Future Planning in Power Grid

Future System Planning to Meet New Challenges

Stephen Lee

Senior Technical Executive Power Delivery & Utilization

June 17, 2009

10th International Workshop on Electric Power Control CentersDublin, Ireland

2© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Outline

• Holistic Power Supply and Delivery Chain – Foundations for a Smart Grid

• Holistic Planning

• Raising the Bar on Reliability Standards

• Key Messages

– Focus on Benefits to Cost Payback

– Consider all parts together (Holistic approach)

– Remove deficiencies in foundations

– Implement new solutions


EPRI Report on Holistic Power Supply and Delivery Chain (Report #1018587)

• Presented and used in Brainstorming session in support of NASPI (North America Synchro-Phasor Initiative), October 2008

• Presented at Carnegie Mellon Smart Grid Conference, March 2009

• Major building blocks to create real values from the Smart Grid of the future


End-uses & DR

Distribution SystemTransmission System

Energy Storage

Fuel Supply System

Fuel Source/Storage

Power Plants

Renewable Plants

Data CommunicationData Communication

Wide Area ControlWide Area Control

Sensors

Controllers

ZIP

M

Dynamic Load ModelsDynamic Power Plant Models

End-to-End Power Delivery Chain Operation & Planning

Monitoring, Modeling, Analysis, Coordination & ControlMonitoring, Modeling, Analysis, Coordination & Control


Foundations Need Strengthening

• End-to-End Situational Awareness

• Alarm Management and Real-Time Root-Cause Diagnosis

• Dynamic Models of all Generators and Loads

• Faster System Restoration

• System Integrity Protection Schemes

– Faster reflex actions on wide-area problems

– Measurement-based safety nets to prevent cascading blackouts, e.g., load shedding, islanding/separation, damping


New Solutions Are Needed

• Optimal end-to-end commitment and dispatch by ISO/RTO as backstop for system reliability

• Virtual Service Aggregators serving as Energy Balancing Authorities– Dispatch and control stochastic renewable generation– Dispatch and control (and own?) large scale energy storage

plants– Manage demand response proactively– Manage smart electric vehicle charging

• “Virtual” Vertically Integrated Utilities– Own/operate Generation/renewable/storage, some transmission,

& Virtual Service Aggregator– Interstate ownership and operation (overcome NIMBY-ism)

• National/Continental Backbone Transmission Grid– Holistic transmission planning– Virtual RTO– Transmission toll collection system

http://www.energypulse.net/centers/author.cfm?at_id=259


Potential Role of the Virtual Service Aggregator (Virtual Vertically Integrated Utility)

TraditionalCentral StationPower Plants

TraditionalCentral StationPower Plants

Large-ScaleRenewableResources

Large-ScaleRenewableResources

Large-ScaleEnergyStorage

Large-ScaleEnergyStorage

TransmissionGrid

TransmissionGrid

Real RegionalControl Center

Real RegionalControl Center

VirtualService

Aggregator

VirtualService

Aggregator

End Usesand

DistributedResources

End Usesand

DistributedResources

FinancialSettlement ofNet Difference

Power Flow

FinancialTransaction

LoadsLoads

PHEVsPHEVs

DistributedGeneration& Storage

DistributedGeneration& Storage

S


What is Holistic Planning?

• Holistic Planning is to develop a whole or a part of the electric power system, with full consideration of the WHOLE, responsive to the public, modeling all reasonably probable scenarios of uncertainties affecting planning as well as future power system operating conditions, with additional tests to assess the robustness of the system when exposed to “unlikely” but potentially devastating disturbances or other events, in order to achieve a system which has:

– Economic efficiency

– Adequate reliability

– Acceptable environmental impacts


Tier 1 Costs(Direct Costs)

Total Cost = Tier 1 Cost + Tier 2 Cost

* Best Decision

Tier 2 Costs (Public Good)

Decision is not optimal if Tier 2 costs are ignored

Optimal Decisions


Boundary Conditions

Transmission and GeneratorConnectivity and Topology

Power F

lows

–M

W

Lo

ad a

nd

Vo

ltag

e P

rofi

le

OperatingState – “You are here”

