FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia - November 2010

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    Gran Via 657 E-08010 Barcelona, SpainPhone: +34 932 651 040

    Fax: +34 932 650 804

    [email protected]

    FocusEconomics 2010ISSN 2013-4940

    E c o n o m i c F or e c a s t s f r o m t h e Wo r l d s Le a d i n g E c o n o m i s t s

    CONSENSUS FORECAST

    FOCUSECONOMICSFOCUSECONOMICSFOCUSECONOMICSFOCUSECONOMICSFOCUSECONOMICS

    AsiaAsiaAsiaAsiaAsiaContentsContentsContentsContentsContents

    Summary .................................... 3

    Calendar .................................. 1 4

    China ........................................ 1 5

    Hong Kong ............................... 2 6

    India.......................................... 3 5

    Indonesia ................................. 4 4

    Korea ........................................ 5 3

    Malaysia .................................. 6 3

    Philippines............................... 7 2

    Singapore ................................ 8 1

    Taiwan ..................................... 9 0

    Thailand ................................... 9 9

    Vietnam ................................. 109

    Notes .......................................112

    Order Form .............................113

    Arne PohlmanChief Economist

    ngel TalaveraSenior Economist

    Keith CatlinSenior Economist

    Armando CiccarelliSenior Economist

    Gerardo MornSenior Economist

    Ricardo AcevesEconomist

    Marcos Felipe CasarinEconomist

    Joan Enric DomeneEconomist

    November 2010

    Publication date: 26 October 2010

    Information available:up to and including 25 Oct. 2010

    Forecasts collected: 19 - 22 October 2010

    Next edition: 23 November 2010

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    Summary November 2010FOCUSECONOMICS

    FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 2

    Gross Domestic Product, annual variation in % Consumer Prices, annual average variation in %

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011World 4.0 1.8 -1.9 3.8 3.4 3.2 4.6 0.9 2.6 2.6

    United States 1.9 0.0 -2.6 2.7 2.4 2.9 3.8 -0.4 1.6 1.4

    Euro area 2.8 0.6 -4.1 1.5 1.4 2.1 3.3 0.3 1.5 1.6

    Asia 7.0 4.0 2.1 6.6 5.9 2.6 4.5 0.0 2.3 2.5Japan 2.4 -1.2 -5.2 2.9 1.4 0.1 1.4 -1.4 -0.9 -0.3

    Asia (ex Japan) 9.7 7.0 6.1 8.8 7.6 4.1 6.2 0.8 3.9 3.6China 13.0 9.6 9.1 9.9 8.9 4.8 5.9 -0.7 3.1 3.0

    India 9.2 6.7 7.4 8.3 8.4 4.7 7.3 3.5 7.9 5.5

    Asean 6.6 4.3 1.4 7.5 5.5 3.9 8.6 2.7 4.2 4.5Indonesia 6.3 6.0 4.5 6.0 6.2 6.0 9.8 5.0 5.2 6.1

    Malaysia 6.3 4.6 -1.7 7.1 5.2 2.0 5.4 0.6 1.9 2.6

    Philippines 7.1 3.7 1.1 6.6 5.1 2.8 9.3 3.2 3.9 4.0

    Thailand 4.9 2.5 -2.2 7.4 4.4 2.2 5.4 -0.9 3.3 3.1

    Vietnam 8.5 6.2 5.3 6.6 6.9 8.3 23.0 6.9 9.1 8.2

    NIEs 5.8 1.9 -0.9 7.4 4.3 2.3 4.6 1.4 2.4 2.6Hong Kong 6.4 2.2 -2.8 5.9 4.5 2.0 4.3 0.5 2.7 3.0

    Korea 5.1 2.3 0.2 6.0 4.2 2.5 4.7 2.8 2.9 3.0

    Singapore 8.5 1.8 -1.3 13.7 4.9 2.1 6.5 0.6 2.8 2.5

    Taiwan 6.0 0.7 -1.9 8.3 4.2 1.8 3.5 -0.9 1.2 1.5

    Real GDP, annual variation in % Consumer Prices, variation in %

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011World -0.7 -2.3 -6.9 -6.4 -5.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

    United States -1.1 -3.2 -10.0 -9.3 -7.9 -5.1 -4.7 -2.7 -3.3 -3.5

    Euro area -0.6 -2.0 -6.3 -6.4 -5.3 0.1 -1.7 -0.8 -0.4 -0.1

    Asia -0.5 -2.7 -5.4 -4.9 -4.2 6.2 5.0 4.2 3.6 3.3Japan -2.5 -5.8 -9.8 -9.1 -8.5 4.8 3.2 2.8 3.5 3.6

    Asia (ex Japan) 0.6 -1.0 -3.0 -2.9 -2.2 7.0 5.9 5.0 3.7 3.1China 0.7 -0.4 -2.2 -2.6 -1.9 11.0 9.4 6.0 4.8 4.1

    India -2.6 -6.0 -6.6 -5.6 -5.1 -1.4 -2.5 -3.3 -2.8 -2.5

    Asean 0.3 -0.4 -3.3 -2.8 -2.2 8.3 4.9 6.9 5.3 4.5Indonesia -1.2 0.0 -1.6 -1.6 -1.3 2.6 0.0 2.0 1.1 0.7

    Malaysia -3.2 -4.8 -7.0 -5.4 -4.6 15.7 17.5 16.7 13.5 12.1

    Philippines -0.2 -0.9 -3.9 -3.9 -3.2 4.4 2.2 5.3 4.5 4.0

    Thailand -1.7 -1.1 -4.4 -3.0 -2.9 6.4 0.6 7.7 3.6 2.7

    Vietnam -1.8 -2.1 -4.5 -6.2 -4.9 -9.8 -11.8 -7.7 -8.3 -7.1

    NIEs 3.9 1.1 -1.9 -1.1 -0.4 6.2 5.1 8.6 6.2 5.2Hong Kong 7.7 0.1 0.8 -0.6 -0.2 12.3 13.6 8.7 8.4 8.3

    Korea 3.5 1.2 -1.7 -0.6 0.0 0.6 -0.6 5.1 2.3 1.4

    Singapore 12.1 5.7 -2.0 -0.6 0.8 27.6 19.2 19.1 17.5 15.8

    Taiwan -0.4 -0.9 -4.0 -2.8 -2.3 8.8 7.2 11.1 8.5 7.0

    Current Account, % of GDPFiscal Balance, % of GDP

    -8

    -4

    0

    4

    8

    12

    World United

    States

    Euro area Japan Asia (ex

    Japan)

    China India

    2008 2009 2010 2011

    -4

    0

    4

    8

    12

    World United

    States

    Euro area Japan Asia (ex

    Japan)

    China India

    2008 2009 2010 2011

    Forecast Summary | Major Economies and Asia

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    Summary November 2010FOCUSECONOMICS

    FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 3

    Summary

    Keith Catlin

    Senior Economist

    LONG-TERM TRENDS | 5-year averages

    Recent data from the third quarter confirm the notion that growth in

    most Asian economies has begun to slow, as the favourable base

    effect fades away.

    Consensus Forecast panellists have raised their estimate for ex-Japan

    Asian growth this year by 0.1 percentage points for the second

    consecutive month to the current 8.8% forecast. In 2011, panellists

    see the regional economy growing 7.6%.

    Despite persistent upward price pressures, Consensus Forecast

    panellists have left their inflation estimates unchanged at last months

    3.9% estimate. In 2011, regional inflation will moderate to an average

    of 3.6%.Note: Data refer to GDP-weighted Asian (ex Japan) average based onmarket exchange rates. For details see note at end of publication.

    2000-04 2005-015 2010-14

    GDP growth (%) 6.8 7.9 7.8Inflation (%) 2.3 3.4 3.5

    Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -2.2 -1.0 -1.6

    Current Account (% of GDP) 3.3 5.7 2.9

    -0.3 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2

    China

    Indonesia

    Malaysia

    Asia (ex Japan)

    India

    Vietnam

    Korea

    Hong Kong

    Asean

    NIEs

    Thailand

    Singapore

    Philippines

    Taiwan

    Regional outlook improves

    Forecast Changes over last Month

    Change in 2010 GDP Growth Forecast

    Note: Change between November and October 2010 in percentage points.Source: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

    Change in 2010 Inflation Forecast

    Note: Change between November and October2010 in percentage points.Source: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

    -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5

    Vietnam

    Philippines

    India

    Taiwan

    Malaysia

    Asia (ex Japan)

    China

    Hong Kong

    Thailand

    NIEs

    Korea

    Asean

    Singapore

    Indonesia

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    Summary November 2010FOCUSECONOMICS

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    Panellists raised their 2010 growth forecasts for most of the smaller counties while

    leaving the forecasts for the major economies unchanged.GDP 8.8 7.6 =

    Despite upward price pressures in the two largest economies in the region, China

    and India, panellists left their forecasts for both countries unchanged over last

    month's estimates for this year and next.

    Inflation 3.9 = 3.6 =

    On 18 October, state media reported that Vice-President Xi Jinping was selected

    vice-president of the Central Military Commission, thus cementing his position as

    Hu Jintaos likely successor, once Hu steps down from the presidency in 2013.

    Economic growth slowed in the third quarter to 9.6% year-on-year, as a result of a

    higher base effect as well as concerted government policies aimed at slowing

    growth.

    GDP 9.9 = 8.9 =

    Inflation rose from 3.5% in August to 3.6% in September. Inflation 3.1 = 3.0

    Robust domestic demand due to improving labour market conditions continues to

    fuel economic growth. Recent data from the retail sector corroborate this notion, as

    retail sales rose a strong 14.7% over the same month last year.

    GDP 5.9 4.5 =

    Inflation dropped from 3.0% in August to 2.6% in September. Inflation 2.7 = 3.0

    The end of a good monsoon season augurs for a generous autumn harvest this

    year, with government estimates projecting it to be approximately 10% larger than

    the previous year. The good harvest bodes well for GDP growth, as agriculture is

    an important sector.

    GDP 8.3 = 8.4 =

    Wholesale price inflation accelerated a notch to 8.6% in September, thus ending

    the downward trend in place since May.Inflation 8.1 5.5 =

    Recent data are showing mixed signals but, on balance, continue to point towards

    sustained growth in domestic demand in the third quarter. Moreover, the robust

    domestic sector along with a low dependence on external demand would shield

    the country in the event of a global economic deceleration.

    GDP 6.0 = 6.2

    Inflation fell to 5.8% in September, easing for the first time in six months. Inflation 5.1 6.1

    Economic growth is likely to have moderated in the third quarter amid slowing

    industrial activity. Moreover, consumer confidence continues to slide, suggesting

    weaker private consumption in the months ahead.

    GDP 6.0 = 4.2 =

    Inflation jumped from 2.6% in August to 3.6% in September. Nevertheless,

    monetary authorities halted the tightening cycle and left rates unchanged at

    2.25%, surprising market analysts who had expected the Bank to raise rates.

    Inflation 2.8 3.0

    On 15 October, the government unveiled its 2011 budget, targeting a fiscal deficit

    of 5.4% of GDP, only a notch below this years 5.6% target. The budget was well

    received by the markets, despite delaying the fiscal consolidation measures

    needed to achieve the governments objective of cutting the deficit to 3.0% by

    2015.

    GDP 7.1 = 5.2 =

    Inflation decelerated to 1.8% in September, finally breaking the upward trend in

    place since the beginning of the year.Inflation 1.9 = 2.6 =

    Preliminary data suggest that the economy decelerated in the third quarter.

