Sample Report · OUTLOOK | Global outlook stabilizes on upward revisions to the Euro area and India...

CONSENSUS FORECAST

SUMMARY 2CALENDAR 14UNITED STATES 16CANADA 31JAPAN 44UNITED KINGDOM 59EURO AREA 74FRANCE 89GERMANY 102ITALY 114NOTES 126

ContributorsARNE POHLMAN Chief EconomistARMANDO CICCARELLI Head of ResearchRICARDO ACEVES Senior EconomistRICARD TORNÉ Senior EconomistOLGA COSCODAN Economist

CARL KELLY EconomistTERESA KERSTING EconomistDIRINA MANÇELLARI EconomistANGELA BOUZANIS EconomistCECILIA SIMKIEVICH Economist

ROBERT HILL Economist ERIC DENIS Economist MIRIAM DOWD Editor

PUBLICATION DATE 31 March 2015FORECASTS COLLECTED 24 March - 30 March 2015

INFORMATION AVAILABLE Up to and including 30 March 2015 NEXT EDITION 5 May 2015

Major EconomiesApril 2015

Sample Report

Contact us for the latest version:

info@focus‐economics.com

FOCUSECONOMICS Summary

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 2

April 2015

SummaryREAL SECTOR | Developed economies to lead growth in Q1The global economy expanded at the softest pace since Q2 2013 in Q4. According to a more complete set of data, the global economy expanded 2.7% in Q4 over the same quarter last year (previously expected: +2.8% year-on-year), which was down from the 2.9% increase tallied in Q3. FocusEconomics’ panel of analysts expects global growth to pick up slightly to 2.9% in Q1, mainly fuelled by a healthy performance in the Eurozone and in the United States. Conversely, economic dynamics will soften in emerging markets.

Recent economic data for the Euro area signal that growth regained momentum in the first quarter. The sharp weakening of the euro and the European Central Bank’s bond buying program are bolstering economic sentiment. Politics, however, remain the main risk to the outlook. In the United States, although the harsh winter and the appreciation of the dollar are likely to have taken a toll in Q1, the underlying upward trend remains strong, with the unemployment rate falling to a nearly-seven-year low in February. Despite China’s more supportive monetary policy, growth in the country is expected to moderate in the coming quarters in line with the government’s “new normal” approach to growth. Among the rest of the BRIC economies, growth will remain broadly stable in India, while economic activity in Brazil and Russia is expected to be lackluster.

OUTLOOK | Global outlook stabilizes on upward revisions to the Euro area and IndiaFocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts panelists maintained their global growth projections for 2015 at the previous month’s estimate of 3.1%. Panelists had revised down their forecast last month. The current projection mainly reflects that an upward revision to the outlook for the Eurozone offset downward revisions to the forecasts for Canada, Japan and the United States. The panel made no change to their projections for the BRIC economies nor for the United Kingdom. For 2016, an upward revision to the forecasts for the BRIC economies and the Euro area prompted the panel to upgrade their projection by 0.1 percentage points to 3.5%.

India is expected to be the best performer in 2015, slightly surpassing China. India’s stellar growth forecast for 2015 mainly reflects recent revisions to the national accounts methodology and historical data, which brought panelists to raise India’s growth projections by 0.6 percentage points to 7.1%. Among the other major economies, the United States and the United Kingdom will

Global outlook stable

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 163.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb

2015 2016

WorldEconomic Growth Change in GDP forecasts

Note: GDP, real annual variation in %, Q1 2012 - Q4 2016.

Note: GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Change in GDP Growth Forecasts20162015

-0.4 0.0 0.4 0.8

Russia

United States

Japan

G7

China

World

United Kingdom

BRIC

Euro area

India

-0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

Russia

Japan

China

United States

United Kingdom

World

G7

Euro area

BRIC

India

Note: Change between April 2015 and March 2015 in percentage points..

.Source: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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April 2015

likely grow the fastest, with a projected expansion of 3.0% and 2.6%, respectively. At the other end of the spectrum, Italy, Japan and France are likely to be the worst performers. Meanwhile, panelists remain pessimistic about the economic outlook for Brazil and Russia and they expect that both countries will experience a contraction in 2015.

UNITED STATES | 2015 outlook moderates on harsh winterThe U.S. economy has lost some momentum in the first quarter of the year. Harsh winter conditions have put a lid on consumer activity, with retail sales contracting for a third straight month in February. However, with unemployment now down to 5.5% and households’ effective budgets growing amid low gas prices, consumer demand should rebound and stoke broader economic growth in the months ahead. The low oil price environment has negatively impacted business investment in the energy sector, but investment in other sectors will be supported by accommodative financial conditions. Meanwhile, the pressure exerted on export growth by a strong U.S. dollar and uneven global demand is a long-term downside risk.

The U.S. is still expected to be the main engine of global growth this year. Our panel of analysts projects GDP growth of 3.0% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel sees GDP growth at 2.8%. (see details on page 16)

EURO AREA | Low oil prices and weak euro lift sentiment at the outset of the yearThe Eurozone economy improved in the fourth quarter of 2014. Although growth picked up just slightly over the third quarter, recent data provide further evidence that the bloc’s economy is gaining momentum at the outset of 2015. The composite PMI—a closely-watched leading indicator—rose to a nearly-four-year high in March and economic sentiment improved in the same month. Businesses and consumers are more upbeat as the euro’s slide supports export-oriented manufacturers and borrowers are benefitting from the European Central Bank’s ultra-loose monetary policy.

Growth prospects for the Eurozone economy in 2015 improved this month, reflecting tailwinds from low oil prices, a weak euro, easing fiscal austerity and stronger signals from the latest leading indicators. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists raised their projections for 2015 this month and now expect the Euro area economy to expand 1.3%. Our panel projects economic growth of 1.7% in 2016. (see details on page 74)

JAPAN | Slow progress in structural reforms continues to put a lid on economic outlook The economy rebounded in Q4 as the negative impact of the VAT hike faded and the weakening of the yen and lower oil prices bolstered business sentiment. More recent economic data suggest that private consumption is now supporting growth, reflecting improvements in the labor market and rising wages. Against this

1

2

3

4

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 162.6

2.8

3.0

3.2


2015 2016

United StatesEconomic Growth Change in GDP forecasts



-2

-1

0

1

2

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 161.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8


2015 2016

Euro AreaEconomic Growth Change in GDP forecasts



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April 2015

backdrop, consumer confidence hit a six-month high in February. Moreover, despite moderating, the manufacturing PMI remained in expansion mode in March for the 10th consecutive month.

Although the low oil price environment and a weak yen are supporting economic growth, the limited progress on implementing the much-needed structural reforms continues to dampen the country’s economic outlook. Our panel of analysts projects that GDP will expand 0.9% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month’s estimate. The panel projects that economic growth will pick up to 1.5% in 2016. (see details on page 44)

INFLATION | Global disinflationary pressures persistThe low oil price environment continues to drive down global inflation, with most of the economies posting multi-year low inflation figures in recent months. There are, however, some notable exceptions to this global disinflationary trend. In Brazil, the decision to raise fuel taxes, a severe drought that put a dent in hydroelectric power production, and the weakening of the real brought inflation to hit an over-nine-year high in February. Elsewhere in Latin America, inflation remains stubbornly high in Argentina and Venezuela primarily as a result of mounting domestic challenges. In Russia, a ruble in free fall and spillovers from the tit-for-tat sanctions with the West pushed inflation to a 13-year high at the outset of the year. Against this backdrop, FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists increased their global inflation projections for 2015 by 0.1 percentage points to 2.5%. For next year, panelists also revised upward their estimates by 0.1 percentage points and they now expect inflation to rise to 2.9% in 2016.

Ricard Torné

Senior Economist

-2

0

2

4

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 160.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6


2015 2016

JapanEconomic Growth Change in GDP forecasts



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April 2015

Quarterly Data | Economic Growth and Inflation | Q1 2014 - Q4 2016

GDP in G7 countries, ann.var. in %

Inflation in G7 countries, ann. var. of CPI in %

GDP in BRIC countries, ann.var. in %

Inflation in BRIC countries, ann. var. of CPI in %

-3

0

3

6

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

World G7 United StatesJapan United Kingdom Euro area

-2

0

2

4

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

World G7 United StatesJapan United Kingdom Euro area

-5

0

5

10

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

World BRIC Brazil

Russia India China

0

4

8

12

16

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

World BRIC Brazil

Russia India China

Gross domestic productann. var. in % Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4World 3.2 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1G7 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2

United States 1.9 2.6 2.7 2.4 3.3 3.1 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8Canada 2.1 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.3 1.9 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.3Japan 2.4 -0.4 -1.4 -0.8 -1.3 0.8 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.5United Kingdom 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3Euro area 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.6

France 0.8 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5Germany 2.6 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.3 1.6 2.0 2.2 1.8 2.3 1.8 1.7Italy -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2

BRIC 5.6 5.3 5.4 5.2 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.5 5.0 5.3 5.4 5.5Brazil 1.9 -0.9 -0.2 -0.4 -1.1 -1.0 -0.6 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.8 2.3Russia 0.9 0.8 0.7 -0.4 -4.1 -4.5 -4.7 -3.7 -0.7 0.4 0.9 1.5India 6.7 6.5 8.2 7.5 7.4 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.5 7.7 7.8 7.8China 7.4 7.5 7.3 7.3 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.8

20152014 2016

Inflation, ann. var. of consumer prices in % Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4World 2.8 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.5 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.0G7 1.3 1.9 1.7 1.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8

United States 1.4 2.1 1.8 1.2 -0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2Canada 1.4 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.0 0.7 1.0 1.4 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.1Japan 1.5 3.6 3.3 2.6 2.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1United Kingdom 1.7 1.7 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.7Euro area 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3

France 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2Germany 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.5Italy 0.5 0.4 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0

BRIC 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.0 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.5 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8Brazil 6.2 6.5 6.7 6.4 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.5 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.6Russia 6.9 7.8 8.0 11.4 15.2 15.3 14.6 12.3 7.8 7.5 7.5 7.3India 8.4 8.2 7.7 4.8 5.6 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.8 5.6 5.5China 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.3

20152014 2016

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April 2015

Quarterly Data | Interest Rates | Q1 2015 - Q4 2016

Policy Rate | US, Euro area and Japan in % 10-Year Bond Yield | US, Euro area and Japan in %

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

United States Japan Euro area

0

1

2

3

4

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

United States Japan Euro area

Policy Ratein % Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4World GDP-weighted average 2.26 2.28 2.33 2.39 2.41 2.48 2.59 2.69G7 GDP-weighted average 0.22 0.25 0.36 0.47 0.62 0.76 0.97 1.17

United States Federal funds target rate 0.25 0.31 0.52 0.74 1.03 1.27 1.65 1.99Canada Overnight funding rate 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.84 1.04 1.25 1.52Japan Overnight call rate 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08United Kingdom Bank rate 0.50 0.51 0.55 0.66 0.78 0.98 1.16 1.39Euro area ECB refinancing rate 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

BRIC GDP-weighted average 8.11 7.99 7.79 7.37 7.06 6.83 6.68 6.62Brazil Selic overnight rate 12.75 12.88 12.91 12.92 12.41 12.05 11.61 11.50Russia 1-week deposit rate 15.67 15.50 14.46 11.64 10.00 8.71 8.07 7.82India Repo rate 7.50 7.31 7.24 7.16 7.10 7.08 7.06 7.00China 1-year deposit rate 2.50 2.33 2.25 2.27 2.24 2.24 2.23 2.21

3-Month Benchmark Ratein % Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4World GDP-weighted average 2.28 2.32 2.39 2.46 2.48 2.53 2.63 2.76G7 GDP-weighted average 0.26 0.34 0.47 0.60 0.76 0.85 1.05 1.30

United States 3-month USD LIBOR 0.30 0.46 0.71 0.97 1.24 1.39 1.73 2.17Canada 3-month T-bill 0.75 0.87 0.89 0.81 0.93 1.08 1.26 1.62Japan 3-month Call Rate 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.15 0.18 0.18United Kingdom 3-month GBP LIBOR 0.57 0.59 0.67 0.81 1.00 1.22 1.42 1.62Euro area 3-month EURIBOR 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.06

10-Year Bond Yieldin % Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4World GDP-weighted average 2.80 2.88 2.94 3.00 2.96 3.01 3.08 3.16G7 GDP-weighted average 1.36 1.51 1.63 1.76 1.87 1.98 2.13 2.32

United States 1.98 2.21 2.36 2.51 2.62 2.75 2.93 3.19Canada 1.37 1.63 1.80 2.05 2.20 2.32 2.53 2.82Japan 0.38 0.41 0.46 0.53 0.52 0.56 0.65 0.70United Kingdom 1.58 1.77 1.94 2.23 2.33 2.48 2.66 2.82Euro area GDP-weighted average 0.13 0.14 0.15 0.16 0.18 0.19 0.21 0.23France 0.57 0.55 0.66 0.68 0.80 0.88 0.91 1.08Germany 0.26 0.39 0.47 0.56 0.77 0.88 1.00 1.04Italy 1.32 1.38 1.43 1.45 1.50 1.64 1.86 2.00

2016

2016

2016

2015

2015

2015

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April 2015

Quarterly Data | Exchange Rates | Q1 2015 - Q4 2016

USD per GBP

USD per EUR

CNY per USD

JPY per USD

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

1.45

1.55

1.65

1.75

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

60

80

100

120

140

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

6.0

6.1

6.2

6.3

6.4

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

United StatesKey exchange rates Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4United States USD per EUR 1.09 1.05 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.06 1.07Canada CAD per USD 1.26 1.26 1.26 1.27 1.26 1.24 1.22 1.22Japan JPY per USD 120.8 122.7 124.5 127.0 127.2 127.7 128.8 131.0United Kingdom USD per GBP 1.49 1.49 1.49 1.48 1.48 1.49 1.49 1.50Brazil BRL per USD 3.22 3.14 3.12 2.97 3.05 3.07 3.09 3.07Russia RUB per USD 64.7 65.0 63.0 61.0 61.2 60.7 59.4 58.5India INR per USD 62.1 62.5 62.7 62.8 62.8 62.8 62.7 62.7China CNY per USD 6.22 6.24 6.24 6.25 6.22 6.21 6.21 6.21

Euro areaKey exchange rates Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Canada CAD per EUR 1.37 1.33 1.31 1.31 1.32 1.31 1.30 1.31Japan JPY per EUR 131 129 129 132 133 135 137 140United Kingdom GBP per EUR 0.73 0.71 0.70 0.70 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71Brazil BRL per EUR 3.50 3.31 3.23 3.08 3.20 3.25 3.29 3.29Russia RUB per EUR 70.3 68.5 65.3 63.3 64.3 64.2 63.3 62.5India INR per EUR 67.6 65.8 65.0 65.2 65.9 66.4 66.8 67.1China CNY per EUR 6.76 6.57 6.46 6.49 6.53 6.57 6.61 6.64

JapanKey exchange rates Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Canada JPY per CAD 96.1 97.2 98.5 100.3 101.2 102.7 105.6 107.0United Kingdom JPY per GBP 180 182 185 188 188 190 192 196Brazil JPY per BRL 37.6 39.1 39.9 42.8 41.8 41.5 41.7 42.6Russia JPY per RUB 1.87 1.89 1.98 2.08 2.08 2.10 2.17 2.24India JPY per INR 1.94 1.96 1.98 2.02 2.02 2.03 2.05 2.09China JPY per CNY 19.4 19.7 20.0 20.3 20.5 20.6 20.7 21.1

2016

2016

2016

2015

2015

2015

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April 2015

GDP Growth, 2015

Notes and sources

Note: Gross domestic product, real annual variation in %. All data for India refer to fiscal year ending in March.Sources: National statistical institutes.

Private Consumption Growth, 2015

Notes and sources

Note: Private consumption, real annual variation in %. China data show estimates for real increases based on nominal data.Sources: National statistical institutes.

Gross Domestic Product, annual variation in %

Private Consumption, annual variation in %

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019World 2.6 2.7 3.1 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5G7 1.5 1.7 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1

United States 2.2 2.4 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6Canada 2.0 2.5 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1Japan 1.6 0.0 0.9 1.5 1.0 1.1 1.1United Kingdom 1.7 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3Euro area -0.4 0.9 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5

France 0.4 0.4 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.7Germany 0.1 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.4Italy -1.7 -0.4 0.5 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3

BRIC 6.0 5.6 5.3 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.7Brazil 2.5 0.0 -0.6 1.5 2.1 2.4 2.7Russia 1.3 0.6 -4.2 0.5 1.7 2.2 2.2India 6.9 7.4 7.1 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.7China 7.7 7.4 7.0 6.8 6.6 6.4 6.0

-6 -3 0 3 6 9

Russia

Brazil

Italy

Japan

France

Euro area

Germany

Canada

G7

United Kingdom

United States

World

BRIC

China

India

-2

0

2

4

6

8

World G7 United States Japan Euro area BRIC China

2013 2014 2015 2016

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019World 3.0 2.7 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6G7 1.6 1.6 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.1

United States 2.4 2.5 3.3 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.6Canada 2.5 2.8 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5Japan 2.1 -1.2 0.3 1.3 0.6 0.7 0.9United Kingdom 1.7 2.0 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.1Euro area -0.7 1.0 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4

France 0.3 0.6 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2Germany 0.8 1.2 2.0 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.2Italy -2.8 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1

BRIC 7.0 6.0 5.7 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.5Brazil 2.6 0.9 0.0 1.3 2.1 2.6 3.1Russia 5.0 1.9 -5.7 0.8 2.4 2.9 2.9India 6.2 6.5 6.8 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.9China 8.7 7.7 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.3 7.0

-6 -3 0 3 6 9

Russia

Brazil

Japan

Italy

France

Euro area

Germany

Canada

G7

United Kingdom

World

United States

BRIC

India

China

-3

0

3

6

9


2013 2014 2015 2016

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April 2015

Investment Growth, 2015

Notes and sources

Note: Gross fixed investment, real annual variation in %. In the U.S. and Japan, data refer to non-residential fixed investment. In China, nominal urban fixed-asset investment. Sources: National statistical institutes.

Investment, annual variation in %2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

World 4.0 4.7 4.8 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.1G7 1.3 4.2 3.4 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.1

United States 3.1 6.3 5.2 5.7 5.4 5.4 5.3Canada 0.4 0.4 -0.5 1.5 3.1 3.6 3.7Japan 0.6 3.8 1.0 2.9 2.6 2.4 2.3United Kingdom 3.4 6.8 4.5 5.0 4.5 3.9 3.4Euro area -2.5 1.0 1.2 2.6 2.2 2.1 2.0

France -0.8 -1.6 -0.4 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3Germany -0.6 3.4 2.0 3.6 3.4 3.0 2.7Italy -5.8 -3.2 0.0 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.3

BRIC 13.1 9.0 9.9 11.2 11.3 11.3 11.2Brazil 5.2 -6.9 -4.7 3.0 3.6 4.2 4.8Russia 1.4 -2.5 -9.4 1.1 3.3 3.6 3.7India 3.0 3.6 5.8 7.8 8.0 8.4 8.7China 19.6 15.7 15.2 14.4 14.2 13.9 13.6

-10 0 10 20

Russia

Brazil

Canada

France

Italy

Japan

Euro area

Germany

G7

United Kingdom

World

United States

India

BRIC

China

-5

0

5

10

15

20


2013 2014 2015 2016

Export Growth, 2015

Notes and sources

Note: Exports of goods and services, real annual variation in %.Sources: National statistical institutes.

Exports of Goods and Services, annual variation in %2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

G7 2.3 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.3 4.3United States 3.1 3.2 3.4 4.1 4.5 4.5 4.5Canada 2.0 5.4 4.6 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.9Japan 1.5 8.2 5.8 4.5 5.1 4.9 4.4United Kingdom 1.5 0.4 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.4Euro area 2.0 3.7 4.2 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.3

France 2.4 2.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.0Germany 1.6 3.9 5.0 5.0 4.4 4.1 4.0Italy 0.5 2.7 3.7 4.1 3.5 3.1 3.1

3 4 5 6

United States

Italy

UnitedKingdom

France

G7

Euro area

Canada

Germany

Japan

0

2

4

6

8

10

G7 United States Japan Euro area United Kingdom

2013 2014 2015 2016

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April 2015

Import Growth, 2015

Notes and sources

Note: Imports of goods and services, real annual variation in %.Sources: National statistical institutes.

Imports of Goods and Services, annual variation in %2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

G7 1.5 3.9 4.2 4.9 4.4 4.3 4.0United States 1.1 4.0 4.6 5.5 4.8 4.7 4.2Canada 1.3 1.7 2.5 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.2Japan 3.0 7.2 3.3 4.1 4.4 4.0 3.9United Kingdom 1.4 1.8 3.3 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8Euro area 1.2 3.8 4.2 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.8

France 1.9 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.1Germany 3.1 3.4 5.2 5.6 4.7 4.5 4.7Italy -2.3 1.8 2.8 3.8 3.4 3.2 3.0

2 3 4 5 6

Canada

Italy

Japan

UnitedKingdom

France

G7

Euro area

United States

Germany

0

2

4

6

8

G7 United States Japan Euro area United Kingdom

2013 2014 2015 2016

Industrial Production Growth, 2015

Notes and sources

Note: Industrial production, real annual variation in %. In China, data refer to industrial output of businesses with annual income above 20 million CNY.Sources: National statistical institutes.

Industrial Production, annual variation in %2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

World 2.2 3.0 3.3 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9G7 1.1 2.7 2.6 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.4

United States 2.9 4.2 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.1Canada 1.8 3.9 1.5 2.0 2.3 2.8 2.8Japan -0.6 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.0 1.7 1.5United Kingdom -0.6 1.6 1.2 1.6 1.3 1.1 0.9Euro area -0.7 0.7 1.5 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.5

France -0.5 -1.0 0.7 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7Germany 0.1 1.5 2.0 2.4 1.8 1.5 1.4Italy -3.1 -0.7 0.2 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.7

BRIC 6.2 5.4 5.7 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2Brazil 2.1 -3.3 -2.4 1.7 2.1 2.5 2.8Russia 0.4 1.6 -1.5 1.3 2.1 2.3 2.5India -0.1 3.7 5.7 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.7China 9.7 8.3 7.9 7.3 7.2 7.1 7.0

-3 0 3 6 9

Brazil

Russia

Italy

France

United Kingdom

Euro area

Canada

Germany

Japan

G7

World

United States

India

BRIC

China

-3

0

3

6

9

12


2013 2014 2015 2016

Sample Report





April 2015

Unemployment, 2015

Notes and sources

Note: All G7 countries and Brazil show average unemployment rate for the year. Russia shows end-of-year unemployment. China refers to end-of-year urban unemployment. India has no official unemployment statistics. Sources: National statistical institutes.

Fiscal Balance, 2015

Notes and sources

Note: Fiscal balance as % of GDP.Sources: National statistical institutes and finance ministries.

Unemployment, % of active population

Fiscal Balance, % of GDP

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019World 7.2 6.7 6.2 5.9 5.8 5.6 5.5G7 7.4 6.7 6.0 5.7 5.7 5.5 5.5

United States 7.4 6.2 5.4 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.9Canada 7.1 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.2 6.1 5.9Japan 4.0 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3United Kingdom 7.6 6.2 5.4 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3Euro area 12.0 11.6 11.1 10.7 10.2 9.9 9.5


BRIC 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.4Brazil 5.4 4.8 5.9 6.3 6.1 6.0 5.9Russia 5.5 5.2 6.4 6.3 6.0 5.7 5.5India - - - - - - -China 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019World -3.3 -2.9 -2.9 -2.6 -2.3 -2.1 -1.9G7 -4.2 -3.3 -3.0 -2.8 -2.4 -2.2 -2.0

United States -4.1 -2.8 -2.6 -2.7 -2.6 -2.5 -2.5Canada -0.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3Japan -9.1 -8.3 -6.9 -6.5 -5.1 -4.7 -4.3United Kingdom -5.8 -5.3 -4.4 -2.9 -2.0 -1.2 -0.5Euro area -2.9 -2.6 -2.3 -2.0 -1.4 -1.2 -1.1

France -4.1 -4.4 -4.2 -3.9 -3.0 -2.6 -2.3Germany 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4Italy -2.8 -3.0 -2.8 -2.4 -1.7 -1.5 -1.5

BRIC -2.2 -2.6 -2.9 -2.8 -2.6 -2.4 -2.1Brazil -3.3 -6.7 -5.0 -4.1 -3.9 -3.6 -3.3Russia -0.6 -0.6 -2.4 -1.6 -1.2 -1.0 -0.8India -4.6 -4.2 -4.0 -3.7 -3.5 -3.3 -3.1China -1.9 -1.8 -2.4 -2.5 -2.4 -2.2 -1.9

-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2

Japan

Brazil

United Kingdom

France

India

G7

BRIC

World

Italy

United States

China

Russia

Euro area

Canada

Germany

-12

-8

-4

0


2013 2014 2015 2016

3 5 7 9 11 13

Japan

China

BRIC

United States

United Kingdom

Brazil

G7

World

Russia

Germany

Canada

France

Euro area

Italy

2.5

5.0

7.5

10.0

12.5


2013 2014 2015 2016

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April 2015

Inflation, 2015

Notes and sources

Note: Annual average variation of consumer price index in %. Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

Policy Rate, 2015

Notes and sources

Note: Policy interest rates, end of period. For details see page 6. Sources: National central banks.

Inflation, annual average variation of consumer prices in %

Policy Interest Rate, %

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019World 2.7 3.0 2.5 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8G7 1.3 1.5 0.4 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.0



BRIC 4.5 3.9 3.8 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7Brazil 6.2 6.3 7.4 5.9 5.4 5.2 4.9Russia 6.8 7.8 14.2 8.2 6.8 5.8 5.2India 9.5 6.8 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.5China 2.6 2.0 1.7 2.1 2.5 2.9 3.0

0

2

4

6


2013 2014 2015 2016

-5 0 5 10 15

Euro area

Italy

France

Germany

United States

G7

United Kingdom

Japan

Canada

China

World

BRIC

India

Brazil

Russia

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019World 2.13 2.44 2.36 2.68 3.08 3.28 3.56G7 0.29 0.24 0.51 1.29 1.88 2.06 2.52


BRIC 4.92 6.25 4.82 4.35 4.41 4.48 4.34Brazil 10.00 11.75 12.92 11.50 10.58 9.83 9.08Russia 5.50 17.00 11.64 7.82 7.29 6.65 5.80India 8.00 7.50 7.10 7.00 6.75 6.59 6.44China 3.00 2.75 2.27 2.21 2.59 2.98 3.02

0 3 6 9 12 15

Euro area

Japan

G7

United Kingdom

United States

Canada

China

World

BRIC

India

Russia

Brazil

0

2

4

6

8


2013 2014 2015 2016

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April 2015

10-Year Bond Yield, 2015

Notes and sources

Note: 10-year bond yield in %, end of period. Sources: National central banks.

Current Account Balance, 2015

Notes and sources

Note: Current account balance as % of GDP. Sources: National statistical institutes and FocusEconomics calculations.

10-Year Bond Yield, %

Current Account Balance, % of GDP2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

World 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0G7 -0.9 -0.7 -0.7 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3

United States -2.4 -2.4 -2.3 -2.5 -2.2 -2.0 -1.8Canada -3.0 -2.2 -2.7 -2.1 -2.1 -2.0 -1.8Japan 0.7 0.5 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.6United Kingdom -4.5 -5.1 -4.1 -3.6 -3.1 -2.7 -2.2Euro area 2.0 2.2 2.7 2.6 2.2 2.1 1.9

France -1.3 -0.7 -1.0 -1.0 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6Germany 6.5 7.5 7.6 7.3 6.3 6.1 6.0Italy 1.0 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.8

BRIC 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.7Brazil -3.6 -4.1 -4.0 -3.7 -3.5 -3.4 -3.3Russia 1.5 2.8 3.7 3.2 2.8 2.5 2.4India -1.7 -1.4 -1.1 -1.6 -1.8 -1.9 -2.0China 1.9 2.1 2.6 2.3 2.1 1.8 1.7

-6 -3 0 3 6 9

United Kingdom

Brazil

Canada

United States

India

France

G7

BRIC

Japan

Italy

China

Euro area

Russia

Germany

-4

-2

0

2

4

G7 United States Japan Euro area BRIC China

2013 2014 2015 2016

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019G7 2.61 1.58 1.86 2.45 2.85 3.06 3.35



India 8.81 7.90 7.47 7.09 7.08 7.05 7.02China 4.63 3.65 3.47 3.48 3.57 3.69 3.86

0

2

4

6

8

10

G7 United States Japan Euro area China India

2013 2014 2015 2016 0 2 4 6 8

Japan

Germany

France

Italy

Euro area

G7

Canada

United Kingdom

United States

China

India

Sample Report



FOCUSECONOMICS


April 2015

Economic Release Calendar

Date Country Event31 March Canada January Monthly GDP31 March Euro area February Unemployment31 March Euro area March Consumer Prices (*)31 March Italy March Consumer Prices (*)31 March United States March Consumer Confidence31 March United States January S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index1 April Italy March Markit/ADACI Manufacturing PMI1 April Japan Q1 2015 Tankan Business Confidence1 April United Kingdom March Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI1 April United States March ISM Manufacturing3 April United States March Unemployment6 April Canada March Ivey PMI7 April Japan Central Bank Meeting7 April Switzerland February Retail Sales8 April Switzerland March Consumer Prices9 April Germany February Industrial Production9 April Germany February Merchandise Trade9 April United Kingdom Central Bank Meeting10 April Canada March Housing Starts10 April France February Industrial Production10 April United Kingdom February Industrial Production13 April Italy February Industrial Production13 April Japan February Machinery Orders14 April Canada March Teranet House Price Index14 April Euro area February Industrial Production14 April Italy March Consumer Prices 14 April United Kingdom March Consumer Prices14 April United States March Retail Sales15 April Canada Central Bank Meeting15 April Euro area Central Bank Meeting15 April France March Consumer Prices17 April Canada March Consumer Prices17 April Euro area March Consumer Prices17 April Japan March Consumer Confidence17 April United Kingdom April Unemployment17 April United States March Consumer Prices22 April Japan March Merchandise Trade22 April United Kingdom Minutes of Central Bank Meeting23 April Euro area April Markit Composite PMI (*)23 April France April Markit Composite PMI (*)23 April France April Business Confidence23 April Germany April Markit Composite PMI (*)23 April Germany May Consumer Confidence23 April Japan April Markit/JMMA Manufacturing PMI

(*) Preliminary estimate. (**) Approximate date.

Calendar

Sample Report



FOCUSECONOMICS


April 2015

Economic Release Calendar

Date Country Event24 April Germany April Business Confidence28 April France April Consumer Confidence28 April United Kingdom Q1 2015 National Accounts (*)28 April United States April Consumer Confidence28 April United States Febuary S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index29 April Euro area April Economic Sentiment29 April Germany April Consumer Prices (*)29 April Italy April Consumer Confidence29 April Italy April Business Confidence29 April United States Central Bank Meeting 29 April United States Q1 2015 National Accounts (first estimate)30 April Canada February Monthly GDP30 April Euro area March Unemployment30 April Euro area April Consumer Prices (*)30 April Italy April Consumer Prices (*)30 April Japan Central Bank Meeting30 April Japan March Industrial Production30 April Switzerland April KOF Indicator30 April United Kingdom April Nationwide House Price Index (**)30 April United Kingdom April GfK NOP Consumer Confidence (**)1 May Italy April Markit/ADACI Manufacturing PMI1 May Japan March Consumer Prices1 May United Kingdom April Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI1 May United States April ISM Manufacturing2 May United States April Consumer Prices

(*) Preliminary estimate. (**) Approximate date.

Sample Report



FOCUSECONOMICS United States


April 2015

United States

REAL SECTOR | ISM inches down in February, flash PMI ticks up to five-month high in MarchIn February, the ISM manufacturing index decreased from the 53.5% recorded in January to 52.9%. The result was roughly in line with market expectations of a moderation to 53.0% and marked the lowest reading in just over a year. However, the index remains above the 50.0% threshold that indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector.

The index was mainly dragged down by declines in the production and employment categories. New orders also slowed compared to the previous month. In contrast, inventories ticked up in January.

More recent survey data point to a moderate strengthening in the manufacturing sector in March. The Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI came in at 55.3 in March, which was just above the 55.1 tallied in February and marked the highest point since October 2014. Manufacturing output expanded at the fastest pace in six months in March. New orders increased the most in five months, although new work from abroad was down mainly due to the strengthening U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, March data show ongoing job creation

Outlook moderates

LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages

Carl KellyEconomist

2011-13 2014-16 2017-19Population (million): 314 321 327GDP (USD bn): 16,150 18,111 20,784GDP per capita (USD): 51,399 56,487 63,594GDP growth (%): 2.0 2.7 2.6Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -6.4 -2.7 -2.5Public Debt (% of GDP): 101.2 104.3 104.8Inflation (%): 2.2 1.4 2.2Current Account (% of GDP): -2.7 -2.4 -2.0

United States

The U.S. economy has lost some momentum in the first quarter of the year. Harsh winter conditions have put a lid on consumer activity, with retail sales contracting for a third straight month in February. However, with unemployment now down to 5.5% and households’ effective budgets growing amid low gas prices, consumer demand should rebound and stoke broader economic growth in the months ahead. The low oil price environment has negatively impacted business investment in the energy sector, but investment in other sectors will be supported by accommodative financial conditions. Meanwhile, the pressure exerted on export growth by a strong U.S. dollar and uneven global demand is a long-term downside risk.

The U.S. is still expected to be the main engine of global growth this year. FocusEconomics panelists forecast GDP growth of 3.0% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel sees GDP growth at 2.8%.

Annual consumer prices were flat in February, which was up from the 0.1% annual decline registered in January. At its 17–18 March policy meeting, the Fed removed the phrase “patient” from its guidance as expected, but reiterated that an initial interest rate hike is still data-dependent. Lower growth, inflation and interest rate projections suggest that the pace of rate hikes after take-off will be slower than expected. The FocusEconomics panel expects inflation to average 0.4% in 2015 and 2.2% in 2016.

ISM Manufacturing Index

Note: Composite index in the Manufacturing Report on Business (PMI). Readings above 50% indicate an expansion in the manufacturing sector while readings below 50% point to a contraction.Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM).

45

50

55

60

Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15

%

Sample Report





April 2015

in the manufacturing sector, with higher levels of employment being registered for 21 consecutive months.

Markit concluded that, “manufacturing regained further momentum from the slowdown seen at the turn of the year, with output, new orders and employment growth all accelerating in March. The upturn in order books in particular gives some reassurance that the pace of economic growth is likely to pick up as we move towards the summer.”

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect that industrial production will increase 3.6% this year, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, panelists see industrial production expanding 3.4%.

The Federal Reserve expects economic growth to range between 2.3% and 2.7% in both 2015 and 2016. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to expand 3.0% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel expects the economy to expand 2.8%.

REAL SECTOR | Retail sales fall for third straight month in FebruaryIn February, retail sales decreased 0.6% over the previous month, in nominal terms. The print followed the 0.8% decrease recorded in January and contrasted market expectations of a 0.3% increase. Retail sales had not registered three consecutive monthly contractions for more than five years. Analysts point to the cold winter weather as the main factor behind the falling consumer activity and suggest that first quarter GDP could suffer as a result. Retail sales are a good indicator for the evolution of consumer spending, a key part of economic growth in the United States, as it accounts for over two thirds of overall GDP.

February’s result was driven by a drop in sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers as well as building material and garden supply stores. Sales were also down at department stores and electronics and appliance retailers. Consumers are not spending more despite having additional discretionary income derived from low gasoline prices.

Retail sales excluding cars and gas—a closely watched subcategory of the retail trade index—decreased 0.2% in February over the previous month. The result followed the 0.1% decrease recorded in January and contrasted the 0.5% increase expected by the market.

Retail sales rose 1.7% in annual terms in February, which came in well below the 3.6% tallied in January. However, the annual trend was steady, with annual average growth in retail sales holding at January’s 4.1%.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect private consumption to grow 3.3% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel sees private consumption increasing 2.9%.

REAL SECTOR | Payrolls extend strong streak and unemployment falls to 5.5%Non-farm payrolls grew by 295,000 in February, which was above January’s downward revised increase of 239,000 (previously reported: +257,000). Moreover, the reading overshot market expectations of a 230,000 increase in

Retail Sales | variation in %

Note: Month-on-month and year-on-year variation of nominal retail sales in %.Source: United States Census Bureau.

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15

Month-on-month (left scale)

Year-on-year (right scale)

%%

Sample Report





April 2015

payrolls and marked the 12th consecutive month of gains above 200,000, the longest such streak since the mid-1990s.

The private sector was almost entirely responsible for new hiring, having added 288,000 jobs in February. The largest gains were registered in leisure and hospitality, professional business services, education and health services, retail, and construction. The public sector gained 7,000 jobs. The U.S. economy now has 2.8 million more people employed than at the pre-crisis January 2008 peak.

The unemployment rate—derived from a different survey—decreased from 5.7% in January to 5.5% in February, which marked the best result since May 2008. The market had expected the unemployment rate to fall to 5.6%. February’s result brings the unemployment rate into the Fed’s target zone of 5.2%-5-5%, reflects ongoing economic growth and will put further pressure on the Fed to begin raising interest rates. However, the labor market may not be as strong as the headline numbers suggest. Labor participation rates still remain notably low and while average hourly earnings inched up in February, wage growth has been largely stagnant over the past months.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect unemployment to average 5.4% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel expects the unemployment rate to drop to 5.0%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Consumer prices flat in February after worrisome decline in January, core inflationary pressures still weakIn February, consumer prices increased 0.2% over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms. The print, which was in line with market expectations, marked a turnaround from the six-year low 0.7% decrease tallied in January. Moreover, it was the first increase in four months and the highest figures since May of last year. February’s reading was mainly driven by an increase in energy prices, including gasoline, which contrasted the steep drop recorded in this category the previous month.

