LatinFocus Consensus Forecast - July 2013

© FocusEconomics 2013ISSN 2013-648X

FOCUSECONOMICSEconomic Forecasts from the World’s Leading Economists

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LATIN FOCUS CONSENSUS FORECAST

ContentsSummary ...................................................... 3

Calendar ..................................................... 18

Argentina .................................................... 19

Brazil ........................................................... 32

Chile ............................................................ 47

Colombia .................................................... 61

Mexico ........................................................ 75

Peru............................................................. 91

Venezuela ................................................. 101

Other Countries ....................................... 110

Bolivia .................................................. 110

Ecuador ............................................... 113

Paraguay ............................................. 116

Uruguay ............................................... 119

Notes......................................................... 125

Order Form ............................................... 126

. .

July 2013

Next edition: 13 August 2013

Publication date: 16 July 2013

Information available: up to and including 15 July 2013

Forecasts collected: 10 July - 13 July 2013

Arne Pohlman Ángel Talavera Ricardo Aceves Mateusz ReimannChief Economist Senior Economist Senior Economist Economist

Armando Ciccarelli Ricard Torné Joan Enric Domene Pamela PoglianiHead of Research Senior Economist Economist Economist

..

FOCUSECONOMICS Summary

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 2

July 2013

Forecast Summary | Major Economies and Latin America

Gross Domestic Product, ann. var. in %

Fiscal Balance, % of GDP

Consumer Prices, ann. var. in %

Current Account Balance, % of GDP

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014World -6.0 -5.0 -4.5 -3.7 -3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

United States -8.9 -8.6 -6.9 -4.9 -3.9 -3.1 -3.0 -2.8 -2.8 -2.8Euro area -6.2 -4.2 -3.7 -2.9 -2.5 0.0 0.1 1.3 1.8 1.9Japan -9.5 -10.0 -10.2 -9.9 -8.2 3.7 2.0 1.0 0.8 1.4China -1.7 -1.1 -1.6 -1.9 -1.7 4.0 1.9 2.3 2.5 2.4Latin America -2.3 -2.2 -2.3 -2.3 -2.1 -1.3 -1.3 -1.8 -2.2 -2.1

Central America -3.5 -3.0 -3.0 -3.2 -3.1 -4.7 -6.7 -6.2 -6.6 -6.4Chile -0.3 1.5 0.6 -0.1 -0.2 1.5 -1.3 -3.5 -4.2 -3.9Mexico -2.8 -2.5 -2.6 -2.1 -2.0 -0.2 -0.9 -1.0 -1.2 -1.3

Mercosur -2.2 -2.5 -2.7 -2.8 -2.6 -1.3 -1.0 -1.4 -1.8 -1.9Argentina 0.2 -1.6 -2.4 -2.3 -2.4 0.4 -0.5 0.0 -0.1 -0.2Brazil -2.5 -2.6 -2.5 -2.6 -2.4 -2.2 -2.1 -2.4 -3.1 -3.0Paraguay 1.4 0.8 -1.9 -0.9 -0.4 -0.4 1.2 0.4 -0.7 -1.3Uruguay -1.2 -0.6 -2.0 -1.9 -1.7 -1.9 -2.9 -5.3 -3.1 -2.3Venezuela -3.6 -4.0 -4.9 -4.6 -3.9 3.7 7.7 2.9 4.1 3.3

Andean Com. -2.1 -0.7 -0.1 -0.8 -0.8 -2.5 -2.1 -2.5 -3.1 -2.8Bolivia 1.7 0.8 1.8 1.3 0.7 3.9 1.4 7.6 3.6 4.6Colombia -3.5 -2.1 -1.3 -1.6 -1.5 -3.1 -2.9 -3.2 -3.4 -3.2Ecuador -1.5 -0.9 -0.5 -2.3 -1.8 -2.4 -0.3 -0.3 -1.7 -0.9Peru -0.3 1.9 2.1 1.0 0.7 -2.5 -1.9 -3.6 -4.2 -4.0

Fiscal Balance, % of GDP Current Account, % of GDP

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014World 4.4 3.1 2.5 2.6 3.5 2.7 3.9 2.8 2.6 3.0

United States 2.4 1.8 2.2 1.9 2.7 1.6 3.1 2.1 1.6 1.9Euro area 2.0 1.5 -0.6 -0.6 0.9 1.6 2.7 2.5 1.5 1.5Japan 4.7 -0.6 1.9 1.6 1.5 -0.7 -0.3 0.0 0.0 1.8China 10.5 9.3 7.8 7.7 7.8 3.3 5.4 2.6 2.9 3.4Latin America 6.3 4.3 2.8 3.0 3.5 6.6 7.1 6.1 7.0 6.7

Central America 4.1 5.2 5.0 4.2 4.3 5.2 5.7 4.0 4.7 4.6Chile 5.8 5.9 5.6 4.6 4.6 3.0 4.4 1.5 2.4 2.9Mexico 5.3 3.9 3.9 2.9 3.9 4.4 3.8 3.6 3.7 3.7

Mercosur 7.0 3.8 1.6 2.4 2.8 8.4 9.1 8.2 9.9 9.4Argentina 9.2 8.9 1.9 3.3 2.5 10.9 9.5 10.8 10.3 11.5Brazil 7.5 2.7 0.9 2.5 3.0 5.9 6.5 5.8 5.9 5.8Paraguay 13.1 4.3 -1.2 11.0 4.3 7.2 4.9 4.0 4.4 5.0Uruguay 9.0 6.5 3.9 3.7 3.8 6.9 8.6 7.5 8.1 7.3Venezuela -1.5 4.2 5.6 -0.2 1.9 27.4 29.0 19.5 36.0 29.2

Andean Com. 5.2 6.7 4.8 4.6 5.0 3.0 4.3 2.8 2.9 3.1Bolivia 4.1 5.2 5.2 4.9 4.8 7.2 6.9 4.5 5.0 4.7Colombia 4.0 6.6 4.0 4.0 4.6 3.2 3.7 2.4 2.6 3.1Ecuador 2.9 7.4 5.0 4.2 4.3 3.3 5.4 4.2 4.4 4.0Peru 8.8 6.9 6.3 5.8 6.0 2.1 4.7 2.6 2.5 2.4

Real GDP, annual variation in % Consumer Prices, annual variation in %

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

World United States Euro area Japan China Latin America

2011 2012 2013 2014

-12

-9

-6

-3

0


2011 2012 2013 2014

-2

0

2

4

6

8


2011 2012 2013 2014

-4

-2

0

2

4

United States Euro area Japan China Latin America

2011 2012 2013 2014



July 2013

SummaryThe growth outlook for Latin America deteriorated again this month, continuing the downward trend observed since June last year. LatinFocus panellists cut their forecast for regional GDP growth in 2013 by 0.2 percentage points over the last month to 3.0%. As in the previous three months, the deterioration primarily reflects downward revisions to the growth forecast for Brazil and Mexico, which account for more than 60% of the regional output. In addition, prospects for Chile, Colombia, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela were also revised down, whereas those of Argentina, Bolivia and Ecuador were left unchanged. Only the growth forecast for Paraguay was revised up (to a far-above-average 11.0%), as the economy bounces back strongly from a 1.2% contraction last year. The panel also cut regional prospects for 2014 by 0.2 percentage points over last month, with forecasters now projecting growth to pick up to 3.5%.

The deteriorating outlook for the region comes within a global context of lower growth forecasts for the Eurozone and the BRIC economies, which more than offset upward revisions to Japan and the United Kingdom. The outlook for the United States remained unchanged over the previous month, with news mostly focused on the possible timing and pace of the Federal Reserve’s exit strategy from its quantitative easing (QE) programme. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke indicated on 19 June that monetary authorities may start tapering the QE program later this year, triggering tensions in financial markets that temporarily drove yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries to the highest levels in three years.

The Eurozone remains deeply mired in recession, with record unemployment and the persistent fiscal drag in most member states overshadowing the outlook, even though some forward-looking indicators are showing first signs of hope. Meanwhile, analysts are increasingly optimistic that the economic stimulus policies implemented by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in Japan will succeed in jolting the economy from its long-lasting slump. In China, GDP growth slowed further in the second quarter (albeit to a still robust 7.5% annual growth rate), fuelling concerns that the global growth engine will falter in the second half of the year.

In Brazil, politics took centre stage, as a wave of protests swept across the country. Initially the protests began with peaceful demonstrations against a hike in public transport fare in Sao Paolo. However, the turmoil quickly spread to

Regional outlook deteriorates

Change in 2013 GDP Growth Forecast

-0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1

Chile

Brazil

Mercosur

Latin America

Mexico

Venezuela

Peru

Uruguay

Andean Com.

Colombia

Ecuador

Argentina

Bolivia

Paraguay

.Source: LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.Note: Change between July and June 2013 in percentage points.



July 2013

other cities, forcing Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff to make a public pledge ensuring improvements to transport, health care and education. After the first wave of discontent quieted, the country’s main labour unions seized the opportunity and called for a one-day nationwide general strike on 11 July to support their demands for improved working conditions and better public services. In contrast to the previous spontaneous demonstrations, the so-called “National Day of Struggles” remained largely peaceful. However, the waves of discontent had a negative effect on the Brazilian real, which dropped to its lowest level since mid-2009. Recent economic data add to the gloomier picture. Industrial production contracted in May and retail sales were flat in the same month. Moreover, forward-looking indicators such as business and consumer confidence declined in June, suggesting another quarter of sluggish economic growth. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panellists expect Brazilian GDP to grow 2.5% this year, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s estimate. This month’s cut to Brazil’s GDP growth forecast comes on top of a downward revision of the same magnitude the month before, thus slicing off more than half a percentage point from the country’s expected 2013 GDP growth in just two months. For next year, the panel also revised down its projections and now sees growth at 3.0%, which is down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month’s forecast.

Reflecting the global headwinds, the Mexican economy is showing signs of a slowdown. In the first quarter, GDP expanded at the slowest pace since 2009, and while economic activity grew at a faster-than-expected pace in April, the reading was partly boosted by calendar effects. More recent data point to softer-than-expected growth in the second quarter. Exports declined in May and manufacturing confidence fell to the lowest level in four years in June. Similarly, consumer sentiment fell to its lowest level in 18 months, contrasting market expectations, which had the index improving. Against this backdrop, LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panellists lowered their growth projections for this year by 0.2 percentage points over last month and now expect the Mexican economy to grow 2.9%. For next year, the panel sees growth accelerating to 3.9%.

Regional inflation rose from a revised 6.9% in May to 7.2% in June. The stronger regional print mainly reflects higher inflation in Venezuela, which jumped from 33.7% in May to 37.3%, continuing the rapid upward trajectory in place since November last year, when inflation was less than half the current rate. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panellists expect regional inflation to close the year at 7.0%, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2014, panellists forecast inflation to end the year at 6.7%.

Arne PohlmanChief Economist

Change in 2013 Inflation Forecast

-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

Ecuador

Bolivia

Paraguay

Andean Com.

Mexico

Chile

Colombia

Peru

Argentina

Uruguay

Brazil

Latin America

Mercosur

Venezuela

.Source: LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.Note: Change between July and June 2013 in percentage points.



July 2013

The growth outlook for Latin America deteriorated again this month, reflectingdownward revisions to Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay andVenezuela. Only projections for Paraguay were revised up, while prospects forthe remaining for economies were unchanged.

GDP 3.0 ↓ 3.5 ↓

The regional inflation forecast for this year jumped 0.2 percentage points over thelast month, mainly reflecting higher projections for Brazil, Uruguay andVenezuela. Inflation estimates for Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador and Paraguay werecut.

Inflation 7.0 ↑ 6.7 ↑

The government efforts to contain the depreciation of the peso in the blackmarket were successful, as the unofficial currency remained stable throughoutlast month. In recent days, however, the unofficial peso weakened slightly, amidstronger demand for U.S. dollars ahead of the winter holidays. Meanwhile, amid arecent spike in the price of bread, the government is planning to implement a lawwhich forces holders of wheat suitable for bread making to sell their stocks in thedomestic market, under the threat of fines or jail. The unconventional moverepresents yet another attempt by Argentinian authorities to combat the country’schronic high inflation.

GDP 3.3 = 2.5 ↓

In June, official inflation rose to 10.5% from 10.3% in May. Inflation 10.3 = 11.5 ↑

Recent indicators suggest the economy continued to expand at a robust pace inthe second quarter, as economic activity increased 6.8% over the same monthlast year in April, which was above the 5.1% expansion observed in March.Against this backdrop, on 8 July, Central Bank President Marcelo Zabalagastated that he sees GDP growth at 5.5% this year. Earlier in June, Bolivia’sPresident Evo Morales announced that growth may even reach 7.0% in 2013.

GDP 4.9 = 4.8 ↑

Inflation inched up from 4.7% in May to 4.8% in June. Inflation 5.0 ↓ 4.7 =

In June, a wave of protests that had initially began peacefully in Sao Paulo over ahike in public transport fares, spread across the country. Demonstrations quicklyescalated afterwards, forcing President Dilma Rousseff to make a pledge toimprove public funds management, transport, health care and education. Socialdisturbances had a negative effect on the Brazilian real, which is currently tradingat its lowest level in four years. Recent economic data add to the gloomy picture.Industrial production fell in May, while retail sales were flat in the same month.

GDP 2.5 ↓ 3.0 ↓

Inflation rose from 6.5% in May to 6.7% in June, the highest level in 20 months.At its 10 July meeting, the Central Bank raised the benchmark SELIC interest rateby 50 basis points to 8.50%.

Inflation 5.9 ↑ 5.8 ↑

Economic activity expanded 3.5% in May, which was down from the 4.4%expansion in April. Similarly, forward-looking indicators point to slower growth inthe months ahead, with consumer confidence dropping to a six-month low in Mayand business confidence falling to the lowest level in more than four years in Q2.On the political front, former president Michelle Bachelet from the Socialist Partyhas won the country’s first-ever primary presidential elections and will be facingconservative candidate and former Minister of Economy Pablo Longueira in thepresidential elections in November.

GDP 4.6 ↓ 4.6 =

Inflation in June rose to 1.9% from 1.0% in May. At its 11 July policy meeting, theCentral Bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 5.00%. Inflation 2.4 = 2.9 =

The economy lost some steam in the first quarter, with GDP expanding 2.8% overthe same period last year, down from the 3.1% rise witnessed in the last quarterof 2012. The slowdown was the result of a weaker performance of domesticdemand. More recent data paint a mixed picture, as industrial productionexpanded the most in 20 months in April and consumer confidence hit its highestlevel in over one year in June, whereas exports declined for the fourthconsecutive month in May.

GDP 4.0 ↓ 4.6 ↓

In June, inflation rose to 2.2% from 2.0% in May. At its latest meeting on 28 June,the Central Bank left the policy rate unchanged at 3.25%. Inflation 2.6 ↓ 3.1 =

.

ForecastsCurrent Developments2013 2014

Latin America

Argentina

Brazil

Chile

Colombia

Bolivia



July 2013

The Ecuadorean government is seeking financing from China to fund a planned24% increase in public spending this year. According to Finance Minister FaustoHerrera, the first disbursement of a USD 1.4 billion loan is expected next month,but it is not yet known whether it will be tied to oil sales or will be granted directly.Simultaneously, the government is planning to issue foreign bonds beginning inthe first quarter of 2014, in order to finance next year’s budget.

GDP 4.2 = 4.3 =

In June, inflation fell to 2.7% from 3.0% in May. Inflation 4.4 ↓ 4.0 =

Economic activity picked up more than expected in April. However, the Aprilreading was partly inflated by calendar effects. Both the external and thedomestic sector are currently showing signs of fatigue, as a decline in exports inMay points to a soft start to the second quarter, while manufacturing confidencefell to the lowest level in four years in June. In addition, consumer sentiment fellshort of expectations in June and fell to its lowest level in 18 months.

GDP 2.9 ↓ 3.9 ↓

Inflation fell from 4.6% in May to 4.1% in June. Meanwhile, at its 12 July meeting,Banxico left interest rates unchanged at 4.00%. Inflation 3.7 = 3.7 =

In the first quarter, the economy expanded an impressive 14.8% over the sameperiod last year, which contrasted the 0.9% decline registered in the last quarterof 2012. The result mainly reflected a whopping 32.2% increase in fixedinvestment as well as a rebound in exports. In addition, recent data point toanother quarter of solid growth, with economic activity expanding 19.9% in April,which was above the 12.1% increase tallied in March.

GDP 11.0 ↑ 4.3 =

Inflation rose from 0.9% in May to 1.7% in June. Inflation 4.4 ↓ 5.0 =

Forward-looking indicators point to different directions, with consumer confidencerising in June and business sentiment falling to its lowest level in almost twoyears in the same month. Meanwhile, on 8 July, the government announced thatLuis Miguel Castilla will remain in office as the country’s Economy and FinanceMinister after an upcoming cabinet reshuffle that is traditionally carried out aroundPeruvian Independence Day, on 28 July.

GDP 5.8 ↓ 6.0 ↓

Inflation rose from 2.5% in May to 2.8% in June. At its 11 July meeting, theCentral Bank left the policy rate unchanged at 4.25%. Inflation 2.5 = 2.4 ↓

On 27 June, the Central Bank announced a change in its monetary policystrategy with the aim of better fighting inflation within a context of massive inflowsof foreign capital. The Central Bank switched its focus to controlling monetaryaggregates rather than using a single monetary policy rate. The Bank set a targetof 12.5% to 13.0% annual growth for money supply (measured as M1+) for thethird quarter of this year, and will gradually lower this target rate until reaching 8%by Q2 2015. Meanwhile, industrial production deteriorated in May, as output -excluding the La Teja refinery’s contribution - contracted 1.6% annually,contrasting the strong 14.1% expansion recorded in the previous month.

GDP 3.7 ↓ 3.8 ↓

In June, inflation inched up to 8.2% from 8.1% in May. Inflation 8.1 ↑ 7.3 ↑

On 11 July, the Central Bank resumed operations in the alternative Sicad foreignexchange system, in an attempt to boost the supply of U.S. dollars in order tofacilitate access to imports and combat the shortage of goods that affects theeconomy. Under the new version of the Sicad, individuals and companies, alongwith the government and the Central Bank, will be able to buy and sell U.S.dollars via a foreign-exchange auction system. According to some analysts, thenew system, which will run alongside the official Cadivi, will likely sell U.S. dollarsat a rate of more than twice the official exchange rate of VEF 6.30 per USD.Meanwhile, the economy remains depressed, with car sales suffering thesharpest fall in over three years in June.

GDP -0.2 ↓ 1.9 ↓

Inflation soared from 33.7% in May to 37.3% in June, the highest level seen sinceFebruary 2003. Inflation 36.0 ↑ 29.2 ↑

.

Peru

Venezuela

Current Developments (continued) Forecasts2013 2014

Uruguay

Mexico

Ecuador

Paraguay

Note: Arrows and equal sign denote changes in Consensus Forecast over last month.



July 2013

GDP Growth, 2013

Notes and sources

Note: Gross domestic product, real annual variation in %. Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

GDP per capita, 2013

Notes and sources

Note: GDP per capita in current USD.Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

Gross Domestic Product, annual variation in %

GDP per capita, USD

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Latin America 4.3 2.8 3.0 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.9

Chile 5.9 5.6 4.6 4.6 4.8 4.8 4.7Mexico 3.9 3.9 2.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9

Mercosur 3.8 1.6 2.4 2.8 2.9 3.3 3.5Argentina 8.9 1.9 3.3 2.5 3.0 3.4 3.7Brazil 2.7 0.9 2.5 3.0 3.0 3.4 3.5Paraguay 4.3 -1.2 11.0 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.4Uruguay 6.5 3.9 3.7 3.8 4.1 4.1 4.2Venezuela 4.2 5.6 -0.2 1.9 2.2 2.7 2.9

Andean Com. 6.7 4.8 4.6 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.3Bolivia 5.2 5.2 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.9Colombia 6.6 4.0 4.0 4.6 4.7 4.9 4.9Ecuador 7.4 5.0 4.2 4.3 4.0 4.3 4.3Peru 6.9 6.3 5.8 6.0 5.9 6.3 6.3

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Latin America 9,912 9,785 10,138 10,580 11,045 11,565 12,130

Chile 14,668 15,400 16,367 16,911 17,745 19,074 20,436Mexico 10,171 10,258 11,463 12,452 13,263 13,936 14,677

Mercosur 12,019 11,451 11,441 11,738 12,060 12,523 13,032Argentina 10,975 11,590 11,267 9,928 9,716 9,790 9,581Brazil 12,697 11,462 11,633 12,072 12,537 12,886 13,455Paraguay 3,695 3,534 4,076 4,332 4,501 4,684 4,864Uruguay 13,951 15,084 16,772 17,658 19,046 20,269 21,623Venezuela 10,606 12,527 11,488 13,045 13,130 14,843 15,956

Andean Com. 6,050 6,579 6,927 7,296 7,829 8,342 8,898Bolivia 2,253 2,421 2,609 2,802 3,004 3,219 3,445Colombia 7,304 7,910 8,144 8,441 9,042 9,690 10,351Ecuador 5,184 5,557 5,957 6,344 6,757 7,232 7,740Peru 5,904 6,535 7,103 7,656 8,285 8,744 9,315

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000

Bolivia

Paraguay

Ecuador

Andean Com.

Peru

Colombia

Latin America

Argentina

Mercosur

Mexico

Venezuela

Brazil

Chile

Uruguay

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Latin America Andean Com. Mercosur Argentina Brazil Mexico

2011 2012 2013 2014

-3 0 3 6 9 12

Venezuela

Mercosur

Brazil

Mexico

Latin America

Argentina

Uruguay

Colombia

Ecuador

Chile

Andean Com.

Bolivia

Peru

Paraguay

0

2

4

6

8

10


2011 2012 2013 2014



July 2013

Consumption Growth, 2013

Notes and sources

Note: Total consumption, real annual variation in %. Data for Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Uruguay and Venezuela refer to private consumption.Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

Investment Growth, 2013

Notes and sources

Note: Gross fixed investment, real annual variation in %.Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

Consumption, annual variation in %

Investment, annual variation in %

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Latin America 5.1 4.0 3.2 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.2

Chile 7.9 5.8 5.2 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.9Mexico 4.4 3.3 3.3 4.0 4.6 4.2 4.4

Mercosur 5.1 3.8 2.6 3.2 3.3 3.6 3.7Argentina 10.7 4.4 3.3 2.8 3.5 4.0 4.0Brazil 4.1 3.1 2.9 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7Paraguay 8.2 3.1 6.0 5.0 4.5 4.6 5.8Uruguay 8.9 6.6 4.8 4.0 4.4 4.4 4.2Venezuela 4.0 7.0 -0.9 1.9 1.9 2.6 3.5


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Latin America 8.1 3.0 4.7 5.5 6.0 6.0 6.1

Chile 14.7 12.3 6.7 6.4 7.6 7.5 6.8Mexico 8.1 5.9 4.4 6.4 6.8 6.5 6.7

Mercosur 6.3 -0.5 3.7 4.4 4.9 5.2 5.4Argentina 16.6 -5.0 3.0 2.4 3.0 4.7 4.9Brazil 4.7 -4.0 4.6 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.5Paraguay 11.0 -7.7 15.9 10.5 14.0 10.8 11.1Uruguay 5.5 19.4 5.7 4.3 4.6 5.1 5.2Venezuela 4.4 23.3 -2.0 0.6 3.0 4.4 4.7


-5 0 5 10 15 20

Venezuela

Argentina

Mercosur

Mexico

Brazil

Latin America

Bolivia

Uruguay

Ecuador

Chile

Colombia

Andean Com.

Peru

Paraguay

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20


2011 2012 2013 2014

-2 0 2 4 6 8

Venezuela

Mercosur

Brazil

Latin America

Argentina

Mexico

Colombia

Ecuador

Bolivia

Uruguay

Andean Com.

Chile

Paraguay

Peru

2

4

6

8

10

12


2011 2012 2013 2014



July 2013

Industrial Production Growth, 2013

Notes and sources

Note: Industrial production, real annual variation in %.Sources: National statistical institutes.

Retail Sales, 2013

Notes and sources

Note: Retail sales, real annual variation in %.Sources: National statistical institutes.

Industrial Production, annual variation in %

Retail Sales, annual variation in %

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Latin America 3.0 0.1 2.5 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7

Chile 8.0 2.3 2.8 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.4Mexico 4.0 3.6 2.5 4.0 4.1 3.8 3.9

Mercosur 1.5 -1.7 2.4 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.3Argentina 6.5 -1.2 2.5 2.2 2.5 3.1 3.3Brazil 0.4 -2.6 2.7 3.4 3.2 3.3 3.3Paraguay 0.2 4.1 4.6 4.1 3.8 4.1 4.3Uruguay 0.5 5.8 4.1 4.9 4.0 4.0 4.0Venezuela 3.8 1.8 -0.3 1.3 2.5 2.8 3.2

Andean Com. 6.4 0.3 2.9 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.2Bolivia 4.6 4.9 6.8 7.2 8.4 9.0 10.0Colombia 4.8 0.0 1.5 3.6 4.0 4.1 4.2Ecuador 15.7 -2.0 5.7 6.8 4.3 4.6 4.4Peru 5.6 1.3 3.7 5.0 6.4 6.8 6.7

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Latin America 6.2 7.1 3.5 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.8

Chile 3.2 7.4 5.7 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.2Mexico 3.5 3.7 2.9 3.7 3.6 3.8 3.9Brazil 6.7 8.4 5.1 5.4 5.1 5.2 5.1Colombia 7.8 4.2 4.0 4.9 5.1 5.6 5.7Peru 8.8 6.7 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.9 7.0

2 4 6 8

Mexico

Latin America

Colombia

Brazil

Chile

Peru

2

4

6

8

10

Latin America Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru

2011 2012 2013 2014

-2 0 2 4 6 8

Venezuela

Colombia

Mercosur

Latin America

Mexico

Argentina

Brazil

Chile

Andean Com.

Peru

Uruguay

Paraguay

Ecuador

Bolivia

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8


2011 2012 2013 2014



July 2013

Unemployment, 2013

Notes and sources

Note: Unemployment rate as % of active population (for details see notes in country).Sources: National statistical institutes.

Fiscal Balance, 2013

Notes and sources

Note: Argentina: Non-financial public sector.Brazil: Public sector borrowing requirement.Chile: Central government.Colombia: Central government.Ecuador: Non-financial public sector.Mexico: Non-financial public sector.Peru: Non-financial public sector.Venezuela: Non-financial central government.Sources: National statistical institutes and finance ministries.

Unemployment, % of active population

Fiscal Balance, % of GDP

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Latin America 6.5 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.2 6.1 6.0

Chile 7.2 6.5 6.5 6.7 6.3 6.3 6.2Mexico 5.2 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.2

Mercosur 6.4 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.5 6.4 6.4Argentina 7.2 7.2 7.6 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.6Brazil 6.0 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.9 5.8 5.8Paraguay 6.0 7.9 5.8 5.8 5.6 5.5 5.3Uruguay 6.3 6.3 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.3Venezuela 8.2 7.8 8.8 8.7 8.7 8.5 8.3


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Latin America -2.2 -2.3 -2.3 -2.1 -2.0 -1.8 -1.7

Chile 1.5 0.6 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1Mexico -2.5 -2.6 -2.1 -2.0 -1.9 -1.7 -1.6

Mercosur -2.5 -2.7 -2.8 -2.6 -2.4 -2.3 -2.1Argentina -1.6 -2.4 -2.3 -2.4 -2.2 -1.7 -1.4Brazil -2.6 -2.5 -2.6 -2.4 -2.4 -2.3 -2.2Paraguay 0.8 -1.9 -0.9 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3Uruguay -0.6 -2.0 -1.9 -1.7 -1.4 -1.3 -1.3Venezuela -4.0 -4.9 -4.6 -3.9 -3.4 -3.2 -2.7

Andean Com. -0.7 -0.1 -0.8 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3Bolivia 0.8 1.8 1.3 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1Colombia -2.1 -1.3 -1.6 -1.5 -1.3 -1.1 -1.0Ecuador -0.9 -0.5 -2.3 -1.8 -1.9 -2.2 -2.0Peru 1.9 2.1 1.0 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.2

-6 -4 -2 0 2

Venezuela

Mercosur

Brazil

Argentina

Latin America

Ecuador

Mexico

Uruguay

Colombia

Paraguay

Andean Com.

Chile

Peru

Bolivia

-3

-2

-1

0


2011 2012 2013 2014

4 6 8 10

Mexico

Brazil

Paraguay

Ecuador

Latin America

Mercosur

Uruguay

Chile

Peru

Bolivia

Argentina

Andean Com.

Venezuela

Colombia

4

6

8

10


2011 2012 2013 2014



July 2013

Inflation, 2013

Notes and sources

Note: End-of-year variation of consumer price index in %.Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

Interest Rate, 2013

Notes and sources

Note: Nominal end-of-year interest rates in %. Argentina: Central Bank 30-59 days deposit rate.Bolivia: Prime lending rate.Brazil: SELIC rate.Chile: Monetary policy rate.Colombia: Central Bank intervention rate. Ecuador: 91-120 days deposit rate.Mexico: 1-day target interbank rate.Paraguay: Certificate of deposit 180 days.Peru: Monetary policy rate.Uruguay: TPM policy interest rate.Venezuela: 90-day average deposit rate.Sources: National central banks.

Inflation, variation of consumer prices in %

Interest Rate, %2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Latin America 8.91 7.19 7.94 7.99 8.22 8.37 8.44Chile 5.25 5.00 4.71 4.58 4.68 4.70 4.73Mexico 4.50 4.50 3.95 4.09 4.54 5.19 5.71



2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Latin America 7.1 6.1 7.0 6.7 6.2 5.9 5.9

Chile 4.4 1.5 2.4 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0Mexico 3.8 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.5



0 5 10 15 20

Colombia

Mexico

Andean Com.

Peru

Ecuador

Chile

Latin America

Brazil

Uruguay

Mercosur

Bolivia

Paraguay

Venezuela

Argentina

0

5

10

15

20


2011 2012 2013 2014

2

4

6

8

10

12


2011 2012 2013 2014 0 10 20 30 40

Chile

Peru

Colombia

Andean Com.

Mexico

Ecuador

Paraguay

Bolivia

Brazil

Latin America

Uruguay

Mercosur

Argentina

Venezuela



July 2013

Depreciation versus USD, 2013

Notes and sources

Note: Annual variation of national currencies versus USD in %. Positive number means currency is losing value against USD. Regional aggregates provided only as indicative information.Sources: Central banks and Thomson Reuters.

Current Account Balance, 2013

Notes and sources

Note: Current account balance as % of GDP. Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

Exchange Rates vs. USD, annual variation in %

Current Account Balance, % of GDP2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Latin America -1.3 -1.8 -2.2 -2.1 -2.1 -2.0 -2.0Chile -1.3 -3.5 -4.2 -3.9 -2.9 -3.0 -2.8Mexico -0.9 -1.0 -1.2 -1.3 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4

Mercosur -1.0 -1.4 -1.8 -1.9 -1.8 -1.7 -1.8Argentina -0.5 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6Brazil -2.1 -2.4 -3.1 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0Paraguay 1.2 0.4 -0.7 -1.3 -2.3 -2.0 -2.2Uruguay -2.9 -5.3 -3.1 -2.3 -3.0 -2.8 -2.5Venezuela 7.7 2.9 4.1 3.3 4.3 4.2 3.9

Andean Com. -2.1 -2.5 -3.1 -2.8 -2.6 -2.4 -2.3Bolivia 1.4 7.6 3.6 4.6 4.1 3.7 3.3Colombia -2.9 -3.2 -3.4 -3.2 -3.1 -3.0 -2.8Ecuador -0.3 -0.3 -1.7 -0.9 -1.4 -1.4 -2.0Peru -1.9 -3.6 -4.2 -4.0 -3.1 -2.8 -2.5

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Latin America 9.2 2.5 6.3 4.9 3.5 3.4 3.7

Chile 11.0 -7.9 4.5 2.9 -1.1 0.0 -0.4Mexico 12.9 -7.8 -4.4 -0.9 1.0 1.4 0.6

Mercosur 10.2 9.0 11.7 9.2 6.3 5.7 6.7Argentina 7.8 13.9 22.2 24.8 6.4 16.3 14.4Brazil 12.3 9.9 4.4 3.0 4.8 3.8 2.6Paraguay -3.1 -3.1 -1.2 3.1 2.3 3.0 2.7Uruguay 0.0 -3.6 5.9 4.9 4.0 2.5 3.3Venezuela 0.0 0.0 46.8 30.4 15.7 7.7 22.6

Andean Com. -0.7 -6.3 4.6 -0.1 -0.9 0.1 0.0Bolivia -1.4 1.4 -0.8 0.0 -2.3 -1.0 -0.6Colombia 1.0 -8.8 6.8 0.1 -0.7 0.0 0.0Ecuador - - - - - - -Peru -3.9 -5.3 3.4 -0.3 -1.4 0.4 0.0

-6 -3 0 3 6

Peru

Chile

Colombia

Andean Com.

Uruguay

Brazil

Latin America

Mercosur

Ecuador

Mexico

Paraguay

Argentina

Bolivia

Venezuela

-15 0 15 30 45 60

Mexico

Paraguay

Bolivia

Ecuador

Peru

Brazil

Chile

Andean Com.

Uruguay

Latin America

Colombia

Mercosur

Argentina

Venezuela

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1


2011 2012 2013 2014

-10

0

10

20

30


2011 2012 2013 2014



July 2013

Export Growth, 2013

Notes and sources

Note: Nominal annual variation in % of merchandise exports.Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

Import Growth, 2013

Notes and sources

Note: Nominal annual variation in % of merchandise imports. Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

Exports, annual variation in %

Imports, annual variation in %

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Latin America 23.9 1.6 3.8 7.1 8.3 8.5 8.1

Chile 14.6 -3.9 4.0 5.3 5.3 5.5 6.4Mexico 17.1 6.1 5.6 8.1 10.5 9.9 9.5

Mercosur 28.3 -2.7 1.4 5.6 6.8 7.3 7.7Argentina 23.3 -3.7 5.9 3.6 4.3 6.0 6.7Brazil 26.8 -5.3 1.2 7.9 8.8 9.2 9.2Paraguay 20.6 -5.3 8.1 5.7 17.1 4.3 9.0Uruguay 15.5 6.7 3.5 8.1 6.2 8.5 8.7Venezuela 41.2 4.9 -3.0 1.0 2.1 3.0 3.6

Andean Com. 35.5 5.0 4.5 9.8 8.9 8.1 6.4Bolivia 30.4 33.0 11.8 11.0 10.6 8.7 7.6Colombia 44.4 5.7 5.3 11.7 9.1 6.6 5.9Ecuador 27.6 6.5 7.9 5.9 5.0 5.9 -3.1Peru 30.1 -1.4 -0.1 8.9 10.4 11.3 11.4

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Latin America 22.3 4.4 6.0 7.3 8.8 8.6 8.2

Chile 27.8 5.6 5.8 5.3 5.5 6.7 7.2Mexico 16.4 5.7 7.0 8.6 10.8 10.1 9.8

Mercosur 25.3 1.2 4.7 6.0 7.6 7.7 7.9Argentina 30.9 -7.8 8.5 4.6 5.0 7.2 7.5Brazil 24.5 -1.4 6.8 7.0 8.7 8.5 8.4Paraguay 22.4 -5.3 16.4 8.0 17.1 9.0 9.9Uruguay 25.1 14.5 0.6 5.0 4.6 5.1 6.3Venezuela 21.5 26.8 -9.0 3.8 4.8 5.2 5.7

Andean Com. 29.0 8.5 6.9 8.6 8.9 8.9 6.3Bolivia 36.9 7.9 12.2 9.8 11.0 9.1 8.5Colombia 34.0 9.0 5.0 10.5 10.1 8.5 6.9Ecuador 17.9 3.7 8.3 3.9 4.8 6.8 -5.4Peru 28.3 10.9 7.6 8.6 9.1 10.6 11.5

-16 -8 0 8 16 24

Venezuela

Uruguay

Mercosur

Colombia

Chile

Latin America

Brazil

Andean Com.

Mexico

Peru

Ecuador

Argentina

Bolivia

Paraguay

-10

0

10

20

30

40


2011 2012 2013 2014

-5 0 5 10 15

Venezuela

Peru

Brazil

Mercosur

Uruguay

Latin America

Chile

Andean Com.

Colombia

Mexico

Argentina

Ecuador

Paraguay

Bolivia

-10

0

10

20

30

40


2011 2012 2013 2014



July 2013

International Reserves, 2013

Notes and sources

Note: International reserves as months of imports.Sources: Central banks.

External Debt, 2013

Notes and sources

Note: External debt as % of GDP.Sources: National statistical institutes, central banks and finance ministries.

International Reserves, months of imports

External Debt, % of GDP

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Latin America 8.9 9.3 9.1 8.9 8.5 8.2 8.0

Chile 7.1 6.7 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.3 6.2Mexico 4.9 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.1 5.0



2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Latin America 19.6 21.2 21.1 20.9 20.9 20.6 20.3

Chile 39.3 44.2 41.0 40.6 39.2 37.7 36.6Mexico 18.2 19.4 17.8 17.0 18.7 18.4 18.2



10 20 30 40 50

Brazil

Mexico

Ecuador

Mercosur

Latin America

Colombia

Andean Com.

Paraguay

Peru

Argentina

Bolivia

Venezuela

Uruguay

Chile

10

15

20

25

30

35


2011 2012 2013 2014

0 5 10 15 20

Ecuador

Paraguay

Mexico

Venezuela

Argentina

Chile

Colombia

Latin America

Andean Com.

