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FocusEconomics 2010ISSN 2013-4940

E c o n o m i c F or e c a s t s f r o m t h e Wo r l d s Le a d i n g E c o n o m i s t s

CONSENSUS FORECAST

FOCUSECONOMICSFOCUSECONOMICSFOCUSECONOMICSFOCUSECONOMICSFOCUSECONOMICS

AsiaAsiaAsiaAsiaAsiaContentsContentsContentsContentsContents

Summary .................................... 3

Calendar .................................. 1 4

China ........................................ 1 5

Hong Kong ............................... 2 6

India.......................................... 3 5

Indonesia ................................. 4 4

Korea ........................................ 5 3

Malaysia .................................. 6 3

Philippines............................... 7 2

Singapore ................................ 8 1

Taiwan ..................................... 9 0

Thailand ................................... 9 9

Vietnam ................................. 109

Notes .......................................112

Order Form .............................113

Arne PohlmanChief Economist

ngel TalaveraSenior Economist

Keith CatlinSenior Economist

Armando CiccarelliSenior Economist

Gerardo MornSenior Economist

Ricardo AcevesEconomist

Marcos Felipe CasarinEconomist

Joan Enric DomeneEconomist

November 2010

Publication date: 26 October 2010

Information available:up to and including 25 Oct. 2010

Forecasts collected: 19 - 22 October 2010

Next edition: 23 November 2010

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Summary November 2010FOCUSECONOMICS

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 2

Gross Domestic Product, annual variation in % Consumer Prices, annual average variation in %

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011World 4.0 1.8 -1.9 3.8 3.4 3.2 4.6 0.9 2.6 2.6

United States 1.9 0.0 -2.6 2.7 2.4 2.9 3.8 -0.4 1.6 1.4

Euro area 2.8 0.6 -4.1 1.5 1.4 2.1 3.3 0.3 1.5 1.6

Asia 7.0 4.0 2.1 6.6 5.9 2.6 4.5 0.0 2.3 2.5Japan 2.4 -1.2 -5.2 2.9 1.4 0.1 1.4 -1.4 -0.9 -0.3

Asia (ex Japan) 9.7 7.0 6.1 8.8 7.6 4.1 6.2 0.8 3.9 3.6China 13.0 9.6 9.1 9.9 8.9 4.8 5.9 -0.7 3.1 3.0

India 9.2 6.7 7.4 8.3 8.4 4.7 7.3 3.5 7.9 5.5

Asean 6.6 4.3 1.4 7.5 5.5 3.9 8.6 2.7 4.2 4.5Indonesia 6.3 6.0 4.5 6.0 6.2 6.0 9.8 5.0 5.2 6.1

Malaysia 6.3 4.6 -1.7 7.1 5.2 2.0 5.4 0.6 1.9 2.6

Philippines 7.1 3.7 1.1 6.6 5.1 2.8 9.3 3.2 3.9 4.0

Thailand 4.9 2.5 -2.2 7.4 4.4 2.2 5.4 -0.9 3.3 3.1

Vietnam 8.5 6.2 5.3 6.6 6.9 8.3 23.0 6.9 9.1 8.2

NIEs 5.8 1.9 -0.9 7.4 4.3 2.3 4.6 1.4 2.4 2.6Hong Kong 6.4 2.2 -2.8 5.9 4.5 2.0 4.3 0.5 2.7 3.0

Korea 5.1 2.3 0.2 6.0 4.2 2.5 4.7 2.8 2.9 3.0

Singapore 8.5 1.8 -1.3 13.7 4.9 2.1 6.5 0.6 2.8 2.5

Taiwan 6.0 0.7 -1.9 8.3 4.2 1.8 3.5 -0.9 1.2 1.5

Real GDP, annual variation in % Consumer Prices, variation in %

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011World -0.7 -2.3 -6.9 -6.4 -5.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

United States -1.1 -3.2 -10.0 -9.3 -7.9 -5.1 -4.7 -2.7 -3.3 -3.5

Euro area -0.6 -2.0 -6.3 -6.4 -5.3 0.1 -1.7 -0.8 -0.4 -0.1

Asia -0.5 -2.7 -5.4 -4.9 -4.2 6.2 5.0 4.2 3.6 3.3Japan -2.5 -5.8 -9.8 -9.1 -8.5 4.8 3.2 2.8 3.5 3.6

Asia (ex Japan) 0.6 -1.0 -3.0 -2.9 -2.2 7.0 5.9 5.0 3.7 3.1China 0.7 -0.4 -2.2 -2.6 -1.9 11.0 9.4 6.0 4.8 4.1

India -2.6 -6.0 -6.6 -5.6 -5.1 -1.4 -2.5 -3.3 -2.8 -2.5

Asean 0.3 -0.4 -3.3 -2.8 -2.2 8.3 4.9 6.9 5.3 4.5Indonesia -1.2 0.0 -1.6 -1.6 -1.3 2.6 0.0 2.0 1.1 0.7