Annual consumer prices were flat in February, which was up from the 0.1% annual decline seen in January, and therefore exited deflationary territory. Meanwhile, core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy prices, increased 0.2% over the previous month, which matched the result observed in January. The figure was just above market expectations of a 0.1% increase. Annual average core inflation in February held at January’s 1.8%.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect inflation to average 0.4% in 2015, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel expects inflation to average 2.2%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Fed drops “patient” from guidance, but first rate hike still depends on economic developments At its 17–18 March policy meeting, the Fed’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) made a small modification to its guidance that reinforces the notion that a hike in the federal funds target rate is forthcoming. The Fed removed the phrase “patient” from its statement as expected, but also explained that the decision to begin raising rates is still data dependent and will happen on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Concerns over weak inflation and the impact of global developments on growth, as well as lower median rate projections, suggest that the first rate hike will come later in the second half of the year

Labour Market

Note: Month-on-month variation of non-farm payrolls in thousands and unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted in %.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

100

200

300

400

500


Var. in non-farm payrolls (left scale)

Unemployment rate (right scale)

%

Inflation | Consumer Price Index

Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month variation of seasonally adjusted consumer price index in %.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0




%%

Sample Report





April 2015

and that the rate of subsequent hikes will be less aggressive than previously expected. The Fed has been avoiding a fixed timeline as it believes the low interest rates are providing important support for the economy and because it wants to be able to respond flexibly to any changes in the economic scenario.

The Fed’s accompanying statement gave a slightly less upbeat assessment of the economy compared to last meeting. According to the Fed, the pace of economic growth has moderated somewhat in the past two months. There have been further gains in the labor market, household spending is on the rise due to increased purchasing power resulting from low energy prices, and business investment is advancing. However, the Fed did point out that export growth has taken a hit, presumably because of the dollar’s growing strength against other currencies. Committee members also downgraded their growth forecasts. GDP is now expected to increase between 2.3% and 2.7% in both 2015 and 2016, which is down from the 2.6%-3.0% and 2.5%-3.0% projections made in December.

In terms of prices developments, monetary authorities explained that inflation has, “declined further below the Committee’s longer-run objective,” due in large part to declining energy prices. Market-based measured of inflation are low, survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations remain stable and the effects of lower energy prices are projected to be transitory. Nonetheless, there seems to be doubt about the path inflation will follow going forward. In fact, committee members lowered their inflation forecast for this year from a range of 1.0%-1.6% in December to 0.6%-0.8% in January.

In order to avoid a loss of momentum in the economy and stoke inflationary pressures, the FOMC confirmed that the federal funds target rate would remain within the current range of between 0.00% and 0.25%. The Fed emphasized once again that decisions to hike the rate still depend on the assessment of a, “wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.” The Committee stated that it will not raise rates until there have been further improvements in the labor market and until it is “reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2.0% objective.”

The Fed essentially ruled out a rate hike at its next meeting in April. Moreover, given its lower growth and inflation projections, it is likely to hold again in June, with a first move coming perhaps at the following gathering in September. Fifteen of 17 committee members believe that it will be appropriate to make a rate policy change sometime this year. However, the median projection made by committee members in a supplementary document released after the meeting is for rates to reach 0.625% by the end of 2015, which is down significantly from the 1.125% median projection made in December. The median projection is for rates to reach 1.875% by the end of 2016, which is below the 2.5% median projection from December. This suggests that the pace of rate hikes after take-off will be slower than expected. Joseph Song, U.S. Economist at Nomura, shares the following insight:

On balance, the outcome of the March FOMC meeting was more dovish (i.e. notable downshift in the economic and interest rate outlook) than we had anticipated. It’s clear that the center of gravity for liftoff has firmly shifted towards September, in line with our call. But the FOMC is not on autopilot. With the changes to its forward

Monetary Policy

Note: Total assets in the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve in USD billion and Federal Funds Target Rate in %. Current rate set at a range of between 0% and 0.25%.Source: Federal Reserve.

2000

3000

4000

5000

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15

Total Assets (USD bn, right scale)

Federal Funds Target Rate (%, left scale)

%

Sample Report





April 2015

guidance, the FOMC appears to be ready to adjust the course of policy in response to economic developments. In other words, the FOMC really will be “data dependent.”

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the Fed to hike interest rates at some point later this year. Roughly a third of the panelists surveyed expect the Fed to raise interest rates as early as Q2. The vast majority of panelists project the Fed will raise rates by Q3 2015, with an average forecast of 0.52%. The panel sees the federal funds rate averaging 0.74% at the end of 2015 and project that it will increase to 1.99% by the end of 2016.

Sample Report





April 2015

Economic Indicators | 2010 - 2019

Annual Data 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Real Sector Population (million) 310 312 314 316 319 321 323 325 327 329GDP per capita (USD) 48,314 49,746 51,450 53,001 54,687 56,180 58,595 61,043 63,542 66,197GDP (USD bn) 14,964 15,518 16,163 16,768 17,419 18,009 18,904 19,820 20,763 21,769Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) 3.8 3.7 4.2 3.7 3.9 3.4 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.8Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 2.5 1.6 2.3 2.2 2.4 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6Domestic Demand (annual variation in %) 2.9 1.6 2.2 1.9 2.5 3.2 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.7Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 1.9 2.3 1.8 2.4 2.5 3.3 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.6Government Consumption (annual var. in %) 0.1 -3.0 -1.5 -2.0 -0.2 - - - - -Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) 1.5 6.4 8.3 4.7 5.3 - - - - -Non-residential Investment (ann. var. in %) 2.5 7.7 7.2 3.1 6.3 5.2 5.7 5.4 5.4 5.3Residential Investment (ann. variation in %) -2.5 0.5 13.5 11.9 1.6 - - - - -Exports (G&S, annual variation in %) 11.9 6.9 3.3 3.1 3.2 3.4 4.1 4.5 4.5 4.5Imports (G&S, annual variation in %) 12.7 5.5 2.3 1.1 4.0 4.6 5.5 4.8 4.7 4.2Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 5.7 3.3 3.8 2.9 4.2 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.1Retail Sales (annual variation in %) 5.5 7.4 5.2 4.1 4.0 - - - - -Light Vehicle Sales (million) 11.6 12.7 14.4 15.5 16.4 16.9 17.2 17.5 18.2 18.7Housing Starts (million) 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices (var. in %) -2.4 -4.1 6.9 13.4 4.5 - - - - -Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 9.6 8.9 8.1 7.4 6.2 5.4 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.9Fiscal Balance (Federal, % of GDP) -8.6 -8.4 -6.7 -4.1 -2.8 -2.6 -2.7 -2.6 -2.5 -2.5Public Debt (% of GDP) 93.9 98.3 101.8 103.6 104.3 104.6 103.9 104.1 104.7 105.5Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M2 in %) 2.5 7.3 8.6 6.7 6.2 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) 1.4 3.0 1.8 1.5 0.7 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 1.6 3.1 2.1 1.5 1.6 0.4 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3Inflation (Core, annual variation in %, aop) 1.0 1.7 2.1 1.8 1.7 - - - - -Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %, aop) 4.2 6.0 1.9 1.2 1.9 - - - - -Federal Funds Target Rate (%, eop) 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.74 1.99 2.78 2.85 3.273-Month LIBOR rate (%, eop) 0.30 0.58 0.31 0.25 0.26 0.97 2.17 3.07 2.88 3.3810-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 3.30 1.89 1.78 3.04 2.17 2.51 3.19 3.73 3.80 4.10Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.34 1.30 1.32 1.38 1.21 1.11 1.11 1.12 1.16 1.16Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, aop) 1.33 1.39 1.29 1.33 1.33 1.14 1.11 1.12 1.14 1.16External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -3.0 -3.0 -2.9 -2.4 -2.4 -2.3 -2.5 -2.2 -2.0 -1.8Current Account Balance (USD bn) -444 -459 -461 -400 -411 -418 -465 -427 -417 -397Trade Balance (USD bn) -649 -741 -742 -702 -736 - - - - - Quarterly Data Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 2.7 2.4 3.3 3.1 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8Economic Growth (GDP, saar in %) 5.0 2.2 2.1 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.5Private Consumption (saar in %) 3.2 4.4 2.8 3.7 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.7Non-residential Investment (saar in %) 8.9 4.7 2.4 5.5 5.6 5.5 4.9 5.1 5.0 4.4Exports (G&S, saar in %) 4.6 4.5 1.3 3.8 3.4 3.7 4.3 4.5 4.4 5.2Imports (G&S, saar in %) -0.9 10.4 2.1 5.3 5.7 5.4 5.9 6.2 6.2 6.2Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 6.1 5.7 5.5 5.4 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.9Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 1.8 1.2 -0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2Federal Funds Target Rate (%, eop) 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.31 0.52 0.74 1.03 1.27 1.65 1.993-Month LIBOR rate (%, eop) 0.24 0.26 0.30 0.46 0.71 0.97 1.24 1.39 1.73 2.1710-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 2.52 2.17 1.98 2.21 2.36 2.51 2.62 2.75 2.93 3.19Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.26 1.21 1.15 1.13 1.11 1.11 1.10 1.10 1.11 1.11Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -2.2 -2.6 -2.3 -2.3 -2.3 -2.4 -2.4 -2.4 -2.4 -2.6Current Account Balance (USD bn) -98.9 -113.5 -101.9 -104.6 -106.1 -108.6 -110.5 -113.1 -115.3 -123.2 Monthly Data Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15Industrial Production (s.a. mom var. in %) 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.7 -0.1 1.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.1 -Retail Sales (s.a. mom nominal variation in %) 0.4 0.3 0.6 -0.1 0.3 0.4 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -Unemployment (% of active population) 6.1 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.7 5.8 5.6 5.7 5.5 -Conference Board Consumer Confidence 86.4 90.3 93.4 89.0 94.1 91.0 93.1 103.8 96.4 -ISM Manufacturing Index (50%-threshold) 55.7 56.4 58.1 56.1 57.9 57.6 55.1 53.5 52.9 -Markit Manufacturing PMI (50 threshold) 57.3 55.8 57.9 57.5 55.9 54.8 53.9 53.7 55.1 55.3S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City (annual var. in %) 8.1 6.8 5.6 4.8 4.5 4.3 4.5 - - -Housing Starts (millions of units, saar) 0.91 1.10 0.96 1.03 1.09 1.02 1.08 1.08 0.90 -Existing Home Sales (millions of units, saar) 5.01 5.07 5.00 5.10 5.16 4.95 5.07 4.82 4.88 -Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.7 0.2 -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 2.1 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.3 0.8 -0.1 0.0 -Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.37 1.34 1.32 1.26 1.25 1.25 1.21 1.13 1.12 -Trade Balance (G&S, USD bn) -41.4 -40.7 -39.9 -43.4 -41.9 -39.5 -45.6 -41.8 - -

Sample Report





April 2015

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.1 GDP, annual variation in %.2 Quarterly GDP (seasonally adjusted), quarter-on-quarter annualized variation in %.3 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in

%. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

< 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.5 3.8 4.1 > 4.1

Real GDP growth in %

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016Allianz 3.0 2.5BBVA Research 2.9 2.8Berenberg 2.8 2.9BMO Capital Markets 3.0 2.6BNP Paribas 3.3 2.8CIBC World Markets 2.9 2.4Citigroup Global Mkts 3.1 3.0Commerzbank 3.2 2.8Credit Agricole 3.2 2.8Credit Suisse 3.0 2.9DekaBank 2.9 2.9Deutsche Bank 3.3 3.1DIW Berlin 3.1 3.2EIU 3.2 2.5Frontier Strategy Group 3.2 2.9Goldman Sachs 2.8 3.0Holding Monex 2.5 2.1ING 3.4 2.9Intesa Sanpaolo 3.2 3.0JPMorgan 2.7 2.5Julius Baer 3.2 3.0Lloyds TSB 3.2 3.0Macroeconomic Advisers 3.0 3.1Nomura 2.7 2.5Nordea 3.2 2.9Oxford Economics 3.0 2.8Raiffeisen Research 3.2 3.2RBC Capital Markets 3.1 2.9Scotiabank 3.0 2.9Standard Chartered 2.6 2.3Toronto-Dominion Bank 3.0 2.8UBS 2.8 2.8Unicredit 3.0 2.6SummaryMinimum 2.5 2.1Maximum 3.4 3.2Median 3.0 2.9Consensus 3.0 2.8History30 days ago 3.1 2.860 days ago 3.2 2.890 days ago 3.0 2.8Additional ForecastsFederal Reserve (Mar. 2015) 2.3-2.7 2.3-2.7IMF (Jan. 2015) 3.6 3.3

1 | Real GDP | 2000-2019 | var. in %

3 | GDP 2015 | evolution of forecasts

2 | Real GDP | Q1 12-Q4 16 | var. in %


-4

-2

0

2

4

6

2000 2005 2010 2015

United StatesG7World

-3

0

3

6

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

United States

G7

1

2

3

4


MaximumConsensusMinimum

1

2

3

4



5 | GDP 2015 | Panelist Distribution

Sample Report





April 2015

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

9 | Investment | evol. of forecasts

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0


2015 2016

8 | Investment | variation in %

-20

-10

0

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

United States

G7

7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4


2015 2016

6 | Consumption | variation in %

-2

0

2

4

6

2000 2005 2010 2015

United States

G7

Consumption and Investment

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Allianz 3.4 2.6 - -BBVA Research - - - -Berenberg 2.8 2.7 6.4 5.9BMO Capital Markets 3.4 3.2 4.3 4.0BNP Paribas 3.0 2.6 6.1 6.8CIBC World Markets 3.3 2.8 5.4 4.5Citigroup Global Mkts 3.5 3.3 4.8 5.9Commerzbank 3.3 2.8 6.4 7.5Credit Agricole - - - -Credit Suisse 3.3 3.2 4.5 4.4DekaBank 3.3 2.9 - -Deutsche Bank 3.6 3.1 5.1 7.7DIW Berlin - - - -EIU 3.1 2.4 6.6 6.4Frontier Strategy Group 3.6 2.9 - -Goldman Sachs 3.5 2.9 4.7 5.3Holding Monex 2.5 2.9 4.0 3.9ING - - - -Intesa Sanpaolo 3.0 2.9 6.4 6.2JPMorgan 3.4 - - -Julius Baer - - - -Lloyds TSB - - - -Macroeconomic Advisers 3.6 3.4 5.6 4.5Nomura 3.6 3.0 3.0 4.9Nordea - - - -Oxford Economics 3.2 2.8 4.3 5.6Raiffeisen Research 3.3 3.2 - -RBC Capital Markets 3.2 2.7 6.8 6.7Scotiabank 3.4 3.3 - -Standard Chartered - - - -Toronto-Dominion Bank 3.4 3.0 5.3 4.9UBS 3.3 2.9 4.1 6.6Unicredit - - - -SummaryMinimum 2.5 2.4 3.0 3.9Maximum 3.6 3.4 6.8 7.7Median 3.3 2.9 5.2 5.7Consensus 3.3 2.9 5.2 5.7History30 days ago 3.3 2.8 5.6 5.760 days ago 3.2 2.7 6.0 5.790 days ago 2.9 2.7 6.4 5.8

Consumption Investmentvariation in % variation in %

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.6 Private consumption, annual variation in %.7 Private consumption, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.8 Non-residential fixed investment, annual variation in %.9 Non-residential fixed investment, evol. of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Sample Report





April 2015


4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0


2015 2016

13 | Imports | evol. of forecasts

-20

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

United States

G7

12 | Imports | variation in %

-20

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

United States

G7

10 | Exports | variation in %

3

4

5

6


2015 2016

11 | Exports | evolution of fcst

Exports and Imports

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Allianz 3.8 4.3 5.0 5.1BBVA Research - - - -Berenberg - - - -BMO Capital Markets 2.6 3.0 5.2 6.0BNP Paribas - - - -CIBC World Markets 4.5 5.3 5.9 6.1Citigroup Global Mkts 3.6 3.4 4.2 4.8Commerzbank 1.7 2.4 3.7 4.5Credit Agricole - - - -Credit Suisse 3.5 3.8 4.0 4.7DekaBank 5.3 4.6 6.3 6.5Deutsche Bank 1.6 -1.6 3.5 4.6DIW Berlin - - - -EIU 2.8 3.2 3.7 4.1Frontier Strategy Group 4.0 4.7 4.9 2.4Goldman Sachs - - - -Holding Monex 4.9 4.4 6.1 6.7ING - - - -Intesa Sanpaolo 5.2 5.1 3.8 4.6JPMorgan 3.7 - 5.5 -Julius Baer - - - -Lloyds TSB - - - -Macroeconomic Advisers 3.3 6.1 5.0 6.4Nomura 2.2 3.6 4.2 5.9Nordea - - - -Oxford Economics 3.7 4.6 3.5 4.5Raiffeisen Research 3.7 5.7 4.4 9.5RBC Capital Markets 3.2 7.1 4.3 6.3Scotiabank 4.1 3.9 5.1 5.3Standard Chartered - - - -Toronto-Dominion Bank 2.9 5.1 5.3 6.3UBS 1.9 3.0 3.9 5.2Unicredit - - - -SummaryMinimum 1.6 -1.6 3.5 2.4Maximum 5.3 7.1 6.3 9.5Median 3.6 4.3 4.4 5.2Consensus 3.4 4.1 4.6 5.5History30 days ago 4.3 4.4 5.0 5.360 days ago 4.5 4.5 4.7 5.190 days ago 4.9 4.7 4.9 5.0

Exports Imports variation in % variation in %

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 10 Real exports of goods and services, annual variation in %.11 Exports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.12 Real imports of goods and services, annual variation in %.13 Imports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Sample Report





April 2015


4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5


2015 2016

17 | Unemployment | evol. of forecasts

3

5

7

9

11

2000 2005 2010 2015

United States

G7

16 | Unemployment | % of active pop.

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

United States

G7

14 | Industry | variation in %

3.2

3.6

4.0

4.4

4.8


2015 2016

15 | Industry | evol. of forecasts

Industry and Unemployment

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Allianz 3.2 3.6 5.5 5.2BBVA Research - - 5.3 4.9Berenberg 3.0 2.9 5.4 4.8BMO Capital Markets 2.7 2.6 5.3 4.7BNP Paribas - - 5.2 4.9CIBC World Markets - - 5.5 5.3Citigroup Global Mkts 4.2 4.0 5.3 5.1Commerzbank - - 5.3 4.7Credit Agricole - - 5.6 5.3Credit Suisse 4.1 4.3 5.3 4.7DekaBank - - 5.3 4.7Deutsche Bank 4.5 3.9 5.1 4.5DIW Berlin - - 5.5 5.0EIU 3.5 3.2 5.3 5.1Frontier Strategy Group - - 5.5 5.5Goldman Sachs - - 5.4 5.0Holding Monex 4.0 3.5 5.4 5.1ING - - - -Intesa Sanpaolo 4.0 3.9 5.5 5.3JPMorgan 3.5 - 5.2 -Julius Baer - - - -Lloyds TSB - - - -Macroeconomic Advisers 3.4 2.2 5.3 4.9Nomura - - 5.3 5.0Nordea 3.6 3.4 5.6 5.2Oxford Economics 3.5 3.6 5.4 5.3Raiffeisen Research - - 5.2 4.2RBC Capital Markets - - 5.5 5.3Scotiabank 3.3 3.5 5.3 5.0Standard Chartered - - - -Toronto-Dominion Bank - - 5.3 5.0UBS 2.7 2.4 5.5 5.1Unicredit - - - -SummaryMinimum 2.7 2.2 5.1 4.2Maximum 4.5 4.3 5.6 5.5Median 3.5 3.5 5.3 5.0Consensus 3.6 3.4 5.4 5.0History30 days ago 3.9 3.3 5.4 5.160 days ago 4.1 3.6 5.4 5.190 days ago 4.0 3.6 5.5 5.2

Industry Unemploymentvariation in % % of active pop.

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.14 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: BEA.15 Industrial production, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months. 16 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: BLS.17 Unemployment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Sample Report





April 2015


102

104

106

108

110


2015 2016

21 | Public Debt | evol. of forecasts

40

60

80

100

120

2000 2005 2010 2015

United States

G7

20 | Public Debt | % of GDP

-10

-5

0

5

2000 2005 2010 2015

United States

G7

18 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP

-3.4

-3.1

-2.8

-2.5


2015 2016

19 | Fiscal Balance | evol. of forecasts

Fiscal Balance and Public Debt

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Allianz -2.6 -2.5 - -BBVA Research -2.7 -2.6 - -Berenberg - - 107 106BMO Capital Markets -2.7 -2.4 - -BNP Paribas -2.6 -3.1 - -CIBC World Markets - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts -2.8 -3.2 106 105Commerzbank - - - -Credit Agricole -2.6 -2.9 - -Credit Suisse -2.8 -2.5 - -DekaBank - - - -Deutsche Bank -2.6 -2.9 - -DIW Berlin - - - -EIU -2.5 -2.2 - -Frontier Strategy Group - - - -Goldman Sachs - - - -Holding Monex - - - -ING - - 103 102Intesa Sanpaolo - - - -JPMorgan -2.7 - - -Julius Baer - - - -Lloyds TSB - - - -Macroeconomic Advisers - - - -Nomura -2.6 -2.9 - -Nordea -2.6 -2.8 - -Oxford Economics - - - -Raiffeisen Research -2.6 -2.5 103 102RBC Capital Markets - - - -Scotiabank -2.5 -2.6 - -Standard Chartered - - - -Toronto-Dominion Bank - - - -UBS - - - -Unicredit - - 105 105SummaryMinimum -2.8 -3.2 103 102Maximum -2.5 -2.2 107 106Median -2.6 -2.6 105 105Consensus -2.6 -2.7 105 104History30 days ago -2.6 -2.8 105 10560 days ago -2.7 -2.9 104 10490 days ago -2.6 -2.9 104 104

Fiscal Balance Public Debt % of GDP % of GDP

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.18 Federal government balance as % of GDP.19 Federal government balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.20 Public debt as % of GDP.21 Public debt as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Sample Report





April 2015

Monetary Sector | Inflation

22 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | in %

24 | Inflation 2015 | evol. of forecasts

23 | Inflation | Q1 12-Q4 16 | in %


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the Bureau of Labor Statisics (BLS). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.22 Inflation, annual average variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %.23 Inflation, annual variation of quarterly average consumer price index (CPI) in %. 24 Inflation, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.25 Inflation, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.26 Inflation, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval

in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016Allianz 0.3 2.2BBVA Research 1.5 2.1Berenberg 0.1 1.9BMO Capital Markets 0.3 2.2BNP Paribas 0.3 2.3CIBC World Markets 0.5 2.8Citigroup Global Mkts - -Commerzbank 0.2 2.0Credit Agricole -0.1 2.0Credit Suisse 0.2 -DekaBank 1.0 2.7Deutsche Bank 0.6 2.6DIW Berlin -0.3 1.5EIU 0.5 2.2Frontier Strategy Group 1.3 1.6Goldman Sachs 0.2 2.1Holding Monex 0.1 0.6ING 0.1 2.2Intesa Sanpaolo 1.1 1.6JPMorgan 0.2 -Julius Baer 0.6 1.8Lloyds TSB 0.2 2.2Macroeconomic Advisers 0.2 2.3Nomura 0.4 2.1Nordea 0.3 2.6Oxford Economics 0.0 2.2Raiffeisen Research 0.0 3.0RBC Capital Markets 0.5 2.8Scotiabank 0.6 2.2Standard Chartered 1.4 1.7Toronto-Dominion Bank 0.3 2.6UBS -0.1 2.6Unicredit -0.6 2.3SummaryMinimum -0.6 0.6Maximum 1.5 3.0Median 0.3 2.2Consensus 0.4 2.2History30 days ago 0.6 2.260 days ago 0.9 2.290 days ago 1.3 2.2Additional ForecastsIMF (Oct. 2014) 2.1 2.1

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

< -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 > 5.0

26 | Inflation 2015 | Panelist Distribution

Inflation | annual variation of consumer price index in %

-1

0

1

2

3



-1

0

1

2

3

4

2000 2005 2010 2015

United States

G7

0

1

2

3

4



-1

0

1

2

3

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

United States

G7

Sample Report





April 2015

Monetary Sector | Interest Rates

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016Allianz - - 0.90 1.70 2.20 2.90BBVA Research 0.50 1.50 - - 2.60 3.11Berenberg 0.75 2.00 - - - -BMO Capital Markets 0.63 1.63 0.78 1.82 2.30 2.80BNP Paribas 1.00 2.00 0.75 2.45 2.75 3.00CIBC World Markets 0.88 1.38 0.93 1.45 2.70 3.30Citigroup Global Mkts 0.50 - - - 2.45 -Commerzbank 1.00 - 1.65 - 2.50 -Credit Agricole 0.75 2.00 1.05 2.30 - -Credit Suisse 0.88 1.88 - - 2.85 -DekaBank 0.75 3.00 1.20 3.30 2.73 3.30Deutsche Bank 0.75 - 1.35 - 2.65 -DIW Berlin - - - - - -EIU - - - - 2.50 3.90Frontier Strategy Group - - - - - -Goldman Sachs 0.63 1.63 - - 2.50 3.00Holding Monex 0.25 0.50 0.26 0.52 1.56 1.92ING 0.50 1.25 0.75 1.50 2.60 3.00Intesa Sanpaolo 0.83 2.50 1.07 2.78 3.03 3.88JPMorgan 1.00 - - - 2.40 -Julius Baer 0.50 1.75 - - 2.05 3.20Lloyds TSB 0.75 1.75 0.90 1.90 2.60 3.20Macroeconomic Advisers - - - - 2.71 3.67Nomura 0.63 1.63 0.80 1.80 2.50 3.00Nordea 0.75 2.00 0.85 2.15 2.40 3.20Oxford Economics - - 0.81 1.74 2.24 2.83Raiffeisen Research 1.00 3.50 1.40 3.70 2.60 3.70RBC Capital Markets 1.00 3.00 - - 3.10 4.00Scotiabank 0.75 2.50 - - 2.50 3.00Standard Chartered 0.75 - 0.75 - 2.30 -Toronto-Dominion Bank 0.75 1.25 - - 2.30 2.75UBS 0.63 2.13 1.00 2.45 2.50 3.00Unicredit 1.00 3.00 1.25 3.20 2.60 3.60SummaryMinimum 0.25 0.50 0.26 0.52 1.56 1.92Maximum 1.00 3.50 1.65 3.70 3.10 4.00Median 0.75 1.94 0.90 2.03 2.50 3.11Consensus 0.74 1.99 0.97 2.17 2.51 3.19History30 days ago 0.84 2.05 1.04 2.17 2.64 3.3360 days ago 0.90 2.14 1.13 2.36 2.86 3.5490 days ago 0.97 2.18 1.24 2.55 3.08 3.67

Fed Funds 3-Month USD 10-Year BondTarget Rate in % LIBOR in % Yield in %

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary data are from the Federal Reserve Board (Fed). Variation in forecasts for federal funds target rate partly reflects current range of between 0% and 0.25% determined by the Fed. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.27 Federal funds target rate in %.28 Federal funds target rate in %, evol. of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.29 10-year benchmark bond yield (eop).30 10-year benchmark bond yield, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Policy Rate, Benchmark Rate and 10-Year Bond Yield

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5


2015 2016

30 | 10-Year Bond Yield | evol. of fcst

1

2

3

4

5

6

2000 2005 2010 2015

United States

G7

29 | 10-Year Bond Yield | in %

0

2

4

6

8

2000 2005 2010 2015

United States

G7

27 | Policy Rate | in %

0

1

2

3


2015 2016

28 | Policy Rate | evol. of forecasts

Sample Report





April 2015

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

< -3.4 -3.0 -2.6 -2.2 -1.8 -1.4 -1.0 -0.6 > -0.6

External Sector | Current Account Balance

36 | Current Account | % of GDP

38 | Current Account 2015 | evol. of fcst

37 | Curr Account | Q1 12-Q4 16 | % of GDP


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016Allianz -2.6 -2.8BBVA Research -2.9 -2.9Berenberg -2.6 -2.6BMO Capital Markets -2.6 -2.9BNP Paribas -2.5 -2.3CIBC World Markets -2.5 -2.4Citigroup Global Mkts -1.5 -1.4Commerzbank -2.4 -2.6Credit Agricole -2.4 -2.4Credit Suisse -2.2 -DekaBank -2.0 -2.5Deutsche Bank -2.8 -3.5DIW Berlin - -EIU -2.2 -2.5Frontier Strategy Group - -Goldman Sachs - -Holding Monex - -ING - -Intesa Sanpaolo -1.4 -1.4JPMorgan - -Julius Baer - -Lloyds TSB - -Macroeconomic Advisers - -Nomura -2.1 -1.9Nordea -1.9 -2.2Oxford Economics -2.0 -1.7Raiffeisen Research -2.9 -3.0RBC Capital Markets -2.2 -2.4Scotiabank -2.6 -2.8Standard Chartered -2.4 -2.3Toronto-Dominion Bank -2.5 -3.1UBS -2.0 -2.4Unicredit -2.5 -2.6SummaryMinimum -2.9 -3.5Maximum -1.4 -1.4Median -2.4 -2.5Consensus -2.3 -2.5History30 days ago -2.2 -2.360 days ago -2.2 -2.390 days ago -2.2 -2.2

40 | Current Account 2015 | Panelist Distribution

Current Account Balance | % of GDP

-4

-3

-2

-1



-6

-4

-2

0

2000 2005 2010 2015

United States

G7

-4

-3

-2

-1

0



-3.0

-2.8

-2.6

-2.4

-2.2

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.36 Current account balance as % of GDP.37 4-quarter moving average of current account balance as % of GDP.38 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.39 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.40 Current account balance as % of GDP, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration

of panelists in forecast interval in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

Sample Report





April 2015

Fact Sheet

United States in the Region

Population | %-share in G7 GDP | %-share in G7

United States49.0%

Japan13.0%

Germany10.8%

United Kingdom

8.3%

France8.0%

Italy6.0%

Canada5.0%

United States42.4%

Japan16.9%

Germany10.8%

United Kingdom

8.6%

France8.5%

Italy8.0%

Canada4.7%

Canada14.1%

Japan6.4%

EU-2716.7%

Other Asia ex-Japan

10.7%China19.0%

Other LatAm7.4%

Mexico12.0%

Other13.7%Canada

18.9%

EU-2717.2%

Other Asia ex-Japan

13.7%China7.2%

Other LatAm11.2%

Mexico14.0%

Other17.9%

Other6.3%

Manufact. Products69.9%

Mineral Fuels18.7%

Food5.1%Other

16.5%


Mineral Fuels10.4%

Food10.1%

Trade Structure

Primary markets | share in %

Primary products | share in %

Economic Structure

GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %

Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1202005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Net Exports

Investment

GovernmentConsumption

PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002003-05 2006-08 2010-12

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data

Economic Infrastructure

Political Data

Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings

Strengths Weaknesses

• Growing energy self sufficiency • High public debt• Strong domestic market • Persistent current account deficit• Diversified economy • High household debt• Flexible job market

Energy (2012)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 79,212Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 95,058Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 4,048Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 3,832Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 11,119Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 18,490CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 5,270

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: Aaa StableS&P: AA+ StableFitch Ratings: AAA Stable

Telecommunication (2013) Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 42.2Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 96Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 84.2Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 28.5

Transportation (2013) Airports: 13,513Railways (km): 224,792Roadways (km): 6,586,610Waterways (km): 41,009Chief Ports: Los Angeles, New York, Savannah

President: Barack Hussein ObamaLast elections: 6 November 2012Next elections: 8 November 2016Central Bank Governor: Janet Yellen

Official name: United States of AmericaCapital: Washington D.C. (4.4m)Other cities: New York (19.3m)

Los Angeles (12.6m)Area (km2): 9,826,675Population (million, 2014 est.): 319Population density (per km2, 2014): 32.4Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 0.8Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 79.6Illiteracy rate (%, 2003): 1.0Language: EnglishMeasures: U.S. customary unitsTime: GMT-5 to GMT-10

Sample Report



FOCUSECONOMICS Canada


April 2015

Canada

REAL SECTOR | Economic growth slows in Q4In the fourth quarter, GDP increased at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 2.4% over the previous quarter. The result came in below the 3.2% expansion recorded in the third quarter but exceeded market expectations of a 2.0% increase. In the full year 2014, the economy grew 2.5%, which was up from the 2.0% increase seen in 2013.

The slowdown in Q4 was driven by a deceleration in both domestic demand and the external sector. Private consumption grew 2.0% in Q4, which was down from the 2.6% increase seen in the previous quarter. In addition, fixed investment contracted 0.3% in the fourth quarter, which contrasted the 6.4% increase observed in Q3. Contrary, government consumption rebounded from a 0.3% contraction in Q3 to a 2.1% expansion in Q4, thus marking the fastest increase since Q1 2012.

In the external sector, exports of goods and services fell 1.6% in Q4, which was a deterioration over the 8.9% increase seen in the previous quarter. In addition, imports slowed from a 4.2% increase in Q3 to a 1.7% rise in Q4. As a result, the external sector’s net contribution to overall growth deteriorated from plus 1.5 percentage points in Q3 to minus 1.1 percentage points in Q4, which marked the least contribution since Q3 2012.

After posting robust growth rates in the second and third quarters last year, the Canadian economy slowed in the three months through December. Economic activity grew at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 2.4%, which was well below the 3.2% expansion tallied in Q3. In Q4, exports failed to benefit from a weaker currency and became a drag on growth. Moreover, a range of monthly indicators from the start of 2015 indicate a further deceleration of the economy in Q1. In February, the Ivey PMI pointed to a contraction in the manufacturing sector for the second consecutive month and housing starts fell to the lowest level in over five years.

The drastic drop in oil prices will most likely have a negative impact on government revenues and business investment. However, a weaker currency coupled with increasing external demand from the United States should bode well for economic growth looking forward. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to expand 2.1% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel foresees economic growth of 2.2%.

In February, inflation was stable at January’s 1.0%. Inflation pressures are expected to moderate further in the coming months due to lower global oil prices and a decelerating economy. Panelists expect inflation to average 1.0% in 2015, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2016, the panel projects that inflation will pick up and average 2.1%.

Outlook moderates


Canada

2011-13 2014-16 2017-19Population (million): 34.7 35.8 36.9GDP (USD bn): 1,820 1,710 1,982GDP per capita (USD): 52,444 47,749 53,729GDP growth (%): 2.3 2.3 2.2Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -1.1 0.1 0.2Inflation (%): 1.8 1.7 2.1Current Account (% of GDP): -3.0 -2.3 -1.9

Dirina MançellariEconomist

Gross Domestic Product | variation in %

Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally adjusted annualized GDP and year-on-year variation in %.Source: Statistics Canada (SC) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015

Quarter-on-quarter saar (left scale)


% %

Sample Report





April 2015

According to its January Monetary Policy Report, the Central Bank projects that the economy will grow 2.1% in 2015 and 2.4% in 2016. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to grow 2.1% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2016, the panel expects the economy to also expand 2.2%.

OUTLOOK | PMI improves in FebruaryThe Ivey Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which is sponsored by the Richard Ivey School of Business and the Purchasing Management Association of Canada, rose a seasonally-adjusted 4.3 points, from January’s 45.4 points to 49.7 points in February. The increase contrasted the 10.0-point decrease recorded in January. The print overshot the 48.5 points expected by the market. As a result, the volatile index is now closer to the 50-point threshold that indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see industrial production expanding 1.5% in 2015, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel expects industrial production growth of 2.0%.

HOUSING | Housing starts plummet in FebruarySeasonally-adjusted annualized housing starts registered 156,300 units in February, according to the government-owned Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The figure marked a 16.4% decrease over January’s 187,000 units and notably undershot market expectations of 179,000 units. The drop marked the sharpest decrease since March of last year and was driven largely by a drop in multiple urban starts.

The six-month moving average fell by 3.5% over the previous month, from January’s 188,800 average to 182,100 in February, thus reaching the lowest level since June 2013. The CMHC commented that, “[t]he declining trend in multiple starts is helping to gradually erode the inventory of completed and unsold units, which is high compared to historical levels.”

According to its Q4 Housing Market Outlook, the CMHC estimates that housing starts will record 189,500 units in 2015 and 187,000 units in 2016. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect 181,760 housing starts in 2015. For 2016, the panel sees housing starts moderating to 181,208 units.

HOUSING | Housing prices ease in FebruaryThe Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price index rose 0.1% in February over the previous month. The result followed January’s 0.2% increase. The countrywide index inched up to 167.5 points in February from January’s 167.4 points.

Regarding regional developments, housing prices increased in 5 of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed, with the largest increases recorded in Vancouver and Victoria. On an annual basis, house prices rose 4.4% in February, which was below January’s 4.7% gain and marked the slowest increase in over a year.

MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation stable in FebruaryIn February, consumer prices rose a seasonally-adjusted 0.2% over the previous month, which contrasted January’s 0.2% drop. According to Statistics Canada, the increase came on the back of higher prices for transportation.

Housing Starts | Thousands of units

Note: Monthly housing starts at seasonally-adjusted annualized units.Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).

150

200

250

300


Purchasing Managers’ Index

Note: Ivey Purchasing Managers’ Index. A reading above 50 points indicates an expansion in the manufacturing sector while a value below 50 points indicates a contraction.Source: Richard Ivey School of Business and the Purchasing Management Association of Canada.

40

50

60

70


Housing Prices

Note: Monthly and annual variation of the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index in %.Source: Teranet and National Bank of Canada and FocusEconomics calculations.

0.0

1.5

3.0

4.5

6.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5


Month-on-month s.a. (left scale)


%%

Sample Report





April 2015

Annual headline inflation in February was stable at January’s 1.0%, thus remaining at the lowest level in over a year. As a result, inflation is at the lower bound of the Central Bank’s tolerance margin of plus/minus 1.0 percentage points around its target of 2.0%. Annual average inflation in February was also stable at January’s 1.9%. Annual core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as gasoline and fresh food, inched down from 2.2% in January to 2.1% in February, thus marking the lowest rate in six months.

According to its January Monetary Policy Report, the Bank of Canada expects headline inflation to average 1.2% in 2015 and 2.0% in 2016. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation to average 1.0% in 2015, which is down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month’s forecast. The panel expects inflation to average 2.1% in 2016.

