CONSENSUS FORECAST - FocusEconomics€¦ · CONSENSUS FORECAST GREECE2 CALENDAR 11 NOTES 13...

CONSENSUS FORECAST

GREECE 2CALENDAR 11NOTES 13

ContributorsARNE POHLMAN Chief EconomistARMANDO CICCARELLI Head of ResearchRICARDO ACEVES Senior EconomistRICARD TORNÉ Senior Economist

OLGA COSCODAN EconomistCARL KELLY EconomistTERESA KERSTING EconomistDIRINA MANÇELLARI Economist

ANGELA BOUZANIS EconomistCECILIA SIMKIEVICH EconomistMIRIAM DOWD Editor

PUBLICATION DATE 31 March 2015FORECASTS COLLECTED 24 March - 30 March 2015

INFORMATION AVAILABLE Up to and including 30 March 2015 NEXT EDITION 5 May 2015

Greece • April 2015

FOCUSECONOMICS Greece

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 2

April 2015

Greece

POLITICS | Greece presents new reform plan in hopes of securing desperately-needed cash On 27 March, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras presented Greece’s newest reform plan to Eurozone leaders and the IMF in an effort to unlock desperately-needed funds and avoid bankruptcy. The new economic plan follows tense negotiations over Greece’s future in earlier weeks and includes previously-discussed measures to crack down on corruption and tax evasion as well as honoring the privatization sales that have already been completed. In the latest version of the plan, which was debated with troika representatives and creditors over the weekend, Tsipras also conceded to retain an unpopular property tax in the plan and increase the value-added tax for Greek islands. The Greek government says its plan will help raise EUR 3 billion of revenue and generate a 1.5% primary budget surplus this year. However, the proposal did not touch on reforms to the pension system or labor laws, two areas which Eurozone leaders insist must be overhauled. A four-month extension of Greece’s EUR 240 billion bailout program was approved by Eurozone finance ministers on 24 February, although no new funds have yet been dispersed. Eurozone leaders have stipulated that Greece will have to outline a comprehensive reform plan and fulfill the conditions to receive the extension

The Greek economy grew in 2014 for the first time in six years, largely on the back of a recovery in private consumption and the external sector. However, Greece’s future is shrouded in uncertainty. The country is at the brink of bankruptcy and desperately needs additional financing from its European lenders. On 27 March, Prime Minister Alexis Tspiras presented Greece’s newest reform plan, which includes previously-discussed measures to reduce corruption and tax evasion. Tsipras also conceded to retain an unpopular property tax and increase the value added tax for Greek islands, although the proposal did not touch on reforms to the pension system or labor laws. Further discussions with troika representatives are slated for this week, but at this point it is unlikely the latest plan will be enough to cement a deal and allow Greece to receive bailout extension funding.

Looking forward, Greece’s outlook is deteriorating rapidly. The government’s funding gap is weighing heavily on the forecast and political tensions are rising in the country. Further, large downside risks of another election or even a ”grexit” from the Eurozone still loom. FocusEconomics Consensus panelists expect the economy to expand 0.9% in 2015, which is down 0.7 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel sees the economy growing 2.3%.

In February, harmonized consumer prices fell 1.9% over the same month of the previous year (January: -2.8% year-on-year). Panelists expect consumer prices to fall 1.3% in 2015. For 2016, the panel sees consumer prices rising 0.5%.

Outlook deteriorates

LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages

2011-13 2014-16 2017-19Population (million): 11.1 11.0 11.0GDP (EUR bn): 195 180 197GDP per capita (EUR): 17,543 16,337 17,895GDP growth (%): -6.5 1.3 2.5Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -10.3 -2.0 -0.3Public Debt (% of GDP): 168 173 157Inflation (%): 1.1 -0.8 1.3Current Account (% of GDP): -5.5 1.1 0.6

Angela BouzanisEconomist

Greece



April 2015

funds. Further talks are planned for this week, but it is not clear if the latest proposal will be enough to seal a deal nor is it known when new funds might be released.

