The Daft.ie House Price Report · residential sales market for 2018 Q4 - Year in Review The Daft.ie...

An analysis of recent trends in the Irish residential sales market for 2018 Q4 - Year in Review

The Daft.ie HousePrice Report

Introduction by Ronan Lyons, Assistant Professor at

Trinity College Dublin and author of the Daft Report.

The difference a year makes This commentary for the

Year in Review Daft.ie Sales Report will have a different tone to some of its immediate predecessors

Understandably, given the more than 50% increase

in sale prices countrywide in recent years, recent

end-of-year commentaries have been gloomy in

outlook. Last year’s review finished with a warning

that without the right policy response, “there could

be many more years of housing market angst

ahead”.

Of course, twelve short months can hardly

overturn a systematic failure of housing supply. The

mismatch between strong demand and weak supply

continues – as does the mismatch between what is

being built and what is needed.

But within that last fact lie some positive

developments for Ireland sales segment.

Construction activity has improved over the last

year. Over the course of 2018, the country is likely

to see about 18,000 new homes built, up from less

than 15,000 in 2017.

More supply should ease the problems in the

housing market. But of course not homes are equal.

If the country needs urban apartments and is

getting mostly rural one-offs, then the extra supply

will be of far less benefit than if urban apartments

were built.

And that, at risk of simplification, is what is

happening. Comparing the country’s housing

stock with its people, the country does not need

any more three- and four-bedroom family homes.

What it needs instead is homes for one- and two-

person households, especially in urban areas – i.e.

apartments.

But the uplift in construction has been dominated

by estate housing – three- and four-bedroom

family homes. Three quarters of the growth in

construction between mid-2017 and mid-2018 came

from estate housing. Almost all of that is housing

built for sale to owner-occupiers, rather than for the

rental sector.

And this has had an impact on the trends in the

sales market. Perhaps the most notable trend in

the sales market right now is the extraordinary

growth in availability of homes for sale, especially in

Dublin (where construction is concentrated). Two

years ago, at the end of 2016, there were fewer than

2,800 homes for sale in the Dublin market. Now, in

December 2018, there are over 4,800.

This trend of greater availability has started to

spread, too. In Leinster (outside Dublin), availability

is up from 5,000 a year ago to 6,000 today.

Elsewhere in the country, the picture is more about

Ronan Lyons, Assistant Professor in Economics, TCD

The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2018 Q4 - Year in Review | 2

Market SurveyEach quarter, Daft.ie surveys over 1,000 property market participants, asking them about their sense of the market as a whole, and their own intentions. Below are some of the headline results.

Expected house price inflation reaches five-year low

The expected change in house prices over the coming 12 months currently stands at 2.3% nationally, down from a peak of 6.6% in 2017. In Dublin, expected inflation over the coming 12 months is now 3.3%, its lowest value since early 2016.

Expected price change over next 12 months

Price-to-income ratio stable

The planned housing price-to-income ratio was 4.9 among survey respondents in the final quarter of 2018, above the previous high of 4.7 recorded in mid-2017. In Dublin, the average ratio was 5.0, the third time in the last six quarters that it was at least five in the capital.

Planned house price-to-income ratio

Fall in those holding back due to deposits

The fraction of respondents stating that the need to save for a deposit was a factor behind delaying house purchase was just over 50% in late 2018. This is down from a high over 60% for the period from mid-2016 to mid-2017.

Is housing good value currently?