MONETARY SECTOR | Bank of Canada keeps overnight rate unchangedAt its 4 March monetary policy meeting, the Bank of Canada (BoC) kept the overnight target rate at 0.75%. The decision was expected by the markets. The Bank had reduced its overnight target rate by 25 basis points in a surprise move at its 21 January meeting thus bringing the rate at its lowest level since September 2010.

The BoC commented that economic performance in the last quarter of 2014 was broadly in line with the Bank’s expectations. Lower oil prices had a modest impact on aggregate demand. However, a more pronounced negative effect is expected to be manifested in the first quarter of 2015. The Bank added that, “data for 2014 as a whole suggest the anticipated rotation into stronger growth in non-energy exports and investment is well underway.”

Regarding price developments, the BoC said that inflation has fallen as expected, largely reflecting the dramatic drop in oil prices. However, core inflation remains broadly stable around 2.0% as it continues to be boosted by the pass-through effects of the weaker currency.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see the policy rate at 0.75% at the end of 2015. For 2016, panelists expect the policy rate to rise to 1.52%.

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5


%

Target for the Overnight Rate | in %

Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally adjusted annualized GDP and year-on-year variation in %.Source: Statistics Canada (SC) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.


Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month variation of seasonally adjusted consumer price index in %.Source: Statistics Canada (SC) and FocusEconomics calculations.

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0




%%

Sample Report





April 2015


Annual Data 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Real Sector Population (million) 34.0 34.3 34.7 35.1 35.5 35.8 36.2 36.5 36.9 37.2GDP per capita (USD) 47,532 52,168 52,790 52,373 50,444 45,488 47,314 50,481 53,882 56,825GDP (USD bn) 1,614 1,790 1,832 1,839 1,789 1,630 1,712 1,844 1,987 2,115GDP (CAD bn) 1,663 1,770 1,831 1,894 1,976 2,037 2,126 2,218 2,312 2,412Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) 6.1 6.5 3.5 3.4 4.4 3.0 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.3Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 3.4 3.0 1.9 2.0 2.5 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1Domestic Demand (annual variation in %) 5.0 2.5 2.5 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.6 2.0 2.0 2.3Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 3.5 2.2 1.9 2.5 2.8 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5Government Consumption (ann. var. in %) 2.7 0.8 1.2 0.4 0.3 - - - - -Gross Fixed Invest. (ann. var. in %) 11.5 4.8 4.8 0.4 0.4 -0.5 1.5 3.1 3.6 3.7Non-Residential Fixed Invest. (ann. var. in %) 14.5 12.7 9.0 2.6 0.1 -2.1 3.5 5.0 5.3 5.5Exports (G&S, annual variation in %) 6.9 4.6 2.6 2.0 5.4 4.6 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.9Imports (G&S, annual variation in %) 13.6 5.7 3.7 1.3 1.7 2.5 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.2Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 6.0 4.1 1.4 1.8 3.9 1.5 2.0 2.3 2.8 2.8Retail Sales (annual variation in %) 3.1 1.3 1.8 2.8 3.6 2.2 3.1 3.5 3.5 3.6Housing Starts (thousands) 192 193 215 188 189 182 181 185 188 188Teranet House Prices (annual variation in %) 8.9 5.0 4.8 2.6 4.9 - - - - -Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 8.0 7.5 7.3 7.1 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.2 6.1 5.9Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -2.1 -1.3 -1.0 -0.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3Public Debt (% of GDP) 33.5 33.8 33.7 33.0 31.7 - - - - -Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M2++ in %) 5.5 6.5 5.5 6.9 4.7 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) 2.4 2.3 0.8 1.2 1.5 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 1.8 2.9 1.5 0.9 1.9 1.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2Inflation (Core, annual variation in %, aop) 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.2 1.8 - - - - -Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %, aop) 1.5 6.9 1.1 0.4 2.5 - - - - -Target for the Overnight Rate (%, eop) 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.75 1.52 2.36 2.61 2.613-Month T-Bill (%, eop) 0.98 0.83 0.92 0.91 0.91 0.81 1.62 2.03 2.70 2.9010-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 3.11 1.94 1.80 2.77 1.79 2.05 2.82 2.89 3.17 3.28Stock Market (TSX variation in %, eop) 14.4 -11.1 4.0 9.6 7.4 - - - - -Exchange Rate (CAD per USD, eop) 1.00 1.02 0.99 1.06 1.16 1.27 1.22 1.18 1.15 1.13Exchange Rate (CAD per USD, aop) 1.03 0.99 1.00 1.03 1.10 1.25 1.24 1.20 1.16 1.14External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -3.5 -2.7 -3.3 -3.0 -2.2 -2.7 -2.1 -2.1 -2.0 -1.8Current Account Balance (CAD bn) -58.4 -47.2 -59.9 -56.3 -43.5 -54.6 -43.7 -45.7 -45.6 -42.3Trade Balance (CAD bn) -4.8 0.0 -6.9 -3.7 13.1 - - - - - Quarterly Data Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.3 1.9 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.3Economic Growth (GDP, saar in %) 3.2 2.4 1.2 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.3Private Consumption (saar in %) 2.6 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9Gross Fixed Invest. (saar in %) 6.4 -0.3 -2.6 -4.1 -2.1 0.5 2.9 3.3 3.4 3.4Non-Residential Fixed Invest. (saar in %) 3.5 -2.3 -4.0 -4.9 -1.4 3.2 5.0 4.9 4.8 5.3Exports (G&S, saar in %) 8.9 -1.6 3.1 5.3 5.6 5.5 4.9 4.6 4.5 4.5Imports (G&S, saar in %) 4.2 1.7 1.9 0.9 2.6 2.9 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.1Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 6.9 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.5Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 2.1 1.9 1.0 0.7 1.0 1.4 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.1Target for the Overnight Rate (%, eop) 1.00 1.00 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.84 1.04 1.25 1.523-Month T-Bill (%, eop) 0.92 0.91 0.75 0.87 0.89 0.81 0.93 1.08 1.26 1.6210-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 2.15 1.79 1.37 1.63 1.80 2.05 2.20 2.32 2.53 2.82Exchange Rate (CAD per USD, eop) 1.12 1.16 1.26 1.26 1.26 1.27 1.26 1.24 1.22 1.22 Monthly Data May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15Economic Growth (GDP, s.a. mom var. in %) 0.5 0.4 0.1 -0.1 0.4 0.3 -0.2 0.3 - -Housing Starts (thousands of units, saar) 196.4 197.1 203.3 196.0 197.0 181.6 192.0 179.0 187.0 156.3Teranet House Prices (mom var. in %) 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.2 0.1Unemployment (% of active population) 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.8Ivey PMI s.a. (50-point threshold) 48.2 46.9 54.1 50.9 58.6 51.2 56.9 55.4 45.4 49.7Inflation (CPI, s.a. mom variation in %) 0.2 0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.2Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 2.3 2.4 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.4 2.0 1.5 1.0 1.0Exchange Rate (CAD per USD, eop) 1.08 1.07 1.09 1.09 1.12 1.13 1.14 1.16 1.27 1.25

Sample Report





April 2015


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from Statistics Canada (SC). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.1 GDP, annual variation in %.2 Quarterly GDP (seasonally adjusted), q-o-q annualized variation in %.3 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in


0%

20%

40%

60%

< 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 > 4.0


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016BMO Capital Markets 1.9 2.2CIBC World Markets 1.7 2.6Citigroup Global Mkts 2.1 1.8Commerzbank 2.3 2.5Credit Agricole 2.5 2.3Credit Suisse 1.4 2.0DekaBank 2.4 2.9Desjardins Group 2.0 2.2Deutsche Bank 2.5 2.7DZ Bank 2.6 -EIU 2.0 2.3ING 2.0 2.2JPMorgan 1.8 2.3Julius Baer 2.5 2.0KBC 2.3 2.2Nomura 2.1 2.0Oxford Economics 2.2 2.2RBC Capital Markets 2.4 2.3Scotiabank 1.9 2.0Standard Chartered 0.8 0.8Toronto-Dominion Bank 1.9 2.2UBS 2.9 2.8SummaryMinimum 0.8 0.8Maximum 2.9 2.9Median 2.1 2.2Consensus 2.1 2.2History30 days ago 2.2 2.260 days ago 2.3 2.390 days ago 2.5 2.4Additional ForecastsCentral Bank (Jan. 2015) 2.1 2.4IMF (Jan. 2015) 2.3 2.1OECD (Nov. 2014) 2.6 2.4

1 | Real GDP | 2000-2019 | var. in %


2 | Real GDP | Q1 12-Q4 16 | var. in %


-6

-3

0

3

6

2000 2005 2010 2015

CanadaG7World

-2

0

2

4

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

Canada G7

0

1

2

3

4



0

1

2

3

4




Sample Report





April 2015


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016BMO Capital Markets 2.1 2.1 -2.7 1.2 -5.7 2.3CIBC World Markets 2.0 1.6 -0.5 2.0 -1.8 4.0Citigroup Global Mkts 2.3 2.0 1.5 0.8 - -Commerzbank - - - - - -Credit Agricole - - - - - -Credit Suisse - - - - - -DekaBank - - - - - -Desjardins Group 2.4 2.1 0.0 2.2 -1.7 4.4Deutsche Bank - - - - - -DZ Bank - - - - - -EIU 1.9 1.6 -2.5 0.3 - -ING - - - - - -JPMorgan - - - - - -Julius Baer - - - - - -KBC - - - - - -Nomura 2.4 2.2 - - -0.1 2.9Oxford Economics 2.4 2.4 1.2 1.3 - -RBC Capital Markets 2.6 2.4 -0.7 2.6 -2.7 4.4Scotiabank 3.1 4.0 - - - -Standard Chartered - - - - - -Toronto-Dominion Bank 2.1 1.9 - - -0.8 3.0UBS 2.4 2.2 - - - -SummaryMinimum 1.9 1.6 -2.7 0.3 -5.7 2.3Maximum 3.1 4.0 1.5 2.6 -0.1 4.4Median 2.4 2.1 -0.5 1.3 -1.8 3.5Consensus 2.3 2.2 -0.5 1.5 -2.1 3.5History30 days ago 2.5 2.1 -0.7 1.6 -2.6 3.160 days ago 2.5 2.1 0.9 2.2 -0.7 3.790 days ago 2.4 2.1 2.2 3.0 1.4 4.7

Consumption Gross Fixed Inv. variation in % variation in %

Private Non-res. Inv. variation in %

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from Statistics Canada (SC). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.6 Private consumption, annual variation in %. 7 Private consumption, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.9 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.


-2

0

2

4

6


2015 2016


-20

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

Canada G7


-2

0

2

4

6

2000 2005 2010 2015

Canada G7


2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6


2015 2016


Sample Report





April 2015


2

3

4

5


2015 2016


-20

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

Canada G7


-20

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

Canada G7


4

5

6

7


2015 2016


Exports and Imports

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016BMO Capital Markets 3.6 4.7 0.2 3.0CIBC World Markets 4.4 5.2 2.3 1.9Citigroup Global Mkts 3.3 4.0 3.5 3.0Commerzbank - - - -Credit Agricole - - - -Credit Suisse - - - -DekaBank - - - -Desjardins Group 4.3 4.2 2.5 3.2Deutsche Bank - - - -DZ Bank - - - -EIU 6.9 5.4 1.0 2.1ING - - - -JPMorgan - - - -Julius Baer - - - -KBC - - - -Nomura 5.2 5.6 4.3 4.8Oxford Economics 3.7 4.6 2.6 3.3RBC Capital Markets 5.4 5.9 2.5 5.2Scotiabank 4.2 4.8 3.0 3.4Standard Chartered - - - -Toronto-Dominion Bank 4.8 5.2 3.7 3.3UBS - - - -SummaryMinimum 3.3 4.0 0.2 1.9Maximum 6.9 5.9 4.3 5.2Median 4.3 5.0 2.5 3.2Consensus 4.6 5.0 2.5 3.3History30 days ago 4.9 5.3 2.9 3.960 days ago 4.9 5.0 3.3 3.990 days ago 6.2 5.3 4.3 4.1


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from Statistics Canada (SC). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 10 Real exports of goods and services, annual variation in %. 11 Exports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.12 Real imports of goods and services, annual variation in %. 13 Imports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Sample Report





April 2015




16 | Industry | evolution of fcst


-10

-5

0

5

2000 2005 2010 2015

Canada G7

4

6

8

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

Canada G7

1

2

3

4


2015 2016

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

Canada G7

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016BMO Capital Markets 0.5 2.5 6.7 6.5 0.3 0.4CIBC World Markets - - 6.9 6.6 - -Citigroup Global Mkts -0.4 -0.5 6.8 6.9 -0.1 0.0Commerzbank - - - - - -Credit Agricole - - - - - -Credit Suisse - - - - - -DekaBank - - - - - -Desjardins Group - - 6.6 6.4 0.0 0.1Deutsche Bank - - 6.4 5.8 0.0 0.3DZ Bank - - - - - -EIU 1.9 2.5 6.8 6.6 - -ING - - - - - -JPMorgan - - - - - -Julius Baer - - - - - -KBC - - - - - -Nomura - - 6.7 6.7 - -Oxford Economics 1.4 1.4 6.7 6.6 - -RBC Capital Markets - - 6.4 6.3 - -Scotiabank 2.8 3.4 6.7 6.7 0.0 0.1Standard Chartered - - - - - -Toronto-Dominion Bank - - 6.8 6.8 - -UBS 3.1 2.7 6.6 6.1 - -SummaryMinimum -0.4 -0.5 6.4 5.8 -0.1 0.0Maximum 3.1 3.4 6.9 6.9 0.3 0.4Median 1.6 2.5 6.7 6.6 0.0 0.1Consensus 1.5 2.0 6.7 6.5 0.0 0.2History30 days ago 1.4 2.1 6.7 6.5 0.0 0.260 days ago 1.9 2.1 6.6 6.4 0.1 0.290 days ago 2.3 2.5 6.6 6.4 0.1 0.3

Industry Unemployment Fiscal Balance variation in % % of active pop. % of GDP

Industry, Unemployment and Fiscal Balance

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real and monetary sector data are from Statistics Canada (SC) and the Department of Finance (DF). See below for details. Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.14 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: SC.15 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: SC.16 Industrial production, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.17 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: DF.

Sample Report





April 2015


18 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | in %


19 | Inflation | Q1 12-Q4 16 | in %


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the Bank of Canada (BoC). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.18 Inflation, annual average variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %.19 Inflation, annual variation of quarterly average consumer price index (CPI) in %. 20 Inflation, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.21 Inflation, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.22 Inflation, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016BMO Capital Markets 1.3 2.2CIBC World Markets 0.8 2.2Citigroup Global Mkts 1.1 1.7Commerzbank 1.0 2.0Credit Agricole 1.7 2.2Credit Suisse 0.8 2.6DekaBank 1.4 2.2Desjardins Group 0.8 2.6Deutsche Bank 1.2 2.0DZ Bank - -EIU 0.7 2.3ING 0.7 2.3JPMorgan - -Julius Baer 1.5 2.0KBC 1.1 2.1Nomura 0.5 2.0Oxford Economics 0.8 2.2RBC Capital Markets 0.9 2.8Scotiabank 1.0 2.1Standard Chartered 0.4 1.2Toronto-Dominion Bank 0.4 2.1UBS - -SummaryMinimum 0.4 1.2Maximum 1.7 2.8Median 0.9 2.2Consensus 1.0 2.1History30 days ago 1.2 2.160 days ago 1.3 2.190 days ago 1.8 2.0Additional ForecastsCentral Bank (Jan. 2015) 1.2 2.0IMF (Oct. 2014) 1.9 2.0OECD (Nov. 2014) 1.8 -

0%

20%

40%

60%

< -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 > 3.0



0

1

2

3



-2

0

2

4

2000 2005 2010 2015

Canada G7

1

2

3

4



0

1

2

3

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

Canada G7

Sample Report





April 2015


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016BMO Capital Markets 0.75 1.50 0.55 1.36 1.65 2.10CIBC World Markets 0.75 1.25 0.70 1.20 1.90 2.65Citigroup Global Mkts 0.75 - - - 1.75 -Commerzbank - - - - - -Credit Agricole 0.75 1.25 - - - -Credit Suisse - - - - - -DekaBank 0.75 2.50 1.30 2.85 2.40 3.25Desjardins Group 0.75 1.25 0.65 1.40 1.85 2.40Deutsche Bank 0.75 - 1.00 - 2.60 -DZ Bank - - - - - -EIU - - 0.90 1.50 1.70 2.60ING 0.50 1.50 0.60 1.70 2.30 3.20JPMorgan 0.50 - - - - -Julius Baer 0.75 1.50 - - 2.30 3.75KBC 1.25 - - - 2.20 -Nomura 0.50 1.25 0.55 1.30 1.55 2.25Oxford Economics - - 0.80 1.70 - -RBC Capital Markets 0.75 2.00 0.85 2.15 2.55 3.45Scotiabank 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 2.00 2.55Standard Chartered - - - - - -Toronto-Dominion Bank 0.75 1.00 0.70 0.95 1.95 2.40UBS 1.25 2.75 1.40 2.85 2.00 3.25SummaryMinimum 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.55 2.10Maximum 1.25 2.75 1.40 2.85 2.60 3.75Median 0.75 1.38 0.70 1.45 2.00 2.63Consensus 0.75 1.52 0.81 1.62 2.05 2.82History30 days ago 0.67 1.55 0.89 1.77 2.06 2.8560 days ago 0.91 1.84 1.14 2.06 2.48 3.1490 days ago 1.37 2.30 1.52 2.42 2.90 3.55

Target for the 3-Month T-Bill 10-Year BondOvernight Rate in % Rate in % Yield in %

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the Bank of Canada (BoC). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.23 Target for the overnight rate in % (eop). Source: BoC.24 Target for the overnight rate, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.25 10-year benchmark bond yield (eop).26 10-year benchmark bond yield, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.


2

3

4

5


2015 2016


0

2

4

6

2000 2005 2010 2015

CanadaUnited StatesEuro area


0

2

4

6

8

2000 2005 2010 2015

CanadaUnited StatesEuro area


0

1

2

3

4


2015 2016


Sample Report





April 2015

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

< 0.90 1.00 1.10 1.20 1.30 1.40 1.50 1.60 > 1.60

Monetary Sector | Exchange rate

27 | Exchange Rate | CAD per USD

29 | CAD per USD 2015 | evol. of fcst

28 | Exchange Rate | CAD per USD

30 | CAD per USD 2016 | evol. of fcst

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the Bank of Canada (BoC). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.27 Exchange rate, CAD per USD (eop).28 Quarterly exchange rate, CAD per USD (eop).29 Exchange rate, evolution of 2015 forecast during the last 18 months.30 Exchange rate, evolution of 2016 forecast during the last 18 months.31 Exchange rate, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast

interval in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016BMO Capital Markets 1.25 1.20CIBC World Markets 1.26 1.24Citigroup Global Mkts 1.35 1.35Commerzbank 1.30 -Credit Agricole 1.22 1.16Credit Suisse - -DekaBank 1.26 1.22Desjardins Group 1.24 1.18Deutsche Bank 1.30 -DZ Bank - -EIU 1.32 1.25ING 1.32 1.33JPMorgan - -Julius Baer 1.19 1.15KBC 1.24 -Nomura 1.27 1.27Oxford Economics 1.22 1.15RBC Capital Markets 1.33 1.29Scotiabank 1.33 1.30Standard Chartered 1.26 -Toronto-Dominion Bank 1.30 1.18UBS 1.10 1.10SummaryMinimum 1.10 1.10Maximum 1.35 1.35Median 1.26 1.22Consensus 1.27 1.22History30 days ago 1.25 1.2160 days ago 1.19 1.1790 days ago 1.16 1.14

31 | CAD per USD 2015 | Panelist Distribution

Exchange Rate | CAD per USD

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4



0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

2000 2005 2010 2015

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4



0.97

1.07

1.17

1.27

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

Sample Report





April 2015

0%

20%

40%

60%

< -5.00 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 > 2.00






Individual Forecasts 2015 2016BMO Capital Markets -2.9 -1.9CIBC World Markets -3.6 -2.2Citigroup Global Mkts -4.1 -3.6Commerzbank - -Credit Agricole -2.2 -1.7Credit Suisse -2.5 -DekaBank -2.0 -1.0Desjardins Group -2.8 -2.0Deutsche Bank -1.7 -1.4DZ Bank - -EIU -2.3 -2.6ING - -JPMorgan - -Julius Baer - -KBC - -Nomura -2.8 -2.2Oxford Economics -2.6 -2.3RBC Capital Markets -2.8 -1.2Scotiabank -3.4 -2.9Standard Chartered -1.8 -1.8Toronto-Dominion Bank -3.5 -2.3UBS -1.9 -1.8SummaryMinimum -4.1 -3.6Maximum -1.7 -1.0Median -2.7 -2.0Consensus -2.7 -2.1History30 days ago -2.7 -2.260 days ago -2.5 -2.090 days ago -2.2 -1.7



-6

-4

-2

0

2

4



-4

-2

0

2

4

2000 2005 2010 2015

Canada G7

-6

-4

-2

0

2



-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from Statistics Canada (SC). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.32 Current account balance as % of GDP.33 4-quarter moving average of current account balance as % of GDP.34 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.35 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.36 Current account balance as % of GDP, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration


Sample Report





April 2015

Fact Sheet

Canada in the Region


Canada5.0%

United States49.0%

Japan13.0%

Germany10.8%

United Kingdom

8.3%

France8.0%

Italy6.0%

Canada4.7%

United States42.4%

Japan16.9%

Germany10.8%

United Kingdom

8.6%

France8.5%

Italy8.0%

U.S.A.50.6%

EU-2710.9%

China11.0%

Mexico5.5%

Other22.0%

U.S.A.74.5%

EU-278.5%

Asia ex-Japan7.8%

Other9.2%

Other5.7%


Mineral Fuels11.7%

Food7.4%

Other6.2%


Ores & Metals8.1%

Mineral Fuels28.0%

Food10.8%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1202005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• Endowed with energy resources • High household debt

.

• Large dependence on the U. S economy

• Commitment to medium-term fiscal stability• NAFTA membership facilitates trade with the U.S.

Energy (2012)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 19,139Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 13,354Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 616Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 525Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 3,856Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 2,352CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 551

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: Aaa StableS&P: AAA StableFitch Ratings: AAA Stable


Transportation (2013) Airports: 1,467Railways (km): 46,552Roadways (km): 1,042,300Waterways (km): 636Chief Ports: Montreal, Saint John, Vancouver

.

Official name: CanadaCapital: Ottawa (1.2m)Other cities: Toronto (5.4m)

Montreal (3.8m)Area (km2): 9,984,670Population (million, 2014 est.): 35.5Population density (per km2, 2014): 3.6Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 0.8Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 81.5Illiteracy rate (%, 2003): 1.0Language: English, FrenchMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT-3.30 to GMT-8

Prime Minister: Stephen HarperLast elections: 2 May 2011Next elections: 19 October 2015Central Bank Governor: Stephen S. Poloz

Sample Report



FOCUSECONOMICS Japan


April 2015

Japan

REAL SECTOR | Japan’s economy exits recession in Q4; growth revised downward on falling investmentAlthough revised data confirmed that the Japanese economy exited recession in Q4, growth in the final quarter of 2014 was lower than initially expected. GDP expanded 1.5% in Q4 over the previous quarter in seasonally adjusted annualized terms (SAAR), according to new data released on 11 March. The reading was below the 2.2% increase reported in the first release. On an annual basis, economic activity fell 0.8% in Q4, which exceeded the 0.5% drop tallied in the first estimate.

The downwardly revised figure showed that domestic demand was weaker than previously estimated, while the contribution to growth from the external sector was left unchanged. Although growth in both private consumption and public spending fared better compared to the initial estimate, expanding 2.0% (previously reported: +1.1% quarter-on-quarter SAAR) and 1.2% (previously reported: +0.4% qoq SAAR) respectively, a downward revision to investment drove down overall GDP. Gross fixed capital formation declined 0.1% (previously reported: +0.1% qoq SAAR) and private non-residential investment contracted 0.3% (previously reported: +0.4% qoq SAAR).

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) expects the economy to expand between 1.8% and 2.3% in the fiscal year 2015, which ends in March 2016. In the subsequent fiscal

The economy rebounded in Q4 as the negative impact of the VAT hike faded and the weakening of the yen and lower oil prices bolstered business sentiment. More recent economic data suggest that private consumption is now supporting growth, reflecting improvements in the labor market and rising wages. Against this backdrop, consumer confidence hit a six-month high in February. Moreover, despite moderating, the manufacturing PMI remained in expansion mode in March for the 10th consecutive month.

Although the low oil price environment and a weak yen are supporting economic growth, the limited progress on implementing the much-needed structural reforms continues to dampen the country’s economic outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 0.9% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month’s estimate. The panel projects economic growth of 1.5% in 2016.

Overall inflation fell from January’s 2.4% to 2.2% in February, which represented the lowest rate since March 2014. Although the slump in oil prices and still-weak economic growth are threatening authorities’ efforts to pull Japan out of decades of deflation, at the 16–17 March monetary policy meeting, the Central Bank decided not to expand its stimulus program further. The FocusEconomics panel sees inflation averaging 0.8% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. Next year, the panel expects inflation to be at 1.0%.

Outlook moderates


Japan

2011-13 2014-16 2017-19Population (million): 128 127 125GDP (USD bn): 5,593 4,214 4,134GDP per capita (USD): 43,818 33,251 32,967GDP growth (%): 1.0 0.8 1.1Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -9.2 -7.2 -4.7Public Debt (% of GDP): 208 214 215Inflation (%): 0.0 1.5 1.6Current Account (% of GDP): 1.3 1.6 2.5

Ricard TornéSenior Economist


Note: Quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted annualized changes and annual variation of GDP in %.Source: Cabinet Office (CO) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015

Quarter-on-quarter saar

Year-on-year

%

Sample Report





April 2015

year, the BoJ sees GDP growth of between 1.5% and 1.7%. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP expanding 0.9% in calendar year 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. In 2016, the panel sees the economy growing 1.5%.

REAL SECTOR | Decline in manufacturing PMI continues in MarchThe Markit/JMMA Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) declined from the revised 51.6 in February (previously reported: 51.5) to 50.4 in March. As a result, the index now sits at the lowest level in 10 months and its gradually approaching to the 50-threshold that separates expansion from contraction in the manufacturing sector.

The deterioration reflected slower rates of expansion in orders and employment. Moreover, new orders dipped into the red in March. Markit/JMMA analysts stated that, “March data highlighted a weaker improvement in operating conditions in the Japanese manufacturing sector. New orders contracted slightly, while production growth slowed to a moderate pace. Subsequently, employment growth eased to the weakest pace in the current sequence of expansion, while buying activity declined for the first time since May 2014, albeit at a fractional rate. Meanwhile, new orders from abroad increased, with a favourable yen/dollar rate helping to improve price competitiveness.”

REAL SECTOR | Industrial production records largest drop in nearly four years in FebruaryIn February, industrial production declined 3.4% over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, which contrasted the revised 3.8% increase recorded in January (previously reported: +4.0% month-on-month). The print exceeded the 1.9% contraction that market analysts had expected and represented the largest decline since March 2011.

According to the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, the categories that made the greatest contributions to the monthly fall were machinery, transport equipment and electronic parts and devices. Despite February’s disappointing performance, the government maintained its general assessment of industrial production, stating that “recovering moderately”.

On an annual basis, industrial output fell 2.6% in February, which followed the 2.8% decrease tallied in the previous month. As a result, annual average growth in industrial production ticked down from 1.0% in January to 0.2% in February.

Meanwhile, the Survey of Production Forecast showed that manufacturers are becoming more optimistic. They now expect industrial output to have recorded a month-on-month 2.0% decline in March, which is above the 3.2% drop that was forecast in the previous month’s survey. Manufacturers expect a 3.6% expansion in April.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see industrial production expanding 2.4% in 2015, which is up 0.4 percentage points over the previous month’s projection. In 2016, the panel expects industrial production to rise 2.5%.

REAL SECTOR | Machinery orders contract in JanuaryCore machinery orders (a leading indicator of capital spending over a three- to six-month period) contracted in January for the first time in three months. Headline machinery orders (private sector, excluding volatile orders) fell 1.7%

Industrial Production | variation in %

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally-adjusted industrial production and year-on-year growth rate in %.Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) and FocusEconomics calculations.

-12

-6

0

6

12

-6

-3

0

3

6




%%


Note: Markit/JMMA Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index. Readings above 50 indicate an expansion in the manufacturing sector while readings below 50 indicate a contraction.Source: JMMA and Markit.

45

50

55

60

Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15

Sample Report





April 2015

in January over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, which contrasted the 8.3% increase recorded in December. The print, however, was less than market analysts’ forecasts for a 4.1% drop.

Overall manufacturing orders recorded the largest drop in eight months, while growth in non-manufacturing books decelerated in January. Export orders recovered strongly partially due to the deprecation of the yen.

Compared to the same month of last year, core machinery orders rose 1.9% in January, which marked a sharp slowdown over the 11.4% increase tallied in the previous month. As a result, the trend continued to point downward; annual average growth in core machinery orders decreased from 4.0% in December to 2.7% in January, which represented a 16-month low.

Despite the deterioration observed in January, the Cabinet Office maintained its assessment of machinery orders, stating that, “they are in a gradual recovery.” Businesses surveyed by the Cabinet Office predict that there will be a 1.5% increase in the first quarter, following the 0.4% increase tallied in the fourth quarter.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect private non-residential investment to rise 1.0% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points over last month’s projection. In 2016, the panel sees private non-residential investment expanding 2.9%. In addition, FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect gross fixed investment to drop 0.2% in 2015, which is unchanged over last month’s projection. In 2016, the panel sees gross fixed investment growth at 1.8%.

OUTLOOK | Consumer confidence hits six-month high in FebruaryConsumer sentiment rose from the 39.1 points recorded in January to 40.7 points in February. The print represented a six-month high and came in above the 39.5 points that analysts had expected. The consumer confidence index measures consumers’ expectations for the next six months on a scale of 0–100, where 100 points indicates that all respondents see their living standards improving.

February’s result reflected a strong increase in the overall livelihood category as well as in consumers’ willingness to buy durable goods. Job conditions also improved markedly in February, while income growth recorded a mild gain. Against this backdrop, the government upgraded its view on consumer confidence stating that, “some recovery in the consumer mindset can be seen.”

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect private consumption to rise 0.3% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2016, the panel sees private consumption growing 1.3%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Core inflation slows to nearly one-year low in FebruaryIn February, the core consumer price index, which excludes volatile fresh food prices, fell 0.1% over the previous month. The decrease was above the 0.6% drop tallied in January and mainly reflected sharp declines in prices for clothes and footwear as well as for transportation and communication.

Annual core inflation slowed from the previous month’s 2.2% to 2.0% in February. The print slightly undershot the 2.2% that market analysts had

Core Machinery Orders | variation in %

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally-adjusted core machinery orders and year-on-year growth rate in %.Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) and FocusEconomics calculations.

-30

-15

0

15

30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15



%%

Consumer Confidence Index

Note: Index of consumer sentiment. The 50-point threshold represents the point above which consumers expect economic conditions to improve.Source: Cabinet Office (CO).

35

40

45

50


Sample Report





April 2015

expected and represented the lowest rate since March 2014. Overall inflation declined from 2.4% in January to 2.2% in February.

Core inflation for Tokyo—available one month in advance of the national figures and thus a leading indicator for countrywide inflation—remained at 2.2% in March for the fourth consecutive month, which was in line with the result that market analysts had expected.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) expects that core inflation will be between 0.4% and 1.3% in the fiscal year ending March 2016. In the following fiscal year, the BoJ sees inflation rising to somewhere between 1.5% and 2.3%. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation of 0.8% in the calendar year 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2016, the panel sees inflation at 1.0%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Bank of Japan refrains from adding stimulus while deflation fears loomAt its 16–17 March monetary policy meeting, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) voted 8–1 to maintain its monetary policy stance unchanged. The Bank also decided to continue implementing money market operations so that the monetary base—its main policy instrument—will increase at an annual pace of JPY 80 trillion (approximately USD 660 billion). The decision, which was in line with market expectations, is aimed at meeting the Central Bank’s inflation target of 2.0%.

In its March assessment of the economy, the BoJ restated that the economy has continued its moderate recovery trend. The mild recovery in the global economy—mostly in advanced nations—has prop up Japanese exports, while private consumption remained resilient due to increasing employment and income. Business investment improved slightly on the back of higher corporate profits.

Regarding price developments, while the Bank stressed that, “inflation expectations appear to be rising on the whole from a somewhat longer-term perspective,” it affirmed that inflation is likely to remain close to 0% going forward due to the oil price decline.

At the press conference held after the monetary policy meeting, Governor Haruhiko Kuroda stated that prices could decline slightly in the months to come. That said, he stressed that the lull in inflation will be temporary and that prices will pick up as the economy recovers.

The monetary base expanded 36.7% in February and reached JPY 275 trillion, which was unchanged from the result tallied in January. With these results, the Central Bank has already met its target of doubling the country’s monetary base in March 2015 as it has expanded by an accumulated 104.3% since the Bank unveiled its quantitative and qualitative easing program in April 2013.

All FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts panelists expect the collateralized overnight call rate to remain unchanged at between 0.0% and 0.1% in 2015 and 2016.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the yen to trade at 127.0 per USD by the end of 2015. For 2016, the panel projects the yen to weaken to 131.0 per USD.

Monetary Base and 10-Year Bond Yields

Note: Monetary base in JPY trillion and 10-year bond yields %.Source: Bank of Japan (BoJ) and Thomson Reuters.

80

130

180

230

280

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6


Monetary Base (JPY tr, right scale)

10-Year Bond Yields (%, left scale)

%


Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month var. of consumer price index in %.Source: Statistics Bureau (SB) and FocusEconomics calculations.

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

-1.5

0.0

1.5

3.0


Core month-on-month (left scale)Core year-on-year (right scale)CPI year-on-year (right scale)

% %

Exchange Rate | JPY per USD

Note: Daily spot of Japanese yen (JPY) against U.S. dollar (USD).Source: Thomson Reuters.

75

85

95

105

115

125


Sample Report





April 2015

EXTERNAL SECTOR | Trade balance records smallest deficit in 20 months in FebruaryIn February, nominal exports valued in yen expanded 2.4% over the same month last year, which represented a significant deceleration over the 17.0% increase recorded in January. The rise overshot the 0.3% expansion that market analysts had expected and represented the weakest pace of growth in six months.

Imports contracted again in February, falling 3.6% over the same month last year, which followed the 9.0% drop tallied in January. The print contrasted the 3.1% increase that market analysts had expected. Imports continue to fall as the decline in energy prices is cutting costs.

As a result of the drop in imports and the expansion in exports, the trade deficit narrowed to JPY 425 million (USD 3.5 billion) in February from JPY 806 million in the same month last year. Moreover, the print marked the smallest shortfall in 20 months and was less than the JPY 1.0 billion deficit economists had expected. In the 12 months up to February, the trade deficit was JPY 10.8 trillion, which was down from the JPY 11.2 trillion shortfall that was recorded in the previous month and represented the smallest deficit since November 2013.

Merchandise Trade

Note: 12-month trade balance in JPY trillion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports. Source: Ministry of Finance.

