 -1.9 -1.6Current Account Balance (USD bn) 5.1 1.7 -24.4 -29.1 -26.2 -24.2 -24.2 -23.4 -25.0 -23.5Trade Balance (USD bn) 22.1 26.1 -1.7 -4.1 -1.9 7.0 8.4 11.5 16.3 23.6Exports (USD bn) 158 203 190 183 176 175 187 205 226 254Imports (USD bn) 136 177 192 187 178 169 179 193 209 231Exports (annual variation in %) 35.4 29.0 -6.6 -3.9 -3.4 -0.5 6.8 9.3 10.2 12.8Imports (annual variation in %) 40.1 30.8 8.0 -2.6 -4.5 -5.3 6.1 8.0 8.3 10.3International Reserves (USD bn) 96.2 110.1 112.8 99.4 111.9 114.2 120.1 128.3 135.6 138.2International Reserves (months of imports) 8.5 7.4 7.1 6.4 7.5 8.1 8.0 8.0 7.8 7.2External Debt (USD bn) 202 225 252 266 293 313 336 344 357 369External Debt (% of GDP) 26.8 25.2 27.4 29.2 32.9 34.3 33.5 30.4 27.7 25.5 Quarterly Data Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.8 6.0Real Retail Sales (annual variation in %) 15.3 10.4 - - - - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 4.4 6.5 6.4 6.5 6.4 5.1 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.3BI Rate (%, eop) 7.50 7.75 7.49 7.35 7.28 7.22 7.17 7.08 7.08 6.923-Month JIBOR (%, eop) 8.07 7.17 7.25 7.16 7.08 6.70 6.60 6.55 6.30 5.6810-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 8.40 7.85 7.50 7.51 7.50 7.57 7.25 7.18 7.15 6.75Exchange Rate (IDR per USD, eop) 12,185 12,385 12,854 12,915 12,995 12,994 12,980 12,930 12,960 12,968Trade Balance (USD bn) -0.5 -0.2 1.8 -0.5 1.7 2.2 3.2 0.0 1.5 0.9Exports (USD bn) 43.9 43.6 42.5 42.9 42.9 44.1 44.3 46.2 46.3 49.1Imports (USD bn) 44.4 43.8 40.6 43.4 41.2 41.9 41.1 46.2 44.8 48.2Exports (annual variation in %) 2.3 -10.3 -4.2 -3.6 -2.3 1.1 4.4 7.6 8.0 11.4Imports (annual variation in %) -3.3 -5.3 -6.0 -7.1 -7.2 -4.4 1.2 6.4 8.7 15.1 Monthly Data May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15Manufacturing (annual variation in %) 3.8 6.1 1.5 6.0 9.8 5.4 3.8 5.3 5.0 -Real Retail Sales (annual variation in %) 14.8 8.7 19.2 8.8 17.9 17.7 11.5 3.3 10.4 -Consumer Confidence (100-point threshold) 116.9 116.3 119.8 120.2 119.8 120.6 120.1 116.5 120.2 120.2HSBC Manufacturing PMI (50-threshold) 52.4 52.7 52.7 49.5 50.7 49.2 48.0 47.6 48.5 47.5Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.16 0.43 0.93 0.47 0.27 0.47 1.50 2.46 -0.24 -0.36Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 7.3 6.7 4.5 4.0 4.5 4.8 6.2 8.4 7.0 6.3Exchange Rate (IDR per USD, eop) 11,675 11,855 11,578 11,690 12,185 12,085 12,204 12,385 12,668 12,925Trade Balance (USD bn) 0.1 -0.3 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 -0.4 0.2 0.7 0.7Exports (annual variation in %) -8.1 4.4 -6.4 10.7 3.9 -2.2 -14.6 -13.8 -7.7 -16.0Imports (annual variation in %) -11.3 0.4 -19.1 13.7 0.2 -2.2 -7.3 -6.6 -15.4 -16.2

Statistics Indonesia (BPS) released new national accounts data on 23 February, which introduced a new methodology and shifted the base year of calculation from 2000 to 2010. Some forecasts may not yet reflect these changes.



April 2015

0%

20%

40%

60%

< 4.4 4.7 5.0 5.3 5.6 5.9 6.2 6.5 > 6.5


1 | Real GDP | 2000 - 2019 | var. in %




Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from Statistics Indonesia (BPS). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.1 GDP, real annual variation in %. 2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.3 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016ANZ 5.4 5.9Bank Danamon 5.3 5.8BII 5.5 6.0BofA Merrill Lynch 5.8 6.0Capital Economics 5.0 5.0Citigroup Global Mkts 5.2 5.4Credit Agricole 5.6 6.0Credit Suisse 5.1 5.7Daiwa 5.3 5.7Danareksa Securities 5.3 6.1DBS Bank 5.5 5.7Deutsche Bank 5.0 5.5EIU 5.5 6.1Frontier Strategy Group 5.6 6.0Goldman Sachs 5.4 6.0HSBC 5.5 5.8ING 5.5 5.5JPMorgan 5.3 5.0Mandiri Sekuritas 5.3 5.8Maybank Investment Bank 5.5 -Morgan Stanley 5.3 5.5Nomura 5.2 5.3OCBC Bank 5.4 -Oxford Economics 5.5 6.0Société Générale 5.3 5.8Standard Chartered 5.2 5.5UBS 5.0 5.8United Overseas Bank 5.5 -SummaryMinimum 5.0 5.0Maximum 5.8 6.1Median 5.4 5.8Consensus 5.4 5.7History30 days ago 5.4 5.760 days ago 5.4 5.790 days ago 5.4 5.7Additional ForecastsCentral Bank (Jan. 2015) 5.4-5.8 -IMF (Oct. 2014) 5.5 5.8ADB (Dec. 2014) 5.8 -

-5

0

5

10

15

2000 2005 2010 2015

IndonesiaAsia (ex Japan)World

2

4

6

8

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

IndonesiaAsia (ex Japan)World

4

5

6

7



4

5

6

7

8






April 2015



5

6

7

8

9


2015 2016


0

5

10

15

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

IndonesiaAsia (ex Japan)


5.0

5.2

5.4

5.6


2015 2016


0

4

8

12

2000 2005 2010 2015


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016ANZ - - - -Bank Danamon 5.2 5.2 5.7 6.7BII 4.9 5.0 6.2 7.1BofA Merrill Lynch 5.4 5.6 6.1 7.3Capital Economics 5.5 - 6.0 -Citigroup Global Mkts 4.6 4.7 - -Credit Agricole - - - -Credit Suisse 4.7 5.0 5.5 8.0Daiwa - - - -Danareksa Securities 5.4 5.3 4.5 7.3DBS Bank 5.2 5.3 5.0 5.6Deutsche Bank 5.3 5.5 6.6 6.5EIU 5.5 5.5 6.0 7.5Frontier Strategy Group 5.0 5.4 - -Goldman Sachs - - - -HSBC 5.5 5.7 4.9 5.8ING - - - -JPMorgan - - - -Mandiri Sekuritas 5.2 5.4 6.2 8.0Maybank Investment Bank 4.5 - 6.5 -Morgan Stanley 5.5 5.6 5.2 6.5Nomura 5.1 5.5 5.2 5.1OCBC Bank 5.0 - 4.8 -Oxford Economics 5.3 6.0 7.3 8.0Société Générale 5.6 5.9 6.9 8.1Standard Chartered - - - -UBS 4.6 5.2 3.2 4.5United Overseas Bank - - - -SummaryMinimum 4.5 4.7 3.2 4.5Maximum 5.6 6.0 7.3 8.1Median 5.2 5.4 5.9 7.1Consensus 5.1 5.4 5.7 6.8History30 days ago 5.1 5.4 5.7 6.960 days ago 5.0 5.3 5.7 7.190 days ago 5.0 5.4 5.7 7.1

Consumption Investment variation in % variation in %

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from Statistics Indonesia (BPS). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.6 Private consumption, annual variation in %. 7 Private consumption, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.9 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.




April 2015


Unemployment% of active pop.

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016ANZ - - - - - -Bank Danamon 5.8 5.7 -1.8 -1.9 - -BII 5.9 5.7 -1.8 -1.6 - -BofA Merrill Lynch - - -2.3 -2.2 25.0 25.3Capital Economics - - - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts 6.1 6.0 -2.0 -1.8 26.5 26.7Credit Agricole - - - - - -Credit Suisse - - -2.1 -2.3 22.8 22.0Daiwa - - -2.2 -2.2 - -Danareksa Securities - - - - - -DBS Bank - - -2.3 -2.1 - -Deutsche Bank 6.0 5.9 -1.7 -1.7 27.0 28.0EIU 5.8 5.8 -1.7 -1.7 25.3 25.4Frontier Strategy Group 5.7 5.5 - - - -Goldman Sachs - - - - - -HSBC 5.6 5.2 -1.9 -1.7 - -ING - - - - - -JPMorgan - - -1.9 - 25.2 22.0Mandiri Sekuritas - - - - - -Maybank Investment Bank 6.5 - -1.8 - - -Morgan Stanley - - -2.2 -2.2 - -Nomura - - -2.1 -1.7 - -OCBC Bank - - - - - -Oxford Economics 5.8 5.6 -2.2 -1.9 27.3 27.6Société Générale 6.1 6.0 -2.1 -2.0 26.0 25.5Standard Chartered - - - - - -UBS - - -2.3 -2.0 24.9 24.5United Overseas Bank 6.1 - -2.1 - - -SummaryMinimum 5.6 5.2 -2.3 -2.3 22.8 22.0Maximum 6.5 6.0 -1.7 -1.6 27.3 28.0Median 5.9 5.7 -2.1 -1.9 25.3 25.4Consensus 5.9 5.7 -2.0 -1.9 25.5 25.2History30 days ago 5.9 5.6 -2.0 -1.9 25.9 25.760 days ago 5.9 5.7 -2.0 -1.9 25.1 25.190 days ago 5.9 5.6 -2.1 -1.9 25.0 24.9

Fiscal Balance Public Debt% of GDP % of GDP

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and the Ministry of Finance. See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.10 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: BPS.11 Balance of central government as % of GDP. Source: Ministry of Finance.12 Balance of central government as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.13 Public debt as % of GDP. Source: BPS.

Unemployment, Fiscal Balance and Public Debt

13 | Public Debt | % of GDP

20

40

60

80

100

2000 2005 2010 2015

Indonesia

Asia (ex Japan)

12 | Fiscal Balance | evol. of forecasts

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0


2015 2016


-4

-2

0

2

2000 2005 2010 2015

Indonesia

Asia (ex Japan)


2

4

6

8

10

12

2000 2005 2010 2015




April 2015

0%

20%

40%

60%

< 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 > 10.0


14 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | in %


15 | Inflation | Q1 12-Q4 16 | in %


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from Statistics Indonesia (BPS). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.14 Inflation, annual average variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %.15 Inflation, annual variation of quarterly average consumer price index (CPI) in %.16 Inflation, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.17 Inflation, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.18 Inflation, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016ANZ 5.1 4.7Bank Danamon 6.8 4.7BII 7.3 5.6BofA Merrill Lynch 6.5 4.5Capital Economics 6.0 5.0Citigroup Global Mkts 6.5 4.6Credit Agricole - -Credit Suisse 5.7 5.1Daiwa 5.0 5.1Danareksa Securities - -DBS Bank 6.0 5.5Deutsche Bank 5.8 4.9EIU 4.3 3.7Frontier Strategy Group 6.2 4.8Goldman Sachs 6.8 5.6HSBC 6.5 4.6ING 6.0 3.5JPMorgan 5.5 -Mandiri Sekuritas 6.0 5.1Maybank Investment Bank - -Morgan Stanley 6.3 5.0Nomura 6.8 4.7OCBC Bank 6.2 -Oxford Economics 6.5 4.5Société Générale 6.5 4.9Standard Chartered 6.6 4.5UBS 6.0 4.8United Overseas Bank - -SummaryMinimum 4.3 3.5Maximum 7.3 5.6Median 6.2 4.8Consensus 6.1 4.8History30 days ago 6.5 4.860 days ago 6.8 4.890 days ago 6.6 4.9Additional ForecastsCentral Bank Target 3.0-5.0 -IMF (Oct. 2014) 6.7 6.1ADB (Dec. 2014) 6.7 -


Inflation | annual avg. var. of consumer price index in %

4

6

8

10



0

5

10

15

2000 2005 2010 2015


2

4

6

8



2

4

6

8

10

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16




April 2015

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

< 5.50 6.00 6.50 7.00 7.50 8.00 8.50 9.00 > 9.00


19 | Interest Rate | 2000 - 2019 | in %




Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the Central Bank (BI, Bank Indonesia). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.19 Interest rate, BI Rate in % (eop).20 Quarterly interest rate, BI Rate in % (eop). 21 Interest rate, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.22 Interest rate, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.23 Interest rate, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016ANZ 7.00 7.00Bank Danamon 7.25 7.25BII 8.00 8.25BofA Merrill Lynch 7.25 7.25Capital Economics 7.00 6.50Citigroup Global Mkts - -Credit Agricole 7.50 7.50Credit Suisse 7.00 6.50Daiwa 7.75 7.50Danareksa Securities 6.50 6.25DBS Bank 7.50 -Deutsche Bank 6.75 6.75EIU - -Frontier Strategy Group - -Goldman Sachs 7.50 7.25HSBC 7.25 -ING 6.75 5.00JPMorgan 6.75 -Mandiri Sekuritas 7.25 7.00Maybank Investment Bank - -Morgan Stanley 6.75 6.75Nomura 7.00 7.00OCBC Bank 7.50 -Oxford Economics - -Société Générale 7.52 7.33Standard Chartered 7.75 -UBS 7.00 6.50United Overseas Bank 7.50 -SummaryMinimum 6.50 5.00Maximum 8.00 8.25Median 7.25 7.00Consensus 7.22 6.92History30 days ago 7.49 7.1560 days ago 7.75 7.2390 days ago 7.74 7.19


Interest Rate | BI Rate

5

6

7

8

9



5

10

15

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

4

6

8

10



5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16



April 2015

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

< 11000 11,500 12,000 12,500 13,000 13,500 14,000 14,500 > 14500


24 | Exchange Rate | IDR per USD

26 | IDR per USD 2015 | evol. of fcst

25 | Exchange Rate | IDR per USD

27 | IDR per USD 2016 | evol. of fcst

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from Thomson Reuters. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.24 Exchange rate, IDR per USD (eop).25 Quarterly exchange rate, IDR per USD (eop).26 Exchange rate, evolution of 2015 forecast during the last 18 months.27 Exchange rate, evolution of 2016 forecast during the last 18 months.28 Exchange rate, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016ANZ 13,250 14,000Bank Danamon 12,450 11,800BII 12,500 12,200BofA Merrill Lynch 13,800 13,500Capital Economics - -Citigroup Global Mkts 13,182 13,022Credit Agricole 12,675 12,975Credit Suisse 13,600 13,800Daiwa 12,000 12,100Danareksa Securities 11,752 12,246DBS Bank 13,660 -Deutsche Bank 12,750 12,750EIU 12,344 11,944Frontier Strategy Group - -Goldman Sachs 13,000 13,250HSBC 13,800 14,500ING 13,500 13,600JPMorgan 12,600 13,000Mandiri Sekuritas 13,300 13,400Maybank Investment Bank - -Morgan Stanley 13,000 12,500Nomura 12,900 13,100OCBC Bank - -Oxford Economics 12,550 12,150Société Générale 13,600 13,250Standard Chartered 12,500 -UBS 13,250 13,250United Overseas Bank 13,900 -SummaryMinimum 11,752 11,800Maximum 13,900 14,500Median 13,000 13,022Consensus 12,994 12,968History30 days ago 12,636 12,70460 days ago 12,552 12,51690 days ago 12,420 12,505

28 | IDR per USD 2015 | Panelist Distribution

Exchange Rate | IDR per USD

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000



8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

2000 2005 2010 2015

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000



9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16



April 2015


5

10

15

20


2015 2016


-100

0

100

200

300

2000 2005 2010 2015



-4

0

4

8

2000 2005 2010 2015



-2.9

-2.6

-2.3

-2.0

-1.7


2015 2016



Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016ANZ -2.3 -2.1 - -Bank Danamon -2.7 -2.3 10.7 11.5BII -2.5 -1.8 16.7 19.9BofA Merrill Lynch -2.3 -2.5 10.0 8.9Capital Economics - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts -2.5 -2.4 9.5 8.9Credit Agricole -2.5 -2.1 - -Credit Suisse -2.7 -2.9 - -Daiwa -2.0 -2.0 4.0 5.9Danareksa Securities -2.9 -2.8 3.8 2.0DBS Bank -2.9 -2.7 -6.0 -4.0Deutsche Bank -2.5 -2.0 13.8 19.9EIU -2.9 -1.8 9.5 16.9Frontier Strategy Group - - - -Goldman Sachs -3.1 -2.7 - -HSBC -3.0 -2.9 7.4 9.0ING - - - -JPMorgan -3.0 -2.9 - -Mandiri Sekuritas -2.7 -2.9 12.9 9.6Maybank Investment Bank -2.5 - - -Morgan Stanley -2.8 -2.6 - -Nomura -3.0 -3.3 -3.7 -6.5OCBC Bank - - - -Oxford Economics -2.5 -2.1 6.0 9.1Société Générale -2.7 -2.5 - -Standard Chartered -2.8 -2.5 - -UBS -2.2 -1.4 3.1 7.0United Overseas Bank -2.4 - - -SummaryMinimum -3.1 -3.3 -6.0 -6.5Maximum -2.0 -1.4 16.7 19.9Median -2.7 -2.5 8.5 9.0Consensus -2.6 -2.4 7.0 8.4History30 days ago -2.6 -2.3 7.8 11.860 days ago -2.5 -2.1 8.7 14.490 days ago -2.5 -2.1 8.0 15.9


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and from Central Bank (BI, Bank Indonesia). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.29 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: BI.30 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.31 Trade balance, imports and exports, in USD bn. Source: BPS. 32 Trade balance, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.



April 2015


Exports and Imports

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016ANZ - - - -Bank Danamon - - - -BII 188 216 171 196BofA Merrill Lynch 177 181 167 172Capital Economics - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts 168 174 159 166Credit Agricole - - - -Credit Suisse - - - -Daiwa 176 182 172 176Danareksa Securities 180 196 176 194DBS Bank 173 185 179 189Deutsche Bank 180 192 166 172EIU 172 194 163 177Frontier Strategy Group - - - -Goldman Sachs - - - -HSBC 166 179 159 170ING - - - -JPMorgan - - - -Mandiri Sekuritas 163 168 150 158Maybank Investment Bank - - - -Morgan Stanley - - - -Nomura 179 182 183 188OCBC Bank - - - -Oxford Economics 167 184 161 175Société Générale - - - -Standard Chartered - - - -UBS 191 202 188 195United Overseas Bank - - - -SummaryMinimum 163 168 150 158Maximum 191 216 188 196Median 176 184 167 176Consensus 175 187 169 179History30 days ago 182 195 174 18360 days ago 185 201 176 18790 days ago 191 214 183 198


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from Statistics Indonesia (BPS). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.33 Exports, annual variation in %. 34 Exports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.35 Imports, annual variation in %.36 Imports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

160

180

200

220

240

260


2015 2016


-40

0

40

80

2000 2005 2010 2015



-20

0

20

40

2000 2005 2010 2015



160

180

200

220

240

260


2015 2016




April 2015


290

300

310

320

330

340


2015 2016


0

20

40

60

80

100

2000 2005 2010 2015

Indonesia

Asia (ex Japan)


0

5

10

15

20

2000 2005 2010 2015



105

110

115

120

125

130


2015 2016



Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016ANZ - - - -Bank Danamon 105 109 - -BII 118 121 311 322BofA Merrill Lynch 120 130 316 350Capital Economics - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts 125 140 333 367Credit Agricole - - - -Credit Suisse 105 100 281 282Daiwa - - - -Danareksa Securities - - - -DBS Bank 114 116 - -Deutsche Bank 114 118 311 331EIU - - - -Frontier Strategy Group - - - -Goldman Sachs - - - -HSBC 117 130 335 360ING - - - -JPMorgan 109 - - -Mandiri Sekuritas 117 124 311 353Maybank Investment Bank - - - -Morgan Stanley - - - -Nomura - - - -OCBC Bank - - - -Oxford Economics 115 123 311 327Société Générale - - - -Standard Chartered - - - -UBS 112 112 310 330United Overseas Bank - - - -SummaryMinimum 105 100 281 282Maximum 125 140 335 367Median 115 121 311 331Consensus 114 120 313 336History30 days ago 116 124 315 33360 days ago 116 126 312 32990 days ago 113 117 311 323


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary and external sector data are from the Central Bank (BI, Bank Indonesia). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.37 International reserves, months of imports.38 International reserves, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.39 External debt as % of GDP.40 External debt, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.



April 2015

Indonesia in the Region


Fact Sheet

Indonesia5.0%

China60.6%

India12.3%

Korea8.0%

Taiwan3.1%

Other11.0%

Indonesia7.6%

China41.1%

India37.8%

Philippines3.0%

Vietnam2.7%

Other7.8%

Japan19.8%

U.S.A.5.1%

EU-278.1%

Other Asia ex-Japan

19.0%

China14.8%

Malaysia5.2%

Other27.9%

Japan10.2%

U.S.A.10.0%

EU-279.4%

Other Asia ex-Japan

28.4%

China11.7%

Hong Kong5.7%

Malaysia5.4%

Other19.1%

Other7.5%


Mineral Fuels22.0%

Food8.7%


Ores & Metals8.0%

Mineral Fuels32.5%

Agric. Raw Mat.

6.7%

Food16.9%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

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1002005-07 2008-10 2011-13

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Investment


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40

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1002005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• Extensive natural resources• Large domestic market• Diverse manufacturing sector • Weak legal framework

.

• Widespread corruption deters foreign investment

• Lack of quality infrastructure

Energy (2012)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 16,282Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 6,424Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 185Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 167Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 989Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 1,600CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 456

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: Baa3 StableS&P: BB+ StableFitch Ratings: BBB- Stable


Transportation (2013) Airports: 673Railways (km): 5,042Roadways (km): 496,607Waterways (km): 21,579Chief Ports: Jakarta, Banjarmasin

Official name: Republic of IndonesiaCapital: Jakarta (9.1 m)Other cities: Surabaya (2.5 m)

Bandung (2.4 m)Medan (2.1 m)

Area (km2): 1,904,569Population (million, 2014 est.): 251.5Population density (per km2, 2014): 132Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 0.95Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 72.2Illiteracy rate (%, 2011): 7.2Language: Bahasa IndonesiaMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT+7 to GMT+9

President: Joko WidodoLast elections: 9 July 2014Next elections: July 2019Central Bank Governor: Agus Martowardojo

FOCUSECONOMICS Korea


April 2015

Korea

REAL SECTOR | PMI maintains growth momentum in FebruaryThe manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) held at January’s 51.1 in February, according to a release provided by HSBC in collaboration with Markit. January’s result had marked the first gain since August of last year and a return back above the 50-threshold that separates contraction from expansion. February’s reading sustains these gains and suggests continued improvement in the manufacturing sector.

The result in February was driven by growth in the output category, which expanded at the fastest pace since April 2013. The increase in production was underpinned by more favorable economic conditions, as well as a rise in both domestic and foreign new orders. Total new orders were up for a third consecutive month and new orders from abroad also increased. Higher output and stronger demand led manufacturers to increase new employment at the fastest pace in nearly a year.

Overall, Markit emphasized that, “operating conditions continued to improve in the South Korea manufacturing sector in February.”

Recent data provide a glimmer of hope for the Korean economy after it lost momentum throughout 2014. Business confidence remains in pessimistic territory, although it did jump to a ten-month high in March, and consumer confidence inched up in February. The PMI was positive again in February following a rebound from contraction in the previous month, and industrial production picked up pace in January. However, exports have been underperforming for several months, which poses a barrier to significant growth and recovery. Subdued global demand and a relatively weaker Japanese yen are hurting exports, which contracted at the fastest pace in two years in February. In an effort to reduce reliance on exports and boost domestic demand, President Park Geun-hye recently announced plans to cut business regulations to promote investment and growth in the services sector. Meanwhile, high household debt, which stands at more than 85% of GDP, continues to constrain private consumption.

Challenging global conditions will likely keep Korea’s export-driven economy performing below potential this year. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to expand 3.4% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month. Panelists project GDP growth of 3.6% in 2016.

Inflation fell to 0.5% in February, which marked the lowest level since 1999. The slump in global oil prices has compounded the downward effect of weak domestic demand on price pressures. The Bank of Korea surprisingly cut its reference rate to 1.75% at its 12 March meeting in an attempt to boost momentum in the sluggish economy. Panelists see inflation averaging 1.3% in 2015 and expect it to pick up to 2.0% in 2016.

Outlook moderates


Carl KellyEconomist

2011-13 2014-16 2017-19Population (million): 50.0 50.7 51.3GDP (USD bn): 1,247 1,407 1,729GDP per capita (USD): 24,936 27,776 33,683GDP growth (%): 3.0 3.4 3.8Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): 1.2 0.4 0.8Public Debt (% of GDP) 32.6 35.3 35.0Inflation (%): 2.5 1.5 2.4Current Account (% of GDP): 4.0 6.6 4.7External Debt (% of GDP): 33.0 31.2 27.0

Korea


Note: HSBC Korea Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). A reading above 50 indicates an expansion in business activity while a value below 50points to a contraction.Source: HSBC and Markit.

46

48

50

52

54




April 2015

The Central Bank expects GDP to increase 3.4% in 2015 and 3.7% in 2016. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists foresee the economy growing 3.4% this year, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2016, the panel projects that the economy will expand 3.6%.

REAL SECTOR | Industrial production picks up pace in JanuaryIn January, industrial production expanded 1.8% over the same month last year, which followed the 1.1% increase recorded in December. January’s print topped the 1.5% reading that the markets had expected. According to the Korea National Statistics Office, January’s increase mainly reflected an acceleration in manufacturing production. The service industry also grew, although at a slower pace. Construction activity contracted for a third straight month, and public administration swung from growth in December to a steep fall in January.

A month-on-month comparison does not corroborate the improvement suggested by annual data. Industrial production fell a seasonally-adjusted 3.7% in January, which contrasted the 3.4% increase tallied in December. However, given the stronger annual growth rate, annual average growth in industrial output improved from 0.1% in December to 0.6% in January.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect industrial production to expand 1.9% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, panelists expect industrial output to increase 2.7%.

OUTLOOK | Business confidence ticks up to highest point in 10 months in March but remains in pessimistic territoryThe forward-looking business confidence indicator (BSI) for the manufacturing sector published by the Bank of Korea (BoK) jumped from 73 in February to 82 in March. The improvement makes up for losses in previous months and the index now sits at the highest level since May 2014. However, the index still remains below the 100-point threshold that separates pessimistic from optimistic territory.

According to the Bank, the increase in March’s business confidence reflected a significant rise in sentiment among both export and domestically oriented firms. Expectations regarding sales strengthened notably compared to the previous month. Businesses’ expectations in terms of profitability and raw material purchase prices improved as well.

Meanwhile, the BSI’s current business conditions index inched up from 73 points in January to 74 points in February.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect fixed investment to expand 3.5% in 2015, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel expects investment to grow 3.6%.

OUTLOOK | Consumer confidence inches up again in February The Composite Consumer Sentiment Index (CCSI) published by the Bank of Korea (BoK) inched up from 102 points in January to 103 points in February. Even though the volatile index is still above the 100-point threshold that separates optimism from pessimism, it remains below its 12-month average.

According to the BoK, February’s reading mainly reflected consumers’ more positive assessments of both current and prospective domestic economic conditions. Consumers’ sentiment regarding potential employment


Note: Year-on-year and annual average growth rate in %.Source: Korea National Statistics Office (KOSTAT) and FocusEconomics calculations.

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10


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Annual average

%

Business Confidence

Note: Business Survey Index (BSI). An index value above 100 indicates an optimistic outlook while a value below 100 indicates a pessimistic outlook.Source: Bank of Korea (BoK).

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80

100

120

Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15



April 2015

opportunities was also higher in February compared to the previous month. Consumers’ views regarding potential household income and spending increased less.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect private consumption to expand 2.6% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel sees private consumption growth accelerating to 2.6%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Annual headline inflation drops in February to lowest level since 1999In February, consumer prices registered no change over the previous month, which was down from the 0.5% increase tallied in January. February’s print reflected that much lower prices for transport due to the low cost of fuel were offset by higher prices for household items and for food and non-alcoholic beverages.

Annual headline inflation declined from 0.8% in January to 0.5% in February. The reading undershot the 0.7% that markets had expected and marked the lowest reading since 1999. Annual average inflation ticked down from 1.3% in January to 1.2% in February.

Core consumer prices, which exclude fresh food and energy prices, rose 0.1% in February over the previous month, which was down from the 0.9% tallied in January. Regarding annual figures, core inflation inched up from December’s 2.0% to 2.1%.