Q22017

Q12017

Q42016

Q32016

Q22016

Q12016

Q12015

Q12014

Q12013

Q12012

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018

National Dublin Ex-Dublin National Dublin Ex-Dublin

0%

10%

20%

50%

60%

70%

80%

-15%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Q22017

Q12017

Q42016

Q32016

Q22016

Q12016

Q42015

Q42014

Q42013

Q42012

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018

-10%

20%

-20%Q2

2017 Q1

2017 Q4

2016Q3

2016 Q2

2016 Q1

2016 Q1

2015 Q1

2014 Q1

2013 Q1

2012 Q3

2017 Q4

2017 Q1

2018

National Dublin Ex-Dublin

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

Q22017

Q12017

Q42016

Q32016

Q22016

Q12016

Q12015

Q12014

Q12013

Q12012

1.0

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018

Q22017

Q12017

Q42016

Q32016

Q12016

Q12016

Q42015

Q22014

Q42013

Q42012

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018

Q22018

Q32018

Q22018

Q32018

Q22018

Q32018

Q42018 30%

40%

Q22017

Q12017

Q42016

Q32016

Q22016

Q12016

Q12015

Q12014

Q12013

Q12012

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018


0%

10%

20%

50%

60%

70%

80%

-15%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Q22017

Q12017

Q42016

Q32016

Q22016

Q12016

Q42015

Q42014

Q42013

Q42012

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018

-10%

20%

-20%Q2

2017 Q1

2017 Q4

2016Q3

2016 Q2

2016 Q1

2016 Q1

2015 Q1

2014 Q1

2013 Q1

2012 Q3

2017 Q4

2017 Q1

2018


1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

Q22017

Q12017

Q42016

Q32016

Q22016

Q12016

Q12015

Q12014

Q12013

Q12012

1.0

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018

Q22017

Q12017

Q42016

Q32016

Q12016

Q12016

Q42015

Q22014

Q42013

Q42012

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018

Q22018

Q32018

Q22018

Q32018

Q22018

Q32018

Q42018 30%

40%

Q22017

Q12017

Q42016

Q32016

Q22016

Q12016

Q12015

Q12014

Q12013

Q12012

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018


0%

10%

20%

50%

60%

70%

80%

-15%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Q22017

Q12017

Q42016

Q32016

Q22016

Q12016

Q42015

Q42014

Q42013

Q42012

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018

-10%

20%

-20%Q2

2017 Q1

2017 Q4

2016Q3

2016 Q2

2016 Q1

2016 Q1

2015 Q1

2014 Q1

2013 Q1

2012 Q3

2017 Q4

2017 Q1

2018


1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

Q22017

Q12017

Q42016

Q32016

Q22016

Q12016

Q12015

Q12014

Q12013

Q12012

1.0

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018

Q22017

Q12017

Q42016

Q32016

Q12016

Q12016

Q42015

Q22014

Q42013

Q42012

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018

Q22018

Q32018

Q22018

Q32018

Q22018

Q32018

Q42018 30%

40%


stabilisation after many years of dwindling stock.

This is a world away from the rental sector, where

availability is at record and continues to worsen

Unsurprisingly, with greater supply, the bargaining

power of buyers improves and prices increases

have slowed down. The annual rate of inflation in list

prices for Dublin in 2018 was 2.9%, down from 11.7%

a year ago. Outside Dublin, as you might guess from

stable rather than improving supply, inflation has

levelled off rather than cooled: increases of 7.3% in

2018 compared to 7.4% in 2017.

Looking ahead to 2019 and indeed to 2020, what

does the market have in store? 2018 was the year

that sales and rental segments detached. For

roughly five years, there had been a common trend

of acute supply shortages that characterised both

segments. That has given way in the sales market

to one of steadily improving supply, relieving the

upward pressure on prices.

And more is to come. Suppose, on average, it takes

18 months to go from planning permissions to

occupied units on new housing estates. The 8,500

or so units planned in the year to mid-2017 became

the new homes completed during 2018. Over 2019

and 2020, we are likely to see that number rise well

above 10,000 new estate homes completed in a

year. The focus will switch, in the sales segment,

from supply shortages to the capacity of the

mortgage market to process the new homeowners.

Unfortunately, no such relief is coming down the

tracks in the rental segment – or indeed the third

main component of the housing system, social

housing. In both of those segments, the system

needs to increase at least by a factor of ten. That

won’t happen on its own and thus it is those two

segments where policymakers need to focus now.