-10

0

10

20

-15

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-5

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Trade balance (JPY tn, left scale)Exports (yoy, right scale)Imports (yoy, right scale)

%

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April 2015


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Real Sector Population (million) 128 128 128 127 127 127 126 126 125 125GDP per capita (USD) 42,995 46,413 46,770 38,270 36,448 31,885 31,419 31,789 32,852 34,259GDP (USD bn) 5,505 5,936 5,968 4,873 4,631 4,041 3,970 4,003 4,120 4,279GDP (JPY bn) 482,384 471,311 475,110 480,128 487,990 501,690 514,245 529,602 543,372 557,382Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) 2.4 -2.3 0.8 1.1 1.6 1.7 2.5 3.0 2.6 2.6Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 4.7 -0.5 1.8 1.6 0.0 0.9 1.5 1.0 1.1 1.1Domestic Demand (annual variation in %) 3.0 0.5 2.6 1.9 0.0 0.2 1.3 0.9 1.0 1.3Private Consumption (ann. variation in %) 2.8 0.3 2.3 2.1 -1.2 0.3 1.3 0.6 0.7 0.9Government Consumption (ann. var. in %) 1.9 1.2 1.7 1.9 0.3 - - - - -Gross Fixed Investment (ann. var. in %) -0.2 1.5 3.2 3.2 2.5 -0.2 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.4Private Non-residential Inv. (ann. var. in %) 0.7 4.1 3.6 0.6 3.8 1.0 2.9 2.6 2.4 2.3Government Investment (ann. var. in %) 0.1 -7.7 2.0 8.0 3.7 - - - - -Exports (G&S, annual variation in %) 24.5 -0.4 -0.1 1.5 8.2 5.8 4.5 5.1 4.9 4.4Imports (G&S, annual variation in %) 11.1 5.9 5.3 3.0 7.2 3.3 4.1 4.4 4.0 3.9Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 15.6 -2.6 0.2 -0.6 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.0 1.7 1.5Nominal Retail Sales (annual var. in %) 2.7 -1.0 1.8 1.0 1.7 - - - - -Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 5.1 4.6 4.3 4.0 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3Machinery Orders (annual variation in %) 7.0 7.8 -0.9 5.8 4.0 - - - - -Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -9.5 -9.5 -9.0 -9.1 -8.3 -6.9 -6.5 -5.1 -4.7 -4.3Public Debt (% of GDP) 191 203 210 212 211 214 216 216 215 214Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M2 in %) 2.3 3.2 2.6 4.2 3.6 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 1.6 2.4 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) -0.7 -0.3 0.0 0.4 2.7 0.8 1.0 2.0 1.5 1.4Inflation (Core, annual variation in %, eop) -0.8 -0.1 -0.2 1.2 2.6 - - - - -Inflation (Core, annual average variation in %) -1.0 -0.3 -0.1 0.4 2.6 - - - - -Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %, aop) -0.1 1.5 -0.9 1.3 3.2 - - - - -Overnight Call Rate (%, eop) 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.08 0.08 0.15 0.33 0.593-Month Interest Rate (%, eop) 0.34 0.33 0.31 0.22 0.18 0.14 0.18 0.26 0.57 0.9610-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 1.12 0.99 0.80 0.74 0.33 0.53 0.70 0.95 1.39 1.64Stock Market (Nikkei 225 variation in %) -3.0 -17.3 22.9 56.7 7.1 - - - - -Exchange Rate (JPY per USD, eop) 81.2 77.0 86.7 105.3 119.7 127.0 131.0 130.8 130.1 127.7Exchange Rate (JPY per USD, aop) 87.7 79.7 79.8 97.6 105.9 122.8 128.2 130.9 130.5 128.9External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 3.9 2.1 1.0 0.7 0.5 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.6Current Account Balance (USD bn) 217.2 126.5 58.5 33.5 24.6 84.3 81.4 93.5 103.4 112.4Trade Balance (USD bn) 75.6 -32.7 -87.3 -117.5 -122.4 - - - - - Quarterly Data Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) -1.4 -0.8 -1.3 0.8 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.5Economic Growth (GDP, saar in %) -2.6 1.5 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.4Private Consumption (saar in %) 1.1 2.0 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.7Gross Fixed Investment (saar in %) -2.4 -0.1 2.6 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.6 2.2 2.7Private Non-residential Inv. (saar in %) -0.6 -0.3 5.3 3.5 3.2 3.1 3.2 2.8 2.6 2.8Exports (G&S, saar in %) 6.2 11.5 7.0 5.3 4.9 4.6 5.0 4.7 4.7 4.8Imports (G&S, saar in %) 4.3 5.3 7.2 3.9 4.2 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.3 5.3Industrial Production (annual variation in %) -1.0 -1.5 -1.6 2.3 4.6 3.9 2.4 2.7 2.5 2.6Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4TANKAN Large Manufact. (0-point threshold) 13 12 - - - - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual average var. in %, aop) 3.3 2.6 2.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1Overnight Call Rate (%, eop) 0.10 0.10 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.083-Month Interest Rate (%, eop) 0.21 0.18 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.15 0.18 0.1810-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 0.53 0.33 0.38 0.41 0.46 0.53 0.52 0.56 0.65 0.70Exchange Rate (JPY per USD, eop) 109.7 119.7 120.8 122.7 124.5 127.0 127.2 127.7 128.8 131.0Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 1.3 1.2 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.1 1.8Current Account Balance (USD bn) 15.6 13.1 20.1 21.8 20.1 21.2 18.7 18.9 20.0 18.6 Monthly Data Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15Industrial Production (s.a. mom var. in %) -3.4 0.4 -1.9 2.9 0.4 -0.5 0.8 3.8 -3.4 -Nominal Retail Sales (annual var. in %) -0.6 0.6 1.2 2.3 1.4 0.5 0.1 -2.0 -1.8 -Unemployment (% of active population) 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.5 -Machinery Orders (s.a. mom var. in %) 8.8 3.5 4.7 2.9 -6.4 1.3 8.3 -1.7 - -Consumer Confidence (50-point threshold) 41.1 41.5 41.2 39.9 38.9 37.7 38.8 39.1 40.7 -Markit/JMMA Manufacturing PMI (50-threshold) 51.5 50.5 52.2 51.7 52.4 52.0 52.0 52.2 51.6 50.4Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.2 2.9 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.2 -Inflation (Core, annual variation in %) 3.4 3.4 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.0 -Inflation (Core Tokyo, annual variation in %) 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2Exchange Rate (JPY per USD, eop) 101.3 102.8 104.1 109.7 112.3 118.6 119.7 117.5 119.5 -Merchandise Exports (annual var. in %) -2.0 3.9 -1.3 6.9 9.6 4.9 12.9 17.0 2.4 -

Sample Report





April 2015


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Cabinet Office (CO). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.1 GDP, annual variation in %.2 Quarterly GDP (seasonally adjusted), quarter-on-quarter annualized variation in %.3 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

< 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 > 1.6


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016BBVA Research 1.3 1.2Berenberg 0.8 1.5BMO Capital Markets 0.7 1.5BNP Paribas 0.4 0.8Capital Economics 0.0 1.5Citigroup Global Mkts 1.0 2.0Commerzbank 0.8 1.3Credit Agricole 1.3 1.5Credit Suisse 0.7 1.0Daiwa 1.0 1.9DekaBank 0.4 1.0Deutsche Bank 0.9 1.8DIW Berlin 0.9 1.5DZ Bank 1.3 2.0EIU 1.3 2.0Frontier Strategy Group 1.2 1.1Goldman Sachs 0.8 1.2HSBC 0.8 1.1ING 1.2 1.7Intesa Sanpaolo 0.8 1.3Japan Research Inst. 0.9 1.7JPMorgan 1.0 1.5Julius Baer 1.0 1.5KBC 1.3 1.3Lloyds TSB 0.9 1.8Mizuho Research Inst. 1.2 2.0Nomura 1.2 1.7Nordea 0.8 1.3Oxford Economics 0.9 1.8Raiffeisen Research 0.7 1.3Scotiabank 0.6 1.2Standard Chartered 1.0 1.2UBS 1.0 1.6Unicredit 0.8 1.4SummaryMinimum 0.0 0.8Maximum 1.3 2.0Median 0.9 1.5Consensus 0.9 1.5History30 days ago 1.0 1.560 days ago 1.0 1.490 days ago 1.0 1.4Additional ForecastsCentral Bank (FY, Jan. 2015) 1.8-2.3 1.5-1.7IMF (Jan. 2015) 0.6 0.8OECD (Nov. 2014) 0.8 1.0

1 | Real GDP | 2000 - 2019 | var. in %


2 | Real GDP | Q1 12-Q4 16 | var. in %


-6

-3

0

3

6

2000 2005 2010 2015

JapanG7World

-8

-4

0

4

8

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

Japan G7

-2

-1

0

1

2

3



-2

-1

0

1

2

3




Sample Report





April 2015


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016BBVA Research 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.8 - -Berenberg 0.0 1.2 -1.0 2.4 - -BMO Capital Markets - - - - - -BNP Paribas 0.0 1.0 -0.8 1.5 - -Capital Economics -0.5 1.0 0.5 1.8 1.7 1.5Citigroup Global Mkts 0.3 1.5 - - 2.4 4.5Commerzbank - - - - - -Credit Agricole - - - - - -Credit Suisse -0.1 1.0 - - 0.4 1.1Daiwa 0.3 1.3 - - 1.0 5.2DekaBank 0.0 0.7 -1.4 1.2 -1.2 1.3Deutsche Bank -0.2 1.5 -0.3 1.6 - -DIW Berlin - - - - - -DZ Bank 0.7 1.7 1.1 3.2 - -EIU 0.7 1.1 0.9 2.0 - -Frontier Strategy Group 0.5 0.6 - - - -Goldman Sachs 0.1 0.9 -0.9 1.9 -0.4 2.1HSBC 0.2 1.7 -1.9 0.6 - -ING - - - - - -Intesa Sanpaolo 1.0 1.3 - - 1.0 1.9Japan Research Inst. 0.1 1.1 - - 0.8 3.7JPMorgan 0.7 - - - 2.5 -Julius Baer - - - - - -KBC - - - - - -Lloyds TSB - - - - - -Mizuho Research Inst. 0.4 1.5 - - 1.4 3.2Nomura 0.1 1.6 - - 1.7 4.5Nordea - - - - - -Oxford Economics 0.8 2.1 0.1 1.0 - -Raiffeisen Research - - - - - -Scotiabank - - - - - -Standard Chartered - - - - - -UBS 0.3 1.3 -0.1 2.4 - -Unicredit - - - - - -SummaryMinimum -0.5 0.6 -1.9 0.6 -1.2 1.1Maximum 1.0 2.1 1.3 3.2 2.5 5.2Median 0.3 1.3 -0.2 1.8 1.0 2.7Consensus 0.3 1.3 -0.2 1.8 1.0 2.9History30 days ago 0.3 1.3 -0.2 1.9 1.1 2.860 days ago 0.5 1.2 0.0 1.7 1.6 2.790 days ago 0.4 1.2 -0.1 1.1 2.0 2.4

Consumption Private Non-res. Inv. variation in % variation in %

Gross Fixed Inv. variation in %

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Cabinet Office (CO). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.6 Private consumption, annual variation in %. 7 Private consumption, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.8 Private non-residential fixed investment, annual variation in %.9 Private non-residential fixed investment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.


0

2

4

6


2015 2016


-20

-10

0

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

Japan G7


-2

0

2

4

2000 2005 2010 2015

Japan G7


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5


2015 2016


Sample Report





April 2015


2

3

4

5

6


2015 2016


-20

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

Japan G7


-30

-15

0

15

30

2000 2005 2010 2015

Japan G7


4

5

6

7

8


2015 2016


Exports and Imports

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016BBVA Research 3.8 3.4 4.8 4.3Berenberg - - - -BMO Capital Markets - - - -BNP Paribas - - - -Capital Economics 1.0 1.0 2.7 1.0Citigroup Global Mkts 7.2 4.2 3.7 2.8Commerzbank - - - -Credit Agricole - - - -Credit Suisse 5.6 2.1 1.4 1.9Daiwa 7.1 5.3 2.4 4.4DekaBank 6.0 5.2 2.1 4.0Deutsche Bank 8.0 7.6 4.4 6.8DIW Berlin - - - -DZ Bank 6.4 4.3 3.7 4.4EIU 6.6 6.5 4.1 3.9Frontier Strategy Group 5.3 4.8 3.4 3.4Goldman Sachs 6.6 6.0 3.2 5.2HSBC 6.1 3.8 3.7 6.4ING - - - -Intesa Sanpaolo 2.8 3.3 2.7 3.4Japan Research Inst. 5.6 4.5 2.9 4.2JPMorgan 7.8 - 5.9 -Julius Baer - - - -KBC - - - -Lloyds TSB - - - -Mizuho Research Inst. 6.0 6.1 2.4 4.7Nomura 6.7 4.1 2.5 5.0Nordea - - - -Oxford Economics 4.6 3.4 3.6 4.6Raiffeisen Research - - - -Scotiabank - - - -Standard Chartered - - - -UBS 6.4 4.6 3.1 4.0Unicredit - - - -SummaryMinimum 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.0Maximum 8.0 7.6 5.9 6.8Median 6.1 4.4 3.2 4.3Consensus 5.8 4.5 3.3 4.1History30 days ago 5.7 4.8 3.0 4.160 days ago 5.0 4.6 2.7 4.390 days ago 4.5 4.6 2.8 4.4

Exports Importsvariation in % variation in %

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Cabinet Office (CO). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 10 Real exports of goods and services, annual variation in %. 11 Exports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.12 Real imports of goods and services, annual variation in %. 13 Imports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Sample Report





April 2015

Real Sector | Additional Forecasts

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016BBVA Research - - - - -7.0 -6.5Berenberg 2.4 2.2 3.6 3.6 -6.5 -6.3BMO Capital Markets - - 3.8 3.6 - -BNP Paribas - - 3.3 2.9 -7.3 -6.9Capital Economics - - 3.4 3.3 -6.5 -6.0Citigroup Global Mkts 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.2 -6.6 -6.2Commerzbank - - - - - -Credit Agricole - - 3.5 3.5 -8.3 -8.1Credit Suisse 2.4 1.8 3.4 3.0 -6.3 -6.0Daiwa 3.7 4.1 3.3 3.2 - -DekaBank - - 3.5 3.6 -7.5 -7.0Deutsche Bank 3.3 3.2 3.4 3.3 - -DIW Berlin - - 3.8 3.8 - -DZ Bank - - 3.7 3.8 -6.8 -6.2EIU 2.9 2.7 3.4 3.3 -6.6 -5.7Frontier Strategy Group 2.0 2.0 3.6 3.6 - -Goldman Sachs 0.7 2.3 3.4 3.4 - -HSBC 3.1 3.5 3.3 3.2 - -ING - - - - - -Intesa Sanpaolo 1.9 2.4 3.7 3.7 - -Japan Research Inst. 2.3 1.0 3.4 3.4 - -JPMorgan 3.4 - 3.5 - -6.5 -Julius Baer - - - - - -KBC - - - - - -Lloyds TSB - - - - - -Mizuho Research Inst. 2.2 3.5 3.4 3.3 - -Nomura 2.7 2.4 3.4 3.3 -7.1 -7.4Nordea - - - - - -Oxford Economics 1.0 2.4 3.5 3.6 -7.0 -6.1Raiffeisen Research - - - - -7.3 -6.0Scotiabank 2.0 1.7 - - -7.0 -6.5Standard Chartered - - - - - -UBS 1.6 2.4 3.3 3.2 -6.2 -6.2Unicredit - - - - -6.5 -6.3SummaryMinimum 0.7 1.0 3.3 2.9 -8.3 -8.1Maximum 3.7 4.1 3.8 3.8 -6.2 -5.7Median 2.4 2.4 3.4 3.4 -6.8 -6.3Consensus 2.4 2.5 3.5 3.4 -6.9 -6.5History30 days ago 2.0 2.6 3.5 3.4 -6.9 -6.360 days ago 1.6 2.6 3.5 3.4 -7.0 -6.490 days ago 1.2 2.5 3.6 3.5 -7.0 -6.5

Industry Unemployment Fiscal Balance variation in % % of active pop. % of GDP

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), the Statistics Bureau (SB) and the Ministry of Finance (MOF). See below for details. Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.14 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: METI.15 Industrial production, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months. 16 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: SB.17 General government balance as % of GDP. Source: MOF.

Industry, Unemployment and Fiscal Balance

-12

-8

-4

0

2000 2005 2010 2015

Japan G7


3

5

7

9

2000 2005 2010 2015

Japan G7


-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

Japan G7


1

2

3

4


2015 2016


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April 2015


18 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | in %


19 | Inflation | Q1 12-Q4 16 | in %


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the Statistics Bureau (SB). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.18 Inflation, annual average variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %.19 Inflation, annual variation of quarterly average consumer price index (CPI) in %. 20 Inflation, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.21 Inflation, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.22 Inflation, Panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016BBVA Research 1.3 1.5Berenberg 0.8 0.9BMO Capital Markets 0.8 0.4BNP Paribas - -Capital Economics 1.0 1.0Citigroup Global Mkts 0.7 1.2Commerzbank 0.7 0.7Credit Agricole 1.5 1.2Credit Suisse 0.5 0.4Daiwa 0.6 1.0DekaBank 1.4 1.6Deutsche Bank 0.7 0.9DIW Berlin 0.6 0.3DZ Bank 1.1 1.5EIU 1.0 1.6Frontier Strategy Group 1.1 1.2Goldman Sachs 0.7 1.2HSBC 0.6 0.8ING 1.4 1.0Intesa Sanpaolo 1.4 0.8Japan Research Inst. 1.0 1.3JPMorgan 0.6 -Julius Baer 0.4 0.5KBC 0.7 1.3Lloyds TSB 0.4 0.6Mizuho Research Inst. 0.4 0.9Nomura 0.8 1.2Nordea 0.6 0.6Oxford Economics 0.3 0.6Raiffeisen Research 0.3 1.5Scotiabank 1.1 1.3Standard Chartered 0.5 1.4UBS 0.9 1.0Unicredit 0.9 1.3SummaryMinimum 0.3 0.3Maximum 1.5 1.6Median 0.7 1.0Consensus 0.8 1.0History30 days ago 0.9 1.160 days ago 1.2 1.290 days ago 1.5 1.2Additional ForecastsCentral Bank (FY, Jan. 2015) 0.4-1.3 1.5-2.3IMF (Oct. 2014) 2.0 2.6OECD (Nov. 2014) 1.8 1.6

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

< -0.5 -0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.9 2.3 > 2.3



-1

0

1

2

3



-2

0

2

4

2000 2005 2010 2015

Japan G7

-1

0

1

2

3



-2

0

2

4

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

Japan G7

Sample Report





April 2015


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016BBVA Research 0.10 0.10 - - - -Berenberg - - - - - -BMO Capital Markets 0.05 0.05 0.10 0.10 0.45 0.65BNP Paribas 0.10 0.10 - - - -Capital Economics 0.05 0.05 - - 0.50 0.50Citigroup Global Mkts 0.10 0.10 - - 0.43 0.58Commerzbank 0.10 - 0.15 - 0.50 -Credit Agricole 0.05 0.05 0.10 0.10 0.35 0.25Credit Suisse 0.05 0.05 - - 0.51 -Daiwa 0.10 0.10 - - 0.54 0.76DekaBank 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.75 1.00Deutsche Bank 0.10 - 0.15 - 0.60 -DIW Berlin - - - - - -DZ Bank - - - - - -EIU - - 0.20 0.60 0.40 1.00Frontier Strategy Group - - - - - -Goldman Sachs 0.10 0.10 0.20 0.20 0.60 1.00HSBC 0.05 0.05 0.10 0.10 0.40 0.60ING 0.00 0.00 0.15 0.15 0.50 0.50Intesa Sanpaolo 0.10 0.10 0.16 0.15 - -Japan Research Inst. 0.10 0.10 - - - -JPMorgan 0.05 - - - 0.35 -Julius Baer 0.10 0.10 - - 0.60 0.85KBC 0.10 - - - 1.35 -Lloyds TSB - - - - - -Mizuho Research Inst. 0.05 0.05 0.17 0.17 0.50 0.65Nomura 0.07 0.07 - - 0.60 1.05Nordea 0.10 0.10 - - - -Oxford Economics - - 0.12 0.13 0.18 0.26Raiffeisen Research 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.40 0.50Scotiabank - - - - - -Standard Chartered 0.10 0.10 - - - -UBS 0.05 0.05 0.20 0.25 0.60 1.00Unicredit 0.10 0.10 - - - -SummaryMinimum 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.10 0.18 0.25Maximum 0.10 0.10 0.20 0.60 1.35 1.05Median 0.10 0.10 0.15 0.14 0.50 0.65Consensus 0.08 0.08 0.14 0.18 0.53 0.70History30 days ago 0.08 0.08 0.14 0.20 0.53 0.7060 days ago 0.08 0.08 0.14 0.19 0.53 0.7090 days ago 0.08 0.08 0.16 0.23 0.61 0.82

Overnight 3-Month 10-Year Bond Call Rate in % Interest Rate in % Yield in %

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the Bank of Japan (BoJ), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve Board (Fed). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.23 Overnight Call Rate in % (eop). 24 Overnight Call Rate in %, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.25 10-year benchmark bond yield (eop).26 10-year benchmark bond yield, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.


0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6


2015 2016


0

2

4

6

2000 2005 2010 2015

JapanUnited StatesGermany


0

2

4

6

8

2000 2005 2010 2015

JapanEuro areaUnited States


0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3


2015 2016


Sample Report





April 2015

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

< 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 145 > 145


27 | Exchange Rate | JPY per USD

29 | JPY per USD 2015 | evol. of fcst

28 | Exchange Rate | JPY per USD

30 | JPY per USD 2016 | evol. of fcst

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.27 Exchange rate, JPY per USD (eop).28 Quarterly exchange rate, JPY per USD (eop).29 Exchange rate, evolution of 2015 forecast during the last 18 months.30 Exchange rate, evolution of 2016 forecast during the last 18 months.31 Exchange rate, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016BBVA Research 132.0 148.0Berenberg - -BMO Capital Markets 125.0 130.0BNP Paribas 128.0 135.0Capital Economics 140.0 140.0Citigroup Global Mkts 130.4 134.4Commerzbank 125.0 -Credit Agricole 130.0 138.0Credit Suisse 127.0 -Daiwa 120.0 120.0DekaBank 130.0 138.0Deutsche Bank 125.0 -DIW Berlin - -DZ Bank - -EIU 125.4 124.2Frontier Strategy Group - -Goldman Sachs 130.0 135.0HSBC 128.0 130.0ING 130.0 130.0Intesa Sanpaolo 124.1 123.1Japan Research Inst. 120.5 123.0JPMorgan 128.0 -Julius Baer 120.0 120.0KBC 125.0 -Lloyds TSB 125.0 125.0Mizuho Research Inst. 125.0 128.0Nomura 125.0 130.0Nordea 130.0 135.0Oxford Economics 129.3 134.1Raiffeisen Research 130.0 -Scotiabank 125.0 131.0Standard Chartered 120.0 -UBS 125.0 130.0Unicredit 132.0 -SummaryMinimum 120.0 120.0Maximum 140.0 148.0Median 126.2 130.0Consensus 127.0 131.0History30 days ago 126.8 130.260 days ago 126.8 131.390 days ago 124.4 128.6

31 | JPY per USD 2015 | Panelist Distribution

Exchange Rate | JPY per USD

90

110

130

150



75

90

105

120

135

2000 2005 2010 2015

70

90

110

130

150



75

95

115

135

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

Sample Report





April 2015

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

< -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 > 5.5






Individual Forecasts 2015 2016BBVA Research 1.0 0.8Berenberg 1.0 1.2BMO Capital Markets - -BNP Paribas - -Capital Economics 3.0 2.0Citigroup Global Mkts 2.8 2.7Commerzbank - -Credit Agricole 0.9 1.0Credit Suisse 2.7 1.6Daiwa 3.4 3.8DekaBank 2.0 1.5Deutsche Bank 3.5 3.4DIW Berlin - -DZ Bank - -EIU 3.7 6.0Frontier Strategy Group - -Goldman Sachs 2.3 2.5HSBC 2.7 0.8ING - -Intesa Sanpaolo - -Japan Research Inst. - -JPMorgan - -Julius Baer - -KBC - -Lloyds TSB - -Mizuho Research Inst. 2.9 2.7Nomura 3.6 3.7Nordea 1.2 1.5Oxford Economics 1.4 0.9Raiffeisen Research 1.2 1.5Scotiabank 0.9 1.2Standard Chartered 0.8 1.2UBS 1.5 1.7Unicredit 1.3 1.4SummaryMinimum 0.8 0.8Maximum 3.7 6.0Median 2.0 1.5Consensus 2.1 2.1History30 days ago 1.7 1.660 days ago 1.4 1.490 days ago 0.9 1.1



-2

0

2

4



-2

0

2

4

6

2000 2005 2010 2015

Japan G7

-2

0

2

4

6



-1

0

1

2

3

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from the the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.32 Current account balance as % of GDP.33 4-quarter moving average of current account balance as % of GDP.34 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.35 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.36 Current account balance as % of GDP, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration


Sample Report





April 2015

Fact Sheet

Japan in the Region


Japan13.0%

United States48.8%

Germany10.9%

United Kingdom

8.3%

France8.0%

Italy6.0%

Canada5.0%

Japan16.9%

United States42.4%

Germany10.8%

United Kingdom

8.6%

France8.5%

Italy8.0%

Canada4.7%

U.S.A.8.8%

Australia6.4%

EU-279.4%

Other Asia ex-Japan

26.8%China21.3%

Other27.3%

U.S.A.17.8%

EU-2710.2%

Other Asia ex-Japan

14.6%

China18.1%

Korea7.7%

Thailand5.5%

LatAm5.0%

Other21.1%

Other2.9%


Ores & Metals7.1%

Mineral Fuels33.3%

Food8.9%

Other11.1%


Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1202005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002004-06 2007-09 2010-12

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• Highly developed infrastructure • Rapidly ageing population• Net international creditor• Exclusive geographic position in a dynamic region

• Large fiscal deficit and public debt

Energy (2012)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 1,568Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 20,306Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 966Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 921Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 136Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 4,695CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 1,259

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: A1 StableS&P: AA- NegativeFitch Ratings: A+ Negative


Transportation (2013) Airports: 175Railways (km): 27,182Roadways (km): 1,210,251Waterways (km): 1,770Chief Ports: Tokyo, Yokohama, Nagoya

Official name: JapanCapital: Tokyo (35.7m)

Osaka (18.8m)Nagoya (8.9m)

Area (km2): 377,915Population (million, 2014 est.): 127Population density (per km2, 2014): 336Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): -0.1Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 84.5Illiteracy rate (%, 2002): < 1.0Language: JapaneseMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT+9

Prime Minister: Shinzō AbeLast elections: 15 December 2014Next elections: 13 January 2019Central Bank Governor: Haruhiko Kuroda

Sample Report



FOCUSECONOMICS United Kingdom


April 2015

United Kingdom

POLITICS | UK government presents 2015 budget, pledges to close the fiscal gap before the end of the next Parliament On 18 March, Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne presented the 2015 budget to the Parliament. The budget provides good news for savers and continues the reforms to pension regulations and the housing sector. While this year’s budget doesn’t bring major changes to the table compared to that of the previous year, it does represent a test for the governing party ahead of the 7 May general elections. The presentation of the budget follows the release of the updated forecast for the British economy by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), an independent budget watchdog.

The government announced that the minimum wage will increase by 3.1% starting in October 2015, rising from GBP 6.49 per hour to GBP 6.70 per hour, which represents the largest real-term increase since 2006. The budget also envisions several changes to saving incentives such as increasing the tax-free personal allowance to GBP 10,800 in 2016/2017 and to GBP 11,000 the year after, as well as introducing a new personal saving allowance of GBP 1,000 for interest receipts. The budget introduces pension reforms which, starting in

While the economy decelerated slightly in the three months through December last year, output expanded at the strongest rate in seven years in 2014. Economic data for the first months of 2015 indicate that the economy is set to remain on a solid growth trajectory. In January, retail sales posted robust growth and consumers were more confident in February. On 18 March, Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne presented the 2015 budget. The budget provides good news for savers and continues the reforms to pension regulations and the housing sector. The government set targets for the following five years, which aim at closing the fiscal gap and reducing public debt.

The economic prospects remain positive. However, uncertainties surrounding the outcome of May’s general elections could pose a risk to economic prospects. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists foresee GDP growth of 2.6% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. The panel expects the economy to expand 2.4% in 2016.

Inflation dropped from 0.3% in January to a flat figure in February, which marked the lowest level on record. With lower commodity prices, especially for oil, consumer prices are more likely than not to record negative annual variations in the next months. At its 4–5 March meeting, the Bank of England kept the Bank Rate unchanged at 0.50%. The FocusEconomics panel sees average inflation at 0.5% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2016, the panel foresees average inflation of 1.7%.

Outlook stable


United Kingdom

2011-13 2014-16 2017-19Population (million): 63.7 64.9 66.3GDP (USD bn): 2,633 2,852 3,107GDP per capita (USD): 41,343 43,916 46,882GDP growth (%): 1.3 2.5 2.4Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -7.2 -4.2 -1.2Public Debt (% of GDP): 85.0 89.5 86.0Inflation (%): 3.3 1.2 2.0Current Account (% of GDP): -3.1 -4.3 -2.7

Dirina MançellariEconomist

Fiscal deficit and public debt | % of GDP

Note: government fiscal deficil and gross public debt as % of GDP.Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS) and FocusEconomics calculations.

-12

-8

-4

0

4

20

40

60

80

100

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Public Debt (% of GDP, left scale)

Fiscal Balance (% of GDP, right scale)

%%

Sample Report





April 2015

April 2016, will give pensioners with income from an annuity the option to turn it into a cash lump-sum.

To continue supporting the housing sector, the government will introduce the Help to Buy Individual Saving Accounts (ISA) scheme, which will help first-time home buyers save for a deposit. Under the new regulations, first-time buyers will be eligible to get a GBP 50 bonus from the government for every GBP 200 they save. The bonus can go up to GBP 3,000. Help to Buy ISA is an extension of the existing Help to Buy program, which allows people to purchase a house with just a 5.0% deposit.

Chancellor Osborne stated that the government will continue to prioritize fiscal discipline by setting targets for the following five years, which aim to close the fiscal gap and bring down the level of public debt. As a result, for this year, total expenditure is expected to decrease to 39.6% of GDP, which is down from the previous year’s 40.7% of GDP. Public debt as a percentage of GDP is projected to fall marginally this year to 80.2% before dropping to 71.6% of GDP in FY 2019/2020. Furthermore, public finances will return to surplus in FY 2018/2019, which will be before the end of the next parliament. The fact that this year’s budget introduces few changes compared to that of last year might jeopardize the government’s position ahead of the elections. Rob Wood, Chief UK Economist at Berenberg, comments:

Mr. Osborne’s decision to present a fiscally neutral budget this close to an election could be described as risky. From a macroeconomic perspective, none of Mr. Osborne’s policy measures amounted to much. […] Perhaps, the most incredible was yet more help for home buyers, by providing a tax rebate on saving earmarked for a house deposit.

The OBR revised its growth forecast for 2015 upward and now expects the economy to expand 2.5% in 2015, which is an improvement over the 2.4% growth foreseen in its Autumn Statement. 2016’s growth forecast was also revised up to 2.3%. In addition, it forecasts a structural budget deficit of 2.1% of GDP (Autumn Statement: -2.2% of GDP) this year and 0.4% of GDP (Autumn Statement: -0.5% of GDP) next year. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the budget deficit to shrink this year to 4.4% of GDP. For next year, the panel projects a shortfall of 2.9% of GDP.

REAL SECTOR | Industry improves in JanuaryIn January, industrial production fell 0.1% over the previous month, which was slightly up from the 0.2% drop observed in December. January’s figure contrasted the 0.2% expansion the market had expected.

Manufacturing swung from a 0.1% expansion in December to a 0.5% contraction in January. Mining and quarrying expanded 2.0% in January, which contrasted the 1.4% decrease tallied in December. In addition, the oil and gas extraction sector expanded 2.4% (December: -3.1% month-on-month). Conversely, electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning swung from a 1.6% increase in December to a 0.4% decrease in January.

In annual terms, industrial production rose 1.3% in January, which was an improvement over the 0.8% rise seen in the previous month. Annual average growth was stable in January at December’s 1.6%, thus remaining at the lowest level in seven months.


Note: Month-on-month seasonally adjusted and year-on-year variation in %.Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS) and FocusEconomics calculations.

-5.0

-2.5

0.0

2.5

5.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0




%%

Sample Report





April 2015

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project that industrial production will increase 1.2% in 2015, which is unchanged over the previous month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel expects that industrial production will increase 1.6%.

In its latest inflation report from February, the Bank of England projects that the economy will grow 2.9% in both 2015 and 2016. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to grow 2.6% in 2015, which is unchanged from the previous month’s estimate. The panel sees GDP expanding 2.4% in 2016.

REAL SECTOR | Unemployment in January stable at its lowest level in over six yearsIn February, jobless claims fell 31,000 over the previous month, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The print represented a smaller drop than the revised 39,400 decrease recorded in December (previously reported: -38,600) and exceeded the 30,000 decrease in jobless claims the markets had expected.

The unemployment rate—derived from a different survey—was stable at December’s 5.7% in January (the latest period for which data are available), thus remaining at the lowest level since August 2008. The figure overshot market expectations, which had the unemployment rate inching down to 5.6%.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect unemployment to average 5.4% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel expects the unemployment rate to drop to 5.1%.

REAL SECTOR | House prices pick up in MarchIn March, home prices in the U.K. rose 0.1% over the previous month, which contrasted the 0.1% decrease observed in February, according to the Nationwide Building Society (NBS). On an annual basis, home prices rose 5.1% (February: +5.7% year-on-year). The figure marked the slowest increase since September 2013. The average house price was GBP 189,454 (February 2015: GBP 187,964).

NBS added that, “economic conditions have remained supportive, with labour market conditions continuing to improve and mortgage interest rates close to all-time lows. Nevertheless, the pace of housing market activity has remained subdued, with the number of mortgages approved for house purchase in January around 20% below the level prevailing one year ago.”

According to the Q4 2014 quarterly release, NBS data showed that, geographically speaking, the strongest increases in prices are still in the city of London, where the average house price rose 21.0% year-on-year. This is markedly higher than the 10.5% rise that has been recorded in the U.K. as a whole. The regions other than London that saw higher-than-average price increases were: Outer Metropolitan, Outer South East, East Anglia and Northern Ireland.

MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation eases to a new record low in FebruaryIn February, consumer prices rose 0.3% over the previous month, which contrasted the 0.9% drop seen in the previous month and marked the fastest increase in six months. February’s figure was mainly driven by rising prices for alcohol and tobacco as well as for clothing and footwear.

Nationwide House Prices

Note: Average price of a typical property in the U.K. and seasonally adjusted month-on-month variation in %.Source: Nationwide Building Society (NBS) and FocusEconomics calculations.

160

170

180

190

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15

Thou

sand

s


Average price ('000 GBP, right scale)

%

Unemployment rate

Note: Three-month average of unemployment rate in %.Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS).

5

6

7

8

9

Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15

%


Note: Annual and monthly variation of consumer price index in %.Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS) and FocusEconomics calculations.

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0




%%

Sample Report





April 2015

Annual inflation recorded a flat figure in February, which was down from the 0.3% recorded in January and marked the lowest print on record. February’s reading came in slightly below market expectations of inflation falling to 0.1%. Annual average inflation inched down from January’s 1.3% to 1.2% in February, and now stands at its lowest level since October 2002.

In its latest inflation report from February, the Bank of England projected that inflation will average 0.2% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation to average 0.5% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel forecasts that inflation will average 1.7%.

MONETARY SECTOR | BoE keeps the Bank Rate on hold at 0.50%At its 4–5 March meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England (BoE) decided to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 0.50% and to leave the stock of asset purchasing at GBP 375 billion, as the markets had expected. The MPC made both decisions unanimously. The BoE continues to see the rate as appropriate considering the inflation outlook as well as the current state of the economy.

The Committee commented that the economic news since the last monetary policy meeting has been “fairly modest”. The economic outlook described in February’s Inflation Report remains valid as domestic activity has expanded at a sustainable pace. In addition, the labor market has continued to tighten, causing nominal wage growth to rise. The Bank added that the unemployment rate fell from 6.0% in the third quarter to 5.7% in the fourth quarter and that the confidence in the job market increased as the rate at which the employees move from one job to another picked up. However, there is still uncertainty regarding the remaining slack in the economy. The issue remains a matter of debate among the Committee members.

Regarding price developments, BoE said that CPI inflation fell as expected in February, mainly reflecting lower food and energy prices. As a result, inflation is well below the Bank’s target of 2.0%, which means that it is more likely than not that inflation will drop below zero at some point in the coming months. Looking forward, the Committee added that, “the combination of the increase in the price of oil and appreciation of sterling that had occurred over the month was expected to leave the path of inflation broadly unchanged in the near term, but a little lower further ahead.”

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the Bank Rate to end the year at 0.66%. For 2016, the panel expects the Bank Rate to end the year at 1.39%.

Bank Rate | in %

Note: Asset Purchase Facility (APF) in GBP billion and Bank rate in %.Source: Bank of England (BoE).