Uruguay

Mercosur

Peru

Brazil

Bolivia

0

5

10

15

20

25


2011 2012 2013 2014



July 2013

Mexico Chile

Overview | Spread in bps

Peru

Colombia

Argentina

Venezuela Uruguay

Brazil

Major Risk Indicators | EMBI Spreads and Sovereign Ratings

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

EMBI + LatinArgentina

0

250

500

750

1,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

EMBI + LatinColombia

0

250

500

750

1,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

EMBI + LatinPeru

0 500 1,000 1,500

Chile

Peru

Colombia

Uruguay

Brazil

Mexico

EMBI + Latin

Ecuador

Venezuela

Argentina

0

250

500

750

1,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

EMBI + LatinChile

0

250

500

750

1,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

EMBI + LatinMexico

0

250

500

750

1,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

EMBI + LatinBrazil

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

EMBI + LatinUruguay

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

EMBI + LatinVenezuela

June May Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Ratings OutlookArgentina 1,199 1,167 B3 Negative B- Negative CC -Bolivia - - Ba3 Stable BB- Stable BB- StableBrazil 243 208 Baa2 Positive BBB Negative BBB StableChile 177 137 Aa3 Stable AA- Stable A+ StableColombia 193 167 Baa3 Stable BBB Stable BBB- PositiveEcuador 665 626 Caa1 Stable B Stable B- PositiveMexico 223 196 Baa1 Stable BBB Positive BBB+ StableParaguay - - Ba3 Stable BB- Stable BB- StablePeru 201 159 Baa2 Positive BBB Positive BBB StableUruguay 235 173 Baa3 Positive BBB- Stable BBB- StableVenezuela 976 878 B2 Negative B Negative B+ Negative

Moody's S & P Fitch RatingsSovereign Spreads (bps)



July 2013

Mexico Chile

Overview | month-on-month var. in %

Peru

Colombia

Argentina Brazil

Major Stock Markets | Performance in %

Last Month Last 3 Months Last 12 Months YTD Last Month Last 3 Months Last 12 Months YTDArgentina -3.3 -2.1 16.7 0.5 -14.7 -12.0 26.8 4.3Brazil -12.6 -18.4 -14.1 -19.5 -11.3 -15.8 -12.7 -22.1Chile -4.6 -15.5 -11.9 -12.0 -4.0 -8.5 -5.8 -5.7Colombia -3.3 -15.1 -9.4 -20.9 -3.9 -9.2 -4.4 -12.8Mexico -3.6 -11.7 4.9 -6.5 -2.3 -7.8 1.1 -7.1Peru -10.3 -28.4 -24.8 -30.3 -3.1 -21.7 -23.0 -24.6Venezuela - - - - 20.8 59.3 292.1 109.5Latin America -9.1 -16.5 -9.5 -16.1 - - - -Emerging Markets -6.8 -9.1 0.3 -10.9 - - - -World -3.1 -1.2 14.0 4.7 - - - -

MSCI Price Indices (USD) National Benchmark Stock Indices (local currencies)June 2013

0

50

100

150

200

Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13

Latin AmericaArgentina

50

100

150

200


Latin AmericaColombia

40

60

80

100

120


Latin AmericaBrazil

60

80

100

120

140

160


Latin AmericaMexico

-15 -10 -5 0

Brazil

Peru

Latin America

Emerging Markets

Chile

Mexico

Argentina

Colombia

World

60

80

100

120

140

160


Latin AmericaChile

60

80

100

120

140

160


Latin AmericaPeru



July 2013

United States

Japan

Brazil

Colombia

Peru

Euro Area

Argentina

Chile

Mexico

Venezuela

Cross Exchange Rate Forecasts | Year end

U.S. Dollar (USD) 2011 2012 2013 2014United States - - - -Japan 77.0 86.7 105.9 108.6Euro Area 0.77 0.76 0.78 0.80Argentina 4.29 4.88 5.97 7.44Brazil 1.86 2.05 2.14 2.20Chile 520 479 500 515Colombia 1,939 1,767 1,887 1,888Mexico 13.95 12.87 12.30 12.19Peru 2.70 2.55 2.64 2.63Venezuela 4.30 4.30 6.31 8.23

Japanese Yen (JPY,100) 2011 2012 2013 2014United States 1.30 1.15 0.94 0.92Japan - - - -Euro Area 1.00 0.87 0.74 0.74Argentina 5.57 5.63 5.63 6.85Brazil 2.42 2.36 2.02 2.03Chile 675 552 472 474Colombia 2,519 2,037 1,781 1,738Mexico 18.13 14.83 11.61 11.22Peru 3.50 2.94 2.49 2.42Venezuela 5.59 4.96 5.96 7.58

Brazilian Real (BRL) 2011 2012 2013 2014United States 0.54 0.49 0.47 0.45Japan 41.3 42.3 49.5 49.3Euro Area 0.41 0.37 0.37 0.36Argentina 2.30 2.38 2.79 3.38Brazil - - - -Chile 279 234 234 234Colombia 1,040 863 882 857Mexico 7.49 6.28 5.75 5.53Peru 1.45 1.25 1.23 1.19Venezuela 2.31 2.10 2.95 3.74

Colombian Peso (COP, 1000) 2011 2012 2013 2014United States 0.52 0.57 0.53 0.53Japan 39.7 49.1 56.1 57.5Euro Area 0.40 0.43 0.42 0.42Argentina 2.21 2.76 3.16 3.94Brazil 0.96 1.16 1.13 1.17Chile 268 271 265 273Colombia - - - -Mexico 7.20 7.28 6.52 6.45Peru 1.39 1.44 1.40 1.39Venezuela 2.22 2.43 3.35 4.36

Peruvian Nuevo Sol (PEN) 2011 2012 2013 2014United States 0.37 0.39 0.38 0.38Japan 28.5 34.0 40.1 41.3Euro Area 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.30Argentina 1.59 1.91 2.26 2.83Brazil 0.69 0.80 0.81 0.84Chile 193 188 190 196Colombia 719 692 715 718Mexico 5.18 5.04 4.66 4.63Peru - - - -Venezuela 1.59 1.68 2.39 3.13

Euro (EUR) 2011 2012 2013 2014United States 1.30 1.32 1.28 1.25Japan 100 114 135 136Euro Area - - - -Argentina 5.57 6.44 7.61 9.32Brazil 2.42 2.70 2.73 2.76Chile 674 631 639 645Colombia 2,516 2,330 2,408 2,365Mexico 18.12 16.96 15.70 15.26Peru 3.50 3.37 3.37 3.29Venezuela 5.58 5.67 8.06 10.31

Argentine Peso (ARS) 2011 2012 2013 2014United States 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.13Japan 17.9 17.8 17.8 14.6Euro Area 0.18 0.16 0.13 0.11Argentina - - - -Brazil 0.43 0.42 0.36 0.30Chile 121 98 84 69Colombia 452 362 316 254Mexico 3.25 2.63 2.06 1.64Peru 0.63 0.52 0.44 0.35Venezuela 1.00 0.88 1.06 1.11

Chilean Peso (CLP, 100) 2011 2012 2013 2014United States 0.19 0.21 0.20 0.19Japan 14.81 18.12 21.17 21.09Euro Area 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.16Argentina 0.83 1.02 1.19 1.45Brazil 0.36 0.43 0.43 0.43Chile - - - -Colombia 373 369 377 367Mexico 2.69 2.69 2.46 2.37Peru 0.52 0.53 0.53 0.51Venezuela 0.83 0.90 1.26 1.60

Mexican Peso (MXN) 2011 2012 2013 2014United States 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.08Japan 5.51 6.74 8.61 8.91Euro Area 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.07Argentina 0.31 0.38 0.49 0.61Brazil 0.13 0.16 0.17 0.18Chile 37.2 37.2 40.7 42.3Colombia 139 137 153 155Mexico - - - -Peru 0.19 0.20 0.21 0.22Venezuela 0.31 0.33 0.51 0.68

Venezuelan Bolívar (VEF) 2011 2012 2013 2014United States 0.23 0.23 0.16 0.12Japan 17.90 20.17 16.78 13.20Euro Area 0.18 0.18 0.12 0.10Argentina 1.00 1.14 0.95 0.90Brazil 0.43 0.48 0.34 0.27Chile 121 111 79 63Colombia 451 411 299 229Mexico 3.25 2.99 1.95 1.48Peru 0.63 0.59 0.42 0.32Venezuela - - - -

FOCUSECONOMICS


July 2013

Economic Release Calendar

Date Country Event18 July Mexico June Unemployment19 July Argentina May Economic Activity19 July Colombia May Industrial Production19 July Ecuador Q1 2013 Unemployment22 July Argentina July Consumer Confidence23 July Argentina June Merchandise Trade23 July Brazil July Consumer Confidence (**)23 July Brazil June Balance of Payments25 July Brazil July Business Confidence (**)25 July Mexico May Economic Activity (IGAE)26 July Colombia Central Bank Meeting26 July Mexico June Merchandise Trade (**)28 July Chile June Unemployment 1 August Brazil June Industrial Production1 August Chile July Copper Prices1 August Mexico June Remittances1 August Mexico July IMEF Manufacturing PMI1 August Paraguay July Consumer Prices1 August Peru July Consumer Prices2 August Uruguay July Consumer Prices5 August Chile June Economic Activity5 August Colombia July Consumer Prices5 August Mexico July Consumer Confidence6 August Venezuela July Consumer Prices (**)7 August Brazil July Consumer Prices7 August Ecuador July Consumer Prices7 August Mexico Q2 2013 Inflation Report7 August Venezuela July Car Sales (**)8 August Chile July Consumer Prices8 August Colombia July Consumer Confidence (**)8 August Colombia June Exports (**)8 August Mexico July Consumer Prices8 August Peru Central Bank Meeting9 August Ecuador June Economic Activity9 August Mexico June Industrial Production9 August Mexico June Merchandise Trade9 August Venezuela August OPEC Oil Market Report9 August Peru June Merchandise Trade9 August Peru July Business Confidence10 August Chile July Consumer Confidence (**)12 August Uruguay June Industrial Production13 August Chile Central Bank Meeting

(*) Preliminary estimate. (**) Approximate date.

Calendar

FOCUSECONOMICS Argentina


July 2013

Argentina

REAL SECTOR | GDP picks up in Q1In the first quarter, GDP growth rose 3.0% over the same period last year, marking an improvement over the 2.1% expansion recorded in Q4 2012.

The faster expansion in Q1 was driven by an improvement in domestic demand, which more than compensated for a deterioration in the external sector. Private consumption added 6.1% over the same quarter last year, which was above the 4.5% increase recorded in Q4. Meanwhile, gross fixed investment rebounded from a 1.9% drop in Q4 to a 1.3% expansion in Q1.

Exports of goods and services dropped 8.5% (Q4: -12.5% year-on-year), while imports rose 6.2% (Q4: -2.1% yoy). As a result, the external sector’s net contribution to overall growth fell from minus 1.2 percentage points in Q4 to minus 1.9 percentage points in Q1. A quarter-on-quarter analysis corroborates the positive year-on-year reading, as GDP rose 1.5% over the previous quarter in seasonally adjusted terms, mirroring the result recorded in Q4. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panellists see GDP expanding 3.3% this year, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2014, panellists expect the economy to grow 2.5%.

REAL SECTOR | Economic activity expands at fastest level since November 2011In April, the monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE, Estimador Mensual de Actividad Economica) rose 7.0% over the same month last year, which came in above the revised 2.8% expansion registered in March (previously

The government efforts to contain the depreciation of the peso in the black market were successful, as the unofficial currency remained stable throughout last month. In recent days, however, the unofficial peso weakened slightly, amid stronger demand for U.S. dollars ahead of the winter holidays. Meanwhile, amid a recent spike in the price of bread, the government is planning to implement a law which forces holders of wheat suitable for bread making to sell their stocks in the domestic market, under the threat of fines or jail. The unconventional move represents yet another attempt by Argentinian authorities to combat the country’s chronic high inflation.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panellists expect the economy to grow 3.3% this year, which is unchanged over last month’s projection. Next year, the panel sees GDP expanding 2.5%.

In June, official inflation rose to 10.5% from 10.3% in May. Panellists see official inflation at 10.3% by the end of 2013 and at 11.5% by the end of 2014. Meanwhile, the panel sees unofficial inflation ending this year at 26.1% and 2014 at 28.9%.

Outlook stable

LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages

Armando CiccarelliHead of Research

Argentina

2009-11 2012-14 2015-17Population (million): 40.1 41.5 42.9GDP (USD bn): 374 453 416GDP per capita (USD): 9,305 10,928 9,696GDP growth (%): 6.2 2.6 3.4Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -0.7 -2.3 -1.8Public Debt (% of GDP): 45.3 41.4 38.2Inflation (%): 8.8 10.4 10.3Current Account (% of GDP): 1.1 -0.1 -0.5External Debt (% of GDP): 34.8 31.3 37.3

Gross Domestic Product | variation in %

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.Source: Argentina National Statistical Institute (INDEC) and LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

Q2 2009 Q2 2010 Q2 2011 Q2 2012 Q2 2013

%



July 2013

reported: +2.9% yoy). Moreover, the print overshot market expectations of a 4.1% rise.

Compared to the previous month, economic activity rose 0.5% in seasonally adjusted terms, which represents a deceleration over the 0.8% rise tallied in March. Reflecting the higher annual print, annual average growth in economic activity rose from 1.4% in March to 1.9% in April.

OUTLOOK | Consumer sentiment rebounds in JuneIn June, the Universidad Torcuato di Tella (UTDT) consumer confidence index rose 6.8% over the previous month to 44.5 points. The result contrasted the 5.5% drop recorded in May, when the index fell to its lowest level in more than three years. Despite picking up in June, consumer sentiment remains well below the 50-point threshold that separates optimism from pessimism.

The improvement was broad-based, but was mostly driven by households’ more optimistic expectations regarding the general economy in the short run (12 months), which soared to the highest level in almost three years. In contrast, households’ willingness to purchase durable goods deteriorated compared to May.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panellists see private consumption growing 3.3% this year, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. Next year, panellists expect consumption to expand 2.8%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation picks up in JuneAccording to official figures, in June consumer prices for the Great Buenos Aires area added 0.8% over the previous month, which was above the 0.7% increase recorded in May. Higher prices for healthcare as well as for household equipment and maintenance were the main drivers behind the price increase. As a result of the monthly rise, annual headline inflation inched up from 10.3% in May to 10.5% in June. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panellists see official inflation at 10.3% by the end of 2013, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. Next year, participants estimate official inflation will end the year at 11.5%.

Official inflation data published by the National Statistics Institute (INDEC) have been met with suspicion ever since a controversial methodological change was implemented in 2008. These statistical issues have caused Argentina to become the first country ever to be censured by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for not supplying accurate economic data, under a procedure that could force Argentina’s government into “compulsory withdrawal” from the IMF. The government has repeatedly denied allegations that INDEC data are manipulated and went a step further in March 2011, fining a number of consulting firms for publishing their own inflation estimates.

Since 2011 a group of opposition lawmakers has been collecting independent inflation estimates in order to develop an alternative monthly inflation gauge. According to this so-called “Congress Index” (IPC-Congreso), consumer prices increased 1.63% over the previous month in June (May: +1.57% month-on-month) and annual inflation rose from 23.4% in May to 24.0% in June. Independent analysts surveyed by LatinFocus expect consumer prices to increase 26.1% in 2013, which is unchanged over last month’s estimates. For 2014, analysts see inflation accelerating to 28.9%.

Consumer Confidence

Note: Monthly consumer confidence index. Values above 50 indicate an optimistic assesment in consumer sentiment while values below 50 indicate a pessimistic assesment.Source: Universidad Torcuato di Tella (UTDT).

40

45

50

55

60

Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13

Inflation | Consumer Price Index

Note: Annual and monthly var. of consumer price index in %.Source: Argentina National Statistical Institute (INDEC).

8.5

9.5

10.5

11.5

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13

Month-on-month (left scale)

Year-on-year (right scale)

%%

Individual Forecasters 2012 2013 2014Panellist A 24.0 24.7 23.7Panellist B 23.9 24.8 27.6Panellist C 25.6 28.0 35.0Panellist D 25.7 24.0 33.7Panellist E 25.2 26.0 30.0Panellist F 25.2 27.8 26.7Panellist G 25.6 19.7 23.5Panellist H 23.8 23.0 24.5Panellist I 25.6 25.5 26.5Panellist J 25.2 24.9 26.3Panellist K 25.4 26.5 30.0Panellist L 25.6 30.0 35.0Panellist M 23.5 23.6 25.8Panellist N 25.4 32.3 29.7Panellist O 24.0 28.7 34.6Panellist P 23.7 24.0 30.0Panellist Q 30.0 30.0 -Consensus 25.1 26.1 28.930 days ago 25.2 26.1 28.860 days ago 25.2 26.2 28.890 days ago 25.2 27.0 27.4

.

Non-Official Inflation

Note: Non-official inflation estimates, based on annual variation of consumer prices in %. Individual panellist names no longer displayed because the Argentinean government fines institutions that publish independent inflation estimates based on a different methodology than INDEC.Source: LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.



July 2013

EXTERNAL SECTOR | Exports accelerate further in MayIn May, exports expanded 13.6% over the same month last year, which followed the 12.7% increase tallied in April and marked the largest rise since December 2011. The improvement reflects stronger soy and corn exports, as production of the two commodities has rebounded this year after a drought negatively affected harvests in 2012.

Despite the stronger figure, in the 12 months up to May, exports declined 1.8% over the corresponding period last year, which, nevertheless, marks an improvement compared to the 3.8% drop recorded in April.

Meanwhile, imports rose 17.3% in May (April: +32.0% year-on-year). As a result, in the 12 months up to May, imports stepped up to a 1.6% contraction, up from the 3.7% drop seen in the 12 months up April.

Finally, the trade balance registered a surplus of USD 1.3 billion in May, whereas the 12-month moving sum of the trade balance was unchanged at April’s USD 10.5 billion. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panellists expect that exports will expand 5.9% in 2013, pushing them to a record of USD 85.7 billion. For 2014, the panel expects exports to grow 3.6%.

Merchandise Trade

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the12-month sum of exports and imports in %.Source: Argentina Central Bank.

-40

0

40

80

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

May-10 Nov-10 May-11 Nov-11 May-12 Nov-12 May-13

%

Trade Balance (USD bn, left scale)

Exports (yoy, right scale)

Imports (yoy, right scale)



July 2013

Economic Indicators | 2008 - 2017

Annual Data 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Real SectorPopulation (million) 39.2 39.7 40.1 40.6 41.0 41.5 42.0 42.4 42.9 43.4GDP per capita (USD) 8,326 7,753 9,186 10,975 11,590 11,267 9,928 9,716 9,790 9,581GDP (USD bn) 327 308 369 445 475 467 417 412 420 415Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 6.8 0.9 9.2 8.9 1.9 3.3 2.5 3.0 3.4 3.7Domestic Demand (annual var. in %) 8.5 -1.0 11.3 10.7 1.9 4.0 3.2 3.4 4.0 4.2Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 6.5 0.5 9.0 10.7 4.4 3.3 2.8 3.5 4.0 4.0Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) 9.1 -10.2 21.2 16.6 -5.0 3.0 2.4 3.0 4.7 4.9Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 5.0 0.1 9.7 6.5 -1.2 2.5 2.2 2.5 3.1 3.3Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 7.9 8.7 7.8 7.2 7.2 7.6 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.6Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 1.4 -0.6 0.2 -1.6 -2.4 -2.3 -2.4 -2.2 -1.7 -1.4Public Debt (% of GDP) 48.8 48.8 45.3 41.8 44.9 39.1 40.1 39.6 38.0 37.1Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M2 in %) 14.1 14.6 34.6 29.8 38.4 32.8 28.6 26.6 23.1 20.6Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) 7.2 7.7 10.9 9.5 10.8 10.3 11.5 10.1 10.1 10.5Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 8.6 6.3 10.5 9.8 10.0 10.4 10.8 10.5 10.1 10.3Inflation (WPI, annual variation in %, eop) 8.8 10.3 14.6 12.7 13.1 - - - - -Central Bank 30-59 Days Dep. Rate (%, eop) 15.1 9.4 10.1 13.3 12.4 16.4 16.9 16.5 16.7 17.1Stock Market (MERVAL variation in %) -49.8 115.0 51.8 -30.1 15.9 - - - - -Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, eop) 3.43 3.81 3.98 4.29 4.88 5.97 7.44 7.92 9.20 10.53Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, aop) 3.16 3.73 3.91 4.13 4.55 5.27 6.70 7.68 8.56 9.87External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 2.1 3.6 0.4 -0.5 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6Current Account Balance (USD bn) 6.8 11.0 1.4 -2.4 0.1 -0.4 -1.0 -1.5 -2.2 -2.4Trade Balance (USD bn) 12.6 16.9 11.4 9.7 12.4 11.4 10.9 10.9 10.7 10.7Exports (USD bn) 70.0 55.7 68.2 84.1 80.9 85.7 88.8 92.6 98.2 104.8Imports (USD bn) 57.5 38.8 56.8 74.3 68.5 74.4 77.8 81.7 87.6 94.2Exports (annual variation in %) 25.1 -20.5 22.5 23.3 -3.7 5.9 3.6 4.3 6.0 6.7Imports (annual variation in %) 28.5 -32.5 46.4 30.9 -7.8 8.5 4.6 5.0 7.2 7.5International Reserves (USD bn) 46.4 48.0 52.2 46.4 43.3 38.3 35.1 33.3 35.9 38.9International Reserves (months of imports) 9.7 14.9 11.0 7.5 7.6 6.2 5.4 4.9 4.9 5.0External Debt (USD bn) 125 116 129 141 141 141 142 148 158 160External Debt (% of GDP) 38.2 37.6 35.1 31.6 29.7 30.1 34.2 35.8 37.6 38.6 Quarterly Data Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 0.7 2.1 3.0 4.0 3.5 2.5 2.2 2.6 2.5 2.7Economic Growth (GDP, qoq s.a. var. in %) 0.7 1.5 1.5 - - - - - - -Domestic Demand (annual var. in %) 0.7 3.1 4.8 4.5 3.9 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.5 4.0Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 2.1 4.5 6.1 3.7 2.9 0.9 1.8 2.2 2.9 4.7Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) -3.5 -1.9 1.3 3.2 3.7 3.8 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.0Industrial Production (annual variation in %) -2.5 -0.9 -1.3 3.8 3.6 4.2 1.7 3.1 1.4 1.2Unemployment (% of active population) 7.6 6.9 7.9 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.9 7.9 8.0Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) 10.0 10.8 10.6 10.5 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.8 11.1 11.5Central Bank 30-59 Days Dep. Rate (%, eop) 11.8 12.4 12.1 15.8 16.2 16.4 15.5 16.0 16.8 16.9Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, eop) 4.67 4.88 5.09 5.33 5.64 5.97 6.41 6.75 6.93 7.44Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, aop) 4.61 4.80 5.02 5.24 5.50 5.80 6.19 6.58 6.84 7.19Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 0.2 -0.1 -0.5 0.2 0.1 -0.6 -1.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.4Current Account Balance (USD bn) 0.7 -0.6 -2.4 1.1 0.2 -2.7 -4.6 -0.9 -0.5 1.5Trade Balance (USD bn) 3.6 2.2 1.3 4.3 3.3 2.9 2.4 3.9 2.9 2.1Exports (USD bn) 22.1 19.8 17.4 23.4 23.4 21.9 19.2 23.2 23.6 22.3Imports (USD bn) 18.6 17.6 16.1 19.2 20.1 19.0 16.8 19.2 20.7 20.2 Monthly Data Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13Economic Activity (EMAE, annual var. in %) -0.7 3.1 1.9 1.3 3.6 2.3 2.8 7.0 - -Industrial Production (annual variation in %) -4.4 2.2 -1.4 -3.4 0.1 -4.4 0.2 1.7 5.2 -Cons. Confidence Index (50-point threshold) 42.3 43.4 42.7 46.4 46.9 47.6 46.9 44.1 41.7 44.5Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 10.0 10.2 10.6 10.8 11.1 10.8 10.6 10.5 10.3 10.5Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, eop) 4.67 4.73 4.80 4.88 4.95 5.01 5.09 5.15 5.24 5.33Exports (annual variation in %) -12.9 -8.3 0.5 -0.7 0.7 -4.3 -3.7 12.7 13.6 -



July 2013

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

< 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 > 5.0

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product

1 | Real GDP | 2000-2017 | var. in %

3 | GDP 2013 | evolution of forecasts

2 | Real GDP | Q1 10-Q4 14 | var. in %. Real GDP growth in % *


Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2017 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.1 GDP, annual variation in %. 2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %. 3 GDP, evolution of 2013 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 GDP, panellist distribution of 2013 forecasts. Concentration of panellists in forecast interval in

%. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panellists.

Individual Forecasts 2013 2014abeceb.com - -Banco Bradesco 2.8 2.0Banco de Galicia 3.5 -BBVA Banco Francés 3.0 2.8BofA Merrill Lynch 3.2 2.9Capital Economics - -Citigroup Global Mkts 3.0 3.0Credit Suisse 2.5 2.2C&T Asesores - -Deutsche Bank - -EIU 3.5 3.3Empiria Consultores 4.4 -Estudio Bein & Asoc. 4.0 1.5Fundación Capital - -Goldman Sachs 3.4 2.7HSBC 2.5 1.0Itaú BBA - -JPMorgan 3.0 1.5LCG 3.2 3.2Nomura 4.0 3.5OJF & Asociados 5.1 3.4Oxford Economics 2.7 2.1RBS 3.3 -Santander 3.0 3.0UBS 2.8 2.5SummaryMinimum 2.5 1.0Maximum 5.1 3.5Median 3.1 2.7Consensus 3.3 2.5History30 days ago 3.3 2.860 days ago 3.3 2.890 days ago 3.3 2.9Additional ForecastsIMF (Apr. 2013) 2.8 3.5World Bank (June 2013) 3.1 3.0

*Forecasts for official GDP, as elaborated by INDEC.

-20

-10

0

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

ArgentinaLatin AmericaWorld

-5

0

5

10

15

Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14

ArgentinaLatin AmericaWorld

0

2

4

6

8

Feb May Aug Nov Feb May

MaximumConsensusMinimum

0

2

4

6

8



5 | GDP 2013 | Panellist Distribution



July 2013

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

9 | Investment | evol. of forecasts

2

4

6

8


2013 2014

8 | Investment | variation in %

-40

-20

0

20

40

2000 2005 2010 2015

Argentina

Latin America

7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0


2013 2014

6 | Consumption | variation in %

-20

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

ArgentinaLatin America

Consumption Investmentvariation in % variation in %

Individual Forecasts 2013 2014 2013 2014abeceb.com - - - -Banco Bradesco - - - -Banco de Galicia 4.2 - 3.1 -BBVA Banco Francés 3.1 3.0 2.5 3.2BofA Merrill Lynch 3.0 3.6 -3.0 -3.0Capital Economics - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts 3.7 3.1 1.7 2.0Credit Suisse 3.3 2.5 -2.1 0.0C&T Asesores - - - -Deutsche Bank - - - -EIU 2.5 2.6 5.4 3.4Empiria Consultores 2.5 1.0 3.0 3.0Estudio Bein & Asoc. 2.3 2.0 3.4 1.0Fundación Capital - - - -Goldman Sachs - - - -HSBC 4.2 3.5 0.6 2.9Itaú BBA - - - -JPMorgan - - - -LCG 4.5 3.3 4.2 4.2Nomura 4.2 3.8 7.5 5.0OJF & Asociados - - 7.5 2.0Oxford Economics 3.0 1.8 4.7 3.2RBS 3.3 - 5.0 -Santander 3.2 3.0 5.0 4.0UBS 2.0 2.8 -1.0 2.7SummaryMinimum 2.0 1.0 -3.0 -3.0Maximum 4.5 3.8 7.5 5.0Median 3.2 3.0 3.2 2.9Consensus 3.3 2.8 3.0 2.4History30 days ago 3.2 3.3 3.2 2.960 days ago 3.1 3.2 3.3 2.890 days ago 3.3 3.2 3.2 2.8

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2017 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.6 Private consumption, annual variation in %. 7 Private consumption, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.9 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Consumption and Investment



July 2013

Real Sector | Additional Forecasts

Industry Unemployment Fiscal Balance variation in % % of active pop. % of GDP

Individual Forecasts 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014abeceb.com 3.3 3.1 7.9 6.9 -1.6 -1.1Banco Bradesco - - - - - -Banco de Galicia 2.5 - 7.8 - -1.9 -BBVA Banco Francés 1.5 1.8 7.6 8.1 -1.9 -1.6BofA Merrill Lynch - - 8.2 9.5 -2.8 -1.8Capital Economics - - 8.5 9.0 -2.5 -1.5Citigroup Global Mkts - - 7.6 7.8 - -Credit Suisse - - 7.6 7.8 -2.8 -2.9C&T Asesores - - - - -2.4 -3.2Deutsche Bank 1.5 1.6 8.0 8.5 -3.1 -3.3EIU 3.0 3.0 7.4 7.5 -2.6 -2.6Empiria Consultores - - 7.8 - -3.3 -Estudio Bein & Asoc. 2.5 1.0 7.3 7.5 -1.5 -2.2Fundación Capital - - 7.4 7.4 -1.7 -2.0Goldman Sachs - - - - -3.0 -2.7HSBC 1.4 2.1 7.5 7.9 -1.9 -2.0Itaú BBA - - 7.6 8.1 -1.9 -1.9JPMorgan - - - - -3.0 -5.0LCG 2.9 3.5 7.5 8.0 -2.3 -2.3Nomura - - - - -2.0 -1.5OJF & Asociados 3.9 0.5 7.1 7.2 -1.9 -2.8Oxford Economics 1.8 2.8 7.6 7.4 -1.8 -1.3RBS - - 7.3 - -1.4 -Santander 3.2 3.0 - - -2.6 -3.6UBS - - 7.1 6.8 -2.3 -2.2SummaryMinimum 1.4 0.5 7.1 6.8 -3.3 -5.0Maximum 3.9 3.5 8.5 9.5 -1.4 -1.1Median 2.6 2.5 7.6 7.8 -2.3 -2.2Consensus 2.5 2.2 7.6 7.8 -2.3 -2.4History30 days ago 2.7 2.6 7.6 7.8 -2.2 -2.460 days ago 2.8 2.7 7.4 7.7 -2.2 -2.490 days ago 3.1 2.6 7.4 7.7 -2.2 -2.3

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2017 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas) and the Ministry of Economy (MECON, Ministerio de Economia y Produccion). See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.10 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: INDEC.11 Industrial production, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.12 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: INDEC.13 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: MECON.

Industry, Unemployment and Fiscal Balance

13 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP

-4

-2

0

2

4

2000 2005 2010 2015

Argentina

Latin America

12 | Unemployment | % of active pop.

5

10

15

20

25

2000 2005 2010 2015


11 | Industry | evol. of forecasts

2

3

4

5


2013 2014

10 | Industry | variation in %

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-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

Argentina

Latin America



July 2013

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

< 8.8 9.2 9.6 10.0 10.4 10.8 11.2 11.6 > 11.6

Monetary Sector | Inflation

14 | Inflation | 2000 - 2017 | in %

16 | Inflation 2013 | evolution of fcst

15 | Inflation | Q1 10-Q4 14 | in %


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2017 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.14 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop). 15 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop).16 Inflation, evolution of 2013 forecasts during the last 18 months.17 Inflation, evolution of 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.18 Inflation, panellist distribution of 2013 forecasts. Concentration of panellists in forecast

interval in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panellists.

Individual Forecasts 2013 2014abeceb.com - -Banco Bradesco - -Banco de Galicia 11.0 -BBVA Banco Francés 10.0 10.9BofA Merrill Lynch 9.3 15.3Capital Economics - -Citigroup Global Mkts 10.2 13.8Credit Suisse 9.9 11.7C&T Asesores 9.6 -Deutsche Bank - -EIU - -Empiria Consultores 10.8 11.5Estudio Bein & Asoc. 10.2 10.2Fundación Capital - -Goldman Sachs 10.8 13.0HSBC 9.6 10.0Itaú BBA - -JPMorgan 11.0 11.0LCG 10.5 9.7Nomura 10.2 10.2OJF & Asociados 10.7 10.0Oxford Economics 10.7 10.5RBS 10.0 -Santander 10.2 13.0UBS 10.8 11.6SummaryMinimum 9.3 9.7Maximum 11.0 15.3Median 10.2 11.0Consensus 10.3 11.5History30 days ago 10.3 11.360 days ago 10.5 11.590 days ago 10.6 11.4Additional ForecastsIMF (Apr. 2013) 10.1 10.1

18 | Inflation 2013 | Panellist Distribution

Inflation | annual variation of consumer price index in %

5

10

15

20



-20

0

20

40

60

2000 2005 2010 2015


5

10

15

20



4

6

8

10

12

Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14




July 2013

0%

20%

40%

60%

< 5.60 5.70 5.80 5.90 6.00 6.10 6.20 6.30 > 6.30

Monetary Sector | Exchange Rate

19 | Exchange Rate | ARS per USD

21 | ARS per USD 2013 | evol. of fcst

20 | Exchange Rate | ARS per USD

22 | ARS per USD 2014 | evol. of fcst

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2017 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from Thomson Reuters. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.19 Exchange rate, ARS per USD (eop).20 Quarterly exchange rate, ARS per USD (eop).21 Exchange rate, evolution of 2013 forecast during the last 18 months.22 Exchange rate, evolution of 2014 forecast during the last 18 months.23 Exchange rate, panellist distribution of 2013 forecasts. Concentration of panellists in forecast


Individual Forecasts 2013 2014abeceb.com 5.93 7.17Banco Bradesco 5.86 7.03Banco de Galicia 5.86 -BBVA Banco Francés 5.99 7.15BofA Merrill Lynch 6.00 9.00Capital Economics 6.25 8.00Citigroup Global Mkts 6.00 7.50Credit Suisse 6.00 7.50C&T Asesores 6.06 7.61Deutsche Bank 6.02 7.38EIU 5.99 7.12Empiria Consultores 6.00 7.74Estudio Bein & Asoc. 5.89 7.25Fundación Capital 5.95 7.59Goldman Sachs 5.95 7.32HSBC 6.00 7.00Itaú BBA 5.90 7.67JPMorgan - -LCG 5.91 7.04Nomura 6.00 7.20OJF & Asociados 5.90 8.56Oxford Economics 5.75 6.33RBS - -Santander 6.10 7.10UBS 5.90 7.50SummaryMinimum 5.75 6.33Maximum 6.25 9.00Median 5.99 7.35Consensus 5.97 7.44History30 days ago 5.96 7.3960 days ago 5.94 7.2290 days ago 5.92 7.15

23 | ARS per USD 2013 | Panellist Distribution

Exchange Rate | ARS per USD

4

5

6

7

8



0

3

6

9

12

2000 2005 2010 2015

4

6

8

10

12



2

4

6

8

Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14



July 2013

External Sector | Current Account and Trade Balance

0

5

10

15


2013 2014

27 | Trade Balance | evol. of forecasts

0

50

100

150

2000 2005 2010 2015

Trade BalanceExportsImports

26 | Trade Balance | USD bn

-5

0

5

10

2000 2005 2010 2015


24 | Current Account | % of GDP

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0


2013 2014

25 | Current Account | evol. of fcst

Current Account and Trade BalanceCurrent Account Trade Balance

% of GDP USD bnIndividual Forecasts 2013 2014 2013 2014abeceb.com -0.1 -0.2 10.3 10.2Banco Bradesco - - - -Banco de Galicia 0.2 - 11.5 -BBVA Banco Francés -0.3 -0.9 10.1 8.3BofA Merrill Lynch -0.7 1.2 7.0 11.7Capital Economics -0.5 0.5 9.2 14.2Citigroup Global Mkts 0.4 0.2 15.7 14.8Credit Suisse -0.5 -0.7 - -C&T Asesores -0.1 0.3 10.0 9.3Deutsche Bank 0.1 0.7 9.2 11.0EIU 0.7 -0.2 17.9 15.3Empiria Consultores -0.6 -1.3 9.6 7.0Estudio Bein & Asoc. -0.1 -0.1 12.4 12.2Fundación Capital -0.3 -0.6 10.6 9.2Goldman Sachs -0.5 -1.2 11.9 9.6HSBC 0.1 0.1 11.0 13.0Itaú BBA -0.2 -0.7 11.0 8.0JPMorgan -0.4 -0.9 12.0 12.3LCG -0.1 -0.6 11.2 10.2Nomura - - - -OJF & Asociados 0.1 -0.5 - -Oxford Economics 0.2 -0.1 12.0 12.9RBS 0.5 - - -Santander 0.2 0.2 11.4 7.3UBS 0.4 0.0 13.7 11.5SummaryMinimum -0.7 -1.3 7.0 7.0Maximum 0.7 1.2 17.9 15.3Median -0.1 -0.2 11.2 11.0Consensus -0.1 -0.2 11.4 10.9History30 days ago 0.1 -0.1 12.0 11.360 days ago 0.3 0.0 13.1 12.490 days ago 0.4 0.1 13.2 12.0

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2017 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.24 Current account balance, as % of GDP. 25 Current account balance, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.26 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD. 27 Trade balance, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.



July 2013

External Sector | Exports and Imports

Exports and ImportsExports ImportsUSD bn USD bn

Individual Forecasts 2013 2014 2013 2014abeceb.com 85.0 87.0 74.7 76.8Banco Bradesco - - - -Banco de Galicia 85.5 - 74.0 -BBVA Banco Francés 86.1 89.7 75.9 81.4BofA Merrill Lynch 84.1 84.8 77.1 73.1Capital Economics 78.0 86.0 68.8 71.8Citigroup Global Mkts 86.9 86.6 71.2 71.9Credit Suisse - - - -C&T Asesores 84.8 87.4 74.8 78.0Deutsche Bank 87.2 92.7 78.0 81.7EIU 86.5 88.0 68.5 72.7Empiria Consultores 83.4 83.6 73.7 76.6Estudio Bein & Asoc. 87.7 91.7 76.9 81.1Fundación Capital 84.0 87.3 73.4 78.2Goldman Sachs 87.0 88.8 75.1 79.1HSBC 82.4 84.6 71.3 71.6Itaú BBA - - - -JPMorgan 87.8 89.6 75.8 77.3LCG 86.6 90.7 75.4 80.5Nomura - - - -OJF & Asociados - - - -Oxford Economics 86.2 90.9 74.2 78.0RBS - - - -Santander 88.1 99.4 76.7 92.0UBS 89.7 90.2 76.0 78.7SummaryMinimum 78.0 83.6 68.5 71.6Maximum 89.7 99.4 78.0 92.0Median 86.3 88.4 75.0 78.0Consensus 85.7 88.8 74.4 77.8History30 days ago 86.2 90.1 74.2 78.660 days ago 87.5 91.4 74.3 78.790 days ago 88.4 92.4 75.1 80.1

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2017 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.28 Exports, annual variation in %. 29 Exports, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.30 Imports, annual variation in %. 31 Imports, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.

70

80

90

100


2013 2014

31 | Imports | evol. of forecasts

-100

-50

0

50

100

2000 2005 2010 2015


30 | Imports | variation in %

-40

-20

0

20

40

2000 2005 2010 2015


28 | Exports | variation in %

80

90

100

110


2013 2014

29 | Exports | evolution of fcst



July 2013

External Sector | Additional forecasts

130

140

150

160


2013 2014

35 | External Debt | evol. of forecasts

0

50

100

150

200

2000 2005 2010 2015

Argentina

Latin America

34 | External Debt | % of GDP

0

6

12

18

2000 2005 2010 2015


32 | Int. Reserves | months of imports

35

40

45

50


2013 2014

33 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst

International Reserves and External DebtInt. Reserves External Debt

USD bn USD bnIndividual Forecasts 2013 2014 2013 2014abeceb.com 37.0 35.7 - -Banco Bradesco - - - -Banco de Galicia 37.0 - - -BBVA Banco Francés 34.9 31.5 - -BofA Merrill Lynch 33.9 36.2 - -Capital Economics 37.5 29.6 - -Citigroup Global Mkts 43.0 40.0 149 156Credit Suisse 35.5 30.5 142 141C&T Asesores 37.3 36.1 - -Deutsche Bank 37.7 36.3 - -EIU - - - -Empiria Consultores 34.5 29.8 - -Estudio Bein & Asoc. 35.0 31.0 - -Fundación Capital 36.0 30.4 - -Goldman Sachs 42.0 39.0 - -HSBC 36.0 34.3 144 150Itaú BBA 39.3 35.9 - -JPMorgan 37.5 32.5 134 128LCG 35.1 32.5 - -Nomura - - - -OJF & Asociados 40.8 33.9 - -Oxford Economics 43.1 49.9 - -RBS 44.6 - 140 -Santander 44.0 42.0 137 137UBS - - - -SummaryMinimum 33.9 29.6 134 128Maximum 44.6 49.9 149 156Median 37.4 34.3 141 141Consensus 38.3 35.1 141 142History30 days ago 40.2 37.9 139 14060 days ago 41.5 39.6 143 14790 days ago 43.1 40.9 143 147

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2017 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.32 International reserves, months of imports. 33 International reserves, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.34 External debt as % of GDP. 35 External debt, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.



July 2013

Fact Sheet

Argentina in the Region

Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America

Argentina8.2%

Brazil40.7%

Mexico21.3%

Venezuela7.2%

Colombia6.6%

Other16.0%

Argentina7.2%

Brazil34.6%

Mexico20.2%

Colombia8.2%

Peru5.4%

Other24.3%

U.S.A.15.4%

EU-2715.0%

Other Asia ex-Japan

6.2%

China11.8%

Other LatAm8.6%

Brazil26.9%

Other16.1%

EU-2713.5%

Other Asia ex-Japan

9.3%

China7.2%

Other LatAm16.4%Brazil

19.7%

Chile5.8%

Other28.1%

Other7.5%

Manufact. Products83.6%

Mineral Fuels8.8%

Other7.2%


Mineral Fuels8.2%

Food51.9%

Trade Structure

Primary markets | share in %

Primary products | share in %

Economic Structure

GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %

Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

-20

0

20

40

60

80

1002003-05 2006-08 2009-11

Net Exports

Investment

GovernmentConsumption

PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002003-05 2006-08 2009-11

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data

Economic Infrastructure

Political Data

Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings

Strengths Weaknesses

• Well educated labor force • Unorthodox economic policy• Rich in natural resources • Vulnerability to external shocks• Competitive exchange rate

.

