CONSENSUS FORECAST - FocusEconomics · 2017-11-06 · outside the Eurozone. FocusEconomics...

CONSENSUS FORECAST

SUMMARY 2CALENDAR 15EURO AREA 17GERMANY 32FRANCE 44ITALY 57SPAIN 69AUSTRIA 80BELGIUM 88ESTONIA 96FINLAND 103GREECE 111IRELAND 120LATVIA 129LITHUANIA 135NETHERLANDS 141PORTUGAL 149SLOVAKIA 157SLOVENIA 163CYPRUS 169LUXEMBOURG 172MALTA 175NOTES 178

Contributors

PUBLICATION DATE 31 March 2015FORECASTS COLLECTED 24 March - 30 March 2015

INFORMATION AVAILABLE Up to and including 30 March 2015 NEXT EDITION 5 May 2015

Euro area • April 2015

ARNE POHLMAN Chief EconomistARMANDO CICCARELLI Head of ResearchRICARDO ACEVES Senior EconomistRICARD TORNÉ Senior EconomistOLGA COSCODAN Economist

CARL KELLY EconomistTERESA KERSTING EconomistDIRINA MANÇELLARI EconomistANGELA BOUZANIS EconomistCECILIA SIMKIEVICH Economist

ROBERT HILL Economist ERIC DENIS Economist MIRIAM DOWD Editor

FOCUSECONOMICS Summary

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 2

April 2015

SummaryREAL SECTOR | Greece submits list of reforms, agreement with European leaders pending Greece’s relationship with the rest of the Eurozone deteriorated in recent days at a time when the country is running out of cash. On 27 March, Greece submitted a list of reforms, which the Eurogroup is expected to evaluate this week. Although the Greek government conceded to retain an unpopular property tax in the plan and to increase the value-added tax for Greek islands, the list failed to include reforms to labor laws and the pension system. It remains to be seen whether an agreement regarding the set of reforms will be sufficient for Athens to unlock much-needed external financing, or whether the Greek government will have to implement further reforms and push legislation through parliament. If European leaders merely seeing the set of reforms provided by the Greek government proves to be sufficient, this would represent a major concession for Greece. Conversely, if detailed reforms are not agreed upon soon, the political stalemate will be prolonged, capital controls are likely to be imposed in Greece, and the Greek government will go into arrears on its obligations to the IMF and the ECB in the coming months. Under this scenario, Greece would likely enter back into recession and the primary budget would return to deficit, which would put pressure on the SYRIZA-led government to shift its economic policy.

Against this backdrop of uncertainty, Greek households and businesses pulled EUR 7.6 billion out of their bank accounts in February, driving deposit levels down to EUR 140.5 billion (February 2014: EUR 160.5 billion), which is the lowest level since March 2005. Although the withdrawals were smaller to those in January (EUR 12.2 billion), the nearly EUR 20 billion extracted from bank accounts in the first two months of the year reflects the serious risk that Greece could reach a full-scale bank run before the Greek government comes to an agreement with Eurozone leaders to extend its EUR 240 billion bailout to June.

Despite the headwinds that Greece’s latest cash crisis has caused, more signs have emerged that the Eurozone economy is strengthening. Detailed data show that the region’s GDP improved in the fourth quarter of 2014. Although the improvement in Q4 was marginal relative to the growth rate registered in the previous quarter, recent data provide further evidence that the bloc’s economy is gaining momentum at the outset of 2015. The composite PMI—a closely-watched leading indicator—rose to the highest level in nearly four years in March and confidence regarding improving economic prospects in the Eurozone

Regional outlook improves

-2

-1

0

1

2

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 160.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb

2015 2016

Euro AreaEconomic Growth Change in GDP forecasts

Note: GDP, real annual variation in %, Q1 2012 - Q4 2016.

Note: GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.



April 2015

strengthened further in the same month. Moreover, the recent slide of the euro should provide support for European export-oriented manufacturers, while borrowers will benefit from the ECB’s ultra-loose monetary policy.

OUTLOOK | Outlook improves on start of QE program and more upbeat economic dataThe European Central Bank (ECB) began its bond-buying program—also known as quantitative easing (QE)—in the secondary market on 9 March. The program that the ECB launched on 22 January is expected to revive the Euro area economy and lift inflation. Although analysts remain cautious regarding whether the QE program will effectively fuel economic growth in the common currency area, the current slide of the euro against the U.S. dollar, lower oil prices and easing fiscal austerity will support growth in the Eurozone.

The FocusEconomics panel is becoming more optimistic regarding the outlook for the Eurozone economy. Analysts polled this month raised their 2015 GDP growth forecasts again, this time by 0.1 percentage points over the previous month, and they now see the regional economy expanding 1.3%. April’s result mainly reflects rising optimism regarding the ECB QE program as well as an improvement in recent economic data. At a country level, the improving economic outlook for the region reflects upward revisions for 6 of the 19 economies surveyed, including key players such as France, Germany, and Spain. The forecasts for 7 economies were left unchanged, while projections for the remaining 6 economies were cut. Forecasters also raised their 2016 regional GDP growth forecast this month to 1.7% from the 1.6% that was expected last month.

Cyprus and Finland are expected to be the weakest links in 2015, with a projected expansion of 0.3% and 0.5%, respectively. At the other end of the range, Ireland is expected to be the strongest performer with 3.6% growth, followed by Malta with a 2.8% increase. Looking at the region’s major economies, Spain continues to outperform its European peers with an expected GDP growth of 2.3%, followed by Europe’s powerhouse Germany with a 1.8% expansion. Meanwhile, panelists raised France’s growth prospects in April to 1.0%, while Italy’s projection was left unchanged at last month’s 0.5%.

GREECE | Government presents list of reforms, but the country’s future is still uncertain The Greek economy grew in 2014 for the first time in six years, largely on the back of a recovery in private consumption and the external sector. However, Greece’s future is shrouded in uncertainty. The country is at the brink of bankruptcy and desperately needs additional financing from its European lenders. On 27 March, Prime Minister Alexis Tspiras presented Greece’s newest reform plan, which includes previously-discussed measures to reduce corruption and tax evasion. Tsipras also conceded to retain an unpopular property tax and increase the value added tax for Greek islands, although the proposal did not touch on reforms to the pension system or labor laws. Further discussions with troika

-8

-4

0

4

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 162

3

4

5


2015 2016

GreeceEconomic Growth Change in GDP forecasts



Change in GDP Growth Forecasts20162015

-0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3

Austria

Finland

Ireland

Italy

Belgium

Euro area

France

Netherlands

Spain

Germany

-0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3

Austria

France

Italy

Belgium

Euro area

Netherlands

Germany

Finland

Ireland

Spain

Note: Change between April 2015 and March 2015 in percentage points..

.Source: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.



April 2015

representatives are slated for this week, but at this point it is unlikely the latest plan will be enough to cement a deal and allow Greece to receive bailout extension funding.

Looking forward, Greece’s outlook is deteriorating rapidly. The government’s funding gap is weighing heavily on the forecast and political tensions are rising in the country. Further, large downside risks of another election or even a ”grexit” from the Eurozone still loom. FocusEconomics Consensus panelists expect the economy to expand 0.9% in 2015, which is down 0.7 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel sees the economy growing 2.3%. (see details on page 111)

GERMANY | Economic activity remains strong at the outset of the year, prospects are bright Germany ended 2014 on a very strong note. Private consumption was the main anchor of growth in 2014, helped by the significant decline in the global oil price. Data for Q1 are somewhat mixed, but suggest overall that Germany remains on a solid growth track. Industrial production growth moderated and exports shrank in January, but business sentiment and the composite PMI improved again in March and the consumer confidence indicator reached an over-thirteen-year high in April. Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble presented amendments to this year’s budget, the draft 2016 budget and fiscal plans up to 2019 on 18 March. The key policy measure is an increase in public investment—mainly in infrastructure—which amounts to EUR 13.5 billion until 2018, although the government remains committed to its goal of achieving a balanced budget through 2019.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists revised up Germany’s economic outlook for a third straight month on expectations that a strong labor market, lower oil prices and a weak euro will boost growth. The panel expects the economy to expand 1.8% in 2015, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2016, the panel foresees growth of 1.9%. (see details on page 32)

FRANCE | Recent data signal improving economic conditions; Sarkozy’s UMP scores key result in local elections Following the anemic growth recorded in the final quarter of 2014, recent economic indicators signal that the economy is gradually shifting into higher gear. Industrial production expanded for a second consecutive month in January and the March Composite PMI suggests that French business activity is expanding. In addition, March sentiment surveys showed that businesses and consumers are perceiving a mild economic recovery. On the political front, the right-wing National Front (FN) made limited gains in the second-round local elections held on 29 March. Conversely, former president Nicolas Sarkozy’s Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) and its allies scored a key victory, garnering over two-thirds of the 101 departments. Although voter turnout was low, the election result represents the current electoral mood as the popularity of the Socialist Party, and particularly that of President François Hollande, is at a record low.

-1

0

1

2

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 160.5

1.0

1.5

2.0


2015 2016

FranceEconomic Growth Change in GDP forecasts



-2

0

2

4

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 161.0

1.5

2.0

2.5


2015 2016

GermanyEconomic Growth Change in GDP forecasts





April 2015

The French economy is going to benefit from a stimulatory monetary policy, low oil prices and a less restrictive fiscal policy. In addition, the weaker euro is likely to boost exports to countries outside the Eurozone. FocusEconomics panelists raised their growth forecasts by 0.1 percentage points over the previous month and now expect the French economy to expand 1.0% in 2015. For 2016, panelists expect economic growth to accelerate to 1.4%. (see details on page 44)

ITALY | Improving economic situation and stable political conditions support implementation of reform agendaAccording to more detailed data released on 5 March, the Italian economy recorded flat growth in the final quarter of last year, which marks an improvement after several quarters of contractions. A gradual rebound in economic indicators in recent months and a relatively stable political situation suggest that the government is in a good position to start implementing much-needed structural reforms this year. One major change has already been implemented in the banking sector. In an attempt to improve governance and increase the efficiency of the banking system, on 24 March, the parliament approved a reform to convert the country’s ten largest cooperative banks into joint stock companies. The move is expected to speed up board decision making processes and lead to increased mergers, as it puts an end to ownership limits and dismantles the previous voting system of “one-head, one-vote” which used to allow minority shareholders to block unwanted changes.

The Italian economy is expected to expand for the first time in four years in 2015. FocusEconomics panelists expect the Italian economy to expand 0.5% this year, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel sees economic growth picking up to 1.1%. (see details on page 57)

SPAIN | Domestic demand fuels economic recovery in 2014, but risks to the outlook persistThe Spanish economy expanded for the first time in five years last year, driven mainly by a recovery in domestic demand. Renewed consumer confidence and an improving labor market are expected to carry 2014’s momentum into this year. In addition, low energy prices should boost private consumption and the country’s current account. However, some risks to Spain’s outlook still remain. The country is facing multiple elections in 2015, and general elections are due before year-end. On 22 March, the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE), led by Susana Díaz, was re-elected in Andalucía’s regional vote. While the outcome was rather unsurprising, the result signaled a potential change in Spain’s political landscape as the traditionally-dominant PSOE and the People’s Party (PP) lost 18% of the vote to emerging parties.

Growth prospects for the Spanish economy continue to improve. FocusEconomics panelists raised their forecast for the third month in a row and see GDP expanding 2.3% in 2015, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel sees the economy also growing 2.3%. (see details on page 69)

-3.0

-1.5

0.0

1.5

3.0

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 161.0

1.5

2.0

2.5


2015 2016

SpainEconomic Growth Change in GDP forecasts



-4

-2

0

2

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 160.0

0.5

1.0

1.5


2015 2016

ItalyEconomic Growth Change in GDP forecasts





April 2015

INFLATION | February records third consecutive month with inflation in negative territory, QE aimed at lifting inflation going forwardMore complete data confirmed that inflation in the Eurozone remained in negative territory in February. Harmonized consumer prices declined 0.3% over the same month last year, which followed the 0.6% decrease registered in January. The result sparked fears that the Eurozone could fall into a sustained period of declining prices. Nonetheless, the ECB’s QE program is designed to inject EUR 1.0 trillion to the financial system to increase lending, support economic growth and lift inflation going forward.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists left their 2015 inflation forecasts unchanged over the previous month and project zero inflation. For 2016, inflation is expected to increase and average 1.2%.

Ricardo AcevesSenior Economist



April 2015

GDP, yoy var. in %

-4

-2

0

2

4

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

Euro area France Germany

Italy Netherlands Spain

Quarterly Data | Economic Growth and Inflation | Q1 2014 - Q4 2016

Inflation, yoy var. of quarterly avg. CPI in %

-2

0

2

4

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

Euro area France Germany

Italy Netherlands Spain

Gross domestic productyoy var. in % Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Austria 0.5 0.6 0.4 -0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8Belgium 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.8Cyprus -3.4 -1.7 -2.1 -2.0 - - - - - - - -Estonia 0.3 2.0 2.2 2.7 2.4 1.9 1.8 2.0 2.6 2.7 3.0 3.1Finland 0.1 -0.4 0.0 -0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5France 0.8 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5Germany 2.6 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.3 1.6 2.0 2.2 1.8 2.3 1.8 1.7Greece -0.5 0.3 2.0 1.2 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.5Ireland 3.8 7.2 4.1 4.1 3.2 3.4 4.0 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.0Italy -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2Latvia 2.8 2.3 2.4 2.1 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.7Lithuania 3.3 3.4 2.7 2.4 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.7Luxembourg 2.5 1.3 4.0 - - - - - - - - -Malta 3.2 3.3 3.7 4.0 - - - - - - - -Netherlands 0.0 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7Portugal 0.9 0.9 1.2 0.7 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7Slovakia 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.8 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.0 2.7Slovenia 2.1 2.9 3.2 2.4 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.8Spain 0.6 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.2Euro area 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.6

20152014 2016

Inflation, yoy var. of quarterly avg. CPI in % Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Austria 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.3 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6Belgium 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 0.4 0.7 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.6Cyprus -2.6 -1.4 -0.7 -0.7 - - - - - - - -Estonia 1.1 0.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.5 2.0 2.2Finland 1.5 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.4France 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2Germany 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.5Greece -1.3 -1.7 -0.7 -1.9 -2.0 -1.5 -1.2 -0.7 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.8Ireland 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3Italy 0.5 0.4 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0Latvia 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.8 1.9 2.3 2.5Lithuania 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.8Luxembourg 1.0 1.2 0.7 -0.1 - - - - - - - -Malta 1.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 - - - - - - - -Netherlands 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3Portugal -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1Slovakia -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.5 1.8 1.9 1.9Slovenia 0.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.7Spain 0.0 0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -1.1 -0.8 -0.4 0.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0Euro area 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3

20152014 2016



April 2015

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

Euro area France Germany Italy Spain Netherlands

2013 2014 2015 2016

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Austria 38,023 38,615 39,122 40,141 41,344 42,613 44,030Belgium 35,410 35,946 36,307 37,170 38,151 39,253 40,418Cyprus 20,545 19,641 19,587 19,871 20,277 20,837 21,502Estonia 14,196 14,382 14,805 15,487 16,400 17,406 18,483Finland 37,223 37,425 37,445 38,249 39,380 40,725 42,185France 33,223 33,507 33,748 34,433 35,256 36,174 37,127Germany 34,828 35,933 36,646 37,917 39,285 40,682 42,095Greece 16,491 16,221 16,163 16,627 17,191 17,875 18,619Ireland 36,598 38,587 39,783 41,320 42,884 44,584 46,248Italy 26,960 26,964 26,983 27,401 27,884 28,476 29,100Latvia 11,373 11,834 12,243 12,925 13,772 14,727 15,768Lithuania 11,777 12,276 12,765 13,463 14,304 15,237 16,254Luxembourg 84,337 85,640 87,071 89,023 91,262 93,347 95,918Malta 17,983 18,865 19,537 20,345 21,118 21,869 22,426Netherlands 38,260 38,894 39,389 40,245 41,372 42,672 44,060Portugal 16,162 16,494 16,761 17,205 17,692 18,222 18,792Slovakia 13,601 13,885 14,286 14,935 15,668 16,433 17,228Slovenia 17,552 18,065 18,493 19,082 19,824 20,683 21,620Spain 22,510 22,759 23,230 24,063 24,904 25,818 26,772Euro area 29,838 30,305 30,644 31,441 32,331 33,301 34,306

Gross Domestic Product, annual variation in %

GDP per capita, EUR

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Austria 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6Belgium 0.3 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.9Cyprus -5.4 -2.3 0.3 1.5 1.5 1.8 2.1Estonia 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.8 3.3 3.6 3.6Finland -1.3 -0.1 0.5 1.4 1.7 1.9 2.0France 0.4 0.4 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.7Germany 0.1 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.4Greece -3.9 0.8 0.9 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.6Ireland 0.2 4.8 3.6 3.6 3.3 3.3 3.0Italy -1.7 -0.4 0.5 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3Latvia 4.2 2.4 2.5 3.3 3.8 4.1 4.2Lithuania 3.3 2.9 2.7 3.4 3.7 4.0 4.0Luxembourg 2.0 3.0 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.8Malta 2.7 3.6 2.8 2.5 2.2 1.9 1.9Netherlands -0.7 0.9 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.9Portugal -1.4 0.9 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8Slovakia 1.4 2.4 2.6 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.8Slovenia -1.0 2.6 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.4Spain -1.2 1.4 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.0Euro area -0.4 0.9 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5

GDP per capita, 2015

Notes and sources

Note: GDP per capita in current EUR. Chart excludes Luxembourg due to methodological inconsistencies.Sources: National statistical institutes, central banks and Eurostat.

10,000 17,500 25,000 32,500 40,000

LatviaLithuaniaSlovakiaEstoniaGreece

PortugalSlovenia

MaltaCyprus

SpainItaly

Euro areaFrance

BelgiumGermany

FinlandAustria

NetherlandsIreland

GDP Growth, 2015

Notes and sources

Note: Gross domestic product, real annual variation in %. Sources: National statistical institutes and Eurostat.

0 1 2 3 4

CyprusItaly

FinlandAustriaGreeceFrance

BelgiumEuro area

NetherlandsPortugal

GermanySloveniaEstonia

LuxembourgSpainLatvia

SlovakiaLithuania

MaltaIreland

-3.0

-1.5

0.0

1.5

3.0


2013 2014 2015 2016



April 2015

-6

-3

0

3

6


2013 2014 2015 2016

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Austria -1.5 0.5 0.9 2.5 2.1 2.1 2.0Belgium -2.2 4.8 1.7 2.7 3.1 3.3 3.5Cyprus -17.1 -18.8 0.0 3.4 3.7 4.2 4.6Estonia 2.5 1.2 1.7 3.8 5.1 5.3 5.7Finland -5.3 -5.1 -0.3 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7France -0.8 -1.6 -0.4 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3Germany -0.6 3.4 2.0 3.6 3.4 3.0 2.7Greece -16.5 -2.2 1.0 5.4 5.2 5.3 5.3Ireland -2.4 11.3 10.8 9.3 8.0 7.5 6.9Italy -5.8 -3.2 0.0 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.3Latvia -5.2 1.6 2.3 4.6 5.5 5.7 5.9Lithuania 7.0 8.0 4.9 6.3 6.1 6.1 5.6Luxembourg -4.5 1.5 3.4 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8Malta 2.7 14.0 3.7 3.6 2.8 2.4 2.2Netherlands -4.0 3.4 3.5 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7Portugal -6.7 2.5 2.8 3.1 2.8 2.7 2.7Slovakia -2.7 5.7 3.6 4.4 3.9 3.7 3.5Slovenia 1.9 4.8 3.1 3.1 4.7 5.1 5.4Spain -3.8 3.4 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.6Euro area -2.5 1.0 1.2 2.6 2.2 2.1 2.0

Private Consumption, annual variation in %

Investment, annual variation in %

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Austria -0.1 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4Belgium 0.3 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.7Cyprus -6.0 0.4 -0.1 1.1 1.6 1.9 2.2Estonia 3.8 3.7 3.4 3.5 3.8 4.0 4.1Finland -0.6 -0.2 0.3 0.9 1.6 1.8 1.9France 0.3 0.6 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2Germany 0.8 1.2 2.0 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.2Greece -2.0 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.0Ireland -0.8 1.1 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1Italy -2.8 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1Latvia 6.2 2.3 3.1 3.5 4.0 4.2 4.3Lithuania 4.2 5.6 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.3Luxembourg 1.2 2.1 1.9 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.7Malta 1.6 3.4 2.4 2.2 1.8 1.8 1.7Netherlands -1.6 0.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.4Portugal -1.5 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.2Slovakia -0.8 2.2 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.8Slovenia -4.0 0.3 1.1 1.4 2.0 2.2 2.3Spain -2.3 2.4 2.7 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.6Euro area -0.7 1.0 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4

Private Consumption Growth, 2015

Notes and sources

Note: Private consumption, real annual variation in %. Sources: National statistical institutes and Eurostat.

-1 0 1 2 3 4

CyprusFinland

ItalyAustria

NetherlandsSlovenia

GreeceBelgiumFrance

Euro areaPortugal

LuxembourgIreland

GermanyMalta

SlovakiaSpainLatvia

EstoniaLithuania

-4

-2

0

2

4


2013 2014 2015 2016

Investment Growth, 2015

Notes and sources

Note: Gross fixed investment, real annual variation in %.Sources: National statistical institutes and Eurostat.

-5 0 5 10 15

FranceFinland

ItalyCyprusAustriaGreece

Euro areaBelgiumEstonia

GermanyLatvia

PortugalSlovenia

LuxembourgNetherlands

SlovakiaMaltaSpain

LithuaniaIreland



April 2015

-4

0

4

8


2013 2014 2015 2016

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Austria -0.3 2.4 2.0 4.1 4.4 4.4 4.5Belgium 1.7 2.9 3.1 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.8Cyprus -13.6 8.1 -0.2 1.6 3.1 3.3 3.4Estonia 3.3 -1.1 -4.0 2.7 1.8 0.9 0.9Finland -1.6 -1.4 1.4 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1France 1.9 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.1Germany 3.1 3.4 5.2 5.6 4.7 4.5 4.7Greece -1.6 7.4 4.1 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.9Ireland 0.6 13.2 6.5 5.2 4.9 4.8 4.6Italy -2.3 1.8 2.8 3.8 3.4 3.2 3.0Latvia -0.2 1.5 7.0 3.6 3.8 4.9 5.0Lithuania 9.0 5.4 1.3 3.4 3.5 4.7 5.0Luxembourg 5.8 2.1 3.7 4.0 3.7 3.6 3.6Malta -3.0 1.4 3.4 3.4 3.0 3.3 3.6Netherlands 0.8 4.0 3.3 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.3Portugal 3.9 6.4 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.0Slovakia 3.8 5.0 6.0 4.8 5.1 5.2 5.5Slovenia 1.4 4.1 6.6 7.6 7.0 5.5 5.0Spain -0.5 7.6 5.6 5.1 4.6 4.3 4.1Euro area 1.2 3.8 4.2 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.8

Exports of Goods and Services, annual variation in %

Imports of Goods and Services, annual variation in %

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Austria 1.4 1.5 2.2 4.1 4.6 4.7 4.7Belgium 2.9 3.3 3.1 4.5 3.8 3.6 3.4Cyprus -5.0 5.7 1.5 2.5 3.0 3.3 3.3Estonia 2.4 -2.2 -1.4 2.7 1.8 1.3 0.5Finland -0.7 -0.4 2.3 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.3France 2.4 2.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.0Germany 1.6 3.9 5.0 5.0 4.4 4.1 4.0Greece 2.1 9.0 4.8 5.3 5.0 4.7 4.3Ireland 1.1 12.6 6.3 5.4 5.1 5.1 4.8Italy 0.5 2.7 3.7 4.1 3.5 3.1 3.1Latvia 1.4 1.9 6.2 3.1 3.2 4.9 5.0Lithuania 9.4 3.4 -1.1 2.8 3.9 4.1 4.5Luxembourg 5.6 3.1 3.8 4.0 4.0 3.7 3.9Malta -3.0 1.2 3.4 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.8Netherlands 2.0 4.0 3.6 3.8 3.4 3.3 3.3Portugal 6.4 3.4 5.4 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.8Slovakia 5.2 4.6 6.4 4.2 4.5 5.3 5.4Slovenia 2.6 6.3 5.9 7.7 6.7 5.6 4.8Spain 4.3 4.2 5.2 5.3 5.0 4.7 4.6Euro area 2.0 3.7 4.2 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.3

Exports Growth, 2015

Notes and sources

Note: Exports of good and services, real annual variation in %.Sources: National statistical institutes and Eurostat.

-2 0 2 4 6 8

EstoniaLithuania

CyprusAustriaFinland

BelgiumMalta

NetherlandsItaly

LuxembourgFrance

Euro areaGreece

GermanySpain

PortugalSlovenia

LatviaIreland

Slovakia

0

2

4

6


2013 2014 2015 2016

Imports Growth, 2015

Notes and sources

Note: Imports of good and services, real annual variation in %.Sources: National statistical institutes and Eurostat.

-6 -3 0 3 6 9

EstoniaCyprus

LithuaniaFinlandAustria

ItalyBelgium

NetherlandsMalta

FranceLuxembourg

GreeceEuro area

PortugalGermany

SpainSlovakia

IrelandSlovenia

Latvia



April 2015

Industrial Production, annual variation in %

Unemployment, % of active population2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Austria 4.9 5.7 5.2 5.2 5.0 4.9 4.9Belgium 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.2 7.9 7.7 7.7Cyprus 15.9 16.1 15.9 15.0 14.3 13.4 13.0Estonia 8.6 7.3 7.1 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.0Finland 8.2 8.7 8.8 8.7 8.3 7.8 7.6France 10.3 10.2 10.3 10.0 9.9 9.2 9.1Germany 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.4 6.1 5.9 5.6Greece 27.5 26.5 25.5 23.9 20.3 18.1 16.4Ireland 13.1 11.3 9.9 8.9 8.5 8.4 7.9Italy 12.2 12.7 12.8 12.4 11.7 11.5 11.2Latvia 11.9 10.9 9.9 9.1 8.6 8.0 7.7Lithuania 11.8 10.7 10.1 9.4 9.1 8.5 8.4Luxembourg 6.9 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.3Malta 6.5 5.9 5.9 5.8 6.0 6.0 6.0Netherlands 7.3 7.4 7.1 6.8 7.2 7.1 6.9Portugal 16.5 14.1 13.0 12.3 12.3 12.0 11.5Slovakia 14.1 12.8 12.5 11.9 11.4 10.7 10.1Slovenia 10.1 9.8 9.3 8.7 8.2 7.6 7.3Spain 26.1 24.4 22.6 20.9 19.7 18.7 17.3Euro area 12.0 11.6 11.1 10.7 10.2 9.9 9.5

Unemployment, 2015

Notes and sources

Note: Average unemployment rate for the year.Sources: National statistical institutes and Eurostat.

0 10 20 30

AustriaMalta

GermanyLuxembourg

EstoniaNetherlands

BelgiumFinland

SloveniaLatvia

IrelandLithuania

FranceEuro area

SlovakiaItaly

PortugalCyprus

SpainGreece

5

10

15

20

25

30


2013 2014 2015 2016

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Austria 0.6 -0.5 1.5 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.8Belgium 0.7 0.8 1.5 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6Cyprus -5.3 1.3 - - - - -Estonia 4.1 2.1 3.4 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.5Finland -3.5 -2.6 1.5 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.5France -0.5 -1.0 0.7 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7Germany 0.1 1.5 2.0 2.4 1.8 1.5 1.4Greece -3.2 -2.2 -0.1 1.0 1.7 2.0 2.2Ireland -2.5 19.9 5.6 4.1 3.7 3.7 3.8Italy -3.1 -0.7 0.2 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.7Latvia -0.4 -1.0 2.0 2.5 4.0 4.0 4.1Lithuania 3.8 0.1 2.3 3.5 4.0 3.9 3.8Luxembourg -7.1 -0.4 - - - - -Malta -4.7 -5.7 - - - - -Netherlands 0.6 -2.9 0.8 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0Portugal 0.4 1.0 1.6 3.0 2.4 2.2 2.1Slovakia 5.3 3.4 4.8 5.3 4.8 4.4 3.4Slovenia -1.4 1.6 2.9 2.9 3.3 3.5 3.7Spain -1.5 1.2 1.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8Euro area -0.7 0.7 1.5 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.5

Industrial Production Growth, 2015

Notes and sources

Note: Industrial production, real annual variation in %. Sources: National statistical institutes and Eurostat.

-2 0 2 4 6

GreeceItaly

FranceNetherlands

Euro areaBelgiumAustriaFinland

PortugalSpainLatvia

GermanyLithuaniaSloveniaEstonia

SlovakiaIreland

-6

-3

0

3


2013 2014 2015 2016



April 2015

60

90

120

150


2013 2014 2015 2016

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Austria 80.9 84.5 86.6 85.2 81.7 80.4 79.7Belgium 104.5 106.7 107.4 107.2 106.0 104.2 101.9Cyprus 102.2 115.3 118.7 116.6 113.9 110.3 107.1Estonia 10.1 10.0 9.8 9.6 8.9 8.3 8.2Finland 56.0 59.2 61.5 62.4 61.8 60.9 59.9France 92.2 95.4 97.6 98.9 99.6 99.7 99.7Germany 76.9 74.7 72.2 69.6 68.8 66.7 65.4Greece 174.9 176.1 173.4 168.2 164.1 156.2 149.3Ireland 123.3 111.1 109.6 106.3 104.8 101.1 98.5Italy 128.5 132.1 133.6 133.0 130.4 127.1 124.6Latvia 38.2 38.9 36.4 35.7 33.9 32.9 32.8Lithuania 39.0 40.2 40.0 37.6 36.6 36.2 35.9Luxembourg 23.6 23.9 24.5 26.0 24.3 24.2 23.6Malta 69.8 70.6 70.0 68.9 67.4 68.2 68.2Netherlands 68.6 68.8 70.3 70.0 69.1 68.9 68.3Portugal 128.0 129.0 125.9 124.8 124.0 122.2 121.0Slovakia 54.6 55.1 55.4 55.0 53.4 52.2 49.9Slovenia 70.4 78.1 79.2 79.9 79.4 78.8 78.1Spain 92.1 98.1 101.3 102.0 101.4 101.1 99.9Euro area 90.9 94.5 94.8 94.1 93.9 92.7 91.2

Fiscal Balance, 2015

Notes and sources

Note: Fiscal balance as % of GDP.Source: Eurostat.

Fiscal Balance, % of GDP

Public Debt, % of GDP

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Austria -1.3 -2.4 -2.0 -1.5 -1.1 -1.0 -1.0Belgium -2.9 -3.1 -2.6 -2.2 -1.5 -1.3 -1.3Cyprus -4.9 -3.9 -3.2 -2.6 -2.2 -1.8 -1.7Estonia -0.5 -0.3 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3Finland -2.4 -3.2 -2.5 -2.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.3France -4.1 -4.4 -4.2 -3.9 -3.0 -2.6 -2.3Germany 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4Greece -12.2 -2.6 -1.9 -1.5 -0.5 -0.2 -0.1Ireland -5.7 -3.8 -2.7 -2.0 -1.0 -0.5 -0.2Italy -2.8 -3.0 -2.8 -2.4 -1.7 -1.5 -1.5Latvia -0.9 -1.2 -1.2 -1.0 -0.9 -0.7 -0.5Lithuania -2.6 -1.8 -1.5 -1.0 -1.0 -0.9 -0.8Luxembourg 0.6 0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2Malta -2.7 -2.5 -2.1 -1.7 -1.4 -1.5 -1.4Netherlands -2.3 -2.3 -2.1 -1.8 -1.4 -1.3 -1.0Portugal -4.9 -4.5 -3.1 -2.5 -2.2 -1.8 -1.6Slovakia -2.6 -2.9 -2.5 -2.2 -1.8 -1.6 -1.1Slovenia -14.6 -4.6 -3.5 -2.9 -2.8 -2.7 -2.6Spain -6.8 -5.7 -4.5 -3.4 -2.6 -2.2 -1.7Euro area -2.9 -2.6 -2.3 -2.0 -1.4 -1.2 -1.1

-6 -4 -2 0 2

SpainFrance

SloveniaCyprus

PortugalItaly

IrelandBelgiumSlovakiaFinland

Euro areaMalta

NetherlandsAustriaGreece

LithuaniaLatvia

EstoniaLuxembourg

Germany

Public Debt, 2015

Notes and sources

Note: Public debt as % of GDP.Source: Eurostat.

0 40 80 120 160 200

EstoniaLuxembourg

LatviaLithuaniaSlovakiaFinland

MaltaNetherlands

GermanySlovenia

AustriaEuro area

FranceSpain

BelgiumIrelandCyprus

PortugalItaly

Greece

-9

-6

-3

0

3


2013 2014 2015 2016



April 2015

0

2

4

6


2013 2014 2015 2016

Inflation, 2015

Notes and sources

Note: Annual average variation of consumer prices in %. Germany refers to national consumer price indices (CPI). All other countries are based on harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). Sources: National statistical institutes, central banks and Eurostat.

Inflation, annual average variation of consumer prices in %2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Austria 2.1 1.5 0.9 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.1Belgium 1.2 0.5 0.2 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.7Cyprus 0.4 -0.3 0.4 1.0 1.6 1.9 2.0Estonia 3.2 0.5 0.8 1.9 2.5 2.5 2.5Finland 2.2 1.2 0.4 1.2 1.7 1.9 2.0France 1.0 0.6 0.2 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.4Germany 1.5 0.9 0.3 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.0Greece -0.9 -1.4 -1.3 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.5Ireland 0.5 0.3 0.2 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.7Italy 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.3Latvia 0.0 0.7 0.6 1.9 2.4 2.5 2.6Lithuania 1.2 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.1 2.1 2.2Luxembourg 1.7 0.7 1.2 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.9Malta 1.0 0.8 1.1 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.9Netherlands 2.6 0.3 0.0 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.6Portugal 0.4 -0.2 0.1 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.4Slovakia 1.5 -0.1 0.4 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.2Slovenia 1.9 0.4 0.5 1.3 1.8 2.1 2.2Spain 1.5 -0.2 -0.5 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5Euro area 1.4 0.4 0.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.7

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Austria 2.28 0.71 0.44 0.59 1.38 1.95 2.43Belgium 2.46 1.00 0.81 1.55 2.55 2.34 2.69Cyprus 6.00 6.00 - - - - -Estonia - - - - - - -Finland 2.13 0.80 0.62 0.91 1.35 1.37 1.48France 2.43 0.84 0.68 1.08 1.16 1.86 2.35Germany 1.94 0.54 0.56 1.04 1.38 1.79 2.27Greece 8.50 9.60 8.23 7.18 6.53 6.52 6.16Ireland 3.44 1.24 0.84 1.18 1.71 2.11 2.41Italy 4.09 1.88 1.45 2.00 2.28 2.41 2.44Latvia 5.25 3.12 - - - - -Lithuania 3.80 2.00 - - - - -Luxembourg 2.10 0.65 - - - - -Malta 3.19 1.94 - - - - -Netherlands 2.23 0.68 0.61 1.30 1.20 1.64 1.92Portugal 6.19 2.69 2.07 2.29 2.94 3.19 3.03Slovakia - - - - - - -Slovenia 5.27 2.11 - - - - -Spain 4.12 1.61 1.49 2.13 2.63 2.77 3.28Euro area 3.31 1.45 1.77 2.25 2.65 2.86 3.14

-1

0

1

2

3


2013 2014 2015 2016

-2 -1 0 1 2

GreeceSpain

NetherlandsEuro area

ItalyPortugal

IrelandBelgiumFrance

GermanyCyprus

SlovakiaFinland

SloveniaLatvia

LithuaniaEstoniaAustria

MaltaLuxembourg

10-Year Bond Yield, 2015

Notes and sources

Note: 10-year bond yield in %, end of period. Sources: National central banks and European Central Bank (ECB).

0 2 4 6 8 10

Austria

Germany

Netherlands

Finland

France

Belgium

Ireland

Italy

Spain

Euro area

Portugal

Greece

10-Year Bond Yield, %



April 2015

Current Account Balance, 2015

Notes and sources

Note: Current account balance as % of GDP. Sources: National statistical institutes and Eurostat.

Current Account Balance, % of GDP2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Austria 1.0 0.8 1.3 1.3 2.3 2.3 2.4Belgium 0.1 1.6 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.3Cyprus -3.3 -0.9 -0.7 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3Estonia -1.1 -1.5 -1.6 -1.6 -2.0 -2.0 -2.1Finland -1.8 -1.9 -1.0 -0.7 -0.2 0.1 0.2France -1.3 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6Germany 6.5 7.6 7.6 7.3 6.3 6.1 6.0Greece 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.4Ireland 4.4 6.2 6.0 5.7 5.6 4.9 4.7Italy 1.0 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.8Latvia -2.3 -3.1 -2.1 -2.6 -2.1 -2.0 -1.8Lithuania 1.6 -0.5 -0.7 -1.1 -1.1 -1.2 -1.2Luxembourg 4.9 5.0 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.4Malta 3.1 2.5 2.0 1.9 0.7 0.5 0.5Netherlands 11.0 10.3 10.0 9.7 9.0 8.4 8.1Portugal 1.4 0.6 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.6Slovakia 2.1 2.9 2.4 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8Slovenia 5.6 5.9 5.2 4.8 3.9 3.2 2.7Spain 1.4 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6Euro area 1.9 2.3 2.7 2.6 2.2 2.1 1.9

-3 0 3 6 9 12

LatviaEstoniaFranceFinland

LithuaniaCyprus

SpainBelgiumPortugalGreeceAustria

MaltaItaly

SlovakiaEuro area

LuxembourgSlovenia

IrelandGermany

Netherlands

-4

0

4

8

12


2013 2014 2015 2016

FOCUSECONOMICS


April 2015

Economic Release Calendar

Date Country Event31 March Euro area February Unemployment31 March Euro area March Consumer Prices (*)31 March Ireland Q4 2014 National Accounts31 March Italy March Consumer Prices (*)31 March Spain January Balance of Payments 31 March Spain February Retail Sales1 April Greece April Markit Manufacturing PMI (*)1 April Ireland March Investec Manufacturing PMI1 April Italy March Markit/ADACI Manufacturing PMI1 April Netherlands March NEVI Manufacturing PMI1 April Spain March Markit Manufacturing PMI3 April Ireland March Investec Services PMI7 April Cyprus March Consumer Prices7 April Spain March Markit Services PMI8 April Ireland March Consumer Confidence (**)9 April Germany February Industrial Production9 April Germany February Merchandise Trade9 April Greece February Industrial Production10 April Finland February Industrial Production10 April France February Industrial Production10 April Ireland February Industrial Production (**)10 April Spain February Industrial Production13 April Italy February Industrial Production14 April Euro area February Industrial Production14 April Italy March Consumer Prices 14 April Spain March Consumer Prices15 April Euro area Central Bank Meeting15 April Finland February Balance of Payments15 April Finland February Trend Indicator of Output15 April France March Consumer Prices17 April Euro area March Consumer Prices17 April Austria March Consumer Prices20 April Cyprus January Industrial Production20 April Portugal April Leading Indicators20 April Portugal March Industrial Production22 April Netherlands April Consumer Confidence23 April Euro area April Markit Composite PMI (*)23 April France April Markit Composite PMI (*)23 April France April Business Confidence23 April Germany April Markit Composite PMI (*)23 April Germany May Consumer Confidence24 April Austria February Industrial Production24 April Belgium April Leading Indicators (*)24 April Belgium February Industrial Production24 April Germany April Business Confidence24 April Netherlands April Business Confidence

(*) Preliminary estimate. (**) Approximate date.

Calendar

FOCUSECONOMICS


April 2015

Economic Release Calendar

(*) Preliminary estimate. (**) Approximate date.

Date Country Event28 April France April Consumer Confidence29 April Euro area April Economic Sentiment29 April Austria April Consumer Confidence29 April Austria March Unemployment29 April Austria April Bank Austria Manufacturing PMI29 April Belgium April Consumer Prices29 April Belgium Q4 2014 National Accounts29 April Germany April Consumer Prices (*)29 April Italy April Consumer Confidence29 April Italy April Business Confidence29 April Spain March Retail Sales30 April Euro area March Unemployment30 April Euro area April Consumer Prices (*)30 April Austria Q1 2015 National Accounts (*)30 April Italy April Consumer Prices (*)30 April Spain February Balance of Payments 30 April Spain February Housing Permits30 April Spain Q1 2015 National Accounts (*)1 May Greece May Markit Manufacturing PMI (*)1 May Ireland April Investec Manufacturing PMI1 May Italy April Markit/ADACI Manufacturing PMI1 May Netherlands April NEVI Manufacturing PMI4 May Spain April Markit Manufacturing PMI

FOCUSECONOMICS Euro area


April 2015

Euro area

REAL SECTOR | More complete data show mild GDP acceleration in Q4The Eurozone economy grew a seasonally-adjusted 0.3% in Q4, according to preliminary data released by Eurostat on 6 March. The reading came in slightly above the 0.2% rise observed in Q3 and was in line with market expectations. On an annual basis, GDP growth rose from 0.8% in Q3 to 0.9% in Q4.

The mild acceleration in Q4 reflected an improvement in the external sector and a stronger growth in fixed investment. Exports of goods and service services increased 0.8% in Q4 over the previous quarter, which followed the 1.5% expansion observed in Q3. Imports grew 0.4% in Q4, which came in below the 1.7% expansion witnessed in Q3. As exports expanded faster than imports, the external sector’s net contribution to overall economic growth was 0.2 percentage points in Q4, which improved over a flat reading in Q3.

On the domestic front, private consumption grew 0.4% in Q4 (Q3: +0.5% quarter-on-quarter) and government spending expanded 0.2%, mirroring an increase of the same magnitude in Q3. Meanwhile, fixed investment swung from a flat reading in Q3 to a 0.4% expansion in Q4.

In 2014, the Eurozone economy expanded 0.9%, recovering from the 0.4% contraction registered in 2013. The European Commission expects the Eurozone economy to increase 1.3% in 2015. In 2016, the Commission sees

The Eurozone economy improved in the fourth quarter of 2014. Although growth picked up just slightly over the third quarter, recent data provide further evidence that the bloc’s economy is gaining momentum at the outset of 2015. The composite PMI—a closely-watched leading indicator—rose to a nearly-four-year high in March and economic sentiment improved in the same month. Businesses and consumers are more upbeat as the euro’s slide supports export-oriented manufacturers and borrowers are benefitting from the European Central Bank’s ultra-loose monetary policy.

Growth prospects for the Eurozone economy in 2015 improved this month, reflecting tailwinds from low oil prices, a weak euro, easing fiscal austerity and stronger signals from the latest leading indicators. The FocusEconomics panel raised the 2015 growth forecast from the 1.2% expected last month to 1.3%. For 2016, forecasters see the bloc’s economy picking up pace and expanding 1.7%.

Consumer prices fell 0.3% year-on-year in February (January: -0.6% year-on-year), which marked the third straight month of declining prices. On 9 March, the European Central Bank (ECB) began its bond-buying program, which is designed to pump over EUR 1 trillion into the financial system to kick-start lending and push inflation. FocusEconomics panelists see zero inflation in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel foresees inflation rising to 1.2%.

Outlook improves

LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages


Euro area

2011-13 2014-16 2017-19Population (million): 330.8 333.2 335.2GDP (EUR bn): 9,825 10,262 11,168GDP per capita (EUR): 29,703 30,797 33,313GDP growth (%): 0.2 1.3 1.6Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -3.5 -2.3 -1.2Public Debt (% of GDP): 88.6 94.5 92.6Inflation (%): 2.2 0.5 1.6Current Account (% of GDP): 1.3 2.5 2.1

Gross Domestic Product | variation in %

Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally-adjusted GDP and year-on-year variarion in %.Source: Eurostat and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015

Quarter-on-quarter s.a. (left scale)

Year-on-year (right scale)

% %



April 2015

economic growth picking up to 1.9%. Meanwhile, in its March review of the economy, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised its 2015 GDP growth forecasts for the bloc’s economy and now expects it to expand 1.5% (previous estimate: +1.0%). For 2016, the ECB also raised its projection and now sees economic growth rising to 1.9%, which is up its previous 1.5% estimate.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to expand 1.3% in 2015, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, panelists expect the economy to expand 1.7%.

REAL SECTOR | Eurozone PMI climbs to highest level in nearly four yearsThe flash estimate of the Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index came in at 54.1 in March. The reading was above the revised 53.3 recorded in February (previously reported: 53.5) and smashed the 53.6 that the markets had expected. March’s result represented the fourth consecutive increase in the gauge, which also climbed to its highest level in nearly four years, rising further above the 50-threshold that separates expansion from contraction in business activity in the common currency area.

The strong reading was driven by notable rises in the manufacturing and services sectors, particularly the services sector, which also picked up to the highest level in almost four years. According to Markit, the acceleration in business activity was propelled by faster growth in new orders and a stronger increase in both in business activity and manufacturing output. Meanwhile, employment rose over the previous month and was more noticeable in the manufacturing sector.

Markit concluded that the strong improvement observed in the March PMI provides, “welcome news to a region awaiting signs that the ECB’s quantitative easing is stimulating the real economy.” Markit added the economy “looks to have expanded by 0.3% in the first quarter, buoyed by a 0.4% expansion in Germany and signs of a long-awaited recovery in France.”

At a country level, Germany’s composite PMI rose in March to the highest point in eight months. Meanwhile, France’s composite PMI continued to signal an expansion in business activity for the second month in a row, although the pace of growth moderated over the previous month. Excluding Germany and France, the composite PMI for all the other countries in the region rose to the highest level since July 2014.

REAL SECTOR | Industrial production in common currency area contracts mildly In January, industrial production fell a seasonally-adjusted 0.1% over the previous month. The reading contrasted both the revised 0.3% rise observed in December (previously reported: 0.0% month-on-month) and market expectations that had industrial output rising 0.2%.

The mild contraction observed in January reflected a contraction in the three Baltic economies (Estonia: -1.5% mom, Latvia: -3.1% mom, Lithuania: -2.3% mom). Other regional worst performers were Finland (-2.5% mom) and Luxembourg (-1.8% mom). On the other side of the spectrum, Malta (+6.1% mom) and the Netherlands (+1.4% mom) registered better results. Regarding the four major economies in the Eurozone, in France industrial production increased 0.4% in January, while in Germany industrial output growth was flat.

Purchasing Managers’ Index

Note: Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) Composite Output. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion in business activity while a value below 50 points to a contraction.Source: Markit.

45.0

47.5

50.0

52.5

55.0

Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15

Industrial Production | variation in %

Note: Month-on-month var. of seasonally-adjusted industrial production and annual average growth rate in %. Source: Eurostat.

-3.0

-1.5

0.0

1.5

3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15

Month-on-month s.a. (left scale)

Annual average (right scale)

%%



April 2015

In Spain, industrial production expanded 0.2% over the previous month, while in Italy it contracted 0.7%.

On an annual basis, industrial production accelerated from a revised 0.6% increase in December (previously reported: -0.2% year-on-year) to a 1.2% expansion in January. The reading represented the fastest year-on-year increase in six months. The trend remains subdued, with annual average growth in industrial production inching down from 0.7% in December to 0.6% in January.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see industrial production expanding 1.5% in 2015, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, panelists see industrial production growing 2.4%.

OUTLOOK | Economic sentiment hits highest level since July 2011The Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) elaborated by the European Commission rose from a revised 102.3 points in February (previously reported: 102.1 points) to 103.9 points in March. The reading, which was on par with market expectations, represented the highest level since July 2011 and continued to hover above the 100-point long-term average.

March’s improvement was broad based, with consumer sentiment, industry and services showing the largest gains. At a country level, high economic sentiment was registered in Malta and Slovenia and Lithuania. At the other side of the spectrum, Austria, Finland and Luxembourg were the worst performers. Among the four largest economies, all countries registered higher sentiment.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see private consumption growing 1.5% in 2015, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2016, panelists see consumption expanding 1.3%. Panelists expect investment to grow 1.2% in 2015, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2016, panelists see investment increasing 2.6%.

MONETARY SECTOR | More complete data confirm third consecutive annual fall in consumer pricesMore complete data published by Eurostat on 17 March showed that the harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) in February jumped 0.6% over the previous month, which contrasted the 1.6% drop recorded in January. In annual terms, harmonized consumer prices fell 0.3% in February, which confirmed the preliminary estimate and marked a third consecutive month in negative territory, sparking fears that the Euro area could fall into a sustained period of falling prices.

More complete data also showed that 10 of the 19 Eurozone economies posted annual inflation rates equal to or below the regional average. Greece (-1.9%), Lithuania (-1.5%), and Spain (-1.2%) recorded the lowest annual inflation rates. At the other end of the spectrum, Malta (+0.6%) and Austria (+0.5%) showed the highest year-on-year increases in harmonized consumer prices. Among the remaining major economies in the Eurozone, in Germany consumer prices fell 0.1% annually in February and in France prices dropped 0.3% over the same month last year. In Italy, harmonized inflation rose a mild 0.1% in February.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants see zero inflation in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2016, panelists expect inflation to average 1.2%.

Economic Sentiment | March 2015

Note: The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) is based on surveys addressed to the manufacturing, services, retail trade and construction sectors, as well as to consumers. Values above 100 indicate an above-average economic sentiment, whereas values below 100 indicate a below-average position. Source: European Commission.

80 90 100 110 120

LuxembourgFinlandAustriaEstoniaGreeceFrance

BelgiumSlovakia

CyprusPortugal

NetherlandsEuro areaLithuania

GermanyItaly

SpainSlovenia

Malta

Inflation | variation in %

Note: Year-on-year and monthly variation of harmonized consumer price index (HICP) in %.Source: Eurostat.

-0.8

0.0

0.8

1.6

2.4

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15

Month-on-month (left scale)


%%



April 2015

MONETARY SECTOR | ECB leaves key rates unchanged, begins purchase of euro-denominated public sector securitiesThe European Central Bank (ECB) decided to leave the main refinancing rate unchanged at the record low of 0.05% at its 5 March monetary policy meeting held in Nicosia. The ECB also kept the deposit rate—the rate banks receive for parking funds at the ECB—at minus 0.20% and left the marginal lending rate at 0.30%. Market analysts had anticipated the Bank’s decision to maintain the rates unchanged.

The Bank’s decision came amid an improving outlook for the Eurozone economy as growth momentum is continuing to strengthen. Nonetheless, the Bank recognized that downward risks to the outlook persist, although they have diminished following the Bank’s recent monetary policy decisions and partially as a result of the fall in oil prices. In fact, the Central Bank raised its growth forecasts for the bloc’s economy for both 2015 and 2016. On the inflation side, the Bank stated that the fall in consumer prices in February, which marked the third consecutive month of decline, was mainly due to the impact of the sharp drop in global oil prices. The Bank recognized, however, that it expects inflation to remain low or negative in the coming months, while it foresees it starting to rise gradually at the end of 2015.