The Central Bank expects inflation to average 1.9% in 2015 and 2.6% in 2016. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation to average 1.3% in 2015, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2016, the panel expects average inflation to reach 2.0%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Bank of Korea surprisingly cuts base rate to 1.75% in an attempt to boost growthAt its 12 March monetary policy meeting, the Bank of Korea (BoK) decided to cut the base rate by 25 basis points to a record low 1.75%. The decision surprised the markets and followed a period of four consecutive meetings in which the rate was kept unchanged. The Bank had cut its rate twice in 2014 but explained that the most recent move was necessary to boost momentum in the sluggish economy. In doing so, the Bank joins a growing list of central banks around the world to introduce monetary easing measures.

In its accompanying statement, the BoK stated that it expects the global economy to continue growing at a moderate pace. While the US is growing at a solid rate, the Euro area is showing only modest improvements, and China is experiencing a slowdown. Going forward, global growth will be centered around advanced economies, particularly the US, but may be affected by changes in monetary policy among several countries, sluggish emerging market growth, and geopolitical risks.

On the domestic front, the Bank pointed out once again that export growth has decreased, while domestic demand and economic sentiment remain weak. The Bank, “expects that the domestic economy will show a modest trend of recovery going forward, although falling short of the originally forecast growth path. The period of continuation of the negative output gap will as a result be longer than had been anticipated.”


Note: Month-on-month and year-on-year variation of cons. price index in %.Source: KOSTAT-KOSIS and FocusEconomics calculations.

0.0

0.5

1.0

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2.0

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0




%%

Consumer Confidence

Note: Composite Consumer Sentiment Index (CCSI). An index value above 100 indicates an optimistic outlook while a value below 100 indicates a pessimistic outlook.Source: Bank of Korea (BoK).

95

100

105

110



Note: BoK Base Rate in %.Source: Bank of Korea (BoK).

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5


%



April 2015

Regarding price developments, the BoK stated that annual inflation fell from 0.8% in January to 0.5% in February, driven mainly by lower global oil prices. In addition, core inflation, which excludes agricultural and petroleum prices, fell slightly from 2.4% in January to 2.3% in February. In previous statements, the Bank had stated that it expected inflation to rise gradually in the second half of the year, but now sees inflation holding for a longer time at a level lower than originally expected. The Bank also noted that the Korean won has depreciated further against the US dollar.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the base rate to end 2015 at 1.64%. In 2016, panelists see the policy rate ending the year at 1.93%. EXTERNAL SECTOR | Plunging imports offsets declining exports, keeps trade balance in surplus In February, exports totaled USD 41.5 billion, according to the Korea Customs Services. The reading marked a three-year low and represented a 3.3% year-on-year decrease, which exceeded the 0.9% decline recorded in January (previously reported: -0.7% year-on-year).

Meanwhile, imports totaled USD 33.8 billion in February, which was below the USD 39.8 billion recorded in January and marked the lowest reading in five years. February’s reading marked a staggering 19.7% annual decline, the largest loss in more than five years and even greater than the 11.1% contraction tallied in January.

Given that imports fell relatively more than exports, the trade balance improved compared to the same month last year. The trade surplus came in at USD 7.7 billion in February, which was well above the USD 0.9 billion surplus registered in the same month of last year. The February trade surplus was also higher than the USD 5.4 billion surplus registered in January. In the 12 months up to February, the trade surplus reached USD 58.6 billion (January: USD 51.7 billion), which represented the highest reading on record.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect exports to expand 2.6% in 2015 and 4.2% in 2016.

Merchandise Trade

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-sum of exports and imports in %.Source: Korea Customs Services (KCS) and FocusEconomics calculations.

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April 2015


Annual Data 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Real Sector Population (million) 49.4 49.8 50.0 50.2 50.4 50.7 50.9 51.1 51.3 51.5GDP per capita (USD) 22,286 24,281 24,543 25,983 26,945 27,626 28,756 30,812 33,687 36,548GDP (USD bn) 1,101 1,209 1,227 1,305 1,359 1,399 1,463 1,574 1,729 1,884GDP (KRW tn) 1,265 1,333 1,377 1,428 1,494 1,564 1,651 1,752 1,861 1,979Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) 9.9 5.3 3.4 3.7 4.6 4.7 5.6 6.1 6.2 6.4Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 6.5 3.7 2.3 3.0 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.8 3.8 3.9Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 4.4 2.9 1.9 2.0 1.7 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8Government Consumption (ann. var. in %) 3.9 2.2 3.4 2.7 2.8 - - - - -Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) 5.5 0.8 -0.5 4.2 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 4.0Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 17.0 6.1 1.5 0.7 0.1 1.9 2.7 3.5 3.9 4.0Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 3.7 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.8Public Debt (% of GDP) 31.0 31.7 32.3 33.9 35.1 35.4 35.5 35.4 35.0 34.5Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M2 in %) 6.0 5.5 4.8 4.6 8.1 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) 3.0 4.2 1.4 1.1 0.8 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 2.9 4.0 2.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.5Inflation (Core, annual variation in %, aop) 1.8 3.2 1.7 1.7 2.0 - - - - -Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %, aop) 3.8 6.7 0.7 -1.6 -0.5 - - - - -BoK Base Rate (%, eop) 2.50 3.25 2.75 2.50 2.00 1.64 1.93 2.12 2.34 2.373-Month KORIBOR (%, eop) 2.80 3.56 2.87 2.66 2.14 1.88 2.11 2.80 3.00 3.0410-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 4.52 3.79 3.16 3.58 2.60 2.59 2.73 3.29 3.33 3.37Stock Market (variation of KOSPI in %) 21.9 -11.0 9.4 0.7 -4.8 - - - - -Exchange Rate (KRW per USD, eop) 1,135 1,152 1,071 1,055 1,099 1,124 1,130 1,095 1,057 1,044Exchange Rate (KRW per USD, aop) 1,156 1,108 1,127 1,095 1,053 1,118 1,129 1,113 1,076 1,051External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 2.6 1.5 4.1 6.2 6.6 6.9 6.3 5.1 4.7 4.4Current Account Balance (USD bn) 28.9 18.7 50.8 81.1 89.2 97.2 92.0 80.7 81.4 82.2Trade Balance (USD bn) 41.2 30.8 28.3 44.0 47.2 68.4 69.1 77.7 88.0 96.6Exports (USD bn) 466 555 548 560 573 588 613 648 687 731Imports (USD bn) 425 524 520 516 526 519 544 570 599 634Exports (annual variation in %) 28.3 19.0 -1.3 2.1 2.3 2.6 4.2 5.7 6.2 6.4Imports (annual variation in %) 31.6 23.3 -0.9 -0.8 1.9 -1.2 4.7 4.8 5.2 5.9International Reserves (USD bn) 292 306 327 346 364 385 413 413 416 430International Reserves (months of imports) 8.2 7.0 7.6 8.1 8.3 8.9 9.1 8.7 8.3 8.1External Debt (USD bn) 356 400 409 424 425 440 453 459 463 470External Debt (% of GDP) 32.3 33.1 33.3 32.5 31.3 31.4 31.0 29.2 26.8 24.9 Quarterly Data Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 3.2 2.7 2.9 3.4 3.5 3.9 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.4Economic Growth (GDP, s.a. qoq var. in %) 0.9 0.4 - - - - - - - -Nominal Retail Sales (annual var. in %) 1.5 1.8 - - - - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 1.4 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0BoK Base Rate (%, eop) 2.25 2.00 1.75 1.74 1.68 1.64 1.76 1.78 1.87 1.933-Month KORIBOR (%, eop) 2.28 2.14 2.11 1.96 1.90 1.88 1.88 1.90 2.05 2.11Exchange Rate (KRW per USD, eop) 1,055 1,099 1,115 1,120 1,124 1,124 1,128 1,129 1,130 1,130Trade Balance (USD bn) 8.9 18.3 14.5 20.3 14.4 15.3 14.6 19.4 15.4 23.5Exports (USD bn) 142 148 138 149 146 152 142 152 152 160Imports (USD bn) 133 129 123 128 131 131 127 133 136 136Exports (annual variation in %) 3.6 0.9 0.0 2.1 2.8 3.2 3.1 2.4 4.0 4.7Imports (annual variation in %) 5.4 -2.8 -7.1 -2.5 -1.3 1.2 3.4 4.1 4.0 3.9 Monthly Data Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 0.6 4.0 -2.6 2.0 -3.1 -3.5 1.1 1.8 - -Nominal Retail Sales (annual var. in %) 1.2 0.6 2.5 1.4 -0.2 1.0 4.6 -3.1 - -Unemployment (% of active population) 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.4 3.8 4.6 -Consum. Confidence (100-point threshold) 107 105 106 107 105 103 101 102 103 -Business Confidence (100-point threshold) 81 78 75 74 78 74 75 77 73 82HSBC Manufacturing PMI (50-threshold) 48.4 49.3 50.3 48.8 48.7 49.0 49.9 51.1 51.1 -Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) -0.1 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.5 0.0 -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.5 -Exchange Rate (KRW per USD, eop) 1,012 1,028 1,014 1,055 1,069 1,108 1,099 1,094 1,098 -Trade Balance (USD bn) 5.4 2.3 3.3 3.3 7.5 5.3 5.6 5.4 7.7 -Exports (annual variation in %) 2.4 5.5 -0.4 6.3 2.3 -2.7 3.1 -0.9 -3.3 -Imports (annual variation in %) 4.3 5.7 2.9 7.6 -3.3 -4.1 -1.0 -11.1 -19.7 -



April 2015

0%

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20%

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50%

< 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.6 3.9 4.2 4.5 > 4.5


1 | Real GDP | 2000 - 2019 | var. in %




Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Bank of Korea (BoK). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.1 GDP, real annual variation in %. 2 Quarterly GDP (seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.3 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016ANZ 3.1 3.2BofA Merrill Lynch 3.5 3.7Capital Economics 4.0 4.0Citigroup Global Mkts 3.4 3.7Credit Agricole 3.5 3.4Credit Suisse 3.8 4.0Daiwa 3.0 3.0DBS Bank 3.4 3.7Deutsche Bank 3.3 3.7EIU 3.7 3.8Frontier Strategy Group 3.5 3.6Goldman Sachs 3.7 4.1HSBC 3.1 3.1ING 3.5 3.5JPMorgan 3.1 3.6KERI 3.7 -Korea Invest. & Securities 4.1 -LG 3.4 -Morgan Stanley 3.7 3.7Nomura 2.5 3.0Oxford Economics 3.5 3.7Standard Chartered 3.6 3.7UBS 2.9 2.9United Overseas Bank 3.4 3.6SummaryMinimum 2.5 2.9Maximum 4.1 4.1Median 3.5 3.7Consensus 3.4 3.6History30 days ago 3.5 3.660 days ago 3.6 3.690 days ago 3.6 3.7Additional ForecastsCentral Bank (Jan. 2015) 3.4 3.7IMF (Oct. 2014) 4.0 4.0ADB (Dec. 2014) 3.8 -

-4

0

4

8

12

2000 2005 2010 2015

KoreaAsia (ex Japan)World 0

2

4

6

8

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

KoreaAsia (ex Japan)World

2

3

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April 2015



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KoreaAsia (ex Japan)


2.2

2.6

3.0

3.4

3.8


2015 2016


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9

12

2000 2005 2010 2015


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016ANZ - - - -BofA Merrill Lynch 2.2 2.4 1.6 4.6Capital Economics 2.5 - 4.5 -Citigroup Global Mkts 2.4 2.8 - -Credit Agricole - - - -Credit Suisse 3.4 3.5 2.9 3.0Daiwa - - - -DBS Bank 2.6 2.6 3.0 2.9Deutsche Bank 2.3 2.6 3.6 4.1EIU 3.2 3.0 3.8 3.8Frontier Strategy Group 3.1 2.8 - -Goldman Sachs - - - -HSBC 2.2 2.4 2.8 3.6ING - - - -JPMorgan - - - -KERI 2.5 - - -Korea Invest. & Securities 3.1 - 5.8 -LG 2.6 - 3.3 -Morgan Stanley - - - -Nomura 1.9 2.0 - -Oxford Economics 2.8 3.4 6.6 5.2Standard Chartered - - - -UBS 1.8 1.6 0.1 2.0United Overseas Bank - - - -SummaryMinimum 1.8 1.6 0.1 2.0Maximum 3.4 3.5 6.6 5.2Median 2.5 2.6 3.3 3.7Consensus 2.6 2.6 3.5 3.6History30 days ago 2.6 2.8 3.4 3.860 days ago 2.7 2.8 3.7 3.890 days ago 2.8 2.9 3.8 3.8


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Bank of Korea (BoK). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.6 Private consumption, annual variation in %. 7 Private consumption, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.9 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.




April 2015


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016ANZ - - - - - -BofA Merrill Lynch - - 3.2 3.2 0.4 0.6Capital Economics - - 3.0 - 0.0 -Citigroup Global Mkts - - 3.5 3.4 0.3 0.2Credit Agricole - - - - - -Credit Suisse - - 3.1 3.1 - -Daiwa - - - - 0.0 0.5DBS Bank - - 3.4 3.3 - -Deutsche Bank 3.0 3.5 3.4 3.4 -1.0 -1.1EIU 2.0 2.8 3.6 3.6 0.3 0.9Frontier Strategy Group - - 3.4 3.4 - -Goldman Sachs - - - - - -HSBC 0.8 0.7 3.5 3.4 0.5 0.8ING - - - - - -JPMorgan - - - - 0.4 -KERI - - 3.6 - - -Korea Invest. & Securities - - 3.1 - - -LG 2.9 - 3.6 - - -Morgan Stanley - - - - 0.4 0.4Nomura - - 3.3 3.3 0.4 1.0Oxford Economics 2.4 4.3 3.5 3.6 0.2 0.5Standard Chartered - - - - - -UBS 0.2 2.0 3.6 3.6 -0.1 -0.5United Overseas Bank - - 3.3 3.1 - -SummaryMinimum 0.2 0.7 3.0 3.1 -1.0 -1.1Maximum 3.0 4.3 3.6 3.6 0.5 1.0Median 2.2 2.8 3.4 3.4 0.3 0.5Consensus 1.9 2.7 3.4 3.4 0.2 0.3History30 days ago 2.0 2.7 3.3 3.4 0.2 0.360 days ago 2.5 2.9 3.3 3.3 0.3 0.690 days ago 3.1 3.5 3.2 3.2 0.3 0.5

Industry Unemployment Fiscal Balance variation in % % of active pop. % of GDP

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Korea National Statistics Office (KOSTAT) and the Ministry of Finance and Economy. See below for details. Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.10 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: Korea National Statistics Office (KOSTAT).11 Industrial production, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.12 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: Korea National Statistics Office (KOSTAT).13 Fiscal balance as % of GDP. Source: Ministry of Finance and Economy.

Industry, Unemployment and Fiscal Balance


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14 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | in %


15 | Inflation | Q1 12-Q4 16 | in %


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the Korea National Statistics Office (KOSTAT). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.14 Inflation, annual average variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %.15 Inflation, annual variation of quarterly average consumer price index (CPI) in %16 Inflation, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.17 Inflation, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.18 Inflation, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016ANZ 1.4 2.6BofA Merrill Lynch 1.3 2.4Capital Economics 1.0 2.5Citigroup Global Mkts 1.4 2.4Credit Agricole 1.9 2.1Credit Suisse 0.3 1.4Daiwa 1.3 1.5DBS Bank 1.3 2.0Deutsche Bank 0.9 2.1EIU 1.4 2.2Frontier Strategy Group 1.4 1.5Goldman Sachs 1.5 2.4HSBC 1.1 2.4ING 1.0 1.0JPMorgan 1.0 -KERI 1.7 -Korea Invest. & Securities 2.1 -LG 1.4 -Morgan Stanley 1.2 1.9Nomura 0.8 1.8Oxford Economics 1.1 2.0Standard Chartered 2.1 2.5UBS 0.8 1.0United Overseas Bank 1.1 2.3SummaryMinimum 0.3 1.0Maximum 2.1 2.6Median 1.3 2.1Consensus 1.3 2.0History30 days ago 1.5 2.160 days ago 1.6 2.290 days ago 1.9 2.3Additional ForecastsCentral Bank (Jan. 2015) 1.9 2.6IMF (Oct. 2014) 2.4 2.8ADB (Dec. 2014) 2.4 -



0

1

2

3

4



0

2

4

6

8

2000 2005 2010 2015


0

1

2

3

4



0

1

2

3

4

5

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16




April 2015

0%

20%

40%

60%

< 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 > 2.75


19 | Interest Rate | 2000 - 2019 | in %




Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the Bank of Korea (BoK). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.19 Interest rate, BoK Base Rate in % (eop).20 Quarterly interest rate, BoK Base Rate in % (eop).21 Interest rate, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.22 Interest rate, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.23 Interest rate, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016ANZ 1.75 2.00BofA Merrill Lynch 1.50 2.00Capital Economics 1.75 2.50Citigroup Global Mkts 1.75 2.00Credit Agricole 1.75 2.25Credit Suisse 1.75 2.00Daiwa 1.75 2.00DBS Bank 1.50 -Deutsche Bank 1.50 2.25EIU - -Frontier Strategy Group - -Goldman Sachs 1.75 2.25HSBC 1.50 1.50ING 1.50 1.50JPMorgan 1.75 -KERI - -Korea Invest. & Securities - -LG 1.50 -Morgan Stanley 1.75 1.75Nomura 1.50 1.75Oxford Economics - -Standard Chartered 1.75 -UBS 1.50 1.25United Overseas Bank 1.75 -SummaryMinimum 1.50 1.25Maximum 1.75 2.50Median 1.75 2.00Consensus 1.64 1.93History30 days ago 1.82 2.0260 days ago 1.83 2.0090 days ago 1.93 2.03


Interest Rate | BoK Base Rate

1

2

3

4

5



1

2

3

4

5

6

2000 2005 2010 2015

1

2

3

4

5

6



1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16



April 2015

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

< 950 1,000 1,050 1,100 1,150 1,200 1,250 1,300 > 1,300


24 | Exchange Rate | KRW per USD

26 | KRW per USD 2015 | evol. of fcst

25 | Exchange Rate | KRW per USD

27 | KRW per USD 2016 | evol. of fcst

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from Thomson Reuters. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.24 Exchange rate, KRW per USD (eop).25 Quarterly exchange rate, KRW per USD (eop).26 Exchange rate, evolution of 2015 forecast during the last 18 months.27 Exchange rate, evolution of 2016 forecast during the last 18 months.28 Exchange rate, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016ANZ 1,180 1,240BofA Merrill Lynch 1,145 1,130Capital Economics - -Citigroup Global Mkts 1,149 1,141Credit Agricole 1,130 1,110Credit Suisse 1,133 1,133Daiwa 1,150 1,100DBS Bank 1,147 -Deutsche Bank 1,170 1,130EIU 1,080 1,082Frontier Strategy Group - -Goldman Sachs 1,150 1,200HSBC 1,160 1,180ING 1,150 1,160JPMorgan 1,080 1,050KERI 1,071 -Korea Invest. & Securities 1,100 -LG 1,050 -Morgan Stanley - -Nomura 1,160 1,135Oxford Economics 1,035 1,010Standard Chartered 1,110 -UBS 1,075 1,150United Overseas Bank 1,170 -SummaryMinimum 1,035 1,010Maximum 1,180 1,240Median 1,145 1,133Consensus 1,124 1,130History30 days ago 1,121 1,12760 days ago 1,126 1,12190 days ago 1,110 1,115

28 | KRW per USD 2015 | Panelist Distribution

Exchange Rate | KRW per USD

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300



900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

2000 2005 2010 2015

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300



1,000

1,050

1,100

1,150

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16



April 2015


20

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80


2015 2016


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250

500

750

1000

2000 2005 2010 2015



0

2

4

6

8

2000 2005 2010 2015



2

4

6

8


2015 2016



Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016ANZ 4.5 4.5 - -BofA Merrill Lynch 6.8 6.1 - -Capital Economics - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts 7.3 6.7 59.0 54.9Credit Agricole 5.9 5.5 - -Credit Suisse 8.4 7.9 - -Daiwa 6.7 5.9 59.5 58.7DBS Bank 8.1 7.0 76.0 62.0Deutsche Bank 6.8 5.6 - -EIU 5.7 5.6 80.9 -Frontier Strategy Group - - - -Goldman Sachs 7.6 6.7 - -HSBC 7.9 8.3 - -ING - - - -JPMorgan 7.1 - - -KERI - - 50.5 -Korea Invest. & Securities 6.0 - 46.5 -LG 6.3 - 72.3 -Morgan Stanley 7.1 6.7 - -Nomura 8.4 7.2 - -Oxford Economics 8.0 6.1 - -Standard Chartered 4.7 4.0 - -UBS 9.3 7.4 103.0 100.8United Overseas Bank 6.5 5.8 - -SummaryMinimum 4.5 4.0 46.5 54.9Maximum 9.3 8.3 103.0 100.8Median 7.0 6.1 65.9 60.3Consensus 6.9 6.3 68.4 69.1History30 days ago 6.6 6.0 60.2 65.960 days ago 6.4 5.9 60.2 65.990 days ago 5.8 5.2 56.9 71.9


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from the Bank of Korea (BoK). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.29 Current account balance, as % of GDP. 30 Current account balance, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.31 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD. 32 Trade balance, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.



April 2015


Exports and Imports

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016ANZ - - - -BofA Merrill Lynch - - - -Capital Economics - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts 591 624 532 569Credit Agricole - - - -Credit Suisse - - - -Daiwa 594 619 535 560DBS Bank 573 613 497 551Deutsche Bank - - - -EIU 585 - 505 -Frontier Strategy Group - - - -Goldman Sachs - - - -HSBC - - - -ING - - - -JPMorgan - - - -KERI 600 - 550 -Korea Invest. & Securities 609 - 562 -LG 574 - 502 -Morgan Stanley - - - -Nomura - - - -Oxford Economics - - - -Standard Chartered - - - -UBS 576 595 473 494United Overseas Bank - - - -SummaryMinimum 573 595 473 494Maximum 609 624 562 569Median 588 616 518 556Consensus 588 613 519 544History30 days ago 594 625 534 55960 days ago 594 625 534 55990 days ago 615 681 558 609


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from the Bank of Korea (BoK). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.33 Exports, annual variation in %. 34 Exports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.35 Imports, annual variation in %. 36 Imports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

500

550

600

650

700


2015 2016


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-20

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20

40

2000 2005 2010 2015



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20

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550

600

650

700

750


2015 2016




April 2015


430

440

450

460

470


2015 2016


10

20

30

40

2000 2005 2010 2015

Korea

Asia (ex Japan)


5

10

15

20

2000 2005 2010 2015



350

375

400

425


2015 2016



Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016ANZ - - - -BofA Merrill Lynch 376 394 501 549Capital Economics - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts 372 392 440 454Credit Agricole - - - -Credit Suisse 399 437 406 403Daiwa - - - -DBS Bank 388 401 - -Deutsche Bank 373 387 425 428EIU 365 375 389 390Frontier Strategy Group - - - -Goldman Sachs - - - -HSBC 450 545 470 490ING - - - -JPMorgan 381 - 422 -KERI - - - -Korea Invest. & Securities - - - -LG - - - -Morgan Stanley - - - -Nomura - - - -Oxford Economics 362 372 465 456Standard Chartered - - - -UBS - - - -United Overseas Bank - - - -SummaryMinimum 362 372 389 390Maximum 450 545 501 549Median 376 393 433 454Consensus 385 413 440 453History30 days ago 387 411 446 45960 days ago 385 408 448 46590 days ago 387 391 443 458


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from the Bank of Korea (BoK). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 38 International reserves, months of imports. 39 International reserves, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.40 External debt as % of GDP. 41 External debt, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.



April 2015

Korea in the Region


Fact Sheet

Korea8.0%

China60.6%

India12.3%

Indonesia5.0%

Taiwan3.1%

Other11.0%

Korea1.5%

China41.1%

India37.8%

Indonesia7.6%

Philippines3.0%

Other9.0%

Japan12.4%

U.S.A.8.4%

EU-27, 9.7%

Other Asia ex-Japan,

16.4%China15.5%

,

Other37.5%

U.S.A.10.7%

Japan7.1%

EU-27, 9.1%

Other Asia ex-Japan,

18.6%China24.5%

Hong Kong6.0%

LatAm, 6.0%

Other18.1%

Other6.5%

Manufact. Products52.8%Ores &

Metals8.4%

Mineral Fuels32.4%

Other4.4%


Mineral Fuels8.9%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

0

20

40

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80

1002005-07 2007-09 2011-13

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

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20

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1002005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• Highly developed infrastructure

• Quickly ageing population• Highly educated labor force

.

• Highly dependent on energy imports• Globally leading position in

internet penetration• Lingering geopolitical uncertainty regarding North Korea

Energy (2012)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 1,558Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 11,520Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 500Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 482Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 61.0Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 2,322CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 657

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: Aa3 StableS&P: A+ PositiveFitch Ratings: AA- Stable


Transportation (2013) Airports: 111Railways (km): 3,381Roadways (km): 104,983Waterways (km): 1,600Chief Ports: Busan, Incheon, Pohang

Official name: Republic of KoreaCapital: Seoul (9.7 m)Other cities: Busan (3.4 m)

Incheon (2.6 m)Area (km2): 99,720Population (million, 2014): 50.4Population density (per km2, 2014): 506Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 0.2Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 79.8Illiteracy rate (%, 2011): 2.1Language: Korean, EnglishMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT+9

President: Park Geun-hyeLast elections: 19 December 2012Next elections: December 2017Central Bank Governor: Lee Ju-yeol

FOCUSECONOMICS Malaysia


April 2015

Malaysia

REAL SECTOR | Growth in industrial production moderates in JanuaryIndustrial production increased 7.0% in January over the same month of last year. The figure came in below the 7.4% increase tallied in December and was in line with market expectations. January’s increase was driven by improvements in the mining and electricity sectors. Conversely, growth in manufacturing production slowed compared to the previous month.

On a monthly basis, industrial production decreased a seasonally-adjusted 1.6% in January, which contrasted the 1.9% rise registered in the previous month. Despite January’s deterioration, annual average growth in industrial production edged up from 5.1% in December to 5.4% in January, which marked the highest reading since February 2011.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project that industrial production will grow 3.8% in 2015, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s projection. In 2016, the panel expects industrial output to expand 4.4%.

The government sees GDP growing between 4.5% and 5.5% in 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to grow 4.9% in

Outlook moderates


Cecilia SimkievichEconomist

Malaysia

2011-13 2014-16 2017-19Population (million): 29.5 31.0 32.6GDP (USD bn): 304 333 445GDP per capita (USD): 10,385 10,668 13,640GDP growth (%): 5.2 5.3 5.1Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -4.4 -3.3 -2.7Public Debt (% of GDP): 53.2 53.1 50.7Inflation (%): 2.3 3.0 2.8Current Account (% of GDP): 7.1 3.8 3.2External Debt (% of GDP): 53.3 65.4 53.5

The Malaysian economy recorded a solid 6.0% expansion last year, accelerating from the 4.7% increase tallied in the previous year. Recent data suggest that the economy has lost some momentum in the first months of the year. Industrial production moderated in January, whereas exports posted the worst performance in almost two years. Looking forward, low oil prices will continue to weigh on the country’s balance of payments as well as on its fiscal accounts. Moreover, the government recently decided to increase its 2015 fiscal deficit target from 3.0% of GDP to 3.2% of GDP on the expectation of lower oil revenues.

The Malaysian economy is expected to post healthy growth again this year, although it will decelerate from the strong expansion recorded in 2014. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to expand 4.9% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel sees GDP growing 5.1%.

Inflation fell from 1.0% in January to 0.1% in February, which marked an over-five-year low. Inflationary pressures are expected to increase after the Goods and Services Tax (GST) is introduced in April. At its 5 March meeting, the Central Bank decided to maintain the overnight rate unchanged at 3.25%. The decision came amid ongoing currency weakness and the imminent normalization of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation to average 3.0% both in 2015 and 2016.

-6

0

6

12


Year-on-year

Annual average

%


Note: Annual changes of industrial production index and annual average growth rate in %.Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia (DSM).



April 2015

2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2016, the panel foresees the economy growing 5.1%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation drops to over-five-year low in FebruaryConsumer prices declined 0.6% in February over the previous month, which marked a less-pronounced drop than the 1.1% fall tallied in January. As in the previous month, February’s result was mainly driven by a sharp fall in prices for transport. Prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages as well as for non-durable goods also dropped compared to the previous month. Conversely, prices for housing and healthcare were higher than in January.

Annual inflation dropped from 1.0% in January to 0.1% in February, which marked an over-five-year low. The result slightly undershot the 0.2% that the market had expected. As a result of February’s sharp slowdown, annual average inflation edged down from January’s 2.9% to 2.7% in February.

The government projects inflation to range between 2.5% and 3.5% in 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation to average 3.0% in 2015, which is down 0.5 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2016, the panel sees inflation also averaging 3.0%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Central Bank holds rate steady at 3.25%At its 5 March monetary policy meeting, the Central Bank decided to leave the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) unchanged at 3.25%. The decision was in line with market expectations.