Tsipras’ move comes amidst increasing uncertainty over Greece’s future. The country’s finances have depleted and Greece has a number of payments due in the upcoming weeks, including a EUR 467 million loan repayment to the IMF on 9 April and EUR 6.7 billion due for maturing bonds in July and August. On 25 March, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised the amount that Greek banks can borrow from EUR 69.8 billion to EUR 71.1 billion extending a small lifeline to the country’s finances. However, the European Financial Stability Facility denied Greece’s appeal for cash on the same day, and Eurozone leaders have reiterated that Greece must commit to reform to earn funds. Moreover, Tsipras faces a tough road ahead even if Greece does receive additional funding. Tsipras campaigned on an anti-austerity platform and his coalition government has had to compromise on some key campaign pledges in the reform plan. Hard left-wing members of the coalition have criticized the government’s actions and there is a risk of political gridlock or snap elections if they oppose Tsipras’ policies.

Looking forward, Greece’s outlook is deteriorating. The government must walk a tight-rope between balancing anti-austerity campaign promises and satisfying creditors’ demands for reform. On the extreme side, the possibility of another snap election or even a ”grexit’” from the Eurozone still pose a large downside risk. Against this backdrop, FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists revised their projections for 2015 downward this month. Panelists foresee a 0.9% expansion, which is down 0.7 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel expects growth to pick up to 2.3%.

REAL SECTOR | Industrial production swings back to expansionIn January, industrial production expanded a working-day adjusted 0.1% compared to the same month of the previous year, which contrasted the revised 3.2% contraction tallied in December (previously reported: -3.8%). January’s gain reflected an improvement in all of the sub-components that comprise the index.

Industrial output declined 4.7% over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms in January, which was below the 2.7% fall in December. January’s result marked a five-month low. Annual average variation in industrial production increased from minus 2.2 in December to minus 1.9 in January.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see industrial production falling 0.1% in 2015, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2016, the panel sees industrial production increasing 1.0%.

REAL SECTOR | Unemployment rate rises in DecemberThe number of unemployed fell by 300 in December, according to the Hellenic Statistical Authority (EL.STAT.). December’s fall marked a smaller drop over November’s 11,400 decrease.

The unemployment rate inched up from 25.9% in November to 26.0% in December. The reading was below that of the same month of the previous year (December 2013: 27.3%). Despite the improvements registered in recent months, Greece’s unemployment rate is still well above the Eurozone average.

Industrial Production | variation in %

Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average variation of industrial production index in %.Source: Hellenic Statistical Authority (EL.STAT.) and FocusEconomics calculations.

-10

-5

0

5

Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15

Year-on-year

Annual average

%

Labour Market

Note: Month-on month variation of unemployed people in thousands and unemployment rate in %.Source: Hellenic Statistical Authority (EL.STAT.).

25

26

27

28

29

-40

-20

0

20

40

Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14

Change in unemployed (mom, left scale)

Unemployment rate (right scale)

%



April 2015

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect unemployment to average 25.5% in 2015, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel expects the unemployment rate to average 23.9%.