• Limited access to international financial markets

Energy (2010)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 3,429Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 3,349Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 119Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 111.1Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 788Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 620CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 169.8

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: B3 NegativeS&P: B- NegativeFitch Ratings: CC -

Telecommunication (2012) Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 24.3Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 143Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 55.8Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 10.9

Transportation (2012) Airports: 1,149Railways (km): 39,966Roadways (km): 231,374Waterways (km): 11,000Chief Ports: Buenos Aires, Bahia Blanca

Official name: Argentine RepublicCapital: Buenos Aires (13.0 m)Other cities: Cordoba (1.5 m)

Rosario (1.2 m)Area (km2): 2,780,400Population (million, 2012 est.): 41.0Population density (per km2, 2012 est.): 14.7Population growth rate (%, 2012 est.): 1.0Life expectancy (years, 2012 est.): 77.1Illiteracy rate (%, 2001): 2.8Language: SpanishMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT-3

President: Cristina FernandezLast elections: 23 October 2011Next elections: 2015Central Bank President: Mercedes Marco Del Pont

FOCUSECONOMICS Brazil


July 2013

Brazil

REAL SECTOR | Economic activity plunges most in more than four yearsIn May, economic activity fell 1.4% over the previous month in seasonally adjusted, according to the Central Bank’s monthly indicator for economic activity (IBC-Br, Indice de Atividade Economica do Banco Central). The figure contrasted the 1.0% increase observed in April and exceeded market expectations of a 1.2% decline. In fact, the reading represents the largest contraction observed since December 2008.

On an annual basis, economic activity expanded 2.3% in May, which was below the 7.3% increase tallied in April. Despite the deceleration, the trend improved, with annual average growth rising from 1.6% in April to 1.7% in May. The IBC-Br is highly correlated to the GDP series and thus represents a good proxy for economic growth.

The Central Bank expects GDP to grow 2.7% in 2013, according to its Inflation Report from June. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panellists expect the economy to expand 2.5% in 2013, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2014, the panel sees GDP growth accelerating to 3.0%.

REAL SECTOR | Industrial output falls in MayIn May, industrial production declined 2.0% over the previous month on a seasonally adjusted basis. The result contrasted the 1.9% increase observed in April (previously reported: +1.8% month-on-month) and exceeded market expectations of a 1.1% decrease. In annual terms, industrial production expanded 1.4% in May (April: +8.4% year-on-year).

In June, a wave of protests that had initially began peacefully in Sao Paulo over a hike in public transport fares, spread across the country. Demonstrations quickly escalated afterwards, forcing President Dilma Rousseff to make a pledge to improve public funds management, transport, health care and education. Social disturbances had a negative effect on the Brazilian real, which is currently trading at its lowest level in four years. Recent economic data add to the gloomy picture. Industrial production fell in May, while retail sales were flat in the same month.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panellists expect the economy to grow 2.5% in 2013, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. The panel also cut the growth forecast for 2014 and now sees the economy expanding 3.0% (June: 3.4%).

Inflation rose from 6.5% in May to 6.7% in June, the highest level in 20 months. At its 10 July meeting, the Central Bank raised the benchmark SELIC interest rate by 50 basis points to 8.50%. Panellists see inflation reaching 5.9% in 2013 and 5.8% in 2014.

Outlook deteriorates


Mateusz ReimannEconomist

Brazil

2009-11 2012-14 2015-17Population (million): 193 198 203GDP (USD bn): 2,082 2,322 2,628GDP per capita (USD): 10,760 11,722 12,959GDP growth (%): 3.3 2.1 3.3Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -2.8 -2.5 -2.3Public Debt (% of GDP): 39.8 35.1 32.7Inflation (%): 5.5 5.8 5.3Current Account (% of GDP): -1.9 -2.8 -3.0External Debt (% of GDP): 12.1 14.4 14.2

Monthly Indicator for Economic Activity | variation in %

Note: Month-on-month (s.a.) and annual average growth of the IBC-Br (Indice de Atividade Economica do Banco Central).Source: Central Bank of Brazil.

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

May-11 Nov-11 May-12 Nov-12 May-13

Month-on-month s.a. (left scale)

Annual average (right scale)

%%



July 2013

20 out of the 27 categories surveyed by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) registered a decrease in output. The largest contraction was observed in capital goods.

Despite the decline in May, annual average growth in industrial production stepped up from minus 0.9% in April to minus 0.5% in May.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast participants see industrial production expanding 2.7% in 2013, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2014, industrial output is expected to rise 3.4%.

REAL SECTOR | Retail sales flat in MayIn May, retail sales (excluding cars and construction) were flat over the previous month in seasonally adjusted terms. The reading was below the 0.6% growth observed in April (previously reported: +0.5% month-on-month) but overshot market expectations, which had retail sales declining 0.4%. On an annual basis, retail sales expanded 4.5% in May, above the 1.6% growth rate tallied in April.

Among the eight categories that compose the narrow retail sales index, five decreased over the previous month, whereas the remaining three edged up higher. Most notably, sales in the pharmaceutical and medical articles category as well as in the clothing and footwear category recorded the largest losses over the previous month. On the other hand, sales in the food, beverages and tobacco category improved the most over the same period. Meanwhile, the broad retail sales index, which includes automobiles and construction materials, fell 0.8% over the previous month (April: +1.4% month-on-month).

Annual average growth in retail sales fell from 6.4% in April to 6.1% in May, the lowest level since December 2009. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panellists expect retail sales growth to decelerate further and to expand 5.1% this year, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2014, the panel sees retail sales growing 5.4%.

OUTLOOK | Business confidence edges down in JuneIn June, the business confidence index published by the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV, Fundaçao Getulio Vargas) decreased a seasonally adjusted 1.1% over the previous month to 103.8 points. The fall reflected a decline in the present situation index as well as in the expectations index.

Despite the drop, the index has now remained above the 100-point threshold for almost four years, indicating that optimism prevails among businesses. That said, business confidence is still well below the post-crisis peak of 116.5 points recorded in March 2010.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast participants see fixed investment expanding 4.6% in 2013, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2014, panellists expect fixed investment growth to accelerate to a 5.3% expansion.

OUTLOOK | Consumer confidence continues to slide in JuneThe consumer confidence index published by the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV, Fundaçao Getulio Vargas) fell a seasonally adjusted 0.4% over the previous month in June. As a result, the index fell to 112.9 points, which was below the 113.4 points registered in May and represents the lowest level seen in more than three years. The reading reflects how a deterioration in

Retail Sales | variation in %

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted retail sales and annual average growth rate in %.Source: Brazil Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and FocusEconomics calculations.

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0




%%

Industrial Production | variation in %

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted industrial production and annual average growth rate in %.Source: Brazil Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and FocusEconomics calculations.

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0




%%

Business Confidence Index

Note: Index of business sentiment (seasonally adjusted). The 100-point threshold represents the point above which businesses expect economic conditions to improve.Source: Getulio Vargas Foundation.

90

100

110

120




July 2013

households’ assessment of the current economic situation more than offset a slight improvement in future expectations.

The FGV confidence index has a range spanning from 1 to 200 points, where 100 points is considered neutral. At the current level, consumer confidence still sits comfortably above the 100-point threshold, which suggests sustained growth in private consumption going forward.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast participants expect private consumption to expand 2.9% in 2013, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2014, panellists expect private consumption to increase 3.4%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation rises to a 20-month high in JuneIn June, consumer prices 0.26% over the previous month, which was below both the 0.37% rise recorded in May and market expectations of a 0.34% price increase. The rise was mainly driven by higher prices for health and personal care as well as for housing.

As a result of the monthly price increase, annual headline inflation edged up from 6.5% in May to 6.7% in June, the highest level since October 2011. As a result, inflation is now above the Central Bank’s target of 4.5% with a tolerance margin of plus/minus 2.0 percentage points.

The Central Bank expects inflation to moderate to 5.7% by the end of this year and to ease further to 5.3% by the end of 2014. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast participants see IPCA inflation closing 2013 at 5.9%, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2014, the panel sees inflation at 5.8%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Central Bank hikes SELIC rate for the third time in a rowAt its 10 July meeting, the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM, Comite de Politica Monetaria) decided to raise the benchmark SELIC interest rate by 50 basis points to 8.50%, in a unanimous vote that was in line with market expectations. The decision comes amid mounting price pressures, with inflation breaching the Bank’s target ceiling in June, and follows two other rate hikes in April and May.

In the brief accompanying statement, virtually unchanged from the previous month, policymakers stated that the increase in the policy rate should put inflation on a downward path and assure that this trend will continue next year. The minutes, including details of the meeting, will be released on 18 July.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast participants see the SELIC rate ending this year at 9.17%. For 2014, panellists see the SELIC rate broadly unchanged at 9.18%.

EXTERNAL SECTOR | Current account gap widens in May on weak trade surplusIn May, the current account balance incurred a deficit of USD 6.4 billion, which was larger than the USD 3.4 billion shortfall registered in the same month last year but was in line with market expectations.

The trade balance registered a monthly surplus of USD 759 million in May, which was well below the USD 3.0 billion surplus registered in the same month last year. Moreover, the services and income balance tallied a USD 7.3

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2




%%


Note: Annual and monthly var. of IPCA consumer price index in %. Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).

Consumer Confidence Index

Note: Index of consumer sentiment (seasonally adjusted). The 100-point threshold represents the point above which consumers expect economic conditions to improve.Source: Getulio Vargas Foundation.

90

100

110

120

130


Monetary Policy Rate | in %

Note: SELIC target rate (Taxa SELIC meta) in %.Source: Central Bank of Brazil (Banco Central do Brasil).

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13

%



July 2013

billion deficit in May, which represents a deterioration from the USD 6.7 billion shortfall posted in the same month last year.

The moving 12-month current account deficit widened from USD 70.0 billion in April to USD 73.0 billion in May (approximately 3.2% of GDP), which brings the ratio to levels last seen in 2002.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast participants expect a current account deficit of 3.1% of GDP this year, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2014, panellists anticipate the current account deficit to narrow to 3.0% of GDP.

Current Account Balance | USD billion

Note: Monthly and 12-month current account balance in USD billion.Source: Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) and FocusEconomics calculations.

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-12.0

-9.0

-6.0

-3.0

0.0


Monthly current account balance (left scale)

12-month current account balance (right scale)



July 2013


Annual Data 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Real Sector Population (million) 190 191 193 195 197 198 199 201 203 204GDP per capita (USD) 8,707 8,490 11,094 12,697 11,462 11,633 12,072 12,537 12,886 13,455GDP (USD bn) 1,651 1,626 2,144 2,475 2,253 2,304 2,408 2,521 2,613 2,751Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 5.2 -0.3 7.5 2.7 0.9 2.5 3.0 3.0 3.4 3.5Domestic Demand (annual var. in %) 7.5 0.0 10.9 3.7 0.5 3.1 4.1 4.4 4.3 3.9Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 5.7 4.4 6.9 4.1 3.1 2.9 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7Government Consumption (ann. var. in %) 3.2 3.1 4.2 1.9 3.2 - - - - -Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) 13.6 -6.7 21.3 4.7 -4.0 4.6 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.5Industrial Production (annual var. in %) 3.1 -7.4 10.5 0.4 -2.6 2.7 3.4 3.2 3.3 3.3Retail Sales (annual var. in %) 9.1 5.9 10.9 6.7 8.4 5.1 5.4 5.1 5.2 5.1Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 7.9 8.1 6.7 6.0 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.9 5.8 5.8Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -2.0 -3.3 -2.5 -2.6 -2.5 -2.6 -2.4 -2.4 -2.3 -2.2Public Debt (% of GDP) 38.8 42.5 39.7 37.1 35.9 35.0 34.3 33.6 32.5 31.9Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M2 in %) 37.3 8.8 16.7 18.7 9.1 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual var. in %, eop) 5.9 4.3 5.9 6.5 5.8 5.9 5.8 5.4 5.1 5.1Inflation (CPI, annual var. in %, aop) 5.7 4.9 5.0 6.6 5.4 6.3 5.7 5.6 5.2 5.1Inflation (Core, annual var. in %, eop) 5.5 4.6 5.6 6.7 5.6 - - - - -Inflation (PPI, annual var. in %, eop) 9.8 -4.1 13.9 4.1 9.1 - - - - -SELIC Rate (%, eop) 13.75 8.75 10.75 11.00 7.25 9.17 9.18 9.45 9.12 8.86Stock Market (Bovespa variation in %) -41.2 82.7 1.0 -18.1 7.4 - - - - -Exchange Rate (BRL per USD, eop) 2.31 1.74 1.66 1.86 2.05 2.14 2.20 2.31 2.40 2.46Exchange Rate (BRL per USD, aop) 1.84 2.00 1.76 1.67 1.95 2.08 2.16 2.25 2.35 2.43External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -1.7 -1.5 -2.2 -2.1 -2.4 -3.1 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0Current Account Balance (USD bn) -28.2 -24.3 -47.3 -52.5 -54.2 -71.5 -72.6 -76.3 -77.6 -82.5Trade Balance (USD bn) 25.0 25.3 20.1 29.8 19.4 7.3 10.2 11.6 14.7 18.2Exports (USD bn) 198 153 202 256 243 246 265 288 315 344Imports (USD bn) 173 128 182 226 223 238 255 277 300 326Exports (annual var. in %) 23.2 -22.7 32.0 26.8 -5.3 1.2 7.9 8.8 9.2 9.2Imports (annual var. in %) 43.4 -26.2 42.3 24.5 -1.4 6.8 7.0 8.7 8.5 8.4International Reserves (USD bn) 194 239 289 352 373 387 398 410 422 437International Reserves (months of imports) 13.4 22.4 19.1 18.7 20.1 19.5 18.7 17.8 16.9 16.1External Debt (USD bn) 198 198 257 298 313 334 354 360 369 391External Debt (% of GDP) 12.0 12.2 12.0 12.0 13.9 14.5 14.7 14.3 14.1 14.2 Quarterly Data Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 0.9 1.4 1.9 2.3 3.0 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.3Economic Growth (GDP, qoq s.a. var. in %) 0.3 0.6 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.4 1.2 0.9 1.0Domestic Demand (annual var. in %) -0.1 0.6 2.3 2.8 3.4 3.8 3.9 3.9 4.1 4.4Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 3.4 3.9 2.1 3.0 3.1 3.0 3.4 3.7 3.5 3.5Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) -5.6 -4.5 3.0 3.6 5.4 6.1 5.8 5.5 5.1 5.2Industrial Production (annual var. in %) -2.4 -0.4 -0.5 2.8 3.4 4.5 3.2 3.2 3.3 4.1Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 5.4 4.9 5.6 5.7 5.4 5.1 5.9 5.9 5.7 5.2Inflation (CPI, annual var. in %, eop) 5.3 5.8 6.6 6.7 6.2 5.9 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.8SELIC Rate (%, eop) 7.50 7.25 7.25 8.00 8.75 9.17 9.30 9.33 9.31 9.18Exchange Rate (BRL per USD, eop) 2.03 2.05 2.02 2.23 2.14 2.14 2.14 2.16 2.18 2.20Exchange Rate (BRL per USD, aop) 2.03 2.06 2.00 2.07 2.12 2.14 2.14 2.15 2.17 2.19Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -1.6 -3.5 -4.5 -2.9 -2.7 -1.5 -3.5 -2.9 -3.0 -3.2Current Account Balance (USD bn) -8.9 -20.1 -24.9 -17.2 -15.1 -8.6 -20.1 -17.4 -18.1 -20.0Trade Balance (USD bn) 8.6 3.7 -5.2 2.2 5.3 5.7 -0.5 4.3 5.2 2.5Exports (USD bn) 63.4 62.0 50.8 63.7 64.0 69.0 57.4 65.7 73.3 73.5Imports (USD bn) 54.7 58.3 56.0 61.5 59.4 63.0 58.0 62.7 68.7 71.0 Monthly Data Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13Economic Activity (IBC-Br, annual var. in %) -1.1 3.3 1.5 -0.4 3.8 0.4 1.2 7.3 2.3 -Economic Activity (IBC-Br, mom var. in %) -1.0 1.0 0.2 -0.3 1.1 -0.4 1.1 1.0 -1.4 -Industrial Production (ann. var. in %) -3.2 2.9 -0.8 -3.5 5.6 -3.1 -3.4 8.4 1.4 -Industrial Production (s.a. mom var. in %) -0.7 0.9 -1.4 -0.2 2.7 -2.3 0.8 1.9 -2.0 -Retail Sales (annual var. in %) 8.5 9.2 8.4 5.1 5.9 -0.2 4.5 1.6 4.5 -Unemployment (% of active population) 5.4 5.3 4.9 4.6 5.4 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.8 -Consumer Confidence Index (100 pt, s.a.) 122.1 121.7 120.0 118.7 117.9 116.2 113.9 113.9 113.4 112.9Business Confidence Index (100 pt, s.a.) 105.0 106.0 105.2 106.4 106.5 106.6 105.0 104.2 105.0 103.8Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.57 0.59 0.60 0.79 0.86 0.60 0.47 0.55 0.37 0.26Inflation (CPI, annual var. in %) 5.3 5.5 5.5 5.8 6.2 6.3 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.7Exchange Rate (BRL per USD, eop) 2.03 2.03 2.14 2.05 1.99 1.98 2.02 2.00 2.14 2.23Current Account Balance (USD bn) -2.6 -5.4 -6.3 -8.4 -11.4 -6.6 -6.9 -8.3 -6.4 -



July 2013

0%

20%

40%

60%

< 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 > 4.5


1 | Real GDP | 2000-2017 | var. in %


2 | Real GDP | Q1 10-Q4 14 | var. in %. Real GDP growth in %


Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2017 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Brazil Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE, Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.1 GDP, real annual variation in %. 2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.3 GDP, evolution of 2013 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 GDP, panellist distribution of 2013 forecasts. Concentration of panellists in forecast interval in


Individual Forecasts 2013 2014Banco Bradesco 2.3 2.5Banco Fator 2.2 2.5Banco Safra 2.2 3.0Banco Votorantim 2.5 3.0Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Brasil 2.3 3.0Barclays Capital 3.0 3.6BofA Merrill Lynch 2.0 2.6Bradesco - Asset Mgmt 2.3 2.7Capital Economics 2.8 3.2Citigroup Global Mkts 3.1 4.0Datalink 2.5 -Deutsche Bank 2.4 3.1EIU 2.5 3.0Espírito Santo Investment Bank 2.3 2.5GBM Securities 2.7 3.9Goldman Sachs 2.3 2.8HSBC 2.6 3.5ING 2.5 3.2Itaú BBA 2.3 2.2JPMorgan 2.0 2.7LCA Consultores 2.5 3.3Nomura 2.5 2.3Oxford Economics 2.3 2.8RBC Capital Markets 3.5 -Santander 2.8 2.7Tendências Consultoria Integrada 2.5 3.2UBS 3.3 3.4SummaryMinimum 2.0 2.2Maximum 3.5 4.0Median 2.5 3.0Consensus 2.5 3.0History30 days ago 2.8 3.460 days ago 3.1 3.690 days ago 3.2 3.7Additional ForecastsCentral Bank (June 2013) 2.7 -IMF (July 2013) 2.5 3.2OECD (May 2013) 2.9 3.5

-5

0

5

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

BrazilLatin AmericaWorld

0

3

6

9

12

Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14

BrazilLatin AmericaWorld

2

3

4

5

6



1

2

3

4

5

6






July 2013



4

5

6

7

8


2013 2014


-10

0

10

20

30

2000 2005 2010 2015

BrazilLatin America


2

3

4

5

6


2013 2014


-5

0

5

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

Brazil

Latin America


Individual Forecasts 2013 2014 2013 2014Banco Bradesco 2.4 2.5 6.5 7.5Banco Fator - - - -Banco Safra 3.3 3.6 3.8 7.0Banco Votorantim 3.0 4.0 4.0 6.0Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Brasil 2.8 2.8 2.5 4.0Barclays Capital 4.0 3.9 -0.9 4.3BofA Merrill Lynch 2.5 3.0 5.0 3.5Bradesco - Asset Mgmt - - - -Capital Economics 3.5 4.0 5.0 7.5Citigroup Global Mkts 4.1 4.4 3.2 7.0Datalink 2.7 - 5.5 -Deutsche Bank 2.4 3.0 5.2 5.6EIU 2.6 3.2 3.5 3.0Espírito Santo Investment Bank - - - -GBM Securities 2.8 3.5 5.5 10.0Goldman Sachs - - - -HSBC 3.3 3.8 1.6 5.0ING 2.6 3.4 3.5 4.0Itaú BBA - - - -JPMorgan 2.6 3.4 5.0 3.8LCA Consultores 2.4 3.9 7.5 6.3Nomura 2.0 2.7 7.5 1.0Oxford Economics 2.1 3.0 4.8 3.7RBC Capital Markets - - - -Santander - - - -Tendências Consultoria Integrada 2.5 3.4 3.8 6.3UBS 3.6 3.8 9.2 5.5SummaryMinimum 2.0 2.5 -0.9 1.0Maximum 4.1 4.4 9.2 10.0Median 2.7 3.4 4.9 5.5Consensus 2.9 3.4 4.6 5.3History30 days ago 3.1 3.6 4.6 5.660 days ago 3.6 3.9 4.5 6.190 days ago 3.7 4.0 4.4 6.2

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2017 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Brazil Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE, Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.6 Private consumption, annual variation in %. 7 Private consumption, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.9 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.




July 2013


Industry Unemployment Fiscal Balance variation in % % of active pop. % of GDP

Individual Forecasts 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014Banco Bradesco 2.7 3.8 5.5 5.5 -1.7 -1.3Banco Fator 2.9 4.7 5.6 6.1 -1.7 -1.7Banco Safra 3.2 - 5.2 - -3.7 -Banco Votorantim 2.0 3.0 5.5 5.5 -3.2 -2.7Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Brasil 1.5 3.0 5.5 5.8 -2.5 -Barclays Capital 2.1 2.8 5.5 5.7 -2.5 -2.5BofA Merrill Lynch - - 5.6 5.6 -2.5 -1.9Bradesco - Asset Mgmt 1.5 2.6 - - -1.5 -1.5Capital Economics - - - - -2.3 -1.9Citigroup Global Mkts - - 5.5 5.4 -3.5 -3.1Datalink 3.5 - 5.6 - -3.5 -Deutsche Bank 2.5 3.0 5.5 5.7 -3.1 -3.3EIU 3.0 3.5 6.2 6.5 -3.1 -3.2Espírito Santo Investment Bank 2.5 3.0 5.3 5.5 -2.8 -2.5GBM Securities 4.5 6.1 5.3 5.5 -1.2 -1.0Goldman Sachs - - - - -3.7 -4.0HSBC 3.4 4.1 - - -1.5 -1.2ING 2.5 3.0 - - -3.0 -3.0Itaú BBA - - 5.5 5.8 -3.5 -3.8JPMorgan 3.0 3.5 6.5 6.0 -3.9 -4.0LCA Consultores 2.3 3.3 5.5 5.5 -2.7 -3.5Nomura - - - - - -Oxford Economics 2.1 3.4 5.5 5.2 -2.0 -1.9RBC Capital Markets - - - - - -Santander 2.9 2.0 5.7 5.8 -1.5 -1.0Tendências Consultoria Integrada - - 5.5 5.5 -2.6 -2.1UBS 2.7 2.6 5.0 4.5 -2.4 -2.6SummaryMinimum 1.5 2.0 5.0 4.5 -3.9 -4.0Maximum 4.5 6.1 6.5 6.5 -1.2 -1.0Median 2.7 3.0 5.5 5.6 -2.6 -2.5Consensus 2.7 3.4 5.6 5.6 -2.6 -2.4History30 days ago 2.8 3.4 5.5 5.5 -2.7 -2.660 days ago 2.9 3.5 5.5 5.5 -2.6 -2.590 days ago 3.1 3.5 5.5 5.4 -2.4 -2.2

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2017 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Brazil Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE, Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica) and the Central Bank (BCB, Banco Central do Brasil). See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.10 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: IBGE.11 Industrial production, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.12 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: IBGE.13 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: BCB.



-6

-4

-2

0

2000 2005 2010 2015

Brazil

Latin America


4

8

12

16

2000 2005 2010 2015

BrazilLatin America


2

3

4

5


2013 2014


-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2000 2005 2010 2015

Brazil

Latin America



July 2013

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

< 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.6 > 6.6


14 | Inflation | 2000 - 2017 | in %


15 | Inflation | Q1 10-Q4 14 | in %


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2017 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from Brazil Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE, Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.14 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop). 15 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop).16 Inflation, evolution of 2013 forecasts during the last 18 months.17 Inflation, evolution of 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.18 Inflation, panellist distribution of 2013 forecasts. Concentration of panellists in forecast


Individual Forecasts 2013 2014Banco Bradesco 6.0 5.5Banco Fator 5.8 5.9Banco Safra 5.9 5.8Banco Votorantim 5.6 5.5Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Brasil 6.2 6.0Barclays Capital 5.5 5.6BofA Merrill Lynch 5.6 6.0Bradesco - Asset Mgmt 6.2 5.7Capital Economics 6.0 5.0Citigroup Global Mkts 5.8 5.7Datalink 5.8 -Deutsche Bank 5.8 5.8EIU 6.0 5.8Espírito Santo Investment Bank 6.0 5.9GBM Securities 6.0 5.7Goldman Sachs 5.7 5.5HSBC 5.5 6.3ING 6.0 5.8Itaú BBA 6.1 5.9JPMorgan 5.9 5.8LCA Consultores 5.6 5.5Nomura 5.7 5.4Oxford Economics 6.3 5.8RBC Capital Markets 5.8 -Santander 6.0 6.3Tendências Consultoria Integrada 5.6 5.8UBS 6.2 6.5SummaryMinimum 5.5 5.0Maximum 6.3 6.5Median 5.9 5.8Consensus 5.9 5.8History30 days ago 5.8 5.760 days ago 5.8 5.790 days ago 5.7 5.7Additional ForecastsCentral Bank (June 2013) 6.0 5.4IMF (Apr. 2013) 5.5 4.5OECD (May 2013) 6.2 5.2



3

4

5

6

7



0

5

10

15

2000 2005 2010 2015

Brazil

Latin America

3

4

5

6

7



4

5

6

7

8

Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14

BrazilLatin America



July 2013

0%

20%

40%

60%

< 7.50 8.00 8.50 9.00 9.50 10.00 10.50 11.00 > 11.00

Monetary Sector | Interest Rate

19 | Interest Rate | 2000 - 2017 | in %

21 | Int. Rate 2013 | evolution of fcst

20 | Interest Rate | Q1 10-Q4 14 | in %


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2017 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the Central Bank (BCB, Banco Central do Brasil). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.19 Interest rate, SELIC rate in % (eop).20 Quarterly interest rate, SELIC rate in % (eop).21 Interest rate, evolution of 2013 forecasts during the last 18 months.22 Interest rate, evolution of 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.23 Interest rate, panellist distribution of 2013 forecasts. Concentration of panellists in forecast


Individual Forecasts 2013 2014Banco Bradesco 9.50 9.50Banco Fator 9.50 9.00Banco Safra 9.50 10.00Banco Votorantim 9.25 9.25Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Brasil 10.00 10.00Barclays Capital 8.75 8.75BofA Merrill Lynch 9.00 9.00Bradesco - Asset Mgmt 10.00 10.50Capital Economics - -Citigroup Global Mkts 8.25 8.25Datalink - -Deutsche Bank 9.25 9.25EIU - -Espírito Santo Investment Bank 9.25 9.25GBM Securities 9.00 9.25Goldman Sachs 9.25 9.25HSBC 8.75 8.75ING 9.25 9.25Itaú BBA 9.75 9.75JPMorgan 9.50 9.00LCA Consultores 9.50 9.50Nomura 9.25 9.25Oxford Economics - -RBC Capital Markets - -Santander 8.00 8.00Tendências Consultoria Integrada 9.00 9.00UBS 8.25 8.25SummaryMinimum 8.00 8.00Maximum 10.00 10.50Median 9.25 9.25Consensus 9.17 9.18History30 days ago 8.72 8.7260 days ago 8.26 8.3690 days ago 8.21 8.34

23 | Interest Rate 2013 | Panellist Distribution

Interest Rate | Policy Rate

6

8

10

12

14



0

10

20

30

2000 2005 2010 2015

Brazil

Latin America

6

8

10

12



6

8

10

12

14

Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14

Brazil

Latin America



July 2013

0%

20%

40%

60%

< 1.80 1.90 2.00 2.10 2.20 2.30 2.40 2.50 > 2.50


24 | Exchange Rate | BRL per USD

26 | BRL per USD 2013 | evol. of fcst

25 | Exchange Rate | BRL per USD

27 | BRL per USD 2014 | evol. of fcst

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2017 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from Thomson Reuters. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.24 Exchange rate, BRL per USD (eop).25 Quarterly exchange rate, BRL per USD (eop).26 Exchange rate, evolution of 2013 forecast during the last 18 months.27 Exchange rate, evolution of 2014 forecast during the last 18 months.28 Exchange rate, panellist distribution of 2013 forecasts. Concentration of panellists in forecast


Individual Forecasts 2013 2014Banco Bradesco 2.20 2.35Banco Fator 2.20 2.40Banco Safra 2.17 2.30Banco Votorantim 2.10 2.15Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Brasil 2.25 2.35Barclays Capital 2.00 1.95BofA Merrill Lynch 2.20 2.20Bradesco - Asset Mgmt 2.30 2.30Capital Economics - -Citigroup Global Mkts 1.98 2.03Datalink 2.05 -Deutsche Bank 2.15 2.25EIU 2.17 2.24Espírito Santo Investment Bank 2.10 2.20GBM Securities 2.16 2.22Goldman Sachs 2.30 2.40HSBC 2.15 2.20ING 2.15 2.20Itaú BBA 2.18 2.18JPMorgan 2.20 2.15LCA Consultores 2.13 2.15Nomura 2.00 2.05Oxford Economics 2.12 2.15RBC Capital Markets 2.15 -Santander 2.10 2.20Tendências Consultoria Integrada 2.25 2.35UBS 1.85 1.92SummaryMinimum 1.85 1.92Maximum 2.30 2.40Median 2.15 2.20Consensus 2.14 2.20History30 days ago 2.06 2.1160 days ago 2.03 2.0790 days ago 2.02 2.06

28 | BRL per USD 2013 | Panellist Distribution

Exchange Rate | BRL per USD

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4



1

2

3

4

2000 2005 2010 2015

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4



1.2

1.6

2.0

2.4

Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14



July 2013


5

10

15

20

25


2013 2014


0

100

200

300

400

2000 2005 2010 2015

Trade BalanceExportsImports


-6

-4

-2

0

2

2000 2005 2010 2015

BrazilLatin America


-3.2

-3.0

-2.8

-2.6


2013 2014



% of GDP USD bnIndividual Forecasts 2013 2014 2013 2014Banco Bradesco -3.1 -2.9 9.1 13.7Banco Fator -3.3 -3.2 6.5 15.0Banco Safra -3.8 - 2.0 -Banco Votorantim -3.4 -3.4 6.4 3.6Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Brasil -3.4 - 5.0 -Barclays Capital -2.6 -2.6 15.5 12.4BofA Merrill Lynch -3.3 -3.6 11.0 16.8Bradesco - Asset Mgmt -3.3 -2.7 6.7 15.1Capital Economics -2.0 -2.2 - -Citigroup Global Mkts -3.1 -3.2 9.0 3.7Datalink -2.9 - 9.3 -Deutsche Bank -3.1 -3.0 9.0 14.0EIU -3.2 -3.5 5.5 -2.9Espírito Santo Investment Bank -3.2 -2.8 9.0 15.0GBM Securities -3.0 -2.5 0.9 12.2Goldman Sachs -3.3 -3.7 8.9 6.3HSBC -2.8 -2.7 12.8 13.3ING -3.3 -3.7 5.7 3.6Itaú BBA -3.3 -2.9 6.0 15.0JPMorgan -2.9 -2.6 6.4 10.9LCA Consultores -3.1 -2.3 9.2 27.4Nomura -2.7 -2.7 8.0 10.0Oxford Economics -3.4 -3.3 1.4 6.6RBC Capital Markets - - - -Santander -2.8 -2.9 10.6 11.7Tendências Consultoria Integrada -3.1 -3.2 9.5 11.6UBS -3.2 -3.7 0.3 -9.8SummaryMinimum -3.8 -3.7 0.3 -9.8Maximum -2.0 -2.2 15.5 27.4Median -3.1 -2.9 8.0 12.0Consensus -3.1 -3.0 7.3 10.2History30 days ago -3.0 -3.0 8.0 10.060 days ago -2.9 -2.9 9.6 11.890 days ago -2.8 -2.8 12.9 12.7

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2017 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BCB, Banco Central do Brasil) and the Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade (MDIC, Ministerio do Desenvolvimento, Industria e Comercio Exterior). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.29 Current account balance, as % of GDP. Source: BCB.30 Current account balance, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.31 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD. Source: MDIC. 32 Trade balance, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.



July 2013



Individual Forecasts 2013 2014 2013 2014Banco Bradesco 247 282 238 268Banco Fator 245 272 239 257Banco Safra 240 - 238 -Banco Votorantim 250 262 244 258Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Brasil 245 - 240 -Barclays Capital 249 256 233 244BofA Merrill Lynch 235 255 224 238Bradesco - Asset Mgmt 240 243 233 228Capital Economics - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts 246 260 237 257Datalink 255 - 245 -Deutsche Bank 247 264 238 250EIU 246 265 240 268Espírito Santo Investment Bank 255 295 246 280GBM Securities 228 245 228 233Goldman Sachs 248 268 239 261HSBC 265 275 252 262ING 242 267 237 263Itaú BBA 244 267 238 252JPMorgan 248 275 242 264LCA Consultores 237 261 228 234Nomura - - - -Oxford Economics 237 243 235 236RBC Capital Markets - - - -Santander 250 278 240 267Tendências Consultoria Integrada 243 269 234 257UBS 251 264 251 273SummaryMinimum 228 243 224 228Maximum 265 295 252 280Median 246 265 238 257Consensus 246 265 238 255History30 days ago 247 266 239 25660 days ago 247 266 238 25590 days ago 252 271 239 258

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2017 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from from the Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade (MDIC, Ministerio do Desenvolvimento, Industria e Comercio Exterior). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.33 Exports, annual variation in %. 34 Exports, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.35 Imports, annual variation in %. 36 Imports, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.

220

260

300

340


2013 2014


-40

-20

0

20

40

60

2000 2005 2010 2015

BrazilLatin America


-40

-20

0

20

40

2000 2005 2010 2015

BrazilLatin America


200

240

280

320

360


2013 2014




July 2013


300

320

340

360

380


2013 2014


10

20

30

40

50

2000 2005 2010 2015

Brazil

Latin America


5

10

15

20

25

2000 2005 2010 2015

BrazilLatin America


360

380

400

420


2013 2014



USD bn USD bnIndividual Forecasts 2013 2014 2013 2014Banco Bradesco 382 388 - -Banco Fator 389 398 - -Banco Safra - - - -Banco Votorantim 380 380 - -Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Brasil 379 - 318 -Barclays Capital 393 401 331 338BofA Merrill Lynch 382 382 309 326Bradesco - Asset Mgmt 450 450 330 340Capital Economics - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts 385 385 - -Datalink 368 - - -Deutsche Bank 379 379 - -EIU 382 401 - -Espírito Santo Investment Bank 380 380 - -GBM Securities 374 376 - -Goldman Sachs 404 449 336 370HSBC 390 400 352 385ING 375 370 375 370Itaú BBA 400 410 - -JPMorgan 396 426 - -LCA Consultores 384 411 - -Nomura - - - -Oxford Economics 392 408 322 348RBC Capital Markets - - - -Santander 390 400 - -Tendências Consultoria Integrada 366 366 - -UBS - - - -SummaryMinimum 366 366 309 326Maximum 450 450 375 385Median 383 399 331 348Consensus 387 398 334 354History30 days ago 390 401 338 35860 days ago 395 407 335 36090 days ago 395 407 335 360

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2017 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BCB, Banco Central do Brasil). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.38 International reserves, months of imports. 39 International reserves, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.40 External debt as % of GDP. 41 External debt, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.



July 2013

Fact Sheet

Brazil in the Region


Brazil40.6%

Mexico21.2%

Argentina8.6%

Venezuela6.9%

Colombia6.6%

Other16.2%

Brazil34.6%

Mexico20.2%

Colombia8.2%

Argentina7.2%

Peru5.4%

Other24.3%

U.S.A.14.7%

Other EU-27

15.0%

Germany6.4%

Other Asia ex-Japan

11.1%China15.4%

Other LatAm9.3%

Argentina7.4%

Other20.7%

U.S.A.11.1%

Other EU-27

14.0%

Netherlands6.2%

Other Asia ex-Japan

9.6%

China17.0%

Other LatAm11.4%

Argentina7.4%

Other23.2%

Other9.4%


Mineral Fuels16.6%

Other5.0%


Ores & Metals16.3%

Mineral Fuels9.9%

Food31.9%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

-20

0

20

40

60

80

1002003-05 2006-08 2009-11

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002003-05 2006-08 2009-11

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• Stable financial system

.

• Commitment to economic orthodoxy

• Pronounced socio-economic inequalities

• Large domestic market and diversified production

• Strong foreign direct investment flows bolster capital account

• Inadequate infrastructure creates bottleneck for economic growth• Privatization and deregulation lagging

Energy (2010)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 9,467Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 11,299Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 507Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 456Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 2,714Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 2,622CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 454

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: Baa2 PositiveS&P: BBB Negative Fitch Ratings: BBB Stable


Transportation (2012) Airports: 4,105Railways (km): 28,538Roadways (km): 1,580,964Waterways (km): 50,000Chief Ports: Santos, Belem, Itajai

Official name: Federative Republicof Brazil

Capital: Brasilia (2.6m)Other cities: Sao Paulo (11.3m)

Rio de Janeiro (6.3m)Area (km2): 8,514,877Population (million, 2012 est.): 197Population density (per km2, 2012 est.): 23.1Population growth rate (%, 2012 est.): 0.9Life expectancy (years, 2012 est.): 72.8Illiteracy rate (%, 2004 est.): 11.4Language: PortugueseMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT-2 to GMT-4

President: Dilma RousseffLast elections: 3 October 2010Next elections: 5 October 2014Central Bank President: Alexandre Antonio Tombini

FOCUSECONOMICS Chile


July 2013

REAL SECTOR | Economic activity weakens in MayIn May, economic activity expanded 3.5% over the same month last year, according to the monthly indicator for economic activity (IMACEC). The reading represents a deceleration compared to the 4.4% expansion observed in April and undershot market expectations of a 3.9% increase. According to the Central Bank, the May expansion was mostly due to strong growth in the commercial sector.

On a monthly basis, however, economic activity rose a healthy 0.7% in May, following a revised 0.1% increase in April (previously reported: +0.2% month-on-month). That said, as a result of the slower annual growth in May, the trend continues to point downwards, with annual average growth in economic activity slowing from 5.3% in April to 5.1% in May.

In its latest Monetary Policy Report from June, the Central Bank cut its economic growth forecast for this year from a range of between 4.5% and 5.5% to between 4.0% and 5.0%. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panellists share this view and see the economy growing 4.6% this year, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2014, the panel expects the economy to expand to 4.6%.

OUTLOOK | Consumer confidence drops to six-month lowIn May, the Adimark GfK consumer confidence index (IPEC, Indice de Percepcion de la Economia) dropped from 59.2 points in April to 55.2 points, reaching the lowest level in six months. Despite the fall, confidence among

Economic activity expanded 3.5% in May, which was down from the 4.4% expansion in April. Similarly, forward-looking indicators point to slower growth in the months ahead, with consumer confidence dropping to a six-month low in May and business confidence falling to the lowest level in more than four years in Q2. On the political front, former president Michelle Bachelet from the Socialist Party has won the country’s first-ever primary presidential elections and will be facing conservative candidate and former Minister of Economy Pablo Longueira in the presidential elections in November.

LatinFocus panellists expect the economy to expand 4.6% in 2013, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2014 the panellists see the economy stable at 4.6%.

Inflation in June rose to 1.9% from 1.0% in May. At its 11 July policy meeting, the Central Bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 5.00%. Panellists see inflation at 2.4% by the end of this year and at 2.9% by the end of the next.

Outlook moderates


Pamela PoglianiEconomist

2009-11 2012-14 2015-17Population (million): 17.1 17.6 18.0GDP (USD bn): 216 285 344GDP per capita (USD): 12,606 16,226 19,085GDP growth (%): 3.5 4.9 4.8Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -1.0 0.1 -0.1Public Debt (% of GDP): 8.5 11.3 12.3Inflation (%): 1.7 2.5 3.0Current Account (% of GDP): 0.7 -3.9 -2.9External Debt (% of GDP): 40.4 41.9 37.8

ChileChile

Economic Activity | variation in %

Note: Year-on-year and annual average growth rate in %.Source: Chile Central Bank (BCC) and FocusEconomics calculations.