    However, merchandise exports continue to grow at a robust pace, expanding at a

    double-digit pace for the ninth consecutive month in August. In addition, overseas

    Filipino workers remittances, which account for more than 10% of GDP, were

    9.8% higher than in the same month last year, which should buttress private

    consumption in the months ahead.

    GDP 6.6 5.1

    In September, inflation fell to 3.5% from 4.0% in August. Inflation 4.2 4.0 =

    China

    Hong Kong

    India

    Asia

    ForecastsCurrent Developments

    2010 2011

    Indonesia

    Korea

    Philippines

    Malaysia

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    Summary November 2010FOCUSECONOMICS

    FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 5

    In the third quarter, economic growth slowed to 10.3% from 19.6% annual growth

    in the second quarter. The deceleration reflected a slowdown in manufacturing,

    due to the characteristic volatility of the pharmaceutical sector. As a result of the

    strong economic activity, monetary authorities tightened the policy stance on 14

    October, which was aimed at curbing incipient inflationary pressures.

    GDP 13.7 4.9

    Annual inflation jumped from 3.3% to 3.7% in September. Inflation 2.8 = 2.5 =

    Economic growth is likely to remain solid, as rising payrolls should buttress

    domestic demand. In addition, exports remain robust but are decelerating amid a

    less favourable comparison base.

    GDP 8.3 4.2 =

    Inflation bounced back from minus 0.5% in August to 0.3% in September. Inflation 1.2 = 1.5

    Industrial manufacturing increased 8.7% in August, returning to single-digit growth

    for the first time in eight months. Moreover, the resilient export growth may fade, as

    the currency continues to appreciate and external demand slumps.

    GDP 7.4 4.4 =

    Inflation fell to 3.0% in September from 3.3% in August, prompting the Central

    Bank to pause the monetary tightening cycle in its 20 October meeting.Inflation 3.3 = 3.1

    Industrial output expanded 15.1% annually in September, supported by healthy

    domestic demand and strong exports. Meanwhile, despite recent drops in unofficial

    exchange rate rates, Governor Nguyen Van Giau has stated that the State Bank

    does not plan further exchange rate adjustments following on Augusts

    devaluation.

    GDP 6.6 6.9

    Inflation rose from 8.9% in September to 9.7% in October. Inflation 9.6 8.2

    Forecasts

    2010 2011

    Singapore

    Vietnam

    Current Developments (continued)

    Taiwan

    Thailand

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    Summary November 2010FOCUSECONOMICS

    FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 6

    Gross Domestic Product, annual variation in % GDP Growth, 2010

    Note: Gross domestic product, real annual variation in %. Alldata for India refer to fiscal year ending in March.Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

    Notes and sources

    GDP per capita, USD GDP per capita, 2010

    Note: GDP per capita in current USD.Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

    Notes and sources

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014China 9.6 9.1 9.9 8.9 9.0 9.0 9.1

    Hong Kong 2.2 -2.8 5.9 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.0

    India 6.7 7.4 8.3 8.4 8.6 8.5 8.5

    Indonesia 6.0 4.5 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.5 6.5

    Korea 2.3 0.2 6.0 4.2 4.5 4.2 4.0

    Malaysia 4.6 -1.7 7.1 5.2 5.7 5.6 5.5

    Philippines 3.7 1.1 6.6 5.1 5.4 4.9 4.7Singapore 1.8 -1.3 13.7 4.9 5.3 4.8 4.6

    Taiwan 0.7 -1.9 8.3 4.2 4.7 4.8 4.8

    Thailand 2.5 -2.2 7.4 4.4 4.9 5.1 5.0

    Vietnam 6.2 5.3 6.6 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.9

    Asia (ex Japan) 7.0 6.1 8.8 7.6 7.8 7.8 7.8

    Asean 4.3 1.4 7.5 5.5 5.8 5.8 5.7

    NIEs 1.9 -0.9 7.4 4.3 4.6 4.4 4.3

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014China 3,406 3,664 4,155 4,813 5,525 6,265 7,171

    Hong Kong 30,694 29,991 31,982 33,886 35,766 37,844 40,120

    India 1,049 1,087 1,339 1,570 1,788 2,004 2,242

    Indonesia 2,127 2,320 2,768 3,123 3,435 3,758 4,138

    Korea 19,162 17,078 21,086 24,124 25,953 27,243 28,637

    Malaysia 7,992 6,763 7,589 8,442 9,110 9,899 10,977

    Philippines 1,847 1,747 1,951 2,156 2,298 2,419 2,599

    Singapore 38,904 35,514 40,709 44,350 46,778 49,189 52,096

    Taiwan 16,630 16,775 18,366 20,088 21,366 22,371 23,860

    Thailand 4,135 3,971 4,326 4,756 5,102 5,437 5,824

    Vietnam 1,050 1,056 1,157 1,266 1,442 1,665 1,776

    Asia (ex Japan) 2,835 2,912 3,359 3,844 4,320 4,798 5,368

    Asean 2,831 2,785 3,184 3,537 3,837 4,151 4,510NIEs 20,576 19,172 22,427 25,059 26,790 28,152 29,754

    0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000

    VietnamIndia

    Philippines

    Indonesia

    Asean

    Asia (ex Japan)

    China

    Thailand

    Malaysia

    Taiwan

    Korea

    NIEs

    Hong Kong

    Singapore

    4 6 8 10 12 14

    Hong Kong

    Korea

    Indonesia

    Vietnam

    Philippines

    Malaysia

    ThailandNIEs

    Asean

    Taiwan

    India

    Asia (ex Japan)

    China

    Singapore

    0

    7,500

    15,000

    22,500

    30,000

    Asia (ex

    Japan)

    China India NIEs Korea Asean Indonesia

    2008 2009 2010 2011

    -4

    0

    4

    8

    12

    Asia (ex

    Japan)

    China India NIEs Korea Asean Indonesia

    2008 2009 2010 2011

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    Summary November 2010FOCUSECONOMICS

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    Private Consumption, annual variation in % Private Consumption Growth, 2010

    Note: Private consumption, real annual variation in %. Datafor China are based on FocusEconomics estimates.Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

    Notes and sources

    Investment, annual variation in % Investment Growth, 2010

    Note: Gross fixed investment, real annual variation in %. Datafor China refer to nominal urban investment in fixed assets.Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

    Notes and sources

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014China 9.1 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.1 9.5 9.2

    Hong Kong 2.4 -0.4 5.5 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.0

    India 6.8 4.3 6.9 7.2 7.4 7.2 7.1

    Indonesia 5.3 4.9 5.1 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.7

    Korea 1.3 0.2 4.3 3.6 3.9 4.0 3.7

    Malaysia 8.5 0.8 6.0 6.0 6.2 6.7 6.7

    Philippines 4.7 4.1 5.2 5.1 5.1 4.8 4.8Singapore 2.7 0.4 6.7 5.1 5.2 4.8 4.6

    Taiwan -0.6 1.5 3.1 3.1 4.0 3.3 3.3

    Thailand 2.7 -1.1 4.9 4.0 4.1 4.6 4.3

    Vietnam 9.3 3.7 7.0 7.1 7.0 6.6 7.3

    Asia (ex Japan) 6.7 6.2 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.7 7.6

    Asean 5.1 2.5 5.5 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5

    NIEs 1.2 0.5 4.5 3.8 4.1 3.9 3.7

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014China 26.1 30.5 25.1 22.0 21.8 20.7 21.8

    Hong Kong 0.8 -1.8 9.9 8.1 5.0 4.9 5.2

    India 4.0 7.2 11.6 12.2 12.5 12.9 12.5

    Indonesia 11.9 3.3 8.8 9.9 10.1 10.1 10.4

    Korea -1.9 -0.2 6.7 4.4 5.0 4.8 4.8

    Malaysia 0.8 -5.5 8.5 6.6 5.9 6.8 7.4

    Philippines 2.9 -3.5 10.6 5.7 6.3 6.8 6.5

    Singapore 13.6 -3.3 10.2 7.6 6.7 6.7 6.9

    Taiwan -11.2 -11.8 17.2 4.8 5.0 4.6 4.6

    Thailand 1.2 -9.0 10.1 6.8 6.8 8.9 8.1

    Vietnam 3.8 8.7 7.9 7.5 8.0 7.9 8.0

    Asia (ex Japan) 14.6 16.9 18.1 15.7 15.8 15.5 16.2

    Asean 6.8 -1.4 9.3 8.0 8.0 8.5 8.6NIEs -2.0 -3.5 9.9 5.3 5.2 5.0 5.1

    0 3 6 9 12

    Taiwan

    Korea

    NIEs

    Thailand

    Indonesia

    Philippines

    Hong KongAsean

    Malaysia

    Singapore

    India

    Vietnam

    Asia (ex Japan)

    China

    0 8 16 24 32

    KoreaVietnam

    Malaysia

    Indonesia

    Asean

    NIEs

    Hong Kong

    Thailand

    Singapore

    Philippines

    India

    Taiwan

    Asia (ex Japan)

    China

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    Asia (ex

    Japan)

    China India NIEs Korea Asean Indonesia

    2008 2009 2010 2011

    -10

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    Asia (ex

    Japan)

    China India NIEs Korea Asean Indonesia

    2008 2009 2010 2011

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    Summary November 2010FOCUSECONOMICS

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    Unemployment, 2010

    Note: End-of-year unemployment rate. China end-of-year urbanunemployment. India has no official unemployment statistics.Sources: National statistical institutes.

    Notes and sources

    Fiscal Balance, % of GDP Fiscal Balance, 2010

    Note: Fiscal balance in % of GDP.Sources: National statistical institutes, finance ministries andAsian Development Bank (ADB) for China.

    Notes and sources

    Unemployment, % of active population

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014China 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.2

    Hong Kong 4.1 4.9 4.2 3.9 4.0 3.8 3.8

    India - - - - - - -

    Indonesia 8.1 7.9 7.5 7.2 7.0 7.0 6.6

    Korea 3.3 3.5 3.4 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1

    Malaysia 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.1

    Philippines 6.8 7.1 7.7 7.4 7.2 7.1 7.1Singapore 2.4 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.1

    Taiwan 5.0 5.7 5.1 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.0

    Thailand 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.2

    Vietnam 4.7 4.6 5.1 4.9 5.1 5.0 5.0

    Asia (ex Japan) 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5

    Asean 4.9 5.1 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.6

    NIEs 3.7 4.1 3.7 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.2

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014China -0.4 -2.2 -2.6 -1.9 -1.5 -1.3 -0.7

    Hong Kong 0.1 0.8 -0.6 -0.2 0.7 1.8 2.4

    India -6.0 -6.6 -5.6 -5.1 -4.5 -3.6 -3.4

    Indonesia 0.0 -1.6 -1.6 -1.3 -0.9 -0.9 -0.8

    Korea 1.2 -1.7 -0.6 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.6

    Malaysia -4.8 -7.0 -5.4 -4.6 -3.9 -3.6 -3.4

    Philippines -0.9 -3.9 -3.9 -3.2 -2.7 -2.4 -2.2

    Singapore 5.7 -2.0 -0.6 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.9

    Taiwan -0.9 -4.0 -2.8 -2.3 -1.4 -1.6 -1.4

    Thailand -1.1 -4.4 -3.0 -2.9 -2.7 -1.7 -1.6

    Vietnam -2.1 -4.5 -6.2 -4.9 -3.4 -3.0 -3.2

    Asia (ex Japan) -1.0 -3.0 -2.9 -2.2 -1.8 -1.5 -1.1

    Asean -0.4 -3.3 -2.8 -2.2 -1.7 -1.5 -1.3NIEs 1.1 -1.9 -1.1 -0.4 0.2 0.3 0.5

    0 2 4 6 8

    Thailand

    Singapore

    Korea

    Malaysia

    Asia (ex Japan)

    NIEs

    Hong Kong

    China

    Asean

    Vietnam

    Taiwan

    Indonesia

    Philippines

    -8 -6 -4 -2 0

    VietnamIndia

    Malaysia

    Philippines

    Thailand

    Asia (ex Japan)

    Taiwan

    Asean

    China

    Indonesia

    NIEs

    Korea

    Singapore

    Hong Kong

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    Asia (ex

    Japan)

    China NIEs Korea Asean Indonesia

    2008 2009 2010 2011

    -8

    -6

    -4

    -2

    0

    2

    Asia (ex

    Japan)

    China India NIEs Korea Asean Indonesia

    2008 2009 2010 2011

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    Interest Rate, % Interest Rate, 2010

    Note: Nominal end-of-year interest rates in %.China: 12-month lending rate.Hong Kong: 91-day Hong Kong interbank offered rate(HIBOR).India: RBI repurchase rate.Indonesia: Overnight BI rate.Korea: Bank of Korea base rate.Malaysia: Overnight policy rate.Philippines: 91-day Treasury bill rate.Singapore: 3-month Singapore interbank rate (SIBOR).