Inside Boundary Conditions

System OperatingLimits

Outside BoundaryConditions

Transmission and GeneratorConnectivity and Topology

Power F

lows

–M

W

Lo

ad a

nd

Vo

ltag

e P

rofi

le

OperatingState – “You are here”

Inside Boundary Conditions

System OperatingLimits

Outside BoundaryConditions

Lo

ad

Gener

atio

n Dis

patch


Boundary = N-2 Contingency Criteria

N-1 criteria enforce possibly uneven reliability

N-1


Holistic Transmission Planning

• White space is the inside of the CAR (community Activity Room) where operation is reliable

• Future growth requires operating outside the white space

• How do we expand the grid to fit all future operating conditions (described by the ellipse?)

• CAR gives the holistic answer by moving all necessary walls the right amount (increase capacities of line 1-4 by 2500 MW and 2-4 by 1200 MW)

Line 2-4

Line 1-4


NERC TPL-001-01 (Transmission System Planning Performance Requirements) “Raises the Bar”

• Draft 3 posted on 5/26/09 - Comments due 7/9/09

• Loss of Non-Consequential Load or interruption of firm transfers is no longer allowed for certain events (effects of cascading outages)

• May have significant budget, siting, permitting, and construction impacts on many Transmission Owners

• Submit standard(s) to NERC Board – 1Q2010

• Submit to regulatory authorities for approval – 1Q2010

Implications:

Need to study cascading outages

Need to assure system stability with sufficient confidence


Concept of an MRI of Power System Reliability Metrics

• Transmission Planners need a scanner of the entire power grid to identify the state of health of the whole power system

• Even seasoned planners lack a tool for an overview of the study results from the large volume of power flow study cases involving large number of planning scenarios and contingencies

• Very difficult to digest and analyze

• A MRI-like tool can be investigated conceptually in combination with visualization tools, using power flow cases as the input data


EPRI Research Projects Helpful for Meeting TPL-001-01

• Prediction and Online Risk Monitoring of Potential Cascading Modes

– ConEd, NYPA, Entergy, ISO New England, Exelon, AEP, FirstEnergy, TriState G&T

– Phase II

• Fast Fault Screening for Transient Stability

– Entergy, NYSERDA

– Phase II on system-wide stability screening

Unlikely events withunacceptableconsequences

Likely events withunacceptableconsequences

Unlikely events withacceptable

consequences

Likely events withacceptable

consequences

Risk

More Likely

More

Un

accep

tab

le

Normal Weather Risk Exposure to One Cascading ModeWith 1 Line on Maintenance Outage &

System (6750 MW Load) Not Compliant with N-1

Risk of Contingencies

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07

Probability of Contingency

Ove

rlo

ad /

Lo

ad S

hed

(M

W)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07

PRI = 150 MW

PRI = 90 MW

PRI = 50 MW

PRI = 25 MW

Initiating Event

Tier 1 Cascade

Tier 3 Cascade PRI = 200 MW

Tier 2 Cascade

Concept of Online Risk Monitor

Unacceptable Risk

Acceptable Risk

Storm Increases Risk Exposure to One Cascading ModeWith 1 Line on Maintenance Outage &

System (6750 MW Load) Not Compliant with N-1

Risk of Contingencies

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07

Probability of Contingency

Ove

rlo

ad /

Lo

ad S

hed

(M

W)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07

PRI = 150 MW

PRI = 90 MW

PRI = 50 MW

PRI = 25 MW

Initiating Event

Tier 1 Cascade

Tier 3 Cascade PRI = 200 MW

Tier 2 Cascade

Concept of Online Risk Monitor

Unacceptable Risk

Acceptable Risk


Conclusions

• Holistic Planning – works for central planning, free markets or mixed environment

• What is the optimal level of reliability?

• Key Messages for Smart Grid:

– Focus on Benefits to Cost Payback

– Consider all parts together (Holistic approach)

– Remove deficiencies in foundations

– Implement new solutions

THANK [email protected]

Future Planning in Power Grid

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