Consensus Forecast Report Overview - FocusEconomics...JEAN-PHILIPPE T OLIVER REYNOLDS Economist...

SUMMARY

3CALENDAR

19ARGENTINA

21BRAZIL

34CHILE

48COLOMBIA

62MEXICO

76PERU

93VENEZUELA

107OTHER COUNTRIES

122BOLIVIA

122ECUADOR

125PARAGUAY

131URUGUAY

134NOTES

140

PUBLICATION DATE 14 February 2017FORECASTS COLLECTED 7 February - 13 February 2017INFORMATION AVAILABLE Up to and including 13 February 2017

NEXT EDITION 14 March 2017

LATINFOCUS CONSENSUSFORECASTLatin America • February 2017

ContributorsARNE POHLMAN Chief Economist ARMANDO CICCARELLI Head of Data Solutions RICARD TORNÉ Head of Economic Research

RICARDO ACEVES Senior Economist ANGELA BOUZANIS Senior EconomistDAVID AMPUDIA Economist

MASSIMO BASSETTI Economist OLGA COSCODAN Economist

LUIS LÓPEZ VIVAS Economist

JEAN-PHILIPPE POURCELOT Economist OLIVER REYNOLDS Economist

MARLÈNE RUMP Economist

CHRISTOPHERMC INNES EconomistCAROLINE GRAY Editor

Explore www.focus-economics.com

Consensus Forecast Report Overview

FocusEconomics reports are designed to give you fast access to the data and insight you need so that you can make the right decisions for your business.

Our reports provide hundreds of economic and commodities price forecasts from our network of more than 900 of the most reputable economic analysts in the world.

This overview first highlights the Consensus Forecast for a country along with the advantages of our method, and then explains the full report in detail.

We cover 127 countries with reports on the following regions:o Asia Pacifico Euro areao Eastern Europeo G7o Latin Americao Middle East & North Africao Sub-Saharan Africa

FOCUSECONOMICS Argentina

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 25

February 2017

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

< 0.8 1.4 2.0 2.6 3.2 3.8 4.4 5.0 > 5.0

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product

1 | Real GDP | 2000-2021 | var. in %

3 | GDP 2017 | evolution of forecasts

2 | Real GDP | Q1 13-Q4 17 | var. in %. Real GDP growth in %


Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2021 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.1 GDP, annual variation in %. 2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %. 3 GDP, evolution of 2017 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2018 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2017 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in

%. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

Individual Forecasts 2017 2018ABECEB 3.5 3.5Analytica Consultora 5.0 4.0Banco de Galicia 3.5 -Banco Supervielle 3.6 4.2Barclays Capital 3.4 3.0BBVA Banco Francés 2.8 3.0BMI Research 3.2 3.6BTG Pactual 3.2 3.2Capital Economics 1.5 3.5Citigroup Global Mkts 2.5 2.0Credit Suisse 2.9 2.8C&T Asesores 3.5 3.8Deutsche Bank 2.7 3.1Ecolatina 3.0 2.4Econométrica 2.4 -EIU 2.5 3.7Elypsis 3.0 3.0Empiria Consultores 2.5 3.0Estudio Bein & Asoc. 4.8 -Euromonitor Int. 2.5 2.8FIEL 2.9 3.2Frontier Strategy Group 2.1 3.0Fundación Capital 3.1 -FyEConsult 2.5 1.0Gabriel Rubinstein y Asoc. 3.2 3.7Goldman Sachs 2.7 3.5Invecq Consulting 2.5 -Itaú BBA 2.7 3.0JPMorgan 3.2 3.3LCG 3.0 1.0M&F Consultora 3.4 3.6Nomura 3.6 3.5OJF & Asociados 3.5 2.1Oxford Economics 2.5 3.8Santander 3.0 4.5Société Générale 1.8 2.6Standard Chartered 3.0 3.6UBS 3.0 3.0UIA - CEU 2.0 -SummaryMinimum 1.5 1.0Maximum 5.0 4.5Median 3.0 3.2Consensus 3.0 3.1History30 days ago 3.0 3.160 days ago 3.0 3.290 days ago 3.2 3.3Additional ForecastsIMF (Oct. 2016) 2.7 2.8World Bank (Jan. 2017) 2.7 3.2CEPAL (Dec. 2016) 2.3 -

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ArgentinaLatin AmericaWorld

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5 | GDP 2017 | Panelist Distribution


Panel of Analysts &Consensus Forecast

Indicator Summaries

Similar to the Regional Summaries, this section contains data and charts related to the most important economic indicators for the country. Each page covers one to two indicators with the layout of each page similar to this one or the one on the subsequent page, depending on the number of indicators covered per page.

Panel of Individual Analyst Forecasts

FocusEconomics has selected the most prominent economic experts to contribute to its Consensus Forecast including Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, EIU, Goldman Sachs, ING, JPMorgan, Oxford Economics and UBS, among many others.For more information on the Consensus Forecast, visit:Analyst Awards www.focus-economics.com/awardsOECD Insights Blog - Should we rely on economic forecasts? The wisdom of the crowds and the Consensus Forecasthttp://oecdinsights.org/2017/01/16/wisdom-of-crowds-and-consensus-forecast/

Evolution of Forecasts Charts

Graphical content that shows how the Consensus Forecast of the macroeconomic indicator has changed in the last 18 months (history of the forecasts) - these graphs in particular also show how the maximum and the minimum forecasts of the panel of individual analysts has changed in the last 18 months

Country Indicator Forecast Charts

Graphical content that shows the evolution of the macro indicator (GDP in this case) and compares it with the evolution of the same indicator at a regional and global level, where available.

Country In Focus



February 2017

Argentina

REAL SECTOR | Drop in economic activity softens in NovemberIn November, the monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE, Estimador Mensual de Actividad Económica) dropped 1.4% year-on-year, which was an improvement compared to October’s 4.4% decline. The print was above the 2.2% drop that markets had expected and represented the smallest decline since March 2016.

Sequential data corroborate the improvement. A month-on-month comparison showed that economic activity rose 1.4% in seasonally-adjusted terms in November (October: +0.5% month-on-month), which marked the strongest result since February 2015.