    Taiwan: CB discount rate.Thailand: 1-day repurchase rate.Vietnam: Base rate.Sources: National central banks.

    Notes and sources

    Inflation, annual average variation of consumer prices in % Inflation, 2010

    Note: Annual average variation of consumer price index in %.Data for India refer to wholesale price index (WPI).Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

    Notes and sources

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014China 5.9 -0.7 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.2 3.1

    Hong Kong 4.3 0.5 2.7 3.0 2.8 3.1 3.1

    India 7.3 3.5 7.9 5.5 4.8 4.4 4.3

    Indonesia 9.8 5.0 5.2 6.1 5.6 5.7 5.2

    Korea 4.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.0 3.1

    Malaysia 5.4 0.6 1.9 2.6 2.6 3.0 2.6

    Philippines 9.3 3.2 3.9 4.0 4.5 4.8 4.5Singapore 6.5 0.6 2.8 2.5 2.1 1.9 1.6

    Taiwan 3.5 -0.9 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.9

    Thailand 5.4 -0.9 3.3 3.1 2.8 3.0 2.6

    Vietnam 23.0 6.9 9.1 8.2 7.3 6.7 6.1

    Asia (ex Japan) 6.2 0.8 3.9 3.6 3.3 3.5 3.4

    Asean 8.6 2.7 4.2 4.5 4.2 4.3 3.9

    NIEs 4.6 1.4 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7

    0 3 6 9 12

    Taiwan

    Malaysia

    NIEs

    Hong Kong

    Singapore

    Korea

    ChinaThailand

    Asia (ex Japan)

    Philippines

    Asean

    Indonesia

    India

    Vietnam

    -4

    0

    4

    8

    12

    Asia (ex

    Japan)

    China India NIEs Korea Asean Indonesia

    2008 2009 2010 2011

    0 2 4 6 8 10

    Hong KongSingapore

    Taiwan

    NIEs

    Thailand

    Korea

    Malaysia

    Philippines

    Asean

    Asia (ex Japan)

    China

    India

    Indonesia

    Vietnam

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    Asia (ex

    Japan)

    China India NIEs Korea Asean Indonesia

    2008 2009 2010 2011

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014China 5.3 5.3 5.6 5.9 6.1 6.8 7.3

    Hong Kong 1.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 2.6 3.0

    India 5.0 5.0 6.4 7.1 7.1 6.8 7.0

    Indonesia 9.3 6.5 6.7 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.6

    Korea 3.3 2.0 2.6 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.8

    Malaysia 3.3 2.0 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.6 3.8

    Philippines 6.1 3.9 4.2 4.8 5.2 5.4 5.3

    Singapore 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.8 1.8 2.5 2.6

    Taiwan 2.0 1.3 1.6 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.5

    Thailand 2.8 1.3 2.0 2.8 3.2 3.8 4.0

    Vietnam 8.5 8.0 8.6 9.3 9.9 9.3 9.2

    Asia (ex Japan) 4.8 4.5 4.9 5.5 5.7 6.2 6.5

    Asean 5.6 4.0 4.3 4.9 5.3 5.6 5.7NIEs 2.4 1.4 1.9 2.4 2.8 3.1 3.3

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    Current Account Balance, % of GDP Current Account Balance, 2010

    Note: Current account balance as % of GDP.Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.China: State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE).

    Notes and sources

    Nominal Depreciation vs. USD, in % Depreciation versus USD, 2010

    Note: Nominal depreciation of national currencies versusUSD in %. Positive number means currency is losing valueagainst USD. Regional aggregates provided only as indicativeinformation.Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.China: State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE).

    Notes and sources

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014China -6.9 -0.1 -3.2 -4.8 -2.7 -1.8 -4.1

    Hong Kong -0.7 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1

    India 21.6 -12.9 -1.9 -4.1 -2.1 0.0 -1.1

    Indonesia 15.1 -17.0 -11.7 -3.2 0.4 1.7 0.9

    Korea 25.7 -8.2 -6.8 -5.6 -3.4 -0.3 -0.1

    Malaysia 4.5 -1.2 -5.6 -6.6 -1.7 0.5 -0.2

    Philippines 12.8 -2.4 -6.1 -3.7 -1.1 -0.9 -0.6Singapore -0.1 -2.6 -5.5 -2.1 -2.1 1.8 -0.4

    Taiwan 1.3 -2.6 -2.9 -2.2 -1.1 0.3 -1.3

    Thailand 3.4 -4.7 -9.3 -1.5 -0.9 0.8 0.6

    Vietnam 6.1 8.7 5.4 2.5 -4.2 -1.4 8.9

    Asia (ex Japan) 3.6 -3.9 -4.0 -4.3 -2.3 -0.8 -2.4

    Asean 8.4 -7.5 -7.9 -3.0 -0.9 0.9 0.9

    NIEs 14.1 -5.1 -4.9 -3.8 -2.4 0.1 -0.4

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014China 9.4 6.0 4.8 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.6

    Hong Kong 13.6 8.7 8.4 8.3 7.8 7.6 5.9

    India -2.5 -3.3 -2.8 -2.5 -2.1 -1.9 -1.8

    Indonesia 0.0 2.0 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3

    Korea -0.6 5.1 2.3 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.6

    Malaysia 17.5 16.7 13.5 12.1 10.7 11.1 10.6

    Philippines 2.2 5.3 4.5 4.0 3.7 2.7 2.4

    Singapore 19.2 19.1 17.5 15.8 15.2 13.5 13.6

    Taiwan 7.2 11.1 8.5 7.0 6.5 6.6 6.5

    Thailand 0.6 7.7 3.6 2.7 3.2 2.5 2.3

    Vietnam -11.8 -7.7 -8.3 -7.1 -7.0 -6.2 -5.9

    Asia (ex Japan) 5.9 5.0 3.7 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.7

    Asean 4.9 6.9 5.3 4.5 4.2 3.7 3.5NIEs 5.1 8.6 6.2 5.2 4.9 4.6 4.5

    -15 -10 -5 0 5 10

    Indonesia

    Thailand

    Asean

    Korea

    Philippines

    Malaysia

    SingaporeNIEs

    Asia (ex Japan)

    China

    Taiwan

    India

    Hong Kong

    Vietnam

    -10 0 10 20

    VietnamIndia

    Indonesia

    Korea

    Thailand

    Asia (ex Japan)

    Philippines

    China

    Asean

    NIEs

    Hong Kong

    Taiwan

    Malaysia

    Singapore

    -20

    -10

    0

    10

    20

    30

    Asia (ex

    Japan)

    China India NIEs Korea Asean Indonesia

    2008 2009 2010 2011

    -4

    0

    4

    8

    12

    Asia (ex

    Japan)

    China India NIEs Korea Asean Indonesia

    2008 2009 2010 2011

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    Export Growth, annual variation in % Export Growth, 2010

    Note: Nominal annual variation in % of merchandise exportsSources: National statistical institutes and central banks.China: Customs Department.

    Notes and sources

    Import Growth, annual variation in % Import Growth, 2010

    Note: Nominal annual variation in % of merchandise imports.Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.China: Customs Department.

    Notes and sources

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014China 17.4 -16.0 24.7 14.3 6.1 5.3 4.4

    Hong Kong 5.6 -11.9 17.0 9.8 6.0 7.8 8.4

    India 13.7 -7.8 19.5 16.6 13.3 10.9 11.7

    Indonesia 18.3 -14.4 23.5 12.4 11.3 12.0 9.1

    Korea 14.2 -13.7 22.3 9.9 10.6 9.4 8.7

    Malaysia 13.1 -21.1 21.4 11.9 10.7 9.1 7.0

    Philippines -2.2 -22.3 22.3 10.1 5.9 5.4 5.1Singapore 12.7 -20.2 24.7 12.2 10.3 12.8 14.2

    Taiwan 3.4 -20.2 30.5 9.5 10.8 8.4 9.1

    Thailand 16.8 -13.9 22.0 9.1 12.7 11.7 8.7

    Vietnam 29.1 -9.7 21.3 17.7 13.0 17.5 15.1

    Asia (ex Japan) 13.7 -15.7 23.6 12.5 8.6 8.3 7.8

    Asean 14.4 -17.8 23.4 11.9 11.0 11.8 10.7

    NIEs 9.4 -16.0 23.2 10.4 9.4 9.6 10.1

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014China 18.5 -11.2 34.2 17.1 7.1 6.5 6.7

    Hong Kong 6.2 -10.2 18.9 11.1 5.1 6.3 8.5

    India 21.2 -9.6 24.4 16.7 10.2 10.7 12.4

    Indonesia 36.9 -27.7 34.2 16.7 11.4 13.7 13.2

    Korea 21.8 -25.7 32.6 12.6 11.6 9.3 8.7

    Malaysia 6.5 -21.0 29.3 14.0 10.5 12.7 7.6

    Philippines 6.2 -24.1 19.7 11.4 8.3 6.6 7.0

    Singapore 21.3 -23.1 23.5 12.9 10.0 12.9 18.1

    Taiwan 9.4 -26.9 39.2 11.6 11.4 8.7 9.7

    Thailand 26.4 -24.9 32.3 11.1 10.2 9.1 9.1

    Vietnam 28.6 -14.7 21.3 15.5 11.8 15.9 14.6

    Asia (ex Japan) 17.5 -17.0 28.9 14.6 8.7 8.7 9.4

    Asean 20.7 -23.0 26.7 13.4 10.4 12.2 12.9NIEs 14.7 -20.9 27.0 12.0 9.2 9.2 11.0

    15 20 25 30 35

    Hong Kong

    India

    Vietnam

    Malaysia

    Thailand

    Korea

    PhilippinesNIEs

    Asean

    Indonesia

    Asia (ex Japan)

    China

    Singapore

    Taiwan

    15 20 25 30 35 40

    Hong KongPhilippines

    Vietnam

    Singapore

    India

    Asean

    NIEs

    Asia (ex Japan)

    Malaysia

    Thailand

    Korea

    China

    Indonesia

    Taiwan

    -30

    -15

    0

    15

    30

    Asia (ex

    Japan)

    China India NIEs Korea Asean Indonesia

    2008 2009 2010 2011

    -50

    -25

    0

    25

    50

    Asia (ex

    Japan)

    China India NIEs Korea Asean Indonesia

    2008 2009 2010 2011

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    Summary November 2010FOCUSECONOMICS

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    International Reserves, months of imports International Reserves, 2010

    Note: International reserves as months of imports.Sources: Central banks.