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0


Year-on-year Annual average

%



July 2013

Consumer Confidence

Note: Consumer confidence index (IPEC, Indice de percepcion de la economia). Values above 50 indicate an optimistic assesment in consumer sentiment while values below 50 indicate a pessimistic assesment.Source: Adimark GfK.

40

45

50

55

60


Business Confidence

Note: Business Confidence Index (IEE, Indice de Expectativas Empresariales).Values above 50 indicate optimistic perception, below 50 indicate negativeperception.Source: Camara de Comercio de Santiago (CCS).

40

50

60

70

80

Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13


Note: Year-on-year and monthly variation of consumer price index in %.Source: Chile National Statistical Institute (INE).

0.5

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0




%%

consumers remains above the 50-point threshold that separates optimism from pessimism.

The contraction was broad based as all sub-indicators experienced falls compared to the previous month. Respondents to the survey expressed a more pessimistic outlook on the country’s current conditions, as well as their personal current situation. In addition, consumers’ assessment of the five year national outlook also worsened, reaching the lowest level in five months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast participants expect total consumption to grow 5.2% this year, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2014, the panel sees total consumption expanding 4.8%.

OUTLOOK | Business confidence drops to lowest level in more than four yearsIn the second quarter, the business confidence index (IEE, Indice de Expectativas Empresariales) produced by the Santiago Chamber of Commerce (Camara de Comercio de Santiago) dropped to 60.1 points from the 70.9 points recorded in the first quarter. At the current level, the index sits at its lowest point since Q1 2009. Nevertheless, sentiment remains well above the 50-point threshold that separates optimism from pessimism.

The deterioration was broad-based, as all sectors lost ground over the previous quarter, with the commercial sector suffering the largest decline. In its statement, the Chamber of Commerce noted that business confidence suffered a sharp drop relative to the previous quarter, which suggests a spillover effect on the country’s GDP in the second quarter. Moreover, since uncertainty in the global economy seems to have decreased, the downturn in business confidence largely stems from domestic reforms affecting businesses’ future net income.

LatinFocus panellists expect fixed investment to grow 6.7% this year, which is down 1.0 percentage points percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2014, the panel sees fixed investment decelerating to a 6.4% expansion.

MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation jumps in June but remains below Central Bank’s targetIn June, consumer prices jumped 0.6% over the previous month. The figure contrasted the flat reading recorded in May and was slightly above the 0.5% rise expected by market analysts. According to the statistical institute, the monthly jump was mainly due to higher prices for housing, utilities and transport.

Building on the monthly increase, annual headline inflation jumped from 1.0% in May to 1.9% in June and has now reached the highest level since November last year. Nevertheless, at the current level, inflation remains slightly below the plus/minus 1.0 percentage point tolerance margin around the Central Bank’s target of 3.0%.

Meanwhile, the core inflation index, which excludes volatile categories such as oil, fresh fruit and vegetables, grew 0.3% over the previous month. Annual core inflation rose from 1.0% in May to 1.3% in June.

In the latest Monetary Policy Report from June, the Bank sees year-end inflation at 2.6% in 2013 and at 3.0% in 2014. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast



July 2013

panellists expect inflation to close the year at 2.4%, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2014, inflation is expected to increase to 2.9%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Central Bank keeps rates on hold for the 18th month in a rowAt its 11 July meeting, the Central Bank left the policy rate unchanged at 5.00%, a decision that was expected by the market. The last policy change took place in January 2012, with a cut of 25 basis points.

In its statement, the Bank kept its global outlook unchanged from last month, noting that international financial conditions have tightened, in particular with regards to emerging economies, as the market fears a tapering of the quantitative easing program by the United States. The Central Bank acknowledged that the Eurozone remains in recession, growth prospects for China have deteriorated but a recovery is expected in the U.S.

On the domestic front, monetary authorities stated that the economy continues to show decelerating output and demand, in particular in investment. Regarding price developments, the Bank stated that prices for food and metals dropped in recent weeks while fuel prices increased. On the inflation outlook, the board sees headline and core inflation remaining in line with its 3.0% target in the policy horizon. The next policy meeting is scheduled for 13 August.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panellists see the policy rate at 4.71% by the end of the year. Next year, panellists expect the policy rate to end the year at 4.58%.

EXTERNAL SECTOR | Copper prices drop amid global liquidity contraction In June, copper prices dropped 3.4% over the previous month to an average of USD 3.18 per pound (equivalent to USD 7,000 per tonne). The decline comes amid a reduction in global liquidity, as markets increasingly fear a further slowdown in China and also internalize a possible tapering of QE in the United States in the near future. The monthly drop contrasted the 0.2% increase recorded in May.

In annual terms, average copper prices fell 5.7% in June, an improvement over the 8.4% decrease seen in May.

Consensus Forecast panellists expect copper prices to average USD 3.36 per pound this year before moderating to USD 3.22 per pound next year.


Note: Monetary Policy Rate (TMP, Tasa de Politica Monetaria) in %.Source: Chile Central Bank (BCC).

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0


%

Copper Price | USD per Lb.

Note: Cash seller and settlement price.Source: London Metal Exchange (LME).

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0




July 2013


Annual Data 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Real Sector Population (million) 16.8 16.9 17.1 17.2 17.4 17.6 17.7 17.9 18.0 18.1GDP per capita (USD) 10,917 10,455 12,695 14,668 15,400 16,367 16,911 17,745 19,074 20,436GDP (USD bn) 183 177 217 253 268 287 300 317 343 371Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 3.3 -1.0 5.8 5.9 5.6 4.6 4.6 4.8 4.8 4.7Total Consumption (annual var. in %) 4.4 0.8 9.7 7.9 5.8 5.2 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.9Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 5.2 -0.8 10.8 8.9 6.1 - - - - -Government Consumption (ann. var. in %) 0.3 9.2 4.6 3.0 4.2 - - - - -Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) 17.9 -12.1 12.2 14.7 12.3 6.7 6.4 7.6 7.5 6.8Industrial Manufacturing (annual var. in %) 0.2 -6.7 3.2 8.0 2.3 2.8 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.4Supermarket Sales (annual var. in %) 0.9 4.7 6.8 3.2 7.4 5.7 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.2Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 7.5 10.5 8.4 7.2 6.5 6.5 6.7 6.3 6.3 6.2Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 4.7 -4.3 -0.3 1.5 0.6 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1Public Debt (% of GDP) 4.9 5.8 8.6 11.1 11.9 11.3 10.6 12.1 12.3 12.4Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual var. of M2 in %) 19.5 3.1 4.1 12.4 16.0 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual var. in %, eop) 7.1 -2.6 3.0 4.4 1.5 2.4 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0Inflation (CPI, annual var. in %, aop) 8.7 0.4 1.4 3.3 3.0 1.7 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0Inflation (Core, annual var. in %, eop) 8.6 -2.9 2.5 3.3 1.4 - - - - -Inflation (WPI, annual var. in %, eop) -3.6 7.3 5.1 4.5 2.1 - - - - -Monetary Policy Rate (in %, eop) 8.25 0.50 3.12 5.25 5.00 4.71 4.58 4.68 4.70 4.7310-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 5.85 6.34 6.26 5.56 5.51 5.43 5.49 5.55 5.58 5.60Stock Market (variation of IGPA in %) -0.3 -6.4 45.2 26.5 -8.1 - - - - -Exchange Rate (CLP per USD, eop) 638 507 468 520 479 500 515 510 510 507Exchange Rate (CLP per USD, aop) 524 559 510 484 486 488 503 512 510 509External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -3.2 2.0 1.5 -1.3 -3.5 -4.2 -3.9 -2.9 -3.0 -2.8Current Account Balance (USD bn) -5.8 3.5 3.2 -3.3 -9.5 -11.9 -11.8 -9.2 -10.1 -10.3Trade Balance (USD bn) 6.1 15.4 15.6 10.5 3.4 2.3 2.7 2.0 1.3 1.8Exports (USD bn) 64.5 55.5 71.1 81.5 78.3 81.4 85.7 90.3 95.2 101.3Imports (USD bn) 58.4 40.1 55.5 70.9 74.9 79.2 83.4 87.9 93.8 100.6Exports (annual var. in %) -5.9 -14.0 28.2 14.6 -3.9 4.0 5.3 5.3 5.5 6.4Imports (annual var. in %) 31.5 -31.4 38.3 27.8 5.6 5.8 5.3 5.5 6.7 7.2Copper Price (USD per lb, aop) 3.15 2.35 3.43 4.00 3.61 3.36 3.22 3.24 3.21 3.29International Reserves (USD bn) 23.2 25.4 27.9 42.0 41.6 41.9 43.9 45.7 49.0 52.1International Reserves (months of imports) 4.8 7.6 6.0 7.1 6.7 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.3 6.2External Debt (USD bn) 64.8 74.0 86.7 99.4 118.4 117.7 121.5 124.4 129.3 135.8External Debt (% of GDP) 35.4 41.8 40.0 39.3 44.2 41.0 40.6 39.2 37.7 36.6 Quarterly Data Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 5.8 5.7 4.1 4.5 4.5 4.8 4.5 4.8 4.9 4.8Economic Growth (GDP, qoq s.a. var. in %) 0.8 1.9 0.5 - - - - - - -Total Consumption (annual var. in %) 5.4 7.3 5.5 5.3 5.3 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.7Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) 13.4 18.1 9.6 6.5 5.4 4.6 6.6 6.4 6.4 6.5Industrial Manufacturing (annual var. in %) 0.2 2.2 0.5 2.4 3.2 3.6 4.2 4.0 3.9 4.0Supermarket Sales (annual var. in %) 7.7 7.0 7.1 4.9 5.0 4.4 5.6 5.4 5.3 4.4Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 6.5 6.3 6.1 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.5CCS (IEE) Business Confid. Index 67.4 70.2 70.9 60.1 - - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual var. in %, eop) 2.8 1.5 1.5 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.7 3.1 3.0 2.9Monetary Policy Rate (in %, eop) 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.81 4.71 4.74 4.78 4.87 4.5810-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 5.40 5.51 5.54 5.38 5.43 5.43 5.58 5.58 5.59 5.49Exchange Rate (CLP per USD, eop) 475 479 472 508 498 500 500 503 502 515Exchange Rate (CLP per USD, aop) 482 478 472 485 495 499 500 501 502 508Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -7.4 -3.9 -2.3 -2.7 -6.7 -4.2 -2.5 -3.2 -5.2 -3.4Current Account Balance (USD bn) -4.9 -2.9 -1.7 -1.9 -4.6 -3.2 -1.8 -2.3 -3.8 -2.7Trade Balance (USD bn) -1.8 1.0 0.8 1.6 0.0 0.5 2.1 1.5 0.0 1.1Exports (USD bn) 17.3 21.3 19.1 20.6 20.0 21.6 21.5 21.5 21.1 23.2Imports (USD bn) 19.2 20.4 18.3 19.0 20.0 21.1 19.4 20.0 21.1 22.1 Monthly Data Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13Economic Activity (IMACEC, annual var. in %) 4.5 6.3 5.5 5.2 6.0 3.4 3.0 4.4 3.5 -Industrial Manufacturing (annual var. in %) -5.7 8.7 0.8 -2.5 4.1 0.9 -3.0 3.8 -4.2 -Unemployment (% of active population) 6.5 6.6 6.2 6.1 6.0 6.2 6.2 6.4 6.4 -Consumer Confid. Index (50-point threshold) 53.6 52.7 53.4 58.1 58.0 58.1 56.8 59.2 55.2 -Business Confid. Index (50-point threshold) 59.5 59.7 59.4 58.2 58.5 58.9 58.4 57.8 57.3 53.0Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.8 0.6 -0.5 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 -0.5 0.0 0.6Inflation (CPI, annual var. in %) 2.8 2.9 2.1 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.9Exchange Rate (CLP per USD, eop) 475 481 481 479 471 473 472 472 500 508Copper Price (USD per lb, aop) 3.67 3.66 3.50 3.61 3.65 3.66 3.47 3.28 3.29 3.18Exports (annual var. in %) -13.3 11.4 -2.7 1.8 7.3 -9.2 -9.8 5.0 12.6 -3.7



July 2013

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

< 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.6 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.6 > 5.6


1 | Real GDP | 2000-2017 | var. in %


2 | Real GDP | Q1 10-Q4 14 | var. in % Real GDP growth in %


Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2017 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.1 GDP, real annual variation in %. 2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.3 GDP, evolution of 2013 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 GDP, panellist distribution of 2013 forecasts. Concentration of panellists in forecast interval in


Individual Forecasts 2013 2014Banchile Inversiones 4.4 4.6Banco Bradesco 5.4 5.2BBVA Research 4.5 -BCI 4.5 -BICE Inversiones 4.5 5.2BofA Merrill Lynch 4.4 4.0BTG Pactual 3.9 4.0Cámara Com. Santiago 4.4 4.5Capital Economics 4.3 4.0Citigroup Global Mkts 4.8 5.1CorpResearch 4.6 4.5Credicorp Capital 5.0 4.8Credit Suisse 4.6 3.7Deutsche Bank 4.7 5.2Econsult 4.5 4.8EIU 4.7 5.0GBM Securities 4.7 4.8Goldman Sachs 4.1 4.1HSBC 4.5 4.7Inversiones Security 4.0 -Itaú BBA 4.5 4.7JPMorgan 4.3 4.0Nomura 5.0 5.0Oxford Economics 4.2 4.5Santander 4.7 4.2UBS 5.4 4.9SummaryMinimum 3.9 3.7Maximum 5.4 5.2Median 4.5 4.7Consensus 4.6 4.6History30 days ago 4.8 4.660 days ago 5.0 4.890 days ago 5.0 4.8Additional ForecastsCentral Bank (June 2013) 4.0-5.0 -IMF (Apr. 2013) 4.4 4.6OECD (May 2013) 4.9 5.3

-5

0

5

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

ChileLatin AmericaWorld

0

4

8

12

Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14

ChileLatin AmericaWorld

3

4

5

6



3

4

5

6






July 2013



6

7

8

9

10


2013 2014


-20

0

20

40

2000 2005 2010 2015

ChileLatin America


4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0


2013 2014


-2

1

4

7

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

ChileLatin America


Individual Forecasts 2013 2014 2013 2014Banchile Inversiones 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.8Banco Bradesco - - - -BBVA Research 5.1 - 5.2 -BCI 5.8 - 4.0 -BICE Inversiones 5.1 5.2 7.8 4.8BofA Merrill Lynch 4.8 4.3 9.7 1.0BTG Pactual 4.9 4.2 4.0 2.6Cámara Com. Santiago 5.3 4.9 8.0 9.5Capital Economics 4.8 4.0 7.5 6.0Citigroup Global Mkts 5.1 5.2 5.7 8.3CorpResearch 5.0 4.5 6.0 6.0Credicorp Capital 4.8 4.7 8.8 7.2Credit Suisse - - 6.8 4.5Deutsche Bank - - 6.5 8.2Econsult 5.2 - 5.3 -EIU 5.4 4.8 8.0 7.5GBM Securities 5.5 5.0 8.5 10.0Goldman Sachs - - - -HSBC 5.9 5.5 7.8 6.5Inversiones Security 5.7 - 6.3 -Itaú BBA - - - -JPMorgan - - - -Nomura 5.5 5.5 8.0 7.0Oxford Economics 5.2 4.4 6.4 8.3Santander - - - -UBS - - - -SummaryMinimum 4.8 4.0 4.0 1.0Maximum 5.9 5.5 9.7 10.0Median 5.2 4.8 6.7 6.7Consensus 5.2 4.8 6.7 6.4History30 days ago 5.3 4.9 7.7 6.560 days ago 5.4 4.9 8.4 6.990 days ago 5.4 4.8 8.9 7.0

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2017 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.6 Total consumption, annual variation in %. 7 Total consumption, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.9 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.




July 2013


Industry Unemployment Fiscal Balancevariation in % % of active pop. % of GDP

Individual Forecasts 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014Banchile Inversiones - - 6.8 7.3 -0.5 -Banco Bradesco - - - - - -BBVA Research 3.0 - 6.8 - -0.5 -BCI - - - - - -BICE Inversiones 0.9 3.5 6.5 6.4 - -BofA Merrill Lynch - - - - -0.7 -3.1BTG Pactual - - 6.7 7.3 -1.0 -1.6Cámara Com. Santiago 2.0 4.0 6.3 6.2 0.3 0.1Capital Economics 3.5 3.5 6.5 7.0 0.0 -0.4Citigroup Global Mkts - - 6.2 6.5 -0.3 -0.4CorpResearch 2.9 2.9 6.9 7.0 -0.6 -0.2Credicorp Capital 3.2 3.0 6.1 5.9 -0.7 -0.5Credit Suisse - - 6.7 7.1 -0.3 -0.9Deutsche Bank 3.5 4.2 7.6 7.8 -0.9 1.0Econsult - - 6.2 - - -EIU 3.0 3.3 - - 1.1 0.7GBM Securities 3.5 5.0 6.2 6.1 - -Goldman Sachs - - - - 0.5 0.5HSBC 4.0 4.5 6.5 6.7 0.6 0.4Inversiones Security 2.0 - 6.5 - 0.0 -Itaú BBA - - 6.2 6.2 0.2 0.0JPMorgan - - - - -0.7 -0.7Nomura - - - - 1.0 1.0Oxford Economics 2.3 4.0 6.4 6.2 0.5 -0.2Santander - - - - - -UBS - - 5.8 6.2 0.7 0.7SummaryMinimum 0.9 2.9 5.8 5.9 -1.0 -3.1Maximum 4.0 5.0 7.6 7.8 1.1 1.0Median 3.0 3.8 6.5 6.5 -0.1 -0.2Consensus 2.8 3.8 6.5 6.7 -0.1 -0.2History30 days ago 3.1 3.9 6.4 6.5 0.0 -0.160 days ago 3.4 3.9 6.4 6.4 0.2 0.290 days ago 3.4 4.0 6.5 6.6 0.3 0.2

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2017 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas) and the Ministry of Finance (Ministerio de Hacienda). See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.10 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: INE.11 Industrial production, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.12 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: INE.13 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: Ministry of Finance.



-5

0

5

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

Chile

Latin America


4

6

8

10

12

2000 2005 2010 2015

ChileLatin America


2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5


2013 2014


-10

-5

0

5

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

Chile

Latin America



July 2013

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

< 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.5 3.8 > 3.8


14 | Inflation | 2000 - 2017 | in %


15 | Inflation | Q1 10-Q4 14 | in %


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2017 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.14 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop). 15 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop).16 Inflation, evolution of 2013 forecasts during the last 18 months.17 Inflation, evolution of 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.18 Inflation, panellist distribution of 2013 forecasts. Concentration of panellists in forecast


Individual Forecasts 2013 2014Banchile Inversiones 2.2 3.0Banco Bradesco - -BBVA Research 2.5 -BCI 2.3 -BICE Inversiones 2.6 2.9BofA Merrill Lynch 2.4 2.7BTG Pactual 2.4 2.6Cámara Com. Santiago 2.4 3.0Capital Economics 2.0 2.5Citigroup Global Mkts 2.8 3.0CorpResearch 2.4 3.0Credicorp Capital 2.6 2.8Credit Suisse 2.0 2.9Deutsche Bank 2.3 3.0Econsult 2.8 3.0EIU 2.3 3.3GBM Securities 2.3 3.2Goldman Sachs 2.5 2.9HSBC 2.2 3.0Inversiones Security 2.2 -Itaú BBA 2.2 2.8JPMorgan 2.2 3.9Nomura 2.5 3.0Oxford Economics - -Santander 2.2 2.5UBS 3.0 2.5SummaryMinimum 2.0 2.5Maximum 3.0 3.9Median 2.4 3.0Consensus 2.4 2.9History30 days ago 2.4 2.960 days ago 2.6 3.090 days ago 2.8 3.0Additional ForecastsCentral Bank (June 2013) 2.6 3.0IMF (Apr. 2013) 3.0 3.0OECD (May 2013) 2.0 2.9



1

2

3

4

5



-5

0

5

10

15

2000 2005 2010 2015

ChileLatin America

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0



0

2

4

6

8

Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14

ChileLatin America



July 2013

0%

20%

40%

60%

< 4.00 4.25 4.50 4.75 5.00 5.25 5.50 5.75 > 5.75


19 | Interest Rate | 2000 - 2017 | in %




Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2017 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the Central Bank (BCC, Banco Central de Chile). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.19 Interest rate, Central Bank monetary policy rate in % (eop).20 Quarterly interest rate, Central Bank monetary policy rate in % (eop).21 Interest rate, evolution of 2013 forecasts during the last 18 months.22 Interest rate, evolution of 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.23 Interest rate, panellist distribution of 2013 forecasts. Concentration of panellists in forecast


Individual Forecasts 2013 2014Banchile Inversiones 5.00 5.00Banco Bradesco - -BBVA Research 5.00 -BCI 4.75 -BICE Inversiones 5.00 5.00BofA Merrill Lynch 4.50 4.00BTG Pactual 4.25 4.00Cámara Com. Santiago 4.50 4.50Capital Economics 4.50 4.00Citigroup Global Mkts 4.50 5.25CorpResearch 4.50 4.50Credicorp Capital 5.00 5.00Credit Suisse 4.50 3.00Deutsche Bank 5.00 5.00Econsult 5.00 5.25EIU - -GBM Securities 5.00 5.00Goldman Sachs - -HSBC 4.50 4.50Inversiones Security 4.50 -Itaú BBA 4.50 4.25JPMorgan - -Nomura 5.00 5.25Oxford Economics - -Santander 4.50 4.00UBS 5.00 5.00SummaryMinimum 4.25 3.00Maximum 5.00 5.25Median 4.50 4.75Consensus 4.71 4.58History30 days ago 4.76 4.6960 days ago 4.94 5.0490 days ago 5.04 5.08



3

4

5

6



0

5

10

15

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

Chile

Latin America

2

4

6

8



0

4

8

12

Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14

Chile

Latin America



July 2013

0%

10%

20%

30%

< 440 455 470 485 500 515 530 545 > 545


24 | Exchange Rate | CLP per USD

26 | CLP per USD 2013 | evol. of fcst

25 | Exchange Rate | CLP per USD

27 | CLP per USD 2014 | evol. of fcst

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2017 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from Thomson Reuters. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.24 Exchange rate, CLP per USD (eop).25 Quarterly exchange rate, CLP per USD (eop).26 Exchange rate, evolution of 2013 forecast during the last 18 months.27 Exchange rate, evolution of 2014 forecast during the last 18 months.28 Exchange rate, panellist distribution of 2013 forecasts. Concentration of panellists in forecast


Individual Forecasts 2013 2014Banchile Inversiones 505 520Banco Bradesco - -BBVA Research - -BCI - -BICE Inversiones 518 555BofA Merrill Lynch 510 520BTG Pactual 530 540Cámara Com. Santiago 510 525Capital Economics 520 540Citigroup Global Mkts 480 490CorpResearch 500 510Credicorp Capital 482 487Credit Suisse 520 530Deutsche Bank 502 500Econsult 489 512EIU 507 517GBM Securities 482 486Goldman Sachs 520 523HSBC 500 510Inversiones Security 520 -Itaú BBA 510 525JPMorgan 475 -Nomura 460 470Oxford Economics 487 493Santander 500 540UBS 480 525SummaryMinimum 460 470Maximum 530 555Median 502 520Consensus 500 515History30 days ago 490 50560 days ago 480 49290 days ago 482 492

28 | CLP per USD 2013 | Panellist Distribution

Exchange Rate | CLP per USD

400

450

500

550

600



400

500

600

700

800

2000 2005 2010 2015

400

450

500

550

600



450

475

500

525

550

Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14



July 2013


2

4

6

8

10


2013 2014


0

50

100

150

2000 2005 2010 2015

Trade BalanceImportsExports


-6

-2

2

6

2000 2005 2010 2015

ChileLatin America


-6

-4

-2

0


2013

2014



% of GDP USD bnIndividual Forecasts 2013 2014 2013 2014Banchile Inversiones -4.4 -4.0 -0.3 -0.3Banco Bradesco - - - -BBVA Research -5.0 - - -BCI -4.0 - 2.2 -BICE Inversiones -3.7 -4.6 1.1 0.2BofA Merrill Lynch -4.6 -4.0 -1.0 -0.9BTG Pactual -4.0 -3.9 4.2 4.4Cámara Com. Santiago -4.8 -5.9 -1.4 -5.8Capital Economics -4.1 -3.6 2.6 3.8Citigroup Global Mkts -2.4 -2.5 5.9 8.1CorpResearch -2.5 -2.0 5.0 5.0Credicorp Capital -3.5 -3.7 4.0 4.0Credit Suisse -4.2 -4.4 - -Deutsche Bank -4.0 -2.8 5.0 7.0Econsult -4.7 - 0.6 -EIU -4.5 -3.8 0.8 2.9GBM Securities -4.0 -3.3 3.7 3.6Goldman Sachs -4.7 -5.0 2.1 1.8HSBC -4.3 -4.6 2.1 1.8Inversiones Security -3.7 - -0.1 -Itaú BBA -5.0 -5.3 - -JPMorgan -5.2 -3.7 4.9 7.1Nomura -4.0 -4.0 - -Oxford Economics - - 2.8 0.8Santander - - - -UBS -4.4 -3.8 - -SummaryMinimum -5.2 -5.9 -1.4 -5.8Maximum -2.4 -2.0 5.9 8.1Median -4.2 -3.9 2.2 3.3Consensus -4.2 -3.9 2.3 2.7History30 days ago -4.0 -3.9 2.2 2.360 days ago -4.0 -3.6 2.4 2.490 days ago -4.0 -3.5 2.7 3.0

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2017 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BCC, Banco Central de Chile). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.29 Current account balance, as % of GDP. 30 Current account balance, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.31 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD. 32 Trade balance, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.



July 2013



Individual Forecasts 2013 2014 2013 2014Banchile Inversiones 77.2 79.3 77.5 79.6Banco Bradesco - - - -BBVA Research - - - -BCI 80.7 - 78.5 -BICE Inversiones 89.6 94.2 88.5 94.0BofA Merrill Lynch 80.0 82.4 81.0 83.3BTG Pactual 78.4 77.8 74.2 73.4Cámara Com. Santiago 78.0 83.0 79.4 88.8Capital Economics 82.0 90.3 79.4 86.5Citigroup Global Mkts 87.3 91.1 81.4 82.9CorpResearch 77.0 75.0 72.0 70.0Credicorp Capital - - - -Credit Suisse - - - -Deutsche Bank 84.0 88.0 79.0 81.0Econsult - - - -EIU 80.6 89.1 79.8 86.1GBM Securities 78.9 85.1 75.2 81.5Goldman Sachs 82.1 87.9 80.0 86.1HSBC 82.6 87.3 80.5 85.5Inversiones Security 78.5 - 78.6 -Itaú BBA - - - -JPMorgan 88.2 95.4 83.3 88.3Nomura - - - -Oxford Economics 80.2 83.2 77.5 82.4Santander - - - -UBS 79.5 82.4 79.4 84.3SummaryMinimum 77.0 75.0 72.0 70.0Maximum 89.6 95.4 88.5 94.0Median 80.4 86.2 79.4 83.8Consensus 81.4 85.7 79.2 83.4History30 days ago 80.8 85.3 78.5 83.060 days ago 81.7 85.9 79.2 83.790 days ago 83.6 88.6 80.9 85.6

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2017 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BCC, Banco Central de Chile). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.33 Exports, annual variation in %. 34 Exports, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.35 Imports, annual variation in %. 36 Imports, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.

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105


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130


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Latin America


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2013 2014



USD bn USD bnIndividual Forecasts 2013 2014 2013 2014Banchile Inversiones 41.9 42.7 - -Banco Bradesco - - - -BBVA Research 42.0 - - -BCI - - - -BICE Inversiones - - - -BofA Merrill Lynch 42.5 43.3 - -BTG Pactual - - - -Cámara Com. Santiago 41.8 43.8 110 115Capital Economics 42.0 43.0 - -Citigroup Global Mkts 44.1 46.3 129 135CorpResearch - - - -Credicorp Capital - - - -Credit Suisse 41.0 43.5 124 131Deutsche Bank 41.3 42.0 118 97Econsult - - - -EIU 41.8 44.1 122 127GBM Securities 43.0 44.2 - -Goldman Sachs 39.3 43.3 118 130HSBC - - 122 124Inversiones Security 41.0 - 108 -Itaú BBA 43.0 45.0 - -JPMorgan - - - -Nomura - - - -Oxford Economics 41.8 46.2 109 114Santander - - - -UBS - - - -SummaryMinimum 39.3 42.0 108 97Maximum 44.1 46.3 129 135Median 41.9 43.6 118 125Consensus 41.9 43.9 118 122History30 days ago 42.6 44.0 116 12160 days ago 43.4 45.0 115 12090 days ago 42.9 45.3 116 121

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2017 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BCC, Banco Central de Chile). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.38 International reserves, months of imports. 39 International reserves, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.40 External debt as % of GDP. 41 External debt, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.



July 2013

Chile in the Region


Fact Sheet

Chile4.8%

Brazil40.6%

Mexico21.2%

Argentina8.6%

Venezuela6.9%

Other18.0%

Chile3.1%

Brazil34.6%

Mexico20.2%

Colombia8.2%

Argentina7.2%

Other26.6%

U.S.A.21.9%

EU-2713.2%

Other Asia ex-Japan

6.9%China18.2%

Other LatAm12.9%

Argentina6.7%

Brazil6.5%

Other13.7%

U.S.A.12.2%

Japan10.6%

EU-2715.1%

Other Asia ex-Japan

6.8%China23.9%

Korea5.8%

Other LatAm11.7%

Brazil5.5%

Other8.5%

Other2.7%


Mineral Fuels23.0%

Food7.2%

Other1.1%


Ores & Metals62.0%

Agric. Raw Mat.

5.2%

Food18.4%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

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1002003-05 2006-08 2009-11

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Agriculture

Manufacturing

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Services

General Data


Political Data



• Market oriented policy firmly • High dependence on copperanchored exports• Structurally sound and prudent • Relatively small domesticfiscal policy market• Free trade agreements with • Privatisation of state-ownedmajor economic areas copper giant CODELCO not• Low import tariffs have created on agendacompetitive industry .

Energy (2010) Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 344Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 1,333Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 57.9Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 53.9Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 17.2Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 322CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 68.8

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: Aa3 StableS&P: AA- StableFitch Ratings: A+ Stable


Transportation (2012) Airports: 476Railways (km): 7,082Roadways (km): 77,764Chief Ports: Valparaiso, Arica

Official name: Republic of ChileCapital: Santiago (5.8 m)Other cities: Valparaiso (0.9 m)

Concepcion (0.9 m)Area (km2): 756,950Population (million, 2012 est.): 17.4Population density (per km2, 2012 est.): 23.0Population growth rate (%, 2012 est.): 0.9Life expectancy (years, 2012 est.): 78.1Illiteracy rate (%, 2002): 4.3Language: SpanishMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT-4

President: Sebastian PiñeraLast elections: 17 January 2010Next elections: 17 November 2013Central Bank President: Rodrigo Vergara Montes

FOCUSECONOMICS Colombia


July 2013

REAL SECTOR | GDP slows in the first quarterIn the first quarter, GDP grew 2.8% over the same quarter last year. The figure undershot both the 3.1% expansion observed in the last quarter of 2012 (previously reported: +2.1% year-on-year) and the 3.1% increase projected by last month’s LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

The deceleration seen in the first quarter was caused by a weaker performance of domestic demand. Total consumption grew only 3.5% in the first quarter (Q4 2012: +5.0% yoy), dragged down by lower growth in both private consumption (Q4: +4.6% yoy; Q1: +3.2% yoy) and government spending (Q4: +6.5% yoy; Q1: +4.6% yoy). On the upside, fixed investment expanded 7.2%, up from the 3.8% increase seen in Q4.

Meanwhile, the external sector improved over the previous quarter, as exports fell 1.2% (Q4: +1.4% yoy), while imports contracted 0.2%, after having expanded a strong 2.9% in Q4. As a result, the external sector’s net contribution to overall growth improved from minus 0.5 percentage points in the fourth quarter to minus 0.2 percentage points in the first.

A quarter-on-quarter comparison corroborates the deceleration suggested by the annual data, as the economy expanded 0.3% over the previous quarter in seasonally adjusted terms, which was well below the 1.7% increase recorded in the fourth quarter.

The Central Bank projects economic growth to rise between 3.0% and 5.0% this year, while the government expects the economy to expand between

The economy lost some steam in the first quarter, with GDP expanding 2.8% over the same period last year, down from the 3.1% rise witnessed in the last quarter of 2012. The slowdown was the result of a weaker performance of domestic demand. More recent data paint a mixed picture, as industrial production expanded the most in 20 months in April and consumer confidence hit its highest level in over one year in June, whereas exports declined for the fourth consecutive month in May.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panellists see the economy growing 4.0% in 2013, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2014, the panel sees economic growth at 4.6%.

In June, inflation rose to 2.2% from 2.0% in May. At its latest meeting on 28 June, the Central Bank left the policy rate unchanged at 3.25%. Panellists expect inflation to close 2013 at 2.6%, before accelerating to 3.1% in 2014.

Outlook moderates


2009-11 2012-14 2015-17Population (million): 45.5 47.2 48.9GDP (USD bn): 286 385 473GDP per capita (USD): 6,274 8,165 9,694GDP growth (%): 4.1 4.2 4.9Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -3.1 -1.5 -1.1Public Debt (% of GDP): 33.8 31.7 29.5Inflation (%): 3.3 2.8 3.1Current Account (% of GDP): -2.7 -3.3 -3.0External Debt (% of GDP): 22.7 22.0 20.8

ColombiaColombia


Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.Source: Colombia National Statistical Institute (DANE) and LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

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Ricard TornéSenior Economist



July 2013

4.4% and 4.5% in the same period. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panellists expect GDP to grow 4.0% in 2013, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. For next year, the panel sees economic growth at 4.6%.

REAL SECTOR | Industrial production rebounds strongly in AprilIn April, industrial production (excluding coffee threshing) expanded the most in 20 months, jumping 8.4% over the same month last year. The reading contrasted the 11.7% fall recorded in March (previously reported: -11.4% year-on-year), which had marked the sharpest drop since April 2009. Moreover, the print overshot market expectations that had industrial production rising 4.3%. The monthly figure reflects increases in 36 out of the 48 sub-categories composing the index, with vehicles production as well as oil output recording the largest gains.

Building on the strong rebound, the trend now points upwards, with annual average variation in industrial production rising from minus 2.0% in March to minus 1.1% in April.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast participants anticipate industrial production to rise 1.5% in 2013, which is down 0.6 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2014, the panel expects industrial production to expand 3.6%.

OUTLOOK | Consumer confidence hits highest level in over one year in JuneThe Fedesarrollo index of consumer sentiment improved markedly in June, rising from 20.1 points in May to 27.4 points, which represents the highest reading witnessed since January 2012. As a result, consumer confidence sits 6.8 points above the level seen in the same month last year and it moves further away from the 0-point threshold that separates pessimistic from optimistic territory.

The monthly improvement in consumer sentiment mainly reflects a strong rise in the economic conditions sub-index, which soared from 14.7 in May to 25.2 points in June. In addition, consumption expectations also recorded a substantial expansion, increasing from 23.7 points in May to 28.8 points in June.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast participants expect total consumption to expand 4.1% this year, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For next year, the panel sees total consumption rising 4.5%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation hits six-month high in June In June, consumer prices rose 0.23% over the previous month. The figure was slightly below the 0.28% increase tallied in May but overshot the 0.21% rise expected by LatinFocus panellists. The monthly figure mainly reflected higher prices for recreation as well as for housing.

Building on the monthly price rise, annual headline inflation rose from 2.0% in May to 2.2%, which marks the highest level observed since December 2012. The core inflation index, which excludes volatile items such as fresh food and fuels, added 0.31% month-on-month in June (May: +0.14% mom). As a result, annual core inflation inched up from 2.7% in May to 2.8% in June, thus remaining well anchored within the Central Bank’s target of 3.0%, with a plus/minus 1.0 percentage-point tolerance margin.


Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month variation of cons. price index in %.Source: Colombia National Statistical Institute (DANE).

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Note: Year-on-year changes of industrial production and annual average growth rate in %.Source: Colombia National Statistical Institute (DANE) and FocusEconomics calculations.

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Consumer Confidence

Note: Index of consumer sentiment. Values above 0 indicate optimistic perception, below 0 indicate negative perception.Source: Fedesarrollo.

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July 2013

The government sees inflation at 3.0% in 2013. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast participants anticipate inflation will close the year at 2.6%, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For next year, the panel expects inflation to end the year at 3.1%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Central Bank maintains key policy rate unchanged At its latest monetary policy meeting on 28 June, the Central Bank (BanRep) kept its reference interest rate at 3.25%, in a decision widely expected by LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panellists. The key policy rate has remained on hold since March and, at the current level, sits at its lowest point since February 2011.

BanRep acknowledged that growth prospects in the United States and Japan remain somewhat bright, while the economic downturn in the Euro area will last longer than previously thought. Moreover, the Central Bank noted that the possibility that the Fed will taper its QE program sooner than expected has unnerved financial markets, driving up bond yields and strengthening the greenback. On the domestic front, monetary authorities stated that domestic demand slowed in the first quarter, albeit in line with the Bank’s projections, whereas recent economic indicators point to a pick-up in activity in the second quarter.

Regarding price developments, the Central Bank stated that both current inflation as well as inflation expectations remain well anchored below the Bank’s target of 3%, with a tolerance margin of plus/minus 1.0 percentage points. The next policy meeting is scheduled for 26 July.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panellists see the policy rate at 3.31% by the end of 2013. For next year, panellists expect the policy rate to end the year at 4.41%.

EXTERNAL SECTOR | Exports decline for fourth consecutive month in MayIn May, exports fell 2.5% over the same month last year, which represents a deterioration over the 1.2% decline seen in April. Moreover, the print, which contrasted market expectations of a 0.3% rise, marks the fourth consecutive drop. The deterioration was mainly due to a decline in shipments of agricultural, food and beverage products. As a result of the monthly drop, in the 12 months up to May exports contracted 2.6% over the same period last year (April: -2.0% yoy).

Meanwhile, imports jumped 16.5% in April – the latest month for which data are available – which contrasted the 10.3% decline recorded in March. Consequently, in the 12 months up to April, imports increased 6.3% in annual terms, which represents an acceleration over the 5.5% rise witnessed in March. As a result, the trade balance reached a USD 218 million deficit in April, which prompted the 12-month moving sum of the trade deficit to widen from USD 0.4 billion in March to USD 1.2 billion in April.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panellists estimate exports will expand 5.3% this year, while the trade surplus will reach USD 2.0 billion. Next year, the panel expects exports to grow 11.7%, driving the trade surplus to widen to USD 2.9 billion.

Exports | variation in %

Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation in %.Source: Colombia National Statistical Office (DANE).

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Note: Central Bank policy rate in %.Source: Colombia Central Bank.