Malaysia -3.2 -4.8 -7.0 -5.4 -4.6 15.7 17.5 16.7 13.5 12.1

Philippines -0.2 -0.9 -3.9 -3.9 -3.2 4.4 2.2 5.3 4.5 4.0

Thailand -1.7 -1.1 -4.4 -3.0 -2.9 6.4 0.6 7.7 3.6 2.7

Vietnam -1.8 -2.1 -4.5 -6.2 -4.9 -9.8 -11.8 -7.7 -8.3 -7.1

NIEs 3.9 1.1 -1.9 -1.1 -0.4 6.2 5.1 8.6 6.2 5.2Hong Kong 7.7 0.1 0.8 -0.6 -0.2 12.3 13.6 8.7 8.4 8.3

Korea 3.5 1.2 -1.7 -0.6 0.0 0.6 -0.6 5.1 2.3 1.4

Singapore 12.1 5.7 -2.0 -0.6 0.8 27.6 19.2 19.1 17.5 15.8

Taiwan -0.4 -0.9 -4.0 -2.8 -2.3 8.8 7.2 11.1 8.5 7.0

Current Account, % of GDPFiscal Balance, % of GDP

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

World United

States

Euro area Japan Asia (ex

Japan)

China India

2008 2009 2010 2011

-4

0

4

8

12

World United

States

Euro area Japan Asia (ex

Japan)

China India

2008 2009 2010 2011

Forecast Summary | Major Economies and Asia

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Summary November 2010FOCUSECONOMICS

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Summary

Keith Catlin

Senior Economist

LONG-TERM TRENDS | 5-year averages

Recent data from the third quarter confirm the notion that growth in

most Asian economies has begun to slow, as the favourable base

effect fades away.

Consensus Forecast panellists have raised their estimate for ex-Japan

Asian growth this year by 0.1 percentage points for the second

consecutive month to the current 8.8% forecast. In 2011, panellists

see the regional economy growing 7.6%.

Despite persistent upward price pressures, Consensus Forecast

panellists have left their inflation estimates unchanged at last months

3.9% estimate. In 2011, regional inflation will moderate to an average

of 3.6%.Note: Data refer to GDP-weighted Asian (ex Japan) average based onmarket exchange rates. For details see note at end of publication.

2000-04 2005-015 2010-14

GDP growth (%) 6.8 7.9 7.8Inflation (%) 2.3 3.4 3.5

Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -2.2 -1.0 -1.6

Current Account (% of GDP) 3.3 5.7 2.9

-0.3 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2

China

Indonesia

Malaysia

Asia (ex Japan)

India

Vietnam

Korea

Hong Kong

Asean

NIEs

Thailand

Singapore

Philippines

Taiwan

Regional outlook improves

Forecast Changes over last Month

Change in 2010 GDP Growth Forecast

Note: Change between November and October 2010 in percentage points.Source: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

Change in 2010 Inflation Forecast

Note: Change between November and October2010 in percentage points.Source: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5

Vietnam

Philippines

India

Taiwan

Malaysia

Asia (ex Japan)

China

Hong Kong

Thailand

NIEs

Korea

Asean

Singapore

Indonesia

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Summary November 2010FOCUSECONOMICS

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Panellists raised their 2010 growth forecasts for most of the smaller counties while

leaving the forecasts for the major economies unchanged.GDP 8.8 7.6 =

Despite upward price pressures in the two largest economies in the region, China

and India, panellists left their forecasts for both countries unchanged over last

month's estimates for this year and next.

Inflation 3.9 = 3.6 =

On 18 October, state media reported that Vice-President Xi Jinping was selected

vice-president of the Central Military Commission, thus cementing his position as

Hu Jintaos likely successor, once Hu steps down from the presidency in 2013.

Economic growth slowed in the third quarter to 9.6% year-on-year, as a result of a

higher base effect as well as concerted government policies aimed at slowing

growth.

GDP 9.9 = 8.9 =

Inflation rose from 3.5% in August to 3.6% in September. Inflation 3.1 = 3.0

Robust domestic demand due to improving labour market conditions continues to

fuel economic growth. Recent data from the retail sector corroborate this notion, as

retail sales rose a strong 14.7% over the same month last year.

GDP 5.9 4.5 =

Inflation dropped from 3.0% in August to 2.6% in September. Inflation 2.7 = 3.0

The end of a good monsoon season augurs for a generous autumn harvest this

year, with government estimates projecting it to be approximately 10% larger than

the previous year. The good harvest bodes well for GDP growth, as agriculture is

an important sector.

GDP 8.3 = 8.4 =

Wholesale price inflation accelerated a notch to 8.6% in September, thus ending

the downward trend in place since May.Inflation 8.1 5.5 =

Recent data are showing mixed signals but, on balance, continue to point towards

sustained growth in domestic demand in the third quarter. Moreover, the robust

domestic sector along with a low dependence on external demand would shield

the country in the event of a global economic deceleration.

GDP 6.0 = 6.2

Inflation fell to 5.8% in September, easing for the first time in six months. Inflation 5.1 6.1

Economic growth is likely to have moderated in the third quarter amid slowing

industrial activity. Moreover, consumer confidence continues to slide, suggesting

weaker private consumption in the months ahead.

GDP 6.0 = 4.2 =

Inflation jumped from 2.6% in August to 3.6% in September. Nevertheless,

monetary authorities halted the tightening cycle and left rates unchanged at

2.25%, surprising market analysts who had expected the Bank to raise rates.

Inflation 2.8 3.0