    Notes and sources

    External Debt, % of GDP External Debt, 2010

    Note: External debt as % of GDP.Sources: National statistical institutes, central banks andfinance ministries.

    Notes and sources

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014China 20.6 28.6 23.9 22.3 18.5 22.7 21.9

    Hong Kong 5.6 8.8 8.2 8.1 7.7 8.1 8.0

    India 9.9 12.2 10.1 9.4 8.6 9.4 8.6

    Indonesia 5.3 9.4 8.4 7.9 7.8 7.0 6.4

    Korea 5.7 10.2 8.3 7.9 7.7 7.2 7.8

    Malaysia 7.5 9.9 8.2 7.8 7.8 7.5 7.1

    Philippines 7.4 11.0 11.2 11.1 10.9 10.9 10.6Singapore 6.6 9.2 8.6 8.4 8.6 7.8 6.7

    Taiwan 14.8 24.2 19.0 18.3 17.9 17.4 16.7

    Thailand 7.6 12.6 10.9 10.8 11.2 10.1 8.9

    Vietnam 3.6 2.9 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.0

    Asia (ex Japan) 11.9 17.5 15.0 14.2 12.6 13.9 13.2

    Asean 6.6 9.5 8.5 8.3 8.4 7.7 6.9

    NIEs 7.4 11.8 10.2 9.9 9.7 9.4 9.2

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014China 8.3 8.6 6.8 6.0 5.7 5.6 5.3

    Hong Kong 308 319 303 255 211 173 139

    India 18.5 19.9 16.4 15.3 14.0 13.8 12.8

    Indonesia 31.9 32.2 25.8 22.8 21.8 20.8 19.6

    Korea 40.6 48.3 39.4 35.7 32.2 30.9 29.5

    Malaysia 30.8 35.7 28.1 24.7 22.9 21.4 20.2

    Philippines 32.3 33.1 30.8 27.6 25.4 24.4 22.7

    Singapore 216 235 212 210 207 204 202

    Taiwan 23.6 21.1 21.5 21.0 17.7 19.1 18.9

    Thailand 24.0 26.6 23.0 20.6 19.9 20.1 19.6

    Vietnam 28.9 30.3 29.0 28.6 24.7 24.3 23.6

    Asia (ex Japan) 28.8 29.2 25.3 22.3 19.8 18.2 16.4

    Asean 54.4 58.3 50.8 47.5 45.5 44.0 42.1NIEs 89.6 99.1 87.8 78.8 70.2 65.0 59.8

    0 5 10 15 20 25

    Vietnam

    Hong Kong

    Malaysia

    Korea

    Indonesia

    Asean

    SingaporeIndia

    NIEs

    Thailand

    Philippines

    Asia (ex Japan)

    Taiwan

    China

    0 10 20 30 40

    China

    India

    Taiwan

    Thailand

    Asia (ex Japan)

    Indonesia

    Malaysia

    Vietnam

    Philippines

    Korea

    0

    8

    16

    24

    32

    Asia (ex

    Japan)

    China India NIEs Korea Asean Indonesia

    2008 2009 2010 2011

    0

    25

    50

    75

    100

    125

    Asia (ex

    Japan)

    China India NIEs Korea Asean Indonesia

    2008 2009 2010 2011

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    Summary November 2010FOCUSECONOMICS

    FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 13

    Quarterly Data | Economic Growth and Inflation | Q1 2008 - Q4 2010

    Gross domestic productannual var. in % Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4China 11.3 10.7 9.9 7.5 6.5 8.2 9.5 11.1 11.9 10.3 9.6 8.6

    Hong Kong 8.6 5.6 2.6 -1.2 -7.7 -3.8 -2.4 2.5 8.0 6.5 5.7 4.3

    India 8.6 7.8 7.7 5.8 5.8 6.0 8.6 6.5 8.6 8.8 7.8 8.8

    Indonesia 6.2 6.4 6.4 5.3 4.5 4.1 4.2 5.4 5.7 6.2 6.1 6.2

    Korea 5.5 4.4 3.3 -3.3 -4.3 -2.2 1.0 6.0 8.1 7.2 4.3 4.5Malaysia 7.6 6.5 4.9 0.1 -6.2 -3.9 -1.2 4.4 10.1 8.9 5.8 4.7

    Philippines 3.9 3.7 4.6 2.8 0.5 1.2 0.2 2.1 7.8 7.9 5.8 4.8

    Singapore 7.4 2.7 0.0 -2.5 -8.9 -1.7 1.8 3.8 16.9 19.6 10.3 10.7

    Taiwan 6.9 5.4 -0.8 -7.1 -9.1 -6.9 -1.0 9.1 13.7 12.5 7.1 3.0

    Thailand 6.4 5.2 2.9 -4.2 -7.1 -4.9 -2.7 5.9 12.0 9.1 6.5 3.5

    Vietnam 7.5 6.7 6.5 5.6 3.1 4.5 6.0 6.9 5.8 6.2 6.5 7.2

    Asia (ex Japan) 9.2 8.3 7.3 4.2 3.2 4.8 6.6 8.7 10.6 9.6 8.2 7.5

    Asean 6.4 5.4 4.5 1.4 -1.3 0.3 1.5 4.9 9.1 9.0 6.7 6.0

    NIEs 6.4 4.6 1.9 -3.8 -6.4 -3.5 0.2 6.1 10.4 9.8 5.8 4.9

    2008 2009 2010

    Yoy change of quarterlyavg. CPI % Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4China 8.0 7.8 5.3 2.5 -0.6 -1.5 -1.3 0.7 2.2 2.9 3.5 3.5

    Hong Kong 4.6 5.7 4.6 2.3 1.7 -0.1 -0.9 1.3 1.9 2.6 2.3 2.8

    India 6.0 9.0 11.1 8.6 3.6 0.5 0.3 4.3 9.5 10.6 9.0 6.3

    Indones ia 7.6 10.7 13.5 12.6 9.2 5.7 2.8 2.6 3.7 4.4 6.2 6.1

    Korea 3.0 3.6 4.4 4.7 4.7 4.2 3.3 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.7 3.2

    Malaysia 2.6 4.9 8.4 5.9 3.7 1.3 -2.3 -0.2 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.3

    Philippines 5.5 9.7 12.2 9.7 6.9 3.2 0.3 2.9 4.3 4.2 3.8 3.4

    Singapore 6.6 7.5 6.6 5.4 2.1 -0.5 -0.4 -0.8 0.9 3.1 1.6 3.7

    Taiwan 3.6 4.2 4.5 1.9 0.0 -0.8 -1.3 -1.2 1.3 1.1 0.8 1.1

    Thailand 5.1 7.5 7.3 2.2 -0.3 -2.8 -2.2 1.9 3.8 3.3 3.3 2.9

    Vietnam 11.1 15.5 20.2 23.0 22.4 17.4 11.0 6.9 5.2 5.9 7.3 8.2

    Asia (ex Japan) 6.5 7.3 6.6 4.4 1.6 0.1 -0.3 1.5 3.4 4.1 4.2 3.9

    Asean 6.2 9.0 10.9 9.0 6.4 3.2 1.0 2.0 3.1 3.7 4.3 4.5

    NIEs 3.7 4.4 4.7 3.8 2.9 1.9 1.2 1.2 1.9 2.2 2.1 2.7

    2008 2009 2010

    GDP, year-on-year variation in %

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    Q1 08 Q3 08 Q1 09 Q3 09 Q1 10 Q3 10

    Asia (ex Japan) China

    India Korea

    Consumer Prices, year-on-year variation in %

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    Q1 08 Q3 08 Q1 09 Q3 09 Q1 10 Q3 10

    Asia (ex Japan) China

    India Korea

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    | 14

    November 2010FOCUSECONOMICS

    FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia

    Economic Release Calendar

    Date Country Event

    27 October Korea Q3 2010 National Accounts

    28 October Korea September Balance of Payments

    29 October Indonesia September Merchandise Trade

    Korea October Industrial Production

    Singapore Q3 2010 Unemployment

    Thailand September Industrial Production

    Thailand September Merchandise Trade

    1 November China October PMI

    Hong Kong September Retail Sales

    India October Merchandise Trade

    Indonesia October Consumer Prices

    Korea October Consumer Prices

    2 November Thailand October Consumer Prices

    3 November Malaysia September Merchandise Trade

    5 November Philippines October Consumer Prices

    Taiwan October Consumer Prices

    Taiwan October Producer Prices

    8 November Taiwan October Merchandise Trade

    10 November Korea October Unemployment

    Malaysia September Industrial Production

    Philippines September Merchandise Trade

    11 November China October Consumer Prices

    China October Fixed Asset Investment

    China October Retail Sales

    China October Industrial Production

    India September Industrial Production

    Indonesia September Industrial Production

    12 November Hong Kong Q3 2010 National Accounts

    India September Industrial Production

    14 November India October Wholesale Prices

    15 November Korea October Merchandise Trade

    16 November Singapore October Merchandise Trade

    Indonesia Q3 2010 Balance of Payments

    18 November Indonesia Q3 2010 National Accounts

    19 November Malaysia Q3 2010 National Accounts

    20 November Taiwan Q3 2010 Balance of Payments

    22 November Hong Kong October Consumer Prices

    Taiwan October Unemployment

    23 November Korea Q3 2010 External Debt

    Singapore October Consumer Prices

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    China November 2010FOCUSECONOMICS

    FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia

    According to official media, the government currently expects the economy to

    grow 9.5% this year. Currently, panellists have left their projections unchanged

    over the previous month and expect the economy to expand 9.9%. For next

    year, panellists expect the economy to expand 8.9% which is unchanged over

    last months Consensus.

    REAL SECTOR | Industrial production slows in September

    In September, industrial production expanded 13.3% over the same month

    last year. The reading came in below the previous months 13.9% expansion

    and undershot market expectations, which had seen industrial production

    strengthening to a 14.0% expansion.

    One of the primary drivers behind the monthly deceleration was transport

    equipment, which slowed from 16.6% year-on-year in August to 14.4% in

    September. In addition, electronic equipment manufacturing also slowed,

    moderating to 11.6% annually (August: +14.9% yoy).

    As a result of the September reading, industrial production growth weakened

    to 13.5% in the third quarter, down from the 15.9% expansion recorded in thesecond quarter. Meanwhile, annual average growth in industrial production

    moderated for the first time in a year, falling a notch from 16.9% in August to

    16.8%.

    Consensus Forecast participants expect industrial output to grow 15.0% this

    year, which is 0.3 percentage points down from last months estimate. For

    2011, the panel expects industrial production growth to moderate to 13.6%.

    REAL SECTOR | Retail sales pick up speed

    In September, nominal retail sales added 18.8% over the same month last

    year. The figure came in above the 18.4% increase tallied in August and overshotmarket expectations, which had seen retail sales accelerating only a notch to

    an 18.5% increase.

    The pick-up in retail was, in part, the result of stronger sales for foodstuffs,

    which accelerated from 28.1% year-on-year growth in August to 31.9% in

    September. Meanwhile, car sales, which had previously been an important

    driver in the surge in retail sales, slowed over the previous month (August:

    +35.2 yoy; September: +29.7% yoy).

    Despite the strong September reading, nominal retail sales added 18.4% in

    the third quarter, down a notch from the second quarters 18.5% reading. On

    the other hand, annual average retail sales continued to rise, improving from

    17.7% in August to 18.0%, which is the highest level since July 2009.

    Consensus Forecast panellists expect retail sales to grow 18.9% this year,

    which is 0.2 percentage points down over last months forecast. For 2011, the

    panel anticipates retail sales to slow to 17.1%.