April 2015

Economic Indicators | 2010 - 2019

Annual Data 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Real Sector Population (million) 11.2 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0GDP per capita (EUR) 20,226 18,678 17,459 16,491 16,221 16,163 16,627 17,191 17,875 18,619GDP (EUR bn) 226 208 194 182 179 178 183 189 197 205Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) -4.7 -8.2 -6.5 -6.1 -1.8 -0.5 2.8 3.3 3.9 4.1Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) -5.5 -8.9 -6.6 -3.9 0.8 0.9 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.6Domestic Demand (annual variation in %) -9.1 -10.8 -10.3 -3.9 1.0 1.0 2.1 3.0 3.3 3.2Private Consumption (annual var. in %) -7.1 -10.6 -7.8 -2.0 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.0Government Consumption (ann. var. in %) -4.3 -6.6 -5.0 -6.5 -0.9 - - - - -Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) -11.0 -16.4 -20.8 -16.5 -2.2 1.0 5.4 5.2 5.3 5.3Exports (G&S, annual variation in %) 4.6 0.0 1.2 2.1 9.0 4.8 5.3 5.0 4.7 4.3Imports (G&S, annual variation in %) -5.5 -9.0 -9.1 -1.6 7.4 4.1 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.9Industrial Production (annual variation in %) -5.9 -5.7 -2.0 -3.2 -2.2 -0.1 1.0 1.7 2.0 2.2Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 12.7 17.9 24.6 27.5 26.5 25.5 23.9 20.3 18.1 16.4Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -11.1 -10.1 -8.6 -12.2 -2.6 -1.9 -1.5 -0.5 -0.2 -0.1Public Debt (% of GDP) 146 171 157 175 176 173 168 164 156 149Monetary and Financial Sector Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, eop) 5.2 2.2 0.3 -1.8 -2.5 - - - - -Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, aop) 4.7 3.1 1.0 -0.9 -1.4 -1.3 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.5Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %, aop) 6.7 7.7 4.8 -0.9 -1.2 - - - - -ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 1.00 1.00 0.75 0.25 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.39 0.76 1.543-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) 1.01 1.36 0.19 0.29 0.08 0.03 0.06 0.62 1.00 1.5710-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 12.54 35.49 11.84 8.50 9.60 8.23 7.18 6.53 6.52 6.16Stock Market (var. of ASE in %) -35.6 -51.9 33.4 28.1 -28.9 - - - - -Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.34 1.30 1.32 1.38 1.21 1.04 1.07 1.13 1.17 1.20Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, aop) 1.33 1.39 1.29 1.33 1.33 1.08 1.06 1.10 1.15 1.19External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -10.0 -9.9 -2.4 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.4Current Account Balance (EUR bn) -22.5 -20.6 -4.6 1.1 1.7 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.2 0.8Trade Balance (EUR bn) -29.8 -24.3 -19.8 -16.5 -17.8 - - - - - Quarterly Data Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 2.0 1.2 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.5Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, aop) -0.7 -1.9 -2.0 -1.5 -1.2 -0.7 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.8ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.053-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) 0.08 0.08 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.06Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.26 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.06 1.07 Monthly Data May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 0.0 -5.4 -0.2 -4.9 -4.5 -0.1 3.3 -3.2 0.1 -Markit Manufacturing PMI (50-threshold) 51.0 49.4 48.7 50.1 48.4 48.8 49.1 49.4 48.3 48.4Unemployment (% of active population) 26.8 26.7 26.4 26.2 26.0 25.9 25.9 26.0 - -Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %) -2.1 -1.5 -0.8 -0.2 -1.1 -1.8 -1.2 -2.5 -2.8 -1.9Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.36 1.37 1.34 1.32 1.26 1.25 1.25 1.21 1.13 1.12



April 2015

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product

1 | Real GDP | 2000 - 2019 | var. in %

3 | GDP 2015 | evolution of forecasts

2 | Real GDP | Q1 12-Q4 16 | var. in % Real GDP growth in %

4 | GDP 2016 | evolution of forecasts

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Hellenic Statistical Authority (EL.STAT.) and Eurostat. See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: Eurostat and EL.STAT.2 Quarterly GDP (non seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %. Source: Eurostat and

EL.STAT.3 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 Private consumption, annual variation in %. Source: Eurostat and EL.STAT.6 Private consumption, change in 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.7 Gross fixed capital formation, annual variation in %. Source: Eurostat and EL.STAT.8 Real exports of goods and services, annual variation in %. Source: Eurostat and EL.STAT.

