FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia - November 2010

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Transcript of FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia - November 2010

  • 8/7/2019 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia - November 2010

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    Gran Via 657 E-08010 Barcelona, SpainPhone: +34 932 651 040

    Fax: +34 932 650 804

    info@focus-economics.comwww.focus-economics.com

    FocusEconomics 2010ISSN 2013-4940

    E c o n o m i c F or e c a s t s f r o m t h e Wo r l d s Le a d i n g E c o n o m i s t s

    CONSENSUS FORECAST

    FOCUSECONOMICSFOCUSECONOMICSFOCUSECONOMICSFOCUSECONOMICSFOCUSECONOMICS

    AsiaAsiaAsiaAsiaAsiaContentsContentsContentsContentsContents

    Summary .................................... 3

    Calendar .................................. 1 4

    China ........................................ 1 5

    Hong Kong ............................... 2 6

    India.......................................... 3 5

    Indonesia ................................. 4 4

    Korea ........................................ 5 3

    Malaysia .................................. 6 3

    Philippines............................... 7 2

    Singapore ................................ 8 1

    Taiwan ..................................... 9 0

    Thailand ................................... 9 9

    Vietnam ................................. 109

    Notes .......................................112

    Order Form .............................113

    Arne PohlmanChief Economist

    ngel TalaveraSenior Economist

    Keith CatlinSenior Economist

    Armando CiccarelliSenior Economist

    Gerardo MornSenior Economist

    Ricardo AcevesEconomist

    Marcos Felipe CasarinEconomist

    Joan Enric DomeneEconomist

    November 2010

    Publication date: 26 October 2010

    Information available:up to and including 25 Oct. 2010

    Forecasts collected: 19 - 22 October 2010

    Next edition: 23 November 2010

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    Summary November 2010FOCUSECONOMICS

    FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 2

    Gross Domestic Product, annual variation in % Consumer Prices, annual average variation in %

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011World 4.0 1.8 -1.9 3.8 3.4 3.2 4.6 0.9 2.6 2.6

    United States 1.9 0.0 -2.6 2.7 2.4 2.9 3.8 -0.4 1.6 1.4

    Euro area 2.8 0.6 -4.1 1.5 1.4 2.1 3.3 0.3 1.5 1.6

    Asia 7.0 4.0 2.1 6.6 5.9 2.6 4.5 0.0 2.3 2.5Japan 2.4 -1.2 -5.2 2.9 1.4 0.1 1.4 -1.4 -0.9 -0.3

    Asia (ex Japan) 9.7 7.0 6.1 8.8 7.6 4.1 6.2 0.8 3.9 3.6China 13.0 9.6 9.1 9.9 8.9 4.8 5.9 -0.7 3.1 3.0

    India 9.2 6.7 7.4 8.3 8.4 4.7 7.3 3.5 7.9 5.5

    Asean 6.6 4.3 1.4 7.5 5.5 3.9 8.6 2.7 4.2 4.5Indonesia 6.3 6.0 4.5 6.0 6.2 6.0 9.8 5.0 5.2 6.1

    Malaysia 6.3 4.6 -1.7 7.1 5.2 2.0 5.4 0.6 1.9 2.6

    Philippines 7.1 3.7 1.1 6.6 5.1 2.8 9.3 3.2 3.9 4.0

    Thailand 4.9 2.5 -2.2 7.4 4.4 2.2 5.4 -0.9 3.3 3.1

    Vietnam 8.5 6.2 5.3 6.6 6.9 8.3 23.0 6.9 9.1 8.2

    NIEs 5.8 1.9 -0.9 7.4 4.3 2.3 4.6 1.4 2.4 2.6Hong Kong 6.4 2.2 -2.8 5.9 4.5 2.0 4.3 0.5 2.7 3.0

    Korea 5.1 2.3 0.2 6.0 4.2 2.5 4.7 2.8 2.9 3.0

    Singapore 8.5 1.8 -1.3 13.7 4.9 2.1 6.5 0.6 2.8 2.5

    Taiwan 6.0 0.7 -1.9 8.3 4.2 1.8 3.5 -0.9 1.2 1.5

    Real GDP, annual variation in % Consumer Prices, variation in %

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011World -0.7 -2.3 -6.9 -6.4 -5.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

    United States -1.1 -3.2 -10.0 -9.3 -7.9 -5.1 -4.7 -2.7 -3.3 -3.5

    Euro area -0.6 -2.0 -6.3 -6.4 -5.3 0.1 -1.7 -0.8 -0.4 -0.1

    Asia -0.5 -2.7 -5.4 -4.9 -4.2 6.2 5.0 4.2 3.6 3.3Japan -2.5 -5.8 -9.8 -9.1 -8.5 4.8 3.2 2.8 3.5 3.6

    Asia (ex Japan) 0.6 -1.0 -3.0 -2.9 -2.2 7.0 5.9 5.0 3.7 3.1China 0.7 -0.4 -2.2 -2.6 -1.9 11.0 9.4 6.0 4.8 4.1

    India -2.6 -6.0 -6.6 -5.6 -5.1 -1.4 -2.5 -3.3 -2.8 -2.5

    Asean 0.3 -0.4 -3.3 -2.8 -2.2 8.3 4.9 6.9 5.3 4.5Indonesia -1.2 0.0 -1.6 -1.6 -1.3 2.6 0.0 2.0 1.1 0.7