    REAL SECTOR | Investment slows again

    In the first nine months of the year, nominal urban fixed-asset investment

    increased 24.5% over the same period last year. The reading was down from

    the 24.8% figure tallied in the first eight months of the year and undershot

    market expectations by a notch, which had seen investment slowing to 24.6%.

    Based on the nine-month growth rate published by the National Statistical Office

    (NBS), urban fixed-asset investment grew 23.2% year-on-year in September,

    which was down from the previous months 23.9% reading.

    35.1

    31.6

    24.3

    20.5

    26.6 26.6 26.325.4 25.4

    24.9

    22.3

    23.923.2

    20.0

    25.0

    30.0

    35.0

    40.0

    Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

    %

    Year-on-year

    Annual Average

    Nominal Urban Fixed Investment | variation in %

    Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation of nominal urban fixed in-vestment in %. Owing to seasonal factors related to the Lunar New Year,January and February data are reported together.Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and FocusEconomicscalculations.

    15.5

    16.215.8

    17.5

    15.2

    22.1

    18.018.5 18.7 18.3

    17.918.4

    18.8

    14.0

    16.0

    18.0

    20.0

    22.0

    24.0

    Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

    %

    Year-on-year Annual Average

    Nominal Retail Sales | variation in %

    Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation of retail sales in %. Janu-ary and February data are affected by to seasonal factors related to theLunar New Year.Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and FocusEconomicscalculations.

    Industrial Production | variation in %

    Note: Year-on-year and annual average var. of industrial production in %.Owing to seasonal factors related to the Lunar New Year, January and Feb-ruary data are reported together.Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and FocusEconomicscalculations.

    13.9

    16.1

    19.218.5

    20.7 20.7

    18.1 17.8

    16.5

    13.7 13.413.9

    13.3

    5.0

    10.0

    15.0

    20.0

    25.0

    Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

    %

    Year-on-year Annual Average

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    Consensus Forecast participants expect urban fixed-asset investment growth

    to accelerate to 25.1% for the full year 2010, which is 0.2 percentage points up

    from last months estimate. For 2011, the panel expects investment to moderate

    to 22.0%.

    OUTLOOK | PMI jumps in September

    The September Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) from the National Bureau

    of Statistics (NBS) and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFPL)rose by 2.1 percentage points to 53.8%. The figure beat market forecasts,

    which had seen the index rising only to 52.0%. With the September reading,

    the index has now tallied more than a year and a half above the 50% threshold

    after plummeting far below that level in November 2008. A reading above 50%

    indicates that the manufacturing sector is expanding, while a reading below

    50% implies a contraction.

    The improvement was broad-based, as nine of the 11 components composing

    the index rose over the previous month. That said, the category that experienced

    the most marked increase was input prices, which could indicate an increase

    in price pressures going forward.

    MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation rises again in September

    In September, consumer prices rose for the third consecutive month to reach

    3.6% annually. The figure came in a notch above the 3.5% year-on-year increase

    registered in the previous month, but was in line with market expectations.

    Furthermore, the reading represented the highest level in nearly two years.

    The main drivers behind the increase were higher prices for food. As a result of

    the September figure, annual average inflation rose from the 1.9% registered

    in August to 2.3%, the highest level in over a year.

    Producer prices, in contrast, were flat over the previous month. In September,the producer price index (PPI) added a more-than-expected 4.3% annually,

    which mirrored the previous months reading. More moderate producer prices

    may feed into lower consumer prices going forward.

    On 20 October, Central Bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan warned that inflation

    risks could increase going forward. Currently, the government maintains a 3.0%

    inflation target for this year. Consensus Forecast participants expect inflation

    to average 3.1% in 2010, which is 0.1 percentage points down from last months

    estimate. For 2011, the panel expects inflation to moderate a notch to 3.0%.

    MONETARY SECTOR | PBOC surprises market by raising interest ratesAfter the close of business on 19 October, the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC)

    surprised the market by lifting both the 1-year deposit rate and the headline 1-

    year lending rate by 25 basis points, from 2.25% to 2.50% and from 5.31% to

    5.56%, respectively. The decision took effect on 20 October. monetary policy

    makers had left interest rates unchanged since December 2008.

    The hike came on the heels of the 11 October decision to raise the reserve

    requirement ratio (RRR) by 50 basis points. Currently, the RRR stands at 17.5%

    for the countrys largest lenders. The hike represented the fourth time this year

    that the PBOC increased the RRR, with the last move taking place in May.

    These measures signal that the countrys policy makers are firmly committed

    to keeping inflation expectations under control. Furthermore, a tighter monetary

    policy corroborates the notion that Chinese leaders are not concerned about a

    global double-dip recession.

    -0.8-0.5

    0.6

    1.9

    1.5

    2.72.4

    2.83.1

    2.9

    3.33.5 3.6

    -2.0

    -1.0

    0.0

    1.0

    2.0

    3.0

    4.0

    Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

    %

    Year-on-year

    Annual Average

    Inflation | Consumer Price Index

    Note: Annual and annual average variation ofconsumer price index in %.Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS).

    Purchasing Managers Index

    Note: Purchasing Managers Index from the National Bureau of Statistics ofChina (NBS) and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP).A reading above 50 shows an increase while a value below 50 shows adecrease.Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and the China Federa-tion of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP).

    35

    40

    45

    50

    55

    60

    Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10

    %

    5.0

    6.0

    7.0

    8.0

    Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10

    %

    Monetary Policy Rate | in %

    Note: One-year lending rate in %.Source: Peoples Bank of China (PBOC).

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    Merchandise Trade | USD bn

    Note: Monthly exports, imports and trade balance in USD billion.Source: General Administration of Customs of the Peoples Republic of Chinaand FocusEconomics calculations.

    -50

    0

    50

    100

    150

    Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10

    Trade Balance Exports Imports

    EXTERNAL SECTOR | Export growth moderates further

    In September, exports added 25.1% over the same month last year to reach

    USD 145.0 billion. The figure came in below the 34.4% expansion in August

    and undershot market expectations, which had seen exports growing 26.0%.

    The reading represented the fourth consecutive month of slowing export growth.

    Meanwhile, imports grew 24.1% year-on-year (August: +35.2% yoy) to reach

    USD 128.1 billion. As a result, the trade surplus shrunk from USD 20.1 billion

    in August to USD 16.9 billion in September.

    Despite the moderation in September, the three-month average in exports

    reached USD 143.3 billion, which is well above the USD 136.0 billion pre-crisis

    peak reached in September 2008. Consensus Forecast panellists estimate

    year exports to grow 24.7% this year and 14.3% in 2011.

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    Economic Indicators | 2005 - 2014

    Annual Data 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Real Sector Population (million) 1,322 1,314 1,323 1,331 1,340 1,365 1,374 1,382 1,391 1,400

    GDP per capita (USD) 1,685 2,032 2,564 3,406 3,720 4,184 4,838 5,578 6,358 7,293

    GDP (USD bn) 2,228 2,671 3,391 4,535 4,984 5,711 6,646 7,711 8,845 10,211

    Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 10.4 11.6 13.0 9.6 9.1 9.9 8.9 9.0 9.0 9.1

    Private Consumption (ann. var. in %) 12.0 9.8 10.7 9.1 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.1 9.5 9.2

    Nom. Fixed Urban Invest. (ann. var. in %) 26.0 23.9 25.8 26.1 30.5 25.1 22.0 21.8 20.7 21.8

    Industrial Production (ann. var. in %) 16.3 16.4 18.0 12.9 11.1 15.0 13.6 13.1 12.8 12.7

    Retail Sales (annual var. in %) 12.9 13.7 16.8 21.7 15.5 18.9 17.1 17.6 18.2 19.0

    Unemployment (% of active population) 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.2

    Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -1.2 -0.7 0.7 -0.4 -2.2 -2.6 -1.9 -1.5 -1.3 -0.7

    Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M1 in %) 11.8 17.5 21.4 8.6 32.4 - - - - -

    Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 1.6 2.8 6.5 1.2 1.9 - - - - -

    Inflation (CPI, annual average in %) 1.8 1.5 4.8 5.9 -0.7 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.2 3.1

    Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %) 3.2 3.0 5.4 -1.1 1.7 - - - - -

    12-Month Lending Rate (%, eop) 5.58 6.12 7.47 5.31 5.31 5.55 5.95 6.12 6.85 7.33

    Stock Market (SSE comp. var. in %) -8.3 130 96.7 -65.4 80.0 - - - - -

    Exchange Rate (CNY per USD, eop) 8.07 7.82 7.30 6.83 6.83 6.61 6.31 6.15 6.04 5.80

    Exchange Rate (CNY per USD, average) 8.18 7.94 7.59 6.93 6.83 6.72 6.46 6.23 6.09 5.92

    External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 7.2 9.4 11.0 9.4 6.0 4.8 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.6

    Current Account Balance (USD bn) 161 250 372 426 297 272 274 299 339 364

    Trade Balance (USD bn) 102 177 262 297 196 176 164 158 147 116

    Exports (USD bn) 763 969 1,218 1,430 1,202 1,505 1,720 1,825 1,922 2,006

    Imports (USD bn) 660 792 956 1,133 1,005 1,330 1,557 1,667 1,775 1,894

    Exports (annual variation in %) 28.4 27.1 25.7 17.4 -16.0 24.7 14.3 6.1 5.3 4.4

    Imports (annual variation in %) 17.7 19.9 20.7 18.5 -11.2 34.2 17.1 7.1 6.5 6.7

    International Reserves (USD bn) 819 1,066 1,528 1,946 2,399 2,654 2,899 2,574 3,353 3,450

    International Reserves (months of imports) 14.9 16.2 19.2 20.6 28.6 23.9 22.3 18.5 22.7 21.9

    External Debt (USD bn) 281 323 374 375 429 386 396 442 496 540

    External Debt (% of GDP) 12.6 12.1 11.0 8.3 8.6 6.8 6.0 5.7 5.6 5.3

    Quarterly Data Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 9.5 11.1 11.9 10.3 9.6 8.6 8.5 8.7 8.8 9.0Industrial Production (ann. var. in %) 12.3 17.9 19.6 15.9 13.5 12.5 13.5 13.5 13.6 13.5

    Inflation (CPI, annual average in %) -1.3 0.7 2.2 2.9 3.5 3.5 3.0 3.1 2.8 2.4

    12-Month Lending Rate (%, eop) 5.31 5.31 5.31 5.31 5.31 5.55 5.76 5.94 6.01 5.95

    Exchange Rate (CNY per USD, eop) 6.83 6.83 6.83 6.79 6.70 6.61 6.54 6.47 6.36 6.31

    Monthly Data Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10Nom. Fixed Urban Invest. (ann. var. in %) 20.5 26.6 26.6 26.3 25.4 25.4 24.9 22.3 23.9 23.2

    Industrial Production (ann. var. in %) 18.5 20.7 20.7 18.1 17.8 16.5 13.7 13.4 13.9 13.3

    Retail Sales (annual var. in %) 17.5 15.2 22.1 18.0 18.5 18.7 18.3 17.9 18.4 18.8

    PMI (50.0%-point threshold) 56.6 55.8 52.0 55.1 55.7 53.9 52.1 51.2 51.7 53.8

    Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 1.9 1.5 2.7 2.4 2.8 3.1 2.9 3.3 3.5 3.6

    Exchange Rate (CNY per USD, eop) 6.83 6.83 6.83 6.83 6.83 6.83 6.79 6.78 6.80 6.70

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    -6

    0

    6

    12

    18

    1995 2000 2005 2010

    ChinaAsia (ex Japan)

    World

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11

    ChinaAsia (ex Japan)World

    0

    5

    10

    15

    1995 2000 2005 2010

    China

    Asia (ex Japan)

    -10

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    1995 2000 2005 2010

    China

    Asia (ex Japan)

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep

    Maximum

    Consensus

    Minimum

    6

    8

    10

    12

    Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep

    Maximum

    Consensus

    Minimum

    8

    9

    10

    11

    Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep

    2010

    2011

    20

    22

    24

    26

    28

    Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep

    2010

    2011

    Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product

    3 | GDP 2010 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2011 | evolution of forecasts

    5 | Consumption | % variation 6 | Investment | % variation

    Real GDP growth in %2 | Real GDP | Q1 07-Q4 11 | % variation

    7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst 8 | Investment | evolution of forecasts

    General:Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated. All realsector data are from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS),Asian Development Bank (ADB) and FocusEconomics estimates. See be-low for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Fore-cast.