Bank Negara Malaysia stated that global economic growth continues to expand at a moderate pace in spite of varying performance across countries. Downside risks to growth will likely emerge from the weakening of major economies such as China and Japan. On the domestic front, Malaysia’s economic growth continues to be supported mainly by domestic demand, while exports moderated in the last quarter of 2014. The Bank pointed out that, “going forward, domestic demand will remain as a key driver of growth. While the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax and the lower earnings in the commodity sector are expected to have some impact on private consumption, household spending will continue to be supported by the steady increase in income and employment.”

Consumer prices declined further in January and the Central Bank recognized that inflation will likely remain low in the first quarter of the year. The Bank stated that inflation is likely to trend higher in the subsequent quarters as, “lower fuel prices will partially offset other domestic cost factors.” However, prices are expected to remain below their historical average throughout the year.

Finally, the Bank remarked that, “the current stance of monetary policy remains accommodative and is assessed to be appropriate given the developments in monetary and financial conditions.” The Bank signaled that it would remain vigilant regarding external and domestic developments to ensure that its monetary policy stance is consistent with any changes in the economy’s growth outlook

Panelists expect the monetary policy rate to end this year at 3.24%. The panel expects the policy rate to end 2016 at 3.32%.

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0


Month-on-month (left scale)Year-on-year (right scale)

%%


Note: Annual and monthly variation of consumer price index in %.Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia (DSM).

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5


%


Note: Overnight Policy Rate in %.Source: Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM).



April 2015

MONETARY SECTOR | Malaysian ringgit continues to weaken in 2015, hits multi-year low in MarchThe Malaysian ringgit (MYR) hit a multi-year low of 3.71 MYR per USD on 16 March, which was 3.5% weaker than on the same day of the previous month and 13.0% weaker on an annual basis. Moreover, the ringgit was the second poorest performing Asian currency in Q1 2015 after the Indonesian rupiah. The MYR has depreciated 6.0% against the USD so far this year, and the expected upcoming hike in the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rates will likely lead the currency to weaken further in the coming months.

The depreciation of the Malaysian ringgit began in the second half of 2014 when global prices for oil started to decline. As a net oil exporter, Malaysia has particularly felt the impact of the fall in energy prices. Exports decelerated markedly throughout 2014 and that led to a significant deterioration in external accounts, which translated into a weaker ringgit. On top of this, the MYR has also been affected by the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, resulting from solid economic growth in the U.S. Against that background, the Malaysian ringgit has been losing value uninterruptedly since August last year: from a peak of 3.16 MYR per USD on 22 August 2014, the currency depreciated 17.0% to a low of 3.71 MYR per USD on 16 March 2015.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the Malaysian ringgit to end 2015 at 3.60 MYR per USD. The panel sees the Malaysian currency closing 2016 at 3.54 MYR per USD.

EXTERNAL SECTOR | Exports continue to deteriorate in JanuaryExports declined 8.2% in annual terms in January, which was down from the 5.0% contraction tallied in December. The result undershot market expectations and marked the lowest reading in almost two years. According to the Department of Statistics, the deterioration in exports was mainly driven by a decline in shipments of refined petroleum products, liquefied natural gas, rubber, and palm oil. Conversely, exports of electronic products increased compared to the same month of last year. Meanwhile, imports tumbled from a 3.6% drop in December to a 12.5% contraction in January, which marked the lowest reading in over five years.

The trade balance fell from a USD 2.6 billion surplus in December to a USD 2.5 billion surplus in January (January 2014: USD 1.9 billion). The 12-month moving sum of the trade balance ticked up from a USD 25.3 billion surplus in December to a USD 25.9 billion surplus in January.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect exports to drop 1.3% in USD terms in 2015. Imports are expected to drop 1.2% in 2015, pushing the trade surplus to USD 24.8 billion. For 2016, the panel expects exports to grow 7.3%. With imports expected to rise 7.0% in 2016, panelists see the trade surplus widening to USD 27.3 billion.

-4

0

4

8

20

25

30

35



%

Merchandise Trade

Note: 12-month trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports.Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia (DSM) and FocusEconomics calculations.

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0


Exchange Rate | USD per MYR

Note: Daily spot of U.S. dollar (USD) against Malaysian ringgit (MYR).Source: Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM).



April 2015


Annual Data 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Real SectorPopulation (million) 28.6 29.1 29.5 29.9 30.5 31.0 31.5 32.0 32.6 33.1GDP per capita (USD) 8,176 9,984 10,555 10,616 10,566 10,337 11,103 12,263 13,721 14,935GDP (USD bn) 247 291 306 314 329 320 350 393 447 495GDP (MYR bn) 797 885 942 987 1,070 1,161 1,255 1,355 1,462 1,573Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) 11.8 11.0 6.4 4.8 8.4 7.9 8.0 8.0 7.9 7.6Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 7.4 5.2 5.6 4.7 6.0 4.9 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.0Private Consumption (ann. var. in %) 6.9 6.9 8.2 7.2 7.1 5.8 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.5Fixed Investment (ann. var. in %) 11.9 6.3 19.2 8.5 4.7 4.8 5.4 5.7 5.9 6.2Industrial Production (annual var. in %) 7.2 1.2 2.8 3.4 5.1 3.8 4.4 4.7 4.7 4.9Unemployment (% of active population, eop) 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -5.4 -4.8 -4.5 -3.9 -3.5 -3.4 -3.0 -2.9 -2.7 -2.6Public Debt (% of GDP) 51.1 51.5 53.3 54.7 53.7 53.0 52.5 51.6 50.8 49.8Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M2 in %) 7.2 14.7 9.7 7.7 7.5 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) 2.0 3.0 1.3 3.2 2.7 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 1.6 3.2 1.7 2.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.7Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %, aop) 5.6 9.0 0.0 -2.0 1.2 - - - - -Overnight Policy Rate (%, eop) 2.75 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.25 3.24 3.32 3.43 3.66 3.913-Month KLIBOR (%, eop) 2.96 3.19 3.16 3.19 3.72 3.69 3.80 4.13 4.38 4.3910-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 4.04 3.70 3.50 4.15 4.14 4.13 4.15 4.45 4.63 4.72Stock Market (var. of FTSE BM KLCI in %) 42.4 20.7 0.1 7.0 10.8 - - - - -Exchange Rate (MYR per USD, eop) 3.08 3.17 3.06 3.28 3.50 3.60 3.54 3.32 3.19 3.14Exchange Rate (MYR per USD, aop) 3.22 3.06 3.09 3.15 3.27 3.61 3.57 3.43 3.25 3.16External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 10.9 11.6 5.8 4.0 4.6 3.1 3.7 3.6 3.0 2.9Current Account Balance (USD bn) 26.9 33.7 17.8 12.6 15.2 10.1 12.9 14.0 13.5 14.2Trade Balance (USD bn) 34.1 40.5 31.1 22.4 25.3 24.8 27.3 29.3 30.8 32.9Exports (USD bn) 199 228 228 229 234 231 248 267 287 310Imports (USD bn) 165 187 197 206 209 206 221 237 256 277Exports (annual variation in %) 26.5 14.4 0.0 0.4 2.5 -1.3 7.3 7.5 7.7 8.0Imports (annual variation in %) 33.3 13.5 5.0 4.9 1.4 -1.2 7.0 7.4 8.0 8.2International Reserves (USD bn) 107 134 140 135 116 113 117 117 125 129International Reserves (months of imports) 7.8 8.6 8.5 7.9 6.7 6.6 6.4 5.9 5.8 5.6External Debt (USD bn) 73.6 81.2 196.9 212.7 213.0 217.9 221.1 223.8 238.4 248.1External Debt (% of GDP) 29.8 27.9 64.3 67.8 64.8 68.1 63.2 57.0 53.3 50.1

Quarterly Data Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 5.6 5.8 5.4 5.1 4.9 4.7 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.2Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 3.0 2.8 2.1 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.9 2.8 2.5 2.5Overnight Policy Rate (%, eop) 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.24 3.24 3.24 3.29 3.30 3.30 3.323-Month KLIBOR (%, eop) 3.68 3.72 3.71 3.71 3.71 3.69 3.78 3.80 3.80 3.8010-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 3.91 4.14 4.13 4.13 4.13 4.13 4.13 4.13 4.14 4.15Exchange Rate (MYR per USD, eop) 3.28 3.50 3.67 3.60 3.60 3.60 3.59 3.56 3.55 3.54Trade Balance (USD bn) 5.3 6.4 6.7 5.8 5.4 2.6 5.0 6.0 6.5 6.0Exports (USD bn) 60.1 58.7 54.3 56.3 57.1 56.1 56.0 62.0 64.0 65.0Imports (USD bn) 54.7 52.3 47.6 50.5 51.7 53.5 51.0 56.0 57.5 59.0Exports (annual variation in %) 5.4 -3.9 -4.5 -5.5 -4.9 -4.5 3.1 10.1 12.1 15.9Imports (annual variation in %) 6.6 0.1 -2.7 -6.2 -5.5 2.4 7.2 10.9 11.2 10.2

Monthly Data May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 5.9 7.0 0.6 6.5 5.4 5.1 4.8 7.4 7.0 -Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 -0.1 -1.1 -0.6Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.3 2.6 2.8 3.0 2.7 1.0 0.1Exchange Rate (MYR per USD, eop) 3.22 3.21 3.20 3.15 3.28 3.29 3.38 3.50 3.63 3.61Trade Balance (USD bn) 1.7 1.3 1.1 1.2 2.9 0.4 3.3 2.6 2.5 -Exports (annual variation in %) 8.4 4.6 1.1 5.7 3.9 -6.1 -2.3 -5.0 -8.2 -Imports (annual variation in %) 4.1 5.5 -0.4 11.7 3.0 5.9 -4.2 -3.6 -12.5 -

The Central Bank (BNM, Bank Negara Malaysia) introduced a new definition for external debt in Q1 2014. Historical data are only available starting in 2012.



April 2015


1 | Real GDP | 2000 - 2019 | var. in %








Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Department of Statistics Malaysia (DSM) and the Central Bank (BNM, Bank Negara Malaysia). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: DSM.2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.

Source: DSM.3 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 Private consumption, annual variation in %. Source: DSM.6 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %. Source: DSM.7 Private consumption, change in 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last


last 18 months.9 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: DSM.10 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: DSM.11 Balance of central government as % of GDP. Source: BNM.12 Industrial production, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the

last 18 months.13 Unemployment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18

months.14 Balance of central government as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and

2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016ANZ 4.5 5.1BofA Merrill Lynch 4.6 5.2Capital Economics 5.0 4.5Citigroup Global Mkts 5.0 5.0Credit Agricole 5.5 5.5Credit Suisse 4.4 5.4Daiwa 5.0 5.5DBS Bank 4.9 5.0Deutsche Bank 4.5 4.5EIU 5.5 5.6Frontier Strategy Group 4.9 4.8Goldman Sachs 5.1 5.1HSBC 4.8 5.5ING 5.0 5.0JPMorgan 4.6 5.0Kenanga Investment Bank 5.1 -Maybank Investment Bank 5.0 -MIER 5.0 5.8Morgan Stanley 5.3 5.4Nomura 4.7 4.3OCBC Bank 4.8 -Oxford Economics 4.8 4.1RHB Research Institute 5.0 5.5Standard Chartered 5.0 5.3UBS 4.4 4.3United Overseas Bank 4.7 5.3SummaryMinimum 4.4 4.1Maximum 5.5 5.8Median 5.0 5.1Consensus 4.9 5.1History30 days ago 5.0 5.060 days ago 5.0 5.190 days ago 5.1 5.1Additional ForecastsGovernment (Jan. 2015) 4.5 - 5.5 -IMF (Oct. 2014) 5.2 5.0ADB (Dec. 2014) 5.3 -

-5

0

5

10

15

2000 2005 2010 2015

MalaysiaAsia (ex Japan)World

0

3

6

9

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

MalaysiaAsia (ex Japan)World

3

4

5

6

7



3

4

5

6

7



5.4

5.6

5.8

6.0


2015 2016

0

5

10

15

2000 2005 2010 2015

MalaysiaAsia (ex Japan)

-10

0

10

20

30

2000 2005 2010 2015


4

5

6

7

8


2015 2016



April 2015


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016ANZ - - - - - - - - - -BofA Merrill Lynch 5.2 5.7 2.9 4.4 - - 2.8 2.8 -3.8 -3.5Capital Economics 5.5 5.0 5.0 5.0 - - 3.0 3.0 -3.2 -3.2Citigroup Global Mkts 5.9 6.3 - - - - 2.9 3.0 -3.2 -2.5Credit Agricole - - - - - - - - - -Credit Suisse 5.5 5.8 1.7 3.6 - - - - -3.2 -3.0Daiwa - - - - - - - - -3.3 -3.0DBS Bank 6.0 6.4 4.4 5.6 - - - - -3.2 -2.8Deutsche Bank 4.2 6.2 5.2 6.2 1.6 2.4 3.1 3.0 -3.4 -2.8EIU 6.8 6.5 5.4 6.0 5.0 5.2 2.8 2.8 -4.7 -3.9Frontier Strategy Group 6.3 6.2 - - 4.1 4.0 3.1 3.1 - -Goldman Sachs - - - - - - - - - -HSBC 6.3 5.2 4.8 6.4 5.5 5.5 3.0 3.3 -3.4 -3.0ING - - - - - - - - - -JPMorgan - - - - - - - - -3.2 -Kenanga Investment Bank 6.2 - - - 3.3 - 3.1 - -3.5 -Maybank Investment Bank 6.3 - 7.2 - - - 3.0 - -3.3 -MIER 6.3 6.4 7.8 8.3 - - 2.8 2.8 - -Morgan Stanley 6.2 6.5 4.5 5.5 - - - - -3.0 -2.5Nomura 5.9 5.6 4.9 3.5 - - 3.0 3.0 -3.0 -2.5OCBC Bank 5.8 - 6.3 - - - - - - -Oxford Economics 4.6 4.4 3.7 4.0 4.0 4.1 3.0 3.0 -3.3 -3.2RHB Research Institute 5.2 5.3 5.9 8.6 4.7 5.7 3.0 3.0 -3.2 -2.5Standard Chartered - - - - - - - - - -UBS 5.6 4.8 2.1 2.5 2.6 4.1 - - -3.6 -4.1United Overseas Bank - - - - - - 2.9 2.7 -3.2 -2.7SummaryMinimum 4.2 4.4 1.7 2.5 1.6 2.4 2.8 2.7 -4.7 -4.1Maximum 6.8 6.5 7.8 8.6 5.5 5.7 3.1 3.3 -3.0 -2.5Median 5.9 5.8 4.9 5.5 4.0 4.1 3.0 3.0 -3.2 -3.0Consensus 5.8 5.8 4.8 5.4 3.8 4.4 3.0 3.0 -3.4 -3.0History30 days ago 5.8 5.6 4.5 5.2 4.0 4.4 2.9 3.0 -3.3 -2.960 days ago 5.9 5.6 5.4 5.9 4.0 4.4 2.9 3.0 -3.1 -2.890 days ago 5.6 5.6 5.8 6.4 4.1 4.3 3.0 3.0 -3.1 -2.8

-



Fiscal Balance % of GDP

Industry variation in %

Unemployment % of active pop.

12 | Industry | evolution of forecasts






3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5


2015 2016

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015


2.9

3.0

3.1

3.2


2015 2016

2

3

4

5

2000 2005 2010 2015


-3.9

-3.6

-3.3

-3.0

-2.7


2015 2016

-9

-6

-3

0

3

2000 2005 2010 2015




April 2015



Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the Department of Statistics Malaysia (DSM) and the Central Bank (BNM, Bank Negara Malaysia). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 15 Inflation, annual average variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %.

Source: DSM.16 Inflation, annual variation of quarterly average consumer price index

(CPI) in %. Source: DSM.17 Inflation, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.18 Inflation, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.19 Producer price index, annual variation in % (aop). 2000-2014. Source:

DSM.20 Money, annual variation of M2 in %. 2000-2014. Source: BNM.21 Daily MSCI Price index in USD. From Jan. 2010 until end of previous

week. Source: MSCI Barra.22 Daily index levels, FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI. From Jan. 2010 until

end of previous week. Source: FTSE Bursa Malaysia.

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016ANZ 3.4 3.0BofA Merrill Lynch 2.3 3.0Capital Economics 3.5 3.0Citigroup Global Mkts 2.1 3.0Credit Agricole 4.4 3.1Credit Suisse 2.0 3.5Daiwa 4.5 2.7DBS Bank 3.4 3.0Deutsche Bank 1.4 2.5EIU 3.2 2.8Frontier Strategy Group 3.3 3.0Goldman Sachs 3.3 3.1HSBC 2.9 3.1ING 3.5 2.5JPMorgan 2.8 -Kenanga Investment Bank 2.7 -Maybank Investment Bank 4.5 -MIER 3.5 3.0Morgan Stanley 1.7 3.2Nomura 2.5 3.5OCBC Bank 3.3 -Oxford Economics 2.4 3.4RHB Research Institute 3.6 2.3Standard Chartered 4.0 3.0UBS 2.1 3.2United Overseas Bank 2.1 2.6SummaryMinimum 1.4 2.3Maximum 4.5 3.5Median 3.3 3.0Consensus 3.0 3.0History30 days ago 3.5 2.960 days ago 3.8 3.190 days ago 4.0 3.1Additional ForecastsGovernment (Jan. 2015) 2.5 - 3.5 -IMF (Oct. 2014) 4.1 3.5ADB (Dec. 2014) 3.6 -

15 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | in %


19 | Producer Prices | variation in %


16 | Inflation | Q1 12-Q4 16 | in %



22 | Stock Market | FTSE BM KLCI

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

450

500

550

600

650

700

Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan

0

2

4

6



0

2

4

6

8

2000 2005 2010 2015


0

10

20

30

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000


0

2

4

6

8



1

2

3

4

5

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16




April 2015


Policy Interest Rate and Exchange Rate

Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary and external sector data are from the Department of Statistics Malaysia (DSM) and the Central Bank (BNM, Bank Negara Malaysia). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 23 Interest rate, Central Bank Overnight Policy Rate in % (eop). Source:

BNM.24 Quarterly interest rate, Central Bank Overnight Policy Rate in % (eop).

Source: BNM.25 Interest rate, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.26 Interest rate, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.27 Exchange rate, MYR per USD (eop). Source: Thomson Reuters.28 Quarterly exchange rate, MYR per USD (eop). Source: Thomson Reuters.29 Exchange rate, evolution of 2015 forecast during the last 18 months.30 Exchange rate, evolution of 2016 forecast during the last 18 months.31 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: DSM.32 Trade balance, imports and exports, in USD bn. Source: BNM.33 International reserves, months of imports. Source: BNM.34 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016

forecasts during the last 18 months.35 Exports, annual variation in %. Source: DSM.36 International reserves, in USD bn, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016ANZ 3.25 3.50 3.60 3.65BofA Merrill Lynch 3.00 3.00 3.91 3.88Capital Economics 3.25 3.50 3.40 3.30Citigroup Global Mkts 3.25 3.50 3.69 3.61Credit Agricole 4.00 4.00 3.49 3.43Credit Suisse 3.25 3.50 3.67 3.67Daiwa 3.25 3.50 3.55 3.50DBS Bank 3.25 - 3.71 -Deutsche Bank 3.25 3.25 3.80 3.70EIU - - 3.35 3.18Frontier Strategy Group - - - -Goldman Sachs 3.25 3.25 3.70 3.70HSBC 3.00 3.00 3.75 3.80ING 3.25 3.25 3.84 3.88JPMorgan 3.00 - 3.70 -Kenanga Investment Bank 3.25 - 3.57 -Maybank Investment Bank 3.50 - 3.45 -MIER - - 3.57 -Morgan Stanley 2.75 2.75 3.53 3.40Nomura 3.25 3.25 3.50 3.47OCBC Bank - - - -Oxford Economics - - 3.47 3.29RHB Research Institute 3.25 3.50 3.35 3.20Standard Chartered 3.50 - 3.55 -UBS 3.00 3.00 3.50 3.55United Overseas Bank 3.25 - 3.80 -SummaryMinimum 2.75 2.75 3.35 3.18Maximum 4.00 4.00 3.91 3.88Median 3.25 3.25 3.57 3.55Consensus 3.24 3.32 3.60 3.54History30 days ago 3.28 3.38 3.54 3.4960 days ago 3.35 3.41 3.48 3.4090 days ago 3.39 3.43 3.37 3.35

Interest Rate Exchange Rate% MYR per USD

23 | Interest Rate | 2000 - 2019 | in %


27 | Exchange Rate | MYR per USD

29 | MYR per USD 2015 | evol. of fcst



28 | Exchange Rate | MYR per USD

30 | MYR per USD 2016 | evol. of fcst

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0



2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0



2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5



3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

2.9

3.1

3.3

3.5

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4.0

2000 2005 2010 2015

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

2000 2005 2010 2015

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5





April 2015


34 | Current Account | evol. of fcst 35 | Exports | annual variation in % 36 | Int. Reserves | evol. of fcst

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016ANZ 1.8 4.0 - - - - - - - -BofA Merrill Lynch 3.5 5.5 18.0 20.0 232 248 214 228 118 130Capital Economics - - - - - - - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts 3.5 5.5 - - - - - - 118 122Credit Agricole 4.8 4.4 - - - - - - - -Credit Suisse 1.9 3.4 - - - - - - 105 115Daiwa 4.2 4.5 24.9 25.3 246 261 221 235 - -DBS Bank 5.0 5.0 28.0 34.0 218 226 190 192 111 119Deutsche Bank 3.3 1.9 - - - - - - 112 98EIU 3.8 4.0 36.1 38.3 245 262 209 224 126 128Frontier Strategy Group - - - - - - - - - -Goldman Sachs 4.3 4.2 - - - - - - - -HSBC 2.7 3.5 - - - - - - 114 114ING - - - - - - - - - -JPMorgan 1.9 - 28.2 - 229 - 200 - 110 -Kenanga Investment Bank 2.7 - 18.0 - 217 - 199 - - -Maybank Investment Bank 4.7 - 22.4 - 233 - 210 - - -MIER - - 22.5 20.6 239 247 217 226 - -Morgan Stanley - - 39.0 41.0 231 246 192 205 - -Nomura 3.3 2.7 - - - - - - - -OCBC Bank - - - - - - - - - -Oxford Economics 3.5 3.7 - - - - - - 111 121RHB Research Institute 2.3 2.1 19.4 19.3 236 267 216 248 94 103Standard Chartered 2.5 4.5 - - - - - - - -UBS -0.5 0.0 16.5 19.8 218 229 202 209 120 120United Overseas Bank 3.6 - - - - - - - - -SummaryMinimum -0.5 0.0 16.5 19.3 217 226 190 192 94 98Maximum 5.0 5.5 39.0 41.0 246 267 221 248 126 130Median 3.4 4.0 22.5 22.9 232 247 209 225 112 119Consensus 3.1 3.7 24.8 27.3 231 248 206 221 113 117History30 days ago 3.6 4.0 26.8 28.1 235 247 208 219 118 12060 days ago 3.8 4.0 28.5 32.7 234 243 206 211 125 12790 days ago 4.1 4.1 29.3 31.7 240 253 211 221 128 131

-

Current Account Trade Balance % of GDP USD bn

Int. ReservesUSD bnUSD bn USD bn

Exports Imports

3

4

5

6


2015 2016

-40

-20

0

20

40

2000 2005 2010 2015


100

120

140

160

180


2015 2016

31 | Current Account | % of GDP 32 | Trade Balance | USD billion 33 | Int. Reserves | months of imports

0

5

10

15

20

2000 2005 2010 2015


0

100

200

300

400

2000 2005 2010 2015


0

5

10

15

20

2000 2005 2010 2015




April 2015

Malaysia in the Region


Fact Sheet

Malaysia1.9%

China60.6%

India12.3%

Korea8.0%

Indonesia5.0%

Other12.2%

Malaysia0.9%

China41.1%

India37.8%

Indonesia7.6%

Philippines3.0%

Other9.6%

Japan10.3%

U.S.A.8.1%

EU-2710.8%

Other Asia ex-Japan

14.6%

China15.1%

Singapore13.3%

Thailand6.0%

Other21.9%

Japan11.1%

U.S.A.8.6%

EU-278.7%

Other Asia ex-Japan

25.2%

Singapore13.8%

China13.2%

Thailand5.3%

Other14.2%

Other2.9%


Ores & Metals5.3%

Mineral Fuels12.1%

Food8.4%

Other5.5%


Mineral Fuels18.0%

Food12.8%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

0

20

40

60

80

1002005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• Competitive labor costs • Scarcity of qualified labor• Advanced financial sector • Vulnerability to external shocks• Net exporter of oil and gas • Low productivity

.

.

Energy (2012)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 3,815Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 3,111Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 127Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 118.5Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 696Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 656CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 199

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: A3 PositiveS&P: A- StableFitch Ratings: A- Negative


Transportation (2013) Airports: 114Railways (km): 1,849Roadways (km): 144,403Waterways (km): 7,200Chief Ports: Port Klang, Tanjug Pelepas

Official name: MalaysiaCapital: Kuala Lumpur (1.7 m)Other cities: Johor Bahru (1.4 m)

Kajang (0.8 m)Area (km2): 329,847Population (million, 2014 est.): 29.9Population density (per km2, 2014): 90.8Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 1.5Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 74.5Illiteracy rate (%, 2010): 6.9Language: Bahasa Malaysia,

EnglishMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT+8

Prime Minister: Najib Tun RazakLast elections: 5 May 2013Next elections: 2018Central Bank Governor: Zeti Akhtar Aziz

FOCUSECONOMICS Philippines


April 2015

Philippines

EXTERNAL SECTOR | Remittances growth slows to six-year low in JanuaryIn January, cash remittances from Overseas Filipino Workers (OFW) increased 0.5% over the same month of the previous year, reaching USD 1.8 billion. The print came in below December’s 6.6% expansion and marked the slowest pace of growth since January 2009. The overall trend stabilized as remittances totaled USD 24.4 billion in the 12 months up to January, which was virtually in line with December’s print that had marked a record high. The increase represented a 5.5% expansion over the same period of the previous year but fell short of December’s 5.9% rise.

Remittances, which accounted for approximately 8.5% of GDP in 2014, are an important source of income for many Filipino families and thus a key driver of private consumption. According to the Central Bank, land-based workers accounted for the largest share of remittances, while a smaller proportion of remittances came from sea-based workers. Remittances mainly came from the United States, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Outlook improves


Teresa KerstingEconomist

Philippines


• The Philippines recorded a strong expansion in the final quarter of last year, pushing full-year GDP growth to 6.1%. The result suggests that the economy is solidly back on track following Q3’s slowdown. The Q4 acceleration resulted from a rebound in public spending, strong exports and robust private consumption. The government’s focus remains on improving the country’s underdeveloped transport, power and energy infrastructures, which is also crucial to attracting increased foreign direct investment (FDI). Even though implementation of several approved infrastructure projects is behind schedule, companies’ interest in the government’s public-private-partnership is promising. In addition, several policy changes to boost FDI are currently under discussion.

• FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists now assess the Philippines’ economic prospects more positively on expectations that GDP growth will benefit from low oil prices and be sustained by solid private and public spending. Panelists expect the economy to expand 6.4% in 2015, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2016, the panel sees GDP growing 6.3%.

• Inflation inched up from January’s seventeen-month low of 2.4% to 2.5% in February. Inflationary pressures remained subdued in recent months, owing mainly to weak fuel prices and lower food price inflation. Panelists expect inflation to average 2.9% in 2015, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s projection. In 2016, they forecast average inflation of 3.5%.

OFW Remittances | USD billion and variation in %

Note: Monthly OFW remittances in USD billion and annual variation in %.Source: Central Bank of the Philippines (BSP).

0.0

3.0

6.0

9.0

12.0

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4


Monthly OFW remittances in USD bn (left scale)


%



April 2015

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect private consumption to grow 5.8% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2016, the panel expects private consumption to expand 5.7%.

The government expects growth between 7.0% and 8.0% in 2015 and 2016. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect economic growth to reach 6.4% in 2015, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, panelists expect growth of 6.3%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation inches up in February In February, consumer prices rose 0.14% over the previous month, coming in below January’s 0.36% rise. February’s increase reflects that higher prices for housing, electricity, gas and other fuels as well as transport slightly offset lower prices for food items.

Annual inflation inched up from January’s 2.4%, which had marked the lowest level in 17 months, to 2.5% in February. Meanwhile, annual average inflation, which is the reference rate used by the Central Bank as a guide for monetary policy, in February stood at 3.9%, which was a bit down from January’s 4.0% and marked a seven-month low. Thus, average inflation in February rested just slightly below the upper bound of the Central Bank’s target range.

The monthly core inflation index, which excludes volatile items such as food and oil, in February rose 0.4% over the previous month, coming in below January’s 0.6% rise. Finally, annual core inflation rose from January’s 2.2% to 2.5% in February.