    Malaysia -3.2 -4.8 -7.0 -5.4 -4.6 15.7 17.5 16.7 13.5 12.1

    Philippines -0.2 -0.9 -3.9 -3.9 -3.2 4.4 2.2 5.3 4.5 4.0

    Thailand -1.7 -1.1 -4.4 -3.0 -2.9 6.4 0.6 7.7 3.6 2.7

    Vietnam -1.8 -2.1 -4.5 -6.2 -4.9 -9.8 -11.8 -7.7 -8.3 -7.1

    NIEs 3.9 1.1 -1.9 -1.1 -0.4 6.2 5.1 8.6 6.2 5.2Hong Kong 7.7 0.1 0.8 -0.6 -0.2 12.3 13.6 8.7 8.4 8.3

    Korea 3.5 1.2 -1.7 -0.6 0.0 0.6 -0.6 5.1 2.3 1.4

    Singapore 12.1 5.7 -2.0 -0.6 0.8 27.6 19.2 19.1 17.5 15.8

    Taiwan -0.4 -0.9 -4.0 -2.8 -2.3 8.8 7.2 11.1 8.5 7.0

    Current Account, % of GDPFiscal Balance, % of GDP

    -8

    -4

    0

    4

    8

    12

    World United

    States

    Euro area Japan Asia (ex

    Japan)

    China India

    2008 2009 2010 2011

    -4

    0

    4

    8

    12

    World United

    States

    Euro area Japan Asia (ex

    Japan)

    China India

    2008 2009 2010 2011

    Forecast Summary | Major Economies and Asia

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    Summary November 2010FOCUSECONOMICS

    FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 3

    Summary

    Keith Catlin

    Senior Economist

    LONG-TERM TRENDS | 5-year averages

    Recent data from the third quarter confirm the notion that growth in

    most Asian economies has begun to slow, as the favourable base

    effect fades away.

    Consensus Forecast panellists have raised their estimate for ex-Japan

    Asian growth this year by 0.1 percentage points for the second

    consecutive month to the current 8.8% forecast. In 2011, panellists

    see the regional economy growing 7.6%.

    Despite persistent upward price pressures, Consensus Forecast

    panellists have left their inflation estimates unchanged at last months

    3.9% estimate. In 2011, regional inflation will moderate to an average

    of 3.6%.Note: Data refer to GDP-weighted Asian (ex Japan) average based onmarket exchange rates. For details see note at end of publication.

    2000-04 2005-015 2010-14

    GDP growth (%) 6.8 7.9 7.8Inflation (%) 2.3 3.4 3.5

    Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -2.2 -1.0 -1.6

    Current Account (% of GDP) 3.3 5.7 2.9

    -0.3 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2

    China

    Indonesia

    Malaysia

    Asia (ex Japan)

    India

    Vietnam

    Korea

    Hong Kong

    Asean

    NIEs

    Thailand

    Singapore

    Philippines

    Taiwan

    Regional outlook improves

    Forecast Changes over last Month

    Change in 2010 GDP Growth Forecast

    Note: Change between November and October 2010 in percentage points.Source: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

    Change in 2010 Inflation Forecast

    Note: Change between November and October2010 in percentage points.Source: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

    -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5

    Vietnam

    Philippines

    India

    Taiwan

    Malaysia

    Asia (ex Japan)

    China

    Hong Kong

    Thailand

    NIEs

    Korea

    Asean

    Singapore

    Indonesia

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    Summary November 2010FOCUSECONOMICS

    FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 4

    Panellists raised their 2010 growth forecasts for most of the smaller counties while

    leaving the forecasts for the major economies unchanged.GDP 8.8 7.6 =

    Despite upward price pressures in the two largest economies in the region, China

    and India, panellists left their forecasts for both countries unchanged over last

    month's estimates for this year and next.

    Inflation 3.9 = 3.6 =

    On 18 October, state media reported that Vice-President Xi Jinping was selected

    vice-president of the Central Military Commission, thus cementing his position as

    Hu Jintaos likely successor, once Hu steps down from the presidency in 2013.

    Economic growth slowed in the third quarter to 9.6% year-on-year, as a result of a

    higher base effect as well as concerted government policies aimed at slowing

    growth.

    GDP 9.9 = 8.9 =

    Inflation rose from 3.5% in August to 3.6% in September. Inflation 3.1 = 3.0

    Robust domestic demand due to improving labour market conditions continues to

    fuel economic growth. Recent data from the retail sector corroborate this notion, as

    retail sales rose a strong 14.7% over the same month last year.

    GDP 5.9 4.5 =

    Inflation dropped from 3.0% in August to 2.6% in September. Inflation 2.7 = 3.0

    The end of a good monsoon season augurs for a generous autumn harvest this

    year, with government estimates projecting it to be approximately 10% larger than

    the previous year. The good harvest bodes well for GDP growth, as agriculture is

    an important sector.

    GDP 8.3 = 8.4 =

    Wholesale price inflation accelerated a notch to 8.6% in September, thus ending

    the downward trend in place since May.Inflation 8.1 5.5 =

    Recent data are showing mixed signals but, on balance, continue to point towards

    sustained growth in domestic demand in the third quarter. Moreover, the robust

    domestic sector along with a low dependence on external demand would shield

    the country in the event of a global economic deceleration.

    GDP 6.0 = 6.2

    Inflation fell to 5.8% in September, easing for the first time in six months. Inflation 5.1 6.1

    Economic growth is likely to have moderated in the third quarter amid slowing

    industrial activity. Moreover, consumer confidence continues to slide, suggesting

    weaker private consumption in the months ahead.

    GDP 6.0 = 4.2 =

    Inflation jumped from 2.6% in August to 3.6% in September. Nevertheless,

    monetary authorities halted the tightening cycle and left rates unchanged at

    2.25%, surprising market analysts who had expected the Bank to raise rates.

    Inflation 2.8 3.0