3 | The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2018 Q4 - Year in Review

Cork City€275,703 | 5.8%

Limerick City€194,214 | 9.8%

Galway City€290,528 | 6.3%

Waterford City€174,879 | 8.6%

NationwideAverage asking prices and Y-on-Y change

DublinAverage asking prices and Y-on-Y change

North County€311,916 | 1.5%

South County€591,096 | 4.8%

West County€300,842 | -1.1%

South City€407,404 | 3.2%

City Centre€330,683 | 4.7%

North City€337,594 | 2.5%

MN€169,3053.1%

CN€156,6209.1%

WH€200,4559.4%

LD€136,9956.5%

LH€215,2744.6%

MH€262,2686.6%

KE€261,9064.7%

WW€333,8046.4%

WX€206,7797.3%

CW€189,7459.0%

KK€220,9786.8%

LS€176,75312.0%

OY€186,72510.0%

G€197,7917.4%

MO€154,28410.4%

SO€138,1645.5%

DL€143,5154.4%

RN€138,9087.5%

LM€134,63712.0%

CE€183,33911.4%

T€177,19911.1%

L€189,21811.4%

C€220,1736.3%

KY€192,6577.9%

W€217,9777.4%

Prices up 55% from their lowest pointNationally, the average asking price reached its lowest point

in the third quarter of 2013 and has risen 54.6% - or almost

€90,000 - since then. In Dublin, prices reached their lowest

point in the second quarter of 2012 and have risen by an

average of 68% - or €150,000 - since that time. In Dublin 7,

8 and 10, prices have doubled in that time. The increase in

prices has been smallest in Donegal, where price bottomed

out in early 2014 and have since risen by 26%.

The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2018 Q4 - Year in Review | 65 | The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2018 Q4 - Year in Review

€254KAverage List Price Nationwide

Daft.ie List Price Index

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

January 213.8 212.9 184.5 151.6 128.2 105.6 96.8 99.9 112.8 122.1 134.1 143.4

February 215.8 212.3 180.9 150.3 128.1 104.5 96.1 99.3 117.6 122.9 135.6 145.8

March 214.8 209.6 177.4 146.7 125.3 102.9 96.6 103.3 119.1 125.7 135.8 146.0

April 216.5 208.1 174.7 146.6 121.8 101.7 96.6 104.5 118.7 125.0 140.6 148.4

May 217.5 205.7 171.0 145.0 120.1 102.2 97.0 107.2 119.4 126.0 141.9 149.2

June 217.1 203.4 167.7 141.8 116.1 99.5 97.5 107.9 118.2 127.8 140.6 149.3

July 219.2 202.3 165.1 138.0 115.4 97.8 96.5 109.9 120.3 128.9 141.4 151.4

August 217.5 199.6 161.2 137.6 113.1 98.9 97.0 111.2 120.4 130.1 142.0 149.7

September 215.8 198.1 159.2 136.5 113.3 97.1 96.7 112.9 121.5 130.9 141.0 151.4

October 214.8 193.7 156.4 134.0 108.7 97.9 97.2 110.5 120.6 128.7 141.8 150.6

November 212.4 188.2 152.3 130.9 106.0 95.8 96.9 110.0 119.5 129.0 139.2 147.1

December 213.5 186.3 150.9 129.8 106.0 96.0 96.2 111.1 119.8 131.0 143.3 149.8

Asking Prices, Residential Sales(2012 average = 100)


Inflation eases to 5.5%The annual rate of increase in list prices, nationally, was 5.5%in the final quarter of 2018, the lowest rate recorded sinceearly 2014.

End-of-year quarterly falls again

Prices in the final three months of 2018 were 1.1% lower than three months previously, the fifth year in a row list prices have eased back at year-end.

Munster sees largest rises

Prices in Clare, Limerick and Tipperary are more than 10% higher than a year previously - with Munster (outside the cities) seeing the largest increases in the country.

Stock available up over 10%

There were just over 23,500 properties available for sale nationwide on December 1, almost 11% higher than a year previously - the first time stock at year end has been up in a decade.

Stock of properties on Daft.ie (start of month) and flow of properties, 2007-2018

Stock (lhs) Inflow (rhs) Outflow (rhs)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2008 2007

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

2017 2018 Q3


The Daft.ie Asking Price Index is based on asking prices for properties posted for sale on Daft.ie. An index based on asking price, as opposed to closing price, is a measure of sellers’ expectations. Figures are calculated from econometric regressions, which calculate changes in price that are independent of changes in observable measures of quality, such as location, or bedroom number.

