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Climate Change and Methane Emissions: Using Integrated Analysis Tools to Advise Policy
Marcus C. Sarofim
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Overview
• Climate Change Background – The Science – The Politics
• The Role of Methane – Conventional Wisdom – Research results (political, economic, and
scientific) – Policy recommendation: decouple CO2 from
CH4 policy
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The Earth’s Radiative Balance
Emitted by Atmosphere
Absorbed by Atmosphere67
165
Incoming Solar Radiation
342 Wm-2
Atmospheric Window
40
30
235 342
Outgoing Longwave Radiation 235 Wm-2
Greenhouse Gases
324 Back Radiation
40350
390 Surface Radiation
Absorbed by Surface
324 Evapo-
transpiration
ThermalsAbsorbed by Surface
168 24 78
30
Reflected Solar
107 Wm-2 107
Reflected by Clouds, and Atmosphere
77
77
24 78
Reflected by Surface
30
Radiation
Latent Heat
Figure by MIT OCW, based on Kiehl and Trenberth 1997.
Radiative Forcing Components RF Terms
Long-lived
greenhouse gases
Ozone Stratospheric
Land use Black carbon on snow
Tropospheric
Halocarbons
CO2
CH4
N2O
RF values (Wm-2) Spatial scale LOSU
High
High
Med
Low
Low
Low
LowGlobal
Global
Global
Global1.66 [1.49 to 1.83]
0.48 [0.43 to 0.53] 0.16 [0.14 to 0.18] 0.34 [0.31 to 0.37]
-0.05 [-0.15 to 0.05] 0.35 [0.25 to 0.65]
0.07 [0.02 to 0.12]
-0.2 [-0.4 to 0.0]
-0.5 [-0.9 to -0.1]
-0.7 [-1.8 to -0.3]
0.01 [0.003 to 0.03]
0.12 [0.06 to 0.30]
0.1 [0.0 to 0.2]
Continental
Continental to global
Continental to global
Continental to global
Local to Continental
Med - Low
Med - Low
Stratospheric water Vapour from CH4
Surface albedo
Direct effect Total
Aerosol Cloud albedo effect
Linear contrails
Solar irradiance
Total net anthropogenic
N at
ur al
A nt
hr op
og en
ic
Radiative Forcing Wm-2 -2 -1 0 1 2
{
{
1.6 [0.6 to 2.4]1.6 [0.6 to 2.4]
Figure by MIT OCW, based on IPCC.
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Politics
• UN Framework Convention on Climate Change – Stabilization of Greenhouse Gases at a level avoiding
dangerous anthropogenic interference – No binding commitment
• Kyoto Protocol – “Annex B” nations have commitments in 2008-2012 – Multiple gases: CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6
• Cap and trade: using Global Warming Potentials
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Global Warming Potentials (GWPs)
∫ ∫=
dttCOa
dttxa xGWP
CO
x
)]([*
)]([* )(
22
EPPA, Kyoto, and US inventories all use IPCC 1996 100 year GWPs
IPCC TAR 20 year 100 year 500 year IPCC 1996 (100 year)
CO2 1 1 1 1
CH4 62 23 7 21
N2O 275 296 156 310
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Anthropogenic Emissions by GWP weight
GHG emissions, 2000 Total: 10.3 GtC eq.
CO2
CH4
N2O
(emissions data from the MIT EPPA model)
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Methane: Arguments against GWP based Trading • Conventional Wisdom
– Capture “What” flexibility by trading among GHGs • Results of this study
– CO2 constraints have negative interactions with economic distortions
– Methane is undervalued for reasons of chemistry and timing
– Methane emission inventories are much less accurate than fossil CO2 emission inventories
– Methane constraints are politically more palatable to developing nations
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