-10

-5

0

5

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

GreeceEuro areaWorld

-10

-5

0

5

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

GreeceEuro areaWorld

0

1

2

3

4

Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb

MaximumConsensusMinimum

-2

0

2

4



6 | Consumption | evolution of fcst

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0


2015 2016

5 | Consumption | variation in %

-15

-10

-5

0

5

2000 2005 2010 2015

GreeceEuro area

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016Citigroup Global Mkts -0.2 1.5Commerzbank 0.2 2.5Credit Suisse 1.8 2.9DekaBank 0.5 2.0Deutsche Bank 0.8 3.2DZ Bank -0.1 1.0EIU 1.5 2.2Eurobank 1.9 2.8Frontier Strategy Group 0.0 1.0ING 1.4 2.3National Bank of Greece 1.3 3.0Nomura 0.4 2.7Oxford Economics 1.3 2.4Piraeus Bank 0.8 -UBS 1.5 2.5Unicredit 0.8 2.5SummaryMinimum -0.2 1.0Maximum 1.9 3.2Median 0.8 2.5Consensus 0.9 2.3History30 days ago 1.6 2.560 days ago 1.9 2.590 days ago 2.0 2.5Additional Forecasts IMF (Oct. 2014) 2.9 3.7European Commission (Feb. 2015) 2.5 3.6

.



April 2015

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016Citigroup Global Mkts 0.5 0.9 8.0 3.9 3.3 4.3 7.4 3.1Commerzbank - - - - - - - -Credit Suisse 1.8 1.9 4.4 6.1 - - - -DekaBank - - - - - - - -Deutsche Bank - - - - - - - -DZ Bank 0.5 0.3 - - 4.0 6.2 7.6 4.6EIU 1.8 1.7 -4.0 3.0 5.1 4.1 3.5 2.7Eurobank 1.5 - 4.0 - 6.0 - 5.0 -Frontier Strategy Group - - - - 2.0 4.5 -1.0 2.0ING - - - - - - - -National Bank of Greece 0.2 1.9 -3.4 9.5 6.9 6.0 2.0 5.9Nomura 1.2 1.7 1.6 3.9 4.8 5.7 5.8 3.3Oxford Economics 1.6 1.3 -5.9 5.0 4.0 4.8 -0.2 3.0Piraeus Bank - - - - - - - -UBS 1.5 2.5 3.4 6.5 7.5 7.0 6.5 7.0Unicredit - - - - - - - -SummaryMinimum 0.2 0.3 -5.9 3.0 2.0 4.1 -1.0 2.0Maximum 1.8 2.5 8.0 9.5 7.5 7.0 7.6 7.0Median 1.5 1.7 2.5 5.0 4.8 5.2 5.0 3.2Consensus 1.2 1.5 1.0 5.4 4.8 5.3 4.1 3.9History30 days ago 1.2 1.5 2.9 5.2 5.2 4.9 2.8 3.460 days ago 1.4 1.6 3.8 6.8 5.4 5.1 3.0 3.590 days ago 1.5 1.8 5.5 7.0 5.6 5.2 3.5 3.9

Consumption Investment Exports Imports variation in % variation in % variation in % variation in %

7 | Investment | variation in %

-30

-15

0

15

30

2000 2005 2010 2015

GreeceEuro area

9 | Imports | variation in %

-20

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

GreeceEuro area

8 | Exports | variation in %

-20

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

GreeceEuro area

10 | Investment | evol. of forecasts

0

2

4

6

8


2015 2016

12 | Imports | evol. of forecasts

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5


2015 2016

11 | Exports | evol. of forecasts

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0


2015 2016



April 2015

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

16 | Public Debt | % of GDP

13 | Unemployment | % of active pop.

15 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst

14 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP

50

100

150

200

2000 2005 2010 2015

GreeceEuro area

5

10

15

20

25

30

2000 2005 2010 2015

GreeceEuro area

-3

-2

-1

0


2015 2016

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

2000 2005 2010 2015

Greece

Euro area

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016Citigroup Global Mkts 26.0 25.4 -1.4 -0.8 178 175Commerzbank - - - - - -Credit Suisse 25.0 22.0 -0.5 -0.3 170 159DekaBank - - - - - -Deutsche Bank 26.2 25.5 -0.7 -0.7 165 158DZ Bank - - -2.0 -0.5 175 175EIU 25.8 24.4 -3.8 -3.7 171 165Eurobank 24.6 22.6 -1.3 - 171 -Frontier Strategy Group 25.0 23.0 - - - -ING - - - - - -National Bank of Greece 25.7 22.8 -3.2 - 173 -Nomura 27.0 26.0 -3.0 -2.6 181 176Oxford Economics 24.6 22.9 -2.2 -1.9 175 171Piraeus Bank 25.5 - - - 177 -UBS 25.4 24.0 -1.0 -1.0 172 164Unicredit - - -1.9 -2.0 175 170SummaryMinimum 24.6 22.0 -3.8 -3.7 165 158Maximum 27.0 26.0 -0.5 -0.3 181 176Median 25.5 23.5 -1.9 -1.0 174 170Consensus 25.5 23.9 -1.9 -1.5 173 168History30 days ago 25.3 23.5 -1.1 -0.4 171 16560 days ago 25.2 23.5 -1.1 -0.3 170 16390 days ago 25.1 23.3 -1.1 -0.3 170 163