Regarding the quantitative easing (QE) program that the ECB launched on 22 January, the Bank began the purchase of euro-denominated public sector securities in the secondary market on 9 March. The ECB had set a target for its monthly purchases at EUR 60 billion per month; considering that the pace of asset-backed securities (ABS) and covered bond purchases has been around EUR 12 billion per month since the programs started, this means that additional purchases of sovereign bonds will be set at around EUR 50 billion per month. The ECB set end-September 2016 as the deadline for the end of the purchase program and emphasized that it is open-ended in nature as the Bank will continue purchasing assets until it sees, “a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation which is consistent with our aim of achieving inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.” ECB President Mario Draghi underlined that at the current stage, monetary authorities are not willing to enter into any discussion regarding if or when the pace of purchases may be adjusted, tapered or stop.

Skepticism persists among many analysts regarding the pace of adjustment of the QE program and its impact on the Eurozone economy. According to Nick Matthews, Senior European Economist at Nomura:

Given the current improvement in the data it is difficult to disagree with the ECB’s baseline in the short-term. But at this stage we do not have the conviction that core inflation will pick up as strongly as the ECB staff project over time for us to be confident that the staff projections will be realised and the Governing Council will be in a position to stop purchases in September 2016. We therefore continue to believe it is more likely than not that the ECB will be forced to continue its asset purchases beyond September 2016.

It also remains to be seen whether the QE program will help to revive the Eurozone economy, as skepticism persists as to whether this controversial measure will help to revive the Euro area economy and lift inflation. The ECB’s QE is an aggressive and bold program that demonstrates European monetary authorities’ commitment to fighting deflation. Whether or not it is effective

ECB Refinancing Rate | in %

Note: ECB Refinancing Rate in %.Source: European Central Bank (ECB).

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15

Marginal Lending RateMain Refinancing RateDeposit Rate

%



April 2015

remains to be seen given that QE has not helped the subdued inflation situation in other countries like the U.K. and Japan.

Within this setting, all FocusEconomics panelists expect the ECB to maintain the policy rate unchanged at the current record-low of 0.05% over the course of the next two years.

MONETARY SECTOR | Euro almost touches parity with dollar, recent gains seem short livedLike many major currencies, the euro dropped to multi-year lows against the U.S. dollar in the first days of March. The euro had experienced a strengthening trend between the second half of 2012 and the first half of 2014, but this trend has reversed in the last six months. Starting in H2 2014, the euro began experiencing sharp, almost uninterrupted drops against the greenback, hitting multi-year lows in the first days of March. In fact, on 13 March, the euro traded at 1.05 EUR per USD, having weakened 7.7% over the same day the previous month and losing nearly a quarter of its value against the U.S. dollar in annual terms. This broke the psychological barrier of 1.10 EUR per USD as the euro hit the lowest level since 2002.

A variety of domestic and external factors have exerted pressure on the single currency. Among these factors are the European Central Bank’s extension of its asset purchase program—also known as quantitative easing (QE)—as well as expectations of an increase in U.S. interest rates this year and a decline in global oil prices. On the political front, the weakening of the euro has been aggravated by disagreement between the new Greek government, which is led by the anti-austerity SYRIZA party, and European leaders regarding Greece’s reform plans and whether the bailout program will keep Athens from running out of cash.

However, the euro did gain some of the ground it had lost against the greenback in recent days, which mainly resulted from recent disappointing data on the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve’s meeting in which Chair Janet Yellen made a subtle modification to the Fed’s guidance. Another factor contributing to the euro’s rally against the U.S. dollar is the notable improvement observed in economic indicators for the Eurozone. However, despite the euro’s recent uptick, further weakening is expected to continue as Mark Cliffe, Global Head of Financial Markets at ING Bank, points out:

In FX markets, the much anticipated divergence in transatlantic monetary policy is delivering a sharper-than-expected adjustment in the EUR/USD exchange rate. We had thought that parity would not be seen until year end, but aggressive EUR hedging from the buy side and still the prospect of higher US market interest rates over coming months means that we our [sic] bringing forward our parity forecast to June.

Should the depreciation of the euro continue this year, this will translate into an economic boost for export-oriented European manufacturers and ultimately for the whole economy in the Eurozone. Forecasters polled by FocusEconomics expect that the euro will trade at 1.04 EUR per USD at the end of 2015. At the end of 2016, the euro is expected to trade at 1.07 EUR per USD.

Exchange Rate | USD per EUR

Note: Daily spot of U.S. dollar (USD) against euro (EUR).Source: Thomson Reuters.

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15



April 2015

Economic Indicators | 2010 - 2019

Annual Data 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Real Sector Population (million) 331 330 331 332 332 333 334 335 335 336GDP per capita (EUR) 28,777 29,603 29,667 29,838 30,305 30,644 31,441 32,331 33,301 34,306GDP (EUR bn) 9,512 9,768 9,812 9,896 10,075 10,211 10,500 10,819 11,164 11,521Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) 2.8 2.7 0.5 0.8 1.8 1.4 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.2Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 2.0 1.7 -0.8 -0.4 0.9 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5Domestic Demand (annual variation in %) 1.5 0.7 -2.3 -0.9 0.8 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 0.8 0.2 -1.3 -0.7 1.0 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4Government Consumption (annual var. in %) 0.8 -0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.7 - - - - -Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) -0.4 1.6 -3.7 -2.5 1.0 1.2 2.6 2.2 2.1 2.0Exports (G&S, annual variation in %) 11.0 6.6 2.5 2.0 3.7 4.2 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.3Imports (G&S, annual variation in %) 9.7 4.3 -1.1 1.2 3.8 4.2 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.8Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 7.3 3.4 -2.4 -0.7 0.7 1.5 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.5Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 10.2 10.2 11.4 12.0 11.6 11.1 10.7 10.2 9.9 9.5Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -6.1 -4.1 -3.6 -2.9 -2.6 -2.3 -2.0 -1.4 -1.2 -1.1Public Debt (% of GDP) 83.7 85.8 89.0 90.9 94.5 94.8 94.1 93.9 92.7 91.2Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M3 in %) -0.7 2.2 3.0 0.5 4.8 - - - - -Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, eop) 2.2 2.8 2.2 0.9 -0.2 - - - - -Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, aop) 1.6 2.7 2.5 1.4 0.4 0.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.7Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %, aop) 2.7 5.7 2.8 -0.2 -1.4 - - - - -ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 1.00 1.00 0.75 0.25 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.39 0.76 1.543-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) 1.01 1.36 0.19 0.29 0.08 0.03 0.06 0.62 1.00 1.5710-Yr Bond Yield (weighted Euro avg. %, eop) 4.07 4.09 2.10 3.31 1.45 1.77 2.25 2.65 2.86 3.14Stock Market (Eurostoxx 50, var. in %) -2.2 -16.4 14.4 19.1 1.7 - - - - -Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.34 1.30 1.32 1.38 1.21 1.04 1.07 1.13 1.17 1.20Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, aop) 1.33 1.39 1.29 1.33 1.33 1.08 1.06 1.10 1.15 1.19External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 0.2 0.2 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.7 2.6 2.2 2.1 1.9Current Account Balance (EUR bn) 21.6 20.2 162.8 190.7 231.8 271.2 271.1 241.1 230.5 216.7Trade Balance (EUR bn) 44.2 39.9 145.4 215.6 240.9 - - - - - Quarterly Data Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.6Economic Growth (GDP, s.a. qoq var. in %) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4Private Consumption (s.a. qoq var. in %) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3Fixed Investment (s.a. qoq variation in %) 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8Exports (G&S, s.a. qoq variation in %) 1.5 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.2Imports (G&S, s.a. qoq variation in %) 1.7 0.4 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 0.5 0.2 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 11.5 11.4 11.2 11.1 11.0 10.9 10.8 10.6 10.6 10.5Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, aop) 0.4 0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.053-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) 0.08 0.08 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.06Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.26 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.06 1.07Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, aop) 1.33 1.25 1.15 1.07 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.07 Monthly Data Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 0.3 1.7 -0.5 0.1 0.7 -0.6 0.6 1.2 - -Industrial Production (s.a. mom var. in %) -0.2 0.7 -1.2 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 -0.1 - -Unemployment (% of active population) 11.6 11.6 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.3 11.2 - -Econ. Sent. Indicator (100-point threshold) 102.4 102.5 100.9 100.2 100.9 100.8 100.9 101.5 102.3 103.9Markit Composite PMI (50-threshold) 52.8 53.8 52.5 52.0 52.2 51.1 51.4 52.6 53.3 54.1Inflation (HICP, mom variation in %) 0.1 -0.7 0.1 0.4 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -1.6 0.6 -Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 -0.2 -0.6 -0.3 -Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.37 1.34 1.32 1.26 1.25 1.25 1.21 1.13 1.12 -



April 2015

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product

Real GDP growth in %

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from Eurostat. Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.1 GDP, real annual variation in %. 2 Quarterly GDP (seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.3 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in

%. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016Allianz 1.5 1.6Banco BPI 1.0 1.7Bankia 1.5 1.8BBVA Research 1.3 2.2Berenberg 1.3 1.9Berliner Sparkasse 1.3 1.3BNP Paribas 1.1 1.8Citigroup Global Mkts 1.5 2.0Coe-Rexecode 1.6 1.7Commerzbank 1.2 1.3Credit Agricole 1.0 1.5Credit Suisse 1.5 2.1DekaBank 1.5 1.7Deutsche Bank 1.4 1.6DIW Berlin 1.3 1.4DNB 1.2 1.3DZ Bank 1.3 1.5EIU 1.3 1.5Eurobank 1.1 -Goldman Sachs 1.5 1.7Gruppo MPS 1.0 1.5Holding Monex 1.2 1.5Ifo Institut 0.9 -ING 1.4 1.7Instituto Flores de Lemus 1.4 1.8Intesa Sanpaolo 1.1 1.6JPMorgan 1.7 2.5Julius Baer 1.5 1.8KBC 1.6 1.8Kiel Institute 1.3 1.7La Caixa 1.5 1.8Lloyds TSB 1.0 1.9NIBC Bank 1.1 0.2Nomura 1.1 1.1Nordea 1.3 1.6Novo Banco 1.2 1.7Oxford Economics 1.6 1.8Raiffeisen Research 1.3 1.9Sal. Oppenheim 1.3 1.6Scotiabank 1.3 1.6Société Générale 1.3 1.5Standard Chartered 1.5 2.1UBS 1.6 2.0Unicredit 1.4 1.8SummaryMinimum 0.9 0.2Maximum 1.7 2.5Median 1.3 1.7Consensus 1.3 1.7History30 days ago 1.2 1.660 days ago 1.1 1.590 days ago 1.1 1.5Additional ForecastsEuropean Commission (Feb. 2015) 1.3 1.9ECB (Mar. 2015) 1.5 1.9IMF (Jan. 2015) 1.2 1.4

2 | Real GDP | Q1 12-Q4 16 | var. in %

4 | GDP 2016 | evolution of forecasts

1 | Real GDP | 2000-2019 | var. in %

-6

-3

0

3

6

2000 2005 2010 2015

Euro areaG7World -2

-1

0

1

2

3

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

Euro area

G7

-1

0

1

2

3


MaximumConsensusMinimum


0

1

2

3



0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

< -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 > 3.0

5 | GDP 2015 | Panelist Distribution



April 2015

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

9 | Investment | evol. of forecasts

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0


2015 2016

8 | Investment | variation in %

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

Euro areaG7

7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6


2015 2016

6 | Consumption | variation in %

-2

0

2

4

2000 2005 2010 2015

Euro area

G7

Consumption and Investment

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Allianz 1.8 1.4 1.7 2.8Banco BPI - - - -Bankia - - - -BBVA Research 1.4 1.7 0.9 4.6Berenberg 1.5 1.2 1.4 3.2Berliner Sparkasse 1.6 0.9 0.4 1.5BNP Paribas 1.8 1.4 0.4 2.1Citigroup Global Mkts 1.8 1.6 1.5 3.0Coe-Rexecode 2.0 1.9 1.2 1.5Commerzbank 1.6 1.6 1.4 2.1Credit Agricole 1.2 1.3 0.7 2.4Credit Suisse 1.7 1.6 2.1 4.0DekaBank 1.0 1.1 1.3 2.6Deutsche Bank 1.8 1.4 1.8 3.9DIW Berlin - - - -DNB 1.6 1.0 0.3 1.8DZ Bank 1.4 1.3 1.1 2.3EIU 1.3 1.0 - -Eurobank 1.2 - 0.9 -Goldman Sachs - - - -Gruppo MPS 0.8 1.1 0.5 1.6Holding Monex 1.4 1.2 2.1 0.7Ifo Institut 0.7 - 0.7 -ING - - - -Instituto Flores de Lemus 1.4 1.2 1.3 3.9Intesa Sanpaolo 1.2 1.1 1.1 2.7JPMorgan 2.1 - 1.9 -Julius Baer - - - -KBC - - - -Kiel Institute 1.3 1.5 1.5 2.7La Caixa - - - -Lloyds TSB - - - -NIBC Bank 1.1 0.6 - -Nomura 1.3 0.9 1.0 1.4Nordea - - - -Novo Banco 1.3 1.4 1.7 3.9Oxford Economics 1.8 1.5 1.0 2.8Raiffeisen Research 1.6 1.6 1.0 2.6Sal. Oppenheim 1.5 1.2 1.1 2.4Scotiabank - - - -Société Générale 1.6 1.4 1.2 2.4Standard Chartered - - - -UBS 1.5 1.6 2.1 3.6Unicredit - - - -SummaryMinimum 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.7Maximum 2.1 1.9 2.1 4.6Median 1.5 1.4 1.2 2.6Consensus 1.5 1.3 1.2 2.6History30 days ago 1.3 1.3 1.1 2.760 days ago 1.2 1.2 1.2 2.590 days ago 1.1 1.2 1.1 2.4

Consumption Investment variation in % variation in %

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from Eurostat. Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.6 Private consumption, annual variation in %. 7 Private consumption, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.9 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.



April 2015


3

4

5

6


2015 2016

13 | Imports | evol. of forecasts

-15

-5

5

15

2000 2005 2010 2015

Euro area

G7

12 | Imports | variation in %

-15

-5

5

15

2000 2005 2010 2015

Euro area

G7

10 | Exports | variation in %

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0


2015 2016

11 | Exports | evolution of fcst

Exports and Imports

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Allianz 4.3 4.2 4.6 4.4Banco BPI - - - -Bankia - - - -BBVA Research 4.8 4.9 4.8 5.0Berenberg - - - -Berliner Sparkasse 3.7 3.7 3.9 3.5BNP Paribas - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts 3.8 4.0 4.0 3.7Coe-Rexecode 4.6 5.2 4.2 5.2Commerzbank - - - -Credit Agricole 3.8 4.7 4.1 4.8Credit Suisse 4.4 5.0 4.1 5.1DekaBank 5.3 6.9 5.3 7.7Deutsche Bank 4.1 5.2 4.6 5.9DIW Berlin - - - -DNB 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.3DZ Bank 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.5EIU 3.3 3.8 3.3 3.5Eurobank 3.9 - 4.0 -Goldman Sachs - - - -Gruppo MPS 3.9 5.3 3.1 4.8Holding Monex 3.7 6.2 4.9 5.8Ifo Institut 4.4 - 4.2 -ING - - - -Instituto Flores de Lemus 5.4 4.1 5.6 3.9Intesa Sanpaolo 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.5JPMorgan 3.9 - 4.5 -Julius Baer - - - -KBC - - - -Kiel Institute 4.2 5.8 4.3 6.1La Caixa - - - -Lloyds TSB - - - -NIBC Bank - - - -Nomura 3.9 3.4 3.3 3.3Nordea - - - -Novo Banco 3.9 5.0 3.9 5.5Oxford Economics - - - -Raiffeisen Research 5.0 4.8 4.5 5.0Sal. Oppenheim 4.2 4.8 3.7 4.6Scotiabank - - - -Société Générale 4.2 4.0 3.9 4.1Standard Chartered - - - -UBS 4.0 4.4 4.2 4.9Unicredit - - - -SummaryMinimum 3.3 3.4 3.1 3.3Maximum 5.4 6.9 5.6 7.7Median 4.1 4.7 4.2 4.8Consensus 4.2 4.7 4.2 4.7History30 days ago 4.1 4.6 4.3 4.660 days ago 3.8 4.4 4.0 4.590 days ago 3.7 4.2 3.8 4.2

Exports Imports variation in % variation in %

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from Eurostat. Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 10 Real exports of goods and services, annual variation in %. 11 Exports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.12 Real imports of goods and services, annual variation in %. 13 Imports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.



April 2015


10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0


2015 2016

17 | Unemployment | evol. of forecasts

4

6

8

10

12

14

2000 2005 2010 2015

Euro area

G7

16 | Unemployment | % of active pop.

-20

-10

0

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

Euro area

G7

14 | Industry | variation in %

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0


2015 2016

15 | Industry | evolution of fcst

Industry and Unemployment

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Allianz 1.5 2.2 11.0 10.5Banco BPI - - - -Bankia - - - -BBVA Research - - 11.2 10.6Berenberg 1.0 2.0 10.9 10.2Berliner Sparkasse 0.4 1.0 11.0 10.5BNP Paribas - - 11.5 11.1Citigroup Global Mkts 1.6 3.6 10.7 9.9Coe-Rexecode - - 11.2 10.8Commerzbank - - 11.2 10.7Credit Agricole - - 11.3 10.8Credit Suisse 2.7 3.2 11.2 10.6DekaBank - - 11.0 10.3Deutsche Bank 0.7 1.6 11.0 10.3DIW Berlin - - 11.1 10.7DNB - - 11.1 10.8DZ Bank - - 11.2 11.0EIU - - 11.1 10.7Eurobank - - 11.3 -Goldman Sachs - - - -Gruppo MPS - - 11.4 11.0Holding Monex 1.7 2.5 11.4 11.4Ifo Institut - - 11.5 -ING - - - -Instituto Flores de Lemus 2.1 1.6 - -Intesa Sanpaolo 1.1 2.3 11.3 10.8JPMorgan 1.8 - 10.9 -Julius Baer - - - -KBC - - - -Kiel Institute - - 11.1 10.5La Caixa - - 10.9 10.3Lloyds TSB - - - -NIBC Bank - - 11.0 10.8Nomura - - 11.3 11.2Nordea - - - -Novo Banco - - 11.3 10.8Oxford Economics 1.7 2.3 11.1 10.6Raiffeisen Research 1.6 3.8 11.1 10.9Sal. Oppenheim - - - -Scotiabank - - - -Société Générale - - 11.2 10.9Standard Chartered - - - -UBS 1.1 2.6 11.0 10.6Unicredit - - - -SummaryMinimum 0.4 1.0 10.7 9.9Maximum 2.7 3.8 11.5 11.4Median 1.6 2.3 11.1 10.7Consensus 1.5 2.4 11.1 10.7History30 days ago 1.4 2.2 11.2 10.860 days ago 1.2 2.2 11.3 10.990 days ago 1.2 2.2 11.3 10.9

Industry Unemployment variation in % % of active pop.

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from Eurostat. Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.14 Industrial production, annual variation in %. 15 Industrial production, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months. 16 Unemployment, % of active population. 17 Unemployment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.



April 2015


93

94

95

96

97


2015 2016

21 | Public Debt | evolution of fcst

60

80

100

120

2000 2005 2010 2015

Euro area

G7

20 | Public Debt | % of GDP

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2000 2005 2010 2015

Euro area

G7

18 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP

-2.6

-2.4

-2.2

-2.0

-1.8

-1.6


2015 2016

19 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst

Fiscal Balance and Public Debt

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Allianz -2.0 -1.8 - -Banco BPI - - - -Bankia - - - -BBVA Research -2.5 -2.0 - -Berenberg -2.5 -2.2 94.0 93.2Berliner Sparkasse -2.8 -2.7 - -BNP Paribas -2.4 -2.1 97.0 96.0Citigroup Global Mkts -2.1 -1.7 94.9 93.9Coe-Rexecode -2.2 -1.8 94.2 93.9Commerzbank - - - -Credit Agricole -2.5 -2.2 94.3 93.5Credit Suisse -2.2 -1.8 - -DekaBank -2.3 -2.0 - -Deutsche Bank -2.5 -2.3 95.0 95.0DIW Berlin - - - -DNB - - - -DZ Bank -2.3 -2.0 94.8 93.8EIU -2.2 -1.9 96.1 95.9Eurobank -2.4 - - -Goldman Sachs -2.5 -1.8 - -Gruppo MPS -2.4 - 94.8 -Holding Monex - - - -Ifo Institut -2.5 - - -ING -2.3 -2.0 94.3 94.0Instituto Flores de Lemus - - - -Intesa Sanpaolo - - - -JPMorgan -2.6 - - -Julius Baer - - - -KBC - - - -Kiel Institute -2.3 -2.1 - -La Caixa - - - -Lloyds TSB - - - -NIBC Bank - - - -Nomura -2.5 -2.4 - -Nordea -2.2 -1.9 - -Novo Banco -2.4 -2.1 94.8 93.8Oxford Economics -1.9 -1.6 97.1 97.3Raiffeisen Research -2.4 -2.1 92.5 91.6Sal. Oppenheim - - - -Scotiabank - - - -Société Générale -2.2 -1.9 92.7 91.5Standard Chartered - - - -UBS -2.4 -2.0 95.4 94.7Unicredit -2.2 -1.9 94.7 94.0SummaryMinimum -2.8 -2.7 92.5 91.5Maximum -1.9 -1.6 97.1 97.3Median -2.4 -2.0 94.8 93.9Consensus -2.3 -2.0 94.8 94.1History30 days ago -2.4 -2.0 95.2 94.660 days ago -2.4 -2.1 95.1 94.590 days ago -2.4 -2.1 95.1 94.6

Fiscal Balance Public Debt % of GDP % of GDP

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from Eurostat. Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.18 Fiscal balance as % of GDP. 19 Fiscal balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months. 20 Public debt as % of GDP. 21 Public debt as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.



April 2015

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

< -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 > 0.8

Monetary Sector | Inflation

22 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | in %

24 | Inflation 2015 | evolution of fcst

23 | Inflation | Q1 12-Q4 16 | in %


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from Eurostat. Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.22 Inflation, annual average variation of harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) in %.23 Inflation, annual variation of quarterly average harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP)

in %. 24 Inflation, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.25 Inflation, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.26 Inflation, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval

in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016Allianz -0.1 1.2Banco BPI 0.2 1.5Bankia 0.0 0.7BBVA Research 0.1 1.0Berenberg 0.1 1.2Berliner Sparkasse -0.2 1.6BNP Paribas 0.0 1.0Citigroup Global Mkts 0.2 1.5Coe-Rexecode 0.2 1.1Commerzbank -0.1 1.2Credit Agricole 0.3 1.2Credit Suisse 0.1 1.2DekaBank 0.3 1.4Deutsche Bank 0.0 1.4DIW Berlin 0.2 1.0DNB 0.1 0.8DZ Bank -0.1 0.9EIU -0.2 0.8Eurobank -0.2 -Goldman Sachs 0.0 1.3Gruppo MPS 0.1 1.3Holding Monex -0.5 -0.2Ifo Institut - -ING 0.1 1.5Instituto Flores de Lemus 0.1 1.4Intesa Sanpaolo - -JPMorgan 0.1 -Julius Baer 0.2 1.6KBC 0.0 1.4Kiel Institute 0.0 1.1La Caixa 0.3 1.6Lloyds TSB -0.1 1.1NIBC Bank -0.3 0.4Nomura 0.1 0.7Nordea 0.2 1.2Novo Banco 0.4 1.0Oxford Economics -0.1 1.1Raiffeisen Research 0.1 1.4Sal. Oppenheim 0.0 1.3Scotiabank 0.0 1.1Société Générale 0.0 1.1Standard Chartered 0.2 1.7UBS 0.1 1.5Unicredit -0.1 1.2SummaryMinimum -0.5 -0.2Maximum 0.4 1.7Median 0.1 1.2Consensus 0.0 1.2History30 days ago 0.0 1.160 days ago 0.1 1.190 days ago 0.6 1.2Additional ForecastsEuropean Commission (Feb. 2015) -0.1 1.3ECB (Mar. 2015) 0.0 1.5IMF (Oct. 2014) 0.9 1.2

26 | Inflation 2015 | Panelist Distribution

Inflation | annual variation of consumer price index in %

-1

0

1

2

3



-1

0

1

2

3

4

2000 2005 2010 2015

Euro area

G7

-1

0

1

2

3



-1

0

1

2

3

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

Euro area

G7



April 2015

Monetary Sector | Interest Rates

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0


2015 2016

30 | Benchmark Rate | evolution of fcst

0

2

4

6

8

2000 2005 2010 2015

Euro areaUnited StatesJapan

29 | Benchmark Rate | in %

0

2

4

6

8

2000 2005 2010 2015

Euro areaUnited StatesJapan

27 | Policy Rate | in %

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0


2015 2016

28 | Policy Rate | evolution of fcst

ECB Refinancing Rate and 3-Month EURIBOR

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Allianz - - 0.10 0.30Banco BPI 0.05 0.05 0.01 0.07Bankia 0.05 0.05 -0.03 0.00BBVA Research 0.05 0.05 0.10 0.16Berenberg 0.05 0.05 - -Berliner Sparkasse - - - -BNP Paribas 0.05 - 0.10 -Citigroup Global Mkts 0.05 - - -Coe-Rexecode - - 0.00 0.00Commerzbank 0.05 - 0.00 -Credit Agricole 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05Credit Suisse 0.05 0.05 - -DekaBank 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00Deutsche Bank 0.05 - -0.10 -DIW Berlin - - - -DNB 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.00DZ Bank - - - -EIU - - - -Eurobank 0.05 - - -Goldman Sachs - - - -Gruppo MPS 0.05 0.05 0.01 0.08Holding Monex 0.05 0.00 0.08 0.03Ifo Institut - - - -ING 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.15Instituto Flores de Lemus - - - -Intesa Sanpaolo 0.05 0.05 0.07 0.10JPMorgan 0.05 - - -Julius Baer 0.05 0.05 - -KBC 0.05 - - -Kiel Institute 0.05 0.05 - -La Caixa 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.10Lloyds TSB 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.10NIBC Bank 0.05 0.05 - -Nomura 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00Nordea 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00Novo Banco 0.05 0.05 - -Oxford Economics - - 0.07 0.07Raiffeisen Research 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.10Sal. Oppenheim 0.05 0.05 0.02 0.02Scotiabank 0.05 0.05 - -Société Générale 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.10Standard Chartered 0.05 - 0.05 0.05UBS 0.05 0.05 -0.05 -0.05Unicredit 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05SummaryMinimum 0.05 0.00 -0.10 -0.05Maximum 0.05 0.05 0.10 0.30Median 0.05 0.05 0.03 0.05Consensus 0.05 0.05 0.03 0.06History30 days ago 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.1060 days ago 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.1090 days ago 0.05 0.06 0.08 0.15

Refinancing Rate 3-Month EURIBOR in % in %

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the European Central Bank (ECB), the Federal Reserve Board (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.27 Refinancing rate in % (eop). 28 Refinancing rate, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.29 3-month EURIBOR in % (eop). 30 3-month EURIBOR, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.



April 2015

0%

20%

40%

60%

< 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.10 1.20 1.30 1.40 > 1.40

Monetary Sector | Exchange rate

31 | Exchange Rate | USD per EUR

33 | USD per EUR 2015 | evol. of fcst

32 | Exchange Rate | USD per EUR

34 | USD per EUR 2016 | evol. of fcst

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from European Central Bank (ECB). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.31 Exchange rate, USD per EUR (eop).32 Quarterly exchange rate, USD per EUR (eop).33 Exchange rate, evolution of 2015 forecast during the last 18 months.34 Exchange rate, evolution of 2016 forecast during the last 18 months.35 Exchange rate, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast

interval in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016Allianz - -Banco BPI - -Bankia 1.00 1.10BBVA Research 1.15 1.20Berenberg - -Berliner Sparkasse - -BNP Paribas - -Citigroup Global Mkts 0.93 -Coe-Rexecode 1.00 1.09Commerzbank 1.04 -Credit Agricole 1.05 1.11Credit Suisse 1.00 -DekaBank 1.02 1.00Deutsche Bank 1.00 -DIW Berlin - -DNB - -DZ Bank - -EIU 1.03 1.06Eurobank - -Goldman Sachs - -Gruppo MPS - -Holding Monex 1.09 1.05Ifo Institut - -ING 0.95 0.90Instituto Flores de Lemus - -Intesa Sanpaolo - -JPMorgan 1.05 -Julius Baer - -KBC 0.95 -Kiel Institute 1.10 1.10La Caixa 1.04 1.06Lloyds TSB 1.07 1.15NIBC Bank 1.10 1.15Nomura 1.05 1.05Nordea 1.05 1.00Novo Banco 1.12 1.09Oxford Economics 1.01 1.01Raiffeisen Research 0.90 1.10Sal. Oppenheim - -Scotiabank 1.05 1.00Société Générale 1.00 1.00Standard Chartered 1.10 1.05UBS 1.15 1.10Unicredit 1.08 1.16SummaryMinimum 0.90 0.90Maximum 1.15 1.20Median 1.05 1.08Consensus 1.04 1.07History30 days ago 1.11 1.1160 days ago 1.13 1.1190 days ago 1.18 1.15

35 | USD per EUR 2015 | Panelist Distribution

Exchange Rate | USD per EUR

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6



0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

2000 2005 2010 2015

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6



1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16



April 2015

0%

20%

40%

60%

< 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 > 4.5

External Sector | Current Account Balance

36 | Current Account | % of GDP

38 | Current Account 2015 | evol. of fcst

37 | Curr Account | Q1 12-Q4 16 | % of GDP


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016Allianz 2.6 2.3Banco BPI - -Bankia - -BBVA Research 2.7 2.7Berenberg 2.6 2.6Berliner Sparkasse 3.3 3.4BNP Paribas 2.8 2.9Citigroup Global Mkts 2.3 2.1Coe-Rexecode 2.7 2.9Commerzbank 2.4 1.9Credit Agricole 2.3 2.2Credit Suisse - -DekaBank 2.5 2.6Deutsche Bank 2.2 2.0DIW Berlin - -DNB - -DZ Bank 2.6 2.7EIU 3.2 3.1Eurobank 2.5 -Goldman Sachs - -Gruppo MPS 2.6 -Holding Monex - -Ifo Institut 2.7 -ING - -Instituto Flores de Lemus - -Intesa Sanpaolo 2.7 2.5JPMorgan - -Julius Baer - -KBC - -Kiel Institute 2.5 2.6La Caixa - -Lloyds TSB - -NIBC Bank - -Nomura 2.9 3.1Nordea 2.9 2.7Novo Banco 2.5 2.5Oxford Economics 2.7 2.4Raiffeisen Research 2.4 2.2Sal. Oppenheim - -Scotiabank 2.5 2.2Société Générale 2.7 2.8Standard Chartered 3.1 2.9UBS 2.4 2.3Unicredit 3.0 2.9SummaryMinimum 2.2 1.9Maximum 3.3 3.4Median 2.6 2.6Consensus 2.7 2.6History30 days ago 2.7 2.560 days ago 2.6 2.590 days ago 2.5 2.5

40 | Current Account 2015 | Panelist Distribution

Current Account Balance | % of GDP

0

1

2

3

4



-2

-1

0

1

2

3

2000 2005 2010 2015

Euro area

G7

0

1

2

3

4



0

1

2

3

4

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from Eurostat. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.36 Current account balance as % of GDP.37 4-quarter moving average of current account balance as % of GDP.38 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.39 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.40 Current account balance as % of GDP, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration

of panelists in forecast interval in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

FOCUSECONOMICS Germany


April 2015

Germany

REAL SECTOR | Flash PMI rises to eight-month high in MarchMarkit’s composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in March rose to the highest level since July 2014, increasing from February’s 53.8 to 55.3. As a result, the composite PMI—the result of a survey of over 1,000 manufacturing and service businesses based in Germany—moved a bit further above the 50-threshold, where it has remained since April 2013.

March’s improvement reflects increases in both the services and the manufacturing segment. According to Markit, March’s print largely reflects faster growth of output, new orders, new export business and investment. In addition, private sector employment and work outstanding both increased and business expectations at service providers remained positive. In March, input costs rose for the first time in four months, resulting from the weaker euro and the introduction of the national minimum wage in January, and companies increased output charges.

Markit commented on the result, stating that, “[i]t looks like the German economy is entering the economic fast lane again, with survey data suggesting that we should expect another quarter of solid GDP growth.”

Germany ended 2014 on a very strong note. Private consumption was the main anchor of growth in 2014, helped by the significant decline in the global oil price. Data for Q1 are somewhat mixed, but suggest overall that Germany remains on a solid growth track. Industrial production growth moderated and exports shrank in January, but business sentiment and the composite PMI improved again in March and the consumer confidence indicator reached an over-thirteen-year high in April. Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble presented amendments to this year’s budget, the draft 2016 budget and fiscal plans up to 2019 on 18 March. The key policy measure is an increase in public investment—mainly in infrastructure—which amounts to EUR 13.5 billion until 2018, although the government remains committed to its goal of achieving a balanced budget through 2019.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists revised up Germany’s economic outlook for a third straight month on expectations that a strong labor market, lower oil prices and a weak euro will boost growth. The panel expects the economy to expand 1.8% in 2015, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2016, the panel foresees growth of 1.9%.

Inflation stood at 0.3% in March (February: +0.1% year-on-year), recording a second consecutive increase. Panelists see inflation averaging 0.3% in 2015 before rising to 1.6% in 2016.

Outlook improves


Germany

2011-13 2014-16 2017-19Population (million): 80.6 81.0 81.1GDP (EUR bn): 2,754 2,985 3,299GDP per capita (EUR): 34,183 36,832 40,687GDP growth (%): 1.3 1.8 1.6Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -0.2 0.4 0.4Public Debt (% of GDP): 77.8 72.2 67.0Inflation (%): 1.9 0.9 2.0Current Account (% of GDP): 6.5 7.5 6.1

Teresa KerstingEconomist

45

50

55

60






April 2015

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect fixed investment to expand 2.0% in 2015, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, panelists expect fixed investment to grow 3.6%.

The government expects the economy to expand 1.5% in 2015. The Central Bank foresees economic growth of 1.0% for 2015 and of 1.6% for 2016. FocusEconomics Consensus forecast panelists expect economic activity to expand 1.8% in 2015, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel forecasts GDP growth of 1.9%.

REAL SECTOR | Industrial production growth inches down in JanuaryIn January, industrial production grew a seasonally-adjusted 0.6% over the previous month, coming in below December’s 1.0% increase. The reading exceeded market expectations of a 0.5% increase slightly and represented the fifth consecutive expansion. January’s print mainly reflected that increases in the production of capital goods and construction more than compensated for contractions in the production of intermediate and consumer goods.

Compared to the same month of the previous year, industrial production rose 0.9%, which followed December’s 0.5% growth. Nevertheless, the overall trend deteriorated as annual average growth in industrial production edged down from December’s 1.5% to a 12-month low of 1.2% in January.

Forecasters polled by FocusEconomics expect that industrial production will expand 2.0% in 2015, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel sees industrial production increasing 2.4%.

OUTLOOK | Consumer confidence reaches over 13-year high The mood among German consumers improved for a sixth consecutive month. The forward-looking consumer confidence indicator published by the GfK increased from 9.7 points in March to 10.0 points for April, coming in above the 9.8 points that markets had expected. Consumer confidence has not been this high since October 2001. According to GfK, “[t]he tug of war in Europe over the future of Greece is currently having no impact whatsoever on the consumer mood of Germans. Consumers consider the German economy to be on clear upward trend based on a weak euro, which is boosting exports, and lower energy costs.”

In addition to the overall consumer confidence indicator, which estimates consumer confidence in the coming month, the GfK elaborates on three sub-indicators, which refer to the previous month. In March, households’ expectations for the overall economy recorded a fourth consecutive notable increase. GfK pointed out that, “[t]he low interest rate policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) has placed the euro under great pressure of devaluation. This has therefore significantly improved the competitiveness of German exports outside the eurozone. In addition, the effect of exceedingly low energy costs for households and companies is similar to a mini economic stimulus program.” In addition, consumers’ willingness to buy rose for a sixth straight month, reaching the highest level since December 2006, and households’ income expectations recorded a third consecutive improvement.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect private consumption to expand 2.0% in 2015, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2016, panelists see private consumption growing 1.5%.


Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally-adjusted industrial production and annual growth rate in %.Source: Federal Statistical Office and FocusEconomics calculations.

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0




%%

GfK Consumer Climate

Note: GfK Consumer Climate Index.Source: The GfK Group.

4

6

8

10

12

Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15



April 2015

OUTLOOK | Business confidence rises to eight-month high in MarchThe business confidence index, elaborated by the Ifo Institute, advanced from 106.8 in February to 107.9 in March and came in above market expectations of an increase to 107.3. Following the declines recorded between May and October of 2014, the index improved in March for a fifth consecutive month and continued to recover some of the lost ground. Now the index sits at the highest level in eight months.

According to the Institute, March’s print reflects that firms were more positive regarding both their current economic situations and future business development than in the previous month. Business climate rose in the manufacturing, wholesaling and retailing sectors but worsened in construction. Overall, the Ifo Institute commented that the reading suggests that, “[t]he German economy continues to expand.”

MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation rises in MarchConsumer prices in March rose 0.5% over the previous month, according to preliminary data released by the Federal Statistics Office (Destatis) on 30 March. The result followed February’s 1.0% increase.

In annual terms, consumer prices rose 0.3% in March, coming in above February’s mild 0.1% increase, and marking the highest print in four months. Nevertheless, annual average inflation inched down from February’s 0.7% to 0.6% in March, the lowest reading since June 2010.

Meanwhile, harmonized consumer prices rose 0.1% in annual terms, contrasting February’s 0.1% decrease. Annual average HICP inflation moderated from 0.6% in February to 0.5% in March.

The Central Bank expects inflation of 1.1% in 2015, before increasing to 1.8% in 2016. FocusEconomics panelists expect inflation to average 0.3% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month’s forecast. For 2016, panelists expect inflation to increase to 1.6%.

EXTERNAL SECTOR | Trade surplus narrows on shrinking exportsThe seasonally- and calendar-adjusted trade surplus decreased from December’s EUR 21.5 billion record-high to EUR 19.7 billion in January.

The trade surplus in January narrowed over the previous month as exports contracted at a faster pace than imports. Exports shrank a seasonally-adjusted 2.1% over the previous month, contrasting December’s 2.8% increase. Meanwhile, imports fell 0.2% in January, coming in above December’s 0.7% decline.

Compared to the same month last year, exports fell 0.6% (December: +10.0% year-on-year). Imports contracted 2.3% annually in January, contrasting December’s 4.2% rise. The 12-month sum of exports to January grew 3.5% over the same period last year and the trade surplus totaled EUR 220.9 billion, reaching yet another all-time record high.

The Federation of German Wholesale, Foreign Trade and Services (BGA) noted in a recent statement that the print reflects a disappointing start to this year, as rising exports to the U.S. and China did not compensate for lower demand from BRIC countries and economic weakness in the Euro area.

Ifo Business Climate

Note: Ifo Business Climate Index, 2000=100.Source: Ifo Business Survey.

100

105

110

115

Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15

Inflation | Consumer Price Index

Note: Month-on-month and annual consumer price index variation in %.Source: Federal Statistical Office and FocusEconomics calculations.

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0




%%

Merchandise Trade

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in EUR billion and annual variation of the12-month sum of exports and imports in %.Source: Federal Statistical Office and FocusEconomics calculations.

-10

0

10

20

30

150

170

190

210

230

Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15

Trade balance (EUR bn, left scale)Exports (yoy, right scale)Imports (yoy, right scale)

%



April 2015


Annual Data 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Real Sector Population (million) 81.8 80.3 80.5 80.8 80.9 81.1 81.1 81.1 81.1 81.1GDP per capita (EUR) 31,443 33,550 34,170 34,828 35,933 36,646 37,917 39,285 40,682 42,095GDP (EUR bn) 2,570 2,695 2,752 2,814 2,908 2,970 3,075 3,186 3,299 3,412Economic Growth (Nom. GDP, ann. var. in %) 4.7 4.8 2.1 2.3 3.3 2.1 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.4Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 4.1 3.6 0.4 0.1 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.4Domestic Demand (annual variation in %) 3.0 3.0 -0.9 0.7 1.3 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.6Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 0.6 2.3 0.7 0.8 1.2 2.0 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.2Government Consumption (ann. var. in %) 1.3 0.7 1.2 0.7 1.1 - - - - -Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) 5.1 7.3 -0.7 -0.6 3.4 2.0 3.6 3.4 3.0 2.7Exports (G&S, annual variation in %) 14.5 8.0 2.8 1.6 3.9 5.0 5.0 4.4 4.1 4.0Imports (G&S, annual variation in %) 12.9 7.2 0.0 3.1 3.4 5.2 5.6 4.7 4.5 4.7Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 10.2 7.3 -0.4 0.1 1.5 2.0 2.4 1.8 1.5 1.4Retail Sales (annual variation in %) 1.4 1.1 0.1 0.1 1.6 1.6 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.4Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 7.7 7.1 6.8 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.4 6.1 5.9 5.6Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -4.1 -0.9 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4Public Debt (% of GDP) 80.3 77.6 79.0 76.9 74.7 72.2 69.6 68.8 66.7 65.4Monetary and Financial Sector Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) 1.3 2.0 2.0 1.4 0.2 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 1.1 2.1 2.0 1.5 0.9 0.3 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.0Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %, aop) 4.9 3.5 1.4 -0.5 -1.7 - - - - -ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 1.00 1.00 0.75 0.25 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.39 0.76 1.543-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) 1.01 1.36 0.19 0.29 0.08 0.03 0.06 0.62 1.00 1.5710-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 2.89 1.78 1.18 1.94 0.54 0.56 1.04 1.38 1.79 2.27Stock Market (variation of DAX in %) 16.1 -14.7 29.1 25.5 2.7 - - - - -Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.34 1.30 1.32 1.38 1.21 1.04 1.07 1.13 1.17 1.20Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, aop) 1.33 1.39 1.29 1.33 1.33 1.08 1.06 1.10 1.15 1.19External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 5.6 6.1 6.8 6.5 7.6 7.6 7.3 6.3 6.1 6.0Current Account Balance (EUR bn) 145 165 187 182 220 226 223 201 200 203Trade Balance (EUR bn) 152 156 191 197 219 - - - - - Quarterly Data Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 1.2 1.6 1.3 1.6 2.0 2.2 1.8 2.3 1.8 1.7Economic Growth (GDP, s.a. qoq var. in %) 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4Private Consumption (s.a. qoq var. in %) 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3Fixed Investment (s.a. qoq variation in %) -1.2 1.2 1.1 0.7 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3Exports (G&S, s.a. qoq variation in %) 2.0 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6Imports (G&S, s.a. qoq variation in %) 1.3 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 0.6 0.4 1.3 1.9 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.8Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 6.6 6.3 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.3Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.5ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.053-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) 0.08 0.08 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.0610-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 0.90 0.54 0.26 0.39 0.47 0.56 0.77 0.88 1.00 1.04Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.26 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.06 1.07Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 7.7 9.2 7.8 7.6 7.5 7.8 7.3 7.3 7.2 7.5Current Account Balance (EUR bn) 56.2 67.3 56.9 55.7 55.6 59.3 55.4 55.6 55.4 58.3 Monthly Data Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 3.0 -1.7 0.3 1.2 -0.3 0.5 0.9 - - -Industrial Production (s.a. mom var. in %) 1.3 -2.6 1.2 0.4 0.1 1.0 0.6 - - -Retail Sales (annual variation in %) 1.3 -0.9 2.9 2.6 -1.3 5.2 5.0 - - -Unemployment (% of active population) 6.6 6.7 6.5 6.3 6.3 6.4 7.0 6.9 - -GfK Consumer Climate 8.9 8.9 8.6 8.4 8.5 8.7 9.0 9.3 9.7 10.0Ifo Business Climate (2000=100) 108.0 106.5 105.5 103.4 104.6 105.5 106.7 106.8 107.9 -Markit Composite PMI (50-threshold) 55.7 53.7 54.1 53.9 51.7 52.0 53.5 53.8 55.3 -Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.0 0.0 -1.1 1.0 0.5 -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.2 -0.4 0.1 0.3 -Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.34 1.32 1.26 1.25 1.25 1.21 1.13 1.12 - -Exports (s.a. mom variation in %) 3.8 -4.6 4.4 0.2 -1.5 2.8 -2.1 - - -Imports (s.a. mom variation in %) -1.7 -0.8 3.8 -2.1 1.1 -0.7 -0.2 - - -



April 2015


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis, Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.1 GDP, annual variation in %.2 Quarterly GDP (seasonally adjusted), quarter-on-quarter variation in %.3 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

< 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.8 > 2.8


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016Allianz 2.1 1.7BBVA Research 1.4 2.2Berenberg 1.8 2.3Berliner Sparkasse 1.7 1.6BNP Paribas 1.3 2.0Citigroup Global Mkts 1.9 2.1Commerzbank 1.8 1.8Credit Agricole 1.1 1.5Credit Suisse 1.8 2.2DekaBank 2.2 2.0Deutsche Bank 2.0 1.7DIW Berlin 2.2 1.9DZ Bank 1.8 1.6EIU 1.8 1.7Frontier Strategy Group 1.3 1.7Goldman Sachs 1.7 1.9HWWI 1.9 1.7Ifo Institut 1.5 -ING 1.8 2.0Intesa Sanpaolo 1.1 1.9JPMorgan 2.3 3.0Julius Baer 2.0 1.8Kiel Institute 1.8 2.0Lloyds TSB 1.8 2.1Nomura 1.7 1.5Nordea 1.7 1.6Oxford Economics 2.4 2.1Raiffeisen Research 1.6 2.2RWI 2.1 1.9Sal. Oppenheim 1.8 1.6Scotiabank 1.5 1.8UBS 2.1 2.4Unicredit 2.0 2.1SummaryMinimum 1.1 1.5Maximum 2.4 3.0Median 1.8 1.9Consensus 1.8 1.9History30 days ago 1.6 1.860 days ago 1.4 1.890 days ago 1.3 1.8Additional ForecastsCentral Bank (Dec. 2014) 1.0 1.6IMF (Jan. 2015) 1.3 1.5European Comission (Feb. 2015) 1.5 2.0

1 | Real GDP | 2000-2019 | var. in %


2 | Real GDP | Q1 12-Q4 16 | var. in %


-6

-3

0

3

6

2000 2005 2010 2015

GermanyG7World

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

GermanyG7

1

2

3

4



0

1

2

3






April 2015



1

2

3

4

5


2015 2016


-20

-10

0

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

Germany

G7


1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2


2015 2016


-2

0

2

4

2000 2005 2010 2015

Germany

G7


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Allianz 2.7 1.3 - -BBVA Research 1.5 1.8 2.0 4.0Berenberg 2.3 1.8 1.9 5.0Berliner Sparkasse 1.8 1.1 2.7 3.7BNP Paribas 1.1 0.8 0.5 4.3Citigroup Global Mkts 2.4 2.1 1.8 3.0Commerzbank 2.2 1.8 2.4 3.7Credit Agricole 1.5 1.3 - -Credit Suisse 2.3 1.9 1.3 3.4DekaBank 2.4 1.3 2.3 3.8Deutsche Bank 2.3 1.0 2.7 1.7DIW Berlin 2.4 1.4 - -DZ Bank 1.8 1.4 3.0 3.9EIU 1.7 0.9 3.0 3.0Frontier Strategy Group 1.0 1.0 - -Goldman Sachs - - - -HWWI 1.6 1.2 3.0 2.5Ifo Institut 1.7 - 2.0 -ING 1.8 1.3 1.1 2.8Intesa Sanpaolo 1.4 1.4 0.7 3.3JPMorgan - - - -Julius Baer - - - -Kiel Institute 2.7 2.2 2.8 5.7Lloyds TSB - - - -Nomura 1.9 1.2 1.3 2.7Nordea - - - -Oxford Economics 2.7 1.6 1.1 3.7Raiffeisen Research - - - -RWI 2.6 1.7 2.7 3.1Sal. Oppenheim 2.0 1.7 1.5 2.9Scotiabank - - - -UBS 2.1 1.9 3.3 6.3Unicredit - - - -SummaryMinimum 1.0 0.8 0.5 1.7Maximum 2.7 2.2 3.3 6.3Median 2.0 1.4 2.0 3.5Consensus 2.0 1.5 2.0 3.6History30 days ago 1.8 1.4 1.7 3.660 days ago 1.6 1.4 1.6 3.690 days ago 1.5 1.4 1.7 3.7


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis, Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.6 Private consumption, annual variation in %. 7 Private consumption, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.9 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.



April 2015


4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5


2015 2016


-20

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

Germany

G7


-20

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

Germany

G7


4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0


2015 2016


Exports and Imports

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Allianz 5.5 3.9 5.1 3.6BBVA Research 4.2 5.5 4.9 5.8Berenberg - - - -Berliner Sparkasse 4.7 3.6 5.5 4.9BNP Paribas - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts 3.9 3.4 4.8 4.3Commerzbank 5.9 6.4 6.3 7.3Credit Agricole 5.0 5.9 5.0 6.0Credit Suisse - - - -DekaBank 6.6 8.2 6.6 9.3Deutsche Bank 4.4 5.1 4.5 4.5DIW Berlin - - - -DZ Bank 6.2 5.2 5.9 5.8EIU 3.5 3.7 4.0 3.7Frontier Strategy Group 4.1 3.6 2.0 1.8Goldman Sachs - - - -HWWI 5.4 5.3 5.5 5.7Ifo Institut 5.2 - 5.8 -ING - - - -Intesa Sanpaolo 4.7 4.2 5.4 5.9JPMorgan - - - -Julius Baer - - - -Kiel Institute 5.6 6.3 6.8 8.3Lloyds TSB - - - -Nomura 4.4 3.2 3.8 3.7Nordea - - - -Oxford Economics 5.7 4.9 6.5 6.3Raiffeisen Research - - - -RWI 4.9 5.3 5.3 5.6Sal. Oppenheim 5.1 5.9 4.6 6.9Scotiabank - - - -UBS 4.8 4.8 5.7 6.1Unicredit - - - -SummaryMinimum 3.5 3.2 2.0 1.8Maximum 6.6 8.2 6.8 9.3Median 5.0 5.1 5.3 5.8Consensus 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.6History30 days ago 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.960 days ago 4.6 5.0 5.2 5.990 days ago 4.3 4.8 5.3 5.8


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis, Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.10 Real exports of goods and services, annual variation in %. 11 Exports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.12 Real imports of goods and services, annual variation in %. 13 Imports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.