The Central Bank’s target inflation rate is 3.0% plus/minus 1.0 percentage points for 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect annual inflation to average 2.9% in 2015, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel expects inflation to average 3.5%.

EXTERNAL SECTOR | Exports contract again in JanuaryIn January, exports shrunk 0.5% over the same month last year, coming in above December’s 3.2% contraction that had represented the first contraction since April 2013.

January’s drop resulted from falling exports of manufactures, which fell 1.6% in annual terms, coming in above December’s 3.2% decrease that had marked the largest drop in 17 months. Exports of electronic products—classified as a sub-category of manufactures—grew from December’s 9.9% increase to a 14.6% annual expansion in January. According to the Philippine Statistics Authority, electronic products account for the largest share of the total exports revenue. Exports of agro-based products rebounded from December’s sizable 24.9% contraction to a 12.9% expansion in January.

In December (the latest month for which data are available), imports fell 10.6% in annual terms, coming in marginally up from November’s 10.8% decrease. Meanwhile, the trade balance improved and tallied a USD 68 million deficit in December (December 2013: USD 485 million deficit).

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see exports rising 1.8% in 2015 and then accelerating to a 8.3% expansion in 2016. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the trade deficit to reach USD 5.6 billion in 2015 and USD 5.5 billion in 2016.


Note: Annual and monthly variation of consumer price index in %.Source: National Statistics Office (NSO).

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0




%%

Merchandise Exports | in %

Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation in %.Source: National Statistics Office (NSO) and FocusEconomics calculations.

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40


%

Year-on-year Annual average



April 2015


Annual Data 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Real Sector Population (million) 92.6 94.2 95.8 97.5 99.4 101.4 103.5 105.5 107.6 109.8GDP per capita (USD) 2,157 2,381 2,613 2,790 2,862 3,000 3,219 3,500 3,812 4,124GDP (USD bn) 200 224 250 272 285 304 333 369 410 453GDP (PHP bn) 9,003 9,708 10,567 11,548 12,634 13,907 15,261 16,747 18,356 20,116Economic Growth (Nom. GDP, ann. var. in %) 12.2 7.8 8.8 9.3 9.4 9.3 9.7 9.7 9.6 9.6Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 7.6 3.7 6.8 7.2 6.1 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.1Private Consumption (ann. var. in %) 3.4 5.6 6.6 5.7 5.4 5.8 5.7 5.5 5.6 5.6Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) 19.1 -1.9 10.8 11.9 8.6 7.0 6.8 6.3 6.1 6.1Manufacturing (annual variation in %) 11.2 4.7 5.4 10.3 8.1 8.2 7.0 6.1 5.9 5.9Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 7.4 7.0 7.0 7.1 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.6Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -3.5 -2.0 -2.3 -1.4 -0.6 -1.6 -1.8 -1.5 -1.3 -1.3Public Debt (% of GDP) 52.4 51.0 51.5 49.2 45.4 44.8 44.0 44.0 43.7 43.3Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M2 in %) 10.4 7.0 9.4 33.5 10.5 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) 3.6 4.2 3.0 4.1 2.7 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 3.8 4.7 3.2 2.9 4.2 2.9 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5Inflation (Core, annual variation in %, aop) 3.6 4.3 3.7 2.9 3.0 - - - - -Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %, aop) 5.9 8.7 1.1 1.6 2.7 - - - - -Reverse Repurchase Rate (%, eop) 4.00 4.50 3.50 3.50 4.00 4.12 4.57 4.67 4.93 5.0091-Day Treasury Bill (%, eop) 0.78 1.56 0.20 0.00 1.42 2.15 2.67 2.69 2.71 2.9110-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 6.10 5.41 4.40 3.80 4.37 4.36 4.88 5.42 5.48 5.57Stock Market (variation of PSEi in %) 37.6 4.1 33.0 1.3 22.8 - - - - -Exchange Rate (PHP per USD, eop) 43.6 43.8 41.1 44.4 44.8 45.4 45.6 44.5 44.4 43.9Exchange Rate (PHP per USD, aop) 45.1 43.3 42.2 42.5 44.4 45.4 45.5 45.0 44.4 44.1External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 3.6 2.5 2.8 4.2 4.4 4.1 3.8 3.0 2.7 2.6Current Account Balance (USD bn) 7.2 5.6 6.9 11.4 12.6 12.4 12.6 11.1 11.0 11.9Trade Balance (USD bn) -3.4 -12.2 -10.0 -6.6 -0.9 -5.6 -5.5 -6.2 -7.2 -8.3Exports (USD bn) 51.5 48.3 52.1 55.8 61.8 62.9 68.2 72.9 77.6 82.3Imports (USD bn) 54.9 60.5 62.1 62.4 62.7 68.5 73.6 79.0 84.8 90.6Exports (annual variation in %) 34.0 -6.2 7.9 7.0 10.8 1.8 8.3 6.9 6.5 6.1Imports (annual variation in %) 27.5 10.1 2.6 0.4 0.5 9.3 7.4 7.4 7.3 6.9Remittances (USD bn) 18.8 20.1 21.4 23.0 24.3 - - - - -International Reserves (USD bn) 62.4 75.3 83.8 83.2 79.5 83.5 85.6 88.9 97.4 102.3International Reserves (months of imports) 13.6 14.9 16.2 16.0 15.2 14.6 14.0 13.5 13.8 13.6External Debt (USD bn) 60.0 60.4 60.3 58.5 58.8 57.5 56.8 58.4 59.1 59.3External Debt (% of GDP) 30.1 26.9 24.1 21.5 20.7 18.9 17.1 15.8 14.4 13.1 Quarterly Data Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 5.3 6.9 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.2 6.2Economic Growth (GDP, s.a. qoq var. in %) 0.7 2.5 - - - - - - - -Real Retail Sales (annual variation in %) 3.3 2.7 - - - - - - - -Consumer Confidence (0-point threshold) -26.3 -21.8 - - - - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 4.7 3.6 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.7Reverse Repurchase Rate (%, eop) 4.00 4.00 4.05 4.07 4.10 4.12 4.33 4.39 4.51 4.5791-Day Treasury Bill (%, eop) 1.24 1.42 1.75 2.00 2.09 2.15 2.28 2.33 2.42 2.6710-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 4.35 4.37 4.37 4.36 4.36 4.36 4.40 4.43 4.67 4.88Exchange Rate (PHP per USD, eop) 45.0 44.8 45.2 45.4 45.7 45.4 45.4 45.6 45.5 45.6Trade Balance (USD bn) 0.2 0.1 -0.9 1.4 0.4 -0.2 -1.2 1.1 -0.4 0.0Exports (USD bn) 16.8 15.2 14.8 16.1 17.5 15.8 16.0 17.4 18.7 17.0Imports (USD bn) 16.6 15.1 16.0 15.2 17.4 16.2 17.2 16.3 19.1 17.3Exports (annual variation in %) 12.9 6.3 3.1 4.2 4.1 4.0 8.6 7.7 7.0 7.4Imports (annual variation in %) -1.3 -5.1 -1.3 2.5 5.0 7.3 7.5 7.0 9.8 7.1 Monthly Data May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15Real Retail Sales (annual variation in %) 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.7 3.2 2.8 3.0 2.3 1.8 -Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.51 0.43 0.57 0.29 0.07 0.07 -0.14 -0.21 0.36 0.14Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 4.5 4.4 4.9 4.9 4.4 4.3 3.7 2.7 2.4 2.5Exchange Rate (PHP per USD, eop) 43.8 43.6 43.6 43.7 45.0 45.0 45.0 44.8 44.2 44.1Trade Balance (USD bn) 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 -0.1 0.3 -0.1 - -Exports (annual variation in %) 6.9 21.3 12.4 10.5 15.7 2.5 21.7 -3.2 -0.5 -Imports (annual variation in %) -9.6 -3.6 0.0 -1.3 -2.6 7.5 -10.8 -10.6 - -Remittances (annual var. in %) 5.4 5.9 6.0 6.0 7.9 7.0 2.0 6.6 0.5 -



April 2015


1 | Real GDP | 2000-2019 | variation in %








Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB), the National Statistics Office (NSO) and the Central Bank of the Philippines (BSP, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: NSCB.2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.

Source: NSCB.3 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 Private consumption, annual variation in %. Source: NSCB.6 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %. Source: NSCB.7 Private consumption, change in 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last


last 18 months.9 Manufacturing, annual variation in %. Source: NSO.10 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: NSO.11 Balance of national government as % of GDP. Source: BSP.12 Manufacturing, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18

months.13 Unemployment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18

months.14 Balance of national government as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016ANZ 6.1 6.3Banco de Oro 6.5 6.8BofA Merrill Lynch 6.1 6.1BPI AMTG 6.5 -Capital Economics 6.5 6.5Citigroup Global Mkts 6.7 6.5Credit Agricole 6.2 7.0Credit Suisse 6.4 6.4Daiwa 5.3 4.9DBS Bank 6.3 6.0Deutsche Bank 6.5 6.5EIU 6.7 6.6Frontier Strategy Group 6.6 6.5Goldman Sachs 6.8 6.1HSBC 6.0 6.1ING 6.7 7.0JPMorgan 6.4 5.9Maybank Investment Bank 7.0 -Metrobank 6.4 6.6Morgan Stanley 6.3 6.3Nomura 6.6 6.5Oxford Economics 6.5 6.3Philippine Equity Partners 6.1 6.0Standard Chartered 6.0 5.7UBS 6.5 5.8SummaryMinimum 5.3 4.9Maximum 7.0 7.0Median 6.5 6.3Consensus 6.4 6.3History30 days ago 6.3 6.260 days ago 6.2 6.290 days ago 6.2 6.2Additional ForecastsGovernment (Jan. 2015) 7.0-8.0 7.0-8.0IMF (Oct. 2014) 6.3 6.0ADB (Dec. 2014) 6.4 -

-5

0

5

10

15

2000 2005 2010 2015

PhilippinesAsia (ex Japan)World

0

3

6

9

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

PhilippinesAsia (ex Japan)World

4

5

6

7

8



4

5

6

7

8



5.0

5.2

5.4

5.6

5.8

6.0


2015 2016

2

4

6

8

10

12

2000 2005 2010 2015

PhilippinesAsia (ex Japan)

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015


6

7

8

9

10

11


2015 2016



April 2015


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016ANZ - - - - - - - -Banco de Oro 5.9 5.7 7.4 7.0 6.7 6.7 -1.8 -1.8BofA Merrill Lynch - - - - - - - -BPI AMTG - - - - - - - -Capital Economics 6.0 - 8.0 - - - -1.5 -Citigroup Global Mkts 5.7 5.8 - - 6.5 6.0 -1.3 -1.2Credit Agricole - - - - - - - -Credit Suisse 5.7 5.4 6.3 7.0 - - -0.5 -0.6Daiwa - - - - - - -2.4 -2.6DBS Bank 5.4 5.2 - - - - -1.0 -1.5Deutsche Bank 6.0 5.4 5.1 5.5 - - -2.2 -2.4EIU 6.5 6.2 8.1 6.0 6.8 6.9 -2.0 -2.4Frontier Strategy Group 5.8 5.6 - - 6.6 6.5 - -Goldman Sachs - - - - - - - -HSBC 5.4 5.5 4.7 5.9 7.3 7.3 -1.1 -1.4ING - - - - - - - -JPMorgan - - - - - - -2.0 -Maybank Investment Bank 5.7 - - - 6.5 - -1.8 -Metrobank - - - - - - - -Morgan Stanley 6.0 6.0 8.5 8.5 - - -2.0 -2.0Nomura 6.2 6.2 - - 6.4 6.2 -2.0 -2.0Oxford Economics - - 7.7 7.4 6.9 7.1 -0.9 -1.0Philippine Equity Partners - - - - - - -2.0 -2.3Standard Chartered - - - - - - - -UBS 4.8 5.4 - - - - -2.0 -2.3SummaryMinimum 4.8 5.2 4.7 5.5 6.4 6.0 -2.4 -2.6Maximum 6.5 6.2 8.5 8.5 7.3 7.3 -0.5 -0.6Median 5.8 5.6 7.6 7.0 6.7 6.7 -1.9 -2.0Consensus 5.8 5.7 7.0 6.8 6.7 6.7 -1.6 -1.8History30 days ago 5.9 5.7 7.4 7.0 6.7 6.7 -1.8 -1.860 days ago 5.9 5.7 7.8 7.2 6.8 6.7 -1.7 -1.890 days ago 5.8 5.6 7.7 6.9 6.8 6.9 -1.8 -1.8



Fiscal Balance % of GDP


12 | Manufacturing | evolution of fcst

9 | Manufacturing | variation in %





5

6

7

8

9


2015 2016

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015


6.5

6.7

6.9

7.1

7.3


2015 2016

3

6

9

12

2000 2005 2010 2015


-3

-2

-1

0


2015 2016

-6

-4

-2

0

2

2000 2005 2010 2015

Philippines

Asia (ex Japan)



April 2015



Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the National Statistics Office (NSO) and the Central Bank of the Philippines (BSP, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 15 Inflation, annual average variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %.

Source: NSO.16 Inflation, annual variation of quarterly average consumer price index

(CPI) in %. Source: NSO.17 Inflation, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.18 Inflation, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.19 Core and producer price indices, annual variation in % (aop). 2005-

2014. Source: NSO.20 Money, annual variation of M2 in %. 2001-2014. Source: BSP.21 Daily MSCI Price Index in USD. Jan. 2010 until end of previous week.

Source: MSCI Barra.22 Daily index levels, PSEi. Jan. 2010 until end of previous week. Source:

The Philippine Stock Exchange.

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016ANZ 3.0 3.5Banco de Oro 3.8 3.8BofA Merrill Lynch 2.8 3.5BPI AMTG 3.0 -Capital Economics 3.0 3.0Citigroup Global Mkts 2.6 3.1Credit Agricole 3.5 3.5Credit Suisse 2.7 3.7Daiwa 3.6 3.1DBS Bank 3.2 3.8Deutsche Bank 2.5 3.5EIU 3.0 3.7Frontier Strategy Group 3.0 3.1Goldman Sachs 2.4 2.9HSBC 2.6 3.6ING 2.8 3.2JPMorgan 1.5 -Maybank Investment Bank 3.5 -Metrobank 2.8 3.9Morgan Stanley 2.7 3.4Nomura 2.5 3.2Oxford Economics 2.8 3.5Philippine Equity Partners 2.8 3.2Standard Chartered 3.2 3.7UBS 2.6 4.2SummaryMinimum 1.5 2.9Maximum 3.8 4.2Median 2.8 3.5Consensus 2.9 3.5History30 days ago 3.1 3.460 days ago 3.3 3.690 days ago 3.7 3.8Additional ForecastsCentral Bank Target 3.0±1.0 -IMF (Oct. 2014) 3.9 3.5ADB (Dec. 2014) 4.1 -

15 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | in %


19 | Core and Producer Prices | var. in %


16 | Inflation | Q1 12-Q4 16 | in %



22 | Stock Market | PSEi

-5

0

5

10

15

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Core PPI

150

250

350

450

550

650


1

2

3

4

5



0

3

6

9

2000 2005 2010 2015


0

10

20

30

40

2001 2004 2007 2010 2013

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000


2

3

4

5



2

3

4

5

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q4 15

Philippines

Asia (ex Japan)



April 2015



Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary and external sector data are from the National Statistics Office (NSO) and the Central Bank of the Philippines (BSP, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 23 Interest rate, Reverse Repurchase Rate in % (eop). Source: BSP.24 Quarterly interest rate, Reverse Repurchase Rate in % (eop). Source:

BSP.25 Interest rate, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.26 Interest rate, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.27 Exchange rate, PHP per USD (eop). Source: Thomson Reuters.28 Quarterly exchange rate, PHP per USD (eop). Source: Thomson Reuters.29 Exchange rate, evolution of 2015 forecast during the last 18 months.30 Exchange rate, evolution of 2016 forecast during the last 18 months.31 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: NSO.32 Trade balance, imports and exports, in USD bn. Source: NSO.33 International reserves, months of imports. Source: BSP.34 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016

forecasts during the last 18 months.35 Exports, annual variation in %. Source: NSO.36 External debt as % GDP. Source: BSP.

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016ANZ 4.00 4.50 46.0 47.5Banco de Oro 4.50 5.00 45.5 45.5BofA Merrill Lynch 4.00 4.25 46.5 45.0BPI AMTG 4.00 - 45.5 -Capital Economics 4.50 4.50 - -Citigroup Global Mkts 4.00 4.50 45.5 45.9Credit Agricole 4.50 4.75 45.3 44.5Credit Suisse 4.00 4.50 44.8 45.0Daiwa 4.00 3.75 47.0 48.0DBS Bank 4.00 - 45.4 -Deutsche Bank 4.00 5.00 45.3 44.3EIU - - 43.8 43.0Frontier Strategy Group - - - -Goldman Sachs 4.00 4.50 47.0 47.0HSBC 4.00 4.50 45.4 45.9ING 4.50 5.00 45.5 46.5JPMorgan 3.75 - 45.4 -Maybank Investment Bank - - 45.6 -Metrobank 4.00 4.50 44.0 43.5Morgan Stanley 4.25 4.25 46.5 46.0Nomura 4.00 5.00 44.9 43.7Oxford Economics - - 43.8 43.3Philippine Equity Partners 4.00 4.25 45.5 46.5Standard Chartered 4.50 - 43.5 -UBS 4.00 5.00 47.0 49.0SummaryMinimum 3.75 3.75 43.5 43.0Maximum 4.50 5.00 47.0 49.0Median 4.00 4.50 45.5 45.7Consensus 4.12 4.57 45.4 45.6History30 days ago 4.15 4.60 45.7 45.860 days ago 4.28 4.61 45.7 45.790 days ago 4.34 4.73 45.4 45.2

Interest Rate Exchange Rate% PHP per USD

23 | Interest Rate | 2000 - 2019 | in %


27 | Exchange Rate | PHP per USD

29 | PHP per USD 2015 | evol. of fcst



28 | Exchange Rate | PHP per USD

30 | PHP per USD 2016 | evol. of fcst

35

40

45

50

55



35

40

45

50



2

3

4

5

6



40

42

44

46

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q4 15

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q4 15

40

45

50

55

60

2000 2005 2010 2015

0

5

10

15

2000 2005 2010 2015

3

4

5

6





April 2015








Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016ANZ 3.0 3.2 - - - - - - - -Banco de Oro 2.6 2.6 -11.3 -12.5 60.8 66.7 72.1 79.2 85.7 90.9BofA Merrill Lynch 2.7 2.5 -8.0 -8.4 58.1 61.0 66.1 69.4 85.0 85.0BPI AMTG - - - - - - - - - -Capital Economics - - - - - - - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts 5.9 5.8 - - - - - - 82.5 85.0Credit Agricole 3.8 3.5 - - - - - - - -Credit Suisse 6.0 5.3 - - - - - - 80.0 80.0Daiwa 3.5 3.5 -0.7 0.2 64.5 67.8 65.1 67.6 - -DBS Bank - - -4.0 -1.0 64.0 71.0 68.0 72.0 81.0 82.0Deutsche Bank 4.8 4.4 - - - - - - 82.8 86.1EIU 4.0 3.6 - - - - - - 79.9 87.7Frontier Strategy Group - - - - - - - - - -Goldman Sachs 4.6 3.8 - - - - - - - -HSBC 4.1 3.8 - - - - - - 88.0 94.0ING - - - - - - - - - -JPMorgan 6.1 - - - - - - - 86.8 -Maybank Investment Bank 2.8 - - - - - - - - -Metrobank - - -10.0 -10.0 70.0 80.0 80.0 90.0 - -Morgan Stanley 3.5 3.4 - - - - - - - -Nomura 4.0 3.6 - - - - - - - -Oxford Economics 4.6 4.7 - - - - - - - -Philippine Equity Partners 2.9 2.7 -8.0 -8.4 58.1 61.0 66.1 69.4 - -Standard Chartered 2.7 2.5 - - - - - - - -UBS 5.8 5.2 2.8 1.9 65.0 69.6 62.2 67.7 83.5 79.7SummaryMinimum 2.6 2.5 -11.3 -12.5 58.1 61.0 62.2 67.6 79.9 79.7Maximum 6.1 5.8 2.8 1.9 70.0 80.0 80.0 90.0 88.0 94.0Median 4.0 3.6 -8.0 -8.4 64.0 67.8 66.1 69.4 83.2 85.0Consensus 4.1 3.8 -5.6 -5.5 62.9 68.2 68.5 73.6 83.5 85.6History30 days ago 3.9 3.6 -6.2 -6.7 63.0 67.6 69.2 74.3 81.0 83.060 days ago 3.6 3.4 -5.9 -6.7 63.0 67.6 69.0 74.3 82.1 84.390 days ago 3.3 2.9 -7.1 -7.8 62.5 67.7 69.6 75.4 83.4 85.2



Exports Imports

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5


2015 2016

-5

0

5

10

2000 2005 2010 2015


-40

-20

0

20

40

2000 2005 2010 2015


-50

0

50

100

2000 2005 2010 2015

Trade BalanceExportsImports

0

20

40

60

80

2000 2005 2010 2015

Philippines

Asia (ex Japan)

0

5

10

15

20

2000 2005 2010 2015




April 2015

Philippines in the Region


Fact Sheet

Philippines1.7%

China60.6%

India12.3%

Korea8.0%

Indonesia5.0%

Other12.4%

Philippines3.0%

China41.1%

India37.8%

Indonesia7.6%

Vietnam2.7%

Other7.8%

U.S.A.23.0%

EU-278.2%

Other Asia ex-Japan

5.2%China6.2%

LatAm20.0%

Other37.4%

Japan19.0%

U.S.A.14.2%

EU-2711.4%

Other Asia ex-Japan

11.0%

China11.8%

Singapore9.3%

Hong Kong9.2%

Other14.0%

Other9.0%


Mineral Fuels20.9%

Food10.4%

Other11.2%


Ores & Metals5.7%

Food10.1%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

-30

0

30

60

90

1202005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• Weak fiscal structure• Inadequate infrastructure

• Well-educated labor force• Solid telecom infrastructure• Large domestic market

.

• Widespread English proficiency

• Low savings and investment pose limits to growth

Energy (2012)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 502Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 1,307Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 69.7Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 61.3Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 25Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 308CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 84.0

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: Baa2 StableS&P: BBB StableFitch Ratings: BBB- Stable


Transportation (2013) Airports: 247Railways (km): 995Roadways (km): 213,151Waterways (km): 3,219Chief Ports: Manila

Official name: Republic of thePhilippines

Capital: Manila (11.5 m)Other cities: Davao (1.5 m)

Cebu City (0.8 m)Area (km2): 300,000Population (million, 2014 est.): 99.4Population density (per km2, 2014): 331Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 1.8Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 72.5Illiteracy rate (%, 2008 est.): 4.6Language: Filipino and EnglishMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT+8

President: Benigno Aquino IIILast elections: 10 May 2010Next elections: 9 May 2016Central Bank Governor: Amando M. Tetangco Jr.

FOCUSECONOMICS Singapore


April 2015

Singapore

REAL SECTOR | Manufacturing PMI remains in contractionary territory in February The manufacturing PMI produced by the Singapore Institute of Purchasing & Materials Management (SIPMM) inched down from 49.9 in January to 49.7 in February. The index has been on a downward trend since October of last year, when it recorded a multi-year-high of 51.9. February’s print marks the third consecutive reading below the 50-threshold that separates contraction from expansion in the manufacturing sector.

February’s reading reflected moderate improvements in employment, stocks of purchases, and input prices. The delivery times and manufacturing imports remained broadly unchanged compared to the previous month. Conversely, notable declines were recorded in new orders, new export orders and manufacturing output. The electronics PMI moderated from 50.5 in January to 49.8 in February.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect manufacturing output growth of 1.6% in 2015, which is down 0.9 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel expects manufacturing output growth of 3.7%.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore expects GDP to grow between 2.0% and 4.0% in 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project

After expanding a strong 4.9% over the previous quarter at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) in Q4, Singapore’s economy has been showing signs of moderation during the first months of 2015. The manufacturing PMI remained entrenched in contractionary territory in February and export growth posted its weakest result in two years in the same month. Moreover, high household debt coupled with a likely hike in local interest rates following the expected normalization in the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy will take a toll on private consumption during the second half of the year. However, the more expansionary fiscal stance unveiled in the 2015 budget, together with the Central Bank’s easing in January, are expected to partially offset the deterioration in consumer spending.

Singapore’s economy is expected to grow at a similar rate in 2015 as it did last year. FocusEconomics panelists project that the economy will grow 3.0% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel sees economic growth picking up to 3.3%.

Consumer prices declined 0.3% year-on-year in February (January: -0.4% year-on-year) amid subdued domestic demand and low energy prices. FocusEconomics panelists expect inflation to average 0.2% in 2015. For 2016, the panel sees inflation picking up to 1.4%.

Outlook stable


Cecilia SimkievichEconomist

Singapore

2011-13 2014-16 2017-19Population (million): 5.3 5.5 5.6GDP (USD bn): 290 304 367GDP per capita (USD): 54,628 55,197 65,577GDP growth (%): 4.7 3.1 3.4Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): 1.5 0.3 0.3Public Debt (% of GDP): 103.9 108.1 110.2Inflation (%): 4.1 0.9 2.2Current Account (% of GDP): 19.0 18.7 16.8


Note: Purchasing Managers’ Index. Readings above 50 indicate an expansion in the manufacturing sector while readings below 50 indicate a contraction.Source: Singapore Institute of Purchasing and Materials Management (SIPMM).

48

49

50

51

52




April 2015

that the economy will increase 3.0% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel expects growth to accelerate to 3.3%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Consumer prices continue falling in FebruaryIn February, consumer prices increased 0.1% over the previous month, which contrasted the 0.2% fall tallied in January. According to Statistics Singapore, February’s slight increase was driven by higher prices for household durable goods, food, recreation and culture. Conversely, education, as well as transport recorded lower prices than in the previous month.

Consumer prices fell 0.3% annually in February, which followed the 0.4% drop recorded in January and came in just below the 0.2% decline that the markets had expected. As a result of February’s decrease, annual average inflation inched down from January’s 0.9% to 0.8%, which marked the lowest level since June 2010.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore’s (MAS) annual core inflation measure, which excludes the cost of accommodation and private road transport, increased from 1.0% in January to 1.3% in February.

The MAS revised downwards its inflation forecasts for 2015 from a range between 0.5% and 1.5% projected in October to a range of between minus 0.5% and plus 0.5% in January. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation to average 0.2% in 2015, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2016, the panel sees average inflation at 1.4%.

EXTERNAL SECTOR | Exports tumble in February; hit two-year-lowIn February, non-oil domestic exports (NODX) fell 9.7% over the same month of last year, which contrasted the 4.3% increase tallied in January. The print came in well below the 0.9% decrease that the markets had expected and marked the lowest reading in two years.

February’s strong contraction came amid a slowdown in the global economy, although it mainly reflected the sharp deceleration in demand from China. According to International Enterprise (IE) Singapore, the result reflected strong contractions in both electronic and non-electronic exports. Electronics exports fell 12.5% in February, contrasting the 5.0% rise registered in the previous month. Meanwhile, exports of non-electronic products swung from a 4.0% increase in January to an 8.5% drop in February.

On a month-on-month seasonally-adjusted basis, exports declined 9.4% in February, which contrasted the 1.6% expansion seen in January.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see overall nominal exports contracting 1.4% in 2015, which would bring down exports to a total of USD 432 billion. For 2016, the panel projects exports to grow 2.1%, reaching a total of 442 billion.


Note: Annual and monthly variation of consumer price index in %.Source: Statistics Singapore (Singstat).

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0




%%

Non-Oil Domestic Exports (NODX) | variation in %

Note: Year-on-year and seasonally adjusted month-on-month variation of non-oil domestic exports in %.Source: Statistics Singapore (Singstat) and FocusEconomics calculations.