0

150

300

450

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5


Asset Purchase Facility (GBP bn, right scale)

Bank Rate (%, left scale)

%

Sample Report





April 2015


Annual Data 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Real Sector Population (million) 62.3 63.3 63.7 64.1 64.5 64.9 65.4 65.8 66.3 66.7GDP per capita (GBP) 25,029 25,562 25,985 26,731 27,714 28,396 29,359 30,408 31,521 32,710GDP (GBP bn) 1,558 1,618 1,655 1,713 1,788 1,844 1,920 2,002 2,089 2,182Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) 5.1 3.8 2.3 3.5 4.4 3.1 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.4Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 1.9 1.6 0.7 1.7 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3Domestic Demand (annual variation in %) 2.6 0.2 1.4 1.9 2.9 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.1Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 0.4 0.1 1.1 1.7 2.0 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.1Government Consumption (annual var. in %) 0.0 0.0 2.3 -0.3 1.5 - - - - -Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) 5.9 2.3 0.7 3.4 6.8 4.5 5.0 4.5 3.9 3.4Exports (G&S, annual variation in %) 6.2 5.6 0.7 1.5 0.4 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.4Imports (G&S, annual variation in %) 8.7 1.0 3.1 1.4 1.8 3.3 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 3.1 -0.8 -2.7 -0.6 1.6 1.2 1.6 1.3 1.1 0.9N'wide House Price Index (var. in %) 0.1 0.9 -1.0 8.3 7.2 - - - - -Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.6 6.2 5.4 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -9.6 -7.6 -8.3 -5.8 -5.3 -4.4 -2.9 -2.0 -1.2 -0.5Public Debt (% of GDP) 76.4 81.9 85.8 87.2 88.5 90.0 90.1 88.3 86.0 83.7Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M2 in %) 4.0 3.0 5.5 5.4 6.2 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) 3.7 4.2 2.7 2.0 0.5 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 3.3 4.5 2.8 2.6 1.5 0.5 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.1Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %, aop) 2.7 4.7 2.1 1.3 0.0 - - - - -Bank Rate (%, eop) 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.66 1.39 1.87 2.31 2.753-Month LIBOR (%, eop) 0.78 1.10 0.50 0.53 0.53 0.81 1.62 2.00 2.40 2.8010-Year Gilt Yield (%, eop) 3.62 2.10 1.89 3.16 1.82 2.23 2.82 3.00 3.22 3.43Stock Market (FTSE 100, ann. var. in %) 9.0 -5.6 5.8 14.4 -2.7 - - - - -Exchange Rate (USD per GBP, eop) 1.56 1.55 1.63 1.66 1.56 1.48 1.50 1.48 1.48 1.49Exchange Rate (USD per GBP, aop) 1.55 1.60 1.59 1.56 1.65 1.50 1.49 1.49 1.48 1.48Exchange Rate (EUR per GBP, eop) 1.17 1.20 1.23 1.20 1.29 1.42 1.40 1.31 1.27 1.23Exchange Rate (EUR per GBP, aop) 1.17 1.15 1.23 1.18 1.24 1.39 1.41 1.36 1.29 1.25External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -2.6 -1.7 -3.7 -4.5 -5.1 -4.1 -3.6 -3.1 -2.7 -2.2Current Account Balance (GBP bn) -40.6 -27.0 -61.9 -76.7 -90.9 -76.1 -68.6 -62.6 -55.9 -48.6Trade Balance (GBP bn) -97.4 -96.5 -109.0 -112.6 -119.6 - - - - - Quarterly Data Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 2.5 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3Economic Growth (GDP, s.a. qoq var. in %) 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6Private Consumption (s.a. qoq var. in %) 0.7 0.3 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.8Fixed Investment (s.a. qoq variation in %) 0.5 -0.5 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5Exports (G&S, s.a. qoq variation in %) -0.8 3.5 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.7Imports (G&S, s.a. qoq variation in %) 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 1.2 1.1 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.2 1.3 1.7 1.7Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 6.0 5.7 5.8 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.3Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.7Bank Rate (%, eop) 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.51 0.55 0.66 0.78 0.98 1.16 1.393-Month LIBOR (%, eop) 0.56 0.53 0.57 0.59 0.67 0.81 1.00 1.22 1.42 1.6210-Year Gilt Yield (%, eop) 2.47 1.82 1.58 1.77 1.94 2.23 2.33 2.48 2.66 2.82Exchange Rate (USD per GBP, eop) 1.62 1.56 1.49 1.49 1.49 1.48 1.48 1.49 1.49 1.50Exchange Rate (EUR per GBP, eop) 1.28 1.29 1.37 1.41 1.44 1.42 1.41 1.41 1.40 1.40Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -6.0 -4.3 -4.0 -3.8 -3.8 -3.7 -3.3 -3.3 -3.2 -3.2Current Account Balance (GBP bn) -27.0 -19.5 -18.7 -18.4 -18.6 -19.0 -17.6 -18.1 -18.6 -19.1 Monthly Data Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 0.9 1.4 1.5 0.8 1.0 1.3 0.8 1.3 - -Industrial Production (s.a. mom var. in %) 0.0 0.2 -0.3 0.6 -0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 - -Retail Sales (s.a. annual var. in %) 3.3 2.5 3.7 2.2 4.8 6.5 3.9 5.9 5.6 -Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (50-threshold) 56.7 54.8 52.8 51.4 53.3 53.4 52.8 53.1 54.1 -Unemployment (% of active population) 6.3 6.2 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.7 - -GfK Consumer Confidence Index 1 -2 1 -1 -2 -2 -4 1 1 -N'wide House Price Index (s.a.mom var. in %) 1.0 0.2 0.8 -0.2 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 -0.1 0.1Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.2 -0.3 0.4 0.0 0.1 -0.3 0.0 -0.9 0.3 -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.0 -Exchange Rate (USD per GBP, eop) 1.71 1.69 1.66 1.62 1.60 1.56 1.56 1.51 1.54 -Exchange Rate (EUR per GBP, eop) 1.25 1.26 1.26 1.28 1.28 1.26 1.29 1.33 1.38 -

Sample Report





April 2015


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.1 GDP, annual variation in %.2 Quarterly GDP (seasonally adjusted), quarter-on-quarter variation in %.3 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

< 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.4 > 3.4


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016BBVA Research 2.8 2.5Berenberg 3.0 3.0BMO Capital Markets 2.5 2.3BNP Paribas 2.8 2.2Brit. Chamb. of Comm. 2.7 2.6Camecon 2.4 2.0Cebr 2.6 1.7Citigroup Global Mkts 2.8 3.1Commerzbank 2.5 2.4Credit Agricole 2.5 2.3Credit Suisse 2.7 2.5DekaBank 2.4 2.5Deutsche Bank 2.4 2.3DIW Berlin 2.7 2.4DZ Bank 2.5 2.2EEF 2.8 2.7EIU 2.7 2.4Frontier Strategy Group 2.5 2.3Goldman Sachs 3.0 3.0ING 2.7 2.6Intesa Sanpaolo 2.7 2.9JPMorgan 2.7 2.6Julius Baer 2.5 2.4KBC 2.7 2.4Lloyds TSB 2.7 2.5NIESR 2.9 2.3Nomura 2.6 2.8Nordea 2.5 2.2Oxford Economics 2.8 2.7Raiffeisen Research 2.8 2.4RBS 2.3 1.9Schroders 2.6 2.0Scotiabank 2.8 2.3Standard Chartered 2.8 2.2UBS 2.4 2.9Unicredit 2.4 1.9SummaryMinimum 2.3 1.7Maximum 3.0 3.1Median 2.7 2.4Consensus 2.6 2.4History30 days ago 2.6 2.460 days ago 2.7 2.490 days ago 2.6 2.3Additional ForecastsBank of England (Feb. 2015, mean) 2.9 2.9OBR (Mar. 2015) 2.5 2.3IMF (Jan. 2015) 2.7 2.4

1 | Real GDP | 2000-2019 | var. in %


2 | Real GDP | Q1 12-Q4 16 | var. in %


-6

-3

0

3

6

2000 2005 2010 2015

United KingdomG7World

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

United Kingdom

G7

0

1

2

3

4



1

2

3

4




Sample Report





April 2015



4

5

6

7

8


2015 2016


-20

-10

0

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

United Kingdom

G7


1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0


2015 2016


-6

-3

0

3

6

2000 2005 2010 2015

United Kingdom

G7


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016BBVA Research 2.6 2.2 5.2 5.8Berenberg 2.9 3.0 4.9 8.0BMO Capital Markets - - - -BNP Paribas 3.1 2.6 5.6 1.8Brit. Chamb. of Comm. 2.6 2.5 3.7 6.0Camecon 2.6 2.1 4.0 3.7Cebr 3.4 1.7 4.5 7.5Citigroup Global Mkts 3.2 3.7 4.6 8.0Commerzbank - - - -Credit Agricole 3.0 3.2 4.1 3.0Credit Suisse 2.9 2.2 5.3 7.2DekaBank 2.7 3.1 1.4 1.8Deutsche Bank 2.2 2.3 3.8 5.5DIW Berlin - - - -DZ Bank 2.0 3.0 6.8 1.6EEF - - - -EIU 2.8 2.4 3.4 3.2Frontier Strategy Group 2.3 2.0 - -Goldman Sachs - - - -ING - - - -Intesa Sanpaolo 2.5 2.6 6.4 6.3JPMorgan - - - -Julius Baer - - - -KBC - - - -Lloyds TSB 2.8 2.7 3.5 4.6NIESR 3.4 2.5 6.8 6.3Nomura 3.2 4.6 4.5 6.0Nordea 2.5 2.0 4.5 2.9Oxford Economics 3.1 2.9 4.8 6.1Raiffeisen Research - - - -RBS 2.4 1.8 3.5 3.9Schroders 2.9 2.2 4.1 4.3Scotiabank - - - -Standard Chartered - - - -UBS 2.2 2.7 2.9 6.4Unicredit - - - -SummaryMinimum 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.6Maximum 3.4 4.6 6.8 8.0Median 2.8 2.5 4.5 5.7Consensus 2.8 2.6 4.5 5.0History30 days ago 2.9 2.6 5.4 5.260 days ago 2.8 2.5 5.7 4.990 days ago 2.8 2.5 5.8 4.9

Consumption Investment variation in % variation in %

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.6 Private consumption, annual variation in %. 7 Private consumption, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.9 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Sample Report





April 2015


2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5


2015 2016


-20

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

United Kingdom

G7


-20

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

United Kingdom

G7


2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0


2015 2016


Exports and Imports

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016BBVA Research 3.5 5.2 2.7 4.4Berenberg - - - -BMO Capital Markets - - - -BNP Paribas - - - -Brit. Chamb. of Comm. 3.7 2.6 2.3 1.6Camecon 3.1 3.4 2.4 2.6Cebr 2.9 1.9 2.7 2.3Citigroup Global Mkts 5.3 4.8 4.0 5.3Commerzbank - - - -Credit Agricole - - - -Credit Suisse - - - -DekaBank 4.2 4.4 3.9 4.6Deutsche Bank 3.3 1.9 2.8 2.3DIW Berlin - - - -DZ Bank 3.0 2.0 3.3 2.7EEF 3.6 5.3 3.1 5.1EIU 3.3 3.6 1.8 1.6Frontier Strategy Group 3.3 4.0 2.5 3.0Goldman Sachs - - - -ING - - - -Intesa Sanpaolo 4.0 6.1 3.4 5.2JPMorgan - - - -Julius Baer - - - -KBC - - - -Lloyds TSB 3.8 4.2 3.5 4.5NIESR 6.1 5.5 6.5 6.2Nomura 4.8 4.1 5.7 7.3Nordea 4.7 5.5 3.9 4.1Oxford Economics 3.5 5.3 2.7 5.2Raiffeisen Research - - - -RBS 3.5 5.0 3.2 4.2Schroders - - - -Scotiabank - - - -Standard Chartered - - - -UBS 3.4 2.9 2.9 2.8Unicredit - - - -SummaryMinimum 2.9 1.9 1.8 1.6Maximum 6.1 6.1 6.5 7.3Median 3.5 4.2 3.1 4.2Consensus 3.8 4.1 3.3 3.9History30 days ago 3.0 4.2 3.2 3.860 days ago 2.7 4.2 2.9 3.790 days ago 2.8 4.5 3.2 3.7


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 10 Real exports of goods and services, annual variation in %. 11 Exports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.12 Real imports of goods and services, annual variation in %. 13 Imports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Sample Report





April 2015


5

6

7

8


2015 2016


4

5

6

7

8

9

2000 2005 2010 2015

United KingdomG7


-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

United Kingdom

G7


0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0


2015 2016



Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016BBVA Research - - - -Berenberg 1.6 2.4 5.3 4.7BMO Capital Markets - - 5.5 5.5BNP Paribas - - 5.3 5.0Brit. Chamb. of Comm. 1.2 1.7 - -Camecon - - - -Cebr 0.1 -0.2 5.2 5.0Citigroup Global Mkts 1.4 2.0 5.0 4.1Commerzbank - - - -Credit Agricole - - - -Credit Suisse 1.0 2.1 5.2 4.8DekaBank - - 5.5 5.2Deutsche Bank 1.4 1.7 5.5 5.3DIW Berlin - - 5.6 5.2DZ Bank - - 5.7 5.6EEF - - 5.4 5.2EIU 1.3 1.8 5.5 5.5Frontier Strategy Group 1.5 1.5 5.7 5.6Goldman Sachs - - - -ING - - - -Intesa Sanpaolo 1.3 1.9 - -JPMorgan - - - -Julius Baer - - - -KBC - - - -Lloyds TSB 0.7 0.8 - -NIESR - - 5.4 5.3Nomura - - 5.0 4.1Nordea - - - -Oxford Economics 0.9 1.2 - -Raiffeisen Research - - 5.4 5.0RBS 1.4 1.3 5.6 5.2Schroders 1.5 1.2 - -Scotiabank - - - -Standard Chartered - - - -UBS 1.5 2.5 5.5 5.3Unicredit - - - -SummaryMinimum 0.1 -0.2 5.0 4.1Maximum 1.6 2.5 5.7 5.6Median 1.4 1.7 5.4 5.2Consensus 1.2 1.6 5.4 5.1History30 days ago 1.2 1.5 5.5 5.160 days ago 1.5 1.6 5.6 5.390 days ago 1.6 1.6 5.7 5.4

Industry Unemployment variation in % % of active pop.

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.14 Industrial production, annual variation in %. 15 Industrial production, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months. 16 Unemployment, % of active population. 17 Unemployment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Sample Report





April 2015


88

92

96

100


2015 2016


20

40

60

80

100

120

2000 2005 2010 2015

United Kingdom

G7


-15

-10

-5

0

5

2000 2005 2010 2015

United KingdomG7


-5

-4

-3

-2


2015 2016



Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016BBVA Research -4.4 -3.4 - -Berenberg -4.1 -3.1 90.2 90.2BMO Capital Markets - - - -BNP Paribas -4.7 -3.8 90.0 90.0Brit. Chamb. of Comm. -4.0 -2.8 - -Camecon -4.1 -2.9 - -Cebr -4.7 -2.5 - -Citigroup Global Mkts -4.8 -2.5 - -Commerzbank - - - -Credit Agricole -4.4 -3.4 89.6 90.2Credit Suisse -5.0 -4.0 90.1 91.0DekaBank -4.6 -3.6 - -Deutsche Bank -4.0 -2.0 90.0 90.0DIW Berlin - - - -DZ Bank -4.3 -3.4 90.5 90.2EEF - - - -EIU -4.0 -3.1 91.1 90.9Frontier Strategy Group - - - -Goldman Sachs - - - -ING -4.2 -2.8 - -Intesa Sanpaolo - - - -JPMorgan - - - -Julius Baer - - - -KBC - - - -Lloyds TSB -4.2 -3.3 88.2 88.6NIESR -5.2 -3.2 90.1 89.4Nomura - - - -Nordea -4.4 -3.5 - -Oxford Economics -3.9 -3.1 90.4 90.2Raiffeisen Research -5.4 -4.9 89.6 90.0RBS -4.4 -2.8 - -Schroders - - - -Scotiabank - - - -Standard Chartered - - - -UBS -4.1 -2.3 - -Unicredit -4.2 2.2 89.9 90.0SummaryMinimum -5.4 -4.9 88.2 88.6Maximum -3.9 2.2 91.1 91.0Median -4.4 -3.1 90.1 90.1Consensus -4.4 -2.9 90.0 90.1History30 days ago -4.4 -3.1 90.3 90.460 days ago -4.3 -3.0 89.9 90.090 days ago -4.3 -3.0 90.3 90.0


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.18 General government balance as % of GDP. 19 General government balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months. 20 Public debt as % of GDP.21 Public debt as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Sample Report





April 2015


22 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | in %


23 | Inflation | Q1 12-Q4 16 | in %


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the Bank of England (BoE). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.22 Inflation, annual average variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %.23 Inflation, annual variation of quarterly average consumer price index (CPI) in %. 24 Inflation, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.25 Inflation, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.26 Inflation, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016BBVA Research 0.4 1.5Berenberg 0.3 1.5BMO Capital Markets 0.5 1.4BNP Paribas 1.0 2.0Brit. Chamb. of Comm. 0.3 1.7Camecon 0.8 1.7Cebr 0.5 2.0Citigroup Global Mkts 0.3 1.5Commerzbank 0.3 1.6Credit Agricole - -Credit Suisse 0.1 1.5DekaBank 0.8 1.6Deutsche Bank 0.4 1.9DIW Berlin 0.3 0.9DZ Bank 0.7 2.0EEF - -EIU 0.2 1.4Frontier Strategy Group 0.9 1.3Goldman Sachs 0.5 1.7ING 0.4 2.2Intesa Sanpaolo 1.0 1.7JPMorgan - -Julius Baer 0.4 1.3KBC 1.0 1.6Lloyds TSB 0.5 1.9NIESR 0.6 1.6Nomura 0.3 1.9Nordea 0.5 1.5Oxford Economics 0.2 1.8Raiffeisen Research 0.7 1.8RBS 0.2 1.2Schroders 0.6 2.2Scotiabank - -Standard Chartered 0.7 1.9UBS 0.1 1.7Unicredit 0.4 2.2SummaryMinimum 0.1 0.9Maximum 1.0 2.2Median 0.4 1.7Consensus 0.5 1.7History30 days ago 0.6 1.760 days ago 0.8 1.890 days ago 1.3 1.9Additional ForecastsBank of England (Feb. 2015, mean) 0.2 1.5OBR (Mar. 2015) 0.2 1.2IMF (Oct. 2014) 1.8 2.0

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

< -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 > 2.5



-1

0

1

2

3

4



-2

0

2

4

6

2000 2005 2010 2015

United Kingdom

G7

0

1

2

3

4

5



0

1

2

3

4

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

United Kingdom

G7

Sample Report





April 2015


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016BBVA Research - - - - - -Berenberg 0.50 1.50 - - - -BMO Capital Markets 0.50 1.50 0.70 1.75 1.90 2.50BNP Paribas - - - - 2.50 -Brit. Chamb. of Comm. 0.50 1.00 - - - -Camecon 0.60 1.20 - - - -Cebr 0.50 1.25 - - 2.50 2.70Citigroup Global Mkts 0.50 - - - 1.30 -Commerzbank 0.50 - 0.75 - 2.10 -Credit Agricole 0.75 1.25 1.10 1.70 2.15 2.70Credit Suisse 1.00 2.00 - - 2.75 -DekaBank 1.00 1.75 1.27 2.10 2.30 2.60Deutsche Bank 0.50 - 0.60 - 2.00 -DIW Berlin - - - - - -DZ Bank - - - - - -EEF - - - - - -EIU - - 0.90 1.50 2.40 3.00Frontier Strategy Group - - - - - -Goldman Sachs - - 0.80 - 2.00 -ING 0.75 1.75 1.00 1.90 2.30 3.10Intesa Sanpaolo - - - - - -JPMorgan 0.50 - - - 2.20 -Julius Baer 0.75 1.25 - - 2.15 3.30KBC 0.75 - - - 2.55 -Lloyds TSB 0.75 1.25 0.80 1.50 2.20 2.90NIESR 0.50 1.00 0.60 1.19 2.07 2.61Nomura 0.50 1.50 0.60 1.60 2.90 3.30Nordea 0.75 1.75 0.85 1.90 2.20 3.00Oxford Economics - - 0.53 1.05 2.03 2.49Raiffeisen Research 0.50 - 0.60 - 2.20 -RBS 0.50 1.25 - - - -Schroders 0.75 1.25 - - - -Scotiabank 0.75 1.25 - - - -Standard Chartered 0.75 - 1.00 - 2.30 -UBS 0.75 1.25 - - 2.35 2.50Unicredit 1.00 - - - 2.20 -SummaryMinimum 0.50 1.00 0.53 1.05 1.30 2.49Maximum 1.00 2.00 1.27 2.10 2.90 3.30Median 0.68 1.25 0.80 1.65 2.20 2.70Consensus 0.66 1.39 0.81 1.62 2.23 2.82History30 days ago 0.72 1.42 0.83 1.61 2.28 2.8860 days ago 0.78 1.54 0.87 1.60 2.39 2.9290 days ago 0.97 1.73 1.15 1.86 2.80 3.29

Bank of England 3-Month GBP 10-Year GiltBank Rate in % LIBOR in % Yield in %

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the Bank of England (BoE), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve Board (Fed). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.27 Bank Rate in % (eop).28 Bank Rate in %, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.29 10-year benchmark bond yield (eop).30 10-year benchmark bond yield, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.


2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0


2015 2016


0

2

4

6

2000 2005 2010 2015

United KingdomUnited StatesGermany


0

2

4

6

8

2000 2005 2010 2015

United KingdomUnited StatesEuro area


0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0


2015 2016


Sample Report





April 2015

0%

20%

40%

60%

< 1.20 1.30 1.40 1.50 1.60 1.70 1.80 1.90 > 1.90


31 | Exchange Rate | USD per GBP

33 | USD per GBP 2015 | evol. of fcst

32 | Exchange Rate | USD per GBP

34 | USD per GBP 2016 | evol. of fcst

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the Thomson Reuters. Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.31 Exchange rate, USD per GBP (eop).32 Quarterly exchange rate, USD per GBP (eop).33 Exchange rate, evolution of 2015 forecast during the last 18 months.34 Exchange rate, evolution of 2016 forecast during the last 18 months.35 Exchange rate, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016BBVA Research - -Berenberg - -BMO Capital Markets 1.45 1.50BNP Paribas - -Brit. Chamb. of Comm. - -Camecon - -Cebr 1.47 1.43Citigroup Global Mkts 1.37 -Commerzbank 1.46 -Credit Agricole 1.57 1.58Credit Suisse 1.46 -DekaBank 1.55 1.47Deutsche Bank 1.36 -DIW Berlin - -DZ Bank - -EEF 1.48 1.47EIU 1.49 1.44Frontier Strategy Group - -Goldman Sachs - -ING 1.40 1.43Intesa Sanpaolo - -JPMorgan 1.48 -Julius Baer 1.55 1.54KBC 1.46 -Lloyds TSB 1.54 1.57NIESR 1.50 1.51Nomura 1.46 1.50Nordea 1.52 1.52Oxford Economics 1.46 1.47Raiffeisen Research 1.36 -RBS - -Schroders - -Scotiabank 1.50 1.51Standard Chartered 1.50 -UBS 1.55 1.52Unicredit 1.57 -SummaryMinimum 1.36 1.43Maximum 1.57 1.58Median 1.48 1.50Consensus 1.48 1.50History30 days ago 1.50 1.5160 days ago 1.52 1.5290 days ago 1.54 1.54

35 | USD per GBP 2015 | Panelist Distribution

Exchange Rate | USD per GBP

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8



1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2000 2005 2010 2015

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8



1.45

1.55

1.65

1.75

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

Sample Report





April 2015

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

< -6.00 -5.5 -5.0 -4.5 -4.0 -3.5 -3.0 -2.5 > -2.50






Individual Forecasts 2015 2016BBVA Research -4.1 -3.8Berenberg -4.2 -3.0BMO Capital Markets - -BNP Paribas -4.6 -3.6Brit. Chamb. of Comm. -4.9 -4.3Camecon -2.9 -1.8Cebr -2.9 -3.0Citigroup Global Mkts -5.1 -5.0Commerzbank - -Credit Agricole -4.1 -3.7Credit Suisse -5.0 -5.0DekaBank -3.8 -3.3Deutsche Bank -4.1 -2.9DIW Berlin - -DZ Bank -4.9 -4.2EEF -4.6 -3.9EIU -4.6 -4.1Frontier Strategy Group - -Goldman Sachs -3.9 -3.4ING - -Intesa Sanpaolo -3.4 -2.7JPMorgan - -Julius Baer - -KBC - -Lloyds TSB -3.5 -2.7NIESR -3.9 -3.8Nomura -3.8 -3.8Nordea -4.5 -4.1Oxford Economics -4.5 -3.9Raiffeisen Research - -RBS -3.7 -3.0Schroders -5.3 -5.0Scotiabank -3.5 -3.0Standard Chartered -4.7 -4.0UBS -3.4 -2.7Unicredit -3.5 -2.7SummaryMinimum -5.3 -5.0Maximum -2.9 -1.8Median -4.1 -3.7Consensus -4.1 -3.6History30 days ago -4.1 -3.660 days ago -4.0 -3.690 days ago -4.0 -3.6



-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1



-6

-4

-2

0

2000 2005 2010 2015

United Kingdom

G7

-8

-6

-4

-2

0



-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.36 Current account balance as % of GDP.37 4-quarter moving average of current account balance as % of GDP.38 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.39 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.40 Current account balance as % of GDP, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration


Sample Report





April 2015

Fact Sheet

United Kingdom in the Region


United Kingdom

8.3%

United States49.0%Japan

13.0%

Germany10.8%

France8.0%

Italy6.0%

Canada5.0%

United Kingdom

8.6%

United States42.4%

Japan16.9%

Germany10.8%

France8.5%

Italy8.0%

Canada4.7%

U.S.A.6.7%

Other EU-27

23.8%

Germany12.6%

Netherlands7.5%

France5.4%

Other Asia ex-Japan

6.5%

China8.0%

Other29.6%

U.S.A.10.5%

Other EU-27

19.7%

Germany11.3%

Netherlands8.8%France

7.4%

Asia ex-Japan11.4%

Other30.8%

Other12.4%


Mineral Fuels11.3%

Food10.4%

Other13.6%


Mineral Fuels15.3%

Food6.7%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1202005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• Persistent current account deficit• Large private and public debt

• Major international financial hub

• Improving competitiveness due to weaker exchange rate

• Commitment to medium-term fiscal stability

Energy (2012)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 4,900Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 8,628Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 336Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 319Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 86Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 1,528CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 498.9

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: Aa1 StableS&P: AAA StableFitch Ratings: AA+ Stable

Telecommunication (2013) Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 52.9Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 123.8Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 89.8Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 35.7

Transportation (2013) Airports: 460Railways (km): 16,454Roadways (km): 394,428Waterways (km): 3,200Chief Ports: Felixstowe, London, Southampton

Official name: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland

Capital: London (15.0m)Other cities: Manchester (2.6m)

West Midlands (2.3m)Area (km2): 243,610Population (million, 2014 est.): 64.5Population density (per km2, 2014): 265Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 0.5Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 80.4Illiteracy rate (%, 2003): < 1.0Language: English, Welsh, Gaelic,

Lowland Scots, Cornish and Irish

Measures: Metric systemTime: GMT

Prime Minister: David CameronLast elections: 6 May 2010Next elections: 7 May 2015Central Bank Governor: Mark Carney

Sample Report



FOCUSECONOMICS Euro area


April 2015

Euro area

REAL SECTOR | More complete data show mild GDP acceleration in Q4The Eurozone economy grew a seasonally-adjusted 0.3% in Q4, according to preliminary data released by Eurostat on 6 March. The reading came in slightly above the 0.2% rise observed in Q3 and was in line with market expectations. On an annual basis, GDP growth rose from 0.8% in Q3 to 0.9% in Q4.

The mild acceleration in Q4 reflected an improvement in the external sector and a stronger growth in fixed investment. Exports of goods and service services increased 0.8% in Q4 over the previous quarter, which followed the 1.5% expansion observed in Q3. Imports grew 0.4% in Q4, which came in below the 1.7% expansion witnessed in Q3. As exports expanded faster than imports, the external sector’s net contribution to overall economic growth was 0.2 percentage points in Q4, which improved over a flat reading in Q3.

On the domestic front, private consumption grew 0.4% in Q4 (Q3: +0.5% quarter-on-quarter) and government spending expanded 0.2%, mirroring an increase of the same magnitude in Q3. Meanwhile, fixed investment swung from a flat reading in Q3 to a 0.4% expansion in Q4.

In 2014, the Eurozone economy expanded 0.9%, recovering from the 0.4% contraction registered in 2013. The European Commission expects the Eurozone economy to increase 1.3% in 2015. In 2016, the Commission sees

The Eurozone economy improved in the fourth quarter of 2014. Although growth picked up just slightly over the third quarter, recent data provide further evidence that the bloc’s economy is gaining momentum at the outset of 2015. The composite PMI—a closely-watched leading indicator—rose to a nearly-four-year high in March and economic sentiment improved in the same month. Businesses and consumers are more upbeat as the euro’s slide supports export-oriented manufacturers and borrowers are benefitting from the European Central Bank’s ultra-loose monetary policy.

Growth prospects for the Eurozone economy in 2015 improved this month, reflecting tailwinds from low oil prices, a weak euro, easing fiscal austerity and stronger signals from the latest leading indicators. The FocusEconomics panel raised the 2015 growth forecast from the 1.2% expected last month to 1.3%. For 2016, forecasters see the bloc’s economy picking up pace and expanding 1.7%.

Consumer prices fell 0.3% year-on-year in February (January: -0.6% year-on-year), which marked the third straight month of declining prices. On 9 March, the European Central Bank (ECB) began its bond-buying program, which is designed to pump over EUR 1 trillion into the financial system to kick-start lending and push inflation. FocusEconomics panelists see zero inflation in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel foresees inflation rising to 1.2%.

Outlook improves


Ricardo AcevesSenior Economist

Euro area

2011-13 2014-16 2017-19Population (million): 330.8 333.2 335.2GDP (EUR bn): 9,825 10,262 11,168GDP per capita (EUR): 29,703 30,797 33,313GDP growth (%): 0.2 1.3 1.6Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -3.5 -2.3 -1.2Public Debt (% of GDP): 88.6 94.5 92.6Inflation (%): 2.2 0.5 1.6Current Account (% of GDP): 1.3 2.5 2.1


Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally-adjusted GDP and year-on-year variarion in %.Source: Eurostat and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015

Quarter-on-quarter s.a. (left scale)


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April 2015

economic growth picking up to 1.9%. Meanwhile, in its March review of the economy, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised its 2015 GDP growth forecasts for the bloc’s economy and now expects it to expand 1.5% (previous estimate: +1.0%). For 2016, the ECB also raised its projection and now sees economic growth rising to 1.9%, which is up its previous 1.5% estimate.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to expand 1.3% in 2015, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, panelists expect the economy to expand 1.7%.

REAL SECTOR | Eurozone PMI climbs to highest level in nearly four yearsThe flash estimate of the Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index came in at 54.1 in March. The reading was above the revised 53.3 recorded in February (previously reported: 53.5) and smashed the 53.6 that the markets had expected. March’s result represented the fourth consecutive increase in the gauge, which also climbed to its highest level in nearly four years, rising further above the 50-threshold that separates expansion from contraction in business activity in the common currency area.

The strong reading was driven by notable rises in the manufacturing and services sectors, particularly the services sector, which also picked up to the highest level in almost four years. According to Markit, the acceleration in business activity was propelled by faster growth in new orders and a stronger increase in both in business activity and manufacturing output. Meanwhile, employment rose over the previous month and was more noticeable in the manufacturing sector.

Markit concluded that the strong improvement observed in the March PMI provides, “welcome news to a region awaiting signs that the ECB’s quantitative easing is stimulating the real economy.” Markit added the economy “looks to have expanded by 0.3% in the first quarter, buoyed by a 0.4% expansion in Germany and signs of a long-awaited recovery in France.”

At a country level, Germany’s composite PMI rose in March to the highest point in eight months. Meanwhile, France’s composite PMI continued to signal an expansion in business activity for the second month in a row, although the pace of growth moderated over the previous month. Excluding Germany and France, the composite PMI for all the other countries in the region rose to the highest level since July 2014.

REAL SECTOR | Industrial production in common currency area contracts mildly In January, industrial production fell a seasonally-adjusted 0.1% over the previous month. The reading contrasted both the revised 0.3% rise observed in December (previously reported: 0.0% month-on-month) and market expectations that had industrial output rising 0.2%.

The mild contraction observed in January reflected a contraction in the three Baltic economies (Estonia: -1.5% mom, Latvia: -3.1% mom, Lithuania: -2.3% mom). Other regional worst performers were Finland (-2.5% mom) and Luxembourg (-1.8% mom). On the other side of the spectrum, Malta (+6.1% mom) and the Netherlands (+1.4% mom) registered better results. Regarding the four major economies in the Eurozone, in France industrial production increased 0.4% in January, while in Germany industrial output growth was flat.


Note: Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) Composite Output. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion in business activity while a value below 50 points to a contraction.Source: Markit.

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Note: Month-on-month var. of seasonally-adjusted industrial production and annual average growth rate in %. Source: Eurostat.

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In Spain, industrial production expanded 0.2% over the previous month, while in Italy it contracted 0.7%.

On an annual basis, industrial production accelerated from a revised 0.6% increase in December (previously reported: -0.2% year-on-year) to a 1.2% expansion in January. The reading represented the fastest year-on-year increase in six months. The trend remains subdued, with annual average growth in industrial production inching down from 0.7% in December to 0.6% in January.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see industrial production expanding 1.5% in 2015, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, panelists see industrial production growing 2.4%.

OUTLOOK | Economic sentiment hits highest level since July 2011The Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) elaborated by the European Commission rose from a revised 102.3 points in February (previously reported: 102.1 points) to 103.9 points in March. The reading, which was on par with market expectations, represented the highest level since July 2011 and continued to hover above the 100-point long-term average.

March’s improvement was broad based, with consumer sentiment, industry and services showing the largest gains. At a country level, high economic sentiment was registered in Malta and Slovenia and Lithuania. At the other side of the spectrum, Austria, Finland and Luxembourg were the worst performers. Among the four largest economies, all countries registered higher sentiment.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see private consumption growing 1.5% in 2015, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2016, panelists see consumption expanding 1.3%. Panelists expect investment to grow 1.2% in 2015, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2016, panelists see investment increasing 2.6%.

MONETARY SECTOR | More complete data confirms third consecutive annual fall in consumer pricesMore complete data published by Eurostat on 17 March showed that the harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) in February jumped 0.6% over the previous month, which contrasted the 1.6% drop recorded in January. In annual terms, harmonized consumer prices fell 0.3% in February, which confirmed the preliminary estimate and marked a third consecutive month in negative territory, sparking fears that the Euro area could fall into a sustained period of falling prices.

More complete data also showed that 10 of the 19 Eurozone economies posted annual inflation rates equal to or below the regional average. Greece (-1.9%), Lithuania (-1.5%), and Spain (-1.2%) recorded the lowest annual inflation rates. At the other end of the spectrum, Malta (+0.6%) and Austria (+0.5%) showed the highest year-on-year increases in harmonized consumer prices. Among the remaining major economies in the Eurozone, in Germany consumer prices fell 0.1% annually in February and in France prices dropped 0.3% over the same month last year. In Italy, harmonized inflation rose a mild 0.1% in February.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants see zero inflation in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2016, panelists expect inflation to average 1.2%.

Economic Sentiment | March 2015

Note: The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) is based on surveys addressed to the manufacturing, services, retail trade and construction sectors, as well as to consumers. Values above 100 indicate an above-average economic sentiment, whereas values below 100 indicate a below-average position. Source: European Commission.

80 90 100 110 120

LuxembourgFinlandAustriaEstoniaGreeceFrance

BelgiumSlovakia

CyprusPortugal

NetherlandsEuro areaLithuania

GermanyItaly

SpainSlovenia

Malta

Inflation | variation in %

Note: Year-on-year and monthly variation of harmonized consumer price index (HICP) in %.Source: Eurostat.

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MONETARY SECTOR | ECB leaves key rates unchanged, begins purchase of euro-denominated public sector securitiesThe European Central Bank (ECB) decided to leave the main refinancing rate unchanged at the record low of 0.05% at its 5 March monetary policy meeting held in Nicosia. The ECB also kept the deposit rate—the rate banks receive for parking funds at the ECB—at minus 0.20% and left the marginal lending rate at 0.30%. Market analysts had anticipated the Bank’s decision to maintain the rates unchanged.

The Bank’s decision came amid an improving outlook for the Eurozone economy as growth momentum is continuing to strengthen. Nonetheless, the Bank recognized that downward risks to the outlook persist, although they have diminished following the Bank’s recent monetary policy decisions and partially as a result of the fall in oil prices. In fact, the Central Bank raised its growth forecasts for the bloc’s economy for both 2015 and 2016. On the inflation side, the Bank stated that the fall in consumer prices in February, which marked the third consecutive month of decline, was mainly due to the impact of the sharp drop in global oil prices. The Bank recognized, however, that it expects inflation to remain low or negative in the coming months, while it foresees it starting to rise gradually at the end of 2015.

Regarding the quantitative easing (QE) program that the ECB launched on 22 January, the Bank began the purchase of euro-denominated public sector securities in the secondary market on 9 March. The ECB had set a target for its monthly purchases at EUR 60 billion per month; considering that the pace of asset-backed securities (ABS) and covered bond purchases has been around EUR 12 billion per month since the programs started, this means that additional purchases of sovereign bonds will be set at around EUR 50 billion per month. The ECB set end-September 2016 as the deadline for the end of the purchase program and emphasized that it is open-ended in nature as the Bank will continue purchasing assets until it sees, “a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation which is consistent with our aim of achieving inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.” ECB President Mario Draghi underlined that at the current stage, monetary authorities are not willing to enter into any discussion regarding if or when the pace of purchases may be adjusted, tapered or stop.

Skepticism persists among many analysts regarding the pace of adjustment of the QE program and its impact on the Eurozone economy. According to Nick Matthews, Senior European Economist at Nomura:

Given the current improvement in the data it is difficult to disagree with the ECB’s baseline in the short-term. But at this stage we do not have the conviction that core inflation will pick up as strongly as the ECB staff project over time for us to be confident that the staff projections will be realised and the Governing Council will be in a position to stop purchases in September 2016. We therefore continue to believe it is more likely than not that the ECB will be forced to continue its asset purchases beyond September 2016.

It also remains to be seen whether the QE program will help to revive the Eurozone economy, as skepticism persists as to whether this controversial measure will help to revive the Euro area economy and lift inflation. The ECB’s QE is an aggressive and bold program that demonstrates European monetary authorities’ commitment to fighting deflation. Whether or not it is effective

ECB Refinancing Rate | in %

Note: ECB Refinancing Rate in %.Source: European Central Bank (ECB).

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Marginal Lending RateMain Refinancing RateDeposit Rate

%

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April 2015

remains to be seen given that QE has not helped the subdued inflation situation in other countries like the U.K. and Japan.

Within this setting, all FocusEconomics panelists expect the ECB to maintain the policy rate unchanged at the current record-low of 0.05% over the course of the next two years.

MONETARY SECTOR | Euro almost touches parity with dollar, recent gains seem short livedLike many major currencies, the euro dropped to multi-year lows against the U.S. dollar in the first days of March. The euro had experienced a strengthening trend between the second half of 2012 and the first half of 2014, but this trend has reversed in the last six months. Starting in H2 2014, the euro began experiencing sharp, almost uninterrupted drops against the greenback, hitting multi-year lows in the first days of March. In fact, on 13 March, the euro traded at 1.05 EUR per USD, having weakened 7.7% over the same day the previous month and losing nearly a quarter of its value against the U.S. dollar in annual terms. This broke the psychological barrier of 1.10 EUR per USD as the euro hit the lowest level since 2002.

A variety of domestic and external factors have exerted pressure on the single currency. Among these factors are the European Central Bank’s extension of its asset purchase program—also known as quantitative easing (QE)—as well as expectations of an increase in U.S. interest rates this year and a decline in global oil prices. On the political front, the weakening of the euro has been aggravated by disagreement between the new Greek government, which is led by the anti-austerity SYRIZA party, and European leaders regarding Greece’s reform plans and whether the bailout program will keep Athens from running out of cash.

However, the euro did gain some of the ground it had lost against the greenback in recent days, which mainly resulted from recent disappointing data on the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve’s meeting in which Chair Janet Yellen made a subtle modification to the Fed’s guidance. Another factor contributing to the euro’s rally against the U.S. dollar is the notable improvement observed in economic indicators for the Eurozone. However, despite the euro’s recent uptick, further weakening is expected to continue as Mark Cliffe, Global Head of Financial Markets at ING Bank, points out:

In FX markets, the much anticipated divergence in transatlantic monetary policy is delivering a sharper-than-expected adjustment in the EUR/USD exchange rate. We had thought that parity would not be seen until year end, but aggressive EUR hedging from the buy side and still the prospect of higher US market interest rates over coming months means that we our [sic] bringing forward our parity forecast to June.