Daft.ie Snapshot ofAsking Prices Nationwide Average asking prices across Ireland (€000s), and annual change (%), 2018 Q4

The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2018 Q4 - Year in Review | 1211 | The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2018 Q4 - Year in Review

LEIN

STER

MU

NST

ERCO

NN

ACH

TU

LSTE

R

OTH

ER C

ITIE

S

1 bed apartment 2 bed terraced 3 bed semi-d 4 bed bungalow 5 bed detached

Dublin 1 €223 4.8% €330 4.1% €428 0.6% €589 1.3% €746 -2.0%

Dublin 2 €324 2.5% €435 1.2% €541 -6.4% €756 -6.0% €920 -3.7%

Dublin 3 €257 10.1% €365 6.7% €474 2.0% €703 4.4% €864 1.0%

Dublin 4 €304 -2.0% €455 1.8% €673 1.5% €1,050 0.2% €1,234 -7.0%

Dublin 5 €201 13.3% €279 11.4% €376 2.1% €605 7.8% €673 -4.8%

Dublin 6 €351 15.3% €487 13.3% €657 3.9% €1,056 9.7% €1,176 -3.1%

Dublin 6W €273 12.1% €379 10.2% €511 1.0% €822 6.7% €915 -5.8%

Dublin 7 €224 12.6% €310 10.7% €419 1.4% €673 7.1% €750 -5.4%

Dublin 8 €229 14.4% €318 12.5% €429 3.1% €690 8.9% €768 -3.9%

Dublin 9 €210 14.3% €291 12.4% €392 3.0% €631 8.8% €702 -4.0%

Dublin 10 €142 16.4% €196 14.4% €265 4.9% €426 10.8% €475 -2.2%

Dublin 11 €161 12.9% €223 11.0% €301 1.7% €484 7.4% €539 -5.1%

Dublin 12 €186 13.9% €258 12.0% €348 2.6% €559 8.4% €623 -4.3%

Dublin 13 €208 13.2% €288 11.3% €388 2.0% €625 7.7% €696 -4.9%

Dublin 14 €268 15.5% €372 13.5% €502 4.0% €807 9.9% €899 -3.0%

Dublin 15 €164 12.0% €227 10.1% €307 0.9% €493 6.6% €549 -5.9%

Dublin 16 €225 11.3% €312 9.4% €422 0.2% €678 5.9% €755 -6.5%

Dublin 17 €138 6.5% €191 4.7% €258 -4.1% €415 1.3% €462 -10.6%

Dublin 18 €254 14.8% €352 12.8% €475 3.4% €765 9.2% €851 -3.6%

Dublin 20 €190 15.7% €264 13.7% €356 4.2% €573 10.1% €638 -2.8%

Dublin 22 €135 11.9% €187 10.0% €253 0.8% €406 6.5% €452 -6.0%

Dublin 24 €146 13.9% €202 12.0% €272 2.6% €438 8.4% €488 -4.3%

North Co Dublin €163 11.6% €227 9.7% €306 0.6% €492 6.2% €547 -6.2%

South Co Dublin €300 15.3% €416 13.3% €561 3.9% €903 9.7% €1,005 -3.1%

West Dublin €155 9.7% €215 7.8% €291 -1.2% €467 4.3% €520 -7.9%

Cork City €122 15.6% €163 9.0% €239 2.8% €394 3.5% €473 1.1%

Galway City €119 15.1% €158 8.5% €232 2.4% €383 3.1% €460 0.6%

Limerick City €89 19.5% €118 12.7% €174 6.3% €287 7.0% €344 4.5%

Waterford City €77 18.7% €103 11.9% €151 5.6% €249 6.3% €299 3.8%

1 bed apartment 2 bed terraced 3 bed semi-d 4 bed bungalow 5 bed detached

Meath €107 18.0% €142 13.0% €190 5.2% €368 9.9% €384 2.1%

Kildare €113 15.7% €150 10.8% €201 3.2% €388 7.8% €406 0.1%

Wicklow €142 17.5% €189 12.6% €252 4.8% €488 9.4% €510 1.7%

Louth €95 15.9% €126 11.0% €168 3.4% €325 7.9% €339 0.3%

Longford €53 17.6% €70 12.6% €93 4.9% €180 9.5% €188 1.8%

Offaly €76 21.9% €101 16.8% €134 8.7% €260 13.5% €272 5.5%

Westmeath €82 21.0% €109 15.9% €146 7.9% €282 12.7% €294 4.7%

Laois €74 24.2% €99 19.0% €132 10.8% €255 15.7% €266 7.5%

Carlow €77 21.1% €103 16.0% €137 8.0% €265 12.8% €277 4.8%