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July 2013


Annual Data 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Real Sector Population (million) 44.5 45.0 45.5 46.1 46.6 47.2 47.7 48.3 48.9 49.4GDP per capita (USD) 5,487 5,209 6,308 7,304 7,910 8,144 8,441 9,042 9,690 10,351GDP (USD bn) 244 234 287 336 369 384 402 436 472 510Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 3.5 1.7 4.0 6.6 4.0 4.0 4.6 4.7 4.9 4.9Domestic Demand (annual var. in %) 4.7 0.2 5.6 8.4 5.1 5.0 5.3 5.4 5.7 5.8Total Consumption (annual var. in %) 3.5 1.6 5.1 5.4 4.8 4.1 4.5 4.4 4.7 4.9Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 3.5 0.6 5.0 5.9 4.7 - - - - -Government Consumption (annual var. in %) 3.3 5.9 5.6 3.6 5.1 - - - - -Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) 9.9 -1.3 4.9 18.7 6.1 7.3 8.4 9.0 8.7 8.1Industrial Production (annual var. in %) -3.5 -4.7 4.0 4.8 0.0 1.5 3.6 4.0 4.1 4.2Retail Sales (annual var. in %) 1.2 -0.1 8.1 7.8 4.2 4.0 4.9 5.1 5.6 5.7Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 11.3 12.0 11.8 10.8 10.4 9.9 9.6 9.7 9.5 9.3Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -1.7 -3.8 -3.5 -2.1 -1.3 -1.6 -1.5 -1.3 -1.1 -1.0Public Debt (% of GDP) 30.5 33.8 34.4 33.2 31.7 32.5 30.9 30.3 29.6 28.4Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual var. of M2 in %) 17.1 5.4 10.2 18.9 16.5 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual var. in %, eop) 7.7 2.0 3.2 3.7 2.4 2.6 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0Inflation (CPI, annual var. in %, aop) 7.0 4.2 2.3 3.4 3.2 2.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0Inflation (Core, annual var. in %, eop) 7.3 3.7 3.2 3.9 3.2 - - - - -Inflation (PPI, annual var. in %, eop) 9.0 -2.2 4.4 5.5 -3.0 - - - - -Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) 9.50 3.50 3.00 4.75 4.25 3.31 4.41 5.15 5.29 5.2890-day DTF (%, eop) 9.82 4.11 3.47 4.98 5.27 4.13 4.94 5.41 5.59 5.6910-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 10.63 8.50 7.68 7.63 5.55 5.60 5.72 5.73 5.55 5.70Stock Market (IGBC variation in %) -29.3 53.5 33.6 -18.3 16.2 - - - - -Exchange Rate (COP per USD, eop) 2,249 2,043 1,920 1,939 1,767 1,887 1,888 1,875 1,875 1,875Exchange Rate (COP per USD, aop) 1,968 2,154 1,898 1,848 1,797 1,839 1,890 1,882 1,875 1,875External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -2.8 -2.1 -3.1 -2.9 -3.2 -3.4 -3.2 -3.1 -3.0 -2.8Current Account Balance (USD bn) -6.7 -5.0 -8.8 -9.6 -11.9 -12.9 -12.8 -13.7 -14.0 -14.0Trade Balance (USD bn) -2.0 0.0 -0.8 2.7 1.2 2.0 2.9 2.9 1.8 1.6Exports (USD bn) 37.6 32.8 39.7 57.4 60.7 63.9 71.4 77.8 83.0 87.9Imports (USD bn) 39.7 32.9 40.5 54.2 59.1 62.1 68.6 75.5 81.9 87.5Exports (annual var. in %) 25.5 -12.7 20.9 44.4 5.7 5.3 11.7 9.1 6.6 5.9Imports (annual var. in %) 20.6 -17.1 23.1 34.0 9.0 5.0 10.5 10.1 8.5 6.9International Reserves (USD bn) 24.0 25.4 28.5 32.3 37.5 42.9 46.6 49.3 51.2 54.4International Reserves (months of imports) 7.3 9.3 8.4 7.1 7.6 8.3 8.2 7.8 7.5 7.5External Debt (USD bn) 46.4 53.7 64.7 75.9 79.1 84.5 90.2 94.0 97.2 103.5External Debt (% of GDP) 19.0 22.9 22.5 22.6 21.5 22.0 22.4 21.6 20.6 20.3 Quarterly Data Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 2.8 3.1 2.8 3.6 4.7 4.8 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.7Economic Growth (GDP, s.a. qoq var. in %) -0.4 1.7 0.3 - - - - - - -Total Consumption (annual var. in %) 4.6 5.0 3.5 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.5 4.6 4.1Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) 1.3 3.8 7.2 4.2 9.4 8.2 9.1 7.9 8.1 8.6Industrial Production (annual var. in %) -0.2 -1.9 -6.3 2.9 3.5 5.9 3.3 3.2 3.6 4.2Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 10.2 9.2 11.4 9.9 9.3 9.2 9.9 9.7 9.6 9.4Inflation (CPI, annual var. in %, eop) 3.1 2.4 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.6 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) 4.75 4.25 3.25 3.25 3.27 3.31 3.59 3.97 4.15 4.4190-day DTF (%, eop) 5.20 5.27 4.55 3.99 4.06 4.13 4.36 4.59 4.89 4.94Exchange Rate (COP per USD, eop) 1,800 1,767 1,825 1,922 1,868 1,887 1,889 1,892 1,894 1,888Exchange Rate (COP per USD, aop) 1,798 1,806 1,792 1,862 1,861 1,877 1,888 1,890 1,893 1,891Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -3.9 -3.5 -3.1 -3.1 -3.8 -3.3 -3.3 -3.2 -3.1 -2.7Current Account Balance (USD bn) -3.5 -3.3 -3.0 -3.0 -3.6 -3.2 -3.2 -3.2 -3.1 -2.8Trade Balance (USD bn) -0.7 0.3 -0.1 1.0 0.3 0.4 1.2 0.6 0.6 0.1Exports (USD bn) 14.5 15.2 14.1 16.4 16.5 17.0 17.9 17.5 17.8 18.5Imports (USD bn) 15.1 14.9 14.2 15.4 16.1 16.6 16.7 16.9 17.2 18.4 Monthly Data Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13Industrial Production (annual var. in %) -1.3 1.3 -3.9 -3.0 -1.7 -4.8 -11.7 8.4 - -Unemployment (% of active population) 9.9 8.9 9.3 9.6 12.1 11.8 10.2 10.2 9.4 -Cons. Conf. Index (0-point threshold) 25.0 25.6 25.3 21.5 23.1 14.9 14.8 23.7 20.1 27.4Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.29 0.16 -0.14 0.09 0.30 0.44 0.21 0.25 0.28 0.23Inflation (CPI, annual var. in %) 3.1 3.1 2.8 2.4 2.0 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.2Exchange Rate (COP per USD, eop) 1,800 1,832 1,815 1,767 1,775 1,813 1,825 1,825 1,904 1,922Exports (annual variation in %) 7.2 13.8 -6.6 -6.6 0.0 -6.6 -19.2 -1.2 -2.5 -



July 2013

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1 | Real GDP | 2000 - 2017 | var. in %




Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2017 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (DANE, Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadistica). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.1 GDP, real annual variation in %. 2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.3 GDP, evolution of 2013 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 GDP, panellist distribution of 2013 forecasts. Concentration of panellists in forecast interval in


Individual Forecasts 2013 2014ANIF 3.8 4.5Banco Bradesco 4.3 4.6Banco CorpBanca 3.9 4.4Banco de Bogotá 3.9 4.5Bancolombia 4.2 4.4Barclays Capital 4.2 4.5BBVA Research 4.1 5.0BofA Merrill Lynch 4.1 5.4BTG Pactual 3.8 4.5Capital Economics 3.5 4.0Citigroup Global Mkts 3.8 4.5Corficolombiana 4.5 5.5Corredores Asociados 4.2 4.9Credicorp Capital 4.7 4.7Credit Suisse 4.4 4.5Deutsche Bank 4.2 5.0EIU 4.3 4.5Fedesarrollo 3.8 4.5Goldman Sachs 4.2 4.8Helm Bank 4.5 5.0HSBC 4.0 4.5Itaú BBA 3.8 4.7JPMorgan 3.3 4.5Nomura 3.8 4.5Polinomics 4.0 4.5RBS 4.5 -Santander 3.7 4.8UBS 3.9 4.7Ultrabursátiles 4.0 4.3SummaryMinimum 3.3 4.0Maximum 4.7 5.5Median 4.0 4.5Consensus 4.0 4.6History30 days ago 4.1 4.760 days ago 4.1 4.790 days ago 4.1 4.8Additional ForecastsIMF (Apr. 2013) 4.1 4.5Central Bank (Apr. 2013) 3.0-5.0 -World Bank (June 2013) 3.9 4.2

-5

0

5

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

ColombiaLatin AmericaWorld

0

3

6

9

Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14

ColombiaLatin AmericaWorld

3

4

5

6



3

4

5

6

7






July 2013



7

8

9

10


2013 2014


-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

ColombiaLatin America


4.0

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8


2013 2014


0

2

4

6

8

2000 2005 2010 2015



Individual Forecasts 2013 2014 2013 2014ANIF 3.7 3.9 7.9 7.2Banco Bradesco - - - -Banco CorpBanca - - - -Banco de Bogotá 3.6 - - -Bancolombia 4.3 - 8.4 -Barclays Capital 4.0 4.0 5.5 6.0BBVA Research 3.7 4.2 6.0 8.4BofA Merrill Lynch 4.4 4.5 6.2 11.8BTG Pactual 3.4 4.5 5.8 5.4Capital Economics - - 7.5 10.0Citigroup Global Mkts 4.0 4.8 5.3 4.1Corficolombiana - - 7.2 9.7Corredores Asociados 4.5 - 9.0 -Credicorp Capital 4.5 4.3 9.2 8.7Credit Suisse 4.0 4.3 8.0 10.0Deutsche Bank 4.1 5.0 10.0 11.0EIU 5.0 5.2 8.0 9.5Fedesarrollo 4.1 4.4 5.2 7.8Goldman Sachs - - - -Helm Bank - - - -HSBC 4.1 4.5 8.3 8.0Itaú BBA - - - -JPMorgan - - - -Nomura 4.0 4.8 6.3 6.5Polinomics - - - -RBS 4.1 - 8.2 -Santander 4.8 4.5 7.5 9.5UBS - - - -Ultrabursátiles 4.2 4.5 6.0 9.3SummaryMinimum 3.4 3.9 5.2 4.1Maximum 5.0 5.2 10.0 11.8Median 4.1 4.5 7.5 8.7Consensus 4.1 4.5 7.3 8.4History30 days ago 4.3 4.6 7.7 8.860 days ago 4.2 4.5 7.6 9.090 days ago 4.3 4.4 7.8 9.5

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2017 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (DANE, Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadistica). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.6 Total consumption, annual variation in %. 7 Total consumption, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.9 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.




July 2013



Individual Forecasts 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014ANIF -0.9 2.9 10.1 9.8 -2.5 -2.5Banco Bradesco - - - - - -Banco CorpBanca - - - - - -Banco de Bogotá 1.4 - - - -0.5 -0.6Bancolombia - - 9.3 - -2.7 -Barclays Capital - - - - -1.0 -0.7BBVA Research 0.9 - 10.5 10.5 -2.5 -2.6BofA Merrill Lynch - - 9.5 8.6 -2.6 -1.9BTG Pactual - - 9.9 9.8 -1.2 -1.2Capital Economics 3.0 3.0 - - -0.8 -0.4Citigroup Global Mkts - - - - -2.5 -2.1Corficolombiana - - 10.2 - -0.8 -0.8Corredores Asociados - - - - 1.8 -Credicorp Capital 1.9 5.1 - - -0.7 -0.6Credit Suisse - - 10.0 10.0 -1.0 -1.0Deutsche Bank - - 9.9 9.5 -1.2 -1.1EIU 0.5 2.4 9.9 9.3 - -Fedesarrollo 2.3 3.2 10.2 10.1 -2.2 -2.1Goldman Sachs - - - - -2.4 -2.3Helm Bank - - - - - -HSBC - - - - -1.2 -1.2Itaú BBA - - 9.0 8.5 -2.2 -2.1JPMorgan - - 10.2 9.5 -1.0 -0.5Nomura - - - - -2.0 -2.3Polinomics - - - - - -RBS - - - - -1.2 -Santander 2.5 4.0 9.9 9.5 -2.2 -1.9UBS 2.2 3.2 10.2 9.8 -2.4 -2.1Ultrabursátiles 1.0 4.8 10.1 10.0 -2.4 -2.3SummaryMinimum -0.9 2.4 9.0 8.5 -2.7 -2.6Maximum 3.0 5.1 10.5 10.5 1.8 -0.4Median 1.7 3.2 10.0 9.8 -1.6 -1.9Consensus 1.5 3.6 9.9 9.6 -1.6 -1.5History30 days ago 2.1 3.7 10.0 9.7 -1.7 -1.560 days ago 2.5 3.8 10.1 9.8 -1.7 -1.590 days ago 2.7 3.8 10.1 9.8 -1.7 -1.6

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2017 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (DANE, Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadistica) and the Central Bank (BanRep, Banco de la Republica). See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.10 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: DANE.11 Industrial production, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.12 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: DANE.13 Central government balance as % of GDP. Source: BanRep.



-6

-4

-2

0

2000 2005 2010 2015

Colombia

Latin America


5

10

15

20

2000 2005 2010 2015



1

2

3

4

5

6


2013 2014


-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2000 2005 2010 2015

Colombia

Latin America



July 2013

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

< 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 > 3.2


14 | Inflation | 2000 - 2017 | in %


15 | Inflation | Q1 10-Q4 14 | in %


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2017 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (DANE, Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadistica). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.14 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop). 15 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop).16 Inflation, evolution of 2013 forecasts during the last 18 months.17 Inflation, evolution of 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.18 Inflation, panellist distribution of 2013 forecasts. Concentration of panellists in forecast


Individual Forecasts 2013 2014ANIF 2.6 3.0Banco Bradesco - -Banco CorpBanca 2.3 3.0Banco de Bogotá 2.7 2.9Bancolombia 2.6 3.9Barclays Capital - -BBVA Research 2.6 3.2BofA Merrill Lynch 2.9 3.5BTG Pactual 2.4 3.1Capital Economics 2.5 3.0Citigroup Global Mkts 2.5 3.0Corficolombiana 2.9 3.5Corredores Asociados 2.9 -Credicorp Capital 2.6 3.0Credit Suisse 2.8 3.2Deutsche Bank 2.8 3.2EIU 2.2 2.7Fedesarrollo 2.5 3.2Goldman Sachs 3.0 3.0Helm Bank 2.5 3.0HSBC 2.7 3.0Itaú BBA 2.8 3.0JPMorgan 2.2 2.9Nomura 2.5 2.8Polinomics 2.5 3.1RBS 2.6 -Santander 2.6 3.0UBS 2.8 3.1Ultrabursátiles 2.8 2.9SummaryMinimum 2.2 2.7Maximum 3.0 3.9Median 2.6 3.0Consensus 2.6 3.1History30 days ago 2.6 3.160 days ago 2.6 3.090 days ago 2.7 3.1Additional ForecastsIMF (Apr. 2013) 2.4 3.0Government (Feb. 2013) 3.0 -



1

2

3

4

5



0

4

8

12

2000 2005 2010 2015

Colombia

Latin America

2

3

4

5



0

2

4

6

8

Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14

Colombia

Latin America



July 2013

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

< 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.75 4.00 > 4.00


19 | Interest Rate | 2000 - 2017 | in %




Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2017 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the Central Bank (BanRep, Banco de la Republica). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.19 Interest rate, Central Bank policy rate in % (eop).20 Quarterly interest rate, Central Bank policy rate in % (eop).21 Interest rate, evolution of 2013 forecasts during the last 18 months.22 Interest rate, evolution of 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.23 Interest rate, panellist distribution of 2013 forecasts. Concentration of panellists in forecast


Individual Forecasts 2013 2014ANIF 3.00 4.25Banco Bradesco - -Banco CorpBanca 4.00 4.50Banco de Bogotá 3.25 4.50Bancolombia 3.25 4.00Barclays Capital 3.25 5.00BBVA Research 3.25 4.25BofA Merrill Lynch 3.25 4.25BTG Pactual 3.25 4.00Capital Economics 3.25 4.00Citigroup Global Mkts 3.25 4.50Corficolombiana 3.75 5.25Corredores Asociados 3.25 -Credicorp Capital 3.75 4.50Credit Suisse 3.25 4.50Deutsche Bank 3.25 -EIU - -Fedesarrollo 3.50 4.50Goldman Sachs 3.25 5.00Helm Bank 3.25 4.75HSBC 3.25 4.75Itaú BBA 3.25 4.00JPMorgan 3.25 -Nomura 3.00 4.00Polinomics - -RBS 3.25 -Santander 3.25 3.25UBS 3.25 4.50Ultrabursátiles 3.25 4.75SummaryMinimum 3.00 3.25Maximum 4.00 5.25Median 3.25 4.50Consensus 3.31 4.41History30 days ago 3.31 4.3960 days ago 3.31 4.4490 days ago 3.38 4.49



2

4

6

8



0

5

10

15

2000 2005 2010 2015

Colombia

Latin America

2

4

6

8



2

4

6

8

10

Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14

Colombia

Latin America



July 2013

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

< 1,700 1,750 1,800 1,850 1,900 1,950 2,000 2,050 > 2,050


24 | Exchange Rate | COP per USD

26 | COP per USD 2013 | evol. of fcst

25 | Exchange Rate | COP per USD

27 | COP per USD 2014 | evol. of fcst

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2017 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from Thomson Reuters. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.24 Exchange rate, COP per USD (eop).25 Quarterly exchange rate, COP per USD (eop).26 Exchange rate, evolution of 2013 forecast during the last 18 months.27 Exchange rate, evolution of 2014 forecast during the last 18 months.28 Exchange rate, panellist distribution of 2013 forecasts. Concentration of panellists in forecast


Individual Forecasts 2013 2014ANIF - -Banco Bradesco - -Banco CorpBanca 1,878 1,874Banco de Bogotá 1,880 1,874Bancolombia 1,897 1,814Barclays Capital 1,835 1,875BBVA Research 1,885 1,869BofA Merrill Lynch 1,925 1,950BTG Pactual 2,000 2,100Capital Economics - -Citigroup Global Mkts 1,840 1,800Corficolombiana 1,850 1,875Corredores Asociados 1,950 -Credicorp Capital 1,850 1,850Credit Suisse 1,870 1,890Deutsche Bank 1,910 1,950EIU 1,848 1,860Fedesarrollo 1,819 1,780Goldman Sachs 1,950 1,960Helm Bank 1,940 1,950HSBC 1,950 1,900Itaú BBA 1,900 1,850JPMorgan 1,775 1,825Nomura 1,950 2,000Polinomics - -RBS - -Santander 1,806 1,792UBS 1,825 1,796Ultrabursátiles 1,950 2,000SummaryMinimum 1,775 1,780Maximum 2,000 2,100Median 1,883 1,874Consensus 1,887 1,888History30 days ago 1,869 1,86360 days ago 1,822 1,81790 days ago 1,801 1,799

28 | COP per USD 2013 | Panellist Distribution

Exchange Rate | COP per USD

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100



1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2000 2005 2010 2015

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200



1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14



July 2013


1

2

3

4

5


2013 2014


-25

0

25

50

75

100

2000 2005 2010 2015



-4

-2

0

2

2000 2005 2010 2015



-3.5

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0


2013 2014


Current Account and Trade Balance Current Account Trade Balance

% of GDP USD bnIndividual Forecasts 2013 2014 2013 2014ANIF -3.5 -3.4 1.9 2.8Banco Bradesco - - - -Banco CorpBanca - - - -Banco de Bogotá -3.4 - 3.1 -Bancolombia -3.4 - 1.5 -Barclays Capital -3.4 -3.3 4.4 3.7BBVA Research -2.9 -3.0 3.7 3.8BofA Merrill Lynch -2.6 -2.5 9.1 12.9BTG Pactual -3.2 -3.3 4.4 4.6Capital Economics -2.6 -2.2 - -Citigroup Global Mkts -3.8 -3.0 2.9 5.1Corficolombiana -2.9 -2.5 - -Corredores Asociados - - - -Credicorp Capital -3.4 -3.0 4.2 3.1Credit Suisse -3.3 -3.4 - -Deutsche Bank -3.2 -3.3 0.0 -1.0EIU -3.2 -3.3 0.9 0.7Fedesarrollo -3.2 -3.3 -0.6 -0.6Goldman Sachs -3.7 -3.8 -1.0 -2.7Helm Bank - - - -HSBC -4.2 -4.1 2.0 1.6Itaú BBA -3.5 -3.4 - -JPMorgan -3.5 -3.2 1.5 4.7Nomura -3.3 -3.3 - -Polinomics - - - -RBS - - -3.2 -Santander -4.4 -3.3 -1.0 2.2UBS -3.4 -3.1 1.8 2.9Ultrabursátiles -3.3 -3.3 2.6 2.8SummaryMinimum -4.4 -4.1 -3.2 -2.7Maximum -2.6 -2.2 9.1 12.9Median -3.4 -3.3 1.9 2.9Consensus -3.4 -3.2 2.0 2.9History30 days ago -3.2 -3.1 2.6 3.460 days ago -3.2 -3.1 2.7 3.590 days ago -3.4 -3.0 2.3 3.4

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2017 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BanRep, Banco de la Republica). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.29 Current account balance, as % of GDP. 30 Current account balance, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.31 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD. 32 Trade balance, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.



July 2013



Individual Forecasts 2013 2014 2013 2014ANIF 59.3 64.9 57.4 62.1Banco Bradesco - - - -Banco CorpBanca - - - -Banco de Bogotá 63.9 - 60.8 -Bancolombia 61.2 - 59.7 -Barclays Capital 64.4 71.0 60.0 67.3BBVA Research 58.1 65.6 57.8 63.7BofA Merrill Lynch 68.9 82.9 59.8 70.0BTG Pactual 62.1 65.4 57.7 60.8Capital Economics - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts 66.2 73.5 63.3 68.4Corficolombiana - - - -Corredores Asociados - - - -Credicorp Capital 65.5 70.4 61.3 67.2Credit Suisse - - - -Deutsche Bank 69.0 75.0 69.0 76.0EIU 63.8 70.0 62.9 69.2Fedesarrollo 68.3 70.3 68.9 70.9Goldman Sachs 61.9 65.6 62.9 68.3Helm Bank - - - -HSBC 62.3 68.5 60.3 66.9Itaú BBA - - - -JPMorgan 64.0 83.1 62.5 78.4Nomura - - - -Polinomics - - - -RBS 61.8 - 65.0 -Santander 64.2 73.9 65.2 71.7UBS 64.9 72.7 63.1 69.8Ultrabursátiles 64.0 69.4 61.4 66.6SummaryMinimum 58.1 64.9 57.4 60.8Maximum 69.0 83.1 69.0 78.4Median 64.0 70.3 61.4 68.4Consensus 63.9 71.4 62.1 68.6History30 days ago 65.2 73.0 62.6 69.660 days ago 65.3 73.0 62.6 69.590 days ago 65.4 72.9 63.2 69.5

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2017 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BanRep, Banco de la Republica). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.33 Exports, annual variation in %. 34 Exports, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.35 Imports, annual variation in %. 36 Imports, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.

60

65

70

75


2013 2014


-40

-20

0

20

40

2000 2005 2010 2015



-40

-20

0

20

40

60

2000 2005 2010 2015



60

65

70

75

80


2013 2014




July 2013


70

75

80

85

90

95


2013 2014


10

20

30

40

50

2000 2005 2010 2015

Colombia

Latin America


4

6

8

10

12

2000 2005 2010 2015



38

40

42

44

46

48


2013 2014



USD bn USD bnIndividual Forecasts 2013 2014 2013 2014ANIF 40.5 43.8 - -Banco Bradesco - - - -Banco CorpBanca - - - -Banco de Bogotá 42.4 - - -Bancolombia - - - -Barclays Capital 44.5 49.5 86.5 95.2BBVA Research 44.2 49.8 81.6 88.5BofA Merrill Lynch 43.5 47.9 - -BTG Pactual - - - -Capital Economics - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts 42.3 47.1 84.8 86.4Corficolombiana - - - -Corredores Asociados - - - -Credicorp Capital 43.2 45.0 - -Credit Suisse 41.1 43.2 82.2 85.8Deutsche Bank 49.0 55.0 - -EIU 42.1 42.8 87.0 89.4Fedesarrollo 47.3 52.5 85.1 92.4Goldman Sachs 41.5 43.0 84.6 91.7Helm Bank - - - -HSBC 40.0 40.5 - -Itaú BBA 42.3 47.8 - -JPMorgan 41.1 46.1 - -Nomura - - - -Polinomics - - - -RBS 40.9 - 82.0 -Santander 41.5 45.3 85.1 90.2UBS - - - -Ultrabursátiles 45.0 - 86.6 92.6SummaryMinimum 40.0 40.5 81.6 85.8Maximum 49.0 55.0 87.0 95.2Median 42.3 46.1 84.9 90.2Consensus 42.9 46.6 84.5 90.2History30 days ago 42.7 46.2 84.6 90.260 days ago 42.6 46.2 84.6 90.290 days ago 42.4 46.1 85.1 91.0

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2017 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BanRep, Banco de la Republica). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.38 International reserves, months of imports. 39 International reserves, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.40 External debt as % of GDP. 41 External debt, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.



July 2013

Colombia in the Region


Fact Sheet

Colombia6.6%

Brazil40.6%

Mexico21.2%

Argentina8.6%

Venezuela6.9%

Other16.1%

Colombia8.2%

Brazil34.6%

Mexico20.2%

Argentina7.2%

Peru5.4%

Other24.3%

U.S.A.30.2%

EU-2712.1%

Other Asia ex-Japan

6.8%China11.5%

Other LatAm11.4%

Mexico10.3%

Brazil5.2%

Other12.5%

U.S.A.39.4%

Other EU-27

12.1%Spain5.1%

Asia ex-Japan10.3%

LatAm23.2%

Other9.9%

Other4.4%


Mineral Fuels5.4%

Food9.8%

Other4.8%


Mineral Fuels59.8%

Food12.7%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

-20

0

20

40

60

80

1002003-05 2006-08 2009-11

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002003-05 2006-08 2009-11

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• Ongoing armed domestic conflict

• Political consensus on economic policy• Inflation control focused monetary policy constitutionally required

• Vulnerability to downward shifts in international commodity prices

• Consolidated financial system • Large shadow economy and capital fligh

Energy (2010)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 4,506Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 1,367Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 55.3Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 45.4Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 807Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 268CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 72.3

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: Baa3 StableS&P: BBB StableFitch Ratings: BBB- Positive

Telecommunication (2012) Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 13.2Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 103.2Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 49.0Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 8.4

Transportation (2012) Airports: 862Railways (km): 874Roadways (km): 141,374Waterways (km): 24,725Chief Ports: Barranquilla, Buenaventura

Official name: Republic of ColombiaCapital: Bogota (6.3m)Other cities: Medellin (3.3m)

Cali (3.1m)Area (km2): 1,138,910Population (million, 2012 est.): 46.6Population density (per km2, 2012 est.): 40.9Population growth rate (%, 2012 est.): 1.1Life expectancy (years, 2012 est.): 74.8Illiteracy rate (%, 2005): 9.6Language: Spanish & IndigenousMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT-5

President: Juan Manuel SantosLast elections: 20 June 2010Next elections: May 2014Central Bank President: Jose Dario Uribe Escobar

FOCUSECONOMICS Mexico


July 2013

REAL SECTOR | Economic growth slows down markedly in first quarterIn the first quarter, GDP increased 0.8% over the same quarter last year, which represents a notable deceleration compared to the 3.2% expansion observed in the final quarter of 2012. The reading marks, in fact, the slowest pace observed since the last quarter of 2009. The reading was the result of a deterioration in both domestic demand and the external sector.

On the domestic front, total consumption decelerated from a 3.1% increase in Q4 to a 2.1% expansion in Q1, reflecting a slowdown in private consumption (Q4 2012: +3.6% year-on-year; Q1 2013: +2.6% yoy) and a deterioration in government spending (Q4: +0.2% yoy; Q1: -0.7% yoy). In addition, gross fixed investment swung form a 4.1% expansion in the fourth quarter to a 0.1% contraction in the first.

Exports of goods and services contracted 0.3% in Q1, which contrasts the 4.7% expansion tallied in the fourth quarter, while imports grew 1.3% in Q1, slower than the 5.0% increase registered in Q4. As a result, the net contribution from the external sector to overall economic growth deteriorated from minus 0.2 percentage points in the fourth quarter to minus 0.5 percentage points in the first.

On a sequential basis, GDP increased a seasonally adjusted 0.5% in the first quarter, which came in below the 0.7% expansion registered in the final quarter of 2012.

Economic activity picked up more than expected in April. However, the April reading was partly inflated by calendar effects. Both the external and the domestic sector are currently showing signs of fatigue, as a decline in exports in May points to a soft start to the second quarter, while manufacturing confidence fell to the lowest level in four years in June. In addition, consumer sentiment fell short of expectations in June and fell to its lowest level in 18 months.

LatinFocus panellists lowered their growth forecasts for the third consecutive month and now expect the economy to grow 2.9% this year, which is down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month’s projection. For 2014, the panel sees growth accelerating to 3.9%.

Inflation fell from 4.6% in May to 4.1% in June. Meanwhile, at its 12 July meeting, Banxico left interest rates unchanged at 4.00%. Panellists expect inflation to end both this year and next at 3.7%.



2009-11 2012-14 2015-17Population (million): 112 116 120GDP (USD bn): 1,025 1,322 1,669GDP per capita (USD): 9,125 11,391 13,959GDP growth (%): 0.9 3.6 3.9Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -2.5 -2.2 -1.7Public Debt (% of GDP): 34.7 35.0 34.1Inflation (%): 4.3 3.9 3.5Current Account (% of GDP): -0.7 -1.2 -1.4External Debt (% of GDP): 18.7 18.1 18.4

MexicoMexico


Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.Source: Mexico National Statistical Institute (INEGI) and LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

Q2 2009 Q2 2010 Q2 2011 Q2 2012 Q2 2013

%

Ricardo AcevesSenior Economist



July 2013

In its latest inflation report from May, the Central Bank maintained its forecasts of the economy growing between 3.0% and 4.0% this year and between 3.2% and 4.2% in 2014. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast revised down their growth projections for Mexico for a third consecutive month and now see the economy increasing 2.9% this year, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For next year, the panel expects growth to pick up to 3.9%.

REAL SECTOR | Economic activity expands at fastest pace in nine monthsIn April, economic activity shot up 4.6% over the same month last year, according to the IGAE (Indicador Global de la Actividad Economica). The monthly expansion represents the fastest pace since July 2012 and contrasts the 1.7% decline observed in March. Moreover, the print overshot market expectations that had economic activity rising 3.6%.

According to the national statics office, the strong improvement observed in April was partly influenced by calendar effects, as the Easter holiday this year was celebrated in March while it was celebrated in April in 2012, thus leading to more working days. That said, the acceleration was broad-based, as all three major sub-categories that compose the index – agriculture, industry and services – improved markedly over the previous month.

On a sequential basis, however, economic activity plunged a seasonally adjusted 0.77% in April. The print contrasted the 0.16% increase recorded in March and marks the sharpest decline since December 2012.

Despite the strong annual reading, the trend continues to point downwards, with annual average growth in economic activity edging down from 3.0% in March to 2.9% in April.

OUTLOOK | Confidence in the manufacturing sector plunges to lowest level in four yearsIn June, the seasonally-adjusted IMEF manufacturing index dropped to 47.3 points from a revised 48.1 points in May (previously reported: 48.3 points). The reading undershot market expectations and represents the lowest level observed since June 2009. As a result of the monthly drop, the index remains below the 50-point threshold, which indicates a contraction of the manufacturing sector. According to the IMEF, the general economic trend suggests that the moderation in the pace of growth will remain in the second quarter.

Four out of the five sub-categories that compose the index dropped over the previous month and all five sub-indicators recorded values below 50 points. In particular, the sub-indexes that refer to new orders and production level plunged to their lowest level in four years. Only the sub-index related to supplied deliveries improved over May.

On the other hand, the ISM manufacturing index in the United States returned to expansion territory - above the 50 percentage-point threshold - in June, rising to 50.9 points. The monthly improvement suggests that growth in the manufacturing sector is gaining some momentum, which bodes well for its Mexican counterpart in the months ahead.

Manufacturing Index

Note: Composite index in the manufacturing report on business (PMI) for the U.S. and seasonally-adjusted manufacturing index for Mexico. Readings above 50 points indicate an expansion in the manufacturing sector while readings below 50 points indicate to a contraction.Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and Mexican Institute of Financial Executives (IMEF, Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas).

45

50

55

60


Mexico Manufacturing Index

U.S. Manufacturing Index


Note: Year-on-year and annual average growth rate of monthly economic activity in %.Source: Mexico National Statistical Institute (INEGI) and FocusEconomics calculations.

-2.0

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Year-on-year (left scale)


%



July 2013

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panellists anticipate Mexican industrial production to increase 2.5% this year, which is unchanged over the previous month’s projection. For next year, panellists see industrial production expanding 4.0%.

OUTLOOK | Consumer confidence falls to 18-month lowIn June, the unadjusted index of consumer confidence published by the statistical institute (INEGI) fell to 93.3 points from 95.2 points in May. The reading contrasted market expectations, which had the index improving to 95.4 points and marks the weakest level seen since December 2011. Compared to the same month last year, the index dropped 2.4%, which is double the 1.2% drop observed in May.

The deterioration was broad-based, with all sub-components registering lower levels compared to the previous month, in particular consumers’ assessment about their current household situation as well as of their future household prospects, which recorded lows not seen since December 2011.

Compared to the previous month, consumer sentiment dropped 1.9% in seasonally adjusted terms, which contrasts the revised 0.7% drop recorded in the previous month (previously reported: -0.5% month-on-month).

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panellists expect private consumption to grow 3.3% this year, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projections. For next year, the panel sees private consumption expanding 4.0%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation falls to four-month low in JuneIn June, consumer prices dropped 0.06% over the previous month. The print was above the 0.33% drop observed in May and broadly in line with market expectations. The subdued reading mainly reflects how lower non-core prices, particularly for agricultural products, offset higher core prices.

Owing to the subdued monthly reading, annual headline inflation fell to 4.1% in June from 4.6% in May. The reading represents the lowest level in four months. Meanwhile, annual average inflation remained stable at May’s 4.2%. Annual core inflation inched down from 2.9% in May to 2.8% in June.

In its latest inflation report from May, the Central Bank expects inflation to end this year at between 3.0% and 4.0%, before moderating to levels close to its long-term inflation target of 3.0% in 2014. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panellists expect inflation to end this year at 3.7%, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For next year, the panel sees year-end inflation also at 3.7%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Banxico holds rates amid subdued global growth and weak economic activity At its 12 July monetary policy meeting, the Central Bank (Banxico) left the overnight target interest rate unchanged at 4.00%, a decision in line with market expectations. The Bank last adjusted interest rates at its 8 March meeting, when monetary authorities decided to cut the main monetary policy rate by 50 basis points.

In the accompanying statement, Banxico stressed that downside risks to global economic growth persist. In addition, more recent data confirm that the

Consumer Confidence

Note: Seasonally adjusted consumer confidence index (ICC, Indicador de Confianza del Consumidor). January 2003=100.Source: Mexico National Statistical Institute (INEGI).

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85

90

95

100

105



Note: Year-on-year and monthly variation of consumer price index in %.Source: Mexico National Statistical Institute (INEGI).

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July 2013

weakness in Mexican economic activity accentuated in the second quarter of this year. Regarding price developments, the Central Bank argued that inflation is easing and acknowledged that inflationary pressures will fade in the coming months.

Moreover, monetary officials noted that, given expectations of a significant change in U.S. monetary policy, the national currency weakened notably in recent weeks and long-term interest rates rose significantly. However, the Bank stated that the depreciation of the peso will not spur any inflationary pressures going forward. In fact, Banxico projects annual consumer prices to fall to between 3% and 4% in both the third and final quarter of the year.

Finally, the Bank highlighted that its current monetary policy stance is consistent with a scenario of low inflationary pressures and subdued economic growth. That said, monetary authorities will remain vigilant on the evolution of the monetary policy stance relative to that of other economies, particularly the United States. The next monetary policy is scheduled for 6 September.

A majority of LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panellists expect Banxico to stay put, resulting in a 3.95% projection. For next year, the panel sees interest rates rising to 4.09%.

EXTERNAL SECTOR | Remittances contract for 11 straight monthsIn May, remittances from Mexican workers abroad totalled USD 2.0 billion, which was below the USD 2.3 billion witnessed in the same month last year. The print, which undershot market expectations, represents a 13.2% contraction in annual terms, which is a deterioration over the 6.4% drop observed in April. Moreover, the reading marks the 11th consecutive month of negative annual growth in remittances.

In the 12 months up to May, remittances recorded USD 21.4 billion, which constitutes an 8.4% decline over the same period the previous year (April: -6.4% year-on-year). At their current level, remittances are well below the peak of USD 26.0 billion reached in the full year 2007.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panellist see remittances picking up somewhat throughout the rest of this year and reach USD 21.7 billion in 2013. For next year, the panel sees remittances rising to USD 23.1 billion.

EXTERNAL SECTOR | Trade deficit widens as exports decline in MayIn May, the trade balance recorded a deficit of USD 470 million. The reading contrasts the USD 334 million surplus registered in the same month last year and exceeded market expectations that saw a trade shortfall of USD 309 million. Building on the monthly reading, the moving 12-month sum of the trade balance dropped from a USD 4.4 billion deficit in April to a USD 5.2 billion shortfall in May, which represents the largest deficit since November 2009.

The May deficit reflects a 1.5% expansion in imports, which, nevertheless, was slower than the whopping 11.8% increase observed in April. The monthly rise was the result of an increase in imports of intermediate goods, whereas imports of consumer and capital goods deteriorated. As a result, the moving 12-month sum of imports fell from a 3.8% increase in April to a 3.3% rise in May.

Merchandise Trade

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the12-month sum of exports and imports in %.Source: Mexico National Statistical Institute (INEGI).

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Trade Balance (USD bn, left scale)Exports (yoy, right scale)Imports (yoy, right scale)

%


Note: Banxico target rate (Tasa objetivo de fondeo bancario) in %.Source: Mexico Central Bank (Banxico).

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%

Remittances - U.S. Payrolls | variation in %

Note: Year-on-year variation of remittances from Mexican workers abroad and U.S. non-farm payrolls.Source: Mexico Central Bank (Banxico) and U.S. Bureau of Labor.

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30

May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13

Remittances (yoy, left scale)

U.S. nonfarm payrolls (yoy, right scale)

%%



July 2013

Meanwhile, exports declined 0.9% annually in May, which contrasts the 6.3% expansion registered in April. The monthly deterioration showed how a sharp drop in oil exports more than offset an increase in non-oil shipments. As a result of the monthly deterioration, in the 12 months up to May export growth slowed to a 2.4% expansion from a 3.1% increase in the 12 months up to April.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panellists expect export growth to accelerate in the coming months and reach a 5.6% expansion and imports rising a stronger 7.0%. For next year, the panel expects both exports and imports to accelerate, growing 8.1% and 8.6% respectively.