April 2015


6.2

6.4

6.6

6.8

7.0


2015 2016


4

6

8

10

12

2000 2005 2010 2015

Germany

G7


-20

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

Germany

G7


1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5


2015 2016

15 | Industry | evol. of forecasts


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Allianz - - 6.4 6.4BBVA Research - - - -Berenberg 2.3 2.4 - -Berliner Sparkasse 2.1 1.8 6.4 6.3BNP Paribas - - 6.7 6.7Citigroup Global Mkts - - - -Commerzbank - - 6.4 6.3Credit Agricole - - - -Credit Suisse 2.6 4.2 - -DekaBank - - 6.5 6.5Deutsche Bank 1.8 1.8 6.5 6.6DIW Berlin - - 6.4 6.1DZ Bank - - 6.5 6.3EIU 1.8 1.8 - -Frontier Strategy Group 1.5 1.8 - -Goldman Sachs - - - -HWWI - - - -Ifo Institut - - 6.6 -ING - - 6.7 6.7Intesa Sanpaolo 1.5 2.0 - -JPMorgan - - - -Julius Baer - - - -Kiel Institute - - 6.4 6.2Lloyds TSB - - - -Nomura - - 6.4 6.1Nordea - - 6.6 6.5Oxford Economics 1.9 2.0 6.6 6.6Raiffeisen Research - - - -RWI - - - -Sal. Oppenheim - - 6.5 6.3Scotiabank - - - -UBS 2.2 3.8 6.5 6.4Unicredit - - - -SummaryMinimum 1.5 1.8 6.4 6.1Maximum 2.6 4.2 6.7 6.7Median 1.9 2.0 6.5 6.4Consensus 2.0 2.4 6.5 6.4History30 days ago 1.8 2.5 6.6 6.560 days ago 1.6 2.2 6.6 6.590 days ago 1.4 2.2 6.7 6.6


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis, Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland) and the Federal Labour Office (BA, Bundesagentur für Arbeit). See below for details. Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.14 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: Destatis.15 Industrial production, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months. 16 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: BA.17 Unemployment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.



April 2015


68

70

72

74

76

78


2015 2016

21 | Public Debt | evol. of forecasts

50

75

100

125

2000 2005 2010 2015

GermanyG7


-10

-5

0

5

2000 2005 2010 2015

Germany

G7


0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4


2015 2016

19 | Fiscal Balance | evol. of forecasts


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Allianz 0.7 0.5 - -BBVA Research 0.0 0.0 - -Berenberg 0.3 0.2 72.0 69.4Berliner Sparkasse 0.2 0.3 - -BNP Paribas 0.1 0.0 74.0 71.0Citigroup Global Mkts 0.3 0.2 72.1 69.6Commerzbank - - - -Credit Agricole 0.0 0.0 72.5 70.0Credit Suisse 0.3 0.5 71.9 68.9DekaBank 0.2 0.2 - -Deutsche Bank 0.6 0.7 69.3 65.8DIW Berlin 0.5 0.4 - -DZ Bank 0.2 0.4 72.0 69.5EIU 0.6 0.7 72.9 70.6Frontier Strategy Group - - - -Goldman Sachs - - 73.9 70.8HWWI 0.2 0.3 71.3 69.0Ifo Institut 0.1 - - -ING 0.5 0.5 72.0 68.5Intesa Sanpaolo - - - -JPMorgan - - - -Julius Baer - - - -Kiel Institute 0.3 0.3 70.3 67.0Lloyds TSB - - - -Nomura 0.2 0.4 71.5 68.8Nordea 0.2 0.2 73.6 72.0Oxford Economics 1.0 1.0 74.8 73.8Raiffeisen Research 0.0 0.2 72.4 69.6RWI 0.5 0.5 - -Sal. Oppenheim - - - -Scotiabank - - - -UBS 0.2 0.2 71.5 68.5Unicredit 0.3 0.3 72.2 70.6SummaryMinimum 0.0 0.0 69.3 65.8Maximum 1.0 1.0 74.8 73.8Median 0.3 0.3 72.1 69.6Consensus 0.3 0.3 72.2 69.6History30 days ago 0.2 0.2 72.7 70.460 days ago 0.1 0.2 73.1 70.790 days ago 0.1 0.1 73.5 71.2


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from Eurostat. Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.18 General government balance as % of GDP. 19 General government balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months. 20 Public debt as % of GDP.21 Public debt as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.



April 2015

Monetary Sector | Inflation and 10-Year Bond Yield

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0


2015 2016

25 | 10-year Bond Yield | evol. of forecasts

0

2

4

6

8

2000 2005 2010 2015

FranceGermanyItaly

24 | 10-year Bond Yield | 2000-2019

-1

0

1

2

3

4

2000 2005 2010 2015

Germany

G7

22 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | in %

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5


2015 2016

23 | Inflation | evol. of forecasts

Inflation and 10-Year Bond Yield

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Allianz 0.4 1.5 0.50 1.00BBVA Research 0.3 1.1 - -Berenberg 0.3 1.5 - -Berliner Sparkasse 0.2 1.9 - -BNP Paribas 0.3 1.4 - -Citigroup Global Mkts 0.7 2.1 0.20 -Commerzbank 0.5 2.4 0.60 -Credit Agricole 0.5 1.6 1.10 1.70Credit Suisse 0.0 1.3 - -DekaBank 0.4 1.6 0.55 0.90Deutsche Bank 0.0 1.5 0.40 0.50DIW Berlin 0.5 1.2 - -DZ Bank 0.4 1.6 - -EIU - - 0.30 0.50Frontier Strategy Group 0.5 1.0 - -Goldman Sachs 0.3 2.3 - -HWWI 0.8 1.6 - -Ifo Institut 0.8 - - -ING 0.7 1.8 0.60 1.35Intesa Sanpaolo - - - -JPMorgan - - 0.60 -Julius Baer 0.2 1.8 0.60 1.85Kiel Institute 0.1 1.5 0.35 0.73Lloyds TSB 0.1 1.4 - -Nomura 0.5 1.1 0.55 0.75Nordea 0.4 1.7 0.60 1.00Oxford Economics 0.1 1.6 - -Raiffeisen Research 0.0 2.6 0.40 1.00RWI 0.4 1.5 0.30 0.30Sal. Oppenheim 0.4 1.6 - -Scotiabank 0.1 1.2 - -UBS 0.1 1.4 0.90 2.00Unicredit 0.0 1.7 1.00 -SummaryMinimum 0.0 1.0 0.20 0.30Maximum 0.8 2.6 1.10 2.00Median 0.3 1.6 0.55 1.00Consensus 0.3 1.6 0.56 1.04History30 days ago 0.4 1.5 0.78 1.4860 days ago 0.5 1.6 0.99 1.5690 days ago 1.0 1.6 1.24 1.76

Prices (CPI) 10-Year Bondvariation in % Yield in %

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from Federal Statistical Office (Destatis, Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland), the German Central Bank (BBK, Deutsche Bundesbank) and the European Central Bank (ECB). See below for details. Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.22 Inflation, annual average variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %. Source: Destatis.23 Inflation, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.24 10-year benchmark bond yield (eop). Source: BBK, ECB.25 10-year benchmark bond yield, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.



April 2015

0%

20%

40%

60%

< 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 > 11.0




27 | Curr Account | Q1 12 - Q4 16 | % of GDP


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016Allianz 7.3 6.8BBVA Research 7.2 6.9Berenberg 7.5 6.9Berliner Sparkasse 7.6 7.6BNP Paribas 7.1 6.8Citigroup Global Mkts 7.5 6.0Commerzbank 8.4 8.2Credit Agricole - -Credit Suisse 7.3 7.0DekaBank 7.1 7.1Deutsche Bank 8.3 8.2DIW Berlin 8.4 8.6DZ Bank 7.2 6.5EIU 8.2 8.1Frontier Strategy Group - -Goldman Sachs - -HWWI 7.5 7.1Ifo Institut 7.4 -ING - -Intesa Sanpaolo 8.4 7.6JPMorgan - -Julius Baer - -Kiel Institute 8.2 8.0Lloyds TSB - -Nomura - -Nordea 8.0 7.7Oxford Economics 7.9 7.3Raiffeisen Research 7.0 6.5RWI 8.1 8.1Sal. Oppenheim - -Scotiabank 6.5 6.0UBS 7.5 7.3Unicredit 7.0 6.8SummaryMinimum 6.5 6.0Maximum 8.4 8.6Median 7.5 7.1Consensus 7.6 7.3History30 days ago 7.4 6.960 days ago 7.3 6.890 days ago 7.0 6.5



4

5

6

7

8

9



-2

0

2

4

6

8

2000 2005 2010 2015

Germany

G7

4

5

6

7

8

9



6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from the German Central Bank (BBK, Deutsche Bundesbank). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.26 Current account balance as % of GDP.27 4-quarter moving average of current account balance as % of GDP.28 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.29 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.30 Current account balance as % of GDP, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration




April 2015

Fact Sheet

Germany in the Region

Population | %-share in G7 GDP | %-share in G7

Germany10.9%

United States48.8%

Japan13.0%

United Kingdom

8.3%

France8.0%

Italy6.0%

Canada5.0%

Germany10.8%

United States42.4%

Japan16.9%

United Kingdom

8.6%

France8.5%

Italy8.0%

Canada4.7%

Other EU-27

30.8%

Netherlands14.1%

France7.5%

Belgium6.4%

China6.7%

Other34.5%

U.S.A.6.3%

Other EU-27

31.1%

France10.0%U.K.

7.1%Netherlands

6.9%

Other Asia ex-Japan

5.3%

China5.1%

Other28.1%

Other11.7%

Manufact. Products66.6%

Mineral Fuels14.3%

Food7.5%

Other11.6%


Food5.5%

Trade Structure

Primary markets | share in %

Primary products | share in %

Economic Structure

GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %

Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

0

20

40

60

80

1002005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Net Exports

Investment

GovernmentConsumption

PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data

Economic Infrastructure

Political Data

Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings

Strengths Weaknesses

• Ageing population• Large and powerful labor unions

..

• Persistent backwardness of eastern federal states

• Government debt and deficit below Euro area average• Innovation, research and development• Important role of export-oriented SME's (Mittelstand)

Energy (2012)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 4,804Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 13,466Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 585Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 540Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 163Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 2,389CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 788

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: Aaa StableS&P: AAA StableFitch Ratings: AAA Stable

Telecommunication (2013) Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 58.9Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 119Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 84.0Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 34.6

Transportation (2013) Airports: 539Railways (km): 41,981Roadways (km): 645,000Waterways (km): 7,467Chief Ports: Hamburg, Bremerhaven, Kiel

Official name: Federal Republic of Germany

Capital: Berlin (5.1m)Other cities: Düsseldorf (7.8m)

Frankfurt am Main (3.7m)Area (km2): 357,022Population (million, 2014 est.): 80.9Population density (per km2, 2014): 227Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): -0.2Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 80.2Illiteracy rate (%, 2003): 1.0Language: GermanMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT+1

Chancellor: Angela MerkelLast elections: 22 September 2013Next elections: September 2017Central Bank Governor: Jens Weidmann

FOCUSECONOMICS France


April 2015

France

REAL SECTOR | French GDP growth slows in Q4More complete data released by the statistical office (INSEE) confirmed that the French economy decelerated in the last quarter of 2014. In Q4, GDP increased a seasonally-adjusted 0.1% over the previous quarter, which came in below the 0.3% rise seen in Q3 and was on par with market expectations. Yea-on-year, GDP decelerated from a 0.4% increase in Q3 to 0.2% expansion in Q4. In 2014, the French economy increased 0.4%, which matched the growth rate seen in 2013.

The fourth quarter’s deceleration was the result of slower growth in domestic demand. Private consumption grew 0.2% in Q4, below the 0.3% rise in Q3. Government spending increased 0.5% in Q4, a tad below the 0.6% expansion in Q3. Meanwhile, gross fixed investment continued to contract in Q4, although at a slower pace than in Q3 (Q4: -0.5% quarter-on-quarter; Q3: -0.6% qoq).

On a positive note, the external sector improved in the last quarter of 2014 as exports of goods and services expanded a robust 2.5% over the previous quarter (Q3: +1.0% qoq), while imports increased 1.7% (Q3: +1.7% qoq). As a result, the external sector’s net contribution to overall economic growth swung from minus 0.2 percentage points in Q3 to plus 0.2 percentage points in Q4.

Outlook improves


France

2011-13 2014-16 2017-19Population (million): 63.4 64.2 65.1GDP (EUR bn): 2,088 2,178 2,357GDP per capita (EUR): 32,945 33,896 36,186GDP growth (%): 0.8 0.9 1.7Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -4.7 -4.1 -2.6Public Debt (% of GDP): 88.8 97.3 99.7Inflation (%): 1.8 0.6 1.3Current Account (% of GDP): -1.7 -1.0 -0.8



Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally-adjusted GDP and year-on-year variation in %.Source: National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

-1.5

0.0

1.5

3.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015



% %

• Following the anemic growth recorded in the final quarter of 2014, recent economic indicators signal that the economy is gradually shifting into higher gear. Industrial production expanded for a second consecutive month in January and the March Composite PMI suggests that French business activity is expanding. In addition, March sentiment surveys showed that businesses and consumers are perceiving a mild economic recovery. On the political front, the right-wing National Front (FN) made limited gains in the second-round local elections held on 29 March. Conversely, former president Nicolas Sarkozy’s Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) and its allies scored a key victory, garnering over two-thirds of the 101 departments. Although voter turnout was low, the election result represents the current electoral mood as the popularity of the Socialist Party, and particularly that of President François Hollande, is at a record low.

• The French economy is going to benefit from a stimulatory monetary policy, low oil prices and a less restrictive fiscal policy. In addition, the weaker euro is likely to boost exports to countries outside the Eurozone. FocusEconomics panelists raised their growth forecasts by 0.1 percentage points over the previous month and now expect the French economy to expand 1.0% in 2015. For 2016, panelists expect economic growth to accelerate to 1.4%.

• In February, the annual fall in consumer prices moderated compared to the previous month but inflation is likely to start rising in the coming months. Panelists foresee HICP inflation averaging 0.2% in 2015 and 1.1% in 2016.



April 2015

The government expects the economy to increase 1.0% in 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to grow 1.0% in 2015, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, panelists see economic growth at 1.4%.

REAL SECTOR | Composite PMI moderates in March, still signals expansion in business activityThe composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) elaborated by Markit moderated in March, inching down from February’s three-and-half year high 52.2 to 51.7 in March. With March’s result, the composite PMI remained for the second consecutive month above the 50-threshold that indicates expansion in business activity, after the indicator had remained in contractionary territory over the last nine months.

According to Markit, “the rate of growth eased since February and was modest overall.” As in previous surveys, business activity growth in services offset a decrease in activity in the manufacturing sector. Growth in services was solid, although slower than in the previous month. In the manufacturing sector, business activity registered a similar drop as in February. Markit reported that new businesses rose for the fourth consecutive month in March and the growth pace was the fastest since August 2011. Conversely, new export orders in the manufacturing sector continued to contract in March. Meanwhile, employment rose for the first time in 17 months, but the increase was only marginal over the previous month.

Markit concluded that, “March’s PMI data show a further tentative expansion of output in France’s private sector economy. […] However, the divergence in sector performance continued, with the service sector again shouldering the burden of expansion amid ongoing contraction in manufacturing.”

REAL SECTOR | Industrial production expands for second consecutive monthIn January, industrial production expanded a seasonally-adjusted 0.4% over the previous month, which came in below the revised 1.4% expansion tallied in December (previously reported: +1.5% month-on-month). The print, which overshot the 0.3% contraction the markets had expected, reflected a deterioration in both manufacturing and construction.

In annual terms, industrial output swung from a 0.4% contraction in December to a 0.6% increase in January, which marked the first expansion in industrial output since November 2013.

The trend appeared to have stabilized. The annual average variation in industrial production remained unchanged at December’s minus 1.0% in January.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect industrial production to increase 0.7% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel expects industrial output to expand 1.9%.

OUTLOOK | Confidence among French firms wanes somewhat in MarchThe monthly business sentiment index published by the National Statistical Institute (INSEE) inched down from February’s 100 points to 99 points in March. The reading also fell short of the 100 points the markets had expected. The


Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally-adjusted industrial production and annual growth rate in %.Source: National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) and FocusEconomics calculations.

-6.0

-3.0

0.0

3.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0




%%



40

45

50

55




April 2015

indicator has been below the long-term 100-point average—the benchmark measure the INSEE uses to distinguish between improving and worsening business expectations—in nine of the last 11 months.

March’s mild drop reflected that businesses were less optimistic regarding their own production expectations. Respondents to the March survey also signaled more pessimism regarding their own business activity compared to a year ago. Conversely, firms’ assessment regarding general production expectations improved over the previous month along with businesses’ opinions about global order books.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see fixed investment decreasing 0.4% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points over the previous month’s estimate. For 2016, the panel sees investment expanding 2.2%.

OUTLOOK | Confidence among consumers rises to highest level in over four yearsThe consumer confidence indicator elaborated by the National Statistics Institute (INSEE) rose from February’s 92 points to 93 points in March and matched market expectations. The result marked the highest level since November 2010. Despite the increase, the index is still below its long-term average of 100.

According to INSEE, March’s result reflected consumers’ more optimistic opinions regarding both their current living standards as well as their future living standards. In addition, households responded that they were more optimistic regarding their current and future savings capacity. This month’s survey also showed consumers’ more optimistic assessment regarding employment prospects and households’ intentions to buy big ticket items in the next 12 months improved over the previous month.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect private consumption to increase 1.3% in 2015, which is up 0.2 percentage points over last month’s forecast. The panel expects private consumption to accelerate to a 1.4% rise in 2016.

MONETARY SECTOR | Annual fall in consumer prices moderates in February In February, consumer prices jumped 0.7% over the previous month. The increase contrasted the 1.0% drop observed in January, which had represented the fastest monthly drop in several years and slightly overshot the 0.6% increase the markets has expected. According to the national statistical institute (INSEE), higher prices for manufactured products are due to the end of the seasonal sales as well as winter services tariffs related to the holidays.

Despite the monthly increase, consumer prices fell 0.3% in February over the same month last year, which followed the 0.4% drop observed in January. Core consumer prices, which do not consider volatile categories such as fresh food and energy prices nor regulated prices rose 0.2% over the previous month, which was up from the flat reading observed in January. Annual core inflation inched down from 0.2% in January to 0.1% in February.

Harmonized consumer prices (based on the harmonized index of consumer prices, HICP) rose 0.7% over the previous month (January: -1.1% month-on-month). Harmonized consumer prices fell 0.3% annually in February as well.


Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month variation of consumer price index in %.Source: National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE).

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0


Month-on-month (left scale) Year-on-year (right scale)

%%

Consumer Confidence

Note: Value of monthly consumer confidence index; long-term average at 100.Source: National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE).

80

85

90

95

100


Business Sentiment

Note: Value of monthly business sentiment indicator index; long-term avg. at 100.Source: National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE).

85

90

95

100

105




April 2015

Annual average HICP inflation inched down from 0.5% in January to 0.4% in February.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect HICP inflation to average 0.2% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2016, panelists project that inflation will accelerate to 1.1%.



April 2015


Annual Data 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Real Sector Population (million) 62.8 63.1 63.4 63.7 64.0 64.2 64.5 64.8 65.1 65.4GDP per capita (EUR) 31,823 32,630 32,981 33,223 33,507 33,748 34,433 35,256 36,174 37,127GDP (EUR bn) 1,997 2,058 2,090 2,115 2,143 2,168 2,222 2,286 2,356 2,429Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) 3.0 3.0 1.6 1.2 1.3 1.2 2.5 2.9 3.1 3.1Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 1.9 2.1 0.0 0.4 0.4 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.7Domestic Demand (annual variation in %) 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.5 0.4 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 1.8 0.4 -0.4 0.3 0.6 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2Government Consumption (ann. var. in %) 1.2 1.0 1.7 2.0 1.9 - - - - -Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) 1.9 2.1 0.4 -0.8 -1.6 -0.4 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3Exports (G&S, annual variation in %) 8.6 7.1 1.2 2.4 2.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.0Imports (G&S, annual variation in %) 8.5 6.5 -1.2 1.9 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.1Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 4.9 2.3 -2.6 -0.5 -1.0 0.7 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7Retail Sales (annual variation in %) 2.9 1.8 0.6 1.1 1.2 - - - - -Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 9.3 9.2 9.8 10.3 10.2 10.3 10.0 9.9 9.2 9.1Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -6.8 -5.1 -4.9 -4.1 -4.4 -4.2 -3.9 -3.0 -2.6 -2.3Public Debt (% of GDP) 81.5 85.0 89.2 92.2 95.4 97.6 98.9 99.6 99.7 99.7Monetary and Financial Sector Inflation (Core, annual variation in %, aop) 1.1 1.1 1.3 0.6 0.2 - - - - -Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, eop) 2.0 2.7 1.5 0.8 0.1 - - - - -Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, aop) 1.7 2.3 2.2 1.0 0.6 0.2 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.4Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %, eop) 2.7 5.4 2.8 0.3 -1.4 - - - - -ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 1.00 1.00 0.75 0.25 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.39 0.76 1.543-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) 1.01 1.36 0.19 0.29 0.08 0.03 0.06 0.62 1.00 1.5710-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 3.35 3.15 1.99 2.43 0.84 0.68 1.08 1.16 1.86 2.35Stock Market (variation of CAC 40 in %) -3.3 -17.0 15.2 18.0 -0.5 - - - - -Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.34 1.30 1.32 1.38 1.21 1.04 1.07 1.13 1.17 1.20Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, aop) 1.33 1.39 1.29 1.33 1.33 1.08 1.06 1.10 1.15 1.19External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -1.3 -1.7 -2.1 -1.3 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6Current Account Balance (EUR bn) -25.0 -35.0 -44.0 -28.0 -22.0 -22.0 -21.6 -21.5 -18.3 -15.4Trade Balance (EUR bn) -53.5 -76.6 -70.6 -62.3 -53.2 - - - - - Quarterly Data Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5Economic Growth (GDP, s.a. qoq var. in %) 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 10.3 10.3 10.2 10.2 10.1 10.0 10.0 10.0 9.8 9.7Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, aop) 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.053-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) 0.08 0.08 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.0610-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 1.29 0.84 0.57 0.55 0.66 0.68 0.80 0.88 0.91 1.08Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.26 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.06 1.07 Monthly Data Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15Industrial Production (annual variation in %) -0.6 0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -1.1 -2.9 -0.4 0.6 - -Industrial Production (s.a. mom var. in %) 1.4 0.5 -0.2 0.0 -0.8 -0.3 1.4 0.4 - -Unemployment (eop, % of active population) 10.2 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.2 10.3 10.3 10.2 - -Markit Composite PMI (50-threshold) 48.1 49.4 49.5 48.4 48.2 47.9 49.7 49.3 52.2 51.7Consumer Conf. (long-term avg. 100) 86 87 86 87 86 88 90 90 92 93Business Sentiment (long-term avg. 100) 98 97 96 96 98 99 99 100 100 99Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.0 -0.3 0.4 -0.4 0.0 -0.2 0.1 -1.0 0.7 -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 -0.4 -0.3 -Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %) 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 -0.4 -0.3 -Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.37 1.34 1.32 1.26 1.25 1.25 1.21 1.13 1.12 -



April 2015


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INSEE, Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.1 GDP, annual variation in %.2 Quarterly GDP (seasonally adjusted), quarter-on-quarter variation in %.3 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

< 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 > 1.7


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016Asterès 1.1 -BBVA Research 1.0 1.8Berenberg 0.8 1.4BNP Paribas 0.9 1.5Citigroup Global Mkts 1.2 1.8Coe-Rexecode 1.2 1.6Commerzbank 0.9 0.9Credit Agricole 0.9 1.2Credit Suisse 1.3 1.9DekaBank 1.0 1.4Deutsche Bank 1.1 1.6DIW Berlin 0.7 1.2DZ Bank 1.0 1.3EIU 0.9 1.2Frontier Strategy Group 0.7 1.0Goldman Sachs 1.1 1.7ING 1.3 1.6Intesa Sanpaolo 0.7 1.4JPMorgan 1.3 2.1Julius Baer 0.8 0.9Lloyds TSB 1.2 1.7Nomura 0.9 0.8Nordea 0.9 1.2OFCE 1.1 -Oxford Economics 1.2 1.7Raiffeisen Research 0.7 1.5Scotiabank 0.8 1.3Société Générale 0.8 1.3UBS 1.0 1.5Unicredit 0.9 1.5Xerfi 1.2 1.8SummaryMinimum 0.7 0.8Maximum 1.3 2.1Median 1.0 1.5Consensus 1.0 1.4History30 days ago 0.9 1.460 days ago 0.9 1.490 days ago 0.9 1.3Additional ForecastsEuropean Commission (Feb. 2015) 1.0 1.8IMF (Jan. 2015) 0.9 1.3

1 | Real GDP | 2000-2019 | var. in %


2 | Real GDP | Q1 12-Q4 16 | var. in %


-4

-2

0

2

4

6

2000 2005 2010 2015

FranceG7World -0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

France

G7

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5



0

1

2

3






April 2015



-1

0

1

2

3


2015 2016


-20

-10

0

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

France

G7


0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6


2015 2016


-2

0

2

4

2000 2005 2010 2015

France

G7


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Asterès 0.9 - -0.9 -BBVA Research 1.3 1.4 0.0 -Berenberg 1.0 1.2 -0.9 1.3BNP Paribas 1.3 1.6 -0.7 2.2Citigroup Global Mkts 1.3 1.5 -0.5 2.3Coe-Rexecode 1.7 1.5 -0.6 1.8Commerzbank - - - -Credit Agricole 1.0 1.2 -0.5 1.5Credit Suisse 1.2 1.4 1.1 4.1DekaBank - - - -Deutsche Bank 1.8 1.6 -0.4 3.4DIW Berlin - - - -DZ Bank 1.4 1.4 -0.8 1.3EIU 1.2 1.1 0.5 1.4Frontier Strategy Group 0.7 1.2 - -Goldman Sachs - - - -ING 1.5 1.3 0.0 4.2Intesa Sanpaolo 1.2 1.7 0.3 2.2JPMorgan - - - -Julius Baer - - - -Lloyds TSB - - - -Nomura 1.0 1.0 -0.5 0.7Nordea - - - -OFCE 1.3 - -1.6 -Oxford Economics 1.5 1.7 -0.2 2.1Raiffeisen Research - - - -Scotiabank - - - -Société Générale 1.4 1.5 -0.4 1.7UBS 1.1 1.5 -0.2 1.3Unicredit - - - -Xerfi 1.8 1.7 -0.5 3.3SummaryMinimum 0.7 1.0 -1.6 0.7Maximum 1.8 1.7 1.1 4.2Median 1.3 1.4 -0.5 1.9Consensus 1.3 1.4 -0.4 2.2History30 days ago 1.1 1.4 -0.3 1.860 days ago 1.1 1.4 -0.2 1.790 days ago 1.0 1.3 -0.4 1.8


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INSEE, Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.6 Private consumption, annual variation in %. 7 Private consumption, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.9 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.



April 2015


2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0


2015 2016


-20

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

France

G7


-20

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

France

G7


2

3

4

5


2015 2016


Exports and Imports

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Asterès 5.4 - 4.8 -BBVA Research 3.5 5.3 3.0 5.0Berenberg - - - -BNP Paribas - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts 4.5 4.1 3.8 2.3Coe-Rexecode 4.9 4.9 4.0 4.1Commerzbank - - - -Credit Agricole 2.1 3.1 2.9 3.4Credit Suisse - - - -DekaBank - - - -Deutsche Bank 4.3 5.0 4.1 5.4DIW Berlin - - - -DZ Bank 3.5 2.5 3.8 2.2EIU 3.0 2.9 3.1 2.6Frontier Strategy Group 3.2 3.6 2.8 2.8Goldman Sachs - - - -ING - - - -Intesa Sanpaolo 2.5 3.3 2.8 3.5JPMorgan - - - -Julius Baer - - - -Lloyds TSB - - - -Nomura 4.6 2.7 4.0 3.1Nordea - - - -OFCE 2.6 - 1.2 -Oxford Economics 3.4 3.7 2.7 3.0Raiffeisen Research - - - -Scotiabank - - - -Société Générale 4.8 4.2 4.6 4.1UBS 4.4 4.8 3.8 4.0Unicredit - - - -Xerfi 5.8 3.8 5.8 4.1SummaryMinimum 2.1 2.5 1.2 2.2Maximum 5.8 5.3 5.8 5.4Median 3.9 3.7 3.8 3.5Consensus 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.5History30 days ago 3.3 3.6 3.1 3.260 days ago 2.9 3.4 2.8 3.190 days ago 2.9 3.7 2.8 3.5


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INSEE, Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.10 Real exports of goods and services, annual variation in %. 11 Exports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.12 Real imports of goods and services, annual variation in %. 13 Imports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.



April 2015


9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0


2015 2016


4

6

8

10

12

2000 2005 2010 2015

France

G7


-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

France

G7


0

1

2

3


2015 2016



Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Asterès 0.1 - 10.6 -BBVA Research - - - -Berenberg 0.7 1.9 10.1 10.0BNP Paribas - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts - - 10.1 9.8Coe-Rexecode - - 10.2 10.1Commerzbank - - - -Credit Agricole - - - -Credit Suisse 0.9 2.5 10.2 10.0DekaBank - - - -Deutsche Bank - - 10.3 10.4DIW Berlin - - 10.3 10.1DZ Bank - - - -EIU 1.4 2.5 - -Frontier Strategy Group -0.5 0.5 10.2 10.0Goldman Sachs - - 10.5 10.1ING - - 10.2 9.5Intesa Sanpaolo 1.0 2.4 - -JPMorgan - - - -Julius Baer - - - -Lloyds TSB - - - -Nomura - - 10.4 10.1Nordea - - - -OFCE - - - -Oxford Economics 1.2 2.0 - -Raiffeisen Research - - - -Scotiabank - - - -Société Générale - - - -UBS 0.8 1.5 - -Unicredit - - - -Xerfi - - 10.1 9.7SummaryMinimum -0.5 0.5 10.1 9.5Maximum 1.4 2.5 10.6 10.4Median 0.9 2.0 10.2 10.0Consensus 0.7 1.9 10.3 10.0History30 days ago 0.8 1.9 10.4 10.360 days ago 1.0 1.9 10.3 10.190 days ago 1.1 2.0 10.3 10.1


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INSEE, Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.14 Industrial production, annual variation in %. 15 Industrial production, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months. 16 Unemployment, % of active population. 17 Unemployment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.



April 2015


90

95

100

105


2015 2016


40

60

80

100

120

2000 2005 2010 2015

France G7


-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2000 2005 2010 2015

France

G7


-5

-4

-3

-2


2015 2016



Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Asterès -4.3 - 97.0 -BBVA Research -4.3 -3.7 - -Berenberg -4.5 -3.6 99.0 100.7BNP Paribas -4.3 -4.0 98.0 99.0Citigroup Global Mkts -3.6 -3.1 97.9 97.9Coe-Rexecode -4.0 -3.7 96.8 98.3Commerzbank - - - -Credit Agricole -4.1 -3.6 97.1 97.7Credit Suisse -4.1 -3.8 95.5 96.0DekaBank -4.3 -4.0 - -Deutsche Bank -4.0 -3.4 98.7 99.1DIW Berlin - - - -DZ Bank -4.3 -4.5 98.3 100.5EIU -4.1 -3.6 98.9 101.2Frontier Strategy Group - - - -Goldman Sachs -4.3 -3.8 98.6 100.0ING -4.2 -3.8 97.5 98.7Intesa Sanpaolo - - - -JPMorgan - - - -Julius Baer - - - -Lloyds TSB - - - -Nomura -4.1 -4.4 97.3 100.1Nordea -4.1 -3.8 97.3 -OFCE -4.3 - 97.4 -Oxford Economics -4.3 -4.0 - -Raiffeisen Research -4.1 -4.1 97.1 98.2Scotiabank - - - -Société Générale -4.1 -4.0 97.7 99.2UBS -4.3 -3.9 97.1 96.9Unicredit -4.2 -4.0 97.9 99.4Xerfi -4.1 -4.4 97.0 98.0SummaryMinimum -4.5 -4.5 95.5 96.0Maximum -3.6 -3.1 99.0 101.2Median -4.2 -3.8 97.5 99.0Consensus -4.2 -3.9 97.6 98.9History30 days ago -4.3 -3.9 98.2 99.860 days ago -4.3 -3.9 98.1 100.090 days ago -4.3 -3.9 98.2 100.0


Notes and sources




April 2015


0

1

2

3

4


2015 2016


0

2

4

6

8

2000 2005 2010 2015

FranceGermanyItaly

24 | 10-year Bond Yield | 2000-2019

-1

0

1

2

3

4

2000 2005 2010 2015

France

G7

22 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | in %

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0


2015 2016



Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Asterès 0.7 - - -BBVA Research 0.1 0.9 - -Berenberg -0.1 0.8 - -BNP Paribas 0.3 1.0 - -Citigroup Global Mkts 0.2 1.5 0.40 -Coe-Rexecode 0.4 1.4 0.50 0.83Commerzbank -0.1 0.7 - -Credit Agricole 0.4 1.0 - -Credit Suisse 0.0 1.0 - -DekaBank 0.3 1.5 - -Deutsche Bank 0.1 1.1 - -DIW Berlin -0.2 1.0 - -DZ Bank -0.3 0.7 - -EIU 0.1 1.0 0.60 0.70Frontier Strategy Group - - - -Goldman Sachs 0.0 0.8 - -ING 0.0 1.4 0.80 -Intesa Sanpaolo 0.3 0.9 - -JPMorgan - - - -Julius Baer 0.6 1.3 - -Lloyds TSB 0.3 1.0 - -Nomura 0.2 0.5 - -Nordea 0.0 1.0 - -OFCE 0.8 - 1.20 -Oxford Economics 0.3 1.0 0.40 0.57Raiffeisen Research 0.2 1.3 0.50 -Scotiabank 0.1 1.1 - -Société Générale 0.2 1.0 0.50 1.00UBS 0.3 1.6 1.20 2.30Unicredit 0.1 1.0 - -Xerfi 0.3 1.0 - -SummaryMinimum -0.3 0.5 0.40 0.57Maximum 0.8 1.6 1.20 2.30Median 0.2 1.0 0.50 0.83Consensus 0.2 1.1 0.68 1.08History30 days ago 0.2 1.0 0.96 1.4560 days ago 0.3 1.0 1.27 1.7190 days ago 0.6 1.1 1.48 1.94

Prices (HICP) 10-Year Bondvariation in % Yield in %

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the Bank of France (BdF, Banque de France), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the National Statistical Institute (INSEE, Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques). See below for details. Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.22 Inflation, annual average variation of harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) in %. Source: INSEE.23 Inflation, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.24 10-year benchmark bond yield (eop). Source: ECB, BdF.25 10-year benchmark bond yield, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.



April 2015

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

< -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 > 1.0






Individual Forecasts 2015 2016Asterès - -BBVA Research -1.5 -1.5Berenberg -0.6 -0.5BNP Paribas -0.8 -1.0Citigroup Global Mkts -0.3 0.2Coe-Rexecode -0.3 -0.5Commerzbank - -Credit Agricole -1.6 -1.5Credit Suisse -0.8 -0.5DekaBank - -Deutsche Bank -0.5 -0.8DIW Berlin - -DZ Bank -1.8 -1.8EIU -0.8 -0.7Frontier Strategy Group - -Goldman Sachs -0.8 -0.8ING -1.5 -1.1Intesa Sanpaolo -1.1 -1.2JPMorgan - -Julius Baer - -Lloyds TSB - -Nomura - -Nordea -1.3 -1.7OFCE -1.0 -Oxford Economics - -Raiffeisen Research - -Scotiabank -1.4 -1.2Société Générale -0.8 -0.8UBS -1.0 -0.8Unicredit -1.6 -1.5Xerfi -0.8 -0.7SummaryMinimum -1.8 -1.8Maximum -0.3 0.2Median -0.9 -0.8Consensus -1.0 -1.0History30 days ago -1.2 -1.160 days ago -1.3 -1.390 days ago -1.3 -1.2



-3

-2

-1

0

1



-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

2000 2005 2010 2015

France

G7

-3

-2

-1

0

1



-3

-2

-1

0

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from the Bank of France (BdF, Banque de France). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.26 Current account balance as % of GDP.27 4-quarter moving average of current account balance as % of GDP.28 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.29 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.30 Current account balance as % of GDP, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration




April 2015

Fact Sheet

France in the Region


France8.0%

United States49.0%Japan

13.0%

Germany10.8%

United Kingdom

8.3%

Italy6.0%

Canada5.0%

France8.5%

United States42.4%

Japan16.9%

Germany10.8%

United Kingdom

8.6%

Italy8.0%

Canada4.7%

Other EU-27

22.7%

Germany19.5%

Belgium11.3%

Italy7.7%

Asia ex-Japan8.6%

Other30.2%

U.S.A.5.7%

Other EU-27

21.6%

Germany16.7%

Italy7.5%Belgium

7.5%

Asia ex-Japan10.2%

Other30.9%

Other4.1%


Mineral Fuels16.9%

Food8.6%

Other10.3%


Food12.8%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1202005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• Committed to fiscal consolidation • Subdued growth outlook• Moderate household debt • Large public debt• Tourist attractiveness • High structural unemployment

.

• Important exporter of commercial services and merchandise goods

• Loss of competitiveness in exporting sector

Energy (2012)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 5,076Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 10,694Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 533Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 451Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 72.3Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 1,772CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 365

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: Aa1 NegativeS&P: AA NegativeFitch Ratings: AA Stable


Transportation (2013) Airports: 464Railways (km): 29,640Roadways (km): 1,028,446Waterways (km): 8,501Chief Ports: Le Havre, Dunkirk, Marseille

Official name: French RepublicCapital: Paris (10.6m)Other cities: Marseille (2.0 m)

Lyon (1.5m)Area (km2): 643,801Population (million, 2014 est.): 64.0Population density (per km2, 2014): 99Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 0.5Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 81.7Illiteracy rate (%, 2011): < 1.0Language: FrenchMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT+1

President: François HollandeLast elections: 22 April 2012Next elections: June 2017Central Bank Governor: Christian Noyer

FOCUSECONOMICS Italy


April 2015

Italy

REAL SECTOR | Economy posts flat growth in Q4; GDP contracts in full year 2014 In Q4 2014, GDP recorded flat growth over the previous quarter in seasonally- and working-day adjusted terms, according to more detailed data released by the National Statistics Office (ISTAT) on 5 March. The reading matched the preliminary estimate and came in slightly above the 0.1% decrease observed in the third quarter. Q4’s result reflected an improvement both in domestic demand and in exports.

Growth in private consumption inched down from 0.2% in Q3 to 0.1% in Q4, while government consumption ticked up from a 0.2% increase to a 0.4% rise. In addition, fixed investment swung from a 1.0% contraction in Q3 to a mild 0.2% expansion in Q4.

On the external side of the economy, growth in exports accelerated from 0.4% in Q3 to 1.6% in Q4, while imports slowed from a 0.7% rise to a 0.3% increase. As a result, the external sector’s net contribution to overall growth improved from minus 0.1 percentage points in Q3 to plus 0.4 percentage points in Q4.

In annual terms, the economy contracted 0.5% in Q4, which matched Q3’s result but was slightly below the preliminary estimate of a 0.3% decrease. In the full year 2014, the economy contracted 0.4%, which represented an improvement compared to the 1.7% contraction registered in 2013.

According to more detailed data released on 5 March, the Italian economy recorded flat growth in the final quarter of last year, which marks an improvement after several quarters of contractions. A gradual rebound in economic indicators in recent months and a relatively stable political situation suggest that the government is in a good position to start implementing much-needed structural reforms this year. One major change has already been implemented in the banking sector. In an attempt to improve governance and increase the efficiency of the banking system, on 24 March, the parliament approved a reform to convert the country’s ten largest cooperative banks into joint stock companies. The move is expected to speed up board decision making processes and lead to increased mergers, as it puts an end to ownership limits and dismantles the previous voting system of “one-head, one-vote” which used to allow minority shareholders to block unwanted changes.

The Italian economy is expected to expand for the first time in four years in 2015. FocusEconomics panelists expect the Italian economy to expand 0.5% this year, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel sees economic growth picking up to 1.1%.

The decline in consumer prices eased from a record-low 0.6% in January to 0.1% in February. Panelists project an average inflation of 0.1% for this year, while they expect inflation to rise to 0.9% in 2016.

Outlook stable


Italy

2011-13 2014-16 2017-19Population (million): 59.5 60.2 61.0GDP (EUR bn): 1,621 1,633 1,737GDP per capita (EUR): 27,255 27,116 28,487GDP growth (%): -1.3 0.4 1.2Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -3.1 -2.7 -1.5Public Debt (% of GDP): 123 133 127Inflation (%): 2.5 0.4 1.2Current Account (% of GDP): -0.8 2.0 2.0

Cecilia SimkievichEconomist


Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally-adjusted GDP and year-on-year variation in %.Source: National Statistical Institute (Istat) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015



% %



April 2015

Business Confidence

Note: Value of monthly business confidence index.Source: National Statistical Institute (Istat).

70

80

90

100

110


The Bank of Italy expects the economy to expand 0.4% in 2015 and 1.2% in 2016. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy expanding 0.5% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2016, panelists expect the economy to expand 1.1%.

REAL SECTOR | Industrial production contracts in JanuaryIn January, industrial output fell a seasonally-adjusted 0.7% over the previous month, which contrasted the 0.4% increase tallied in December. January’s result marked the lowest reading in four months and undershot market expectations of a 0.2% rise. The result was driven by a significant contraction in manufacturing production, which had posted a mild expansion in December. Conversely, electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning, as well as mining and quarrying, recorded stronger increases in January compared to the previous month.

On an annual basis, industrial output dropped a working-day adjusted 2.2% in January, which contrasted the 0.1% increase observed in the previous month and marked a three-month low. As a result, annual average growth in industrial output declined from minus 0.7% in December to minus 1.0% in January.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect industrial production to expand 0.2% in 2015, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, panelists expect industrial output to expand 1.5%.

OUTLOOK | Business confidence jumps up in MarchThe National Institute of Statistics (Istat) composite business confidence indicator (IESE, Istat Economic Sentiment Indicator), which covers the manufacturing, construction, service and retail sectors, shot up from 97.5 points in February to 103.0 points in March.

March’s increase resulted from an improvement in all of the sectors that comprise the index. Services posted the highest increase, jumping from 100.4 points in February to 108.1 in March. Construction posted the second largest improvement, increasing from 108.5 points in February to 116.0 points in March. Finally, manufacturing output rose from February’s 100.5 points to 103.7 points.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see fixed investment posting flat growth in 2015, which is up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month’s estimate. For 2016, the panel expects fixed investment increasing 1.9%.

OUTLOOK | Consumer confidence improves in March The National Institute of Statistics’ (Istat) consumer confidence index jumped up from 107.7 points in February to 110.9 points in March. The result was in line with market expectations.

March’s strong increase reflected an improvement in all of the subcomponents that comprise the index. Consumers’ expectations regarding the country’s general economic situation improved notably. In addition, households were more upbeat regarding both their current and prospective personal economic situations. Consumer sentiment regarding employment perspectives also improved compared to the previous month, suggesting that the economy is continuing along a good path during the first months of 2015.


Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally-adjusted industrial production and annual growth rate in %.Source: National Statistical Institute (Istat) and FocusEconomics calculations.

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0




%%

Consumer Confidence

Note: Value of monthly consumer confidence index.Source: National Statistical Institute (Istat).

80

90

100

110

120




April 2015

Panelists expect private consumption to expand 0.6% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2016, panelists see private consumption growing 0.8%. MONETARY SECTOR | Fall in consumer prices eases in FebruaryConsumer prices rose 0.4% in February over the previous month, which contrasted the 0.4% drop tallied in January and overshot the 0.1% rise that the markets had expected. According to the National Statistics Institute (Instat), February’s increase mainly reflected higher prices for food and beverages, tobacco, and, to a lesser extent, transportation services. In annual terms, consumer prices dropped 0.1% in February, which was slightly above the flash estimate of a 0.2% drop, and marked a significant improvement compared to the record-low 0.6% fall tallied in January.

Core consumer prices, which exclude more volatile categories such as unprocessed food and energy, increased 0.3% over the previous month in February. The print contrasted the 0.2% decline recorded in January. Annual core inflation rose from January’s 0.3% to 0.6% in February. Finally, annual harmonized consumer prices swung from a 0.5% decline in January to a 0.1% rise in February, which marked the highest reading in three months.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation to average 0.1% in 2015, which is up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month’s projection. For 2016, panelists expect inflation to average 0.9%.


Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month var. of consumer price index in %.Source: National Statistical Institute (Istat).

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

-0.5

-0.3

0.0

0.3

0.5


Month-on-month (left scale)Year-on-year (right scale)

%%



April 2015


Annual Data 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Real Sector Population (million) 59.2 59.4 59.4 59.7 60.0 60.2 60.5 60.7 61.0 61.2GDP per capita (EUR) 27,106 27,615 27,189 26,960 26,964 26,983 27,401 27,884 28,476 29,100GDP (EUR bn) 1,604 1,639 1,615 1,609 1,617 1,625 1,658 1,694 1,736 1,781Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) 2.0 2.2 -1.5 -0.4 0.5 0.5 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.6Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 1.7 0.7 -2.8 -1.7 -0.4 0.5 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3Domestic Demand (annual variation in %) 0.7 -0.7 -4.5 -2.8 -0.6 0.3 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 1.3 0.0 -4.0 -2.8 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1Government Consumption (annual var. in %) 0.6 -1.8 -1.3 -0.3 -1.0 - - - - -Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) -0.6 -1.7 -9.4 -5.8 -3.2 0.0 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.3Exports (G&S, annual variation in %) 11.8 5.2 2.3 0.5 2.7 3.7 4.1 3.5 3.1 3.1Imports (G&S, annual variation in %) 12.4 0.5 -8.1 -2.3 1.8 2.8 3.8 3.4 3.2 3.0Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 6.7 1.2 -6.4 -3.1 -0.7 0.2 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.7Retail Sales (annual variation in %) 0.2 -0.8 -1.7 -2.1 -1.1 - - - - -Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 8.4 8.4 10.6 12.2 12.7 12.8 12.4 11.7 11.5 11.2Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -4.2 -3.5 -3.0 -2.8 -3.0 -2.8 -2.4 -1.7 -1.5 -1.5Public Debt (% of GDP) 115 116 123 129 132 134 133 130 127 125Monetary and Financial Sector Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, eop) 2.1 3.7 2.6 0.7 -0.1 - - - - -Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, aop) 1.6 2.9 3.3 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.3Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %, aop) 3.0 4.8 3.6 -1.1 -1.5 - - - - -ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 1.00 1.00 0.75 0.25 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.39 0.76 1.543-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) 1.01 1.36 0.19 0.29 0.08 0.03 0.06 0.62 1.00 1.57Benchmark BTP 10-Year Yield (%, eop) 4.71 6.74 4.50 4.09 1.88 1.45 2.00 2.28 2.41 2.44Stock Market (var. of FTSE MIB in %) -13.2 -25.2 7.8 16.6 0.2 - - - - -Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.34 1.30 1.32 1.38 1.21 1.04 1.07 1.13 1.17 1.20Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, aop) 1.33 1.39 1.29 1.33 1.33 1.08 1.06 1.10 1.15 1.19External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -3.5 -3.1 -0.4 1.0 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.8Current Account Balance (EUR bn) -55.7 -50.4 -6.9 15.5 29.3 34.2 37.1 35.0 34.5 32.5Trade Balance (EUR bn) -30.0 -25.5 9.9 29.2 42.9 - - - - - Quarterly Data Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) -0.5 -0.5 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2Economic Growth (GDP, s.a. qoq var. in %) -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3Unemployment (% of active population) 12.8 13.0 12.9 12.7 12.7 12.6 12.5 12.4 12.3 12.2Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, aop) -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.053-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) 0.08 0.08 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.06Benchmark BTP 10-Year Yield (%, eop) 2.37 1.88 1.32 1.38 1.43 1.45 1.50 1.64 1.86 2.00Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.26 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.06 1.07 Monthly Data Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 0.3 -1.6 -0.7 -2.7 -3.0 -1.9 0.1 -2.2 - -Industrial Production (s.a. mom var. in %) 0.9 -1.0 0.3 -0.9 0.0 0.3 0.4 -0.7 - -Markit/ADACI Manufacturing PMI (50-threshold) 52.6 51.9 49.8 50.7 49.0 49.0 48.4 49.9 51.9 -Retail Sales (annual variation in %) -2.7 -1.7 -3.0 -0.7 -1.0 -2.0 0.1 1.7 - -Consumer Confidence Index 103.0 102.0 99.7 99.6 99.2 98.2 97.8 101.8 107.7 110.9Economic Sentiment Indicator 95.4 98.0 91.0 90.1 92.8 91.4 93.2 94.7 97.5 103.0Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.1 -0.1 0.2 -0.4 0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.4 0.4 -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.6 -0.1 -Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %) 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.3 -0.1 -0.5 0.1 -Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.37 1.34 1.32 1.26 1.25 1.25 1.21 1.13 1.12 -



April 2015


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (Istat, Istituto Nazionale di Statistica). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.1 GDP, annual variation in %.2 Quarterly GDP (seasonally adjusted), quarter-on-quarter variation in %.3 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in


0%

20%

40%

60%

< -0.4 -0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.7 > 1.7


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016BBVA Research 0.6 1.3Berenberg 0.3 1.1BNP Paribas 0.5 1.0CER 0.9 1.3Citigroup Global Mkts 0.8 1.4Commerzbank 0.1 0.5Confindustria 0.5 1.1Credit Agricole 0.3 1.0Credit Suisse 0.7 1.6DekaBank 0.5 1.2Deutsche Bank 0.6 1.3DIW Berlin 0.0 0.5DZ Bank 0.7 1.3EIU 0.5 0.9Frontier Strategy Group 0.0 0.5Goldman Sachs 0.4 0.9Gruppo MPS 0.4 0.9ING 0.7 1.3Intesa Sanpaolo 0.4 1.0JPMorgan 0.6 1.4Julius Baer 0.4 1.2Lloyds TSB 0.6 1.3Nomura 0.1 0.3Nordea 0.5 1.1Oxford Economics 0.3 1.0Prometeia 0.7 1.4Raiffeisen Research 0.4 1.2ref. 0.7 1.1Scotiabank 0.4 0.9UBS 0.7 1.3Unicredit 0.6 1.2SummaryMinimum 0.0 0.3Maximum 0.9 1.6Median 0.5 1.1Consensus 0.5 1.1History30 days ago 0.5 1.160 days ago 0.4 1.090 days ago 0.4 0.9Additional ForecastsEuropean Commission (Feb. 2015) 0.6 1.3IMF (Jan. 2015) 0.4 0.8Central Bank (Jan. 2015) 0.4 1.2

1 | Real GDP | 2000-2019 | var. in %


2 | Real GDP | Q1 12-Q4 16 | var. in %


-6

-3

0

3

6

2000 2005 2010 2015

Italy

G7

World-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

Italy G7

-1

0

1

2



-1

0

1

2






April 2015



-1

0

1

2

3


2015 2016


-20

-10

0

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

Italy G7


0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0


2015 2016


-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

2000 2005 2010 2015

Italy G7


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016BBVA Research 0.5 0.8 -0.5 2.7Berenberg 0.5 0.7 -0.3 1.3BNP Paribas 0.5 0.6 -0.1 1.8CER 0.7 0.6 1.1 1.8Citigroup Global Mkts 1.1 0.9 0.5 2.5Commerzbank - - - -Confindustria 0.5 0.8 -0.1 1.9Credit Agricole 0.7 1.2 -0.6 2.8Credit Suisse 0.8 1.0 -0.1 2.9DekaBank - - - -Deutsche Bank 0.5 0.6 0.1 3.1DIW Berlin - - - -DZ Bank 0.8 1.2 0.2 1.2EIU 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.9Frontier Strategy Group 0.0 0.6 - -Goldman Sachs - - - -Gruppo MPS 0.6 0.6 0.4 1.7ING 0.5 0.7 -0.1 1.6Intesa Sanpaolo 0.8 1.1 -0.3 2.0JPMorgan - - - -Julius Baer - - - -Lloyds TSB - - - -Nomura 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.8Nordea - - - -Oxford Economics 0.5 0.7 -0.2 1.6Prometeia 1.1 0.8 -0.4 2.8Raiffeisen Research - - - -ref. 0.5 0.4 -0.2 1.8Scotiabank - - - -UBS 0.8 0.9 0.0 1.1Unicredit - - - -SummaryMinimum 0.0 0.4 -0.6 0.8Maximum 1.1 1.2 1.1 3.1Median 0.6 0.7 -0.1 1.8Consensus 0.6 0.8 0.0 1.9History30 days ago 0.6 0.8 -0.1 1.960 days ago 0.6 0.8 -0.2 1.690 days ago 0.5 0.7 -0.2 1.8


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (Istat, Istituto Nazionale di Statistica). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.6 Private consumption, annual variation in %. 7 Private consumption, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.9 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.