    1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: NBS.2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.Source: NBS.

    3 GDP, evolution of 2010 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 Private consumption, annual variation in %. Source: FocusEconomicsestimate.

    6 Nominal urban fixed investment, annual variation in %. Source: NBS.7 Private consumption, change in 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last18 months.

    8 Nominal urban fixed investment, change in 2010 and 2011 forecastsduring the last 18 months.9 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: NBS.10 Urban unemployment, % of active population. Source: NBS.11 Balance of central government, % of GDP. Source: ADB.12 Industrial production, evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during thelast 18 months.13 Unemployment, evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18months.14 Balance of central government, evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts

    during the last 18 months.

    Notes and sources

    1 | Real GDP | 1995 - 2014 | % variation

    Individual Forecasts 2010 2011Allianz 10.0 9.0

    ANZ 10.2 9.6

    Bank of China (Hong Kong) 10.0 9.0

    Capital Economics 10.0 8.0

    Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 9.5 8.8Core Pacific-Yamaichi 9.5 8.8

    Credit Suisse 9.7 8.8

    Daiwa Capital Markets 9.8 8.6

    DBS Bank 10.0 9.5

    Deutsche Bank 9.6 8.6

    Goldman Sachs 10.1 10.0

    Hang Seng Bank 9.5 9.0

    HSBC 10.0 8.9

    ING 10.0 9.0

    JPMorgan 9.8 8.6

    Lloyds TSB Corp. Mrkts. 9.5 8.7

    Morgan Stanley 10.0 9.5

    RBC Capital Markets 9.7 8.8

    Standard Chartered Bank 10.0 8.5UBS 10.0 8.7

    United Overseas Bank 10.0 8.3

    Wing Hang Bank 10.2 -

    SummaryMinimum 9.5 8.0

    Maximum 10.2 10.0

    Median 10.0 8.8

    Consensus 9.9 8.9History30 days ago 9.9 8.9

    60 days ago 10.0 8.9

    90 days ago 10.1 8.9

    Additional Forecasts

    IMF (Oct. 2010) 10.5 9.6ADB (Sep. 2010) 9.6 9.1

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    FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia

    0

    6

    12

    18

    24

    1995 2000 2005 2010

    China

    Asia (ex Japan)

    2

    3

    4

    5

    1995 2000 2005 2010

    China

    Asia (ex Japan)

    -8

    -4

    0

    4

    1995 2000 2005 2010

    ChinaAsia (ex Japan)World

    10

    12

    14

    16

    Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep

    20102011

    4.1

    4.3

    4.5

    4.7

    Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep

    20102011

    -4

    -3

    -2

    -1

    Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep

    20102011

    Real Sector | Additional forecasts

    14 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst

    11 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP

    12 | Industry | evolution of forecasts

    9 | Industry | % variation

    13 | Unemployment | evolution of fcst

    10 | Unemployment | % of active pop.

    Individual Forecasts 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011Allianz - - - - - - - - -2.7 -2.3

    ANZ - - - - - - - - - -

    Bank of China (Hong Kong) 9.8 9.4 26.0 21.5 16.6 16.0 4.3 4.0 -3.0 -1.5

    Capital Economics - - - - - - - - -3.0 -2.0

    Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 9.0 9.5 - - 14.5 12.7 4.1 4.0 -2.7 -2.4

    Core Pacific-Yamaichi - - - - - - - - - -

    Credit Suisse 9.6 9.7 - - - - - - - -

    Daiwa Capital Markets - - - - 12.3 12.5 - - -1.1 1.3

    DBS Bank - - 24.5 23.5 - - - - -2.8 -2.5

    Deutsche Bank 9.0 9.0 21.0 20.0 13.5 12.0 - - -2.5 -2.0

    Goldman Sachs - - - - - - - - -2.0 -

    Hang Seng Bank - - - - 14.0 12.0 - - - -

    HSBC 9.5 9.2 26.0 20.0 15.5 13.2 4.3 4.3 -2.8 -2.6

    ING - - 28.0 25.0 17.8 17.0 4.2 4.2 -2.8 -2.4

    JPMorgan - - - - 15.9 13.6 - - -2.1 -1.8

    Lloyds TSB Corp. Mrkts. 9.2 9.7 - - - - 4.3 4.2 - -

    Morgan Stanley - - - - - - - - -3.0 -3.0

    RBC Capital Markets - - - - - - - - -2.3 -1.1

    Standard Chartered Bank - - - - - - - - - -UBS 9.7 9.0 - - - - - - -3.5 -2.0

    United Overseas Bank - - - - - - - - -2.7 -1.9

    Wing Hang Bank - - 25.0 - 15.0 - - - - -

    SummaryMinimum 9.0 9.0 21.0 20.0 12.3 12.0 4.1 4.0 -3.5 -3.0

    Maximum 9.8 9.7 28.0 25.0 17.8 17.0 4.3 4.3 -1.1 1.3

    Median 9.5 9.4 25.5 21.5 15.0 13.0 4.3 4.2 -2.7 -2.0

    Consensus 9.4 9.4 25.1 22.0 15.0 13.6 4.2 4.1 -2.6 -1.9History30 days ago 9.4 9.4 24.9 22.0 15.3 13.6 4.3 4.2 -2.6 -1.9

    60 days ago 9.4 9.3 25.0 21.7 15.3 13.6 4.3 4.2 -2.6 -1.9

    90 days ago 9.4 9.3 25.0 21.7 15.3 13.6 4.3 4.2 -2.6 -1.8

    Fiscal Balance% of GDP

    Industry% variation

    Unemployment% of active pop.

    Consumption% variation

    Investment% variation

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    China November 2010FOCUSECONOMICS

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    0

    2

    4

    6

    Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep

    MaximumConsensusMinimum

    0

    2

    4

    6

    Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep

    MaximumConsensusMinimum

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    1995 2000 2005 2010

    China

    Asia (ex Japan)

    -4

    0

    4

    8

    12

    Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11

    China

    Asia (ex Japan)

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    1995 1998 2001 2004 2007

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    2000 2003 2006 2009

    1,000

    1,500

    2,000

    2,500

    3,000

    3,500

    Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul

    1,000

    2,000

    3,000

    4,000

    5,000

    6,000

    Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul

    Monetary Sector | Inflation, Money, Producer Prices and Stock Market

    19 | Producer Prices | % var.

    15 | Inflation | 1995 - 2014 | in % Inflation | annual avg. var. of consumer price index in %

    17 | Inflation 2010 | evolution of fcst

    21 | MSCI Broad China Index 22 | Stock Market | SSE

    20 | Money | % variation

    18 | Inflation 2011 | evolution of fcst

    16 | Inflation | Q1 07-Q4 11 | in %

    General:Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated. All

    monetary sector data are from the National Bureau of Statistics of China(NBS) and Peoples Bank of China (PBOC). See below for details. Fore-casts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

    15Inflation, annual average variation in consumer price index (CPI) in%. Source: NBS.16 Quarterly inflation, average variation in consumer price index (CPI) in%. Source: NBS.17Inflation, evolution of 2010 forecasts during the last 18 months.18Inflation, evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.19Producer price index, annual variation in % (eop). 2000-2009.Source: NBS.20Money, annual variation of M1 in %. 1995-2009. Source: PBOC.21Daily MSCI Broad China index in USD. From Jan. 2008 until end ofprevious month. Source: MSCI Barra.22Daily index levels, Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index(SSE). Jan. 2008 until end of previous month. Source: Shanghai Stock

    Exchange.

    Notes and sources

    Individual Forecasts 2010 2011Allianz 3.2 3.0

    ANZ 2.9 3.0

    Bank of China (Hong Kong) 3.5 2.8

    Capital Economics 2.8 2.0

    Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 3.0 3.7Core Pacific-Yamaichi 2.6 3.0

    Credit Suisse 3.0 4.3

    Daiwa Capital Markets 3.5 2.5

    DBS Bank 4.0 3.0

    Deutsche Bank 3.0 2.5

    Goldman Sachs 2.4 1.3

    Hang Seng Bank 3.0 2.5

    HSBC 2.9 2.5

    ING 2.5 2.5

    JPMorgan 2.8 2.7

    Lloyds TSB Corp. Mrkts. 3.8 4.4

    Morgan Stanley 2.8 3.0

    RBC Capital Markets - -

    Standard Chartered Bank 2.5 4.0UBS 3.0 3.5

    United Overseas Bank 3.9 4.7

    Wing Hang Bank 4.0 -

    SummaryMinimum 2.4 1.3

    Maximum 4.0 4.7

    Median 3.0 3.0

    Consensus 3.1 3.0History30 days ago 3.1 3.1

    60 days ago 3.2 3.1

    90 days ago 3.3 3.1

    Additional Forecasts

    IMF (Oct. 2010) 3.5 2.7ADB (Sep. 2010) 3.2 3.2

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    China November 2010FOCUSECONOMICS

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    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    1995 2000 2005 2010

    5

    6

    7

    8

    Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11

    4

    5

    6

    7

    Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep

    MaximumConsensusMinimum

    4

    5

    6

    7

    8

    Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep

    MaximumConsensusMinimum

    5

    6

    7

    8

    9

    1995 2000 2005 2010

    6.0

    6.5

    7.0

    7.5

    8.0

    Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11

    5.5

    6.0

    6.5

    7.0

    Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep

    MaximumConsensusMinimum

    5.5

    6.0

    6.5

    7.0

    Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep

    MaximumConsensusMinimum

    Monetary Sector | Interest Rate and Exchange Rate

    29 | CNY/USD 2010 | evolution of fcst

    27 | Exchange Rate | CNY per USD 28 | Exchange Rate | CNY per USD

    23 | Interest Rate | 1995 - 2014 | in % 24 | Interest Rate | Q1 07-Q4 11 | in %

    25 | Int. Rate 2010 | evolution of fcst 26 | Int. Rate 2011 | evolution of fcst

    30 | CNY/USD 2011 | evolution of forecasts

    Policy Interest Rate and Exchange Rate

    General:Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated. Allmonetary and external sector data are from the National Bureau of Statis-tics of China (NBS), the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC), State Adminis-tration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) and General Administration of Cus-toms of the Peoples Republic of China (Customs). See below for details.

    Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

    23Interest rate, 12-month Lending Rate in % (eop). Source: PBOC.24 Quarterly interest rate, 12-month Lending Rate in % (eop). Source:PBOC.

    25Interest rate, evolution of 2010 forecasts during the last 18 months.26Interest rate, evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.27Exchange rate,CNY per USD (eop). Source: SAFE.28 Quarterly exchange rate, CNY per USD (eop). Source: PBOC.29 Exchange rate, evolution of 2010 forecast during the last 18 months.30 Exchange rate, evolution of 2011 forecast during the last 18 months.31 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: SAFE.32 Trade balance, imports and exports, in USD bn. Source: Customs.33 International reserves, months of imports. Source: PBOC.34 Current account in USD bn., evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecastsduring the last 18 months.35 Exports, annual variation in %. Source: Customs.