-30

-20

-10

0

10

-20

-10

0

10

20


%%





April 2015


Annual Data 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Real Sector Population (million) 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6GDP per capita (USD) 46,583 53,277 54,629 55,979 56,380 53,843 55,368 59,887 65,646 71,198GDP (USD bn) 237 276 290 302 309 297 306 333 367 400GDP (SGD bn) 323 346 362 378 390 405 425 447 472 500Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) 15.3 7.4 4.6 4.4 3.1 3.2 4.7 5.4 5.6 5.8Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 15.2 6.2 3.4 4.4 2.9 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.5Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 5.9 4.0 3.4 3.6 2.5 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.7 3.0Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) 7.8 5.2 8.6 1.2 -1.9 1.6 3.3 3.7 4.0 4.2Manufacturing (annual var. in %) 29.7 7.8 0.3 1.7 2.6 1.6 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.5Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 2.2 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 0.3 1.4 1.9 1.2 1.3 -0.5 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4Public Debt (% of GDP) 99.6 102.2 106.3 103.2 99.3 112.6 112.4 110.9 110.0 109.6Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M2 in %) 8.6 10.0 7.2 4.3 3.3 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) 4.6 5.5 4.3 1.5 -0.1 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 2.8 5.2 4.6 2.4 1.0 0.2 1.4 2.1 2.2 2.3Inflation (DSPI, annual variation in %, aop) 4.7 8.4 0.5 -2.7 -3.3 - - - - -3-Month ABS SIBOR (%, eop) 0.44 0.39 0.38 0.40 0.46 1.15 2.05 2.10 2.21 2.3510-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 2.71 1.63 1.30 2.56 2.28 2.66 2.71 3.25 3.28 3.60Stock Market (variation of FTSE STI in %) 10.1 -17.0 19.7 0.0 6.2 - - - - -Exchange Rate (SGD per USD, eop) 1.28 1.30 1.22 1.26 1.33 1.38 1.36 1.30 1.25 1.23Exchange Rate (SGD per USD, aop) 1.36 1.26 1.25 1.25 1.27 1.36 1.38 1.33 1.28 1.24External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 23.7 22.0 17.2 17.9 19.1 18.9 18.3 17.1 16.7 16.6Current Account Balance (USD bn) 56.1 60.8 49.8 54.0 58.9 56.0 55.9 57.0 61.1 66.2Trade Balance (USD bn) 63.0 71.8 67.5 74.5 76.5 70.3 71.5 75.2 86.0 96.2Exports (USD bn) 370 437 440 442 438 432 442 461 497 538Imports (USD bn) 307 365 372 367 362 362 370 386 411 442Exports (annual variation in %) 28.1 18.0 0.6 0.5 -0.7 -1.4 2.1 4.4 7.9 8.1Imports (annual variation in %) 27.4 18.8 1.9 -1.3 -1.4 0.1 2.2 4.2 6.6 7.4International Reserves (USD bn) 226 238 259 273 257 263 271 283 296 308International Reserves (months of imports) 8.8 7.8 8.4 8.9 8.5 8.7 8.8 8.8 8.6 8.4External Debt (USD bn) 1,051 1,150 1,217 1,302 - - - - - -External Debt (% of GDP) 444 416 419 431 - - - - - - Quarterly Data Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 2.8 2.1 2.4 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.2Economic Growth (GDP, qoq SAAR in %) 2.6 4.9 0.5 3.9 3.8 3.3 2.9 3.2 3.1 3.7Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 1.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.63-Month ABS SIBOR (%, eop) 0.41 0.46 0.69 0.85 0.91 1.15 1.27 1.46 1.66 2.0510-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 2.47 2.28 2.38 2.59 2.63 2.66 2.66 2.66 2.70 2.71Exchange Rate (SGD per USD, eop) 1.28 1.33 1.35 1.36 1.37 1.38 1.38 1.38 1.37 1.36Trade Balance (USD bn) 20.8 19.4 - - - - - - - -Exports (USD bn) 111.5 104.1 - - - - - - - -Imports (USD bn) 90.7 84.7 - - - - - - - -Exports (annual variation in %) -1.0 -7.9 - - - - - - - -Imports (annual variation in %) -3.0 -9.3 - - - - - - - - Monthly Data May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15Manufacturing (annual var. in %) -1.9 0.7 2.6 3.8 -1.2 0.2 -1.9 -1.9 0.9 -Real Retail Sales (annual variation in %) -7.2 -2.2 2.8 2.8 1.5 7.4 5.8 4.5 -4.0 -SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (50-threshold) 50.8 50.5 51.5 49.7 50.5 51.9 51.8 49.6 49.9 49.7Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.3 -0.2 -0.3 0.5 -0.2 -0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.1Inflation (CPI, annual var. in %) 2.3 1.9 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.4 -0.3Exchange Rate (SGD per USD, eop) 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.28 1.29 1.30 1.33 1.35 1.36Non-Oil Domestic Exports (annual var. in %) -6.6 -4.6 -3.3 6.0 0.9 -1.5 0.8 2.3 4.3 -9.7



April 2015


1 | Real GDP | 2000-2019 | var. in %








Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from Statistics Singapore (Singstat), the Ministry of Manpower, the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) and the Ministry of Finance (MOF). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: MTI and Singstat.2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.

Source: MTI and Singstat.3 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 Private consumption, annual variation in %. Source: MTI and Singstat.6 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %. Source: MTI and

Singstat.7 Private consumption, change in 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last


last 18 months.9 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: Singstat.10 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: Ministry of Manpower.11 Fiscal balance as % of GDP. Fiscal year ending March. Source: MOF.12 Industrial production, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the


months.14 Fiscal balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016ANZ 3.2 3.4BofA Merrill Lynch 2.8 3.2Capital Economics 3.0 3.0Citigroup Global Mkts 3.0 2.8Credit Agricole 3.7 3.4Credit Suisse 3.2 4.7Daiwa 2.6 2.4DBS Bank 3.2 3.5Deutsche Bank 3.0 3.5EIU 3.1 3.2Goldman Sachs 3.1 3.5HSBC 2.6 3.6ING 2.9 3.1JPMorgan 2.7 3.9Maybank Investment Bank 3.6 -Morgan Stanley 3.2 3.4Nomura 2.7 2.5OCBC Bank 2.5 3.0Oxford Economics 3.3 3.6Standard Chartered 3.0 4.0UBS 2.5 2.5United Overseas Bank 3.3 3.4SummaryMinimum 2.5 2.4Maximum 3.7 4.7Median 3.0 3.4Consensus 3.0 3.3History30 days ago 3.0 3.260 days ago 3.1 3.390 days ago 3.1 3.4Additional ForecastsMAS (Jan. 2015) 2.0 - 4.0 -IMF (Oct. 2014) 3.0 3.0ADB (Dec. 2014) 3.5 -

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

SingaporeAsia (ex Japan)World

0

3

6

9

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

SingaporeAsia (ex Japan)World

2

3

4

5

6



2

3

4

5

6



1

2

3

4

5


2015 2016

-5

0

5

10

15

2000 2005 2010 2015

SingaporeAsia (ex Japan)

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015


1.0

2.5

4.0

5.5

7.0


2015 2016



April 2015


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016ANZ - - - - - - - - - -BofA Merrill Lynch 2.5 2.6 -1.0 1.5 - - 1.8 1.7 0.5 0.2Capital Economics 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 - - 2.0 2.0 - -Citigroup Global Mkts 0.5 -0.1 - - - - 2.2 2.3 - -Credit Agricole - - - - - - - - - -Credit Suisse 1.3 0.9 4.0 4.0 - - 2.0 2.0 -0.7 -0.9Daiwa - - - - - - - - -1.5 -1.0DBS Bank 2.2 2.6 0.3 2.4 1.2 4.3 2.1 2.0 - -Deutsche Bank 1.3 3.6 -3.3 2.1 3.0 4.0 - - - -EIU 3.3 3.1 3.9 4.5 2.0 3.3 1.9 1.9 -1.6 0.6Goldman Sachs - - - - - - - - - -HSBC 2.0 1.3 3.5 4.1 0.9 4.7 1.9 1.9 1.3 1.5ING - - - - - - - - - -JPMorgan 0.9 - -0.9 - - - - - - -Maybank Investment Bank - - - - - - - - - -Morgan Stanley 2.1 2.3 2.3 3.4 - - - - -0.5 0.0Nomura 2.2 2.1 2.7 3.7 - - 2.0 2.0 -1.0 -0.5OCBC Bank 2.7 3.1 0.4 2.7 1.9 3.5 - - - -Oxford Economics 3.3 4.2 5.1 6.4 0.3 4.0 2.0 2.1 - -Standard Chartered - - - - - - - - - -UBS 1.1 1.8 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.6 3.1 0.5 -0.8United Overseas Bank - - - - - - 2.1 2.1 -1.7 1.0SummaryMinimum 0.5 -0.1 -3.3 1.5 0.3 2.2 1.8 1.7 -1.7 -1.0Maximum 3.3 4.2 5.1 6.4 3.0 4.7 2.6 3.1 1.3 1.5Median 2.2 2.3 2.3 3.1 1.9 4.0 2.0 2.0 -0.7 0.0Consensus 2.0 2.3 1.6 3.3 1.6 3.7 2.1 2.1 -0.5 0.0History30 days ago 1.7 2.1 1.7 3.0 2.5 3.8 2.1 2.1 0.5 0.460 days ago 1.8 2.2 2.1 3.1 2.4 3.9 2.1 2.1 0.5 0.490 days ago 2.1 2.6 2.2 3.4 3.1 4.0 2.1 2.1 0.5 0.3

variation in % variation in % variation in % % of active pop. % of GDP Consumption Investment Manufacturing Unemployment Fiscal Balance

12 | Manufacturing | evolution of fcst






1

2

3

4

5


2015 2016

-20

0

20

40

2000 2005 2010 2015


1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4


2015 2016

1

2

3

4

5

2000 2005 2010 2015


-1

0

1

2

3


2015 2016

-4

-2

0

2

4

2000 2005 2010 2015




April 2015



Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from Statistics Singapore (Singstat) and the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 15 Inflation, annual average variation of consumer price index (CPI) of %.

Source: Singstat.16 Inflation, annual variation of quarterly average consumer price index

(CPI) in %. Source: Singstat.17 Inflation, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.18 Inflation, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.19 Domestic supply price index and core inflation, annual variation in %

(aop). 2001-2014. Source: Singstat.20 Money, annual variation of M2 in %. 2000-2014. Source: MAS.21 10-year bond yield in %. Jan. 2000 until the end of previous month.

Source: MAS.22 Daily index levels, FTSE Straits Times Index (STI). Source: Singapore

Exchange Limited. Jan. 2010 until end of previous week.

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016ANZ 0.0 1.4BofA Merrill Lynch 0.1 1.6Capital Economics 0.5 2.0Citigroup Global Mkts -0.2 1.1Credit Agricole - -Credit Suisse -0.3 0.9Daiwa 1.0 1.2DBS Bank 0.4 1.3Deutsche Bank 0.3 1.6EIU 0.3 1.5Goldman Sachs 1.0 2.1HSBC -0.4 1.0ING 0.0 0.5JPMorgan 0.1 -Maybank Investment Bank - -Morgan Stanley -0.2 1.0Nomura 0.7 1.5OCBC Bank 0.0 1.7Oxford Economics 0.0 2.0Standard Chartered 0.1 2.3UBS -0.1 1.1United Overseas Bank 0.3 0.8SummaryMinimum -0.4 0.5Maximum 1.0 2.3Median 0.1 1.4Consensus 0.2 1.4History30 days ago 0.4 1.560 days ago 0.9 1.790 days ago 1.2 2.0Additional ForecastsMAS (Jan. 2015) -0.5 /+0.5 -IMF (Oct. 2014) 2.5 2.7ADB (Dec. 2014) 1.7 -

15 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | in %


19 | Core Prices and DSPI | var. in %

21 | 10-Year Bond Yield | in %

16 | Inflation | Q1 12-Q4 16 | in %



22 | Stock Market | Straits Times Index

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Core DSPI

1

2

3

4

5

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

-1

0

1

2

3

4



-2

0

2

4

6

8

2000 2005 2010 2015


-5

0

5

10

15

20

20002002200420062008201020122014

2,400

2,800

3,200

3,600


0

1

2

3

4

5



-2

0

2

4

6

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q3 16




April 2015


Interest Rate and Exchange Rate

Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary and external sector data are from Statistics Singapore (Singstat), the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI), Thomson Reuters, and Ministry of Labor. See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 23 3-month ABS SIBOR in % (eop). Source: Ministry of Labor.24 Quarterly 3-month ABS SIBOR in % (eop). Source: Ministry of Labor.25 Interest rate, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.26 Interest rate, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.27 Exchange rate, SGD per USD (eop). Source: Thomson Reuters.28 Quarterly exchange rate, SGD per USD (eop). Source: Thomson

Reuters.29 Exchange rate, evolution of 2015 forecast during the last 18 months.30 Exchange rate, evolution of 2016 forecast during the last 18 months.31 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: MTI.32 Trade balance, imports and exports, in USD bn. Source: MTI and

Singstat.33 International reserves, months of imports. Source: MAS.34 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016

forecasts during the last 18 months.35 Exports, annual variation in %. Source: MTI and Singstat.36 International reserves in USD bn, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016ANZ - - 1.39 1.42BofA Merrill Lynch 1.10 2.00 1.45 1.41Capital Economics - - 1.32 1.30Citigroup Global Mkts 1.00 1.55 1.40 1.37Credit Agricole - - 1.36 1.34Credit Suisse 1.00 2.00 1.37 1.40Daiwa - - 1.38 1.37DBS Bank 0.85 - 1.36 -Deutsche Bank 1.20 - 1.40 -EIU 1.00 3.00 1.36 1.30Goldman Sachs - - 1.33 1.32HSBC 1.90 1.40 1.40 1.42ING 1.00 1.90 1.43 1.45JPMorgan - - 1.41 -Maybank Investment Bank - - - -Morgan Stanley - - 1.34 1.30Nomura 1.40 2.40 1.34 1.32OCBC Bank - - - -Oxford Economics 0.70 1.30 1.37 1.32Standard Chartered 1.10 - 1.36 -UBS 1.40 2.90 1.40 1.42United Overseas Bank 1.30 - 1.44 -SummaryMinimum 0.70 1.30 1.32 1.30Maximum 1.90 3.00 1.45 1.45Median 1.10 2.00 1.38 1.37Consensus 1.15 2.05 1.38 1.36History30 days ago 1.04 2.08 1.35 1.3460 days ago 0.88 1.93 1.34 1.3490 days ago 0.78 1.89 1.31 1.28

Interest Rate Exchange Rate% SGD per USD

23 | Interest Rate | 2000 - 2019 | in %


27 | Exchange Rate | SGD per USD

29 | SGD per USD 2015 | evol. of fcst



28 | Exchange Rate | SGD per USD

30 | SGD per USD 2016 | evol. of fcst

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5



1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5



0

1

2

3



1.20

1.25

1.30

1.35

1.40

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q3 16

0

1

2

3

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q3 16

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2000 2005 2010 2015

0

1

2

3

4

2000 2005 2010 2015

0

1

2

3

4





April 2015






36 | Int. Reserves (USD bn) | evol. of fcst


14

16

18

20

22


2015 2016

0

10

20

30

2000 2005 2010 2015


-20

0

20

40

2000 2005 2010 2015


0

200

400

600

2000 2005 2010 2015


260

280

300

320

340

360


2015 2016

5

10

15

20

2000 2005 2010 2015


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016ANZ 14.1 13.2 - - - - - - - -BofA Merrill Lynch 20.1 20.7 72.0 73.5 418 417 346 344 250 252Capital Economics - - - - - - - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts 18.0 17.0 65.0 68.0 445 453 380 385 250 255Credit Agricole 19.1 18.5 - - - - - - - -Credit Suisse 20.4 18.4 - - - - - - - -Daiwa 20.5 19.2 51.6 49.4 417 426 365 376 - -DBS Bank 19.0 19.0 - - - - - - 251 260Deutsche Bank 19.6 18.2 84.0 86.6 469 483 385 396 - -EIU 20.4 18.7 77.8 76.6 418 437 340 360 262 271Goldman Sachs 19.9 18.5 - - - - - - - -HSBC 16.6 17.6 78.7 81.8 434 447 355 365 256 266ING - - - - - - - - - -JPMorgan - - 62.5 - 472 - 409 - 278 -Maybank Investment Bank - - - - - - - - - -Morgan Stanley 17.2 16.6 69.0 68.0 457 488 388 420 - -Nomura 18.0 15.5 69.4 58.3 402 397 333 339 - -OCBC Bank - - - - - - - - - -Oxford Economics 16.3 17.4 73.4 81.0 394 428 321 347 292 322Standard Chartered 19.5 19.0 - - - - - - - -UBS 22.6 23.0 - - - - - - - -United Overseas Bank 19.9 19.8 - - - - - - - -SummaryMinimum 14.1 13.2 51.6 49.4 394 397 321 339 250 252Maximum 22.6 23.0 84.0 86.6 472 488 409 420 292 322Median 19.5 18.5 70.7 73.5 426 437 360 365 256 263Consensus 18.9 18.3 70.3 71.5 432 442 362 370 263 271History30 days ago 18.8 18.5 67.9 70.8 436 449 368 378 269 28360 days ago 19.1 19.0 70.7 72.8 440 453 369 380 271 28790 days ago 19.0 18.5 72.7 79.8 456 503 383 423 295 340

% of GDP USD bn USD bn USD bn USD bnCurrent Account Trade Balance Exports Imports Int. Reserves



April 2015

Singapore in the Region


Fact Sheet

Singapore1.8%

China60.5%

India12.3%

Korea7.9%

Indonesia5.2%

Other12.3%

Singapore0.2%

China41.1%

India37.8%

Indonesia7.6%

Philippines3.0%

Other10.4%

U.S.A.10.2%

Japan6.2%

EU-2712.6%

Other Asia ex-Japan

10.7%

Malaysia10.6%

China10.3%

Korea6.8%

Other32.5%

U.S.A.5.5% EU-27

9.2%

Other Asia ex-Japan

20.3%

Malaysia12.3%Hong Kong

10.9%

China10.8%

Other31.0%

Other2.7%


Mineral Fuels28.3%

Food23.2%

Other5.4%


Mineral Fuels22.1%

Food30.6%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

-30

0

30

60

90

1202005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• High-level education system • Small domestic market• High-tech and stable economy • Dependence on exports

• Relatively high labor costs• Lack of natural resources.

• Excellent infrastructure and communications

Energy (2012)Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 3,106Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 44.8Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 44.0Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 20.2Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 1,240CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 208

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: Aaa StableS&P: AAA StableFitch Ratings: AAA Stable


Transportation (2013) Airports: 9Roadways (km): 3,425Chief Ports: Singapore

Official name: Republic of SingaporeCapital: Singapore (4.5m)Area (km2): 697Population (million, 2014 est.): 5.5Population density (per km2, 2014): 7,852Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 1.9Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 84.4Illiteracy rate (%, 2010): 4.1Language: Mandarin, English,

Malay and TamilMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT+8

President: Tony Tan Keng YamLast elections: 27 August 2011Next elections: August 2017Monetary Authority, Chairman: Tharman Shanmugaratnam

FOCUSECONOMICS Taiwan


April 2015

Taiwan

REAL SECTOR | Manufacturing PMI rises to 5-month highThe manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), elaborated by HSBC and Markit, rose from 51.7 in January to 52.1 in February. The reading marked a 5-month high. As a result, the PMI index now rests further above the 50-threshold that separates expansion from contraction in the manufacturing sector.

According to HSBC, the result came on the back of increases in output and new orders. In contrast, the rate of job creation eased slightly in February compared to January and input costs fell, largely driven by lower prices for oil and related goods. HSBC added that, “February data signaled that growth momentum in Taiwan’s manufacturing sector continued to rebound from the slowdown seen during Q4 of last year, with both output and new orders rising.

Focus Economics Consensus Forecast panelists see fixed investment rising 2.9% in 2015, which is down 0.8 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2016, the panel expects fixed investment to also increase 2.9%.

For 2015, the government sees the economy growing 3.78%. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project GDP to grow 3.7% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel estimates that economic activity will increase 3.5%.

Taiwan’s economy grew robustly in 2014 and recorded the largest expansion since 2011. The result came largely on the back of increasing private consumption and a strong external sector. However, the economy slowed in Q4 and more recent indicators do not paint a clear picture of the direction the economy is headed. The manufacturing PMI rose to a 5-month high in February and industrial production accelerated in January. In contrast, exports fell in February and hit a two-year low.

Taiwan’s outlook remains fairly stable. While a slowdown in the Chinese economy poses a large downside risk for Taiwan, the drop in oil global prices will support the economy moving forward. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see the economy growing 3.7% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2016, forecasters foresee the economy expanding 3.5%.

Consumer prices fell 0.2% annually in February, which followed January’s 0.9% decline. January’s result had marked the largest decrease in over four years. The low price for oil is expected to keep inflationary pressures contained this year. FocusEconomics panelists expect inflation to average 0.6% in 2015, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel sees inflation averaging 1.5%.

Outlook stable


Angela BouzanisEconomist

Taiwan



Note: HSBC Taiwan Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). A reading above 50 indicates an expansion in business activity while a value below 50points to a contraction.Source: HSBC and Markit.

45

50

55

60




April 2015

REAL SECTOR | Growth in industrial production slows in FebruaryIn February, industrial production increased a working-day adjusted 3.3% over the same month of last year, which overshot market expectations of a 1.2% rise. The reading was below the 7.6% increase tallied in January and marked an over-year low. February’s slowdown was mainly driven by a deceleration in manufacturing as well as a deterioration in electricity and gas supply. In contrast, mining and quarrying accelerated compared to the previous month.

A month-on-month comparison shows that industrial output rose a seasonally-adjusted 2.0% in February, which contrasted the 2.1% decrease tallied in January. Annual average growth in industrial production fell from 7.2% in January to 6.8% in February.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect industrial production to rise 5.2% in 2015, which is down 1.5 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, participants expect industrial output to reach 5.0%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Drop in consumer prices moderates in February Consumer prices in February increased 0.36% over the previous month, which contrasted January’s 1.23% fall. According to the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting & Statistics (DGBAS), the reading mainly reflected increases in the prices for nursery and nursing care, tour fees and taxi fess, partly due to the lunar new year holidays.

Annual consumer prices fell 0.2% in February, which was up from January’s 0.9% decrease. January’s fall had marked the largest drop in consumer prices since November 2009. The decrease was unexpected as market analysts had predicted a gain of 0.2%. As a result, annual average inflation fell from January’s 1.1% to 1.0% in February.

Core consumer prices, which strip out prices for electricity and fresh food, rose 0.84% in February over the previous month, contrasted to January’s 0.03% drop. Annual core inflation rose from January’s 0.6%, which had marked the lowest reading in almost one-year, to 1.8% in February.

For 2015, the government expects inflation to average 0.26%. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation to average 0.6% in 2015, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel sees inflation increasing to 1.5%.

EXTERNAL SECTOR | Exports contract in FebruaryIn February, the trade surplus totaled USD 4.6 billion. The reading was above both the USD 1.6 billion recorded in the same month of last year and market expectations of USD 3.5 billion. In the 12 months up to February, the trade surplus totaled USD 44.5 billion (January: USD 41.5 billion).

Exports reached USD 19.9 billion in February, which represented a 6.7% contraction in year-on-year terms and contrasted January’s 3.4% expansion. Imports recorded USD 15.3 billion, which marked a 22.4% fall over the same month of last year. The contraction was significantly greater than January’s 4.7% fall.

The government expects exports to increase 7.26% in 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect exports to grow 3.5% in 2015 and reach USD 325 billion. For 2016, the panel expects exports to expand 4.9% and reach USD 340 billion.


Note: Year-on-year and annual average var. of industrial production index in %.Source: Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting & Statistics (DGBAS) andFocusEconomics calculations.

-20

-10

0

10

20


Year-on-year

Annual average

%


Note: Monthly and annual variation of consumer price index in %.Source: Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics and FocusEconomics calculations.

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0




%%

Merchandise Trade

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-sum of exports and imports in %.Source: Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting & Statistics (DGBAS) and FocusEconomics calculations.

-6

0

6

12

20

30

40

50



%



April 2015


Annual Data 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Real Sector Population (million) 23.2 23.2 23.3 23.4 23.4 23.5 23.5 23.6 23.7 23.7GDP per capita (USD) 19,380 21,044 21,344 21,880 22,676 22,452 23,332 24,870 26,962 29,273GDP (USD bn) 449 489 498 511 531 527 549 587 638 694GDP (TWD bn) 14,119 14,312 14,687 15,221 16,082 16,636 17,468 18,355 19,292 20,283Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) 8.9 1.4 2.6 3.6 5.7 4.2 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.1Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 10.6 3.8 2.1 2.2 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 3.8 3.1 1.8 2.4 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) 19.3 -1.1 -2.6 5.0 1.7 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.5Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 24.2 4.4 -0.3 0.7 6.4 5.2 5.0 4.3 3.8 3.4Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 5.2 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -3.3 -2.2 -2.4 -1.4 -2.1 -1.5 -1.4 -1.2 -1.0 -0.9Public Debt (% of GDP) 32.1 33.3 34.1 33.9 33.4 36.9 36.8 35.9 35.0 34.2Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M2 in %) 5.5 4.8 3.5 5.8 6.1 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) 1.2 2.0 1.6 0.3 0.6 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 1.0 1.4 1.9 0.8 1.2 0.6 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7Inflation (Core, annual variation in %, aop) 0.6 1.3 1.0 0.7 1.3 - - - - -Inflation (WPI, annual variation in %, aop) 5.5 4.3 -1.2 -2.4 -0.6 - - - - -CB Discount Rate (%, eop) 1.63 1.88 1.88 1.88 1.88 1.93 2.14 2.63 3.13 3.6231-90 Day CP Rate (%, eop) 0.49 0.79 0.76 0.64 0.68 0.87 1.03 1.24 1.37 1.5010-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 1.47 1.27 1.15 1.69 1.60 1.75 1.94 2.24 2.48 2.71Stock Market (variation of TAIEX in %) 9.6 -21.2 8.9 11.9 8.1 - - - - -Exchange Rate (TWD per USD, eop) 29.2 30.3 29.1 29.8 31.6 32.1 32.0 31.0 29.9 28.9Exchange Rate (TWD per USD, aop) 31.5 29.4 29.6 29.7 30.3 31.8 32.0 31.5 30.5 29.4External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 8.6 8.2 9.8 10.8 12.3 13.4 12.2 11.5 11.1 10.7Current Account Balance (USD bn) 38.5 39.9 49.0 55.3 65.3 70.5 66.9 67.3 70.7 74.2Trade Balance (USD bn) 23.4 26.8 30.7 35.5 39.7 50.5 48.9 47.7 47.0 47.0Exports (USD bn) 275 308 301 305 314 325 340 362 387 414Imports (USD bn) 251 281 270 270 274 274 292 315 340 367Exports (annual variation in %) 34.8 12.3 -2.3 1.4 2.7 3.5 4.9 6.4 6.8 7.1Imports (annual variation in %) 44.1 12.0 -3.9 -0.2 1.5 0.0 6.4 7.9 8.0 8.1International Reserves (USD bn) 382 386 403 417 419 436 446 474 497 521International Reserves (months of imports) 18.2 16.4 17.9 18.5 18.3 19.1 18.3 18.1 17.6 17.0External Debt (USD bn) 101.6 122.5 130.8 170.1 178.0 183.2 193.2 202.4 209.9 217.4External Debt (% of GDP) 22.6 25.1 26.3 33.3 33.5 34.7 35.2 34.5 32.9 31.3

Quarterly Data Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 4.3 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6Economic Growth (GDP, s.a. qoq var. in %) 1.1 1.2 - - - - - - - -Real Retail Sales (annual variation in %) 3.2 1.7 - - - - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 1.5 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.6CB Discount Rate (%, eop) 1.88 1.88 1.87 1.87 1.90 1.93 1.98 2.03 2.06 2.1431-90 Day CP Rate (%, eop) 0.64 0.68 0.79 0.81 0.86 0.87 0.97 1.01 1.03 1.0310-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 1.72 1.60 1.57 1.61 1.67 1.75 1.86 1.90 1.90 1.94Exchange Rate (TWD per USD, eop) 30.4 31.6 31.6 31.7 31.9 32.1 32.1 32.0 32.0 32.0Trade Balance (USD bn) 10.3 13.2 9.8 12.6 12.8 15.4 9.0 11.0 11.0 15.0Exports (USD bn) 81.2 79.1 75.3 83.6 85.1 83.5 77.5 86.5 88.0 88.0Imports (USD bn) 71.0 65.9 65.5 71.0 72.2 68.1 68.5 75.5 77.0 73.0Exports (annual variation in %) 6.6 0.4 2.7 4.5 4.7 5.5 2.9 3.4 3.5 5.4Imports (annual variation in %) 7.5 -3.3 -2.0 0.9 1.8 3.3 4.6 6.4 6.6 7.2

Monthly Data May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 5.8 8.6 6.3 6.9 9.9 9.2 6.8 7.8 7.6 3.3Real Retail Sales (annual variation in %) 2.6 3.6 3.4 2.6 3.6 1.7 0.2 3.2 -4.2 10.7Unemployment (% of active population) 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.7Consumer Confidence (100-point threshold) 85.6 87.6 88.2 83.1 83.2 83.0 83.4 86.4 88.2 89.4Business Confidence (100-point threshold) 78.7 81.8 85.3 77.4 77.8 77.9 78.5 82.9 85.1 85.6HSBC Manufacturing PMI (50-threshold) 52.4 54.0 55.8 56.1 53.3 52.0 51.4 50.0 51.7 52.1Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.15 0.51 -0.03 0.43 -0.05 0.07 -0.91 -0.35 -1.23 0.36Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 1.6 1.6 1.8 2.1 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.6 -0.9 -0.2Exchange Rate (TWD per USD, eop) 30.0 29.9 30.1 29.9 30.4 30.4 31.0 31.6 31.7 31.4Trade Balance (USD bn) 5.3 1.9 2.6 4.1 3.5 4.6 4.2 4.4 4.8 4.6Exports (annual variation in %) 1.4 1.2 5.7 9.5 4.6 0.6 3.5 -2.9 3.4 -6.7Imports (annual variation in %) -2.3 7.4 9.3 13.9 -0.1 -1.5 5.0 -12.3 -4.7 -22.4



April 2015


1 | Real GDP | 2000 - 2019 | var. in %








Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) and National Statistics. See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: DGBAS.2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.