Should the depreciation of the euro continue this year, this will translate into an economic boost for export-oriented European manufacturers and ultimately for the whole economy in the Eurozone. Forecasters polled by FocusEconomics expect that the euro will trade at 1.04 EUR per USD at the end of 2015. At the end of 2016, the euro is expected to trade at 1.07 EUR per USD.

Exchange Rate | USD per EUR

Note: Daily spot of U.S. dollar (USD) against euro (EUR).Source: Thomson Reuters.

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Annual Data 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Real Sector Population (million) 331 330 331 332 332 333 334 335 335 336GDP per capita (EUR) 28,777 29,603 29,667 29,838 30,305 30,644 31,441 32,331 33,301 34,306GDP (EUR bn) 9,512 9,768 9,812 9,896 10,075 10,211 10,500 10,819 11,164 11,521Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) 2.8 2.7 0.5 0.8 1.8 1.4 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.2Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 2.0 1.7 -0.8 -0.4 0.9 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5Domestic Demand (annual variation in %) 1.5 0.7 -2.3 -0.9 0.8 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 0.8 0.2 -1.3 -0.7 1.0 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4Government Consumption (annual var. in %) 0.8 -0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.7 - - - - -Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) -0.4 1.6 -3.7 -2.5 1.0 1.2 2.6 2.2 2.1 2.0Exports (G&S, annual variation in %) 11.0 6.6 2.5 2.0 3.7 4.2 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.3Imports (G&S, annual variation in %) 9.7 4.3 -1.1 1.2 3.8 4.2 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.8Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 7.3 3.4 -2.4 -0.7 0.7 1.5 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.5Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 10.2 10.2 11.4 12.0 11.6 11.1 10.7 10.2 9.9 9.5Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -6.1 -4.1 -3.6 -2.9 -2.6 -2.3 -2.0 -1.4 -1.2 -1.1Public Debt (% of GDP) 83.7 85.8 89.0 90.9 94.5 94.8 94.1 93.9 92.7 91.2Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M3 in %) -0.7 2.2 3.0 0.5 4.8 - - - - -Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, eop) 2.2 2.8 2.2 0.9 -0.2 - - - - -Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, aop) 1.6 2.7 2.5 1.4 0.4 0.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.7Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %, aop) 2.7 5.7 2.8 -0.2 -1.4 - - - - -ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 1.00 1.00 0.75 0.25 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.39 0.76 1.543-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) 1.01 1.36 0.19 0.29 0.08 0.03 0.06 0.62 1.00 1.5710-Yr Bond Yield (weighted Euro avg. %, eop) 4.07 4.09 2.10 3.31 1.45 1.77 2.25 2.65 2.86 3.14Stock Market (Eurostoxx 50, var. in %) -2.2 -16.4 14.4 19.1 1.7 - - - - -Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.34 1.30 1.32 1.38 1.21 1.04 1.07 1.13 1.17 1.20Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, aop) 1.33 1.39 1.29 1.33 1.33 1.08 1.06 1.10 1.15 1.19External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 0.2 0.2 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.7 2.6 2.2 2.1 1.9Current Account Balance (EUR bn) 21.6 20.2 162.8 190.7 231.8 271.2 271.1 241.1 230.5 216.7Trade Balance (EUR bn) 44.2 39.9 145.4 215.6 240.9 - - - - - Quarterly Data Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.6Economic Growth (GDP, s.a. qoq var. in %) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4Private Consumption (s.a. qoq var. in %) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3Fixed Investment (s.a. qoq variation in %) 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8Exports (G&S, s.a. qoq variation in %) 1.5 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.2Imports (G&S, s.a. qoq variation in %) 1.7 0.4 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 0.5 0.2 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 11.5 11.4 11.2 11.1 11.0 10.9 10.8 10.6 10.6 10.5Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, aop) 0.4 0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.053-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) 0.08 0.08 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.06Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.26 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.06 1.07Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, aop) 1.33 1.25 1.15 1.07 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.07 Monthly Data Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 0.3 1.7 -0.5 0.1 0.7 -0.6 0.6 1.2 - -Industrial Production (s.a. mom var. in %) -0.2 0.7 -1.2 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 -0.1 - -Unemployment (% of active population) 11.6 11.6 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.3 11.2 - -Econ. Sent. Indicator (100-point threshold) 102.4 102.5 100.9 100.2 100.9 100.8 100.9 101.5 102.3 103.9Markit Composite PMI (50-threshold) 52.8 53.8 52.5 52.0 52.2 51.1 51.4 52.6 53.3 54.1Inflation (HICP, mom variation in %) 0.1 -0.7 0.1 0.4 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -1.6 0.6 -Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 -0.2 -0.6 -0.3 -Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.37 1.34 1.32 1.26 1.25 1.25 1.21 1.13 1.12 -

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Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from Eurostat. Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.1 GDP, real annual variation in %. 2 Quarterly GDP (seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.3 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016Allianz 1.5 1.6Banco BPI 1.0 1.7Bankia 1.5 1.8BBVA Research 1.3 2.2Berenberg 1.3 1.9Berliner Sparkasse 1.3 1.3BNP Paribas 1.1 1.8Citigroup Global Mkts 1.5 2.0Coe-Rexecode 1.6 1.7Commerzbank 1.2 1.3Credit Agricole 1.0 1.5Credit Suisse 1.5 2.1DekaBank 1.5 1.7Deutsche Bank 1.4 1.6DIW Berlin 1.3 1.4DNB 1.2 1.3DZ Bank 1.3 1.5EIU 1.3 1.5Eurobank 1.1 -Goldman Sachs 1.5 1.7Gruppo MPS 1.0 1.5Holding Monex 1.2 1.5Ifo Institut 0.9 -ING 1.4 1.7Instituto Flores de Lemus 1.4 1.8Intesa Sanpaolo 1.1 1.6JPMorgan 1.7 2.5Julius Baer 1.5 1.8KBC 1.6 1.8Kiel Institute 1.3 1.7La Caixa 1.5 1.8Lloyds TSB 1.0 1.9NIBC Bank 1.1 0.2Nomura 1.1 1.1Nordea 1.3 1.6Novo Banco 1.2 1.7Oxford Economics 1.6 1.8Raiffeisen Research 1.3 1.9Sal. Oppenheim 1.3 1.6Scotiabank 1.3 1.6Société Générale 1.3 1.5Standard Chartered 1.5 2.1UBS 1.6 2.0Unicredit 1.4 1.8SummaryMinimum 0.9 0.2Maximum 1.7 2.5Median 1.3 1.7Consensus 1.3 1.7History30 days ago 1.2 1.660 days ago 1.1 1.590 days ago 1.1 1.5Additional ForecastsEuropean Commission (Feb. 2015) 1.3 1.9ECB (Mar. 2015) 1.5 1.9IMF (Jan. 2015) 1.2 1.4

2 | Real GDP | Q1 12-Q4 16 | var. in %


1 | Real GDP | 2000-2019 | var. in %

-6

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3

6

2000 2005 2010 2015

Euro areaG7World -2

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Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

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G7

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3




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1.0

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3.0


2015 2016


-15

-10

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0

5

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

Euro areaG7


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2015 2016


-2

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2

4

2000 2005 2010 2015

Euro area

G7


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Allianz 1.8 1.4 1.7 2.8Banco BPI - - - -Bankia - - - -BBVA Research 1.4 1.7 0.9 4.6Berenberg 1.5 1.2 1.4 3.2Berliner Sparkasse 1.6 0.9 0.4 1.5BNP Paribas 1.8 1.4 0.4 2.1Citigroup Global Mkts 1.8 1.6 1.5 3.0Coe-Rexecode 2.0 1.9 1.2 1.5Commerzbank 1.6 1.6 1.4 2.1Credit Agricole 1.2 1.3 0.7 2.4Credit Suisse 1.7 1.6 2.1 4.0DekaBank 1.0 1.1 1.3 2.6Deutsche Bank 1.8 1.4 1.8 3.9DIW Berlin - - - -DNB 1.6 1.0 0.3 1.8DZ Bank 1.4 1.3 1.1 2.3EIU 1.3 1.0 - -Eurobank 1.2 - 0.9 -Goldman Sachs - - - -Gruppo MPS 0.8 1.1 0.5 1.6Holding Monex 1.4 1.2 2.1 0.7Ifo Institut 0.7 - 0.7 -ING - - - -Instituto Flores de Lemus 1.4 1.2 1.3 3.9Intesa Sanpaolo 1.2 1.1 1.1 2.7JPMorgan 2.1 - 1.9 -Julius Baer - - - -KBC - - - -Kiel Institute 1.3 1.5 1.5 2.7La Caixa - - - -Lloyds TSB - - - -NIBC Bank 1.1 0.6 - -Nomura 1.3 0.9 1.0 1.4Nordea - - - -Novo Banco 1.3 1.4 1.7 3.9Oxford Economics 1.8 1.5 1.0 2.8Raiffeisen Research 1.6 1.6 1.0 2.6Sal. Oppenheim 1.5 1.2 1.1 2.4Scotiabank - - - -Société Générale 1.6 1.4 1.2 2.4Standard Chartered - - - -UBS 1.5 1.6 2.1 3.6Unicredit - - - -SummaryMinimum 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.7Maximum 2.1 1.9 2.1 4.6Median 1.5 1.4 1.2 2.6Consensus 1.5 1.3 1.2 2.6History30 days ago 1.3 1.3 1.1 2.760 days ago 1.2 1.2 1.2 2.590 days ago 1.1 1.2 1.1 2.4


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from Eurostat. Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.6 Private consumption, annual variation in %. 7 Private consumption, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.9 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

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3

4

5

6


2015 2016


-15

-5

5

15

2000 2005 2010 2015

Euro area

G7


-15

-5

5

15

2000 2005 2010 2015

Euro area

G7


3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0


2015 2016


Exports and Imports

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Allianz 4.3 4.2 4.6 4.4Banco BPI - - - -Bankia - - - -BBVA Research 4.8 4.9 4.8 5.0Berenberg - - - -Berliner Sparkasse 3.7 3.7 3.9 3.5BNP Paribas - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts 3.8 4.0 4.0 3.7Coe-Rexecode 4.6 5.2 4.2 5.2Commerzbank - - - -Credit Agricole 3.8 4.7 4.1 4.8Credit Suisse 4.4 5.0 4.1 5.1DekaBank 5.3 6.9 5.3 7.7Deutsche Bank 4.1 5.2 4.6 5.9DIW Berlin - - - -DNB 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.3DZ Bank 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.5EIU 3.3 3.8 3.3 3.5Eurobank 3.9 - 4.0 -Goldman Sachs - - - -Gruppo MPS 3.9 5.3 3.1 4.8Holding Monex 3.7 6.2 4.9 5.8Ifo Institut 4.4 - 4.2 -ING - - - -Instituto Flores de Lemus 5.4 4.1 5.6 3.9Intesa Sanpaolo 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.5JPMorgan 3.9 - 4.5 -Julius Baer - - - -KBC - - - -Kiel Institute 4.2 5.8 4.3 6.1La Caixa - - - -Lloyds TSB - - - -NIBC Bank - - - -Nomura 3.9 3.4 3.3 3.3Nordea - - - -Novo Banco 3.9 5.0 3.9 5.5Oxford Economics - - - -Raiffeisen Research 5.0 4.8 4.5 5.0Sal. Oppenheim 4.2 4.8 3.7 4.6Scotiabank - - - -Société Générale 4.2 4.0 3.9 4.1Standard Chartered - - - -UBS 4.0 4.4 4.2 4.9Unicredit - - - -SummaryMinimum 3.3 3.4 3.1 3.3Maximum 5.4 6.9 5.6 7.7Median 4.1 4.7 4.2 4.8Consensus 4.2 4.7 4.2 4.7History30 days ago 4.1 4.6 4.3 4.660 days ago 3.8 4.4 4.0 4.590 days ago 3.7 4.2 3.8 4.2


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from Eurostat. Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 10 Real exports of goods and services, annual variation in %. 11 Exports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.12 Real imports of goods and services, annual variation in %. 13 Imports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Sample Report





April 2015


10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0


2015 2016


4

6

8

10

12

14

2000 2005 2010 2015

Euro area

G7


-20

-10

0

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

Euro area

G7


1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0


2015 2016

15 | Industry | evolution of fcst


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Allianz 1.5 2.2 11.0 10.5Banco BPI - - - -Bankia - - - -BBVA Research - - 11.2 10.6Berenberg 1.0 2.0 10.9 10.2Berliner Sparkasse 0.4 1.0 11.0 10.5BNP Paribas - - 11.5 11.1Citigroup Global Mkts 1.6 3.6 10.7 9.9Coe-Rexecode - - 11.2 10.8Commerzbank - - 11.2 10.7Credit Agricole - - 11.3 10.8Credit Suisse 2.7 3.2 11.2 10.6DekaBank - - 11.0 10.3Deutsche Bank 0.7 1.6 11.0 10.3DIW Berlin - - 11.1 10.7DNB - - 11.1 10.8DZ Bank - - 11.2 11.0EIU - - 11.1 10.7Eurobank - - 11.3 -Goldman Sachs - - - -Gruppo MPS - - 11.4 11.0Holding Monex 1.7 2.5 11.4 11.4Ifo Institut - - 11.5 -ING - - - -Instituto Flores de Lemus 2.1 1.6 - -Intesa Sanpaolo 1.1 2.3 11.3 10.8JPMorgan 1.8 - 10.9 -Julius Baer - - - -KBC - - - -Kiel Institute - - 11.1 10.5La Caixa - - 10.9 10.3Lloyds TSB - - - -NIBC Bank - - 11.0 10.8Nomura - - 11.3 11.2Nordea - - - -Novo Banco - - 11.3 10.8Oxford Economics 1.7 2.3 11.1 10.6Raiffeisen Research 1.6 3.8 11.1 10.9Sal. Oppenheim - - - -Scotiabank - - - -Société Générale - - 11.2 10.9Standard Chartered - - - -UBS 1.1 2.6 11.0 10.6Unicredit - - - -SummaryMinimum 0.4 1.0 10.7 9.9Maximum 2.7 3.8 11.5 11.4Median 1.6 2.3 11.1 10.7Consensus 1.5 2.4 11.1 10.7History30 days ago 1.4 2.2 11.2 10.860 days ago 1.2 2.2 11.3 10.990 days ago 1.2 2.2 11.3 10.9


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from Eurostat. Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.14 Industrial production, annual variation in %. 15 Industrial production, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months. 16 Unemployment, % of active population. 17 Unemployment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Sample Report





April 2015


93

94

95

96

97


2015 2016

21 | Public Debt | evolution of fcst

60

80

100

120

2000 2005 2010 2015

Euro area

G7


-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2000 2005 2010 2015

Euro area

G7


-2.6

-2.4

-2.2

-2.0

-1.8

-1.6


2015 2016

19 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Allianz -2.0 -1.8 - -Banco BPI - - - -Bankia - - - -BBVA Research -2.5 -2.0 - -Berenberg -2.5 -2.2 94.0 93.2Berliner Sparkasse -2.8 -2.7 - -BNP Paribas -2.4 -2.1 97.0 96.0Citigroup Global Mkts -2.1 -1.7 94.9 93.9Coe-Rexecode -2.2 -1.8 94.2 93.9Commerzbank - - - -Credit Agricole -2.5 -2.2 94.3 93.5Credit Suisse -2.2 -1.8 - -DekaBank -2.3 -2.0 - -Deutsche Bank -2.5 -2.3 95.0 95.0DIW Berlin - - - -DNB - - - -DZ Bank -2.3 -2.0 94.8 93.8EIU -2.2 -1.9 96.1 95.9Eurobank -2.4 - - -Goldman Sachs -2.5 -1.8 - -Gruppo MPS -2.4 - 94.8 -Holding Monex - - - -Ifo Institut -2.5 - - -ING -2.3 -2.0 94.3 94.0Instituto Flores de Lemus - - - -Intesa Sanpaolo - - - -JPMorgan -2.6 - - -Julius Baer - - - -KBC - - - -Kiel Institute -2.3 -2.1 - -La Caixa - - - -Lloyds TSB - - - -NIBC Bank - - - -Nomura -2.5 -2.4 - -Nordea -2.2 -1.9 - -Novo Banco -2.4 -2.1 94.8 93.8Oxford Economics -1.9 -1.6 97.1 97.3Raiffeisen Research -2.4 -2.1 92.5 91.6Sal. Oppenheim - - - -Scotiabank - - - -Société Générale -2.2 -1.9 92.7 91.5Standard Chartered - - - -UBS -2.4 -2.0 95.4 94.7Unicredit -2.2 -1.9 94.7 94.0SummaryMinimum -2.8 -2.7 92.5 91.5Maximum -1.9 -1.6 97.1 97.3Median -2.4 -2.0 94.8 93.9Consensus -2.3 -2.0 94.8 94.1History30 days ago -2.4 -2.0 95.2 94.660 days ago -2.4 -2.1 95.1 94.590 days ago -2.4 -2.1 95.1 94.6


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from Eurostat. Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.18 Fiscal balance as % of GDP. 19 Fiscal balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months. 20 Public debt as % of GDP. 21 Public debt as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Sample Report





April 2015

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

< -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 > 0.8


22 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | in %

24 | Inflation 2015 | evolution of fcst

23 | Inflation | Q1 12-Q4 16 | in %

25 | Inflation 2016 | evolution of fcst

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from Eurostat. Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.22 Inflation, annual average variation of harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) in %.23 Inflation, annual variation of quarterly average harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP)

in %. 24 Inflation, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.25 Inflation, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.26 Inflation, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016Allianz -0.1 1.2Banco BPI 0.2 1.5Bankia 0.0 0.7BBVA Research 0.1 1.0Berenberg 0.1 1.2Berliner Sparkasse -0.2 1.6BNP Paribas 0.0 1.0Citigroup Global Mkts 0.2 1.5Coe-Rexecode 0.2 1.1Commerzbank -0.1 1.2Credit Agricole 0.3 1.2Credit Suisse 0.1 1.2DekaBank 0.3 1.4Deutsche Bank 0.0 1.4DIW Berlin 0.2 1.0DNB 0.1 0.8DZ Bank -0.1 0.9EIU -0.2 0.8Eurobank -0.2 -Goldman Sachs 0.0 1.3Gruppo MPS 0.1 1.3Holding Monex -0.5 -0.2Ifo Institut - -ING 0.1 1.5Instituto Flores de Lemus 0.1 1.4Intesa Sanpaolo - -JPMorgan 0.1 -Julius Baer 0.2 1.6KBC 0.0 1.4Kiel Institute 0.0 1.1La Caixa 0.3 1.6Lloyds TSB -0.1 1.1NIBC Bank -0.3 0.4Nomura 0.1 0.7Nordea 0.2 1.2Novo Banco 0.4 1.0Oxford Economics -0.1 1.1Raiffeisen Research 0.1 1.4Sal. Oppenheim 0.0 1.3Scotiabank 0.0 1.1Société Générale 0.0 1.1Standard Chartered 0.2 1.7UBS 0.1 1.5Unicredit -0.1 1.2SummaryMinimum -0.5 -0.2Maximum 0.4 1.7Median 0.1 1.2Consensus 0.0 1.2History30 days ago 0.0 1.160 days ago 0.1 1.190 days ago 0.6 1.2Additional ForecastsEuropean Commission (Feb. 2015) -0.1 1.3ECB (Mar. 2015) 0.0 1.5IMF (Oct. 2014) 0.9 1.2



-1

0

1

2

3



-1

0

1

2

3

4

2000 2005 2010 2015

Euro area

G7

-1

0

1

2

3



-1

0

1

2

3

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

Euro area

G7

Sample Report





April 2015


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0


2015 2016

30 | Benchmark Rate | evolution of fcst

0

2

4

6

8

2000 2005 2010 2015

Euro areaUnited StatesJapan

29 | Benchmark Rate | in %

0

2

4

6

8

2000 2005 2010 2015

Euro areaUnited StatesJapan


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0


2015 2016

28 | Policy Rate | evolution of fcst

ECB Refinancing Rate and 3-Month EURIBOR

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Allianz - - 0.10 0.30Banco BPI 0.05 0.05 0.01 0.07Bankia 0.05 0.05 -0.03 0.00BBVA Research 0.05 0.05 0.10 0.16Berenberg 0.05 0.05 - -Berliner Sparkasse - - - -BNP Paribas 0.05 - 0.10 -Citigroup Global Mkts 0.05 - - -Coe-Rexecode - - 0.00 0.00Commerzbank 0.05 - 0.00 -Credit Agricole 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05Credit Suisse 0.05 0.05 - -DekaBank 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00Deutsche Bank 0.05 - -0.10 -DIW Berlin - - - -DNB 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.00DZ Bank - - - -EIU - - - -Eurobank 0.05 - - -Goldman Sachs - - - -Gruppo MPS 0.05 0.05 0.01 0.08Holding Monex 0.05 0.00 0.08 0.03Ifo Institut - - - -ING 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.15Instituto Flores de Lemus - - - -Intesa Sanpaolo 0.05 0.05 0.07 0.10JPMorgan 0.05 - - -Julius Baer 0.05 0.05 - -KBC 0.05 - - -Kiel Institute 0.05 0.05 - -La Caixa 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.10Lloyds TSB 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.10NIBC Bank 0.05 0.05 - -Nomura 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00Nordea 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00Novo Banco 0.05 0.05 - -Oxford Economics - - 0.07 0.07Raiffeisen Research 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.10Sal. Oppenheim 0.05 0.05 0.02 0.02Scotiabank 0.05 0.05 - -Société Générale 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.10Standard Chartered 0.05 - 0.05 0.05UBS 0.05 0.05 -0.05 -0.05Unicredit 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05SummaryMinimum 0.05 0.00 -0.10 -0.05Maximum 0.05 0.05 0.10 0.30Median 0.05 0.05 0.03 0.05Consensus 0.05 0.05 0.03 0.06History30 days ago 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.1060 days ago 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.1090 days ago 0.05 0.06 0.08 0.15

Refinancing Rate 3-Month EURIBOR in % in %

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the European Central Bank (ECB), the Federal Reserve Board (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.27 Refinancing rate in % (eop). 28 Refinancing rate, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.29 3-month EURIBOR in % (eop). 30 3-month EURIBOR, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Sample Report





April 2015

0%

20%

40%

60%

< 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.10 1.20 1.30 1.40 > 1.40


31 | Exchange Rate | USD per EUR

33 | USD per EUR 2015 | evol. of fcst

32 | Exchange Rate | USD per EUR

34 | USD per EUR 2016 | evol. of fcst

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from European Central Bank (ECB). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.31 Exchange rate, USD per EUR (eop).32 Quarterly exchange rate, USD per EUR (eop).33 Exchange rate, evolution of 2015 forecast during the last 18 months.34 Exchange rate, evolution of 2016 forecast during the last 18 months.35 Exchange rate, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016Allianz - -Banco BPI - -Bankia 1.00 1.10BBVA Research 1.15 1.20Berenberg - -Berliner Sparkasse - -BNP Paribas - -Citigroup Global Mkts 0.93 -Coe-Rexecode 1.00 1.09Commerzbank 1.04 -Credit Agricole 1.05 1.11Credit Suisse 1.00 -DekaBank 1.02 1.00Deutsche Bank 1.00 -DIW Berlin - -DNB - -DZ Bank - -EIU 1.03 1.06Eurobank - -Goldman Sachs - -Gruppo MPS - -Holding Monex 1.09 1.05Ifo Institut - -ING 0.95 0.90Instituto Flores de Lemus - -Intesa Sanpaolo - -JPMorgan 1.05 -Julius Baer - -KBC 0.95 -Kiel Institute 1.10 1.10La Caixa 1.04 1.06Lloyds TSB 1.07 1.15NIBC Bank 1.10 1.15Nomura 1.05 1.05Nordea 1.05 1.00Novo Banco 1.12 1.09Oxford Economics 1.01 1.01Raiffeisen Research 0.90 1.10Sal. Oppenheim - -Scotiabank 1.05 1.00Société Générale 1.00 1.00Standard Chartered 1.10 1.05UBS 1.15 1.10Unicredit 1.08 1.16SummaryMinimum 0.90 0.90Maximum 1.15 1.20Median 1.05 1.08Consensus 1.04 1.07History30 days ago 1.11 1.1160 days ago 1.13 1.1190 days ago 1.18 1.15

35 | USD per EUR 2015 | Panelist Distribution

Exchange Rate | USD per EUR

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6



0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

2000 2005 2010 2015

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6



1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

Sample Report





April 2015

0%

20%

40%

60%

< 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 > 4.5






Individual Forecasts 2015 2016Allianz 2.6 2.3Banco BPI - -Bankia - -BBVA Research 2.7 2.7Berenberg 2.6 2.6Berliner Sparkasse 3.3 3.4BNP Paribas 2.8 2.9Citigroup Global Mkts 2.3 2.1Coe-Rexecode 2.7 2.9Commerzbank 2.4 1.9Credit Agricole 2.3 2.2Credit Suisse - -DekaBank 2.5 2.6Deutsche Bank 2.2 2.0DIW Berlin - -DNB - -DZ Bank 2.6 2.7EIU 3.2 3.1Eurobank 2.5 -Goldman Sachs - -Gruppo MPS 2.6 -Holding Monex - -Ifo Institut 2.7 -ING - -Instituto Flores de Lemus - -Intesa Sanpaolo 2.7 2.5JPMorgan - -Julius Baer - -KBC - -Kiel Institute 2.5 2.6La Caixa - -Lloyds TSB - -NIBC Bank - -Nomura 2.9 3.1Nordea 2.9 2.7Novo Banco 2.5 2.5Oxford Economics 2.7 2.4Raiffeisen Research 2.4 2.2Sal. Oppenheim - -Scotiabank 2.5 2.2Société Générale 2.7 2.8Standard Chartered 3.1 2.9UBS 2.4 2.3Unicredit 3.0 2.9SummaryMinimum 2.2 1.9Maximum 3.3 3.4Median 2.6 2.6Consensus 2.7 2.6History30 days ago 2.7 2.560 days ago 2.6 2.590 days ago 2.5 2.5



0

1

2

3

4



-2

-1

0

1

2

3

2000 2005 2010 2015

Euro area

G7

0

1

2

3

4



0

1

2

3

4

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from Eurostat. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.36 Current account balance as % of GDP.37 4-quarter moving average of current account balance as % of GDP.38 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.39 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.40 Current account balance as % of GDP, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration


Sample Report



FOCUSECONOMICS France


April 2015

France

REAL SECTOR | French GDP growth slows in Q4More complete data released by the statistical office (INSEE) confirmed that the French economy decelerated in the last quarter of 2014. In Q4, GDP increased a seasonally-adjusted 0.1% over the previous quarter, which came in below the 0.3% rise seen in Q3 and was on par with market expectations. Yea-on-year, GDP decelerated from a 0.4% increase in Q3 to 0.2% expansion in Q4. In 2014, the French economy increased 0.4%, which matched the growth rate seen in 2013.

The fourth quarter’s deceleration was the result of slower growth in domestic demand. Private consumption grew 0.2% in Q4, below the 0.3% rise in Q3. Government spending increased 0.5% in Q4, a tad below the 0.6% expansion in Q3. Meanwhile, gross fixed investment continued to contract in Q4, although at a slower pace than in Q3 (Q4: -0.5% quarter-on-quarter; Q3: -0.6% qoq).

On a positive note, the external sector improved in the last quarter of 2014 as exports of goods and services expanded a robust 2.5% over the previous quarter (Q3: +1.0% qoq), while imports increased 1.7% (Q3: +1.7% qoq). As a result, the external sector’s net contribution to overall economic growth swung from minus 0.2 percentage points in Q3 to plus 0.2 percentage points in Q4.

Outlook improves


France

2011-13 2014-16 2017-19Population (million): 63.4 64.2 65.1GDP (EUR bn): 2,088 2,178 2,357GDP per capita (EUR): 32,945 33,896 36,186GDP growth (%): 0.8 0.9 1.7Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -4.7 -4.1 -2.6Public Debt (% of GDP): 88.8 97.3 99.7Inflation (%): 1.8 0.6 1.3Current Account (% of GDP): -1.7 -1.0 -0.8

Ricardo AcevesSenior Economist


Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally-adjusted GDP and year-on-year variation in %.Source: National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

-1.5

0.0

1.5

3.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015



% %

• Following the anemic growth recorded in the final quarter of 2014, recent economic indicators signal that the economy is gradually shifting into higher gear. Industrial production expanded for a second consecutive month in January and the March Composite PMI suggests that French business activity is expanding. In addition, March sentiment surveys showed that businesses and consumers are perceiving a mild economic recovery. On the political front, the right-wing National Front (FN) made limited gains in the second-round local elections held on 29 March. Conversely, former president Nicolas Sarkozy’s Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) and its allies scored a key victory, garnering over two-thirds of the 101 departments. Although voter turnout was low, the election result represents the current electoral mood as the popularity of the Socialist Party, and particularly that of President François Hollande, is at a record low.

• The French economy is going to benefit from a stimulatory monetary policy, low oil prices and a less restrictive fiscal policy. In addition, the weaker euro is likely to boost exports to countries outside the Eurozone. FocusEconomics panelists raised their growth forecasts by 0.1 percentage points over the previous month and now expect the French economy to expand 1.0% in 2015. For 2016, panelists expect economic growth to accelerate to 1.4%.

• In February, the annual fall in consumer prices moderated compared to the previous month but inflation is likely to start rising in the coming months. Panelists foresee HICP inflation averaging 0.2% in 2015 and 1.1% in 2016.

Sample Report





April 2015

The government expects the economy to increase 1.0% in 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to grow 1.0% in 2015, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, panelists see economic growth at 1.4%.

REAL SECTOR | Composite PMI moderates in March, still signals expansion in business activityThe composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) elaborated by Markit moderated in March, inching down from February’s three-and-half year high 52.2 to 51.7 in March. With March’s result, the composite PMI remained for the second consecutive month above the 50-threshold that indicates expansion in business activity, after the indicator had remained in contractionary territory over the last nine months.

According to Markit, “the rate of growth eased since February and was modest overall.” As in previous surveys, business activity growth in services offset a decrease in activity in the manufacturing sector. Growth in services was solid, although slower than in the previous month. In the manufacturing sector, business activity registered a similar drop as in February. Markit reported that new businesses rose for the fourth consecutive month in March and the growth pace was the fastest since August 2011. Conversely, new export orders in the manufacturing sector continued to contract in March. Meanwhile, employment rose for the first time in 17 months, but the increase was only marginal over the previous month.

Markit concluded that, “March’s PMI data show a further tentative expansion of output in France’s private sector economy. […] However, the divergence in sector performance continued, with the service sector again shouldering the burden of expansion amid ongoing contraction in manufacturing.”

REAL SECTOR | Industrial production expands for second consecutive monthIn January, industrial production expanded a seasonally-adjusted 0.4% over the previous month, which came in below the revised 1.4% expansion tallied in December (previously reported: +1.5% month-on-month). The print, which overshot the 0.3% contraction the markets had expected, reflected a deterioration in both manufacturing and construction.

In annual terms, industrial output swung from a 0.4% contraction in December to a 0.6% increase in January, which marked the first expansion in industrial output since November 2013.

The trend appeared to have stabilized. The annual average variation in industrial production remained unchanged at December’s minus 1.0% in January.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect industrial production to increase 0.7% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel expects industrial output to expand 1.9%.

OUTLOOK | Confidence among French firms wanes somewhat in MarchThe monthly business sentiment index published by the National Statistical Institute (INSEE) inched down from February’s 100 points to 99 points in March. The reading also fell short of the 100 points the markets had expected. The


Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally-adjusted industrial production and annual growth rate in %.Source: National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) and FocusEconomics calculations.

-6.0

-3.0

0.0

3.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0




%%



40

45

50

55


Sample Report





April 2015

indicator has been below the long-term 100-point average—the benchmark measure the INSEE uses to distinguish between improving and worsening business expectations—in nine of the last 11 months.

March’s mild drop reflected that businesses were less optimistic regarding their own production expectations. Respondents to the March survey also signaled more pessimism regarding their own business activity compared to a year ago. Conversely, firms’ assessment regarding general production expectations improved over the previous month along with businesses’ opinions about global order books.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see fixed investment decreasing 0.4% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points over the previous month’s estimate. For 2016, the panel sees investment expanding 2.2%.

OUTLOOK | Confidence among consumers rises to highest level in over four yearsThe consumer confidence indicator elaborated by the National Statistics Institute (INSEE) rose from February’s 92 points to 93 points in March and matched market expectations. The result marked the highest level since November 2010. Despite the increase, the index is still below its long-term average of 100.

According to INSEE, March’s result reflected consumers’ more optimistic opinions regarding both their current living standards as well as their future living standards. In addition, households responded that they were more optimistic regarding their current and future savings capacity. This month’s survey also showed consumers’ more optimistic assessment regarding employment prospects and households’ intentions to buy big ticket items in the next 12 months improved over the previous month.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect private consumption to increase 1.3% in 2015, which is up 0.2 percentage points over last month’s forecast. The panel expects private consumption to accelerate to a 1.4% rise in 2016.

MONETARY SECTOR | Annual fall in consumer prices moderates in February In February, consumer prices jumped 0.7% over the previous month. The increase contrasted the 1.0% drop observed in January, which had represented the fastest monthly drop in several years and slightly overshot the 0.6% increase the markets has expected. According to the national statistical institute (INSEE), higher prices for manufactured products are due to the end of the seasonal sales as well as winter services tariffs related to the holidays.

Despite the monthly increase, consumer prices fell 0.3% in February over the same month last year, which followed the 0.4% drop observed in January. Core consumer prices, which do not consider volatile categories such as fresh food and energy prices nor regulated prices rose 0.2% over the previous month, which was up from the flat reading observed in January. Annual core inflation inched down from 0.2% in January to 0.1% in February.

Harmonized consumer prices (based on the harmonized index of consumer prices, HICP) rose 0.7% over the previous month (January: -1.1% month-on-month). Harmonized consumer prices fell 0.3% annually in February as well.


Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month variation of consumer price index in %.Source: National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE).

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0


Month-on-month (left scale) Year-on-year (right scale)

%%

Consumer Confidence

Note: Value of monthly consumer confidence index; long-term average at 100.Source: National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE).

80

85

90

95

100


Business Sentiment

Note: Value of monthly business sentiment indicator index; long-term avg. at 100.Source: National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE).

85

90

95

100

105


Sample Report





April 2015

Annual average HICP inflation inched down from 0.5% in January to 0.4% in February.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect HICP inflation to average 0.2% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2016, panelists project that inflation will accelerate to 1.1%.

