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The Power Grid of the FuturePowering the next-generation of electric vehicles | April 10

Presenter: Chris Robinson, Analyst, Lux Research

I need to buy a car…

2

… so should it be electric?

The quality and quantity of electric vehicles available today is

drastically better than ever before

3

2011 Nissan Leaf

MSRP: $32,780

Range: 84 miles

2018 Nissan Leaf

MSRP: $29,990

Range: 151 miles 050

100150200250300350400450500

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Price

pe

r m

ile o

f ra

ng

eSource: Lux Research Automotive Battery Tracker

EV Range is Cheaper

than Ever

These low-cost vehicles with more range are resonating with

consumers

4

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Vehic

le s

ale

s(u

nits)

Source: Lux Research Automotive Battery Tracker

Quarterly Plug-in

Vehicle Sales

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

These low-cost vehicles with more range are resonating with

consumers

5

Quarterly

vehicle

sales

Volkswagen accelerates push into

electric cars with $40 billion

spending plan

China moves towards banning the

internal combustion engine

Quarterly Plug-in

Vehicle Sales

… but I have range anxiety

6

930 miles

What is going to drive from a niche market to a

dominant technology?

7

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2035-2040

EV

“inflection

point”:

50% adoption

1.5% adoption

Survey: 85% cite lack

of charging as limiting

factor in buying EV

Range anxiety powers

China to invest in electric

car-charging points

For electric car owner,

‘range anxiety’ gives way

to ‘charging time trauma’

Ne

w c

ar

sa

les th

at a

re p

lug

-in

s

8

Agenda

1 | How is infrastructure alleviating range anxiety today?

2 | A new way of thinking about range anxiety

Solutions to range anxiety aim to quickly add energy to a

vehicle

9

Adding energy to the battery as quickly as

possible with fast-charging

Completely replacing a battery with another

one filled with energy

Fast-charging has emerged as the technology of choice for

quickly topping up range

10

Porsche’s Mission E will be the first vehicle compatible with 350 kW fast-charging

= X 250

11

Are these

solutions ideal in

a future of 175

million EVs on

the road?

CostIs the solution

affordable to

deploy?

ScalabilityWill the solution

face hurdles that

prevent it from

scaling?

SpeedHow quickly can

a solution add

range?

At the EV tipping point in 2040, fast-charging doesn’t meet most

needs to alleviate range anxiety

12

$-

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

120 kW 350 kW

Cost of installing a 6-stall

fast-charging station



13

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

50 kW 120kW

350kW

Global power

demand if all

chargers used (TW)

2017

Global

Capacity



Not very

affordable

$-

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

120 kW 350 kW

Not very

affordable



14

Range added in ten

minutes (miles)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

50 kW 120kW

350kW

Global power

demand if all

chargers used (TW)

2017

Global

Capacity



Not very

affordable

Not very

scalableNot very

fast

$-

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

120 kW 350 kW

Not very

affordable

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450 Fast enough

Could battery swapping be a long-term solution to long-

distance EV travel?

15

$-

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

Cost to install a battery

swapping station

?


distance EV travel?

16

$-

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

Operating costs make

scaling-up a challenge


swapping station

Not very

affordable

$5,500,000Cost of buying, charging,

and replacing battery

packs to support 500

swaps per day for 5 years


distance EV travel?

17

050

100150200250300350400450

Range added in five

minutes (miles)

$-

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000


swapping station

Could reach

parity with

gasoline

?

Operating costs make

scaling-up a challenge

Not very

affordable

$5,500,000Cost of buying, charging,

and replacing battery

packs to support 500

swaps per day for 5 years

Not very

scalable

18

Current approaches focus on adding range

quickly, but are not scalable or cost effective.

19

Agenda

1 | How is infrastructure alleviating range anxiety today?

2 | A new way of thinking about range anxiety

Today, Tesla’s Model S 100D offers the longest highway range

with just over 350 miles of range

20

If we can't quickly add energy during a trip,

why not add more energy before leaving?

Today’s EVs get me to Syracuse

21

EVs today

350 miles

5.25 hours

… but how far can the EV of 2040 take me?

22

Building the EV of 2040

Improved Batteries

The Tesla 100D becomes the 200D with no additional weight or volume

23


Improved Batteries


Examples:

Batteries can already exceed 400 Wh/kg

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

Solid-state

Lithium-sulfur

Lithium-air

Sodium-ion

Zinc-air

24


Improved Batteries


Batteries can already exceed 400 Wh/kg

Examples:

Patent publications/year by battery type

Better batteries can get me just past Cleveland

25

EVs today

Better

batteries

700 miles

10.5 hours

26


Vehicle Lightweighting

Removing 600 kg of weight adds about 180 miles of range

27



Carbon fiber prices are falling


28



Carbon fiber prices are falling


Beyond 2040, textiles could be

considered for vehicles

Lightweighting can get me into Indiana

29

EVs today

Lighter

materials

880 miles

13 hours

Better

batteries

30


Autonomy and Efficiency

More efficient motors and aerodynamics working in tandem with autonomy

increase efficiency by 15%

31



Source: Fuelly



Reported fuel efficiency (mpg)

Nu

mb

er

of d

rive

rs

Official rating for

Toyota Prius fuel

efficiency: 50mpg

32



Source: Fuelly



Reported fuel efficiency (mpg)

Nu

mb

er

of d

rive

rs

Official rating for

Toyota Prius fuel

efficiency: 50mpg

All of these technologies together can alleviate my range anxiety

33

EVs today

Lighter

materials

1,010 miles

15.5 hours

Efficiency

improvements

Better

batteries

Innovation interest is high in each of these technologies

34

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Solid-state batteriesY-axis: Summary of trends in patents, papers, funding, and more.

Automotive Light weightingY-axis: Summary of trends in patents, papers, funding, and more.

Self-driving carsY-axis: Summary of trends in patents, papers, funding, and more.

The 1,000 mile EV would have significant effects on vehicle

charging needs

35

Fast-charging and battery swapping aren’t long term

solutions

EVs still aren’t good enough, and tech innovation is still

important

Self-driving cars enable new business models that

threaten car ownership

www.luxresearchinc.com

[email protected]

@LuxResearch

Lux Research, Inc.

Lux Research

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Thank you for joining us.

Chris Robinson

857-284-5684

[email protected]

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