July 2013


Annual Data 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Real Sector Population (million) 109 111 112 114 115 116 117 118 120 121GDP per capita (USD) 10,026 7,991 9,214 10,171 10,258 11,463 12,452 13,263 13,936 14,677GDP (USD bn) 1,091 884 1,035 1,157 1,178 1,330 1,459 1,570 1,666 1,772Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 1.2 -6.0 5.3 3.9 3.9 2.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9Domestic Demand (annual var. in %) 1.9 -7.8 4.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 4.2 4.5 4.7 4.8Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 1.7 -7.2 4.9 4.4 3.3 3.3 4.0 4.6 4.2 4.4Government Consumption (ann. var. in %) 1.1 3.2 2.3 2.1 1.5 - - - - -Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) 5.5 -11.8 0.3 8.1 5.9 4.4 6.4 6.8 6.5 6.7Industrial Production (annual var. in %) -0.1 -7.7 6.1 4.0 3.6 2.5 4.0 4.1 3.8 3.9Retail Sales (annual var. in %) 1.2 -4.3 2.4 3.5 3.7 2.9 3.7 3.6 3.8 3.9Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 4.0 5.5 5.4 5.2 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.2Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -0.1 -2.3 -2.8 -2.5 -2.6 -2.1 -2.0 -1.9 -1.7 -1.6Public Debt (% of GDP) 26.8 34.7 34.0 35.3 35.5 35.0 34.6 34.8 34.1 33.5Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M2 in %) 16.4 6.4 8.0 11.9 8.3 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual var. in %, eop) 6.5 3.6 4.4 3.8 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.5Inflation (CPI, annual var. in %, aop) 5.1 5.3 4.2 3.4 4.1 4.0 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.4Inflation (Core, annual var. in %, eop) 5.5 4.2 3.6 3.4 2.9 - - - - -Inflation (PPI, annual var. in %, eop) 7.2 4.1 4.4 7.8 1.2 - - - - -Banxico Target Rate (%, eop) 8.25 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 3.95 4.09 4.54 5.19 5.71TIIE 28 Days Rate (%, eop) 8.74 4.93 4.89 4.80 4.84 4.49 4.39 4.88 5.36 5.77Stock Market (variation of IPC in %) -24.2 43.5 20.0 -3.8 17.9 - - - - -Exchange Rate (MXN per USD, eop) 13.67 13.06 12.36 13.95 12.87 12.30 12.19 12.30 12.47 12.54Exchange Rate (MXN per USD, aop) 11.16 13.50 12.63 12.44 13.16 12.50 12.26 12.24 12.39 12.51External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -1.8 -0.8 -0.2 -0.9 -1.0 -1.2 -1.3 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4Current Account Balance (USD bn) -19.6 -7.5 -2.5 -10.3 -11.4 -15.5 -19.4 -22.5 -23.8 -24.7Trade Balance (USD bn) -17.3 -4.7 -3.0 -1.5 0.0 -5.5 -7.9 -9.4 -11.4 -14.2Exports (USD bn) 291 230 298 349 371 392 423 468 514 563Imports (USD bn) 309 234 301 351 371 397 431 477 525 577Exports (annual var. in %) 7.2 -21.2 29.9 17.1 6.1 5.6 8.1 10.5 9.9 9.5Imports (annual var. in %) 9.5 -24.0 28.6 16.4 5.7 7.0 8.6 10.8 10.1 9.8Remittances (USD bn) 25.1 21.3 21.3 22.8 22.4 21.7 23.1 25.6 27.8 30.6International Reserves (USD bn) 85 91 114 143 164 179 193 209 225 241International Reserves (months of imports) 3.3 4.6 4.5 4.9 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.1 5.0External Debt (USD bn) 129 166 198 211 229 237 248 293 307 322External Debt (% of GDP) 11.9 18.8 19.1 18.2 19.4 17.8 17.0 18.7 18.4 18.2 Quarterly Data Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 3.2 3.2 0.8 2.9 3.5 3.8 4.2 3.7 3.8 3.7Economic Growth (GDP, qoq s.a. var. in %) 0.3 0.7 0.5 - - - - - - -Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 2.2 3.6 2.6 3.5 3.2 3.6 4.3 4.0 3.7 3.9Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) 4.7 4.1 -0.1 4.8 5.4 6.4 7.1 6.4 5.9 5.8Industrial Production (annual var. in %) 3.6 1.8 -1.4 2.8 3.7 3.8 4.2 3.6 3.9 3.7Retail Sales (annual var. in %) 3.8 1.5 -1.0 3.0 3.6 4.6 4.2 3.5 3.3 3.2Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 5.1 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.0 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.5Inflation (CPI, annual var. in %, eop) 4.8 3.6 4.3 4.1 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7Banxico Target Rate (%, eop) 4.50 4.50 4.00 4.00 3.93 3.95 4.06 4.10 4.12 4.09TIIE 28 Days Rate (%, eop) 4.80 4.84 4.48 4.30 4.45 4.49 4.65 4.68 4.68 4.39Exchange Rate (MXN per USD, eop) 12.86 12.87 12.32 12.95 12.47 12.30 12.29 12.26 12.24 12.19Exchange Rate (MXN per USD, aop) 13.16 12.95 12.64 12.48 12.52 12.38 12.29 12.28 12.25 12.21Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -0.4 -2.3 -1.8 -1.0 -0.9 -1.2 -1.1 -1.2 -1.0 -1.2Current Account Balance (USD bn) -1.2 -7.0 -5.5 -3.2 -3.0 -4.4 -4.0 -4.1 -3.8 -4.7Trade Balance (USD bn) -1.2 -1.9 -1.0 -0.4 -1.5 -2.4 -1.4 -1.3 -2.8 -2.6Exports (USD bn) 91.2 95.6 88.3 98.5 98.2 101.3 98.5 106.1 104.6 109.1Imports (USD bn) 92.4 97.5 89.3 98.8 99.6 103.5 99.9 107.4 107.4 111.6 Monthly Data Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13Economic Activity (IGAE, annual var. in %) 1.1 4.3 3.9 1.4 3.5 0.5 -1.7 4.6 - -Industrial Production (annual var. in %) 2.2 3.4 2.9 -1.1 1.8 -1.0 -4.8 3.3 0.5 -Retail Sales (annual var. in %) 3.8 3.5 3.5 -1.8 1.8 -2.6 -2.4 2.6 - -Unemployment (% of active population) 5.0 5.0 5.1 4.5 5.4 4.9 4.5 5.0 4.9 -Consumer Conf. Index (100-point threshold) 94.0 94.9 94.2 99.0 100.0 95.5 95.4 95.7 95.2 93.3IMEF Manufacturing Index (50-pt threshold) 50.6 52.0 52.0 52.3 53.0 52.4 51.3 50.5 48.1 47.3Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.44 0.51 0.68 0.23 0.40 0.49 0.73 0.07 -0.33 -0.06Inflation (CPI, annual var. in %) 4.8 4.6 4.2 3.6 3.3 3.6 4.3 4.6 4.6 4.1Exchange Rate (MXN per USD, eop) 12.86 13.10 12.95 12.87 12.71 12.78 12.32 12.13 12.81 12.95Exports (annual var. in %) 1.8 13.0 1.3 3.6 0.1 -2.9 -1.3 6.3 -0.9 -Remittances (annual var. in %) -20.3 -7.4 -5.2 -4.6 -2.9 -11.2 -15.2 -6.4 -13.2 -



July 2013

0%

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< 2.1 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.6 3.9 4.2 > 4.2


1 | Real GDP | 2000-2017 | var. in %




Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2017 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI, Instituto Nacional de Estadistica y Geografia). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.1 GDP, real annual variation in %. 2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.3 GDP, evolution of 2013 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 GDP, panellist distribution of 2013 forecasts. Concentration of panellists in forecast interval in


Individual Forecasts 2013 2014Banamex-Citigroup 2.7 4.2Banco Bradesco 3.5 3.7Barclays 3.5 4.0BBVA Bancomer 3.1 3.1BofA Merrill Lynch 2.5 4.0Capital Economics 3.0 4.0CEESP 3.3 4.0CIDE 2.5 3.8Credit Suisse 2.8 4.2Deutsche Bank 2.9 4.1EIU 3.2 4.0GBM Securities 3.7 3.4Goldman Sachs 2.8 3.6HSBC 2.9 3.9IMEF 2.7 3.8ING 2.8 4.3INVEX 2.9 3.6Itaú BBA 2.5 3.6Jonathan Heath & Asso. 2.7 4.2JPMorgan 2.8 4.0Monex 2.1 4.2Nomura 3.0 4.7Oxford Economics 2.7 4.0Prognosis 2.6 3.9RBC Capital Markets 3.5 -Santander 3.0 3.8Scotiabank 3.0 4.2UBS 3.2 4.0Vector Casa de Bolsa 3.5 3.3Ve Por Más 3.0 4.3SummaryMinimum 2.1 3.1Maximum 3.7 4.7Median 2.9 4.0Consensus 2.9 3.9History30 days ago 3.1 3.960 days ago 3.3 3.990 days ago 3.5 3.9Additional ForecastsCentral Bank (May 2013) 3.0 - 4.0 3.2 - 4.2IMF (July 2013) 2.9 3.2OECD (May 2013) 3.4 3.7

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MexicoLatin AmericaWorld

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MexicoLatin America


3.3

3.6

3.9

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4.5


2013 2014


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10

2000 2005 2010 2015

MexicoLatin America


Individual Forecasts 2013 2014 2013 2014Banamex-Citigroup 3.0 3.6 4.6 5.9Banco Bradesco - - - -Barclays 3.2 3.6 3.6 4.5BBVA Bancomer 3.3 2.5 2.7 5.9BofA Merrill Lynch 3.1 3.9 2.3 5.7Capital Economics 4.0 4.0 7.5 10.0CEESP 3.2 4.4 3.9 5.8CIDE 2.9 4.3 2.9 5.8Credit Suisse 3.2 4.2 4.3 6.2Deutsche Bank 3.4 3.9 - -EIU 3.1 3.9 6.4 7.7GBM Securities 4.5 4.0 7.5 7.7Goldman Sachs - - - -HSBC 3.5 5.4 6.0 8.7IMEF - - - -ING - - - -INVEX 4.1 4.3 4.0 6.0Itaú BBA - - - -Jonathan Heath & Asso. 2.6 4.0 6.1 8.3JPMorgan 3.4 - 5.5 -Monex - - - -Nomura 2.6 4.5 2.0 4.0Oxford Economics 2.9 3.9 3.2 5.3Prognosis - - - -RBC Capital Markets - - - -Santander 3.7 4.0 4.0 5.8Scotiabank 3.3 4.2 3.0 6.4UBS - - - -Vector Casa de Bolsa 3.7 3.6 4.0 4.9Ve Por Más - - - -SummaryMinimum 2.6 2.5 2.0 4.0Maximum 4.5 5.4 7.5 10.0Median 3.2 4.0 4.0 5.9Consensus 3.3 4.0 4.4 6.4History30 days ago 3.4 4.0 4.7 6.560 days ago 3.5 3.9 4.9 6.790 days ago 3.6 4.0 5.4 6.8

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2017 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI, Instituto Nacional de Estadistica y Geografia). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.6 Private consumption, annual variation in %. 7 Private consumption, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.9 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.




July 2013



Individual Forecasts 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014Banamex-Citigroup 2.0 4.0 4.6 4.6 -2.1 -2.0Banco Bradesco - - - - - -Barclays 3.0 4.5 4.7 4.4 -2.0 -1.9BBVA Bancomer - - 4.8 4.4 -2.0 -2.0BofA Merrill Lynch - - 4.8 4.7 -2.0 -2.1Capital Economics 4.0 5.0 5.0 4.5 -2.8 -2.4CEESP 2.6 4.1 4.7 4.6 - -CIDE 1.2 3.6 5.0 4.8 -1.9 -1.8Credit Suisse - - 4.6 4.2 -2.1 -2.1Deutsche Bank 3.4 6.1 5.0 4.9 -1.8 -1.5EIU 3.5 3.8 4.6 4.3 -1.7 -1.2GBM Securities 3.4 3.3 4.8 4.5 -2.1 -1.8Goldman Sachs - - - - -2.1 -2.0HSBC 2.6 3.3 4.9 4.8 -2.0 -2.0IMEF - - - - -2.0 -2.0ING - - - - - -INVEX 1.6 3.2 4.7 4.6 -2.5 -2.5Itaú BBA - - 5.0 4.8 -2.0 -2.0Jonathan Heath & Asso. 2.1 3.8 4.7 4.5 -2.0 -2.0JPMorgan 2.3 - - - - -Monex 0.8 4.4 - - -1.0 -Nomura - - - - -2.2 -2.2Oxford Economics 1.2 5.3 4.9 4.6 -2.2 -2.4Prognosis - - - - -1.8 -1.5RBC Capital Markets - - - - - -Santander 2.7 3.7 - - -2.0 -1.8Scotiabank 2.5 4.3 5.0 4.6 -2.0 -1.9UBS 2.1 3.2 4.8 4.6 -2.6 -2.6Vector Casa de Bolsa 3.5 3.0 4.5 4.3 -3.0 -2.8Ve Por Más - - 5.0 4.9 -2.0 -SummaryMinimum 0.8 3.0 4.5 4.2 -3.0 -2.8Maximum 4.0 6.1 5.0 4.9 -1.0 -1.2Median 2.5 3.8 4.8 4.6 -2.0 -2.0Consensus 2.5 4.0 4.8 4.6 -2.1 -2.0History30 days ago 2.5 3.9 4.8 4.6 -2.1 -2.060 days ago 2.7 3.9 4.8 4.5 -2.0 -2.090 days ago 3.3 4.0 4.8 4.5 -2.0 -2.0

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2017 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI, Instituto Nacional de Estadistica y Geografia) and the Central Bank (Banxico, Banco de Mexico). See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.10 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: INEGI.11 Industrial production, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.12 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: INEGI.13 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: Banxico.



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14 | Inflation | 2000 - 2017 | in %


15 | Inflation | Q1 10-Q4 14 | in %


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2017 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI, Instituto Nacional de Estadistica y Geografia). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.14 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop). 15 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop).16 Inflation, evolution of 2013 forecasts during the last 18 months.17 Inflation, evolution of 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.18 Inflation, panellist distribution of 2013 forecasts. Concentration of panellists in forecast


Individual Forecasts 2013 2014Banamex-Citigroup 3.6 3.7Banco Bradesco - -Barclays 3.8 3.7BBVA Bancomer 3.6 3.5BofA Merrill Lynch 3.9 4.9Capital Economics 3.8 3.0CEESP 3.5 3.3CIDE 3.7 3.7Credit Suisse 3.6 3.6Deutsche Bank 3.8 3.6EIU 3.8 3.8GBM Securities 3.7 3.5Goldman Sachs 3.4 3.2HSBC 3.4 3.4IMEF 3.8 3.6ING 4.0 3.7INVEX 3.4 3.7Itaú BBA 3.6 3.5Jonathan Heath & Asso. 3.6 3.7JPMorgan 3.2 -Monex 3.9 -Nomura 3.6 3.8Oxford Economics - -Prognosis 3.7 4.5RBC Capital Markets 3.5 -Santander 3.7 3.7Scotiabank 4.1 4.0UBS 3.9 3.5Vector Casa de Bolsa 3.7 4.7Ve Por Más 4.0 3.6SummaryMinimum 3.2 3.0Maximum 4.1 4.9Median 3.7 3.7Consensus 3.7 3.7History30 days ago 3.7 3.760 days ago 3.7 3.690 days ago 3.7 3.7Additional ForecastsCentral Bank (May 2013) 3.0 - 4.0 ~ 3.0IMF (Apr. 2013) 3.6 3.3OECD (May 2013) 3.4 3.2



2

3

4

5



2

4

6

8

10

12

2000 2005 2010 2015

MexicoLatin America

2

3

4

5

6



2

4

6

8

Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14

MexicoLatin America



July 2013

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

< 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.75 4.00 4.25 4.50 4.75 > 4.75


19 | Interest Rate | 2000 - 2017 | in %




Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2017 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the Central Bank (Banxico, Banco de Mexico). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.19 Interest rate, Central Bank policy rate in % (eop).20 Quarterly interest rate, Central Bank policy rate in % (eop).21 Interest rate, evolution of 2013 forecasts during the last 18 months.22 Interest rate, evolution of 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.23 Interest rate, panellist distribution of 2013 forecasts. Concentration of panellists in forecast


Individual Forecasts 2013 2014Banamex-Citigroup 4.00 4.00Banco Bradesco - -Barclays 4.00 4.00BBVA Bancomer 3.50 3.50BofA Merrill Lynch 4.00 4.00Capital Economics 4.00 4.50CEESP - -CIDE 4.00 4.00Credit Suisse 3.75 3.75Deutsche Bank 4.00 -EIU - -GBM Securities 4.00 4.00Goldman Sachs 3.50 4.75HSBC 4.00 4.00IMEF 4.00 4.00ING 4.00 4.00INVEX 4.00 4.00Itaú BBA 4.00 4.00Jonathan Heath & Asso. 4.00 4.25JPMorgan 4.00 -Monex 4.00 4.00Nomura 4.00 4.50Oxford Economics - -Prognosis 4.00 4.00RBC Capital Markets - -Santander 4.00 -Scotiabank 4.00 4.50UBS - -Vector Casa de Bolsa - -Ve Por Más 4.00 4.00SummaryMinimum 3.50 3.50Maximum 4.00 4.75Median 4.00 4.00Consensus 3.95 4.09History30 days ago 3.82 4.0060 days ago 3.88 4.0490 days ago 4.00 4.16



3

4

5

6

7

8



0

5

10

15

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

Mexico

Latin America

3

4

5

6

7

8



2

4

6

8

10

Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14

Mexico

Latin America



July 2013

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

< 11.50 11.70 11.90 12.10 12.30 12.50 12.70 12.90 > 12.90


24 | Exchange Rate | MXN per USD

26 | MXN per USD 2013 | evol. of fcst

25 | Exchange Rate | MXN per USD

27 | MXN per USD 2014 | evol. of fcst

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2017 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from Thomson Reuters. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.24 Exchange rate, MXN per USD (eop).25 Quarterly exchange rate, MXN per USD (eop).26 Exchange rate, evolution of 2013 forecast during the last 18 months.27 Exchange rate, evolution of 2014 forecast during the last 18 months.28 Exchange rate, panellist distribution of 2013 forecasts. Concentration of panellists in forecast


Individual Forecasts 2013 2014Banamex-Citigroup 12.40 12.30Banco Bradesco 12.21 12.33Barclays 12.20 12.20BBVA Bancomer 12.00 12.37BofA Merrill Lynch 12.80 12.40Capital Economics 12.50 12.00CEESP 12.47 12.42CIDE 12.68 12.78Credit Suisse 12.25 12.20Deutsche Bank 12.00 11.80EIU 12.15 12.30GBM Securities 12.20 11.40Goldman Sachs 12.50 12.20HSBC 12.15 12.15IMEF 12.50 12.44ING 12.50 12.00INVEX 12.09 11.97Itaú BBA 12.20 12.00Jonathan Heath & Asso. 12.28 12.68JPMorgan 11.70 -Monex 12.00 11.20Nomura 12.40 12.00Oxford Economics 12.64 12.72Prognosis 12.50 12.40RBC Capital Markets 12.25 -Santander 12.40 12.70Scotiabank 12.61 12.76UBS 12.27 11.82Vector Casa de Bolsa - -Ve Por Más 11.80 11.46SummaryMinimum 11.70 11.20Maximum 12.80 12.78Median 12.27 12.20Consensus 12.30 12.19History30 days ago 12.14 12.0960 days ago 12.09 12.0790 days ago 12.17 12.13

28 | MXN per USD 2013 | Panellist Distribution

Exchange Rate | MXN per USD

11

12

13

14

15



9

10

11

12

13

14

2000 2005 2010 2015

11

12

13

14

15



11

12

13

14

Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14



July 2013


-15

-12

-9

-6

-3


2013 2014


-200

0

200

400

600

2000 2005 2010 2015



-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

2000 2005 2010 2015

MexicoLatin America


-1.6

-1.4

-1.2

-1.0

-0.8


2013 2014



% of GDP USD bnIndividual Forecasts 2013 2014 2013 2014Banamex-Citigroup -1.7 -1.6 -10.3 -11.8Banco Bradesco - - - -Barclays -1.5 -1.2 -9.9 -6.8BBVA Bancomer -1.2 -1.3 -6.4 -9.5BofA Merrill Lynch -1.1 -0.9 0.3 12.5Capital Economics -0.3 -0.6 6.0 0.0CEESP -0.8 -1.0 -5.4 -9.4CIDE -1.8 -1.9 -10.8 -12.6Credit Suisse -1.5 -2.0 - -Deutsche Bank -1.0 -1.2 -5.0 -11.0EIU -1.2 -1.4 -8.9 -10.8GBM Securities -0.8 -0.8 2.0 2.0Goldman Sachs -1.5 -1.7 -6.7 -10.1HSBC -1.0 -1.2 -4.9 -9.5IMEF -1.0 -1.2 - -ING - - - -INVEX -0.8 -0.6 -3.3 -5.0Itaú BBA -1.4 -1.5 -5.0 -7.0Jonathan Heath & Asso. -1.5 -1.9 -9.2 -14.9JPMorgan -0.7 - -1.4 -2.3Monex - - - -Nomura -1.5 -1.5 -12.4 -15.0Oxford Economics -0.9 -1.1 -1.8 -8.1Prognosis -0.9 -1.0 -6.0 -8.6RBC Capital Markets - - - -Santander -0.8 -0.8 -5.5 -7.2Scotiabank -1.7 -2.1 -11.6 -17.9UBS -1.1 -1.4 -3.9 -9.1Vector Casa de Bolsa -1.5 -2.0 -5.3 -8.4Ve Por Más - - - -SummaryMinimum -1.8 -2.1 -12.4 -17.9Maximum -0.3 -0.6 6.0 12.5Median -1.1 -1.3 -5.4 -9.1Consensus -1.2 -1.3 -5.5 -7.9History30 days ago -1.1 -1.3 -6.2 -8.760 days ago -1.1 -1.2 -5.4 -8.290 days ago -1.1 -1.3 -5.4 -8.5

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2017 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (Banxico, Banco de Mexico). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.29 Current account balance, as % of GDP. 30 Current account balance, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.31 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD. 32 Trade balance, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.



July 2013



Individual Forecasts 2013 2014 2013 2014Banamex-Citigroup 382 418 393 430Banco Bradesco - - - -Barclays 392 432 402 438BBVA Bancomer - - - -BofA Merrill Lynch 382 398 382 385Capital Economics 394 405 388 405CEESP 387 423 392 433CIDE 383 416 394 429Credit Suisse - - - -Deutsche Bank 392 440 397 451EIU 393 428 402 439GBM Securities 397 434 395 432Goldman Sachs 378 397 384 408HSBC 399 441 404 451IMEF - - - -ING - - - -INVEX 389 404 393 409Itaú BBA - - - -Jonathan Heath & Asso. 390 423 399 438JPMorgan 397 429 398 431Monex - - - -Nomura - - - -Oxford Economics 398 451 400 459Prognosis 410 445 416 453RBC Capital Markets - - - -Santander 392 427 397 434Scotiabank 389 412 400 430UBS 386 403 390 412Vector Casa de Bolsa 401 440 406 448Ve Por Más - - - -SummaryMinimum 378 397 382 385Maximum 410 451 416 459Median 392 425 397 432Consensus 392 423 397 431History30 days ago 392 424 398 43260 days ago 394 426 399 43490 days ago 396 431 401 439

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2017 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (Banxico, Banco de Mexico). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.33 Exports, annual variation in %. 34 Exports, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.35 Imports, annual variation in %. 36 Imports, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.

370

400

430

460

490


2013 2014


-40

-20

0

20

40

2000 2005 2010 2015

MexicoLatin America


-40

-20

0

20

40

2000 2005 2010 2015

MexicoLatin America


370

400

430

460

490


2013 2014




July 2013


200

220

240

260

280

300


2013 2014


10

20

30

40

50

2000 2005 2010 2015

Mexico

Latin America


2

4

6

8

10

12

2000 2005 2010 2015

MexicoLatin America


170

180

190

200


2013 2014



USD bn USD bnIndividual Forecasts 2013 2014 2013 2014Banamex-Citigroup 180 198 - -Banco Bradesco - - - -Barclays 169 180 - -BBVA Bancomer - - - -BofA Merrill Lynch 180 195 239 266Capital Economics - - - -CEESP 174 182 - -CIDE - - - -Credit Suisse 177 197 238 245Deutsche Bank 176 189 225 230EIU - - - -GBM Securities 175 185 - -Goldman Sachs 183 195 - -HSBC 182 201 - -IMEF - - - -ING - - - -INVEX 175 195 - -Itaú BBA 193 208 - -Jonathan Heath & Asso. 180 193 - -JPMorgan 181 197 - -Monex - - - -Nomura - - - -Oxford Economics 166 182 257 268Prognosis 187 200 - -RBC Capital Markets - - - -Santander - - - -Scotiabank 169 183 229 238UBS - - - -Vector Casa de Bolsa 190 210 231 240Ve Por Más - - - -SummaryMinimum 166 180 225 230Maximum 193 210 257 268Median 180 195 235 243Consensus 179 193 237 248History30 days ago 179 194 235 24860 days ago 180 196 235 24790 days ago 179 194 234 247

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2017 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (Banxico, Banco de Mexico). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.38 International reserves, months of imports. 39 International reserves, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.40 External debt as % of GDP. 41 External debt, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.



July 2013

Mexico in the Region


Fact Sheet

Mexico21.2%

Brazil40.6%

Argentina8.6%

Venezuela6.9%

Colombia6.6%

Other16.2%

Mexico20.2%

Brazil34.6%Colombia

8.2%

Argentina7.2%

Peru5.4%

Other24.3%

U.S.A.50.5%

EU-2710.8%

Other Asia ex-Japan

8.3%

China15.5%

Other14.9%

U.S.A.78.0%

EU-275.9%

LatAm7.4%

Other8.7%

Other6.0%


Mineral Fuels8.3%

Food6.9%

Other4.1%


Mineral Fuels14.6%

Food6.5%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

-20

0

20

40

60

80

1002003-05 2006-08 2009-11

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002003-05 2006-08 2009-11

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• Large domestic market

• Commitment to sound fiscal policy

• NAFTA membership shields the economy from emerging markets crises

• Dependence on the U.S.economy• Financial sector still relatively weak• Instability created by drug-related violence

Energy (2010)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 8,778Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 7,284Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 257Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 212Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 2,978Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 2,073CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 445

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: Baa1 StableS&P: BBB PositiveFitch Ratings: BBB+ Stable


Transportation (2012) Airports: 1,744Railways (km): 17,166Roadways (km): 366,095Waterways (km): 2,900Chief Ports: Veracruz, Lazaro Cardenas

Official name: United Mexican StatesCapital: Mexico City (19.3m)Other cities: Guadalajara (4.1m)

Monterrey (3.7m)Area (km2): 1,972,550Population (million, 2012 est.): 115Population density (per km2, 2012 est.): 58.2Population growth rate (%, 2012 est.): 0.72Life expectancy (years, 2012 est.): 75.7Illiteracy rate (%, 2005): 13.9Language: Spanish and IndigenousMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT-6 to GMT-8

President: Enrique Peña NietoLast elections: 1 July 2012Next elections: July 2018Central Bank President: Agustin Carstens Carstens

FOCUSECONOMICS Peru


July 2013

Peru

REAL SECTOR | Economic activity strengthens in AprilIn April, economic activity expanded 7.7% over the same month last year, which was more than double the 3.0% increase registered in March. In addition, the reading slightly overshot market expectations that had economic activity growing 7.4%. The monthly reading was the result of strong growth in construction activity, which soared 26.5% annually in April, as well as a rebound in manufacturing production.

A month-on-month comparison confirms the strong growth suggested by the annual data, as economic activity increased a seasonally adjusted 0.80%, which is well above the 0.37% expansion observed in March.

As a result of the stronger annual expansion the trend now points upwards, with annual average growth in economic activity rising from 6.0% in March to 6.2% in April.

In its June inflation report, the Central Bank projects the economy to grow 6.1%. For 2014, the Bank sees the economy expanding 6.3%.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panellists expect GDP to expand 5.8% this year, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2014, the panel expects the economy to increase 6.0%.

OUTLOOK | Business confidence falls to lowest level in almost two yearsThe Central Bank’s business confidence indicator (Indice de Confianza Empresarial) fell from 54 points in May to 51 points in June, which represents

Forward-looking indicators point to different directions, with consumer confidence rising in June and business sentiment falling to its lowest level in almost two years in the same month. Meanwhile, on 8 July, the government announced that Luis Miguel Castilla will remain in office as the country’s Economy and Finance Minister after an upcoming cabinet reshuffle that is traditionally carried out around Peruvian Independence Day, on 28 July.

LatinFocus panellists expect the economy to expand 5.8% this year, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2014, panellists see the economy growing 6.0%.

Inflation rose from 2.5% in May to 2.8% in June. At its 11 July meeting, the Central Bank left the policy rate unchanged at 4.25%. Panellists expect inflation to end this year at 2.5%, before inching down to 2.4% in 2014.



Peru

2009-11 2012-14 2015-17Population (million): 29.6 30.9 32.4GDP (USD bn): 153 220 285GDP per capita (USD): 5,160 7,098 8,782GDP growth (%): 5.4 6.0 6.2Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): 0.1 1.2 1.1Public Debt (% of GDP): 23.9 18.9 16.8Inflation (%): 2.6 2.8 2.2Current Account (% of GDP): -1.6 -3.9 -2.8External Debt (% of GDP): 27.7 27.7 21.9

Ricardo AcevesSenior Economist


Note: Year-on-year changes of economic activity and annual average growth rate in %.Source: Peru National Statistical Institute (INEI) and FocusEconomics calculations.

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0


Year-on-year

Annual average

%

FOCUSECONOMICS Peru


July 2013

the lowest level in 22 months. As a result, the index is now just a tad above the 50-point threshold that separates optimism from pessimism.

The monthly drop was broad-based, but was particularly led by a decline in businesses’ overall demand expectations for the next three months. In addition, respondents to the June survey maintained a positive assessment regarding their financial situation as well as their access to credit, but their view was less optimistic than in the previous month.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panellists expect fixed investment will grow 10.4% this year, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2014, participants see investment growing 9.0%.

OUTLOOK | Consumer confidence rises in June The consumer confidence index published by APOYO Consultoria rose to 56 points in June from 54 points in May. As a result, the index remains above the 50-point threshold, which indicates that optimistic respondents outnumber pessimistic ones.

According to APOYO, the improvement observed in June mainly reflects consumers’ more positive assessment about the current economic situation as well as future economic prospects, particularly in the lower socio-economic levels. Meanwhile, consumer sentiment in the higher socio-economic level remained unchanged over the previous month, reflecting how households’ more positive assessment about future job prospects was offset by a less positive view of current economic conditions.

According to APOYO, at the current level, consumer confidence remains supportive for private consumption. However, two underlying risks that are likely to dent consumption going forward persist: the moderation in growth in private investment and a deterioration in the job market.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panellists expect total consumption to expand 6.4% this year, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2014, panellists expect total consumption to grow 5.7%

MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation rises in JuneIn June, consumer prices for metropolitan Lima rose 0.26% over the previous month, which came in above the 0.19% increase recorded in May. Higher prices for transport and communications as well as for housing, fuel and electricity were the main drivers behind the monthly increase.

As a result of the monthly price rise, annual headline inflation rose from 2.5% in May to 2.8% in June. Notwithstanding the rise, inflation still sits within the Central Bank’s target of 2.0% with a tolerance margin of plus/minus 1.0 percentage points.

In its June inflation report, the Central Bank expects consumer prices to end both this year and next within a range of between 1.5% and 2.5%.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panellists are slightly less optimistic and expect inflation to end 2013 at 2.5%, which is unchanged from last month’s projection. For 2014, the panel expects inflation to fall to 2.4%.

Business Confidence Index

Note: Business Confidence Index (Indice de Confianza Empresarial).Values above 50 indicate an optimistic assesment in business climate while values below 50 indicate a pessimistic assesment.Source: Peru Central Bank (BCRP).

40

50

60

70

80


Consumer Confidence Index

Note: Consumer Confidence Index (INDICCA). Values above 50 indicate an optimistic assesment in consumer sentiment while values below 50 indicate a pessimistic assesment.Source: APOYO Consultoria.

45

50

55

60



Note: Month-on-month and year-on-year changes of consumer price index in %.Source: Peru National Statistical Institute (INEI).

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0




%%

FOCUSECONOMICS Peru


July 2013

MONETARY SECTOR | Central Bank leaves interest rates unchanged, signals possible easing in reserve requirementsAt its 11 July monetary policy meeting, the Central Bank kept the reference rate unchanged at 4.25%, in a decision expected by market analysts. The Bank has left the reference rate unchanged since May 2011.

As in previous statements, the Central Bank argued that its decision was determined by the fact that inflation remains within its target range, in a context where economic growth has stabilized around its sustainable long-term rate and uncertainty in global financial markets remain. Monetary officials reiterated that “the Directory remains alert to projections for inflation and its determinants in considering future adjustments in the monetary policy instruments”. The next monetary policy is scheduled for 11 July.

Earlier, on 26 June, the Central Bank set a 20% limit on reserve requirements denominated in national currency and 43% on those denominated in foreign currency. Monetary officials have risen reserve requirements five times this year, but in its accompanying statement the Bank stated that it may start lowering them if needed, in order to spur lending and promote growth.

A majority of panellists polled by LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect that monetary authorities will maintain the reference rate unchanged this year, with a year-end projection of 4.23%. For 2014, the participants expect the monetary policy rate to end the year at 4.40%.

EXTERNAL SECTOR | Trade deficit widens in MayIn May, the trade balance recorded a USD 465 million deficit, which contrasted the USD 65 million surplus observed in the same month last year and was larger than the revised USD 433 million shortfall seen in the previous month (previously reported: USD 452 million deficit). The reading represents the fourth deficit in the last five months. As a result, in the 12 months up to May, the trade balance posted a USD 1.2 billion surplus, which came in well below the USD 1.7 billion tallied in the 12 months up to April and represents the lowest level since January 2004.

The larger trade deficit in May reflects a 9.0% annual plunge in exports, which was below the revised 2.1% decrease registered in April (previously reported: -3.2% year-on-year). Meanwhile, imports increased 5.7% in May, which was weaker that the revised 10.1% expansion observed in April (previously reported: +9.6% yoy). The 12-month sum of exports up to May fell 7.6% in annual terms (April: -7.8% yoy), whereas in the same period, imports grew 9.3% (April: +9.6% yoy).

Amid lower commodity prices and slower global demand, the Central Bank revised its export forecasts and now expects overseas sales to decline 3.5% this year, which contrasts the 3.2% expansion previously estimated. For 2014, the Bank sees exports growing 7.8% in 2014 (initially estimated: +10.3% yoy). LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panellists see exports contracting 0.1% this year, before accelerating to 8.9% in 2014.


Note: Central Bank Reference Rate in %.Source: Peru Central Bank (BCRP).

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0


%

Merchandise Trade

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the12-month sum of exports and imports in %.Source: Peru Central Bank (BCRP).

-15

0

15

30

45

-5

0

5

10

15


Trade Balance (USD bn, left scale)Exports (yoy, right scale)Imports (yoy, right scale)

%

FOCUSECONOMICS Peru


July 2013


Annual Data 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Real Sector Population (million) 28.7 29.1 29.6 30.0 30.5 30.9 31.4 31.9 32.4 32.9GDP per capita (USD) 4,432 4,371 5,206 5,904 6,535 7,103 7,656 8,285 8,744 9,315GDP (USD bn) 127 127 154 177 199 220 241 264 283 307Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 9.8 0.9 8.8 6.9 6.3 5.8 6.0 5.9 6.3 6.3Domestic Demand (annual var. in %) 12.3 -2.8 13.1 7.1 7.4 7.1 6.7 7.0 7.3 7.4Total Consumption (annual var. in %) 8.0 3.9 6.4 6.3 6.4 6.4 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.6Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) 27.1 -9.2 23.2 4.8 14.9 10.4 9.0 8.7 8.2 8.0Manufacturing (annual var. in %) 9.0 -6.9 14.1 5.6 1.3 3.7 5.0 6.4 6.8 6.7Commerce (annual var. in %) 12.8 -0.3 9.7 8.8 6.7 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.9 7.0Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 8.4 8.4 7.9 7.7 6.8 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.3 6.1Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 2.4 -1.3 -0.3 1.9 2.1 1.0 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.2Public Debt (% of GDP) 24.1 27.1 23.3 21.2 19.8 18.8 18.1 17.2 16.8 16.5Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M2 in %) 23.8 10.6 33.8 13.7 25.3 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual var. in %, eop) 6.7 0.3 2.1 4.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.1Inflation (CPI, annual var. in %, aop) 5.8 2.9 1.5 3.4 3.7 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.2Inflation (Core, annual variation in %, eop) 5.6 2.4 2.1 3.7 3.3 - - - - -Inflation (WPI, annual variation in %, eop) 8.9 -1.8 1.8 6.3 1.8 - - - - -Monetary Policy Rate (%, eop) 6.50 1.25 3.00 4.25 4.25 4.23 4.40 4.57 4.63 4.67Stock Market (variation of IGBVL in %) -59.8 99.3 66.4 -16.7 5.9 - - - - -Exchange Rate (PEN per USD, eop) 3.13 2.89 2.81 2.70 2.55 2.64 2.63 2.59 2.60 2.61Exchange Rate (PEN per USD, aop) 2.93 3.01 2.82 2.75 2.64 2.63 2.61 2.57 2.60 2.61External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -4.2 -0.6 -2.5 -1.9 -3.6 -4.2 -4.0 -3.1 -2.8 -2.5Current Account Balance (USD bn) -5.3 -0.7 -3.8 -3.3 -7.1 -9.3 -9.7 -8.3 -8.0 -7.7Trade Balance (USD bn) 2.6 6.0 6.7 9.3 4.5 1.7 1.6 2.4 3.0 3.2Exports (USD bn) 31.0 27.0 35.6 46.3 45.6 45.6 49.6 54.8 60.9 67.9Imports (USD bn) 28.4 21.0 28.8 37.0 41.1 44.2 48.0 52.4 58.0 64.6Exports (annual variation in %) 10.3 -12.9 31.9 30.1 -1.4 -0.1 8.9 10.4 11.3 11.4Imports (annual variation in %) 44.9 -26.1 37.1 28.3 10.9 7.6 8.6 9.1 10.6 11.5International Reserves (USD bn) 31.0 33.0 44.0 49.0 64.0 71.2 76.0 77.1 82.6 86.7International Reserves (months of imports) 13.1 18.9 18.3 15.9 18.7 19.3 19.0 17.6 17.1 16.1External Debt (USD bn) 35.0 35.0 44.0 48.0 59.0 59.6 63.7 61.1 62.6 63.1External Debt (% of GDP) 27.6 27.5 28.6 27.1 29.6 27.1 26.5 23.1 22.1 20.6 Quarterly Data Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 6.8 5.9 4.8 6.1 5.8 6.2 6.3 5.8 5.7 5.9Total Consumption (annual var. in %) 5.9 8.2 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.0 6.1 5.8 5.9 5.5Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) 17.1 11.2 8.5 11.0 10.4 10.1 9.2 9.1 9.7 9.2Manufacturing (annual var. in %) 3.6 2.2 -0.2 3.5 3.3 7.9 4.9 4.4 4.6 5.6Commerce (annual var. in %) 6.2 6.4 5.0 6.5 6.5 7.0 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.6Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 6.6 5.6 6.4 6.6 6.7 6.5 6.8 6.4 6.5 6.7Inflation (CPI, annual var. in %, eop) 3.8 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.2 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4Monetary Policy Rate (%, eop) 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.18 4.23 4.17 4.17 4.18 4.40Exchange Rate (PEN per USD, eop) 2.60 2.55 2.59 2.78 2.67 2.64 2.61 2.60 2.59 2.63Exchange Rate (PEN per USD, aop) 2.62 2.58 2.58 2.66 2.67 2.65 2.62 2.60 2.59 2.61Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -5.3 -3.6 -5.2 -4.5 -4.5 -3.8 -3.9 -3.8 -3.8 -3.2Current Account Balance (USD bn) -2.6 -1.9 -2.7 -2.6 -2.5 -2.1 -2.2 -2.4 -2.3 -2.0Trade Balance (USD bn) 0.6 0.9 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.0Exports (USD bn) 11.6 11.5 10.2 11.0 12.1 12.2 11.5 11.8 12.6 12.9Imports (USD bn) 11.0 10.5 10.2 10.5 11.1 11.3 10.8 11.2 11.5 11.8 Monthly Data Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13Economic Activity (IMAE, annual var. in %) 6.3 6.8 6.8 4.3 6.4 5.1 3.0 7.7 - -Manufacturing (annual variation in %) 1.6 4.5 4.2 -2.0 3.1 0.2 -3.6 4.4 - -Unemployment (% of active population) 6.1 6.0 5.7 5.2 7.5 6.5 5.2 5.1 6.7 -Consumer Confid. Index (50-point threshold) 52 55 54 58 58 57 56 54 54 56Business Confid. Index (50-point threshold) 61 64 64 64 67 66 65 60 54 51Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.55 -0.16 -0.14 0.26 0.12 -0.09 0.91 0.25 0.19 0.26Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 3.7 3.2 2.7 2.6 2.9 2.5 2.6 2.3 2.5 2.8Exchange Rate (PEN per USD, eop) 2.60 2.59 2.58 2.55 2.58 2.58 2.59 2.64 2.74 2.78Exports (annual variation in %) 1.9 1.8 15.7 -14.3 -13.9 -17.1 -13.6 -2.1 -9.0 -

FOCUSECONOMICS Peru


July 2013


1 | Real GDP | 2000 - 2017 | var. in %







8 | Investment | evolution of forecasts

Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2017 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INEI, Instituto Nacional de Estadistica e Informatica del Peru) and the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Peru). See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: INEI.2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.