On average, in the 12 months up to November, economic activity decreased 2.0%, which was below October’s 1.6% decline and marked the worst result since March 2015.

Although GDP is expected to have contracted again in Q4, there are some incipient signs of economic recovery. Stronger growth in the automotive and food sectors is shoring up industrial activity, while recent consumer

the region overall, though the strong rebound in exports seen in November

previous year. Treasury Minister Nicolas Dujovne announced on 24

the government’s 4.8% target. Although the government plans to reduce

the prospects. The 2016 target was met mostly due to the positive effect of a tax amnesty, while elections this year could encourage government spending.

regional growth. Moreover, the economic reforms implemented by Macri’s administration will start to take off, buttressing business sentiment and propelling investment. Analysts foresee the economy expanding 3.0% this year, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 3.1% in 2018.

expected to decline further in the coming months due to the Central Bank’s

Bank has held the 35-day Lebac rate at 24.75% since early December.

Outlook stable

LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages

Ricard TornéHead of Economic Research

Argentina

2013-15 2016-18 2019-21Population (million): 42.7 44.1 45.6GDP (USD bn): 605 617 748GDP per capita (USD): 14,175 13,977 16,395GDP growth (%): 0.8 1.2 3.2Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -2.7 -4.4 -3.0Public Debt (% of GDP): 35.8 51.1 53.4Inflation (%): 27.4 28.6 9.9Current Account (% of GDP): -2.0 -2.7 -3.0External Debt (% of GDP): 25.2 33.5 33.9


Executive Summary

Written Analysis

This section provides comprehensive written analysis of the most relevant macroeconomic indicators. Frequency of the data covered is quarterly, monthly and daily, depending on the indicator. The coverage also includes results of monetary policy decisions, budgets and political events.

Country In Focus

Executive Summary | State of PlayThe executive summary starts with a glimpse of the current state of economic affairs in the country, according to most recent data. It also covers any relevant events with a significant impact on the economy.

Executive Summary | OutlookThe second section contains a condensed version of the economic outlook for the country and its risks based on the GDP growth Consensus Forecast.

Executive Summary | Monetary SectorThe last section identifies relevant monetary developments such as the current inflation level, latest monetary policy decisions, relevant movements in foreign exchange rates and inflation expectations based on the Consensus Forecast.

Long-Term Trends Summary Table

This table provides a quick view of the country's most relevant macroeconomic indicators and their performance.


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Table of Contents

SUMMARY 3CALENDAR 19ARGENTINA 21BRAZIL 34CHILE 48COLOMBIA 62MEXICO 76PERU 93VENEZUELA 107OTHER COUNTRIES 122

BOLIVIA 122ECUADOR 125PARAGUAY 131URUGUAY 134

NOTES 140

PUBLICATION DATE 14 February 2017FORECASTS COLLECTED 7 February - 13 February 2017

INFORMATION AVAILABLE Up to and including 13 February 2017 NEXT EDITION 14 March 2017

LATINFOCUS CONSENSUSFORECAST

Latin America • February 2017

ContributorsARNE POHLMAN Chief Economist

ARMANDO CICCARELLI Head of Data Solutions

RICARD TORNÉ Head of Economic Research

RICARDO ACEVES Senior Economist

ANGELA BOUZANIS Senior Economist

DAVID AMPUDIA Economist MASSIMO BASSETTI Economist OLGA COSCODAN EconomistLUIS LÓPEZ VIVAS Economist

JEAN-PHILIPPE POURCELOT Economist OLIVER REYNOLDS Economist MARLÈNE RUMP Economist

CHRISTOPHER MC INNES EconomistCAROLINE GRAY Editor

Transparent publication information

Date of publishing, information cut-off date and date of forthcoming report leave no questions open.

Table of ContentsClickable bookmarks enable fast access to main sections of the reports.Optimization for onscreen reading leads to lessprinting, saving costs and improving the ecologicalimpact of the publication.

Region In Focus

FOCUSECONOMICS Summary


February 2017

Forecast Summary | Major Economies and Latin America

Gross Domestic Product, ann. var. in %

Fiscal Balance, % of GDP

Consumer Prices, ann. var. in %

Current Account Balance, % of GDP

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018World -2.7 -3.2 -3.5 -3.3 -3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

United States -2.8 -2.4 -3.2 -3.2 -3.5 -2.3 -2.6 -2.7 -2.8 -2.9Euro area -2.6 -2.1 -1.8 -1.6 -1.5 2.3 3.0 3.2 3.0 2.8Japan -6.2 -5.4 -5.8 -5.6 -5.3 0.8 3.1 3.8 3.6 3.4China -1.8 -3.4 -3.8 -3.7 -3.7 2.6 3.0 2.3 2.2 2.0Latin America -5.3 -6.9 -6.5 -6.4 -5.6 -2.9 -3.3 -2.2 -2.0 -2.1

Centam & Caribbean -11.0 -10.6 -10.2 -9.8 -9.2 -2.9 -1.2 -1.1 -0.8 -1.0Chile -1.6 -2.2 -2.9 -2.9 -2.5 -1.3 -2.0 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6Mexico -3.2 -3.5 -2.6 -2.6 -2.3 -2.0 -2.9 -2.9 -2.9 -2.8

Mercosur -6.2 -9.0 -8.3 -8.0 -6.9 -3.1 -3.5 -1.8 -1.7 -1.9Argentina -2.4 -3.9 -4.7 -4.7 -3.9 -1.4 -2.6 -2.6 -2.8 -2.9Brazil -6.0 -10.2 -8.9 -8.7 -7.6 -4.2 -3.3 -1.3 -1.4 -1.7Paraguay -1.1 -1.7 -1.5 -1.4 -1.3 0.1 -1.0 0.4 -0.5 -0.6Uruguay -3.5 -3.6 -3.8 -3.3 -3.1 -4.4 -2.1 -1.4 -1.6 -2.1Venezuela -12.9 -16.6 -16.3 -14.9 -13.8 0.7 -8.6 -4.8 -1.3 -0.4