April 2015


2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0


2015 2016


-20

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

Italy G7


-20

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

Italy G7


2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5


2015 2016


Exports and Imports

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016BBVA Research 4.0 4.9 2.5 4.0Berenberg - - - -BNP Paribas - - - -CER 3.9 3.8 2.2 3.4Citigroup Global Mkts 4.2 4.3 2.9 3.3Commerzbank - - - -Confindustria 3.5 4.0 3.2 4.0Credit Agricole 2.9 4.2 3.5 5.0Credit Suisse - - - -DekaBank - - - -Deutsche Bank 4.7 5.7 3.7 5.2DIW Berlin - - - -DZ Bank 4.2 3.9 2.8 3.6EIU 3.0 3.2 2.5 2.9Frontier Strategy Group 2.7 3.0 1.3 2.0Goldman Sachs - - - -Gruppo MPS 2.5 3.6 2.4 3.2ING - - - -Intesa Sanpaolo 3.3 4.2 2.5 4.4JPMorgan - - - -Julius Baer - - - -Lloyds TSB - - - -Nomura 4.1 3.8 3.1 4.3Nordea - - - -Oxford Economics 3.9 4.0 2.8 3.9Prometeia 4.9 4.6 4.5 4.8Raiffeisen Research - - - -ref. 4.0 4.0 3.3 3.5Scotiabank - - - -UBS 3.8 4.3 2.0 3.1Unicredit - - - -SummaryMinimum 2.5 3.0 1.3 2.0Maximum 4.9 5.7 4.5 5.2Median 3.9 4.0 2.8 3.8Consensus 3.7 4.1 2.8 3.8History30 days ago 3.3 3.9 2.8 3.760 days ago 3.0 3.7 2.9 3.590 days ago 2.8 3.5 2.6 3.5


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (Istat, Istituto Nazionale di Statistica). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.10 Real exports of goods and services, annual variation in %. 11 Exports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.12 Real imports of goods and services, annual variation in %. 13 Imports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.



April 2015


11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

13.0


2015 2016


3

6

9

12

15

2000 2005 2010 2015

Italy G7


-20

-10

0

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

Italy G7


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5


2015 2016



Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016BBVA Research - - - -Berenberg -0.4 1.6 12.4 12.0BNP Paribas - - 12.9 12.7CER - - 12.3 11.9Citigroup Global Mkts - - 12.7 12.5Commerzbank - - - -Confindustria - - 12.9 12.6Credit Agricole - - 12.6 -Credit Suisse 0.6 1.8 - -DekaBank - - - -Deutsche Bank -0.9 1.5 13.1 12.9DIW Berlin - - 13.2 12.6DZ Bank - - - -EIU 0.5 1.3 13.3 12.6Frontier Strategy Group -0.1 0.7 12.6 12.2Goldman Sachs - - 12.2 11.7Gruppo MPS - - 12.7 12.5ING - - 12.6 11.9Intesa Sanpaolo 0.0 1.2 13.1 12.5JPMorgan - - - -Julius Baer - - - -Lloyds TSB - - - -Nomura - - 13.0 12.5Nordea - - - -Oxford Economics 0.8 1.9 12.7 12.4Prometeia 1.3 2.7 - -Raiffeisen Research - - - -ref. - - 12.8 12.7Scotiabank - - - -UBS -0.2 0.9 13.0 12.9Unicredit - - - -SummaryMinimum -0.9 0.7 12.2 11.7Maximum 1.3 2.7 13.3 12.9Median 0.0 1.5 12.8 12.5Consensus 0.2 1.5 12.8 12.4History30 days ago 0.1 1.5 12.8 12.560 days ago 0.1 1.2 12.8 12.590 days ago 0.3 1.4 12.7 12.5


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (Istat, Istituto Nazionale di Statistica). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.14 Industrial production, annual variation in %. 15 Industrial production, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months. 16 Unemployment, % of active population.17 Unemployment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.



April 2015


131

132

133

134

135

136


2015 2016


50

75

100

125

150

2000 2005 2010 2015

Italy G7


-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2000 2005 2010 2015

Italy G7


-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5


2015 2016



Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016BBVA Research -2.7 -2.4 - -Berenberg -2.7 -2.2 131.0 129.0BNP Paribas -2.9 -2.6 134.0 133.0CER -2.5 -1.3 133.2 131.4Citigroup Global Mkts -2.9 -2.0 - -Commerzbank - - - -Confindustria -2.7 -2.5 133.8 133.7Credit Agricole -3.0 -3.0 134.3 134.2Credit Suisse -2.7 -2.3 133.0 132.0DekaBank -2.8 -2.4 - -Deutsche Bank -2.7 -2.2 133.4 132.3DIW Berlin - - - -DZ Bank -2.7 -2.2 133.0 131.9EIU -3.0 -2.4 136.4 134.9Frontier Strategy Group - - - -Goldman Sachs -2.8 -2.2 - -Gruppo MPS -2.8 - 133.5 -ING -2.7 -2.3 133.2 132.3Intesa Sanpaolo -2.9 -2.7 135.8 134.6JPMorgan - - - -Julius Baer - - - -Lloyds TSB - - - -Nomura -2.8 -3.0 134.0 136.3Nordea -2.6 -2.0 - -Oxford Economics -2.8 -2.4 132.7 132.2Prometeia -2.9 -2.7 133.8 132.9Raiffeisen Research -2.6 -2.0 133.0 131.9ref. -2.9 -2.8 133.2 134.2Scotiabank - - - -UBS -3.0 -3.0 133.5 134.0Unicredit -2.6 -1.8 133.9 133.0SummaryMinimum -3.0 -3.0 131.0 129.0Maximum -2.5 -1.3 136.4 136.3Median -2.8 -2.4 133.5 133.0Consensus -2.8 -2.4 133.6 133.0History30 days ago -2.8 -2.4 133.8 133.460 days ago -2.8 -2.4 133.6 133.590 days ago -2.8 -2.5 133.7 133.7


Notes and sources




April 2015


1

2

3

4

5


2015 2016


0

2

4

6

8

2000 2005 2010 2015

ItalyGermanyFrance

24 | 10-year Bond Yield | 2000-2019

-1

0

1

2

3

4

2000 2005 2010 2015

Italy G7

22 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | in %

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0


2015 2016



Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016BBVA Research -0.2 0.6 - -Berenberg 0.2 1.0 - -BNP Paribas 0.0 0.7 - -CER 0.0 1.6 1.54 1.53Citigroup Global Mkts 0.2 1.0 0.95 1.06Commerzbank -0.4 0.7 - -Confindustria 0.2 0.6 - -Credit Agricole 0.4 1.0 - -Credit Suisse 0.0 0.7 - -DekaBank 0.6 1.2 - -Deutsche Bank 0.1 1.1 - -DIW Berlin 0.5 1.0 - -DZ Bank -0.6 0.4 - -EIU -0.5 0.4 - -Frontier Strategy Group - - - -Goldman Sachs 0.1 0.3 - -Gruppo MPS 0.1 1.1 1.30 1.80ING 0.1 1.1 1.35 2.10Intesa Sanpaolo 0.3 1.2 2.03 3.19JPMorgan - - - -Julius Baer 0.4 1.4 - -Lloyds TSB -0.3 0.6 - -Nomura 0.2 0.5 - -Nordea 0.1 1.1 - -Oxford Economics -0.4 0.6 1.31 1.46Prometeia -0.2 1.2 1.18 1.42Raiffeisen Research 0.0 1.1 1.10 -ref. 0.0 0.7 - -Scotiabank 0.0 0.8 - -UBS 0.6 1.6 2.30 3.40Unicredit -0.1 1.0 - -SummaryMinimum -0.6 0.3 0.95 1.06Maximum 0.6 1.6 2.30 3.40Median 0.1 1.0 1.31 1.66Consensus 0.1 0.9 1.45 2.00History30 days ago 0.0 0.9 1.60 2.1560 days ago 0.0 0.8 2.03 2.5890 days ago 0.4 0.9 2.42 2.99


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from National Statistical Institute (Istat, Istituto Nazionale di Statistica), Bank of Italy (BdI) and the European Central Bank (ECB). See below for details. Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.22 Inflation, annual average variation of harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) in %. Source: Istat.23 Inflation, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.24 10-year benchmark bond yield (eop). Source: BdI, ECB.25 10-year benchmark bond yield, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.



April 2015

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

< 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.8 2.3 2.8 3.3 3.8 > 3.8






Individual Forecasts 2015 2016BBVA Research 1.3 1.9Berenberg 2.1 2.5BNP Paribas 2.0 2.1CER 3.3 3.5Citigroup Global Mkts 1.9 2.0Commerzbank - -Confindustria 2.6 2.9Credit Agricole - -Credit Suisse 2.6 2.6DekaBank 1.8 1.8Deutsche Bank 2.5 2.7DIW Berlin - -DZ Bank 1.3 1.6EIU 1.4 1.2Frontier Strategy Group - -Goldman Sachs 1.9 2.1Gruppo MPS 1.7 -ING - -Intesa Sanpaolo 2.1 2.5JPMorgan - -Julius Baer - -Lloyds TSB - -Nomura - -Nordea 2.6 2.6Oxford Economics 2.4 2.1Prometeia 2.7 2.5Raiffeisen Research 2.2 2.1ref. - -Scotiabank 1.5 1.5UBS - -Unicredit 2.2 2.3SummaryMinimum 1.3 1.2Maximum 3.3 3.5Median 2.1 2.1Consensus 2.1 2.2History30 days ago 2.0 2.160 days ago 1.7 1.990 days ago 1.6 1.7



-1

0

1

2

3

4



-6

-3

0

3

2000 2005 2010 2015

Italy G7

-1

0

1

2

3

4



-4

-2

0

2

4

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from the Bank of Italy (BdI). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.26 Current account balance as % of GDP.27 4-quarter moving average of current account balance as % of GDP.28 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.29 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.30 Current account balance as % of GDP, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration




April 2015

Fact Sheet

Italy in the Region


Italy6.0%

United States48.8%

Japan13.0%

Germany10.9%

United Kingdom

8.3%

France8.0%

Canada5.0%

Italy8.0%

United States42.4%

Japan16.9%

Germany10.8%

United Kingdom

8.6%

France8.5%

Canada4.7%

Other EU-27

26.8%

Germany15.6%

France9.0%Netherlands

5.8%

China7.0%

Other35.8%

U.S.A.6.6%

Switzerland5.8%

Other EU-27

31.1%

Germany12.8%

France11.3%

Asia ex-Japan7.9%

Other24.4%

Other8.2%


Mineral Fuels18.8%

Food9.6%

Other9.5%


Food7.9%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1202005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• Low household indebtness• Tourist attractiveness

• Large public debt

x

• Relevance of Italian brands in highly profitable product niches

• Strong shadow and criminal economy

• Persistent divergence between North and South


Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: Baa2 StableS&P: BBB- StableFitch Ratings: BBB+ Stable


Transportation (2013) Airports: 129Railways (km): 20,255Roadways (km): 487,700Waterways (km): 2,400Chief Ports: Genoa, Gioia Tauro, La Spezia

Official name: Italian RepublicCapital: Rome (4.2m)Other cities: Milan (8.1m)

Naples (3.1m)Area (km2): 301,340Population (million, 2014 est.): 60.0Population density (per km2, 2014): 199Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 0.3Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 82.0Illiteracy rate (%, 2011): 1.0Language: ItalianMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT+1

Prime Minister: Matteo RenziLast elections: 24-25 February 2013Next elections: 2018Central Bank Governor: Ignazio Visco

FOCUSECONOMICS Spain


April 2015

Spain

REAL SECTOR | Industrial production rises in JanuaryIn January, industrial production rose 0.4% over the same month of the previous year in working-day adjusted terms, which was above the revised zero growth tallied in December (previously reported: -0.9% year-on-year). The print mainly reflected a rebound in energy production and an increase in the production of capital and intermediate goods, which was partly offset by sharp contraction in the production of consumer goods.

Annual average variation of industrial production inched down from December’s 1.3% to 1.2% in January, thereby reaching the lowest print in seven months.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see industrial production expanding 1.9% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel sees industrial output growth at 2.9%.

The Central Bank expects the economy to expand 2.8% in 2015 and 2.7% in 2016, while the government expects the economy to grow 2.0% in 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to expand 2.3% in 2015, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2016, panelists expect the economy to also increase 2.3%.

• The Spanish economy expanded for the first time in five years last year, driven mainly by a recovery in domestic demand. Renewed consumer confidence and an improving labor market are expected to carry 2014’s momentum into this year. In addition, low energy prices should boost private consumption and the country’s current account. However, some risks to Spain’s outlook still remain. The country is facing multiple elections in 2015, and general elections are due before year-end. On 22 March, the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE), led by Susana Díaz, was re-elected in Andalucía’s regional vote. While the outcome was rather unsurprising, the result signaled a potential change in Spain’s political landscape as the traditionally-dominant PSOE and the People’s Party (PP) lost 18% of the vote to emerging parties.

• Growth prospects for the Spanish economy continue to improve. FocusEconomics panelists raised their forecast for the third month in a row and see GDP expanding 2.3% in 2015, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel sees the economy also growing 2.3%.

• Harmonized consumer prices fell 0.7% in March in annual terms (February: -1.2% year-on-year), marking the ninth consecutive month of decline. Panelists foresee harmonized consumer prices falling 0.5% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. In 2016, the panel foresees harmonized inflation of 1.1%.

Outlook improves


2011-13 2014-16 2017-19Population (million): 46.7 46.4 46.1GDP (EUR bn): 1,060 1,083 1,190GDP per capita (EUR): 22,692 23,351 25,831GDP growth (%): -1.3 2.0 2.0Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -8.8 -4.5 -2.2Public Debt (% of GDP): 81.9 100.5 100.8Inflation (%): 2.3 0.1 1.3Current Account (% of GDP): -0.7 0.3 0.5

Angela BouzanisEconomist

Spain


Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation of working-day adjusted industrial production index.Source: National Statistical Institute (INE) and FocusEconomics calculations.

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0


Year-on-year

Annual average

%



April 2015

REAL SECTOR | Retail sales moderate in JanuaryIn January, retail sales rose 4.2% over the same month last year, which was below December’s 5.3% increase. December’s print had marked the highest rate since March 2007. The result was mainly a moderation in the sales of household goods and of food at general shops. On a working-day adjusted basis, retail sales expanded 4.2% over the same month last year in January (December: +6.5% yoy).

Annual average growth in retail sales increased from the previous month’s 0.9% to 1.3% in January, which marked the highest level since February 2008.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see private consumption expanding 2.7% in 2015, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel sees private consumption growth at 2.1%.

REAL SECTOR | Housing permits hit six-month high in JanuaryIn January, the Spanish Board of Architects (Colegio de Arquitectos Tecnicos) granted 3,466 new construction permits, according to data published by the Ministry of Public Works (Ministerio de Fomento). The figure was well above the 1,866 permits approved in December and marked the most permits granted since July 2014. On an annual basis, permits expanded a strong 39.0%. The print contrasted the 35.3% drop recorded in the previous month and represented the largest increase since September 2006.

As a result of the monthly figure, the moving three-month sum of permits totaled 7,481 in January, which represented a 4.9% decrease over the same period last year. The figure followed the 11.2% contraction tallied in December. The current number of permits represents a mere fraction of the 268,266 permits that were granted during the July–September 2006 peak.

Retail Sales | variation in %

Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation of retail sales.Source: National Statistical Institute (INE) and FocusEconomics calculations.

-12.0

-6.0

0.0

6.0


Year-on-year

Annual average

%

Housing Permits

Note: Monthly construction permits and three-month sum in thousands.Source: Ministry of Public Works and Spanish Board of Architects.

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15

Monthly permits (left scale)

3-month sum (right scale)



April 2015


Annual Data 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Real Sector Population (million) 46.6 46.7 46.8 46.6 46.5 46.4 46.3 46.2 46.1 45.9GDP per capita (EUR) 23,214 23,005 22,563 22,510 22,759 23,230 24,063 24,904 25,818 26,772GDP (EUR bn) 1,081 1,075 1,055 1,049 1,058 1,078 1,114 1,150 1,189 1,230Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) 0.2 -0.5 -1.9 -0.6 0.9 1.8 3.3 3.2 3.4 3.4Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 0.0 -0.6 -2.1 -1.2 1.4 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.0Domestic Demand (annual variation in %) -0.5 -2.7 -4.2 -2.7 2.3 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.1Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 0.2 -2.0 -3.0 -2.3 2.4 2.7 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.6Government Consumption (ann. var. in %) 1.5 -0.3 -3.7 -2.9 0.1 - - - - -Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) -4.9 -6.3 -8.1 -3.8 3.4 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.6Exports (G&S, annual variation in %) 9.4 7.4 1.2 4.3 4.2 5.2 5.3 5.0 4.7 4.6Imports (G&S, annual variation in %) 6.9 -0.8 -6.3 -0.5 7.6 5.6 5.1 4.6 4.3 4.1Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 0.8 -1.5 -6.6 -1.5 1.2 1.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8Retail Sales (annual variation in %) -1.8 -5.8 -7.0 -3.9 0.9 - - - - -Housing Permits (thousands) 91.7 78.3 44.2 34.3 34.9 - - - - -Home Prices (annual variation in %) -3.5 -6.8 -10.0 -4.2 -0.3 - - - - -Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 19.9 21.4 24.8 26.1 24.4 22.6 20.9 19.7 18.7 17.3Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -9.4 -9.4 -10.3 -6.8 -5.7 -4.5 -3.4 -2.6 -2.2 -1.7Public Debt (% of GDP) 60.1 69.2 84.4 92.1 98.1 101.3 102.0 101.4 101.1 99.9Monetary and Financial Sector Inflation (Core, annual variation in %, aop) 0.6 1.7 1.6 1.4 0.0 - - - - -Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, eop) 2.9 2.4 3.0 0.3 -1.1 - - - - -Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, aop) 2.0 3.1 2.4 1.5 -0.2 -0.5 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5Producer Prices (annual variation in %, aop) 3.7 6.9 3.8 0.6 -1.3 - - - - -ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 1.00 1.00 0.75 0.25 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.39 0.76 1.543-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) 1.01 1.36 0.19 0.29 0.08 0.03 0.06 0.62 1.00 1.5710-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 5.45 5.27 5.26 4.12 1.61 1.49 2.13 2.63 2.77 3.28Stock Market (variation of IBEX 35 in %) -17.4 -13.1 -4.7 21.4 3.7 - - - - -Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.34 1.30 1.32 1.38 1.21 1.04 1.07 1.13 1.17 1.20Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, aop) 1.33 1.39 1.29 1.33 1.33 1.08 1.06 1.10 1.15 1.19External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -3.9 -3.2 -0.3 1.4 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6Current Account Balance (EUR bn) -42.4 -34.0 -3.0 15.1 1.2 5.3 4.5 4.0 5.4 7.5Trade Balance (EUR bn) -52.0 -46.0 -31.0 -16.0 -24.0 - - - - - Quarterly Data Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 1.6 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.2Economic Growth (GDP, s.a. qoq var. in %) 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5Housing Permits (thousands) 9.6 7.3 - - - - - - - -Home Prices (annual variation in %) -2.6 -0.3 - - - - - - - -Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 23.7 23.7 23.7 22.8 22.2 22.1 22.0 21.1 20.6 20.0Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, aop) -0.4 -0.6 -1.1 -0.8 -0.4 0.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.053-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) 0.08 0.08 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.0610-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 2.17 1.61 1.27 1.36 1.44 1.49 1.69 1.82 1.98 2.13Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.26 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.06 1.07Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 0.9 2.5 -0.1 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.9Current Account Balance (EUR bn) 2.5 6.9 -0.2 1.1 1.9 2.8 0.6 1.1 1.4 2.4 Monthly Data Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.9 1.4 -0.1 0.0 0.4 - -Retail Sales (annual variation in %) 0.0 -0.1 -0.9 2.7 1.9 0.3 5.3 4.2 - -Housing Permits (thousands) 3.1 4.6 2.1 2.9 3.3 2.1 1.9 3.5 - -Markit PMI Composite (50-threshold) 55.2 55.7 56.9 55.3 55.5 53.8 54.3 56.9 56.0 -Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %) 0.0 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.5 -1.1 -1.5 -1.2 -0.7Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.37 1.34 1.32 1.26 1.25 1.25 1.21 1.13 1.12 -Current Account Balance (EUR bn) 0.5 1.0 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.7 4.8 - - -



April 2015


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadistica). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.1 GDP, annual variation in %.2 Quarterly GDP (seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.3 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

< 1.1 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.2 > 3.2


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016Banco BPI 2.2 2.1Bankia 2.7 2.6BBVA Research 2.7 2.7Berenberg 2.3 2.3BNP Paribas 1.9 1.8CEPREDE 2.0 2.2Citigroup Global Mkts 2.5 2.5Commerzbank 2.3 2.3Credit Agricole 1.7 1.9Credit Suisse 2.5 2.5DekaBank 2.4 2.2Deutsche Bank 2.5 2.3DIW Berlin 2.3 2.1DZ Bank 2.2 2.2EIU 2.5 2.0Frontier Strategy Group 1.6 1.6FUNCAS 3.0 2.8Goldman Sachs 2.2 2.1ING 2.5 2.1Instituto Flores de Lemus 2.7 2.5JPMorgan 2.8 3.0La Caixa 2.5 2.3Lloyds TSB 2.4 2.2Nomura 2.2 1.4Nordea 2.2 2.3Oxford Economics 2.5 2.5Raiffeisen Research 2.0 2.2Santander 2.6 2.6Scotiabank 2.0 2.2UBS 2.4 2.3Unicredit 2.4 2.2SummaryMinimum 1.6 1.4Maximum 3.0 3.0Median 2.4 2.2Consensus 2.3 2.3History30 days ago 2.1 2.160 days ago 2.0 2.190 days ago 1.8 2.0Additional ForecastsIMF (Jan. 2015) 2.0 1.8European Commission (Feb. 2015) 2.3 2.5Central Bank (Mar. 2015) 2.8 2.7

1 | Real GDP | 2000-2019 | var. in %


2 | Real GDP | Q1 12-Q4 16 | var. in %


-6

-3

0

3

6

2000 2005 2010 2015

SpainEuro areaWorld

-4

-2

0

2

4

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

SpainEuro areaWorld

0

1

2

3



0

1

2

3






April 2015



0

1

2

3

4

5


2015 2016


-20

-10

0

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

SpainEuro area


0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0


2015 2016


-4

-2

0

2

4

6

2000 2005 2010 2015

SpainEuro area


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Banco BPI 2.5 2.0 3.0 3.5Bankia - - 5.0 5.4BBVA Research 2.5 1.7 5.2 6.2Berenberg 2.5 1.7 4.0 3.8BNP Paribas 2.4 1.8 4.2 5.0CEPREDE 1.7 2.3 3.0 4.6Citigroup Global Mkts 3.3 2.4 5.3 5.3Commerzbank - - - -Credit Agricole 1.5 1.5 3.7 3.8Credit Suisse - - - -DekaBank - - - -Deutsche Bank 3.0 2.1 4.8 3.5DIW Berlin - - - -DZ Bank 3.1 2.2 3.2 1.9EIU 3.1 2.1 3.5 3.2Frontier Strategy Group 2.6 1.8 - -FUNCAS 3.5 2.9 6.6 5.6Goldman Sachs - - - -ING 3.1 2.0 4.0 4.5Instituto Flores de Lemus 3.0 2.8 3.4 4.3JPMorgan - - - -La Caixa 2.6 1.6 4.6 4.2Lloyds TSB - - - -Nomura 2.6 1.0 3.0 0.7Nordea - - - -Oxford Economics 3.0 2.7 4.0 3.5Raiffeisen Research - - - -Santander 3.1 2.6 4.6 3.7Scotiabank - - - -UBS 2.8 2.7 4.4 3.9Unicredit - - - -SummaryMinimum 1.5 1.0 3.0 0.7Maximum 3.5 2.9 6.6 6.2Median 2.8 2.1 4.0 3.9Consensus 2.7 2.1 4.2 4.0History30 days ago 2.5 2.0 3.7 3.860 days ago 2.3 2.0 3.3 3.490 days ago 2.0 1.9 3.2 3.3


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadistica). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.6 Private consumption, annual variation in %. 7 Private consumption, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.9 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.



April 2015


3

4

5

6


2015 2016


-20

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

SpainEuro area


-20

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

SpainEuro area


4.5

4.7

4.9

5.1

5.3

5.5


2015 2016


Exports and Imports

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Banco BPI 5.8 5.5 6.0 5.5Bankia 5.6 5.4 7.9 7.9BBVA Research 6.1 7.2 6.8 7.1Berenberg - - - -BNP Paribas - - - -CEPREDE 6.1 6.2 5.0 6.4Citigroup Global Mkts 5.3 5.7 6.9 7.0Commerzbank - - - -Credit Agricole 5.2 4.1 6.0 3.8Credit Suisse - - - -DekaBank - - - -Deutsche Bank 5.2 6.1 5.4 5.4DIW Berlin - - - -DZ Bank 3.5 3.5 3.8 2.6EIU 4.9 5.2 6.2 5.9Frontier Strategy Group 5.0 5.5 4.1 3.5FUNCAS 5.2 5.5 7.3 6.7Goldman Sachs - - - -ING - - - -Instituto Flores de Lemus 4.7 4.5 4.7 4.2JPMorgan - - - -La Caixa 5.2 6.0 5.5 4.9Lloyds TSB - - - -Nomura 5.4 5.2 3.5 1.7Nordea - - - -Oxford Economics 4.8 5.2 5.3 4.9Raiffeisen Research - - - -Santander 4.9 4.5 5.7 4.7Scotiabank - - - -UBS 5.2 4.2 4.8 4.2Unicredit - - - -SummaryMinimum 3.5 3.5 3.5 1.7Maximum 6.1 7.2 7.9 7.9Median 5.2 5.4 5.5 4.9Consensus 5.2 5.3 5.6 5.1History30 days ago 5.4 5.2 5.9 4.760 days ago 5.3 4.9 5.8 4.590 days ago 5.1 5.0 5.3 4.4


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadistica). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.10 Real exports of goods and services, annual variation in %. 11 Exports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.12 Real imports of goods and services, annual variation in %. 13 Imports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.



April 2015


20

22

24

26


2015 2016


5

10

15

20

25

30

2000 2005 2010 2015

SpainEuro area


-20

-10

0

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

SpainEuro area


1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5


2015 2016



Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Banco BPI - - - -Bankia 1.5 - 22.5 20.6BBVA Research - - 22.5 20.9Berenberg 1.7 2.4 22.4 20.4BNP Paribas - - 22.9 22.3CEPREDE 2.4 2.9 23.1 21.6Citigroup Global Mkts - - 22.5 20.8Commerzbank - - - -Credit Agricole - - 22.7 20.9Credit Suisse - - 22.7 21.0DekaBank - - - -Deutsche Bank - - 22.5 20.8DIW Berlin - - 22.4 20.8DZ Bank - - - -EIU 2.1 2.2 22.9 21.4Frontier Strategy Group 1.3 1.8 23.0 22.0FUNCAS 1.8 2.9 22.3 20.4Goldman Sachs - - - -ING - - 21.4 17.9Instituto Flores de Lemus 2.0 3.8 23.0 -JPMorgan - - - -La Caixa 2.4 2.8 22.7 21.5Lloyds TSB - - - -Nomura - - 23.4 22.6Nordea - - - -Oxford Economics 3.0 4.4 22.4 20.9Raiffeisen Research - - - -Santander - - 22.7 20.3Scotiabank - - - -UBS 1.3 3.2 22.7 20.7Unicredit - - - -SummaryMinimum 1.3 1.8 21.4 17.9Maximum 3.0 4.4 23.4 22.6Median 1.9 2.9 22.7 20.9Consensus 1.9 2.9 22.6 20.9History30 days ago 2.0 2.8 22.9 21.560 days ago 2.2 2.8 23.0 21.790 days ago 2.1 2.9 23.0 21.7


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadistica). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.14 Industrial production, annual variation in %.15 Industrial production, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months. 16 Unemployment, % of active population. 17 Unemployment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.



April 2015


101

102

103

104

105


2015 2016


30

50

70

90

110

2000 2005 2010 2015

Spain

Euro area


-15

-10

-5

0

5

2000 2005 2010 2015

SpainEuro area


-5.0

-4.5

-4.0

-3.5

-3.0


2015 2016



Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Banco BPI - - - -Bankia - - - -BBVA Research -4.2 -2.8 100.3 99.3Berenberg -4.4 -2.9 97.8 98.4BNP Paribas -4.8 -3.9 101.0 103.0CEPREDE -4.9 -3.8 105.5 106.6Citigroup Global Mkts -4.4 -3.2 100.0 100.2Commerzbank - - - -Credit Agricole -5.1 -3.9 102.6 104.5Credit Suisse -4.8 -3.7 101.5 102.5DekaBank -4.6 -3.8 - -Deutsche Bank -4.5 -3.7 101.5 102.0DIW Berlin - - - -DZ Bank -4.6 -3.8 101.5 103.0EIU -4.4 -3.1 99.8 100.5Frontier Strategy Group - - - -FUNCAS -4.4 -3.3 100.6 102.0Goldman Sachs -4.4 -3.0 - -ING -4.6 -3.5 102.0 102.0Instituto Flores de Lemus - - - -JPMorgan - - - -La Caixa -4.8 -3.3 100.6 99.8Lloyds TSB - - - -Nomura -4.4 -3.5 101.9 103.1Nordea -4.5 -3.7 - -Oxford Economics -4.3 -3.3 103.5 105.6Raiffeisen Research -4.3 -3.4 101.0 101.9Santander -4.2 -2.8 100.3 100.2Scotiabank - - - -UBS -4.6 -3.5 101.0 101.8Unicredit -4.5 -3.3 101.6 102.4SummaryMinimum -5.1 -3.9 97.8 98.4Maximum -4.2 -2.8 105.5 106.6Median -4.5 -3.5 101.0 102.0Consensus -4.5 -3.4 101.3 102.0History30 days ago -4.6 -3.5 101.5 102.360 days ago -4.6 -3.5 101.5 102.590 days ago -4.6 -3.6 101.7 103.2


Notes and sources




April 2015


1

2

3

4

5

6


2015 2016


0

2

4

6

2000 2005 2010 2015

SpainGermany

24 | 10-year Bond Yield | 2000-2019

-2

0

2

4

6

2000 2005 2010 2015

SpainEuro area

22 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | in %

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5


2015 2016



Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Banco BPI 0.8 1.8 1.52 2.33Bankia -0.6 1.1 1.85 2.25BBVA Research -0.4 1.4 - -Berenberg 0.1 1.5 - -BNP Paribas -0.5 0.7 - -CEPREDE -0.7 1.6 - -Citigroup Global Mkts -0.4 0.8 0.95 -Commerzbank -0.7 0.5 - -Credit Agricole -0.5 0.7 2.25 2.85Credit Suisse -0.7 1.1 - -DekaBank -0.6 0.9 - -Deutsche Bank -0.6 1.5 - -DIW Berlin -0.3 1.0 - -DZ Bank -0.6 0.7 - -EIU -0.8 1.3 1.20 -Frontier Strategy Group - - - -FUNCAS -0.5 0.8 1.79 2.26Goldman Sachs -0.7 1.1 - -ING -1.2 0.6 1.30 2.05Instituto Flores de Lemus -0.4 0.9 - -JPMorgan - - - -La Caixa -0.1 1.9 0.90 1.80Lloyds TSB -0.9 1.0 - -Nomura -0.5 0.2 - -Nordea -0.7 1.3 - -Oxford Economics -0.9 1.0 1.24 1.37Raiffeisen Research -0.3 1.9 1.10 -Santander -0.8 0.8 2.27 -Scotiabank -0.3 0.9 - -UBS -0.3 1.4 - -Unicredit -0.5 0.8 - -SummaryMinimum -1.2 0.2 0.90 1.37Maximum 0.8 1.9 2.27 2.85Median -0.5 1.0 1.30 2.25Consensus -0.5 1.1 1.49 2.13History30 days ago -0.5 1.0 1.78 2.2560 days ago -0.5 1.0 2.02 2.5590 days ago 0.2 0.8 2.33 2.86


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary and external sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadistica), the Bank of Spain (BdE, Banco de España) and the European Central Bank (ECB). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.22 Inflation, annual average variation of harmonized index of consumer price index (HICP) in %. Source: INE.23 Inflation, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.24 10-year benchmark bond yield (eop). Source: BdE, ECB.25 10-year benchmark bond yield, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.



April 2015

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

< -0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.6 > 1.6






Individual Forecasts 2015 2016Banco BPI - -Bankia 0.8 0.7BBVA Research 0.9 1.0Berenberg 0.1 0.1BNP Paribas - -CEPREDE 0.5 0.3Citigroup Global Mkts 0.3 0.3Commerzbank - -Credit Agricole 0.5 0.5Credit Suisse 0.2 0.3DekaBank 0.7 0.9Deutsche Bank 0.7 0.5DIW Berlin - -DZ Bank 1.0 1.2EIU 0.2 -0.4Frontier Strategy Group - -FUNCAS 0.8 0.5Goldman Sachs 0.0 0.0ING - -Instituto Flores de Lemus - -JPMorgan - -La Caixa 0.6 0.6Lloyds TSB - -Nomura - -Nordea 0.6 0.5Oxford Economics 0.3 0.0Raiffeisen Research 0.0 -0.1Santander 0.8 0.2Scotiabank 0.6 0.5UBS 0.1 0.2Unicredit 0.5 0.8SummaryMinimum 0.0 -0.4Maximum 1.0 1.2Median 0.5 0.5Consensus 0.5 0.4History30 days ago 0.7 0.760 days ago 0.8 0.790 days ago 0.6 0.5



-2

0

2

4

6



-12

-8

-4

0

4

2000 2005 2010 2015

SpainEuro area

-2

0

2

4

6



-4

-2

0

2

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from the Bank of Spain (BdE, Banco de España). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.26 Current account balance as % of GDP.27 4-quarter moving average of current account balance as % of GDP.28 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.29 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.30 Current account balance as % of GDP, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration




April 2015

Fact Sheet

Spain in the Region

Population | %-share in Euro area GDP | %-share in Euro area

Spain10.2%

Germany28.1%

France20.7%

Italy15.6%

Other19.1%

Netherlands6.3%

Spain14.0%

Germany24.3%

France19.2%

Italy18.0%

Other19.3%

Netherlands5.1%

Other EU-27

19.3%

Germany11.9%

France11.5%

Italy6.7%

China5.6%

LatAm7.6%

Other37.4%

Other EU-27

21.1%

France16.7%

Germany10.9%Italy

7.6%

LatAm5.4%

Other38.3%

Other5.9%


Mineral Fuels21.5%

Food10.7%

Other8.3%


Mineral Fuels6.5%

Food15.0%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

-30

0

30

60

90

1202004-06 2007-09 2010-12

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002004-06 2007-09 2010-12

Agriculture

Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• Highly developed infrastructure• Tourist potential• Close ties with Latin America • High structural unemployment

• High levels of household debt

• Ongoing external rebalancing process

• Large fiscal deficit and public debt

• Excess of unsold and unfinished housing stock

Energy (2012)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 1,547Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 6,029Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 280Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 243Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 29.3Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 1,301CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 312

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: Baa2 PositiveS&P: BBB StableFitch Ratings: BBB+ Stable


Transportation (2013) Airports: 150Railways (km): 15,293Roadways (km): 683,175Waterways (km): 1,000Chief Ports: Barcelona, Valencia, Algeciras

Official name: Kingdom of SpainCapital: Madrid (6.4m)Other cities: Barcelona (5.4m)

Valencia (2.5m)Area (km2): 505,370Population (million, 2014 est.): 46.5Population density (per km2, 2014): 92.0Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 0.8Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 81.5Illiteracy rate (%, 2010): 2.3Language:

Measures: Metric systemTime: GMT to GMT+1

Spanish, Catalan, Galician and Basque

President: Mariano Rajoy BreyLast elections: 20 November 2011Next elections: Before 20 December 2015Central Bank Governor: Luis María Linde de Castro

FOCUSECONOMICS Austria


April 2015

Austria

REAL SECTOR | PMI falls to four-month low in MarchThe manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) elaborated by Bank Austria fell from 48.7 in February to 47.7 in March, marking a four-month low. As a result, the index is further below the 50 threshold that indicates a contraction in business activity in the manufacturing sector, where it has been hovering since September of last year.

According to Bank Austria, the deterioration observed in March was driven by sharp declines in both output and new orders. The fall in production was the second strongest decline in two years, while the drop in new orders was broad-based. As a result of the decreases in new orders and output, firms continued to reduce their workforce numbers. March’s rate of decline in employment was the strongest in 2015 thus far. Regarding prices, the Bank pointed out that, “Austrian manufacturers reported a much weaker decline in input costs than in the previous month in March. The milder drop in costs was attributed by panel members to increased import prices resulting from a weak euro.”

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect gross fixed investment to expand 0.9% in 2015, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2016, the panel sees investment growth accelerating to 2.5%.

The Central Bank expects the economy to increase 0.7% in 2015. For 2016, the Bank sees economic growth picking up to 1.6%. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to grow 0.8% in 2015, which is down 0.2 percentage

Outlook moderates



Austria

2011-13 2014-16 2017-19Population (million): 8.5 8.6 8.7GDP (EUR bn): 316 336 370GDP per capita (EUR): 37,383 39,293 42,662GDP growth (%): 1.4 0.9 1.5Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -2.1 -2.0 -1.0Public Debt (% of GDP): 81.6 85.4 80.6Inflation (%): 2.7 1.3 2.0Current Account (% of GDP): 1.4 1.1 2.3

The Austrian economy barely grew in 2014, and recent economic data show that the weakness carried over into the first months of 2015. In an attempt to boost economic growth, the government announced a tax reform aimed at stimulating private consumption on 13 March. The new tax package consists of a EUR 5 billion cut in payroll taxes for those in low and middle income brackets. The government plans to finance the reform by fighting tax evasion, saving on administrative costs and raising existing tax rates on dividends. However, no new taxes on wealth or inheritances for high-income households will be introduced.

The Austrian economy is expected to expand at a moderate rate this year. The recently-announced tax reform, coupled with low energy prices, is expected to support private consumption going forward. However, FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists revised downward their GDP growth forecasts by 0.2 percentage points this month, and see the economy increasing 0.8% in 2015. For 2016, the panel sees economic growth picking up to 1.5%.

In February, HICP inflation remained stable at January’s 0.5%, which had marked an over-five-year low. Panelists expect that HICP inflation will average 0.9% this year. For 2016, the panel sees inflation rising to 1.6%.


Note: Bank Austria Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). A reading above 50 indicates an expansion in business activity while a value below 50 points to a contraction.Source: Bank Austria and Markit.

46

48

50

52

54

56




April 2015

points from last month’s estimate. For 2016, panelists expect the economy to grow 1.5%.

REAL SECTOR | Growth in industrial production eases in JanuaryIn January, industrial output rose a seasonally-adjusted 1.2% over the previous month. The result came in below December’s 1.5% increase, although it markedly overshot the flat readings posted in both October and November of last year. January’s increase was mainly the result of a strong rebound in the production of electricity and gas and in mining and quarrying. Conversely, the manufacturing and water supply categories deteriorated.

Compared to the same month of the previous year, industrial production contracted a working-day adjusted 0.1% in January, which was up from the 0.5% fall observed in December and marked the highest result in seven months. Despite January’s slight improvement, annual average growth in industrial production fell from minus 0.3% in December to minus 0.7% in January.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect industrial production to rise 1.5% this year, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2016, participants expect industrial output to pick up to 2.5%.

OUTLOOK | Consumer confidence hits an eight-month-high in MarchThe consumer confidence index elaborated by Fessel-GfK rose from February’s minus 12 points to minus 10 points in March, marking the highest print in eight months. Nevertheless, the index continues to hover below the 0-point threshold, which indicates that pessimists outnumber optimists.

March’s improvement mainly reflected consumers’ more optimistic assessments regarding both the current and prospective macroeconomic situation of the country. Households’ views regarding current and future major purchases also improved notably compared to the previous month. Conversely, inflation and unemployment expectations deteriorated compared to February.

FocusEconomics panelists expect private consumption to expand 0.7% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, panelists see private consumption rising 1.2%.


Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average variation of industrial production index in %.Source: Statistics Austria (STAT) and FocusEconomics calculations.

-4.0

0.0

4.0

8.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0



% %

Consumer Confidence

Note: Fessel-GfK Consumer Confidence Index. The 0-point threshold separates optimistic from pessimistic sentiment.Source: The Fessel-GfK Institute.

-20

-10

0

10




April 2015


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Real Sector Population (million) 8.4 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.7 8.7GDP per capita (EUR) 35,075 36,656 37,469 38,023 38,615 39,122 40,141 41,344 42,613 44,030GDP (EUR bn) 294 309 317 323 329 335 345 357 369 383Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) 2.8 4.9 2.8 1.7 2.0 1.7 3.1 3.4 3.5 3.7Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 2.0 3.1 0.9 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6Domestic Demand (annual variation in %) 0.7 2.5 0.3 -1.1 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.5Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 1.5 0.7 0.6 -0.1 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4Government Consumption (ann. var. in %) 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 - - - - -Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) -2.4 6.8 0.5 -1.5 0.5 0.9 2.5 2.1 2.1 2.0Exports (G&S, annual variation in %) 12.8 6.6 1.3 1.4 1.5 2.2 4.1 4.6 4.7 4.7Imports (G&S, annual variation in %) 11.3 6.4 0.7 -0.3 2.4 2.0 4.1 4.4 4.4 4.5Industrial Production (annual variation in %) -3.7 5.2 1.7 0.6 -0.5 1.5 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.8Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 4.4 4.2 4.4 4.9 5.7 5.2 5.2 5.0 4.9 4.9Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -4.5 -2.6 -2.3 -1.3 -2.4 -2.0 -1.5 -1.1 -1.0 -1.0Public Debt (% of GDP) 82.4 82.1 81.7 80.9 84.5 86.6 85.2 81.7 80.4 79.7Monetary and Financial Sector Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, eop) 2.2 3.4 2.9 2.0 0.8 - - - - -Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, aop) 1.7 3.6 2.6 2.1 1.5 0.9 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.1ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 1.00 1.00 0.75 0.25 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.39 0.76 1.543-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) 1.01 1.36 0.19 0.29 0.08 0.03 0.06 0.62 1.00 1.5710-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 3.38 2.93 1.74 2.28 0.71 0.44 0.59 1.38 1.95 2.43Stock Market (variation of ATX in %) 16.4 -34.9 26.9 6.1 -15.2 - - - - -Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.34 1.30 1.32 1.38 1.21 1.04 1.07 1.13 1.17 1.20Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, aop) 1.33 1.39 1.29 1.33 1.33 1.08 1.06 1.10 1.15 1.19External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 2.9 1.7 1.5 1.0 0.8 1.3 1.3 2.3 2.3 2.4Current Account Balance (EUR bn) 8.4 5.1 4.7 3.3 2.6 4.4 4.4 8.2 8.5 9.3Trade Balance (EUR bn) -1.4 -3.6 -3.2 -1.9 -2.4 - - - - - Quarterly Data Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 0.4 -0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8Economic Growth (GDP, s.a. qoq var. in %) 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, aop) 1.5 1.3 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.053-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) 0.08 0.08 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.0610-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 1.16 0.71 0.69 0.59 0.56 0.44 0.43 0.52 0.53 0.59Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.26 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.06 1.07 Monthly Data Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 1.2 -0.8 -3.1 -2.0 -2.0 -1.6 -0.5 -0.1 - -Industrial Production (s.a. mom var. in %) 1.7 -0.7 -1.5 1.1 0.0 0.0 1.5 1.2 - -Unemployment (% of active population) 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.5 - -Consumer Confidence Index -7 -8 -11 -13 -12 -11 -13 -12 -12 -10Bank Austria Manufacturing PMI (50-threshold) 50.4 50.9 50.9 47.9 46.9 47.4 49.2 48.5 48.7 47.7Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %) 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.5 0.8 0.5 0.5 -Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.37 1.34 1.32 1.26 1.25 1.25 1.21 1.13 1.12 -



April 2015


1 | Real GDP | 2000-2019 | var. in %


2 | Real GDP | Q1 12-Q4 16 | var. in % Real GDP growth in %


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.1 GDP, annual variation in %.2 Quarterly GDP (seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.3 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 Private consumption, annual variation in %.6 Private consumption, change in 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.7 Gross fixed capital formation, annual variation in %.8 Real exports of goods and services, annual variation in %.9 Real imports of goods and services, annual variation in %.

-6

-3

0

3

6

2000 2005 2010 2015

AustriaEuro areaWorld

-2

0

2

4

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

AustriaEuro areaWorld

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5



0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5




0.5

0.8

1.0

1.3

1.5


2015 2016


-2

0

2

4

2000 2005 2010 2015

Austria

Euro area

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016Commerzbank 0.8 1.2Credit Suisse 1.2 1.8DekaBank 0.5 1.3Deutsche Bank 1.2 1.8DZ Bank 1.0 1.6EIU 0.6 1.4IHS 0.8 1.6Nomura 0.7 1.2Oxford Economics 0.8 1.7Raiffeisen Research 0.7 1.8UBS 0.8 1.5Unicredit 0.9 1.5WIFO 0.5 1.3Summary Minimum 0.5 1.2Maximum 1.2 1.8Median 0.8 1.5Consensus 0.8 1.5History 30 days ago 1.0 1.660 days ago 1.0 1.690 days ago 1.0 1.6Additional Forecasts Central Bank (Dec. 2014) 0.7 1.6IMF (Oct. 2014) 1.9 1.7European Commission (Feb. 2015) 0.8 1.5



April 2015


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016Commerzbank - - - - - - - -Credit Suisse - - - - - - - -DekaBank - - - - - - - -Deutsche Bank - - - - - - - -DZ Bank 0.3 1.3 - - 1.8 4.1 1.1 3.9EIU 1.0 0.8 3.3 2.6 2.4 3.4 2.0 3.0IHS 0.9 0.9 1.0 2.7 3.4 5.1 3.8 5.0Nomura 0.9 1.4 -0.5 0.8 - - - -Oxford Economics 0.7 1.5 1.3 2.9 2.3 4.5 0.8 4.7Raiffeisen Research 1.0 1.9 -0.5 3.7 0.8 3.7 1.3 3.5UBS 0.5 1.0 0.6 3.5 2.5 4.9 2.7 5.1Unicredit - - - - - - - -WIFO 0.4 0.9 1.0 1.5 2.0 3.2 2.3 3.4SummaryMinimum 0.3 0.8 -0.5 0.8 0.8 3.2 0.8 3.0Maximum 1.0 1.9 3.3 3.7 3.4 5.1 3.8 5.1Median 0.8 1.1 1.0 2.7 2.3 4.1 2.0 3.9Consensus 0.7 1.2 0.9 2.5 2.2 4.1 2.0 4.1History30 days ago 0.8 1.1 1.3 2.2 2.2 4.2 2.1 3.760 days ago 0.8 1.2 0.9 2.4 2.1 4.2 2.1 3.890 days ago 0.8 1.1 1.3 2.5 2.5 4.4 2.5 4.0

Consumption Investment Exports Imports variation in % variation in % variation in % variation in %


-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

Austria

Euro area


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0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

Austria

Euro area


-20

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

Austria

Euro area


0

1

2

3

4


2015 2016


1

3

5

7


2015 2016

11 | Exports | evol. of forecasts

2

3

4

5

6


2015 2016



April 2015






60

70

80

90

100

2000 2005 2010 2015

Austria

Euro area

0

5

10

15

2000 2005 2010 2015

Austria

Euro area

-2.0

-1.8

-1.6

-1.4

-1.2

-1.0


2015 2016

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2000 2005 2010 2015

Austria

Euro area

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016Commerzbank - - - - - -Credit Suisse - - -1.9 -1.5 86.4 84.5DekaBank - - -2.0 -1.4 - -Deutsche Bank 5.2 5.3 -1.6 -1.2 85.0 84.0DZ Bank - - -1.6 -0.6 85.8 83.5EIU 5.2 5.2 -1.9 -1.9 86.4 86.6IHS 5.3 5.3 -2.1 -1.8 - -Nomura 5.0 5.0 -2.1 -2.1 86.5 85.9Oxford Economics 5.0 5.1 -1.8 -0.8 - -Raiffeisen Research 5.3 5.2 -2.2 -1.5 87.1 85.2UBS 5.2 5.1 -2.0 -1.4 86.4 84.5Unicredit - - -2.1 -2.0 87.8 86.6WIFO 5.3 5.3 -2.2 -1.9 87.6 86.5SummaryMinimum 5.0 5.0 -2.2 -2.1 85.0 83.5Maximum 5.3 5.3 -1.6 -0.6 87.8 86.6Median 5.2 5.2 -2.0 -1.5 86.4 85.2Consensus 5.2 5.2 -2.0 -1.5 86.6 85.2History30 days ago 5.1 5.1 -1.9 -1.3 85.9 84.660 days ago 5.1 5.1 -1.9 -1.5 86.4 85.290 days ago 5.1 5.1 -1.8 -1.3 84.9 84.0

Unemployment Fiscal Balance Public Debt% of active pop. % of GDP % of GDP

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Austrian National Bank (OeNB, Oesterreichische Nationalbank) and Eurostat. See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.10 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.11 Exports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.12 Imports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.13 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: OeNB.14 General government balance as % of GDP. Source: Eurostat.15 General government balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.16 Public debt as % of GDP. Source: Eurostat.

Unemployment, Fiscal Balance and Public Debt



April 2015

Monetary and External Sector | Inflation and Current Account Balance

17 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | in %


18 | Inflation | Q1 12-Q4 16 | in % Consumer Prices and Current Account Balance


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary and external sector data are from the Austrian National Bank (OeNB, Oesterreichische Nationalbank). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.17 Inflation, annual average variation of harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) in %.18 Inflation, annual variation of quarterly average harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP)

in %.19 Inflation, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.20 Inflation, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.21 Current account balance as % of GDP.22 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last

18 months.