    36 External debt as % of GDP. Source: SAFE.

    Notes and sources

    Individual Forecasts 2010 2011 2010 2011Allianz - - 6.60 6.30

    ANZ 5.85 - 6.62 6.21

    Bank of China (Hong Kong) - - 6.40 6.20Capital Economics 5.31 6.12 6.68 6.50

    Citigroup Global Markets Inc. - - 6.65 6.40

    Core Pacific-Yamaichi 5.49 6.03 6.78 6.57

    Credit Suisse 5.58 6.12 6.70 6.47

    Daiwa Capital Markets 5.58 5.58 6.45 6.20

    DBS Bank 5.58 - 6.63 -

    Deutsche Bank - - 6.65 6.40

    Goldman Sachs - - 6.56 6.24

    Hang Seng Bank 5.30 5.60 6.60 6.25

    HSBC 5.31 5.31 6.67 6.54

    ING - - 6 .50 6.00

    JPMorgan 5.85 5.85 6.60 6.20

    Lloyds TSB Corp. Mrkts. 5.60 6.90 6.61 6.38

    Morgan Stanley - - - -

    RBC Capital Markets 5.58 6.12 6.60 6.20

    Standard Chartered Bank 5.31 5.85 6.64 6.36

    UBS - - 6.55 6.20

    United Overseas Bank 5.85 - 6.77 -

    Wing Hang Bank 5.56 - 6.65 -

    SummaryMinimum 5.30 5.31 6.40 6.00

    Maximum 5.85 6.90 6.78 6.57

    Median 5.58 5.94 6.62 6.28

    Consensus 5.55 5.95 6.61 6.31History30 days ago 5.54 5.99 6.66 6.38

    60 days ago 5.61 5.95 6.64 6.36

    90 days ago 5.66 6.01 6.64 6.36

    Interest Rate Exchange Rate% CNY per USD

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    China November 2010FOCUSECONOMICS

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    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    1995 2000 2005 2010

    China

    Asia (ex Japan)

    0

    600

    1,200

    1,800

    2,400

    1995 2000 2005 2010

    Trade Balance

    Exports

    Imports

    -30

    -15

    0

    15

    30

    45

    1995 2000 2005 2010

    China

    Asia (ex Japan)

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    1995 2000 2005 2010

    China

    Asia (ex Japan)

    0

    15

    30

    45

    60

    1995 2000 2005 2010

    China

    Asia (ex Japan)

    250

    300

    350

    400

    450

    Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep

    20102011

    External Sector | Current Account, Trade and International Reserves

    34 | Current Account | evol. of fcst

    33 | Int. Reserves | months of imports

    36 | External Debt | % of GDP35 | Exports | annual variation in %

    32 | Trade Balance | USD billion31 | Current Account | % of GDP

    Individual Forecasts 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011Allianz 210 204 150 130 1,550 1,730 1,400 1,600 2,650 2,900

    ANZ - - - - - - - - - -

    Bank of China (Hong Kong) 267 301 200 208 1,346 1,556 1,146 1,348 2,685 2,861

    Capital Economics 320 380 220 - 1,680 - 1,460 - - -

    Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 290 309 173 191 1,547 1,771 1,374 1,581 2,650 2,975

    Core Pacific-Yamaichi - - - - - - - - - -

    Credit Suisse 321 334 230 245 1,495 1,630 1,265 1,385 - -

    Daiwa Capital Markets 139 175 92 76 1,370 1,507 1,278 1,431 2,635 2,859

    DBS Bank 245 210 144 109 1,622 1,947 1,478 1,838 2,550 2,700

    Deutsche Bank 227 190 167 135 1,562 1,781 1,395 1,646 2,550 2,850

    Goldman Sachs 321 - - - - - - - - -

    Hang Seng Bank - - 158 121 1,526 1,831 1,368 1,710 - -

    HSBC 250 260 175 180 1,502 1,720 1,327 1,540 2,550 2,700

    ING 228 231 101 93 1,467 1,746 1,366 1,653 2,700 2,900

    JPMorgan 278 276 269 273 1,519 1,756 1,250 1,484 2,766 3,146

    Lloyds TSB Corp. Mrkts. - - - - - - - - - -

    Morgan Stanley 343 304 - - - - - - - -

    RBC Capital Markets 338 326 - - - - - - - -

    Standard Chartered Bank 331 303 - - - - - - - -UBS 321 361 182 204 1,490 1,669 1,308 1,465 2,800 3,100

    United Overseas Bank 200 220 - - - - - - - -

    Wing Hang Bank - - 200 - 1,400 - 1,200 - - -

    SummaryMinimum 175 175 92 76 1,346 1,507 1,146 1,348 2,550 2,700

    Maximum 380 380 269 273 1,680 1,947 1,478 1,838 2,800 3,146

    Median 288 288 174 157 1,510 1,738 1,347 1,560 2,650 2,881

    Consensus 274 274 176 164 1,505 1,720 1,330 1,557 2,654 2,899History30 days ago 272 273 174 161 1,511 1,723 1,337 1,562 2,654 2,899

    60 days ago 267 268 161 147 1,492 1,702 1,330 1,555 2,690 2,956

    90 days ago 264 268 159 144 1,490 1,699 1,331 1,555 2,690 2,956

    Int. ReservesUSD bnUSD bn USD bn

    Exports ImportsCurrent Account Trade BalanceUSD bn USD bn

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    China November 2010FOCUSECONOMICS

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    India

    37%

    Other

    10%

    Indonesia

    7%

    Malaysia

    1%Korea

    2%

    China

    43%

    India

    15%

    Other

    14%

    Malaysia

    2%Korea

    10%

    China

    53%

    Indonesia6%

    OtherAsia

    15%

    Other

    25%Hong

    Kong &

    Macao14%

    USA18%

    Japan8%

    EU-2720%

    Other

    45%OtherAsia22%

    Hong

    Kong &Macao

    3%

    USA

    7%

    Japan

    12%

    EU-2711%

    Manufactur

    es

    93%

    Agricultural

    products

    3%

    Fuels and

    mining

    products

    4%

    Manufact

    ures

    65%

    Fuel and

    mining

    products28%

    Agricultural

    products

    8%

    Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings

    WeaknessesStrengths

    Political Data

    Population | %-share in Asia GDP | %-share in Asia

    ImportsExports

    Exports Imports

    Trade Structure

    Primary markets | share in %

    Primary products | share in %

    Economic StructureEconomic Infrastructure

    General Data China in the Region

    Fact Sheet

    Lack of comprehensive infra-structure

    Nascent legal system

    Financial system vulnerability

    Huge domestic market

    Large workforce

    Competitive labour costs

    Official name: People's Republic of China

    Capital: Beijing (13.3 m)

    Other cities: Shanghai (19.2 m)

    Chengdu (11.0 m)

    Chongqing (5.2 m)

    Area (km2): 9,596,960

    Population (million, 2009 est.): 1,338

    Pop. density (per km2, 2009 est.): 139

    Pop. growth rate (%, 2009 est.): 0.7

    Life expectancy (years, 2009 est.): 73.5

    Illiteracy rate (%, 2000): 9.1

    Language: Mandarin Chinese and other

    Measures: Metric & local systems

    Time: 8 hours ahead of GMT

    Prime Minister: Hu Jintao

    Last elections: 15 March 2008

    Next elections: March 2013

    Chairman of the PBOC: Zhou Xiaochuan

    Telecommunication (2009)

    Telephones - m ain lines (per 100 inhabitants ): 23.3Telephones - m obile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 55.5

    Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 28.5

    Broadband Subs cribers (per 100 inhabitants): 7.7

    Energy (2007) Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 70,796

    Prim ary Energy Cons um ption (trillion Btu): 77,808

    Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 3,041

    Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 2,835

    Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 3,912

    Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 7,582

    CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 6,247

    Transportation (2009) Airports: 482

    Railways (km): 77,834

    Roadways (km): 3,583,715

    Waterways (km): 110,000

    Chief Ports: Shanghai, Canton, Ningbo

    Agency Rating OutlookMoodys: A1 Positive

    S&P: A+ Stable

    Fitch Ratings: A+ Stable

    Services38%

    Agriculture

    16%

    Industry46%

    1999

    Industry

    48%

    Agricultur

    e

    11%

    Services41%

    2009

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    REAL SECTOR | Retail sales continue to grow at a strong pace in August

    In August, retail sales rose 14.7% over the same moth last year in volume

    terms. The figure was down from the revised 16.2% increase recorded in

    July (previously reported +16.0%), but overshot market expectations, which

    had seen retail sales slowing to 13.2%. Augusts reading represented the

    seventh consecutive month of double-digit growth, thus, reflecting a strong

    consumer sentiment.

    The August expansion was broad-based. That said, the main drivers behind

    the rise were sales of consumer durable goods, which increased by 28.0%

    year-on-year, as well as jewellery, watches and valuable gifts, which rose

    29.6%.

    Seasonally adjusted figures corroborate the strong growth suggested by theannual data, as retail sales increased 2.2% in the three-month period ending

    in August, compared to the previous period ending in May. Moreover, the trend

    continues to point up, as annual average growth in retail sales increased

    from 11.2% in July to 12.6% in August.

    A government spokesman stated that, looking ahead, positive developments

    in the labour market and income prospects, together with robust inbound

    tourism should continue to support retail businesses in the near term.

    Consensus Forecast panellists anticipate the economy will expand 5.9%

    this year, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last months forecast. For

    2011, the panel expects the economy to expand 4.5%.

    Hong KongOutlook improves

    Joan Enric DomeneEconomist

    Robust domestic demand due to improving labour market conditions

    continues to fuel economic growth. Recent data from the retail sector

    corroborate this notion, as retail sales rose a strong 14.7% over the

    same month last year. Furthermore, in spite of concerns regarding

    slowing global demand, exports continue to steam ahead, adding 35.7%

    in USD terms in August.

    Consensus Forecast panellists anticipate the economy will expand

    5.9% this year, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last months

    forecast. For 2011, the panel expects the economy to expand 4.5%.

    Inflation dropped from 3.0% in August to 2.6% in September. However,

    the government expects inflation to experience upward pressures in

    the coming months. Panellists expect inflation to average 2.7% this

    year, which is unchanged from last months projection. In 2011, the

    panel expects inflation to rise to 3.0%.

    Hong Kong

    LONG-TERM TRENDS | 5-year averages

    2000-04 2005-09 2010-14Population (million): 6.7 6.9 7.2

    GDP (USD bn): 165 200 264GDP per capita (USD): 24,430 28,791 36,934

    GDP growth (%): 4.4 4.0 4.6

    Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -2.4 2.7 0.8

    Inflation (%): -2.3 2.0 2.9

    Current Account (% of GDP): 7.5 11.6 7.6

    External Debt (% of GDP): 188 300 216

    -0.9

    1.2

    8.310.0

    11.4

    3.2

    31.5

    17.3

    12.4

    16.3

    11.9

    16.214.7

    -10.0

    0.0

    10.0

    20.0

    30.0

    40.0

    Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

    %

    YoY Annual average

    Retail Sales | variation in %

    Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average variation in %.Source: Census and Statistics Department Hong Kong and FocusEconomics cal-culations.