Source: DGBAS.3 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 Private consumption, annual variation in %. Source: DGBAS.6 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %. Source: DGBAS.7 Private consumption, change in 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last


last 18 months.9 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: National Statistics.10 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: National Statistics.11 Balance of central and local government as % of GDP. Source: National

Statistics.12 Industrial production, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the


months.14 Balance of central and local government as % of GDP, evolution of

2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016ANZ 3.7 3.8BofA Merrill Lynch 3.5 3.7Capital Economics 4.5 4.0Chung-Hua Institute 3.5 -Citigroup Global Mkts 3.6 3.8Credit Agricole 3.3 3.2Credit Suisse 3.5 3.7Daiwa 3.2 3.0DBS Bank 3.7 3.5Deutsche Bank 3.9 3.5EIU 4.1 3.1Frontier Strategy Group 3.6 3.5Goldman Sachs 3.8 3.7HSBC 3.5 3.3ING 3.0 3.0JPMorgan 4.1 3.4Morgan Stanley 3.7 4.0Nomura 3.5 3.8Oxford Economics 3.8 3.6Standard Chartered 4.3 4.0UBS 3.3 2.7United Overseas Bank 3.2 -Yuanta Investment Cons. 3.9 -SummaryMinimum 3.0 2.7Maximum 4.5 4.0Median 3.6 3.5Consensus 3.7 3.5History30 days ago 3.7 3.560 days ago 3.6 3.490 days ago 3.5 3.5Additional ForecastsGovernment (Feb. 2015) 3.78 -IMF (Oct. 2014) 3.8 4.2ADB (Dec. 2014) 3.6 3.6

-5

0

5

10

15

2000 2005 2010 2015

TaiwanAsia (ex Japan)World

0

2

4

6

8

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

TaiwanAsia (ex Japan)World

2

3

4

5



2

3

4

5



2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0


2015 2016

-4

0

4

8

12

2000 2005 2010 2015

TaiwanAsia (ex Japan)

-20

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015


2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0


2015 2016



April 2015


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016ANZ - - - - - - - - - -BofA Merrill Lynch 2.2 2.5 3.9 1.9 - - 4.1 4.2 -1.3 -1.3Capital Economics - - 4.0 4.0 - - - - - -Chung-Hua Institute 2.8 - 3.3 - - - 3.9 - - -Citigroup Global Mkts 3.2 3.4 - - - - 3.8 3.7 -1.6 -1.3Credit Agricole - - - - - - - - - -Credit Suisse 2.3 2.7 2.8 3.6 - - 4.1 4.1 - -Daiwa - - - - - - - - -1.5 -1.4DBS Bank 3.0 2.7 1.7 1.6 - - 3.8 3.8 - -Deutsche Bank 2.9 2.7 4.2 3.3 6.5 5.5 3.8 3.9 -1.7 -1.4EIU 3.1 2.5 2.0 1.8 4.4 3.5 3.8 3.7 -1.1 -0.9Frontier Strategy Group 2.8 2.7 - - - - 4.0 4.0 - -Goldman Sachs - - - - - - - - - -HSBC 3.5 3.5 1.9 4.2 2.1 6.4 3.6 3.6 - -ING - - - - - - - - - -JPMorgan - - - - - - - - -1.5 -Morgan Stanley - - - - - - - - -1.8 -1.8Nomura 2.5 3.0 2.8 3.0 - - 4.0 4.0 -2.0 -2.0Oxford Economics 3.5 3.2 3.9 3.7 5.0 4.7 3.9 3.7 -1.6 -1.4Standard Chartered - - - - - - - - - -UBS 3.0 2.3 1.4 1.5 - - - - -1.0 -0.8United Overseas Bank - - - - - - 3.9 - -1.1 -Yuanta Investment Cons. 2.7 - - - 8.2 - 3.8 - - -SummaryMinimum 2.2 2.3 1.4 1.5 2.1 3.5 3.6 3.6 -2.0 -2.0Maximum 3.5 3.5 4.2 4.2 8.2 6.4 4.1 4.2 -1.0 -0.8Median 2.9 2.7 2.8 3.2 5.0 5.1 3.9 3.9 -1.5 -1.4Consensus 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.9 5.2 5.0 3.9 3.9 -1.5 -1.4History30 days ago 2.9 2.9 3.7 3.0 6.7 5.2 3.9 4.0 -1.5 -1.460 days ago 2.7 2.7 3.6 3.0 6.4 5.1 4.0 4.0 -1.4 -1.390 days ago 2.6 2.6 3.3 3.1 6.1 5.0 3.9 4.0 -1.6 -1.5

Consumptionvariation in %

Investmentvariation in %

Fiscal Balance% of GDP

Industryvariation in %








3

4

5

6

7


2015 2016

-10

0

10

20

30

2000 2005 2010 2015


3.7

3.8

3.9

4.0

4.1


2015 2016

2

3

4

5

6

2000 2005 2010 2015


-2.0

-1.8

-1.6

-1.4

-1.2

-1.0


2015 2016

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

2000 2005 2010 2015




April 2015



Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) and the Central Bank of the Republic of China. See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 15 Inflation, annual average variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %.

Source: DGBAS.16 Inflation, annual variation of quarterly average consumer price index

(CPI) in %. Source: DGBAS.17 Inflation, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.18 Inflation, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.19 Core and wholesale price indices, annual variation in % (aop). 2000-

2014. Source: DGBAS.20 Money, annual variation of M2 in %. 2000-2014. Source: Central Bank.21 Daily MSCI index in USD. From Jan. 2010 until end of previous week.

Source: MSCI Barra.22 Daily index levels, TAIEX. Jan. 2010 until end of previous week. Source:

Taiwan Stock Exchange.

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016ANZ 1.0 2.2BofA Merrill Lynch 0.3 1.2Capital Economics 1.0 1.5Chung-Hua Institute 0.9 -Citigroup Global Mkts 0.2 2.0Credit Agricole 1.8 2.2Credit Suisse 0.2 1.1Daiwa 0.8 1.1DBS Bank 0.3 0.9Deutsche Bank -0.2 2.3EIU 0.4 1.2Frontier Strategy Group 1.2 1.2Goldman Sachs 1.0 1.3HSBC -0.2 1.5ING 0.0 0.5JPMorgan - -Morgan Stanley 1.9 2.3Nomura -0.3 2.0Oxford Economics 0.2 1.2Standard Chartered 0.8 1.4UBS -0.3 1.2United Overseas Bank - -Yuanta Investment Cons. 1.0 -SummaryMinimum -0.3 0.5Maximum 1.9 2.3Median 0.4 1.3Consensus 0.6 1.5History30 days ago 0.8 1.460 days ago 1.0 1.490 days ago 1.4 1.6Additional ForecastsGovernment (Feb. 2015) 0.26 -IMF (Oct. 2014) 2.0 2.0ADB (Dec. 2014) 1.4 1.5

15 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | in %


19 | Core and Wholesale Prices | % var.


16 | Inflation | Q1 12-Q4 16 | in %



22 | Stock Market | TAIEX

-10

-5

0

5

10

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Core PPI

200

250

300

350


-1

0

1

2

3



-2

0

2

4

6

8

2000 2005 2010 2015


0

2

4

6

8

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

6,500

7,500

8,500

9,500

10,500


0

1

2

3



0

2

4

6

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16




April 2015



Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary and external sector data are from the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS), the Central Bank of the Republic of China and Thomson Reuters. See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 23 Interest rate, Central Bank Discount Rate in % (eop). Source: Central

Bank.24 Quarterly interest rate, Central Bank Discount Rate in % (eop). Source:

Central Bank.25 Interest rate, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.26 Interest rate, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.27 Exchange rate, TWD per USD (eop). Source: Thomson Reuters.28 Quarterly exchange rate, TWD per USD (eop). Source: Thomson

Reuters.29 Exchange rate, evolution of 2015 forecast during the last 18 months.30 Exchange rate, evolution of 2016 forecast during the last 18 months.31 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: Central Bank.32 Trade balance, imports and exports, in USD bn. Source: DGBAS.33 International reserves, months of imports. Source: Central Bank.34 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016

forecasts during the last 18 months.35 Exports, annual variation in %. Source: DGBAS.36 External debt as % GDP. Source: Central Bank.

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016ANZ 2.13 2.63 32.5 33.0BofA Merrill Lynch 1.88 2.13 33.0 33.0Capital Economics 1.88 2.13 - -Chung-Hua Institute - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts 1.88 2.38 32.5 32.1Credit Agricole 2.13 2.63 31.6 31.4Credit Suisse 1.88 2.00 32.3 32.3Daiwa 2.13 2.25 32.5 32.0DBS Bank 1.88 - 32.2 -Deutsche Bank 1.88 - 32.5 32.0EIU - - 31.1 30.7Frontier Strategy Group - - - -Goldman Sachs 1.88 2.13 33.0 33.5HSBC 1.63 1.63 32.6 33.0ING 1.88 1.88 32.5 32.5JPMorgan 1.88 - 32.4 -Morgan Stanley 1.88 2.13 31.2 30.6Nomura 1.88 2.13 31.5 31.1Oxford Economics - - 30.9 30.2Standard Chartered 2.13 - 32.1 -UBS 1.88 1.88 31.8 33.0United Overseas Bank 1.88 - 32.4 -Yuanta Investment Cons. 2.13 - - -SummaryMinimum 1.63 1.63 30.9 30.2Maximum 2.13 2.63 33.0 33.5Median 1.88 2.13 32.4 32.1Consensus 1.93 2.14 32.1 32.0History30 days ago 1.93 2.16 32.1 32.160 days ago 1.95 2.14 31.7 31.890 days ago 2.01 2.20 31.3 30.9

Interest Rate Exchange Rate% TWD per USD

23 | Interest Rate | 2000 - 2019 | in %


27 | Exchange Rate | TWD per USD

29 | TWD per USD 2015 | evol. of fcst



28 | Exchange Rate | TWD per USD

30 | TWD per USD 2016 | evol. of fcst

26

28

30

32

34



28

30

32

34



1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0



29

30

31

32

33

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.3

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

28

30

32

34

36

2000 2005 2010 2015

1

2

3

4

5

2000 2005 2010 2015

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0





April 2015








Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016ANZ - - - - - - - - - -BofA Merrill Lynch 13.9 13.7 48.7 46.8 337 348 288 302 425 429Capital Economics - - - - - - - - - -Chung-Hua Institute - - 38.2 - 332 - 294 - - -Citigroup Global Mkts 11.5 8.0 46.4 45.5 331 359 284 313 440 460Credit Agricole 12.8 12.2 - - - - - - - -Credit Suisse 14.8 14.1 - - - - - - 448 464Daiwa 12.0 11.2 44.8 47.9 325 339 280 291 - -DBS Bank 14.1 12.6 51.0 45.0 314 332 263 287 423 428Deutsche Bank 15.9 13.3 67.2 57.6 329 342 261 284 437 445EIU 12.9 12.1 47.8 43.8 317 334 270 290 437 455Frontier Strategy Group - - - - - - - - - -Goldman Sachs 15.7 13.9 - - - - - - - -HSBC 10.5 9.2 - - - - - - 417 409ING - - - - - - - - - -JPMorgan 14.1 - 50.3 - 333 - 282 - 442 -Morgan Stanley - - - - - - - - - -Nomura 12.0 9.9 - - - - - - - -Oxford Economics 15.1 14.1 56.4 53.7 320 352 263 299 453 475Standard Chartered - - - - - - - - - -UBS 14.5 14.1 54.2 51.2 309 318 255 267 - -United Overseas Bank 10.6 - - - - - - - - -Yuanta Investment Cons. - - - - - - - - - -SummaryMinimum 10.5 8.0 38.2 43.8 309 318 255 267 417 409Maximum 15.9 14.1 67.2 57.6 337 359 294 313 453 475Median 13.9 12.6 49.5 47.3 327 340 275 290 437 450Consensus 13.4 12.2 50.5 48.9 325 340 274 292 436 446History30 days ago 12.4 11.1 46.4 48.6 328 341 282 292 438 44960 days ago 11.8 11.0 42.7 43.7 331 345 289 302 440 45290 days ago 11.5 10.7 40.8 43.5 334 353 294 308 438 448



Exports Imports

8

10

12

14


2015 2016

0

5

10

15

2000 2005 2010 2015


-40

-20

0

20

40

2000 2005 2010 2015


0

100

200

300

400

500

2000 2005 2010 2015


10

20

30

40

2000 2005 2010 2015

Taiwan

Asia (ex Japan)

5

10

15

20

25

2000 2005 2010 2015




April 2015

Taiwan in the Region


Fact Sheet

Taiwan3.1%

China60.6%

India12.3%

Korea8.0%

Indonesia5.0%

Other11.0%

Taiwan0.7%

China41.1%

India37.8%

Indonesia7.6%

Philippines3.0%

Other9.8%

Japan16.0%

EU-2711.1%

Other Asia ex-Japan

16.2%China15.8%

Korea5.8%

LatAm12.6%

Other22.5%

Japan6.3%

EU-279.1%

Other Asia ex-Japan

18.7%

China26.8%

Hong Kong12.9%

Singapore6.4%

LatAm13.6%

Other6.3%

Capital Goods13.8%

Raw Materials

77.8%

Consumer Goods8.5%

Other-0.5

Machinery & Electrical Equipment

29.5%

Basic Metals & Articles 6.0%

Plastics & Rubber5.1%

Precision Instrument

5.1%

Chemicals4.3%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

0

20

40

60

80

1002005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• Well educated labor force • Limited natural resources• Strong legal system• Open market economy

.

• Lack of representation in international organizations

• Persistent geopolitical tension in the region

Energy (2012)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 499Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 4,838Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 234Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 224Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 22Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 925CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 307

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: Aa3 StableS&P: AA- StableFitch Ratings: A+ Stable


Transportation (2013) Airports: 37Railways (km): 1,580Roadways (km): 41,475Chief Ports: Kaohsiung, Chilung, Hualian

Official name: Taiwan / Republic of China

Capital: Taipei (2.7 m)Other cities: New Taipei (3.9 m)

Kaohsiung (2.7 m)Taichung (2.7 m)

Area (km2): 35,980Population (million, 2014 est.): 23.4Population density (per km2, 2014): 651Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 0.25Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 79.8Illiteracy rate (%, 2011): 3.9Language: Mandarin Chinese and

TaiwaneseMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT+8

President: Ma Ying-jeouLast elections: 14 January 2012Next elections: 2016Central Bank President: Perng Fai-nan

FOCUSECONOMICS Thailand


April 2015

Thailand

REAL SECTOR | Manufacturing contracts more in JanuaryIn January, manufacturing production fell 1.3% over the same month last year, which followed the 0.1% decrease seen in December. January’s reading marked the 21st consecutive drop in manufacturing output. The decline was mainly driven by falling output in the manufacturing of electronics as well as of coke, and refined petroleum products.

On a monthly basis, manufacturing output rose 0.4% in seasonally-adjusted terms, which contrasted the 0.6% drop recorded in December. In addition, annual average growth in industrial production rose from minus 4.5% in December to minus 4.1% in January, which marked the highest rate in over a year.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts panelists expect manufacturing to expand 4.2% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. For 2016, the panel expects manufacturing to increase 5.0%.

The Central Bank expects the economy to expand 3.8% in 2015 and 3.9% in 2016. FocusEconomics panelists expect the economy to grow 3.8% in 2015,

While the Thai economy posted a notable acceleration in the fourth quarter of last year, 2014 GDP growth came in at a three-year low. Q1 2015 data show that the economic recovery is not moving as quickly as expected. At the outset of the year, there were few signs of a pickup in domestic demand. In January, monthly data indicated that both private investment and private consumption remained sluggish. Exports were also weak in January, suggesting that external demand is still lackluster. Recently, Thailand’s Supreme Court announced that it would proceed in prosecuting former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra over her rice subsidy scheme. If found guilty, the former premier could face up to ten years in prison, which may well bring an end to her family’s political dominance.

Although uncertainties surrounding the political landscape could pose a risk to growth prospects, FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists maintained their GDP growth forecast unchanged at the previous month’s 3.8%. For 2016, the panel projects that the economy will grow 4.0%.

Consumer prices fell 0.5% over the same month last year in February (January: -0.4% year-on-year) mainly due to declining energy prices. In an effort to combat risks of deflation, the Central Bank made a surprise 25-basis-point cut to the one-day repurchase rate on 11 March, reducing it from 2.00% to 1.75%. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation to average 0.7% in 2015, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2016, the panel projects average inflation of 2.3%.

Outlook stable


Dirina Mançellari Economist


Thailand

Manufacturing Production | variation in %

Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average variation of manufacturing production index in %.Source: Office of Industrial Economics (OIE) and FocusEconomics calculations.

-20

-10

0

10

20


Year-on-year

Annual average

%



April 2015

which is unchanged over last month’s estimate. The panel projects that the economy will grow 4.0% in 2016.

MONETARY SECTOR | Consumer prices in February record largest drop in over five yearsIn February, consumer prices rose 0.12% over the previous month, which contrasted the 0.59% decrease seen in January and marked the fastest increase in nine months. According to the Ministry of Commerce, February’s increase mainly resulted from lower prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages.

Consumer prices fell 0.5% over the same month last year, which followed January’s 0.4% drop and marked the fastest decrease since September 2009. The result was below the 0.3% drop the market had expected. As a consequence, annual inflation is well below the Bank’s tolerance margin of plus/minus 1.5 percentage points around its target of 2.5%. Core consumer prices, which exclude prices for energy and fresh food, rose a weak 0.09% over the previous month (January:+0.16% month-on-month). Annual core inflation inched down from 1.6% in January to 1.5% in February and now stands at its lowest level since March 2014.

The Bank of Thailand projects average inflation of 0.2% in 2015 and 2.2% in 2016. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation to average 0.7% in 2015, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s Consensus. For 2016, panelists see average inflation at 2.3%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Bank of Thailand cuts one-day repurchase rate in a surprise moveAt its 11 March monetary policy meeting, the Bank of Thailand (BoT) decided to cut the one-day repurchase rate by 25 basis points from 2.00% to 1.75%. The move caught markets by surprise as they expected the Bank to keep the repo rate on hold at 2.00% where is had been since April of last year. Four of the seven members of the committee voted in favor of cutting the rate. As a result, the one-day repurchase rate now sits at an over-four-year low. The next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for 28 April.

According to the Bank, Thailand’s economy recovered slowly during the final quarter of 2014 and the first months of 2015. Confidence in the private sector remained weak, which led to growth rates in private consumption and investment being softer than expected. The Bank added that, looking forward, “the economy is projected to recover at a slower pace than formerly assessed. […] Meanwhile, tourism is projected to recover steadily, partially offsetting the weaker domestic demand.”

Against a backdrop of lower global oil prices, consumer prices tallied decreases in annual terms at the outset of the year. Regarding inflation projections in the periods ahead, the BoT commented that, “inflationary pressure is forecasted to remain at a lower level, close to the committee’s assessment at the last meeting.” The slower than expected economic recovery, which coupled with low inflation, drove the Bank’s decision to cut the one-day repurchase rate.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the one-day repurchase rate to end 2015 at 1.82%. In 2016, the panel expects the monetary policy rate to end the year at 2.23%.


Note: Annual and monthly variation of consumer price index in %.Source: Ministry of Commerce and FocusEconomics calculations.

-1.0

0.5

2.0

3.5

5.0

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0




%%

One-Day Repurchase Rate | in %

Note: One-Day repurchase rate, in%.Source: Bank of Thailand.

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0


%



April 2015

EXTERNAL SECTOR | Trade balance records biggest deficit in four monthsIn January, the trade balance recorded a USD 0.5 billion deficit, which was an improvement over the USD 2.6 billion shortfall recorded in the same month last year, but contrasted December’s USD 1.6 billion surplus. The figure marked the biggest deficit in four months. The 12-month moving sum of trade recorded a USD 1.7 billion surplus in January, which contrasted the USD 400 million seen in the previous month and marked the highest reading since September 2011.

Exports in January fell 3.5% over the same month last year, which contrasted the 1.9% increase observed in the previous month. In addition, imports fell 13.3% in January, which was a deterioration over the 8.7% decrease seen in December.

In 2015, FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect exports to increase 4.1% (USD 234.4 billion). For 2016, panelists expect export growth to accelerate to 5.9% (USD 248.3 billion).

Merchandise Trade

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the12-month sum of exports and imports in %.Source: Bank of Thailand (BoT) and FocusEconomics calculations.

-25

-10

5

20

35

-30

-20

-10

0

10

Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15


%



April 2015


Annual Data 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Real Sector Population (million) 67.3 67.6 67.9 68.2 68.6 68.9 69.2 69.5 69.7 70.0GDP per capita (USD) 4,730 5,134 5,390 5,695 5,458 5,533 5,753 6,081 6,538 7,056GDP (USD bn) 318 347 366 389 374 381 398 422 456 494GDP (THB bn) 10,112 10,544 11,377 11,894 12,136 12,760 13,572 14,460 15,424 16,471Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) 11.7 4.3 7.9 4.5 2.0 4.5 6.4 6.5 6.7 6.8Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. in %) 7.8 0.1 6.5 2.9 0.7 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3Private Consumption (ann. var. in %) 4.8 1.3 6.7 0.3 0.3 2.7 3.2 3.5 3.7 3.9Fixed Investment (ann. variation in %) 9.4 3.3 13.2 -2.0 -2.8 5.1 5.7 5.2 4.9 4.6Manufacturing (annual variation in %) 14.2 -8.5 2.2 -3.2 -4.6 4.2 5.0 5.2 5.2 5.3Unemployment (% of active population, eop) 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -1.5 -1.6 -4.4 -2.4 -2.2 -2.3 -2.5 -2.2 -2.1 -2.0Public Debt (% of GDP) 42.3 40.8 43.6 45.8 46.3 48.0 48.6 49.4 49.8 50.3Monetary and Financial Sector Money (ann. var. of M1 in %) 10.9 8.6 13.0 3.9 1.2 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) 3.1 3.5 3.6 1.7 0.6 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 3.3 3.8 3.0 2.2 1.9 0.7 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5Inflation (Core, annual average variation in %) 0.9 2.4 2.1 1.0 1.6 - - - - -Inflation (PPI, annual var. in %, aop) 9.4 5.5 1.0 0.3 0.1 - - - - -1-Day Repurchase Rate (%, eop) 2.00 3.25 2.75 2.25 2.00 1.82 2.23 2.67 2.89 3.113-Month BIBOR (%, eop) 2.15 3.26 2.87 2.40 2.18 2.02 2.89 3.76 4.27 4.7710-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 3.74 3.28 3.55 4.07 2.87 2.87 3.44 4.16 4.53 4.90Stock Market (SET variation in %) 59.1 38.4 12.4 36.0 -13.6 - - - - -Exchange Rate (THB per USD, eop) 30.1 31.6 30.6 32.8 32.9 33.6 34.2 33.9 33.4 32.9Exchange Rate (THB per USD, aop) 31.7 30.4 31.0 30.7 32.4 33.3 33.9 34.0 33.6 33.1External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 3.1 2.6 -0.4 -0.6 3.8 3.2 2.4 1.9 1.3 0.8Current Account Balance (USD bn) 10.0 8.9 -1.5 -2.5 14.2 12.4 9.6 8.0 6.1 3.9Trade Balance (USD bn) 29.5 17.0 6.0 6.8 24.6 21.9 19.6 19.6 20.8 23.3Exports (USD bn) 190.7 219.8 225.7 226.2 225.1 234.4 248.3 263.6 280.3 298.2Imports (USD bn) 161.2 202.7 219.7 219.4 200.5 212.4 228.6 244.0 259.5 274.9Exports (annual variation in %) 26.4 15.2 2.7 0.2 -0.5 4.1 5.9 6.2 6.3 6.4Imports (annual variation in %) 36.4 25.8 8.4 -0.2 -8.6 6.0 7.6 6.7 6.3 6.0International Reserves (USD bn) 172.1 175.1 181.6 167.3 157.1 160.2 165.2 170.9 177.3 183.6International Reserves (months of imports) 12.8 10.4 9.9 9.2 9.4 9.0 8.7 8.4 8.2 8.0External Debt (USD bn) 100.6 104.3 130.8 141.9 143.9 150.4 154.9 156.1 156.7 157.3External Debt (% of GDP) 31.6 30.1 35.7 36.5 38.5 39.5 38.9 37.0 34.4 31.9 Quarterly Data Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. in %) 0.6 2.3 3.8 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.6 4.2 4.9Economic Growth (GDP, s.a. qoq var. in %) 1.2 1.7 - - - - - - - -Nominal Retail Sales (annual var. in %) -5.0 -2.3 - - - - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 2.0 1.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.31-Day Repurchase Rate (%, eop) 2.00 2.00 1.75 1.75 1.81 1.82 1.89 1.99 2.15 2.23Exchange Rate (THB per USD, eop) 32.3 32.9 33.1 33.3 33.5 33.6 33.7 34.0 34.0 34.2Trade Balance (USD bn) 4.8 7.6 5.5 5.5 6.5 6.5 5.0 6.0 8.0 7.0Exports (USD bn) 57.4 56.5 56.5 57.7 59.6 58.0 60.0 62.0 64.0 62.0Imports (USD bn) 52.6 48.9 51.0 52.2 53.1 51.5 55.0 56.0 56.0 55.0Exports (annual variation in %) -1.6 0.7 1.9 3.6 3.9 2.7 6.2 7.5 7.4 6.9Imports (annual variation in %) -0.6 -6.4 3.6 4.8 1.1 5.3 7.8 7.3 5.4 6.8 Monthly Data May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15Manufacturing (annual variation in %) -4.0 -6.3 -5.3 -2.6 -3.9 -3.0 -3.7 -0.1 -1.3 -Nominal Retail Sales (annual var. in %) -9.1 -7.0 -5.5 -8.3 -1.1 -2.0 -5.1 0.1 - -Consumer Confidence (100-point threshold) 70.7 75.1 78.2 80.1 79.2 80.1 79.4 81.1 80.4 79.1Business Confidence (50-point threshold) 48.6 48.0 49.6 49.1 48.9 48.7 48.6 49.0 49.0 -Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.40 -0.10 -0.08 -0.08 -0.17 -0.10 -0.12 -0.50 -0.59 0.12Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.3 0.6 -0.4 -0.5Exchange Rate (THB per USD, eop) 32.7 32.4 31.9 31.9 32.3 32.5 32.8 32.9 32.7 32.3Trade Balance (USD bn) -0.8 1.7 -1.1 1.2 -1.8 0.0 -0.1 1.6 -0.5 -Exports (annual variation in %) -2.1 3.2 -0.9 -7.4 3.2 4.0 -1.0 1.9 -3.5 -Imports (annual variation in %) -9.3 -14.0 -2.9 -14.2 14.4 -4.9 -3.5 -8.7 -13.3 -



April 2015

0%

20%

40%

60%

< 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 > 5.5


1 | Real GDP | 2000 - 2019 | var. in %




Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.1 GDP, real annual variation in %. 2 Quarterly GDP (seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.3 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016ANZ 3.9 4.3BofA ML-Phatra Sec. 3.7 4.3Capital Economics 3.5 3.5CIMB Thai Bank 3.3 -Citigroup Global Mkts 3.5 4.0Credit Agricole 4.0 4.0Credit Suisse 3.7 3.8Daiwa 4.5 4.5DBS Bank 3.6 4.3Deutsche Bank 3.5 3.0EIU 4.2 4.3Frontier Strategy Group 3.2 4.0Goldman Sachs 3.4 3.9HSBC 3.6 3.1ING 3.0 3.5JPMorgan 4.2 3.8Kasikorn Research 4.0 -Ktzmico 4.0 -Maybank Investment Bank 4.0 -Morgan Stanley 3.6 4.0Nomura 3.3 3.5OCBC Bank 4.0 -Oxford Economics 3.9 3.7Standard Chartered 5.1 5.9TISCO Securities 4.5 3.8UBS 3.9 4.1United Overseas Bank 4.0 5.1SummaryMinimum 3.0 3.0Maximum 5.1 5.9Median 3.9 4.0Consensus 3.8 4.0History30 days ago 3.8 4.060 days ago 3.9 4.190 days ago 4.0 4.1Additional ForecastsCentral Bank (Mar. 2015) 3.8 3.9IMF (Oct. 2014) 4.6 4.4ADB (Dec. 2014) 4.0 -

-5

0

5

10

15

2000 2005 2010 2015

ThailandAsia (ex Japan)World

-10

0

10

20

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

ThailandAsia (ex Japan)World

2

3

4

5

6

7



2

3

4

5

6

7






April 2015



5

6

7

8


2015 2016


-15

0

15

30

2000 2005 2010 2015

ThailandAsia (ex Japan)


2

3

4

5


2015 2016


-5

0

5

10

15

2000 2005 2010 2015


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016ANZ - - - -BofA ML-Phatra Sec. 3.0 3.7 6.5 8.0Capital Economics 2.0 1.5 8.0 8.0CIMB Thai Bank 2.4 - 4.9 -Citigroup Global Mkts 3.0 2.6 - -Credit Agricole - - - -Credit Suisse 2.6 3.0 4.9 7.3Daiwa - - - -DBS Bank 3.4 4.1 5.0 5.2Deutsche Bank 2.3 2.3 2.0 2.0EIU 2.8 3.6 3.7 5.1Frontier Strategy Group 2.7 3.5 - -Goldman Sachs - - - -HSBC 2.1 3.0 3.6 4.4ING - - - -JPMorgan 1.6 - 2.0 -Kasikorn Research 3.1 - 6.0 -Ktzmico 4.3 - 8.1 -Maybank Investment Bank - - - -Morgan Stanley 2.5 3.4 3.4 4.9Nomura 1.0 1.8 7.3 5.6OCBC Bank 2.4 - 3.5 -Oxford Economics 2.6 3.9 4.1 3.3Standard Chartered - - - -TISCO Securities 3.4 3.8 9.3 8.4UBS 3.2 3.9 5.3 6.0United Overseas Bank - - - -SummaryMinimum 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.0Maximum 4.3 4.1 9.3 8.4Median 2.6 3.5 4.9 5.4Consensus 2.7 3.2 5.1 5.7History30 days ago 2.8 3.1 5.2 5.660 days ago 2.9 3.0 5.3 5.490 days ago 3.0 3.1 5.6 5.5


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.6 Private consumption, annual variation in %. 7 Private consumption, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.9 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.