Source: INEI.3 GDP, evolution of 2013 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 Total consumption, annual variation in %. Source: INEI.6 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %. Source: INEI.7 Total consumption, change in 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last

18 months.8 Gross fixed investment, change in 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the

last 18 months.9 Manufacturing, annual variation in %. Source: INEI.10 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: INEI.11 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: BCRP.12 Manufacturing, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18

months.13 Unemployment, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18

months.14 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP, evolution of 2013

and 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Individual Forecasts 2013 2014ADEX 5.9 6.2APOYO Consultoría 6.0 5.5Banco Bradesco 6.1 6.0Banco de Crédito del Perú 6.0 6.8Barclays Capital 6.2 6.5BBVA Banco Continental 6.5 6.3BofA Merrill Lynch 4.8 4.5BTG Pactual 5.6 5.8Capital Economics 5.5 5.0Citigroup Global Mkts 6.2 6.4Deutsche Bank 6.1 6.3EIU 6.0 6.3Goldman Sachs 5.5 6.0HSBC 5.8 5.6IEDEP - CCL 5.5 5.8IPE 6.0 6.4Itaú BBA 6.0 5.8JPMorgan 5.5 6.0Macroconsult 6.4 6.5Rimac Seguros 5.1 5.7Santander 5.9 6.0Scotiabank 5.7 5.9UBS 6.1 6.1SummaryMinimum 4.8 4.5Maximum 6.5 6.8Median 6.0 6.0Consensus 5.8 6.0History30 days ago 5.9 6.160 days ago 6.0 6.290 days ago 6.1 6.2Additional ForecastsCentral Bank (June 2013) 6.1 6.3IMF (Apr. 2013) 6.3 6.1World Bank (June 2013) 6.0 5.9

-5

0

5

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

PeruLatin AmericaWorld

0

3

6

9

12

Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14

PeruLatin AmericaWorld

2

4

6

8



2

4

6

8



5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5


2013 2014

0

2

4

6

8

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

PeruLatin America

-20

0

20

40

2000 2005 2010 2015

PeruLatin America

8

9

10

11

12


2013 2014

FOCUSECONOMICS Peru


July 2013


12 | Manufacturing | evolution of fcst

9 | Manufacturing | variation in %

13 | Unemployment | evolution of fcst


14 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst


3

4

5

6

7


2013 2014

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

Peru

Latin America

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0


2013 2014

5

6

7

8

9

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

PeruLatin America

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5


2013 2014

-5.0

-2.5

0.0

2.5

5.0

2000 2005 2010 2015

Peru

Latin America

Individual Forecasts 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014ADEX 6.0 6.0 - - 3.6 3.7 6.2 6.1 1.1 1.0APOYO Consultoría 5.9 5.5 8.9 6.3 1.6 4.8 - - 0.5 0.4Banco Bradesco - - - - - - - - - -Banco de Crédito del Perú 6.4 6.0 10.0 11.5 3.5 6.2 - - 0.8 1.0Barclays Capital 6.3 5.4 12.3 13.9 - - - - 0.9 0.5BBVA Banco Continental 5.7 5.3 12.2 6.8 - - - - 0.9 0.9BofA Merrill Lynch 6.5 4.6 - - - - 6.0 6.2 -0.1 -0.5BTG Pactual 6.1 6.3 7.4 5.7 - - 5.8 6.2 - -Capital Economics 5.0 4.8 10.0 8.8 - - 6.5 7.5 1.0 0.5Citigroup Global Mkts 5.7 6.0 9.0 7.7 - - 7.3 7.4 0.4 -0.9Deutsche Bank - - 8.0 10.0 - - 6.8 6.9 1.4 1.3EIU 5.6 5.2 11.0 9.0 6.1 6.2 - - 1.2 0.8Goldman Sachs - - - - - - - - 1.5 0.9HSBC 5.7 5.7 11.3 8.4 3.8 3.5 - - 0.9 0.3IEDEP - CCL 5.9 - 9.9 - 1.3 - 6.7 - 0.6 -IPE 6.5 6.1 11.8 11.4 - - - - - -Itaú BBA - - - - - - 6.6 6.4 1.5 1.2JPMorgan - - - - - - 7.0 6.5 1.2 0.9Macroconsult 13.6 7.7 12.3 9.2 4.0 4.3 - - 1.1 0.9Rimac Seguros 5.5 5.6 - - - - - - - -Santander 5.5 6.0 12.0 10.0 5.5 6.0 - - 1.7 1.5Scotiabank 6.1 5.2 9.5 7.8 2.6 4.5 - - 0.6 0.3UBS - - - - 5.0 5.7 6.9 6.8 1.0 1.2SummaryMinimum 5.0 4.6 7.4 5.7 1.3 3.5 5.8 6.1 -0.1 -0.9Maximum 13.6 7.7 12.3 13.9 6.1 6.2 7.3 7.5 1.7 1.5Median 5.9 5.6 10.0 8.9 3.7 4.8 6.7 6.5 1.0 0.9Consensus 6.4 5.7 10.4 9.0 3.7 5.0 6.6 6.7 1.0 0.7History30 days ago 6.3 5.9 10.7 10.0 4.7 5.8 6.8 6.9 1.0 0.860 days ago 6.3 6.0 11.2 10.4 4.9 5.9 7.0 7.0 1.0 0.890 days ago 5.9 5.9 11.2 10.4 5.3 6.1 7.0 6.9 1.1 0.9

variation in % variation in % variation in % % of active pop. % of GDPConsumption Investment Manufacturing Unemployment Fiscal Balance

FOCUSECONOMICS Peru


July 2013


15 | Inflation | 2000 - 2017 | in %


19 | Core and Wholesale Prices | var. in %

21 | Sovereign Spreads (EMBI+)

16 | Inflation | Q1 10-Q4 14 | in % Inflation | annual variation of consumer price index in %


20 | Money | variation in %

22 | Stock Market | IGBVL

Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2017 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INEI, Instituto Nacional de Estadistica e Informatica del Peru) and the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Peru). See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 15 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop).

Source: INEI.16 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %

(eop). Source: INEI.17 Inflation, evolution of 2013 inflation forecasts during the last 18 months.18 Inflation, evolution of 2014 inflation forecasts during the last 18 months.19 Core and wholesale price indices, annual variation in % (eop). 2000-

2012. Source: BCRP and INEI respectively.20 Money, annual variation of M2 in %. 2000-2012. Source: BCRP.21 Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus (EMBI+), basis point spread over

US treasuries. January 2008 until end of previous month. Source: JPMorgan.

22 Daily index levels. IGBVL (Indice General de la Bolsa de Valores de Lima). January 2010 until the end of previous week.

Individual Forecasts 2013 2014ADEX 1.8 1.9APOYO Consultoría 2.7 2.5Banco Bradesco - -Banco de Crédito del Perú 2.4 2.0Barclays Capital 2.5 2.3BBVA Banco Continental 2.8 2.4BofA Merrill Lynch 3.3 3.5BTG Pactual 2.2 2.4Capital Economics 2.5 2.3Citigroup Global Mkts 2.8 2.2Deutsche Bank 2.4 2.4EIU 2.7 2.8Goldman Sachs 2.5 2.5HSBC 2.4 2.1IEDEP - CCL 2.6 -IPE 2.5 2.3Itaú BBA 2.7 2.5JPMorgan 2.6 2.5Macroconsult 2.4 2.4Rimac Seguros 2.0 2.0Santander 2.3 2.7Scotiabank 2.8 3.0UBS 2.7 2.6SummaryMinimum 1.8 1.9Maximum 3.3 3.5Median 2.5 2.4Consensus 2.5 2.4History30 days ago 2.5 2.460 days ago 2.5 2.590 days ago 2.6 2.5Additional ForecastsCentral Bank (June 2013) 1.5-2.5 1.5-2.5IMF (Apr. 2013) 2.2 2.0

-5

0

5

10

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Core WPI

0

250

500

750

1,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

EMBI + LatinPeru

1

2

3

4

5



-5

0

5

10

15

2000 2005 2010 2015

PeruLatin America

-10

0

10

20

30

40

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul

1

2

3

4



0

2

4

6

8

Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14

PeruLatin America

FOCUSECONOMICS Peru


July 2013

Monetary Sector | Interest Rate and Exchange Rate

23 | Interest Rate | 2000 - 2017 | in %


27 | Exchange Rate | PEN per USD

29 | PEN per USD 2013 | evol. of fcst

24 | Interest Rate | Q1 10-Q4 14 | in % Policy Interest Rate and Exchange Rate


28 | Exchange Rate | PEN per USD

30 | PEN per USD 2014 | evol. of fcst

Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2017 unless otherwise stated. All monetary and external sector data are from the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Peru). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 23 Interest rate, Central Bank Reference Rate in % (eop). Source: BCRP.24 Quarterly interest rate, Central Bank Reference Rate in % (eop).

Source: BCRP.25 Interest rate, evolution of 2013 forecasts during the last 18 months.26 Interest rate, evolution of 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.27 Exchange rate, PEN per USD (eop). Source: BCRP.28 Quarterly exchange rate, PEN per USD (eop). Source: BCRP.29 Exchange rate, evolution of 2013 forecast during the last 18 months.30 Exchange rate, evolution of 2014 forecast during the last 18 months.31 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: BCRP.32 Trade balance, imports and exports, in USD bn. Source: BCRP.33 International reserves, months of imports. Source: BCRP.34 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2013 and 2014

forecasts during the last 18 months.35 Exports, annual variation in %. Source: BCRP.36 External debt as % GDP. Source: BCRP.

2.2

2.6

3.0

3.4



2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0



2

3

4

5

6



2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14

0

2

4

6

8

10

Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14

PeruLatin America

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2000 2005 2010 2015

0

5

10

15

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

Peru

Latin America

3

4

5

6



Individual Forecasts 2013 2014 2013 2014ADEX 4.25 4.50 2.58 2.78APOYO Consultoría - - 2.75 2.80Banco Bradesco - - - -Banco de Crédito del Perú 4.25 4.25 2.65 2.55Barclays Capital 5.00 5.00 2.68 2.50BBVA Banco Continental 4.25 5.00 2.54 2.50BofA Merrill Lynch 4.25 4.75 2.72 2.70BTG Pactual 3.75 3.75 2.75 2.81Capital Economics - - 2.80 2.85Citigroup Global Mkts 3.75 4.25 2.49 2.42Deutsche Bank 4.25 4.25 2.70 2.65EIU - - 2.63 2.63Goldman Sachs 4.25 5.00 2.85 2.87HSBC 4.25 3.75 2.70 2.70IEDEP - CCL - - 2.62 -IPE - - 2.50 2.47Itaú BBA 4.25 4.25 2.70 2.70JPMorgan 4.25 4.25 2.57 2.60Macroconsult - - 2.52 2.50Rimac Seguros 4.25 4.25 2.60 2.60Santander 4.25 - 2.60 2.55Scotiabank 4.25 4.25 2.62 2.58UBS 4.25 4.50 2.51 2.49SummaryMinimum 3.75 3.75 2.49 2.42Maximum 5.00 5.00 2.85 2.87Median 4.25 4.25 2.62 2.60Consensus 4.23 4.40 2.64 2.63History30 days ago 4.18 4.39 2.60 2.5860 days ago 4.22 4.48 2.55 2.5390 days ago 4.23 4.56 2.53 2.51

Interest Rate Exchange Rate% PEN per USD

FOCUSECONOMICS Peru


July 2013

External Sector | Current Account, Trade and International Reserves



35 | Exports | annual variation in %

32 | Trade Balance | USD billion



Individual Forecasts 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014ADEX -5.0 -4.5 0.5 5.1 44.1 50.8 43.6 45.6 77.5 80.7APOYO Consultoría -4.8 -4.7 0.4 -0.5 44.2 45.7 43.7 46.2 70.3 72.3Banco Bradesco - - - - - - - - - -Banco de Crédito del Perú -4.5 -3.3 7.9 4.5 43.9 53.2 43.1 48.7 72.5 80.0Barclays Capital -4.4 -4.0 1.0 2.2 45.6 52.3 44.6 50.1 67.5 73.5BBVA Banco Continental -4.2 -3.9 - - - - - - - -BofA Merrill Lynch -6.4 -5.8 -3.7 -4.3 40.3 43.3 44.0 47.6 66.3 68.6BTG Pactual -3.4 -3.1 2.4 3.6 44.0 46.0 41.6 42.4 - -Capital Economics -4.1 -3.5 1.5 0.9 46.8 49.9 45.3 49.0 66.0 68.0Citigroup Global Mkts -2.6 -2.7 6.1 6.0 46.6 51.4 40.5 45.4 75.9 87.1Deutsche Bank -3.5 -3.7 1.5 0.0 47.5 52.0 46.0 52.0 74.0 80.0EIU -4.2 -3.9 2.0 4.0 45.9 50.7 44.0 46.7 66.8 68.5Goldman Sachs -4.7 -4.9 1.5 1.2 46.2 49.5 44.7 48.3 77.5 83.8HSBC -4.7 -5.3 0.5 -1.6 45.6 47.8 45.1 49.4 69.9 70.6IEDEP - CCL - - -0.5 - 43.7 - 44.2 - - -IPE -4.1 -4.4 2.5 1.9 44.7 46.9 42.2 45.0 69.0 72.0Itaú BBA -4.4 -3.5 - - - - - - 72.0 80.0JPMorgan -3.8 -3.8 1.4 1.1 47.5 53.3 46.1 52.3 73.1 83.1Macroconsult -5.0 -5.6 -0.7 -3.2 45.3 48.0 46.0 51.1 74.9 80.9Rimac Seguros - - - - - - - - - -Santander -3.5 -3.3 3.9 3.3 49.3 50.5 45.4 47.2 65.4 66.4Scotiabank -3.4 -3.1 0.3 0.6 44.7 47.8 44.4 47.2 71.9 76.1UBS -3.6 -3.5 4.0 3.9 49.5 53.9 45.5 50.0 - -SummaryMinimum -6.4 -5.8 -3.7 -4.3 40.3 43.3 40.5 42.4 65.4 66.4Maximum -2.6 -2.7 7.9 6.0 49.5 53.9 46.1 52.3 77.5 87.1Median -4.2 -3.9 1.5 1.5 45.6 50.2 44.4 48.0 71.9 76.1Consensus -4.2 -4.0 1.7 1.6 45.6 49.6 44.2 48.0 71.2 76.0History30 days ago -4.0 -3.8 2.8 2.4 47.2 51.3 44.8 49.0 71.0 76.260 days ago -3.8 -3.7 3.5 3.6 48.6 53.4 45.1 49.8 71.0 76.090 days ago -3.7 -3.5 3.8 3.7 49.0 53.9 45.2 50.2 71.1 76.0

% of GDP USD bn USD bn USD bn USD bn Current Account Trade Balance Exports Imports Int. Reserves

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1


2013 2014

-5.0

-2.5

0.0

2.5

5.0

2000 2005 2010 2015

Peru

Latin America

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

2000 2005 2010 2015

PeruLatin America

-20

0

20

40

60

80

2000 2005 2010 2015


0

20

40

60

2000 2005 2010 2015

Peru

Latin America

5

10

15

20

25

2000 2005 2010 2015

PeruLatin America

FOCUSECONOMICS Peru


July 2013

Fact Sheet

Peru in the Region


Peru3.6%

Brazil40.6%

Mexico21.2%

Argentina8.6%

Venezuela6.9%

Other19.2%

Peru5.4%

Brazil34.6%

Mexico20.2%

Colombia8.2%

Argentina7.2%

Other24.3%

U.S.A.24.4%

EU-2710.6%

Other Asia ex-Japan

8.6%China13.9%

Other LatAm19.9%

Brazil6.3%

Argentina5.4%

Other10.9%U.S.A.

15.5%

Canada9.4%

Japan6.5%

Other EU-27

13.5%Spain5.2%

Other Asia ex-Japan

6.8%

China19.7%

LatAm20.0%

Other3.4%

Other2.8%


Mineral Fuels14.7%

Food10.5%

Other1.3%


Ores & Metals50.5%

Mineral Fuels12.2%

Food21.3%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

0

20

40

60

80

1002003-05 2006-08 2009-11

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002003-05 2006-08 2009-11

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• Large informal economy

• Succesfully contained inflation

. .

• Pragmatic approach to economic policy

• Strong international reserves position

• Pronounced socioeconomic inequalities• High dependence on commodity prices

Energy (2010) Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 808Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 848Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 33.3Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 29.6Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 158Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 193CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 41.9

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: Baa2 PositiveS&P: BBB PositiveFitch Ratings: BBB Stable


Transportation (2012) Airports: 191Railways (km): 1,906Roadways (km): 137,327Waterways (km): 8,808Chief Ports: Callao, Chimbote, Matarani

Official name: Republic of PeruCapital: Lima (8.7m)Other cities: Arequipa (0.8m)

Trujillo (0.7m)Area (km2): 1,285,216Population (million, 2012): 30.474Population density (per km2, 2012): 23.7Population growth rate (%, 2012 est.): 1.0Life expectancy (years, 2012 est.): 72.7Illiteracy rate (%, 2007): 7.1Language: Spanish, Quechua and

AymaraMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT-5

President: Ollanta Moises Humala TassoLast elections: 10 April 2011Next elections: April 2016Central Bank President: Julio Velarde Flores

FOCUSECONOMICS Venezuela


July 2013

Venezuela

REAL SECTOR | Car sales plummet in June In June, car sales fell 39.1% over the same month last year to reach 7,732 units, according to figures from the Venezuelan Automotive Chamber (CAVENEZ, Camara Automotriz de Venezuela). The reading follows the 5.0% decrease experienced in May and marks the sharpest drop seen since March 2010.

Building on the monthly figure, car sales added 120,254 units in the 12 months up to June, which is down 8.3% from the level observed in the same period last year (May: -3.7% year-on-year). Car sales still remain well below the peak of 491,899 units recorded in the full year 2007, as severe supply shortages following government restrictions on assembly plants and importers have severely hampered sales of vehicles in recent years.

Given the limited availability of timely data on the real sector, analysts often use car sales as a proxy for private consumption. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panellists expect private consumption to fall 0.9% this year, which is down 0.1 percentage points over the previous month’s estimate. Next year the panel sees private consumption growth at 1.9%.

The 2013 budget assumes the economy will grow 6.0% this year. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panellists, however, are far more pessimistic and expect GDP to contract 0.2% this year, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. Next year, the panel sees economic growth at 1.9%.

On 11 July, the Central Bank resumed operations in the alternative Sicad foreign exchange system, in an attempt to boost the supply of U.S. dollars in order to facilitate access to imports and combat the shortage of goods that affects the economy. Under the new version of the Sicad, individuals and companies, along with the government and the Central Bank, will be able to buy and sell U.S. dollars via a foreign-exchange auction system. According to some analysts, the new system, which will run alongside the official Cadivi, will likely sell U.S. dollars at a rate of more than twice the official exchange rate of VEF 6.30 per USD. Meanwhile, the economy remains depressed, with car sales suffering the sharpest fall in over three years in June.

LatinFocus panellists expect the economy to contract 0.2% in 2013, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2014, the panel sees GDP growing 1.9%.

Inflation soared from 33.7% in May to 37.3% in June, the highest level

seen since February 2003. The panel sees inflation at 36.0% by the end of 2013, before falling to 29.2% in 2014.



Ricard TornéSenior Economist

Venezuela

2009-11 2012-14 2015-17Population (million): 29.2 31.0 32.9GDP (USD bn): 294 382 479GDP per capita (USD): 10,094 12,353 14,643GDP growth (%): -0.2 2.4 2.6Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -4.2 -4.5 -3.1Public Debt (% of GDP): 24.5 29.2 33.8Inflation (%): 28.3 28.0 25.7Current Account (% of GDP): 4.0 3.4 4.2External Debt (% of GDP): 33.6 31.9 28.0

Car Sales

Note: Year-on-year variation and 12-month sum of domestic car sales in thousand units.Source: Venezuelan Automobile Chamber (CAVENEZ).

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12-month sum (right scale)

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July 2013

MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation soars to more than 10-year high in June In June, the consumer price index for the Caracas Metropolitan Region rose 4.31% over the previous month, which was below the whooping 6.15% increase tallied in May. The reading reflects higher prices for transport as well as for clothing and footwear.

Building on the monthly increase, annual headline inflation jumped from 33.7% in May to 37.3% in June, which represents the highest level observed since February 2003. Meanwhile, the core inflation index, which excludes volatile items such as fresh food, oil and other goods subject to government price controls, rose 4.97% over the previous month, down from the 6.28% increase tallied in May. As a result, annual core inflation soared from 36.6% in May to 40.6% in June, the highest level recorded since August 2003.

According to the 2013 budget, the Venezuelan government expects inflation to end the year between 14.0% and 16.0%. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panellists expect consumer prices to rise 36.0% by the end of this year, which is up 1.7 percentage points from last month’s forecast. Next year, the panel sees inflation at 29.2%.

EXTERNAL SECTOR | Venezuelan oil broadly stable in June In June, the average price of the Venezuelan mix of crude oil fell 0.4% over the previous month to USD 100.1 per barrel. The June reading contrasts the 0.8% rise seen in May. Oil prices were broadly unchanged in June as a positive flow of economic data in the United States was offset by deteriorating prospects for China as well as fears over the Fed’s QE tapering.

According to the latest report from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Venezuelan oil production reached 2.33 million barrels per day (mbpd) in June, slightly below the 2.34 mbpd seen in the previous month.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panellists expect oil prices to average USD 99.7 per barrel this year, which is down USD 0.6 per barrel over the last month’s Consensus. In 2014, the panel sees oil prices rising to USD 101.0 per barrel.


Note: Annual and monthly variation of consumer price index in %.Source: Venezuela National Statistical Institute (INE).

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Note: Price of the Venezuelan mix of crude oil in USD per barrel.Source: Ministry of Petroleum and Mining.

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July 2013


Annual Data 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Real Sector Population (million) 28.1 28.6 29.2 29.8 30.4 31.0 31.6 32.2 32.9 33.5GDP per capita (USD) 11,236 11,498 8,179 10,606 12,527 11,488 13,045 13,130 14,843 15,956GDP (USD bn) 315 329 239 316 380 355 411 422 485 531Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 5.3 -3.2 -1.5 4.2 5.6 -0.2 1.9 2.2 2.7 2.9Domestic Demand (annual var. in %) 4.7 -7.7 -0.5 7.6 12.3 -3.3 1.1 2.0 3.1 3.7Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 6.3 -2.9 -1.9 4.0 7.0 -0.9 1.9 1.9 2.6 3.5Government Consumption (annual var. in %) 4.8 1.5 2.1 5.9 6.3 1.9 1.5 3.3 3.7 3.7Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) 2.4 -8.3 -6.3 4.4 23.3 -2.0 0.6 3.0 4.4 4.7Manufacturing (annual var. in %, aop) 1.4 -6.4 -3.4 3.8 1.8 -0.3 1.3 2.5 2.8 3.2Car Sales (annual var. in %) -44.8 -49.7 -8.3 -3.7 8.2 - - - - -Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 7.4 7.9 8.5 8.2 7.8 8.8 8.7 8.7 8.5 8.3Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -1.2 -5.0 -3.6 -4.0 -4.9 -4.6 -3.9 -3.4 -3.2 -2.7Public Debt (% of GDP) 14.0 18.2 30.1 25.1 27.5 29.5 30.5 33.1 33.8 34.4Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual var. of M2 in %) 23.1 14.3 19.1 50.6 60.1 47.4 36.1 30.4 30.3 24.8Inflation (CPI, annual var. in %, eop) 31.9 26.9 27.4 29.0 19.5 36.0 29.2 27.2 23.9 22.9Inflation (CPI, annual var. in %, aop) 31.4 28.6 29.1 27.1 21.1 32.1 31.1 28.2 25.6 23.4Inflation (Core, annual var. in %, eop) 33.8 34.6 29.3 30.9 21.5 - - - - -Inflation (WPI, annual var. in %, eop) 32.4 24.8 26.8 20.8 16.6 - - - - -90-Day Average Deposit Rate (%, eop) 17.3 15.1 14.6 14.5 14.5 14.6 14.9 16.0 17.2 17.8Stock Market (IBC, variation in %) -7.4 57.0 18.6 79.1 302.8 - - - - -Exchange Rate (VEF per USD, eop) 2.15 2.15 4.30 4.30 4.30 6.31 8.23 9.53 10.26 12.57Exchange Rate (VEF per USD, aop) 2.15 2.15 4.26 4.30 4.30 6.07 6.98 8.88 9.89 11.42External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 10.2 0.7 3.7 7.7 2.9 4.1 3.3 4.3 4.2 3.9Current Account Balance (USD bn) 32.1 2.3 8.8 24.4 11.0 14.5 13.6 18.1 20.6 20.9Trade Balance (USD bn) 43.5 16.4 27.2 46.0 38.0 40.4 39.4 38.3 38.5 38.6Exports (USD bn) 95.0 57.6 65.7 92.8 97.3 94.5 95.4 97.4 100.3 103.9Imports (USD bn) 51.5 40.7 38.5 46.8 59.3 54.0 56.1 58.8 61.8 65.3Exports (annual variation in %) 35.8 -39.4 14.1 41.2 4.9 -3.0 1.0 2.1 3.0 3.6Imports (annual variation in %) 9.0 -21.0 -5.2 21.5 26.8 -9.0 3.8 4.8 5.2 5.7Venezuelan Oil Price (USD per barrel, aop) 86.5 57.0 72.0 101.1 103.4 99.7 101.0 101.5 107.4 107.7International Reserves (USD bn) 42.3 35.0 29.5 29.9 29.9 27.2 27.9 30.0 28.1 29.4International Reserves (months of imports) 9.9 10.3 9.2 7.7 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.1 5.4 5.4External Debt (USD bn) 66.4 81.9 97.1 110.7 118.9 120.7 125.4 128.2 134.0 138.4External Debt (% of GDP) 21.1 24.9 40.7 35.1 31.3 34.0 30.5 30.4 27.6 26.1 Quarterly Data Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 5.5 5.5 0.7 -0.3 -0.7 -0.5 0.9 1.7 2.2 3.0Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 7.8 7.1 3.2 -1.0 -2.9 -3.2 0.3 1.0 1.7 4.7Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) 15.6 32.9 9.6 -5.7 -4.8 -5.2 0.0 0.5 0.2 2.1Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 7.7 6.5 8.2 9.1 9.4 8.5 8.8 8.7 8.9 8.2Inflation (CPI, annual var. in %, eop) 19.1 19.5 24.2 37.3 38.1 36.0 33.2 30.9 27.9 29.290-Day Average Deposit Rate (%, eop) 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.7 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.7 14.9Exchange Rate (VEF per USD, eop) 4.30 4.30 6.30 6.30 6.34 6.31 6.65 6.89 7.13 8.23Exchange Rate (VEF per USD, aop) 4.30 4.30 5.42 6.30 6.34 6.33 6.48 6.77 7.01 7.68Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 2.3 -0.6 2.1 6.0 4.9 3.8 2.8 3.5 3.4 3.8Current Account Balance (USD bn) 2.3 -0.6 1.7 4.9 4.4 3.7 2.6 3.6 3.6 3.9Trade Balance (USD bn) 8.6 6.8 8.3 11.2 11.0 10.3 8.4 9.5 10.9 10.4Exports (USD bn) 23.3 24.6 22.2 23.5 24.1 24.6 22.6 23.6 24.6 24.3Imports (USD bn) 14.7 17.8 13.9 12.4 13.1 14.2 14.2 14.1 13.7 13.9 Monthly Data Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13Manufacturing (annual var. in %) 0.3 3.9 4.4 -2.2 1.8 2.5 -11.1 - - -Car Sales (annual var. in %) -12.7 5.4 33.4 -31.2 -12.9 -30.8 -21.0 28.8 -5.0 -39.1Unemployment (% of active population) 7.3 7.3 6.4 5.9 9.4 7.6 7.7 7.9 7.8 -Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 1.92 1.72 2.01 2.91 3.26 1.41 2.73 3.87 6.15 4.31Inflation (CPI, annual var. in %) 19.1 18.5 18.2 19.5 21.6 22.1 24.2 27.9 33.7 37.3Exchange Rate (VEF per USD, eop) 4.30 4.30 4.30 4.30 4.30 6.30 6.30 6.30 6.30 6.30Venezuela Oil Price (USD per barrel, aop) 103.1 100.4 96.7 97.8 102.3 106.9 102.3 99.6 100.4 100.1



July 2013


1 | Real GDP | 2000 - 2017 | var. in %







8 | Investment | evolution of forecasts

Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2017 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadistica), the Central Bank (BCV, Banco Central de Venezuela) and the Ministry of Energy (Menpet, Ministerio del Poder Popular para la Energia y Petroleo). See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: BCV.2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.

Source: BCV.3 GDP, evolution of 2013 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 Private consumption, annual variation in %. Source: BCV.6 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %. Source: BCV.7 Private consumption, change in 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last

18 months.8 Gross fixed investment, change in 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the

last 18 months.9 Oil price, average USD per barrel. Source: Menpet.10 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: INE.11 Balance of non-financial central government as % of GDP. Source:

BCV.12 Oil price, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18

months.13 Unemployment, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18

months.14 Balance of non-financial central government as % of GDP, evolution of

2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Individual Forecasts 2013 2014Azpurua García Velázquez 0.9 1.6Banco Espirito Santo 0.1 2.3Banco Mercantil -0.1 1.6Banesco 1.3 1.8Barclays Capital -1.4 2.7BofA Merrill Lynch -3.6 0.9Capital Economics -1.0 -0.5Citigroup Global Mkts 1.0 2.0Credit Suisse 0.0 1.9Deutsche Bank 0.9 2.4Ecoanalítica 0.7 2.7Econometrica -1.3 -EIU 0.2 2.2Goldman Sachs 1.6 2.5HSBC -0.9 2.1JPMorgan 0.0 3.0Polinomics -2.2 -UBS 0.5 2.0SummaryMinimum -3.6 -0.5Maximum 1.6 3.0Median 0.1 2.1Consensus -0.2 1.9History30 days ago -0.1 2.160 days ago 0.4 2.290 days ago 0.8 2.3Additional Forecasts Government (Oct. 2012) 6.0 -IMF (Apr. 2013) 0.1 2.3World Bank (June 2013) 1.4 2.4

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VenezuelaLatin America

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Latin America

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July 2013


12 | Oil Price | evolution of forecasts

9 | Oil Price | USD per barrel





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Venezuela

Latin America

Individual Forecasts 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014Azpurua García Velázquez - - - - - - -2.8 -3.0 90.0 90.0Banco Espirito Santo 0.0 - 1.2 - - - -5.1 -4.5 - -Banco Mercantil - - - - - - -3.7 -3.8 101.4 100.0Banesco 3.5 2.5 2.8 0.9 8.0 8.1 -4.3 -6.7 102.2 105.0Barclays Capital -1.5 2.5 -10.6 -2.5 - - - - 100.8 108.0BofA Merrill Lynch -5.9 0.1 -8.6 -7.9 9.7 9.5 -4.3 -4.5 98.6 98.9Capital Economics -1.0 -0.5 -7.5 0.5 - - -7.5 -5.0 - -Citigroup Global Mkts - - - - - - - - - -Credit Suisse 0.3 1.5 2.5 2.5 - - -3.1 -1.5 - -Deutsche Bank 0.3 3.0 2.0 4.0 8.3 8.2 -5.3 -3.5 - -Ecoanalítica -3.8 3.7 2.4 3.5 8.0 7.8 -5.6 -2.2 102.3 103.8Econometrica -1.7 - -7.0 - 8.5 - - - 100.0 -EIU -0.3 1.8 3.0 4.0 9.3 9.6 - - - -Goldman Sachs - - - - - - -5.0 -4.5 - -HSBC -0.2 2.7 - - 9.5 9.0 - - - -JPMorgan - - - - - - - - - -Polinomics - - - - 9.5 - - - 102.3 -UBS - - - - 8.5 8.6 -4.3 -4.0 - -SummaryMinimum -5.9 -0.5 -10.6 -7.9 8.0 7.8 -7.5 -6.7 90.0 90.0Maximum 3.5 3.7 3.0 4.0 9.7 9.6 -2.8 -1.5 102.3 108.0Median -0.3 2.5 1.6 1.7 8.5 8.6 -4.3 -4.0 101.1 101.9Consensus -0.9 1.9 -2.0 0.6 8.8 8.7 -4.6 -3.9 99.7 101.0History30 days ago -0.8 1.8 -1.8 0.7 8.9 8.8 -4.3 -3.9 100.3 102.260 days ago -0.6 2.0 -2.0 0.8 8.9 8.7 -3.9 -3.9 100.7 104.690 days ago 0.1 2.2 -0.6 0.8 8.8 8.6 -4.1 -4.1 102.5 106.4

Consumption variation in %

Investment variation in %

Oil Price USD per barrel

Unemployment % of active pop.

Fiscal Balance % of GDP



July 2013


15 | Inflation | 2000 - 2017 | in %


19 | Core and Wholesale Prices | % var.

21 | Sovereign Spreads (EMBI+)

16 | Inflation | Q1 10-Q4 14 | in % Inflation | annual variation of consumer price index in %


20 | Money | variation in %

22 | Stock Market | IBC

Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2017 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadistica) and the Central Bank (BCV, Banco Central de Venezuela). See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 15 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) of the Caracas

Metropolitan Area in % (eop). Source: BCV.16 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) of the

Caracas Metropolitan Area in % (eop). Source: BCV.17 Inflation, evolution of 2013 forecasts during the last 18 months.18 Inflation, evolution of 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.19 Core and wholesale price indices, annual variation in % (eop). 2000-

2012. Source: BCV.20 Money, annual variation of M2 in %. Source: BCV.21 Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus (EMBI+), basis point spread over

US treasuries. Source: JPMorgan. Jan. 2008 until end of previous month.

22 Daily index levels. IBC (Indice de la Bolsa de Valores de Caracas). Jan. 2010 until end of previous week.

Individual Forecasts 2013 2014Azpurua García Velázquez 37.2 39.8Banco Espirito Santo 27.3 27.7Banco Mercantil 38.5 29.5Banesco 41.6 30.7Barclays Capital 32.9 28.5BofA Merrill Lynch 48.4 38.7Capital Economics 30.0 30.0Citigroup Global Mkts 25.0 24.0Credit Suisse 39.8 33.2Deutsche Bank 29.0 24.0Ecoanalítica 38.6 27.9Econometrica 43.0 -EIU 35.2 25.5Goldman Sachs 41.2 22.0HSBC 38.5 26.7JPMorgan 40.8 30.7Polinomics 30.0 -UBS 31.0 28.0SummaryMinimum 25.0 22.0Maximum 48.4 39.8Median 37.8 28.3Consensus 36.0 29.2History30 days ago 34.3 28.160 days ago 31.4 26.490 days ago 30.0 26.6Additional Forecasts Government (Oct. 2012) 14.0 - 16.0 -IMF (Apr. 2013) 28.0 27.3

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July 2013

Monetary Sector | Interest Rate and Exchange Rate

23 | Interest Rate | 2000 - 2017 | in %


27 | Exchange Rate | VEF per USD

29 | VEF per USD 2013 | evol. of fcst

24 | Interest Rate | Q1 10-Q4 14 | in % Policy Interest Rate and Exchange Rate


28 | Exchange Rate | VEF per USD

30 | VEF per USD 2014 | evol. of fcst

Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2017 unless otherwise stated. All monetary and external sector data are from the Central Bank (BCV, Banco Central de Venezuela). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 23 Interest rate, weighted average of 90-day deposit rate of 6 major

commercial banks in % (eop). 24 Quarterly interest rate, weighted average of 90-day deposit rate of 6

major commercial banks in % (eop).25 Interest rate, evolution of 2013 forecasts during the last 18 months.26 Interest rate, evolution of 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.27 Exchange rate, VEF per USD (eop).28 Quarterly exchange rate, VEF per USD (eop).29 Exchange rate, evolution of 2013 forecast during the last 18 months.30 Exchange rate, evolution of 2014 forecast during the last 18 months.31 Current account balance as % of GDP.32 Trade balance, imports and exports, in USD bn.33 International reserves, months of imports.34 Current account balance in USD bn, change in 2013 and 2014 forecasts

during the last 18 months.35 Exports, annual variation in %.36 External debt as % of GDP. Source: BCV and FocusEconomics

calculations.

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Individual Forecasts 2013 2014 2013 2014Azpurua García Velázquez 14.0 14.0 6.30 8.40Banco Espirito Santo - - - -Banco Mercantil 14.5 14.5 6.30 -Banesco 14.5 14.5 6.30 8.50Barclays Capital - - 6.30 8.00BofA Merrill Lynch - - 6.29 8.00Capital Economics - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts - - 6.50 6.50Credit Suisse 14.5 14.7 6.30 9.50Deutsche Bank 15.5 - 6.30 8.50Ecoanalítica 13.9 14.1 6.30 8.50Econometrica 14.5 - 6.30 -EIU 14.5 17.0 6.28 6.28Goldman Sachs 15.0 15.0 6.30 8.80HSBC - - 6.30 7.80JPMorgan - - - -Polinomics 15.0 - 6.30 -UBS 14.8 15.2 6.30 10.00SummaryMinimum 13.9 14.0 6.28 6.28Maximum 15.5 17.0 6.50 10.00Median 14.5 14.6 6.30 8.45Consensus 14.6 14.9 6.31 8.23History30 days ago 14.7 15.0 6.31 7.8160 days ago 14.6 15.0 6.31 7.5890 days ago 14.6 15.0 6.31 7.30

Interest Rate Exchange Rate% VEF per USD



July 2013

External Sector | Current Account, Trade and International Reserves



35 | Exports | annual variation in %




Individual Forecasts 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014Azpurua García Velázquez 9.5 7.0 32.0 30.0 88.0 84.0 56.0 54.0 25.2 26.5Banco Espirito Santo - - - - - - - - - -Banco Mercantil 16.7 14.4 42.0 39.4 96.3 96.6 54.2 57.2 29.3 32.1Banesco - - 37.7 46.0 96.9 103.0 59.2 57.0 29.1 30.4Barclays Capital 17.4 18.8 43.3 48.3 95.8 106.1 52.5 57.8 29.8 29.8BofA Merrill Lynch 14.0 15.9 38.4 40.0 89.0 95.2 50.6 55.2 31.0 32.0Capital Economics 10.0 5.0 38.0 25.0 88.0 75.0 50.0 50.0 - -Citigroup Global Mkts 22.4 24.6 38.8 41.1 89.2 85.9 50.4 44.8 25.0 23.5Credit Suisse 9.8 7.8 - - - - - - 27.0 24.8Deutsche Bank 19.0 18.0 50.0 56.0 105.0 115.0 55.0 59.0 29.0 29.0Ecoanalítica 23.5 26.1 43.4 41.5 94.0 96.0 50.6 54.4 28.4 28.0Econometrica 22.5 - 47.5 - 95.0 - 47.5 - 26.0 -EIU 2.6 7.4 30.8 34.1 91.2 94.5 60.4 60.4 25.7 26.7Goldman Sachs 4.5 -3.1 32.6 25.8 94.5 94.1 61.9 68.3 27.0 27.6HSBC 18.6 21.7 45.8 42.0 96.7 93.3 51.0 51.4 25.2 24.1JPMorgan - - 46.7 - 98.5 - 51.8 - 29.0 -Polinomics 13.2 - 38.9 - 95.3 - 56.4 - 21.7 -UBS - - 41.0 42.6 98.0 101.8 57.0 59.2 - -SummaryMinimum 2.6 -3.1 30.8 25.0 88.0 75.0 47.5 44.8 21.7 23.5Maximum 23.5 26.1 50.0 56.0 105.0 115.0 61.9 68.3 31.0 32.1Median 15.4 15.1 40.0 41.1 95.1 95.2 53.4 57.0 27.0 27.8Consensus 14.5 13.6 40.4 39.4 94.5 95.4 54.0 56.1 27.2 27.9History30 days ago 18.2 15.1 43.2 41.6 96.4 97.1 53.2 55.5 28.4 29.460 days ago 19.1 16.7 44.2 44.7 97.6 100.7 53.4 56.0 28.2 29.190 days ago 19.3 17.0 43.9 44.6 98.4 101.5 54.5 56.9 28.5 29.3

Imports Int. ReservesUSD bn USD bn USD bn

Current Account Trade Balance USD bn USD bn

Exports

10

15

20

25

30

35


2013 2014

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2000 2005 2010 2015


-50

-25

0

25

50

75

2000 2005 2010 2015


0

25

50

75

100

125

2000 2005 2010 2015


0

20

40

60

2000 2005 2010 2015

Venezuela

Latin America

0

10

20

30

2000 2005 2010 2015




July 2013

Fact Sheet

Venezuela in the Region


Venezuela6.9%

Brazil40.6%

Mexico21.2%

Argentina8.6%

Colombia6.6%

Other16.2%

Venezuela5.4%

Brazil34.6%

Mexico20.2%

Colombia8.2%

Argentina7.2%

Other24.3%

U.S.A.31.2%

EU-2714.0%

China16.5%

Other LatAm18.8%

Brazil8.9%

Other10.5%

U.S.A.39.3%

EU-275.5%China

14.4%

India12.0%

LatAm6.9%

Other21.9%

Other3.9%


Food15.4%

Other4.7%

Mineral Fuels95.3%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

0

20

40

60

80

1002002-04 2005-07 2008-10

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002002-04 2005-07 2008-10

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• Substantial oil wealth • Dependence on oil• High revenues from oil exports • Polarised economic policy• Progress in health and education • Persistent inflation• Membership of Mercosur • Exchange rate misalignments

Energy (2010)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 7,003Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 3,321Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 115Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 91.5Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 2,375Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 718CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 158

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: B2 NegativeS&P: B NegativeFitch Ratings: B+ Negative

Communications (2012) Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 25.6Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 102Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 44.0Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 6.7

Transportation (2012) Airports: 492Railways (km): 806Roadways (km): 96,155Waterways (km): 7,100Chief Ports: La Guaira, Maracaibo

Official name: Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela

Capital: Caracas (5.6m)Other cities: Maracaibo (4.1m)

Valencia (2.6m)Area (km2): 912,050Population (million, 2012 est.): 30.4Population density (per km2, 2012 est.): 33.3Population growth rate (%, 2012 est.): 1.5Life expectancy (years, 2012 est.): 74.1Illiteracy rate (%, 2001): 7.0Language: SpanishMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT-4.30

President: Nicolas Maduro MorosLast elections: 14 April 2013Next elections: 2018Central Bank President: Edmee Betancourt

FOCUSECONOMICS Bolivia


July 2013

BoliviaRecent indicators suggest the economy continued to expand at a

robust pace in the second quarter, as economic activity increased 6.8% over the same month last year in April, which was above the 5.1% expansion observed in March. Against this backdrop, on 8 July, Central Bank President Marcelo Zabalaga stated that he sees GDP growth at 5.5% this year. Earlier in June, Bolivia’s President Evo Morales announced that growth may even reach 7.0% in 2013.