0

1

2

3


Maximum

Consensus

Minimum

0

1

2

3

4

2000 2005 2010 2015

AustriaEuro area

0

1

2

3


Maximum

Consensus

Minimum

-1

0

1

2

3

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

AustriaEuro area

22 | Current Account | evol. of fcst

1

2

3

4


2015 2016

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Commerzbank 1.0 1.5 - -Credit Suisse 0.9 1.6 1.7 1.5DekaBank 1.1 1.8 - -Deutsche Bank 0.7 1.7 1.2 1.5DZ Bank 0.8 1.1 - -EIU 0.6 0.7 1.2 1.0IHS 1.1 1.8 - -Nomura 0.7 1.1 - -Oxford Economics 0.7 1.6 2.3 2.4Raiffeisen Research 0.9 2.3 -0.5 -0.5UBS 1.6 1.9 1.7 1.6Unicredit 0.9 1.6 1.5 1.7WIFO 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.0Summary Minimum 0.6 0.7 -0.5 -0.5Maximum 1.6 2.3 2.3 2.4Median 0.9 1.6 1.5 1.5Consensus 0.9 1.6 1.3 1.3History 30 days ago 1.0 1.5 1.9 2.060 days ago 1.2 1.6 2.1 2.290 days ago 1.4 1.7 2.1 2.3Additional Forecasts Central Bank (Dec. 2014) 1.4 1.5 - -IMF (Oct. 2014) 1.7 1.7 - -Euro. Comm. (Feb. 2015) 1.1 2.2 - -

Prices (HICP)var. in %

Current Acct% of GDP


-2

0

2

4

6

2000 2005 2010 2015

AustriaEuro area



April 2015

Fact Sheet

Austria in the Region


Austria3.5%

Germany30.3%

France22.5%

Italy17.0%

Spain11.2%

Other15.6%

Austria2.6%

Germany24.5%

France19.3%

Italy18.1%

Spain14.1%

Other21.4%

Switzerland5.1%

Other EU-27

29.0%

Germany42.1%

Italy6.6%

Asia ex-Japan5.2%

Other12.1%

Other EU-27

34.0%

Germany31.4%

Italy6.9%

Asia ex-Japan5.5%

Other22.2%

Other2.6%


Ores & Metals5.3%

Mineral Fuels12.4%

Food7.4%

Other12.5%


Food7.1%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

0

20

40

60

80

1002005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• Low household debt • Population challenges• Low unemployment

.

• Dependance on Germany and Central European economies

• Manufacturing competitiveness and high labor productivity

• Banking sector vulnerable to Central and Eastern European economies

Energy (2012)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 597Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 1,494Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 64.9Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 64.0Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 29.5Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 260CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 66.7

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: Aaa StableS&P: AA+ StableFitch Ratings: AA+ Stable


Transportation (2013) Airports: 52Railways (km): 6,399Roadways (km): 124,508Waterways (km): 358Chief Ports: Vienna, Krems, Linz

Official name: Federal Republic of Austria

Capital: Vienna (2.4m)Other cities: Linz (0.6m)

Graz (0.4m)Area (km2): 83,871Population (million, 2014 est.): 8.5Population density (per km2, 2014): 102Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 0.2Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 79.9Illiteracy rate (%, 2011): 2.0Language: GermanMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT+1

Chancellor: Werner FaymannLast elections: 29 September 2013Next elections: September 2017Central Bank Governor: Ewald Nowotny

FOCUSECONOMICS Belgium


April 2015

Belgium

REAL SECTOR | Industrial production expands in JanuaryIn January, industrial production rose a seasonally-adjusted 0.9% over the previous month. The reading contrasted the notable 1.8% contraction registered in December. January’s result reflected a broad-based improvement across industries.

In year-on-year terms, industrial production fell 1.4%, which marked a deterioration over December’s 0.7% contraction. As a result of this deceleration, annual average growth in industrial output ticked down from 0.8% in December to 0.4% in January.

The Federal Planning Bureau (FPB) expects the economy to increase 1.0% in 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to expand 1.2% in 2015, which is unchanged over the previous month’s Consensus. For 2016, the panel expects economic growth to pick up to 1.6%.

OUTLOOK | Business confidence improves, while consumer confidence worsens in MarchThe business confidence index elaborated by the National Bank of Belgium (NBB) improved from February’s minus 8.3 points to minus 6.3 points in March. The reading came in above the minus 7.5 points that the markets had expected and marked a four-month high. According to the NBB, the result was due to a broad-based improvement in confidence.

Outlook stable



Belgium


• After two years of muted growth, Belgium’s economy strengthened in 2014, recording the strongest expansion since 2011. Recent data suggest that growth will continue to pick up pace this year, albeit modestly. Industrial production expanded in January and business confidence rose for the second straight month in March. However, unemployment remains relatively high and consumer sentiment deteriorated in March.

• Looking forward, low oil prices should boost private consumption. However, fiscal consolidation and subdued levels of external demand will weigh on the pace of growth. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP growing 1.2% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2016, panelists expect GDP to expand 1.6%.

• Harmonized consumer prices fell 0.4% in February over the same month of the previous year (January: -0.6% year-on-year). Inflationary pressures are expected to remain subdued due to the drop in energy prices and muted wage growth. Panelists expect HICP inflation to average 0.2% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel sees inflation at 1.4%.


Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average variation of industrial production index in %.Source: Statistics Belgium and FocusEconomics calculations.

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Month-on-month Year-on-year

% %



April 2015

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect fixed investment to expand 1.7% in 2015, which is down 1.4 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2016, the panel sees fixed investment growing at 2.7%.

The consumer confidence index elaborated by the NBB fell for the first time in four months from minus 5.0 points in February to minus 6.0 points in March. According to the NBB, consumers have become more pessimistic regarding the future economic situation in Belgium. In addition, the Bank pointed out that, “the fear of a rise in unemployment has grown somewhat for the first time in six months.” However, expectations regarding households’ saving capacity improvement for the fourth month in a row.

FocusEconomics panelists expect private consumption to grow 1.2% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. For 2016, the panel expects private consumption to grow 1.3%.

Leading indicators

Note: Business and consumer confidence indicators.Source: National Bank of Belgium (NBB).

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0


Business confidence Consumer confidence



April 2015


Annual Data 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Real Sector Population (million) 10.8 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.5GDP per capita (EUR) 33,740 34,543 34,995 35,410 35,946 36,307 37,170 38,151 39,253 40,418GDP (EUR bn) 366 380 388 395 402 407 419 433 448 464Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) 4.6 3.9 2.2 1.8 1.8 1.4 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.6Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 2.5 1.7 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.9Domestic Demand (annual variation in %) 2.0 2.1 -0.3 -1.1 0.0 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 2.8 0.6 0.8 0.3 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.7Government Consumption (ann. var. in %) 1.2 0.8 1.4 1.1 0.4 - - - - -Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) -0.1 4.0 0.0 -2.2 4.8 1.7 2.7 3.1 3.3 3.5Exports (G&S, annual variation in %) 10.0 6.6 1.9 2.9 3.3 3.1 4.5 3.8 3.6 3.4Imports (G&S, annual variation in %) 9.6 7.4 1.8 1.7 2.9 3.1 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.8Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 11.3 3.9 -2.2 0.7 0.8 1.5 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 8.3 7.2 7.6 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.2 7.9 7.7 7.7Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -4.0 -3.9 -4.1 -2.9 -3.1 -2.6 -2.2 -1.5 -1.3 -1.3Public Debt (% of GDP) 99.6 102.1 104.0 104.5 106.7 107.4 107.2 106.0 104.2 101.9Monetary and Financial Sector Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, eop) 3.4 3.2 2.1 1.2 -0.4 - - - - -Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, aop) 2.3 3.4 2.6 1.2 0.5 0.2 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.7ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 1.00 1.00 0.75 0.25 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.39 0.76 1.543-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) 1.01 1.36 0.19 0.29 0.08 0.03 0.06 0.62 1.00 1.5710-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 3.93 4.30 2.19 2.46 1.00 0.81 1.55 2.55 2.34 2.69Stock Market (variation of BEL20 in %) 2.7 -19.2 18.8 18.1 12.4 - - - - -Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.34 1.30 1.32 1.38 1.21 1.04 1.07 1.13 1.17 1.20Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, aop) 1.33 1.39 1.29 1.33 1.33 1.08 1.06 1.10 1.15 1.19External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 1.8 -1.1 -0.7 0.1 1.6 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.3Current Account Balance (EUR bn) 6.4 -4.1 -2.8 0.5 6.6 4.3 4.9 3.0 2.1 1.5Trade Balance (EUR bn) 11.9 6.5 5.5 12.0 15.4 - - - - - Quarterly Data Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.8Economic Growth (GDP, s.a. qoq var. in %) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, aop) 0.4 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 0.4 0.7 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.6ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.053-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) 0.08 0.08 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.0610-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 1.39 1.00 0.56 0.87 0.90 0.81 1.11 1.35 1.48 1.55Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.26 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.06 1.07 Monthly Data Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 1.9 -3.6 -2.6 6.0 -1.1 -3.2 -0.7 -1.4 - -Industrial Production (s.a. mom var. in %) 2.2 -2.8 -1.0 2.8 -1.4 1.5 -1.8 0.9 - -Unemployment (% of active population) 8.1 8.7 8.7 8.6 8.6 8.5 8.5 8.7 - -Consumer Confidence Index -7.0 -10.0 -11.0 -11.0 -12.0 -14.0 -12.0 -9.0 -5.0 -6.0Business Confidence Index -6.2 -7.5 -7.3 -7.2 -6.8 -6.1 -6.9 -8.8 -8.3 -6.3Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %) 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.4 -0.6 -0.4 -Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.37 1.34 1.32 1.26 1.25 1.25 1.21 1.13 1.12 -



April 2015


1 | Real GDP | 2000-2019 | var. in %




Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Bank of Belgium (NBB, Nationale Bank van Belgie). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.1 GDP, annual variation in %.2 Quarterly GDP (seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.3 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 Private consumption, annual variation in %.6 Private consumption, change in 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.7 Gross fixed capital formation, annual variation in %.8 Real exports of goods and services, annual variation in %.9 Real imports of goods and services, annual variation in %.

-6

-3

0

3

6

2000 2005 2010 2015

BelgiumEuro areaWorld

-2

0

2

4

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

BelgiumEuro areaWorld

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5



0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5




1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8


2015 2016


-2

0

2

4

2000 2005 2010 2015

BelgiumEuro area

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016BNP Paribas Fortis 1.4 1.7Citigroup Global Mkts 1.2 1.8Commerzbank 1.3 1.5Credit Suisse 1.2 1.8DekaBank 1.3 1.5Deutsche Bank 1.3 1.6DZ Bank 1.1 1.5EIU 1.3 1.6ING 1.2 1.6KBC 1.3 1.7Nomura 1.1 1.3Oxford Economics 1.3 1.6Raiffeisen Research 1.4 2.1UBS 1.1 1.4Summary Minimum 1.1 1.3Maximum 1.4 2.1Median 1.3 1.6Consensus 1.2 1.6History 30 days ago 1.2 1.660 days ago 1.3 1.690 days ago 1.3 1.6Additional Forecasts Federal Planning Bureau (Feb. 2015) 1.0 -IMF (Oct. 2014) 1.4 1.5European Commission (Feb. 2015) 1.1 1.4



April 2015


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016BNP Paribas Fortis 1.4 1.5 2.9 3.4 3.6 4.2 3.5 4.3Citigroup Global Mkts 1.3 1.3 0.9 2.7 2.3 4.1 2.6 3.9Commerzbank - - - - - - - -Credit Suisse 1.0 1.3 4.0 4.4 - - - -DekaBank - - - - - - - -Deutsche Bank - - - - - - - -DZ Bank 1.0 0.7 1.8 5.1 3.4 6.1 3.5 6.4EIU 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.7 4.3 5.8 4.1 5.3ING 1.2 1.5 -0.1 1.4 - - - -KBC 1.5 1.4 0.3 1.7 3.4 4.8 3.3 4.5Nomura 1.2 1.1 2.2 1.1 1.9 2.3 1.7 1.2Oxford Economics 1.7 1.6 1.3 3.1 2.0 4.3 2.2 4.3Raiffeisen Research - - - - - - - -UBS 1.1 1.5 2.5 2.3 3.9 4.1 3.7 3.7SummaryMinimum 1.0 0.7 -0.1 1.1 1.9 2.3 1.7 1.2Maximum 1.7 1.6 4.0 5.1 4.3 6.1 4.1 6.4Median 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.5 3.4 4.3 3.4 4.3Consensus 1.2 1.3 1.7 2.7 3.1 4.5 3.1 4.2History30 days ago 1.2 1.2 3.1 2.5 3.7 4.3 3.9 4.060 days ago 1.2 1.3 3.0 2.6 3.6 3.9 3.8 3.790 days ago 1.2 1.2 2.8 2.2 3.5 3.8 3.7 3.4



-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

BelgiumEuro area


-20

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

BelgiumEuro area


-20

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

BelgiumEuro area


1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5


2015 2016


3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5


2015 2016


3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5


2015 2016



April 2015






60

70

80

90

100

110

2000 2005 2010 2015

Belgium

Euro area

6

8

10

12

14

2000 2005 2010 2015

Belgium

Euro area

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0


2015 2016

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

2000 2005 2010 2015

Belgium

Euro area

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016BNP Paribas Fortis 8.3 8.1 -2.6 -2.4 106.9 106.3Citigroup Global Mkts 8.5 8.2 -2.6 -2.3 107.0 106.1Commerzbank - - - - - -Credit Suisse 8.2 7.8 -2.3 -1.8 106.8 106.6DekaBank - - -2.6 -2.4 - -Deutsche Bank 8.5 8.2 -2.7 -2.2 107.0 107.0DZ Bank - - -2.5 -2.0 107.0 106.9EIU 8.7 8.5 -2.4 -2.2 110.0 109.9ING 8.5 8.2 -2.7 -2.0 106.7 105.5KBC 8.6 8.3 -2.3 -2.0 106.7 106.5Nomura 8.5 8.4 -3.1 -3.2 107.3 107.9Oxford Economics 8.5 8.1 -2.1 -1.5 110.2 110.7Raiffeisen Research - - -2.6 -2.4 106.8 106.6UBS 8.4 8.1 -2.6 -2.4 106.8 106.6SummaryMinimum 8.2 7.8 -3.1 -3.2 106.7 105.5Maximum 8.7 8.5 -2.1 -1.5 110.2 110.7Median 8.5 8.2 -2.6 -2.2 107.0 106.6Consensus 8.5 8.2 -2.6 -2.2 107.4 107.2History30 days ago 8.4 8.1 -2.4 -2.1 107.7 107.960 days ago 8.4 8.2 -2.5 -2.2 106.1 106.590 days ago 8.4 8.2 -2.5 -2.3 106.5 106.0


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Bank of Belgium (NBB, Nationale Bank van Belgie) and Eurostat. See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.10 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.11 Exports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.12 Imports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.13 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: NBB.14 General government balance as % of GDP. Source: Eurostat.15 General government balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.16 Public debt as % of GDP. Source: Eurostat.




April 2015


17 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | in %




Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary and external sector data are from the National Bank of Belgium (NBB, Nationale Bank van Belgie) and Statistics Belgium (SB). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.17 Inflation, annual average variation of harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) in %.

Source: SB.18 Inflation, annual variation of quarterly average harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP)

in %. Source: SB.19 Inflation, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.20 Inflation, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.21 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: NBB.22 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last

18 months.

-1

0

1

2

3



-2

0

2

4

6

2000 2005 2010 2015

Belgium

Euro area

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5



-2

0

2

4

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

Belgium

Euro area


-2

-1

0

1

2


2015 2016

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016BNP Paribas Fortis -0.1 1.6 1.3 1.7Citigroup Global Mkts 0.1 1.3 - -Commerzbank 0.2 1.1 - -Credit Suisse 0.0 1.2 0.6 1.0DekaBank 0.4 1.7 - -Deutsche Bank 0.2 1.6 1.5 1.2DZ Bank 0.5 1.0 - -EIU 0.1 1.3 - -ING 0.2 1.6 - -KBC 0.2 1.2 2.0 2.3Nomura 0.4 1.3 - -Oxford Economics -0.1 2.0 0.6 0.1Raiffeisen Research 0.0 1.5 0.8 0.8UBS 0.7 1.2 0.6 1.0Summary Minimum -0.1 1.0 0.6 0.1Maximum 0.7 2.0 2.0 2.3Median 0.2 1.3 0.8 1.0Consensus 0.2 1.4 1.1 1.2History 30 days ago 0.3 1.3 0.5 0.960 days ago 0.3 1.4 0.4 0.790 days ago 0.7 1.5 0.4 0.4Additional Forecasts FPB (March 2015) 0.2 - - -IMF (Oct. 2014) 1.0 1.3 - -Euro. Comm. (Feb. 2015) 0.1 1.1 - -




-2

0

2

4

6

2000 2005 2010 2015

BelgiumEuro area



April 2015

Fact Sheet

Belgium in the Region


Belgium4.4%

Germany30.7%

France22.6%

Italy17.0%

Spain11.2%

Other14.1%

Belgium3.4%

Germany24.5%

France19.3%

Italy18.1%

Spain14.1%

Other20.6%

U.S.A.6.1%

Other EU-27

17.2%

Netherlands20.8%

Germany14.2%

France10.6%

Asia ex-Japan8.9%

Other22.3%

U.S.A.5.3%

Other EU-27

18.1%

Germany18.0%

France16.1%

Netherlands12.9%

Asia ex-Japan6.6%

Other23.0%

Other6.8%


Mineral Fuels15.8%

Food8.5%

Other7.2%


Mineral Fuels10.3%

Food9.0%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

0

20

40

60

80

1002004-06 2007-09 2010-12

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002004-06 2007-09 2010-12

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• Qualified labor force• External net creditor position • Vulnerable banking system

• Presence of European institutions and international organizations

• Political tensions between Flanders and Wallonia• Government debt above Euro area average

Energy (2012)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 498Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 2,591Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 76.1Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 81.9Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 10.5Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 606CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 139

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: Aa3 StableS&P: AA StableFitch Ratings: AA Negative


Transportation (2013) Airports: 41Railways (km): 3,233Roadways (km): 154,012Waterways (km): 2,043Chief Ports: Antwerp, Zeebruge

Official name: Kingdom of BelgiumCapital: Brussels (3.6m)Other cities: Antwerp (1.0m)

Liege (0.6m)Area (km2): 30,528Population (million, 2014 est.): 11.2Population density (per km2, 2014): 367Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 0.1Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 79.7Illiteracy rate (%, 2011): 1.0Language: Dutch, French, GermanMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT+1

Prime Minister: Charles MichelLast elections: 25 May 2014Next elections: May 2019Central Bank Governor: Luc Coene

FOCUSECONOMICS Estonia


April 2015

Estonia

POLITICS | Estonia’s ruling liberal Reform Party wins parliamentary election in close voteEstonia’s ruling center-right Reform Party won the 1 March parliamentary election, beating the pro-Russophone Centre Party in a close contest that was mainly centered on national security issues amid the Russia-Ukraine ongoing conflict. While the Reform Party garnered the most seats, it fell short of absolute majority in the 101-seat Riigikogu (parliament).

Prime Minister Taavi Roivas’ ruling Reform Party received 27.8% of the votes, which was slightly down from the result achieved in the elections that were held in 2011. The result was high enough to beat opposition pro-Russophone Centre Party, which obtained 24.8%. The Social Democrat Party (SDE) came in third with 15.2%, followed by the conservative Pro Patria-Res Publica Union (IRL), which received just 13.7%. Two new smaller parties made their way into the Parliament for the first time. The Free Party got 8.7% of the votes and the anti-immigration Conservative People’s Party (EKRE) received 8.1%.

Prime Minister Roivas now faces a more difficult scenario in which to form a coalition as parliament has fragmented into six parties rather than the previous election’s four parties. Roivas has already ruled out a coalition with the pro-Russophone Centre Party, which is not a surprise considering that

Outlook moderates



Estonia

2011-13 2014-16 2017-19Population (million): 1.3 1.3 1.3GDP (EUR bn): 17.6 19.8 23.2GDP per capita (EUR): 13,280 14,891 17,430GDP growth (%): 4.8 2.2 3.5Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): 0.1 -0.4 0.1Public Debt (% of GDP): 8.6 9.8 8.5Inflation (%): 4.2 1.1 2.5Current Account (% of GDP): -0.8 -1.6 -2.0

The Estonian economy closed 2014 in good shape, expanding at a slightly faster pace than in the previous year. According to a flash estimate released on 11 February, the economy accelerated in the final quarter of last year, underpinned by strong growth in the manufacturing sector, particularly in electronics and wood products. Meanwhile, in the political arena, Estonia’s ruling liberal Reform Party won parliamentary elections on 1 March. Prime Minister Taavi Roivas’ Reform party beat pro-Russophone Centre Party in a close vote and now must look for alliances in order to reach majority in parliament.

Estonia is expected to post healthy growth this year, although geopolitical tensions between the European Union and Russia will continue to create uncertainty in various sectors of the economy. Domestic demand will continue to be the main driver of the economy this year, supported by increased wages and historically low energy prices. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 2.0% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. The panel expects GDP growth to accelerate to 2.8% in 2016.

Harmonized consumer prices declined 0.5% annually in January, hitting a five-year-low (December: +0.1% year-on-year). FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect HICP inflation to pick up both this year and the next, averaging 0.8% in 2015 and 1.9% in 2016.

Parliamentary Elections Results

Note: Percentage of votes.Source: Estonian National Electoral Committee.

Reform Party27.8%

Centre Party24.8%

SDE15.2%

IRL13.7%

Free Party8.7%

EKRE8.1%

Other1.7%



April 2015

his party has a pro-NATO foreign policy and is openly against Russia’s role in Ukraine. While the Social Democrat Party is most likely to remain a member of the ruling coalition, Roivas will need to look for other alliances if he aims to have majority in parliament. It is still unclear what parties will comprise the government coalition.

REAL SECTOR | GDP accelerates in the final quarter of 2014; ends 2014 on a high note According to the flash estimate released by Statistics Estonia (SE) on 11 February, the Estonian economy expanded 2.7% over the same quarter of the previous year in Q4 2014. The result marked an acceleration from the 2.2% tallied in Q3. According to SE, the expansion in Q4 was mainly driven by growth in the manufacturing sector, particularly in electronics and wood products. In addition to manufacturing, the other main contributors to growth were energy and trade activities. Exports also improved markedly in Q4, increasing a solid 8.0% (Q3: +6.6% year-on-year).

In seasonally- and working-day adjusted terms, GDP increased 1.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, which was notably above the mild 0.2% expansion tallied in the third quarter.

In the full year 2014, GDP expanded 1.8%, which represented a slight improvement compared to the 1.6% increase registered in 2013. More detailed data for national accounts will be released on 11 March.

The Central Bank expects GDP growth to reach 2.1% in 2015 and 3.3% in 2016. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants see the economy growing 2.0% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2016, economic growth is expected to accelerate to 2.8%.

REAL SECTOR | Growth in industrial production slows in January after December’s peakIn January, industrial production increased a working-day adjusted 1.8% over the same month of the previous year, which came in well below the 7.9% rise tallied in December and marked the lowest reading in three months. According to Statistics Estonia, January’s mild expansion reflected improvements in the production of electronics, wood, metal products and furniture. Conversely, the food industry, chemicals and motor vehicles recorded contractions compared to the same month of the previous year.

A month-on-month assessment shows that industrial output decreased 1.5% in seasonally- and working-day-adjusted terms in January, which followed the 1.7% drop observed in December. As a result of the slight improvement, the overall trend continued to improve in January, with annual average growth in industrial production rising to 2.5% from December’s 2.2%.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect industrial production to expand 3.4% in 2015, which is up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month’s projection. In 2016, the panel expects industrial production to increase 3.8%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Consumer prices decline again in FebruaryConsumer prices increased 0.6% over the previous month in February, which contrasted the 0.4% drop tallied in January and marked a nearly-two-year high. According to Statistics Estonia, the result mainly reflected increases in alcoholic beverages, clothing and transport. Conversely, prices for housing


Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.Source: Statistics Estonia and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

0

4

8

12

Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015

%


Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average growth of industrial production index in %.Source: Statistics Estonia and FocusEconomics calculations.

-8

-4

0

4

8

12


Year-on-year Annual average

%



April 2015

and for recreation and culture recorded lower prices compared to the previous month.

Consumer prices decreased 0.8% compared to the same month last year in February, which was a less pronounced decline than the 1.3% drop tallied in the previous month. Meanwhile, annual HICP inflation swung from a 0.1% rise in December to a 0.5% fall in January (the last month for which data are available). As a result of the marked drop in prices, annual average HICP inflation ticked down from December’s 0.5% to 0.3% in January.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect harmonized inflation to average 0.8% in 2015, which is down 0.8 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2016, the panel expects average inflation to accelerate to 1.9%.


Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month variation of consumer price index in %.Source: Statistics Estonia.

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

-0.8

-0.4

0.0

0.4

0.8




%%



April 2015


Annual Data 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Real Sector Population (million) 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3GDP per capita (USD) 14,637 17,171 17,112 18,854 19,107 15,926 16,369 18,052 20,047 21,960GDP (USD bn) 19.5 22.8 22.7 24.9 25.5 21.2 21.8 24.0 26.7 29.2GDP per capita (EUR) 11,035 12,334 13,311 14,196 14,382 14,805 15,487 16,400 17,406 18,483GDP (EUR bn) 14.7 16.4 17.6 18.7 19.2 19.7 20.6 21.8 23.2 24.6Economic Growth (Nom. GDP, ann. var. in %) 4.0 11.5 7.5 6.2 2.1 2.9 4.6 5.8 6.1 6.1Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 2.5 8.3 4.7 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.8 3.3 3.6 3.6Private Consumption (annual var. in %) -1.6 2.5 5.1 3.8 3.7 3.4 3.5 3.8 4.0 4.1Government Consumption (ann. var. in %) -0.4 1.7 3.3 2.8 - - - - - -Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) -2.6 33.0 10.4 2.5 1.2 1.7 3.8 5.1 5.3 5.7Industrial Production (annual var. in %) 22.9 19.7 1.5 4.1 2.1 3.4 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.5Retail Sales (annual variation in %) -3.2 5.8 7.7 5.2 6.7 4.3 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 16.7 12.3 10.0 8.6 7.3 7.1 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.0Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 0.2 1.0 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3Public Debt (% of GDP) 6.5 6.0 9.7 10.1 10.0 9.8 9.6 8.9 8.3 8.2Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M2 in %) 3.0 6.9 7.1 6.7 9.9 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) 5.7 3.7 3.5 1.4 -0.5 - - - - -Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, aop) 2.7 5.1 4.2 3.2 0.5 0.8 1.9 2.5 2.5 2.5Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %, aop) 3.3 4.4 2.3 4.1 -1.6 - - - - -ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 1.00 1.00 0.75 0.25 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.39 0.76 1.543-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) 1.01 1.36 0.19 0.29 0.08 0.03 0.06 0.62 1.00 1.57Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.34 1.30 1.32 1.38 1.21 1.04 1.07 1.13 1.17 1.20Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, aop) 1.33 1.39 1.29 1.33 1.33 1.08 1.06 1.10 1.15 1.19External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 1.8 1.4 -2.5 -1.1 -1.5 -1.6 -1.6 -2.0 -2.0 -2.1Current Account Balance (EUR bn) 0.3 0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5Merchandise Trade Balance (EUR bn) -0.5 -0.7 -1.6 -1.5 -1.6 -1.3 -1.3 -1.4 -1.4 -1.5Merchandise Exports (EUR bn) 8.7 12.0 12.5 12.3 12.1 12.0 12.6 13.1 13.6 14.0Merchandise Imports (EUR bn) 9.3 12.7 14.1 13.8 13.7 13.3 13.9 14.5 15.0 15.5Merchandise Exports (annual variation in %) 34.8 37.3 4.3 -1.8 -1.7 -0.5 4.5 4.2 3.8 2.9Merchandise Imports (annual variation in %) 27.5 37.3 10.8 -2.1 -0.6 -3.1 4.6 4.3 3.4 3.3External Debt (EUR bn) 16.4 15.3 16.6 16.1 17.6 17.8 18.1 18.8 19.3 20.0External Debt (% of GDP) 111.6 93.0 94.2 85.7 91.8 90.3 87.7 86.2 83.1 81.4 Quarterly Data Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 2.2 2.7 2.4 1.9 1.8 2.0 2.6 2.7 3.0 3.1Economic Growth (GDP, s.a. qoq variation in %) 0.2 1.1 - - - - - - - -Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, aop) 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.5 2.0 2.2ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.053-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) 0.08 0.08 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.06Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.26 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.06 1.07 Monthly Data May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 1.5 1.6 2.7 2.8 4.0 1.6 4.2 7.9 1.8 -Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 -0.8 0.0 -0.4 0.6Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.7 -0.6 -0.2 -0.6 -0.5 -1.3 -0.8Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %) 0.6 0.4 0.0 -0.2 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.1 -0.5 -Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.36 1.37 1.34 1.32 1.26 1.25 1.25 1.21 1.13 1.12



April 2015

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product and Fiscal Balance

1 | Real GDP | 2000-2019 | var. in %



7 | Unemployment | evolution of fcst

2 | Real GDP | Q1 12-Q4 16 | var. in % Economic Growth and Fiscal Balance



8 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcstNotes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Statistics Estonia (SE) and Eurostat. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: SE.2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally-adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.

Source: SE.3 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: SE.6 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: Eurostat.7 Unemployment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18

months.8 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP, evolution of 2015

and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Capital Economics 1.0 2.0 -0.5 -0.5Danske Bank 2.2 2.7 - -DekaBank 3.0 2.8 -0.6 -0.6DNB 2.0 3.0 -0.4 -0.4EIU 2.0 2.8 0.2 0.4JPMorgan 2.4 2.8 -0.5 -0.5Nordea 2.2 3.4 -0.7 -0.4Oxford Economics 2.2 2.8 -0.9 -0.6SEB 1.3 2.8 -1.0 -0.5Swedbank 2.0 2.7 -0.4 -0.2WIIW 2.0 2.5 -0.5 -0.3SummaryMinimum 1.0 2.0 -1.0 -0.6Maximum 3.0 3.4 0.2 0.4Median 2.0 2.8 -0.5 -0.5Consensus 2.0 2.8 -0.5 -0.4History30 days ago 2.1 2.9 -0.5 -0.360 days ago 2.3 3.0 -0.5 -0.390 days ago 2.4 3.0 -0.6 -0.3Additional ForecastsCentral Bank (Dec. 2014) 2.1 3.3 - -IMF (Oct. 2014) 2.5 3.5 - -Euro. Comm. (Feb. 2015) 2.3 2.9 - -

Real GDP Fiscal Balancevariation in % % of GDP

-20

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

EstoniaEastern EuropeWorld

0

5

10

15

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

Estonia

Eastern Europe

-2

0

2

4

6

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

EstoniaEastern EuropeWorld

1

2

3

4

5

Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan


0

2

4

6



6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5


2015 2016

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0


2015 2016

-10

-5

0

5

2000 2005 2010 2015

Estonia

Eastern Europe



April 2015


9 | Inflation | 2000-2019 | in %



10 | Inflation | Q1 12-Q4 16 | in % Inflation and Current Account Balance



Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary and external sector data are from the Statistics Estonia (SE) and the Bank of Estonia (EP, Eesti Pank). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 9 Inflation, annual average variation of harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) in %

Source: SE. 10 Inflation, annual variation of quarterly average harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP)

in %. Source: SE. 11 Inflation, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.12 Inflation, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.13 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: EP.14 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last

18 months.

-20

-10

0

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

Estonia

Eastern Europe

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0


2015 2016

0

5

10

15

20

25

2000 2005 2010 2015

EstoniaEastern Europe

-5

0

5

10

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

EstoniaEastern Europe

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5



0

1

2

3

4



Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Capital Economics -0.3 1.3 -2.5 -2.5Danske Bank 0.7 1.7 -2.5 -2.6DekaBank 0.6 1.7 -1.7 -2.1DNB 1.5 2.0 -2.5 -2.5EIU 0.8 2.4 -0.6 -1.1JPMorgan 0.3 0.7 -0.2 -0.5Nordea 2.0 2.5 -0.9 -0.8Oxford Economics 0.5 2.1 -3.0 -2.3SEB 1.6 1.9 -0.8 -0.2Swedbank - - -0.9 -1.3WIIW 0.8 2.2 -1.5 -2.2SummaryMinimum -0.3 0.7 -3.0 -2.6Maximum 2.0 2.5 -0.2 -0.2Median 0.8 2.0 -1.5 -2.1Consensus 0.8 1.9 -1.6 -1.6History30 days ago 1.6 2.3 -1.7 -1.960 days ago 1.6 2.3 -1.7 -1.990 days ago 1.6 2.1 -1.8 -1.8Additional ForecastsCentral Bank (Dec. 2014) 0.8 2.1 - -IMF (Oct. 2014) 1.5 2.1 - -Euro. Comm. (Feb. 2015) 0.4 1.6

Prices (HICP) Current Accountvariation in % % of GDP



April 2015

Fact Sheet

Estonia in the Region

Population | %-share in Baltics GDP | %-share in Baltics

Estonia24.2%

Lithuania 45.6%

Latvia 30.2%

Estonia21.1%

Lithuania 46.8%

Latvia 32.2%

Other EU-27

37.4%

Finland15.0%

Germany11.0%

Sweden10.8%

Asia ex-Japan5.5%

Other20.3%

Russia12.7%

Other EU-27

21.9%

Sweden16.8%

Finland15.4%

Latvia9.3%

Other24.0%

Other9.2%


Mineral Fuels17.1%

Food10.1%

Other11.5%


Mineral Fuels16.0%

Food9.3%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1202004-06 2007-09 2010-12

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002002-04 2005-07 2008-10

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• Small domestic market

• Widespread English proficiency • High external debt• High per capita income • Ageing population

• Commitment to prudent fiscal policy

Energy (2012)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 14Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 93Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 11.3Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 8.2Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 11.0Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 28.6CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 5.7

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: A1 StableS&P: AA- StableFitch Ratings: A+ Stable


Transportation (2013) Airports: 18Railways (km): 1,196Roadways (km): 58,412Waterways (km): 335Chief Ports: Tallinn, Kunda, Pärnu

Official name: Republic of EstoniaCapital: Tallinn (0.5m)Area (km2): 45,228Population (million, 2014 est.): 1.3Population density (per km2, 2014): 29.5Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): -0.7Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 74.1Illiteracy rate (%, 2011): 0.2Language: Estonian, RussianMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT+2

Prime Minister: Taavi RoivasLast elections: 1 March 2015Next elections: 2019Central Bank President: Ardo Hansson

FOCUSECONOMICS Finland


April 2015

Finland

REAL SECTOR | Economic activity rebounds at the outset of the yearIn January, economic activity rose a working-day adjusted 0.7% over the same month last year, according to the monthly Trend Indicator of Output. The reading contrasted the revised 1.1% drop recorded in December (previously reported: -1.2% year-on-year) and marked the largest increase in three months. January’s expansion reflected a healthy increase in services, while growth in both the primary and secondary sectors was flat.

On a monthly basis, economic output expanded 1.5% in seasonally- and working-day adjusted terms in January, coming in well above December’s 0.8% contraction and marking the largest increase in 20 months. Annual average growth in economic activity stabilized at December’s 0.0% in January.

The Central Bank expects the economy to contract 0.1% in 2015 and to expand 1.0% in 2016. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists are more optimistic than the Central Bank’s forecast and expect the economy to expand 0.5% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2016, the panel sees GDP expanding 1.4%.

Economic growth is expected to rebound this year, thereby putting an end to three consecutive years of declining output. Although household consumption remains subdued, the weakening of the euro coupled with the fall in oil prices is supporting growth. Despite the recovery expected for 2015, Fitch Ratings changed Finland’s credit outlook from stable to negative on 20 March, but affirmed the country’s rating at AAA. The agency cited the structural decline in the electronics and paper sectors, which have been key drivers in the past. This, combined with an ageing population, has led to a sharp decline in productivity growth and in economic growth estimates. In addition, Finland is suffering from a sharp fall in exports to Russia, the country’s third-largest trading partner. In the political arena, the opposition Centre Party of Finland is leading the polls in advance of the 19 April general elections.

Although Finland’s economic outlook is clouded by ongoing domestic difficulties, the pick-up in economic growth in the Eurozone and the decline in oil prices are expected to foster growth this year. FocusEconomics panelists expect the recovery to be mild in 2015 with GDP projected to expand 0.5%, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. In 2016, panelists see the economy growing 1.4%.

Harmonized consumer prices decreased 0.1% in February (January: -0.2% year-on-year). The decline in oil prices and subdued economic growth are keeping inflationary pressures at bay. Panelists expect inflation to average 0.4% in 2015, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s estimate. Next year, the panel sees inflation at 1.2%.

Outlook deteriorates


Ricard TornéSenior Economist

Finland

2011-13 2014-16 2017-19Population (million): 5.4 5.5 5.6GDP (EUR bn): 200 207 227GDP per capita (EUR): 36,946 37,706 40,763GDP growth (%): -0.1 0.6 1.8Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -1.8 -2.6 -0.6Public Debt (% of GDP): 52.5 61.0 60.9Inflation (%): 2.9 0.9 1.9Current Account (% of GDP): -1.8 -1.2 0.0

Monthly GDP | variation in %

Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation of working-day adjusted Trend Indicator of Output (TIO) in %.Source: Statistics Finland and FocusEconomics calculations.

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0


Year-on-year w.d.a.

Annual average

%



April 2015

EXTERNAL SECTOR | Current account records largest deficit in six months in JanuaryThe current account posted a EUR 530 million deficit in January. Although the print represented a slight improvement compared to the EUR 715 million shortfall recorded in the same month last year, it marked the largest deficit in six months.

The trade balance registered a deficit of EUR 114 million in January, contrasting the EUR 143 million surplus recorded in December. Exports contracted at the fastest pace since August 2013, falling 10.2% over the same month last year (December: +3.6% year-on-year). Imports followed suit and declined 14.1% annually in January (December: -6.9% yoy), which represented the largest drop since October 2009.

In the 12 months up to January, the current account balance recorded a EUR 3.6 billion deficit. The print was up from the EUR 3.8 billion shortfall recorded in the 12 months up to the previous month and represented the smallest deficit in 13 months.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the current account deficit to reach 1.0% of GDP in 2015. For 2016, the panel expects the current account deficit to be at 0.7% of GDP.

Current Account Balance | EUR billion

Note: Monthly and 12-month current account balance in EUR billion.Source: Bank of Finland (BoF) and FocusEconomics calculations.

-6.0

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0


Monthly current account balance (left scale)

12-month current account balance (right scale)



April 2015


Annual Data 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Real Sector Population (million) 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6GDP per capita (EUR) 34,963 36,625 36,990 37,223 37,425 37,445 38,249 39,380 40,725 42,185GDP (EUR bn) 187 197 200 202 204 206 211 218 227 236Economic Growth (Nom. GDP, ann. var. in %) 3.4 5.2 1.5 1.1 1.0 1.0 2.5 3.3 3.8 4.0Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 3.0 2.6 -1.4 -1.3 -0.1 0.5 1.4 1.7 1.9 2.0Domestic Demand (annual variation in %) 3.2 4.0 -1.3 -1.3 -0.8 0.4 1.0 1.6 1.7 1.8Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 3.1 2.9 0.3 -0.6 -0.2 0.3 0.9 1.6 1.8 1.9Government Consumption (annual var. in %) -0.1 -0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 - - - - -Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) 1.1 4.1 -2.2 -5.3 -5.1 -0.3 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7Exports (G&S, annual variation in %) 6.2 2.0 1.2 -0.7 -0.4 2.3 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.3Imports (G&S, annual variation in %) 6.5 6.0 1.6 -1.6 -1.4 1.4 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 5.3 1.7 -1.4 -3.5 -2.6 1.5 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.5Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 8.4 7.8 7.7 8.2 8.7 8.8 8.7 8.3 7.8 7.6Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -2.6 -1.0 -2.1 -2.4 -3.2 -2.5 -2.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.3Public Debt (% of GDP) 47.1 48.5 53.0 56.0 59.2 61.5 62.4 61.8 60.9 59.9Monetary and Financial Sector Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 1.2 3.5 2.8 1.5 1.0 0.4 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.8Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, aop) 1.7 3.3 3.2 2.2 1.2 0.4 1.2 1.7 1.9 2.0Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %, aop) 5.0 5.5 1.5 -0.4 -1.0 - - - - -ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 1.00 1.00 0.75 0.25 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.39 0.76 1.543-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) 1.01 1.36 0.19 0.29 0.08 0.03 0.06 0.62 1.00 1.5710-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 3.16 2.31 1.52 2.13 0.80 0.62 0.91 1.35 1.37 1.48Stock Market (var. of OMXH25 in %) 29.3 -26.1 13.8 28.3 5.4 - - - - -Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.34 1.30 1.32 1.38 1.21 1.04 1.07 1.13 1.17 1.20Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, aop) 1.33 1.39 1.29 1.33 1.33 1.08 1.06 1.10 1.15 1.19External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 1.2 -1.8 -2.0 -1.8 -1.9 -1.0 -0.7 -0.2 0.1 0.2Current Account Balance (EUR bn) 2.3 -3.5 -3.9 -3.6 -3.8 -2.1 -1.6 -0.4 0.2 0.5Trade Balance (EUR bn) 2.3 -1.6 -0.4 0.1 0.7 - - - - - Quarterly Data Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 0.0 -0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5Economic Growth (GDP, s.a. qoq var. in %) 0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, aop) 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.4ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.053-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) 0.08 0.08 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.06Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.26 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.06 1.07 Monthly Data Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15Trend Indicator of Output (annual var. in %) 0.3 -0.5 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.2 -1.1 0.7 - -Trend Indicator of Output (s.a. mom var. in %) 0.8 -0.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 -0.6 -0.8 1.5 - -Industrial Production (annual var. in %) -4.1 -2.7 -3.5 -1.1 -0.6 -1.3 -0.2 -3.9 - -Unemployment (% of active population) 9.2 7.0 7.4 8.2 8.3 8.2 8.8 8.8 10.1 -Cons. Confidence Index (0-threshold) 8.7 9.4 2.2 -0.7 0.4 2.6 4.4 6.0 10.6 11.2Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %) 1.1 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.1 0.5 -0.2 -0.1 -Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.37 1.34 1.32 1.26 1.25 1.25 1.21 1.13 1.12 -Current Account Balance (EUR bn) -0.16 -0.92 -0.06 0.45 0.13 0.09 0.14 -0.53 - -



April 2015


1 | Real GDP | 2000-2019 | var. in %


2 | Real GDP | Q1 12 - Q4 16 | var. in % Real GDP growth in %


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from Statistics Finland (SF). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.1 GDP, annual variation in %.2 Quarterly GDP (seasonally-adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.3 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 Private consumption, annual variation in %.6 Private consumption, change in 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.7 Gross fixed capital formation, annual variation in %.8 Real exports of goods and services, annual variation in %.

-10

-5

0

5

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

FinlandEuro areaWorld

-4

-2

0

2

4

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

FinlandEuro areaWorld

0

1

2

3



-1

0

1

2

3




0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0


2015 2016


-4

-2

0

2

4

6

2000 2005 2010 2015

FinlandEuro area

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016Aktia Bank 0.3 1.3Commerzbank 0.7 0.8Credit Suisse 0.8 1.5Danske Bank 0.5 1.5DekaBank 0.2 1.0Deutsche Bank 0.8 1.4DZ Bank 0.6 1.5EIU 0.4 1.4ETLA Research Institute 0.6 1.8Handelsbanken 0.5 1.5Nordea 0.0 1.5OP-Pohjola Group 1.0 1.7Oxford Economics 0.3 1.0Raiffeisen Research 0.5 1.8SEB 0.4 1.0Swedbank 0.0 0.8UBS 0.8 1.4SummaryMinimum 0.0 0.8Maximum 1.0 1.8Median 0.5 1.4Consensus 0.5 1.4History30 days ago 0.6 1.360 days ago 0.6 1.490 days ago 0.7 1.3Additional ForecastsCentral Bank (Dec. 2014) -0.1 1.0IMF (Oct. 2014) 0.9 1.6Euro. Comm. (Feb. 2015) 0.8 1.4



April 2015


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016Aktia Bank 0.0 1.0 0.0 3.0 1.0 2.5 0.4 2.4Commerzbank - - - - - - - -Credit Suisse - - - - - - - -Danske Bank 0.0 0.5 -1.5 3.0 3.0 4.0 1.5 2.5DekaBank - - - - - - - -Deutsche Bank - - - - - - - -DZ Bank 0.9 1.0 0.1 2.8 3.0 4.3 3.2 4.2EIU 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.0 0.5 2.0 0.3 0.9ETLA Research Institute 0.5 1.3 0.7 2.3 1.7 3.0 1.8 2.3Handelsbanken 0.2 1.1 -0.5 3.5 4.7 3.7 2.7 3.5Nordea 0.0 0.7 -1.5 3.4 2.1 3.9 1.6 3.1OP-Pohjola Group 0.6 1.0 -1.7 2.0 3.0 4.0 0.9 2.5Oxford Economics 0.0 1.0 -2.4 1.9 0.8 2.8 0.0 2.4Raiffeisen Research - - - - - - - -SEB 0.3 0.5 0.5 2.0 2.5 3.7 1.5 3.4Swedbank - - - - - - - -UBS 0.2 1.1 1.3 2.5 2.9 4.6 1.5 3.9SummaryMinimum 0.0 0.5 -2.4 1.9 0.5 2.0 0.0 0.9Maximum 0.9 1.3 1.6 3.5 4.7 4.6 3.2 4.2Median 0.2 1.0 0.0 2.5 2.5 3.7 1.5 2.5Consensus 0.3 0.9 -0.3 2.6 2.3 3.5 1.4 2.8History30 days ago 0.3 0.9 0.1 2.5 2.4 3.5 1.5 2.960 days ago 0.4 1.0 0.3 2.6 2.1 3.4 1.4 2.990 days ago 0.4 1.1 0.6 2.5 2.1 3.2 1.6 3.3



-20

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

FinlandEuro area


-20

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

FinlandEuro area


-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

FinlandEuro area


-2

0

2

4


2015 2016


1

2

3

4

5


2015 2016


2

3

4

5


2015 2016



April 2015






30

50

70

90

110

2000 2005 2010 2015

FinlandEuro area

5

7

9

11

13

2000 2005 2010 2015

FinlandEuro area

-3

-2

-1

0


2015 2016

-10

-5

0

5

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

Finland

Euro area

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016Aktia Bank 9.1 9.2 -2.6 -2.2 62.2 63.7Commerzbank - - - - - -Credit Suisse 8.5 8.1 -2.4 -2.0 61.7 62.4Danske Bank 9.0 8.8 -2.7 -1.5 61.5 62.5DekaBank - - -2.5 -2.2 - -Deutsche Bank 9.0 8.8 -3.3 -2.8 62.0 63.0DZ Bank - - -2.0 -1.8 60.8 61.5EIU 8.9 8.6 -2.7 -2.1 61.6 62.1ETLA Research Institute 8.8 8.5 - - - -Handelsbanken 8.8 8.6 -2.4 -2.0 - -Nordea 9.0 9.0 -3.2 -2.6 62.5 64.5OP-Pohjola Group 8.8 8.7 -2.0 -1.5 61.2 62.2Oxford Economics 8.8 8.5 -2.2 -1.2 60.3 59.7Raiffeisen Research - - -2.5 -2.2 61.2 62.6SEB 8.8 8.5 -2.2 -2.0 61.5 62.0Swedbank - - - - - -UBS 8.6 8.5 -2.5 -2.2 61.2 62.6SummaryMinimum 8.5 8.1 -3.3 -2.8 60.3 59.7Maximum 9.1 9.2 -2.0 -1.2 62.5 64.5Median 8.8 8.6 -2.5 -2.1 61.5 62.5Consensus 8.8 8.7 -2.5 -2.0 61.5 62.4History30 days ago 8.9 8.6 -2.2 -1.8 61.4 62.060 days ago 8.8 8.7 -2.1 -1.7 61.5 62.390 days ago 8.7 8.5 -2.1 -1.7 61.4 62.4

Unemployment Fiscal Balance Public Debt % of active pop. % of GDP % of GDP

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from Statistics Finland (SF) and Eurostat. See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.9 Real imports of goods and services, annual variation in %. Source: SF.10 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2015 and forecasts during the last 18 months.11 Exports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.12 Imports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.13 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: SF.14 General government balance as % of GDP. Source: Eurostat.15 General government balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and forecasts during the last 18 months.16 Public debt as % of GDP. Source: Eurostat.




April 2015


17 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | in %


18 | Inflation | Q1 12 - Q4 16 | in % Consumer Prices and Current Account Balance


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary and external sector data are from Statistics Finland (SF) and the Bank of Finland (BoF). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 17 Inflation, annual average variation of harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) in %.

Source: SF.18 Inflation, annual variation of quarterly average harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP)

in %. Source: SF.19 Inflation, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.20 Inflation, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.21 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: BoF.22 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last

18 months.

-1

0

1

2

3



0

1

2

3

4

2000 2005 2010 2015

FinlandEuro area

0

1

2

3



-1

0

1

2

3

4

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

FinlandEuro area


-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5


2015 2016

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Aktia Bank - - -1.5 -1.4Commerzbank - - - -Credit Suisse 0.2 1.0 -1.0 -0.8Danske Bank - - -1.2 -0.7DekaBank 0.6 1.8 -0.7 -0.4Deutsche Bank 0.1 1.3 -1.5 -1.3DZ Bank 1.0 1.3 -1.1 -1.2EIU 0.3 1.1 -0.8 -0.7ETLA Research Institute 0.5 1.1 -1.0 -0.8Handelsbanken - - -1.2 -0.4Nordea - - -1.2 -1.1OP-Pohjola Group - - 0.1 0.6Oxford Economics - - -0.2 -0.1Raiffeisen Research -0.1 1.0 -1.6 -1.4SEB 0.0 0.6 - -Swedbank - - - -UBS 1.4 1.2 -1.1 -0.8SummaryMinimum -0.1 0.6 -1.6 -1.4Maximum 1.4 1.8 0.1 0.6Median 0.3 1.1 -1.1 -0.8Consensus 0.4 1.2 -1.0 -0.7History30 days ago 0.7 1.2 -0.9 -0.660 days ago 1.0 1.4 -1.2 -0.990 days ago 1.2 1.5 -1.4 -1.1Additional ForecastsCentral Bank (Dec. 2014) 1.0 1.4 - -IMF (Oct. 2014) 1.5 1.7 - -Euro. Comm. (Feb. 2015) 0.5 1.3 - -

Prices (HICP) Current Acct var. in % % of GDP


-3

0

3

6

9

2000 2005 2010 2015

FinlandEuro area



April 2015

Fact Sheet

Finland in the Region


Finland2.0%

Germany28.1%

France20.7%

Italy15.6%

Spain10.2%

Other23.5%

Finland1.6%

Germany24.3%

France19.2%

Italy18.0%

Spain14.0%

Other22.7%

Russia17.7%

Other EU-27

26.4%

Sweden14.8%

Germany13.9%

Netherlands8.1%

Asia ex-Japan6.9%

Other12.2%

Russia9.9%

U.S.A.6.2%

Other EU-27

22.1%

Sweden11.1%Germany

9.4%

Netherlands6.3%

Asia ex-Japan10.3%

Other24.7%

Other12.6%


Ores & Metals7.8%

Mineral Fuels20.7%

Other4.8%


Ores & Metals5.4%

Mineral Fuels9.7%

Agric. Raw Mat.

6.0%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

0

20

40

60

80

1002004-06 2007-09 2010-12

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002004-06 2007-09 2010-12

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• High competitiveness • Ageing population• Technology infrastructure• Highly industrialized economy

.