Andean Com. -2.4 -3.3 -4.0 -3.4 -2.8 -3.9 -5.2 -3.6 -3.1 -2.8Bolivia -3.4 -6.9 -7.2 -6.9 -6.1 0.2 -5.8 -7.3 -5.6 -4.3Colombia -2.6 -3.1 -4.0 -3.4 -2.9 -5.2 -6.5 -4.8 -4.0 -3.6Ecuador -5.3 -5.2 -5.1 -3.6 -2.7 -0.5 -2.1 0.6 0.3 0.2Peru -0.3 -2.1 -2.9 -2.5 -2.2 -4.0 -4.8 -3.4 -3.0 -2.8

Fiscal Balance, % of GDP Current Account, % of GDP

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018World 2.9 3.0 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.2 2.5 3.4 4.4 4.0

United States 2.4 2.6 1.6 2.3 2.4 1.6 0.1 1.3 2.3 2.3Euro area 1.2 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.5Japan 0.3 1.2 0.9 1.0 0.8 2.8 0.8 -0.1 0.6 0.9China 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.4 6.1 2.0 1.4 2.0 2.2 2.3Latin America 1.0 0.1 -0.7 1.6 2.5 12.9 16.1 28.2 29.1 25.0

Centam & Caribbean 3.0 3.3 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 1.7 2.0 3.1 3.4Chile 1.9 2.3 1.6 2.0 2.6 4.6 4.4 2.7 3.0 3.0Mexico 2.3 2.6 2.3 1.6 2.1 4.1 2.1 3.4 5.0 3.7

Mercosur -0.5 -2.3 -3.5 0.9 2.2 19.7 27.6 50.4 49.1 42.4Argentina -2.5 2.5 -2.3 3.0 3.1 38.0 26.9 41.0 21.5 14.8Brazil 0.5 -3.8 -3.5 0.6 2.2 6.4 10.7 6.3 4.7 4.6Paraguay 4.7 3.1 4.0 3.6 3.7 4.2 3.1 3.9 4.3 4.4Uruguay 3.2 1.0 1.0 1.3 2.3 8.3 9.4 8.1 8.6 7.9Venezuela -3.9 -5.7 -11.4 -3.9 -0.6 68.5 181 633 724 625

Andean Com. 3.8 2.8 2.0 2.6 3.1 3.6 5.3 4.1 3.5 3.1Bolivia 5.5 4.8 3.8 3.8 3.6 5.2 3.0 4.0 5.1 4.7Colombia 4.4 3.1 1.9 2.4 3.1 3.7 6.8 5.7 4.4 3.5Ecuador 4.0 0.2 -2.2 0.1 0.7 3.7 3.4 1.1 1.6 2.0Peru 2.4 3.3 3.9 3.9 4.1 3.2 4.4 3.2 2.8 2.7

Real GDP, annual variation in % Consumer Prices, annual variation in %

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United States Euro area Japan China Latin America

2015 2016 2017 2018


Global and Regional Snapshot

In-a-Nutshell Graphical ComparisonAlong with the "in-a-nutshell" data above, we provide a graphical comparison, which includes two years of actual data and two years of forecasts.

Current Account

Refers to the performance of inflows and outflows (generally in USD terms) with the rest of the world, of merchandise trade, capitals and transactions, relative to the size of the economy.

Fiscal Balance

Refers to the performance of government revenues and expenditures, relative to the size of the economy.

In-a-Nutshell Summary

In this section we provide an "in-a-nutshell" summary of the economies surveyed in this report with comparisons of four key indicators to other major economies and the world. These four key indicators are: - GDP (economic growth) - Consumer Prices (inflation) - Fiscal Balance as % GDP - Current Account as % GDP

Region In Focus



February 2017

SummaryREAL SECTOR | Region ends 2016 worse than expectedA full data breakdown shows that Latin America’s downturn last year was deeper than expected. After having virtually stagnated in 2015, the region’s economy is estimated to have contracted 0.7% in 2016 due to the combined effects of lower commodity prices

heightened volatility in currency markets and severe recessions in Argentina, Brazil and Venezuela caused by poor economic policy in the past.

Latin America is one of the largest producers of commodities in the world. As a proportion of total global production, it produces 50% of soybeans, 40% of copper and 15% of iron ore and it is not surprising that the region’s fastest growth period was during the commodities boom between 2002 and 2008. After that period,

lower growth rates.

Due to the sharp drop in commodity prices, particularly after mid-2014, many countries experienced a deterioration in their terms of

the shifting trend, with their currencies depreciating considerably against the U.S. dollar. In this environment, many countries embarked on drastic policy adjustments, with governments restricting public spending and central banks tightening monetary

and monetary policies caused the region’s economic growth to

In terms of individual countries, the region’s recession in 2016 was led by Argentina and Brazil, while Venezuela’s crisis continues to drag on the region’s growth. In Argentina, ongoing structural reforms are helping to alleviate the pervasive macroeconomic imbalances and microeconomic distortions that were inherited from the policy mismanagement of the previous administration.

December 2015, but the transition has proved harsh for economic activity.

For Brazil’s economy, 2016 marked the longest and deepest recession in many decades and right now the government has

Regional outlook stable

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2017 2018

Latin AmericaEconomic Growth Change in GDP forecasts

Note: GDP, real annual variation in %, Q1 2013 - Q4 2017.

Note: GDP, evolution of 2017 and 2018 forecasts during the last 18 months.


Executive Summary

Regional Executive Summary | State of PlayHere we provide an executive summary of the state of play of the region. This section generally tracks GDP growth at a regional level, and other relevant political and economic events.

Region In Focus



February 2017

limited maneuvering room to support growth. In addition, the country’s recession was exacerbated by a political crisis involving corruption which paralyzed policymaking and severely affected

between 2011 and 2014 did not address many structural issues and in fact proved counterproductive, as they contributed to a

Finally, the economic contraction in Venezuela is estimated to have deepened in 2016 due to a free fall in oil production, shortages of consumer and intermediate goods, and widespread price and

deterioration in social conditions. In the rest of the region and with the exception of Ecuador, economies grew in 2016, although at a modest pace.