Kilkenny €88 18.6% €117 13.6% €156 5.8% €301 10.5% €315 2.7%

Wexford €79 18.9% €105 14.0% €140 6.1% €271 10.8% €283 3.0%

Waterford Co €88 21.4% €107 16.5% €145 4.9% €285 7.2% €290 4.5%

Kerry €76 22.1% €94 17.2% €126 5.5% €248 7.8% €253 5.1%

Cork Co €90 19.8% €111 14.9% €149 3.5% €294 5.7% €299 3.1%

Clare €76 25.2% €93 20.2% €125 8.2% €246 10.5% €250 7.8%

Limerick Co €73 26.0% €89 20.9% €121 8.9% €237 11.2% €241 8.4%

Tipperary €72 25.4% €88 20.4% €119 8.4% €234 10.7% €238 7.9%

Galway Co €63 4.3% €87 9.9% €116 -1.0% €229 5.9% €239 -3.5%

Mayo €55 6.7% €76 12.5% €101 1.3% €199 8.4% €208 -1.3%

Roscommon €46 3.6% €64 9.2% €85 -1.6% €167 5.2% €174 -4.2%

Sligo €53 2.1% €73 7.6% €97 -3.1% €191 3.7% €200 -5.6%

Leitrim €48 8.4% €66 14.2% €88 2.9% €172 10.1% €180 0.2%

Donegal €49 1.6% €68 7.0% €90 -3.6% €177 3.2% €185 -6.1%

Cavan €52 6.0% €72 11.7% €96 0.6% €189 7.6% €197 -2.0%

Monaghan €59 -0.1% €82 5.2% €109 -5.2% €214 1.4% €224 -7.6%

DU

BLIN

DublinFirst year-on-year falls

2017 2018

15,000 15,500 16,000 16,500 17,000 17,500 18,000 18,500 19,000

Year to 2018 Q3

Year to 2017 Q3

Number of residential property transactions


West Dublin fallsPrices in West Dublin are 1.1% lower than a year previously,

the first annual fall in a major Dublin region since early 2016.

Late-year fallIn all six major regions of the city, prices fell back

between September and December - by 1.4% on

average.

North CityAverage price: €337,594Qtr-on-qtr change: -1.2%Year-on-year change: 2.5%Change from trough: 71.3%

City CentreAverage price: €330,683Qtr-on-qtr change: -1.8%Year-on-year change: 4.7%Change from trough: 97.2%

South CityAverage price: €407,404Qtr-on-qtr change: -1.2%Year-on-year change: 3.2%Change from trough: 67.5%

North CountyAverage price: €311,916

Qtr-on-qtr change: -1.1%Year-on-year change: 1.5%

Change from trough: 53.0%

West CountyAverage price: €300,842

Qtr-on-qtr change: -1.8%Year-on-year change: -1.1%Change from trough: 61.9%

South CountyAverage price: €591,096



Dublin City Centre North Dublin City South Dublin City North County Dublin South County Dublin West County Dublin

€650,000

€600,000

€550,000

€500,000

€450,000

€400,000

€350,000

€300,000

€250,000

€200,000

€150,000

Average house price by area, 2006-2018.

€700,000

Q12006

Q12007

Q12008

Q12009

Q12010

Q12011

Q12012

Q12013

Q12014

Q12015

Q12016

Q12017

Q12018

Q42018

€750,000

How have house prices changed?


Huge increase in stockThere were just over 4,800 properties for sale in

Dublin in December, up 40% on the same time last

year.

12% growth in transactionsThere were 18,600 transactions in the year to

September 2018, up 12% on the year to September

2017.

LeinsterFalls in 9 of 11 counties


1.3% fall in Q4After three quarters of growth, prices fell back in the

final quarter of the year in nine of the 11 counties -

with only Westmeath and Carlow (just) bucking the

trend.