Sample Report





April 2015


Annual Data 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Real Sector Population (million) 62.8 63.1 63.4 63.7 64.0 64.2 64.5 64.8 65.1 65.4GDP per capita (EUR) 31,823 32,630 32,981 33,223 33,507 33,748 34,433 35,256 36,174 37,127GDP (EUR bn) 1,997 2,058 2,090 2,115 2,143 2,168 2,222 2,286 2,356 2,429Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) 3.0 3.0 1.6 1.2 1.3 1.2 2.5 2.9 3.1 3.1Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 1.9 2.1 0.0 0.4 0.4 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.7Domestic Demand (annual variation in %) 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.5 0.4 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 1.8 0.4 -0.4 0.3 0.6 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2Government Consumption (ann. var. in %) 1.2 1.0 1.7 2.0 1.9 - - - - -Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) 1.9 2.1 0.4 -0.8 -1.6 -0.4 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3Exports (G&S, annual variation in %) 8.6 7.1 1.2 2.4 2.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.0Imports (G&S, annual variation in %) 8.5 6.5 -1.2 1.9 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.1Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 4.9 2.3 -2.6 -0.5 -1.0 0.7 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7Retail Sales (annual variation in %) 2.9 1.8 0.6 1.1 1.2 - - - - -Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 9.3 9.2 9.8 10.3 10.2 10.3 10.0 9.9 9.2 9.1Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -6.8 -5.1 -4.9 -4.1 -4.4 -4.2 -3.9 -3.0 -2.6 -2.3Public Debt (% of GDP) 81.5 85.0 89.2 92.2 95.4 97.6 98.9 99.6 99.7 99.7Monetary and Financial Sector Inflation (Core, annual variation in %, aop) 1.1 1.1 1.3 0.6 0.2 - - - - -Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, eop) 2.0 2.7 1.5 0.8 0.1 - - - - -Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, aop) 1.7 2.3 2.2 1.0 0.6 0.2 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.4Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %, eop) 2.7 5.4 2.8 0.3 -1.4 - - - - -ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 1.00 1.00 0.75 0.25 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.39 0.76 1.543-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) 1.01 1.36 0.19 0.29 0.08 0.03 0.06 0.62 1.00 1.5710-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 3.35 3.15 1.99 2.43 0.84 0.68 1.08 1.16 1.86 2.35Stock Market (variation of CAC 40 in %) -3.3 -17.0 15.2 18.0 -0.5 - - - - -Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.34 1.30 1.32 1.38 1.21 1.04 1.07 1.13 1.17 1.20Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, aop) 1.33 1.39 1.29 1.33 1.33 1.08 1.06 1.10 1.15 1.19External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -1.3 -1.7 -2.1 -1.3 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6Current Account Balance (EUR bn) -25.0 -35.0 -44.0 -28.0 -22.0 -22.0 -21.6 -21.5 -18.3 -15.4Trade Balance (EUR bn) -53.5 -76.6 -70.6 -62.3 -53.2 - - - - - Quarterly Data Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5Economic Growth (GDP, s.a. qoq var. in %) 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 10.3 10.3 10.2 10.2 10.1 10.0 10.0 10.0 9.8 9.7Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, aop) 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.053-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) 0.08 0.08 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.0610-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 1.29 0.84 0.57 0.55 0.66 0.68 0.80 0.88 0.91 1.08Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.26 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.06 1.07 Monthly Data Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15Industrial Production (annual variation in %) -0.6 0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -1.1 -2.9 -0.4 0.6 - -Industrial Production (s.a. mom var. in %) 1.4 0.5 -0.2 0.0 -0.8 -0.3 1.4 0.4 - -Unemployment (eop, % of active population) 10.2 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.2 10.3 10.3 10.2 - -Markit Composite PMI (50-threshold) 48.1 49.4 49.5 48.4 48.2 47.9 49.7 49.3 52.2 51.7Consumer Conf. (long-term avg. 100) 86 87 86 87 86 88 90 90 92 93Business Sentiment (long-term avg. 100) 98 97 96 96 98 99 99 100 100 99Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.0 -0.3 0.4 -0.4 0.0 -0.2 0.1 -1.0 0.7 -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 -0.4 -0.3 -Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %) 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 -0.4 -0.3 -Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.37 1.34 1.32 1.26 1.25 1.25 1.21 1.13 1.12 -

Sample Report





April 2015


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INSEE, Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.1 GDP, annual variation in %.2 Quarterly GDP (seasonally adjusted), quarter-on-quarter variation in %.3 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

< 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 > 1.7


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016Asterès 1.1 -BBVA Research 1.0 1.8Berenberg 0.8 1.4BNP Paribas 0.9 1.5Citigroup Global Mkts 1.2 1.8Coe-Rexecode 1.2 1.6Commerzbank 0.9 0.9Credit Agricole 0.9 1.2Credit Suisse 1.3 1.9DekaBank 1.0 1.4Deutsche Bank 1.1 1.6DIW Berlin 0.7 1.2DZ Bank 1.0 1.3EIU 0.9 1.2Frontier Strategy Group 0.7 1.0Goldman Sachs 1.1 1.7ING 1.3 1.6Intesa Sanpaolo 0.7 1.4JPMorgan 1.3 2.1Julius Baer 0.8 0.9Lloyds TSB 1.2 1.7Nomura 0.9 0.8Nordea 0.9 1.2OFCE 1.1 -Oxford Economics 1.2 1.7Raiffeisen Research 0.7 1.5Scotiabank 0.8 1.3Société Générale 0.8 1.3UBS 1.0 1.5Unicredit 0.9 1.5Xerfi 1.2 1.8SummaryMinimum 0.7 0.8Maximum 1.3 2.1Median 1.0 1.5Consensus 1.0 1.4History30 days ago 0.9 1.460 days ago 0.9 1.490 days ago 0.9 1.3Additional ForecastsEuropean Commission (Feb. 2015) 1.0 1.8IMF (Jan. 2015) 0.9 1.3

1 | Real GDP | 2000-2019 | var. in %


2 | Real GDP | Q1 12-Q4 16 | var. in %


-4

-2

0

2

4

6

2000 2005 2010 2015

FranceG7World -0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

France

G7

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5



0

1

2

3




Sample Report





April 2015



-1

0

1

2

3


2015 2016


-20

-10

0

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

France

G7


0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6


2015 2016


-2

0

2

4

2000 2005 2010 2015

France

G7


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Asterès 0.9 - -0.9 -BBVA Research 1.3 1.4 0.0 -Berenberg 1.0 1.2 -0.9 1.3BNP Paribas 1.3 1.6 -0.7 2.2Citigroup Global Mkts 1.3 1.5 -0.5 2.3Coe-Rexecode 1.7 1.5 -0.6 1.8Commerzbank - - - -Credit Agricole 1.0 1.2 -0.5 1.5Credit Suisse 1.2 1.4 1.1 4.1DekaBank - - - -Deutsche Bank 1.8 1.6 -0.4 3.4DIW Berlin - - - -DZ Bank 1.4 1.4 -0.8 1.3EIU 1.2 1.1 0.5 1.4Frontier Strategy Group 0.7 1.2 - -Goldman Sachs - - - -ING 1.5 1.3 0.0 4.2Intesa Sanpaolo 1.2 1.7 0.3 2.2JPMorgan - - - -Julius Baer - - - -Lloyds TSB - - - -Nomura 1.0 1.0 -0.5 0.7Nordea - - - -OFCE 1.3 - -1.6 -Oxford Economics 1.5 1.7 -0.2 2.1Raiffeisen Research - - - -Scotiabank - - - -Société Générale 1.4 1.5 -0.4 1.7UBS 1.1 1.5 -0.2 1.3Unicredit - - - -Xerfi 1.8 1.7 -0.5 3.3SummaryMinimum 0.7 1.0 -1.6 0.7Maximum 1.8 1.7 1.1 4.2Median 1.3 1.4 -0.5 1.9Consensus 1.3 1.4 -0.4 2.2History30 days ago 1.1 1.4 -0.3 1.860 days ago 1.1 1.4 -0.2 1.790 days ago 1.0 1.3 -0.4 1.8


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INSEE, Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.6 Private consumption, annual variation in %. 7 Private consumption, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.9 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Sample Report





April 2015


2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0


2015 2016


-20

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

France

G7


-20

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

France

G7


2

3

4

5


2015 2016


Exports and Imports

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Asterès 5.4 - 4.8 -BBVA Research 3.5 5.3 3.0 5.0Berenberg - - - -BNP Paribas - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts 4.5 4.1 3.8 2.3Coe-Rexecode 4.9 4.9 4.0 4.1Commerzbank - - - -Credit Agricole 2.1 3.1 2.9 3.4Credit Suisse - - - -DekaBank - - - -Deutsche Bank 4.3 5.0 4.1 5.4DIW Berlin - - - -DZ Bank 3.5 2.5 3.8 2.2EIU 3.0 2.9 3.1 2.6Frontier Strategy Group 3.2 3.6 2.8 2.8Goldman Sachs - - - -ING - - - -Intesa Sanpaolo 2.5 3.3 2.8 3.5JPMorgan - - - -Julius Baer - - - -Lloyds TSB - - - -Nomura 4.6 2.7 4.0 3.1Nordea - - - -OFCE 2.6 - 1.2 -Oxford Economics 3.4 3.7 2.7 3.0Raiffeisen Research - - - -Scotiabank - - - -Société Générale 4.8 4.2 4.6 4.1UBS 4.4 4.8 3.8 4.0Unicredit - - - -Xerfi 5.8 3.8 5.8 4.1SummaryMinimum 2.1 2.5 1.2 2.2Maximum 5.8 5.3 5.8 5.4Median 3.9 3.7 3.8 3.5Consensus 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.5History30 days ago 3.3 3.6 3.1 3.260 days ago 2.9 3.4 2.8 3.190 days ago 2.9 3.7 2.8 3.5


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INSEE, Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.10 Real exports of goods and services, annual variation in %. 11 Exports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.12 Real imports of goods and services, annual variation in %. 13 Imports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Sample Report





April 2015


9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0


2015 2016


4

6

8

10

12

2000 2005 2010 2015

France

G7


-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

France

G7


0

1

2

3


2015 2016



Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Asterès 0.1 - 10.6 -BBVA Research - - - -Berenberg 0.7 1.9 10.1 10.0BNP Paribas - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts - - 10.1 9.8Coe-Rexecode - - 10.2 10.1Commerzbank - - - -Credit Agricole - - - -Credit Suisse 0.9 2.5 10.2 10.0DekaBank - - - -Deutsche Bank - - 10.3 10.4DIW Berlin - - 10.3 10.1DZ Bank - - - -EIU 1.4 2.5 - -Frontier Strategy Group -0.5 0.5 10.2 10.0Goldman Sachs - - 10.5 10.1ING - - 10.2 9.5Intesa Sanpaolo 1.0 2.4 - -JPMorgan - - - -Julius Baer - - - -Lloyds TSB - - - -Nomura - - 10.4 10.1Nordea - - - -OFCE - - - -Oxford Economics 1.2 2.0 - -Raiffeisen Research - - - -Scotiabank - - - -Société Générale - - - -UBS 0.8 1.5 - -Unicredit - - - -Xerfi - - 10.1 9.7SummaryMinimum -0.5 0.5 10.1 9.5Maximum 1.4 2.5 10.6 10.4Median 0.9 2.0 10.2 10.0Consensus 0.7 1.9 10.3 10.0History30 days ago 0.8 1.9 10.4 10.360 days ago 1.0 1.9 10.3 10.190 days ago 1.1 2.0 10.3 10.1


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INSEE, Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.14 Industrial production, annual variation in %. 15 Industrial production, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months. 16 Unemployment, % of active population. 17 Unemployment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Sample Report





April 2015


90

95

100

105


2015 2016


40

60

80

100

120

2000 2005 2010 2015

France G7


-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2000 2005 2010 2015

France

G7


-5

-4

-3

-2


2015 2016



Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Asterès -4.3 - 97.0 -BBVA Research -4.3 -3.7 - -Berenberg -4.5 -3.6 99.0 100.7BNP Paribas -4.3 -4.0 98.0 99.0Citigroup Global Mkts -3.6 -3.1 97.9 97.9Coe-Rexecode -4.0 -3.7 96.8 98.3Commerzbank - - - -Credit Agricole -4.1 -3.6 97.1 97.7Credit Suisse -4.1 -3.8 95.5 96.0DekaBank -4.3 -4.0 - -Deutsche Bank -4.0 -3.4 98.7 99.1DIW Berlin - - - -DZ Bank -4.3 -4.5 98.3 100.5EIU -4.1 -3.6 98.9 101.2Frontier Strategy Group - - - -Goldman Sachs -4.3 -3.8 98.6 100.0ING -4.2 -3.8 97.5 98.7Intesa Sanpaolo - - - -JPMorgan - - - -Julius Baer - - - -Lloyds TSB - - - -Nomura -4.1 -4.4 97.3 100.1Nordea -4.1 -3.8 97.3 -OFCE -4.3 - 97.4 -Oxford Economics -4.3 -4.0 - -Raiffeisen Research -4.1 -4.1 97.1 98.2Scotiabank - - - -Société Générale -4.1 -4.0 97.7 99.2UBS -4.3 -3.9 97.1 96.9Unicredit -4.2 -4.0 97.9 99.4Xerfi -4.1 -4.4 97.0 98.0SummaryMinimum -4.5 -4.5 95.5 96.0Maximum -3.6 -3.1 99.0 101.2Median -4.2 -3.8 97.5 99.0Consensus -4.2 -3.9 97.6 98.9History30 days ago -4.3 -3.9 98.2 99.860 days ago -4.3 -3.9 98.1 100.090 days ago -4.3 -3.9 98.2 100.0


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from Eurostat. Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.18 General government balance as % of GDP. 19 General government balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months. 20 Public debt as % of GDP.21 Public debt as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Sample Report





April 2015

Monetary Sector | Inflation and 10-Year Bond Yield

0

1

2

3

4


2015 2016

25 | 10-year Bond Yield | evol. of forecasts

0

2

4

6

8

2000 2005 2010 2015

FranceGermanyItaly

24 | 10-year Bond Yield | 2000-2019

-1

0

1

2

3

4

2000 2005 2010 2015

France

G7

22 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | in %

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0


2015 2016

23 | Inflation | evol. of forecasts

Inflation and 10-Year Bond Yield

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Asterès 0.7 - - -BBVA Research 0.1 0.9 - -Berenberg -0.1 0.8 - -BNP Paribas 0.3 1.0 - -Citigroup Global Mkts 0.2 1.5 0.40 -Coe-Rexecode 0.4 1.4 0.50 0.83Commerzbank -0.1 0.7 - -Credit Agricole 0.4 1.0 - -Credit Suisse 0.0 1.0 - -DekaBank 0.3 1.5 - -Deutsche Bank 0.1 1.1 - -DIW Berlin -0.2 1.0 - -DZ Bank -0.3 0.7 - -EIU 0.1 1.0 0.60 0.70Frontier Strategy Group - - - -Goldman Sachs 0.0 0.8 - -ING 0.0 1.4 0.80 -Intesa Sanpaolo 0.3 0.9 - -JPMorgan - - - -Julius Baer 0.6 1.3 - -Lloyds TSB 0.3 1.0 - -Nomura 0.2 0.5 - -Nordea 0.0 1.0 - -OFCE 0.8 - 1.20 -Oxford Economics 0.3 1.0 0.40 0.57Raiffeisen Research 0.2 1.3 0.50 -Scotiabank 0.1 1.1 - -Société Générale 0.2 1.0 0.50 1.00UBS 0.3 1.6 1.20 2.30Unicredit 0.1 1.0 - -Xerfi 0.3 1.0 - -SummaryMinimum -0.3 0.5 0.40 0.57Maximum 0.8 1.6 1.20 2.30Median 0.2 1.0 0.50 0.83Consensus 0.2 1.1 0.68 1.08History30 days ago 0.2 1.0 0.96 1.4560 days ago 0.3 1.0 1.27 1.7190 days ago 0.6 1.1 1.48 1.94

Prices (HICP) 10-Year Bondvariation in % Yield in %

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the Bank of France (BdF, Banque de France), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the National Statistical Institute (INSEE, Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques). See below for details. Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.22 Inflation, annual average variation of harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) in %. Source: INSEE.23 Inflation, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.24 10-year benchmark bond yield (eop). Source: ECB, BdF.25 10-year benchmark bond yield, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Sample Report





April 2015

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

< -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 > 1.0






Individual Forecasts 2015 2016Asterès - -BBVA Research -1.5 -1.5Berenberg -0.6 -0.5BNP Paribas -0.8 -1.0Citigroup Global Mkts -0.3 0.2Coe-Rexecode -0.3 -0.5Commerzbank - -Credit Agricole -1.6 -1.5Credit Suisse -0.8 -0.5DekaBank - -Deutsche Bank -0.5 -0.8DIW Berlin - -DZ Bank -1.8 -1.8EIU -0.8 -0.7Frontier Strategy Group - -Goldman Sachs -0.8 -0.8ING -1.5 -1.1Intesa Sanpaolo -1.1 -1.2JPMorgan - -Julius Baer - -Lloyds TSB - -Nomura - -Nordea -1.3 -1.7OFCE -1.0 -Oxford Economics - -Raiffeisen Research - -Scotiabank -1.4 -1.2Société Générale -0.8 -0.8UBS -1.0 -0.8Unicredit -1.6 -1.5Xerfi -0.8 -0.7SummaryMinimum -1.8 -1.8Maximum -0.3 0.2Median -0.9 -0.8Consensus -1.0 -1.0History30 days ago -1.2 -1.160 days ago -1.3 -1.390 days ago -1.3 -1.2



-3

-2

-1

0

1



-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

2000 2005 2010 2015

France

G7

-3

-2

-1

0

1



-3

-2

-1

0

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from the Bank of France (BdF, Banque de France). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.26 Current account balance as % of GDP.27 4-quarter moving average of current account balance as % of GDP.28 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.29 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.30 Current account balance as % of GDP, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration


Sample Report





April 2015

Fact Sheet

France in the Region


France8.0%

United States49.0%Japan

13.0%

Germany10.8%

United Kingdom

8.3%

Italy6.0%

Canada5.0%

France8.5%

United States42.4%

Japan16.9%

Germany10.8%

United Kingdom

8.6%

Italy8.0%

Canada4.7%

Other EU-27

22.7%

Germany19.5%

Belgium11.3%

Italy7.7%

Asia ex-Japan8.6%

Other30.2%

U.S.A.5.7%

Other EU-27

21.6%

Germany16.7%

Italy7.5%Belgium

7.5%

Asia ex-Japan10.2%

Other30.9%

Other4.1%


Mineral Fuels16.9%

Food8.6%

Other10.3%


Food12.8%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1202005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• Committed to fiscal consolidation • Subdued growth outlook• Moderate household debt • Large public debt• Tourist attractiveness • High structural unemployment

.

• Important exporter of commercial services and merchandise goods

• Loss of competitiveness in exporting sector

Energy (2012)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 5,076Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 10,694Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 533Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 451Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 72.3Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 1,772CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 365

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: Aa1 NegativeS&P: AA NegativeFitch Ratings: AA Stable


Transportation (2013) Airports: 464Railways (km): 29,640Roadways (km): 1,028,446Waterways (km): 8,501Chief Ports: Le Havre, Dunkirk, Marseille

Official name: French RepublicCapital: Paris (10.6m)Other cities: Marseille (2.0 m)

Lyon (1.5m)Area (km2): 643,801Population (million, 2014 est.): 64.0Population density (per km2, 2014): 99Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 0.5Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 81.7Illiteracy rate (%, 2011): < 1.0Language: FrenchMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT+1

President: François HollandeLast elections: 22 April 2012Next elections: June 2017Central Bank Governor: Christian Noyer

Sample Report



FOCUSECONOMICS Germany


April 2015

Germany

REAL SECTOR | Flash PMI rises to eight-month high in MarchMarkit’s composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in March rose to the highest level since July 2014, increasing from February’s 53.8 to 55.3. As a result, the composite PMI—the result of a survey of over 1,000 manufacturing and service businesses based in Germany—moved a bit further above the 50-threshold, where it has remained since April 2013.

March’s improvement reflects increases in both the services and the manufacturing segment. According to Markit, March’s print largely reflects faster growth of output, new orders, new export business and investment. In addition, private sector employment and work outstanding both increased and business expectations at service providers remained positive. In March, input costs rose for the first time in four months, resulting from the weaker euro and the introduction of the national minimum wage in January, and companies increased output charges.

Markit commented on the result, stating that, “[i]t looks like the German economy is entering the economic fast lane again, with survey data suggesting that we should expect another quarter of solid GDP growth.”

Germany ended 2014 on a very strong note. Private consumption was the main anchor of growth in 2014, helped by the significant decline in the global oil price. Data for Q1 are somewhat mixed, but suggest overall that Germany remains on a solid growth track. Industrial production growth moderated and exports shrank in January, but business sentiment and the composite PMI improved again in March and the consumer confidence indicator reached an over-thirteen-year high in April. Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble presented amendments to this year’s budget, the draft 2016 budget and fiscal plans up to 2019 on 18 March. The key policy measure is an increase in public investment—mainly in infrastructure—which amounts to EUR 13.5 billion until 2018, although the government remains committed to its goal of achieving a balanced budget through 2019.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists revised up Germany’s economic outlook for a third straight month on expectations that a strong labor market, lower oil prices and a weak euro will boost growth. The panel expects the economy to expand 1.8% in 2015, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2016, the panel foresees growth of 1.9%.

Inflation stood at 0.3% in March (February: +0.1% year-on-year), recording a second consecutive increase. Panelists see inflation averaging 0.3% in 2015 before rising to 1.6% in 2016.

Outlook improves


Germany

2011-13 2014-16 2017-19Population (million): 80.6 81.0 81.1GDP (EUR bn): 2,754 2,985 3,299GDP per capita (EUR): 34,183 36,832 40,687GDP growth (%): 1.3 1.8 1.6Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -0.2 0.4 0.4Public Debt (% of GDP): 77.8 72.2 67.0Inflation (%): 1.9 0.9 2.0Current Account (% of GDP): 6.5 7.5 6.1

Teresa KerstingEconomist

45

50

55

60




Sample Report





April 2015

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect fixed investment to expand 2.0% in 2015, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, panelists expect fixed investment to grow 3.6%.

The government expects the economy to expand 1.5% in 2015. The Central Bank foresees economic growth of 1.0% for 2015 and of 1.6% for 2016. FocusEconomics Consensus forecast panelists expect economic activity to expand 1.8% in 2015, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel forecasts GDP growth of 1.9%.

REAL SECTOR | Industrial production growth inches down in JanuaryIn January, industrial production grew a seasonally-adjusted 0.6% over the previous month, coming in below December’s 1.0% increase. The reading exceeded market expectations of a 0.5% increase slightly and represented the fifth consecutive expansion. January’s print mainly reflected that increases in the production of capital goods and construction more than compensated for contractions in the production of intermediate and consumer goods.

Compared to the same month of the previous year, industrial production rose 0.9%, which followed December’s 0.5% growth. Nevertheless, the overall trend deteriorated as annual average growth in industrial production edged down from December’s 1.5% to a 12-month low of 1.2% in January.

Forecasters polled by FocusEconomics expect that industrial production will expand 2.0% in 2015, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel sees industrial production increasing 2.4%.

OUTLOOK | Consumer confidence reaches over 13-year high The mood among German consumers improved for a sixth consecutive month. The forward-looking consumer confidence indicator published by the GfK increased from 9.7 points in March to 10.0 points for April, coming in above the 9.8 points that markets had expected. Consumer confidence has not been this high since October 2001. According to GfK, “[t]he tug of war in Europe over the future of Greece is currently having no impact whatsoever on the consumer mood of Germans. Consumers consider the German economy to be on clear upward trend based on a weak euro, which is boosting exports, and lower energy costs.”

In addition to the overall consumer confidence indicator, which estimates consumer confidence in the coming month, the GfK elaborates on three sub-indicators, which refer to the previous month. In March, households’ expectations for the overall economy recorded a fourth consecutive notable increase. GfK pointed out that, “[t]he low interest rate policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) has placed the euro under great pressure of devaluation. This has therefore significantly improved the competitiveness of German exports outside the eurozone. In addition, the effect of exceedingly low energy costs for households and companies is similar to a mini economic stimulus program.” In addition, consumers’ willingness to buy rose for a sixth straight month, reaching the highest level since December 2006, and households’ income expectations recorded a third consecutive improvement.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect private consumption to expand 2.0% in 2015, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2016, panelists see private consumption growing 1.5%.


Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally-adjusted industrial production and annual growth rate in %.Source: Federal Statistical Office and FocusEconomics calculations.

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0




%%

GfK Consumer Climate

Note: GfK Consumer Climate Index.Source: The GfK Group.

4

6

8

10

12

Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15

Sample Report





April 2015

OUTLOOK | Business confidence rises to eight-month high in MarchThe business confidence index, elaborated by the Ifo Institute, advanced from 106.8 in February to 107.9 in March and came in above market expectations of an increase to 107.3. Following the declines recorded between May and October of 2014, the index improved in March for a fifth consecutive month and continued to recover some of the lost ground. Now the index sits at the highest level in eight months.

According to the Institute, March’s print reflects that firms were more positive regarding both their current economic situations and future business development than in the previous month. Business climate rose in the manufacturing, wholesaling and retailing sectors but worsened in construction. Overall, the Ifo Institute commented that the reading suggests that, “[t]he German economy continues to expand.”

MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation rises in MarchConsumer prices in March rose 0.5% over the previous month, according to preliminary data released by the Federal Statistics Office (Destatis) on 30 March. The result followed February’s 1.0% increase.

In annual terms, consumer prices rose 0.3% in March, coming in above February’s mild 0.1% increase, and marking the highest print in four months. Nevertheless, annual average inflation inched down from February’s 0.7% to 0.6% in March, the lowest reading since June 2010.

Meanwhile, harmonized consumer prices rose 0.1% in annual terms, contrasting February’s 0.1% decrease. Annual average HICP inflation moderated from 0.6% in February to 0.5% in March.

The Central Bank expects inflation of 1.1% in 2015, before increasing to 1.8% in 2016. FocusEconomics panelists expect inflation to average 0.3% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month’s forecast. For 2016, panelists expect inflation to increase to 1.6%.

EXTERNAL SECTOR | Trade surplus narrows on shrinking exportsThe seasonally- and calendar-adjusted trade surplus decreased from December’s EUR 21.5 billion record-high to EUR 19.7 billion in January.

The trade surplus in January narrowed over the previous month as exports contracted at a faster pace than imports. Exports shrank a seasonally-adjusted 2.1% over the previous month, contrasting December’s 2.8% increase. Meanwhile, imports fell 0.2% in January, coming in above December’s 0.7% decline.

Compared to the same month last year, exports fell 0.6% (December: +10.0% year-on-year). Imports contracted 2.3% annually in January, contrasting December’s 4.2% rise. The 12-month sum of exports to January grew 3.5% over the same period last year and the trade surplus totaled EUR 220.9 billion, reaching yet another all-time record high.

The Federation of German Wholesale, Foreign Trade and Services (BGA) noted in a recent statement that the print reflects a disappointing start to this year, as rising exports to the U.S. and China did not compensate for lower demand from BRIC countries and economic weakness in the Euro area.

Ifo Business Climate

Note: Ifo Business Climate Index, 2000=100.Source: Ifo Business Survey.

100

105

110

115



Note: Month-on-month and annual consumer price index variation in %.Source: Federal Statistical Office and FocusEconomics calculations.

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0




%%

Merchandise Trade

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in EUR billion and annual variation of the12-month sum of exports and imports in %.Source: Federal Statistical Office and FocusEconomics calculations.

-10

0

10

20

30

150

170

190

210

230

Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15

Trade balance (EUR bn, left scale)Exports (yoy, right scale)Imports (yoy, right scale)

%

Sample Report





April 2015


Annual Data 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Real Sector Population (million) 81.8 80.3 80.5 80.8 80.9 81.1 81.1 81.1 81.1 81.1GDP per capita (EUR) 31,443 33,550 34,170 34,828 35,933 36,646 37,917 39,285 40,682 42,095GDP (EUR bn) 2,570 2,695 2,752 2,814 2,908 2,970 3,075 3,186 3,299 3,412Economic Growth (Nom. GDP, ann. var. in %) 4.7 4.8 2.1 2.3 3.3 2.1 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.4Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 4.1 3.6 0.4 0.1 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.4Domestic Demand (annual variation in %) 3.0 3.0 -0.9 0.7 1.3 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.6Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 0.6 2.3 0.7 0.8 1.2 2.0 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.2Government Consumption (ann. var. in %) 1.3 0.7 1.2 0.7 1.1 - - - - -Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) 5.1 7.3 -0.7 -0.6 3.4 2.0 3.6 3.4 3.0 2.7Exports (G&S, annual variation in %) 14.5 8.0 2.8 1.6 3.9 5.0 5.0 4.4 4.1 4.0Imports (G&S, annual variation in %) 12.9 7.2 0.0 3.1 3.4 5.2 5.6 4.7 4.5 4.7Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 10.2 7.3 -0.4 0.1 1.5 2.0 2.4 1.8 1.5 1.4Retail Sales (annual variation in %) 1.4 1.1 0.1 0.1 1.6 1.6 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.4Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 7.7 7.1 6.8 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.4 6.1 5.9 5.6Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -4.1 -0.9 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4Public Debt (% of GDP) 80.3 77.6 79.0 76.9 74.7 72.2 69.6 68.8 66.7 65.4Monetary and Financial Sector Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) 1.3 2.0 2.0 1.4 0.2 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 1.1 2.1 2.0 1.5 0.9 0.3 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.0Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %, aop) 4.9 3.5 1.4 -0.5 -1.7 - - - - -ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 1.00 1.00 0.75 0.25 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.39 0.76 1.543-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) 1.01 1.36 0.19 0.29 0.08 0.03 0.06 0.62 1.00 1.5710-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 2.89 1.78 1.18 1.94 0.54 0.56 1.04 1.38 1.79 2.27Stock Market (variation of DAX in %) 16.1 -14.7 29.1 25.5 2.7 - - - - -Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.34 1.30 1.32 1.38 1.21 1.04 1.07 1.13 1.17 1.20Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, aop) 1.33 1.39 1.29 1.33 1.33 1.08 1.06 1.10 1.15 1.19External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 5.6 6.1 6.8 6.5 7.6 7.6 7.3 6.3 6.1 6.0Current Account Balance (EUR bn) 145 165 187 182 220 226 223 201 200 203Trade Balance (EUR bn) 152 156 191 197 219 - - - - - Quarterly Data Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 1.2 1.6 1.3 1.6 2.0 2.2 1.8 2.3 1.8 1.7Economic Growth (GDP, s.a. qoq var. in %) 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4Private Consumption (s.a. qoq var. in %) 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3Fixed Investment (s.a. qoq variation in %) -1.2 1.2 1.1 0.7 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3Exports (G&S, s.a. qoq variation in %) 2.0 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6Imports (G&S, s.a. qoq variation in %) 1.3 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 0.6 0.4 1.3 1.9 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.8Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 6.6 6.3 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.3Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.5ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.053-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) 0.08 0.08 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.0610-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 0.90 0.54 0.26 0.39 0.47 0.56 0.77 0.88 1.00 1.04Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.26 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.06 1.07Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 7.7 9.2 7.8 7.6 7.5 7.8 7.3 7.3 7.2 7.5Current Account Balance (EUR bn) 56.2 67.3 56.9 55.7 55.6 59.3 55.4 55.6 55.4 58.3 Monthly Data Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 3.0 -1.7 0.3 1.2 -0.3 0.5 0.9 - - -Industrial Production (s.a. mom var. in %) 1.3 -2.6 1.2 0.4 0.1 1.0 0.6 - - -Retail Sales (annual variation in %) 1.3 -0.9 2.9 2.6 -1.3 5.2 5.0 - - -Unemployment (% of active population) 6.6 6.7 6.5 6.3 6.3 6.4 7.0 6.9 - -GfK Consumer Climate 8.9 8.9 8.6 8.4 8.5 8.7 9.0 9.3 9.7 10.0Ifo Business Climate (2000=100) 108.0 106.5 105.5 103.4 104.6 105.5 106.7 106.8 107.9 -Markit Composite PMI (50-threshold) 55.7 53.7 54.1 53.9 51.7 52.0 53.5 53.8 55.3 -Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.0 0.0 -1.1 1.0 0.5 -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.2 -0.4 0.1 0.3 -Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.34 1.32 1.26 1.25 1.25 1.21 1.13 1.12 - -Exports (s.a. mom variation in %) 3.8 -4.6 4.4 0.2 -1.5 2.8 -2.1 - - -Imports (s.a. mom variation in %) -1.7 -0.8 3.8 -2.1 1.1 -0.7 -0.2 - - -

Sample Report





April 2015


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis, Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.1 GDP, annual variation in %.2 Quarterly GDP (seasonally adjusted), quarter-on-quarter variation in %.3 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

< 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.8 > 2.8


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016Allianz 2.1 1.7BBVA Research 1.4 2.2Berenberg 1.8 2.3Berliner Sparkasse 1.7 1.6BNP Paribas 1.3 2.0Citigroup Global Mkts 1.9 2.1Commerzbank 1.8 1.8Credit Agricole 1.1 1.5Credit Suisse 1.8 2.2DekaBank 2.2 2.0Deutsche Bank 2.0 1.7DIW Berlin 2.2 1.9DZ Bank 1.8 1.6EIU 1.8 1.7Frontier Strategy Group 1.3 1.7Goldman Sachs 1.7 1.9HWWI 1.9 1.7Ifo Institut 1.5 -ING 1.8 2.0Intesa Sanpaolo 1.1 1.9JPMorgan 2.3 3.0Julius Baer 2.0 1.8Kiel Institute 1.8 2.0Lloyds TSB 1.8 2.1Nomura 1.7 1.5Nordea 1.7 1.6Oxford Economics 2.4 2.1Raiffeisen Research 1.6 2.2RWI 2.1 1.9Sal. Oppenheim 1.8 1.6Scotiabank 1.5 1.8UBS 2.1 2.4Unicredit 2.0 2.1SummaryMinimum 1.1 1.5Maximum 2.4 3.0Median 1.8 1.9Consensus 1.8 1.9History30 days ago 1.6 1.860 days ago 1.4 1.890 days ago 1.3 1.8Additional ForecastsCentral Bank (Dec. 2014) 1.0 1.6IMF (Jan. 2015) 1.3 1.5European Comission (Feb. 2015) 1.5 2.0

1 | Real GDP | 2000-2019 | var. in %


2 | Real GDP | Q1 12-Q4 16 | var. in %


-6

-3

0

3

6

2000 2005 2010 2015

GermanyG7World

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

GermanyG7

1

2

3

4



0

1

2

3




Sample Report





April 2015



1

2

3

4

5


2015 2016


-20

-10

0

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

Germany

G7


1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2


2015 2016


-2

0

2

4

2000 2005 2010 2015

Germany

G7


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Allianz 2.7 1.3 - -BBVA Research 1.5 1.8 2.0 4.0Berenberg 2.3 1.8 1.9 5.0Berliner Sparkasse 1.8 1.1 2.7 3.7BNP Paribas 1.1 0.8 0.5 4.3Citigroup Global Mkts 2.4 2.1 1.8 3.0Commerzbank 2.2 1.8 2.4 3.7Credit Agricole 1.5 1.3 - -Credit Suisse 2.3 1.9 1.3 3.4DekaBank 2.4 1.3 2.3 3.8Deutsche Bank 2.3 1.0 2.7 1.7DIW Berlin 2.4 1.4 - -DZ Bank 1.8 1.4 3.0 3.9EIU 1.7 0.9 3.0 3.0Frontier Strategy Group 1.0 1.0 - -Goldman Sachs - - - -HWWI 1.6 1.2 3.0 2.5Ifo Institut 1.7 - 2.0 -ING 1.8 1.3 1.1 2.8Intesa Sanpaolo 1.4 1.4 0.7 3.3JPMorgan - - - -Julius Baer - - - -Kiel Institute 2.7 2.2 2.8 5.7Lloyds TSB - - - -Nomura 1.9 1.2 1.3 2.7Nordea - - - -Oxford Economics 2.7 1.6 1.1 3.7Raiffeisen Research - - - -RWI 2.6 1.7 2.7 3.1Sal. Oppenheim 2.0 1.7 1.5 2.9Scotiabank - - - -UBS 2.1 1.9 3.3 6.3Unicredit - - - -SummaryMinimum 1.0 0.8 0.5 1.7Maximum 2.7 2.2 3.3 6.3Median 2.0 1.4 2.0 3.5Consensus 2.0 1.5 2.0 3.6History30 days ago 1.8 1.4 1.7 3.660 days ago 1.6 1.4 1.6 3.690 days ago 1.5 1.4 1.7 3.7


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis, Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.6 Private consumption, annual variation in %. 7 Private consumption, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.9 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Sample Report





April 2015


4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5


2015 2016


-20

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

Germany

G7


-20

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

Germany

G7


4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0


2015 2016


Exports and Imports

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Allianz 5.5 3.9 5.1 3.6BBVA Research 4.2 5.5 4.9 5.8Berenberg - - - -Berliner Sparkasse 4.7 3.6 5.5 4.9BNP Paribas - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts 3.9 3.4 4.8 4.3Commerzbank 5.9 6.4 6.3 7.3Credit Agricole 5.0 5.9 5.0 6.0Credit Suisse - - - -DekaBank 6.6 8.2 6.6 9.3Deutsche Bank 4.4 5.1 4.5 4.5DIW Berlin - - - -DZ Bank 6.2 5.2 5.9 5.8EIU 3.5 3.7 4.0 3.7Frontier Strategy Group 4.1 3.6 2.0 1.8Goldman Sachs - - - -HWWI 5.4 5.3 5.5 5.7Ifo Institut 5.2 - 5.8 -ING - - - -Intesa Sanpaolo 4.7 4.2 5.4 5.9JPMorgan - - - -Julius Baer - - - -Kiel Institute 5.6 6.3 6.8 8.3Lloyds TSB - - - -Nomura 4.4 3.2 3.8 3.7Nordea - - - -Oxford Economics 5.7 4.9 6.5 6.3Raiffeisen Research - - - -RWI 4.9 5.3 5.3 5.6Sal. Oppenheim 5.1 5.9 4.6 6.9Scotiabank - - - -UBS 4.8 4.8 5.7 6.1Unicredit - - - -SummaryMinimum 3.5 3.2 2.0 1.8Maximum 6.6 8.2 6.8 9.3Median 5.0 5.1 5.3 5.8Consensus 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.6History30 days ago 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.960 days ago 4.6 5.0 5.2 5.990 days ago 4.3 4.8 5.3 5.8


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis, Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.10 Real exports of goods and services, annual variation in %. 11 Exports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.12 Real imports of goods and services, annual variation in %. 13 Imports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Sample Report





April 2015


6.2

6.4

6.6

6.8

7.0


2015 2016


4

6

8

10

12

2000 2005 2010 2015

Germany

G7


-20

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

Germany

G7


1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5


2015 2016



Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Allianz - - 6.4 6.4BBVA Research - - - -Berenberg 2.3 2.4 - -Berliner Sparkasse 2.1 1.8 6.4 6.3BNP Paribas - - 6.7 6.7Citigroup Global Mkts - - - -Commerzbank - - 6.4 6.3Credit Agricole - - - -Credit Suisse 2.6 4.2 - -DekaBank - - 6.5 6.5Deutsche Bank 1.8 1.8 6.5 6.6DIW Berlin - - 6.4 6.1DZ Bank - - 6.5 6.3EIU 1.8 1.8 - -Frontier Strategy Group 1.5 1.8 - -Goldman Sachs - - - -HWWI - - - -Ifo Institut - - 6.6 -ING - - 6.7 6.7Intesa Sanpaolo 1.5 2.0 - -JPMorgan - - - -Julius Baer - - - -Kiel Institute - - 6.4 6.2Lloyds TSB - - - -Nomura - - 6.4 6.1Nordea - - 6.6 6.5Oxford Economics 1.9 2.0 6.6 6.6Raiffeisen Research - - - -RWI - - - -Sal. Oppenheim - - 6.5 6.3Scotiabank - - - -UBS 2.2 3.8 6.5 6.4Unicredit - - - -SummaryMinimum 1.5 1.8 6.4 6.1Maximum 2.6 4.2 6.7 6.7Median 1.9 2.0 6.5 6.4Consensus 2.0 2.4 6.5 6.4History30 days ago 1.8 2.5 6.6 6.560 days ago 1.6 2.2 6.6 6.590 days ago 1.4 2.2 6.7 6.6


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis, Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland) and the Federal Labour Office (BA, Bundesagentur für Arbeit). See below for details. Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.14 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: Destatis.15 Industrial production, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months. 16 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: BA.17 Unemployment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Sample Report