April 2015


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016ANZ - - - - - -BofA ML-Phatra Sec. 4.5 5.5 - - -2.6 -3.1Capital Economics - - - - -3.0 -3.0CIMB Thai Bank - - - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts - - 0.8 0.7 -2.6 -2.5Credit Agricole - - - - - -Credit Suisse - - - - -2.1 -3.0Daiwa - - - - -2.3 -2.2DBS Bank - - 0.8 0.7 - -Deutsche Bank 5.0 5.0 1.0 1.1 -2.5 -2.0EIU 5.5 5.7 1.5 1.5 -1.5 -1.3Frontier Strategy Group - - 0.9 0.9 - -Goldman Sachs - - - - - -HSBC 2.3 3.4 0.8 0.8 - -ING - - - - - -JPMorgan - - - - -2.7 -Kasikorn Research 3.4 - 0.6 - -2.0 -Ktzmico - - - - - -Maybank Investment Bank - - 0.7 - -2.3 -Morgan Stanley - - - - -2.0 -2.5Nomura - - 1.3 1.5 -1.9 -1.9OCBC Bank - - - - - -Oxford Economics 4.5 6.2 1.1 1.2 -1.7 -2.0Standard Chartered - - 1.0 - -2.5 -TISCO Securities 3.4 - - - - -UBS 4.8 4.0 1.0 1.2 -2.0 -3.0United Overseas Bank - - 0.9 0.9 -3.0 -3.0SummaryMinimum 2.3 3.4 0.6 0.7 -3.0 -3.1Maximum 5.5 6.2 1.5 1.5 -1.5 -1.3Median 4.5 5.3 0.9 1.0 -2.3 -2.5Consensus 4.2 5.0 1.0 1.0 -2.3 -2.5History30 days ago 4.2 4.9 0.9 1.0 -2.3 -2.360 days ago 4.2 5.2 0.9 1.0 -2.3 -2.290 days ago 4.1 5.7 0.9 1.1 -2.5 -2.3

Manufacturing Unemployment Fiscal Balance variation in % % of active pop. % of GDP

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the the Office of Industrial Economics (OIE) and the Bank of Thailand (BoT). See below for details. Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.10 Manufacturing, annual variation in %. Source: OIE.11 Manufacturing, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.12 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: BoT.13 Fiscal balance as % of GDP. Source: BoT.

Manufacturing, Unemployment and Fiscal Balance


-6

-4

-2

0

2

2000 2005 2010 2015

Thailand

Asia (ex Japan)


0

2

4

6

2000 2005 2010 2015


11 | Manufacturing | evol. of forecasts

4

5

6

7

8


2015 2016


-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2000 2005 2010 2015




April 2015

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

< -0.9 -0.4 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.6 2.1 2.6 > 2.6


14 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | in %


15 | Inflation | Q1 12-Q4 16 | in %


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the Bureau of Trade and Economics (BTE). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.14 Inflation, annual average variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %.15 Inflation, annual variation of quarterly average consumer price index (CPI) in %16 Inflation, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.17 Inflation, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.18 Inflation, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016ANZ 1.0 2.3BofA ML-Phatra Sec. 0.7 2.3Capital Economics 0.0 2.5CIMB Thai Bank - -Citigroup Global Mkts 1.0 2.1Credit Agricole - -Credit Suisse 0.3 2.3Daiwa - -DBS Bank 0.8 2.8Deutsche Bank 0.3 2.2EIU 1.2 3.4Frontier Strategy Group 1.6 2.0Goldman Sachs 1.3 2.0HSBC 0.0 2.6ING 0.0 1.0JPMorgan 0.3 -Kasikorn Research 0.8 -Ktzmico 1.4 -Maybank Investment Bank - -Morgan Stanley 0.4 2.6Nomura 0.3 1.2OCBC Bank 1.0 -Oxford Economics 0.4 3.4Standard Chartered 0.5 2.5TISCO Securities 0.2 2.4UBS 0.6 2.4United Overseas Bank 1.5 2.5SummaryMinimum 0.0 1.0Maximum 1.6 3.4Median 0.6 2.4Consensus 0.7 2.3History30 days ago 1.1 2.460 days ago 1.5 2.490 days ago 2.1 2.5Additional ForecastsCentral Bank (Mar. 2015) 0.2 2.2IMF (Oct. 2014) 2.0 2.0ADB (Dec. 2014) 2.3 -



-2

0

2

4

6



-3

0

3

6

9

2000 2005 2010 2015


0

2

4

6



0.0

1.5

3.0

4.5

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16




April 2015

0%

20%

40%

60%

< 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 > 4.00


19 | Interest Rate | 2000 - 2019 | in %




Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the Bank of Thailand (BoT). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.19 Interest rate, 1-day repurchase rate in % (eop).20 Quarterly interest rate, 1-day repurchase rate in % (eop).21 Interest rate, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.22 Interest rate, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.23 Interest rate, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016ANZ 1.75 2.25BofA ML-Phatra Sec. 1.75 2.00Capital Economics 1.75 2.50CIMB Thai Bank 1.50 -Citigroup Global Mkts 2.00 2.50Credit Agricole 1.75 2.50Credit Suisse 1.75 2.25Daiwa 2.50 3.00DBS Bank 1.75 -Deutsche Bank 1.50 1.50EIU - -Frontier Strategy Group - -Goldman Sachs 2.00 2.25HSBC 2.00 2.25ING 1.50 1.50JPMorgan 1.75 -Kasikorn Research 1.75 -Ktzmico 2.50 -Maybank Investment Bank 2.25 -Morgan Stanley 1.50 2.50Nomura 1.50 1.50OCBC Bank - -Oxford Economics - -Standard Chartered 2.25 -TISCO Securities 1.75 2.50UBS 1.50 2.50United Overseas Bank 1.50 -SummaryMinimum 1.50 1.50Maximum 2.50 3.00Median 1.75 2.25Consensus 1.82 2.23History30 days ago 2.01 2.3560 days ago 2.09 2.4190 days ago 2.12 2.50


Interest Rate | 1-day Repurchase Rate

1

2

3

4



0

2

4

6

2000 2005 2010 2015

1

2

3

4



1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16



April 2015

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

< 30.0 31.0 32.0 33.0 34.0 35.0 36.0 37.0 > 37.0


24 | Exchange Rate | THB per USD

26 | THB per USD 2015 | evol. of fcst

25 | Exchange Rate | THB per USD

27 | THB per USD 2016 | evol. of fcst

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from Thomson Reuters. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.24 Exchange rate, THB per USD (eop).25 Quarterly exchange rate, THB per USD (eop).26 Exchange rate, evolution of 2015 forecast during the last 18 months.27 Exchange rate, evolution of 2016 forecast during the last 18 months.28 Exchange rate, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016ANZ 34.5 35.0BofA ML-Phatra Sec. 34.0 34.0Capital Economics 32.0 -CIMB Thai Bank 34.0 -Citigroup Global Mkts 33.5 33.1Credit Agricole 33.5 33.8Credit Suisse 33.5 34.6Daiwa 32.8 33.0DBS Bank 33.3 -Deutsche Bank 35.0 35.0EIU 33.2 33.1Frontier Strategy Group - -Goldman Sachs 34.5 36.0HSBC 33.7 34.1ING 33.6 33.9JPMorgan 33.8 -Kasikorn Research 34.0 -Ktzmico 32.8 -Maybank Investment Bank 33.2 -Morgan Stanley 34.5 33.5Nomura 33.8 34.0OCBC Bank - -Oxford Economics 33.8 35.0Standard Chartered 32.5 -TISCO Securities 33.5 34.0UBS 34.0 35.0United Overseas Bank 33.4 -SummaryMinimum 32.0 33.0Maximum 35.0 36.0Median 33.6 34.0Consensus 33.6 34.2History30 days ago 33.6 34.160 days ago 33.6 33.990 days ago 33.5 33.7

28 | THB per USD 2015 | Panelist Distribution

Exchange Rate | THB per USD

25

30

35

40



25

30

35

40

45

2000 2005 2010 2015

28

30

32

34

36

38



28

30

32

34

36

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16



April 2015


-10

0

10

20

30


2015 2016


0

100

200

300

400

2000 2005 2010 2015



-5

0

5

10

2000 2005 2010 2015



-1

0

1

2

3

4


2015 2016



Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016ANZ - - - -BofA ML-Phatra Sec. 3.3 1.8 23.3 18.4Capital Economics - - - -CIMB Thai Bank - - 25.8 -Citigroup Global Mkts 7.3 5.3 38.3 32.2Credit Agricole 2.0 1.5 - -Credit Suisse 5.5 3.7 - -Daiwa 3.1 2.0 - -DBS Bank 3.2 2.1 17.7 14.6Deutsche Bank 2.5 2.2 15.6 12.3EIU 2.6 2.2 14.6 9.3Frontier Strategy Group - - - -Goldman Sachs 1.4 2.1 - -HSBC 3.2 2.6 25.6 25.6ING - - - -JPMorgan 2.5 - 16.6 -Kasikorn Research 2.8 - 21.5 -Ktzmico - - 12.3 -Maybank Investment Bank - - - -Morgan Stanley 3.2 3.2 23.0 22.0Nomura 2.2 1.1 24.8 22.7OCBC Bank - - 20.0 -Oxford Economics 5.0 3.5 30.5 26.6Standard Chartered 2.1 0.5 - -TISCO Securities 2.3 1.6 19.2 12.7UBS 4.0 2.6 - -United Overseas Bank 3.5 3.2 - -SummaryMinimum 1.4 0.5 12.3 9.3Maximum 7.3 5.3 38.3 32.2Median 3.1 2.2 21.5 20.2Consensus 3.2 2.4 21.9 19.6History30 days ago 2.7 2.2 20.0 16.460 days ago 2.1 1.7 17.5 13.990 days ago 1.8 1.1 16.3 11.7


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from the Bank of Thailand (BoT). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.29 Current account balance, as % of GDP. 30 Current account balance, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.31 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD. 32 Trade balance, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.



April 2015


Exports and Imports

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016ANZ - - - -BofA ML-Phatra Sec. 228 240 205 221Capital Economics - - - -CIMB Thai Bank 229 - 203 -Citigroup Global Mkts 232 242 194 210Credit Agricole - - - -Credit Suisse - - - -Daiwa - - - -DBS Bank 242 252 224 237Deutsche Bank 245 265 229 252EIU 240 261 225 252Frontier Strategy Group - - - -Goldman Sachs - - - -HSBC 233 242 207 216ING - - - -JPMorgan 238 - 221 -Kasikorn Research 233 - 211 -Ktzmico 233 - 221 -Maybank Investment Bank - - - -Morgan Stanley 236 253 213 231Nomura 229 236 204 213OCBC Bank 228 - 208 -Oxford Economics 237 251 206 225Standard Chartered - - - -TISCO Securities 232 241 213 229UBS - - - -United Overseas Bank - - - -SummaryMinimum 228 236 194 210Maximum 245 265 229 252Median 233 247 211 227Consensus 234 248 212 229History30 days ago 234 247 214 23160 days ago 236 249 218 23590 days ago 236 251 219 239


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from the Bank of Thailand (BoT). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.33 Exports, annual variation in %. 34 Exports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.35 Imports, annual variation in %. 36 Imports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

200

225

250

275

300


2015 2016


-40

-20

0

20

40

2000 2005 2010 2015



-25

0

25

50

2000 2005 2010 2015



220

240

260

280

300


2015 2016




April 2015


130

140

150

160

170


2015 2016


0

20

40

60

80

2000 2005 2010 2015

Thailand

Asia (ex Japan)


5

10

15

20

2000 2005 2010 2015



150

170

190

210


2015 2016



Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016ANZ - - - -BofA ML-Phatra Sec. 156 161 - -Capital Economics - - - -CIMB Thai Bank - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts 165 170 149 154Credit Agricole - - - -Credit Suisse 165 160 146 150Daiwa - - - -DBS Bank - - - -Deutsche Bank - - 145 150EIU 156 164 - -Frontier Strategy Group - - - -Goldman Sachs - - - -HSBC 170 180 156 164ING - - - -JPMorgan 166 - - -Kasikorn Research 150 - 155 -Ktzmico - - - -Maybank Investment Bank - - - -Morgan Stanley - - - -Nomura - - - -OCBC Bank - - - -Oxford Economics 156 165 - -Standard Chartered - - - -TISCO Securities - - - -UBS 157 157 152 157United Overseas Bank - - - -SummaryMinimum 150 157 145 150Maximum 170 180 156 164Median 157 164 150 154Consensus 160 165 150 155History30 days ago 162 168 149 15160 days ago 162 165 146 14690 days ago 168 171 146 135


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from the Bank of Thailand (BoT). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 38 International reserves, months of imports. 39 International reserves, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.40 External debt as % of GDP. 41 External debt, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.



April 2015

Thailand in the Region


Fact Sheet

Thailand2.2%

China60.5%

India12.2%

Korea8.3%

Indonesia5.0%

Other11.9%

Thailand2.1%

China41.1%

India37.8%

Indonesia7.6%

Philippines3.0%

Other8.5%

Japan19.8%

U.S.A.5.1%

EU-278.1%

Other Asia ex-Japan

19.0%

China14.8%

Malaysia5.2%

Other27.9%

Japan10.2%

U.S.A.10.0%

EU-279.4%

Other Asia ex-Japan

28.4%

China11.7%

Hong Kong5.7%

Malaysia5.4%

Other19.1%

Other6.1%


Mineral Fuels20.9%

Food5.3%

Other1.4%


Mineral Fuels5.8%

Agric. Raw Mat.

5.6%

Food13.6%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

0

20

40

60

80

1002005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• Sound economic policy• Diversified trade structure• Competitive tourism industry • Profound political divisions. • Financial system vulnerability

.

.

• Weak communications and information technology

Energy (2012) Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 2,624Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 5,151Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 156Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 156Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 465Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 1249CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 291

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: Baa1 StableS&P: BBB+ StableFitch Ratings: BBB+ Stable


Transportation (2013) Airports: 101Railways (km): 4,071Roadways (km): 180,053Waterways (km): 4,000Chief Ports: Bangkok, Laem Chabang

Official name: Kingdom of ThailandCapital: Bangkok (5.7 m)Other cities: Samut Prakan (0.4 m)Area (km2): 513,120Population (million, 2014 est.): 68.6Population density (per km2, 2014): 134Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 0.4Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 74.18Illiteracy rate (%, 2005): 6.5Language: Thai, EnglishMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT+7

Prime Minister: General Prayuth Chan-ochaLast elections*: 2 February 2014Next elections: 2016Central Bank Governor: Prasarn Trairatvorakul

*Declared unconstitutional by the Consitutional Court, new elections expected in early 2016.

FOCUSECONOMICS Vietnam


April 2015

Vietnam

REAL SECTOR | Manufacturing PMI improves in FebruaryThe HSBC manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose from 51.5 in January to 51.7 in February. As a result, the index rose further above the 50-threshold, which separates expansion from contraction in business conditions.

The monthly increase was supported by an increase in new orders and employment. HSBC added that, “[w]ith input prices decelerating, thanks to the sharp decline of oil prices, and inventories low, we expects output to continue to expand in February, although the Lunar festivity means that there will be some seasonal slowdown.”

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see investment rising 8.1% in 2015, which is up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month’s estimate. For 2016, the panel expects investment to grow 8.1%.

The government targets growth of 6.2% for 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants see the economy growing 6.2% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2016, panelists project the economy to expand 6.3%.

REAL SECTOR | Growth in industrial production decelerates in FebruaryIn February, industrial output rose 7.0% over the same month last year, which was a slowdown over the 17.5% increase recorded in the previous month.

Growth in the Vietnamese economy gradually accelerated last year. In the final quarter of 2014, GDP grew at the fastest rate in four years fostered by an improvement in both exports and domestic demand. Economic data from the first months of 2015 indicate that the economy will likely continue to perform well in the first quarter. Stronger external demand is supporting the manufacturing sector. In fact, in February, the manufacturing PMI improved and industrial production posted healthy growth despite the deceleration over the previous month due to a seasonal effect.

Growth prospects for Vietnam remain strong as its trade balance is expected to improve this year. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to accelerate in 2015 and see GDP expanding 6.2%, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. For 2016, the panel projects that the economy will expand 6.3%.

Inflation fell from 0.9% in January to 0.3% in February, which marked the lowest rate in over a decade. The recent low levels of inflation mainly reflect lower oil prices. FocusEconomics panelists expect inflation to average 2.8% in 2015, which is down 0.8 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2016, the panel expects inflation to pick up and average 4.5%.

Outlook stable



Vietnam

2011-13 2014-16 2017-19Population (million): 88.8 91.6 94.5GDP (USD bn): 148.7 200.3 264GDP per capita (USD): 1,674 2,186 2,796GDP growth (%): 5.6 6.1 6.3Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -4.5 -5.6 -3.9Inflation (%): 11.3 3.8 5.1Current Account (% of GDP): 3.9 3.7 1.9External Debt (% of GDP): 40.2 37.4 31.8


Note: HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). Readings above 50 indicate an expansion in the manufacturing sector while readings below 50 points to a contraction.Source: Markit and HSBC.

46

48

50

52

54




April 2015


Note: Annual and monthly variation of consumer price index in %.Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam (GSO) and FocusEconomics calculations.

0.0

3.0

6.0

9.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0




%%

February’s deceleration was broad-based. Manufacturing as well as electricity, gas and water registered the fastest decreases over the previous month.

Industrial production in February fell 19.2% over the previous month, which was a deterioration over the 2.8% drop seen in January. Annual average growth in industrial production fell from 8.8% in January to 8.1% in February. The month-on-month variation was affected by a base effect due to the Lunar New Year, which was celebrated in February this year.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants estimate that industrial output will grow 8.0% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2016, panelists expect that industrial production will expand 7.9%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation falls to lowest level in over a decade In February, consumer prices fell 0.05% over the previous month, which was slightly up from the 0.20% decline observed in January. According to the General Statistics Office of Vietnam, February’s decrease mainly resulted from lower prices for housing and construction materials as well as for postal services and telecommunication.

Annual inflation fell from 0.9% in January to 0.3% in February and now stands at its lowest level since November 2001. Annual average inflation decreased from 3.7% in January to 3.3% in February, which marked the lowest level since March 2004. As a result, average inflation remains well below the Central Bank’s target of 5.0% for 2015.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect headline inflation to average 2.8% in 2015, which is down 0.8 percentage points from last month’s forecast. According to the panel, average inflation will accelerate to 4.5% in 2016.


Note: Year-on-year variation of industrial production index in %.Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam (GSO) and FocusEconomics calculations.

-12

0

12

24


Year-on-yearAnnual average

%



April 2015


Annual Data 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Real Sector Population (million) 86.9 87.8 88.8 89.7 90.6 91.6 92.5 93.5 94.5 95.5GDP per capita (USD) 1,169 1,373 1,754 1,894 2,032 2,177 2,351 2,566 2,799 3,022GDP (USD bn) 102 121 156 170 184 199 218 240 264 288GDP (VND tn) 1,981 2,537 3,245 3,584 3,938 4,299 4,765 5,303 5,918 6,603Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) 19.4 28.1 27.9 10.4 9.9 9.0 10.8 11.3 11.6 11.6Economic Growth (GDP, ann. variation in %) 6.4 6.2 5.3 5.4 6.0 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.4Private Consumption (ann. variation in %) 8.2 4.1 4.9 5.2 5.5 5.8 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.3Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) 10.9 -7.8 1.9 5.3 7.1 8.1 8.1 8.6 8.7 8.7Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 15.7 13.5 4.8 5.9 7.6 8.0 7.9 8.2 8.2 8.4Unemployment (% of active population, eop) 4.3 3.6 3.2 3.6 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.4Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -2.8 -1.1 -6.8 -5.6 -5.9 -5.6 -5.3 -4.2 -3.9 -3.4Public Debt (% of GDP) 48.4 46.7 48.5 51.6 57.2 59.6 60.6 60.6 61.1 61.1Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M2 in %) 33.3 12.1 18.5 18.5 - - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) 11.8 18.1 6.8 6.0 1.8 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 9.2 18.7 9.1 6.6 4.1 2.8 4.5 5.0 5.2 5.2Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %, aop) 12.6 18.4 9.3 5.3 3.3 - - - - -Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 9.00 15.00 9.00 7.00 6.50 5.86 6.20 6.88 7.00 7.00Exchange Rate (VND per USD, eop) 19,498 21,034 20,840 21,095 21,388 21,671 21,988 22,138 22,537 23,165Exchange Rate (VND per USD, aop) 19,128 20,663 20,874 21,029 21,198 21,531 21,868 22,063 22,338 22,851External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -4.2 0.2 6.0 5.6 4.4 3.8 2.8 2.2 1.9 1.7Current Account Balance (USD bn) -4.3 0.2 9.3 9.5 8.1 7.5 6.1 5.3 5.0 5.0Trade Balance (USD bn) -12.1 -8.9 2.0 0.0 2.0 5.0 2.8 3.9 7.3 12.5Exports (USD bn) 71.7 95.4 114.4 132.0 150.0 162.7 185.5 212.7 244.3 281.1Imports (USD bn) 83.8 104.2 112.4 132.0 148.0 157.7 182.7 208.8 236.9 268.6Exports (annual variation in %) 26.7 33.1 20.0 15.4 13.6 8.4 14.0 14.6 14.9 15.1Imports (annual variation in %) 21.6 24.4 7.9 17.4 12.1 6.5 15.9 14.3 13.5 13.4International Reserves (USD bn) 12.5 13.5 25.6 25.9 36.2 44.0 54.2 57.3 63.5 66.5International Reserves (months of imports) 1.8 1.6 2.7 2.4 2.9 3.3 3.6 3.3 3.2 3.0External Debt (USD bn) 44.9 53.1 59.1 65.5 70.0 74.4 80.5 83.1 84.1 83.7External Debt (% of GDP) 44.2 44.0 38.0 38.5 38.0 37.3 37.0 34.6 31.8 29.0 Quarterly Data Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16Economic Growth (GDP, ann. variation in %) 6.1 7.0 5.8 6.4 6.5 5.8 5.9 6.5 6.6 6.0Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 4.3 2.6 2.4 3.0 3.2 2.2 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.5Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 6.50 6.50 6.17 6.04 5.96 5.86 5.94 6.15 6.18 6.20Exchange Rate (VND per USD, eop) 21,220 21,388 21,443 21,548 21,605 21,671 21,751 21,913 21,978 21,988Trade Balance (USD bn) 0.4 -0.7 - - - - - - - -Exports (USD bn) 38.8 40.2 - - - - - - - -Imports (USD bn) 38.4 40.9 - - - - - - - -Exports (annual variation in %) 11.9 10.8 - - - - - - - -Imports (annual variation in %) 13.5 14.6 - - - - - - - - Monthly Data May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 5.9 6.1 6.1 6.7 8.6 7.9 11.1 9.6 17.5 7.0HSBC Manufacturing PMI (50-threshold) 52.5 52.3 51.7 50.3 51.7 51.0 52.1 52.7 51.5 51.7Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.20 0.30 0.23 0.22 0.40 0.11 -0.27 -0.24 -0.20 -0.05Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 4.7 5.0 4.9 4.3 3.6 3.2 2.6 1.8 0.9 0.3Exchange Rate (VND per USD, eop) 21,158 21,330 21,218 21,195 21,220 21,280 21,353 21,388 21,317 21,348Trade Balance (USD bn) -0.4 -0.1 0.0 1.1 -0.6 0.0 0.4 -1.2 -0.4 -1.0Exports (annual variation in %) 6.3 12.4 11.4 11.3 13.0 11.5 10.3 10.6 17.0 -0.3Imports (annual variation in %) 4.5 15.9 15.6 7.8 17.2 12.5 16.4 15.2 37.4 3.9



April 2015


1 | Real GDP | 2000-2019 | var. in %








Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Asian Development Bank (ADB), General Statistics Office of Vietnam (GSO, Tong Cuc Thong Ke) and the Ministry of Finance. See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: GSO.2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.

Source: GSO.3 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 Private consumption, annual variation in %. Source: GSO.6 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %. Source: GSO.7 Private consumption, change in 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the

last 18 months.8 Gross fixed investment, change in 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the

last 18 months.9 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: GSO.10 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: GSO. 11 Balance of the central government as % of GDP. Source: ADB.12 Industrial production, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the


months. 14 Balance of the central government as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016ANZ 6.5 6.5Capital Economics 6.3 6.5Citigroup Global Mkts 6.2 6.4Credit Agricole 5.7 6.0DBS Bank 6.0 6.2Deutsche Bank 6.2 6.2EIU 6.2 6.4Frontier Strategy Group 6.2 6.1HSBC 6.1 6.1Oxford Economics 6.3 6.4Standard Chartered 6.0 6.2SummaryMinimum 5.7 6.0Maximum 6.5 6.5Median 6.2 6.2Consensus 6.2 6.3History30 days ago 6.2 6.360 days ago 6.1 6.290 days ago 6.0 6.1Additional ForecastsIMF (Oct. 2014) 5.6 5.7ADB (Dec. 2014) 5.8 -Government Target 6.2 -

-5

0

5

10

15

2000 2005 2010 2015

VietnamAsia (ex Japan)World

2

4

6

8

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

VietnamAsia (ex Japan)World

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0



5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0



5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0


2015 2016

0

4

8

12

2000 2005 2010 2015

Vietnam

Asia (ex Japan)-10

0

10

20

30

2000 2005 2010 2015


7

8

9

10


2015 2016



April 2015


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016ANZ - - - - - - - -Capital Economics 5.5 - - - - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts 5.6 5.8 - - 3.2 3.2 -6.0 -5.7Credit Agricole - - - - - - - -DBS Bank - - - - 3.0 2.8 - -Deutsche Bank 5.9 6.0 7.0 7.5 3.2 3.2 -5.3 -5.3EIU 6.7 7.1 8.9 9.8 2.8 2.4 -4.4 -3.9Frontier Strategy Group 5.8 5.9 - - - - - -HSBC 5.6 5.8 8.0 7.0 - - -6.0 -5.9Oxford Economics - - 8.5 8.2 - - -6.1 -5.7Standard Chartered - - - - - - - -SummaryMinimum 5.5 5.8 7.0 7.0 2.8 2.4 -6.1 -5.9Maximum 6.7 7.1 8.9 9.8 3.2 3.2 -4.4 -3.9Median 5.7 5.9 8.3 7.9 3.1 3.0 -6.0 -5.7Consensus 5.8 6.1 8.1 8.1 3.1 2.9 -5.6 -5.3History30 days ago 5.8 6.1 7.9 8.1 3.1 2.9 -5.5 -5.360 days ago 5.7 6.0 7.9 8.1 3.1 2.9 -5.3 -5.190 days ago 5.6 6.1 7.1 8.1 3.1 2.8 -5.3 -4.9

Consumption Investment Unemployment Fiscal Balance variation in % variation in % % of active pop. % of GDP







5

6

7

8

9

10


2015 2016

0

5

10

15

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

Vietnam

Asia (ex Japan)

2

3

4

5


2015 2016

2

3

4

5

6

7

2000 2005 2010 2015

Vietnam

Asia (ex Japan)

-6

-5

-4

-3


2015 2016

-8

-4

0

4

2000 2005 2010 2015

Vietnam

Asia (ex Japan)



April 2015



Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the General Statistics Office of Vietnam (GSO, Tong Cuc Thong Ke). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 15 Inflation, annual average variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %.