% of active pop. % of GDP % of GDPUnemployment Fiscal Balance Public Debt

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Hellenic Statistical Authority (EL.STAT.) and Eurostat. See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.9 Real imports of goods and services, annual variation in %. Source: EL.STAT.10 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.11 Exports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.12 Imports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.13 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: EL.STAT.14 General government fiscal balance as % of GDP. Source: Eurostat. 15 General government fiscal balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.16 Public debt as % of GDP. Source: Eurostat.

Unemployment, Fiscal Balance and Public Debt



April 2015

Monetary and External Sector | Inflation and Current Account Balance

17 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | in %

19 | Inflation 2015 | evolution of fcst

18 | Inflation | Q1 12-Q4 16 | in % Consumer Prices and Current Account Balance

20 | Inflation 2016 | evolution of fcst

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary and external sector data are from the Hellenic Statistical Authority (EL.STAT.) and the Bank of Greece (BoG). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 17 Inflation, annual average variation of harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) in %.

Source: EL.STAT.18 Inflation, annual variation of quarterly average harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP)

in %. Source: EL.STAT.19 Inflation, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.20 Inflation, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.21 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: BoG.22 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last

18 months.

-4

-2

0

2



-2

0

2

4

6

2000 2005 2010 2015

GreeceEuro area

-2

-1

0

1

2

3



-3.0

-1.5

0.0

1.5

3.0

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

GreeceEuro area

22 | Current Account | evol. of fcst

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5


2015 2016

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Citigroup Global Mkts -1.8 0.2 0.6 0.6Commerzbank -1.5 0.0 - -Credit Suisse -2.0 0.7 1.2 1.0DekaBank -1.5 1.0 - -Deutsche Bank -1.6 1.0 1.5 1.2DZ Bank - - - -EIU -1.2 1.0 3.0 2.4Eurobank -0.5 0.6 - -Frontier Strategy Group - - - -ING -1.2 0.4 - -National Bank of Greece -1.2 1.9 1.3 -Nomura -1.8 -1.1 - -Oxford Economics -1.9 -0.4 1.0 1.0Piraeus Bank -1.2 - 1.0 -UBS -0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0Unicredit -0.6 0.3 0.9 1.1SummaryMinimum -2.0 -1.1 0.5 0.0Maximum -0.5 1.9 3.0 2.4Median -1.3 0.5 1.0 1.0Consensus -1.3 0.5 1.2 1.0History30 days ago -1.4 0.5 1.2 1.360 days ago -1.1 0.4 1.3 1.190 days ago -0.6 0.6 1.0 0.9Additional Forecasts IMF (Oct. 2014) -0.8 0.3 - -Euro. Comm. (Feb. 2015) -0.3 0.7 - -