OUTLOOK | Will 2017 be a turning point for the region?2017 is expected to be a better year for Latin America, but important risks to the outlook loom on the horizon. The region is expected to return to growth this year before GDP rises steadily from 2018 to 2021. Following a 0.7% contraction in 2016, Latin America’s GDP is projected to increase 1.6% this year, which matches last month’s projection. With a 2.3 percentage-point upward swing from 2016 to 2017, the forecast suggests that the region is poised to experience the largest growth turnaround this year among the emerging markets. And yet, at 1.6% the region’s economic growth is far from its potential of 2.5%, which means that the recovery this year will be underwhelming. Moreover, it could be constrained further by new risks.

As the new year began, important risks began to materialize that are casting a shadow on the region’s economic outlook. Although

between the UK and the EU to reach an understanding about

markets and impact currencies in Latin America. Another key downside risk to the region’s growth prospects is a faster monetary policy tightening in the U.S. In the United States, an

will provide an extra boost to economic growth. Consequently, the Federal Reserve could tighten monetary policy faster than previously envisaged, as the economy remains in full employment

provoking another episode of exchange rate volatility in the region.

The impact of Trump’s actions and policies on Latin America will fall mostly on Mexico, given the deeply-integrated trade and business cycle links between the two countries. However, a serious disruption in trade seems unlikely, precisely because of their high level of economic integration. The rest of Latin America doesn’t appear to be on Trump’s radar, but there are risks that protectionist policies could damage some of the region’s agricultural exports to the U.S.

.

.Source: LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.Note: Change between January 2017 and February 2017 in percentage points.

Change in GDP Growth Forecasts20182017

-0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4

Peru

Mexico

Colombia

Andean Com.

Chile

Latin America

Brazil

Mercosur

Argentina

Venezuela

-0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2

Mexico

Peru

Andean Com.

Latin America

Colombia

Brazil

Mercosur

Argentina

Chile

Venezuela


Regional Outlook

Regional Executive Summary | OutlookThis section summarizes the region's growth prospects for the current and coming year analyzing the main drivers and risks to the outlook.

Change in GDP Growth Forecasts

This graph puts the forecasts into context showing the change in percentage points in the region's growth forecast compared to the previous month's projection.

Region In Focus



February 2017

Finally, this year should be another relevant political year for Latin America. Key elections are planned in Argentina in October, and presidential elections are scheduled for Ecuador in February and for Chile in November. Perhaps more importantly, this year will set the political stage for presidential elections in Colombia, Mexico, and Brazil in 2018.

ARGENTINA | Green shoots are starting to appearAlthough GDP is expected to have contracted again in Q4, there are some incipient signs of economic recovery. Stronger growth in the automotive and food sectors is shoring up industrial activity,

consumption has likely bottomed out. Moreover, the external

overall, though the strong rebound in exports seen in November

the previous year. Treasury Minister Nicolas Dujovne announced

of GDP, beating the government’s 4.8% target. Although the

2017, analysts are not optimistic about the prospects. The 2016 target was met mostly due to the positive effect of a tax amnesty, while elections this year could encourage government spending.

support private consumption, while the external sector will

reforms implemented by Macri’s administration will start to take off, buttressing business sentiment and propelling investment. Analysts foresee the economy expanding 3.0% this year, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 3.1% in 2018. (see details on page 21)

BRAZIL | Fiscal austerity measures on the cards Economic data have picked up from rock bottom, suggesting that the battered economy is nearing a recovery phase. Industrial production recorded the fastest growth in over two years in December, likely supporting a reduced fall in GDP in Q4. At the onset of 2017, signs of improvement continued to emerge, with

political front, Rodrigo Maia, an ally of President Michel Temer, was re-elected as speaker on 2 February, improving the prospects

to fast-track the badly needed pension reform, which is key to

be rocky on the political scene, however, as Temer tries to push through unpopular austerity measures and testimony from a massive corruption scandal is released, which is expected to implicate scores of politicians.

easier monetary policy should jumpstart growth this year. Yet, the recovery will be meagre as austerity measures hamper consumption. Analysts see GDP growth at 0.6% in 2017, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. The recovery is seen

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ArgentinaEconomic Growth Change in GDP forecasts




Key Country Highlights

Region Executive Summary | Focus CountriesAfter the executive summary of the region's state of play and outlook, the following sections contain written analysis on some of the most important economies in the region.

Link to Details on Specific Economy

These country summaries are excerpts from the individual country reports themselves. Links at the end of each country section allow for easy access to jump to the specific country report for more information.

Region In Focus



February 2017

gaining speed in 2018 and GDP should increase 2.2%. (see details on page 34)

COLOMBIA | Government begins talks with second largest rebel groupWhile recent monthly data suggest that the Colombia economy experienced a slight improvement in Q4, 2016 overall is likely to

by the collapse in global oil prices. In November and December

digit rates. However, in Q3, industrial production growth remained

further into pessimistic territory. On 7 February, the government began peace talks with Colombia’s second largest rebel group—the National Liberation Army (ELN). The negotiations come only a few months after the government secured a historic peace agreement with the FARC. If successful, the country could put an

were killed and millions were displaced.

GDP growth is likely to accelerate this year, supported by higher

under control. Analysts expect the economy to grow 2.4% in 2017, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2018, our panel projects economic growth of 3.1%. (see details on page 62)

MEXICO | Uncertainty is driving the outlookThe economy got off to a weak start to the year, following a mild

showed that GDP increased 2.2% year-on-year in Q4 (Q3: +2.0% yoy), causing the economy to expand 2.3% in the full year 2016. The result is below the 2.6% GDP growth achieved in 2015

alarming, the underlying trend suggests that Mexico’s economic growth is not robust enough. Recent survey-based data indicate

years in January and manufacturing PMIs continue to signal weakness in the sector.

The rising uncertainty related to the unclear path that trade and immigration policies will follow during the Trump administration will continue to drive Mexico’s future economic growth. However, domestic risks and social discontent are also rising in a year that will lay the ground for presidential elections in 2018. This month, analysts cut Mexico’s 2017 growth forecast by 0.2 percentage points to 1.6%. Next year, the panel expects GDP to expand 2.1%. (see details on page 76)

divergent paths were observed across the region. In South

most of the relevant currencies and high food costs as a result of adverse weather conditions. Accordingly, South American central banks maintained a tight monetary policy for most of 2016.