Source: GSO.16 Inflation, annual variation of quarterly average consumer price index

(CPI) in %. Source: GSO.17 Inflation, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.18 Inflation, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.19 Producer price indices, annual variation in % (aop). 2000-2014. Source:

GSO.20 Money, annual variation of M2 in %. 2000-2013. Source: ADB.21 Daily MSCI Price index in USD. Jan. 2010 until end of previous week.

Source: MSCI Barra.22 Daily index levels, HSX Index. January 2010 until end of previous week.

Source: Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange.

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016ANZ 2.6 3.8Capital Economics 2.0 3.0Citigroup Global Mkts 2.0 5.9Credit Agricole 3.5 4.1DBS Bank 1.9 3.5Deutsche Bank 2.7 6.9EIU 3.3 4.8Frontier Strategy Group 4.4 5.2HSBC 2.8 4.1Oxford Economics 2.7 4.2Standard Chartered 3.4 4.5SummaryMinimum 1.9 3.0Maximum 4.4 6.9Median 2.7 4.2Consensus 2.8 4.5History30 days ago 3.6 4.560 days ago 4.0 4.890 days ago 4.7 5.6Additional ForecastsIMF (Oct. 2014) 5.2 4.9ADB (Dec. 2014) 5.5 -

15 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | in %


19 | Producer Prices | var. in %


16 | Inflation | Q1 12-Q4 16 | in %



22 | Stock Market | HSX Index

-10

0

10

20

30

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

300

400

500

600

700


0

2

4

6

8

10



-10

0

10

20

30

2000 2005 2010 2015


0

20

40

60

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

300

400

500

600

700


2

4

6

8

10



0

5

10

15

20

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16




April 2015



Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary and external sector data are from from the World Bank (WB), the General Statistics Office of Vietnam (GSO, Tong Cuc Thong Ke) and the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 23 Interest rate, refinancing rate in % (eop). Source: SBV.24 Quarterly interest rate, refinancing rate in % (eop). Source: SBV.25 Interest rate, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.26 Interest rate, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.27 Exchange rate, VND per USD (eop). Source: Thomson Reuters.28 Quarterly exchange rate, VND per USD (eop). Source: Thomson

Reuters. 29 Exchange rate, evolution of 2015 forecast during the last 18 months.30 Exchange rate, evolution of 2016 forecast during the last 18 months.31 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: SBV.32 Trade balance, imports and exports, in USD bn. Source: GSO.33 International reserves, months of imports. Source: WB.34 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016

forecast during the last 18 months.35 Exports, annual variation in %. Source: GSO.36 External debt as % of GDP. Source: WB.

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016ANZ 6.00 6.00 22,050 22,350Capital Economics 6.00 5.00 - -Citigroup Global Mkts 6.00 6.50 21,659 21,552Credit Agricole - - 21,600 21,800DBS Bank 5.00 - 21,350 -Deutsche Bank 6.00 6.50 22,000 22,100EIU 6.00 7.00 21,562 22,015Frontier Strategy Group - - - -HSBC - - 21,750 22,000Oxford Economics - - 21,566 22,100Standard Chartered 6.00 - 21,500 -SummaryMinimum 5.00 5.00 21,350 21,552Maximum 6.00 7.00 22,050 22,350Median 6.00 6.50 21,600 22,015Consensus 5.86 6.20 21,671 21,988History30 days ago 6.08 6.00 21,718 22,16360 days ago 6.08 5.83 21,680 21,98490 days ago 6.23 6.70 21,630 21,838

Interest Rate Exchange Rate% VND per USD

23 | Interest Rate | 2000 - 2019 | in %


27 | Exchange Rate | VND per USD

29 | VND per USD 2015 | evol. of fcst



28 | Exchange Rate | VND per USD

30 | VND per USD 2016 | evol. of fcst

20,000

21,000

22,000

23,000



20,000

21,000

22,000

23,000



4

6

8

10



20,400

21,000

21,600

22,200

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

3

8

13

18

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2000 2005 2010 2015

0

5

10

15

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

Vietnam

Asia (ex Japan)

4

6

8

10





April 2015








Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016ANZ 2.8 2.0 - - - - - - - -Capital Economics - - - - - - - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts 4.7 3.9 11.7 10.0 166 186 155 176 49.0 59.3Credit Agricole 3.5 3.0 - - - - - - - -DBS Bank 4.2 4.0 -0.1 0.1 153 157 154 157 - -Deutsche Bank 3.5 0.0 5.0 -2.0 168 198 163 200 - -EIU 3.0 1.7 7.9 5.7 158 196 150 190 43.2 57.7Frontier Strategy Group - - - - - - - - - -HSBC 2.9 2.8 0.4 0.3 168 190 168 190 47.0 55.0Oxford Economics 4.4 2.3 - - - - - - 36.7 44.6Standard Chartered 5.0 5.5 - - - - - - - -SummaryMinimum 2.8 0.0 -0.1 -2.0 153 157 150 157 36.7 44.6Maximum 5.0 5.5 11.7 10.0 168 198 168 200 49.0 59.3Median 3.5 2.8 5.0 0.3 166 190 155 190 45.1 56.3Consensus 3.8 2.8 5.0 2.8 163 185 158 183 44.0 54.2History30 days ago 3.7 2.6 5.0 3.3 165 192 160 189 44.0 52.260 days ago 3.5 2.4 4.5 2.2 165 192 161 190 43.7 51.790 days ago 3.9 2.9 4.3 1.6 166 197 161 195 45.8 52.4

Current Account Trade Balance Exports Imports Int. Reserves% of GDP USD bn USD bn USD bn USD bn

0.5

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5


2015 2016

-20

-10

0

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

Vietnam

Asia (ex Japan)

-20

0

20

40

2000 2005 2010 2015

Vietnam

Asia (ex Japan)

-100

0

100

200

300

2000 2005 2010 2015

Trade Balance

Exports

Imports

10

20

30

40

50

2000 2005 2010 2015

Vietnam

Asia (ex Japan)

0

5

10

15

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

Vietnam

Asia (ex Japan)



April 2015

Vietnam in the Region


Fact Sheet

Vietnam1.1%

China61.7%

India12.6%

Korea6.3%

Indonesia5.1%

Other13.3%

Vietnam2.7%

China41.1%

India37.8%

Indonesia7.6%

Philippines3.0%

Other7.8%

Japan10.4%

EU-277.9%

Other Asia ex-Japan

12.2%

China25.8%

Korea13.9%

Singapore6.0%

Other23.8%

U.S.A.17.9%

Japan11.9%

EU-2718.4%

Other Asia ex-Japan

23.8%

China11.2%

Korea5.1%

Other11.7%

Other8.0%


Mineral Fuels9.9%

Food8.4%

Other4.1%


Mineral Fuels9.6%

Food16.7%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

-20

10

40

70

100

1302005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• Diversified exports • Large public sector• Net exporter of crude oil • Insufficient infrastructure

• Weak financial system

.

.

• Low cost and productive workforce

Energy (2012)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 2,576Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 2,326Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 118.2Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 108.3Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 364Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 454CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 132

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: B1 StableS&P: BB- StableFitch Ratings: BB- Stable


Transportation (2013) Airports: 45Railways (km): 2,632Roadways (km): 206,633Waterways (km): 47,130Chief Ports: Saigon, Hai Phong

Official name: Socialist Republicof Vietnam

Capital: Ha Noi (3.2 m)Other cities: Ho Chi Minh City (6.2 m)

Hai Phong (1.8 m)Area (km2): 331,210Population (million, 2014 est.): 90.6Population density (per km2, 2014): 274Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 1.0Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 72.9Illiteracy rate (%, 2011): 6.6Language: VietnameseMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT+7

President: Truong Tan SangLast elections: 25 July 2011Next elections: July 2015Governor of State Bank: Nguyen Van Bình

FOCUSECONOMICS Brunei


April 2015

Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2016 unless otherwise stated. All data are from International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: IMF. 2 Inflation, annual average variation in consumer price index (CPI) in %. Source: WB.3 Current Account Balance, % of GDP. Source: IMF.

-5

0

5

10

15

2000 2005 2010 2015

BruneiAsia (ex Japan)World


2 | Inflation | in %

1 | GDP | variation in %

Brunei

Teresa KerstingEconomist

Outlook moderates

Annual Data 2013 2014 2015 2016Real Sector Population (million) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4GDP per capita (USD) 39,682 43,238 41,816 43,060GDP (USD bn) 16.1 17.9 17.5 18.3GDP (BND bn) 22.6 22.7 23.2 24.0Economic Growth (Nom. GDP, ann. var. in %) -4.9 0.3 2.3 3.5Economic Growth (GDP, ann. variation in %) -2.1 0.1 2.1 3.1Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 3.8 3.5 3.2 3.1Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 16.8 11.3 4.0 6.1Public Debt (% of GDP) 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3Monetary and Financial Sector Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 0.4 -0.2 0.2 0.4Prime Lending Rate (%, eop) 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50Exchange Rate (BND per USD, eop) 1.26 1.33 1.32 1.30Exchange Rate (BND per USD, aop) 1.25 1.27 1.32 1.31External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 31.5 31.4 28.0 27.4Current Account Balance (USD bn) 5.1 5.6 4.9 5.0Trade Balance (USD bn) 7.8 7.9 7.1 7.8Exports (USD bn) 11.4 11.4 10.7 11.8Imports (USD bn) 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.5Exports (annual variation in %) -11.9 -0.3 -5.9 10.0Imports (annual variation in %) 1.1 -5.1 -2.9 4.2International Reserves (USD bn) 3.4 3.0 3.0 3.5International Reserves (months of imports) 11.3 10.4 10.7 12.1External Debt (USD bn) 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0External Debt (% of GDP) 5.1 4.8 5.1 5.3

0

20

40

60

2000 2005 2010 2015

Brunei

Asia (ex Japan)

-5

0

5

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

BruneiAsia (ex Japan)

The economy of Brunei is expected to have posted a timid expansion in 2014. While GDP shrank in Q1 as a result of extensive maintenance works in the dominant oil and gas sector, growth picked back up in Q2. However, the low global price for crude triggered another contraction in Q3. The hydrocarbon sector has dominated the economy for decades, accounting for more than 90% of exports and more than 50% of GDP. The government is making an effort to modernize the sector, to develop other industries and to attract foreign firms, but progress is slow.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts panelists revised down Brunei’s economic outlook by 0.2 percentage points on expectations that the low oil price will drag on growth and on public accounts. They see the economy growing 2.1% in 2015 and 3.1% in 2016.

In January, inflation came in at 0.5% (December: 1.2% year-on-year). Panelists see inflation averaging 0.2% in 2015 and 0.4% in 2016.

Other Countries

FOCUSECONOMICS Brunei


April 2015

Brunei in the Region


Fact Sheet

Brunei0.1%

China60.6%India

12.3%

Korea8.0%

Indonesia5.0%

Other14.0%

Brunei0.01%

China41.1%

India37.8%

Indonesia7.6%

Philippines3.0%

Other10.5%

U.K.20.6%

Other Asia ex-Japan

8.2%

Singapore25.4%

China20.6%

Malaysia14.9%

Other10.3%

Japan45.7%

Australia9.1%

New Zealand

6.6%

Other Asia ex-Japan

31.6%

Korea15.1%

India5.8%

Other-0.1

Other2.3%

Agricultural products14.2%

Fuels and mining

products11.2%

Manufactures

72.3%

Other4.1%

Fuels and mining

products95.9%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

0

20

40

60

80

1002005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• Political stability • Low gross capital formation• Institutions and regulatory quality• FDI net inflows and intangible assets• Oil and natural gas reserves

• Low expenditure on education and R&D

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: - -S&P: - -Fitch Ratings: - -


Transportation (2013) Airports: 1Roadways (km): 3,029Chief Ports: Muara

Official name: Brunei DarussalamCapital: Bandar Seri Begawan (0.3)Area (km2): 5765.0Population (million, 2014 est.): 0.4Population density (per km2, 2014): 72Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 1.7Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 76.8Illiteracy rate (%, 2011 est.): 4.6Language: Malay, English

ChineseMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT+8

Head of State: Hassanal BolkiahMonetary Authority, Chairman: Al-Muhtadee Billah

Energy (2012)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 792Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 152Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 3.7Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 3.5Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 159Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 18.0CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 8.7

FOCUSECONOMICS Cambodia


April 2015

Cambodia

Carl Kelly Economist

Outlook moderates

Annual Data 2013 2014 2015 2016Real Sector Population (million) 15.1 15.3 15.5 15.8GDP per capita (USD) 1,010 1,107 1,187 1,279GDP (USD bn) 15.2 16.9 18.4 20.2GDP (KHR bn) 61,065 67,981 75,277 83,460Economic Growth (Nom. GDP, ann. var. in %) 7.7 11.3 10.7 10.9Economic Growth (GDP, ann. variation in %) 7.4 7.1 7.3 7.4Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -2.7 -2.8 -2.2 -1.8Public Debt (% of GDP) 28.4 28.6 28.2 28.0Monetary and Financial Sector Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 3.0 4.2 3.4 3.4Deposit Rate (%, eop) 1.34 1.44 1.46 1.50Exchange Rate (KHR per USD, eop) 3,970 4,050 4,111 4,160Exchange Rate (KHR per USD, aop) 4,007 4,011 4,080 4,135External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -10.5 -10.0 -8.3 -7.1Current Account Balance (USD bn) -1.6 -1.7 -1.5 -1.4Trade Balance (USD bn) -3.7 -2.2 -2.3 -2.3Exports (USD bn) 9.3 10.3 11.4 12.8Imports (USD bn) 13.0 14.3 16.0 18.1Exports (annual variation in %) 18.7 10.5 11.2 12.1Imports (annual variation in %) 18.2 10.1 12.1 12.7International Reserves (USD bn) 4.5 5.4 5.7 6.4International Reserves (months of imports) 4.2 4.5 4.3 4.2External Debt (USD bn) 6.4 6.6 7.3 8.4External Debt (% of GDP) 42.2 39.0 39.5 41.5




-10

0

10

20

30

2000 2005 2010 2015

CambodiaAsia (ex Japan)

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

2000 2005 2010 2015

Cambodia

Asia (ex Japan)

-5

0

5

10

15

2000 2005 2010 2015

CambodiaAsia (ex Japan)World

Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2016 unless otherwise stated. All data are from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: WB. 2 Inflation, annual average variation in consumer price index (CPI) in %. Source: IMF.3 Balance of non-financial public sector, % of GDP. Source: IMF.

Prime Minister Hun Sen stated in a speech delivered at the Cambodia Outlook Conference earlier this month that the government expects the economy to grow 7.0% this year. He also unveiled the Industrial Development Policy 2015–2025 program. This long-term policy framework aims to diversify the country’s manufacturing base, attract foreign investment, modernize business operations, and strengthen partnerships with fellow ASEAN members. While the garment and textile industry, which currently represents more than 80% of the country’s exports, will likely remain a major engine of economic growth in the coming years, the government’s goal with the program is to transition into light industries that add more value to the economy.

Cambodia remains a high-growth economy despite persistent social unrest and political uncertainty. Panelists expect GDP to grow 7.3% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. Panelists expecte GDP to increase 7.4% in 2016.

Inflation hovered between 4.0% and 5.0% throughout 2014. Panelists expect inflation to average 3.4% in both 2015 and in 2016.

FOCUSECONOMICS Cambodia


April 2015

Cambodia in the Region


Fact Sheet

Cambodia0.1%

China60.6%India

12.3%

Korea8.0%

Indonesia5.0%

Other14.0%

Cambodia0.5%

China41.1%

India37.8%

Indonesia7.6%

Philippines3.0%

Other10.1%

Other Asia ex-Japan

15.3%

Thailand27.0%

Vietnam20.3%

China19.4%

Other18.0%

U.S.A.32.5%

Canada7.6%

Other EU-27

11.4%

U.K.8.3%

Germany7.7%

Other Asia ex-Japan

10.2%

Singapore6.6%

Vietnam5.6%

Other10.0%

Other2.7%


Mineral Fuels12.9%

Food6.7%

Other6.4%


Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1202005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• Expanding textiles industry • Small domestic market, high• Regional integration with levels of poverty

• Corruption and political instability• Underdeveloped infrastructure.

ASEAN countries

Energy (2012)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 5Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 102Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 1.4Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 3.0Oil Supply (thousand bpd): -Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 43CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 6

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: B2 StableS&P: B StableFitch Ratings: - -


Transportation (2013) Airports: 16Railways (km): 690Roadways (km): 39,618Waterways (km): 3,700Chief Ports: Sihanoukville

Official name: Kingdom of CambodiaCapital: Phnom Penh (1.6 m)Other cities: Takeo (0.8 m)

Sihanoukville (0.2 m)Area (km2): 181,035Population (million, 2014 est.): 15.3Population density (per km2, 2014): 85Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 1.6Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 63.78Illiteracy rate (%, 2009): 26.1Language: KhmerMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT+7

Prime Minister: Hun SenLast elections: 28 July 2013Next elections: 2018Governor of Central Bank: Chea Chanto

FOCUSECONOMICS Laos


April 2015

Laos

Angela Bouzanis Economist

Outlook moderates

Annual Data 2013 2014 2015 2016Real Sector Population (million) 6.8 6.9 7.0 7.2GDP per capita (USD) 1,661 1,491 1,613 1,719GDP (USD bn) 11.2 10.3 11.3 12.3GDP (LAK bn) 74,220 83,348 92,874 103,818Economic Growth (Nom. GDP, ann. var. in %) 12.0 12.3 11.4 11.8Economic Growth (GDP, ann. variation in %) 8.5 7.4 7.2 7.5Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -5.6 -4.9 -4.2 -4.0Public Debt (% of GDP) 61.3 61.1 60.3 59.2Monetary and Financial Sector Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 6.4 4.1 4.2 4.32-Week Lending Rate (%, eop) 6.25 6.25 6.27 6.33Exchange Rate (LAK per USD, eop) 7,938 8,035 8,237 8,519Exchange Rate (LAK per USD, aop) 7,839 8,048 8,136 8,378External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -27.7 -22.3 -20.8 -18.0Current Account Balance (USD bn) -3.1 -2.3 -2.4 -2.2Trade Balance (USD bn) -1.1 -1.1 -1.2 -1.4Exports (USD bn) 2.3 2.7 3.1 3.3Imports (USD bn) 3.4 3.8 4.3 4.7Exports (annual variation in %) 3.3 16.6 13.8 5.4Imports (annual variation in %) 11.8 10.9 13.0 9.9International Reserves (USD bn) 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9International Reserves (months of imports) 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.2External Debt (USD bn) 8.6 8.7 9.3 10.0External Debt (% of GDP) 76.6 84.2 82.1 81.1




-10

0

10

20

30

2000 2005 2010 2015

LaosAsia (ex Japan)

-30

-20

-10

0

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

Laos

Asia (ex Japan)

-3

0

3

6

9

12

2000 2005 2010 2015

LaosAsia (ex Japan)World

Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2016 unless otherwise stated. All data are from World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Asian Development Bank (ADB). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: World Bank.2 Inflation, annual average variation in consumer price index (CPI) in %. Source: IMF.3 Current account balance, % of GDP. Source: ADB.

Laos’ economy is expected to have grown at a healthy pace last year, sustained by the energy and mining sectors. The President of the Asian Development Bank, Takehiko Nakao, concluded his first visit to the country on 13 March. Nakao praised Laos’ strong growth rates in recent years, but stated that diversification of the economy is crucial to development going forward. In addition, Nakao signed a USD 40 million project loan to upgrade Laos’ tourism infrastructure during his visit.

Laos’ growth prospects remain fairly positive. Increasing tourism along with hydropower investment and an accelerating construction sector are expected to maintain the fast pace of growth in 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to expand 7.2% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, panelists see GDP expanding 7.5%.

Annual inflation decreased from 2.4% in December to 2.0% in January, continuing 2014’s downward trend. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see inflation at 4.2% in 2015 and at 4.3% in 2016.

FOCUSECONOMICS Laos


April 2015

Laos in the Region


Fact Sheet

Laos0.1%

China60.5%India

12.3%

Korea7.9%

Indonesia5.2%

Other14.0%

Laos0.2%

China41.1%

India37.8%

Indonesia7.6%

Philippines3.0%

Other10.3%

Other Asia ex-Japan

5.6%

Thailand61.9%

China16.2%

Vietnam7.3%

Other9.0%

EU-278.6%

Other Asia ex-Japan

5.9%

Thailand34.0%

China21.5%

Vietnam12.2%

Other17.8%

Other25.5%


Ores & Metals8.2%

Mineral Fuels5.5%

Agricultural Raw Mat.

23.3%

Other

17.8%


Ores & Metals22.7%

Mineral Fuels39.1%

Agric. Raw Mat.

6.0%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1202005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• Expanding hydroelectric sector • Persistent external • Abundant natural resources imbalances

• Weak financial system

.

.

Energy (2012)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 122Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 97Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 12.1Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 2.9Oil Supply (thousand bpd): -Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 3.5CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 1.6



Transportation (2013) Airports: 41Railways (km): -Roadways (km): 39,568Waterways (km): 4,600Chief Ports: -

Official name: Lao People'sDemocratic Republic

Capital: Vientiane (0.2 m)Other cities: Pakxe (0.09 m)

Savannakhet (0.07 m)Area (km2): 236,800Population (million, 2014 est.): 6.9Population density (per km2, 2014): 29.1Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 1.6Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 63.5Illiteracy rate (%, 2005): 27.3Language: Lao, French, EnglishMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT+7

President: Choummaly SayasoneLast elections: 22 April 2011Next elections: 2016Governor of Central Bank: Somphao Phaysith

FOCUSECONOMICS Myanmar


April 2015

Myanmar


Outlook stable

Annual Data 2013 2014 2015 2016Real Sector Population (million) 51.0 51.4 51.8 52.3GDP per capita (USD) 1,113 1,232 1,319 1,477GDP (USD bn) 56.8 63.4 68.4 77.2GDP (MMK bn) 54,756 62,577 71,530 81,761Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) 14.4 14.3 14.3 14.3Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 8.3 7.9 8.0 7.9Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 4.0 4.3 4.2 4.2Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -1.6 -4.5 -4.5 -4.4Public Debt (% of GDP) 39.8 43.0 42.0 42.3Monetary and Financial Sector Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 5.7 5.5 6.3 6.4Discount Rate (%, eop) 10.00 10.00 10.26 11.01Exchange Rate (MMK per USD, eop) 984 1,025 1,050 1,053Exchange Rate (MMK per USD, aop) 934 980 1,038 1,051External Sector Current Account (% of GDP) -5.4 -5.1 -5.2 -5.0Current Account (USD bn) -3.1 -3.2 -3.5 -3.9Trade Balance (USD bn) -10.0 -9.9 -11.3 -14.1Exports (USD bn) 10.4 12.5 14.1 16.0Imports (USD bn) 20.4 22.4 25.5 29.3Exports (annual variation in %) 26.2 19.5 13.5 12.9Imports (annual variation in %) 19.9 9.7 13.7 14.9International Reserves (USD bn) 6.0 6.9 8.1 8.7International Reserves (months of imports) 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.6External Debt (USD bn) 7.4 5.9 6.0 7.0External Debt (% of GDP) 13.0 9.3 8.8 9.0




-20

0

20

40

60

2000 2005 2010 2015

Myanmar

Asia (ex Japan)

-10

-5

0

5

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

Myanmar

Asia (ex Japan)

-5

0

5

10

15

2000 2005 2010 2015

MyanmarAsia (ex Japan)World

Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2016 unless otherwise stated. All data are from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: IMF.2 Inflation, annual average in consumer price index (CPI) in %. Source: IMF.3 Current account balance, % of GDP. Source: IMF.

The government declared a state of emergency last month in the self-administered Kokang region and, in early March, clashes flared up again between Burmese soldiers and the ethnic minority rebels known as the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA). Tensions intensified after a Myanmar aircraft dropped a bomb on a field in Yunnan, a province in neighboring China. The incident could have a negative impact on the relationship between China and Myanmar and might increase instability in the border area. In order to escape the fighting in Kokang, thousands of refugees have fled the country in recent weeks to China and to other regions of Myanmar.

Uncertainty ahead of the 2015 general elections and geopolitical tensions represent major challenges for Myanmar going forward. FocusEconomics panelists expect the economy to grow 8.0% in 2015 and 7.9% in 2016.

Annual inflation rose from 6.2% in November to 7.1% in December. Panelists expect inflation to average 6.3% in 2015 and 6.4% in 2016.

FOCUSECONOMICS Myanmar


April 2015

Myanmar in the Region


Fact Sheet

Myanmar0.4%

China61.7%

India12.6%

Korea6.3%

Indonesia5.1%

Other14.0%

Myanmar1.5%

China41.1%

India37.8%

Indonesia7.6%

Philippines3.0%

Other9.0%

Japan8.1%

Other Asia ex-Japan

13.4%

China36.4%

Thailand20.0%

Singapore8.6%

Other13.5%

Japan7.4%

Other Asia ex-Japan

9.7%

Thailand40.7%

India14.8%

China14.3%

Other13.1%

Other1.3%


Mineral Fuels22.4%

Food8.3%

Other1.2%


Mineral Fuels38.5%

Agric. Raw Mat.

10.6%

Food19.6%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

0

20

40

60

80

1002003-05 2006-08 2009-11

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002003-05 2006-08 2009-11

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• Abundant raw materials • High risk of ethnic tensions• Poorly diversified economy• Underdeveloped financial sector

. .

• Lack of structural reform

• Considerable hydroelectric potential• Proximity to dynamic economies (China, India, Thailand)

Energy (2012)Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 281Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 10.5Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 7.8Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 20.8Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 27CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 13


Transportation (2013) Airports: 64Roadways (km): 34,377Chief Ports: Moulmein, Sittwe

Official name:

Capital: NaypyidawArea (km2): 676,578Population (million, 2014 est.): 51Population density (per km2, 2014): 76Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 1.0Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 65.9Illiteracy rate (%, 2011): 7.3Language: Burmese, EnglishMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT+6.30

Republic of the Union of Myanmar

President: Thein SeinLast elections: 7 November 2010Next elections: November 2015Central Bank Governor: U Kyaw Kyaw Maung

Telecommunication (2013) Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 1.0Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 12.8Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 1.2

FOCUSECONOMICS


April 2015

Notes and Statements

PUBLICATION NOTE

Consensus forecasts are mean averages of projections of economic forecasters surveyed by FocusEconomics for our monthly publication. Quarterly averages may not correspond to the annual figures due to different forecast panels.

The GDP-weighted averages for the regional aggregates refer to economies surveyed by FocusEconomics on a monthly basis, and include the following countries:

Asia (16 countries): Brunei, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam.Asia ex-Japan (15 countries): Brunei, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam.Asean (Association of Southeast Asian Nations, 10 countries): Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar (Burma), Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.NIEs (Newly Industrialized Economies, 4 countries): Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan.

Weights are based on market exchange rates and reflect the latest forecasts on GDP growth, inflation and exchange rates.

COPYRIGHT NOTE

© Copyright 2015 FocusEconomics S.L. Duplication, reproduction, transmission, publication or redistribution in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, or otherwise without prior written consent of FocusEconomics S.L. is strictly prohibited. Please cite source when quoting. All rights reserved under International Copyright Conventions.

The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia is a monthly publication of FocusEconomics. Communications to the Editor or FocusEconomics in general should be addressed as follows:

FocusEconomics S.L.Gran Via 657E-08010 BarcelonaSpaintel: +34 932 651 040fax: +34 932 650 804e-mail: [email protected] web: http://www.focus-economics.com

DISCLOSURE STATEMENT

The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia (“Forecast”) is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable. FocusEconomics and the participating panelists (“Information Providers”) do not guarantee that the information supplied in the Forecast is accurate, complete or timely. The Information Providers do not make any warranties with regard to the results obtained from the Forecast. The Information Providers are not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for any injuries or damages resulting from the use of this information, including incidental and consequential damages. Recipients should not regard the Forecast as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgement. The recommendations made in the Forecast may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. The Forecast has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation of any transaction or an offer to enter into any transaction. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice and the Information Providers are under no obligation to update the information contained herein.

Notes

ASIA PACIFIC |

CENTRAL AMERICA |& CARIBBEAN |

EASTERN EUROPE|

EURO AREA |

LATIN AMERICA|

MAJOR ECONOMIES |

MIDDLE EAST| & NORTH AFRICA|

NORDIC ECONOMIES|

Brunei, China, Cambodia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam, Australia & New Zealand

Belize, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico and Trinidad & Tobago

Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey & Ukraine

Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia & Spain

Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay & Venezuela

G7 countries (United States, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, France, Eurozone, Germany & Italy); BRIC overview (Brazil, Russia, India & China); Switzerland

Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, Yemen; South Africa

Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast reports cover economic forecasts for over 1,600 unique indicators in 95 countries. Every monthly report includes the Consensus Forecast for each indicator covered. The Consensus Forecast, based on an average of the forecasts provided by the most reputable economic research authorities in the world, is the one number you can rely on to make important business decisions.

REGIONS & COUNTRIES COVERED

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