LatinFocus panellists expect the economy to expand 4.9% this year, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2014, participants expect the economy to grow 4.8%.

Inflation inched up from 4.7% in May to 4.8% in June. Consensus Forecast panellists expect inflation to end this year at 5.0%, before moderating to 4.7% in 2014.

Outlook stable



Bolivia

4 | GDP | evolution of forecasts

1 | GDP | variation in %



6 | Inflation | evolution of forecasts

3 | Inflation | in %

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5


2013 2014

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

5.0


2013 2014

-5

0

5

10

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

BoliviaLatin AmericaWorld

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0


2013 2014

0

5

10

15

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

BoliviaLatin America

-10

-5

0

5

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

Bolivia

Latin America

2006-08 2009-11 2012-14Population (million): 9.8 10.4 11.0GDP (USD bn): 13.7 20.3 28.9GDP per capita (USD): 1,396 1,944 2,611GDP growth (%): 5.2 4.2 5.0Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): 3.3 0.9 1.2Public Debt (% of GDP): 44.3 37.7 33.0Inflation (%): 8.9 5.2 4.7Current Account (% of GDP): 11.6 3.2 5.3External Debt (% of GDP): 32.6 34.2 32.9

Other Countries



July 2013


7 | Exchange Rate | BOB per USD

9 | BOB per USD | evolution of fcst



Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2014 unless otherwise stated. All data are from the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadistica) and the Central Bank (BCB, Banco Central de Bolivia). See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: INE.2 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: BCB.3 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop).

Source: INE.4 GDP, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP, evolution of 2013

and 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.6 Inflation, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18

months.7 Exchange rate, BOB per USD (eop). Source: Thomson Reuters.8 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: BCB.9 Exchange rate, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18

months.10 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2013 and 2014

forecasts during the last 18 months.

6

7

8

9

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

1

2

3

4

5


2013 2014

6.9

7.0

7.1

7.2


2013 2014

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

BoliviaLatin America

Annual Data 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Real Sector Population (million) 9.4 9.6 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.4 10.6 10.8 11.0 11.3GDP per capita (USD) 1,013 1,189 1,335 1,663 1,696 1,885 2,253 2,421 2,609 2,802GDP (USD bn) 9.5 11.5 13.1 16.7 17.3 19.7 23.9 26.2 28.8 31.5Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 4.4 4.8 4.6 6.1 3.4 4.1 5.2 5.2 4.9 4.8Total Consumption (annual var. in %) 3.3 4.0 4.1 5.3 3.7 3.9 5.4 4.7 4.5 4.6Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) 6.6 9.0 12.8 18.7 2.7 8.0 23.5 1.5 5.5 9.5Unemployment (% of active population, eop) 8.1 8.0 7.7 6.7 7.9 6.5 8.0 7.8 7.4 7.4Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -2.2 4.5 1.7 3.6 0.2 1.7 0.8 1.8 1.3 0.7Public Debt (% of GDP) 80.4 55.2 40.5 37.2 40.0 38.5 34.7 33.1 33.3 32.6Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M2 in %) 46.4 51.4 69.9 35.8 12.2 25.1 20.7 20.2 - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) 4.9 4.9 11.7 11.8 0.3 7.2 6.9 4.5 5.0 4.7Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 5.4 4.3 8.7 14.0 3.3 2.5 9.9 4.5 4.8 4.7Prime Lending Rate (in %, eop) 11.6 11.8 14.4 13.8 9.1 10.4 10.8 10.6 11.0 11.5Exchange Rate (BOB per USD, eop) 7.95 7.94 7.58 7.00 7.02 7.01 6.91 7.01 6.95 6.95Exchange Rate (BOB per USD, aop) 8.03 7.94 7.82 7.24 7.02 7.02 7.00 6.99 6.95 6.95External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 5.9 11.3 11.5 11.9 4.3 3.9 1.4 7.6 3.6 4.6Current Account Balance (USD bn) 0.6 1.3 1.5 2.0 0.7 0.8 0.3 2.0 1.0 1.5Trade Balance (USD bn) 0.4 1.1 1.0 1.4 0.4 0.8 0.7 2.8 3.0 3.3Exports (USD bn) 2.8 3.9 4.5 6.5 5.0 6.4 8.3 11.1 12.4 13.8Imports (USD bn) 2.3 2.8 3.5 5.1 4.6 5.6 7.7 8.3 9.3 10.2Exports (annual variation in %) 30.1 38.8 15.1 46.4 -24.0 29.1 30.4 33.0 11.8 11.0Imports (annual variation in %) 24.1 20.5 22.4 47.5 -10.3 22.4 36.9 7.9 12.2 9.8International Reserves (USD bn) 2.4 4.0 6.0 8.5 9.9 11.0 13.1 15.2 15.2 16.1International Reserves (months of imports) 12.5 16.9 20.8 20.1 26.0 23.6 20.5 22.0 19.6 18.9External Debt (USD bn) 3.2 3.4 4.3 5.9 6.2 6.2 8.5 9.4 9.4 9.5External Debt (% of GDP) 33.2 29.8 32.6 35.3 35.6 31.5 35.4 35.8 32.5 30.2



July 2013

Fact Sheet

Bolivia in the Region


Bolivia0.5%

Brazil40.6%

Mexico21.2%

Argentina8.6%

Venezuela6.9%

Other22.3%

Bolivia1.9%

Brazil34.6%

Mexico20.2%

Colombia8.2%

Argentina7.2%

Other27.8%

U.S.A.9.9%

EU-277.4%

Asia ex-Japan6.5%

Other LatAm11.9%

Chile20.8%

Brazil19.9%

Argentina11.7%

Other11.9%U.S.A.

17.7%

EU-275.6%

Asia ex-Japan7.0%

Other LatAm6.4%

Brazil40.3%

Argentina7.7%

Peru5.3%

Other10.1%

Other1.7%


Mineral Fuels12.4%

Food8.4%

Other1.0%

Manufact. Products

5.4%

Ores & Metals34.1%

Mineral Fuels43.6%

Food15.9%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

0

20

40

60

80

1002003-05 2006-08 2009-11

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002003-05 2006-08 2009-11

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• Small market size• Profound regional divisions• Widespread poverty

• Rich in natural resources • High illiteracy rates

• Entitled to participate in programs for poor countries from international organisations

Energy (2010)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 639Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 233Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 6.6Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 5.8Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 48.5Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 54.4CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 13.3

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: Ba3 StableS&P: BB- StableFitch Ratings: BB- Stable


Transportation (2012) Airports: 865Railways (km): 3,652Roadways (km): 80,488Waterways (km): 10,000Chief Ports: Puerto Aguirre

Official name: Plurinational State of Bolivia

Capital (Administrative): La Paz (1.9 m)Capital (Judicial): Sucre (0.2 m)Other cities: Cochabamba (0.9 m)Area (km2): 1,098,581Population (million, 2012 est.): 10.8Population density (per km2, 2012): 9.9Population growth rate (%, 2012 est.): 1.7Life expectancy (years, 2012 est.): 67.9Illiteracy rate (%, 2001): 13.3Language: Spanish, Quechua and

AymaraMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT-4

President: Juan Evo Morales AymaLast elections: 6 December 2009Next elections: December 2014Central Bank President: Marcelo Zabalaga E.

FOCUSECONOMICS Ecuador


July 2013

EcuadorOutlook stableEcuador







-4

-3

-2

-1


2013 2014

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5


2013 2014

-5

0

5

10

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

EcuadorLatin AmericaWorld

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0


2013 2014

0

25

50

75

100

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

EcuadorLatin America

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

Ecuador

Latin America

The Ecuadorean government is seeking financing from China to fund a planned 24% increase in public spending this year. According to Finance Minister Fausto Herrera, the first disbursement of a USD 1.4 billion loan is expected next month, but it is not yet known whether it will be tied to oil sales or will be granted directly. Simultaneously, the government is planning to issue foreign bonds beginning in the first quarter of 2014, in order to finance next year’s budget.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panellists see the economy growing 4.2% this year, which is unchanged from the previous month’s estimate. For 2014, panellists see economic growth at 4.3%.

In June, inflation fell to 2.7% from 3.0% in May. The panel sees year-end inflation at 4.4%, which is down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month’s forecast. In 2014, the panel expects inflation to drop to 4.0%.


Armando CiccarelliHead of Research

2006-08 2009-11 2012-14Population (million): 14.1 14.8 15.5GDP (USD bn): 53.2 69.4 92.1GDP per capita (USD): 3,755 4,686 5,952GDP growth (%): 4.3 3.6 4.5Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): 1.6 -2.1 -1.5Public Debt (% of GDP): 26.1 18.2 23.1Inflation (%): 4.6 4.4 4.1Current Account (% of GDP): 3.4 -0.8 -0.9External Debt (% of GDP): 32.7 20.6 18.9



July 2013






Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2014 unless otherwise stated. All data are from the National Statistical Institute (INEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadistica y Censos) and the Central Bank (BCE, Banco Central del Ecuador). See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: BCE.2 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: BCE.3 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop).

Source: INEC.4 GDP, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP, evolution of 2013


months.7 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: INEC.8 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: BCE.9 Trade balance, imports and exports, in USD bn. Source: BCE.10 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2013 and 2014


4

8

12

16

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

Ecuador

Latin America

-3

-2

-1

0

1


2013 2014

-10

0

10

20

30

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012


-6

-3

0

3

6

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

Ecuador

Latin America

Annual Data 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Real Sector Population (million) 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.5 15.7GDP per capita (USD) 3,022 3,357 3,605 4,301 4,290 4,584 5,184 5,557 5,957 6,344GDP (USD bn) 41.5 46.8 51.0 61.8 62.5 67.8 77.8 84.7 92.1 99.6Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 5.3 4.4 2.2 6.4 0.6 2.9 7.4 5.0 4.2 4.3Total Consumption (annual var. in %) 4.3 4.3 4.4 6.2 0.9 4.4 5.4 4.8 4.5 4.0Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 4.4 4.4 4.2 5.4 -1.0 5.0 5.6 4.1 - -Government Consumption (annual var. in %) 3.6 3.8 5.7 11.1 11.6 1.5 4.5 8.5 - -Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) 10.7 5.0 3.7 16.0 -3.6 5.1 15.8 11.3 6.7 8.4Industrial Production (annual var. in %) 6.9 10.6 17.7 0.4 -2.1 0.4 15.7 -2.0 5.7 6.8Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 10.7 10.1 8.8 6.9 8.5 7.6 6.0 4.9 5.8 5.7Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 0.6 2.8 1.6 0.5 -3.9 -1.5 -0.9 -0.5 -2.3 -1.8Public Debt (% of GDP) 35.0 28.8 27.2 22.2 16.4 19.7 18.7 22.0 23.5 23.7Monetary and Financial Sector Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) 3.0 2.9 3.3 8.8 4.3 3.3 5.4 4.2 4.4 4.0Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 2.1 3.3 2.3 8.4 5.2 3.6 4.5 5.1 3.5 3.891-120 Day Average Deposit Rate (%, eop) 4.1 4.87 5.64 5.14 5.44 4.28 4.53 4.53 4.53 4.59External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 1.1 3.7 3.7 2.8 0.3 -2.4 -0.3 -0.3 -1.7 -0.9Current Account Balance (USD bn) 0.5 1.7 1.9 1.7 0.2 -1.6 -0.2 -0.2 -1.6 -0.8Trade Balance (USD bn) -0.2 0.6 0.4 -0.2 -1.2 -3.1 -2.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.2Exports (USD bn) 10.1 12.7 14.3 18.5 13.9 17.5 22.3 23.8 25.6 27.2Imports (USD bn) 10.3 12.1 13.9 18.7 15.1 20.6 24.3 25.2 27.3 28.3Exports (annual var. in %) 30.3 26.0 12.5 29.3 -25.1 26.2 27.6 6.5 7.9 5.9Imports (annual var. in %) 25.0 17.8 14.7 34.5 -19.2 36.5 17.9 3.7 8.3 3.9International Reserves (USD bn) 2.2 2.0 3.5 4.5 3.8 2.6 3.0 2.5 2.6 2.9International Reserves (months of imports) 2.5 2.0 3.0 2.9 3.0 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.2External Debt (USD bn) 17.2 17.1 17.4 17.0 13.5 14.0 15.3 16.0 17.5 18.8External Debt (% of GDP) 41.5 36.5 34.2 27.5 21.7 20.6 19.7 18.9 19.0 18.9



July 2013

Fact Sheet

Ecuador in the Region

Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin AmericaEcuador

1.3%

Brazil40.6%

Mexico21.2%

Argentina8.6%

Venezuela6.9%

Other21.3%

Ecuador2.7%

Brazil34.6%

Mexico20.2%

Colombia8.2%

Argentina7.2%

Other27.0%

U.S.A.28.0%

EU-2711.9%

Other Asia ex-Japan

7.1%China11.2%

Other LatAm22.2%

Colombia9.3%

Other10.3%

U.S.A.37.0%

EU-2711.6%Asia ex-

Japan7.3%

Other LatAm13.0%

Chile8.1%

Peru7.1%

Other16.0%

Other2.7%


Mineral Fuels15.1%

Food8.8%

Other4.8% Manufact.

Products9.0%

Mineral Fuels54.3%

Food31.9%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

-20

0

20

40

60

80

1002003-05 2006-08 2009-11

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002003-05 2006-08 2009-11

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• Substantial oil wealth

• Polarised political system• High potential for social unrest.

.

• High dependence on oil revenues

• Government pledges to maintain dollarisation

• Dollarisation provides safe calculation base

Energy (2010)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 1,167Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 563Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 17.1Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 14.7Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 486Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 226CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 24.4

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: Caa1 StableS&P: B StableFitch Ratings: B- Positive


Transportation (2012) Airports: 431Railways (km): 965Roadways (km): 43,670Waterways (km): 1,500Chief Ports: Guayaquil, Manta

Official name: Republic of EcuadorCapital: Quito (2.2m)Other cities: Guayaquil (2.6m)

Cuenca (0.3m)Area (km2): 283,561Population (million, 2012 est.): 15.2Population density (per km2, 2012 est.): 53.6Population growth rate (%, 2012 est.): 1.4Life expectancy (years, 2012 est.): 75.9Illiteracy rate (%, 2003): 7.5Language: Spanish, QuechuaMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT-5

President: Rafael Correa DelgadoLast elections: 17 February 2013Next elections: 2017Central Bank President: Diego Martinez

FOCUSECONOMICS Paraguay


July 2013

ParaguayIn the first quarter, the economy expanded an impressive 14.8%

over the same period last year, which contrasted the 0.9% decline registered in the last quarter of 2012. The result mainly reflected a whopping 32.2% increase in fixed investment as well as a rebound in exports. In addition, recent data point to another quarter of solid growth, with economic activity expanding 19.9% in April, which was above the 12.1% increase tallied in March.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast participants see the economy expanding 11.0% this year, which is up 0.1 percentage points over the previous month’s estimate. Next year, the panel expects that growth will moderate to 4.3%.

Inflation rose from 0.9% in May to 1.7% in June. Panellists expect inflation to close this year at 4.4%, which is down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month’s forecast. Next year, inflation is expected to rise to 5.0%.

Outlook improves



Paraguay







-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5


2013 2014

4

6

8

10

12


2013 2014

-5

0

5

10

15

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

ParaguayLatin AmericaWorld

4

6

8

10


2013 2014

0

5

10

15

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

Paraguay

Latin America-6

-3

0

3

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

Paraguay

Latin America

2006-08 2009-11 2012-14Population (million): 6.0 6.4 6.8GDP (USD bn): 12.8 18.9 27.1GDP per capita (USD): 2,107 2,937 3,981GDP growth (%): 5.5 4.3 4.6Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): 1.3 0.7 -1.1Public Debt (% of GDP): 20.8 15.3 12.7Inflation (%): 9.3 5.2 3.8Current Account (% of GDP): 3.1 1.5 -0.5External Debt (% of GDP): 27.5 23.9 25.0



July 2013


7 | Exchange Rate | PYG per USD

9 | PYG per USD | evolution of fcst



Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2014 unless otherwise stated. All data are from Central Bank (BCP, Banco Central del Paraguay). See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 1 GDP, annual variation in %.2 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP.3 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop).4 GDP, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP, evolution of 2013


months.7 Exchange rate, PYG per USD (eop).8 Current account balance as % of GDP.9 Exchange rate, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18



3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

-4

-3

-2

-1

0


2013 2014

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500


2013 2014

-5

0

5

10

15

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

ParaguayLatin America

Annual Data 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Real Sector Population (million) 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.7 6.8 6.9GDP per capita (USD) 1,290 1,568 2,020 2,732 2,271 2,843 3,695 3,534 4,076 4,332GDP (USD bn) 7.5 9.3 12.2 16.8 14.3 18.2 24.1 23.5 27.7 30.0Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 2.1 4.8 5.4 6.4 -4.0 13.1 4.3 -1.2 11.0 4.3Total Consumption (annual var. in %) 3.1 2.9 5.3 7.1 -0.5 13.5 8.2 3.1 6.0 5.0Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) 2.7 4.1 12.4 17.8 -6.9 21.7 11.0 -7.7 15.9 10.5Unemployment (% of active population, eop) 5.8 6.5 5.5 5.7 6.4 6.0 6.0 7.9 5.8 5.8Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 0.8 0.5 1.0 2.5 0.1 1.4 0.8 -1.9 -0.9 -0.4Public Debt (% of GDP) 32.7 26.5 20.4 15.4 19.0 15.4 11.5 14.1 12.1 11.8Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual var. of M2 in %) 16.3 15.9 39.4 19.1 28.8 15.7 17.5 12.6 - -Inflation (CPI, annual var. in %, eop) 9.9 12.5 6.0 7.5 1.9 7.2 4.9 4.0 4.4 5.0Inflation (CPI, annual var. in %, aop) 6.8 9.6 8.1 10.2 2.6 4.6 8.3 3.7 3.2 4.7Certif. of Deposit Rate 180 Days (%, eop) 9.01 10.69 7.93 11.19 7.94 8.79 11.49 10.85 12.50 12.02Exchange Rate (PYG per USD, eop) 6,150 5,234 4,877 4,954 4,654 4,621 4,479 4,339 4,285 4,419Exchange Rate (PYG per USD, aop) 6,172 5,636 5,047 4,382 4,978 4,770 4,211 4,448 4,317 4,339External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -0.9 1.8 6.4 1.1 3.5 -0.4 1.2 0.4 -0.7 -1.3Current Account Balance (USD bn) -0.1 0.2 0.8 0.2 0.5 -0.1 0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.4Trade Balance (USD bn) 1.2 1.1 1.5 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.0 -0.3Exports (USD bn) 4.9 6.0 7.5 9.7 7.8 10.5 12.6 12.0 12.9 13.7Imports (USD bn) 3.7 4.9 6.0 8.7 6.6 9.6 11.7 11.1 12.9 14.0Exports (annual var. in %) 16.6 23.7 25.4 29.2 -20.3 35.0 20.6 -5.3 8.1 5.7Imports (annual var. in %) 22.4 32.0 23.6 44.0 -23.6 44.6 22.4 -5.3 16.4 8.0International Reserves (USD bn) 1.3 1.7 2.5 2.9 3.9 4.2 5.0 5.0 5.6 6.7International Reserves (months of imports) 4.2 4.2 4.9 4.0 7.0 5.2 5.1 5.4 5.2 5.8External Debt (USD bn) 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.9 3.9 4.5 4.7 6.0 6.9 7.5External Debt (% of GDP) 40.9 33.0 26.4 23.2 27.4 24.8 19.4 25.3 24.8 24.9



July 2013

Fact Sheet

Paraguay in the Region


Paraguay0.4%

Brazil40.6%

Mexico21.2%

Argentina8.6%

Venezuela6.9%

Other22.4%

Paraguay1.2%

Brazil34.6%

Mexico20.2%

Colombia8.2%

Argentina7.2%

Other28.5%

U.S.A.11.4%

EU-275.8%Other Asia ex-Japan

5.8%

China19.4%

Other LatAm9.4%

Brazil24.1%

Argentina19.2%

Other4.9%Russia

11.8%

EU-2712.0%

Other LatAm8.4%

Uruguay18.3%

Argentina16.3%

Brazil16.2%

Other17.0%

Other1.3%


Mineral Fuels13.3%

Food7.7%

Other4.1% Manufact.

Products10.7%

Food85.2%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

-20

0

20

40

60

80

1002003-05 2006-08 2009-11

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002003-05 2006-08 2009-11

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



.

• Vulnerability to commodity price variation• Dependence on neighbouring economies

• Commitment to structural reforms

• Favourable conditions for agriculture

Energy (2010)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 522Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 438Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 53.5Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 6.8Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 31.2CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 4.4

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: Ba3 StableS&P: BB- StableFitch Ratings: BB- Stable


Transportation (2012) Airports: 800Railways (km): 36Roadways (km): 29,500Waterways (km): 3,100Chief Ports: Asuncion

Official name: Republic of ParaguayCapital: Asuncion (0.6m)Other cities: Ciudad del Este (0.2m)

Pedro Juan Caballero (0.1m)Area (km2): 406,752Population (million, 2012 est.): 6.7Population density (per km2, 2012 est.): 16.4Population growth rate (%, 2012 est.): 1.3Life expectancy (years, 2012 est.): 76.4Illiteracy rate (%, 2003): 6.0Language: Spanish, GuaraniMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT-4

President*: Federico FrancoLast elections: 21 April 2013Next elections: 2018Central Bank President: Jorge Corvalan Mendoza* Horacio Cartes will assume office on 15 August 2013.

FOCUSECONOMICS Uruguay


July 2013

REAL SECTOR | Industrial production contracts in MayIn May, industrial production contracted 1.6% over the same month last year, which contrasted the 12.1% increase recorded in April. The deterioration was mainly driven by a plunge in the production of basic metals as well as of plastic products.

Excluding the contribution of the La Teja refinery – the country’s only oil refinery and a key contributor to overall production – industrial output also contracted 1.6% in May, which contrasts the 14.1% increase recorded in the previous month.

As a result of the monthly increase, the trend is now pointing downwards, with annual average growth in industrial production falling from 10.2% in April to 9.2% in May.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panellists expect industrial production to increase 4.1% this year, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2014, the panel sees industrial output at 4.9%.

For this year, panellists expect GDP to grow 3.7%, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and for 2014 the panel sees economic output expanding 3.8%.

On 27 June, the Central Bank announced a change in its monetary policy strategy with the aim of better fighting inflation within a context of massive inflows of foreign capital. The Central Bank switched its focus to controlling monetary aggregates rather than using a single monetary policy rate. The Bank set a target of 12.5% to 13.0% annual growth for money supply (measured as M1+) for the third quarter of this year, and will gradually lower this target rate until reaching 8% by Q2 2015. Meanwhile, industrial production deteriorated in May, as output - excluding the La Teja refinery’s contribution - contracted 1.6% annually, contrasting the strong 14.1% expansion recorded in the previous month.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast participants expect GDP to expand 3.7% this year, which is down 0.1 percentage points over last month’s projection. In 2014, panellists see the economy expanding 3.8%.

In June, inflation inched up to 8.2% from 8.1% in May. The panel expects inflation to end this year at 8.1%, before moderating to 7.3% in 2014.

Outlook moderates


Joan Enric DomeneEconomist

2009-11 2012-14 2015-17Population (million): 3.4 3.4 3.4GDP (USD bn): 38.7 56.0 69.5GDP per capita (USD): 11,512 16,505 20,313GDP growth (%): 5.9 3.8 4.1Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -1.1 -1.9 -1.4Public Debt (% of GDP): 59.5 56.1 47.4Inflation (%): 7.3 8.0 6.5Current Account (% of GDP): -2.0 -3.5 -2.7External Debt (% of GDP): 41.0 40.0 36.6

Uruguay

Uruguay


Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average variation of industrial production in %.Source: National Statistical Institute (INE) and FocusEconomics calculations.

-20

0

20

40


Year-on-year

Annual average

%



July 2013

MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation inches up in JuneIn June, consumer prices increased 0.43% over the previous month, which was above the 0.32% rise seen in May but below market expectations of a 0.53% rise. The reading was largely driven by higher prices for transport as well as recreation and culture.

Meanwhile, annual inflation inched up from 8.1% in May to 8.2% in June, which is well above the Central Bank’s target range of 4.0%-6.0%.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast participants expect inflation to moderate to 8.1% by the end of the year, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2014, panellists anticipate that inflation will fall to 7.3% by year-end.

MONETARY SECTOR | Central Bank switches to money-supply targeting to fight off inflationAt its latest meeting on 27 June, the Central Bank announced a change in its monetary policy strategy with the aim of better fighting inflation within a context of massive inflows of foreign capital. The Central Bank switched its focus to monetary aggregates, such as money in circulation and bank deposit levels, rather than using a single monetary policy rate.

The Bank set a target of 12.5% to 13.0% annual growth for money supply (measured as M1+, which includes the sum of local currency held by the public, demand deposits and savings accounts) for the third quarter of this year, and will gradually lower this target rate until reaching 8% by the second quarter of 2015. Simultaneously, the government announced an imposition of a 50% reserve requirement on government bonds owned by non-residents and raised an existing 40% requirement on Central Bank notes to 50%. These moves aim at discouraging hot-money flows in a bid to curb dollar inflows into the economy, which caused an appreciation of the Uruguayan peso.

In the accompanying statement, the Bank also announced a widening of its annual inflation target range to between 3.0% and 7.0% starting in July 2014, from the current 4.0% to 6.0% target.


Note: Annual and monthly variation of consumer price index in %.Source: National Statistical Institute (INE).

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0




%%

Monetary Base | M1 in %

Note: Year-on-year changes and 3-month average variation of M1+ in %.Source: Uruguay Central Bank (BCU).

0

10

20

30

40


Year-on-year

3-Month Average

%



July 2013


Annual Data 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Real SectorPopulation (million) 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4GDP per capita (USD) 9,298 8,969 11,618 13,951 15,084 16,772 17,658 19,046 20,269 21,623GDP (USD bn) 31.0 30.0 39.0 47.0 51.0 56.9 60.1 65.0 69.4 74.3Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 7.2 2.3 9.0 6.5 3.9 3.7 3.8 4.1 4.1 4.2Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 9.1 -1.6 13.7 8.9 6.6 4.8 4.0 4.4 4.4 4.2Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) 19.3 -5.7 13.3 5.5 19.4 5.7 4.3 4.6 5.1 5.2Industrial Production (annual var. in %) 12.1 -4.0 3.5 0.5 5.8 4.1 4.9 4.0 4.0 4.0Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 7.9 7.7 7.1 6.3 6.3 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.3Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -1.1 -1.5 -1.2 -0.6 -2.0 -1.9 -1.7 -1.4 -1.3 -1.3Public Debt (% of GDP) 63.3 62.7 58.0 57.8 53.7 58.0 56.6 49.1 47.3 45.6Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M1+ in %) 17.9 15.2 30.0 20.8 11.2 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual var. in %, eop) 9.2 5.9 6.9 8.6 7.5 8.1 7.3 6.2 6.0 5.8Inflation (CPI, annual var. in %, aop) 7.9 7.1 6.7 8.1 8.1 8.3 7.7 7.4 6.1 5.9Monetary Policy Rate (TPM in %, eop) 7.75 6.25 6.50 8.75 9.00 9.38 8.81 7.88 7.60 7.00Exchange Rate (UYU per USD, eop) 24.4 19.5 19.9 19.9 19.2 20.3 21.3 22.1 22.7 23.4Exchange Rate (UYU per USD, aop) 21.0 22.6 19.5 19.6 19.5 20.0 21.1 21.7 22.4 23.1External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -5.6 -1.3 -1.9 -2.9 -5.3 -3.1 -2.3 -3.0 -2.8 -2.5Current Account Balance (USD bn) -1.7 -0.4 -0.7 -1.4 -2.7 -1.8 -1.4 -1.9 -1.9 -1.8Trade Balance (USD bn) -1.7 -0.5 -0.5 -1.4 -2.4 -2.1 -1.8 -1.8 -1.2 -1.3Exports (USD bn) 7.1 6.4 8.0 9.3 9.9 10.2 11.1 11.8 12.8 13.9Imports (USD bn) 8.8 6.9 8.6 10.7 12.3 12.3 12.9 13.5 14.2 15.1Exports (annual var. in %) 39.1 -9.9 25.6 15.5 6.7 3.5 8.1 6.2 8.5 8.7Imports (annual var. in %) 56.1 -21.7 24.1 25.1 14.5 0.6 5.0 4.6 5.1 6.3International Reserves (USD bn) 6.3 8.0 7.7 10.3 13.6 13.7 13.5 14.6 14.7 14.9International Reserves (months of imports) 8.6 13.9 10.8 11.5 13.3 13.3 12.5 12.9 12.4 11.8External Debt (USD bn) 12.0 14.1 14.5 18.3 21.1 22.4 23.6 24.5 25.4 26.4External Debt (% of GDP) 38.8 46.9 37.1 39.0 41.4 39.3 39.4 37.7 36.7 35.5 Quarterly Data Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 2.9 4.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.8 4.0 3.7Inflation (CPI, annual var. in %, eop) 8.6 7.5 8.5 8.2 8.1 8.1 7.7 7.7 7.6 7.3Monetary Policy Rate (TPM in %, eop) 8.75 9.00 9.25 9.25 9.39 9.38 9.31 9.20 9.00 8.81Exchange Rate (UYU per USD, eop) 21.0 19.2 18.8 20.4 20.6 20.3 20.9 21.2 21.4 21.3 Monthly Data Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13Industrial Production (annual var. in %) 14.0 18.9 18.5 9.7 26.1 6.2 -2.1 12.1 -1.6 -Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 1.21 1.15 0.35 -0.73 1.90 0.99 0.66 0.45 0.32 0.43Inflation (CPI, annual var. in %) 8.6 9.1 9.0 7.5 8.7 8.9 8.5 8.1 8.1 8.2Exchange Rate (UYU per USD, eop) 21.0 19.8 19.6 19.2 19.1 19.1 18.8 19.0 20.2 20.4



July 2013

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product and Fiscal Balance

1 | Real GDP | 2000-2017 | var. in %




2 | Real GDP | Q1 10-Q4 14 | var. in % Economic Growth and Fiscal Balance



8 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcstNotes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2017 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the from the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadistica) and the Central Bank (BCU, Banco Central de Uruguay). See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: BCU.2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.

Source: BCU.3 GDP, evolution of 2013 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: INE.6 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: BCU.7 Unemployment, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18

months.8 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP, evolution of 2013

and 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Individual Forecasts 2013 2014 2013 2014BBVA Research 3.7 3.9 -2.0 -2.1BofA Merrill Lynch 4.9 4.3 -1.3 -1.3cinve 3.3 3.3 -2.2 -EIU 4.0 4.2 -1.8 -1.8Equipos Consultores 3.4 3.1 -2.3 -2.7HSBC 3.5 3.8 -1.4 -1.4Iecon - UdelaR 4.0 4.5 -2.0 -1.8JPMorgan 3.5 4.0 -1.8 -1.2Oikos 4.0 3.9 -1.7 -1.5República AFAP 3.2 2.9 - -Santander 3.5 3.5 -2.2 -1.6SummaryMinimum 3.2 2.9 -2.3 -2.7Maximum 4.9 4.5 -1.3 -1.2Median 3.5 3.9 -1.9 -1.6Consensus 3.7 3.8 -1.9 -1.7History30 days ago 3.8 3.9 -1.9 -1.760 days ago 3.8 4.0 -1.9 -1.790 days ago 3.8 4.0 -1.9 -1.7Additional ForecastsWorld Bank (June 2013) 3.8 4.1 - -IMF (Apr. 2013) 3.8 4.0 - -CEPAL (Apr. 2013) 3.9 - - -

Real GDP Fiscal Balancevariation in % % of GDP

-10

-5

0

5

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

UruguayLatin AmericaWorld

5

10

15

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

UruguayLatin America

0

5

10

15

Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14

UruguayLatin AmericaWorld

3

4

5

6



2

3

4

5

6



5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0


2013 2014

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5


2013 2014

-6

-4

-2

0

2000 2005 2010 2015

Uruguay

Latin America



July 2013

Monetary and External Sector | Inflation and Exchange Rate

9 | Inflation | 2000 - 2017 | in %

11 | Inflation | evolution of forecast

13 | Exchange Rate | UYU per USD

15 | UYU per USD | evol. of fcst

10 | Interest Rate | 2000 - 2017 | in % Consumer Price Index and Exchange Rate

12 | Interest Rate | evolution of fcst



Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2017 unless otherwise stated. All monetary and external sector data are from the from the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadistica), the Central Bank (BCU, Banco Central de Uruguay) and Thomson Reuters. See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 9 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop).

Source: INE.10 Interest rate, monetary policy rate in % (eop). Source: BCU.11 Inflation, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18

months.12 Interest rate, evolution of 2014 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18

months.13 Exchange rate, UYU per USD (eop). Source: Thomson Reuters.14 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: BCU.15 Exchange rate, evolution of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18



10

15

20

25

30

2000 2005 2010 2015

-4

-3

-2

-1


2013 2014

18

20

22

24

26


2013 2014

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

2000 2005 2010 2015


0

10

20

30

2000 2005 2010 2015


0

20

40

60

2000 2005 2010 2015

Uruguay

Latin America

4

6

8

10


2013 2014

7

8

9

10


2013 2014

Individual Forecasts 2013 2014 2013 2014BBVA Research 8.0 7.0 21.5 23.6BofA Merrill Lynch 8.0 7.5 20.5 20.5cinve 8.4 8.2 - -EIU 7.7 5.9 18.6 18.3Equipos Consultores 8.5 7.9 21.1 22.4HSBC 7.8 7.5 20.0 21.0Iecon - UdelaR 8.2 7.5 21.0 22.0JPMorgan 7.7 6.6 19.5 21.6Oikos 8.0 7.0 21.1 21.7República AFAP 8.2 7.7 - -Santander 8.2 7.4 19.5 20.5SummaryMinimum 7.7 5.9 18.6 18.3Maximum 8.5 8.2 21.5 23.6Median 8.0 7.5 20.5 21.6Consensus 8.1 7.3 20.3 21.3History30 days ago 8.0 7.2 20.0 20.960 days ago 7.9 7.2 19.3 20.190 days ago 7.9 7.3 19.5 20.4Additional ForecastsIMF (Apr. 2013) 7.8 7.0 - -

CPI Exchange Ratevariation in % UYU per USD



July 2013

Uruguay in the Region


Fact Sheet

Uruguay0.9%

Brazil40.6%

Mexico21.2%

Argentina8.6%

Venezuela6.9%

Other21.9%

Uruguay0.6%

Brazil34.6%

Mexico20.2%

Colombia8.2%

Argentina7.2%

Other29.1%

U.S.A.8.9%

EU-2713.7%

China16.1%

Other LatAm6.8%

Argentina15.8%

Brazil14.6%

Paraguay7.6%

Other16.5%

EU-2714.6%

China17.9%

Other LatAm16.0%

Brazil18.5%

Argentina6.8%

Other26.3%

Other12.3%


Mineral Fuels25.9%

Other3.6%


Agric. Raw Mat.

8.5%

Food59.3%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports Imports

-20

0

20

40

60

80

1002003-05 2006-08 2009-11

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002003-05 2006-08 2009-11

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• Small domestic market

.

• Privatization and deregulation lagging• Dependence on neighbouring economies

• Commited to free market economic policy• Strong natural resource endowment

Energy (2010)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 93.0Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 212Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 10.7Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 9.1Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 0.9Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 55.9CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 7.3

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: Baa3 PositiveS&P: BBB- StableFitch Ratings: BBB- Stable


Transportation (2012) Airports: 94Railways (km): 1,641Roadways (km): 77,732Waterways (km): 1,600Chief Ports: Montevideo

Official name: Oriental Republic of Uruguay

Capital: Montevideo (1.3 m)Other cities: Canelones (0.4 m)

Maldonado (0.1 m)Area (km2): 176,215Population (million, 2013 est.): 3.3Population density (per km2, 2012): 18.8Population growth rate (%, 2012 est.): 0.2Life expectancy (years, 2012 est.): 76.4Illiteracy rate (%, 2004): 2.0Language: SpanishMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT-3

President: Jose Mujica CordanoLast elections: 29 November 2009Next elections: October 2014Central Bank President: Mario Bergara Duque

Imports

FOCUSECONOMICS


July 2013

Notes and Statements

PUBLICATION NOTE

Consensus forecasts are mean averages of projections of economic forecasters surveyed by FocusEconomics for our monthly publication. Quarterly averages may not correspond to the annual figures due to different forecast panels.

The GDP-weighted averages for the regional aggregates refer to economies surveyed by FocusEconomics on a monthly basis, and include the following countries:

Latin America (20 countries): Argentina, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela.Andean Community (4 countries): Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru.Central America (7 countries): Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama,Mercosur (5 countries): Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and Venezuela.

Weights are based on market exchange rates and reflect the latest forecasts on GDP growth, inflation and exchange rates.

COPYRIGHT NOTE

© Copyright 2013 FocusEconomics S.L. Duplication, reproduction, transmission, publication or redistribution in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, or otherwise without prior written consent of FocusEconomics S.L. is strictly prohibited. Please cite source when quoting. All rights reserved under International Copyright Conventions.

The LatinFocus Consensus Forecast is a monthly publication of FocusEconomics. Communications to the Editor or FocusEconomics in general should be addressed as follows:

FocusEconomics S.L.Gran Via 657E-08010 BarcelonaSpaintel: +34 932 651 040fax: +34 932 650 804e-mail: [email protected] web: http://www.focus-economics.com

DISCLOSURE STATEMENT

The LatinFocus Consensus Forecast (“Forecast”) is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable. FocusEconomics and the participating panellists (“Information Providers”) do not guarantee that the information supplied in the Forecast is accurate, complete or timely. The Information Providers do not make any warranties with regard to the results obtained from the Forecast. The Information Providers are not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for any injuries or damages resulting from the use of this information, including incidental and consequential damages. Recipients should not regard the Forecast as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgement. The recommendations made in the Forecast may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. The Forecast has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation of any transaction or an offer to enter into any transaction. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice and the Information Providers are under no obligation to update the information contained herein.

Notes

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast - July 2013

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