• Small open economy sensitive to external demand shocks• Highly dependant on energy imports

• Commitment to medium-term fiscal stability


Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: Aaa StableS&P: AA+ StableFitch Ratings: AAA Negative


Transportation (2013) Airports: 148Railways (km): 5,944Roadways (km): 78,000Waterways (km): 8,000Chief Ports: Helsinki, Kotka, Naantali

Official name: Republic of FinlandCapital: Helsinki (1.5m)Other cities: Tampere (0.5 m)

Turku (0.5 m)Area (km2): 338,145Population (million, 2014 est.): 5.5Population density (per km2, 2014): 16Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 0.1Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 79.7Illiteracy rate (%, 2000): 0.0Language: Finnish and Swedish Measures: Metric systemTime: GMT+2

Prime Minister: Alexander StubbLast elections: 17 April 2011Next elections: April 2015Central Bank Governor: Erkki Liikanen

FOCUSECONOMICS Greece


April 2015

Greece

POLITICS | Greece presents new reform plan in hopes of securing desperately-needed cash On 27 March, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras presented Greece’s newest reform plan to Eurozone leaders and the IMF in an effort to unlock desperately-needed funds and avoid bankruptcy. The new economic plan follows tense negotiations over Greece’s future in earlier weeks and includes previously-discussed measures to crack down on corruption and tax evasion as well as honoring the privatization sales that have already been completed. In the latest version of the plan, which was debated with troika representatives and creditors over the weekend, Tsipras also conceded to retain an unpopular property tax in the plan and increase the value-added tax for Greek islands. The Greek government says its plan will help raise EUR 3 billion of revenue and generate a 1.5% primary budget surplus this year. However, the proposal did not touch on reforms to the pension system or labor laws, two areas which Eurozone leaders insist must be overhauled. A four-month extension of Greece’s EUR 240 billion bailout program was approved by Eurozone finance ministers on 24 February, although no new funds have yet been dispersed. Eurozone leaders have stipulated that Greece will have to outline a comprehensive reform plan and fulfill the conditions to receive the extension

The Greek economy grew in 2014 for the first time in six years, largely on the back of a recovery in private consumption and the external sector. However, Greece’s future is shrouded in uncertainty. The country is at the brink of bankruptcy and desperately needs additional financing from its European lenders. On 27 March, Prime Minister Alexis Tspiras presented Greece’s newest reform plan, which includes previously-discussed measures to reduce corruption and tax evasion. Tsipras also conceded to retain an unpopular property tax and increase the value added tax for Greek islands, although the proposal did not touch on reforms to the pension system or labor laws. Further discussions with troika representatives are slated for this week, but at this point it is unlikely the latest plan will be enough to cement a deal and allow Greece to receive bailout extension funding.

Looking forward, Greece’s outlook is deteriorating rapidly. The government’s funding gap is weighing heavily on the forecast and political tensions are rising in the country. Further, large downside risks of another election or even a ”grexit” from the Eurozone still loom. FocusEconomics Consensus panelists expect the economy to expand 0.9% in 2015, which is down 0.7 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel sees the economy growing 2.3%.

In February, harmonized consumer prices fell 1.9% over the same month of the previous year (January: -2.8% year-on-year). Panelists expect consumer prices to fall 1.3% in 2015. For 2016, the panel sees consumer prices rising 0.5%.



2011-13 2014-16 2017-19Population (million): 11.1 11.0 11.0GDP (EUR bn): 195 180 197GDP per capita (EUR): 17,543 16,337 17,895GDP growth (%): -6.5 1.3 2.5Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -10.3 -2.0 -0.3Public Debt (% of GDP): 168 173 157Inflation (%): 1.1 -0.8 1.3Current Account (% of GDP): -5.5 1.1 0.6


Greece



April 2015

funds. Further talks are planned for this week, but it is not clear if the latest proposal will be enough to seal a deal nor is it known when new funds might be released.

Tsipras’ move comes amidst increasing uncertainty over Greece’s future. The country’s finances have depleted and Greece has a number of payments due in the upcoming weeks, including a EUR 467 million loan repayment to the IMF on 9 April and EUR 6.7 billion due for maturing bonds in July and August. On 25 March, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised the amount that Greek banks can borrow from EUR 69.8 billion to EUR 71.1 billion extending a small lifeline to the country’s finances. However, the European Financial Stability Facility denied Greece’s appeal for cash on the same day, and Eurozone leaders have reiterated that Greece must commit to reform to earn funds. Moreover, Tsipras faces a tough road ahead even if Greece does receive additional funding. Tsipras campaigned on an anti-austerity platform and his coalition government has had to compromise on some key campaign pledges in the reform plan. Hard left-wing members of the coalition have criticized the government’s actions and there is a risk of political gridlock or snap elections if they oppose Tsipras’ policies.

Looking forward, Greece’s outlook is deteriorating. The government must walk a tight-rope between balancing anti-austerity campaign promises and satisfying creditors’ demands for reform. On the extreme side, the possibility of another snap election or even a ”grexit’” from the Eurozone still pose a large downside risk. Against this backdrop, FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists revised their projections for 2015 downward this month. Panelists foresee a 0.9% expansion, which is down 0.7 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel expects growth to pick up to 2.3%.

REAL SECTOR | Industrial production swings back to expansionIn January, industrial production expanded a working-day adjusted 0.1% compared to the same month of the previous year, which contrasted the revised 3.2% contraction tallied in December (previously reported: -3.8%). January’s gain reflected an improvement in all of the sub-components that comprise the index.

Industrial output declined 4.7% over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms in January, which was below the 2.7% fall in December. January’s result marked a five-month low. Annual average variation in industrial production increased from minus 2.2 in December to minus 1.9 in January.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see industrial production falling 0.1% in 2015, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2016, the panel sees industrial production increasing 1.0%.

REAL SECTOR | Unemployment rate rises in DecemberThe number of unemployed fell by 300 in December, according to the Hellenic Statistical Authority (EL.STAT.). December’s fall marked a smaller drop over November’s 11,400 decrease.

The unemployment rate inched up from 25.9% in November to 26.0% in December. The reading was below that of the same month of the previous year (December 2013: 27.3%). Despite the improvements registered in recent months, Greece’s unemployment rate is still well above the Eurozone average.


Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average variation of industrial production index in %.Source: Hellenic Statistical Authority (EL.STAT.) and FocusEconomics calculations.

-10

-5

0

5


Year-on-year

Annual average

%

Labour Market

Note: Month-on month variation of unemployed people in thousands and unemployment rate in %.Source: Hellenic Statistical Authority (EL.STAT.).

25

26

27

28

29

-40

-20

0

20

40

Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14

Change in unemployed (mom, left scale)

Unemployment rate (right scale)

%



April 2015

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect unemployment to average 25.5% in 2015, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel expects the unemployment rate to average 23.9%.



April 2015


Annual Data 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Real Sector Population (million) 11.2 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0GDP per capita (EUR) 20,226 18,678 17,459 16,491 16,221 16,163 16,627 17,191 17,875 18,619GDP (EUR bn) 226 208 194 182 179 178 183 189 197 205Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) -4.7 -8.2 -6.5 -6.1 -1.8 -0.5 2.8 3.3 3.9 4.1Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) -5.5 -8.9 -6.6 -3.9 0.8 0.9 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.6Domestic Demand (annual variation in %) -9.1 -10.8 -10.3 -3.9 1.0 1.0 2.1 3.0 3.3 3.2Private Consumption (annual var. in %) -7.1 -10.6 -7.8 -2.0 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.0Government Consumption (ann. var. in %) -4.3 -6.6 -5.0 -6.5 -0.9 - - - - -Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) -11.0 -16.4 -20.8 -16.5 -2.2 1.0 5.4 5.2 5.3 5.3Exports (G&S, annual variation in %) 4.6 0.0 1.2 2.1 9.0 4.8 5.3 5.0 4.7 4.3Imports (G&S, annual variation in %) -5.5 -9.0 -9.1 -1.6 7.4 4.1 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.9Industrial Production (annual variation in %) -5.9 -5.7 -2.0 -3.2 -2.2 -0.1 1.0 1.7 2.0 2.2Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 12.7 17.9 24.6 27.5 26.5 25.5 23.9 20.3 18.1 16.4Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -11.1 -10.1 -8.6 -12.2 -2.6 -1.9 -1.5 -0.5 -0.2 -0.1Public Debt (% of GDP) 146 171 157 175 176 173 168 164 156 149Monetary and Financial Sector Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, eop) 5.2 2.2 0.3 -1.8 -2.5 - - - - -Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, aop) 4.7 3.1 1.0 -0.9 -1.4 -1.3 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.5Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %, aop) 6.7 7.7 4.8 -0.9 -1.2 - - - - -ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 1.00 1.00 0.75 0.25 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.39 0.76 1.543-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) 1.01 1.36 0.19 0.29 0.08 0.03 0.06 0.62 1.00 1.5710-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 12.54 35.49 11.84 8.50 9.60 8.23 7.18 6.53 6.52 6.16Stock Market (var. of ASE in %) -35.6 -51.9 33.4 28.1 -28.9 - - - - -Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.34 1.30 1.32 1.38 1.21 1.04 1.07 1.13 1.17 1.20Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, aop) 1.33 1.39 1.29 1.33 1.33 1.08 1.06 1.10 1.15 1.19External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -10.0 -9.9 -2.4 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.4Current Account Balance (EUR bn) -22.5 -20.6 -4.6 1.1 1.7 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.2 0.8Trade Balance (EUR bn) -29.8 -24.3 -19.8 -16.5 -17.8 - - - - - Quarterly Data Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 2.0 1.2 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.5Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, aop) -0.7 -1.9 -2.0 -1.5 -1.2 -0.7 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.8ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.053-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) 0.08 0.08 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.06Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.26 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.06 1.07 Monthly Data May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 0.0 -5.4 -0.2 -4.9 -4.5 -0.1 3.3 -3.2 0.1 -Markit Manufacturing PMI (50-threshold) 51.0 49.4 48.7 50.1 48.4 48.8 49.1 49.4 48.3 48.4Unemployment (% of active population) 26.8 26.7 26.4 26.2 26.0 25.9 25.9 26.0 - -Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %) -2.1 -1.5 -0.8 -0.2 -1.1 -1.8 -1.2 -2.5 -2.8 -1.9Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.36 1.37 1.34 1.32 1.26 1.25 1.25 1.21 1.13 1.12



April 2015


1 | Real GDP | 2000 - 2019 | var. in %




Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Hellenic Statistical Authority (EL.STAT.) and Eurostat. See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: Eurostat and EL.STAT.2 Quarterly GDP (non seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %. Source: Eurostat and

EL.STAT.3 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 Private consumption, annual variation in %. Source: Eurostat and EL.STAT.6 Private consumption, change in 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.7 Gross fixed capital formation, annual variation in %. Source: Eurostat and EL.STAT.8 Real exports of goods and services, annual variation in %. Source: Eurostat and EL.STAT.

-10

-5

0

5

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

GreeceEuro areaWorld

-10

-5

0

5

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

GreeceEuro areaWorld

0

1

2

3

4



-2

0

2

4




0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0


2015 2016


-15

-10

-5

0

5

2000 2005 2010 2015

GreeceEuro area

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016Citigroup Global Mkts -0.2 1.5Commerzbank 0.2 2.5Credit Suisse 1.8 2.9DekaBank 0.5 2.0Deutsche Bank 0.8 3.2DZ Bank -0.1 1.0EIU 1.5 2.2Eurobank 1.9 2.8Frontier Strategy Group 0.0 1.0ING 1.4 2.3National Bank of Greece 1.3 3.0Nomura 0.4 2.7Oxford Economics 1.3 2.4Piraeus Bank 0.8 -UBS 1.5 2.5Unicredit 0.8 2.5SummaryMinimum -0.2 1.0Maximum 1.9 3.2Median 0.8 2.5Consensus 0.9 2.3History30 days ago 1.6 2.560 days ago 1.9 2.590 days ago 2.0 2.5Additional Forecasts IMF (Oct. 2014) 2.9 3.7European Commission (Feb. 2015) 2.5 3.6

.



April 2015


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016Citigroup Global Mkts 0.5 0.9 8.0 3.9 3.3 4.3 7.4 3.1Commerzbank - - - - - - - -Credit Suisse 1.8 1.9 4.4 6.1 - - - -DekaBank - - - - - - - -Deutsche Bank - - - - - - - -DZ Bank 0.5 0.3 - - 4.0 6.2 7.6 4.6EIU 1.8 1.7 -4.0 3.0 5.1 4.1 3.5 2.7Eurobank 1.5 - 4.0 - 6.0 - 5.0 -Frontier Strategy Group - - - - 2.0 4.5 -1.0 2.0ING - - - - - - - -National Bank of Greece 0.2 1.9 -3.4 9.5 6.9 6.0 2.0 5.9Nomura 1.2 1.7 1.6 3.9 4.8 5.7 5.8 3.3Oxford Economics 1.6 1.3 -5.9 5.0 4.0 4.8 -0.2 3.0Piraeus Bank - - - - - - - -UBS 1.5 2.5 3.4 6.5 7.5 7.0 6.5 7.0Unicredit - - - - - - - -SummaryMinimum 0.2 0.3 -5.9 3.0 2.0 4.1 -1.0 2.0Maximum 1.8 2.5 8.0 9.5 7.5 7.0 7.6 7.0Median 1.5 1.7 2.5 5.0 4.8 5.2 5.0 3.2Consensus 1.2 1.5 1.0 5.4 4.8 5.3 4.1 3.9History30 days ago 1.2 1.5 2.9 5.2 5.2 4.9 2.8 3.460 days ago 1.4 1.6 3.8 6.8 5.4 5.1 3.0 3.590 days ago 1.5 1.8 5.5 7.0 5.6 5.2 3.5 3.9



-30

-15

0

15

30

2000 2005 2010 2015

GreeceEuro area


-20

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

GreeceEuro area


-20

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

GreeceEuro area


0

2

4

6

8


2015 2016


2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5


2015 2016


4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0


2015 2016



April 2015






50

100

150

200

2000 2005 2010 2015

GreeceEuro area

5

10

15

20

25

30

2000 2005 2010 2015

GreeceEuro area

-3

-2

-1

0


2015 2016

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

2000 2005 2010 2015

Greece

Euro area

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016Citigroup Global Mkts 26.0 25.4 -1.4 -0.8 178 175Commerzbank - - - - - -Credit Suisse 25.0 22.0 -0.5 -0.3 170 159DekaBank - - - - - -Deutsche Bank 26.2 25.5 -0.7 -0.7 165 158DZ Bank - - -2.0 -0.5 175 175EIU 25.8 24.4 -3.8 -3.7 171 165Eurobank 24.6 22.6 -1.3 - 171 -Frontier Strategy Group 25.0 23.0 - - - -ING - - - - - -National Bank of Greece 25.7 22.8 -3.2 - 173 -Nomura 27.0 26.0 -3.0 -2.6 181 176Oxford Economics 24.6 22.9 -2.2 -1.9 175 171Piraeus Bank 25.5 - - - 177 -UBS 25.4 24.0 -1.0 -1.0 172 164Unicredit - - -1.9 -2.0 175 170SummaryMinimum 24.6 22.0 -3.8 -3.7 165 158Maximum 27.0 26.0 -0.5 -0.3 181 176Median 25.5 23.5 -1.9 -1.0 174 170Consensus 25.5 23.9 -1.9 -1.5 173 168History30 days ago 25.3 23.5 -1.1 -0.4 171 16560 days ago 25.2 23.5 -1.1 -0.3 170 16390 days ago 25.1 23.3 -1.1 -0.3 170 163

% of active pop. % of GDP % of GDPUnemployment Fiscal Balance Public Debt

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Hellenic Statistical Authority (EL.STAT.) and Eurostat. See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.9 Real imports of goods and services, annual variation in %. Source: EL.STAT.10 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.11 Exports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.12 Imports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.13 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: EL.STAT.14 General government fiscal balance as % of GDP. Source: Eurostat. 15 General government fiscal balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.16 Public debt as % of GDP. Source: Eurostat.




April 2015


17 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | in %




Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary and external sector data are from the Hellenic Statistical Authority (EL.STAT.) and the Bank of Greece (BoG). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 17 Inflation, annual average variation of harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) in %.

Source: EL.STAT.18 Inflation, annual variation of quarterly average harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP)

in %. Source: EL.STAT.19 Inflation, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.20 Inflation, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.21 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: BoG.22 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last

18 months.

-4

-2

0

2



-2

0

2

4

6

2000 2005 2010 2015

GreeceEuro area

-2

-1

0

1

2

3



-3.0

-1.5

0.0

1.5

3.0

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

GreeceEuro area


-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5


2015 2016

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Citigroup Global Mkts -1.8 0.2 0.6 0.6Commerzbank -1.5 0.0 - -Credit Suisse -2.0 0.7 1.2 1.0DekaBank -1.5 1.0 - -Deutsche Bank -1.6 1.0 1.5 1.2DZ Bank - - - -EIU -1.2 1.0 3.0 2.4Eurobank -0.5 0.6 - -Frontier Strategy Group - - - -ING -1.2 0.4 - -National Bank of Greece -1.2 1.9 1.3 -Nomura -1.8 -1.1 - -Oxford Economics -1.9 -0.4 1.0 1.0Piraeus Bank -1.2 - 1.0 -UBS -0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0Unicredit -0.6 0.3 0.9 1.1SummaryMinimum -2.0 -1.1 0.5 0.0Maximum -0.5 1.9 3.0 2.4Median -1.3 0.5 1.0 1.0Consensus -1.3 0.5 1.2 1.0History30 days ago -1.4 0.5 1.2 1.360 days ago -1.1 0.4 1.3 1.190 days ago -0.6 0.6 1.0 0.9Additional Forecasts IMF (Oct. 2014) -0.8 0.3 - -Euro. Comm. (Feb. 2015) -0.3 0.7 - -

Prices (HICP) Current Acct var. in % % of GDP


-15

-10

-5

0

5

2000 2005 2010 2015

GreeceEuro area



April 2015

Fact Sheet

Greece in the Region


Greece1.7%

Germany28.1%

France20.7%Italy

15.6%

Spain10.2%

Other23.7%

Greece3.3%

Germany24.3%

France19.2%

Italy18.0%

Spain14.0%

Other21.1%

Russia12.1%

Other EU-27

28.7%

Germany9.5%

Italy8.3%

Asia ex-Japan10.0%

Other31.5%

Turkey10.9%

Other EU-27

19.1%

Italy7.8%

Germany6.5%

Bulgaria5.8%

Asia ex-Japan5.5%

Other44.3%

Other17.3%


Mineral Fuels29.8%

Other4.9%


Ores & Metals8.4%

Mineral Fuels26.8%

Food19.9%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1202004-06 2007-09 2010-12

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002004-06 2007-09 2010-12

Agriculture

Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• Leading ship owner • Large public debt• Tourist potential • High structural unemployment

• High levels of household debt• Widespread tax evasion

• Ongoing external rebalancing process


Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: Caa1 RURS&P: B- NegativeFitch Ratings: B Negative


Transportation (2013) Airports: 77Railways (km): 2,548Roadways (km): 116,960Waterways (km): 6Chief Ports: Piraeus, Thessaloniki

Official name: Hellenic RepublicCapital: Athens (4.1m)Other cities: Thessaloniki (1.2m)Area (km2): 131,957Population (million, 2014 est.): 11.0Population density (per km2, 2014): 83.7Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 0.0Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 80.3Illiteracy rate (%, 2011): 3.7Language: GreekMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT+2

Prime Minister: Alexis TsiprasLast elections: 25 January 2015Next elections: 24 February 2019Central Bank Governor: Yannis Stournaras

FOCUSECONOMICS Ireland


April 2015

Ireland

REAL SECTOR | Economic growth slows in Q4; full-year 2014 GDP records largest expansion in seven years According to preliminary data, in Q4, the economy increased a mild 0.2% over the previous quarter in seasonally-adjusted terms, which followed the 0.4% expansion observed in Q3 2014 and marked the worst print since Q2 2013. The result, which fell short of the 1.0% growth expected by the market, was driven by a worse performance of the external sector.

Domestic demand sped up from a 0.9% increase in Q3 to a 2.5% expansion in Q4. Private consumption grew 1.3% (Q3: +0.3% quarter-on-quarter), and government spending advanced from Q3’s 1.7% decline to a milder 0.1% contraction in Q4. Conversely, fixed investment slowed from a 3.2% increase in Q3 to a weaker 0.7% rise in Q4.

On the external side of the economy, exports decelerated from a 3.0% rise in Q3 to a 1.2% increase in Q4, which marked the weakest growth since Q3 2013. At the same time, imports recorded a 5.4% expansion (Q3: +4.0% qoq). As a result, the external sector’s net contribution to GDP growth deteriorated from minus 0.1 percentage points in Q3 to minus 3.7 percentage points in Q4.

Outlook stable



Ireland



Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally-adjusted GDP and year-on-year variation in %.Source: Central Statistics Office Ireland (CSO) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

-3.0

0.0

3.0

6.0

9.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015



% %

Ireland was the European Union’s fastest growing economy last year, expanding at a post-recession high of 4.8%. However, last year’s recovery might be less dynamic than suggested by this fast expansion. Last year’s performance was partly driven by companies that are based in Ireland to take advantage of its favorable tax system and who record financial transactions offshore. Nevertheless, the fact that private consumption finally picked up in 2014 indicates that the recovery has broadened. More recent indicators generally suggest that the economy is on a solid growth track: the services PMI and consumer confidence both remained high in February, despite having moderated. In the political arena, growing weariness with austerity policies has been reflected in rising support for the left-wing opposition Sinn Fein party and ongoing protests against new water fees.

Ireland’s growth prospects remain positive on expectations of solid growth in private consumption and investment. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to grow 3.6% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. The panel also forecasts an expansion of 3.6% in 2016.

In February, harmonized consumer prices fell 0.4% in annual terms, matching January’s print, which had marked the largest decline since November 2010. Panelists expect HICP inflation to average 0.2% in 2015 and see it picking up to 1.2% in 2016.



April 2015

On an annual basis, GDP grew 4.1% in Q4, mirroring Q3’s reading. In the full year 2014, the economy expanded 4.8%, which marked a notable improvement over 2013’s 0.2% expansion and was the largest gain since 2007.

According to its Q1 Quarterly Bulletin, the Central Bank expects GDP to grow 3.7% in 2015 and 3.8% in 2016. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to grow 3.6% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel also sees economic growth of 3.6%.

REAL SECTOR | Services PMI moderates but remains high in FebruaryThe Investec Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) inched down from January’s 62.5 to 61.4 in February. Even though this marks the lowest level in seven months, the index remains quite high. The index has been above the 60.0 mark since March, well above the 50-threshold that indicates expansion in the services sector.

February’s moderation mainly reflected that the rate of growth in new export orders and outstanding business slowed. Conversely, business sentiment improved and growth in new business continued to strengthen. Moreover, employment grew yet again. Input and output prices both rose in February.

According to the survey report, the result suggests that, “[n]otwithstanding the softening of a number of the indices within the PMI survey, Irish services firms remain upbeat about their future prospects, with the forward looking Confidence index improving to a three month high in February. Once again it stands close to the 10 year high that was posted in February 2014, with three-fifths of panellists expecting to see an increase in activity over the coming year and fewer than one in twenty expecting to see a decrease.”

REAL SECTOR | Industrial production continues to moderate in JanuaryIn January, industrial production tallied a seasonally- and working-day adjusted 10.6% expansion over the same month last year, which was down from the 14.6% increase tallied in December. The print represented the lowest gain since June of last year and a third consecutive moderation. According to the Central Statistics Office (CSO), the slowdown reflects a slower production in the “traditional” sector. Conversely, production in the “modern” sector, which includes pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and high-tech, picked up compared to December. The extraordinary gains that were recorded in October and November–in October an over-decade-high expansion was tallied–had partly been due to a positive base effect resulting from the expiration of several patents in 2013.

Industrial production contracted 0.1% over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms in January, marking an improvement over the 11.9% decrease tallied in December. Meanwhile, annual average growth in industrial production inched up from 20.0% in December to 20.3% in January.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect industrial production to expand 5.6% in 2015, which is up 1.6 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel sees industrial production rising also 4.1%.

OUTLOOK | Consumer confidence edges down from almost nine-year high in FebruaryThe KBC Bank Ireland/ESRI Consumer Sentiment Index decreased from 101.1 points in January, which had marked the highest level since February 2006, to 96.1 points in February. February’s result reflects moderations in


Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation in %.Source: Central Statistics Office Ireland (CSO) and FocusEconomics calculations.

-15

0

15

30

45



%

Services Purchasing Managers’ Index

Note: Investec Services PMI. Readings above 50 indicate an expansion in the services sector while readings below 50 indicate a contraction.Source: Investec and Markit.

45

50

55

60

65




April 2015

both consumers’ perceptions of the current economic environment and their outlook for the Irish economy. The deterioration was broad-based, with most subcategories performing worse over the previous month. Particularly, compared to the previous month, consumers were less positive about their personal financial situations in the past and the next 12 months, the general economic outlook and major purchases. Conversely, they assessed the outlook for unemployment more positively than in January.

According to the survey report, “[t]he pullback in consumer sentiment in February […] is disappointing but not entirely unexpected. Most Irish consumers are not experiencing a ‘straight line recovery’ where each month sees a clear and progressive improvement in their personal circumstances. In addition, the broader global outlook remains quite uncertain and through the survey period renewed concerns about Greece would have been a forceful reminder of downside risks to macroeconomic prospects. So, while our sense is that the underlying trend in Irish consumer sentiment remains solidly positive, the monthly index is likely to continue to make progress by taking two steps forward followed by one back.”

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect private consumption to expand 2.0% in 2015, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel sees private consumption increasing 2.3%.

Consumer Confidence

Note: The KBC Bank Ireland/ESRI Consumer Sentiment Index.Source: The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

40

60

80

100

120

Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15



April 2015


Annual Data 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Real Sector Population (million) 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.0GDP per capita (EUR) 36,208 37,386 37,678 36,598 38,587 39,783 41,320 42,884 44,584 46,248GDP (EUR bn) 165 171 173 175 185 192 202 211 221 232Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) -1.9 3.7 1.0 1.2 6.1 3.7 4.8 4.7 4.9 4.7Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) -0.3 2.8 -0.3 0.2 4.8 3.6 3.6 3.3 3.3 3.0Domestic Demand (annual variation in %) -4.3 -0.7 -0.6 -0.3 3.6 3.1 3.3 3.0 3.0 2.9Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 0.9 -1.2 -1.2 -0.8 1.1 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1Government Consumption (ann. var. in %) -7.1 -2.1 -2.1 1.4 0.1 - - - - -Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) -18.0 -2.9 5.0 -2.4 11.3 10.8 9.3 8.0 7.5 6.9Exports (G&S, annual variation in %) 6.2 5.5 4.7 1.1 12.6 6.3 5.4 5.1 5.1 4.8Imports (G&S, annual variation in %) 3.0 -0.6 6.9 0.6 13.2 6.5 5.2 4.9 4.8 4.6Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 2.0 -0.3 -1.4 -2.5 19.9 5.6 4.1 3.7 3.7 3.8Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 13.9 14.6 14.7 13.1 11.3 9.9 8.9 8.5 8.4 7.9Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -32.4 -12.6 -8.0 -5.7 -3.8 -2.7 -2.0 -1.0 -0.5 -0.2Public Debt (% of GDP) 87.4 111.1 121.7 123.3 111.1 109.6 106.3 104.8 101.1 98.5Monetary and Financial Sector Inflation (Core, annual variation in %, aop) -1.4 1.5 2.2 0.9 0.7 - - - - -Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, eop) -0.2 1.4 1.7 0.4 -0.3 - - - - -Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, aop) -1.6 1.2 1.9 0.5 0.3 0.2 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.7Inflation (WPI, annual variation in %, aop) -0.4 0.6 1.8 -0.4 -1.3 - - - - -ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 1.00 1.00 0.75 0.25 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.39 0.76 1.543-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) 1.01 1.36 0.19 0.29 0.08 0.03 0.06 0.62 1.00 1.5710-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 8.68 8.39 4.60 3.44 1.24 0.84 1.18 1.71 2.11 2.41Stock Market (var. of ISEQ in %) -3.0 0.6 17.1 33.6 15.1 - - - - -Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.34 1.30 1.32 1.38 1.21 1.04 1.07 1.13 1.17 1.20Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, aop) 1.33 1.39 1.29 1.33 1.33 1.08 1.06 1.10 1.15 1.19External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 0.6 0.8 1.6 4.4 6.2 6.0 5.7 5.6 4.9 4.7Current Account Balance (EUR bn) 0.9 1.4 2.7 7.6 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.8 10.9 10.9Trade Balance (EUR bn) 44.0 42.7 42.6 37.1 35.8 - - - - - Quarterly Data Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 4.1 4.1 3.2 3.4 4.0 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.0Economic Growth (GDP, s.a. qoq var. in %) 0.4 0.2 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, aop) 0.5 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.053-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) 0.08 0.08 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.0610-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 1.66 1.24 0.88 0.87 0.85 0.84 0.87 0.98 1.18 1.18Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.26 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.06 1.07 Monthly Data May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 30.0 2.4 18.7 19.3 18.9 36.4 30.0 14.6 10.6 -Unemployment (% of active population) 11.5 11.3 11.2 11.1 10.9 10.7 10.4 10.4 10.3 10.1Consumer Confidence Index 79.4 81.1 89.4 87.1 92.8 85.5 85.3 90.5 101.1 96.1Investec Manufacturing PMI (50-threshold) 55.0 55.3 55.4 57.3 55.7 56.6 56.2 56.9 55.1 57.5Investec Services PMI (50-threshold) 61.7 62.6 61.3 62.4 62.5 61.5 61.6 62.6 62.5 61.4Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.36 1.37 1.34 1.32 1.26 1.25 1.25 1.21 1.13 1.12



April 2015


1 | Real GDP | 2000-2019 | var. in %




Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Central Statistics Office Ireland (CSO). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.1 GDP, annual variation in %.2 Quarterly GDP (non seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.3 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 Private consumption, annual variation in %.6 Private consumption, change in 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.7 Gross fixed capital formation, annual variation in %.8 Real exports of goods and services, annual variation in %.

-10

-5

0

5

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

IrelandEuro areaWorld

-3

0

3

6

9

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

IrelandEuro areaWorld

0

3

6

9



0

2

4

6




1.0

1.3

1.6

1.9

2.2

2.5


2015 2016


-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2000 2005 2010 2015

IrelandEuro area

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016AIB Global Treasury 4.0 4.0Bank of Ireland 4.2 3.8Citigroup Global Mkts 2.3 5.2Commerzbank 3.5 3.5Credit Suisse 3.3 3.8Dan McLaughlin 3.3 4.0Davy 3.7 3.4DekaBank 3.2 3.3Deutsche Bank 3.7 3.5DZ Bank 3.1 3.5EIU 2.5 2.9ESRI 4.4 3.7Goodbody Stockbrokers 4.0 3.8IBEC 4.8 -Investec Ireland 3.7 3.5Nomura 3.2 2.8Oxford Economics 3.4 2.9Raiffeisen Research 3.9 3.5UBS 3.5 3.6SummaryMinimum 2.3 2.8Maximum 4.8 5.2Median 3.5 3.5Consensus 3.6 3.6History30 days ago 3.6 3.460 days ago 3.6 3.690 days ago 3.6 3.4Additional ForecastsCentral Bank (Feb. 2015) 3.7 3.8IMF (Oct. 2014) 3.0 2.5European Commission (Feb. 2015) 3.5 3.6



April 2015


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016AIB Global Treasury 2.0 2.0 8.0 7.0 7.0 6.0 6.0 5.5Bank of Ireland 2.0 2.2 12.0 7.5 5.5 5.3 5.2 5.1Citigroup Global Mkts 2.9 3.0 10.6 8.6 7.6 7.9 12.2 5.7Commerzbank - - - - - - - -Credit Suisse 1.2 1.4 8.8 10.0 - - - -Dan McLaughlin 2.5 3.2 13.0 10.5 10.0 8.0 11.3 9.0Davy 1.8 2.8 9.6 8.5 4.7 4.4 3.5 4.0DekaBank - - - - - - - -Deutsche Bank - - - - - - - -DZ Bank 0.9 1.4 - - 6.4 5.9 5.6 5.5EIU 1.1 1.2 - - 6.2 6.4 6.3 6.3ESRI 2.0 2.4 12.5 9.2 5.1 4.5 4.4 4.6Goodbody Stockbrokers 1.7 2.2 12.9 14.1 4.8 4.1 4.7 4.9IBEC 2.7 - 13.3 - 8.9 - 7.8 -Investec Ireland 2.0 2.1 10.2 8.9 5.0 3.0 5.0 3.0Nomura 2.9 2.5 12.1 9.8 7.2 6.0 10.5 5.8Oxford Economics 1.2 2.8 - - 5.4 4.2 4.3 4.2Raiffeisen Research - - - - - - - -UBS 2.8 2.8 6.5 8.0 4.0 4.8 3.8 4.5SummaryMinimum 0.9 1.2 6.5 7.0 4.0 3.0 3.5 3.0Maximum 2.9 3.2 13.3 14.1 10.0 8.0 12.2 9.0Median 2.0 2.3 11.3 8.9 5.9 5.3 5.4 5.1Consensus 2.0 2.3 10.8 9.3 6.3 5.4 6.5 5.2History30 days ago 1.7 2.1 8.9 8.0 5.8 4.9 5.5 4.960 days ago 1.9 2.1 8.8 7.7 5.6 5.0 5.2 4.690 days ago 1.9 2.1 8.4 7.2 5.4 4.8 5.0 4.5



-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

IrelandEuro area


-20

-10

0

10

20

30

2000 2005 2010 2015

IrelandEuro area


-20

-10

0

10

20

30

2000 2005 2010 2015

Ireland

Euro area


4

6

8

10

12


2015 2016


3

4

5

6

7


2015 2016


3

4

5

6

7


2015 2016



April 2015






0

50

100

150

2000 2005 2010 2015

Ireland

Euro area

3

8

13

18

2000 2005 2010 2015

Ireland

Euro area

-3.5

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5


2015 2016

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

Ireland

Euro area

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016AIB Global Treasury 10.1 9.0 -2.5 -1.5 109 104Bank of Ireland 10.0 8.8 - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts 9.2 7.5 -2.8 -1.0 110 105Commerzbank - - - - - -Credit Suisse 10.0 9.3 -2.7 -2.0 110 108Dan McLaughlin 9.9 8.9 -2.7 -1.9 107 103Davy 9.6 8.2 -2.9 -2.2 109 105DekaBank - - -2.9 -3.1 - -Deutsche Bank 10.0 9.0 -2.8 -2.5 109 106DZ Bank - - -2.8 -3.1 110 107EIU 10.1 9.6 -2.8 -2.2 112 111ESRI 9.7 8.4 -2.3 -0.3 106 101Goodbody Stockbrokers 9.7 8.9 -2.8 -2.2 107 105IBEC 9.6 - -2.2 - 108 -Investec Ireland 9.8 8.3 -3.0 -2.5 110 107Nomura - - -2.9 -2.3 111 109Oxford Economics 10.4 9.6 -2.0 -0.8 117 113Raiffeisen Research - - -2.7 -2.0 109 104UBS 10.5 9.9 -2.9 -3.1 110 108SummaryMinimum 9.2 7.5 -3.0 -3.1 106 101Maximum 10.5 9.9 -2.0 -0.3 117 113Median 10.0 8.9 -2.8 -2.2 109 106Consensus 9.9 8.9 -2.7 -2.0 110 106History30 days ago 10.0 9.0 -2.7 -2.2 110 10860 days ago 10.0 9.0 -2.7 -2.1 109 10690 days ago 10.1 9.2 -2.7 -2.1 111 108


Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Central Statistics Office Ireland (CSO) and Eurostat. See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.9 Real imports of goods and services, annual variation in %. Source: CSO.10 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.11 Exports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.12 Imports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.13 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: CSO.14 General government balance as % of GDP. Source: Eurostat.15 General government balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.16 Public debt as % of GDP. Source: Eurostat.




April 2015


17 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | in %




Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary and external sector data are from the Central Statistics Office Ireland (CSO). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.17 Inflation, annual average variation of harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) in %.18 Inflation, annual variation of quarterly average harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP)

in %.19 Inflation, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.20 Inflation, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.21 Current account balance as % of GDP.22 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last

18 months.

-1

0

1

2

3



-2

0

2

4

6

2000 2005 2010 2015

Ireland

Euro area

0

1

2

3



-1

0

1

2

3

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

IrelandEuro area


3

4

5

6

7


2015 2016

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016AIB Global Treasury -0.5 1.0 6.2 6.3Bank of Ireland 0.3 1.6 - -Citigroup Global Mkts 0.5 0.7 9.1 10.0Commerzbank 0.3 1.4 - -Credit Suisse 0.0 1.3 6.0 6.4Dan McLaughlin 0.0 1.0 4.9 4.5Davy - - 6.5 6.3DekaBank 0.5 1.4 4.6 3.9Deutsche Bank 0.1 1.8 5.0 4.5DZ Bank 0.0 0.8 5.8 5.3EIU -0.2 0.7 5.7 4.1ESRI 0.2 1.2 6.8 7.3Goodbody Stockbrokers 0.4 1.3 6.4 5.8IBEC 0.4 - - -Investec Ireland 0.5 1.2 4.4 4.3Nomura -0.1 0.7 - -Oxford Economics - - 5.0 3.8Raiffeisen Research -0.2 1.9 7.0 6.8UBS 0.5 1.2 6.0 6.4SummaryMinimum -0.5 0.7 4.4 3.8Maximum 0.5 1.9 9.1 10.0Median 0.2 1.2 6.0 5.8Consensus 0.2 1.2 6.0 5.7History30 days ago 0.2 1.1 5.5 5.260 days ago 0.4 1.2 5.6 5.790 days ago 0.8 1.3 5.4 5.4Additional ForecastsCentral Bank (Feb. 2015) 0.2 1.6 - -IMF (Oct. 2014) 0.9 1.2 - -Euro. Comm. (Feb. 2015) 0.3 1.3 - -

Prices (HICP) Current Acctvar. in % % of GDP


-8

-4

0

4

8

2000 2005 2010 2015

IrelandEuro area



April 2015

Fact Sheet

Ireland in the Region


Ireland1.8%

Germany28.1%

France20.7%

Italy15.6%

Spain10.2%

Other23.7%

Ireland1.4%

Germany24.3%

France19.2%

Italy18.0%

Spain14.0%

Other22.9%

U.S.A.13.2%

Other EU-27

13.7%

U.K.39.8%

Germany7.6%

Netherlands5.6%

Asia ex-Japan6.9%

Other13.2%

U.S.A.18.0%

Switzerland5.8%

Other EU-27

20.5%

U.K.17.3%

Belgium15.7%

Germany8.3%

Other14.4%

Other7.6%


Mineral Fuels13.6%

Food12.8%

Other5.0%


Food9.8%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

0

20

40

60

80

1002004-06 2007-09 2010-12

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002004-06 2007-09 2010-12

Agriculture

Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• Troubled property market• Large public debt

• High competitiveness

.

• Low corporate tax rate attracts inward investment

• One of the highest GDP per capita levels in the EU

• Small open economy sensitive to external demand shocks

Energy (2012)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 60.0Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 582Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 25.9Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 24.2Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 0.7Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 136CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 35.5

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: Baa1 StableS&P: A StableFitch Ratings: A- Stable


Transportation (2013) Airports: 40Railways (km): 3,237Roadways (km): 96,036Waterways (km): 956Chief Ports: Dublin, Cork, Shannon

Official name: IrelandCapital: Dublin (1.7m)Other cities: Cork (0.6m)Area (km2): 70,273Population (million, 2014 est.): 4.8Population density (per km2, 2014): 68.4Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 1.2Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 80.6Illiteracy rate (%, 2003): 1.0Language: English, IrishMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT

Prime Minister: Enda KennyLast elections: 25 February 2011Next elections: April 2016Central Bank Governor: Patrick Honohan

FOCUSECONOMICS Latvia


April 2015

Latvia

REAL SECTOR | Economic growth moderates less than previously estimatedAccording to revised data published by the National Statistics Office, GDP increased 2.1% over the same quarter of the previous year. The reading represented a mild deceleration compared to the 2.4% expansion registered in the third quarter, but was revised up from the 1.9% rise registered in a preliminary estimate.

A detraction from net exports to overall economic growth was the main driver behind Q4’s slowdown. Exports of goods and services increased 2.2% year-on-year in Q4, which came in above the 0.4% rise observed in Q3. Imports swung from a 0.7% contraction in Q3 to a 2.4% expansion in Q4. As imports’ growth outpaced that of exports, the net contribution from the external sector to overall economic growth deteriorated and fell from plus 0.7 percentage points in Q3 to minus 0.1 percentage points in Q4.

Domestic demand, on the other hand, improved in Q4. Private consumption increased 2.2% in Q4, which was slightly above the 2.1% rise in Q3. Government consumption accelerated the pace from a 2.3% increase in Q3




Latvia

2011-13 2014-16 2017-19Population (million): 2.1 2.0 2.0GDP (EUR bn): 21.8 25.0 29.6GDP per capita (EUR): 10,645 12,334 14,756GDP growth (%): 4.7 2.7 4.0Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -1.7 -1.2 -0.7Public Debt (% of GDP): 40.6 37.0 33.2Inflation (%): 2.2 1.1 2.5Current Account (% of GDP): -2.8 -2.6 -1.9


Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.Source: Central Statistics Bureau and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

0

2

4

6

8

10

Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015

%

A full breakdown of fourth quarter GDP data showed that the economy was more resilient than suggested by the preliminary estimate. However, with a 2.4% expansion recorded for the full year 2014, the economy expanded at a much slower pace than in 2013. Exports weakened throughout 2014 due to geopolitical tensions between Russia and Europe. Conversely, domestic demand held up relatively well. The first indicators for 2015 show that economic activity started on a negative note: Industrial production contracted 3.5% annually in January, which followed the 0.6% contraction observed in December. The reading marked the fastest contraction in a year.

Latvia’s economic prospects are gradually deteriorating. Although expectations of low oil prices, together with an accommodative monetary policy are expected to support domestic demand, tensions between the EU and Russia will continue to create uncertainty in various fronts of the economy. FocusEconomics panelists estimate that GDP will grow 2.5% in 2015, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate. Panelists expect that GDP growth will increase to 3.3% in 2016.

Inflation declined sharply toward the end of last year and Latvia is now on the brink of deflation. In January, harmonized consumer prices registered their first year-on-year decrease in over a year due to low oil prices. Although the weaker euro is offsetting lower energy prices, economists reduced Latvia’s inflation forecasts by 0.7 percentage points over the previous month and now expect HICP inflation to average 0.6% this year. In 2016, the panel sees inflation rising to an average of 1.9%.



April 2015

to a 4.1% expansion in Q4. Gross fixed investment rebounded and expanded 0.4% in Q4, which contrasted the 1.7% contraction observed in Q3.

A sequential comparison showed a brighter picture for the Latvian economy than the deceleration suggested by the annual data. GDP increased a seasonally-adjusted 0.6% in Q4 over the previous quarter, which came in above the 0.5% expansion observed in Q3. Q4’s result was revised up from a previous estimate that had GDP rising 0.4%.

The economy increased 2.4% in the full year 2014, which marked a deceleration compared to the 4.2% expansion in 2013.

The Central Bank expects the economy to expand 2.7% this year. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to grow 2.5% in 2015, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2016, panelists expect the economy to expand 3.3%.

REAL SECTOR | Industrial production drops to one-year lowIn January, industrial production contracted 3.5% over the same month last year. The reading followed the 0.6% drop observed in December and represented the fastest contraction since January 2014. January’s deterioration was solely the result of a massive contraction in electricity production and gas supply, which plummeted 19% annually. That said, manufacturing output and mining and quarrying rebounded in January.

A month-on-month comparison confirms the deterioration suggested by the annual data. Industrial production fell a seasonally-adjusted 3.1% over the previous month, which contrasted the 0.1% increase observed in December.

Meanwhile, the annual average variation in Industrial production in January was unchanged at December’s minus 0.9%.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect industrial production to expand 2.0% in 2015, which is down 1.2 percentage points over the previous month’s projection. For 2016, the panel expects growth in industrial output to pick up to 2.5%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Latvia registers second annual drop in consumer prices in FebruaryIn February, consumer prices rose 0.3% over the previous month, which came in above the 0.1% increase tallied in January. February’s increase was the result of higher prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages as well as for transport.

Consumer prices fell 0.1% over the same month last year in February, which followed the 0.4% drop observed in January. The reading marked the second annual decline in consumer prices since December 2013. Meanwhile, annual HICP consumer prices—based on the harmonized index of consumer prices— fell 0.3% annually in January, which is the last month for which data are available. The reading contrasted the 0.3% increase tallied in December. Annual average HICP inflation inched down from 0.7% in December to 0.6% in January. The Central Bank expects HICP inflation to average 1.4% in 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect HICP inflation to average 0.6% in 2015, which is down 0.7 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2016, the panel expects inflation to average 1.9%.


Note: Month-on-month and year-on-year variations of consumer price index in %.Source: Central Statistics Bureau.

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0



%%


Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average variation of industrial production index in %.Source: Central Statistics Bureau and FocusEconomics calculations.

-5

0

5

10



%



April 2015


Annual Data 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Real Sector Population (million) 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0GDP per capita (USD) 11,213 13,628 13,707 15,076 15,727 13,163 13,654 15,134 16,935 18,734GDP (USD bn) 23.8 28.3 28.0 30.7 32.0 26.7 27.6 30.5 34.0 37.5GDP per capita (EUR) 8,565 9,782 10,779 11,373 11,834 12,243 12,925 13,772 14,727 15,768GDP (EUR bn) 18.2 20.3 22.0 23.2 24.1 24.8 26.1 27.7 29.6 31.6Economic Growth (Nom. GDP, ann. var. in %) -3.9 11.7 8.6 5.2 3.7 3.1 5.3 6.2 6.6 6.7Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) -2.9 5.0 4.8 4.2 2.4 2.5 3.3 3.8 4.1 4.2Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 3.1 2.9 3.0 6.2 2.3 3.1 3.5 4.0 4.2 4.3Government Consumption (ann. var. in %) -8.1 3.1 0.4 2.9 3.6 - - - - -Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) -20.0 24.2 14.5 -5.2 1.6 2.3 4.6 5.5 5.7 5.9Industrial Production (annual var. in %) 14.8 9.0 6.2 -0.4 -1.0 2.0 2.5 4.0 4.0 4.1Retail Sales (annual var. in %) -3.0 2.4 7.3 3.8 3.5 4.9 5.6 5.6 5.7 6.0Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 18.7 16.2 15.1 11.9 10.9 9.9 9.1 8.6 8.0 7.7Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -8.2 -3.4 -0.8 -0.9 -1.2 -1.2 -1.0 -0.9 -0.7 -0.5Public Debt (% of GDP) 46.8 42.7 40.9 38.2 38.9 36.4 35.7 33.9 32.9 32.8Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual var. of M2 in %) 11.2 0.3 3.8 1.9 8.2 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) 2.5 4.1 1.6 -0.4 0.2 - - - - -Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, aop) -1.2 4.2 2.3 0.0 0.7 0.6 1.9 2.4 2.5 2.6Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %, aop) 3.1 7.7 3.7 1.5 0.4 - - - - -ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 1.00 1.00 0.75 0.25 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.39 0.76 1.543-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) 1.01 1.36 0.19 0.29 0.08 0.03 0.06 0.62 1.00 1.5710-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 3.50 6.63 5.25 5.25 3.12 - - - - -Stock Market (variation of OMXR in %) 41.1 -5.7 6.7 16.2 -11.3 - - - - -Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.34 1.30 1.32 1.38 1.21 1.04 1.07 1.13 1.17 1.20Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, aop) 1.33 1.39 1.29 1.33 1.33 1.08 1.06 1.10 1.15 1.19External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 2.3 -2.8 -3.3 -2.3 -3.1 -2.1 -2.6 -2.1 -2.0 -1.8Current Account Balance (EUR bn) 0.4 -0.6 -0.7 -0.5 -0.7 -0.5 -0.7 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6Merchandise Trade Balance (EUR bn) -1.7 -2.4 -2.6 -2.6 -2.3 -2.7 -2.9 -3.1 -3.3 -3.6Merchandise Exports (EUR bn) 6.7 8.5 9.9 10.0 10.2 10.9 11.4 12.1 13.0 14.0Merchandise Imports (EUR bn) 8.4 11.0 12.5 12.6 12.6 13.6 14.3 15.2 16.3 17.6Merchandise Exports (annual variation in %) 0.0 26.9 16.5 1.0 2.0 6.8 5.0 5.6 7.4 7.6Merchandise Imports (annual variation in %) 25.4 31.0 13.6 0.8 0.0 7.6 5.6 6.2 7.4 7.5External Debt (EUR bn) 30.1 29.6 30.3 30.5 33.4 29.9 31.2 32.3 32.8 33.5External Debt (% of GDP) 166 146 137 132 139 121 119 116 111 106 Quarterly Data Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 2.4 2.1 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.7Economic Growth (GDP, qoq variation in %) 0.5 0.6 - - - - - - - -Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, aop) 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.8 1.9 2.3 2.5ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.053-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) 0.08 0.08 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.06Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.26 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.06 1.07 Monthly Data May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15Industrial Production (annual variation in %) -0.1 -2.0 -2.0 -1.2 0.8 0.6 -2.2 -0.6 -3.5 -Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) -0.1 0.3 -0.4 -0.7 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.7 0.1 0.3Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.9 0.2 -0.4 -0.1Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %) 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.8 1.2 0.7 0.9 0.3 -0.4 -Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.36 1.37 1.34 1.32 1.26 1.25 1.25 1.21 1.13 1.12



April 2015


1 | Real GDP | 2000-2019 | var. in %







8 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Central Statistical Bureau (CSB) and Eurostat. See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: CSB.2 Quarterly GDP (non-seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.

Source: CSB.3 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: CSB.6 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: Eurostat.7 Unemployment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18



Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Capital Economics 1.7 2.0 -1.0 -1.0Citadele 2.4 3.4 -1.6 -1.2Danske Bank 2.6 3.1 - -DekaBank 2.6 3.3 -1.1 -1.0DNB 2.5 3.5 -1.0 -0.5EIU 2.8 3.5 -1.1 -1.0JPMorgan 3.9 3.6 -0.8 -0.8Nordea 2.9 4.1 -1.5 -1.0Oxford Economics 2.9 4.1 -1.1 -1.1SEB 1.8 2.8 -1.2 -1.2Swedbank 1.9 3.5 -1.5 -1.2WIIW 2.1 2.8 -1.3 -1.2SummaryMinimum 1.7 2.0 -1.6 -1.2Maximum 3.9 4.1 -0.8 -0.5Median 2.5 3.5 -1.1 -1.0Consensus 2.5 3.3 -1.2 -1.0History30 days ago 2.7 3.4 -1.2 -0.960 days ago 2.8 3.4 -1.2 -0.990 days ago 2.7 3.4 -1.2 -1.0Additional ForecastsCen. Bank (Dec. 2014) 2.7 - - -Euro. Comm. (Feb. 2015) 2.9 3.6 - -IMF (Oct. 2014) 3.2 3.4 - -


-20

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

LatviaEastern EuropeWorld

5

10

15

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

Latvia

Eastern Europe

-3

0

3

6

9

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

LatviaEastern EuropeWorld

1

2

3

4

5

6



1

2

3

4

5

6



8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0


2015 2016

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0


2015 2016

-10

-5

0

5

2000 2005 2010 2015

Latvia

Eastern Europe



April 2015


9 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | In %



10 | Inflation | Q1 12-Q4 16 | In % Inflation and Current Account Balance



Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary and externa sector data are from the Central Statistical Bureau (CSB) and the Bank of Latvia (BoL, Latvijas Banka). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 9 Inflation, annual average variation of harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) in %.