April 2015


68

70

72

74

76

78


2015 2016


50

75

100

125

2000 2005 2010 2015

GermanyG7


-10

-5

0

5

2000 2005 2010 2015

Germany

G7


0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4


2015 2016



Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Allianz 0.7 0.5 - -BBVA Research 0.0 0.0 - -Berenberg 0.3 0.2 72.0 69.4Berliner Sparkasse 0.2 0.3 - -BNP Paribas 0.1 0.0 74.0 71.0Citigroup Global Mkts 0.3 0.2 72.1 69.6Commerzbank - - - -Credit Agricole 0.0 0.0 72.5 70.0Credit Suisse 0.3 0.5 71.9 68.9DekaBank 0.2 0.2 - -Deutsche Bank 0.6 0.7 69.3 65.8DIW Berlin 0.5 0.4 - -DZ Bank 0.2 0.4 72.0 69.5EIU 0.6 0.7 72.9 70.6Frontier Strategy Group - - - -Goldman Sachs - - 73.9 70.8HWWI 0.2 0.3 71.3 69.0Ifo Institut 0.1 - - -ING 0.5 0.5 72.0 68.5Intesa Sanpaolo - - - -JPMorgan - - - -Julius Baer - - - -Kiel Institute 0.3 0.3 70.3 67.0Lloyds TSB - - - -Nomura 0.2 0.4 71.5 68.8Nordea 0.2 0.2 73.6 72.0Oxford Economics 1.0 1.0 74.8 73.8Raiffeisen Research 0.0 0.2 72.4 69.6RWI 0.5 0.5 - -Sal. Oppenheim - - - -Scotiabank - - - -UBS 0.2 0.2 71.5 68.5Unicredit 0.3 0.3 72.2 70.6SummaryMinimum 0.0 0.0 69.3 65.8Maximum 1.0 1.0 74.8 73.8Median 0.3 0.3 72.1 69.6Consensus 0.3 0.3 72.2 69.6History30 days ago 0.2 0.2 72.7 70.460 days ago 0.1 0.2 73.1 70.790 days ago 0.1 0.1 73.5 71.2


Notes and sources


Sample Report





April 2015


0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0


2015 2016


0

2

4

6

8

2000 2005 2010 2015

FranceGermanyItaly

24 | 10-year Bond Yield | 2000-2019

-1

0

1

2

3

4

2000 2005 2010 2015

Germany

G7

22 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | in %

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5


2015 2016



Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Allianz 0.4 1.5 0.50 1.00BBVA Research 0.3 1.1 - -Berenberg 0.3 1.5 - -Berliner Sparkasse 0.2 1.9 - -BNP Paribas 0.3 1.4 - -Citigroup Global Mkts 0.7 2.1 0.20 -Commerzbank 0.5 2.4 0.60 -Credit Agricole 0.5 1.6 1.10 1.70Credit Suisse 0.0 1.3 - -DekaBank 0.4 1.6 0.55 0.90Deutsche Bank 0.0 1.5 0.40 0.50DIW Berlin 0.5 1.2 - -DZ Bank 0.4 1.6 - -EIU - - 0.30 0.50Frontier Strategy Group 0.5 1.0 - -Goldman Sachs 0.3 2.3 - -HWWI 0.8 1.6 - -Ifo Institut 0.8 - - -ING 0.7 1.8 0.60 1.35Intesa Sanpaolo - - - -JPMorgan - - 0.60 -Julius Baer 0.2 1.8 0.60 1.85Kiel Institute 0.1 1.5 0.35 0.73Lloyds TSB 0.1 1.4 - -Nomura 0.5 1.1 0.55 0.75Nordea 0.4 1.7 0.60 1.00Oxford Economics 0.1 1.6 - -Raiffeisen Research 0.0 2.6 0.40 1.00RWI 0.4 1.5 0.30 0.30Sal. Oppenheim 0.4 1.6 - -Scotiabank 0.1 1.2 - -UBS 0.1 1.4 0.90 2.00Unicredit 0.0 1.7 1.00 -SummaryMinimum 0.0 1.0 0.20 0.30Maximum 0.8 2.6 1.10 2.00Median 0.3 1.6 0.55 1.00Consensus 0.3 1.6 0.56 1.04History30 days ago 0.4 1.5 0.78 1.4860 days ago 0.5 1.6 0.99 1.5690 days ago 1.0 1.6 1.24 1.76

Prices (CPI) 10-Year Bondvariation in % Yield in %

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from Federal Statistical Office (Destatis, Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland), the German Central Bank (BBK, Deutsche Bundesbank) and the European Central Bank (ECB). See below for details. Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.22 Inflation, annual average variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %. Source: Destatis.23 Inflation, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.24 10-year benchmark bond yield (eop). Source: BBK, ECB.25 10-year benchmark bond yield, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Sample Report





April 2015

0%

20%

40%

60%

< 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 > 11.0




27 | Curr Account | Q1 12 - Q4 16 | % of GDP


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016Allianz 7.3 6.8BBVA Research 7.2 6.9Berenberg 7.5 6.9Berliner Sparkasse 7.6 7.6BNP Paribas 7.1 6.8Citigroup Global Mkts 7.5 6.0Commerzbank 8.4 8.2Credit Agricole - -Credit Suisse 7.3 7.0DekaBank 7.1 7.1Deutsche Bank 8.3 8.2DIW Berlin 8.4 8.6DZ Bank 7.2 6.5EIU 8.2 8.1Frontier Strategy Group - -Goldman Sachs - -HWWI 7.5 7.1Ifo Institut 7.4 -ING - -Intesa Sanpaolo 8.4 7.6JPMorgan - -Julius Baer - -Kiel Institute 8.2 8.0Lloyds TSB - -Nomura - -Nordea 8.0 7.7Oxford Economics 7.9 7.3Raiffeisen Research 7.0 6.5RWI 8.1 8.1Sal. Oppenheim - -Scotiabank 6.5 6.0UBS 7.5 7.3Unicredit 7.0 6.8SummaryMinimum 6.5 6.0Maximum 8.4 8.6Median 7.5 7.1Consensus 7.6 7.3History30 days ago 7.4 6.960 days ago 7.3 6.890 days ago 7.0 6.5



4

5

6

7

8

9



-2

0

2

4

6

8

2000 2005 2010 2015

Germany

G7

4

5

6

7

8

9



6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from the German Central Bank (BBK, Deutsche Bundesbank). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.26 Current account balance as % of GDP.27 4-quarter moving average of current account balance as % of GDP.28 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.29 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.30 Current account balance as % of GDP, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration


Sample Report





April 2015

Fact Sheet

Germany in the Region


Germany10.9%

United States48.8%

Japan13.0%

United Kingdom

8.3%

France8.0%

Italy6.0%

Canada5.0%

Germany10.8%

United States42.4%

Japan16.9%

United Kingdom

8.6%

France8.5%

Italy8.0%

Canada4.7%

Other EU-27

30.8%

Netherlands14.1%

France7.5%

Belgium6.4%

China6.7%

Other34.5%

U.S.A.6.3%

Other EU-27

31.1%

France10.0%U.K.

7.1%Netherlands

6.9%

Other Asia ex-Japan

5.3%

China5.1%

Other28.1%

Other11.7%


Mineral Fuels14.3%

Food7.5%

Other11.6%


Food5.5%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

0

20

40

60

80

1002005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• Ageing population• Large and powerful labor unions

..

• Persistent backwardness of eastern federal states

• Government debt and deficit below Euro area average• Innovation, research and development• Important role of export-oriented SME's (Mittelstand)

Energy (2012)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 4,804Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 13,466Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 585Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 540Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 163Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 2,389CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 788

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: Aaa StableS&P: AAA StableFitch Ratings: AAA Stable


Transportation (2013) Airports: 539Railways (km): 41,981Roadways (km): 645,000Waterways (km): 7,467Chief Ports: Hamburg, Bremerhaven, Kiel

Official name: Federal Republic of Germany

Capital: Berlin (5.1m)Other cities: Düsseldorf (7.8m)

Frankfurt am Main (3.7m)Area (km2): 357,022Population (million, 2014 est.): 80.9Population density (per km2, 2014): 227Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): -0.2Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 80.2Illiteracy rate (%, 2003): 1.0Language: GermanMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT+1

Chancellor: Angela MerkelLast elections: 22 September 2013Next elections: September 2017Central Bank Governor: Jens Weidmann

Sample Report



FOCUSECONOMICS Italy


April 2015

Italy

REAL SECTOR | Economy posts flat growth in Q4; GDP contracts in full year 2014 In Q4 2014, GDP recorded flat growth over the previous quarter in seasonally- and working-day adjusted terms, according to more detailed data released by the National Statistics Office (ISTAT) on 5 March. The reading matched the preliminary estimate and came in slightly above the 0.1% decrease observed in the third quarter. Q4’s result reflected an improvement both in domestic demand and in exports.

Growth in private consumption inched down from 0.2% in Q3 to 0.1% in Q4, while government consumption ticked up from a 0.2% increase to a 0.4% rise. In addition, fixed investment swung from a 1.0% contraction in Q3 to a mild 0.2% expansion in Q4.

On the external side of the economy, growth in exports accelerated from 0.4% in Q3 to 1.6% in Q4, while imports slowed from a 0.7% rise to a 0.3% increase. As a result, the external sector’s net contribution to overall growth improved from minus 0.1 percentage points in Q3 to plus 0.4 percentage points in Q4.

In annual terms, the economy contracted 0.5% in Q4, which matched Q3’s result but was slightly below the preliminary estimate of a 0.3% decrease. In the full year 2014, the economy contracted 0.4%, which represented an improvement compared to the 1.7% contraction registered in 2013.

According to more detailed data released on 5 March, the Italian economy recorded flat growth in the final quarter of last year, which marks an improvement after several quarters of contractions. A gradual rebound in economic indicators in recent months and a relatively stable political situation suggest that the government is in a good position to start implementing much-needed structural reforms this year. One major change has already been implemented in the banking sector. In an attempt to improve governance and increase the efficiency of the banking system, on 24 March, the parliament approved a reform to convert the country’s ten largest cooperative banks into joint stock companies. The move is expected to speed up board decision making processes and lead to increased mergers, as it puts an end to ownership limits and dismantles the previous voting system of “one-head, one-vote” which used to allow minority shareholders to block unwanted changes.

The Italian economy is expected to expand for the first time in four years in 2015. FocusEconomics panelists expect the Italian economy to expand 0.5% this year, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel sees economic growth picking up to 1.1%.

The decline in consumer prices eased from a record-low 0.6% in January to 0.1% in February. Panelists project an average inflation of 0.1% for this year, while they expect inflation to rise to 0.9% in 2016.

Outlook stable


Italy

2011-13 2014-16 2017-19Population (million): 59.5 60.2 61.0GDP (EUR bn): 1,621 1,633 1,737GDP per capita (EUR): 27,255 27,116 28,487GDP growth (%): -1.3 0.4 1.2Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -3.1 -2.7 -1.5Public Debt (% of GDP): 123 133 127Inflation (%): 2.5 0.4 1.2Current Account (% of GDP): -0.8 2.0 2.0

Cecilia SimkievichEconomist


Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally-adjusted GDP and year-on-year variation in %.Source: National Statistical Institute (Istat) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015



% %

Sample Report





April 2015

Business Confidence

Note: Value of monthly business confidence index.Source: National Statistical Institute (Istat).

70

80

90

100

110


The Bank of Italy expects the economy to expand 0.4% in 2015 and 1.2% in 2016. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy expanding 0.5% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2016, panelists expect the economy to expand 1.1%.

REAL SECTOR | Industrial production contracts in JanuaryIn January, industrial output fell a seasonally-adjusted 0.7% over the previous month, which contrasted the 0.4% increase tallied in December. January’s result marked the lowest reading in four months and undershot market expectations of a 0.2% rise. The result was driven by a significant contraction in manufacturing production, which had posted a mild expansion in December. Conversely, electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning, as well as mining and quarrying, recorded stronger increases in January compared to the previous month.

On an annual basis, industrial output dropped a working-day adjusted 2.2% in January, which contrasted the 0.1% increase observed in the previous month and marked a three-month low. As a result, annual average growth in industrial output declined from minus 0.7% in December to minus 1.0% in January.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect industrial production to expand 0.2% in 2015, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, panelists expect industrial output to expand 1.5%.

OUTLOOK | Business confidence jumps up in MarchThe National Institute of Statistics (Istat) composite business confidence indicator (IESE, Istat Economic Sentiment Indicator), which covers the manufacturing, construction, service and retail sectors, shot up from 97.5 points in February to 103.0 points in March.

March’s increase resulted from an improvement in all of the sectors that comprise the index. Services posted the highest increase, jumping from 100.4 points in February to 108.1 in March. Construction posted the second largest improvement, increasing from 108.5 points in February to 116.0 points in March. Finally, manufacturing output rose from February’s 100.5 points to 103.7 points.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see fixed investment posting flat growth in 2015, which is up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month’s estimate. For 2016, the panel expects fixed investment increasing 1.9%.

OUTLOOK | Consumer confidence improves in March The National Institute of Statistics’ (Istat) consumer confidence index jumped up from 107.7 points in February to 110.9 points in March. The result was in line with market expectations.

March’s strong increase reflected an improvement in all of the subcomponents that comprise the index. Consumers’ expectations regarding the country’s general economic situation improved notably. In addition, households were more upbeat regarding both their current and prospective personal economic situations. Consumer sentiment regarding employment perspectives also improved compared to the previous month, suggesting that the economy is continuing along a good path during the first months of 2015.


Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally-adjusted industrial production and annual growth rate in %.Source: National Statistical Institute (Istat) and FocusEconomics calculations.

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0




%%

Consumer Confidence

Note: Value of monthly consumer confidence index.Source: National Statistical Institute (Istat).

80

90

100

110

120


Sample Report





April 2015

Panelists expect private consumption to expand 0.6% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2016, panelists see private consumption growing 0.8%. MONETARY SECTOR | Fall in consumer prices eases in FebruaryConsumer prices rose 0.4% in February over the previous month, which contrasted the 0.4% drop tallied in January and overshot the 0.1% rise that the markets had expected. According to the National Statistics Institute (Instat), February’s increase mainly reflected higher prices for food and beverages, tobacco, and, to a lesser extent, transportation services. In annual terms, consumer prices dropped 0.1% in February, which was slightly above the flash estimate of a 0.2% drop, and marked a significant improvement compared to the record-low 0.6% fall tallied in January.

Core consumer prices, which exclude more volatile categories such as unprocessed food and energy, increased 0.3% over the previous month in February. The print contrasted the 0.2% decline recorded in January. Annual core inflation rose from January’s 0.3% to 0.6% in February. Finally, annual harmonized consumer prices swung from a 0.5% decline in January to a 0.1% rise in February, which marked the highest reading in three months.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation to average 0.1% in 2015, which is up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month’s projection. For 2016, panelists expect inflation to average 0.9%.


Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month var. of consumer price index in %.Source: National Statistical Institute (Istat).

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

-0.5

-0.3

0.0

0.3

0.5


Month-on-month (left scale)Year-on-year (right scale)

%%

Sample Report





April 2015


Annual Data 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Real Sector Population (million) 59.2 59.4 59.4 59.7 60.0 60.2 60.5 60.7 61.0 61.2GDP per capita (EUR) 27,106 27,615 27,189 26,960 26,964 26,983 27,401 27,884 28,476 29,100GDP (EUR bn) 1,604 1,639 1,615 1,609 1,617 1,625 1,658 1,694 1,736 1,781Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) 2.0 2.2 -1.5 -0.4 0.5 0.5 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.6Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 1.7 0.7 -2.8 -1.7 -0.4 0.5 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3Domestic Demand (annual variation in %) 0.7 -0.7 -4.5 -2.8 -0.6 0.3 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 1.3 0.0 -4.0 -2.8 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1Government Consumption (annual var. in %) 0.6 -1.8 -1.3 -0.3 -1.0 - - - - -Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) -0.6 -1.7 -9.4 -5.8 -3.2 0.0 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.3Exports (G&S, annual variation in %) 11.8 5.2 2.3 0.5 2.7 3.7 4.1 3.5 3.1 3.1Imports (G&S, annual variation in %) 12.4 0.5 -8.1 -2.3 1.8 2.8 3.8 3.4 3.2 3.0Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 6.7 1.2 -6.4 -3.1 -0.7 0.2 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.7Retail Sales (annual variation in %) 0.2 -0.8 -1.7 -2.1 -1.1 - - - - -Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 8.4 8.4 10.6 12.2 12.7 12.8 12.4 11.7 11.5 11.2Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -4.2 -3.5 -3.0 -2.8 -3.0 -2.8 -2.4 -1.7 -1.5 -1.5Public Debt (% of GDP) 115 116 123 129 132 134 133 130 127 125Monetary and Financial Sector Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, eop) 2.1 3.7 2.6 0.7 -0.1 - - - - -Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, aop) 1.6 2.9 3.3 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.3Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %, aop) 3.0 4.8 3.6 -1.1 -1.5 - - - - -ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 1.00 1.00 0.75 0.25 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.39 0.76 1.543-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) 1.01 1.36 0.19 0.29 0.08 0.03 0.06 0.62 1.00 1.57Benchmark BTP 10-Year Yield (%, eop) 4.71 6.74 4.50 4.09 1.88 1.45 2.00 2.28 2.41 2.44Stock Market (var. of FTSE MIB in %) -13.2 -25.2 7.8 16.6 0.2 - - - - -Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.34 1.30 1.32 1.38 1.21 1.04 1.07 1.13 1.17 1.20Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, aop) 1.33 1.39 1.29 1.33 1.33 1.08 1.06 1.10 1.15 1.19External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -3.5 -3.1 -0.4 1.0 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.8Current Account Balance (EUR bn) -55.7 -50.4 -6.9 15.5 29.3 34.2 37.1 35.0 34.5 32.5Trade Balance (EUR bn) -30.0 -25.5 9.9 29.2 42.9 - - - - - Quarterly Data Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) -0.5 -0.5 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2Economic Growth (GDP, s.a. qoq var. in %) -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3Unemployment (% of active population) 12.8 13.0 12.9 12.7 12.7 12.6 12.5 12.4 12.3 12.2Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, aop) -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.053-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) 0.08 0.08 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.06Benchmark BTP 10-Year Yield (%, eop) 2.37 1.88 1.32 1.38 1.43 1.45 1.50 1.64 1.86 2.00Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.26 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.06 1.07 Monthly Data Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 0.3 -1.6 -0.7 -2.7 -3.0 -1.9 0.1 -2.2 - -Industrial Production (s.a. mom var. in %) 0.9 -1.0 0.3 -0.9 0.0 0.3 0.4 -0.7 - -Markit/ADACI Manufacturing PMI (50-threshold) 52.6 51.9 49.8 50.7 49.0 49.0 48.4 49.9 51.9 -Retail Sales (annual variation in %) -2.7 -1.7 -3.0 -0.7 -1.0 -2.0 0.1 1.7 - -Consumer Confidence Index 103.0 102.0 99.7 99.6 99.2 98.2 97.8 101.8 107.7 110.9Economic Sentiment Indicator 95.4 98.0 91.0 90.1 92.8 91.4 93.2 94.7 97.5 103.0Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.1 -0.1 0.2 -0.4 0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.4 0.4 -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.6 -0.1 -Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %) 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.3 -0.1 -0.5 0.1 -Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.37 1.34 1.32 1.26 1.25 1.25 1.21 1.13 1.12 -

Sample Report





April 2015


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (Istat, Istituto Nazionale di Statistica). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.1 GDP, annual variation in %.2 Quarterly GDP (seasonally adjusted), quarter-on-quarter variation in %.3 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in


0%

20%

40%

60%

< -0.4 -0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.7 > 1.7


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016BBVA Research 0.6 1.3Berenberg 0.3 1.1BNP Paribas 0.5 1.0CER 0.9 1.3Citigroup Global Mkts 0.8 1.4Commerzbank 0.1 0.5Confindustria 0.5 1.1Credit Agricole 0.3 1.0Credit Suisse 0.7 1.6DekaBank 0.5 1.2Deutsche Bank 0.6 1.3DIW Berlin 0.0 0.5DZ Bank 0.7 1.3EIU 0.5 0.9Frontier Strategy Group 0.0 0.5Goldman Sachs 0.4 0.9Gruppo MPS 0.4 0.9ING 0.7 1.3Intesa Sanpaolo 0.4 1.0JPMorgan 0.6 1.4Julius Baer 0.4 1.2Lloyds TSB 0.6 1.3Nomura 0.1 0.3Nordea 0.5 1.1Oxford Economics 0.3 1.0Prometeia 0.7 1.4Raiffeisen Research 0.4 1.2ref. 0.7 1.1Scotiabank 0.4 0.9UBS 0.7 1.3Unicredit 0.6 1.2SummaryMinimum 0.0 0.3Maximum 0.9 1.6Median 0.5 1.1Consensus 0.5 1.1History30 days ago 0.5 1.160 days ago 0.4 1.090 days ago 0.4 0.9Additional ForecastsEuropean Commission (Feb. 2015) 0.6 1.3IMF (Jan. 2015) 0.4 0.8Central Bank (Jan. 2015) 0.4 1.2

1 | Real GDP | 2000-2019 | var. in %


2 | Real GDP | Q1 12-Q4 16 | var. in %


-6

-3

0

3

6

2000 2005 2010 2015

Italy

G7

World-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

Italy G7

-1

0

1

2



-1

0

1

2




Sample Report





April 2015



-1

0

1

2

3


2015 2016


-20

-10

0

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

Italy G7


0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0


2015 2016


-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

2000 2005 2010 2015

Italy G7


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016BBVA Research 0.5 0.8 -0.5 2.7Berenberg 0.5 0.7 -0.3 1.3BNP Paribas 0.5 0.6 -0.1 1.8CER 0.7 0.6 1.1 1.8Citigroup Global Mkts 1.1 0.9 0.5 2.5Commerzbank - - - -Confindustria 0.5 0.8 -0.1 1.9Credit Agricole 0.7 1.2 -0.6 2.8Credit Suisse 0.8 1.0 -0.1 2.9DekaBank - - - -Deutsche Bank 0.5 0.6 0.1 3.1DIW Berlin - - - -DZ Bank 0.8 1.2 0.2 1.2EIU 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.9Frontier Strategy Group 0.0 0.6 - -Goldman Sachs - - - -Gruppo MPS 0.6 0.6 0.4 1.7ING 0.5 0.7 -0.1 1.6Intesa Sanpaolo 0.8 1.1 -0.3 2.0JPMorgan - - - -Julius Baer - - - -Lloyds TSB - - - -Nomura 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.8Nordea - - - -Oxford Economics 0.5 0.7 -0.2 1.6Prometeia 1.1 0.8 -0.4 2.8Raiffeisen Research - - - -ref. 0.5 0.4 -0.2 1.8Scotiabank - - - -UBS 0.8 0.9 0.0 1.1Unicredit - - - -SummaryMinimum 0.0 0.4 -0.6 0.8Maximum 1.1 1.2 1.1 3.1Median 0.6 0.7 -0.1 1.8Consensus 0.6 0.8 0.0 1.9History30 days ago 0.6 0.8 -0.1 1.960 days ago 0.6 0.8 -0.2 1.690 days ago 0.5 0.7 -0.2 1.8


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (Istat, Istituto Nazionale di Statistica). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.6 Private consumption, annual variation in %. 7 Private consumption, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.9 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Sample Report





April 2015


2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0


2015 2016


-20

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

Italy G7


-20

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

Italy G7


2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5


2015 2016


Exports and Imports

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016BBVA Research 4.0 4.9 2.5 4.0Berenberg - - - -BNP Paribas - - - -CER 3.9 3.8 2.2 3.4Citigroup Global Mkts 4.2 4.3 2.9 3.3Commerzbank - - - -Confindustria 3.5 4.0 3.2 4.0Credit Agricole 2.9 4.2 3.5 5.0Credit Suisse - - - -DekaBank - - - -Deutsche Bank 4.7 5.7 3.7 5.2DIW Berlin - - - -DZ Bank 4.2 3.9 2.8 3.6EIU 3.0 3.2 2.5 2.9Frontier Strategy Group 2.7 3.0 1.3 2.0Goldman Sachs - - - -Gruppo MPS 2.5 3.6 2.4 3.2ING - - - -Intesa Sanpaolo 3.3 4.2 2.5 4.4JPMorgan - - - -Julius Baer - - - -Lloyds TSB - - - -Nomura 4.1 3.8 3.1 4.3Nordea - - - -Oxford Economics 3.9 4.0 2.8 3.9Prometeia 4.9 4.6 4.5 4.8Raiffeisen Research - - - -ref. 4.0 4.0 3.3 3.5Scotiabank - - - -UBS 3.8 4.3 2.0 3.1Unicredit - - - -SummaryMinimum 2.5 3.0 1.3 2.0Maximum 4.9 5.7 4.5 5.2Median 3.9 4.0 2.8 3.8Consensus 3.7 4.1 2.8 3.8History30 days ago 3.3 3.9 2.8 3.760 days ago 3.0 3.7 2.9 3.590 days ago 2.8 3.5 2.6 3.5


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (Istat, Istituto Nazionale di Statistica). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.10 Real exports of goods and services, annual variation in %. 11 Exports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.12 Real imports of goods and services, annual variation in %. 13 Imports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Sample Report





April 2015


11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

13.0


2015 2016


3

6

9

12

15

2000 2005 2010 2015

Italy G7


-20

-10

0

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

Italy G7


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5


2015 2016



Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016BBVA Research - - - -Berenberg -0.4 1.6 12.4 12.0BNP Paribas - - 12.9 12.7CER - - 12.3 11.9Citigroup Global Mkts - - 12.7 12.5Commerzbank - - - -Confindustria - - 12.9 12.6Credit Agricole - - 12.6 -Credit Suisse 0.6 1.8 - -DekaBank - - - -Deutsche Bank -0.9 1.5 13.1 12.9DIW Berlin - - 13.2 12.6DZ Bank - - - -EIU 0.5 1.3 13.3 12.6Frontier Strategy Group -0.1 0.7 12.6 12.2Goldman Sachs - - 12.2 11.7Gruppo MPS - - 12.7 12.5ING - - 12.6 11.9Intesa Sanpaolo 0.0 1.2 13.1 12.5JPMorgan - - - -Julius Baer - - - -Lloyds TSB - - - -Nomura - - 13.0 12.5Nordea - - - -Oxford Economics 0.8 1.9 12.7 12.4Prometeia 1.3 2.7 - -Raiffeisen Research - - - -ref. - - 12.8 12.7Scotiabank - - - -UBS -0.2 0.9 13.0 12.9Unicredit - - - -SummaryMinimum -0.9 0.7 12.2 11.7Maximum 1.3 2.7 13.3 12.9Median 0.0 1.5 12.8 12.5Consensus 0.2 1.5 12.8 12.4History30 days ago 0.1 1.5 12.8 12.560 days ago 0.1 1.2 12.8 12.590 days ago 0.3 1.4 12.7 12.5


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (Istat, Istituto Nazionale di Statistica). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.14 Industrial production, annual variation in %. 15 Industrial production, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months. 16 Unemployment, % of active population.17 Unemployment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Sample Report





April 2015


131

132

133

134

135

136


2015 2016


50

75

100

125

150

2000 2005 2010 2015

Italy G7


-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2000 2005 2010 2015

Italy G7


-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5


2015 2016



Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016BBVA Research -2.7 -2.4 - -Berenberg -2.7 -2.2 131.0 129.0BNP Paribas -2.9 -2.6 134.0 133.0CER -2.5 -1.3 133.2 131.4Citigroup Global Mkts -2.9 -2.0 - -Commerzbank - - - -Confindustria -2.7 -2.5 133.8 133.7Credit Agricole -3.0 -3.0 134.3 134.2Credit Suisse -2.7 -2.3 133.0 132.0DekaBank -2.8 -2.4 - -Deutsche Bank -2.7 -2.2 133.4 132.3DIW Berlin - - - -DZ Bank -2.7 -2.2 133.0 131.9EIU -3.0 -2.4 136.4 134.9Frontier Strategy Group - - - -Goldman Sachs -2.8 -2.2 - -Gruppo MPS -2.8 - 133.5 -ING -2.7 -2.3 133.2 132.3Intesa Sanpaolo -2.9 -2.7 135.8 134.6JPMorgan - - - -Julius Baer - - - -Lloyds TSB - - - -Nomura -2.8 -3.0 134.0 136.3Nordea -2.6 -2.0 - -Oxford Economics -2.8 -2.4 132.7 132.2Prometeia -2.9 -2.7 133.8 132.9Raiffeisen Research -2.6 -2.0 133.0 131.9ref. -2.9 -2.8 133.2 134.2Scotiabank - - - -UBS -3.0 -3.0 133.5 134.0Unicredit -2.6 -1.8 133.9 133.0SummaryMinimum -3.0 -3.0 131.0 129.0Maximum -2.5 -1.3 136.4 136.3Median -2.8 -2.4 133.5 133.0Consensus -2.8 -2.4 133.6 133.0History30 days ago -2.8 -2.4 133.8 133.460 days ago -2.8 -2.4 133.6 133.590 days ago -2.8 -2.5 133.7 133.7


Notes and sources


Sample Report





April 2015


1

2

3

4

5


2015 2016


0

2

4

6

8

2000 2005 2010 2015

ItalyGermanyFrance

24 | 10-year Bond Yield | 2000-2019

-1

0

1

2

3

4

2000 2005 2010 2015

Italy G7

22 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | in %

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0


2015 2016



Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016BBVA Research -0.2 0.6 - -Berenberg 0.2 1.0 - -BNP Paribas 0.0 0.7 - -CER 0.0 1.6 1.54 1.53Citigroup Global Mkts 0.2 1.0 0.95 1.06Commerzbank -0.4 0.7 - -Confindustria 0.2 0.6 - -Credit Agricole 0.4 1.0 - -Credit Suisse 0.0 0.7 - -DekaBank 0.6 1.2 - -Deutsche Bank 0.1 1.1 - -DIW Berlin 0.5 1.0 - -DZ Bank -0.6 0.4 - -EIU -0.5 0.4 - -Frontier Strategy Group - - - -Goldman Sachs 0.1 0.3 - -Gruppo MPS 0.1 1.1 1.30 1.80ING 0.1 1.1 1.35 2.10Intesa Sanpaolo 0.3 1.2 2.03 3.19JPMorgan - - - -Julius Baer 0.4 1.4 - -Lloyds TSB -0.3 0.6 - -Nomura 0.2 0.5 - -Nordea 0.1 1.1 - -Oxford Economics -0.4 0.6 1.31 1.46Prometeia -0.2 1.2 1.18 1.42Raiffeisen Research 0.0 1.1 1.10 -ref. 0.0 0.7 - -Scotiabank 0.0 0.8 - -UBS 0.6 1.6 2.30 3.40Unicredit -0.1 1.0 - -SummaryMinimum -0.6 0.3 0.95 1.06Maximum 0.6 1.6 2.30 3.40Median 0.1 1.0 1.31 1.66Consensus 0.1 0.9 1.45 2.00History30 days ago 0.0 0.9 1.60 2.1560 days ago 0.0 0.8 2.03 2.5890 days ago 0.4 0.9 2.42 2.99

Prices (HICP) 10-Year Bondvariation in % Yield in %

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from National Statistical Institute (Istat, Istituto Nazionale di Statistica), Bank of Italy (BdI) and the European Central Bank (ECB). See below for details. Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.22 Inflation, annual average variation of harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) in %. Source: Istat.23 Inflation, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.24 10-year benchmark bond yield (eop). Source: BdI, ECB.25 10-year benchmark bond yield, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Sample Report





April 2015

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

< 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.8 2.3 2.8 3.3 3.8 > 3.8






Individual Forecasts 2015 2016BBVA Research 1.3 1.9Berenberg 2.1 2.5BNP Paribas 2.0 2.1CER 3.3 3.5Citigroup Global Mkts 1.9 2.0Commerzbank - -Confindustria 2.6 2.9Credit Agricole - -Credit Suisse 2.6 2.6DekaBank 1.8 1.8Deutsche Bank 2.5 2.7DIW Berlin - -DZ Bank 1.3 1.6EIU 1.4 1.2Frontier Strategy Group - -Goldman Sachs 1.9 2.1Gruppo MPS 1.7 -ING - -Intesa Sanpaolo 2.1 2.5JPMorgan - -Julius Baer - -Lloyds TSB - -Nomura - -Nordea 2.6 2.6Oxford Economics 2.4 2.1Prometeia 2.7 2.5Raiffeisen Research 2.2 2.1ref. - -Scotiabank 1.5 1.5UBS - -Unicredit 2.2 2.3SummaryMinimum 1.3 1.2Maximum 3.3 3.5Median 2.1 2.1Consensus 2.1 2.2History30 days ago 2.0 2.160 days ago 1.7 1.990 days ago 1.6 1.7



-1

0

1

2

3

4



-6

-3

0

3

2000 2005 2010 2015

Italy G7

-1

0

1

2

3

4



-4

-2

0

2

4

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from the Bank of Italy (BdI). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.26 Current account balance as % of GDP.27 4-quarter moving average of current account balance as % of GDP.28 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.29 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.30 Current account balance as % of GDP, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration


Sample Report





April 2015

Fact Sheet

Italy in the Region


Italy6.0%

United States48.8%

Japan13.0%

Germany10.9%

United Kingdom

8.3%

France8.0%

Canada5.0%

Italy8.0%

United States42.4%

Japan16.9%

Germany10.8%

United Kingdom

8.6%

France8.5%

Canada4.7%

Other EU-27

26.8%

Germany15.6%

France9.0%Netherlands

5.8%

China7.0%

Other35.8%

U.S.A.6.6%

Switzerland5.8%

Other EU-27

31.1%

Germany12.8%

France11.3%

Asia ex-Japan7.9%

Other24.4%

Other8.2%


Mineral Fuels18.8%

Food9.6%

Other9.5%


Food7.9%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1202005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• Low household indebtness• Tourist attractiveness

• Large public debt

x

• Relevance of Italian brands in highly profitable product niches

• Strong shadow and criminal economy

• Persistent divergence between North and South

Energy (2012)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 1,414Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 7,174Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 281Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 303Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 155Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 1,370CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 386

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: Baa2 StableS&P: BBB- StableFitch Ratings: BBB+ Stable


Transportation (2013) Airports: 129Railways (km): 20,255Roadways (km): 487,700Waterways (km): 2,400Chief Ports: Genoa, Gioia Tauro, La Spezia

Official name: Italian RepublicCapital: Rome (4.2m)Other cities: Milan (8.1m)

Naples (3.1m)Area (km2): 301,340Population (million, 2014 est.): 60.0Population density (per km2, 2014): 199Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 0.3Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 82.0Illiteracy rate (%, 2011): 1.0Language: ItalianMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT+1

Prime Minister: Matteo RenziLast elections: 24-25 February 2013Next elections: 2018Central Bank Governor: Ignazio Visco

Sample Report



FOCUSECONOMICS


April 2015

Notes and Statements

PUBLICATION NOTE

Consensus forecasts are mean averages of projections of economic forecasters surveyed by FocusEconomics for our monthly publication. Quarterly averages may not correspond to the annual figures due to different forecast panels.

The GDP-weighted averages for the world refer to economies surveyed by FocusEconomics on a monthly basis, and include the following countries and regions, comprising more than 90% of total global output:

G7 (Group of Seven, 7 countries): Canada, Japan, United Kingdom and United States; France, Germany and Italy are also Euro area countries.Euro area (18 countries): Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain.Nordic Economies (5 countries): Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Iceland. Finland is also a Euro area member.Eastern Europe (14 countries): Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine; Estonia, Latvia, Slovakia and Slovenia are also Euro area members.MENA (Middle East and North Africa, 16 countries): Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates and Yemen.Asia-Pacific (17 countries): Australia, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam.Latin America (23 countries): Argentina, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Puero Rico, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay and Venezuela.Additional Countries: Switzerland and South Africa.

Weights are based on market exchange rates and reflect the latest forecasts on GDP growth, inflation and exchange rates.

BRIC (4 countries): Brazil, Russia, India, and China. The term was coined by Goldman Sachs in November 2001 and has since been widely adopted in investment and finance.

COPYRIGHT NOTE

© Copyright 2015 FocusEconomics S.L. Duplication, reproduction, transmission, publication or redistribution in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, or otherwise without prior written consent of FocusEconomics S.L. is strictly prohibited. Please cite source when quoting. All rights reserved under International Copyright Conventions.

The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast – Major Economies is a monthly publication of FocusEconomics. Communications to the Editor or FocusEconomics in general should be addressed as follows:

FocusEconomics S.L.Gran Via 657E-08010 BarcelonaSpaintel: +34 932 651 040fax: +34 932 650 804e-mail: [email protected] web: http://www.focus-economics.com

DISCLOSURE STATEMENT

The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast – Major Economies (“Forecast”) is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable. FocusEconomics and the participating panelists (“Information Providers”) do not guarantee that the information supplied in the Forecast is accurate, complete or timely. The Information Providers do not make any warranties with regard to the results obtained from the Forecast. The Information Providers are not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for any injuries or damages resulting from the use of this information, including incidental and consequential damages. Recipients should not regard the Forecast as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgement. The recommendations made in the Forecast may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. The Forecast has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation of any transaction or an offer to enter into any transaction. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice and the Information Providers are under no obligation to update the information contained herein.

Notes

Sample Report



ASIA PACIFIC |

CENTRAL AMERICA |& CARIBBEAN |

EASTERN EUROPE|

EURO AREA |

LATIN AMERICA|

MAJOR ECONOMIES |

MIDDLE EAST| & NORTH AFRICA|

NORDIC ECONOMIES|

Brunei, China, Cambodia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam, Australia & New Zealand

Belize, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico and Trinidad & Tobago

Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey & Ukraine

Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia & Spain

Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay & Venezuela

G7 countries (United States, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, France, Eurozone, Germany & Italy); BRIC overview (Brazil, Russia, India & China); Switzerland

Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, Yemen; South Africa

Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast reports cover economic forecasts for over 1,600 unique indicators in 95 countries. Every monthly report includes the Consensus Forecast for each indicator covered. The Consensus Forecast, based on an average of the forecasts provided by the most reputable economic research authorities in the world, is the one number you can rely on to make important business decisions.

REGIONS & COUNTRIES COVERED

WHY CHOOSE FOCUSECONOMICSInstantly diversify your intelligence portfolio with dozens of forecasts.

Get just the information you need, all in one place.

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ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENTS

REAL SECTOR GDP per capita Economic Growth Consumption Investment Industrial Production Unemployment Rate Fiscal Balance Public Debt

EXTERNAL SECTORCurrent Account Trade BalanceExportsImportsInternational ReservesExternal Debt

MONETARY & FINANCIAL SECTORMoneyInflation Rate Policy Interest Rate Exchange Rate

FocusEconomics | Gran Via 657, 08010, Barcelona, Spain | +34 932 651 040 | [email protected] | www.focus-economics.com

INDICATORS INCLUDED

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