1.0

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MexicoEconomic Growth Change in GDP forecasts



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ColombiaEconomic Growth Change in GDP forecasts




Inflation Outlook

Regional Executive Summary | InflationThe final section gives a summary of the evolution of inflation at a regional level, along with its the drivers and outlook.

Region In Focus



February 2017

GDP Growth, 2017

Notes and sources

Note: Gross domestic product, real annual variation in %. Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

GDP per capita, 2017

Notes and sources

Note: GDP per capita in current USD.Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

Gross Domestic Product, annual variation in %

GDP per capita, USD

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Latin America 0.1 -0.7 1.6 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1

Chile 2.3 1.6 2.0 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.0Mexico 2.6 2.3 1.6 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7

Mercosur -2.3 -3.5 0.9 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.9Argentina 2.5 -2.3 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3Brazil -3.8 -3.5 0.6 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.7Paraguay 3.1 4.0 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0Uruguay 1.0 1.0 1.3 2.3 2.5 2.8 3.0Venezuela -5.7 -11.4 -3.9 -0.6 1.0 2.3 3.6

Andean Com. 2.8 2.0 2.6 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.6Bolivia 4.8 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7Colombia 3.1 1.9 2.4 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.6Ecuador 0.2 -2.2 0.1 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.2Peru 3.3 3.9 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Latin America 8,470 7,979 8,419 8,687 9,044 9,457 9,888

Chile 13,496 13,488 14,051 14,553 15,408 16,423 17,491Mexico 9,493 8,390 7,821 8,116 8,600 9,182 9,769

Mercosur 9,474 8,908 9,895 10,163 10,483 10,859 11,235Argentina 14,854 12,623 14,288 15,019 15,713 16,474 16,998Brazil 8,792 8,779 9,749 9,929 10,241 10,602 11,012Paraguay 4,098 4,002 4,145 4,408 4,657 4,899 5,134Uruguay 15,808 15,647 16,872 17,402 18,879 21,187 23,415Venezuela 6,931 4,891 5,212 5,393 5,150 4,932 4,719

Andean Com. 5,793 5,735 6,027 6,287 6,613 6,956 7,316Bolivia 3,086 3,254 3,454 3,652 3,823 3,992 4,168Colombia 6,045 5,888 6,294 6,625 7,072 7,587 8,128Ecuador 6,154 6,034 6,037 6,101 6,213 6,376 6,589Peru 6,149 6,200 6,504 6,784 7,096 7,333 7,560

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000

Bolivia

Paraguay

Venezuela

Andean Com.

Ecuador

Colombia

Peru

Mexico

Latin America

Brazil

Mercosur

Chile

Argentina

Uruguay

4,000

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Latin America Andean Com. Mercosur Argentina Brazil Mexico

2015 2016 2017 2018

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Ecuador

Brazil

Mercosur

Uruguay

Latin America

Mexico

Chile

Colombia

Andean Com.

Argentina

Paraguay

Bolivia

Peru

-4

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Latin America Andean Com. Mercosur Argentina Brazil Mexico

2015 2016 2017 2018


Key Indicator Data

Horizontal Bar Chart

This chart gives you a quick view of the expected best to worst economies in the current forecast year related to the indicator.

Indicator Summaries

This section contains data and charts related to the most important economic indicators for the region with each page covering to two indicators following a similar structure to this one on GDP & GDP per capita. The rest of the pages in this section are displayed in the following order:Indicators of the Real Sector of the economy, followed by Monetary Sector indicators and finally External Sector indicators.

Vertical Bar Chart

This chart provides a quick view of performance of the region, its sub-regions and key countries. Included in the chart are two years of observed data and two years of forecasts for each.

Summary Table

The macro data in these tables contain the historical data and forecasts allowing for a quick regional comparison on the specified indicator.

Region In Focus



February 2017

Mexico Chile

Overview | Spread in bps

Peru

Colombia

Argentina

Venezuela Uruguay

Brazil

Major Risk Indicators | EMBI Spreads and Sovereign Ratings

0

500

1,000

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2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

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EMBI + LatinPeru

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Peru

Mexico

Uruguay

Colombia

Brazil

Argentina

EMBI + Latin

Ecuador

Venezuela

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EMBI + LatinVenezuela

January December Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Ratings OutlookArgentina 469 455 B3 Stable B- Stable B StableBolivia - - Ba3 Negative BB Stable BB- StableBrazil 289 328 Ba2 Negative BB Negative BB NegativeChile 150 162 Aa3 Stable AA- Negative A+ NegativeColombia 211 227 Baa2 Stable BBB Negative BBB NegativeEcuador 590 647 B3 Stable B Stable B NegativeMexico 228 232 A3 Negative BBB+ Negative BBB+ NegativeParaguay - - Ba1 Stable BB Stable BB StablePeru 166 175 A3 Stable BBB+ Stable BBB+ StableUruguay 225 244 Baa2 Negative BBB Negative BBB- StableVenezuela 2,056 2,168 Caa3 Negative CCC Negative CCC -

Moody's S & P Fitch RatingsSovereign Spreads (bps)


Additional Relevant Data

Additional ContentThe content in the regional summary for each report may vary. The LatinFocus Consensus Forecast report contains additional data and charts on: - EMBI and sovereign ratings - Stock market performance - Cross exchange rate forecasts