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    0.7

    2.1

    0.10.4

    0.1

    1.0

    -0.4

    0.4

    -0.2

    0.1

    -1.4

    -0.1

    0.3

    -2.0

    -1.0

    0.0

    1.0

    2.0

    3.0

    Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

    %

    -2.0

    0.0

    2.0

    4.0

    %

    Monthly (lef t scale) Annual (r ight scale)

    MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation moderates in September

    In September, consumer prices rose 0.3% over the previous month, which

    contrasted the 0.1% drop recorded in August. The increase was the result of

    higher prices for food (+0.9% month-on-month), housing (+0.5% mom) as

    well as clothing and footwear (+1.7% mom), which more than offset lower

    prices for electricity, gas and water (-0.3% mom).

    Despite the monthly price increase, annual inflation dropped from 3.0% in

    August to 2.6%, undershooting market expectations, which had seen inflation

    remaining at 3.0%. The decline in inflation was mainly due to the lower

    comparison base in August last year when the one-off electricity subsidy was

    paid by the government. However, annual average inflation inched up from

    1.9% in August to 2.0%.

    A government spokesman stated that consumer prices are subject to upward

    pressures, as wages and rentals continue to rise in tandem with the

    economic recovery. Higher import prices due to rising global food prices and

    a weaker US dollar, owing to the USD-HKD peg, may further fuel inflation.

    The government sees inflation averaging 2.3% this year.

    Consensus Forecast panellists anticipate inflation to average 2.7% this year,

    which is unchanged from last months forecast. For 2011, the panel expects

    annual average inflation to rise further to 3.0%.

    Inflation | Consumer Price Index

    Note: Annual and monthly variation of consumer price index in %.Source: Census and Statistics Department Hong Kong.

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    Economic Indicators | 2005 - 2014

    Annual Data 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Real Sector Population (million) 6.8 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.2

    GDP per capita (USD) 25,999 27,488 29,783 30,694 29,991 32,334 34,503 36,814 39,249 41,769

    GDP (USD bn) 178 190 207 215 211 229 245 263 282 302

    Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. in %) 7.1 7.0 6.4 2.2 -2.8 5.9 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.0

    Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 3.0 5.9 8.5 2.4 -0.4 5.5 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.0

    Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) 4.1 7.1 3.4 0.8 -1.8 9.9 8.1 5.0 4.9 5.2

    Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 2.5 2.2 -1.4 -6.7 -8.3 1.7 2.8 1.5 0.7 0.4

    Unemployment (eop, % of active population) 5.2 4.4 3.4 4.1 4.9 4.2 3.9 4.0 3.8 3.8

    Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 1.0 4.0 7.7 0.1 0.8 -0.6 -0.2 0.7 1.8 2.4

    Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M1 money in %) -10.3 13.1 25.4 4.7 39.6 - - - - -

    Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 1.4 2.3 3.8 2.1 1.3 - - - - -

    Inflation (CPI, annual average in %) 1.0 2.0 2.0 4.3 0.5 2.7 3.0 2.8 3.1 3.1

    Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %) 0.7 2.2 3.0 5.6 -1.7 - - - - -

    91-day HIBOR (%, eop) 4.23 3.90 3.45 0.95 0.14 0.42 0.93 1.80 2.64 2.97

    Stock Market (variation of HSI in %) 4.5 34.2 39.3 -48.3 52.0 - - - - -

    Exchange Rate (HKD per USD, eop) 7.75 7.77 7.80 7.75 7.76 7.79 7.79 7.79 7.79 7.79

    Exchange Rate (HKD per USD, average) 7.78 7.77 7.80 7.79 7.75 7.78 7.79 7.79 7.79 7.79

    External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 11.4 12.1 12.3 13.6 8.7 8.4 8.3 7.8 7.6 5.9Current Account Balance (USD bn) 20.2 22.9 25.5 29.3 18.3 19.2 20.3 20.6 21.6 17.7

    Trade Balance (USD bn) -7.6 -14.0 -19.7 -23.1 -26.9 -37.8 -46.9 -44.4 -42.4 -53.8

    Exports (USD bn) 290 318 346 365 322 377 414 438 473 512

    Imports (USD bn) 297 332 366 388 349 414 461 484 515 558

    Exports (annual variation in %) 11.2 9.7 8.9 5.6 -11.9 17.0 9.8 6.0 7.8 8.4

    Imports (annual variation in %) 10.2 11.6 10.2 6.2 -10.2 18.9 11.1 5.1 6.3 8.5

    International Reserves (USD bn) 124 133 153 183 256 283 310 311 349 373

    International Reserves (months of imports) 5.0 4.8 5.0 5.6 8.8 8.2 8.1 7.7 8.1 8.0

    Quarterly Data Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. in %) -2.4 2.5 8.0 6.5 5.7 4.3 4.1 5.1 4.5 4.1

    Inflation (CPI, annual average in %) -0.9 1.3 1.9 2.6 2.3 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8

    91-day HIBOR (%, eop) 0.22 0.14 0.15 0.57 0.33 0.42 0.41 0.46 0.57 0.93

    Monthly Data Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10Retail Sales (annual variation in %) 11.4 3.2 31.5 17.3 12.4 16.3 11.9 16.2 14.7 -

    Unemployment (eop, % of active population) 4.9 4.9 4.6 4.4 4.4 4.6 4.6 4.3 4.2 4.2

    Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.4 0.1 1.0 -0.4 0.4 -0.2 0.1 -1.4 -0.1 0.3

    Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 1.3 1.0 2.8 2.0 2.4 2.5 2.8 1.3 3.0 2.6

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    FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia

    -8

    -4

    0

    4

    8

    12

    1995 2000 2005 2010

    Hong KongAsia (ex Japan)World

    -10

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11

    Hong KongAsia (ex Japan)World

    -8

    -4

    0

    4

    8

    12

    1995 2000 2005 2010

    Hong Kong

    Asia (ex Japan)

    -20

    -10

    0

    10

    20

    1995 2000 2005 2010

    Hong Kong

    Asia (ex Japan)

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    Jun Sep Dec Mar

    Maximum

    Consensus

    Minimum

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep

    Maximum

    Consensus

    Minimum

    0

    2

    4

    6

    Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep

    2010

    2011

    0

    4

    8

    12

    Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep

    2010

    2011

    Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product

    3 | GDP 2010 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2011 | evolution of forecasts

    5 | Consumption | % variation 6 | Investment | % variation

    Real GDP growth in %2 | Real GDP | Q1 07-Q4 11 | % variation

    7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst 8 | Investment | evolution of forecasts

    General:Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated. All realsector data are from the Census and Statistics Department Hong Kong(C&SD) and the Treasury of Hong Kong (Treasury). See below for details.Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

    1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: C&SD.2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.

    Source: C&SD.3 GDP, evolution of 2010 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 Private consumption, annual variation in %. Source: C&SD.6 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %. Source: C&SD.7 Private consumption, change in 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last18 months.8 Gross fixed investment, change in 2010 and 2011 forecasts during thelast 18 months.9 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: C&SD.10 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: C&SD.11 Consolidated fiscal balance, % of GDP. Source: Treasury.12 Industrial production, evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during thelast 18 months.13 Unemployment, evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18months.14 Consolidated fiscal balance, evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts

    during the last 18 months.

    Notes and sources

    1 | Real GDP | 1995-2014 | % variation

    Individual Forecasts 2010 2011ANZ 5.3 4.3

    Bank of China (Hong Kong) 5.8 4.5

    Capital Economics 6.5 4.0

    Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 5.5 4.7

    Core Pacific-Yam aichi 5.5 4.6

    Credit Suisse 5.3 4.3

    Daiwa Capital Markets 3.5 2.5

    DBS Bank 7.0 4.5

    Deutsche Bank 6.2 5.0

    Goldman Sachs 6.0 5.0

    Hang Seng Bank 6.0 4.5

    HSBC 5.4 4.7

    ING 6.2 5.8

    JPMorgan 6.6 4.1

    Morgan Stanley 6.0 4.0

    Standard Chartered Bank 6.0 5.0

    UBS 6.0 4.3

    United Overseas Bank 5.5 4.5

    Wing Hang Bank 7.0 -SummaryMinimum 3.5 2.5

    Maximum 7.0 5.8

    Median 6.0 4.5

    Consensus 5.9 4.5History30 days ago 5.7 4.5

    60 days ago 5.6 4.5

    90 days ago 5.4 4.6

    Additional ForecastsGovernment (Sep. 2010) 5.0-6.0 -

    IMF(Oct. 2010) 6.0 4.7

    ADB (Sep. 2010) 5.8 4.3

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    -6

    -3

    0

    3

    6

    Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep

    20102011

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep

    20102011

    -4

    -2

    0

    2

    Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep

    20102011

    -20

    -10

    0

    10

    20

    1995 2000 2005 2010

    Hong Kong

    Asia (ex Japan)

    2

    4

    6

    8

    1995 2000 2005 2010

    Hong Kong

    Asia (ex Japan)-10

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    1995 2000 2005 2010

    Hong KongAsia (ex Japan)World

    Real Sector | Additional forecasts

    14 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst

    11 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP

    12 | Industry | evolution of forecasts

    9 | Industry | % variation

    13 | Unemployment | evolution of fcst

    10 | Unemployment | % of active pop.

    Individual Forecasts 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011ANZ - - - - - - - -

    Bank of China (Hong Kong) 5.6 5.3 10.5 9.8 4.0 3.5 - -

    Capital Economics 5.5 4.4 6.5 4.0 - - -1.0 0.0

    Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 4.5 3.7 9.3 4.5 4.5 4.1 0.5 1.0

    Core Pacific-Yamaichi - - - - 4.2 4.0 - -Credit Suisse 4.8 4.2 8.1 6.9 4.0 3.8 -1.4 -0.7

    Daiwa Capital Markets 4.6 3.7 12.7 12.0 - - -2.1 -1.6

    DBS Bank 6.3 4.6 14.1 9.8 4.0 3.5 - -

    Deutsche Bank 6.8 4.6 9.5 15.9 4.5 4.0 2.3 1.9

    Goldman Sachs - - - - - - - -

    Hang Seng Bank 5.2 4.0 13.0 7.8 4.0 4.0 - -

    HSBC 5.0 4.0 9.0 7.0 4.0 4.2 -1.4 -0.3

    ING 4.7 5.5 7.6 7.1 4.9 4.5 - -

    JPMorgan - - - - - - -1.5 -0.7

    Morgan Stanley 4.8 4.0 9.7 5.7 - - - -

    Standard Chartered Bank - - - - - - - -

    UBS 5.2 4.5 9.4 6.6 - - -1.4 -1.5

    United Overseas Bank - - - - 4.2 3.8 0.8 0.5

    Wing Hang Bank 8.0 - 9.9 - - - - -

    SummaryMinimum 4.5 3.7 6.5 4.0 4.0 3.5 -2.1 -1.6

    Maximum 8.0 5.5 14.1 15.9 4.9 4.5 2.3 1.9

    Median 5.2 4.3 9.5 7.1 4.1 4.0 -1.4 -0.3

    Consensus 5.5 4.4 9.9 8.1 4.2 3.9 -0.6 -0.2History30 days ago 5.3 4.3 9.5 8.1 4.4 4.0 -0.5 -0.2

    60 days ago 5.1 4.3 9.1 7.5 4.4 4.0 -0.5 -0.1

    90 days ago 5.2 4.4 8.4 6.8 4.4 4.0 -0.5 -0.1

    Consumption% variation

    Investment% variation

    Fiscal Balance% of GDP% of active pop.

    Unemployment

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    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    1995 2000 2005 2010

    Hong Kong

    Asia (ex Japan)

    -3

    0

    3

    6

    9

    Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11

    Hong Kong

    Asia (ex Japan)

    -3

    0

    3

    6

    Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep

    MaximumConsensusMinimum

    0

    3

    6

    9

    Jun Sep Dec Mar