Source: CSB. 10 Inflation, annual variation of quarterly average harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP)

in %. Source: CSB. 11 Inflation, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.12 Inflation, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.13 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: BoL.14 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last

18 months.

-30

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10

2000 2005 2010 2015

Latvia

Eastern Europe-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5


2015 2016

-10

0

10

20

30

2000 2005 2010 2015

LatviaEastern Europe

-5

0

5

10

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

Latvia

Eastern Europe

-1

0

1

2

3

4



0

1

2

3

4

5



Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Capital Economics 0.3 1.5 -2.5 -2.5Citadele 0.8 2.0 -2.5 -2.6Danske Bank 0.8 1.9 -1.6 -1.9DekaBank - - -2.6 -2.9DNB - - -2.0 -3.0EIU 0.5 2.1 -2.6 -2.6JPMorgan 0.5 1.2 -0.3 -0.7Nordea - - -2.5 -3.0Oxford Economics 0.9 2.4 - -SEB 0.3 1.7 -1.1 -1.1Swedbank 0.5 2.5 -2.6 -4.3WIIW 0.8 2.2 -3.2 -3.5SummaryMinimum 0.3 1.2 -3.2 -4.3Maximum 0.9 2.5 -0.3 -0.7Median 0.5 2.0 -2.5 -2.6Consensus 0.6 1.9 -2.1 -2.6History30 days ago 1.3 2.1 -1.7 -2.260 days ago 1.8 2.2 -1.6 -2.090 days ago 1.8 2.1 -2.1 -2.2Additional ForecastsCen. Bank (Dec. 2014) 1.4 - - -Euro. Comm. (Feb. 2015) 0.9 1.9 - -IMF (Oct. 2014) 1.6 1.9 - -

HICP Current Accountvariation in % % of GDP



April 2015

Fact Sheet

Latvia in the Region


Latvia 30.2%

Lithuania 45.6%

Estonia24.2%Latvia

32.2%

Lithuania 46.8%

Estonia21.1%

Russia9.2%

Other EU-27

32.1%

Lithuania19.1%

Germany11.6%

Poland8.2%

Other19.8%

Russia18.2%

Other EU-27

24.4%

Lithuania14.8%

Estonia12.1%

Germany7.5%

Other23.0%

Other12.7%


Mineral Fuels16.2%

Food13.8%

Other9.3%


Mineral Fuels7.2%

Agric. Raw Mat.

10.3%

Food16.9%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1202003-05 2006-08 2009-11

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002002-04 2005-07 2008-10

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• High private debt• Small domestic market

• Strong dependency on energy supply from Russia

• Strategic location between Russia and European Union• EU membership provides support against financial crisis

Energy (2012) Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 39.0Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 169Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 6.0Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 7.1Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 32.4CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 7.9

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: A3 StableS&P: A- StableFitch Ratings: A- Stable


Transportation (2013) Airports: 42Railways (km): 2,239Roadways (km): 72,440Waterways (km): 300Chief Ports: Riga, Ventspils

Official name: Republic of LatviaCapital: Riga (1.1m)Area (km2): 64,589Population (million, 2014 est.): 2.0Population density (per km2, 2014): 31.5Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): -0.6Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 73.4Illiteracy rate (%, 2011): 0.2Language: Latvian, RussianMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT+2

Prime Minister: Laimdota StraujumaLast elections: 4 October 2014Next elections: October 2018Central Bank President: Ilmars Rimsevics

FOCUSECONOMICS Lithuania


April 2015

Lithuania

REAL SECTOR | Economic growth slows in Q4 to over two-year lowIn Q4 2014, GDP grew 2.4% over the same period of the previous year, according to revised data published on 27 February. The result met the flash estimate, but was down from the 2.7% expansion recorded in the third quarter and marked the slowest growth since Q2 2012. The weaker performance of the external sector was mainly behind the slowdown.

In the full year 2014, GDP grew 2.9%, which was down from 2013’s 3.3% increase.

On the domestic side, private consumption growth picked up from 4.0% in Q3 to 6.0% in Q4. Government consumption increased 1.4% over the same period of the previous year (Q3: +1.1% year-on-year). Fixed investment edged down to a 4.4% increase in Q4 (Q3: +4.8% yoy).

On the external side, exports of goods and services slowed from a 6.2% expansion in the third quarter to a 4.1% increase in the fourth. Simultaneously, imports’ growth accelerated from Q3’s 4.6% increase to a 9.1% expansion. As exports slowed down while imports picked up, the external sector’s net contribution to overall economic growth deteriorated from plus 1.3 percentage points in the third quarter to minus 3.9 percentage points in the fourth.

Outlook moderates



Lithuania

2011-13 2014-16 2017-19Population (million): 3.0 2.9 2.9GDP (EUR bn): 33.2 37.8 44.2GDP per capita (EUR): 11,075 12,834 15,265GDP growth (%): 4.4 3.0 3.9Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -4.9 -1.4 -0.9Public Debt (% of GDP): 38.7 39.3 36.2Inflation (%): 2.8 0.8 2.1Current Account (% of GDP): -1.1 -0.8 -1.2External Debt (% of GDP): 75.9 66.6 65.1


Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.Source: Statistics Lithuania and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

0

2

4

6

8

Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015

%

The economy continued to slow down in the fourth quarter of 2014, expanding 2.4% in annual terms, which was the smallest gain in two and a half years. The external sector’s subdued performance was mainly behind the slowdown, reflecting economic struggles in Russia—Lithuania’s main exports destination outside the European Union. Moreover, industrial production expanded at the slowest rate in five months in January. On 27 February, liquefied natural gas importer Litgas signed a preliminary agreement to buy gas from an U.S. supplier in a move aimed to reduce the country’s strong dependence on Russian gas deliveries.

Lithuania’s growth prospects moderates slightly as subdued growth in the Euro area along with ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic weakness in Russia pose downside risks. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see the economy growing 2.7% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel expects the economy to expand 3.4%.

In January, harmonized consumer prices registered the steepest drop since February 2003, falling 1.4% in annual terms (December: -0.1% year-on-year). January’s decline reflected dropping prices for several items, including transport and communications. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect HICP inflation to average 0.7% in 2015 and 1.6% in 2016.



April 2015

A quarter-on-quarter analysis does not corroborate the deceleration suggested by annual figures; GDP expanded a seasonally- and working-day adjusted 0.6% in Q4 over the previous quarter, which was a tad above 0.5% increase registered in the third quarter.

The Central Bank expects GDP to grow 3.1% in 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see the economy growing 2.7% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2016, the panel expects GDP to expand 3.4%.

REAL SECTOR | Industrial production decelerates in JanuaryIn January, industrial production expanded 1.2% over the same month of last year, which was below the 3.8% increase recorded in December and marked the lowest print in five months. The moderation reflects that large contractions in several sectors, including mining and quarrying as well as electricity, gas and steam, more than offset a mild pick-up in manufacturing.

On a sequential basis, industrial production decreased 2.2% over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, coming in above the 2.8% fall recorded in December. Annual average growth in industrial production improved from 0.1% in December to 0.8% in January.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect industrial production to increase 2.3% year, which is down 1.0 percentage points over last month’s estimate. The panel expects industrial production to accelerate to a 3.5% expansion in 2016.

MONETARY SECTOR | Consumer prices register largest drop in 12 yearsIn February, consumer prices decreased 0.3% over the previous month, which was up from the 1.3% decrease registered in January. According to the statistical institute, the result was mainly driven by lower prices for foodstuff, fuel and clothing.

In annual terms, consumer prices fell 1.8%, which followed January’s 1.5% drop and represented the largest decrease since February 2003. Meanwhile, harmonized consumer prices (based on the harmonized index of consumer prices) fell 1.4% in January, which is the last month for which data are available, coming in further below December’s 0.1% decline. Annual average HICP inflation inched down from December’s 0.2% to 0.1% in January.

The Central Bank expects HICP inflation to average 1.2% in 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect harmonized inflation to average 0.7% in 2015, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2016, the panel sees inflation at 1.6%.


Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average growth of industrial production index in %.Source: Statistics Lithuania and FocusEconomics calculations.

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Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month variation of consumer price index in %.Source: Statistics Lithuania and FocusEconomics calculations.

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April 2015


Annual Data 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Real Sector Population (million) 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9GDP per capita (USD) 11,818 14,399 14,190 15,579 16,334 13,731 14,229 15,745 17,550 19,312GDP (USD bn) 36.6 43.6 42.4 46.3 48.3 40.4 41.7 45.9 50.9 55.7GDP per capita (EUR) 9,041 10,304 11,145 11,777 12,276 12,765 13,463 14,304 15,237 16,254GDP (EUR bn) 28.0 31.2 33.3 35.0 36.3 37.6 39.4 41.7 44.2 46.9Economic Growth (Nom. GDP, ann. var. in %) 4.1 11.4 6.7 5.1 3.7 3.5 5.0 5.7 6.0 6.2Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 1.6 6.1 3.8 3.3 2.9 2.7 3.4 3.7 4.0 4.0Total Consumption (annual var. in %) -3.4 3.6 3.0 3.7 4.6 - - - - -Private Consumption (annual var. in %) -3.4 4.6 3.6 4.2 5.6 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.3Government Consumption (ann. var. in %) -3.5 0.3 1.2 1.8 1.3 - - - - -Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) 1.4 19.4 -1.6 7.0 8.0 4.9 6.3 6.1 6.1 5.6Industrial Production (annual var. in %) 6.3 6.8 3.7 3.8 0.1 2.3 3.5 4.0 3.9 3.8Retail Sales (annual variation in %) -6.7 6.1 3.8 4.3 5.7 - - - - -Unemployment (aop, % of active population) 17.8 15.4 13.4 11.8 10.7 10.1 9.4 9.1 8.5 8.4Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -6.9 -9.0 -3.2 -2.6 -1.8 -1.5 -1.0 -1.0 -0.9 -0.8Public Debt (% of GDP) 36.3 37.3 39.9 39.0 40.2 40.0 37.6 36.6 36.2 35.9Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M2 in %) 9.4 4.8 7.2 4.9 1.5 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) 3.8 3.4 2.8 0.4 -0.3 - - - - -Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, aop) 1.2 4.1 3.2 1.2 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.1 2.1 2.2Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %, aop) 10.3 13.8 5.0 -2.4 -4.9 - - - - -ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 1.00 1.00 0.75 0.25 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.39 0.76 1.543-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) 1.01 1.36 0.19 0.29 0.08 0.03 0.06 0.62 1.00 1.5710-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 4.99 6.40 4.09 3.80 2.00 - - - - -Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.34 1.30 1.32 1.38 1.21 1.04 1.07 1.13 1.17 1.20Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, aop) 1.33 1.39 1.29 1.33 1.33 1.08 1.06 1.10 1.15 1.19External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -0.3 -3.9 -1.2 1.6 -0.5 -0.7 -1.1 -1.1 -1.2 -1.2Current Account Balance (EUR bn) -0.1 -1.2 -0.4 0.6 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6Merchandise Trade Balance (EUR bn) -2.0 -2.7 -1.8 -1.7 -2.1 -2.7 -3.0 -3.1 -3.4 -3.8Merchandise Exports (EUR bn) 15.7 20.2 23.0 24.5 24.4 24.3 25.4 26.9 28.5 30.4Merchandise Imports (EUR bn) 17.7 22.8 24.9 26.2 26.5 27.0 28.4 29.9 32.0 34.3Merchandise Exports (annual var. in %) 33.1 28.7 13.9 6.5 -0.4 -0.4 4.4 5.9 6.2 6.7Merchandise Imports (annual var. in %) 35.1 28.8 9.2 5.2 1.1 2.0 4.9 5.6 6.7 7.2External Debt (EUR bn) 24.0 25.0 25.9 24.4 24.2 24.9 26.3 27.4 28.7 30.2External Debt (% of GDP) 85.8 80.3 77.8 69.7 66.7 66.4 66.8 65.7 65.0 64.5 Quarterly Data Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 2.7 2.4 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.7Economic Growth (GDP, qoq variation in %) 0.5 0.6 - - - - - - - -Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, aop) 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.8ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.053-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) 0.08 0.08 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.06Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.26 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.06 1.07 Monthly Data May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 8.5 1.3 4.5 -5.3 2.3 1.3 6.1 3.8 1.2 -Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) -0.1 0.0 -0.5 -0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.6 -1.3 -0.3Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.3 -1.5 -1.8Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %) 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.4 -0.1 -1.4 -Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.36 1.37 1.34 1.32 1.26 1.25 1.25 1.21 1.13 1.12



April 2015


1 | Real GDP | 2000-2019 | var. in %








General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from Statistics Lithuania (SL, Statistikos Departementas) and Eurostat. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: SL.2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.

Source: SL. 3 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: SL.6 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: Eurostat.7 Unemployment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18



Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Capital Economics 2.0 2.0 - -Danske Bank 2.5 3.1 - -DNB 2.6 3.0 -1.8 -1.0EIU 2.9 3.1 -1.7 -1.7JPMorgan 3.5 4.0 -1.5 -1.2Nordea 2.8 4.3 -2.0 -1.0Oxford Economics 3.6 4.6 -0.6 -0.6SEB 2.6 3.5 -1.5 -0.5Swedbank 2.3 3.5 -1.6 -1.0WIIW 2.4 2.9 -1.4 -1.0SummaryMinimum 2.0 2.0 -2.0 -1.7Maximum 3.6 4.6 -0.6 -0.5Median 2.6 3.3 -1.6 -1.0Consensus 2.7 3.4 -1.5 -1.0History30 days ago 2.8 3.4 -1.5 -1.060 days ago 2.9 3.5 -1.7 -1.390 days ago 2.8 3.3 -1.8 -1.5Additional ForecastsCentral Bank (Dec. 2014) 3.1 - - -IMF (Oct. 2014) 3.3 3.7 - -Eur. Comm. (Feb. 2015) 3.0 3.4 - -


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April 2015


9 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | in %






Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary and external sector data are from Statistics Lithuania (SL, Statistikos Departementas) and the Bank of Lithuania (LB, Lietuvos Bankas). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 9 Inflation, annual average variation of harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) in %

Source: SL.10 Inflation, annual variation of quarterly average harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP)

in %. Source: SL.11 Inflation, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.12 Inflation, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.13 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: LB.14 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last

18 months.

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Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Capital Economics 0.3 1.5 - -Danske Bank 0.6 1.6 -0.9 -0.7DNB 1.2 2.0 -0.5 -2.0EIU 1.1 1.2 -1.2 -1.2JPMorgan 0.2 1.0 1.2 1.0Nordea 1.5 2.3 -3.0 -2.0Oxford Economics - - 1.2 0.6SEB 0.4 0.7 -1.0 -2.0Swedbank 0.7 2.0 -1.7 -3.2WIIW 0.6 1.8 -0.8 -0.9SummaryMinimum 0.2 0.7 -3.0 -3.2Maximum 1.5 2.3 1.2 1.0Median 0.6 1.6 -0.9 -1.2Consensus 0.7 1.6 -0.7 -1.1History30 days ago 1.0 1.8 -0.5 -0.960 days ago 1.2 1.8 -0.4 -0.990 days ago 1.3 2.0 -0.9 -1.5Additional ForecastsCentral Bank (Dec. 2014) 0.9 - - -IMF (Oct. 2014) 1.3 2.0 - -Eur. Comm. (Feb. 2015) 0.4 1.6 - -




April 2015

Fact Sheet

Lithuania in the Region


Lithuania 45.8%

Latvia 29.8%

Estonia24.4%

Lithuania 46.8%

Latvia 32.2%

Estonia21.1%

Russia31.6%

Other EU-27

26.4%

Germany10.0%

Poland9.9%

Latvia6.2%

Other16.0%

Russia19.0%

Other EU-27

28.3%

Latvia11.0%

Germany7.9%

Estonia7.8%

Other26.0%

Other6.0%


Mineral Fuels33.0%

Food12.1%

Other5.6%


Mineral Fuels24.5%

Food16.9%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

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Investment


PrivateConsumption

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1002001-03 2004-06 2007-09

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• Open economic structure • Small domestic market• Sizeable external imbalances• Limited fiscal discipline

.

• EU membership guarantees stable legal system• Adoption of the euro as official currency in January 2015

Energy (2012)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 16.0Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 308Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 3.9Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 9.7Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 9.1Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 72.7CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 16.7

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: Baa1 PositiveS&P: A- StableFitch Ratings: A- Stable


Transportation (2013) Airports: 61Railways (km): 1,767Roadways (km): 84,166Waterways (km): 441Chief Ports: Klaipeda

Official name: Republic of LithuaniaCapital: Vilnius (0.8m)Other cities: Kaunas (0.6m)Area (km2): 65,300Population (million, 2014 est.): 3.0Population density (per km2, 2014): 45.3Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): -0.3Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 76.0Illiteracy rate (%, 2011): 0.3Language: Lithuanian, Russian

and PolishMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT+2

Prime Minister: Algirdas ButkevičiusLast elections: 14 October 2012Next elections: 2016Central Bank President: Vitas Vasiliauskas

FOCUSECONOMICS Netherlands


April 2015

Netherlands

REAL SECTOR | Economy picks up in Q4; returns to full-year economic growth in 2014In the fourth quarter of 2014, GDP increased 0.8% in seasonally-adjusted terms over the previous quarter, according to more detailed data released by Statistics Netherlands on 26 March. The reading came in above both the preliminary estimate and market expectations of a 0.5% increase. Moreover, the reading marked an improvement compared to the 0.3% expansion recorded in Q3 and the largest expansion since Q1 2011. According to Statistics Netherlands, Q4’s acceleration resulted from stronger fixed investment, private consumption, and a better performance of the external sector.

Private consumption grew 0.6% over the previous quarter, which came in above the 0.2% increase observed in Q3. Government consumption deteriorated from Q3’s 0.2% contraction to a 0.6% decline in Q4. On the other hand, fixed investment growth sped up from a 2.4% rise in Q3 to a 5.1% expansion, thus recording the fastest growth rhythm since Q1 2011.

On the external front, growth in exports of goods and services fell from 0.9% in Q3 to 0.5% in Q4. Imports of goods and services also decelerated, growing 0.7% in Q4 (Q3: +1.6% quarter-on-quarter). As a result, the external

Outlook improves



Netherlands

2011-13 2014-16 2017-19Population (million): 16.7 16.9 17.0GDP (EUR bn): 642 668 728GDP per capita (EUR): 38,338 39,509 42,702GDP growth (%): -0.2 1.3 1.8Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -3.5 -2.1 -1.2Public Debt (% of GDP): 65.5 69.7 68.8Inflation (%): 2.6 0.5 1.5Current Account (% of GDP): 10.3 10.0 8.5

Following two years in recession, the Dutch economy returned to modest growth last year. While exports made the largest contribution to the expansion, fixed investment rebounded and private consumption posted the first mild gain in three years, showing that the recovery is broadening. Consumer confidence turned positive for the first time since 2007 and business confidence continued to be robust in March, suggesting that the domestic economy will continue to gain momentum going forward. In the political arena, results from the 18 March provincial elections, which indirectly determine the composition of the upper house of the Parliament, show that the center-right government coalition will lose one-third of its seats in the Senate in May. As a consequence, the government will have to rely more on support from other parties and the implementation of reforms should become even more difficult.

FocusEconomics panelists’ assessment of the Netherlands’ economic prospects is now more positive on expectations that solid exports and increasing consumption will sustain growth. Panelists see GDP expanding 1.5% in 2015, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2016, they expect the economy to expand 1.6%.

In February, harmonized consumer prices fell 0.5% annually, which was slightly up from January’s historical sharp decline of 0.7%. Panelists expect harmonized consumer prices to be flat in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. For 2016, the panel sees inflation averaging 1.0%.


Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally adjusted GDP and year-on-year variation in %.Source: Statistics Netherlands (CBS) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015



% %



April 2015

sector’s net contribution to overall economic growth advanced from minus 0.4 percentage points in Q3 to minus 0.1 percentage points in Q4.

The economy grew 1.4% in the fourth quarter over the same quarter of the previous year, which was up from Q3’s 1.0% expansion. In the full year 2014, the economy expanded 0.9%, which contrasted 2013’s 0.7% contraction and marked the first year of growth following two years of shrinking GDP.

The Central Bank expects GDP to expand 1.7% in 2015 and sees growth picking up to 1.8% in 2016. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP growing 1.5% in 2015, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2016, the panel expects the economy to expand 1.6%.

OUTLOOK | Consumer confidence jumps to positive territory for first time in over seven yearsThe seasonally-adjusted consumer confidence indicator produced by the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) swung from February’s minus 7.0 points to plus 2.0 points in March. As a result, for the first time since August 2007, the index jumped above the 0-point threshold, which indicates that optimists outnumber pessimists.

Consumer confidence in March increased mainly as households assessed the general economic climate much more positively than in the previous month. According to the CBS, this improvement is, “probably due to the positive news about the economy and the labour market in the past month.” In addition, consumers’ willingness to buy was slightly less negative than in February.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see private consumption expanding 1.0% in 2015, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2016, the panel expects private consumption to also grow 1.0%.

OUTLOOK | Business confidence moderates again but remains in positive territory in MarchThe producer confidence indicator, which measures Dutch manufacturers’ sentiment, declined from 2.0 points in February to a six-month low of 1.4 points in March, according to the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS). This marks the third drop after three consecutive increases. However, the index still remains above the 0-point threshold that separates optimistic from pessimistic sentiment.

According to the CBS, March’s slight deterioration resulted from the fact that producers were more negative about their future output. Conversely, manufacturers assessed their order books and their stocks of finished products more positively than in the previous month.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see fixed investment rising 3.5% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month’s estimate. For 2016, the panel expects fixed investment to increase 2.9%.

Business Confidence

Note: Value of producer confidence indicator index. The 0-point threshold separates optimistic from pessimistic sentiment.Source: Statistics Netherlands (CBS).

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Note: Value of consumer confidence indicator index. The 0-point threshold separates optimistic from pessimistic sentiment.Source: Statistics Netherlands (CBS).

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April 2015


Annual Data 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Real Sector Population (million) 16.6 16.7 16.8 16.8 16.9 16.9 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.1GDP per capita (EUR) 38,008 38,515 38,238 38,260 38,894 39,389 40,245 41,372 42,672 44,060GDP (EUR bn) 632 643 641 643 655 665 683 704 727 752Economic Growth (Nom. GDP, ann. var. in %) 2.2 1.8 -0.4 0.3 1.9 1.5 2.6 3.0 3.4 3.5Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 1.1 1.7 -1.6 -0.7 0.9 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.9Domestic Demand (annual variation in %) 0.1 0.8 -2.4 -2.0 0.5 - - - - -Private Consumption (annual var. in %) -0.1 0.2 -1.4 -1.6 0.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.4Government Consumption (ann. var. in %) 1.1 -0.3 -1.6 -0.3 -0.3 - - - - -Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) -5.6 5.6 -6.0 -4.0 3.4 3.5 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7Exports (G&S, annual variation in %) 8.9 4.4 3.3 2.0 4.0 3.6 3.8 3.4 3.3 3.3Imports (G&S, annual variation in %) 8.3 3.5 2.8 0.8 4.0 3.3 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.3Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 7.6 -0.5 -0.5 0.6 -2.9 0.8 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 5.0 5.0 5.8 7.3 7.4 7.1 6.8 7.2 7.1 6.9Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -5.0 -4.3 -4.0 -2.3 -2.3 -2.1 -1.8 -1.4 -1.3 -1.0Public Debt (% of GDP) 59.0 61.3 66.5 68.6 68.8 70.3 70.0 69.1 68.9 68.3Monetary and Financial Sector Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, eop) 1.8 2.5 3.4 1.4 -0.1 - - - - -Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, aop) 0.9 2.5 2.8 2.6 0.3 0.0 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.6Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %, eop) 8.6 10.2 3.2 -1.3 -2.0 - - - - -ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 1.00 1.00 0.75 0.25 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.39 0.76 1.543-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) 1.01 1.36 0.19 0.29 0.08 0.03 0.06 0.62 1.00 1.5710-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 3.14 2.20 1.50 2.23 0.68 0.61 1.30 1.20 1.64 1.92Stock Market (var. of AEX in %) 5.7 -11.9 9.7 17.2 5.6 - - - - -Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.34 1.30 1.32 1.38 1.21 1.04 1.07 1.13 1.17 1.20Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, aop) 1.33 1.39 1.29 1.33 1.33 1.08 1.06 1.10 1.15 1.19External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 7.5 8.8 11.0 11.0 10.3 10.0 9.7 9.0 8.4 8.1Current Account Balance (EUR bn) 47.5 56.8 70.5 70.4 67.5 66.6 66.2 63.6 61.2 60.8Trade Balance (EUR bn) 39.6 44.4 40.3 46.8 49.8 - - - - - Quarterly Data Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7Economic Growth (GDP, s.a. qoq var. in %) 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, aop) 0.3 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.053-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) 0.08 0.08 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.0610-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 1.09 0.68 0.40 0.48 0.58 0.61 0.81 1.01 1.10 1.30Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.26 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.06 1.07 Monthly Data Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15Industrial Production (annual variation in %) -2.6 1.2 -0.3 0.6 -0.3 -0.6 -1.9 -1.5 - -Unemployment (% of active population) 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.1 -Consumer Confidence Index -3 -2 -6 -7 -3 -8 -7 -6 -7 2Business Confidence Index 0.7 1.2 0.0 -0.2 2.0 2.4 3.4 2.8 2.0 1.4NEVI Manufacturing PMI (50-threshold) 52.3 53.5 51.7 52.2 53.0 54.6 53.5 54.1 52.2 -Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 -0.1 -0.7 -0.5 -Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.37 1.34 1.32 1.26 1.25 1.25 1.21 1.13 1.12 -Exports (annual variation in %) 1.4 0.4 -4.6 6.6 1.2 -2.3 2.7 -5.8 - -



April 2015


1 | Real GDP | 2000-2019 | var. in %




Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from Statistics Netherlands (CBS, Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.1 GDP, annual variation in %.2 Quarterly GDP, year-on-year variation in %.3 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 Private consumption, annual variation in %.6 Private consumption, change in 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.7 Gross fixed capital formation, annual variation in %.8 Real exports of goods and services, annual variation in %.

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6

2000 2005 2010 2015


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016ABN AMRO Bank 1.6 2.1Citigroup Global Mkts 1.4 1.9Commerzbank 1.5 1.6Credit Suisse 1.7 2.0DekaBank 1.6 1.7Deutsche Bank 1.7 1.1DIW Berlin 1.8 1.8DZ Bank 1.5 1.5EIU 0.9 1.4ING 1.6 1.8NIBC Bank 1.8 0.0Nomura 1.2 1.0Oxford Economics 1.4 1.4Rabobank 1.7 1.8Raiffeisen Research 1.5 2.2UBS 1.8 2.0SummaryMinimum 0.9 0.0Maximum 1.8 2.2Median 1.6 1.8Consensus 1.5 1.6History30 days ago 1.4 1.560 days ago 1.4 1.590 days ago 1.4 1.5Additional ForecastsCentral Bank (Mar. 2015) 1.7 1.8Euro. Comm. (Feb. 2015) 1.4 1.7IMF (Oct. 2014) 1.4 1.6



April 2015


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016ABN AMRO Bank 1.3 1.5 3.8 4.9 4.4 5.4 4.8 5.5Citigroup Global Mkts 1.1 1.0 2.9 2.3 3.2 3.4 2.5 2.8Commerzbank - - - - - - - -Credit Suisse 1.0 1.4 4.9 5.0 - - - -DekaBank - - - - - - - -Deutsche Bank 1.0 0.8 - - 2.6 1.5 2.6 1.6DIW Berlin - - - - - - - -DZ Bank 1.2 1.2 2.9 2.7 4.3 4.8 4.3 5.0EIU 0.4 0.7 1.4 2.3 1.4 1.8 1.1 1.4ING 1.0 1.2 4.1 3.4 - - - -NIBC Bank 1.4 0.9 4.0 0.0 - - - -Nomura 0.8 0.4 2.7 0.4 3.3 3.2 2.7 2.8Oxford Economics 0.5 0.8 2.4 2.1 3.0 3.6 2.2 3.1Rabobank 1.4 1.3 4.7 3.4 5.3 5.0 5.0 5.1Raiffeisen Research - - - - - - - -UBS 0.8 0.9 4.7 5.3 4.5 5.5 4.5 5.7SummaryMinimum 0.4 0.4 1.4 0.0 1.4 1.5 1.1 1.4Maximum 1.4 1.5 4.9 5.3 5.3 5.5 5.0 5.7Median 1.0 1.0 3.8 2.7 3.3 3.6 2.7 3.1Consensus 1.0 1.0 3.5 2.9 3.6 3.8 3.3 3.7History30 days ago 0.9 1.0 3.6 3.1 3.7 3.7 3.4 3.760 days ago 0.8 0.9 2.5 2.4 3.7 3.5 3.7 3.490 days ago 0.8 0.8 2.5 2.9 3.8 3.5 3.8 3.3

Consumption Investment Exports Importsvariation in % variation in % variation in % variation in %


-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

2000 2005 2010 2015



-20

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015



-20

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015



2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0


2015 2016


3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5


2015 2016


3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5


2015 2016



April 2015






40

60

80

100

2000 2005 2010 2015

Netherlands

Euro area

3

5

7

9

11

13

2000 2005 2010 2015

Netherlands

Euro area

-3.5

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5


2015 2016

-9

-6

-3

0

3

2000 2005 2010 2015

Netherlands

Euro area

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016ABN AMRO Bank 6.7 6.2 -1.9 -1.4 69.2 68.5Citigroup Global Mkts - - -2.0 -1.8 69.8 69.5Commerzbank - - - - - -Credit Suisse - - -2.0 -1.8 70.5 70.5DekaBank - - -2.1 -1.8 - -Deutsche Bank - - -2.0 -1.9 70.0 70.0DIW Berlin 6.8 6.5 - - - -DZ Bank - - -2.3 -1.8 70.8 69.8EIU - - -2.0 -1.5 70.1 69.5ING 7.0 6.7 -1.8 -1.2 68.7 67.8NIBC Bank - - -1.8 -2.3 - -Nomura 7.1 6.7 -2.4 -2.4 71.4 72.4Oxford Economics 8.0 7.9 -1.9 -1.6 70.5 70.3Rabobank 7.0 6.6 -2.2 -2.0 70.0 70.0Raiffeisen Research - - -2.2 -1.8 70.5 70.5UBS - - -2.4 -2.0 71.7 70.8SummaryMinimum 6.7 6.2 -2.4 -2.4 68.7 67.8Maximum 8.0 7.9 -1.8 -1.2 71.7 72.4Median 7.0 6.7 -2.0 -1.8 70.3 70.0Consensus 7.1 6.8 -2.1 -1.8 70.3 70.0History30 days ago 7.5 7.2 -2.1 -1.9 70.2 69.760 days ago 7.8 7.6 -2.1 -1.8 71.3 70.790 days ago 7.8 7.7 -2.1 -1.9 72.6 72.1

Unemployment Fiscal Balance Public Debt % of active pop. % of GDP % of GDP

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from Statistics Netherlands (CBS, Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek) and Eurostat. See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.9 Real imports of goods and services, annual variation in %. Source: CBS.10 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.11 Exports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.12 Imports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.13 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: CBS.14 General government balance as % of GDP. Source: Eurostat.15 General government balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.16 Public debt as % of GDP. Source: Eurostat.




April 2015


17 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | in %




Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary and external sector data are from Statistics Netherlands (CBS, Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek), the Central Bank (DNB, De Nederlandsche Bank). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 17 Inflation, annual average variation of harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) in %.

Source: CBS.18 Inflation, annual variation of quarterly average harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP)

in %. Source: CBS.19 Inflation, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.20 Inflation, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.21 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: DNB.22 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last

18 months.

-1

0

1

2

3



-2

0

2

4

6

2000 2005 2010 2015

Netherlands

Euro area

0

1

2

3



-1

0

1

2

3

4

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16



9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5


2015 2016

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016ABN AMRO Bank - - 9.9 9.6Citigroup Global Mkts 0.1 1.2 8.9 7.8Commerzbank -0.1 0.4 - -Credit Suisse 0.1 1.0 10.7 10.8DekaBank 0.1 1.5 - -Deutsche Bank 0.0 1.3 11.4 11.5DIW Berlin 0.2 0.7 - -DZ Bank 0.0 0.7 10.7 10.0EIU -0.2 0.7 9.4 8.8ING -0.2 1.9 - -NIBC Bank 0.0 0.7 - -Nomura 0.1 0.9 - -Oxford Economics - - 10.2 10.2Rabobank -0.3 0.7 - -Raiffeisen Research -0.2 1.3 10.0 10.0UBS 0.4 1.5 8.9 8.6SummaryMinimum -0.3 0.4 8.9 7.8Maximum 0.4 1.9 11.4 11.5Median 0.0 1.0 10.0 10.0Consensus 0.0 1.0 10.0 9.7History30 days ago 0.0 1.0 10.0 9.760 days ago 0.4 1.1 9.9 9.590 days ago 0.7 1.3 9.9 9.6Additional ForecastsCentral Bank (Mar. 2015) -0.1 0.9 - -Euro. Comm. (Feb. 2015) 0.4 0.7 - -IMF (Oct. 2014) 0.9 1.1 - -




-3

0

3

6

9

12

2000 2005 2010 2015




April 2015

Fact Sheet

Netherlands in the Region


Netherlands6.4%

Germany28.1%

France20.7%

Italy15.6%

Spain10.2%

Other19.1%

Netherlands5.1%

Germany24.3%

France19.2%Italy

18.0%

Spain14.0%

Other19.3%

Russia6.4% U.S.A.

6.1%

Other EU-27

16.7%

Germany13.8%

Belgium8.3%

U.K.6.7%

Other Asia ex-Japan

6.9%

China12.0%

Other23.2%

Other EU-27

20.5%

Germany26.6%

Belgium13.7%

France8.8%

Other30.4%

Other10.4%


Mineral Fuels19.4%

Food11.3%

Other13.3%


Mineral Fuels12.5%

Food14.7%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

0

20

40

60

80

1002004-06 2007-09 2010-12

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002004-06 2007-09 2010-12

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• Diversified exports • Collapsed property market• Large household debt

• Banking sector under strain

• Economy dependent on European neighbors

• One of the highest GDP per capita levels in the EU• Public debt under control


Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: Aaa StableS&P: AA+ StableFitch Ratings: AAA Stable


Transportation (2013) Airports: 29Railways (km): 3,013Roadways (km): 139,295Waterways (km): 6,237Chief Ports: Amsterdam, Rotterdam

Official name: Kingdom of the Netherlands

Capital: Amsterdam (3.7m)Other cities: Rotterdam (2.8m)Area (km2): 41,543Population (million, 2014 est.): 16.9Population density (per km2, 2014): 406Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 0.4Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 81.1Illiteracy rate (%, 2003): 1.0Language: DutchMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT+1

Prime Minister: Mark RutteLast elections: 12 September 2012Next elections: March 2017Central Bank Governor: Klaas Knot

FOCUSECONOMICS Portugal


April 2015

Portugal

REAL SECTOR | Drop in industrial production slightly less pronounced in February In February, industrial production declined 1.0% over the same month of last year, which marked a slight improvement compared to the revised 1.3% fall tallied in January (previously reported: -2.1% year-on-year). According to Statistics Portugal (INE), February’s less pronounced decrease in industrial output was the result of a strong rebound in the electricity, gas and water sector as well as a sharp increase in mining. The electricity sector swung from a 7.2% fall in January to a healthy 2.8% rise in February. The mining sector accelerated from January’s 20.1% increase to a strong 30.7% rise in February, marking the highest reading since October 2011. Manufacturing was the only sector that deteriorated compared to the previous month’s result, contracting 2.0% in February (January: -0.1% yoy).

Compared to the previous month, industrial output fell a seasonally-adjusted 0.5% in February. The result contrasted the 1.6% rise tallied in January. Annual average growth continued to worsen in February, falling to 0.2% from January’s 0.6% increase.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect industrial production to rise 1.6% in 2015, which is down 0.5 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, participants expect industrial output to expand 3.0%.

Outlook improves



2011-13 2014-16 2017-19Population (million): 10.6 10.5 10.5GDP (EUR bn): 171 177 192GDP per capita (EUR): 16,222 16,820 18,235GDP growth (%): -2.2 1.4 1.7Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -5.9 -3.4 -1.9Public Debt (% of GDP): 121.3 126.6 122.4Inflation (%): 2.3 0.3 1.3Current Account (% of GDP): -2.2 1.0 1.6

Portugal

Last year, Portugal exited its EUR 78 billion bailout program and the economy expanded for the first time since 2010. Moreover, the government announced a plan in February to make an early repayment of a portion of the bailout loan, reflecting its renewed fiscal soundness. In spite of these notable achievements, the center-right coalition government’s popularity is still at low levels due to four years of painful austerity measures that were determined by the terms of the bailout program. The country faces general elections in the final quarter of this year, and recent polls suggest that it will be a close call between the government coalition and the Socialist Party. The evolution of the economy will be crucial, with a continued economic rebound likely tipping the balance in favor of the current governing coalition.

The Portuguese economy is expected to accelerate this year, mainly underpinned by stronger export growth. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to expand 1.6% in 2015, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel foresees the economy growing 1.7%.

Harmonized consumer prices dropped 0.1% in February, easing from the 0.4% decline recorded in the previous month. FocusEconomics panelists see harmonized inflation averaging 0.1% in 2015 and 1.0% in 2016.


Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average growth of industrial production index in %.Source: Statistics Portugal (INE) and FocusEconomics calculations.

-8.0

-4.0

0.0

4.0

8.0


Year-on-Year

Annual average

%



April 2015

The Bank of Portugal expects the economy to expand 1.7% in 2015 and 1.9% in 2016. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect that GDP will expand 1.6% in 2015, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2016, the panel expects economic growth to accelerate to 1.7%.

OUTLOOK | Consumer confidence and economic climate improve in MarchThe consumer confidence index rose from minus 19.4 points in February to minus 17.5 points in March, marking the highest reading since April 2002 and prolonging the upward trend that has been observed since the beginning of 2013. According to the Statistical Institute, the rise in consumer confidence reflected improvements in all the sub-components that comprise the index. Consumers were particularly more optimistic regarding their opportunities to purchase durable goods and the evolution of their own financial situations in the last 12 months. Households’ expectations regarding the outlook of the country’s economic situation also improved markedly compared to the previous month.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect private consumption to expand 1.7% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2016, the panel expects private consumption to also increase 1.6%.

The economic climate indicator remained in optimistic territory and inched up from 0.3 in February to 0.6 in March, which marked the highest print in six months.

Panelists expect fixed investment to increase 2.8% in 2015, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate. The panel sees fixed investment expanding 3.1% in 2016.

Leading Indicators

Note: Consumer Confidence and Economic Climate indicators.Source: Statistics Portugal (INE).

-6.0

-3.0

0.0

3.0

-75

-50

-25

0


Consumer Confidence (left scale)Economic Climate (right scale)



April 2015


Annual Data 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Real Sector Population (million) 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5GDP per capita (EUR) 16,915 16,585 15,918 16,162 16,494 16,761 17,205 17,692 18,222 18,792GDP (EUR bn) 180 176 168 169 173 176 181 186 192 198Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) 2.6 -2.1 -4.4 0.6 2.2 1.7 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.2Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 1.9 -1.8 -3.3 -1.4 0.9 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8Domestic Demand (annual variation in %) 1.9 -5.7 -7.3 -2.5 2.1 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 2.5 -3.7 -5.7 -1.5 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.2Government Consumption (ann. var. in %) -1.3 -3.8 -3.3 -2.4 -0.3 - - - - -Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) -0.9 -12.5 -16.6 -6.7 2.5 2.8 3.1 2.8 2.7 2.7Exports (G&S, annual variation in %) 9.5 7.0 3.4 6.4 3.4 5.4 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.8Imports (G&S, annual variation in %) 7.8 -5.8 -6.3 3.9 6.4 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.0Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 1.5 -0.9 -6.1 0.4 1.0 1.6 3.0 2.4 2.2 2.1Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 12.0 12.9 15.8 16.5 14.1 13.0 12.3 12.3 12.0 11.5Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -11.2 -7.4 -5.5 -4.9 -4.5 -3.1 -2.5 -2.2 -1.8 -1.6Public Debt (% of GDP) 96.2 111.1 124.8 128.0 129.0 125.9 124.8 124.0 122.2 121.0Monetary and Financial Sector Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, eop) 2.5 3.5 2.1 0.2 -0.3 - - - - -Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, aop) 1.4 3.6 2.8 0.4 -0.2 0.1 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.4Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %, aop) 4.2 5.8 3.2 0.1 -1.2 - - - - -ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 1.00 1.00 0.75 0.25 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.39 0.76 1.543-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) 1.01 1.36 0.19 0.29 0.08 0.03 0.06 0.62 1.00 1.5710-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 6.69 13.39 6.68 6.19 2.69 2.07 2.29 2.94 3.19 3.03PSI-20 (var. in %, eop) -10.3 -27.6 2.9 16.0 -26.8 - - - - -Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.34 1.30 1.32 1.38 1.21 1.04 1.07 1.13 1.17 1.20Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, aop) 1.33 1.39 1.29 1.33 1.33 1.08 1.06 1.10 1.15 1.19External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -10.1 -6.0 -2.1 1.4 0.6 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.6Current Account Balance (EUR bn) -18.3 -10.6 -3.5 2.4 1.0 1.9 2.4 2.7 3.1 3.2Trade Balance (EUR bn) -19.8 -16.4 -11.0 -9.6 -10.6 - - - - - Quarterly Data Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 1.2 0.7 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7Economic Growth (GDP, s.a. qoq var. in %) 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 13.4 13.7 13.5 13.2 13.0 12.9 12.7 12.5 12.2 12.1Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, aop) -0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.053-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) 0.08 0.08 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.0610-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 3.16 2.69 1.76 2.00 2.02 2.07 2.10 2.21 2.23 2.29Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.26 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.06 1.07 Monthly Data Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15Retail Sales (annual variation in %) -0.3 1.1 1.3 1.9 0.7 -1.1 1.9 2.3 2.2 -Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 0.3 4.5 1.6 -2.1 0.6 -1.4 -2.1 -1.3 -1.0 -Consumer Confidence Index -25.9 -24.0 -26.6 -23.2 -22.2 -21.4 -23.5 -20.8 -19.4 -17.5Economic Climate Index 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %) -0.2 -0.7 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 -Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.37 1.34 1.32 1.26 1.25 1.25 1.21 1.13 1.12 -



April 2015


1 | Real GDP | 2000-2019 | var. in %




Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from Statistics Portugal (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estatistica). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.1 GDP, annual variation in %.2 Quarterly GDP (seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.3 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 Private consumption, annual variation in %.6 Private consumption, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.7 Gross fixed capital formation, annual variation in %.8 Real exports of goods and services, annual variation in %.

-6

-3

0

3

6

2000 2005 2010 2015

PortugalEuro areaWorld

-6

-3

0

3

6

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

PortugalEuro areaWorld

-1

0

1

2

3



-1

0

1

2

3




0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0


2015 2016


-6

-3

0

3

6

2000 2005 2010 2015

PortugalEuro area

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016Banco BPI 1.5 1.7BBVA Research 1.5 1.8Berenberg 1.7 2.3Citigroup Global Mkts 1.9 2.1Commerzbank 1.5 2.0Credit Agricole 1.3 1.5Credit Suisse 1.5 1.9DekaBank 1.6 1.5Deutsche Bank 1.6 1.6DZ Bank 1.7 1.8EIU 1.5 1.5Nomura 1.2 1.5Novo Banco 1.3 1.5Oxford Economics 1.7 1.4Raiffeisen Research 1.7 2.0UBS 1.6 1.9Unicredit 1.8 1.7Univ. Católica Portuguesa 1.9 1.8SummaryMinimum 1.2 1.4Maximum 1.9 2.3Median 1.6 1.7Consensus 1.6 1.7History30 days ago 1.5 1.760 days ago 1.5 1.790 days ago 1.4 1.7Additional Forecasts Euro. Comm. (Feb. 2015) 1.6 1.7IMF (Oct. 2014) 1.5 1.7Central Bank (Mar. 2015) 1.7 1.9



April 2015


Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016Banco BPI 1.2 1.0 1.5 3.0 4.3 4.0 3.0 2.8BBVA Research 1.9 1.5 3.2 3.5 4.6 5.4 4.7 5.1Berenberg 1.4 1.3 3.7 3.6 - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts 2.0 1.7 2.8 2.5 7.3 5.9 5.2 4.5Commerzbank - - - - - - - -Credit Agricole 1.6 1.5 3.3 3.1 5.1 5.3 3.7 3.6Credit Suisse - - - - - - - -DekaBank - - - - - - - -Deutsche Bank - - - - - - - -DZ Bank 1.7 1.8 1.7 3.3 6.1 4.8 4.9 4.8EIU 2.0 1.9 3.6 2.5 4.0 4.4 4.5 4.2Nomura 2.1 1.6 2.4 2.8 5.6 4.6 5.1 5.0Novo Banco 1.9 2.0 2.2 3.1 4.5 4.6 4.9 4.7Oxford Economics 1.2 0.9 2.6 3.0 6.8 5.2 4.3 4.3Raiffeisen Research - - - - - - - -UBS 1.6 1.6 4.0 4.5 4.6 5.8 5.1 5.7Unicredit - - - - - - - -Univ. Católica Portuguesa 2.1 1.8 - - - - - -SummaryMinimum 1.2 0.9 1.5 2.5 4.0 4.0 3.0 2.8Maximum 2.1 2.0 4.0 4.5 7.3 5.9 5.2 5.7Median 1.7 1.6 2.7 3.1 5.1 4.8 4.9 4.5Consensus 1.7 1.6 2.8 3.1 5.4 5.0 4.5 4.4History30 days ago 1.8 1.5 3.0 3.1 4.6 5.0 4.3 4.360 days ago 1.7 1.5 2.6 2.9 4.8 5.1 4.3 4.390 days ago 1.4 1.4 2.4 2.9 4.7 5.2 4.1 4.4

Consumption Investment Exports Importsvariation in % variation in % variation in % variation in %


-20

-10

0

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

PortugalEuro area


-20

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

PortugalEuro area


-20

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

PortugalEuro area


1

2

3

4


2015 2016


3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0


2015 2016


4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5


2015 2016



April 2015






40

60

80

100

120

140

2000 2005 2010 2015

Portugal

Euro area

0

5

10

15

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

PortugalEuro area

-3.5

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0


2015 2016

-12

-8

-4

0

2000 2005 2010 2015

Portugal

Euro area

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016Banco BPI 13.8 13.5 -2.7 -2.5 128 126BBVA Research - - -2.7 -2.5 - -Berenberg 12.9 11.9 -2.9 -2.0 - -Citigroup Global Mkts 12.2 10.6 -3.2 -2.4 127 124Commerzbank - - - - - -Credit Agricole 13.3 12.7 -3.9 -2.9 129 128Credit Suisse 13.2 12.5 -3.0 -2.5 125 124DekaBank - - -3.2 -2.8 - -Deutsche Bank 12.5 11.0 -3.1 -2.5 126 125DZ Bank - - -3.1 -2.5 125 124EIU 12.5 12.3 -3.2 -2.7 127 126Nomura - - -3.4 -2.4 125 125Novo Banco 13.6 12.6 -2.7 -2.5 124 123Oxford Economics 13.1 12.1 -3.0 -2.4 130 129Raiffeisen Research - - -2.9 -2.4 125 122UBS 13.0 12.6 -2.7 -2.0 125 124Unicredit - - -3.5 -3.0 125 124Univ. Católica Portuguesa 13.3 13.1 -3.5 - 124 -SummaryMinimum 12.2 10.6 -3.9 -3.0 124 122Maximum 13.8 13.5 -2.7 -2.0 130 129Median 13.1 12.5 -3.1 -2.5 125 124Consensus 13.0 12.3 -3.1 -2.5 126 125History30 days ago 13.1 12.3 -3.1 -2.5 127 12660 days ago 13.2 12.4 -3.1 -2.5 127 12690 days ago 13.4 12.7 -3.0 -2.6 128 127

Public Debt % of GDP

Fiscal Balance % of GDP

Unemployment % of active pop.

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from Statistics Portugal (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estatistica) and Eurostat. See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 9 Real imports of goods and services, annual variation in %. Source: INE.10 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.11 Exports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.12 Imports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.13 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: INE.14 General government balance as % of GDP. Source: Eurostat.15 General government balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.




April 2015


17 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | in %




Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary and external sector data are from Statistics Portugal (INE), Eurostat and the Bank of Portugal (BP). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 16 Public debt as % of GDP. Source: Eurostat.17 Inflation, annual average variation of harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) in %.

Source: INE.18 Inflation, annual variation of quarterly average harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP)

in %. Source: INE.19 Inflation, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.20 Inflation, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.21 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: BP.22 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last

18 months.

-2

-1

0

1

2



-2

0

2

4

6

2000 2005 2010 2015

PortugalEuro area

-1

0

1

2



-1

0

1

2

3

4

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

PortugalEuro area


0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0


2015 2016

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Banco BPI 0.1 1.0 1.2 1.4BBVA Research -0.1 0.6 0.5 0.6Berenberg 0.0 1.0 1.6 2.6Citigroup Global Mkts 0.2 1.0 1.0 1.2Commerzbank - - - -Credit Agricole 0.4 0.7 - -Credit Suisse -0.3 0.8 1.6 1.4DekaBank 0.3 0.9 0.4 0.6Deutsche Bank 0.1 1.3 1.0 0.7DZ Bank 0.4 1.2 0.5 1.5EIU 0.3 0.9 1.1 1.1Nomura 0.3 0.5 - -Novo Banco 0.1 0.9 - -Oxford Economics -0.4 0.9 1.9 2.4Raiffeisen Research -0.3 1.7 0.6 0.3UBS 0.2 1.0 1.0 1.0Unicredit 0.2 0.8 1.2 1.4Univ. Católica Portuguesa 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.3SummaryMinimum -0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3Maximum 0.7 1.7 1.9 2.6Median 0.2 1.0 1.1 1.3Consensus 0.1 1.0 1.1 1.3History30 days ago 0.1 0.9 0.9 1.160 days ago 0.2 1.0 0.9 1.190 days ago 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.9Additional Forecasts Euro. Comm. (Feb. 2015) 0.1 1.1 - -IMF (Oct. 2014) 1.1 1.5 - -Central Bank (Mar. 2015) 0.2 1.1


Current Acct % of GDP


-15

-10

-5

0

5

2000 2005 2010 2015

Portugal

Euro area



April 2015

Fact Sheet

Portugal in the Region


Portugal1.7%

Germany28.1%

France20.7%Italy

15.6%

Spain10.2%

Other23.8%

Portugal3.2%

Germany24.3%

France19.2%

Italy18.0%

Spain14.0%

Other21.2%

Other EU-27

16.7%

Spain32.1%

Germany11.5%

France6.6%

Other33.1%

Other EU-27

18.0%

Spain22.7%

Germany12.5%

France11.9%

Other35.0%

Other19.4%


Mineral Fuels17.5%

Other6.9%


Mineral Fuels7.2%

Food11.3%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1202005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002005-07 2008-10 2011-13

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• Attractive tourist destination

• Large fiscal deficit and public debt

• High exposure of banks to sovereign risk

• Highly developed logistics and communications infrastructure

• Limited size of manufacturing industry• Strong commitment to economic

reforms

Energy (2012)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 184Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 978Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 43.4Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 46.6Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 5.2Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 227CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 51.2

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: Ba1 StableS&P: BB StableFitch Ratings: BB+ Positive


Transportation (2013) Airports: 64Railways (km): 3,319Roadways (km): 82,900Waterways (km): 210Chief Ports: Leixoes, Lisbon, Setubal

Official name: Portuguese RepublicCapital: Lisbon (2.8m)Other cities: Porto (1.3m)Area (km2): 92,090Population (million, 2014 est.): 10.5Population density (per km2, 2014): 114Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 0.1Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 79.0Illiteracy rate (%, 2011): 4.6Language:

Measures: Metric systemTime: GMT

Portuguese and Mirandese

Prime Minister: Pedro Passos CoelhoLast elections: 5 June 2011Next elections: October 2015Central Bank Governor: Carlos da Silva Costa

FOCUSECONOMICS Slovakia


April 2015

Slovakia The Slovakian economy picked up in 2014, after a mild expansion in the

previous year. Domestic demand was the main driver of growth last year, with private consumption and fixed investment posting strong results. In fact, private consumption grew for the first time in four years, underpinned by increased household income, improving labor market conditions and a rise in consumer sentiment. Investment swung from a sharp contraction in 2013 to a notable expansion in 2014, mainly supported by investment in equipment. Growth momentum is expected to have carried over into 2015, as suggested by improved consumer expectations and record-high business confidence in February.