Region In Focus

FOCUSECONOMICS


February 2017

Economic Release Calendar

Date Country Event14 February Brazil December Retail Sales14 February Chile Central Bank Meeting15 February Colombia January Consumer Confidence (**)16 February Brazil December Economic Activity (**)16 February Peru December Economic Activity17 February Brazil January Balance of Payments17 February Chile Q4 2016 National Accounts 17 February Colombia December Industrial Production18 February Brazil December Economic Activity (**)21 February Argentina January Merchandise Trade22 February Brazil Central Bank Meeting22 February Brazil February Consumer Confidence22 February Mexico December Economic Activity (IGAE)22 February Mexico Q4 2016 National Accounts (by Production)23 February Argentina January Industrial Production23 February Argentina February Consumer Confidence23 February Peru Q4 2016 National Accounts (**)24 February Argentina December Economic Activity24 February Brazil February Business Confidence24 February Colombia Central Bank Meeting (**)27 February Mexico January Merchandise Trade1 March Chile February Copper Prices (**)1 March Mexico February IMEF Manufacturing PMI1 March Mexico February IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI1 March Mexico January Remittances2 March Brazil March Markit Manufacturing PMI2 March Colombia January Exports2 March Mexico February Consumer Confidence2 March Peru February Consumer Prices2 March Peru February Business Confidence3 March Uruguay February Consumer Prices4 March Colombia February Consumer Prices5 March Chile February Business Confidence (**)6 March Ecuador February Consumer Prices (**)7 March Brazil Q4 2016 National Accounts7 March Venezuela February Car Sales (**)8 March Brazil January Industrial Production8 March Chile February Consumer Prices9 March Argentina February Consumer Prices9 March Chile February Consumer Confidence (**)9 March Mexico February Consumer Prices9 March Peru January Merchandise Trade9 March Peru Central Bank Meeting10 March Argentina February Consumer Prices10 March Brazil February Consumer Prices

(*) Preliminary estimate. (**) Approximate date.

Calendar


Economic Release Calendar Economic Release Calendar

Monitor developments with a forward-looking economic data release calendar containing the release dates of the essential national economic indicators - the so-called market movers.

Region In Focus



February 2017

Economic Indicators | 2012 - 2021

Annual Data 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Real SectorPopulation (million) 41.7 42.2 42.7 43.1 43.6 44.1 44.6 45.1 45.6 46.1GDP per capita (USD) 13,885 14,540 13,133 14,854 12,623 14,288 15,019 15,713 16,474 16,998GDP (USD bn) 579 614 560 641 550 630 670 708 751 784GDP (ARS bn) 2,638 3,348 4,579 5,854 8,127 10,596 12,849 14,916 16,842 18,580Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) 21.1 26.9 36.8 27.8 38.8 30.4 21.3 16.1 12.9 10.3Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) -1.0 2.4 -2.5 2.5 -2.3 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3Domestic Demand (annual var. in %) -1.3 4.0 -3.9 4.0 -1.4 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 1.1 3.6 -4.4 3.5 -1.6 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.4Government Consumption (annual var. in %) 3.0 5.3 2.9 6.8 1.1 2.1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) -7.1 2.3 -6.8 3.8 -4.3 7.3 7.4 6.3 5.6 4.8Industrial Production (annual variation in %) -7.8 0.0 -1.8 0.2 -4.6 3.0 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.7Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 7.2 7.1 7.3 7.2 8.9 8.5 8.1 7.5 7.0 6.5Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -2.1 -1.9 -2.4 -3.9 -4.7 -4.7 -3.9 -3.5 -3.0 -2.5Public Debt (% of GDP) 34.1 33.0 39.6 34.8 49.2 50.7 53.3 53.3 53.4 53.5Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M2 in %) 38.4 25.7 28.9 28.2 23.4 24.1 17.6 16.0 13.0 10.1Inflation (BA CPI, annual variation in %, eop) 10.8 26.6 38.0 26.9 41.0 21.5 14.8 11.0 8.4 5.8Inflation (BA CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 10.0 18.4 38.0 26.7 41.2 27.4 18.1 12.9 9.7 7.1Inflation (WPI, annual variation in %, eop) 13.1 14.8 28.3 - - - - - - -Lebac Rate 35 Days (%, eop) 12.4 15.1 26.9 33.0 24.8 19.7 14.7 12.0 10.7 9.3Central Bank 30-59 Days Dep. Rate (%, eop) 12.4 17.8 19.6 27.6 18.2 17.0 11.7 10.1 9.4 9.3Stock Market (MERVAL variation in %) 15.9 88.9 59.1 36.1 44.9 - - - - -Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, eop) 4.92 6.52 8.46 12.94 15.86 18.05 20.33 21.78 23.06 24.34Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, aop) 4.55 5.48 8.12 9.27 14.77 16.82 19.19 21.06 22.42 23.70External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -0.2 -2.0 -1.4 -2.6 -2.6 -2.8 -2.9 -2.9 -3.0 -3.2Current Account Balance (USD bn) -1.4 -12.1 -8.0 -16.8 -14.2 -17.4 -19.1 -20.3 -22.8 -25.2Trade Balance (USD bn) 12.0 1.5 3.2 -3.0 2.1 0.5 -0.1 -0.8 -1.4 -1.8Exports (USD bn) 80.0 76.0 68.4 56.8 57.7 61.5 65.2 69.4 74.1 79.3Imports (USD bn) 68.0 74.4 65.2 59.8 55.6 61.1 65.4 70.2 75.5 81.2Exports (annual variation in %) -3.6 -5.0 -9.9 -17.0 1.7 6.6 6.0 6.4 6.7 7.0Imports (annual variation in %) -8.1 9.5 -12.4 -8.4 -6.9 9.8 7.1 7.4 7.5 7.6Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 4.0 2.6 1.7 - - - - - - -International Reserves (USD bn) 43.3 30.6 31.4 25.6 38.8 44.0 47.3 52.7 59.9 67.2International Reserves (months of imports) 7.6 4.9 5.8 5.1 8.4 8.7 8.7 9.0 9.5 9.9External Debt (USD bn) 146 141 145 171 189 206 223 241 253 266External Debt (% of GDP) 25.1 23.1 25.8 26.6 34.4 32.8 33.3 34.0 33.7 33.9 Quarterly Data Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 3.8 2.6 0.6 -3.7 -3.8 -2.1 0.3 3.3 4.2 4.3Economic Growth (GDP, qoq s.a. var. in %) 0.1 -0.6 -0.8 -1.9 -0.2 - - - - -Domestic Demand (annual var. in %) 6.4 6.6 1.3 -1.4 -3.3 -1.8 1.7 3.7 4.6 4.5Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 5.4 2.7 2.2 -2.6 -3.1 -2.6 0.9 2.5 3.7 4.2Government Consumption (annual var. in %) 7.8 6.0 3.9 -1.3 1.9 0.5 1.5 2.1 2.3 2.0Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) 6.3 6.9 -1.7 -4.1 -8.3 -3.1 5.0 6.9 8.3 8.4Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 1.9 -0.4 -0.9 -5.4 -7.0 -5.1 1.3 2.9 3.6 3.8Unemployment (% of active population) 5.9 6.8 9.3 9.3 8.5 8.6 9.3 8.8 8.3 8.2Inflation (BA CPI, annual variation in %, eop) 24.0 26.9 35.0 47.1 43.1 41.0 32.2 23.5 23.3 21.5Lebac Rate 35 Days (%, eop) 26.0 33.0 38.0 30.8 26.8 24.8 23.2 21.6 20.5 19.7Central Bank 30-59 Days Dep. Rate (%, eop) 22.0 27.6 28.2 25.6 20.6 18.2 18.3 17.7 17.4 17.0Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, eop) 9.43 12.94 14.70 15.04 15.36 15.86 16.31 16.69 17.33 18.05Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, aop) 9.25 10.16 14.45 14.22 14.94 15.46 16.08 16.50 17.01 17.69Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -2.6 -2.9 -4.0 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 -3.2 -2.5 -2.6 -3.1Current Account Balance (USD bn) -4.2 -4.9 -4.7 -3.1 -3.0 -3.1 -4.7 -4.0 -4.0 -5.1Trade Balance (USD bn) -0.8 -1.7 -0.3 1.0 1.4 0.1 -0.6 1.0 0.6 -0.6Exports (USD bn) 15.9 12.5 12.4 15.4 15.8 14.1 13.2 16.8 16.8 14.6Imports (USD bn) 16.6 14.2 12.8 14.4 14.4 14.1 13.9 15.8 16.2 15.2 Monthly Data Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17Economic Activity (EMAE, annual var. in %) -3.1 -2.9 -4.9 -5.7 -2.0 -3.7 -4.4 -1.4 - -Industrial Production (annual variation in %) -5.2 -4.5 -6.4 -7.9 -5.7 -7.3 -8.0 -4.1 -2.3 -Cons. Confidence Index (50-point threshold) 43.2 42.7 42.6 45.6 42.6 43.3 46.0 43.9 44.5 44.5Inflation (BA CPI, mom variation in %) 6.5 4.2 3.1 2.0 0.2 1.1 2.4 1.6 1.2 1.3Inflation (BA CPI, annual variation in %) 40.5 44.4 47.1 47.2 43.5 43.1 44.7 44.8 41.0 -Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, eop) 14.29 13.98 15.04 15.00 14.93 15.36 15.16 15.86 15.86 15.90Trade Balance (USD bn) 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.1 -Exports (annual variation in %) -8.0 3.2 -12.6 -10.6 12.2 -2.8 -6.4 20.8 34.0 -Imports (annual variation in %) -11.8 -2.1 -11.3 -18.0 -7.1 -15.2 -2.1 -0.4 0.2 -