Prices (HICP) Current Acct var. in % % of GDP

21 | Current Account | % of GDP

-15

-10

-5

0

5

2000 2005 2010 2015

GreeceEuro area



April 2015

Fact Sheet

Greece in the Region

Population | %-share in Euro area GDP | %-share in Euro area

Greece1.7%

Germany28.1%

France20.7%Italy

15.6%

Spain10.2%

Other23.7%

Greece3.3%

Germany24.3%

France19.2%

Italy18.0%

Spain14.0%

Other21.1%

Russia12.1%

Other EU-27

28.7%

Germany9.5%

Italy8.3%

Asia ex-Japan10.0%

Other31.5%

Turkey10.9%

Other EU-27

19.1%

Italy7.8%

Germany6.5%

Bulgaria5.8%

Asia ex-Japan5.5%

Other44.3%

Other17.3%

Manufact. Products52.8%

Mineral Fuels29.8%

Other4.9%

Manufact. Products40.0%

Ores & Metals8.4%

Mineral Fuels26.8%

Food19.9%

Trade Structure

Primary markets | share in %

Primary products | share in %

Economic Structure

GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %

Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1202004-06 2007-09 2010-12

Net Exports

Investment

GovernmentConsumption

PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002004-06 2007-09 2010-12

Agriculture

Industry

Services

General Data

Economic Infrastructure

Political Data

Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings

Strengths Weaknesses

• Leading ship owner • Large public debt• Tourist potential • High structural unemployment

• High levels of household debt• Widespread tax evasion

• Ongoing external rebalancing process

Energy (2012)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 408Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 1,225Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 57.6Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 57.7Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 7.5Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 306CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 87.6

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: Caa1 RURS&P: B- NegativeFitch Ratings: B Negative

Telecommunication (2013) Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 47.9Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 117Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 59.9Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 26.2

Transportation (2013) Airports: 77Railways (km): 2,548Roadways (km): 116,960Waterways (km): 6Chief Ports: Piraeus, Thessaloniki

Official name: Hellenic RepublicCapital: Athens (4.1m)Other cities: Thessaloniki (1.2m)Area (km2): 131,957Population (million, 2014 est.): 11.0Population density (per km2, 2014): 83.7Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 0.0Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 80.3Illiteracy rate (%, 2011): 3.7Language: GreekMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT+2

Prime Minister: Alexis TsiprasLast elections: 25 January 2015Next elections: 24 February 2019Central Bank Governor: Yannis Stournaras

FOCUSECONOMICS


April 2015

Economic Release Calendar

Date Country Event31 March Euro area February Unemployment31 March Euro area March Consumer Prices (*)31 March Ireland Q4 2014 National Accounts31 March Italy March Consumer Prices (*)31 March Spain January Balance of Payments 31 March Spain February Retail Sales1 April Greece April Markit Manufacturing PMI (*)1 April Ireland March Investec Manufacturing PMI1 April Italy March Markit/ADACI Manufacturing PMI1 April Netherlands March NEVI Manufacturing PMI1 April Spain March Markit Manufacturing PMI3 April Ireland March Investec Services PMI7 April Cyprus March Consumer Prices7 April Spain March Markit Services PMI8 April Ireland March Consumer Confidence (**)9 April Germany February Industrial Production9 April Germany February Merchandise Trade9 April Greece February Industrial Production10 April Finland February Industrial Production10 April France February Industrial Production10 April Ireland February Industrial Production (**)10 April Spain February Industrial Production13 April Italy February Industrial Production14 April Euro area February Industrial Production14 April Italy March Consumer Prices 14 April Spain March Consumer Prices15 April Euro area Central Bank Meeting15 April Finland February Balance of Payments15 April Finland February Trend Indicator of Output15 April France March Consumer Prices17 April Euro area March Consumer Prices17 April Austria March Consumer Prices20 April Cyprus January Industrial Production20 April Portugal April Leading Indicators20 April Portugal March Industrial Production22 April Netherlands April Consumer Confidence23 April Euro area April Markit Composite PMI (*)23 April France April Markit Composite PMI (*)23 April France April Business Confidence23 April Germany April Markit Composite PMI (*)23 April Germany May Consumer Confidence24 April Austria February Industrial Production24 April Belgium April Leading Indicators (*)24 April Belgium February Industrial Production24 April Germany April Business Confidence24 April Netherlands April Business Confidence

(*) Preliminary estimate. (**) Approximate date.

Calendar

FOCUSECONOMICS


April 2015

Economic Release Calendar

(*) Preliminary estimate. (**) Approximate date.