Consumer spending is likely to be the main factor driving economic growth this year, supported by continued improvement in the labor market and increased real household income due to low energy prices. Stronger exports derived from a weakened euro are also expected to contribute to growth. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts panelists expect GDP to expand 2.6% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel sees economic growth picking up to 3.0%.

Harmonized consumer prices declined 0.5% annually in January, which represented a multi-year low (December: -0.1% year-on-year). The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panel expects HICP inflation to average 0.4% this year before rising to 1.7% in 2016.

REAL SECTOR | Economic growth stable in Q4; GDP accelerates in full year 2014In the fourth quarter, GDP grew 2.4% over the same period of the previous year, according to official data released by the Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic (SOSR) on 6 March. The print matched both the preliminary estimate and the expansion registered in Q3. On a sequential basis, the economy grew a seasonally-adjusted 0.6% in Q4, which mirrored Q3’s result.

Q4’s expansion mainly reflected that an acceleration in domestic demand was partially offset by a slowdown in exports. Domestic demand increased 3.7% over the same quarter of the previous year, which was up from the 3.3% rise tallied in Q3. Private consumption and government spending were the main factors behind the pick-up in domestic demand. Private consumption accelerated from a 1.6% rise in Q3 to a 2.2% increase in Q4. Government consumption rose 4.0%, which marked an improvement from the 3.3% increase in Q3. Conversely, investment slowed from a 7.7% expansion to a 6.8% rise.

On the external front, exports decelerated from Q3’s 1.6% growth to a mild 0.3% increase in Q4. Imports contracted 0.2% in the final quarter of the year, which contrasted the 1.7% increase tallied in Q3. Since imports fell faster than

Outlook stable


Cecilia Simkievich Economist

Slovakia

2011-13 2014-16 2017-19Population (million): 5.4 5.4 5.4GDP (EUR bn): 72.0 77.9 89.5GDP per capita (EUR): 13,323 14,369 16,443GDP growth (%): 1.4 3.0 2.8Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -3.6 -2.5 -1.5Public Debt (% of GDP): 50.1 55.2 51.9Inflation (%): 1.5 1.7 2.2Current Account (% of GDP): 0.2 2.4 1.9


Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.Source: Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic (SOSR) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015

%



April 2015

exports, the external sector’s net contribution to overall economic growth rose from a flat reading in Q3 to plus 0.5 percentage points in Q4.

In the full year 2014, GDP expanded 2.4%, which marked a notable improvement over the 1.4% expansion registered in 2013.

The National Bank of Slovakia (NBS) projects that GDP will grow 2.9% in 2015 and 3.6% in 2016. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP growth to reach 2.6% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel projects that economic growth will accelerate to 3.0%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Consumer prices drop into negative territory in JanuaryIn January, consumer prices fell 0.1% over the previous month, which came in above the 0.3% decline tallied in December. January’s reading mainly reflected lower prices for transport, as well as for clothing and footwear, and housing. Conversely, food and non-alcoholic beverages, as along with alcoholic beverages and tobacco recorded higher prices than in the previous month.

Consumer prices declined 0.2% in January compared to the same month of last year, which contrasted the 0.2% increase observed in December and marked the lowest reading since December 2009. Meanwhile, the harmonized index of consumer prices fell 0.5% in annual terms in January, which was down from the 0.1% decrease tallied in December and marked a multi-year-low.

The National Bank of Slovakia (NBS) expects HICP inflation to be flat in 2015 and pick up to 1.4% in 2016. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect HICP inflation to average 0.4% in 2015, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2016, the panel expects HICP inflation to increase to 1.7%.


Note: Month-on-month and year-on-year variation of consumer price index in %.Source: Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic (SOSR).

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

-0.4

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2




%%



April 2015


Annual Data 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Real Sector Population (million) 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5GDP per capita (USD) 16,441 18,115 17,172 18,063 18,448 15,367 15,785 17,246 18,927 20,469GDP (USD bn) 89.1 97.7 92.8 97.7 99.9 83.4 85.7 93.8 103.0 111.6GDP per capita (EUR) 12,395 13,012 13,358 13,601 13,885 14,286 14,935 15,668 16,433 17,228GDP (EUR bn) 67.2 70.2 72.2 73.6 75.2 77.5 81.1 85.2 89.4 93.9Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) 5.3 4.4 2.9 2.0 2.2 3.0 4.7 5.0 5.0 5.0Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 4.8 2.7 1.6 1.4 2.4 2.6 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.8Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 0.1 -0.7 -0.5 -0.8 2.2 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.8Government Consumption (ann. var. in %) 1.7 -2.1 -2.0 2.4 4.4 - - - - -Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) 7.2 12.7 -9.3 -2.7 5.7 3.6 4.4 3.9 3.7 3.5Industrial Production (annual var. in %) 8.1 5.3 7.7 5.3 3.4 4.8 5.3 4.8 4.4 3.4Retail Sales (annual variation in %) -2.3 -2.7 -0.9 0.1 3.6 3.5 4.0 3.8 3.6 2.6Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 12.5 13.2 13.6 14.1 12.8 12.5 11.9 11.4 10.7 10.1Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -7.5 -4.1 -4.2 -2.6 -2.9 -2.5 -2.2 -1.8 -1.6 -1.1Public Debt (% of GDP) 41.1 43.5 52.1 54.6 55.1 55.4 55.0 53.4 52.2 49.9Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M2 in %, eop) 2.5 3.9 7.3 6.2 5.3 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) 1.9 2.3 3.0 0.4 0.2 - - - - -Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, aop) 0.7 4.1 3.8 1.5 -0.1 0.4 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.2Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %, aop) 0.2 2.3 3.9 -0.1 -3.5 - - - - -ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 1.00 1.00 0.75 0.25 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.39 0.76 1.543-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) 1.01 1.36 0.19 0.29 0.08 0.03 0.06 0.62 1.00 1.57Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.34 1.30 1.32 1.38 1.21 1.04 1.07 1.13 1.17 1.20Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, aop) 1.33 1.39 1.29 1.33 1.33 1.08 1.06 1.10 1.15 1.19External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -3.7 -3.7 2.2 2.1 2.9 2.4 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8Current Account Balance (EUR bn) -2.5 -2.6 1.6 1.5 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7Merchandise Trade Balance (EUR bn) 0.8 1.0 3.6 4.2 3.5 4.0 3.8 4.1 4.3 3.6Merchandise Exports (EUR bn) 48.3 56.8 62.1 64.3 63.9 68.3 72.3 77.1 82.8 89.1Merchandise Imports (EUR bn) 47.5 55.8 58.6 60.1 60.4 64.3 68.5 73.4 78.7 84.8Merchandise Exports (annual variation in %) 21.5 17.6 9.4 3.5 -0.6 6.8 5.9 6.6 7.4 7.6Merchandise Imports (annual variation in %) 22.5 17.4 5.1 2.5 0.6 6.4 6.5 7.1 7.3 7.7External Debt (EUR bn) 49.6 49.2 55.2 62.0 68.8 80.6 83.2 81.7 80.9 79.6External Debt (% of GDP) 73.8 70.1 76.4 84.2 91.5 104.1 102.6 95.9 90.4 84.8

Quarterly Data Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.8 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.0 2.7Economic Growth (GDP, s.a. qoq var. in %) 0.6 0.6 - - - - - - - -Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, aop) -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.5 1.8 1.9 1.9ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.053-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) 0.08 0.08 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.06Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.26 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.06 1.07 Monthly Data May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 4.7 7.5 3.9 3.8 0.4 2.8 -3.3 0.7 - -Unemployment (% of active population) 12.8 12.8 12.7 12.6 12.4 12.3 12.2 12.3 12.4 -Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 -0.2 -Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.5 -Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.36 1.37 1.34 1.32 1.26 1.25 1.25 1.21 1.13 1.12



April 2015


1 | Real GDP | 2000 - 2019 | var. in %








General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic (SOSR, Statisticky urad Slovenskej republiky). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 1 GDP, annual variation in %. 2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %. 3 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 Unemployment, % of active population. 6 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP.7 Unemployment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18



Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Capital Economics 2.5 3.0 -2.3 -2.3Citigroup Global Mkts 2.7 3.2 -2.8 -2.1CSOB 2.4 2.8 -2.9 -3.0DekaBank 2.6 2.9 -2.8 -2.6EIU 2.6 2.9 -2.5 -2.3Erste Bank 2.5 3.0 -2.5 -1.5Experian 3.0 3.4 -2.5 -2.2Frontier Strategy Group 2.2 2.5 - -Komerční Banka 2.7 2.7 -2.8 -2.5OTP Bank 2.6 2.8 -2.8 -2.7Oxford Economics 3.1 3.7 -1.7 -1.4Raiffeisen Research 2.5 3.0 -2.3 -1.4UniCredit 2.5 3.1 -2.5 -1.5VÚB Banka 2.7 2.8 - -WIIW 2.5 2.7 -2.8 -2.6SummaryMinimum 2.2 2.5 -2.9 -3.0Maximum 3.1 3.7 -1.7 -1.4Median 2.6 2.9 -2.5 -2.3Consensus 2.6 3.0 -2.5 -2.2History30 days ago 2.6 3.0 -2.5 -2.060 days ago 2.6 3.0 -2.5 -2.190 days ago 2.6 3.0 -2.6 -2.0Additional ForecastsCentral Bank (Jan. 2015) 2.9 3.6 - -Euro. Comm. (Feb. 2015) 2.5 3.2 - -IMF (Oct. 2014) 2.7 2.9 - -


-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2000 2005 2010 2015

SlovakiaEastern EuropeWorld

5

10

15

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

SlovakiaEastern Europe

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

SlovakiaEastern EuropeWorld

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0



1

2

3

4



11.5

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5

14.0


2015 2016

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5


2015 2016

-15

-10

-5

0

5

2000 2005 2010 2015




April 2015


Consumer Price Index and Current Account Balance

Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary and external sector data are from the Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic (SOSR, Statisticky urad Slovenskej republiky) and the Bank of Slovakia (NBS, Narodna banka Slovenska). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 9 Inflation, annual average variation of harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) in %.

Source: SOSR.10 Inflation, annual variation of quarterly average harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP).

Source: SOSR.11 Inflation, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.12 Inflation, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.13 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: NBS.14 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last

18 months.

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Capital Economics -0.3 1.5 2.8 1.8Citigroup Global Mkts 0.3 2.3 - -CSOB 0.2 1.5 3.0 2.0DekaBank 0.2 1.1 - -EIU 0.7 2.0 2.2 1.3Erste Bank 0.0 1.5 2.9 3.1Experian 0.8 1.9 3.5 3.2Frontier Strategy Group - - - -Komerční Banka 0.0 1.4 2.0 1.4OTP Bank - - 2.1 1.8Oxford Economics 1.6 2.0 2.5 2.5Raiffeisen Research 1.0 2.5 2.0 1.9UniCredit 0.4 1.6 1.2 1.1VÚB Banka 0.0 1.4 - -WIIW 0.4 1.4 - -SummaryMinimum -0.3 1.1 1.2 1.1Maximum 1.6 2.5 3.5 3.2Median 0.3 1.5 2.3 1.9Consensus 0.4 1.7 2.4 2.0History30 days ago 0.6 1.8 2.5 2.060 days ago 0.9 1.8 2.1 1.990 days ago 1.1 2.0 1.7 1.4Additional ForecastsCentral Bank (Jan. 2015) 0.0 1.4 - -Euro. Comm. (Feb. 2015) 0.4 1.3 - -IMF (Oct. 2014) 1.3 1.5 - -


9 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | in %



10 | Inflation | Q1 12-Q4 16 | in %



-10

-5

0

5

2000 2005 2010 2015


1

2

3

4


2015 2016

-10

0

10

20

30

2000 2005 2010 2015


-5

0

5

10

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16


-1

0

1

2

3

4



0

1

2

3

4





April 2015

Fact Sheet

Slovakia in the Region

Population | %-share in Eastern Europe GDP | %-share in Eastern Europe

Slovakia 2.3%

Russia 45.8%

Turkey 18.2%

Poland 12.4%

Czech Republic

4.6%

Other16.8%

Slovakia 1.5%

Russia 38.8%

Turkey 20.9%

Ukraine 12.2%

Poland 10.4%

Other16.2%

Russia10.1%

Other EU-27

24.3%

Germany18.6%

Czech Rep.17.8%

Austria8.0%

Asia ex-Japan9.3%

Other11.9%

Other EU-27

35.3%

Germany22.4%

Czech Rep.14.8%

Poland8.8%

Other18.7%

Other5.3%


Mineral Fuels13.6%

Food6.5%

Other9.3%


Mineral Fuels5.6%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1202003-05 2006-08 2009-11

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002002-04 2005-07 2008-10

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• Small domestic market• Rising labor costs

• Strong export sector

• European Monetary Union membership accelerated implementation of reforms

• Attractive business environment


Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: A2 StableS&P: A PositiveFitch Ratings: A+ Stable


Transportation (2013) Airports: 35Railways (km): 3,622Roadways (km): 43,916Waterways (km): 172Chief Ports: Bratislava, Komarno

Official name: Slovak RepublicCapital: Bratislava (0.6m)Other cities: Kosice (0.8m)Area (km2): 49,035Population (million, 2014 est.): 5.4Population density (per km2, 2014): 110.5Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 0.0Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 76.7Illiteracy rate (%, 2004): 0.4Language: SlovakMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT+1

Prime Minister: Robert FicoLast elections: 10 March 2012Next elections: 15 March 2016Central Bank President: Jozef Makuch

FOCUSECONOMICS Slovenia


April 2015

Slovenia

REAL SECTOR | Economic growth eases in Q4GDP expanded 2.4% in Q4 over the same quarter of the previous year, which was below the 3.2% increase recorded in Q3. Q3’s expansion had marked the fastest pace of growth since Q2 2008.

Q4’s slowdown mainly reflects weak dynamics in domestic demand. Private consumption fell 0.8% over the same quarter of the previous year, which contrasted the 0.3% rise in Q3 and marked a one-year low. Government spending rose 1.2% in Q4, rebounding from Q3’s 0.4% fall. Gross fixed investment fell 0.9% in Q4, which contrasted Q3’s strong 8.1% rise; Q4 marked an almost-two-year low.

Exports of goods and services rose 8.4% in Q4, which marked an acceleration over the 6.8% increase recorded in Q3. Imports expanded 3.3% in Q4, which was below the 5.3% expansion in Q3. As a result, the external sector’s net contribution to overall economic growth rose from 1.8 percentage points in Q3 to 4.4 percentage points in Q4.

On a quarter-on-quarter, seasonally- and working-day adjusted basis, GDP recorded a 0.3% expansion in Q4, which was down from the 0.6% increase observed in Q3. For the full year 2014, GDP rose 2.6%. The result notably contrasts 2013’s 1.0% contraction and marks the first year of growth since 2011.

Recently released data confirm that Slovenia’s economy expanded at the fastest rate since 2008 last year. GDP grew a robust 2.6% in 2014 (2013: -1.0%), driven by a recovery in domestic demand and accelerating exports. Looking forward, Slovenia is expected to grow in 2015, albeit at a slightly weaker pace. On 13 February, the IMF concluded its Article IV consultation with Slovenia. The IMF stated that, while the economy expanded in 2014, key policy challenges remain. Specifically, the IMF stressed that the government should accelerate the planned privatizations and reduce the state’s role in the economy in order to tackle the country’s large amount of debt.

Slovenia’s outlook remains stable. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see the economy expanding 2.0% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel expects GDP to expand 2.1%.

Harmonized consumer prices fell 0.5% year-on-year in February, which followed the 0.7% decrease tallied in January. Inflationary pressures are expected to remain subdued in 2015 due to the fall in oil prices. Panelists expect HICP inflation to average 0.5% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2016, the panel foresees inflation rising to 1.3%.

Outlook stable



Slovenia

2011-13 2014-16 2017-19Population (million): 2.1 2.1 2.1GDP (EUR bn): 36.3 38.3 43.0GDP per capita (EUR): 17,687 18,547 20,709GDP growth (%): -1.0 2.1 2.4Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -8.2 -3.6 -2.7Public Debt (% of GDP): 56.7 79.1 78.7Inflation (%): 1.9 1.3 2.2Current Account (% of GDP): 2.8 5.3 3.3


Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.Source: Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia (SORS) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

-6.0

-3.0

0.0

3.0

6.0

Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015

%



April 2015

The Central Bank expects the economy to expand 1.3% in 2015. Growth is expected to accelerate in 2016, when an expansion of 1.8% is forecasted. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to increase 2.0% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. In 2016, the panel sees GDP expanding 2.1%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Decrease in consumer prices moderates in FebruaryConsumer prices rose 0.2% in February over the previous month, which contrasted the 1.3% decrease tallied in January. The monthly reading mostly reflected an increase in prices for telephone and internet services as well as for vegetables.

Annual consumer prices fell 0.4% in February, which followed the 0.5% decline tallied in January. January’s figure had represented the largest decrease in consumer prices since July 2009. Meanwhile, annual harmonized consumer prices fell 0.5%, which followed the 0.7% decrease observed in the previous month. Annual average HICP inflation remained at January’s 0.2% in February.

The Central Bank expects HICP inflation to average 0.7% in 2015 and 1.2% in 2016. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect HICP inflation to average 0.5% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points over the previous month’s forecast. In 2016, the panel expects HICP inflation to accelerate to 1.3%.


Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month variation of consumer price index in %.Source: Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia (SORS).

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0




%%



April 2015


Annual Data 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Real Sector Population (million) 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1GDP per capita (USD) 23,141 25,063 22,292 23,225 24,045 19,883 20,158 21,785 23,784 25,688GDP (USD bn) 47.4 51.4 45.8 47.8 49.6 41.1 41.7 45.1 49.4 53.4GDP per capita (EUR) 17,694 17,985 17,523 17,552 18,065 18,493 19,082 19,824 20,683 21,620GDP (EUR bn) 36.2 36.9 36.0 36.1 37.3 38.2 39.5 41.1 42.9 44.9Economic Growth (Nom. GDP, ann. var. in %) 0.1 1.8 -2.3 0.4 3.1 2.5 3.4 4.0 4.5 4.7Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 1.2 0.6 -2.6 -1.0 2.6 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.4Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 1.0 0.0 -3.0 -4.0 0.3 1.1 1.4 2.0 2.2 2.3Government Consumption (annual var. in %) 0.1 -1.3 -1.5 -1.1 -0.5 - - - - -Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) -13.7 -4.6 -8.9 1.9 4.8 3.1 3.1 4.7 5.1 5.4Industrial Production (annual var. in %) 7.0 2.1 -0.5 -1.4 1.6 2.9 2.9 3.3 3.5 3.7Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 7.3 8.2 8.9 10.1 9.8 9.3 8.7 8.2 7.6 7.3Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -5.7 -6.2 -3.7 -14.6 -4.6 -3.5 -2.9 -2.8 -2.7 -2.6Public Debt (% of GDP) 37.9 46.2 53.4 70.4 78.1 79.2 79.9 79.4 78.8 78.1Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M2 in %) 1.6 2.5 -1.0 -1.3 6.7 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) 1.9 2.0 2.7 0.7 0.2 - - - - -Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, aop) 2.1 2.1 2.8 1.9 0.4 0.5 1.3 1.8 2.1 2.2Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %, aop) 2.1 4.5 0.9 0.0 -0.6 - - - - -ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 1.00 1.00 0.75 0.25 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.39 0.76 1.543-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) 1.01 1.36 0.19 0.29 0.08 0.03 0.06 0.62 1.00 1.5710-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 4.11 6.90 5.33 5.27 2.11 - - - - -Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.34 1.30 1.32 1.38 1.21 1.04 1.07 1.13 1.17 1.20Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, aop) 1.33 1.39 1.29 1.33 1.33 1.08 1.06 1.10 1.15 1.19External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -0.1 0.2 2.7 5.6 5.8 5.2 4.8 3.9 3.2 2.7Current Account Balance (EUR bn) 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.0 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.2Merchandise Trade Balance (EUR bn) -0.7 -1.0 0.0 0.8 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5Merchandise Exports (EUR bn) 18.6 21.0 21.3 21.7 23.1 24.6 26.8 29.1 31.3 33.5Merchandise Imports (EUR bn) 19.3 22.0 21.3 20.9 21.8 23.4 25.5 27.7 29.8 32.0Merchandise Exports (annual variation in %) 14.1 12.9 1.4 1.9 6.5 6.4 9.0 8.5 7.7 7.1Merchandise Imports (annual variation in %) 15.6 14.0 -3.2 -1.9 4.3 7.2 8.9 8.9 7.6 7.3External Debt (EUR bn) 41.0 40.0 42.0 40.0 46.0 43.0 43.8 45.1 46.4 47.6External Debt (% of GDP) 113 108 117 111 123 113 111 110 108 106 Quarterly Data Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 3.2 2.4 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.8Economic Growth (GDP, s.a. qoq var. in %) 0.6 0.3 - - - - - - - -Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, aop) 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.7ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.053-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) 0.08 0.08 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.06Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.26 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.06 1.07 Monthly Data May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 1.6 2.8 6.0 1.2 3.4 3.9 2.8 0.1 - -Unemployment (% of active population) 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7 -Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.6 0.1 -1.1 0.0 0.3 0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -1.3 0.2Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 0.7 0.8 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.2 -0.5 -0.4Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %) 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.7 -0.5Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.36 1.37 1.34 1.32 1.26 1.25 1.25 1.21 1.13 1.12



April 2015


1 | Real GDP | 2000-2019 | var. in %







8 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia (SORS) and Eurostat. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: SORS.2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.

Source: SORS. 3 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: SORS.6 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: Eurostat. 7 Unemployment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18



Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Capital Economics 2.0 1.5 -3.5 -2.5Citigroup Global Mkts 1.8 2.3 -2.9 -2.5DekaBank 2.1 1.9 -2.9 -2.8EIU 2.2 1.8 -3.2 -2.9IMAD 2.0 1.7 - -Institute EIPF 1.7 2.0 -3.1 -2.3Kopint-Tárki 2.5 2.6 -3.5 -2.9Oxford Economics 2.2 2.4 -4.3 -3.3Raiffeisen Research 2.0 2.0 -4.0 -3.0UniCredit 1.8 2.8 -3.3 -2.8WIIW 1.7 1.8 -4.0 -3.5SummaryMinimum 1.7 1.5 -4.3 -3.5Maximum 2.5 2.8 -2.9 -2.3Median 2.0 2.0 -3.4 -2.9Consensus 2.0 2.1 -3.5 -2.9History30 days ago 2.0 2.1 -3.4 -2.860 days ago 1.8 2.0 -3.4 -2.990 days ago 1.5 1.7 -3.2 -3.1Additional ForecastsCentral Bank (Sep. 2014) 1.3 1.8 - -Euro. Comm. (Feb. 2015) 1.8 2.3 - -IMF (Oct. 2014) 1.4 1.5 - -


-10

-5

0

5

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

SloveniaEastern EuropeWorld

3

6

9

12

2000 2005 2010 2015

SloveniaEastern Europe

-6

-3

0

3

6

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

SloveniaEastern EuropeWorld

0

1

2

3



0

1

2

3



8

9

10

11


2015 2016

-4.0

-3.5

-3.0

-2.5


2015 2016

-15

-10

-5

0

5

2000 2005 2010 2015

Slovenia

Eastern Europe



April 2015


9 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | in %






Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary and external sector data are from the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia (SORS) and the Central Bank of Slovenia (BS, Banka Slovenije). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 9 Inflation, annual average variation of harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) in %.

Source: SORS.10 Inflation, annual variation of quarterly average harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP)

in %. Source: SORS.11 Inflation, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.12 Inflation, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.13 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: BS.14 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last

18 months.

-6

-3

0

3

6

2000 2005 2010 2015

Slovenia

Eastern Europe

2

3

4

5

6


2015 2016

0

5

10

15

20

25

2000 2005 2010 2015


-3

0

3

6

9

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16


-1

0

1

2

3



0

1

2

3



Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Capital Economics 0.0 1.0 4.0 3.0Citigroup Global Mkts - - 5.0 5.0DekaBank -0.1 1.1 5.7 5.4EIU 0.8 1.8 3.9 1.8IMAD 0.0 0.6 - -Institute EIPF 1.3 1.7 5.8 5.7Kopint-Tárki - - 5.5 5.1Oxford Economics 0.4 2.1 6.6 6.0Raiffeisen Research 1.0 1.5 4.9 4.7UniCredit 0.7 1.5 5.5 6.0WIIW 0.5 0.5 5.3 4.9SummaryMinimum -0.1 0.5 3.9 1.8Maximum 1.3 2.1 6.6 6.0Median 0.5 1.5 5.4 5.1Consensus 0.5 1.3 5.2 4.8History30 days ago 0.6 1.3 5.1 4.760 days ago 0.6 1.4 5.0 4.590 days ago 1.0 1.5 5.1 4.2Additional ForecastsCentral Bank (Sep. 2014) 0.7 1.2 - -Euro. Comm. (Feb. 2015) -0.3 0.9 - -IMF (Oct. 2014) 1.0 1.7 - -

Prices (HICP) Current Accountvariation in % % of GDP



April 2015

Fact Sheet

Slovenia in the Region

Population | %-share in Eastern Europe GDP | %-share in Eastern Europe

Slovenia 1.1%

Russia 45.8%

Turkey 18.2%

Poland 12.4%

Czech Republic

4.6%

Other17.9%

Slovenia 0.6%

Russia 38.8%

Turkey 20.9%

Ukraine 12.2%

Poland 10.4%

Other17.2%

Other EU-27

28.9%

Italy16.5%

Germany16.3%

Austria10.4%

Asia ex-Japan8.8%

Other19.1%

Croatia6.2%

Other EU-27

35.3%

Germany20.0%

Italy12.0%

Austria7.9%

Other18.7%

Other3.3%


Ores & Metals6.0%

Mineral Fuels15.1%

Food8.1%

Other10.6%


Mineral Fuels5.5%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1202003-05 2006-08 2009-11

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002002-04 2005-07 2008-10

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• Well educated labor force• High income per capita• Diversified economy

.

• Banking sector under severe distress• Small open economy sensitive to external demand shocks


Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: Baa3 StableS&P: A- StableFitch Ratings: BBB+ Stable


Transportation (2013) Airports: 16Railways (km): 1,228Roadways (km): 38,985Chief Ports: Koper

Official name: Republic of SloveniaCapital: Ljubljana (0.5m)Other cities: Maribor (0.3m)Area (km2): 20,273Population (million, 2014 est.): 2.1Population density (per km2, 2014): 101.7Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): -0.2Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 77.8Illiteracy rate (%, 2011): 0.3Language: SlovenianMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT+1

Prime Minister: Miro CerarLast elections: 13 July 2014Next elections: 2018Central Bank President: Boštjan Jazbec

FOCUSECONOMICS Cyprus


April 2015

Cyprus The Cypriot economy remained in recession in Q4 2014 and recorded

a 2.0% contraction in annual terms, which marked a slight improvement compared to Q3’s 2.1% decrease. On 23 March, the parliament extended the suspension of the implementation of a controversial legislation again in order to streamline foreclosures, this time until 2 April. The approval of this reform has been a prerequisite for the continuation of Cyprus’ bailout program since December, as it would allow banks to recuperate part of their lost assets in non-performing loans through faster foreclosure procedures. Thus, the IMF is still withholding the disbursement of the next EUR 86 million bailout tranche. In addition, Cyprus will not be eligible for the ECB’s quantitative easing program until the framework has been approved.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists still expect the economy to exit recession in 2015 with a mild 0.3% expansion. For 2016, the panel expects the economy to grow 1.4%.

Harmonized consumer prices dropped 0.8% in February (January: -0.7% year-on-year). Panelists see inflation averaging 0.4% in 2015 and 1.0% in 2016.

Outlook stable


Eric DenisEconomist

Cyprus

4 | GDP | evolution of forecasts

1 | GDP | variation in %



6 | Inflation | evolution of forecasts

3 | Inflation | in %

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2


2015 2016

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

Cyprus

Euro area

-2

0

2

4

6

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

Cyprus

Euro area

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0


2015 2016

-6

-3

0

3

6

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

CyprusEuro areaWorld

-2

-1

0

1

2


2015 2016

2008-10 2011-13 2014-16Population (million): 0.8 0.9 0.9GDP (EUR bn): 18.8 19.0 17.7GDP per capita (EUR): 22,931 21,805 19,700GDP growth (%): 1.0 -2.5 -0.2Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -3.2 -5.5 -3.2Public Debt (% of GDP): 51.6 82.6 116.8Inflation (%): 2.4 2.3 0.4Current Account (% of GDP): -11.4 -4.2 -0.8



April 2015



9 | Unemployment | evol. of fcst



Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2016 unless otherwise stated. All data are from the Central Bank of Cyprus (CBC), the Statistical Service of the Republic of Cyprus (CYSTAT) and Eurostat. See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: CYSTAT.2 Government fiscal balance as % of GDP. Source: Eurostat.3 Inflation, annual average variation of harmonized index of consumer

prices (HICP) in %. Source: CYSTAT.4 GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 Government fiscal balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016

forecasts during the last 18 months.6 Inflation, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18

months.7 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: Eurostat.8 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: CBC.9 Unemployment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18

months.10 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016

forecasts during the last 18 months.

14

16

18

20

22


2015 2016

0

5

10

15

20

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

CyprusEuro area

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5


2015 2016

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

Annual Data 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Real Sector Population (million) 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9GDP per capita (EUR) 22,294 23,588 22,466 22,738 22,622 22,248 20,545 19,641 19,587 19,871GDP (EUR bn) 17.3 18.8 18.4 19.1 19.5 19.4 18.1 17.5 17.6 18.1Economic Growth (Nom. GDP, ann. var. in %) 9.5 8.7 -2.1 3.8 2.1 -0.5 -6.7 -3.3 0.7 2.5Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 4.9 3.6 -2.0 1.4 0.3 -2.4 -5.4 -2.3 0.3 1.5Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 10.2 8.0 -6.6 1.3 1.9 -0.7 -6.0 0.4 -0.1 1.1Government Consumption (annual var. in %) 3.3 5.7 6.4 -1.4 0.7 -2.7 -4.9 -8.7 - -Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) 7.8 9.0 -13.9 -5.1 -9.4 -20.6 -17.1 -18.8 0.0 3.4Exports (G&S, annual variation in %) 5.3 -1.7 -7.3 2.6 4.2 -1.7 -5.0 5.7 1.5 2.5Imports (G&S, annual variation in %) 10.5 7.7 -16.0 4.5 -0.6 -4.6 -13.6 8.1 -0.2 1.6Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 7.3 -1.0 -6.5 -2.4 -9.1 -17.7 -5.3 1.3 - -Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 3.9 3.6 5.4 6.3 7.9 11.9 15.9 16.1 15.9 15.0Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 3.2 0.9 -5.6 -4.8 -5.8 -5.8 -4.9 -3.9 -3.2 -2.6Public Debt (% of GDP) 53.7 44.7 53.5 56.5 66.0 79.5 102.2 115.3 118.7 116.6Monetary and Financial Sector Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, eop) 3.7 1.8 1.6 2.0 4.2 1.5 -1.3 -1.0 - -Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, aop) 2.2 4.4 0.2 2.6 3.5 3.1 0.4 -0.3 0.4 1.0ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 4.00 2.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.75 0.25 0.05 0.05 0.053-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) 4.68 2.89 0.70 1.01 1.36 0.19 0.29 0.08 0.03 0.06Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.46 1.39 1.43 1.34 1.30 1.32 1.38 1.21 1.04 1.07Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, aop) 1.37 1.47 1.39 1.33 1.39 1.29 1.33 1.33 1.08 1.06External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -10.8 -15.4 -9.8 -8.9 -3.1 -6.2 -3.3 -0.9 -0.7 -0.7Current Account Balance (EUR bn) -1.9 -2.9 -1.8 -1.7 -0.6 -1.2 -0.6 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1Trade Balance (EUR bn) -5.3 -6.2 -4.7 -5.4 -4.9 -4.3 -3.2 -3.7 - -



April 2015

Fact Sheet

Cyprus in the Region


Cyprus0.2%

Germany29.0%

France21.4%

Italy16.1%

Spain10.6%

Other22.7%

Cyprus0.3%

Germany24.3%

France19.2%

Italy18.0%

Spain14.0%

Other24.1%

Other EU-27

25.0%

Greece21.6%

Italy8.3%

U.K.7.4%

Asia ex-Japan7.7%

Other30.0%

Other EU-27

16.6%

Greece23.0%

U.K.10.2%

Asia ex-Japan8.5%

Other41.8%

Other18.7%


Mineral Fuels25.1%

Other2.0%


Ores & Metals16.2%

Food36.2%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1202002-04 2005-07 2008-10

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002000-02 2003-05 2006-08

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• Tourist attractiveness • Disproportionate banking sector • High household indebtedness

.

• Commitment to medium-term fiscal stability • Large fiscal deficit and public

debt


Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: B3 StableS&P: B+ StableFitch Ratings: B- Positive


Transportation (2013) Airports: 15Railways (km): -Roadways (km): 20,006Waterways (km): -Chief Ports: Limassol, Larnaca, Vasilicos

Official name: Republic of CyprusCapital: Nicosia (0.3m)Other cities: Limassol (0.2m)

Larnaca (0.1m)Area (km2): 9,251Population (million, 2014 est.): 0.9Population density (per km2, 2014): 96Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 1.5Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 78.3Illiteracy rate (%, 2011 est.): 1.3Language: Greek and TurkishMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT+2

President (Head of Government): Nicos AnastasiadesLast elections: 28 February 2013Next elections: February 2018Central Bank Governor: Chrystalla Georghadji

FOCUSECONOMICS Luxembourg


April 2015

LuxembourgLuxembourg’s economy is expected to improve gradually going forward as

the Euro area recovers. However, the country’s financial sector is facing risks following the European Commission’s recent unveiling of a plan to force all countries in the European Union to share details of the tax rulings granted to multinationals. Brussels’ move was a reaction to last year’s LuxLeaks scandal, which revealed secret deals between Luxembourg’s tax authorities and multinational companies.

Luxembourg’s outlook has improved. While pressure within the European Union regarding the country’s tax regulations could put its economic model in peril, the ongoing recovery in neighboring countries will drive external demand. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP growing 2.3% in 2015, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel sees GDP expanding 2.6%.

Annual harmonized consumer prices fell 0.3% in February, which followed January’s 1.1% drop. FocusEconomics panelists see inflation averaging 1.2% in 2015. For 2016, the panel sees inflation at 1.6%.

Outlook improves


Eric DenisEconomist

Luxembourg







-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5


2015 2016

-10

-5

0

5

10

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

Luxembourg

Euro area

-2

0

2

4

6

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

LuxembourgEuro area

1.2

1.5

1.8

2.1

2.4


2015 2016

-10

-5

0

5

10

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

LuxembourgEuro areaWorld

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0


2015 2016

2008-10 2011-13 2014-16Population (million): 0.5 0.5 0.6GDP (EUR bn): 37.7 43.8 48.7GDP per capita (EUR): 75,571 82,802 87,245GDP growth (%): 0.4 2.5 2.4Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): 0.7 0.3 0.0Public Debt (% of GDP): 16.5 21.2 24.8Inflation (%): 2.3 2.8 1.2Current Account (% of GDP): 7.3 5.4 4.6



April 2015






Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2016 unless otherwise stated. All data are from the Central Bank of Luxembourg (BCL), Eurostat, and the National Statistical Institute of Luxembourg (STATEC, Service Central de la Statistique et des Études Économiques). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: STATEC.2 General government balance as % of GDP. Source: Eurostat.3 Inflation, annual average variation of harmonized index of consumer

prices (HICP) in %. Source: STATEC.4 GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 General government balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016

forecasts during the last 18 months.6 Inflation, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18

months.7 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: STATEC.8 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: BCL.9 Unemployment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18



5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5


2015 2016

0

5

10

15

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

LuxembourgEuro area

4.2

5.0

5.8

6.6


2015 2016

3

6

9

12

15

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

Annual Data 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Real Sector Population (million) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6GDP per capita (EUR) 74,746 76,734 72,478 77,502 81,715 82,353 84,337 85,640 87,071 89,023GDP (EUR bn) 36.0 37.5 36.1 39.4 42.4 43.8 45.3 46.9 48.6 50.7Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in%) 8.0 4.4 -3.8 9.1 7.7 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.5 4.3Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 6.5 0.5 -5.3 5.1 2.6 -0.2 2.0 3.0 2.3 2.6Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 2.5 -0.4 0.6 1.7 1.2 1.3 1.2 2.1 1.9 2.5Government Consumption (ann. var. in %) 1.4 2.4 4.1 3.2 1.3 3.7 5.1 - - -Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) 8.4 9.9 -12.2 -0.2 14.4 2.4 -4.5 1.5 3.4 2.7Exports (G&S, annual variation in %) 7.7 7.3 -12.7 8.2 5.0 2.9 5.6 3.1 3.8 4.0Imports (G&S, annual variation in %) 7.3 9.2 -14.0 9.6 6.9 3.8 5.8 2.1 3.7 4.0Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 4.2 4.2 5.5 5.8 5.7 6.1 6.9 7.1 7.0 6.9Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 4.2 3.3 -0.5 -0.6 0.3 0.1 0.6 0.5 -0.4 -0.2Public Debt (% of GDP) 7.2 14.4 15.5 19.6 18.5 21.4 23.6 23.9 24.5 26.0Monetary and Financial Sector Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, eop) 4.3 0.7 2.5 3.1 3.4 2.5 1.5 -0.9 - -Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, aop) 2.7 4.1 0.0 2.8 3.7 2.9 1.7 0.7 1.2 1.6Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %, aop) 4.1 6.0 -9.9 7.1 6.9 -0.6 -2.6 -1.2 - -ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 4.00 2.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.75 0.25 0.05 0.05 0.053-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) 4.68 2.89 0.70 1.01 1.36 0.19 0.29 0.08 0.03 0.06Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.46 1.39 1.43 1.34 1.30 1.32 1.38 1.21 1.04 1.07Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, aop) 1.37 1.47 1.39 1.33 1.39 1.29 1.33 1.33 1.08 1.06External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 10.1 7.4 7.6 7.0 5.8 5.7 4.9 5.0 4.4 4.4Current Account Balance (EUR bn) 3.6 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.5 2.2 2.2Trade Balance (EUR bn) -4.5 -5.5 -4.5 -5.6 -6.8 -8.1 -7.6 -6.7 - -



April 2015

Fact Sheet

Luxembourg in the Region


Luxembourg0.5%

Germany29.0%

France21.3%

Italy16.1%

Spain10.6%

Other22.5%

Luxembourg0.2%

Germany24.3%

France19.2%

Italy18.0%

Spain14.0%

Other24.2%

U.S.A.8.3% Other EU-

277.3%

Belgium30.9%

Germany23.4%

France10.3%

China7.2%

Other12.5%

Other EU-27

20.9%

Germany20.6%

France15.5%

Belgium14.8%

Other28.2%

Other8.2%


Ores & Metals7.6%

Mineral Fuels11.0%

Food10.5%

Other7.0%


Ores & Metals5.4%

Food8.5%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

0

20

40

60

80

1002004-06 2007-09 2010-12

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002004-06 2007-09 2010-12

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• Strong financial sector• Current account surplus• Low public debt levels • Ageing population• High living standards

• Small open economy sensitive to external demand shocks


Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: Aaa StableS&P: AAA StableFitch Ratings: AAA Stable


Transportation (2013) Airports: 2Railways (km): 275Roadways (km): 2,899Waterways (km): 37Chief Ports: Mertert

Official name: Grand Duchy of Luxembourg

Capital: Luxembourg (0.5m)Area (km2): 2,586Population (million, 2014 est.): 0.5Population density (per km2, 2014): 212Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 1.1Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 80.0Illiteracy rate (%, 2003): 0.0Language: Luxembourgish,

German and FrenchMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT+1

Prime Minister: Xavier BettelLast elections: 20 October 2013Next elections: Before October 2018Central Bank Governor: Gaston Reinesch

FOCUSECONOMICS Malta


April 2015

MaltaMalta continues to prove to be a European success story. GDP data

published in March show an expansion of 4.0% in Q4 2014 compared to the same period in 2013. Full year 2014 GDP came in at 3.6%. Gross capital formation was the biggest force behind the expansion and shot up 27.9% annually in Q4. Moreover, the external sector received a boost in March when Maltese foreign minister George Vella and his Turkish counterpart held a meeting aimed at strengthening bilateral, political and economic ties. This includes expanding the Maltese–Turkish trade volume and investment, as well as initiating a joint economic and commercial cooperation committee that will be established later this year.

The Maltese economy is in good shape due to its relative diversity and its stable financial sector. However, the economy is expected to decelerate somewhat this year compared to 2014. Panelists expect the economy to expand 2.8% this year, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. The panel sees GDP growth at 2.5% in 2016.

HICP inflation inched down from 0.8% in January to 0.6% in February. Panelists see inflation averaging 1.1% in 2015 and 1.6% in 2016.

Outlook stable


Robert HillEconomist

Malta







-3.5

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5


2015 2016

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

Malta

Euro area

0

2

4

6

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

MaltaEuro area

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.0


2015 2016

-5

0

5

10

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

MaltaEuro areaWorld

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0


2015 2016

2008-10 2011-13 2014-16Population (million): 0.4 0.4 0.4GDP (EUR bn): 6.3 7.2 8.3GDP per capita (EUR): 15,300 17,293 19,583GDP growth (%): 1.4 2.5 2.9Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -3.6 -3.0 -2.1Public Debt (% of GDP): 66.0 69.2 69.8Inflation (%): 2.8 2.2 1.1Current Account (% of GDP): -6.5 1.4 2.1



April 2015






Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2016 unless otherwise stated. All data are from the Central Bank of Malta (BCM, Bank Centrali ta’ Malta), National Statistics Office of Malta (NSO) and Eurostat. See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: NSO.2 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: Eurostat.3 Inflation, annual average variation of harmonized index of consumer

prices (HICP) in %. Source: Eurostat.4 GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP, evolution of 2015

and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.6 Inflation, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18

months.7 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: NSO.8 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: NSO.9 Unemployment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18



5.7

5.9

6.1

6.3


2015 2016

5

7

9

11

13

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

MaltaEuro area

0.2

0.6

1.0

1.4

1.8

2.2


2015 2016

-15

-10

-5

0

5

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

MaltaEuro area

Annual Data 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Real Sector Population (million) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4GDP per capita (EUR) 14,180 15,022 14,937 15,942 16,610 17,287 17,983 18,865 19,537 20,345GDP (EUR bn) 5.8 6.1 6.1 6.6 6.9 7.2 7.6 8.0 8.3 8.6Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in%) 6.9 6.5 0.2 7.5 4.4 4.8 4.8 5.2 3.8 4.1Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 4.0 3.4 -2.5 3.5 2.2 2.6 2.7 3.6 2.8 2.5Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 0.7 -0.2 1.8 -0.2 2.5 0.8 1.6 3.4 2.4 2.2Government Consumption (annual var. in %) 0.9 12.3 -3.3 1.6 2.8 6.0 -0.2 7.3 - -Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) 5.6 -9.2 -11.8 26.4 -18.0 -0.9 2.7 14.0 3.7 3.6Exports (G&S, annual variation in %) 10.9 19.4 -0.4 6.9 2.5 6.4 -1.0 -0.2 3.4 3.4Imports (G&S, annual variation in %) 8.1 19.5 0.3 7.6 -0.4 4.9 -1.1 0.1 3.4 3.4Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 6.5 6.1 6.9 6.9 6.5 6.4 6.5 5.9 5.9 5.8Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -2.3 -4.2 -3.3 -3.3 -2.6 -3.7 -2.7 -2.5 -2.1 -1.7Public Debt (% of GDP) 62.4 62.7 67.8 67.6 69.8 67.9 69.8 70.6 70.0 68.9Monetary and Financial Sector Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, eop) 3.1 5.0 -0.4 4.0 1.5 2.8 1.0 0.4 - -Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, aop) 0.7 4.7 1.8 2.0 2.5 3.2 1.0 0.8 1.1 1.6ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 4.00 2.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.75 0.25 0.05 0.05 0.053-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) 4.68 2.89 0.70 1.01 1.36 0.19 0.29 0.08 0.03 0.06Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.46 1.39 1.43 1.34 1.30 1.32 1.38 1.21 1.04 1.07Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, aop) 1.37 1.47 1.39 1.33 1.39 1.29 1.33 1.33 1.08 1.06External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -3.9 -4.9 -8.3 -6.4 -1.8 2.9 3.1 2.5 2.0 1.9Current Account Balance (EUR bn) -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2Trade Balance (EUR bn) -0.9 -1.2 -1.1 -1.2 -1.1 -1.7 -1.7 -2.6 - -



April 2015

Fact Sheet

Malta in the Region


Malta0.0%

Germany28.7%

France21.3%Italy

16.1%

Spain10.6%

Other23.2%

Malta0.1%

Germany24.3%

France19.2%

Italy18.0%

Spain14.0%

Other24.3%

Other EU-27

18.0%

Italy39.2%

U.K.7.3%

France7.3%

Asia ex-Japan9.2%

Other19.1%

Other EU-27

12.0%

Germany14.9%

France12.3%

Italy7.2%

Other53.7%

Other0.9%


Mineral Fuels40.5%

Food9.7%

Other5.8%


Mineral Fuels43.4%

Trade Structure



Economic Structure


Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1202003-05 2006-08 2009-11

Net Exports

Investment


PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002002-04 2005-07 2008-10

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data


Political Data



• Lack of natural resources

• Healthy financial sector

• Manufacturing sector turned towards high value-added industries

• Weak diversification of trade partners

Energy (2012)Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 81Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 2.1Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 1.9Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 0.0Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 39.3CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 6.6

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: A3 StableS&P: BBB+ StableFitch Ratings: A Stable


Transportation (2013) Airports: 1.0Railways (km): -Roadways (km): 3,096Waterways (km): -Chief Ports: Marsaxlokk, Valletta

Official name: Republic of MaltaCapital: Valletta (0.4m)Area (km2): 316Population (million, 2014 est.): 0.4Population density (per km2, 2014): 1,335Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 0.3Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 80.1Illiteracy rate (%, 2010): 7.2Language: Maltese, EnglishMeasures: Metric systemTime: GMT+1

Prime Minister: Joseph MuscatLast elections: 9 March 2013Next elections: March 2018Central Bank Governor: Josef Bonnici

FOCUSECONOMICS


April 2015

Notes and Statements

PUBLICATION NOTE

Consensus forecasts are mean averages of projections of economic forecasters surveyed by FocusEconomics for our monthly publication. Quarterly averages may not correspond to the annual figures due to different forecast panels.

The GDP-weighted averages for the world refer to economies surveyed by FocusEconomics on a monthly basis, and include the following countries and regions, comprising more than 90% of total global output:

G7 (Group of Seven, 7 countries): Canada, Japan, United Kingdom and United States; France, Germany and Italy are also Euro area countries.Euro area (18 countries): Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain.Nordic Economies (5 countries): Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Iceland. Finland is also a Euro area member.Eastern Europe (14 countries): Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine; Estonia, Latvia, Slovakia and Slovenia are also Euro area members.MENA (Middle East and North Africa, 16 countries): Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates and Yemen.Asia-Pacific (17 countries): Australia, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam.Latin America (23 countries): Argentina, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Puero Rico, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay and Venezuela.Additional Countries: Switzerland and South Africa.

Weights are based on market exchange rates and reflect the latest forecasts on GDP growth, inflation and exchange rates.

BRIC (4 countries): Brazil, Russia, India, and China. The term was coined by Goldman Sachs in November 2001 and has since been widely adopted in investment and finance.

COPYRIGHT NOTE

© Copyright 2015 FocusEconomics S.L. Duplication, reproduction, transmission, publication or redistribution in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, or otherwise without prior written consent of FocusEconomics S.L. is strictly prohibited. Please cite source when quoting. All rights reserved under International Copyright Conventions.

The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast – Euro Area is a monthly publication of FocusEconomics. Communications to the Editor or FocusEconomics in general should be addressed as follows:

FocusEconomics S.L.Gran Via 657E-08010 BarcelonaSpaintel: +34 932 651 040fax: +34 932 650 804e-mail: [email protected] web: http://www.focus-economics.com

DISCLOSURE STATEMENT

The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast – Euro Area (“Forecast”) is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable. FocusEconomics and the participating panelists (“Information Providers”) do not guarantee that the information supplied in the Forecast is accurate, complete or timely. The Information Providers do not make any warranties with regard to the results obtained from the Forecast. The Information Providers are not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for any injuries or damages resulting from the use of this information, including incidental and consequential damages. Recipients should not regard the Forecast as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgement. The recommendations made in the Forecast may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. The Forecast has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation of any transaction or an offer to enter into any transaction. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice and the Information Providers are under no obligation to update the information contained herein.

Notes

ASIA PACIFIC |

CENTRAL AMERICA |& CARIBBEAN |

EASTERN EUROPE|

EURO AREA |

LATIN AMERICA|

MAJOR ECONOMIES |

MIDDLE EAST| & NORTH AFRICA|

NORDIC ECONOMIES|

Brunei, China, Cambodia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam, Australia & New Zealand

Belize, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico and Trinidad & Tobago

Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey & Ukraine

Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia & Spain

Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay & Venezuela

G7 countries (United States, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, France, Eurozone, Germany & Italy); BRIC overview (Brazil, Russia, India & China); Switzerland

Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, Yemen; South Africa

Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast reports cover economic forecasts for over 1,600 unique indicators in 95 countries. Every monthly report includes the Consensus Forecast for each indicator covered. The Consensus Forecast, based on an average of the forecasts provided by the most reputable economic research authorities in the world, is the one number you can rely on to make important business decisions.

REGIONS & COUNTRIES COVERED

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