Historical Data and Forecasts

Summary Table | Annual Economic IndicatorsThe first summary table provides five years of historical data and five years of Consensus Forecast data.The data is broken up into three sections: - Real Sector of the economy - Monetary Sector - External Sector

Summary Table | Quarterly Economic Indicators Most country reports provide quarterly Consensus Forecasts for the current year and next year.

Summary Table | Monthly Economic IndicatorsHere you will find onthly indicators up to the month of the previous report.

Five-Year Consensus Forecast Data

Country In Focus

Five-Year Historical Data



February 2017

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

< 0.8 1.4 2.0 2.6 3.2 3.8 4.4 5.0 > 5.0

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product

1 | Real GDP | 2000-2021 | var. in %


2 | Real GDP | Q1 13-Q4 17 | var. in %. Real GDP growth in %


Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2021 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.1 GDP, annual variation in %. 2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %. 3 GDP, evolution of 2017 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2018 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2017 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in

%. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

Individual Forecasts 2017 2018ABECEB 3.5 3.5Analytica Consultora 5.0 4.0Banco de Galicia 3.5 -Banco Supervielle 3.6 4.2Barclays Capital 3.4 3.0BBVA Banco Francés 2.8 3.0BMI Research 3.2 3.6BTG Pactual 3.2 3.2Capital Economics 1.5 3.5Citigroup Global Mkts 2.5 2.0Credit Suisse 2.9 2.8C&T Asesores 3.5 3.8Deutsche Bank 2.7 3.1Ecolatina 3.0 2.4Econométrica 2.4 -EIU 2.5 3.7Elypsis 3.0 3.0Empiria Consultores 2.5 3.0Estudio Bein & Asoc. 4.8 -Euromonitor Int. 2.5 2.8FIEL 2.9 3.2Frontier Strategy Group 2.1 3.0Fundación Capital 3.1 -FyEConsult 2.5 1.0Gabriel Rubinstein y Asoc. 3.2 3.7Goldman Sachs 2.7 3.5Invecq Consulting 2.5 -Itaú BBA 2.7 3.0JPMorgan 3.2 3.3LCG 3.0 1.0M&F Consultora 3.4 3.6Nomura 3.6 3.5OJF & Asociados 3.5 2.1Oxford Economics 2.5 3.8Santander 3.0 4.5Société Générale 1.8 2.6Standard Chartered 3.0 3.6UBS 3.0 3.0UIA - CEU 2.0 -SummaryMinimum 1.5 1.0Maximum 5.0 4.5Median 3.0 3.2Consensus 3.0 3.1History30 days ago 3.0 3.160 days ago 3.0 3.290 days ago 3.2 3.3Additional ForecastsIMF (Oct. 2016) 2.7 2.8World Bank (Jan. 2017) 2.7 3.2CEPAL (Dec. 2016) 2.3 -

-12

-6

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2000 2005 2010 2015 2020


-6

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Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Q1 17


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-2

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5 | GDP 2017 | Panelist Distribution


Key Indicator Overview

Notes and SourcesLook here for clarification on time periods, sources and definitions.

3-Month History of the Consensus Forecast

This provides a quick view of the evolution of the forecasts in the previous 30, 60 and 90 days.