Date Country Event28 April France April Consumer Confidence29 April Euro area April Economic Sentiment29 April Austria April Consumer Confidence29 April Austria March Unemployment29 April Austria April Bank Austria Manufacturing PMI29 April Belgium April Consumer Prices29 April Belgium Q4 2014 National Accounts29 April Germany April Consumer Prices (*)29 April Italy April Consumer Confidence29 April Italy April Business Confidence29 April Spain March Retail Sales30 April Euro area March Unemployment30 April Euro area April Consumer Prices (*)30 April Austria Q1 2015 National Accounts (*)30 April Italy April Consumer Prices (*)30 April Spain February Balance of Payments 30 April Spain February Housing Permits30 April Spain Q1 2015 National Accounts (*)1 May Greece May Markit Manufacturing PMI (*)1 May Ireland April Investec Manufacturing PMI1 May Italy April Markit/ADACI Manufacturing PMI1 May Netherlands April NEVI Manufacturing PMI4 May Spain April Markit Manufacturing PMI

FOCUSECONOMICS


April 2015

Notes and Statements

PUBLICATION NOTE

Consensus forecasts are mean averages of projections of economic forecasters surveyed by FocusEconomics for our monthly publication. Quarterly averages may not correspond to the annual figures due to different forecast panels.

The GDP-weighted averages for the world refer to economies surveyed by FocusEconomics on a monthly basis, and include the following countries and regions, comprising more than 90% of total global output:

G7 (Group of Seven, 7 countries): Canada, Japan, United Kingdom and United States; France, Germany and Italy are also Euro area countries.Euro area (18 countries): Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain.Nordic Economies (5 countries): Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Iceland. Finland is also a Euro area member.Eastern Europe (14 countries): Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine; Estonia, Latvia, Slovakia and Slovenia are also Euro area members.MENA (Middle East and North Africa, 16 countries): Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates and Yemen.Asia-Pacific (17 countries): Australia, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam.Latin America (23 countries): Argentina, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Puero Rico, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay and Venezuela.Additional Countries: Switzerland and South Africa.

Weights are based on market exchange rates and reflect the latest forecasts on GDP growth, inflation and exchange rates.

BRIC (4 countries): Brazil, Russia, India, and China. The term was coined by Goldman Sachs in November 2001 and has since been widely adopted in investment and finance.

COPYRIGHT NOTE

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The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast – Euro Area is a monthly publication of FocusEconomics. Communications to the Editor or FocusEconomics in general should be addressed as follows:

FocusEconomics S.L.Gran Via 657E-08010 BarcelonaSpaintel: +34 932 651 040fax: +34 932 650 804e-mail: [email protected] web: http://www.focus-economics.com

DISCLOSURE STATEMENT

The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast – Euro Area (“Forecast”) is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable. FocusEconomics and the participating panelists (“Information Providers”) do not guarantee that the information supplied in the Forecast is accurate, complete or timely. The Information Providers do not make any warranties with regard to the results obtained from the Forecast. The Information Providers are not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for any injuries or damages resulting from the use of this information, including incidental and consequential damages. Recipients should not regard the Forecast as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgement. The recommendations made in the Forecast may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. The Forecast has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation of any transaction or an offer to enter into any transaction. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice and the Information Providers are under no obligation to update the information contained herein.

Notes

ASIA PACIFIC |

CENTRAL AMERICA |& CARIBBEAN |

EASTERN EUROPE|

EURO AREA |

LATIN AMERICA|

MAJOR ECONOMIES |

MIDDLE EAST| & NORTH AFRICA|

NORDIC ECONOMIES|

Brunei, China, Cambodia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam, Australia & New Zealand

Belize, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico and Trinidad & Tobago

Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey & Ukraine

Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia & Spain

Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay & Venezuela

G7 countries (United States, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, France, Eurozone, Germany & Italy); BRIC overview (Brazil, Russia, India & China); Switzerland

Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, Yemen; South Africa

Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast reports cover economic forecasts for over 1,600 unique indicators in 95 countries. Every monthly report includes the Consensus Forecast for each indicator covered. The Consensus Forecast, based on an average of the forecasts provided by the most reputable economic research authorities in the world, is the one number you can rely on to make important business decisions.

REGIONS & COUNTRIES COVERED

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