Annual inflation still highDespite falling back September to December, inflation

remain high, with prices in the province 6.8% higher

than a year ago.

2017 2018

13,000 13,200 13,400 13,600 13,800 14,000 14,200 14,400 14,600


Year to 2018 Q3

Year to 2017 Q3

LouthAverage Price: €215,274Qtr-on-qtr change: -2.0%Year-on-year change: 4.6%Change from trough: 68.8%

MeathAverage Price: €262,268Qtr-on-qtr change: -1.5%Year-on-year change: 6.6%Change from trough: 74.7%

KildareAverage Price: €261,906Qtr-on-qtr change: -1.2%Year-on-year change: 4.7%Change from trough: 67.0%

WicklowAverage Price: €333,804Qtr-on-qtr change: -1.8%Year-on-year change: 6.4%Change from trough: 64.2%

WexfordAverage Price: €206,779Qtr-on-qtr change: -1.6%Year-on-year change: 7.3%Change from trough: 65.5%

LongfordAverage Price: €136,995



WestmeathAverage Price: €200,455Qtr-on-qtr change: 0.1%

Year-on-year change: 9.4%Change from trough: 69.8%

OffalyAverage Price: €186,725

Qtr-on-qtr change: -1.1%Year-on-year change: 10.0%Change from trough: 54.6%

LaoisAverage Price: €176,753


KilkennyAverage Price: €220,978



CarlowAverage Price: €189,745Qtr-on-qtr change: 0.2%

Year-on-year change: 9.0%From trough: 62.1%

Dublin Commuter Counties West Leinster South-East Leinster

€400,000

€350,000

€300,000

€250,000

€200,000

€150,000

€100,000

€50,000


Q12006

Q12007

Q12008

Q12009

Q12010

Q12011

Q12012

Q12013

Q12014

Q12015

Q12016

Q12017

Q12018

Q42018



Stock up one-fifthThere were over 5,900 properties for sale in Leinster

in December, a 20% increase on the same date in

2017 - by far the largest increase seen this decade.



2017.

MunsterYear-end falls


Falls follow risesPrices in rural Munster rose very strongly in Q3 (by

5.5%) - but eased back by 1.5% in the final three

months of the year.

Urban increasesMunster’s three cities were among the very few

markets that saw prices rise in the final three months

of the year, with increases greatest in Limerick (1.5%).

2017 2018

12,600 12,800 13,000 13,200 13,400 13,600 13,800 14,000 14,200


Year to 2018 Q3

Year to 2017 Q3

TipperaryAverage Price: €177,199Qtr-on-qtr change: -0.7%Year-on-year change: 11.1%Change from trough: 39.3%

Limerick CityAverage Price: €194,214Qtr-on-qtr change: 1.5%Year-on-year change: 9.8%Change from trough: 63.5%

Waterford CountyAverage Price: €217,977Qtr-on-qtr change: -1.4%Year-on-year change: 7.4%Change from trough: 51.6%

Waterford CityAverage Price: €174,879Qtr-on-qtr change: 0.9%Year-on-year change: 8.6%Change from trough: 66.9%

ClareAverage Price: €183,339


Limerick CountyAverage Price: €189,218


KerryAverage Price: €192,657



Cork CountyAverage Price: €220,173



Cork CityAverage Price: €275,703Qtr-on-qtr change: 0.8%



Cork City Limerick City Waterford City Rest-of-Munster

Q12006

Q12007

Q12008

Q12009

Q12010

Q12011

Q12012

Q12013

Q12014

Q12015

Q12016

€400,000

€350,000

€300,000

€250,000

€200,000

€150,000

€100,000

€50,000


Q12017

Q12018

Q42018


Stock up 3%There were over 7,200 properties on the market in

Munster in December - almost 3% higher than a year

ago, the first time availability has risen since 2009.



2017.

Connacht/UlsterSecond quarterly fall


43% below 2008 Across the region as a whole, prices remain 43%

lower than the Celtic Tiger peak a decade ago -

although this varies from 24% below in Galway city to

50% in Sligo.