Summary of the Contributor Data

This includes the minimum, maximum, median and the Consensus. The Consensus is the arithmetic mean of the individual contributor data.

Additional Forecasts

For comparison purposes, we also include the forecasts from governmental offices and international institutions, however, these are not included in the calculation of our Consensus Forecast.

Panelist Distribution

This graph contains the contributor spread visualized in a bar chart, showing where the highest and lowest concentrations of forecasts fell.

Country In Focus



February 2017

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

9 | Investment | evol. of forecasts

2

4

6

8

10


2017 2018

8 | Investment | variation in %

-40

-20

0

20

40

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Argentina

Latin America

7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst

1

2

3

4


2017 2018

6 | Consumption | variation in %

-20

-10

0

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2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

ArgentinaLatin America

Consumption Investmentvariation in % variation in %

Individual Forecasts 2017 2018 2017 2018ABECEB - - - -Analytica Consultora 3.1 4.0 15.6 15.0Banco de Galicia 3.5 - 8.7 -Banco Supervielle - - - -Barclays Capital - - 5.8 10.0BBVA Banco Francés 2.2 2.9 9.0 7.0BMI Research 3.9 3.0 6.0 7.0BTG Pactual 3.0 3.1 9.9 7.8Capital Economics - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts 2.3 1.8 4.4 3.7Credit Suisse 3.1 3.0 5.0 5.0C&T Asesores 3.9 4.3 7.8 5.0Deutsche Bank 3.5 3.6 4.5 4.0Ecolatina 2.7 2.2 8.0 8.5Econométrica 2.3 - 5.5 -EIU 2.3 3.5 6.2 4.9Elypsis - - - -Empiria Consultores 1.7 2.9 6.4 7.5Estudio Bein & Asoc. 2.7 - 15.0 -Euromonitor Int. - - - -FIEL 2.4 3.6 9.4 7.5Frontier Strategy Group 2.5 2.8 - -Fundación Capital 3.6 - 4.5 -FyEConsult 2.9 0.9 3.5 0.2Gabriel Rubinstein y Asoc. 3.1 4.2 9.1 11.0Goldman Sachs - - - -Invecq Consulting 2.5 - - -Itaú BBA - - - -JPMorgan - - - -LCG 3.6 2.0 7.0 5.0M&F Consultora - - - -Nomura 3.5 3.7 6.5 7.0OJF & Asociados 3.9 2.2 4.9 9.7Oxford Economics 2.0 3.5 5.6 8.3Santander 3.1 3.8 7.7 15.5Société Générale 1.9 2.4 3.8 4.4Standard Chartered - - - -UBS 3.4 3.0 9.0 8.5UIA - CEU - - - -SummaryMinimum 1.7 0.9 3.5 0.2Maximum 3.9 4.3 15.6 15.5Median 3.0 3.0 6.4 7.2Consensus 2.9 3.0 7.3 7.4History30 days ago 2.9 3.0 7.3 7.360 days ago 2.9 3.1 7.8 7.290 days ago 3.2 3.3 8.5 7.6

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2021 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.6 Private consumption, annual variation in %. 7 Private consumption, evolution of 2017 and 2018 forecasts during the last 18 months.8 9

Consumption and Investment


Key Indicator Overview

Evolution of Forecast Charts (7 & 9)These charts show how the Consensus Forecast of the macroeconomic indicator has changed in the last 18 months (history of the forecasts).These graphs in particular show how the Consensus Forecast (for this year and next) for the indicator has changed in the last 18 months.

Country In Focus




February 2017

Fact Sheet

Argentina in the Region

Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America

Argentina12.4%

Brazil34.9%

Mexico22.3%

Colombia5.7%

Chile4.7%

Other20.0%

Argentina7.1%

Brazil33.5%

Mexico19.9%

Colombia7.9%

Peru5.1%

Other26.5%

U.S.A.12.9%

Other EU-2811.6%

Germany5.2% Other Asia

ex-Japan7.4%

China19.7%

Other LatAm11.0%

Brazil21.9%

Other10.4%

U.S.A.6.0%

EU-2814.5%

Other Asia ex-Japan

14.3%

China9.1%

Other LatAm16.7%

Brazil17.8%

MENA8.3%

Other13.2%

Other6.8%

Manufact. Products77.8%

Mineral Fuels15.3%

Other7.4%

Manufact. Products32.2%

Mineral Fuels5.3%

Food55.1%

Trade Structure

Primary markets | share in %

Primary products | share in %

Economic Structure

GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %

Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

0

20

40

60

80

1002006-08 2009-11 2012-14

Net Exports

Investment

GovernmentConsumption

PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002006-08 2009-11 2012-14

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data

Economic Infrastructure

Political Data

Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings

Strengths Weaknesses

• Well educated labor force • Rapid shift in economic policy• Rich in natural resources • Vulnerability to external shocks• Competitive exchange rate

.

• High inflation rate

Energy (2012)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 3,115Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 3,665Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 128Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 117Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 723Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 737CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 196

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: B3 StableS&P Global Ratings: B- StableFitch Ratings: B Stable

Telecommunication (2014) Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 23.0Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 159Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 59.9Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 15.6

Transportation (2013) Airports: 1,138Railways (km): 36,917Roadways (km): 231,374Waterways (km): 11,000Chief Ports: Buenos Aires, Bahía Blanca

Official name: Argentine RepublicCapital: Buenos Aires (13.0 m)Other cities: Córdoba (1.5 m)

Rosario (1.2 m)Area (km2): 2,780,400Population (million, 2016 est.): 43.6Population density (per km2, 2016): 15.7Population growth rate (%, 2016 est.): 1.1Life expectancy (years, 2016 est.): 77.1Illiteracy rate (%, 2015): 1.9Language: SpanishMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT-3

President: Mauricio MacriLast elections: 22 November 2015Next elections: 2019Central Bank President: Federico Sturzenegger

Essential Reference Information at a Glance

Succinct country background information with key political, demographic and geographic data complement the economic and financial data summaries in each country forecast and provide you with an up to date reference source.

Fact Sheet

Country In Focus

www.focus-economics.com

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Consensus Forecast Report Overview

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