Prices down 0.4%After very strong price gains January to June, prices fell

back in both the third (0.9%) and fourth (0.4%) quarters of

2018.

2017 2018

8,000 8,100 8,200 8,300 8,400 8,500 8,600 8,700


Year to 2018 Q3

Year to 2017 Q3

8,800

LeitrimAverage Price: €134,637Qtr-on-qtr change: 1.7%Year-on-year change: 12.0%Change from trough: 56.7%

MonaghanAverage Price: €169,305Qtr-on-qtr change: -1.9%Year-on-year change: 3.1%Change from trough: 48.3%

CavanAverage Price: €156,620Qtr-on-qtr change: -1.1%Year-on-year change: 9.1%Change from trough: 52.5%

RoscommonAverage Price: €138,908Qtr-on-qtr change: 0.3%Year-on-year change: 7.5%Change from trough: 51.6%

DonegalAverage Price: €143,515



SligoAverage Price: €138,164



MayoAverage Price: €154,284Qtr-on-qtr change: 0.8%


Galway CityAverage Price: €290,528Qtr-on-qtr change: 0.8%


Galway CountyAverage Price: €197,791Qtr-on-qtr change: -0.9%




Galway City Connacht Ulster

€400,000

€350,000

€300,000

€250,000

€200,000

€150,000

€100,000

€50,000

0Q1

2006Q1

2007Q1

2008Q1

2009Q1

2010Q1

2011Q1

2012Q1

2013Q1

2014Q1

2015Q1

2016Q1

2017Q1

2018Q4

2018


Stock still fallingUnlike other parts of the country, the stock on the

market is still falling in Connacht-Ulster, with 5,600

homes on the market in December, down 3% year-

on-year.



2017.

Over the last number of years, Daft.ie has collected a vast amount of data on the Irish property market. Each year tens of thousands of properties for sale or rent are advertised on the site.

About the ReportThe goal of the Daft Report is to use this information to help all actors in the property market make informed decisions about buying and selling. In addition, because it is freely available, the Daft Report can help inform the media, the general public and policymakers about the latest developments in the property market.

This is the Daft.ie House Price Report, the partner to the Daft.ie Rental Report, which will be issuednext month. Together, they give house-hunters and investors more information to help them make their decisions. These twin reports mean that Daft is the only objective monitor of trends in both rental and sales markets on a quarterly basis, making the report an essential barometer for anyone with an interest in the Irish property market.

The Daft Report was first launched in 2005. It has already become the definitive barometer of the Irish rental market and is being used by the Central Bank, mortgage institutions, financial analysts and the general public alike. The Daft.ie House Price report is Ireland’s longest-running house price report, combining information from the Daft.ie archives with data from Ireland’s Residential Property Price Register.

Methodology and Sample SizeThe statistics are based on properties advertised on Daft.ie for a given period. The regressions used are hedonic price regressions, accounting for all available and measurable attributes of properties, with a Cooks Distance filter for outliers.

The average monthly sample size for sale properties is 5,000. Indices are based on standard methods, holding the mix of characteristics constant, with the annual average of 2012 used as the base.

About Daft.ieDaft.ie is Ireland’s largest propertywebsite with over 2.5 million unique visitors generating over 228 million page impressions each month.

DisclaimerThe Daft.ie Report is prepared from information that we believe is collated with care, but we do not make any statement as to its accuracy or completeness. We reserve the right to vary our methodology and to edit or discontinue the indices, snapshots or analysis at any time for regulatory or other reasons. Persons seeking to place reliance on any information contained in this report for their own or third party commercial purposes do so at their own risk.

CreditsEconomic Analysis: Ronan LyonsMarketing and Communications: Martin ClancyLayout and Design: William Tector


Coming next:

The Daft.ie Rental Report ,2018 Q4 - Year in Review.

The Daft.ie Rental Report will be published in early 2019 and will include a review of the performanceof Ireland’s rental market, plus all the usual indices, snapshots, trends and rental yield analysis, providing analysts, tenants, landlords, students and the public with the most up-to-date information on Ireland’s rental market.

All data is Copyright © Daft Media Limited. The information contained in this report may onlybe reproduced if the source is clearly credited. Please contact [email protected] for further information.

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